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802. Challenges to U.S. Government Support for Media Development
- Author:
- Andrew Green
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- Media play a pivotal role in U.S. foreign policy, but the two U.S. government bodies most directly involved in media development assistance—the State Department's Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (DRL) and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)—face significant resource shortfalls in this area. This weakness has a direct impact on the U.S. government's ability to support media development around the world. Several units within the State Department are engaged with media efforts. Those that work in media development usually do so in cooperation with or through USAID and its media experts.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, Mass Media, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- United States
803. Justice Interrupted: Historical Perspectives on Promoting Democracy in the Middle East
- Author:
- Elizabeth F. Thompson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Foreign affairs experts routinely use historical analogy to develop and justify policy. However, as professional historians have long noted, attractive analogies often lead to bad policies. Officials regularly choose analogies that neglect or distort the historical case they aim to illuminate. Nonetheless, history can be used effectively in international relations. To do so, practitioners must first recognize the difference between historical analogy and precedent. Historical precedent, drawn from the past of the region in question, is a safer guide to policy than historical analogy, which is based on comparisons to events in other regions. Because historical precedent is a self-limiting form of analogy restricted to a certain place, people, and time, it provides a better indication of how a certain society understands and responds to a given situation. The recent U.S. intervention in Iraq highlights the misuses of history: American leaders employed analogies to World War II to justify the invasion and to predict success in establishing a democratic regime after. These analogies proved to be a poor guide to nation building in the short term. In the long term, they have deeply aggravated U.S. relations with Iraqis and the rest of the Arab world. A more effective use of history would have been to refer to the precedent of World War I, a crucial moment when American policy could have supported indigenous Arab constitutional democracy—but, fatefully, did not. For the new administration, the Arabs' experience of “justice interrupted” after World War I can still be a useful touchstone for promoting democracy in the region. This precedent alerts us that foreign intervention can spark a deep-seated and negative political reaction in the postcolonial Arab world and that reform in Arab politics must begin with respect for national sovereignty. It also reminds us that constitutionalism and the desire to participate in the community of international law are enduring values in Arab politics.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
804. Oil-rent Boom in Iran?
- Author:
- Martin Beck
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- The present article aims to analyze the effects of high oil prices since 2003 on Iran. The theoretical basis of the analysis is the rentier state approach, the basic element of which is that rents are at the free disposal of the rentier. Empirically, the paper examines the issue areas of foreign policy, domestic policy and economic policy. After proving that the oil price—despite fluctuations—has constantly been at a high level in the first decade of the twenty‐first century, the discussion demonstrates that Iran has used the increased rent in‐come to support a populist policy. In terms of economic policy, the regime has pursued a redistributive strategy. The country's foreign policy, particularly the ostentatiously pursued atomic program, has been very expensive since it provoked sanctions whose costs were initially balanced only by high rent income. Yet, in his first term, Ahmadinejad failed to prepare Iran for the situation that has occurred as a result of the global financial crisis: the redistributive policy of the regime has meant that an oil price below US$70 or US$75 now constitutes a severe challenge for the Iranian state budget.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Markets, Oil, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
805. Media Briefing Booklet: President Barack Obama's Visit to Ghana July 10, 2009
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- Over the past decade, Africa's status in U.S. national security policy has risen dramatically, for three main reasons: America's growing dependence on Africa's oil exports, Africa's importance as a major battlefield in America's “Global War on Terrorism,” and Africa's central position in the global competition between America and China for economic and political power.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Oil, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, China, America, and Ghana
806. Brazil and the Transatlantic Community in the Wake of the Global Crisis
- Author:
- Thomas J Trebat
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University
- Abstract:
- As the great global crisis eases its grasp, it is a time to reconsider relations between Brazil and the North, especially the United States and the European Union. While the world economy is still reeling, it is very possible that a new and more productive period in Brazil's relations with the US and Europe is possible. This positive outcome derives from numerous factors, most especially Brazil's “peaceful rise” to a more prominent global role and the arrival of the Obama administration whose promise of a new beginning in U.S. foreign policy has been greeted with such evident enthusiasm in Latin America.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, International Political Economy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Brazil, and Latin America
807. "Fixing Broken Windows": Security Sector Reform in Palestine, Lebanon, and Yemen
- Author:
- Yezid Sayigh
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- As they emerge from conflict, states can rarely commence the arduous task of reconstruction and consolidate their governments until they undertake extensive restructuring of their security forces. Palestine, Lebanon, and Yemen are all fractured, quasi-democratic states with divided societies, and deep disagreement over what constitutes the national interest. Successful reform in each will require security institutions that answer to democratically-elected civilian leaders, but the U.S. and European approach has thus far focused largely on providing military training and equipment, targeted toward counterterrorist capabilities.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, and Lebanon
808. Regularidades de la Política Exterior de Néstor Kirchner
- Author:
- Alejandro Simonoff
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
- Abstract:
- La política exterior del gobierno de Néstor Kirchner ha sido presentada por muchos analistas como un fenómeno fragmentado y contradictorio. Por ello, para analizarla creemos que hacerlo en clave autonómica es un buen ejercicio; seguir no sólo los términos teóricos de Juan Carlos Puig, sino también los ajustes e innovaciones de algunos de sus discípulos; Guillermo Figari, por ejemplo.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
809. Obama's Address to the Nation on the Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan, December 2009
- Author:
- Barack Obama
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- President Obama gave this address on December 1, 2009 at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, New York.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, War, Armed Struggle, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and New York
810. On the measure of power and the power of measure in International Relations
- Author:
- Stefano Guzzini
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Power is a central concept in theories of International Relations. Its explanatory role shows in such a key concept as the 'balance of power' which predicts that allied groups of states will tend to balance their respective powers. But it also plays an important role for understanding the outcome of conflicts, since here 'power' has often been likened to a 'cause': getting someone else to do what he/she would not have otherwise done. Knowing power distributions therefore is said to explain state behaviour and the outcome of their interaction. Such power analysis must assume the measurability of power. Unfortunately, as this Working Paper argues, such measure is of no avail, not because we have not yet thought enough about it, but because it is not possible. There are two main reasons. First, because of the missing fungibility of power resources, no standard of measure can be established. And secondly, for understanding power phenomena and the very value of such resources in the first place, we need to analyse legitimacy, which is, however, not reducible to any objective measure. Still, since power as a measurable fact appears crucial in the language and bargaining of international politics, measures of power are agreed to and constructed as a social fact: diplomats must agree first on what counts before they can start counting. The second part of the paper therefore moves the analysis of power away from the illusion of an objective measure to the political battle over defining the criteria of power, which in turn has political effects. In other words, besides understanding what power means, one has also to assess what its understanding, if shared, does. Being tied to the idea of responsibility in our political discourse ('ought implies can'), the act attributing power to actors asks them to justify their action or non-action: it 'empowers' certain actions. The paper illustrates such interactive effects by discussing the present debate about US power, showing the way we conceive power, if it becomes shared, implies and legitimates particular foreign policy action.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States
811. Shades of Red: China's Debate over North Korea
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Pyongyang's latest round of provocations has prompted Beijing to reconsider its North Korea policy. A rocket launch, the withdrawal from the Six-Party Talks, and the 25 May nuclear test all deepened doubts in China about its policies towards its neighbour. This series of escalating gestures coincided with reports that Kim Jong-il was seriously ill, which set in train succession plans. Together, the nuclear tensions and succession worries drew out an unusually public, and critical, discussion in China about its ties with North Korea. The debate took place between those proposing a stronger line against North Korea (“strategists”) and others advocating the continuation of substantial political and economic cover for China's traditional ally (“traditionalists”). Beijing ultimately supported a strongly worded UN Security Council presidential statement and a resolution mandating a substantial sanctions regime, albeit one focused on missile and defence programs that would not destabilise the economy. Although many in the West have pointed to this debate as a sign of a policy shift, Beijing's strategic calculations remain unchanged. As one high-level Chinese diplomat said, “Our mindset has changed, but the length of our border has not”. North Korea's attempted satellite launch and nuclear test generated significant domestic and international pressure on Beijing, while its withdrawal from the Six-Party Talks stripped China of its primary strategy for dealing with the nuclear crisis. Chinese policymakers began to question whether North Korea's nuclear ambitions and desire for recognition as a nuclear power by the international community were in fact negotiable. Beijing was angered by the latest escalation and was ready to reprimand the North, but in a controlled way that would protect Chinese interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Communism, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and North Korea
812. Deepening and widening in European foreign and security policy
- Author:
- Gianni Bonvicini and Michele Comelli
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The process of European integration has traditionally advanced through two distinct, although strictly interlinked processes: a) in institutional terms, either through a reform of the Treaties (formal deepening) or through pragmatic ways and ad hoc mechanisms (informal deepening), intended to consolidate and enhance integration among its members; b) via enlargement (widening), through the accession of new members into the EU and their integration of the policies and institutions of the Union. The impact of these two processes is not uniform and may actually greatly vary, according to the policy area that we consider. The aim of this report– that summarises the research work carried out within the framework of EU-Consent project, and notably within work package VII “Political and security aspects of the EU' external relations” - is to study the interplay between deepening and widening in the specific area of European foreign and security policy ( including both CFSP and ESDP) and more specifically the impact of widening on this area.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
813. Intervention to Stop Genocide and Mass Atrocities: International Norms and U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Matthew C. Waxman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The collective international failure to stop genocidal violence and result - ing humanitarian catastrophe in Sudan prompts the familiar question of whether the United States or, more broadly, the international community has the political will and capabilities necessary to deter or stop mass atrocities. It is well understood that mobilizing domestic and international political support as well as leveraging diplomatic, economic, and maybe even military tools are necessary to stop mass atrocities, though they may not always be enough. Other studies have focused, therefore, on what steps the United States and its international partners could take to build capabilities of the sort needed to prevent, stop, and remedy these crimes. This report approaches the problem from a different angle and asks whether the current international legal regime with regard to the use of military force—that is, international law regulating the resort to armed intervention—is appropriate and effective in deterring and stopping mass atrocities.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Genocide, and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- United States and Sudan
814. Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action
- Author:
- Paul B. Stares and Micah Zenko
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Since taking office, the Obama administration has repeatedly affirmed its intent to prevent potential future international crises from becoming the source of costly new U.S. military commitments. In one of the earliest foreign policy pronouncements of the new administration, Vice President Joseph R. Biden declared: “We'll strive to act preventively, not preemptively, to avoid whenever possible or wherever possible the choice of last resort between the risks of war and the dangers of inaction. We'll draw upon all the elements of our power—military and diplomatic; intelligence and law enforcement; economic and cultural—to stop crises from occurring before they are in front of us.” Not long afterward, General James L. Jones, in his first speech as national security adviser, echoed much the same objective: “We need to be able to anticipate the kind of operations that we should be thinking about six months to a year ahead of time in different parts of the world to bring the necessary elements of national and international power to bear to prevent future Iraqs and future Afghanistans.” And in a major speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars in August 2009, President Barack Obama also declared that “one of the best ways to lead our troops wisely is to prevent the conflicts that cost American blood and treasure tomorrow.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq
815. Sarkozysm: New European and foreign policy into old French bottles?
- Author:
- Ulla Holm
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The Gaullist French president Nicolas Sarkozy has announced that France has to break with French past policies. The break refers to the launch of a new French European policy, re-enter in NATO's military integrated structure, up-grading of human rights in international politics and a new World Order. However, the analysis demonstrates that Sarkozy does not break with the past. Sarkozy's activism, his permanent speed and change of issue hide the fact that he continues Charles de Gaulle's and late president Francois Mitterrand's European and foreign policy which was guided by the concept of a 'European Europe', a multipolar world, France being allied to the US but not aligned and France as a politically visible actor in Europe and in international politics. The means to accomplish French European and foreign policy visions changes according to the specific European and international situation. The re-enter in NATO's Military integrated structure is such a change, but Sarkozy does not break with the past concept of not being automatically aligned with the US. Sarkozysm exists, but as we argue in this working paper Sarkozysm is an amalgam of past policies whose purpose is to satisfy all French societal layers and to strike a balance between Gaullism and Mitterrandism.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and NATO
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and France
816. Refraiming the Aid Debate: Why aid isn't working and how it should be changed
- Author:
- Lindsay Whitfield
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Everyone knows that aid is not working as intended, and that something must change. The big question is how to change the status quo. The current international aid debate is characterized by dichotomies and over-simplified generalizations. In order to push the debate forward and identify solutions we must first reframe the aid debate. The most important factors undermining aid's effectiveness need to retake center stage in the debate. These include: what is economic development and the role of aid in achieving it; the politics of aid relationships in aid dependent countries and have they generate perverse incentives; and the everyday practices and bureaucratic routines of aid agencies and how they diminish the impact of aid. Based on a reassessment of why aid is working, and on assessment that reforms inspired by the Paris Declaration have largely failed, the paper concludes with a different approach to changing the way donor countries think about aid and the way bilateral and multilateral agencies give aid.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Foreign Aid
817. Iran, the United States, and the Gulf: The Elusive Regional Policy
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Any effective diplomatic approach to Iran must involve a regional strategy. While Iran's nuclear program is presently the most urgent dimension for the United States and the international community to confront, unless the country can be reintegrated into a normal web of international relations, any progress made on that front is likely to be short-lived. Iran's neighbors — particularly the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which share a concern for Gulf security — can be important players in that process of reintegration. These six states, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman, are afraid of Iranian hegemony in the Gulf, but are too small or too timid to challenge their northern neighbor, so they seek to develop normal relations with Tehran while protecting their interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Kuwait, Tehran, Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman
818. North Korea: Challenges, Interests, and Policy
- Author:
- James J. Przystup
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- North Korea poses two distinct but interrelated challenges. The first is external: the challenge posed by its nuclear weapons program and the threat of proliferation off the Korean Peninsula. The second is essentially but not wholly internal: the challenge posed by the pending transfer of power in Pyongyang and potential for instability as the process plays out. This complex reality underscores the need for balance and strategic patience if the twin dangers of proliferation and instability on the peninsula are to be successfully managed.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Communism
- Political Geography:
- North Korea and Sinai Peninsula
819. Post-Conflict Health Reconstruction: New Foundations for U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Leonard S. Rubenstein
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The stabilization and reconstruction of states emerging from conflict has gained increasing attention in U.S. foreign policy as means to promote well-governed states, avoid future conflict and alleviate the enduring human suffering from war. Over the last two decades, stabilization and reconstruction initiatives supported by the United States and other donors have sometimes included investments in re-establishing – or in some cases, establishing for the first time – a system of health services for the population. Despite the knowledge generated and the encouraging outcomes of many of these programs, however, and the increasing attention to and financial commitments to global health in U.S. foreign assistance, the place and priority of health reconstruction as part of post-conflict U.S. stabilization initiatives remain undefined.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- United States
820. Obama's First 150 Days: Perspectives from an Arab American Writer
- Author:
- Gregory Orfalea
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
- Abstract:
- Barack Obama said in the first presidential primary in Iowa in March 2007: "I'm not running to conform to Washington's conventional thinking-I'm running to challenge it...We've had enough of politicians who put power over principle" Such strong words are downright revolutionary considering how business is normally conducted in this country concerning the Israel-Palestine dispute.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
821. Man weiß es nicht genau: Vom Nutzen de Sozialwissenschaften für die Politik
- Author:
- Wolfgang Streeck
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- Based on a talk presented at the University of Göttingen in a lecture series on the use of scientific advice for public policy, the paper discusses what the social sciences in particular can contribute to policy-making. Nomothetic theories, which scholars often believe to be the highest achievement of their disciplines and which contribute most to a scholar's reputation, seem to be least useful for policy. Explanations of past events are usually not of interest to policy-makers; predictions are hardly possible in the social world; and the technical application of social theories to influence social behavior or change social conditions (“social engineering”) is and remains by and large utopian. By comparison, descriptions of social reality by counting, measuring and observing social facts can be of considerable political use. Furthermore, while social science will never be able to replace the intuition of the experienced practitioner or relieve him of having to make responsible decisions under high uncertainty, it can help him to understand better the experiences of the past and the possibilities of the future and free himself at present from powerful myths as to what is the case, what is possible, and what is impossible. Finally, the social sciences, this time including their more theoretically oriented branches, may exercise a powerful long-term influence on policy since their debates, although they may sometimes appear merely academic, may shape the cultural self-description of society, and with it the basic ideas informing the actions of future generations of voters and decision-makers.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political Theory, Sociology, and Culture
822. Diplomacy and Security in the Twenty-first Century
- Author:
- Janne E. Nolan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- The findings of this first phase of our inquiry raised many questions about how the United States might improve discourse among intelligence and policy professionals in ways that could advance U.S. security interests in the twenty-first century. We were fortunate to receive additional support from The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation in 2006 to expand our study, allowing us to focus on the use of diplomatic engagement to protect against emerging security threats to U.S. interests—specifically on the spread of nuclear capabilities among new regional powers. The major purpose of this second inquiry is to examine whether diplomatic engagement is feasible and effective for addressing twenty-first century security challenges and to develop different examples of what such challenges might require.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Intelligence, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States
823. Japan under the DPJ: Changes in Foreign and Defense Policies
- Author:
- Sook-Jong Lee and Young-June Park
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- On August 31, 2009 the Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) landslide victory in the country’s national election brought fifty-four years of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) political dominance to an end. The DPJ won 308 of the 480 seats in the Lower House. Combined with 118 of the 237 seats in the Upper House that it won in July 2007, for the first time, the DPJ now controls both houses. By contrast, the LDP performed miserably. It managed to hold onto only 119 of the original 304 seats that it had held in the Lower House. Since its founding in 1955, the LDP had only lost power very briefly for a ten-month period between 1993 and 1994 when a non-LDP coalition came to power. The DPJ’s rise to power has been remarkable. The party was formed in 1996 during the run-up to the Lower House election of that year. The formation of the DPJ was in opposition to the LDP’s long dominance of Japanese politics and the policies of the reformist parties such as the Social Democratic Party and the Japanese Communist Party. The DPJ emerged as the third largest party behind the LDP and the now defunct New Frontier Party. By merging with members who had seceded from other opposition parties, such as the New Frontier Party, it would soon come to be a major challenger as it became the second largest party with the 1998 Upper House elections. However, its political influence waned and was only strengthened again through its merger with the Liberal Party, then led by the powerful Ichiro Ozawa in September 2003. This merger would also considerably boost its low public approval rating. However, it still trailed behind the LDP with a comparatively lower approval rating and a smaller number of parliamentary seats. In spite of these initial disadvantages, the DPJ’s victory was mainly due to a public backlash against the neoliberal reforms initiated during the 2001-2006 Koizumi administration and the inefficiencies of the short-lived cabinets of Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda, and Taro Aso. With this election victory, analysts widely expect that there will be considerable changes in Japan’s domestic and foreign policies under the DPJ. On its domestic agenda, the DPJ is likely to increase its political control over the bureaucracy and to strengthen the social safety net by providing farming subsidies and cash allowances for child-rearing families. In its foreign policy, the DPJ is expected to maintain the U.S.-Japan alliance but pursue a more independent stance than that of the LDP. At the same time, the DPJ will place greater emphasis on improving its relations with other Asian countries. This will also mean that South Korea-Japan relations will be improved as the DPJ addresses from a different perspective the controversial historical issues that have strained relations between the two countries. In general, there will not be significant changes to Japan’s foreign policy while substantial reforms will be focused on domestic political issues. Based on an analysis of the DPJ’s foreign and security policy, this commentary examines the prospects for South Korea-Japan relations as well as changes to Japan’s foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Elections, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
824. Toward a Smart Alliance: The ROK-U.S. Relationship after President Obama’s Asia Trip
- Author:
- EAI Security Net
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Asia is the region where a quarter of the total of American products is consumed, major bilateral allies exist, various networks of mul-tilateral institutions operate, and new powers are rising. President Obama, during his first Asia trip, tried to emphasize that America is an Asia-Pacific power that will continue its commitment through a renewed East Asia strategy of “power of balance.” Now at the crossroads of China’s foreign policy of “har-mony,” Japan’s new concept of “fraternity,” and South Korea’s catchphrase of “pragmatic for-eign policy,” the United States needs to refresh its role which has been defined as a “regional stabilizer.” People in Asia are eager to see Pres-ident Obama’s new approach to his East Asia strategy, because he inherited from his prede-cessor a triple crisis in the areas of security, soft power, and economy. President Obama’s recent Asia trip has certainly attracted the minds of many people in Asia with his concepts of strong “partnership,” and a positive-sum Asian future, as expressed in his address at the Suntory Hall, Japan. As the communication power of a network becomes more important in 21st century international politics, President Obama’s Asia trip means a lot with his efforts for public diplomacy. Putting aside images and metaphors, the strategic orientation of the United States’ East Asia strategy still needs to be more specified. People in Asia are concerned about four areas: 1) how the United States will cooperate with a rising China in producing a consensus in many sensitive and difficult areas such as mili-tary competition, economic interdependence, climate change, and ideational orientation; 2) how the United States will redefine the role of bilateral alliances which should go beyond the task of military cooperation, stretching to re-gional security and non-traditional security issues; 3) how the United States will facilitate the creation and the development of multila-teral cooperative institutions by actively par-ticipating in them; 4) and how the US will deal with security threats such as the North Korean nuclear crisis, cross-Strait relations, East Asian nationalism, and, most of all, regional power transition. So far, the United States seems to be more focused upon recovery from the economic crisis and getting help from various Asian partners in this effort. That leaves open the question of how to redefine the United States’ role in the rapidly changing environment of Asian international relations. Despite a relatively short stay in Seoul for about 20 hours, President Obama confirmed his commitment to South Korea with renewed words and statements: he underscored the importance of the KORUS FTA not just from an economic perspective, but also from a stra-tegic standpoint; he promised to provide con-tinued extended nuclear deterrence; he basi-cally agreed with South Korea’s approach to resolving the North Korean nuclear problem through a more comprehensive deal; and he highlighted new areas of cooperation at the global level such as climate change, Afghanis-tan, economic recovery, and the development of the G-20. South Koreans expect that the KORUS FTA will be the stepping stone for strengthening bilateral economic and strategic relations, recovery of both countries’ econo-mies, and improving interdependent regional economic relations. Regarding the North Ko-rean nuclear crisis, it seems that there is still a lot more to be done in making North Korea give up completely its nuclear program. This will require more intense and creative dialo-gue between Seoul and Washington. As North Korea has not made any strategic decision regarding its nuclear program and any future national strategic orientation, its return to the Six-Party Talks will only just be the beginning in yet another difficult series of negotiations. South Korea, as a strong American ally and a potential global middle power, will continue to work closely with the United States. The two countries need to search for new tasks and functions for bilateral cooperation in a world of rapidly changing international relations, where “smart” alliance and “21st century international statecraft” are required.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
