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2001. Migrant Transfers as a Development Tool: The Case of Morocco

Author:
Nina Nyberg Sørensen
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In 2003, the Global Development Finance Annual Report took formal notice of remittances as an important source of external development finance for the first time, listing Morocco as the 4th largest remittance recipient among developing countries. This paper examines the positive and negative results of remittances on Moroccan development, as well as of other migration-driven social changes. It offers a brief historical background to Moroccan migration and examines more closely Moroccan emigration to the EU from the early 1960s. Remittance practices are discussed, as is the issue of return migration. The paper concludes by discussing prospects for general development in the country and summarizing policy options in the field.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Migration
Political Geography:
Europe and Morocco

2002. The Development Dimension of Migrant Transfers

Author:
Nina Nyberg Sørensen
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The current appreciation of remittances as a development tool is recent and several questions on how best to capture their development impact remain. This working paper addresses some of the fundamental questions pertaining to the role of remittances in the migrationdevelopment nexus. Apart from offering a conceptual tool for understanding of the importance of remittances for developing countries, the paper gives a global overview of various types of remittance flows, the dynamics of such flows and their possible developmental impact on developing countries, including those experiencing conflicts. The paper concludes by offering some ideas on how appropriate policy measures could contribute to making remittances into an effective development tool.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Migration
Political Geography:
Europe

2003. Migrant Transfers as a Development Tool: The Case of Somaliland

Author:
Peter Hansen
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the relationship between migration and development in the contest of Somaliland, where an estimated 25-40 per cent of the population receive regular remittances from abroad. The importance of remittances to the local economy and the impact of diaspora activities on local development are the main focus of the paper. In distinguishing four main waves of migration the paper presents a short history of the formation of the Somali diaspora. The paper also estimates the volume, importance and social distribution of individual and collective remittances to Somaliland. Finally the paper gives an overview of the functioning financial institutions in Somaliland and identifies the challenges ahead for an economy that is heavily dependent on remittances.
Topic:
Development, Human Welfare, and Migration
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

2004. Dynamics of Return and Sustainable Reintegration in a 'Mobile Livelihoods'-Perspective

Author:
Finn Stepputat
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This Paper was prepared by the Department of Globalisation and Governance Research at the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS) for the Danish International Development Assistance (Danida) entity of the Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and forms part of the Migration-Development Nexus Follow-up Study. It was discussed at a workshop in Copenhagen March 9, 2004, and subsequently revised for publication.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, and Education

2005. Refugees, Security and Development: Current Experience and Strategies of Protection and Assistance in 'The Region of Origin'

Author:
Finn Steppulat
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
On the background of the recently increased political interest in protecting and assisting refugees in their 'regions of origin' this working paper lays out a conceptual framework for analyzing the strategies, conditions and options for support to refugees areas in neighboring countries to countries in conflict. In particular relations between security–or the 'securitization of refugees'–and development and local integration are discussed. The working paper identifies the confinement and lack of freedom of movement of refugees as the major obstacle to local, or rather regional, integration of refugees. Finally, the working paper makes recommendations for action and research in relation to the strategy of protecting and assisting refugees close to the countries they have left.
Topic:
Development, Human Welfare, Migration, and Third World
Political Geography:
United States

2006. The Saudi Security Apparatus: Military and Security Services - Challenges and Developments

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Nawaf Obaid
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Both Saudi Arabia's security situation, and the Saudi security apparatus, are undergoing major changes. Saudi Arabia no longer faces a major threat from Iraq, but must deal with the growing risk that Iran will become a nuclear power. This confronts Saudi Arabia with hard strategic choices as to whether to ignore Iran's efforts to proliferate, seek US military assistance in deterring Iran and possibly in some form of missile defense, or to acquire more modern missiles and its own weapons of mass destruction.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Development, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

2007. State Development Planning: Did it Create an East Asian Miracle?

Author:
Benjamen Powell
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Independent Institute
Abstract:
East Asian countries have recorded large increases in per capita GDP over the last fifty years. Some observers have referred to this growth as an “East Asian Miracle.” One popular explanation attributes the rapid growth to state led industrial development planning. This paper critically assesses the arguments surrounding state development planning and East Asia's growth. Whether the state can acquire the knowledge necessary to calculate which industries it should promote and how state development planning can deal with political incentive problems faced by planners are both examined. When we look at the development record of East Asian countries we find that to the extent development planning did exist, it could not calculate which industries would promote development, so it instead promoted industrialization. We also find that what rapid growth in living standards did occur can be better explained by free markets than state planning because, as measured in economic freedom indexes, these countries were some of the most free market in the world.
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Israel and East Asia

2008. Institutional Foundations of Economic Freedom: A time-series cross-section analysis

Author:
Xavier de Vanssay, Vincent Hildebrand, and Zane A. Spindler
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Independent Institute
Abstract:
Using time-series cross-section analysis, we provide additional empirical validation for the principal-agent model developed by Adserà, et al. (2003). In our innovation, efficient economic policy is proxied by “economic freedom” from the Fraser Institute database and “political institutions” are proxied by variables from the Database of Political Institutions. Our results suggest that the more credible the threat of removal from office, the more government officials will pursue efficient economic policies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, and Political Economy

2009. Firm Size, Technical Efficiency and Productivity Growth in Chinese Industry'

Author:
Dic Lo and Yuk-Shing Cheng
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Since the mid-1990s, China's state leadership has adopted a policy of nurturing the competitiveness of large state-owned industrial enterprises. The implications of this policy have been a matter of debate in the literature. This paper seeks to provide some useful input into the debate. With a view of investigating into the potential of long-term development of large enterprises, we estimate the “sequential production technology” in computing the Malmquist productivity index for various size-groups of enterprises in Chinese industry. Our findings indicate that large enterprises did register the fastest productivity growth and improvement in technical efficiency in the 1994-97 period. It thus appears that large-scale, mainly state-owned Chinese enterprises have exhibited the potential of m a king noticeable improvements and the relevant state policy does have its justification.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China

2010. Social origins of Ottoman industrialisation: Evidence from the Macedonian town of Naoussa

Author:
Costas Lapavitsas
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Ottoman industrialisation in cotton spinning was led by the town of Naoussa in Macedonia. This paper shows that Naoussa capitalists grasped the opportunities created by trade liberalisation, accumulated capital in domestic manufacture of woollen cloth, and secured a regular supply of low-wage female labour and free hydraulic energy. It is further shown that they took advantage of local institutional and political mechanisms within the Christian community independent of the relatively remote Ottoman state. But there was no capitalist transformation of agriculture, even though Naoussa capitalists often owned large land estates. Lack of broader institutional and political influence and absence of capitalist transformation of agriculture hampered the transformation of Naoussa capitalists from a provincial social group into a broad-based capitalist class.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Macedonia

2011. China's Nexus of Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: Making Sense of the Anomaly

Author:
Dic Lo
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Using a range of specifications that are standard in the relevant literature, this paper finds that China's rapid and sustained economic growth in the reform era has tended to be negatively correlated with its export growth and positively correlated with its import growth. This finding runs counter to widely -held perceptions on China's nexus of foreign trade and economic growth, and thus presents a serious challenge for interpretation. On the basis of some further regression analyses, and drawing on a number of applied studies on the subject matter, the paper argues that the finding is plausible and of complex ramifications. The conclusion which this paper arrives at, therefore, is that the Chinese experience has tended to be a case of strategic integration into the world market, rather than conforming to the standard neoclassical thesis of trade regime neutrality.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China

2012. The case for regional exchange rate arrangement in East Asia'

Author:
Takuji Kinkyo
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The Asian crisis highlighted the difficulties for developing countries to actively manage exchange rates in an environment of high capital mobility. Now it became fashionable to argue that the exchange rate should be either allowed to float freely or irrevocably fixed. This paper examines the case for regional exchange rate arrangements as an instrument to enhance the manageability of exchange rates and discusses the options in East Asia. It critically assess the existing proposal of common basket peg system and suggests that East Asia should seek to create an Asian-version of regional monetary system modeled on the EMS.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

2013. Disorderly adjustments to exchange rate misalignments: The experience of Korea'

Author:
Takuji Kinkyo
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper analyzes Korea's exchange rate dynamics before and during the crisis of 1997-98 by estimating the long-run fundamental exchange rate and the associated error correction model. The analysis suggests that although Korea's exchange rate was substantially overvalued before the crisis, the subsequent exchange rate dynamics could not fully be accounted by the need to correct misalignments. It was found that there was a large deviation from the short-run fundamental value of exchange rates, indicating the presence of “overshooting of the overshooting equilibrium” during the crisis. The findings have important policy implications for crisis management in emerging market economies.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Korea

2014. Transmission channels of capital flow shocks: why Korean crisis was so severe'

Author:
Takuji Kinkyo
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The Asian crisis highlighted the vulnerability of emerging market economies faced by sudden capital flow reversals. An important question that has critical implications for crisis management is how negative shocks in capital inflows were transmitted to economic activities, transforming financial instability into fully-fledged crises. Using VARs, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of capital flow shocks during the Korean crisis of 1997-98. Although it is commonly believed that severe economic contractions were caused by credit crunch, the analysis suggests that the major constraint for production was a steep rise in prices of imported inputs due to sharp exchange rate depreciations.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Asia and Korea

2015. Does South Africa Suffer from the Fear of Float' Syndrome?An Analysis of the Efficacy and Challenges of a Managed Floating Exchange Rate Regime with Financial Integration'

