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  • Author: Sabrina Zajak
  • Publication Date: 02-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
  • Abstract: This paper contributes to the debate on the role of democratic participation in complex systems of governance. It takes a process-oriented constructivist approach asking how transnational activism over time contributes to the construction of access and voice from below and uses the Asia-Europe Meetings (ASEM) to analyze how interactions between civil society and global governance institutions shape concrete forms of participation. The paper shows that transnational activism triggers both discursive and institutional changes within the official ASEM process leading to an informal, fragmented, and fragile institutionalization of civil society participation. However, the paper reveals a division between civil society organizations with some, such as business representatives, having preferential access and voice in comparison to more contentious organizations. The paper explains this fragmented form of democratization as the result of three interrelated processes: the particular history and economic origins of the ASEM; international developments particularly in the ongoing economic crisis; and domestic developments within individual countries (in particular China) which have begun to favor controlled access for civil society participation.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, History, Governance, Developments
  • Political Geography: Europe, Asia
  • Author: Alex Evans
  • Publication Date: 12-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
  • Abstract: Until recently, 95% of the bandwidth for talking and thinking about the post-2015 agenda was focused on goals and targets. Now that the Open Working Group (OWG) on the post- 2015 agenda has reported, though, policymakers and opinion formers are starting to think more seriously about the ‘how’ as opposed to the ‘what’ – and what a new Global Partnership on development, as well as the overall political outcome on means of implementation (MOI) more broadly, might look like by the end of next year.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Politics, Sustainable Development Goals
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Oliver Richmond, Ioannis Tellidis
  • Publication Date: 02-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre
  • Abstract: The emergence of the BRICS has generated a renewed debate about peacebuilding and donor activity. This has slowly influenced the aims, norms and practices of international peacebuilding, statebuilding and development. There are subtle differences in BRICS members' interests, approaches and motives, power, influence, and adherence to or rejection of established standards (such as OECD-DAC principles). These states' activities have often attracted scepticism and criticism from traditional donors. An examination of their engagement with interventionary forms of development, peacebuilding, statebuilding, and their related institutions and practices shows that the BRICS can be both “status-quo” and “critical” actors. On the one hand, they all engage with the liberal peace paradigm and its often-neoliberal agenda that allows them to protect sovereignty and non-intervention, pursue trade interests, and advance their own interests (like a seat on the UN Security Council, regional stability or maintaining their often-ambiguous status of being both aid donors and recipients). On the other hand, their involvement has challenged peacebuilding's and development's Euro-Atlantic character through the unfolding of their own donor and peace agendas. This report highlights the instances in which traditional and emerging actors' agendas converge and diverge – and the motivations behind these agendas.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, United Nations, Foreign Aid, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Author: Rieker Pernille, Tom O. Johnsen
  • Publication Date: 02-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: For nearly 20 years, Norway has contributed financially to less wealthy EU countries. From €120 million (1994–1998) these contributions have reached nearly €1.8 billion for the period 2009–2014. What exactly does Norway get in return? Should the Grants simply be understood as an act of solidarity? Or do the financial contributions serve as a source of soft power providing increased influence in the EU? The objective of this article is not to assess whether the Grants have helped to reduce economic and social disparities, nor to explain why the Grants emerged. We focus on how and to what extent Norway has had and can have political advantage from these contributions, in relations with the EU and the beneficiary states. This article serves as a case-study examining the relation between a policy (the Grants) and soft power.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Power Politics, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Louis Brennan, Rakhi Verma
  • Publication Date: 03-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
  • Abstract: Despite the global financial and economic crises and a sharp downturn in the domestic economy between 2008 and 2009, Ireland managed to attract large inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2010. Inward FDI (IFDI) flows in 2010 were at a similar level to those in 2009, the second highest in Ireland's FDI history. However in 2011, there was a decline in such flows. While Ireland's economy has been greatly affected by the global crisis, Irish government initiatives have further fostered the country's attractiveness as an investment location for the world's firms. All indications are that Ireland's IFDI performance will continue to surpass that of most countries into the near future.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: Europe, Ireland
  • Author: Thomas Jost
  • Publication Date: 04-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
  • Abstract: In 2011 and the first half of 2012, inward FDI (IFDI) flows to Germany continued to be relatively strong. Germany attracte market-seeking MNEs, as its economy showed remarkable economic growth despite the ongoing problems in many other countries of the Eurozone. In the second half of 2012, IFDI flows turned sharply negative, declining for the year as a whole to only US$ 7 billion, compared with US$ 49 billion in 2011. This decline reflects the difficult financial situation of many companies, including banks in the Eurozone, and could also dampen inflows in 2013. In the longer-term, Germany could profit again from rising FDI as its economy has successfully implemented reforms over the past decade, and the German Government has continued to keep its investment policy regime open.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Germany
  • Publication Date: 04-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
  • Abstract: Recanati Business School of Tel Aviv University, The Manufacturers Association of Israel, and the Vale Columbia Center on Sustainable International Investment (VCC), a joint center of the Columbia Law School and the Earth Institute at Columbia University in New York, are releasing the results of their fifth annual survey of Israeli multinational enterprises (MNEs) today. The survey is part of the Emerging Market Global Players (EMGP) project, a long-term study of the rapid global expansion of MNEs from emerging markets. The results released today focus on data for the year 2011.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: New York, Middle East
  • Author: Leo Abruzzese
  • Publication Date: 06-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: After a series of setbacks, the global economy is slowly mending US economy is strengthening; star performer Jobs market is on a modest upswing Housing is bouncing back China is recovering from a slowdown Boom years are over, but so is the slump European debt crisis is stabilizing but austerity is killing the economy Euro zone remains big drag on global growth Japan is showing signs of recovery under a new government Central banks are supporting the bounce - back in a big way Don't expect a brisk recovery, though; many risks remains Debt levels still high; asset prices are volatile; tensions in Middle East, China, Kore and has stabilised in Europe, but at a low level. In Germany, manufacturing output is rising again.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, Infrastructure
  • Political Geography: United States, China
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci, Christine Mee Lie
  • Publication Date: 07-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper presents a survey of the micro-econometric literature on the effects of R tax credits on firms' innovation activities. The authors focus on one specific aspect that has not received sufficient attention in previous research: the sectoral dimension. Our meta-regression analysis (MRA) sets up a new database collecting a large number of firm-level studies on the effects of R tax credits and investigates the factors that may explain differences in the estimated effects that are reported in the literature. The main result of the MRA analysis is indeed that sectors matter. Micro-econometric studies that have focused on a sub-sample of high-tech industries have on average obtained a smaller estimated effect of R tax credits. The paper proposes a simple framework to investigate why the effects of R tax credits vary across sectors and points out new directions and hypotheses for future research.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Author: Vegard Bye
  • Publication Date: 06-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The Cuban society is undergoing deep changes, more than fifty years after the Revolution and the same number of years with a Castro government. The focus of study is mostly on economic reforms. But economic transition also has great impact - gradually manifesting itself - on the entire political system. The direction of these changes is still quite unclear. In this Working Paper, "The Politics of Cuban Transformation - what Space for Authoritarian Withdrawal?", NUPI Research Fellow Vegard Bye analyzes the choice of direction and some scenarios in the political transformation process.
  • Topic: Communism, Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Cuba, Latin America, Caribbean
  • Author: Gordon Smith, Domenico Lombardi, Barry Carin, Paul Jenkins, Pierre Siklos, Susan Schadler, Thomas A. Bernes
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Governance Innovation
  • Abstract: Tail risks for the global economy have receded vis-à-vis last year, but this has not translated into higher growth in many advanced economies. Emerging economies, which have made considerable contributions to global economic growth since the height of the international financial crisis, are slowing down. In its latest round of forecasts in July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its growth projections, especially those for the emerging economies, and the Washington-based institution may provide G20 leaders with a new set of downward-revised projections in St. Petersburg in September.
  • Topic: Debt, Development, Economics, International Cooperation, Labor Issues
  • Political Geography: Washington
  • Author: James Manicom
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Governance Innovation
  • Abstract: There are a number of strategic challenges currently affecting the Asia-Pacific. In a period of global uncertainty, China has emerged as a confident and powerful actor, while the ability of the United States to remain the region's hegemonic power has come into question. Maritime boundary claims, regionalism and unresolved Cold War sovereignty disputes are a source of considerable uncertainty. A number of non-traditional security challenges are also emerging, including energy and food insecurity, cyber security and the threat of a climate catastrophe-related humanitarian crisis. Canada and Australia — resource-based economies with a record of bilateral and institutional engagement in the region, and important US allies — have an interest in these challenges, and in ensuring regional strategic stability that promotes economic growth.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Governance
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Canada, Israel, Australia, Australia/Pacific, Asia-Pacific
  • Author: Shin-pei Tsay, Victoria Herrmann
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: Each week, more than 1 million people move from rural areas to cities around the world, placing huge demands on existing infrastructure—and especially on existing transport systems. Booming cities need contemporary mobility systems capable of transporting increasing numbers of people while doing the least possible harm to the natural environment. Multiple actors, including national and local governments, must work together to create environmentally and financially sustainable urban transport systems.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Environment, Migration, Infrastructure, Governance
  • Author: Andy Sumner, Peter Edward
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: The interplay of between-and within-country inequality, the relative contribution of each to overall global inequality, and the implications this has for who benefits from recent global growth (and by how much), has become a significant avenue for economic research. However, drawing conclusions from the commonly used aggregate inequality indices such as the Gini and Theil makes it difficult to take a nuanced view of how global growth interacts with changing national and international inequality.
