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3091. Picking Up the Pieces: Comparing the Social Impact of Finacial Crisis in Mexico and Argentina

Author:
Manuel Pastor and Carol Wise
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
After a committed process of macroeconomic stabilization that began during the mid-1980s in most of Latin America, many observers began to speak of the need for a “second generation” of reforms that could more firmly establish the bases for economic growth and correct for longstanding distributional inequities. By the mid-1990s serious reformers like Argentina and Mexico seemed to be on the cusp of tackling this distributional backlog by launching so-called second phase market reforms meant to correct for earlier shortcomings in the social realm (Naím 1995; Pastor and Wise 1999). However, in both cases, financial crises erupted: Mexico's crash of December 1994, which saw a forty percent devaluation of the peso and a massive outflow of portfolio capital; and, more recently, Argentina's 2002 meltdown, which while simmering since the Brazilian devaluation of 1999, finally caused the country's commitment to a fixed exchange rate to be abandoned.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

3092. Why Delegate the Allocation of Foreign Aid to Multilateral Organizations? Principal-Agent Problems and Multilateralism

Author:
Helen Milner
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Why do countries delegate the distribution of foreign aid to international institutions? Specifically, why have the advanced industrial countries chosen to distribute part of their foreign aid through multilateral organizations, such as the European Union (EU), World Bank, IMF, UN, and regional development banks (RDBs)? The delegation of aid provision to an international institution is puzzling. Why would governments relinquish control over their aid if they are a useful instrument of statecraft? Governments delegate aid delivery to international institutions when their publics lack information about the consequences of aid and fear that their governments will deviate from their wishes concerning its use. By using the international organization to send aid, the government issues a credible signal to voters about the use of foreign aid. This signal leaves all actors better off by helping to solve a principal-agent problem in domestic politics. When publics are skeptical about the benefits of aid, governments are more likely to turn aid over to multilateral organizations in order to reassure taxpayers that their money is being well spent. Using data on about 20 donor countries of the OECD from 1960-2000, I investigate the sources of multilateral giving, showing that public opinion has the expected negative relationship to multilateral aid-giving.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and United Nations

3093. The Bombardier-Embraer Dispute and its Implications for Western Hemisphere Integration

Author:
Jonathan P. Doh
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Government subsidies are a pervasive problem for international trade and economic development. Subsidies distort investment decisions, generally squander scarce public resources, skew public expenditures toward unproductive uses, unfairly discriminate against efficient industries and firms, and prompt wasteful overconsumption of some products over others. Despite efforts to limit subsidies through trade and investment policy disciplines, subsidization remains a constant on the global trade policy and international business landscape.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

3094. North American Economic Integration Policy Options

Author:
Earl H. Fry
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
At the end of 2003, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will have been in effect for a decade, and although the accord will not be fully implemented for another five years, almost all of its important provisions are already in place. The model for NAFTA was the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), which was put in motion in 1989 and was to be fully implemented within 10 years but was superseded by NAFTA after only five years in operation. NAFTA itself has created the world's largest free-trade area, encompassing the United States, Mexico, and Canada; 21.3 million square miles of territory; 422 million people; almost $12 trillion in yearly production; and $615 billion in annual three-way merchandise trade. North American trade, investment, government-to-government, and people-to-people exchanges have increased dramatically over the past decade and decisionmakers in Washington, D.C., Mexico City, and Ottawa will soon have to consider whether continental economic integration should move to the next level in the form of a customs and monetary union or even a common market possessing many of the attributes of the European Union (EU).
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Canada, Latin America, Central America, North America, Mexico, and Ottawa

3095. Micro-Economic Approaches to Evaluating the Burden of Malaria

Author:
Pia Malaney
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
The links between malaria and poverty are both obvious and subtle. While the correlation between the two is apparent, directions and mechanisms of causation are less so, and different methodological approaches to understanding the relationship provide widely divergent perspectives on the impact of the disease. Recent macroeconomic studies have suggested that in highly malarious countries the disease may be responsible for reducing economic growth by up to 1.3 percentage points a year. This methodology, however, functions independently of the chains of causation and cannot shed much light on underlying mechanisms. Micro-economic studies, which aggregate the cost per case to households, find a much smaller impact, generally less than one percent of per capita GDP. The traditional cost-of-illness methodology, which forms the basis of most of these studies, however, was designed to study illnesses that represent a far smaller disease burden. The pandemic nature of malaria presents economic costs that the traditional model is simply not able to capture. The paper explores the difference between the results of the different methodological approaches, examining some of the mechanisms through which malaria can affect long-term economic growth and development, and expands the cost-of-illness methodology to incorporate these effects.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Poverty, and Malaria
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3096. The Rise and Fall of the Indonesian Economy

Author:
Joseph J. Stern
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
The Indonesia crisis was particularly severe. What began as an economic crisis quickly evolved in to a political crisis. Most analysts failed to recognize the growing weaknesses of the economy and were caught by surprise. In part Indonesia's economic success over the period 1985 through 1997 and its records on policy reforms had persuaded many that, despite some obvious weaknesses, it would come through the Asian crisis with minimum damage. A closer analysis of the Indonesia's economic history shows that the initial reforms, carefully crafted by a highly respected group of economic technocrats, tackled many of the most serious distortions that held back economic growth. But as these reforms began to pay off in terms of higher growth rates, sharply declining poverty rates, and an increased level of integration in the global economy, the desire for further reforms waned. Over time the beneficiaries of the early reforms allied themselves with the political elites to block further reforms and in effect reduced the power of the technocrats to resist a return to the dirigiste tendencies that had marked much of Indonesia's early development efforts. While the reforms were important, in retrospect they were insufficient to create an institutional infrastructure that could weather a dramatic economic downturn.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, Poverty, Financial Crisis, Reform, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

3097. Employment-Poverty Linkages and Policies: The Case of Bolivia

Author:
Luis Carlos Jemio and Maria del Carmen Choque
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This study focuses on analysing the linkages between output growth, employment and poverty, at both the macro and micro levels. At the macro level, the linkage between poverty and output growth is conceptualised in terms of the average productivity of the employed work force, which in turn gets reflected in low levels of real wages and low levels of earnings in self-employment. At the micro level of a household, the same linkage between poverty and employment operates through the type and productivity of economic activities in which the earning members of a household are engaged, the low level of human capital of the members of the workforce, the dependency burden that limits participation in the workforce, and the availability of remunerative employment.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Poverty, Labor Issues, and Employment
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

3098. The Measure of India: What Makes Greatness?

Author:
Joydeep Mukherji
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
I join you tonight to consider India on the scales of greatness. In other words, to ask: by what standards do people regard a state as great? And how does India conform to those standards? I must say at the outset, that these are not questions on which I personally would fixate. Greatness in terms of power is not a standard that moves me as a human being. My impulse when looking at countries is to say, “what's so great about being great?” I think a country's taxi drivers tell us more about it than the number of nuclear bombs it might possess. The number of Ph.D. holders, engineers, and writers driving taxicabs in a country, and where they came from, tells me a lot about the country we're in and the country from whence they came. The taxi driver in Iran who complains bitterly about the ayatollahs and wants to talk about pop music and freedom, tells me something about Iran. The engineer who fled Nigeria for the opportunity possible in America, even if it's driving a cab, tells me something about Nigeria and the U.S. Great power has little to do with it.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
America, Iran, South Asia, India, and Nigeria

3099. India's Slow Conversion to Market Economics

Author:
Joydeep Mukherji
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
According to the Bible, Saul of Tarsus converted almost instantly to Christianity on the road to Damascus. Subsequently, he neither ate nor drank for three days. The conversion of the world's second largest country, India, to a new way of life based on free markets and private enterprise will not be so rapid or disruptive. Nevertheless, India's conversion to market economics will, like Saul's, be thorough and deep. It will increasingly affect all of us in the global village, in which Indians constitute 17% of the inhabitants.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

3100. Privatization: From Policy Formulation to Implementation: The View from the Inside

Author:
Montek Singh Ahluwalia
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
It is both a privilege and a pleasure for me to deliver this year's Annual Fellows Lecture at the Center for Advanced Study of India. For many years in India, I used to receive an annual update on the activities of the Center when Dr. Francine Frankel visited Delhi and it is therefore particularly pleasant to visit the Center in person.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and New Delhi