Author:
Olano Makhubela
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The paper examines whether South Africa suffers from a 'fear of float' syndrome. The analysis also covers the efficacy and challenges of a managed floating exchange rate regime. I use time series data, volatility equations and ARCH models to test the volatility of South Africa's exchange rate, interest rate and foreign exchange reserves. Evidence shows that South Africa has volatile interest and exchange rates, but not foreign exchange reserves. Yet, South Africa does not seem to suffer from an extreme and chronic form of 'fear of floating'. South Africa requires financial integration to finance its current account deficits and to complement its low savings rate. Yet, evidence indicates that both capital account openness and foreign exchange control liberalization have no robust impact on growth. The authorities' intervention in the 2001 currency crisis did not help. Hence, I recommend that South Africa should use interest rates early to target both inflation and foreign exchange rates. Challenges remain in the form of relatively high interest rates, volatile capital flows, perceptions, destabilizing speculation, and loopholes in foreign exchange controls.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
South Africa

2016. Globalisation and Comparative Economics: Of Efficiency, Efficient Institutions, and Late Development'

Author:
Dic Lo
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Does globalisation entail a demand for uniformity, or diversity, of the (political) economic institutions of nation-states? What is the theoretical underpinning of the demand? And what are the implications of the demand for economic development? The conventional literature known as comparative economic systems has been unable to answer these question, because there is an intrinsic tension between its methodology (the neoclassical framework of individualistic rational choices and their equilibrium) and the subject matter (the multiplicity of economic institutions and development experiences in the real world). The new comparative economics has consisted of a variety of attempts to cope with this tension: some aimed at preserving the neoclassical framework at a m o re fundamental level, while some others aim e d at transcending the framework to arrive at a new theory of economic system s and development. This paper argues that attempts that adhere to the neoclassical tradition is likely to lead to dead ends, while attempts that encompass collective as well as individualistic rationality represent m o re promising directions. Fuller developments of the literature, however, require incorporating objectified institutions and paradigmised technology in to its sphere of inquiry. It is submitted that there are important lessons to learn from classical political economy and their modern presentations, particularly Marxian theories of the social forces of production, in this regard.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy

2017. Household water and sanitation services in Saudi Arabia: an analysis of economic, political and ecological issues'

Author:
Elie Elhadj
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This study evaluates Saudi Arabia's investment in household water and sanitation services (WSS) over the past three decades or so. It finds that over one half of Saudi householders still have no municipal water connections and two thirds are without sanitation connections. Saudi cities have no rain water drainage system s to deal with the brief and occasional, but severe deluges of winters. Desalinated water is transmitted across hundreds of kilometers of desert terrain to two major urban centers (Riyadh and Qaseem) that are rich in groundwater reserves while their local water is used in irrigation.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Environment, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Saudi Arabia

2018. Camels don't fly, deserts don't bloom: an assessment of Saudi Arabia's experiment in desert agriculture'

Author:
Elie Elhadj
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Severe arid conditions constrained agricultural production and population size in the Arabian Peninsula over the millennia (except around oases and in parts of Yemen). An abrupt change in Saudi Arabia started in the 1980s to make the desert bloom. This study examines whether or not the Saudi experiment in desert irrigation has been worthwhile in terms of cost and benefit. It concludes that the project was a waste of money and water on a grand scale.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Environment, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Sinai Peninsula

2019. The household water crisis in Syria's Greater Damascus Region'

Author:
Elie Elhadj
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Damascus residents talk in recent years of long periods of daily water shut-offs for most months especially between June and the following January. “ In 2001 … stringent water rationing was in force in Damascus… the authorities … shut off the capital's piped water supply for 20 hours each day (compared with 16 hours previously) from July of that year. Europa Publications (2002: p.979).”
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Environment, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe and Syria

2020. Compensating Differentials and the Queue For Public Sector Jobs: Evidence from Egyptian Household Survey Data'

Author:
Mona Said
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This Paper considers the determinants of male and female pay in the public and private sectors by estimating a joint model of sector allocation and wage determination using cross-sectional data from the Egyptian 1987 and 1997 labour force surveys. The results points to the profound impact of the graduate public sector employment guarantee on labour market segmentation in Egypt. In particular, the level of educational attainment became the most important factor in sorting workers between sectors. Comparison of the 1987 and 1997 results highlight that the strong impact of the public sector employment guarantee on the labour market in the 1980s was weakened in the 1990s for males but remains important for females. Moreover, risk-averse individuals (proxied by those who have greater financial responsibility in their households) have a greater probability of choosing public sector than private sector employment. These results are consistent with the effective operation of the guarantee for more highly educated workers and with time based queuing for guaranteed positions. A model of compensating wage differentials is then defined and estimated, in order to quantify the value of arguably the three most important non-pecuniary aspects of public sector employment: job security, fringe benefits (especially comprehensive retirement pensions) and lower effort and shorter hours which allow workers to supplement income through obtaining a second job. Estimates of the publicprivate differentials, correcting for differences in characteristics and selectivity, indicate a public sector disadvantage for males and a small advantage for females in 1987. Relative public sector wages improved for both males and females in 1997, and when adjustments for non-wage benefits are included, public sector premia are observed in all segments of the public sector for both males and females. It also emerged that the single most important adjustment factor leading to the change in the differential is the value of job stability, which drives up the differential in favour of the public sector, particularly in manufacturing. The results highlight the importance of job security as the major factor determining the persistence of queues for public sector jobs in Egypt.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Egypt

2021. Assessing the Role of Foreign Direct Investment in China's Economic Development: Macro Indicators and Insights from Sectoral-Regional Analyses'

Author:
Dic Lo
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to assess the role of FDI in China's economic development with reference to the broader literature on FDI and late development. Three main findings come out from the analyses in the paper. First, it is found that FDI tends to promote the improvement in allocative efficiency, while having a negative impact on productive efficiency. Second, insofar as FDI does promote overall productivity growth, this tends to be a matter of cumulative causation rather than one of single-direction causation. Third, in the context of a comparative analysis of two distinctive regional models, it is found that the economic impact of FDI tends to be more favourable in the inward-looking, capital-deepening pattern of development (the 'Shanghai model') than that in the export-oriented, labour-intensive pattern (the 'Guangdong model'). Further analyses, however, suggest that the 'Shanghai model' has its intrinsic problems of sustainability. The scope for applying it to China as a whole is thus judged to be limited.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Shanghai

2022. Making States Work: From State Failure to State-Building

Author:
Michael Ignatieff, Ramesh Thakur, and Simon Chesterman
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
It is frequently assumed that the collapse of state structures, whether through defeat by an external power or as a result of internal chaos, leads to a vacuum of political power. This is rarely the case. The mechanisms through which political power are exercised may be less formalized or consistent, but basic questions of how best to ensure the physical and economic security of oneself and one's dependants do not simply disappear when the institutions of the state break down. Non-state actors in such situations may exercise varying degrees of political power over local populations, at times providing basic social services from education to medical care. Even where non-state actors exist as parasites on local populations, political life goes on.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and Peace Studies

2023. EU-UN Partnership in Crisis Management: Developments and Prospects

Author:
Alexandra Novosseloff
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The EU and the UN have taken many practical steps recent years to formalize their relationship. As part this process, the EU has also achieved increasing political influence within the UN, although progress on this front has been limited in the Security Council.
Topic:
Development, Peace Studies, and United Nations

2024. The Future of UN State-Building: Strategic and Operational Challenges and the Legacy of Iraq

Author:
Kirsti Samuels and Sebastian von Einsiedel
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Whether by accident or design, the United Nations increasingly finds itself in operations that seek to build or re-build the institutions of a state. This report discusses the challenges facing the UN in such state-building activities in the post-Iraq environment. Three sorts of challenges are reviewed: those arising from a lack of conceptual clarity on the aim of state-building, those resulting from the transformed strategic environment, and those operational and strategic challenges inherent to the complex task of state-building.
Topic:
Development, Government, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

2025. Feasibility Study on the European Civil Peace Corps

Author:
Catriona Gourlay
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
This study explores how the proposal for a European Civil Peace Corps (ECPC) might contribute to EU civilian capacities for conflict prevention, crisis management and post conflict peace building. It tracks the progressive identification of EU civilian crisis management with the activities conducted within the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) in the Council, and shows how this approach is limited and institutionally divorced from conflict prevention and crisis management activities supported by the Commission.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Development
Political Geography:
Europe

2026. Macroeconomic Policies to Increase Social Mobility and Growth in Bolivia

Author:
Lykke E. Andersen, Alice J. Brooks, and Alejandro F. Mercado
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Poverty in Bolivia continues to be among the highest in Latin America despite decades of concerted national and international efforts to reduce it. Bolivia has meticulously followed the recommendations of the Washington consensus at the same time as external aid has been generous and foreign direct investment has boomed. Nevertheless, average productivity and incomes remain at the same low level as they were 50 years ago. This paper suggests that the failure of previous development policies is due to a lack of social mobility in the country. Without social mobility, there is little incentive for people to invest in human and physical capital, and without investment there cannot be productivity growth. In addition, the lack of social mobility implies an inefficient use of human capital, and it hinders the construction of efficient social mechanisms for redistribution and consumption smoothing over the life-cycle.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Public Policy, Macroeconomics, and Social Mobility
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

2027. Trade, FDI, Growth and Poverty in Bolivia

Author:
Lykke E. Andersen, Osvaldo Nina, and Dirk Willem te Velde
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
After several decades of “state-capitalism” characterized by import substitution policies, Bolivia implemented in 1985 a New Economic Policy (NEP) following neo-liberal ideas of free trade, privatization, and liberalization of capital flows. It was hoped that the opening up of the economy would attract foreign direct investment (FDI) which in turn would help modernize Bolivian industry, improve productivity, increase exports, stimulate growth, and reduce poverty. This paper investigates to what extent this actually happened.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Foreign Direct Investment, Inequality, and Trade
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