  • Topic: Cold War, Development, Economics, Globalization
  • Author: Kevin Ummel
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: South Africa and many other countries hope to aggressively expand wind and solar power (WSP) in coming decades. The challenge is to turn laudable aspirations into concrete plans that minimize costs, maximize benefits, and ensure reliability. Success hinges largely on the question of how and where to deploy intermittent WSP technologies. This study develops a 10-year database of expected hourly power generation for onshore wind, solar photovoltaic, and concentrating solar power technologies across South Africa. A simple power system model simulates the economic and environmental performance of different WSP spatial deployment strategies in 2040, while ensuring a minimum level of system reliability.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Africa, South Africa
  • Author: Lant Pritchett, Marla Spivack
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: How much larger are the consumption possibilities of an urban US household with per capita expenditures of 1,000 US dollars per month than a rural Indonesian household with per capita expenditures of 1,000,000 Indonesian Rupiah per month? Consumers in different markets face widely different consumption possibilities and prices and hence the conversion of incomes or expenditures to truly comparable units of purchasing power is extremely difficult. We propose a simple supplement to existing purchasing power adjusted currency conversions.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Political Economy, Political Theory, Social Stratification, Socialism/Marxism
  • Political Geography: United States, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Jørgen Mortensen
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This paper first takes a step backwards with an attempt to situate the recent adoption of the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union in the context of discussions on the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and the 'Maastricht criteria', as fixed in the Maastricht Treaty for membership in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in a longer perspective of the sharing of competences for macroeconomic policy-making within the EU. It then presents the main features of the new so-called 'Fiscal Compact' and its relationship to the SGP and draws some conclusions as regards the importance and relevance of this new step in the process of economic policy coordination. It concludes that the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union does not seem to offer a definitive solution to the problem of finding the appropriate budgetary-monetary policy mix in EMU, which was already well identified in the Delors report in 1989 and regularly emphasised ever since and is now seriously aggravated due to the crisis in the eurozone. Furthermore, implementation of this Treaty may under certain circumstances contribute to an increase in the uncertainties as regards the distribution of the competences between the European Parliament and national parliaments and between the former and the Commission and the Council.
  • Topic: Economics, Markets, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Monetary Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Anna-Elisabeth Thum, Miroslav Beblavý, Galina Potjagailo
  • Publication Date: 05-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Adult learning is seen as a key factor for enhancing employment, innovation and growth, and it should concern all age cohorts. The aim of this paper is to understand the points in the life cycle at which adult learning takes place and whether it leads to reaching a medium or high level of educational attainment. To this end we perform a synthetic panel analysis of adult learning for cohorts aged 25 to 64 in 27 European countries using the European Labour Force Survey. We find, as previous results suggest, that a rise in educational attainment as well as participation in education and training happens mostly at the age range of 25-29. However, investment across the life cycle by cohorts older than 25 still occurs: in most countries in our sample, participation in education and training as well as educational attainment increases observably across all cohorts. We also find that the decline with age slows down or is even reversed for older cohorts, for both participation in education and educational attainment. Finally, we can identify a Nordic model in which adult learning is achieved through participation in education and training, a Central European model in which adult learning occurs in the form of increasing educational attainment and a liberal model in which both approaches to adult learning are observable.
  • Topic: Economics, Education, Markets, Labor Issues
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Christoph Trebesch, Mitu Gulati
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: The Greek debt restructuring of 2012 stands out in the history of sovereign defaults. It achieved very large debt relief— over 50 percent of 2012 GDP—with minimal financial disruption, using a combination of new legal techniques, exceptionally large cash incentives, and official sector pressure on key creditors. But it did so at a cost. The timing and design of the restructuring left money on the table from the perspective of Greece, created a large risk for European taxpayers, and set precedents—particularly in its very generous treatment of holdout creditors—that are likely to make future debt restructurings in Europe more difficult.
  • Topic: Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Europe, Greece
  • Author: David G. Blanchflower, David N. F. Bell
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: One of the factors that may inhibit reductions in unemployment as the economy recovers is the extent to which existing workers would like to work more hours and employers may prefer to let them work longer hours before making new hires. This phenomenon suggests that the unemployment rate does not capture the full extent of excess capacity in the labor market. But how should it be measured? In this paper we argue that the United States does not have the necessary statistical tools to calibrate this form of underemployment. We describe an index that captures the joint effects of unemployment and underemployment and provides a more complete picture of labor market excess capacity. We show how this index can be implemented using British data and describe its evolution over the Great Recession. Comparisons of our index with unemployment rates suggest that unemployment rates understate differences in labor market excess capacity by age group and overstate differences by gender. We also show that being unable to work the hours that one desires has a negative effect on well-being. Finally, we recommend that the Current Population Survey conducted by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics might be extended to enable the construction of an equivalent US index.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Labor Issues
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Arvind Subramanian, Martin Kessler
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: This paper describes seven salient features of trade integration in the 21st century: Trade integration has been more rapid than ever (hyperglobalization); it is dematerialized, with the growing importance of services trade; it is democratic, because openness has been embraced widely; it is criss-crossing because similar goods and investment flows now go from South to North as well as the reverse; it has witnessed the emergence of a mega-trader (China), the first since Imperial Britain; it has involved the proliferation of regional and preferential trade agreements and is on the cusp of mega-regionalism as the world's largest traders pursue such agreements with each other; and it is impeded by the continued existence of high barriers to trade in services. Going forward, the trading system will have to tackle three fundamental challenges: In developed countries, the domestic support for globalization needs to be sustained in the face of economic weakness and the reduced ability to maintain social insurance mechanisms. Second, China has become the world's largest trader and a major beneficiary of the current rules of the game. It will be called upon to shoulder more of the responsibilities of maintaining an open system. The third challenge will be to prevent the rise of mega-regionalism from leading to discrimination and becoming a source of trade conflicts. We suggest a way forward—including new areas of cooperation such as taxes—to maintain the open multilateral trading system and ensure that it benefits all countries.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: China
  • Author: Jens Chr.1 Andvig
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This is a conceptual paper that seeks to dig out some of the distinct understandings of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and relate them to basic economic and ethical choices and theories. Most of the discussion is focused on enterprise choice of tax payment in a context where both enterprise production activities as well as their tax payment may be allocated between constituencies where the state of public governance and poverty levels may differ widely. The presentation is non-formal, but mostly stylized and empirical information is mostly presented in the footnotes.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, Political Theory, Governance
  • Author: Nazlı Çağın Bilgili
  • Publication Date: 03-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Political Trends Center
  • Abstract: Elections are central elements of democratic systems as they provide the public with the opportunity – with some restrictions established by legal arrangements such as quotas – to make their voices heard. In other words, it is through election results that we learn a great deal about the social and political circumstances in a country. This paper follows the electoral trends in European countries since the beginning of the 1990s as far as the data makes it possible. In order to create a comprehensive analysis, turnout rates, voter preferences and other major determinants shaping preferences – whether influential economic or identity factors – are considered. Europe is defined, in this research, as all of the EU member states, making a highly complicated and heterogeneous collection. As the trends in these different countries can be expected to diverge, a regional comparison between Western, Northern, Southern and Eastern Europe is provided so that the similar and different electoral trends in these regions are presented clearly.
  • Topic: Democratization, Economics, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Burak Cop
  • Publication Date: 02-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Political Trends Center
  • Abstract: The southern European countries are those who have been affected the most by the EU sovereign debt crisis. However, compared with Greece and Spain, Italy and Portugal are in relatively better positions in terms of their debt/GDP rate and unemployment figures. There has been a strong popular reaction against the austerity measures in Greece, a country where leftist parties and trade unions have been traditionally strong. Due to the miserable conditions of the economy, the Greek government has been prevented from taking the publics demands into account. It is important to note that the political situation in Greece is very unstable leading to the potential relaxing of the austerity measures. There is no such instability in Spain and Portugal, making the probability of the relaxation of austerity measures unlikely, especially in Spain. Italy has the same potential for political instability as does Greece, and given that it is a country with relatively better conditions, in comparison with the others, some relaxation of the austerity measures may be expected if the centre-left coalition comes to power.