825. Prospects for Change in the Beijing-Pyongyang Nexus
- Author:
- Sukhee Han
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Having detonated its first nuclear device in October 2006, North Korea conducted its second nuclear test on May 25, 2009. Having consistently attempted to dissuade the North from such tests, China has been infuriated by the North’s defiance of Chinese advice and interests. Immediately after the 2009 test, China released a statement almost identical to the one it announced in the wake of the 2006 test. Beijing’s unprecedented wrath and “resolute opposition” to Pyongyang’s unmannerly behavior had been clearly expressed in the 2006 statement. In the 2009 statement, the Chinese government “strongly demands” that Pyongyang abide by its non-nuclearization commitments, “stop actions that may lead to a further deterioration of the situation,” and “return to the track of the Six-Party Talks.” Furthermore, China’s subsequent vote in favor of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1874, which was designed to impose tougher sanctions on the Pyongyang regime than its previous resolution passed in 2006, seemed to indicate that China may implement a strategic shift away from North Korea and may also increase its strategic cooperation with the international community in dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue. Witnessing China’s stern behavior toward the North, some China watchers in Washington and Seoul have argued that North Korea’s second nuclear test, along with a series of other provocations in the first half of 2009, which included a rocket launch and a complete withdrawal from the Six-Party Talks, have prompted China to reconsider its long-standing policy of amity toward North Korea. In contrast to its traditional policy, China since the 2009 nuclear test has not hesitated to make it clear in its official statements that North Korea has become a liability than a strategic asset, and that it was not satisfied with North Korea’s arbitrary behavior threatening the stability of the Korean Peninsula. Remarkably open discussions about North Korea have also been permitted in the Chinese academia and media. In the debates, some Chinese analysts have criticized their government for its failure to get tough with North Korea; others have also advocated for Beijing to take a firmer stance toward North Korea. These debates seem to be a departure from the traditional brotherly attitudes many Chinese have shared concerning North Korea, and also serve as convincing reasons for many experts to argue that China may change its policy toward North Korea. At the same time, however, China has made clear that it intends to continue its traditional policy of friendship toward North Korea. U.S. foreign policy circles have frequently commented that the Chinese leadership has become increasingly angry at the Kim Jong-il regime, especially in the wake of the second nuclear test, and that Beijing is willing and able to use its leverage to pressure Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons program. In contrast, however, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao, during his visit to Pyongyang to celebrate the sixtieth anniversary of PRC-DPRK(People’s Republic of China-Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) diplomatic relations, reassured North Korea of its economic patronage by providing a number of economic measures for expanding China’s economic exchanges with the North. Furthermore, the recent visit of Liang Guanglie, China’s defense minister, to North Korea has also consolidated the Sino–North Korean military alliance. His avowal of “China’s willingness to have closer military contacts with the DPRK” must have provided more confidence for the North Korean leaders in dealing with post–nuclear test reactions. Given this situation, that China’s national interest concerning North Korea has been the maintenance of peace and stability is reconfirmed. On the one hand, in order to keep Pyongyang from further undermining peninsular security, Beijing has resolutely opposed North Korea’s provocations. China’s statements have emphasized its diplomatic pursuit of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and have also underscored that China, as a great power, acknowledges that it shares responsibility for preserving regional order and stability. On the other hand, China still places more importance on the maintenance of the status quo, in the sense of supporting the North Korean regime itself. China has exerted much more effort on behalf of the North’s survival than on behalf of its denuclearization. While China has in principle supported the UN economic sanctions on the North, it has never been sympathetic to the implementation of realistically effective sanctions. In facing Kim Jong-il’s presumed health concerns and subsequent contingencies in the North, however, China has realized that the status quo on the Peninsula cannot always guarantee regional peace and stability. Given that the demise of Kim Jong-il himself is relatively imminent and certainly inevitable, China has to adopt a new approach to North Korea. China’s chief concern is to strengthen its economic and military grip over the North with the intention of keeping the regime afloat and its leadership under China’s control even after Kim Jong-il has passed from the scene.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and North Korea
826. The U.S.-Japan Alliance: President Obama’s First 100 Days
- Author:
- Randall Schriver and Mark Stokes
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- Befitting for a prominent ally, Secretary of State Hilary Clinton waited only a day to establish communication with her counterpart in Japan. While the gesture is surely appreciated in Tokyo, and the symbolism was not lost in Washington, the messages revealed little about the Administration’s intentions (if any) to take concrete steps to enhance the alliance.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Barack Obama
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
827. What are We Fighting For? Western Civilization, American Identity, and U.S. Foreign Policy
- Author:
- James Kurth
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Fifteen years ago, Samuel P. Huntington published, first as an article (“The Real Clash of Civilizations?” Foreign Affairs, Summer 1993) and then as a book (The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Simon and Schuster, 1996), his famous argument about the clash of civilizations. The clash that he was referring to was the clash between the West—Western civilization—and the rest. Of the rest, he considered the greatest challenges to the West would come from the Islamic civilization and the Sinic, or Confucian, civilization. These challenges would be very different because these civilizations were very different. But together they could become a dynamic duo that might raise very serious challenges to the West.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
828. The Cost of Empty Threats: A Penny Not A Pound
- Author:
- Jack Snyder and Erica Borghard
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- A large literature in political science takes for granted that democratic leaders would pay substantial domestic political costs for failing to carry out the public threats they make in international crises, and consequently that making threats substantially enhances their leverage in crisis bargaining. And yet proponents of this audience costs theory have presented very little evidence that this causal mechanism actually operates in real—as opposed to simulated—crises. We look for such evidence in post-1945 crises and find hardly any. Audience cost mechanisms are rare because (1) leaders see unambiguous committing threats as imprudent, (2) domestic audiences care more about policy substance than about consistency between the leader's words and deeds, (3) domestic audiences care about their country's reputation for resolve and national honor independently of whether the leader has issued an explicit threat, and (4) authoritarian targets of democratic threats do not perceive audience costs dynamics in the same way that audience costs theorists do. We found domestic audience costs only as secondary mechanisms in a few cases where the public already had hawkish preferences before any threats were made.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Politics, Political Theory, and Public Opinion
829. Preventing Conflict Over Kurdistan
- Author:
- Henri J. Barkey
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The consequences of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq will doubtless be debated for years to come. One result, however, is already clear: the long suppressed nationalist aspirations of the Kurdish people now dispersed across four states—Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and Syria—have been aroused, perhaps irrevocably, by the war. Already in Iraq, Kurdish regions, which have benefited from Saddam Hussein's overthrow, have consolidated themselves into a federal region. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is a reality and a force for further Kurdish empowerment as it seeks to incorporate other Kurdish-majority areas and the oil-rich Kirkuk province in particular into its domain. The KRG's existence and demands have already alarmed all of Iraq's neighbors and the Baghdad government. The issues are far from being settled. If ignored or badly handled, Kurdish aspirations have the potential to cause considerable instability and violence in Iraq and beyond at a particularly delicate time.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Nationalism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan
830. Reforming the Intelligence Agencies in Pakistan's Transitional Democracy
- Author:
- Frédéric Grare
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The purpose of the present report is to analyze the intelligence agencies' role in Pakistan's political life through a better understanding of the agencies' objectives and mechanisms. Because Pakistan's civilian governments have been victims of the agencies' manipulation in the past, the new and very fragile government cannot ignore the decisive role of the intelligence agencies in Pakistani politics if it wants to counter the direct and more subtle manifestations of military control. The domestic political role of intelligence agencies is always a combination of three elements: militarization, comprehensive political surveillance, and state terror. The intensity and relative importance of each component varies over time and according to the specific situations in each country, but all three are always present. Terror as it applies to individuals or groups can be carried out by proxies and is intermittent, but it remains an essential element of the system. An intelligence agency's reputation for ruthlessness is often as important as its actual efficiency.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Terrorism, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and South Asia
831. Reconciling With the Taliban?: Toward an Alternative Grand Strategy in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Ashley J. Tellis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The run-up to the announcement of President Obama's new "Af-Pak" strategy provoked a flurry of "new solutions" to the conflict. Promoting reconciliation with the Taliban is one idea that has reappeared—even in the administration's own White Paper on U.S. policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan. While this notion would rightly have been considered ridiculous a few years ago, many in Europe and the United States obviously believe that stabilizing Afghanistan may require just that. In fact, it would be the worst approach at this time—and it is destined to fail so long as key Taliban constituents are convinced that military victory in Afghanistan is inevitable.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Europe, and Taliban
832. Turkey's Perspectives on Nuclear Weapons and Disarmament
- Author:
- Henri J. Barkey
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In principle, Turkey would welcome the global elimination of nuclear weapons. For the current government, the possession of nuclear weapons by other states is a factor that, indirectly at least, reduces Turkey's regional (if not global) aspirations and power. However, in the medium term, it remains deeply ambivalent on the future of nuclear weapons and its own plans regarding nuclear energy and weapons development.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Turkey, and Germany
833. Revitalizing Democracy Assistance: The Challenge of USAID
- Author:
- Thomas Carothers
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- President Obama and his foreign policy team are only just starting to confront the challenge of reformulating U.S. democracy promotion policy. Crucial to any such effort will be revitalizing democracy assistance, a domain that has expanded greatly over the past 25 years but risks not adapting adequately to meet the challenges of the new landscape of democratic stagnation in the world. As the largest source of U.S. democracy assistance, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) is a natural starting point for such a process of revitalization.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, International Cooperation, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United States
834. Confronting the Hydra: Big Problems with Small Wars
- Author:
- Mark O'Neill
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Australia needs to worry a little less about the small problems it has with big wars, and address some of the big problems that it has with small wars. Small wars, such as insurgencies, became the most prevalent form of conflict globally in the middle of the 20th century. The 2009 Australian Defence White Paper predicts that intrastate conflict will remain the most common form of war in the period to 2030. Australia has a long record of involvement in such conflicts, although participation has always been a matter of choice. But the fact that these are wars of choice for Australia, and that it frequently only plays a bit part, does not mean that they are insignificant in cost and political impact. And history demonstrates that small wars of choice can become wars of necessity.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Australia
835. Afghanistan Report: A Ten-Year Framework for the Future
- Author:
- Ashraf Ghani
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Describing the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan as increasingly perilous, President Obama has committed his administration to enhancing the military, governance, and economic capacity of the two countries. On March 27, 2009, he announced plans to launch a new strategy in the region: To succeed, we and our friends and allies must reverse the Taliban's gains and promote a more capable and accountable Afghan government. . . . Afghanistan has an elected government, but it is undermined by corruption and has difficulty delivering basic services to its people. The economy is undercut by a booming narcotics trade that encourages criminality and funds the insurgency. The people of Afghanistan seek the promise of a better future. Yet once again, they have seen the hope of a new day darkened by violence and uncertainty.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Military Strategy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Afghanistan
836. U.S.-China Cooperation on Nuclear Power
- Author:
- John R. Lyman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In 2007, the Atlantic Council of the United States (the Council) partnered with the U.S./China Energy and Environment Technology Center (EETC) at Tsinghua and Tulane Universities to hold a series of dialogues to foster cooperation between the United States and China on developing secure and sustainable energy supplies. Over the past several years, the Council and EETC have invited key organizations, experts from industry and government, and representatives from relevant United States (U.S.) and Chinese government agencies to become directly involved in several meetings designed to identify concrete recommendations for increasing official governmental and industry cooperation.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