2028. Regional Integration and Poverty: A Case-Study of Bolivia

Author:
Osvaldo Nina and Lykke E. Andersen
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the impacts of regional integration processes on poverty in Bolivia. It first demonstrates that regional integration has stimulated a diversion of trade away from traditional US and EU markets towards countries of MERCOSUR and the Andean Community. At the same time, the composition of exports has changed from predominantly minerals towards slightly more elaborated goods, such as vegetable fats, food and beverages. The paper presents econometric analyses of the impact of imports, exports and FDI (by sector, and trade block) on individual labor incomes and household poverty status. The results show that higher exports generally tend to benefit the workers who work in the exporting sectors. However, this result only holds for export sectors that exploit some natural resource rents (mining, hydrocarbons, modern agriculture), and not for those which rely purely on low wages in order to be competitive (most manufacturing sectors). Imports typically have a negative effect on worker salaries, except the imports of capital goods, which do not compete with local production. This implies that the change towards more regional trade of goods with a smaller natural resource rent component is unlikely to contribute to a reduction in poverty. For exports and FDI to be helpful for reducing poverty, they would have to focus on sectors, which are labor intensive and at the same time exploit some natural resource rents. Sectors that might fulfill these criteria are modern agriculture and tourism.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Economy, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

2029. From Peace Making to Self Sustaining Peace - International Presence in South East Europe at a Crossroads -- 8th Workshop of the Study Group Regional Stability in South East Europe

Author:
Frederic Labarre and Predrag Jureković
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
The fall of Communism in Europe, and the end of the bi-polar order put an end to the artificial and forced separation which had been keeping Hungary out of the mainstream of European development for the last 40-plus years. Once that obstacle was removed, a consensus was reached by all Hungarian political parties to become a modern European country in the quickest possible way and with the least sacrifice and develop an economy and culture, social and political structure bases on solid grounds by becoming part of the European and Euro-Atlantic co-operative institutions.
Topic:
NATO, Democratization, Development, International Cooperation, and International Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Hungary

2030. The challenge of United Nations reform

Author:
Christian Reus-Sumit, Marianne Hanson, Hilary Charlesworth, and William Maley
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
The first half of the twentieth century saw multiple crises in the expanding international system, characterised most tragically and dramatically by two world wars, the Great Depression, and the Holocaust. In response, the international community engaged in history's most ambitious program of international institution building, a program that centred on the creation of the United Nations, the Bretton Woods institutions, and a plethora of functional regimes governing everything from arms control to the prohibition of genocide. Despite the impediments imposed by four decades of Cold War, these institutions have evolved into a complex global architecture of institutions which can claim partial yet significant credit for the decline in traditional interstate warfare, the containment of nuclear proliferation to a handful of states, management of the world economy, and the prosecution of an ever more comprehensive humanitarian agenda.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, and United Nations

2031. Whose Oceania? Contending Visions of Community in Pacific Region-building

Author:
Greg Fry
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
In the past year the 'war against terror' and perceptions of state failure within the post-colonial Pacific have sparked an Australian-led initiative to deepen and widen regional integration in Oceania. This paper argues that behind the seeming unanimity of the 2004 Auckland Declaration and agreement by Pacific Islands Forum leaders on a 'Pacific vision' and a 'Pacific plan' are several contending visions of regional community, and of community-building. The political and moral legitimacy of each vision depends significantly on how these visions answer the question of who is Oceania for, and who has the right to speak for it? The seemingly dominant vision (that of the Australian government) is problematic in this regard. Past practice of Pacific region-building suggests that it may therefore not receive the legitimacy it requires for sustainability. This therefore is in danger of producing an unintended consequence: the replication at a regional level of the legitimacy problem associated with the so-called failing state.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

2032. Rentier Shifts, Legitimacy, and the Social Sources of International Financial Hegemonie

Author:
Leonard Seabrooke
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
This paper provides an analysis of the domestic legitimation of 'financial reform nexuses' during two periods of English and US international financial hegemony. Following Max Weber's work on the state and finance, I argue that positive state intervention is required to legitimise a 'financial reform nexus' (the interrelation of credit, property, and tax politics) for people on below median income. I hypothesise that sufficient legitimation of a financial reform nexus provides the means to generate and sustain international financial hegemony, including the capacity to tailor the structure of the international financial order to suit the hegemon's interests. Conversely, if the hegemon is unable to sustain the legitimation of its domestic financial reform nexus-a choice that correlates with negative state intervention that supports a 'rentier shift'-its capacity to maintain international financial hegemony wanes. I draw from examples of the legitimation of financial reform nexuses in England (1900-15) and the US (1985-2000), linking domestic legitimation to consequent changes in the structure of the international financial order. Through this analysis of the social sources of English and US international financial hegemonies, I differentiate the English 'international rentier economy' from the US 'international creditor economy'. Finally, I stress the importance of positive state intervention for the legitimation of the US financial reform nexus.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
England

2033. International Relations' First Great Debate: Context and Tradition

Author:
Darshan Vigneswaran and Joel Quirk
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
According to International Relations (IR) orthodoxy, the story of three Great Debates accounts for the most important theoretical developments in the discipline. Over the last decade, critical historiographers have established that the story of a First Debate, which tells of a struggle between idealism and realism between the 1920s and 1940s, is a misleading caricature of early academic international thought. This article adds to this critical literature by tracing the manner in which the story of a First Debate became a part of disciplinary orthodoxy between the 1950s and 1980s. Our analysis reveals that a myth of a First Debate was produced when more recent scholars detached the concept of a struggle between idealism and realism from both the unique historical milieu in which this dichotomy was conceived, and the rhetorical purposes for which it was employed. We use these findings to make the case for a contextual approach to disciplinary historiography, and to illuminate the historical contingency of contemporary notions of scholarly purpose in IR.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Education

2034. Protect or Neglect? Toward a More Effective United Nations Approach to the Protection of Internally Displaced Persons

Author:
Simon Bagshaw and Diane Paul
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In theory it seems quite straightforward. All United Nations humanitarian and development agencies have a role to play in ensuring respect for the human rights of persons who have become, or are at risk of becoming, displaced within the borders of their own country as a result of armed conflict and human rights violations.
Topic:
Development, Human Welfare, Third World, and United Nations

2035. The Euro-Med Partnership and Sub Regionalism: A Case of Region Building?

Author:
Stephen C. Calleya
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Stephen Calleya focuses on sub-regionalism as a tool of region building within the EMP. This paper's main concern is the question of whether, in view of the present EMP difficulties, subdividing the southern Mediterranean into various sub-regions (such as the Maghreb and the Mashreq) may be an efficient tool of region building. By taking account of regional relations among southern Mediterranean states and sub-regional initiatives, Calleya discusses several options and conditions under which sub-regionalism within the EMP could contribute to Euro- Mediterranean region building. Calleya argues that if the EU is serious about having a significant positive impact on regional integration in the Mediterranean in the short term, it is necessary to develop an adequate strategy for supporting more directly all regional sub-groupings in the southern Mediterranean.
Topic:
International Relations and Development
Political Geography:
Europe and Maghreb

2036. Industrialization and Urbanization: Did the Steam Engine Contribute to the Growth of Cities in the United States?

Author:
Sukkoo Kim
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Industrialization and urbanization are seen as twin processes of economic development. However, the exact nature of their causal relationship is still open to considerable debate. This paper uses firm-level data from the manuscripts of the decennial censuses between 1850 and 1880 to examine whether the adoption of the steam engine as the primary power source by manufacturers during industrialization contributed to urbanization. While the data indicate that steam-powered firms were more likely to locate in urban areas than water-powered firms, the adoption of the steam engine did not contribute substantially to urbanization.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2037. Azerbaijan: Turning Over a New Leaf?

Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Oil-rich Azerbaijan, which borders Iran, Turkey and Russia and is still scarred from its defeat by Armenia ten years ago, gives cause for both hope and concern. The October 2003 election of Ilham Aliyev to the presidency that his late-father, Heydar, had held almost from independence, highlighted the stark choices which now face the country. Its government is a carefully designed autocratic system, which the father and former Soviet-era politburo member began to construct in the late 1960 s, with heavy reliance on family and clan members, oil revenues and patronage.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

2038. Parental Wealth Effects on Living Standards and Asset Holdings: Results from Chile

Author:
Florencia Torche and Seymour Spillerman
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
This paper examines aspects of the replication of inequality across generations and attempts to assess the extent to which parental resources influence the life chances and living standards of adult children. We expect household wealth to be a critical matter, especially in a society in which there is a weak public safety net or in which the credit market is inefficient. In the former case, families need to self-insure--accumulate savings to smooth consumption expenditures over periods of income fluctuation, such as might result from illness or job loss. In the latter case, financial wealth is necessary in order to finance large expenditure items (e.g., a home, a new business) or to provide collateral in seeking a bank loan for such an expenditure.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
South America

2039. Fresh Starts: School Form and Student Outcomes

Author:
Peter Bearman and Christopher Weiss
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
Seemingly endless tinkering and adjustment of the structure of education in the United States over the past century has led to the adoption of different school forms at different times. Currently the middle school is the dominant form of schooling for the middle years of education; however, the middle school is a relatively new form that replaced the junior high school, which itself replaced previous schooling forms. Despite the rhetoric of policymakers and practitioners, little research has considered what school forms work for what kinds of adolescents across what dimensions. In this article, we show that for both academic and non-academic outcomes, how school systems structure the transition from 8th to 9th grade makes almost no difference. Where differences appear, they are small and point to the benefits of school transitions for providing fresh starts to adolescents in socially difficult situations. The policy implications are correspondingly clear: the optimal school structure for any school district is the one that maximizes building space, reduces crowding, and achieves administrative rationality.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Education
Political Geography:
United States