  • Topic: Debt, Economics, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, Governance, Reform
  • Political Geography: Europe, Greece, Spain
  • Author: Yunus Emre, Çağla Gül Çağla Gül
  • Publication Date: 01-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Political Trends Center
  • Abstract: Social democracy was born as a reaction to the social problems created by capitalist modernization in the nineteenth century. It had a central role in the making of the modern European societies. During the twentieth century, it had immense organizational successes and election victories transforming political relationships in those societies. In the 1970s, orientation towards social democracy increased within many of the countries in the global periphery. Today, social democracy prevails as an influential and successful political and social power system in these periphery countries. This paper seeks to answer whether social democracy should continue to be a model for other countries in the periphery.
  • Topic: Democratization, Economics, Political Economy, Governance
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Sandra Heep
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: Against the backdrop of China's increasingly influential role in global finance and the debate on the emergence of a “Beijing Consensus,” this paper examines whether the ideology that China promotes in the Bretton Woods institutions is conducive to the initiation of financial policy change at the international level. Drawing on Barnett and Duvall's (2005) conceptualization of productive power, Snow and Benford's (1988) framing theory and Freeden's (1996) understanding of ideology, the paper develops a theoretical framework for the analysis of international policy framing. Following an overview of China's rise in global finance, it identifies the core elements of the ideology that has been promoted by Chinese government officials in the Bretton Woods institutions since the onset of the global financial crisis. The paper argues that China's ruling elites will only be able to initiate a shift in the global consensus on acceptable financial policies if the frames that they propagate succeed in striking a balance between ideological continuity and change.
  • Topic: Communism, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy
  • Political Geography: China, Israel
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: Le double attentat du 23 mai 2013 qui a visé la caserne d'Agadez et une usine du groupe Areva à Arlit, suivi le 1er juin d'une évasion violente à la prison de Niamey, posent avec une acuité nouvelle la question de la stabilité du Niger. Face à un envi- ronnement régional dégradé, le président Mahamadou Issoufou et ses alliés occiden- taux ont jusqu'ici privilégié une réponse sécu ritaire. Comme ailleurs au Sahel, cette stratégie présente d'importantes limites. La focalisation excessive sur les menaces externes risque d'éclipser des dynamiques internes importantes comme les tensions communautaires, le déficit démocratique ou la marginalisation croissante de socié- tés rurales appauvries. Les arbitrages financ iers en faveur des dépenses sécuritaires risquent de se faire au détriment d'investissements sociaux pourtant indispensables dans un pays confronté à d'importants défis démographiques et économiques. La menace de la contagion terroriste depuis les pays voisins existe mais elle n'est réel- lement préoccupante au Niger que parce qu'elle gagnerait un corps social particuliè- rement affaibli dans un contexte politique lui-même fragilisé.
  • Topic: Security, Demographics, Economics, Islam, Oil, Insurgency
  • Author: Stijn Verhelst
  • Publication Date: 06-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
  • Abstract: Europe's financial and sovereign debt crises have become increasingly interconnected. In order to break the negative feedback loop between the two, the EU has decided to create a common supervisory framework for the banking sector: the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM). The SSM will involve a supervisory system including both the national supervisors and the European Central Bank (ECB). By endowing the ECB with supervisory authority over a major part of the European banking sector, the SSM's creation will result in a shake-up of the way in which the European financial sector is being supervised. Under the right circumstances, this could be a major step forward in addressing Europe's interconnected crises.
  • Topic: Debt, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Xavier Vanden Bosch
  • Publication Date: 05-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
  • Abstract: Both the Commission's proposal for a 'Competitiveness and Convergence Instrument' and the 'contractual arrangement' presented by President Van Rompuy share a common concept: associating EU money with national structural reforms under a binding arrangement.
  • Topic: Economics, Markets, Regional Cooperation, Labor Issues, Monetary Policy, Reform
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Mireille Affa'a-Mindzie
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: After the severe twin crises that nearly brought Mali to its knees in January 2012, the country is gradually recovering from their debilitating consequences. In August 2013, Mali successfully elected its new president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, thus putting an end to an eighteen-month-long transitional government that was put in place following the March 2012 coup. Even though the violence has abated and renewed hope seems to be in the air, the structural causes of the Malian conflict are still stubbornly present and their consequences are still being felt by neighboring Sahel countries that suffer from similar underlying ills. The situation in Mali and other concerned states in the region generated a renewed interest in the Sahel-Sahara region and in efforts to stabilize this region. This prompted the International Peace Institute, the Executive Secretariat of the Strategy for Security and Development in the Sahel-Saharan Areas of Niger (SDS Sahel Niger), and the Centre for Strategies and Security for the Sahel Sahara (Centre 4S) to convene an international seminar on security and development in the Sahel-Sahara on February 15 and 16, 2013, in Niamey, Niger.
  • Topic: Security, Civil Society, Development, Economics, Peace Studies, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Africa, Nigeria
  • Author: Alex Cobham, Andy Sumner
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: There are normative or instrumental reasons why inequality may be said to matter (e.g. fairness and meritocracy). However, much global literature has taken an instrumentalist approach as to why high or rising inequality can hinder development. For example, Birdsall (2007) argues that income inequality in developing countries matters for at least three instrumental reasons: where markets are underdeveloped, inequality inhibits growth through economic mechanisms; where institutions of government are weak, inequality exacerbates the problem of creating and maintaining accountable government, increasing the probability of economic and social policies that inhibit growth and poverty reduction; and where social institutions are fragile, inequality further discourages the civic and social life that underpins the effective collective decision-making that is necessary to the functioning of healthy societies.
  • Topic: Economics, Poverty, Social Stratification, Labor Issues
  • Author: Chun Wing Tse, Jianwen Wei, Yihan Wang
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: Social capital can help reduce adverse shocks by facilitating access to transfers and remittances.This study examines how various measures of social capital are associated with disaster recovery after the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. We find that households having a larger Spring Festival network in 2008 do better in housing reconstruction. A larger network significantly increases the amount of government aid received for housing reconstruction. Furthermore, households having larger networks receive monetary and material support from more people, which also explains the positive impacts on recovery from the earthquake. As for other measures of social capital, connections with government officials and communist party membership do not significantly contribute to disaster recovery. Human capital, measured by the years of schooling of household head, is not positively correlated with housing reconstruction.
  • Topic: Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Disasters, Governance
  • Political Geography: China, Israel
  • Author: Michael Clemens, Gabriel Demombynes
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: The Millennium Villages Project is a high profile, multi-country development project that has aimed to serve as a model for ending rural poverty in sub-Saharan Africa. The project became the subject of controversy when the methodological basis of early claims of success was questioned. The lively ensuing debate offers lessons on three recent mini-revolutions that have swept the field of development economics: the rising standards of evidence for measuring impact, the “open data” movement, and the growing role of the blogosphere in research debates.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Poverty, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Perhaps the worst part of the debate that has led to the shut down of the federal government is its almost total irrelevance. It threaten both the US economy and US national security, but it does even begin to touch upon the forces that shape the rise in entitlements spending or their underlying causes.The Congressional debate does not address the forces that have led to a form of sequestration that focuses on defense as if it were the key cause of the deficit and pressures on the debt ceiling. It does not address the irony that much of defense spending has direct benefits to the US economy and that the spending on foreign wars–the so-called OCO account–dropped from $158.8 billion in FY2011 to some $88.5 billion in FY2013, and is projected to drop to around $37 billion in FY2015. Much of the debate focuses on the Affordable Care Act or "Obama Care"–a program whose balance between federal expenditures and revenues is sufficiently uncertain so the Congressional Budget office can only make limited forecasts, but whose net impact cannot come close to the cost pressures that an aging America and rising national medical costs have put on Federal entitlements in the worst case NDS May actually have a positive impact in the best case.The following briefing provides a range of estimates that addresses the real issues that are shaping the overall pressures that poverty, an aging America, and rising medical costs are putting on the US economy and federal spending. It draws on a range of sources to show how different estimates affect key trends, but focuses on data provide by a neutral arm of the same Congress that has paralyzed the US government and whose action threaten the funding on a viable national security strategy.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Governance
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Murray Hiebert, Gregory B. Poling, Ted Osius
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The U.S.- Indonesia relationship is critical to the national interests of both nations, and will only grow more so in the years to come. The catch words are now well- known. Indonesia is the world's fourth largest country and third largest democracy. It is the largest Muslim- majority nation, one of the most pluralistic societies on the planet. Its political system provides proof that democratic norms and values are not dependent on culture, history, or religion.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, Economics, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: United States, Indonesia, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Jeri Jensen
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The Obama administration has the opportunity to achieve more sustainable development solutions with a new model of development relevant in a world where private investment is the primary driver of economic growth.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Aid, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: David J. Berteau, Gregory Sanders, Jesse Ellman
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The U.S. government has a permanent reliance on contracts with the private sector for a wide range of services, though the share of federal services contracts has declined slightly in recent years. For the past eight years, the Defense - Industrial Initiatives Group (DIIG) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has tracked the trends driving the services industry. Overall, this report analyzes the trends for all federal services contract obligations from FY 2000 through FY 2012, the most recent full fiscal year for which reliable data are available from the Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS). This Executive Summary provides an overall view of the data and trends, including projections for federal services contract spending over the next 3 years (FY 2013 – 2015).