837. Congo: Securing Peace, Sustaining Progress
- Author:
- Anthony W. Gambino
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government officials, business executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries. Founded in 1921, CFR carries out its mission by maintaining a diverse membership, with special programs to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign policy leaders; convening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in Washington, DC, and other cities where senior government officials, members of Congress, global leaders, and prominent thinkers come together with CFR members to discuss and debate major international issues; supporting a Studies Program that fosters independent research, enabling CFR scholars to produce articles, reports, and books and hold roundtables that analyze foreign policy issues and make concrete policy recommendations; publishing Foreign Affairs, the preeminent journal on international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; sponsoring Independent Task Forces that produce reports with both findings and policy prescriptions on the most important foreign policy topics; and providing up-to-date information and analysis about world events and American foreign policy on its website, CFR.org.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, New York, Washington, and Democratic Republic of the Congo
838. Dealing with Damascus: Seeking a Greater Return on U.S.-Syria Relations
- Author:
- Mona Yacoubian and Scott Lasensky
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Punctuated by conflict in Iraq, an ascendant ran, and continued instability in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, rising volatility in the Middle East threatens U.S. interests in the region. Meanwhile, sectarianism, al-Qaeda–inspired terrorism, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) all serve as troubling overlays to this complex mix. Mired in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States has yet to develop a comprehensive strategic framework that addresses these interrelated challenges. Instead, U.S. policy has been largely crisis-driven, attempting to put out fires by confronting issues on an ad hoc basis rather than seeking to respond to the underlying forces and tensions that catalyze conflict and instability in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria
839. Learning the Right Lessons from Iraq
- Author:
- Benjamin H. Friedman, Harvey Sapolsky, and Christopher Preble
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Foreign policy experts and policy analysts are misreading the lessons of Iraq. The emerging conventional wisdom holds that success could have been achieved in Iraq with more troops, more cooperation among U.S. government agencies, and better counterinsurgency doctrine. To analysts who share these views, Iraq is not an example of what not to do but of how not to do it. Their policy proposals aim to reform the national security bureaucracy so that we will get it right the next time.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
840. Beyond Darfur: Sudan in its Entirety
- Author:
- Matt Levy
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- Sudan is known to most Americans today for the ongoing genocide in its western region of Darfur, yet the problems facing this country are more complex than many activists are aware. As the largest country in Africa and the size of the United States East of the Mississippi River1, Sudan faces many challenges, governance chief among them. Shaped by its history, modern Sudan experienced two phases of civil war between the North and South (1955-1972 and 1983- 2005) killing more than two million while displacing many millions more. In 2005, this conflict ceased with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). However, it is in danger of erupting once again if CPA implementation continues to be delayed due to Khartoum's intransigence on many issues and the capacity challenges faced by the Government of Southern Sudan.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, America, and Sudan
841. EC Visa Facilitation and Readmission Agreements: Implementing a New EU Security Approach in the Neighbourhood
- Author:
- Imke Kruse and Florian Trauner
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- With the Eastern Enlargement successfully completed, the EU is searching for a proper balance between internal security and external stabilisation that is acceptable to all sides. This paper focuses on an EU foreign policy instrument that is a case in point for this struggle: EC visa facilitation and readmission agreements. By looking at the EU's strategy on visa facilitation and readmission, this paper aims to offer a first systematic analysis of the objectives, substance and political implications of these agreements. The analysis considers the instrument of EC visa facilitation and readmission agreements as a means to implement a new EU security approach in the neighbourhood. In offering more relaxed travel conditions in exchange for the signing of an EC readmission agreement and reforming domestic justice and home affairs, the EU has found a new way to press for reforms in neighbouring countries while addressing a major source of discontent in these countries. The analysis concludes with the broader implications of these agreements and argues that even if the facilitated travel opportunities are beneficial for the citizens of the target countries, the positive achievements are undermined by the Schengen enlargement, which makes the new member states tie up their borders to those of their neighbours.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, International Political Economy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Eastern Europe
842. The United States:A normative power?
- Author:
- Daniel S. Hamilton
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- To what degree may the US be considered a normative power? The US foreign policy mainstream tends to reflect a varying blend of normative and hegemonic approaches. The US has been and continues to be simultaneously a guardian of international norms; a norm entrepreneur challenging prevailing norms as insufficient; a norm externaliser when it tries to advance norms for others that it is reluctant to apply to itself; and a norm blocker when it comes to issues that may threaten its position, or that exacerbate divisions among conflicting currents of American domestic thought. On balance (and despite exceptions), the US has sought to manage this normative-hegemonic interplay by accepting some limits on its power in exchange for greater legitimacy and acceptance of its leadership by others. The unresolved question today is whether the US and other key players are prepared to stick with this bargain. Closer examination of the US case also raises a considerable number of questions about the notion of the EU as a 'normative power'.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Law, International Organization, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Europe
843. The European External Action Service: Roadmap for Success
- Author:
- Brian Crowe
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Even the largest EU member states are no longer in a position on their own to shape international events or the world we all live in. Acting together in the EU they have shaped the international trade agenda. They have been much less successful in foreign policy for a combination of reasons, largely lack of will and poor arrangements. The Lisbon Treaty sets out to remedy the second of these, perhaps helping also to remedy the first in a world in which that becomes increasingly vital for European interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Lisbon
844. Fragility, Instability, and the Failure of States: Assessing Sources of Systemic Risk
- Author:
- Monty G. Marshall
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- A public debate over the threat posed by weak, fragile, failing, and failed states and what can or should be done about them has become increasing visible and vocal since the attacks of September 11, 2001. As President George W. Bush declared in his 2002 National Security Strategy report: “America is now threatened less by conquering states than ... by failing ones.” This debate has grown particularly acute as the United States' prolonged military response to the war on global terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq has revealed the difficulties of controlling militancy and extremism by direct military intervention and enforced democratic change. The challenges associated with weak or failing states have garnered increase d attention by the policy community, but major differences about how to assess the level of risk in any given case remain.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Development, Diplomacy, Government, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and America
845. The Williamsburg Conference
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- Coming in the midst of a very heated U.S. presidential election campaign, where the U.S. is faced with numerous foreign policy challenges in the Asia-Pacific region and at a critical juncture in Islam's relationship with the rest of the world, the Asia Society convened over 50 Asian and American leaders at a very opportune time in Bali, Indonesia from April 3-6, 2008. Delegates discussed the characteristics of Islam in Asian countries with multiethnic or multireligious populations like India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. They also suggested ways of tackling radicalism and extremism by alleviating poverty, improving education, and reforming prisons and rehabilitation Centres, to name a few. During the second half of the conference, delegates engaged in a conversation about the evolving U.S. role in Asia. Contemporary affairs like the protests in Myanmar and Tibet, engagement with North Korea, and the impact of the Iraq war on U.S. foreign policy towards Asia were analyzed in light of the coming presidential election. Asian leaders were invited to give advice to the new U.S. president. Finally, young leaders from the Asia Pacific region shared their thoughts on what kinds of leadership and values are needed in the future.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Islam, Post Colonialism, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, South Asia, Indonesia, India, Israel, Asia, and Southeast Asia
846. The Implications of China's Ascendancy for Africa
- Author:
- Hany Besada
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- China's spectacular economic progress has led some security analysts and policy makers in the North and the South to question Beijing's intentions in other parts of the world. This paper examines the extent to which China's engagement with Africa has produced mutual benefits for both and whether Africa is reaping the necessary benefits required for poverty alleviation and economic development. Chinese state-owned enterprises have invested billions of dollars in foreign reserves, construction, and engineering resources assisting African oil-producing exporters. While many in the west have started to question China's extraordinary level of interest in Africa – in particular, its economic engagement with perceived repressive regimes – African leaders view China's entry as a means of pulling Africa onto the path of globalization. It is thus important that African leaders and policy makers ensure that Chinese trade and investment bring reciprocal and tangible benefits for Africans, and contribute to economic stability and good governance.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Africa and China
847. U.S. Electoral Assistance: Lessons Learned
- Author:
- Richard W. Soudriette
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- As President-elect Obama prepares to assume office on January 20, 2009, it is important for the incoming Administration to consider keeping America's long standing bipartisan commitment to promoting democracy worldwide. President-elect Obama spoke eloquently about the need to engage America's allies and friends to address global challenges. To continue promoting democracy in the future, the United States must engage other democracies and tap multilateral resources such as the Community of Democracies.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
848. Empowering Independent Media: U.S. Efforts to Foster Free and Independent News Around the World
- Author:
- Marguerite H. Sullivan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- In the last two decades, independent media assistance has become a significant aspect of the development field, helping countries to make democratic transitions, spur economic growth, conduct public health campaigns, and improve government accountability. Efforts to spread a free press have resulted in the professional development of tens of thousands of journalists and the founding of hundreds of new media enterprises.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Mass Media
- Political Geography:
- United States
849. "The Kitsch of War: Misappropriating Sun Tzu for an American Imperial Hypermasculinity
- Author:
- L.H.M. Ling and Ching-Chane Hwang
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Sun Tzu seems more popular than ever. The Bush Administration attributes its successful invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq to tactics in The Art of War such as “shock and awe” and “decapitation.” However, neither exists in Sun Tzu's manual. More seriously, this misappropriation reinforces an imperial hypermasculinity in US foreign policy given its neoliberal logic of “conversion or discipline” for Self/Other relations. Rival camps of imperial hypermasculinity arise in reaction, thereby rationalizing the US Self's resort to such in the first place. Locking the world into ceaseless rounds of hostility between opposed enemies, we argue, contradicts Sun Tzu's purpose. The Art of War sought to transform, not annihilate, the enemy as mandated by the cosmo-moral, dialectical world order that governed Sun Tzu's time. In misappropriating Sun Tzu, then, the Bush Administration turns The Art of War into mere kitsch.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, War, and Political Theory
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq
850. 9/11 and the Paradox of American Power
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The September 2001 attacks on the United States facilitated the formation of an effective domestic consensus on post-Cold War US globalism – a goal that had eluded the Clinton administration. The centerpiece of that consensus is the "war on terrorism." This puts US global engagement in a "war-fighting" framework, which has strong institutional, cultural, and ideological resonances in the American polity. And it admits both neo-conservative and neo-liberal varieties. However, the attendant surge in US military activism has proved both fabulously expensive and largely counter-productive. Moreover, it has helped undermine America's already-troubled hegemonic position within the Western and allied camp.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Imperialism, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
851. Fighting the 'Good Fight': An Assessment of Democratic Proposals For a New National Security Strategy
- Author:
- William D. Hartung
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Many Democratic Party security policy proposals have been developed in response to the Bush Administration's actions. Ranging from Peter Beinart's The Good Fight to the Democratic Leadership Council's Progressive Policy Institution book to left-leaning think tank proposals, this material contains positives, negatives, and “sins of omission” that need to be fully addressed. The first priority is to broaden the definition of security to include protection from threats to human life, with the military as one of many tools available. Strength should not be equated with spending, but with the application of the right tools to the right problems.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