2040. Measuring Economic Disadvantage During Childhood: A Group-Based Modeling Approach

Author:
Mary Clare Lennon, Robert L. Wagmiller, Philip M. Alberti, and J. Lawrence Aber
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
Recent research suggest that child well-being and subsequent status attainment are influenced not only by the overall magnitude of exposure to family economic disadvantage during childhood, but also by the age of exposure and significant changes in family economic circumstances. Unfortunately, traditional measures of children's economic deprivation – such as, permanent and transitory income, persistent or cumulative poverty, and the number and length of poverty spells – fail to differentiate between exposure to disadvantage at different stages in childhood and largely ignore how family economic circumstances are changing over time. In this paper we propose a new method for assessing economic disadvantage during childhood that captures both children's overall levels of exposure to economic disadvantage and their patterns of exposure. This new method, which takes advantage of recent advances in finite mixture modeling, uses a longitudinal latent class model to classify children into a limited number of groups with similar histories of exposure to family economic disadvantage. Using this new methodology, group membership can be related to both family background characteristics and achievement in childhood and early adulthood, making it possible both to assess how family characteristics affect patterns of exposure to disadvantage during childhood and directly test alternative theories about the effect of different patterns of exposure on achievement. In this paper the relationship between background factors – such as race, parental education, and family structure – and group membership is investigated, as is the association between group membership and achievement in early adulthood. The use of this technique is demonstrated using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Development, and Economics

2041. Reducing Bias in Treatment Effect Estimation in Observational Studies Suffering from Missing Data

Author:
Jennifer Hill
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
Matching based on estimated propensity scores (that is, the estimated conditional probability of being treated) has become an increasingly popular technique for causal inference over the past decade. By balancing observed covariates, propensity score methods reduce the risk of confounding causal processes. Estimation of propensity scores in the complete data case is generally straightforward since it uses standard methods (e.g. logistic regression or discriminant analysis) and relies on diagnostics that are relatively easy to calculate and interpret. Most studies, however, have missing data. This paper illustrates a principled approach to handling missing data when estimating propensity scores makes use of multiple imputation (MI). Placing the problem within the framework of the Rubin Causal Model makes the assumptions explicit by illustrating the interaction between the treatment assignment mechanism and the missing data mechanism. Several approaches for estimating propensity scores with incomplete data using MI are presented. Results demonstrating improved efficacy compared with existing methodology are discussed. These advantages include greater bias reduction and increased facility in model choice.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, and Education

2042. (Re)Writing the "National Security State"

Author:
David Grondin
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Raoul Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Université du Québec à Montréal
Abstract:
Hans Morgenthau once said that “the intellectual lives in a world that is both separate from and potentially intertwined with that of the politician. The two worlds are separate because they are oriented towards different ultimate values… truth threatens power, and power threatens truth” (Morgenthau, quoted in Hill and Beshoff, 1994: xi). For Christopher Hill and Pamela Beshoff, this means that, as international relations practitioners and theorists, “Like it or not, we are 'intellectuals in politics' and 'the study of international relations is not an innocent profession'”
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Diplomacy, and National Security

2043. Abusing History: A Critical Analysis of Mainstream International Relations Theory Misconduct

Author:
Anne Marie D'Aoust
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Raoul Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Université du Québec à Montréal
Abstract:
In Political Science, the discipline of IR has been widely regarded as an “American Science” ever since Stanley Hoffman published his renowned essay in 1977. This “American Science” is mainly dominated by a single theoretical approach – that of Neorealism – which relies primarily on the concept of historical recurrence to ground its arguments. Other “new” theoretical approaches which challenge this parochialism, namely feminism, constructivism and Critical Theory, remain outside the “official boundaries” of the field. These boundaries are largely set by the Neorealist agenda and its variations, which rarely diverge from an unquestioned central rationalist-empiricist theme. Thus, with respect to its methodological and epistemological stance, Neorealist theory implicitly views History as a vast field of objective data and primary sources ready to reveal their truth to the social scientist. To test and/or prove the validity of Neorealist theory in the field of International Relations, one must refer to historical data and confront theory with “straight facts”. What I propose to do here is to analyze the ways in which the Neorealist approach to International Relations makes use of history, and subsequently to consider some crucial epistomological and theoretical debates in the field of History that are ignored by Neorealists like Waltz.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
America

2044. Foreign Policy-Making in the Clinton Administration: Reassessing Bosnia and the "Turning Point" of 1995

Author:
Séastien Barthe and Charles-Philippe David
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Raoul Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Université du Québec à Montréal
Abstract:
The conflict that ravaged Bosnia-Herzegovina from 1992 to 1995 was one of the central international problems that the Clinton White House had to face during its first term. The “issue from hell”, as Warren Christopher famously dubbed it in 19933, was emblematic of the Clinton administration's failure, during the period of January 1993 to late summer 1995, to formulate foreign policies that could produce the results desired by the policy-makers in the West Wing.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Development
Political Geography:
United States, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

2045. "Foreign Policy Is Not What I Came Here to Do" Dissecting Clinton's Foreign Policy-Making: A First Cut

Author:
Séastien Barthe and Charles-Philippe David
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Raoul Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Université du Québec à Montréal
Abstract:
Some presidents fit a pattern. But though Clinton does bear comparison with some of his predecessors, he combines elements of several types and defies (for now) definitive categorization.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Development
Political Geography:
United States and Eastern Europe

2046. International Diversification at Home and Abroad

Author:
Fang Cai and Francis E. Warnock
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We analyze foreigners' and domestic institutional investors' positions in U.S. equities. Controlling for many factors, we uncover a common preference for large firms and firms that are diversified internationally. The domestic preference for internationally diversified firms implies that investors might obtain substantial international diversification by investing at home. Using an international factor model, we show that exposure to foreign equity markets is indeed greater for domestic firms that are more diversified internationally, suggesting that at least some of the home-grown foreign exposure translates into international diversification benefits. After accounting for home-grown foreign exposure, the share of 'foreign' equities in investors' portfolios nearly doubles, reducing (but not eliminating) the observed home bias.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

2047. Foreign Participation in Local-Currency Bond Markets

Author:
Francis E. Warnock and John D. Burger
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We analyze the development of, and foreign participation in, 49 local bond markets. Countries with stable inflation rates and strong creditor rights have more developed local bond markets and rely less on foreign-currency-denominated bonds. Less developed bond markets have returns characterized by high variance and negative skewness, factors eschewed by U.S. investors. Results based on a three-moment CAPM indicate, however, that it is diversifiable idiosyncratic risk that U.S. investors appear to shun. Taken as a whole our results hint at a virtuous cycle of bond market development: Creditor friendly policies and laws can spark local bond market development that enables the development of derivatives markets and, in turn, attracts foreign participation.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

2048. Making Doha a Developmental Round: What do the Developing Countries Want?

Author:
William Krist
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
This report was prepared by William Krist, a Senior Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Project (ECSP). Mr. Krist is working on issues relating to trade and sustainable development. Before becoming a Woodrow Wilson scholar, Mr. Krist was senior vice president at the American Electronics Association, and prior to that, he had been Assistant Trade Representative for Industry in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. He has an MA in economics from George Washington University, and a BA from Swarthmore College.The Environmental Change and Security Project (ECSP) has been committed to exploration of the connections between environment, population and security since 1994. Through its meetings, its publications, its comprehensive Web site, and the original research carried out by its staff and scholars, ECSP serves as an information clearinghouse. ECSP is directed by Geoffrey D. Dabelko and is housed in the Wilson Center's Division of International Studies, headed by Robert S. Litwak.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
Political Geography:
United States

2049. Peace-building and Development in Guatemala and Northern Ireland

Author:
Charles A. Reilly
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
Guatemala and Northern Ireland signed historic peace accords in 1996 and 1998 respectively. This paper, part of a longer term project comparing lessons learned from implementation in the two cases, focuses especially on Guatemala, making some middle range peace/development policy recommendations for that country's recently elected government and civil society organizations. Despite very different economic development levels, both countries are divided, find peace implementation difficult, and are heavily influenced by outside actors - including their own diaspora. Guatemala is deeply divided internally along class, race and ethnic lines, with more than 15% of its population in the U.S. (and close affinity with Mayan peoples who live across the Mexican border). Ireland too is divided along religious and ethnic lines, a border crosses the island. The North is linked politically to the United Kingdom, with social ties to emigrant populations there, in the south and in the United States. Guatemala, like its Central American neighbor El Salvador, embarked on peace-building with UN oversight, while the Northern Irish had United Kingdom and Irish Republic support for making peace. (Without pre-judging an eventual political resolution of the two Irelands, I'll refer to both Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, since that peace process, like Guatemala's, necessarily transcends borders). When compared to Northern Ireland, Guatemalan religious differences are minor, and religious leaders, Catholic, Protestant and Mayan played key roles in the peace process. Emigration figures large in both settings, as do many centuries of colonial or imperial domination. Both countries have struggled with post-accord violence which has reached alarming levels in Guatemala. Peace and development are inseparable - hence I emphasize growth with equity issues that are cause and consequence of both conflicts.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Central America, Mexico, and North Ireland

2050. The Inferior Performance of State Owned Enterprises: Is it due to Ownership or Market Structure?

Author:
Leo A. Grünfeld, Eskil Goldeng, and Gabriel R. G. Benito
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
We analyze differences in performance between private companies (PCs) and state owned enterprises (SOEs), with an emphasis on the effects of market structure. We use a panel covering all registered companies during the 1990s in Norway, a country where SOEs play an important role in regular markets. Return on assets as well as costs measures are used as measures of performance in models that investigate markets where SOEs and PCs actually compete with each other. Although market shares and concentration affect performance, ownership identity still explains most of the inferior performance among SOEs.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Norway

2051. Development Policy: An Introduction for Students

Author:
Tony Addison
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper discusses development policy objectives, noting how these have changed over the years, with a more explicit focus on poverty reduction coming recently to the fore. It also examines the relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction. The paper then discusses how to achieve economic growth, starting with the caveat that growth must be environmentally sustainable, and moves on to the big question of the respective roles for the market mechanism and the state in allocating society's productive resources. The paper next discusses how economic reform has been implemented, and the political difficulties that arise. It concludes that getting development policy right has the potential to lift millions out of poverty.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