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, Governance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: James Michel
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Good governance and the rule of law have long been associated with stable, just, and prosperous societies where people enjoy freedom, security, and rising standards of living. Adam Smith suggested in the eighteenth century that “little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence . . . but peace, easy taxes and a tolerable administration of justice.” Over the centuries, peace and security, sound economic policy and fiscal management, the fair and timely administration of justice, and the delivery of essential services— core elements of good governance— have continued to enjoy broad recognition as important factors for sustainable human progress.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Development, Economics, International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, Governance
  • Author: Stephanie Sanok Kostro, Ashley Nichols, Abigail Temoshchuk
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: In recent years , the United States has faced a growing number of severe natural disasters , presenting a variety of challenges for the nation – spanning the spectrum from federal to state to municipal and community levels – and its disaster response , relief, and recovery architecture . On average, the United States experiences ten severe weather events per year exceeding one billion dollars in damage , compared to an annual average of only two such events throughout the 1980s
  • Topic: Climate Change, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Disasters, Governance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman, Nicholas S. Yarosh, Chloe Coughlin-Schulte
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The political dynamics and violence that shape the current series of crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) – and daily events in Bahrain Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Tunisia, Syria, and Yemen – dominate the current course of virtually every aspect of these states including much of the current course of violence and instability in the region. Political dynamics and the current levels of, however, are only part of the story.
  • Topic: Political Violence, Democratization, Development, Economics, Islam
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, Tunisia
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The US is already at least six months behind in shaping an effective Transition in Afghanistan. It has not laid credible plans for the security, governance, and economic aspects of Transition. It has not made its level of future commitment clear to its allies or the Afghans, and it has failed dismally to convince the Congress and the American people that there is a credible reason to support Transition beyond the end of 2014.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Islam, War, Fragile/Failed State
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States
  • Author: Timothy A. Wise
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
  • Abstract: Alarms sounded following the 2007-8 food price increases regarding our ability to feed the world in 2050. Some said we need to double food production. Other estimates projected a 60% increase in agricultural production to meet rising population and changing diets. This paper looks behind those estimates to assess many of the economic models that have generated the most widely cited projections. A range of models are assessed, a typology of modeling is offered, and the strengths and limitations of different estimates are offered. Notable weaknesses include underestimates of the impacts of biofuels expansion and the uncertainties related to climate change and its impacts on agricultural production. We conclude with a set of recommendations regarding future modeling and the need to provide policy-makers with useful scenario analysis to help them gauge the impacts of policy alternatives.
  • Topic: Security, Climate Change, Demographics, Economics, Gender Issues, Food, Biofuels
  • Author: Jorge Balán
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute of International Education
  • Abstract: Higher education has undergone impressive growth and change over the last few decades in Latin America.This book selectively reviews some dimensions of this transformation, discussing policies, institutions, and programs, as well as their outcomes in terms of access, workforce training, and research. Individual chapters, commissioned from specialists from Latin America and the United States, stand as original, independent contributions focusing on key issues in higher education: changes in institutional autonomy and system governance, the contributions of higher education to advanced workforce development, policy responses to the continuing challenges of access and equity, government-sponsored study-abroad scholarships programs in several countries, trends in academic mobility and its outcomes for brain drain and gain, the changing landscape of U.S. universities' and corporations' investment in the region, and recent development of U.S. government exchange programs with Latin America.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, Globalization
  • Political Geography: United States, Latin America
  • Author: Ali Arbia
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kolleg-Forschergruppe "The Transformative Power of Europe"
  • Abstract: Over the last two decades, Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) proliferated through the international trading system. PTAs created a web of rules paralleling and extending the system of the World Trade Organization (WTO). PTAs are an increasingly dominant feature of the international trading system, adding to a steadily increasing complexity. Their content is rarely studied systematically across agreements, and the mechanisms leading to their genesis are little understood. It is typically assumed that actors like the European Union (EU) and the United States (U. S.) work off a template when negotiating PTAs. Some argue that this allows them, amongst others, to impose a regulatory regime. This working paper attempts to put this claim to the test. Using diffusion theory as framework, it analyzes PTAs signed by the EU, the U. S. and their regional trading partners. Understanding the use of templates will help negotiating parties to assess the margin of maneuver when negotiating PTAs with the EU and the U. S. as well as the rigidity of their mandate. The analysis is conducted on a regional and a domestic level using aggregated data on PTA content and a qualitative assessment of selected PTA provisions (anti-corruption, environment and cultural cooperation). The study finds that the flexibility of these mandates is considerable and that templates, if used at all, can change substantially over time.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Governance
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Mehmet Ugur Ekinci
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
  • Abstract: While some observers, referring to recent developments in the Middle East, are questioning whether Turkey's “zero problems with neighbours” doctrine is still in effect, Turkey's relations with the Balkans are enjoying their golden age. Since the mid-2000s, bilateral relations with all governments in the region have been in good terms, social and economic relations have intensi­fied and Turkey's public image has become increasingly positive.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Turkey, Middle East, Balkans
  • Author: Sarah Norgrove
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Governance Innovation
  • Abstract: The possibilities for future Asia-Pacific security cooperation between Australia and Canada are promising. Economic development and population growth mean that security challenges present themselves as opportunities. Australia and Canada are well positioned to influence regional approaches to transnational challenges such as crime, terrorism, piracy and environmental degradation, and to contribute to food, energy and cyber security. This paper explores the current state of security cooperation between Australia and Canada in the Asia-Pacific, and identifies opportunities to extend the relationship, focussing on collaborative efforts like economic and maritime cooperation, which may help tackle transnational security challenges.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Canada, Asia, Australia
  • Publication Date: 04-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies
  • Abstract: Asian cities are often cited as being particularly susceptible to extreme events, shifting weather patterns and environmental decline. They are the economic and social hubs of the region's developing countries, yet are highly exposed to risks that can weaken and damage critical urban systems and undermine progress on development goals.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Demographics, Economics, Environment, Migration
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Richard Youngs
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: The euro crisis has mobilized the masses and unleashed vitally important debates about changing the model of European integration, both economically and politically. Yet, as European governments deepen economic cooperation and the crisis appears to have calmed, European Union (EU) member states feel increasingly confident that fundamental political changes are not necessary. This is a dangerously short-sighted calculation. To build a truly democratic EU, citizens need to have a greater voice in decision making.
  • Topic: Debt, Economics, Markets, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Reform
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Monitor Deloitte
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Aspen Institute
  • Abstract: Over the next decade some 600 million new jobs will be needed to reverse the effects of the global financial crisis and avoid a further increase in unemployment. Small and growing businesses (SGBs) are a critical growth engine capable of creating many of these jobs Not only do SGBs create a large number of jobs—200 on average—but those jobs tend to be higher paying. One study showed that companies with 10–50 employees offer wage premiums of 10-30% over micro-enterprises with less than 10 employees, while the premium increases to 20-50% if the business has more than 50 employees. In short, creating new jobs is a critical component to improving livelihoods in the developing world, and SGBs are an important tool for driving this job creation, as well as producing other positive social and environmental returns for their communities by producing goods and services (health, education, sanitation, etc.) for the world's poorest.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, Foreign Aid, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Aspen Institute
  • Abstract: In many respects, the U.S. health care system is breathtakingly innovative. It produces new technology, medical procedures, and scientific knowledge at a dazzling speed, enabling patients to recover from diseases and injuries once thought incurable or untreatable. As a consequence, the U.S. has one of the highest survival rates for cancers, excels at acute and trauma care, and has produced half of the world's Nobel laureates.
  • Topic: Economics, Health, Social Stratification, Governance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Bill White(Chair), Leonard Coburn(Rapporteur)
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Aspen Institute
  • Abstract: Improved technology has led to enhanced oil and gas productivity at lower cost and significant production increases in the United States and Canada, dramatically changing energy perspectives. The shift from energy scarcity toward abundance is requiring new energy policies. The potential for the United States to become a net exporter of oil and gas changes American views of energy dependency. Shifts in global energy demand growth from developed to less developed countries, and especially to the Asia-Pacific region, require understanding of changing global energy trade. American energy will flow to markets where scarcity is the largest. Canada and the United States are reaping the benefits of this new world of oil and gas. Mexico will lag behind unless it addresses its chronic problems. Without reform, Mexico could become a net importer of all its hydrocarbons, a fundamental change from its current status. Responding to these changes will require knowledge, foresight, and strategies that are bold and comprehensive.
  • Topic: Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Canada, Mexico
  • Author: Bill Dickenson (Co-Chair), Phil Sharp (Co-Chair), Dave Grossman (Rapporteur)
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Aspen Institute
  • Abstract: The future of the U.S. electricity sector is hard to foresee – and it is never wise to overpay one's fortune tellers – but there appear to be some key trends and technologies that may reshape future electricity markets and determine the innovativeness, resilience, security, and global competitiveness of the sector. Discussions of the sector's past, present, and future formed the heart of the 2013 Aspen Institute Energy Policy Forum. This report summarizes and organizes some of the key insights from those discussions.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Markets, Natural Resources
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Tetsuji Yamada, Chia-Ching Chen, Chie Hanaoka, Seiritsu Ogura
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: Background: For the past two decades, more and more women in certain European countries, Japan, and the United States are giving birth to their first child at a considerably later age than ever before. It remains unclear as to what extent this age-related general fertility decline is affected by changing social and cultural norms. Method: The Global Centers of Excellence Survey was conducted by Osaka University in Japan (n=5313) in 2009. Multivariate regression analyses were conducted to examine the impact of psychosocial norms, cultural differences, and economic conditions on the perception of childbearing. Results: The findings suggest that a subjective measure of happiness has a significant influence on childbearing. A society with income inequalities between classes discourages childbearing. It is observed that women's higher labor force participation generates a negative impact on motherchild relations which causes discouragement of childbearing. A higher female labor force participation stemmed from a transition of a traditional society into a modern and marketoriented society discourages childbearing. Conclusions/implications: A woman's decision to delay childbearing is based on her perception of psychosocial norms with surrounding economic environment and her own value of opportunity in the market oriented society. Childbearing also imposes psycho-economic burdens on the working population under mix of a traditional, patriarchal society, and a modern market oriented framework. Childbearing incentives could be a strategic policy to encourage positive attitudes of childbearing in general and proper welfare policy, labor law(s), employment conditions, and social security system for a working mother with a child or children.
  • Topic: Economics, Gender Issues, Health, Poverty, Social Stratification, Labor Issues
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Europe, Israel, Asia
  • Author: Marjorie Pajaron
  • Publication Date: 07-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: This paper shows that the individual's bargaining power within the household, proxied by gender and educational attainment of household head, affects how remittances sent by Overseas Filipino Workers are spent in the Philippines. Gender of the household head, not of the remitter, matters in the allocation of remittances. As remittances increase, female heads with absent spouses spend less on alcohol and tobacco while male heads with absent spouses spend more on these goods; regardless of gender, household heads with less education allocate more to education than those with more education.
  • Topic: Economics, Education, Gender Issues
  • Political Geography: Israel, Asia, Philippines
  • Author: Leighton Ku, Brian Bruen
  • Publication Date: 02-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: Claims are sometimes made that immigrants use public benefits, such as Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families programs, more often than those who are born in the United States. This report provides analyses, using the most recent data from the Census Bureau, that counter these claims. In reality, low-income non-citizen immigrants, including adults and children, are generally less likely to receive public benefits than those who are native-born. Moreover, when non-citizen immigrants receive benefits, the value of benefits they receive is usually lower than the value of benefits received by those born in the United States. The combination of lower average utilization and smaller average benefits indicates that the overall cost of public benefits is substantially less for low-income non-citizen immigrants than for comparable native-born adults and children. The report also explains that the lower use of public benefits by non-citizen immigrants is not surprising, since federal rules restrict immigrants' eligibility for these public benefit programs.
  • Topic: Economics, Health, Humanitarian Aid, Markets, Immigration
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: William F. Shughart II, Diana W. Thomas
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: During his presidential campaign, Sen. Barack Obama criticized sharply the lax anti-trust law enforcement record of the George W. Bush administration. Subsequently, his first assistant attorney general for antitrust even went so far as to suggest that the Great Recession was, at least in part, caused by federal antitrust policy failures during the previous eight years. This paper sets out to investigate how and in what ways antitrust enforcement has changed since President Obama took office in 2009. We review four recent antitrust cases and the behavioral remedies that were imposed on the defendants in those matters in detail. We find that the Obama administration has been significantly more active in enforcing the antitrust laws with respect to proposed mergers than his two predecessors in the White House had been. In addition, the Federal Trade Commission, together with the Department of Justice, withdrew a thoughtful report on the enforcement of Section 2 of the Sherman Act and issued new merger guidelines and a new merger policy remedy guide, all of which have moved antitrust law enforcement away from traditional structural remedies in favor of very intrusive behavioral remedies in an unprecedented fashion. That policy shift has further transformed antitrust law enforcers into regulatory agencies, a mission for which they are not well-suited, resulting in the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission being more vulnerable to rent seeking.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Governance, Law Enforcement
  • Author: Brink Lindsey
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: For over a century, the trend line for the long-term growth of the U.S. economy has held remarkably steady. Notwithstanding huge changes over time in economic, social, and political conditions, growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has fluctuated fairly closely around an average annual rate of approximately 2 percent. Looking ahead, however, there are strong reasons for doubting that this historic norm can be maintained.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Financial Crisis, Governance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Mikkel Barslund, Thomas Barnebeck Andersen, Casper Worm Hansen, Thomas Harr, Peter Sandholt Jensen
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This Working Document provides an estimate of China's impact on the growth rate of resource-rich countries since its WTO accession in December 2001. The authors' empirical approach follows the logic of the differences-in-differences estimator. In addition to temporal variation arising from the WTO accession, which they argue was exogenous to other countries' growth trajectories, the authors exploit spatial variation arising from differences in natural resource wealth. In this way they can compare changes in economic growth in the pre- and post-accession periods between countries that benefited from the surge in demand for industrial commodities brought about by China's WTO accession and countries that were less able to do so. They find that that roughly one-tenth of the average annual post-accession growth in resource-rich countries was due to China's increased appetite for commodities. The authors use this finding to inform the debate about what will happen to economic growth in resource-rich countries as China rebalances and its demand for commodities weakens.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China
  • Author: Francesco Giumelli
  • Publication Date: 05-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: The European Union has devoted growing attention to sanctions since the entry into force of the Maastricht Treaty.1 In total, the Council has imposed Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) sanctions targeting countries, economic sectors, groups, individuals and entities on 27 different occasions. The novelty in the area of sanctions is that targets are not only states, as in the recent cases of Iran and Syria, but they are also individuals and non-state entities, e.g. anti-terrorist lists, President Robert Mugabe and his associates, and several companies connected with the military junta in Burma/Myanmar. Additionally, the contexts in which sanctions are utilised can be diverse, ranging from the protection of human rights to crisis management and non-proliferation. Despite the fact that the effectiveness of sanctions has been much debated, the EU has developed a sanctioning policy and intensified its adoption of sanctions. Sanctions were traditionally seen as a way to impose economic penalties as a means of extracting political concessions from targets, but EU sanctions do not always impose a cost nor do they always seek to induce behavioural change. To this extent, a new narrative may be needed.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Economics, Human Rights, International Cooperation, International Law, Sanctions
  • Political Geography: Europe, Burma, Myanmar
  • Author: Pascal Abb
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: This paper reviews contending realist assumptions about domestic and systemic impulses for balancing behavior, derives a set of corresponding hypotheses for state actions and submits them to a statistical large‐n analysis for testing. A total of 18 highly conflict‐prone dyads of states are observed over lengthy periods of time in order to gather data for a regression analysis of the effects of different impulses on both the external and internal balancing behavior of the weaker states. In accordance with the results, it is argued that domestic (or unit‐level) factors are highly important in explaining the scope of balancing and often exert a stronger influence than do power gaps between states. As moderating factors, they are especially crucial in clarifying apparent cases of over‐ and underbalancing.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Theory, Power Politics, Governance
  • Author: Nicholas Carnes, Noam Lupu
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Does it matter that working-class citizens are numerically underrepresented in political offices throughout the world? For decades, the conventional wisdom in comparative politics has been that it does not, that lawmakers from different classes think and behave roughly the same in office. In this paper, we argue that this conclusion is misguided. Past research relied on inappropriate measures of officeholders' class backgrounds, attitudes, and choices. Using data on 18 Latin American legislatures, we show that lawmakers from different classes bring different economic attitudes to the legislative process. And using data on one least-likely case, we show that pre-voting decisions like sponsoring legislation often differ dramatically along social class lines, even when political parties control higher-visibility decisions like roll-call votes. The unequal numerical or descriptive representation of social classes in the world's legislatures has important consequences for the substantive representation of different class interests.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy, Social Stratification, Socialism/Marxism
  • Political Geography: Latin America
  • Author: Phillip C. Saunders
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Upon taking office in January 2009, Obama administration officials proclaimed a U.S. “return to Asia.” This pronouncement was backed with more frequent travel to the region by senior officials (Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's first trip was to Asia) and increased U.S. participation in regional multilateral meetings, culminating in the decision to sign the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and to participate in the East Asia Summit (EAS) at the head-of-state level. The strategic “rebalance to Asia” announced in November 2011 builds on these earlier actions to deepen and institutionalize U.S. commitment to the Asia-Pacific region.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: United States, Israel, Asia
  • Author: Susan Schadler
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Governance Innovation
  • Abstract: The timely resolution of severe debt crises has long been one of the most difficult challenges for global financial cooperation. Focussing on the case of Greece, this paper examines how the euro crisis precipitated large International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans that violated the framework developed on the basis of the preceding decade to prevent a costly delay in restructuring. The paper reveals that safeguards meant to prevent the IMF from providing support for crisis countries without a reasonably clear path to debt sustainability failed. In fact, changes made in the context of the euro crisis to the IMF's framework for lending in severe sovereign debt crises will weaken the IMF's effectiveness in future crises. The paper concludes with four suggestions for how to re-establish an adequate framework for IMF intervention in severe debt crises in the future.
  • Topic: Debt, Economics, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis
  • Author: Ronald J. Deibert
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Governance Innovation
  • Abstract: Cyberspace is the global communications and information ecosystem, and it is now deeply embedded in all aspects of society, economics and politics. As cyberspace has grown in size and significance, the security of the domain has become highly contested among states, the private sector and civil society. This paper is divided into two parts: The first half focusses on the forces that are contributing to escalating international tensions and conflicts in cyberspace, largely driven by state-based concerns around national security. From this perspective, the exercise of state power in cyberspace is growing (to borrow an old phrase) in “leaps and bounds.” The second half employs a different meaning of “bounding power” — which refers to tying down, checking or restraining the exercise of power — and outlines steps that might be taken to lead us down an alternative path, whereby security and openness are both protected and preserved.
  • Topic: Security, Civil Society, Economics, Politics, Science and Technology, Governance
  • Author: Paweł Dariusz Wiśniewski
  • Publication Date: 11-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: The European Union's (EU's) Eastern Partnership, which aims to deepen cooperation between the EU and its Eastern European neighbors, must be modernized. Partner states and the EU have to acknowledge their own failures instead of playing a “blame game” and work together to make the partnership a success. If the Eastern Partnership initiative fails, both sides—along with Russia, whose role is key—will be responsible.
  • Topic: Economics, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Johan van den Heever
  • Publication Date: 11-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Governance Innovation
  • Abstract: For the purposes of this paper, the international monetary system (IMS) may be described as the various mechanisms and institutions that underpin the exchange of different national and regional currencies in world trade and finance. The history of this system is well documented — for instance, Eichengreen (2008) and Lin, Fardoust and Rosenblatt (2012) — and proposals aimed at its reform are not in short supply.
  • Topic: Economics, International Monetary Fund, Monetary Policy
  • Political Geography: Africa, South Africa
  • Author: Fujio Ohnishi
  • Publication Date: 11-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Governance Innovation
  • Abstract: This paper argues Japan's Arctic policy is in the process of developing toward more active engagement in the region. The first part of the paper discusses three milestones of Japan's past involvement in the Arctic, which consists of signing the Svalbard Treaty in 1920, engaging in polar science for more than 50 years and conducting the International Northern Sea Route Programme (INSROP) during the 1990s. The second part of the paper summarizes the current process of formulating Japan's Arctic interests at the ministerial level, as well as active discussions in private think tanks. Then, this paper considers opportunities and challenges for Japan in the Arctic, in areas such as Arctic shipping, oil and gas exploitation, and fisheries. The paper concludes with three strategic considerations to help formulate Japan's Arctic policy: the need to combine scientific findings with economic interests; possible diplomatic linkages between Arctic and East Asian states; and making diplomatic efforts toward subnational actors, such as indigenous groups in the region.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Development, Diplomacy, Economics
  • Political Geography: Israel
  • Author: Kai Sun
  • Publication Date: 11-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Governance Innovation
  • Abstract: As China's presence in the Arctic grows, international attention on China in the Arctic also grows. This paper clarifies why China is interested in the Arctic and its role in joining the Arctic play, and touches on future trends in this regard. The paper begins with a discussion of China's recent Arctic capacity building and diplomacy, and the surge of interest in Arctic affairs by Chinese social scientists and strategists in recent years. China looks north for basically four reasons: it is influenced by environmental changes in the Arctic; it is drawn by the business opportunities arising from the opening of the Arctic passages and better access to Arctic resources; and it is also committed to maintaining good governance in the Arctic — which is also in its best interests.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Oil, Natural Resources, Governance
  • Political Geography: China, Israel
  • Author: Young Kil Park
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Governance Innovation
  • Abstract: South Korea's interest in the Arctic reached a peak on May 15, 2013, when the country obtained permanent observer status in the Arctic Council. The country's interest in the Arctic began in the 2000s, following reports of new sea route created by accelerated thawing in the Arctic due to increasing temperatures. A South Korean shipping company completed Korea's first commercial freight voyage via the Arctic Ocean on October 22, 2013, after taking 35 days to make the journey from Ust-Luga port of Russia to Gwangyang port of Korea. This paper examines South Korea's interest and involvement in the Arctic and analyzes its challenges. The paper summarizes the Arctic-related activities the country has pursued so far; examines specific interests in the fields of science, sea routes and hydrocarbon resources, fishing and governance; and, finally, evaluates the challenges ahead. South Korea has made significant progress in entering the Arctic Ocean but many grave challenges must be addressed before the Arctic can become the source of economic prosperity.
  • Topic: Economics, Oil, Maritime Commerce, Natural Resources, Governance
  • Political Geography: Russia, Israel, South Korea, Korea
  • Author: Jerry McBeath
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Governance Innovation
  • Abstract: This paper concerns the US view of East Asian nations' involvement in the Arctic, emphasizing the perspective of Alaska, the only US Arctic state. It treats six different areas of US/Alaska policy: US national strategy for the Arctic; oil and gas exploration and development; marine transportation; fisheries; investment in infrastructure; and governance. The study finds few differences between the positions of Alaska and the United States, notwithstanding often-hostile rhetoric from leaders in the United States' farthest north frontier. In general terms, both Alaska and the United States have historically sought trade and investment ties with East Asian nations. China has now replaced Japan as Alaska's major trading partner, followed by South Korea and Taiwan.
  • Topic: Economics, Food, Infrastructure
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Taiwan, East Asia, South Korea, Alaska, Arctic
  • Author: Pierre Siklos, Martin T. Bohl, Arne C. Klein
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Governance Innovation
  • Abstract: Existing models of market herding suffer from several drawbacks. Measures that assume herd behaviour is constant over time or independent of the economy are not only economically unreasonable, but describe the data poorly. First, if returns are stationary, then a two-regime model is required to describe the data. Second, existing models of time-varying herding cannot be estimated from daily or weekly data, and are unable to accommodate factors that explain changes in this behaviour. To overcome these deficiencies, this paper proposes a Markov switching herding model. By means of time-varying transition probabilities, the model is able to link variations in herding behaviour to proxies for sentiment or the macroeconomic environment. The evidence for the US stock market reveals that during periods of high volatility, investors disproportionately rely on fundamentals rather than on market consensus.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: United States, Canada
  • Author: Amanda Glassman, Denizhan Duran, Rachel Silverman, Victoria Fan
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: More than ever, global health funding agencies must get better value for money from their investment portfolios; to do so, each agency must know the interventions it supports and the sub-populations targeted by those interventions in each country.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Health, Humanitarian Aid, Health Care Policy
  • Political Geography: India, Philippines, Ethiopia, Nigeria
  • Author: Benjamin Leo
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: The United States government has made repeated declarations over the last decade to align its assistance programs behind developing countries' priorities. By utilizing public attitude surveys for 42 African and Latin American countries, this paper examines how well the US has implemented this guiding principle. Building upon the Quality of Official Development Assistance Assessment (QuODA) approach, I identify what people cite most frequently as the 'most pressing problems' facing their nations and then measure the percentage of US assistance commitments that are directed towards addressing them. By focusing on public surveys over time, this analysis attempts to provide a more nuanced and targeted examination of whether US portfolios are addressing what people care the most about. As reference points, I compare US alignment trends with the two regional multilateral development banks (MDBs) – the African Development Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. Overall, this analysis suggests that US assistance may be only modestly aligned with what people in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America cite as their nation's most pressing problems. By comparison, the African Development Bank – which is majority-led by regional member nations – performs significantly better than the United States. Like the United States, however, the Inter-American Development Bank demonstrates a low relative level of support for people's top concerns.
  • Topic: Security, Crime, Development, Economics, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, America, Latin America
  • Author: Jonah Busch
  • Publication Date: 11-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: An international mechanism to reduce emissions from deforestation using carbon payments (REDD+) can be leveraged to make payments for forests' biodiversity as well. Paradoxically, under conditions consistent with emerging REDD+ programs, money spent on a mixture of carbon payments and biodiversity payments has the potential to incentivize the provision of greater climate benefits than an equal amount of money spent only on carbon payments.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Biosecurity
  • Author: Dean Karlan, Jonathan Zinman, Aishwarya Lakshmi Ratan
  • Publication Date: 11-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: The poor can and do save, but often use formal or informal instruments that have high risk, high cost, and limited functionality. This could lead to undersaving compared to a world without market or behavioral frictions. Undersaving can have important welfare consequences: variable consumption, low resilience to shocks, and foregone profitable investments.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, Financial Crisis
  • Author: Sadaf Lakhani
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United States Institute of Peace
  • Abstract: While Afghanistan's economy has experienced strong growth in the past decade, declining levels of overseas development assistance beginning in 2014 are expected to substantially reduce the country's economic growth rate, with attendant political implications.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, Natural Resources, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan
  • Author: Vanessa Ushie
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Istituto Affari Internazionali
  • Abstract: In the framework of the IAI-OCP Policy Center project this paper offers a conceptual framework to examine natural resource management in Turkey, Morocco and Italy and its implications for social and economic development. It recognizes the multiplicity of actors involved in natural resource management at the local, national and global level. It then proceeds by 1) advancing a definition of natural resources to be used in the context of this project; 2) highlighting relevant emerging issues in the empirical debates on natural resource management within economics and politics; 3) developing a series of indicators aimed at assessing the dimensions of the management and use of natural resources. In general, this conceptual framework adopts a flexible and plural approach that reflects the multidisciplinary nature of natural resource management, and recognizes the importance of country-specific factors in the relationship between natural resource management and socio-economic development.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Natural Resources, Sociology
  • Political Geography: Europe, Turkey, North Africa, Italy, Morocco
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Oxfam Publishing
  • Abstract: Land distribution in Colombia is extremely unequal, with concentration of land ownership among the highest in the world, and second highest in Latin America after Paraguay. Inequality in access to land is closely linked to rural poverty, and is both a cause and a consequence of the internal armed conflict that has ravaged the country for more than half a century. During this period, violence and forced displacement have caused dispossession involving up to 8 million hectares – more than the area currently devoted to agriculture throughout the country.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Democratization, Economics, Reform
  • Political Geography: Colombia, Latin America
  • Author: Dieter Ernst
  • Publication Date: 11-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: East-West Center
  • Abstract: A defining characteristic of today's international trading system is that plurilateral trade agreements like the Information Technology Agreement (ITA) are gaining in importance relative to the gridlocked Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations. These more selective trade agreements pose new and so far little understood challenges for the governance of the international trading system, especially with regard to the distribution of liberalization gains among participants which differ in their stage of development, their institutions, and their resources and capabilities.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: South Asia
  • Author: Greg Distelhorst, Jens Hainmueller, Richard M. Locke
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: This paper offers the first empirical analysis of the introduction of lean manufacturing as a "capability building" strategy for improving labor standards in global supply chains. Buyer interventions to improve supplier management systems have been proposed to augment existing, and widely deemed insufficient, private regulation of labor standards, but these claims have yet to be systematically investigated. We examine Nike Inc.'s multiyear effort to promote lean manufacturing and its associated high-performance work systems in its apparel supply base across eleven developing countries. Adoption of lean manufacturing techniques produces a 15 percentage point reduction in serious labor violations, an effect that is robust to alternative specifications and an examination of pre-trends in the treatment group. Our finding contradicts previous suggestions that pressing suppliers to adopt process improvements has deleterious effects on labor conditions and highlights the importance of relational contracting and commitment-oriented approaches to improving labor standards in the developing world.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues
  • Political Geography: India
  • Author: Richard Snyder, Maria Angelica Bautista, Angelica Duran-Martinez, Jazmin Sierra
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: How do international inequalities in funding, institutional support and research capacity affect the production of social science knowledge? New data on the political economy of research in Latin America shows that funding for social science is organized in sharply contrasting ways across countries, with three types of capital -- foreign, domestic public, and domestic private -- playing distinct roles. This cross-national variation in the role played by each type of capital, in turn, has contrasting consequences for (1) who produces knowledge, that is, for the professional credentials and networks needed to gain access to funding for research; and (2) for the kind of knowledge produced, especially for the comparative scope and policy relevance of research. A focus on cross-national variation in how social science is funded provides a stronger understanding of knowledge production in the Global South.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: Argentina, Colombia, Latin America, Peru
  • Author: Richard Snyder, Kelly Bay, Cecilia Perla
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: This article explores the political economy of social science research in the Global South by analyzing new bibliometric and survey data on Peru, a lower-middle income country with weak domestic funding and institutional support for scholarship. The results of the analysis show that although research in Peru is heavily dependent on foreign funding, the multiplicity of funding institutions gives scholars a surprising degree of autonomy. Still, dependence on foreign funding produces conditions with potentially harmful consequences for the quality and impact of research. Five conditions are considered: multiple institutional affiliations, hyperproductivity, forced interdisciplinarity, parochialism, and a weak national community of scholars.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Education, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Latin America, Peru
  • Author: Nicholas Robinson
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for the Advanced Study of India
  • Abstract: Poor implementation of social welfare programs is a chronic challenge in developing countries such as India. Yet, despite the large number of people affected and the serious consequences of implementation failure, there have been few studies, and even less theorization, of grievance redress in these contexts. Based on fieldwork conducted by the author, this article examines grievance redress for social welfare programs in the Indian states of Madhya Pradesh and Bihar. It argues that the idea of accountability regimes, which has been developed in the administrative law literature, provides a more useful framework for understanding grievance redress than commonly invoked alternatives, such as a purely rights-based approach or an ad hoc analysis of the costs and benefits of specific redress mechanisms. While not rejecting either of these alternatives, it claims that an accountability regime approach that focuses on how officials are monitored and controlled through grievances is both more descriptively complete and more likely to generate a wider range of useful policy prescriptions.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, Developing World
  • Political Geography: South Asia
  • Author: Anna-Elisabeth Thum, Marten von Werder
  • Publication Date: 11-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This report reviews national and private initiatives to allow the elderly to continue their participation in the Finnish labour market and provides an analysis of the labour market and living conditions of seniors. We are interested in how those over 50 can be engaged in various forms of employment and lifelong learning. We find strong evidence that Finland generally provides good institutional conditions for active ageing. The quick and early ageing process was tackled by the fundamental pension reform that already prolonged retirement substantially and will probably facilitate later retirement as the attitudes concerning retirement change. On the other hand, Finland still seems to lack behind the other Nordic welfare states, has considerable problems in providing the same health conditions to low educated people in physically demanding occupations and could - with respect to family pension in particular - invest further effort in reforming the pension system. While many of the reforms Finland has conducted seem to be favourable and transferable to other European countries that still face the steepest phases of ageing in their societies, a reluctance towards changing attitudes that we observe in Finland, shows that organizing active ageing is a long-term project.
  • Topic: Demographics, Economics, Health, Labor Issues
  • Political Geography: Europe, Finland
  • Author: Anna-Elisabeth Thum, Nicolas Contreras, Elisa Martellucci
  • Publication Date: 11-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This report aims at understanding how persons aged 50 years and older are and can be integrated into the working society in Belgium. We are interested in how people in this age group can be induced to engage in various forms of employment and lifelong learning. Based on secondary literature, descriptive databases as well as interviews with experts and focus groups, we find that the discussion on active ageing in Belgium is well advanced with numerous contributions by academics, stakeholders, social partners, the public administration and interest groups. The wish to retire at 60 is widely shared but at the same time the majority of Belgium's elderly are able and would be willing to work under specific conditions. Therefore, we recommend that Belgium should invest in more flexible systems including a revision of the tax scheme, such as the part-time retirement system proposed by the insurance company Delta Lloyd. An equally relevant recommendation would be to ensure that public employment agencies, employers and agencies that provide training encourage all workers to work and learn regardless of their age.
  • Topic: Demographics, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues
  • Political Geography: Europe, Belgium
  • Author: Bernard Delbecque
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This paper argues that it should be possible to complement Europe's Economic and Monetary Union with an insurance-type shock absorption mechanism to increase the resilience of member countries to economic shocks and reduce output volatility. Such a mechanism would neither require the establishment of a central authority, nor would it lead to permanent transfers between countries. For this mechanism to become a reality, however, it would be necessary to overcome certain technical problems linked to the difficulty of anticipating correctly the position of an economy in the business cycle.
  • Topic: Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Julian Culp, Johannes Plagemann
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: Rising powers are fundamentally shifting the relations of power in the global economic and political landscape. International political theory, however, has so far failed to evaluate this nascent multipolarity. This article fills this lacuna by synthesizing empirical and normative modes of inquiry. It examines the transformation of sovereignty exercised by emerging democracies and shows that – in stark contrast to emerging democracies' foreign policy rhetoric – the "softening" of sovereignty has become the norm. The present paper assesses this softening of sovereignty on the basis of a "democratic-internationalist" conception of global justice. This conception holds that global justice demands the establishment of reasonably democratic transnational relations that enable people themselves to determine what else justice requires. Because we find that the exercise of soft sovereignty by emerging democracies contributes to the realization of reasonably democratic transnational relations, we conclude that this nascent multipolarity ought to be welcomed from the democratic-internationalist view of global justice.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Brazil
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci, Hamza Kanar
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The economic reforms recently implemented in Cuba do not adequately deal with the structural issues that hamper the country's economic development. The paper presents a system dynamics model to investigate Cuba's development process, and a simulation analysis to compare different policy scenarios that may be realized in the future as economic reforms will continue. The results indicate that the most effective development policy would be to combine active public policies to enhance the R sector, on the one hand, and foster the emergence of an efficient private sector that will develop the capital infrastructure of the economy, on the other.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Latin America, Caribbean
  • Author: Mike Callaghan
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Lowy Institute for International Policy
  • Abstract: It is important that the Brisbane G20 Leaders' Summit be a success. It must help 'reenergise' the G20, because the world needs an effective G20. But there is more at stake for Australia. If the G20 is not effective, any alternative forum for international economic cooperation would likely exclude Australia.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Development, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Australia
  • Author: Stephen Grenville, Mike Callaghan, Hugh Jorgensen, Marty Harris, Daniela Strube, Maria Monica Wihardja, Philip Anderson
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Lowy Institute for International Policy
  • Abstract: This issue of the Monitor deals with four topics: long-term financing for investment, combating tax evasion and avoidance, fighting corruption and global energy governance. Consistent with the approach taken in previous issues of the Monitor, the question explored within each topic is 'how can the G20 add value?'
  • Topic: Climate Change, Corruption, Economics, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Hugh Jorgensen, Mike Callaghan, Stephen Pickford, Richard Gray, Steven Bardy, Graham Hodges, Ross Buckley
  • Publication Date: 07-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Lowy Institute for International Policy
  • Abstract: This issue of the Monitor canvases the role of the G20 in strengthening financial regulation. It contains articles by Hugh Jorgensen (Lowy Institute), Stephen Pickford (Chatham House), Richard Gray (Westpac), myself, Steven Bardy (Australian Securities and Investment Commission), Ross Buckley (University of New South Wales) and Graham Hodges (ANZ). It also includes a summary of the discussion at a regional 'Think 20' seminar recently held at the Lowy Institute.
  • Topic: Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Reform
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: John Ravenhill, Mark P Thirlwell, Mike Callaghan, Peter W. Gallagher, Brett Williams
  • Publication Date: 06-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Lowy Institute for International Policy
  • Abstract: This issue of the G20 Monitor is devoted to the topic of international trade and the role of the G20. Over the coming months, the Monitor will be covering in detail a number of issues that are, or could be, on the G20 agenda. For example, over the next few months there will be an issue on 'Financial regulation and the G20' and another on 'Development and the G20'. The question we are asking on each issue is 'where can the G20 add value?'
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Infrastructure
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Europe
  • Author: Davin O'Regan, Peter Thompson
  • Publication Date: 06-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: A string of crises stretching back more than a decade has rendered Guinea-Bissau one of the most fragile states in Africa. This recurring cycle of political violence, instability, and incapacitated governance, moreover, has accelerated in recent years, most notably following a military coup in April 2012. Exploiting this volatility, trafficking networks have coopted key political and military leaders and transformed Guinea-Bissau into a hub for illicit commerce, particularly the multibillion dollar international trade in cocaine. This has directly contributed to instability in Senegal, Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Nigeria, and elsewhere in Africa. European and African organized criminal groups have likewise established ties to the Guinea-Bissau trade. Drawn by the lucrative revenues, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and other militant groups in West Africa have also been linked to Guinea-Bissau trafficking. Now commonly referred to as Africa's first narco-state, Guinea-Bissau has become a regional crossroads of instability.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Economics, Narcotics Trafficking, Fragile/Failed State
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Publication Date: 01-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Assembly at Columbia University
  • Abstract: Upstate legacy cities, once vibrant hubs for business and industry, education, culture, and community life, face daunting challenges as they strive to reposition themselves for an economy fueled not by the industrial manufacturing needs of past generations but increasingly by technological advancements, highly educated workers, global markets, and a spirit of innovation.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Globalization, Governance, Urbanization
  • Political Geography: United States, New York
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman, Bryan Gold, Chloe Coughlin-Schulte
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: US and Iranian strategic competition is heavily drive by four key factors–the success or failure of sanctions, the im0pact of that competition on the flow of Gulf energy exports, the success or failure of efforts to limit Iran's nuclear options and the broader prospect for arms control, and the prospects for accommodation of regime change. In recent years, the key variable has been ways in which sanctions on Iran have changed US and Iranian competition since the fall of 2011, and helped lead to a tentative set of Iranian agreements with the UN's P5+1--the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, namely United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, and France, plus Germany--in November 2013.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Oil, Regime Change, Sanctions
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, France, Germany
  • Author: Jake Cusack, Matt Tilleard
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper outlines a new tool for policymakers to deploy to encourage private-sector development in developing nations. Specifically it argues that in fragile states there are systemic failures that cause an intermediation gap between sources of capital and entrepreneurs seeking investment. This gap prevents investment by raising transaction costs and exacerbating information asymmetry. We present a case study of this gap as observed in our work in South Sudan. Then we propose a model of investment facilitation that bridges the intermediation gap. The model is based on donor funding of a neutral nongovernment facilitator to identify attractive investment opportunities, link them to capital, and facilitate transactions.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: Africa, South Sudan
  • Author: Carl Meacham, Robert Funk
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: In the first round of Chile's presidential elections on November 17, Michelle Bachelet, of the progressive New Majority (Nueva Mayoría) coalition, commanded a resounding lead. Garnering 46.7 percent of the popular vote—and putting her 20 points ahead of Alliance for Chile (Alianza por Chile) candidate Evelyn Matthei, her nearest rival—the former president is the likely victor in the runoff elections scheduled for December 15.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, Economics, Politics
  • Political Geography: Latin America
  • Author: Douglas Farah, Robert D. Lamb, Carl Meacham
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The project that culminated in this report was conceived just over a year ago as an initiative to assess the major accomplishments in strengthening the Colombian government's efforts to bring peace and stability to its countryside.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: Latin America
  • Author: Matthew P. Goodman, Scott Miller
  • Publication Date: 11-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Economic integration has been a focus of Asia-Pacific affairs for the last quarter century. To support and strengthen economic ties, governments in the region have pursued an array of integration initiatives, from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum launched in 1989 to bilateral and regional trade negotiations currently underway. APEC has been the most successful tool of regional trade and investment integration thus far and has the potential to continue bridging differences between various integration efforts in the region. This report, with input from a wide variety of regional and topical experts, posits that developing a common, high-standard policy approach to value chains could pull together the various integration efforts to the substantial economic benefit of the entire region. The report offers eight recommendations for a broad-based APEC initiative building on existing work in the region on supply chains and connectivity.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Mohammad Niaz Asadullah, Nazmul Chaudhury
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: Using a primary school curricular standard basic mathematics competence test, this paper documents the low level of student achievement amongst 10-18 year old rural children in Bangladesh and tests the extent to which years spent in school increases learning. Our sample includes children currently enrolled in school as well as those out of school. About half of the children failed to pass the written competence test, a finding that also holds for those completing primary schooling. Even after holding constant a wide range of factors such as household income, parental characteristics, current enrollment status, and a direct measure of child ability, there remains a statistically significant correlation between schooling attained and basic mathematics competence above and beyond primary school completion. This pattern is more pronounced for girls who have lower competence compared to boys despite higher grade completion.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Islam, Poverty
  • Political Geography: South Asia