852. The European Union and the Promotion of Good Governance in its Near Abroad. One Size Fits All?
- Author:
- Tanja Anita Börzel, Yasemin Pamuk, and Andreas Stahn
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
- Abstract:
- With the end of the Cold War, states and international organisations have systematically mainstreamed good governance in their development strategies for third countries. The European Union is no exception. The promotion of good governance ranks particularly high in the EU's “near abroad”, which has become a focal point for EU foreign policy making since the 2004/2006 enlargement rounds. This paper seeks to systematically compare the EU's approach to promoting good governance in the Southern Caucasus. Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia are equally marked by bad governance. Arbitrary rule and pervasive corruption are common in all three countries. Nonetheless, they significantly vary with regard to the degree of statehood, and the quality of the political regime. Our aim is to explore to what extent these variations have affected the EU's strategy of promoting good governance. Looking at the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), a rather recent policy framework, we seek to give some answers to the question whether the EU sticks to a “one-size-fits-all” approach, or whether it has started to practice some differential treatment.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- America and Europe
853. Business as Usual: An Assessment of Donald Rumsfeld's Transformation Vision and Transformation's Prospects for the Future
- Author:
- Mark G. Czelusta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Donald Rumsfeld's vision of a transformed United States military has been discussed by many and understood by few. It is no surprise that this lack of understanding has resulted in both significant simplifications and sweeping generalizations, to include the Reuters headline noted above. Even the term, “Rumsfeld's Transformation,” accounts for neither the historical influences that led to his vision, nor the multiple components of this transformational effort.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Asia
854. Sword or Ploughshare? New Roles for NATO and the Changing Nature of Transatlantic Relations
- Author:
- Olaf Theiler
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- The Western community is currently experiencing “a defining moment of international relations” as it undergoes one of its biggest and most severe crises. Some authors are already speaking of the “end of the West,” while others see chances for its rebirth. As the institutional epitome of transatlantic relations, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has always been the most important yardstick for gauging their state. It is now once again at the center of the crisis. During the Cold War, NATO and hence the transatlantic partnership were based on three central elements: Firstly, a shared direct existential threat, which applied equally to all Western states; secondly, a broad base of common values, standards and convictions; and thirdly, a division of labor and system of burden and risk-sharing that were born of necessity. As the biggest military and economic power, the U.S. assumed a dominant role as 'primus inter pares' in the transatlantic alliance, which the weaker European partners voluntarily joined without becoming completely subordinate.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
855. United Kingdom (UK) Military Intervention and Progress in SIerra Leone, 2001-2006
- Author:
- Barry J Le Grys
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
- Abstract:
- The working paper series on Sierra Leone is part of the research programme 'Security System Transformation in Sierra Leone, 1997-2007'. These working papers present perspectives from both Sierra Leone and the United Kingdom regarding the implementation of activities broadly defined as security sector reform (SSR) in the period towards the end of and following the Sierra Leone war.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Sierra Leone
856. Investing in Tragedy: China's Money, Arms, and Politics in Sudan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- In August, for the first time in history, China will host the Olympics. For Beijing, those will be days of pride, a chance to display its progress and bask in the world's admiration. But far from the splendor of the Summer Games, the people of a remote area in the largest nation in Africa—the people of Sudan's Darfur region—will endure more death, disease and dislocation, and this will be due in no small part to China's callousness. Craving energy to keep its economic miracle humming, Beijing has forged a strong partnership with the Sudanese government in Khartoum.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, and Sudan
857. Transforming to Effects-Based Operations: Lessons from the United Kingdom Experience
- Author:
- Andrew M. Dorman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The author examines the extent to which the United Kingdom (UK) has transitioned to effects-based operations to ascertain: (1) Areas where the U.S. Army could draw lessons from UK policies; (2) Areas where the U.S. Army and the British Ministry of Defence could develop integrated or complementary approaches and doctrines towards transformation for future alliance/coalition operations; and (3) Implications for the U.S. Army for working with the UK. This monograph is subdivided into four parts. Section 1 is a review of the evolution of British defence policy since the end of the Cold War and evaluates the degree to which it has adopted an effects based approach. Section 2 examines the British operational experience since the end of the Cold War including an analysis of the lessons learned and its experiences of working with allies. Section 3 analyses the UK's capability development through its doctrine and acquisition strategies. Section 4 evaluates the implications of these findings for the U.S. Army and makes 17 main recommendations.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and United Kingdom
858. Two Kinds of Change: Comparing the Candidates on Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Justin Logan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Few U.S. presidential elections have been decided on the basis of foreign policy. For the first time in decades, however, both parties have fielded candidates who have chosen to emphasize their foreign policy views.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
859. La Confianza y la Sunshine Policy en Corea
- Author:
- Joël Lambert
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
- Abstract:
- Hacia el final de 2000, el entonces Presidente de Corea del Sur, Kim Dae-jung, recibió el Premio Nóbel de la Paz otorgado por su trayectoria de lucha en favor de la democracia y de la paz, en la península coreana. Ese mismo año, antes de recibir la condecoración, Kim Dae-jung se había reunido con su homólogo de Corea del Norte, Kim Jong Il, en una Cumbre histórica en Pyongyang. Este encuentro se transformó en el símbolo de su Sunshine Policy, política que Kim Dae-jung desarrolló hacia Corea del Norte durante su Presidencia entre los años 1998 y 2003. En la reunión, el Sur y el Norte concordaron en que era importante consolidar la confianza entre ellos, lo que quedó estipulado en la Declaración Conjunta de la Cumbre. Kim Dae-jung reiteró su compromiso de incrementar la confianza mutua en la península, por lo menos, en dos discursos durante el mismo año (Kim, 2000b; Kim, 2000c). Su comportamiento con el Norte llevó a que Levin y Han (2003: 31) afirmaran que una característica distintiva de su Sunshine Policy era la disposición de Kim Dae-jung a confiar en Kim Jong Il, aun sin tener evidencias claras sobre las cuales basarla. La importancia de la confianza en los planteamientos de Kim Dae-jung lleva a cuestionar las características de este concepto y el rol que puede jugar en la búsqueda de la paz. Su estudio es relativamente nuevo en las Relaciones Internacionales, a excepción de la literatura sobre las medidas de confianza mutua en el ámbito de la seguridad. Contrariamente a éstas, se propone analizar la confianza como un concepto explicativo global de las Relaciones Internacionales, y no sólo restringido a los temas de seguridad.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
860. Barack Obama's foreign policy what can NATO expect from the next U.S. President?
- Author:
- Patrick Keller
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- Barack Obama was elected to the presidency of the United States on the promise of “hope” and “change.”2 Although somewhat vacuous, these promises worked because the people in America – and across the globe – overwhelmingly long for an end of the Bush era which stands for wrong wars (or at least wars gone wrong), hubris, and an overall decline of U.S. economic power, political influence, and moral standing. All presidents seek to leave their lasting imprint on foreign affairs, their doctrine. Most of them, however, merely oscillate between continuity and change: in the absence of major interfering events such as 9/11, institutional inertia, political constraints, and the wisdom of tradition most often push presidents to maintain the status quo while only tinkering with the edges. Revolution, in democratic systems, is a very slow process.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
861. Iran: Breaking the Nuclear Deadlock
- Author:
- Richard Dalton(ed.)
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- The dispute over Iran's nuclear programme is deadlocked. Five years of negotiations, proposals, UN resolutions and sanctions have failed to achieve a breakthrough. As diplomacy struggles and Iran continues to advance its nuclear capabilities, the issue becomes ever more grave and pressing.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Oil, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East
862. Forceful Engagement: Rethinking the Role of Military Power in US Global Policy
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- A key objective of the new administration will be to "rebalance" America's foreign and security policy "tool kit", giving greater prominence to diplomacy and other elements of "soft power". And it is easy to see why. The surge in US defense spending and military activity that began ten years ago, and then sharply accelerated after the 11 September 2001 attacks, has had disconcerting results-to say the least. But setting an effective alternative course for US policy will not be as easy to accomplish as some assume.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
863. Re-Envisioning Defense: An Agenda for US Policy Debate and Transition
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The United States is entering a critical period of policy transition. Beginning with the advent of the Obama administration, and continuing through the end of 2010, all of America's national security and defense planning guidance will be revised. Certainly the need for change is broadly felt by the public. And it is not difficult to understand why.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
864. Assessing Secretary of State Rice's Reform of U.S. Foreign Assistance
- Author:
- Gerald F. Hyman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States engendered a variety of responses: some domestic, some foreign; some short-term, some long-term; some direct, others indirect. The assault on the Taliban in Afghanistan was clearly one direct, immediate, foreign response. The establishment of the Department of Homeland Security was direct, relatively swift, and domestic. Among the long-term, indirect, foreign responses was a serious review and consequent reform of U.S. foreign assistance programs, and the role they play in U.S. foreign policy and national security.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
865. Honor in International Relations
- Author:
- Shashank Joshi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
- Abstract:
- The concept of honor has an extensive and distinguished lineage in the study of international relations, although contemporary theory has lost sight of its importance. This study begins to remedy that situation. It does so by first setting out the place of honor in relation to a number of other related concepts, like prestige and status. It then outlines a theory of "negative honor," and situates this in relation to existing theoretical and empirical accounts of honor-related variables. This theory draws on extant work in social psychology, anthropology, economics, political science, and other fields, to set out hypotheses on why, how, and when political leaders of states might respond to certain kinds of challenges in a way that constitutes honor-seeking behavior. The second part of the paper tentatively sets out one way to empirically evaluate these hypotheses. While unsuccessful, this provides a blueprint for further research and a number of soon-to-be-implemented refinements.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Political Theory
- Political Geography:
- China
866. Assessing the Impact of Dialogue Processes: Some Reflections from the Field
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- The growing use of dialogue processes to address emerging crises worldwide and to find consensus among stakeholders on a particular complex economic, social or political issue has been accompanied by the need and demand for better evaluation methodologies to: 1. Measure the impact of dialogue interventions (intended and unintended consequences), 2. Better understand when and how dialogues should be used and how they can be designed and conducted for maximum impact, 3. Convince external and internal actors to participate in, or support such intervention, and 4. Help build the field of dialogue by identifying good practices, systematizing lessons learned and finding common elements for comparative studies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Political Theory
- Political Geography:
- United States and United Nations
867. America's Role in the World: Foreign Policy Choices for the Next President
- Author:
- Thomas R. Pickering, Chester A. Crocker, and Casimir A. Yost
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- This report is about the central foreign policy choices the next president of the United States, the Congress, and the American people will face in 2009 and beyond.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
868. Diplomacy in a Dangerous World: A Conversation with America's Top Diplomats
- Author:
- Thomas R. Pickering, R. Nicholas Burns, Robert Kimmitt, Marc Grossman, and David D. Newsom
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- On October 29, 2007, the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy hosted a roundtable with Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs R. Nicholas Burns, and his predecessors as Under Secretaries from past administrations. This was a rare opportunity to hear from the nation's top diplomatic practitioners together in one room. The Under Secretary for Political Affairs is the third most senior position in the State Department, and traditionally at the center of U.S. diplomacy and foreign policy formulation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Government, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- America
869. Nuclear Challenges and Policy Options for the Next U.S. Administration
- Author:
- Jean du Preez (ed)
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- With the support of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Aff airs, the Monterey Nonproliferation Strategy Group (MNSG) has focused its work over the past two years on specifi c issues that have a direct bearing on the strength and vitality of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). To date, the strategy group's agenda has included ways and means to eliminate the threat of fi ssile material; renewed commitments and new approaches to verifi cation of and compliance with the nuclear nonproliferation regime; practical and achievable nuclear arms reduction and disarmament; the establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East; and nuclear challenges and policy options for the next U.S. administration.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
870. Special Report No. 204: Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability
- Author:
- Jack A. Goldstone
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Preventing violent conflict requires early warning of likely crises so that preventive actions can be planned and taken before the onset of mass violence. For most of the post–World War II period, policymakers and intelligence agencies have relied on experts to make qualitative judgments regarding the risk of instability or violent changes in their areas of study. Yet the inability of such experts to adequately predict major events has led to efforts to use social and analytical tools to create more “scientific” forecasts of political crises. The advent of quantitative forecasting models that give early warning of the onset of political instability offers the prospect of major advances in the accuracy of forecasting over traditional qualitative methods. Because certain models have a demonstrated accuracy of over 80 percent in early identification of political crises, some have questioned whether such models should replace traditional qualitative analysis. While these quantitative forecasting methods should move to the foreground and play a key role in developing early warning tools, this does not mean that traditional qualitative analysis is dispensable. The best results for early warning are most likely obtained by the judicious combination of quantitative analysis based on forecasting models with qualitative analysis that rests on explicit causal relationships and precise forecasts of its own. Policymakers and analysts should insist on a multiple-method approach, which has greater forecasting power than either the quantitative or qualitative method alone. In this way, political instability forecasting is likely to make its largest advance over earlier practices.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and International Political Economy
871. Special Report No. 206: Mullahs, Money, and Militias: How Iran Exerts Its Influence in the Middle East
- Author:
- Barbara Slavin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Iran has been a significant player in the Middle East, influencing and being influenced by its neighbors since long before the advent of the petrodollar or the Islamic revolution of 1979. But in the past five years, Iran's regional power has expanded considerably. Benefit - ing from Bush administration policies—especially the toppling of Saddam Hussein—as well as record oil prices, Iran has deepened its relationships with militant factions in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine and accelerated a nuclear program that could give it the ability to make atomic weapons within the next few years. President Bush, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and other administration officials have repeatedly labeled Iran a major, if not the major, threat to U.S. interests and U.S. allies in the Middle East. Yet Iran's reach remains constrained by an open-ended U.S. military presence in the region, domestic weakness, and historic divisions between Arabs and Persians, Sunnis and Shiites, and among Shiites. Though happy to take advantage of power vacuums, Iran neither wants nor is able to recreate the Persian Empire, nor is it about to become a second Soviet Union. As Mohammad Atrianfar, a veteran publisher of Iranian reformist newspapers, said in a March interview in Tehran, “We are not going to stretch our legs beyond the capacity of our carpets.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
872. Special Report No. 207: Integrated Security Assistance: The 1207 Program
- Author:
- Robert M. Perito
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Section 1207 of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) of FY 2006 and FY 2007 authorized the Defense Department (DOD) to provide up to $200 million over two years in funds, services, and defense articles to the State Department (DOS) for security, reconstruction, and stabilization. The DOD transferred over $99 million in Section 1207 assistance to the DOS to fund projects in Haiti ($20m), Somalia ($25m), Nepal ($10m), Colombia ($4m), trans- Sahara Africa ($15m), Yemen ($8.8m), and Southeast Asia ($16.9m). Congress's intent in authorizing this program was to jump start the new State Department Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization. It was also to promote a “whole of government” approach to security-assistance programs. After two years' experience, publication of principles and guidelines for 1207 project applications should solve problems resulting from a lack of awareness of the program and confusion over leadership and application procedures. Adding USAID to the decision-making Technical Advisory Committee should remove the largest source of interagency tension that has troubled the program. Greater clarity is needed concerning the relative weight of the program's priorities, which include security, counterterrorism, stabilization, and reconstruction and avoiding the need to deploy U.S. military forces. There is a need for the DOD and DOS to provide additional resources to embassies that are expected to complete a relatively complicated application form. There is also a need for the DOD to streamline the provision of funds so the money arrives in real time before circumstances change and projects cannot be implemented. Ultimately, the DOS and DOD need to honor the intent of Congress and request that Congress appropriate funds directly to the DOS for these projects.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, Middle East, and Central America
873. China, Space Weapons, and U.S. Security
- Author:
- Bruce W. MacDonald
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- On January 11, 2007, China launched a missile into space, releasing a homing vehicle that destroyed an old Chinese weather satellite. The strategic reverberations of that collision have shaken up security thinking in the United States and around the world. This test demonstrated that, if it so chose, China could build a substantial number of these anti- satellite weapons (ASAT) and thus might soon be able to destroy substantial numbers of U.S. satellites in low earth orbit (LEO), upon which the U.S. military heavily depends. On February 21, 2008, the United States launched a modified missile-defense interceptor, destroying a U.S. satellite carrying one thousand pounds of toxic fuel about to make an uncontrolled atmospheric reentry. Thus, within fourteen months, China and the United States both demonstrated the capability to destroy LEO satellites, heralding the arrival of an era where space is a potentially far more contested domain than in the past, with few rules.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
874. Schengen:Achievements and Challenges in Managing an Area Encompassing 3.6 million km²
- Author:
- Stefano Bertozzi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This paper assesses the achievements of the European Commission and the member states over the last six years in the management of Europe's internal and external borders. The key stages in the development of the Schengen acquis are identified, including the creation of FRONTEX (the EU agency responsible for coordinating the operational cooperation between member states in the field of border security) and the recent Schengen enlargement. The author attempts to explain the main reasons why the member states of the European Union have relinquished some of their much-treasured sovereignty and pooled their financial and human resources in a bid to manage and police Europe's external borders more effectively. Finally, this paper considers the fundamental question of how to make Europe's controls more effective, more technologically advanced and more responsive to the new challenges posed by globalisation, without impinging on the principle of the free movement of people.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
875. Rebranding Russia: Norms, Politics and Power
- Author:
- Andrey Makarychev
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This working paper argues that Russia is in the process of re-branding itself internationally, with a variety of normative arguments increasingly creeping into its wider international discourse. By appealing to norms, Russia tries to reformulate the key messages it sends to the world and implant the concept of its power worldwide. Yet given that Russia's normative messages are often met with scarce enthusiasm in Europe, it is of utmost importance to uncover how the normative segment in Russian foreign policy is perceived, evaluated and debated both inside Russia and elsewhere. Within this framework, this paper focuses on a set of case studies highlighting the normative and non-normative dimensions of Russian foreign policy. These include Russia-EU transborder cooperation, Moscow's policies towards Estonia, Poland, Ukraine/Georgia and the UK, Russian strategies in the 'war on terror' and energy issues.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, Poland, Moscow, Estonia, and Georgia
876. China and India: Implications for the EU Economy
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This paper provides background information on the likely challenges the rise of China and India will pose for the economy of the EU. The purpose is mainly descriptive, namely to spell out what kind of trading partner China and India will represent for the EU in the foreseeable future. A first observation is that India is several times smaller than China in economic terms. Moreover, because its investment rates in both human and physical capital are much lower than in China, its growth potential is likely to remain more limited. China's export structure has already become rather similar to that of the EU and this 'convergence' is likely to result in the rapid accumulation of human and physical capital. If current trends continue, the Chinese economy is likely to have a capital/labour ratio similar to that of the EU. In terms of human capital, China has already caught up considerably, but further progress will be slowed down by its stable demographics and the still low enrolment ratio in tertiary education. In both areas India will lag China by several decades. The rapid accumulation of capital suggests that the emergence of China will put adjustment pressures mainly on capital-intensive industries, not the traditional sectors, such as textiles. Another source of friction that is likely to emerge derives from the abundance of coal in China, resulting in a relatively carbon- and energy-intensive economy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and India
877. The European Union as a Normative Foreign Policy Actor
- Author:
- Nathalie Tocci
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This is the second in a series of papers from a new project entitled “Who is a normative foreign policy actor? The European Union and its Global Partners”. The first paper – entitled Profiling Normative Foreign Policy: The European Union and its Global Partners, by Nathalie Tocci, CEPS Working Document No. 279, December 2007 – set out the conceptual framework for exploring this question. The present paper constitutes one of several case studies applying this framework to the behaviour of the European Union, whereas the others to follow concern China, India, Russia and the United States. A normative foreign policy is rigorously defined as one that is normative according to the goals set, the means employed and the results obtained. Each of these studies explores eight actual case examples of foreign policy behaviour, selected in order to illustrate four alternative paradigms of foreign policy behaviour – the normative, the realpolitik, the imperialistic and the status quo. For each of these four paradigms, there are two examples of EU foreign policy, one demonstrating intended consequences and the other, unintended effects. The fact that examples can be found that fit all of these different types shows the importance of 'conditioning factors', which relate to the internal interests and capabilities of the EU as a foreign policy actor as well as the external context in which other major actors may be at work.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, and India
878. Prevention Failure: The Ballooning Entitlement Burden of U.S. Global AIDS Treatment Spending and What to Do About It - Working Paper 144
- Author:
- Mead Over
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- U.S. global AIDS spending is helping to prolong the lives of more than a million people and is widely seen as a foreign policy and humanitarian success. Yet this success contains the seeds of a future crisis. Life-long treatment costs are increasing as those on treatment live longer, and the number of new HIV infections continues to outpace the number of people receiving treatment. Escalating treatment costs coupled with neglected prevention measures threaten to squeeze out U.S. spending on other global health needs, even to the point of consuming half of the entire U.S. foreign assistance budget by 2016.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States
879. Wilson and the Founders: The Roots of Liberal Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Ted Widmer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- We can’t do much better than reclaiming the Declaration of Independence as a fundamental foreign policy document in American history. We have a tendency to read it in a simplistic way, and to think of it only as a sort of airy declaration of what were then human rights, and a declaration of separation from England. But, in fact, the founders had a fairly well-articulated sense of what they were doing with foreign policy, and a fairly revolutionary sense of their foreign policy. So I’m quite interested in how Woodrow Wilson rediscovers the founders and makes them relevant for his time. This thinking about Wilson began for me about ten years ago when I came to be a speechwriter in the second term of Bill Clinton’s presidency. I was quite interested in which presidents were considered historically interesting to Clinton and quickly figured out it was John F. Kennedy, obviously, and Franklin D. Roosevelt. a little less obviously, and Teddy Roosevelt, who was a huge influence on Bill Clinton, and always has been. It was a time in the 1990s when a lot of very favorable books were coming out about Teddy Roosevelt, and it was an attractive time to be thinking about him. At the same time, I felt Wilson was completely ignored. I don’t remember Clinton ever talking about Wilson. In the collected speeches of Bill Clinton—it’s something like eighteen very fat volumes, the man enjoys speaking—if we looked up Wilson, I’m sure we could find a few references, but very few.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Liberalism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
880. Wilson, Bush, and the Evolution of Liberal Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Tony Smith
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The first subject to discuss in considering the future of the liberal inter- nationalist agenda is the importance of the democratization project to the definition of Wilsonianism. The second is the meaning of multilat- eralism. In the first case, Thomas Knock and Anne-Marie Slaughter argue in a forthcoming volume that democratization was never an important part of Wilsonianism; that, instead, multilateralism is the key to liberal interna- tionalism. On the basis of this argument, they come to the conclusion that the Bush Doctrine is not in the Wilsonian tradition. In my contribution to this volume,1 I object to this denigration of the place of democracy in liberal internationalism as being fundamentally illogical. Accordingly, I find the Bush Doctrine easily identifiable as Wilsonian. I argue for the centrality of democracy to the Wilsonian project because it seems clear that the microfoundations for a regime in society are critical to the ability of those states that participate in multilateral organizations to do so effectively. That is, in order to function effectively, ultimately to provide for a peaceful world order, a multilateral organization needs to be dominated by democratic states, known for their rule-abiding behavior, their transparency, predictability, and accountability. Wilson wanted the League of Nations to be a League under the control of democracies and concerned with expanding this form of government,2 but then in late February 1919 at Versailles, he abandoned that idea. From a liberal internationalist perspective, the result of the League’s character was that it was undermined not only by the failure of the United States to join, but also by the role played in it by autocratic states. It is worth adding that in his drafts of the Pan American Union some three years earlier, Wilson had also looked forward to a community of American states based on the consent of the governed. In a word, a world of peace was necessarily a world dominated by what today is often called “market democracies,” a type of social, economic, and political order that Wilson argued was fundamentally different from and better than any alternative order. In such an order the place of democratic governments was central.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Leadership, and Liberalism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
881. Wilson’s Radical Vision for Global Governance
- Author:
- Erez Manela
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- In recent years, Woodrow Wilson has returned to feature promi- nently in the public discourse on the role of the United States in the world. For students of U.S. foreign relations, this is hardly a sur- prising development. Wilson was responsible for articulating a vision of the U.S. role in the world—usually described as “liberal interna- tionalism”—that has remained, despite well-known flaws and scores of critics over the years, dominant in shaping American rhetoric and self-image, if not always policies, vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Competing foreign policy postures, such as isolationism or “national interest” realism, have surely been influential in particular eras and contexts. But they have failed to match the ideological and popular appeal of liberal internationalism, which has echoed so compellingly the most basic ideas many Americans hold about who they are, what their country is about, and what it should stand for in the world.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Governance, Leadership, and Liberalism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
882. Does the “Surge” Explain Iraq’s Improved Security?
- Author:
- Jon R. Lindsay
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Sen. John McCain has long advocated “sustained and substantial” troop increases,1 attacking Sen. Barack Obama’s position on drawing down forces. Obama for his part recently stated that the surge has “succeeded in ways that nobody anticipated” and “beyond our wildest dreams.”2 Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, commander of Multi- National Corps Iraq during the surge, told a Heritage Foundation audience in March 2008, “I think it’s safe to say that the surge of Coalition forces—and how we employed those forces—have broken the cycle of sectarian violence in Iraq.”3 While the surge was quite controversial in its inception,4 it now seems that “success has a thou- sand fathers.” Indeed, since the deployment starting in January 2007 of an additional 30,000 troops (five addi- tional Army brigades primarily in and around Baghdad and 4,000 Marines in Anbar Province, rising to a high-water mark of 171,000 U.S. troops in Iraq by October 2007), the drop in vio- lence has been remarkable. From December 2006 to August 2008, monthly insurgent-initiated attacks have dropped from over 5,600 to 800, U.S. troop fatalities from 112 to 23, and Iraqi civilian fatalities from 3,500 to 500. Even though we’re hardly out of the woods, the troop surge is clearly correlated with a major decrease in violence.5 Correlation, of course, is not causation. Lt. Gen. Odierno is right to highlight the employment of surge forces in addition to the increase in their numbers. The renewed focus on providing security to the Iraqi population—by pushing troops out of sprawling Forward Operating Bases and proactively controlling movement within major cities—has truly been a change for the bet- ter. Nevertheless, there are factors above and beyond additional troops and better counter-insur- gency tactics that may account for the drop in violence. These include the Sunni Awakening movements that emerged in Anbar province prior to the surge, the tragic efficacy of sectarian killing in 2006, the Shia Mahdi Army cease-fire announced and renewed by Moqtada al-Sadr, and operations by other U.S. organizations not associated with the surge.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
883. The U.S. and Iran in Afghanistan: Policy Gone Awry
- Author:
- Barnett R. Rubin and Sara Batmanglich
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan is one of several contexts in which the long-term common interests of the U.S. and Iran have been over- shadowed by the animus originating in the 1953 CIA-led coup in Iran and the Iranian revolution of 1979, to the detriment of the interests of the U.S., Iran, and Afghanistan. This confronta- tion has served the interests of the Pakistan military, Taliban, and al-Qaida. Re-establishing the basis for U.S.-Iranian cooperation in Afghanistan would provide significant additional leverage over Pakistan, on whose territory the leadership of both the Taliban and al-Qaida are now found. During the first half of the Cold War (until the 1978 coup in Afghanistan and the 1979 revolution in Iran), Afghanistan was a non-aligned country with a Soviet-trained army wedged between the USSR and U.S. allies. In the 1970s, under the Nixon Doctrine, the U.S. supported efforts by the Shah of Iran to use his post-1973 oil wealth to sup- port efforts by Afghan President Muhammad Daoud to lessen Kabul’s dependence on the USSR. This ended with the successive overthrow of both Daoud and the Shah in 1978 and 1979. A U.S. close partnership with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan emerged as the primary means of maintaining U.S. influence in the Persian Gulf and its eastern flank. Support for Sunni Islamists in Afghanistan and an Islamist-oriented military regime in Pakistan formed parts of this strategy to repulse the USSR from its occupation of Afghanistan, begun in late 1979, and to isolate Iran.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
884. Recovering the Liberal Foreign Policy Tradition
- Author:
- Nick Bromell and John Tirman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Over the course of the seemingly endless 2008 electoral campaign, Barack Obama chose not to formulate a coherent and distinctive foreign policy. Aside from calling for a redeployment of military resources from Iraq to Afghanistan and expressing a greater willingness to open talks with countries like Iran, he never explained to voters exactly how he would manage foreign affairs differently from John McCain or, for that matter, from George W. Bush.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Leadership, Liberalism, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
885. State-Building and U.S. Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Jeremy Allouche
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Since the early 1990s, state-building has become an important objective of American foreign policy. This can be explained by the fact that failed states have been perceived since the end of the Cold War as a major security concern. Under the Clinton administration, failed states were qualified as major threats to global security.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Hegemony, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
886. Iranian Influence in the Levant, Iraq and Afghanistan
- Author:
- Danielle Pletka, Frederick W. Kagan, and Kimberly Kagan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The conflict between Iran and the United States began in 1979 with the Iranian Revolution and the seizure of the American Embassy in Tehran. Born partly of ideological differences and partly of real and perceived differing national interests, it has continued, alternately hot and cold, for almost three decades and seems unlikely to end soon. Like most previous conflicts, its conclusion cannot be foreseen. Many such struggles, like the Anglo-German tensions between 1871 and 1945 and the centuries-long tensions between Britain and France, lead to full-scale war. Others, like the Anglo-Russian or Russian-Ottoman tensions throughout the nineteenth century, lead to more limited conflict. And some, like the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, are resolved without direct armed confrontation. One key to resolving any such conflict is understanding both the nature of the enemy and the scope of the conflict—insights that have eluded most Americans and, indeed, many Iranians. This report addresses this lack of understanding and argues that while neither Americans nor Iranians desire full-scale military confrontation, Iranian activism and American passivity are contributing to a drift toward war.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Britain, United States, Iran, Middle East, France, Germany, and Syria
887. Pakistan and the War on Terror: Conflicted Goals, Compromised Performance
- Author:
- Ashley J. Tellis
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- On June 24, 2003, at a Camp David meeting with his Pakistani guest, President George W. Bush declared that key al- Qaeda terrorists had been successfully neutralized thanks "to the effective border security measures and law enforcement cooperation throughout [Pakistan], and ... to the leadership of President Pervez Musharraf." Although Osama bin Laden was still at large, Bush nevertheless concluded that "the people reporting to him, the chief operators [of al-Qaeda], ... people like Khalid Sheik Mohammed, are no longer a threat to the United States or [to] Pakistan, for that matter."
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan
888. The New Middle East
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway, Paul Salem, Amr Hamzawy, Nathan J. Brown, and Karim Sadjadpour
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- After September 11, 2001, the Bush administration launched an ambitious policy to forge a new Middle East, with intervention in Iraq as the driver of the transformation. "The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution," declared President Bush on November 7, 2003. In speech after speech, Bush administration officials made it abundantly clear that they would not pursue a policy directed at managing and containing existing crises, intending instead to leapfrog over them by creating a new region of democracy and peace in which old disputes would become irrelevant. The idea was summarized in a statement by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during the war between Lebanon and Israel in the summer of 2006. Pushing Israel to accept a cease- fire, she argued, would not help, because it would simply re-establish the status quo ante, not help create a new Middle East. The new Middle East was to be a region of mostly democratic countries allied with the United States. Regimes that did not cooperate would be subjected to a combination of sanctions and support for democratic movements, such as the so-called Cedar Revolution of 2005 in that forced Syrian troops out of the country. In extreme cases, they might be forced from power.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Lebanon
889. Reading Khamenei: The World View of Iran's Most Powerful Leader
- Author:
- Karim Sadjadpour
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- There is perhaps no leader in the world more important to current world affairs but less known and understood than Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran. Neither a dictator nor a democrat—but with traits of both—Khamenei is the single most powerful individual in a highly factionalized, autocratic regime. Though he does not make national decisions on his own, neither can any major decisions be taken without his consent. He has ruled the country by consensus rather than decree, with his own survival and that of the theocratic system as his top priorities.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
890. Slipping into Obscurity? Crisis and Reform at the IMF
- Author:
- Bessma Momani and Eric Helleiner
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Top policymakers worry today that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) risks 'slipping into obscurity'. What explains the IMF's declining influence? Two significant developments have been the declining demand for IMF loans from middle-income borrowers, and the emergence of a more critical view towards the institution from US policymakers in recent years. In this new political context, a range of reform proposals has been put forward by Fund management, key shareholders, and the concerned policy community with the goal of restoring and preserving the IMF's significance. Advocates of change have focused particular attention on the need for process-oriented reforms that would change the nature of IMF governance as a means of restoring its legitimacy among many member governments. Also prominent have been more outcome-oriented reforms that propose various changes in IMF activities and performance. Are-invigorated IMF is unlikely to emerge from the current situation without the implementation of governance-related reforms.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
891. A new transatlantic relationship? European responses to US global hegemony
- Author:
- Trine Flockhart
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The paper addresses the question of how Europe (in NATO and the EU) has responded to changes in US announced and operational strategic and military policy and what the principal factors are for explaining European responses to what is perceived as a new form of American hegemony. The discussion is centered around the question of whether the United States has altered it conception of hegemony from one based on consent to one based on 'a preponderance of force', and therefore to have abandoned the crucial process of consensus building through persuasion, which has formed the foundation for the post-war Euro-Atlantic community. If so, then the problem relates more to the fundamental question of maintaining the security community during significant international change and perceived changes in European and American interests than it does to the specific policy content of American foreign policy. European reactions to the perceived change in American foreign policy have been varied in style and rhetoric, but can be di vided into those that have been concerned with safeguarding the achievements of the post-war era by following the United States wherever it may choose to go, or those who see a need for constructing a different relationship with the United States based on a more independent European foreign policy stance.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Europe
892. The extraterritorialisation of asylum and the advent of "protection lite"
- Author:
- Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- When does the refugee encounter the State? The straightforward and traditional answer to this question would be, when arriving at the border and surrendering herself to the authorities uttering the magical word, “asylum”. Reality, however, only seldom conforms to this picture. Today, the person seeking asylum in the EU is much more likely to encounter the State before reaching the EU border – at the visa consulate, through the EU Immigration Liaison Officers posted at the airports of key migration transit and origin countries, during passage over the Mediterranean where navy vessels are patrolling. Alternatively, the refugee may not meet EU in persona, but through delegation, either in the form of an airline company bound by EU regulations to carry out migration control or as a third State having in EU cooperation to perform exit border control or provide alternative protection in the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
893. Hegemonic Project or Survival Strategy? Language Rights in the Former Soviet Space
- Author:
- Kitty Lam
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Soviet Union's collapse brought to surface a complex ethno-political situation in the territory it formerly spanned. Changes in interstate boundaries separated various ethnic populations from their perceived homelands. This post-Soviet landscape has created policy dilemmas for the Russian government, as some 25 million Russians found themselves living outside the borders of the Russian Federation. How Russian leaders have dealt with issues pertaining to its 'compatriots' in the non-Russian Soviet successor states has become a subject of interest to Western observers. In particular, Western analysts have been observing the expression of 'ethnic diaspora' issues in Russian foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Development, and Population
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia
894. Mediation in Intrastate Conflicts. The Contribution of Track-Two Mediation Activities to Prevent Violence in the Aceh Conflict
- Author:
- Barbara Kemper
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and Peace
- Abstract:
- Mediation and its possible contribution to the resolution of intrastate conflicts has gained increasing attention in today's international arena. Especially the advantages of nongovernmental personnel to act as mediators (track-two mediation) even on the highest political level in contrast to official state representatives, or state-like authorities appear worth being identified. Successful past mediation initiatives by such actors have already presented their obvious potential in this regard.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- South Asia
895. Dubyu has gambled his standing away: George W. Bush's media image in Germany and Great Britain 2002 till 2006
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Media Tenor International
- Abstract:
- In the mid-term elections, the US voters have fi nally arrived at a view in line with how the German TV news covered the 2004 presidential campaign. The media image of the US President in Germany and Great Britain has not been able to recover from the setbacks of the past few years. It remains questionable whether or not the dismissal of the “scapegoat” Donald Rumsfeld and a more amenable attitude towards the Democrats' political ideas will truly improve his image.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Affairs, and Mass Media
- Political Geography:
- Britain, United States, Europe, and Germany
896. Media lose patience with Bush administration
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Media Tenor International
- Abstract:
- As the Bush administration enters the final stretch of its term in office, its image in domestic as well as foreign media is moving from bad to worse, the latest Media Tenor study reveals. After the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld, the president now appears to be the most negatively perceived personality in the White House. Are there any media darlings still left in the administration? In a strange twist of fate, Rumsfeld's successor, Robert Gates, has received considerable support from the media–at least for now.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, and Mass Media
- Political Geography:
- United States
897. No Ownership, No Commitment: A Guide to Local Ownership of Security Sector Reform
- Author:
- Laurie Nathan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
- Abstract:
- Experience shows that reform processes will not succeed in the absence of commitment and ownership on the part of those undertaking reforms. Assistance should be designed to support partner governments and stakeholders as they move down a path of reform, rather than determining that path and leading them down it. A major problem in the area of security system reform in some regions, particularly in Africa, has been a lack of local input to and ownership of the emerging reform agenda. This issue is most significant in 'difficult partnership' countries. OECD DAC Policy Statement on Security System Reform and Governance.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Africa
898. Force and Restraint in Strategic Deterrence: A Game-Theorist's Perspective
- Author:
- Roger B. Myerson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- In a dangerous world, we need to think very carefully about how military force is used. Game theory can serve us in such analyses by providing a framework for probing the inextricable connections between our adversaries' decision problems and our own. To illustrate the power of game theory, the author focuses on a vital question that confronts American policymakers today: What determines why an application of military force, which was intended to deter potential adversaries, sometimes instead stimulates them to more militant reactions against us? When we feel that force is necessary, what can we do to minimize the risk of such adverse reactions?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- America
899. Opium and Afghanistan: Reassessing U.S. Counternarcotics Strategy
- Author:
- John A. Glaze
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Cultivation and production of opium in Afghanistan have skyrocketed since the Taliban were toppled in 2001 such that Afghanistan now supplies 92 percent of the world's illicit opium. The expanding opium trade is threatening to destabilize the Afghan government and turn the conflict-ridden country back into a safe haven for drug traffickers and terrorists. This paper examines the nature of the opium problem in Afghanistan and analyzes the allied strategy to counter this growing crisis. In analyzing the current counternarcotics strategy, it points out pitfalls including the counterproductive aspects of opium eradication. Finally, changes to the strategy are proposed, which include increasing troop levels and eliminating national restrictions, substantially increasing financial aid, deemphasizing opium eradication, focusing on long-term alternative livelihoods, aggressively pursuing drug kingpins and corrupt government officials, and exploring the possibility of Afghanistan's entry to the licit opium market.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, and War on Drugs
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Asia
900. Turning on the DIME: Diplomacy's Role in National Security
- Author:
- Anton K. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The differences in approach and culture between the U.S. Departments of State and Defense are stark despite the fact that these organizations are members of the same team and share related national objectives. Understanding the nature of these differences is key to improving interagency cooperation between the two key agents of our national foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States