2052. Social Groups and Economic Poverty: A Problem in Measurement

Author:
S. Subramanian
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper points to some elementary conflicts between the claims of interpersonal and intergroup justice as they manifest themselves in the process of seeking a real-valued index of poverty which is required to satisfy certain seemingly desirable properties. It indicates how 'group—sensitive' poverty measures, similar to the Anand-Sen (1995) 'Gender Adjusted Human Development Index' and the Subramanian-Majumdar (2002) 'Group-Disparity Adjusted Deprivation Index', may be constructed. Some properties of a specific 'group-sensitive' poverty index are appraised, and the advantage of having a 'flexible' measure which is capable of effecting a tradeoff between the claims of interpersonal and inter-group equality is spelt out. The implications of directly incorporating group disparities into the measurement of poverty for poverty comparisons and anti-poverty policy are also discussed.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Human Welfare, Poverty, and International Affairs

2053. Do Structural Reforms always Succeed? Lessons from Brazil

Author:
Jorge Saba Arbache
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In the last twenty years, Brazil has undergone several attempts of improving sustainable growth through stabilization programmes, and more recently, structural reforms in line with the Washington Consensus Agenda. The results, however, have been disappointing, as the per capita output growth has remained below its historic trend, and poverty and inequality remain at high levels. This paper investigates why marketoriented reforms such as trade and capital account liberalization, privatization, deregulation and stabilization failed to boost growth in Brazil. We conclude that structural reforms may contribute to growth if accompanied by microeconomic policies tailor-made to address the country's needs, and by appropriate macroeconomic, institutional and political environments.
Topic:
Development, Human Welfare, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Washington, Brazil, and Latin America

2054. Participatory Approaches and the Measurement of Human Well-being

Author:
Sarah White and Jethro Pettit
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper considers the use of participatory methods in international development research, and asks what contribution these can make to the definition and measurement of well-being. It draws on general lessons arising from the project level, two larger-scale policy research processes sponsored by the World Bank, and the experience of quality of life studies. It also considers emerging experiments with using participatory methods to generate quantitative data. The paper closes by assessing the future trajectory of participatory approaches in well-being research, and reflects on some dilemmas regarding the use of participatory data on well-being in the policymaking process.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Human Welfare, and International Cooperation

2055. Divergent Means and Convergent Inequality of Incomes among the Provinces and Cities of Urban China

Author:
John Knight, Li Shi, and Zhao Renwei
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Two precisely comparable national household surveys relating to 1988 and 1995 are used to analyse changes in the inequality of income in urban China. Over those seven years province mean income per capita grew rapidly but diverged across provinces, whereas intra-province income inequality grew rapidly but converged across provinces. The reasons for these trends are explored by means of various forms of decomposition analysis. Comparisons are also made between the coastal provinces and the inland provinces. The decompositions show the central role of wages, and within wages profitrelated bonuses, together with the immobility of labour across provinces, in explaining mean income divergence. The timing of economic reforms helps to explain the convergence of intra-province income inequality. Policy conclusions are drawn.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2056. Income Inequality in Rural China: Regression-based Decomposition Using Household Data

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Zhangyue Zhou
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A considerable literature exists on the measurement of income inequality in China and its increasing trend. Much less is known, however, about the driving forces of this trend and their quantitative contributions. Conventional decompositions, by factor components or by population subgroups, only provide limited information on the determinants of income inequality. This paper represents an early attempt to apply the regression-based decomposition framework to the study of inequality accounting in rural China, using household level data. It is found that geography has been the dominant factor but is becoming less important in explaining total inequality. Capital input emerges as a most significant determinant of income inequality. Farming structure is more important than labour and other inputs in contributing to income inequality across households.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2057. Fifty Years of Regional Inequality in China: A Journey through Central Planning, Reform, and Openness

Author:
Ravi Kanbur and Xiaobo Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper constructs and analyses a long-run time-series for regional inequality in China from the Communist Revolution to the present. There have been three peaks of inequality in the last fifty years, coinciding with the Great Famine of the late 1950s, the Cultural Revolution of the late 1960s and 1970s, and finally the period of openness and global integration in the late 1990s. Econometric analysis establishes that regional inequality is explained in the different phases by three key policy variables; the ratio of heavy industry to gross output value, the degree of decentralization, and the degree of openness.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2058. Industrial Location and Spatial Inequality: Theory and Evidence from India

Author:
Somik V. Lall and Sanjoy Chakravorty
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We argue that spatial inequality of industry location is a primary cause of spatial income inequality in developing nations. We focus on understanding the process of spatial industrial variation—identifying the spatial factors that have cost implications for firms, and the factors that influence the location decisions of new industrial units. The analysis has two parts. First we examine the contribution of economic geography factors to the cost structure of firms in eight industry sectors and show that local industrial diversity is the one factor with significant and substantial cost reducing effects. We then show that new private sector industrial investments in India are biased toward existing industrial and coastal districts, whereas state industrial investments (in deep decline after structural reforms) are far less biased toward such districts. We conclude that structural reforms lead to increased spatial inequality in industrialization, and therefore, income.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

2059. Microsimulation, CGE and Macro Modelling for Transition and Developing Economies

Author:
James B. Davies
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Alternative approaches to modelling distributional and welfare effects of changes in policy and the economic environment in developing and transition countries are surveyed. Microsimulations range from pure accounting approaches to models with behavioural equations based on econometric estimates and various dynamic models. Microsimulation accounting models are key to analysing the impact effects of tax and benefit changes and are becoming widespread. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling endogenizes price changes and changes in industry and labour market structure. An essential CGE input is a social accounting matrix (SAM), which can be used to do simple multiplier analyses. A wide range of macroeconomic models have also been used in developing countries, endogenizing variables like interest rates and exchange rates.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Human Welfare

2060. Changes in Spatial Income Inequality in the Philippines: An Exploratory Analysis

Author:
Arsenio M. Balisacan and Nobuhiko Fuwa
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to establish some basic facts about income inequality in the Philippines, with a special focus on the importance of spatial income inequality. Despite major fluctuations in macroeconomic performances, income inequality remained relatively stable during the years 1985-2000. Spatial inequality accounts for a sizable but not overwhelming portion of the national-level income inequality, and the relative importance of spatial inequality was declining over time. We also find that mean income levels across provinces were converging at a much faster rate than those observed in currently developed countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Philippines and Southeast Asia

2061. Subjective Measures of Well-being

Author:
Ruut Veenhoven
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper deals with three questions: (1) What are 'subjective' measures? (2) What is 'well-being'? and (3) Are subjective measures of well-being of use for policymaking, in particular in developing nations?
Topic:
Development, Human Welfare, and Poverty

2062. Human Well-being: Concepts and Conceptualizations

Author:
Des Gasper
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Economic measures of income have ignored large areas of human well-being and are poor measures of well-being in the areas to which they attend. Despite increased recognition of those distortions, 'GNP per capita continues to be regarded as the quintessential indicator of a country's living standard' (Partha Dasgupta). Well-being seems to have intuitive plausibility as a concept, but in practice we encounter a bewilderingly diverse family of concepts and approaches, partly reflecting different contexts, purposes, and foci of attention. Is there a unifying framework that yet respects the complexity and diversity of well-being? This paper presents an imperfect comparative and integrative framework that builds on the contributions by Sen and others. We move toward the framework gradually, since well-being concepts are in fact complex entitities which reflect pictures of personhood and of science. Insight grows through surveying a wide range of relevant experience and views, before risking blinkering one's vision in a framework. The paper then uses the framework to examine conceptualizations of human well-being, by Dasgupta, Sen, Nussbaum, Doyal and Gough, and Alkire.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Human Welfare, and Poverty

2063. Gender-related Indicators of Well-being

Author:
Stephan Klasen
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper discusses the rationale as well as the challenges involved when constructing gender-related indicators of well-being. It argues that such indicators are critically important but that their construction involves a number of conceptual and measurement problems. Among the conceptual issues considered are the space in which gender inequality in well-being is to be measured, whether the indicators should track wellbeing of males and females separately or adjust overall measures of well-being by the gender inequality in well-being, whether gender equality in every indicator is necessarily the goal, how to assess gender inequality that is apparently desired by males and females, and what role indicators of agency or empowerment should play in genderrelated indicators of well-being. Among the most important measurement issues addressed are; the role of the household in allocating resources, the question of stocks versus flows, as well as significant data gaps when it comes to gender inequalities. Where appropriate, remedies to the conceptual and measurement issues are proposed. The paper also briefly reviews UNDP's gender-related indices to illustrate some of the challenges involved.
Topic:
Development, Gender Issues, Human Welfare, and Poverty

2064. Diffusion of Digital Mobile Telephony: Are Developing Countries Different?

Author:
Petri Rouvinen
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Factors determining the diffusion of digital mobile telephony across 200 developed and developing countries in the 1990s are studied with the aid of a Gompertz model. The market size and network effects are found to play more important roles in the developing countries; there is also more need for complementing innovations in, for example, financial and payment systems. Even though the developing countries have disadvantages, being late entrants in digital mobile telephony is to their advantage and promotes cross-country convergence. Overall digital technologies are best seen as equalizers, and thus the divide is rather socio-economic or analog than digital.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Globalization, and Science and Technology

2065. Conceptual and Measurement Issues in Poverty Analysis

Author:
Erik Thorbecke
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to review a number of issues related to poverty, while taking stock of the ongoing research. Most of the remaining unresolved issues in poverty analysis are related directly or indirectly to the dynamics of poverty. Before the development community can become more successful in designing and implementing poverty-alleviation strategies, within the context of growth, we need to understand better the conditions under which some households remain permanently (chronically) poor and how others move in and out of poverty. In what follows we review the state of the art under a number of interrelated headings: (1) Chronic vs. transient poverty; (2) Poverty and vulnerability; (3) The determination of the poverty line across time and countries; (4) The quantitative vs. qualitative approach to poverty measurement; and (5) Growth, inequality and poverty.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Human Welfare, and Poverty

2066. An Inquiry into Cities and Their Role in Subnational Economic Growth in South Africa

Author:
W.F. Krugell and W.A. Naudé
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
South Africa is characterized by significant inequality in spatial economic activity. Whether future growth and development on a subnational level in South Africa will be such as to reduce this inequality may depend on the economic growth and development of South Africa's largest cities. Our local economic growth empirics show some indications of conditional convergence in output between poorer towns as well as overall between all cities and towns. Between 1990 and 2000 some limited sigma convergence was found but this was driven by declines in the standard deviation of per capita income amongst the poorest quintile of towns. An estimate of conditional beta convergence of 1.2 percent over the period 1990-2000 confirms that overall convergence has been taking place. From an estimation of the determinants of economic growth on a local level, using a dataset on 353 local areas in South Africa between 1990-2000 we found the most significant determinants to be stocks of human capital and distance from harbours and markets. The effect of human capital on economic growth was strongly associated with the presence of large cities, as one would predict from endogenous growth theory.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2067. Urban-Rural Inequality in Living Standards in Africa

Author:
David E. Sahn and David C. Stifel
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper we examine the relative importance of rural versus urban areas in terms of monetary poverty and seven other related living standards indicators. We present the levels of urban-rural differences for several African countries for which we have data and find that living standards in rural areas lag far behind those in urban areas. Then we examine the relative and absolute rates of change for urban and rural areas and find no overall evidence of declining differences in the gaps between urban and rural living standards. Finally, we conduct urban-rural decompositions of inequality, examining the within versus between (urban and rural) group inequality for asset inequality, education inequality, and health (height) inequality.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Africa

2068. A Development-focused Allocation of the Special Drawing Rights

Author:
Ernest Aryeetey
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Efforts to realize the issue of development-focused Special Drawing Rights (SDR) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been on-going for many years. Recently, however, the campaign first gained a new momentum immediately after the Asian financial crises with the new liquidity problems of developing nations following the collapse of private capital markets. Currently the search for financing options towards the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals drives the interest in development-focused SDRs. Extending the uses to which SDR can be put is derived from the growing demands on the international financial system to respond to the development finance needs of poor nations. Apart from the need to provide emergency funds in times of crises and the whole area of crisis prevention, increasingly the facilitation of development in poor countries and assistance to make the best policy decisions is considered crucial.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

2069. The Rise or Fall of World Inequality: A Spurious Controversy?

Author:
Bart Capéau and André Decoster
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In the age of globalization, the question whether inequality in the world rose or fell down, is a hot topic. Leading scholars in the field of economic inequality measurement developed methods to estimate empirically the distribution of welfare (income) amongst world citizens. Despite their similar methodologies, they do not seem to agree about the conclusion. In the present paper we pinpoint what drives the two extreme positions apart. Sala-i-Martin (2002a, b), who claims that there can be no doubt that world inequality went down between the late 1970s and the late 1990s, has in fact calculated population weighted inequality between countries. Milanovic (2002a, b, c) does not deny this, but illustrates the empirical importance of divergent tendencies at the sub-national level (especially urban versus rural regions) for assessing true world inequality and comes to the reverse conclusion. Nevertheless, there seems to be unanimity, especially amongst the contributions quoted here, about the inequality measure(s) to be used for assessing world income distributions. We show that at least for international inequality, there is empirical evidence for rank reversals among the class of generalized entropy measures and expect the same to be true of world inequality. However, the normative debate about which inequality measure to use for assessing true world inequality has not yet begun.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, and Third World

2070. Spatial Decomposition of Inequality

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Anthony Shorrocks
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper reviews the theory and application of decomposition techniques in the context of spatial inequality. It establishes some new theoretical results with potentially wide applicability, and examines empirical evidence drawn from a large number of countries.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, and Poverty

2071. Minimal Investments, Minimal Results: The Failure of Security Policy in Afghanistan

Author:
Michael Bhatia, Kevin Lanigan, and Philip Wilkinson
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
Prime Minister Tony Blair's 2003 declaration that the international community “will not walk away from” Afghanistan missed the real question: When will the international community really walk into Afghanistan, and make the necessary commitments and investments that will give the Afghan people a reasonable chance at building a peaceful and stable country?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Asia

2072. The Black Media Entrepreneur and Economic Implications for the 21st Century

Author:
Emmanuel K. Ngwainmbi
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
This paper appraises communications as business and examines the impact of new information technology on the productivity of the black entrepreneur (African American (AAs) and African (ABs) mid-scale businesspersons) and provides insights into market conditions in both communities to the mindset of the African entrepreneur and implications for partnership management. Further, it describes the black entrepreneur's access to business information, implications for partnership and a background for strategic planning. Research shows there are potential mutual benefits for African and African American media entrepreneurs, with proper strategic planning and information sharing.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Africa

2073. Glocalization, Local Urban Culture and Change in West Africa: Toward Negotiating Socioeconomic Understanding with Foreign Companies and International Organizaations

Author:
Emmanuel K. Ngwainmbi
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
The paper revisits the key problematics of conceptualizing culture, the ethnographic relevance of cross cultural communication in business management, and the theoretical and pragmatic differences between glocalization, Euro-American and West African business management ethics and socioeconomic change in NEPAD (The New Partnership for African Development) countries. Further, it examines the power dynamics of the local sub-cultures (manager, employee and local consumer) and the fundamental cultural differences between local and foreign managers and provides the contexts within which such core differences cultivate a hybrid business environment and enhance translocal negotiations. Finally, it discusses the triangular connection between hegemony, ICT and social change and identifies situations in urban W. African communities where local-foreign knowledge and technical resources promote globalization in the region.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and America

2074. The Role of Health in the Fight against International Poverty

Author:
Lael Brainard
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The end of the Cold War and disillusionment with aid's many failures led to widespread aid fatigue among donors during the 1990s. Total official development assistance (ODA) as a share of donor GDP fell by one third over the decade (from 0.32 to 0.22 percent). This was particularly pronounced in the United States, where a slash-and-burn approach reduced foreign economic assistance to just over one half of 1 percent of budget outlays, compared with over 3 percent at the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis. And U.S. per capita spending fell to last place among donor nations, ending the decade at $29, far below the average of $70.
Topic:
Development, Human Welfare, International Organization, and Poverty
Political Geography:
United States and Cuba

2075. Andes 2020: A New Strategy for the Challenges of Colombia and the Region

Author:
Daniel W. Christman, John G. Heimann, and Julia E. Sweig
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The democracies of the Andean region—Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia—are at risk. The problems that characterize other developing regions—including political instability, economic stagnancy, widening inequality, and social divisions along class, color, ethnic, ideological, and urban-rural fault lines—are all present in the Andes. Most important is the region's physical insecurity, due in some countries to ongoing or resurgent violent conflict, and in every country to the lack of state control over significant territory and to porous borders that enable the easy movement of drugs, arms, and conflict. Equally sobering, expectations for strong democracy and economic prosperity in the Andes remain unrealized. Recognizing its interests in the Andes, the United States over the past two decades has spent billions of dollars and significant manpower to stem the flow of illegal drugs from the region northward; to assist local security forces in the fight against drugs, terror, and insurgency; and to promote free markets, human rights, and democratic consolidation. Yet the region remains on the brink of collapse, an outcome that would pose a serious threat to the U.S. goal of achieving democracy, prosperity, and security in the hemisphere.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, Latin America, Venezuela, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia

2076. Are the Balance of Payments Deficits in the Baltic Countries Sustainable?

Author:
Jorgen Drud Hansen and Morten Hansen
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
For almost a decade all three Baltic countries have witnessed substantial deficits on the current accounts of the balance of payments. This paper discusses whether this situation should be a matter of concern. Recent literature on the sustainability of balance of payments deficits is reviewed and put into a Baltic context. The main conclusion is that the recurrent large deficits in the Baltic countries pose a risk for the fixed exchange-rate policies until the countries adopt the euro. In the longer term, large deficits will influence the time path of convergence of living standards between the Baltic countries and the EU as a whole.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

2077. Measuring the Economic Impact of an EU–GCC Free Trade Agreement

Author:
David Kernohan and Dean A. DeRosa
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Economic growth rates in the Gulf region have languished in recent years and need to be raised to accommodate the rapidly growing populations and social aspirations of the region. Using a simple model of world trade, this report investigates the economic impacts of the new customs union of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between the GCC and European Union. The quantitative results suggest that the new customs union and proposed EU-GCC free trade agreement both appreciably expand trade and improve economic welfare in the GCC countries, with little significant economic impact on the EU. As expected, the FTA results in larger GCC economic gains than the customs union because it affords GCC consumers greater opportunity to enjoy imports at internationally competitive prices. Although welfare gains under the proposed FTA closely approximate those under open regionalism (concerted trade liberalisation on a most favoured nation basis), reducing the 5% GCC common external tariff to about 3% as part of the FTA negotiations would not only ensure near-maximum trade performance and welfare gains but also add further to the attractiveness of the GCC countries as a location for foreign direct investment.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Treaties and Agreements, and Population
Political Geography:
Europe

2078. Why Is There a Productivity Problem in the EU?

Author:
Francesco Daveri
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Magazines and newspapers often refer to or even take for granted the economic decline of the EU, particularly when contrasting the EU data with US data. The first part of this paper poses the question of whether IT – as often alleged – is really the only cause for the EU's productivity slowdown. The conclusion is that it is not. The non-IT part of the economy has not only contributed to the slowdown but appears to have crucially contributed to the EU-US growth gap as well. There is thus little reason for the EU to target IT-diffusion as an intermediate goal, as implied by the Lisbon strategy. The second part of the paper, after showing that the growth slowdown comes from the reduction of non-IT capital deepening and the lack of acceleration in total factor productivity growth, argues that the slowdown of capital deepening will continue. The scarce resources available for enhancing growth should concentrate on providing incentives to R and innovation at large, rather than financing traditional infrastructures. This is at odds with the goals pursued by the EU within the framework of the European Growth Initiative.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

2079. Serbia's U-turn

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In politics and policies, Serbia increasingly resembles the Milosevic-era without Milosevic. Its reaction to the catastrophic mid-March 2004 near collapse of the UN mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), the strong showing by ultra-nationalists in the 28 December 2003 parliamentary elections and the subsequent two-months of squabbling before democratic parties could form a minority government that depends for survival on the support of Milosevic's old party all are signs that more trouble lies ahead. In 2004 Serbia can anticipate continued political instability, increasingly strained relations with the West and further economic decline. The spasm of ethnic cleansing of Serbs by Albanians in Kosovo has raised the prospect of Kosovo partition, strengthened the nationalist right wing and increased anti-Western sentiment. Instability and economic weakness could hasten moves by Montenegro towards independence, while Kosovo tensions could spill over into the Presevo valley, Sandzak and even Vojvodina.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania

2080. Collapse In Kosovo

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 17 March 2004, the unstable foundations of four and a half years of gradual progress in Kosovo buckled and gave way. Within hours the province was immersed in anti-Serb and anti-UN rioting and had regressed to levels of violence not seen since 1999. By 18 March the violence mutated into the ethnic cleansing of entire minority villages and neighbourhoods. The mobs of Albanian youths, extremists and criminals exposed the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) and the NATO-led peacekeeping force (KFOR) as very weak. Kosovo's provisional institutions of self-government (PISG), media and civil society afforded the rioters licence for mayhem. The international community urgently needs new policies -- on final status and socio-economic development alike -- or Kosovo instability may infect the entire region.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Kosovo, United Nations, and Albania

2081. Pan-Albanianism: How Big A Threat To Balkan Stability?

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Pan-Albanianism is seen by many observers as a serious threat to Balkan stability. A century of shifting borders has left ethnic Albanians scattered across Kosovo, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Greece. The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), the National Liberation Army (NLA) in Macedonia, and other groups have all waged campaigns of violence in support of enhanced rights for ethnic Albanians. Where is the ceiling to their ambitions?
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Greece, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, Albania, and Montenegro

2082. Syria Under Bashar (II): Domestic Policy Challenges

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Bashar al-Assad's presidency has failed to live up to the hopes for far-reaching domestic reform that greeted it in 2000. After a brief opening, Syria clamped down on dissent, and economic change remains painfully slow. Many who once viewed Bashar as a potential partner, open-minded, and Western-oriented, now perceive him as, if anything, more ideological than and just as tied to the Baathist regime as his father. Both assessments are overly simplistic and poor guides to dealing with a Syria that is at a crossroads. Syrian officials hint at significant steps in mid-2004, including possible changes in the Baath Party hierarchy and doctrine and moves toward a more open and inclusive political system. Scepticism is in order, as such pledges have repeatedly been made in the past only to be ignored. But with reform now a strategic imperative, Syria should turn hints into reality and the international community should find ways to encourage and to assist it.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Arabia and Syria

2083. Building a New Afghanistan: The Value of Success, the Cost of Failure

Author:
Barnett Rubin, Abby Stoddard, Humayun Hamidzada, and Adib Farhadi
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
On March 31, 2004, representatives of national governments and international organizations will meet in Berlin to renew their collective commitment to rebuild Afghanistan and ensure its future stability and development. The government of Afghanistan has thus far met all the deadlines and benchmarks required of it under the Bonn Agreement of December 5, 2001, and Afghanistan's international partners have made generous and at times risky contributions to that effort, including sacrificing the lives of some of their citizens.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Asia, and Berlin

2084. WTO, E-commerce, and Information Technologies: From the Uruguay Round through the Doha Development Agenda

Author:
Sacha Wunsch-Vincent
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Although much of the early Internet hype has faded, e-commerce continues to grow and spread around the world. In recent years, the potential and importance of e-commerce to the economies and industries of the developing world has become particularly evident. Yet as e-commerce develops into a global phenomenon, the need for rules and principles facilitating e-commerce has become increasingly evident, too.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Uruguay

2085. What Went Right in Japan

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Japan's recovery is strong. Real GDP growth will exceed 4 percent this year and likely be 3 percent or higher in 2005 and perhaps even 2006. The Japanese economy has been growing solidly for the last five quarters (average real 3.2 percent annualized rate), and the pace is sustainable, given Japan's underlying potential growth rate (which has risen to 2 to 2.5 percent per year) and the combination of catch-up growth closing the current output gap and some reforms that will raise the growth rate for quarters to come (though not permanently). Indicators of domestic demand beyond capital investment are increasingly positive, including housing starts bottoming out, inventories drawing down, and diminished deflation. Moreover, on the external side, while China was the main source of export growth in 2003, the composition of exports has become more balanced this year and is widening beyond that seen in other recoveries. Just as in the United States and other developed economies, a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth and a sustained further increase in energy prices represent the primary risks to the outlook.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2086. Selective Intervention and Growth: The Case of Korea

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper attempts to determine whether conditions amenable to successful selective interventions to capture cross-industry externalities are likely to be fulfilled in practice. Three criteria are proposed for good candidates for industrial promotion: that they have strong interindustry links to the rest of the economy, that they lead the rest of the economy in a causal sense, and that they be characterized by a high s hare of industry-specific innovations in output growth. According to these criteria, likely candidates for successful intervention are identified in the Korean data. It is found that, with one exception, none of the sectors promoted by the heavy and chemical industry (HCI) policy fulfills all three criteria.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and Korea

2087. Labour Markets and Employment Development in South East Europe

Author:
Hermine Vidovic
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
In contrast to the Central European transition countries, the economies of South East Europe (SEE) have been facing complex and interrelated political and economic problems. The dis solution of Yugoslavia combined with market losses, war in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia, sanctions finally culminating in the Kosovo conflict were the main causes of political and economic instability in the whole region. Taking into account these factors, output recovery has been much slower in SEE than in the Central European countries. Measured in purchasing power standards, Croatia is the best per former in the region, with its GDP at about 38% of the EU average. Next comes Bulgaria (32%), whereas the respective values f or Serbia and Montenegro and Albania range between 15-17%. Looking at the economic performance in the 1990-2002 period, Croatia and Romania reached almost 94% of their pre-transitional level in 2002, followed by Bulgaria and Macedonia (about 88% each). Serbia and Montenegro, the worst-affected, reached only about half of what it was in 1990. The cumulative output decline there was one of the largest among all the Central and East European countries.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Development, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Bulgaria, Albania, Croatia, and Montenegro

2088. The Next Wave of Globalization? Exploring the Relocation of Service Provision to India

Author:
Rafiq Dossani and Martin Kenney
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
The rapid increase in the ability and desire of multinational corporations to offshore services or, what are commonly termed “business processes” to developing nations is becoming a significant international development issue. This paper utilizes a case study of India, the largest recipient of offshored services, to explain the dynamics of offshoring from the perspective of the firm and the recipient nation. The explosion of offshoring is placed within a historical context. The technologies enabling offshoring and the corporate environment are discussed. Finally, the organizational forms involved in offshoring are discussed. The conclusion considers the implications of the offshoring of services for developed and developing nations and possible policy initiatives for developing nations interested in the possibility of entering the ITES sector.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

2089. Sustainable Development in Ijebu-Ode, Nigeria: The Role of Social Capital, Participation, and Science and Technology

Author:
Akin L. Mabogunje and Robert W. Kates
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Sustainable development as an aspiration is global; as an ongoing process, it is local. A growing number of scientists and technologists share in the aspiration and experiment with the local. Here we report one such effort in Ijebu-Ode, a small city of 200,000 inhabitants in south-west Nigeria, which, through a participatory city consultation process chose to reduce poverty through a set of local and sustainable livelihood activities. Now four years into the effort, we describe the setting, the participatory process, the poverty reduction activities, and the impressive results to date. We attribute the success to date to the large stock of social capital, the participatory process that drew upon this stock, and the scientific and technological community that both serve as boundary spanners to link Ijebu-Ode to the national and the global and as a resource for local technologies and advice.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Sustainability, Participation, and Social Capital
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

2090. Institutions and Development

Author:
Robert H. Bates, Avner Greif, Macartan Humphreys, and Smita Singh
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper addresses the political foundations for economic development in Africa and does so by exploring two basic themes: political accountability and political order. We say that political elites are accountable when, in order to retain office, they must employ power to serve the interests of those whom they rule. By political order we mean the extent to which people employ coercion to protect property rights rather than to trespass upon them. Where there is accountability, many hold, then those with power make policies that enhance the welfare of private citizens, as by rendering them more prosperous (e.g. World Bank 1991). And where there is political order, then there is security for property rights, rendering it in the interests of private agents to invest, to labor, and to generate higher levels of income (North and Thomas 1973). The paper provides data about the trajectory of political reform and political order in contemporary Africa and their significance for the behavior of governments. It demonstrates the limited impact of political reform upon public policy, documents the relationship between reform and conflict, and posits the existence of a political "trap" that limits Africa’s development.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Economic Growth, Accountability, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa

2091. Probing the Sources of Political Order

Author:
Robert H. Bates
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
As noted by Hobbes, political order makes possible the good things of life. It constitutes the political foundations for development. Motivated by the theory of the state and qualitative materials from Africa, this paper develops a model of the foundations of political order, which it then tests on data from 46 African countries over the period 1970-1995.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Conflict, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa

2092. Complex Emergencies and Human Development: A Quantitative Analysis of Their Relationship

Author:
Rosilyne M. Borland
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
Increasingly, the world’s poorest and most marginalized are also those most affected by armed conflict. The complicated interactions among modern conflicts, poverty, hunger, and disease have led to the emergence of the notion of the “complex emergency.” The widespread occurrence of complex emergencies in the world’s poorest countries, where development efforts are the most needed, has grave consequences for human development. Through an application of quantitative methods, this paper examines the relationship between complex emergencies and development using the human development index developed by the United Nations Development Programme and the typology of complex emergencies developed by the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research. The study demonstrates a relationship between levels of development and types of complex emergencies and suggests that an index which considers the multiple manifestations of complex emergencies would provide a better measurement than a single quantifier. These results point to the need to situate development efforts in the context of complex emergencies in order for them to meet the needs of the world’s most vulnerable populations.
Topic:
Development, United Nations, Armed Conflict, and Emergencies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2093. CERI: Public Administrations and Modes of Government in the Face of Europeanization: A Comparison between Southern Europe and Eastern Europe

Author:
Béatrice Hibou and François Bafoil
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Enlargement today is a priority on the European agenda. Examining Portugal and Greece from a comparative perspective with respect to Poland, this Study analyzes the original and specific paths each of these national configurations have taken as regards administrative and institutional changes, particularly through the regional dimension, policy reorientations and modes of government. Given the large body of acquis communautaire that must be integrated, the nature of Commission involvement and the highly regulatory nature of European directives, this dimension emerges as the most significant in the process of Europeanization: public administration acts as a filter in this dynamic and nation-states are paradoxically strengthened by European integration. This comparison is an opportunity to underscore the importance of innovations and the singularity of modes of government, suggesting that certain arrangements put into practice in cohesion countries may provide sources of inspiration for the new entrants, which are faced with similar problems of administrative competence, bureaucratic blockages and political and state legacies that are remote from the European model of public administration, civil service organization and rules. With the effect of European constraints, a threefold dynamic is at work: a dynamic of delegation, or privatization, through the creation of agencies, offices and institutes, a dynamic of politicized (re)centralization, and a dynamic of political, institutional and social innovation. Thus components of these models are constantly borrowed and reshaped, hybrid constructions are formed and configurations take shape that are no less European than what can be found in the "heart" of Europe.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe

2094. South Korea, a new model for the new economy?

Author:
Christian Milelli
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
The "new economy" in South Korea rhymes with the Internet. In 2003, the "land of morning calm" has actually become the most connected country in the world. The present study tackles this phenomenon from a number of angles. The Internet is not only considered as a physical network but a lever of transformation of the country's economic and social life. Although the role of the state has been decisive and remains focal, it is not enough to explain the extreme rapidity with which the new electronic medium spread, which is due to a broad range of causes. The Korean experience differs from former ones in that it extends well beyond the market sphere (ecommerce) to areas such as education, volunteer associations and even politics. The emergence of a national dimension constitutes another characteristic that at first seems paradoxical, since the Internet is so universal in scope. Yet observation of the evolution of Internet traffic on the national level confirms this trend. South Korea is far from an exceptional case in Asia, but the country has taken the lead over its neighbors, becoming a new "model." Beyond these singular features, the Korean experience in the use of the Internet again demonstrates that a global "information revolution" – in other words, a process that is quickly reshaping the material bases of an entire society – is underway.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

2095. CERI: Barter and Inter-business Transactions in Russia: Trade Normalization in View after the Ruble Crisis of 1998?

Author:
Caroline Dufy
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Barter was a prominent issue in public debate during the 1990s in Russia: it prompted a more overall reflection on the nature of the Russian economy and the aim pursued by economic reforms. These major issues shaped a number of divisions: the government opposition portrayed barter as one of the pernicious effects of economic policies that gave priority to finance to the detriment of the national productive sphere. For others, it was to be interpreted as the legacy of the Soviet industrial sector and its lack of competitiveness.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2096. CERI: Developing Border Cooperation between China and Russia

Author:
Sébastien Colin
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Since the resumption of talks between China and Russia – still the Soviet Union when this occurred in the mid-1980s, relations between the two countries have been particularly dynamic. On the international level, the two countries in fact share the same viewpoint on a number of issues. These mutual concerns led to the signing of a strategic partnership in 1997, then a new treaty of friendship in 2001. The complementarity between the two countries in the energy and arms sectors also stimulates cooperation. However, this alliance is not without its limits. The United States, its primary target, can easily short-circuit it, as it did just after the September 11, 2001 attacks. In the field of cooperation, the intensity and structure of trade between the two countries are both inadequate. The rise in trade during the 1990s was very uneven and marked by a drop between 1994 and 1996. The main causes of this are situated at the local echelon along the Chinese-Russian border. After the dynamism characteristic of the 1988-1993 period, the opening of the border triggered new problems, such as illegal Chinese immigration in the little-inhabited border zones of Russia. Although this trend caused friction among the local Russian population, it was mainly the retrocession of certain Russian territories to China when the border was demarcated between 1993 and 1997 that radicalized the inhabitants, paralyzing border cooperation. The Russian and Chinese government played an active role in attempting to resolve most of these disputes, as the Tumen program illustrated. Since then, the various authorities in the two countries have tried to revitalize border cooperation, but a number of problems remain that are mainly economic in nature and vary depending on the border region.
Topic:
Development and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Asia

2097. CERI: For a theory of nationalism

Author:
Christophe Jaffrelot
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Nation is state-oriented, whereas nationalism is an ideology which may simply promote one's own identity against others. Therefore, theories of nation-building do not explain nationalism. Other theories adopting a materialist approach do, like Gellner's model in which nationalism appears as resulting from socio-ethnic conflicts, but they ignore the inner mechanism of this ideology. Theories looking at nationalism as an export product from the West also miss this point too. In contrast, a convincing body of theories anchor nationalism in socio-cultural reform. The intelligentsia which undertakes it in order to resist the threat posed by some dominant Other – often from the West, that fascinates them-eventually develops a nationalist attitude, because it is not willing to imitate the West but strive to restore its culture by incorporating into it prestigious features of the West through the invention of a convenient Golden Age, the cornerstone of nationalism. This approach finds a parallel in the theories of ethnicity which do not apply the primordialist paradigm but focus on the making of group boundaries. Barth highlights the decisive role of the relationship to the Other and the little importance of cultural contents – compared to the maintenance of group boundaries – in the making of ethnic identities, in such a way that there are more affinities between his theory of ethnicity and theories of nationalism than between the latter and theories of the nation.However, one can construct an integrated model of nationalism by organising different theories in a sequence. While the ideology-based approach comes first, the creation of a nationalist movement implies the rise of socio-economic conflicts and the massification of nationalism, a process of nation-building.
Topic:
International Relations, Demographics, Development, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2098. CERI: Le voleur et la matrice: Les enjeux du "cybernationalisme" et du "hacktivisme"

Author:
Laurent Gayer
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Cyberspace, of which the Internet is a major but not the exclusive component, is more than an informational or an economic network: it is also a political space, which deserves to be analysed as such, through the collective mobilisations, the imaginary and the surveillance practices that it conveys. Rather than looking at the internet's world politics, this paper focuses on transnational political solidarities that are now emerging on and through the Internet. This differentiation suggests that the Internet is both the vector of social struggles focused on the "real" world, and the cradle of new identifications and new modes of protest that remain and will remain primarily virtual. Activists operating through transnational "advocacy networks" may use the Internet to receive or spread information, but their use of the Information Technologies (IT) remains purely instrumental and does not imply any paradigmatic shift in the tactical uses of the media by protest groups. "Hacktivism" and "cybernationalism" appear far more promising, as far as the invention of new repertoires of collective action is concerned. "Hacktivism", which refers to the use of hacking techniques for political ends, emerged during the 1990s, at the crossroads between activism, play and art. The emergence of "hacktivism" was made possible by the meeting of two social actors that epitomize our late modernity: new social movements and the "digital underground". "Cybernationalism", for its part, was given shape in the last decade by ethnic entrepreneurs who rely on the IT to challenge the political authorities of their home states and to materialise, through words and images, the communities they are (re)inventing beyond borders.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Politics, and Science and Technology

2099. CERI: Latino Power? Political Access for Latinos in the United States

Author:
Emmanuelle Le Texier
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Since the early nineteen-eighties, the new political visibility of Latinos has been referred to as the awakening of a "sleeping giant." Their increased political expression, be it in the form of protest action during civil rights movements or electoral participation, marks a turning point in the integration of Hispanics in the American public sphere. With a growing number of voters, candidates and elected officials, Latinos have emerged on the political scene. The increasingly influential role of pan-ethnic interest groups and new opportunities for political participation created by the development of transnational networks have contributed to the elaboration of this new participative framework. Yet their electoral and political influence remains below the demographic, economic, social and cultural importance of these some 35 million individuals who make up over 12 percent of the U.S. population. Most of the minority groups still encounter major obstacles to political access. These are partly structural, but also internal to the group: not only is it divided over domestic or foreign issues, it is fragmented by national origin, status and generation. The singular nature of immigration from Latin America, the continuity of migratory flows and their diversity, all constantly rekindle divergences over what strategy Latinos should adopt for participating in the public debate. They also highlight the fictional, both functional and dysfunction, nature of ethnic categorization in the United States. The ethnic card may be an instrument of participation, but it can also prove to seriously fetter minorities' entry into politics.
Topic:
Civil Society, Demographics, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and America

2100. CERI: Municipalities in South Africa: A Shifting-Pole Autonomisation

Author:
Ivan Crouzel
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
In South Africa, the transition negotiated in order to build a post-apartheid political order has brought about a deep-seated transformation of the state. A central issue of this radical reform had to do with the territorial arrangement of the new state. Constitutional negotiations resulted in a hybrid federal type of system that distinctly reinforced the power of local government, particularly to counterbalance that of the nine provinces. At the same time, a smoother form of intergovernmental relations was introduced with the concept of "cooperative government." In contrast to the centralized system that held sway under apartheid, local government has been strengthened by a new constitutional status, which in particular guarantees an "equitable share" of the national revenue. It also ensures that municipalities are represented nationally through intergovernmental structures involving the participation of local governments.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa