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1192. Report of the Conference on "Ukraine's European Choice and the Partnership with Poland and Italy"
- Author:
- Giovanni Gasparini
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), Italy's major international affairs think tank organised an international conference on “Ukraine's European Choice and the Partnership with Poland and Italy”, in cooperation with the Ukrainian and the Polish Embassies in Rome. The event took place in Rome on 22nd March 2000 and was supported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the NATO Office of Information and Press, the Office of the European Commission in Rome, and the Centre for European and International Studies and the Institute of International Relations, Kyiv.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, NATO, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Italy, and Rome
1193. The Paradox of Disconnected Coalitions
- Author:
- J. Steven Brams, A. Michael Jones, and Marc D. Kilgour
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Studies Association
- Abstract:
- The paradox of disconnected coalitions is that "disconnected" coalitions can arise from the "connected" (i.e., single-peaked) preferences of as few as five or six players. Two models of coalition formation are analyzed in which the paradox can occur, in both of which players coalesce when they all find each other mutually acceptable: Fallback (FB): Players seek coalition partners by descending lower and lower in their preferences until a majority coalition emerges. Build-Up (BU): Same as FB, except that when nonmajority subcoalitions form, they fuse into composite players, and the descent restarts.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
1194. Reassessing the Logic of Anarchy: Rationality versus Reflexivity
- Author:
- Ewan Harrison
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Studies Association
- Abstract:
- Drawing on the insights of constructivism and recent attempts to develop a liberal model of international relations, this paper compares neorealism, institutionalism and liberalism in terms of their competing conceptualisations of the composition and dynamics of the international system. It argues that prominent institutionalists have mistakenly interpreted neorealism as a rationalist model of the international system in order to develop their own arguments countering its central propositions. Rather than relying on rational actor assumptions, neorealism instead adopts a reflexive logic focusing on processes of identity construction and socialisation arising from the generative consequences of international anarchy. Thus whilst neorealism and liberalism differ fundamentally in terms of their assessment of the nature and long term consequences of international anarchy, they may actually be closer to each other in terms of their conceptualisation of system composition and dynamics than neorealism and institutionalism. On the basis of this argument, the paper rejects a 'linear' understanding of the relationship between neorealism, institutionalism and liberalism in which institutionalism is seen as providing the point of synthesis on a spectrum than runs between neorealism and liberalism. Instead, it proposes a 'triangular' understanding of the relationship between these three models of the international system in which the debates between neorealists and institutionalists constitute its rationalist leg, and debates between neorealists and liberals constitute its reflexivist leg. Understood in these terms, liberalism's focus on the generative consequences of international anarchy and the overall trajectory of identity construction and socialisation within the international system is likely to be more productive in the search for a general synthesis of competing theories of international relations than institutionalists' attempts to refine rationalist models.
- Topic:
- International Relations
1195. The Global Trend of Civil Politics: The World Handbook IV Project
- Author:
- J. Craig Jenkins, Zeynep Benderlioglu, and Charles Lewis Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Studies Association
- Abstract:
- Contemporary discussions of global civil politics provide wildly different pictures of contemporary trends. Some see the end of the Cold War as unleashing a series of ethnic wars, geno/politicides, state breakdowns, rising criminality and a gradual descent into civil chaos (Rosenau 1990; Crevald 1991; Kaplan 2000). Others proclaim an "end of history" with the spread of democracy, capitalism, social peace and growing civility (Fukuyama 1991). Paralleling the latter, some have advanced a “social movement society” thesis (Meyer and Tarrow 1998) arguing that the globalization of civil society has internationalized social movements and protest, creating new transnational social movements and the creation of a truly global civil society. In contrast, others see a narrowing of the civil order with new mini-nationalisms, spreading ethnic intolerance and the rise of new civilizational struggles (Huntington 1996).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Globalization, and Politics
1196. East Asia and the United States: Current Status and Five-Year Outlook
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The National Intelligence Council and the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress held a one-day unclassified conference on this topic on 17 February 2000, at the Thomas Jefferson Building of the Library of Congress. Seven papers by nongovernment specialists and 11 commentaries by Intelligence Community specialists examined: The likely development of greater divergence or convergence between key East Asian states and the United States over US policies and interests in the region. Whether divergence or convergence between East Asian states and the United States was more likely on security, economic, or political/values questions. In what ways East Asian states would be likely to collaborate in opposition to US policies and interests. Sixty US Intelligence Community, other Executive Branch, congressional, and nongovernment experts participated actively in discussions following the formal papers and commentaries, reinforcing the findings presented below.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and East Asia
1197. Patterns of Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in Africa—A simple test of the new trade theory with multinationals
- Author:
- Lars C. Svindal and Leo A. Grünfeld
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In this study, we present an empirical survey of the patterns of trade and FDI in Africa based on a sample of 28 countries and their transactions with the OECD countries. These patterns are used to test whether the predictions of the new trade theory with multinationals as described by Markusen and Venables (1995,1998) fit the development in Africa. The theory states that multinational production will gradually outgrow trade as countries converge in terms of income, yet our econometric study gives only week evidence supporting such a pattern. Alternative explanations are also investigated,and it is shown that trade barriers, geographical distance, income per capita and access to ocean explain much of the variation in trade and FDI in Africa.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1198. North Korea: How Much Reform and Whose Characteristics?
- Author:
- Heather Smith
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This paper is the first of a three part project on economic reform on the Korean Peninsula. In this first paper, I focus on the question which has been subject to considerable recent debate, namely whether collapse of North Korea is imminent. In accessing this question the paper discusses the three structural bottlenecks now thought to be severely constraining the North Korean economy following a series of external shocks in the late 1980s, food shortages, energy constraints and a limited capacity to earn foreign exchange. Much speculation has focused on the deterioration in the food economy and that a prolongation of current food shortages will see North Korea collapse. One contribution of this paper lies in its attempt to analyze North Korean agricultural production and food consumption patterns using data made available by North Korea to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization. Several anomalies are found between this data and recent World Food Program assessments of food conditions and estimates of nutritional requirements which suggest caution in drawing a too deterministic link between current food shortages and collapse. The paper then discusses the role of international and regional players in prolonging North Korea's economic survival. In particular, the terms under which North Korea signed onto the 1994 Agreed Framework, a return to favorable trading terms with China, and North Korea's attempts aimed at expanding economic ties with the international community, could sustain North Korea at subsistence levels for the next 5 years at least. If collapse is not imminent in the short to medium term, then the policy implications that emerge from such a scenario are clear: that the international community will need to continue to pursue a policy approach of managing tension reduction and the integration of North Korea into the international community. Whether the North Korea regime will embrace fundamental reforms needed to ensure longer term survival remains difficult to judge. In the final section of the paper, several reasons are advanced as to why the window of opportunity for North Korea to embrace reform is now greater than at any time in the past.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Israel and East Asia
1199. Blunder in the Balkans: The Clinton Administration's Bungled War against Serbia
- Author:
- Christopher Layne
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The Clinton administration has made one miscalculation after another in dealing with the Kosovo crisis. U.S. officials and their NATO colleagues never understood the historical and emotional importance of Kosovo to the Serbia n people, believing instead that Belgrade's harsh repression of the ethnic Albanian secessionist movement in Kosovo merely reflected the will of President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia. The administration's foreign policy team mistakenly concluded that, under a threat of air strikes, the Yugoslav government would sign a dictate d peace accord (the Rambouillet agreement) to be implemented by a NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo. Even if Milosevic initially refused to sign the Rambouillet agreement, administration leaders believed that Belgrade would relent after a brief “demonstration” bombing campaign. Those calculations proved to be disastrously wrong.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania
1200. The International System of the 21st Century
- Author:
- Bertel Heurlin
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- In 1969, 30 years ago, a large portion of the earth's population had to revise their conception of the world. Pictures of Earth as seen from the moon taken by American astronauts made a considerable impression. The pictures portrayed a very beautiful planet - shining, inviting, sunny, fertile, full of life and beauty. This was Spaceship Earth, a spaceship apparently characterised more by nature than by culture. The spaceship Earth appears hospitable and yet vulnerable. It faces space, communicating. It is a spaceship the population of which lives on the outside in stead of within.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation