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1902. The "Underclass" Revisited: A Social Problem in Decline
- Author:
- Paul A. Jargowsky and Rebecca Yang
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- No single metric can capture all the dimensions of as complex a phenomenon as poverty in an affluent society. Several different empirical strategies, each with strengths and weaknesses, may all contribute to a more complete understanding of the experience of living in poverty in a modern urban setting. The standard federal measure of poverty focuses narrowly on the income of families in comparison to a standard meant to reflect the cost of basic necessities (Orshansky 1963, 1965). The concentration of poverty adds a geographic component, by gauging the extent to which poor families are spatially isolated (Jargowsky and Bane 1991; Jargowsky 1997, 2003). Neither of these measures, however, adequately conveys the extent of social disorganization in poor neighborhoods that has figured so prominently in the political debates over public policies that address poverty and urban development.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Economics, and Poverty
1903. WTO Dispute Settlement and the Missing Developing Country Cases: Engaging the Private Sector
- Author:
- Chad P. Bown and Bernard M. Hoekman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The poorest WTO member countries almost universally fail to engage as either complainants or interested third parties in formal dispute settlement activity related to their market access interests. This paper focuses on costs of the WTO's extended litigation process as an explanation for the potential but "missing" developing country engagement. We provide a positive examination of the current system, and we catalogue and analyze a set of proposals encouraging the private sector to provide DSU-specific legal assistance to poor countries. We investigate the role of legal service centres, non-governmental organizations, development organizations, international trade litigators, economists, consumer organizations, and even law schools to provide poor countries with the missing services needed at critical stages of the WTO's extended litigation process. In the absence of systemic rules reform, the public-private partnership model imposes a substantial cooperation burden on such groups as they organize export interests, estimate the size of improved market access payoffs, prioritize across potential cases, engage domestic governments, prepare legal briefs, assist in evidentiary discovery, and pursue the public relations effort required to induce foreign political compliance.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Third World
1904. Restoring Fiscal Sanity 2005: Meeting the Long-Run Challenge
- Author:
- Alice M. Rivlin and Isabel B. Sawhill
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Sometimes good news poses hard choices. Over the next several decades Americans will be forced to make difficult decisions necessitated by the good news that people are living longer and that medical care has become far more effective (albeit more expensive) than ever in history. These choices will require adjustments by almost everyone—families, communities, employers, and older people themselves—but they will be most starkly evident in the federal budget.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Government, and Human Welfare
1905. Global Health and Global Governance: Prioritizing Health within the Framework of the Millennium Development Goals
- Author:
- Colin I. Bradford
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Global health conditions are in a state of crisis. Not only are poor health conditions in poor countries ravaging lives and restraining development, but the HIV/AIDS pandemic is threatening to undermine progress on all other fronts in developing countries and menacing the sense of health security in industrial countries.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Human Welfare, and Politics
1906. Why Did the Poorest Countries Fail to Catch Up?
- Author:
- Branko Milanovic
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- DURING THE PAST TWENTY YEARS, THE POOREST COUNTRIES of the world have fallen further behind the middle-income and rich countries. The median per capita growth of the poorest countries was zero. This is an unexpected outcome because, from the perspective of economic theory, both globalization and economic-policy convergence imply that poor countries should grow faster than the rich. The main reasons why this has not happened lie in poor countries' much greater likelihood of being involved in wars and civil conflicts. This factor alone accounts for an income loss of about 40 percent over twenty years. Slower reforms in poor countries compared with faster reforms in middle-income countries played some, albeit a minimal, role. Increased flows from multilateral lenders did not help either because the net effect of the flows on growth rates is estimated to have been zero. Finally, neither democratization nor better educational attainment of the population can be shown to have had any notable positive impact on poor countries' growth. Reducing the prevalence of conflict seems to be the first and most important step toward restoring growth.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Globalization, Poverty, and Third World
1907. Cambodia Blazes A New Path To Economic Growth and Job Creation
- Author:
- Sandra Polaski
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- A UNIQUE AND SUCCESSFUL INTERNATIONAL POLICY EXPERIMENT has been under way in Cambodia for the last six years. In the country's export apparel factories, working conditions and labor rights are monitored by inspectors from the International Labor Organization (ILO), an international public organization. The results of the inspections are published in credible, highly transparent reports that describe in detail whether the factories are in compliance with national labor laws and internationally agreed basic labor rights. These reports are published on the Internet, and a range of Cambodian and international actors use them. The U.S. government uses the reports as a key input for decisions under an innovative scheme that allows Cambodian firms to sell more apparel in the U.S. market if they improve working conditions and respect workers' rights. Private retail apparel firms that buy from Cambodian factories also use the reports. These buyers, conscious of their brand reputations, use the reliable information they find in the reports to steer orders toward compliant factories and away from noncompliant ones.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia
1908. Evaluating Palestinian Reform
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- IN PALESTINE, CITIZENS HAVE RIGHTS OF FREE SPEECH and free assembly. The most independent judiciary in the Arab world adjudicates their disputes. Palestinians select their leaders freely in competitive elections overseen by an independent electoral commission. A representative assembly monitors the executive, granting and withholding confidence from ministers and reviewing the state budget in detailed public discussions. Elected councils manage local governments that are fiscally autonomous of the center.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia
1909. Lessons Not Learned: Problems with Western Aid for Law Reform in Postcommunist Countries
- Author:
- Wade Channell
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL IN 1989 and the subsequent breakup of the Soviet Union presented an unparalleled opportunity for fundamental political and economic change in more than two dozen countries. As postcommunist countries sought to attain the economic development of their Western neighbors, it became clear that the existing framework of laws and institutions would not support the desired growth. Reformers and development experts soon identified a panoply of gaps and shortcomings in financial resources, human resources, and organizational capacity, all of which appeared ripe for outside assistance.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
1910. Judicial Reform in China: Lessons from Shanghai
- Author:
- Veron Mei-Ying Hung
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The George W. Bush administration in September 2002 laid out in the “National Security Strategy of the United States” its strategy toward China: “We welcome the emergence of a strong, peaceful, and prosperous China.” During a trip to Asia in March 2005, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice adopted a similar phrase to welcome “the rise of a confident, peaceful, and prosperous China.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Shanghai, and Asia
1911. Evaluating Middle East Reform: How Do We Know When It Is Significant?
- Author:
- Marina S. Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- This short paper launches the second set of studies in the Carnegie Papers Middle East Series. The first set, now also published as a book under the title Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, examined the most important issues concerning democracy promotion and democratic change in the Middle East. One of the conclusions that emerged from those studies is that the Middle East still offers a rather discouraging political picture. There are some liberalized autocracies but no democratic countries in the region. The link between economic and political reform remains weak. Democratic reformers have failed to build strong constituencies, and the organizations with strong constituencies are Islamist rather than democratic. The integration of Islamists in the reform process remains poor. And the United States, now championing democracy in the region, has little credibility in Arab eyes, and still has not consistently integrated democracy promotion in its policy toward the area. Yet, despite all these problems, it is becoming increasingly clear that there is a ferment of reform in the Middle East. But how significant is it?
- Topic:
- Development, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
1912. Vladimir Putin and Russia's Oil Policy
- Author:
- Martha Brill Olcott
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The honeymoon between the Western oil industry and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended in mid-2003 when the Russian procurator's office began arresting Yukos executives. The Kremlin's seemingly sudden attack on private industry surprised the international business community that was expecting investment-friendly behavior from the Russian leadership. After assuming power in late 1999, Putin quickly signaled interest in developing a strong energy partnership with the United States, including increased opportunities for Western firms to invest in Russia's oil and gas industry.
- Topic:
- Development, Energy Policy, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
1913. Competing Definitions of the Rule of Law: Implications for Practitioners
- Author:
- Rachel Kleinfeld Belton
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Definitions of the rule of law fall into two categories: (1) those that emphasize the ends that the rule of law is intended to serve within society (such as upholding law and order, or providing predictable and efficient judgments), and (2) those that highlight the institutional attributes believed necessary to actuate the rule of law (such as comprehensive laws, well-functioning courts, and trained law enforcement agencies). For practical and historical reasons, legal scholars and philosophers have favored the first type of definition. Practitioners of rule-of-law development programs tend to use the second type of definition. This paper analyzes the challenge of effectively defining the rule of law, through an examination of both types of definitions, the historical background of each, and the implications of each for rule-of-law development efforts.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, International Law, and Politics
1914. CATO Institute: The Personal Lockbox: A First Step on the Road to Social Security Reform
- Author:
- Michael Tanner
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- With President Bush's call for comprehensive Social Security reform bogged down in the morass of partisan politics, many reform advocates have suggested starting the process with smaller steps. Recently, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Rep. Jim McCrery (R-LA), Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), Rep. Sam Johnson (R-TX), and others have proposed legislation to rebate Social Security surpluses to workers in the form of contributions to personal accounts.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1915. CATO Institute: Options for Tax Reform
- Author:
- Chris Edwards
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- President Bush has established an advisory panel to study federal tax reform options. The panel is headed by former senators Connie Mack of Florida and John Breaux of Louisiana. Congressional leaders, including House Speaker Dennis Hastert and Majority Leader Tom Delay, have also pledged their support for reform.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Florida, and Louisiana
1916. CATO Institute: Robin Hood in Reverse: The Case against Economic Development Takings
- Author:
- Ilya Somin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The Fifth Amendment and most state constitutions prohibit government from condemning private property except for a “public use.”Traditionally, that has forbidden most condemnations that transfer property from one private owner to another.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
1917. CATO Institute: Peer-to-Peer Networking and Digital Rights Management: How Market Tools Can Solve Copyright Problems
- Author:
- Michael A. Einhorn and Bill Rosenblatt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The term “peer to peer” (P2P) refers generally to software that enables a computer to locate a content file on another networked device and copy the encoded data to its own hard drive. P2P technology often attracts people who use it to reproduce or distribute copyrighted music and movies without authorization of rights owners. For that reason, the short history of P2P technology has been one of constant controversy and calls by many in the content industry to regulate or even ban P2P-based networks or software.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
1918. CATO Institute: Who Killed Telecom? Why the Official Story Is Wrong
- Author:
- Lawrence Gasman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- In the mid-1990s as it seemed that lawmakers were about to abandon much of the regulatory apparatus that had hampered the telecommunications industry since the 1930s, the telecom equipment industry began to boom, helped in part by the rise of the Internet. The deregulatory trend led ultimately to the 1996 Telecom Act, and soon the architects and implementers of that act were congratulating themselves on a job well done. We were supposedly building a new telecom infrastructure fit for the information age.
- Topic:
- Development, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
1919. Nepal's Maoists: Their Aims, Structure and Strategy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In less than ten years, the Maoist insurgency has transformed Nepal. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) has spread armed conflict across the country and reshaped its political environment irrevocably. But their political aims are still questioned, and not enough is known about their structure and strategy. This background report seeks to fill in many of the gaps, based on close study of their writings and actions and a wide range of interviews, in order to provide policymakers in Nepal and the international community with information and insights needed to approach a peace process realistically.
- Topic:
- Development and Government
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Nepal
1920. Reforming Egypt: In Search of a Strategy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Egypt's first multi-candidate presidential election, a response to U.S. pressure, was a false start for reform. Formal pluralism has never seriously limited the dominance of President Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP); extension to the presidential level is a token so long as the opposition is too weak to produce plausible candidates. If the further reforms Mubarak has promised are to be meaningful, they should be aimed at recasting state/NDP relations and, above all, enhancing parliament's powers. As a start, Mubarak should ensure free and fair November legislative elections. The legal opposition must make the case for these changes and overcome its divisions if it is to become relevant and be able to compete with the Muslim Brothers for popular influence. The U.S. and others should support judicial supervision of elections, refrain from pressing for quick, cosmetic results, and back a longer-term, genuine reform process.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, North Africa, and Egypt
1921. The AU's Mission in Darfur: Bridging the Gaps
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The international community is failing in its responsibility to protect the inhabitants of Darfur, many of whom are still dying or face indefinite displacement from their homes. New thinking and bold action are urgently needed. The consensus to support a rough doubling of the African Union (AU) force to 7,731 troops by the end of September 2005 under the existing mandate is an inadequate response to the crisis. The mandate must be strengthened to prioritise civilian protection, and a force level of at least 12,000 to 15,000 is needed urgently now, not in nearly a year as currently envisaged.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1922. Stopping Guinea's Slide
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Guinea risks becoming West Africa's next failed state. Its economy is faltering, the government has nearly ceased to provide services, and in 2004, there were isolated uprisings in at least eight towns and cities in all regions of the country. Getting it wrong in Guinea now could have disastrous consequences. Getting it right will require a greater engagement by both the Guinean population and the diplomatic and donor communities, including a focus much more on reforming institutions than on the immediate personnel issues involved in the succession to the ailing and dictatorial president, Lansana Conté.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, West Africa, and Guinea
1923. Iraq: Don't Rush the Constitution
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The next stage in Iraq's political transition, the drafting and adoption of a permanent constitution, will be critical to the country's long-term stability. Iraqis face a dilemma: rush the constitutional process and meet the current deadline of 15 August 2005 to prevent the insurgents from scoring further political points, or encourage a process that is inclusive, transparent and participatory in an effort to increase popular buy-in of the final product. While there are downsides to delay, they are far outweighed by the dangers of a hurried job that could lead to either popular rejection of or popular resignation to a text toward which they feel little sense of ownership or pride.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
1924. Sources and Effectiveness of Financial Development: What We Know and What We Need to Know
- Author:
- Panicos O. Demetriades and Svetlana Andrianova
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Drawing on recent literature, the paper argue s that institutions and political economy factors hold the key to understanding why some countries have succeeded in developing their financial systems while others have not. The paper also reviews new evidence which suggests that institutional quality may influence the effectiveness of financial development in delivering economic growth. These new findings highlight the possibility that poor countries may be stuck in a bad equilibrium, in which weak institutions inhibit growth both directly and indirectly, through under-developed, low- quality finance. In addition, the paper identifies a number of unanswered questions in the financial development literature, including the precise role of important institutions like law in finance, and the influence of geographical factors.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Political Economy, and Third World
1925. The Poverty Macroeconomic Policy Nexus: Some Short-run Analytics
- Author:
- George Mavrotas and S. Mansoob Murshed
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The present paper utilises a short-run theoretical macroeconomic model of a small open economy to look at the impact of macroeconomic policies and financial deepening upon poverty through sectoral changes. This is because an expansion in certain sectors may cause greater poverty reduction. The model involves a non-traded and a traded sector on the formal side of the economy. The former is more capital intensive and the latter more unskilled labour intensive. Increased employment in the traded sector is more pro-poor compared to a similar rise in the non-traded sector as the former draws workers out of poverty in the informal sector. The model in our paper analyses short-run effects of devaluation, a rise in the money supply induced by financial deepening, and taxation to discourage non-traded goods consumption. Financial deepening can induce greater output and reduce poverty. Other results are mixed and taxonomic. We also attempt to differentiate between the stylised experiences of East Asia and Latin America. East Asian economies have relied more heavily on labour-intensive manufactured exports, whereas Latin America has had a relatively greater share of capital intensive and natural resource based exports. In recent decades countries in these two regions have had differing experiences in poverty reduction, with poverty arguably declining more in East Asia.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- East Asia and Latin America
1926. Does Financial Openness Promote Economic Integration? Some Evidence from Europe and the CIS
- Author:
- Fabrizio Carmignani and Abdur Chowdhury
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We study whether financial openness facilitates the economic integration of formerly centrally planned economies with the EU- 15. Two dimensions of economic integration are considered: cross-country convergence of per-capita incomes and bilateral trade in goods and services. We find that more financially open economies effectively catch-up faster and trade more with the EU-15. These integration-enhancing effects occur over and above any effect stemming from domestic financial deepening and other factors determining growth and trade.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1927. The Effects of (within and with EU) Regional Integration: Impact on Real Effective Exchange Rate Volatility, Institutional Quality and Growth for MENA Countries
- Author:
- Iftekhar Hasan and Leonardo Becchetti
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We analyse two potential effects arising from regional (and with EU) integration—increased quality of institutions (including the quality of financial institutions) and, economic policies and reduced multilateral exchange rate volatility— in a conditional convergence growth framework for MENA countries. To this purpose we outline an ad hoc methodology which implements the traditional bilateral exchange rate measures to test effects of multilateral exchange rate volatility on growth of per capita GDP. Our estimates show that both factors (quality of institutions and reduction of multilateral volatility) significantly and positively affect growth and conditional convergence. We observe that MENA countries are not far from EU and OECD countries in terms of exchange rate volatility, but much below in terms of institutional quality. We finally simulate the potential effects of an improvement in institutional quality in MENA countries on their process of growth and conditional convergence. We conclude arguing that regional integration may be highly beneficial for such countries, mainly because of its effects on institutional quality.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1928. Education, Financial Institutions, Inflation and Growth
- Author:
- Iftekhar Hasan, Leonardo Becchetti, and George Mavrotas
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Our paper investigates the unexplored impact of education on inflation and of this relationship on economic growth. By using a sample of 102 countries observed on non-overlapping five-year data spells over the period 1963-2001, we find that average schooling years of the working population have a significant negative impact on inflation rates after controlling for the effects of the stance of domestic monetary policy. We also show that the negative impact of inflation on growth in conditional convergence estimates is significantly increased when the former is instrumented by educational variables. Our findings outline a third potential role of human capital on conditional convergence. They show that education is not only a production factor or a variable which may reduce demographic pressures, but also an important antidote against inflationary pressures which, in turn, negatively affect economic growth and conditional convergence. We interpret our findings by identifying three potential rationales for the education-inflation nexus: (i) education raises consumers' awareness of their power in contrasting producers' inflationary pressures; (ii) more educated individuals have lower inflationary expectations when they are also wealthier and their consumption bundle is relatively less (more) intensive in inferior (superior) goods with higher (lower) inflation potential; (iii) more (less) educated and wealthier (less wealthy) individuals tend to be net creditors (debtors) in their maturity, thereby contributing to increase (reduce) the power of anti-inflationary lobbies.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Education
1929. Financial Sector Development, Savings Mobilization and Poverty Reduction in Ghana
- Author:
- Peter Quartey
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The paper primarily investigates the interrelationship between financial sector development and poverty reduction in Ghana. This is done using time-series data from the World Development Indicators from 1970-2001. The main findings are, first, that even though financial sector development does not Granger-cause savings mobilization in Ghana, it induces poverty reduction; and second, that savings do Granger-cause poverty reduction in Ghana. Also, the effect of financial sector development on poverty reduction is positive but insignificant. This is due to the fact that financial intermediaries in Ghana have not adequately channelled savings to the pro-poor sectors of the economy because of government deficit financing, high default rate, lack of collateral and lack of proper business proposals. Another interesting finding is that there is a long-run co integration relationship between financial sector development and poverty reduction.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
1930. Financial Markets and R Investments: A Discrete-Time Model to Interpret Public Policies
- Author:
- Marco Mazzoli
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper introduces a discrete-time intertemporal investment model in which the flow of profits affects the risk premium on the cost of finance, and, as a consequence, the rate of discount of future profits. While public investments, according to a consolidated literature, constitute the main bulk of innovation policies, this model is used to comment and interpret the potential use of another, secondary, public policy, consisting of tax incentives for firms performing R expenditures and issuing securities in the stock market. Linking public policies for innovation to the stock market might help to reduce the problems of discretionality and the monitoring of public expenditure used to finance R and technical innovation.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
1931. Does Financial Liberalization Influence Saving, Investment and Economic Growth? Evidence from 25 Emerging Market Economies, 1973-96
- Author:
- Robert Lensink and Niels Hermes
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to investigate the relationship between financial liberalization on the one hand and saving, investment and economic growth on the other hand, using a new dataset for measuring financial liberalization for a sample of 25 developing economies over the period 1973-96. We find no evidence that financial liberalization affects domestic saving and total investment (although there are some signs to believe that liberalization may actually reduce rather than increase domestic saving), whereas it is positively associated with private investment, as well as with per capita GDP growth. We find a negative relationship between financial liberalization and public investment. These results suggest that financial liberalization leads to a substitution from public to private investment, which may contribute to higher economic growth.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
1932. Financial Sector Development and Productivity Growth
- Author:
- George Mavrotas and Subal C. Kumbhakar
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Recent years have witnessed important structural changes around the world as a result of the globalization process, the creation of new economic blocks and the liberalization of financial sector in many countries. Responding to these changes many sectors of the industrialized countries have gone through major deregulatory changes to acclimate themselves to new environments. At the same time, many countries have undertaken institutional reforms to build a market-orientated financial system in the hope that transition towards market economy will improve productivity. In the face of uncertainty resulting from changes in regulatory structure and the development of financial institutions to foster market economy, many countries may not be able to achieve their maximum growth potential. In other words, productivity growth is likely to depend on the development of financial institutions and the stage of economic development That is, a less developed country is likely to benefit more (in terms of output growth rate) from the development of financial institutions than a developed economy with well-developed financial system. In this paper we document this by using data covering 65 countries, varying substantially in term s of level of development and geographic location, and spanning the period 1960-1999. Empirical results obtained from the estimation of two different empirical models regarding the measurement of total factor productivity growth seem to confirm a priori expectations about the overall positive influence of financial systems on productivity in line with previous work on this front. Our results remain robust with respect to alternative definitions of financial sector development we tried.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
1933. The Tax Reform Experience of Kenya
- Author:
- Stephen Njuguna Karingi and Bernadette Wanjal
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- In evaluating tax reform in the developing countries, one first needs to determine what is the unique role of the tax system in each particular country. One of the key reasons for undertaking tax reforms in Kenya was to ad dress issues of in equality and to create a sustainable tax system that could generate adequate revenue to finance public expenditures. In this respect, the tax modernization programme introduced in the country was to achieve a tax system that was sustainable in the face of changing conditions domestically and internationally. Policy was shifted towards greater reliance on indirect taxes as opposed to direct taxes. Consumption taxes were seen to be more favourable to investments and hence growth. Trade taxes, instead of being used for protection or revenue-maximization purposes, were viewed more as instruments to foster export-led industrialization. Trade taxes were therefore used to create a competitive exports sector rather than protect the import-competing manufacturing sector, as had been done in the past.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
1934. Tax Reforms in Ghana
- Author:
- Peter Quartey and Robert Darko Osei
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Ghana's tax reforms constitute the major policy instrument needed to accelerate growth and poverty reduction. Over the past two decades, the government has consistently spent more revenue than it is able to generate and the gap is often financed with foreign aid which has perpetuated the country's aid dependency. Two options can be explored to reduce the gap between government revenue and expenditure; generate more revenue or reduce government expenditure. Although the latter sounds reasonable, the government needs to spend more on key sectors like education, health and infrastructure if the country is to significantly reduce poverty. The critical issue has been how to generate the needed resources domestically, using tax instruments that are least harmful to the poor. This will obviously involve reforming the tax system to ensure efficiency by widening the tax net without necessarily increasing the tax rate. This paper provides an assessment of the changing structure of the tax system in Ghana over the last two decades and suggests ways to improve tax administration in the country.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
1935. Consistent Testing for Poverty Dominance
- Author:
- Bram Thuysbaert and Ricardas Zitikis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- If uncertainty exists over the exact location of the poverty line or over which measure to use to compare poverty between distributions, one may want to check whether poverty dominance holds. We develop a consistent statistical test to test the null of poverty dominance against the alternative of nondominance. Dominance criteria corresponding to absolute and relative poverty measures are dealt with. The poverty line is allowed to depend on the income distribution. A bootstrap procedure is proposed to estimate critical values for the test. Our results cover both independent and paired samples.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Economics, and Poverty
1936. The Microeconomics of Inequality, Poverty and Market Liberalizing Reforms
- Author:
- Rafael E. De Hoyos
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper illustrates how the use of microeconometric techniques can be used to uncover the micro dynamics behind macro shocks. Using Mexican micro data we find out that—controlling for everything else—between 1994 and 1998 returns to personal characteristics in the tradable sector increase d particularly those of skilled labourers. By the year 2000 the positive shock upon the tradeable sector vanishes with returns to personal characteristics converging to the levels observed in the non-tradable sector. We use our model's results to simulate a scenario where the Mexican economy experienced the negative shock of the peso crises in the absence of trade liberalization (NAFTA) and find out that under such a scenario the poverty headcount ratio would have increased more than 2 percentage points above the one observed in 1996. The simulated second- order effect of these changes shows that the skill mixed changed in a way that favoured relatively skilled men and relatively unskilled women. These changes in labour participation and occupation had an overall positive income effect though adverse in distributive terms.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Central America
1937. Poverty Measurement and Theories of Beneficence
- Author:
- S. Subramanian
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This note points to certain similarities of orientation and outcome between Derek Parfit's quest for a theory of beneficence and Amartya Sen's quest for a suitable real-valued representation of poverty. It suggests th at both projects, in a certain sense, have been instructive failures. Using Sen's own work, the note also suggests a logically natural way of dealing with some of the problems in poverty measurement reviewed in it—but only to reject this way out on other compelling grounds.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Economics, and Poverty
1938. The Fiscal Effects of Aid in Ghana
- Author:
- Robert Osei, Oliver Morrissey, and Tim Lloyd
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- An important feature of aid to developing countries is that it is given to the government. As a result, aid should be expected to affect fiscal behaviour, although theory and existing evidence is ambiguous regarding the nature of these effects. This paper applies techniques developed in the 'macroeconometrics' literature to estimate the dynamic linkages between aid and fiscal aggregates. Vector autoregressive methods are applied to 34 years of annual data in Ghana to model the effect of aid on fiscal behaviour. Results suggest that aid to Ghana has been associated with reduced domestic borrowing and increased tax effort, combining to increase public spending. This constructive use of aid to maintain fiscal balance is evident since the mid-1980s, following Ghana's structural adjustment programme. The pa per provides evidence that aid has been associated with improved fiscal performance in Ghana, implying that the aid has been used sensibly (at least in fiscal terms).
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
1939. Aid and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Accounting for Transmission Mechanisms
- Author:
- Oliver Morrissey, Karuna Gomanee, and Sourafel Girma
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper is a contribution to the literature on aid and growth. Despite an extensive empirical literature in this area, existing studies have not addressed directly the mechanisms via which aid should affect growth. We identify investment as the most significant transmission mechanism, and also consider effects through financing imports and government consumption spending. With the use of residual generated regressors, we achieve a measure of the total effect of aid on growth, accounting for the effect via investment. Pooled panel results for a sample of 25 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1970 to 1997 point to a significant positive effect of foreign aid on growth, ceteris paribus. On average, each one percentage point increase in the aid/GNP ratio contributes one-quarter of one percentage point to the growth rate. Africa's poor growth record should not therefore be attributed to aid ineffectiveness.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1940. Innovative Ways of Making Aid Effective in Ghana: Tied Aid versus Direct Budgetary Support
- Author:
- Peter Quartey
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- There has been significant amount of aid inflow s to developing countries including Ghana, but these have been very volatile. Aid flows have been associated with low domestic resource mobilization and have reduced Ghana to a country heavily dependent on aid. The amount of official development assistance (ODA) inflow s has fallen in recent years and has become unpredictable. It is general knowledge that aid has not yielded the desired benefit. In an attempt to improve aid effectiveness donors have used tie d aid not just to promote commercial interests but also to target aid to particular projects that have direct links with poverty. However, this has not yielded the maximum benefits required. Recently, the government of Ghana and its development partners agreed on an aid package dubbed the multi-donor budgetary support (MDBS), which would ensure continuous flow of aid to finance the government's poverty related expenditures.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
1941. Poverty and the Welfare Costs of Risk Associated with Globalization
- Author:
- Ethan Ligon
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- 'Globalization' implies change, and uncertainty over future change may affect household welfare. We use data on Lorenz curves over the last fifty years for a sample of 53 (mostly developing) countries. Treating each country-quintile-year as an observation, we first account for variation in consumption expenditures, finding that global shocks are of less importance than country -level shocks in explaining variation in country-quintile consumption growth. While poorer households experience more rapid consumption growth than do wealthier households, they also bear much more risk. However, we find no evidence that this greater risk is related to globalization.
- Topic:
- Development, Globalization, Human Welfare, and Poverty
1942. It Works; It Doesn't; It Can, But That Depends...: 50 Years of Controversy over the Macroeconomic Impact of Development Aid
- Author:
- Mark McGillivray, Simon Feeny, Robert Lensink, and Niels Hermes
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper surveys 50 years of empirical research on the macroeconomic impact of aid, looking mainly at studies examining the link between aid and growth. It argues that studies dating until the late 1990s produced either contradictory or inconclusive results. Aid either worked, or it didn't, according to this research. The paper then highlights a major shift in the literature that coincided with the release of the World Bank's Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn't and Why. Practically all research published since that report agrees with its general finding that aid works, to the extent that in its absence growth would be lower. One controversy may therefore have been settled. Yet, we show, the report has set-off an intense de bate over the context in which aid works. That debate centres on whether the effectiveness of these inflows depends on the policy regime of recipient countries. Some possible avenues through which the heat might be taken out of this debate are considered.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Debt, Development, and Economics
1943. Explaining Threshold Effects of Globalization on Poverty: An Institutional Perspective
- Author:
- Alice Sindzingre
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The paper focuses on the non-linearity of the transmission of the impact of globalization on poverty and the existence of threshold effects. Institutions constitute a critical factor for the creation of threshold effects in the impact of globalization on poverty. Institutions—their credibility, ability to be transformed by globalization, and the ways they give the poor access to the beneficial effects of globalization—determine whether the benefits of globalization are spread to the poor or are locked in by particular groups. They also determine whether or not the negative shocks associated with globalization are transmitted in an unfettered manner. The paper presents a theory of institutions that distinguishes several components, which evolve differently and explain the threshold effects that institutions generate upon the impact of globalization on the poor. The paper then shows that social institutions and norms have a critical role in the generation of these threshold effects. It finally examines the interactions between social institutions and state policies institutions, which may contribute to the formation of poverty traps.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Globalization, and Poverty
1944. Inequality, Corruption, and Competition in the Presence of Market Imperfections
- Author:
- Indranil Dutta and Ajit Mishra
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We analyze the relation between inequality, corruption and competition in a developing economy context where markets are imperfect. We consider an economy where different types of households (efficient and inefficient) choose to undertake production activities. For production, households borrow capital from the credit market. They also incur non-input costs which they could avoid by bribing inspectors. Due to information asymmetry and wealth inequality, the credit market fails to screen out the inefficient types. In addition to the imperfect screening, the inefficient type's entry is further facilitated by corruption. We analyze the market equilibrium and look at some of the implications. We show that a rise in inequality can lead to an increase in corruption along with greater competition.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Human Welfare
1945. The Political Economy of Postwar Reconstruction in Lebanon
- Author:
- Ghassan Dibeh
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper studies the postwar economic and political reconstruction in Lebanon. The paper shows that the 'reconstruction boom' was short-lived. The economy experienced a growth trap early in the reconstruction period, and entered a cyclical crisis in 1998 which resulted from an ill-designed fiscal-monetary policy mix. The expansionary fiscal policy resulting from the high resource demands — due to economic and political reconstruction and from the needs of addressing horizontal inequality codified in the peace agreement known as the Taef Accords — led to a fiscal crisis of the state. The monetary and central bank policy was finance-biased with emphasis on financial and exchange rate stability and foreign capital inflows. Such a mix led to a real interest rate shock in the postwar period that played a role in the onset of the cyclical downturn. The finance-biased policy led to the rise of a rentier economy leading to deindustrialization during this period. The rise of a growth-impeding political economic structure resulting from the Taef Accords also played a role in intensifying the economic crisis through exerting pressures on public resources and through the engendering of a political crisis that brought to an end the era of postwar reconstruction.
- Topic:
- Development, Political Economy, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
1946. Trade Openness and Vulnerability in Central and Eastern Europe
- Author:
- Pierluigi Montalbano, Alessandro Federici, Umberto Triulzi, and Carlo Pietrobelli
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper offers a substantive contribution to the debate on the role of international trade on the development of emerging countries. The aim is to detect empirically the phenomenon of vulnerability induced by trade openness. The methodology adopts a forward-looking approach and tries to fill a missing link in the theory between trade shocks, volatility, and the wellbeing of countries, distinguishing between 'normal' and 'extreme' volatility.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
1947. Financial Sector Structure and Financial Crisis Burden: A Model Based on the Russian Default of 1998
- Author:
- George Mavrotas and Dmitri Vinogradov
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We consider an overlapping generations model with two production factors and two types of agents in the presence of financial intermediation and its application to the Russian default of August 1998. The paper focuses on the analysis of the consequences of a sudden negative repayments shock on financial intermediation capacity and consequently on the economy as a whole. The model exhibits a 'chain reaction' property, when a single macroeconomic shock can lead to the exhaustion of credit resources and to the subsequent collapse of the whole banking system. To maintain the capability of the system to recover, regulatory intervention is needed even in the presence of the state guarantees on agents' deposits in the banks (workout incentives). We compare the results for an intermediated economy with those derived under the assumption of a market economy, and draw some broad conclusions on the consequences of the crises, which are contingent on the financial sector structure.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1948. Economic Agendas in Civil Wars: What We Know, What We Need to Know
- Author:
- Heiko Nitzschke and David M. Malone
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The political economy of civil wars has acquired unprecedented scholarly and policy attention. Among others, the International Peace Academy's programme on Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (EACW) has aimed to contribute to a better understanding of the complex dynamics of civil war economies and has identified areas for policy development critical for improved conflict prevention, conflict resolution, and postconflict peacebuilding. While much of the earlier debate on the economic dimensions has been polarized around the 'greed versus grievance' dichotomy, there is now a better understanding of how economic dynamics can influence the onset, character, and duration of armed conflicts. This paper discusses key research findings and their policy relevance, provides a preliminary assessment of policy efforts to address the economic dimensions of conflict and conflict transformation, and offers some issues for further research and policy action.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Development, Economics, and Political Economy
1949. A Macro Policy for Poverty Eradication through Structural Change
- Author:
- Rehman Sobhan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper argues that poverty originates in the structural injustices of a social order which incapacitates the poor from participating in the growth generating sectors of the economy and leaves them captives in the so called informal sector, characterized by low productivity and low earning capacity. In such a system the poor remain individualized and hence disempowered which compels them to interface with the market economy on highly inequitable terms which relegates them to the lowest tiers of the value addition chain. The need for a macro-policy designed to eliminate poverty is premised on the argument that poverty originates in the structural features of society which can only be addressed at the macro-level. Policy interventions, to redesign the structural sources of poverty, bring into consideration issues of social, political as well as economic reform.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and Poverty
1950. Africa and the Challenge of Globalization
- Author:
- Jeffrey Herbst
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper provides an overview of Africa's economic performance. Although the continent appeared headed for economic success in the early days of independence, based particularly on natural resource endowments, Africa's economic growth has stagnated while the rest of the world has experienced continuous, often spectacular, growth. The countries in Africa that have had the worst performance are those that contain the majority of the population. These states, in particular, suffer most from a crisis of governance and lack the policy and legal frameworks to grow quickly. The states in Africa can be divided into six categories and each grouping faces a different set of challenges from globalization: 1) high performers ready to globalize; 2) countries on an upward trajectory; 3) large, poorly performing countries; 4) poorly performing countries; 5) countries in collapse; and 6) oil producing countries. Only the states in the first two groupings are currently able to participate in the globalized economy.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1951. The Impact of RMA on Conventional Deterrence: A Theoretical Analysis
- Author:
- Manjeet S. Pardesi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- This research aims to theoretically study if deterrence will prevail if and when states with RMA-ed militaries are faced with the prospect of conventional war. To answer this question, this study analyzes the impact of transformation on conventional deterrence in the event of a military standoff for three theoretical scenarios–(1) RMA capable conventional military vs. RMA-incapable conventional military (with the former state being nuclear or non-nuclear and with the latter being non-nuclear), (2) two RMA-capable conventional militaries (both states non-nuclear), and (3) two RMA-capable conventional militaries (both states nuclear). The study concludes that the current defense transformation is revolutionary simply because it permits the possibility of a limited conventional armed conflict between two nuclear weapons states (including great powers) and as such attempts to resuscitate the role of conventional military power in international politics. On the other hand, analogous to the nuclear revolution, the possession of RMA capabilities by two non-nuclear belligerents is likely to render large-scale conventional armed conflicts with unlimited military objectives between them unthinkable. However, this study warns that deterrence is weakened when only one state in an adversarial dyad is RMA-capable. Moreover, in any dyad involving RMA-capable states, deterrence is weakened when the RMA-capable state contemplates a strategy of limited aims (political and/or military) vis-à-vis its adversary. This tendency is all the more pronounced when it is contemplating a limited war waged with air power and missile strikes (low-cost, low-risk) than a limited war for territorial gains.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Development, and War
1952. Exploring the Emerging Social Movements in Africa at the Third African Social Forum
- Author:
- Marie Clark Brill
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- The African Social Forum was born out of the larger World Social Forum, which provides an annual open meeting place where groups and movements of civil society come together to dialogue and network towards collaborative action. The Third African Social Forum (ASF) took place in Lusaka, Zambia in mid-December 2004. This report includes notes and analysis of the African Social Forum and provides reflection s on emerging social movements in Africa.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Lusaka, and Zambia
1953. A Silent Tsunami: The Urgent Need for Clean Water and Sanitation
- Author:
- William K. Reilly and Harriet C. Babbitt
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Few issues matter more to public health, economic opportunity, and environmental integrity than the availability of clean water and sanitation. With the 4th World Water Forum scheduled for Mexico City in March 2006, the Aspen Institute and the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University conducted a multistakeholder dialogue to help highlight the importance of global water issues, suggest steps to provide services more rapidly and effectively, and to identify and draw attention to constructive ways the US government and other US participants can take part in the Forum.
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, Government, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- United States and Mexico
1954. Opening Opportunities, Building Ownership: Fulfilling the Promise of Microenterprise in the United States
- Author:
- Elaine L. Edgcomb and Joyce A. Klein
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- The notion that a person can turn a dream into a small business by applying healthy doses of ingenuity, elbow grease and grit has resonated with Americans from the earliest days of this nation. Indeed, there is something so intrinsically appealing about that scenario that more than 22 million Americans are small business owners today—including some 20 million who operate "micro"—or very small—enterprises.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Environment, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
1955. Information Technology and the New Global Economy: Tensions, Opportunities, and the Role of Public Policy
- Author:
- David Bollier
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Changes in technology have been transforming commerce, politics, and culture for centuries. Yet it is now becoming clear that the explosion of the Internet and assorted digital technologies is provoking epochal changes in the global economy. Finance capital now roams the world with unprecedented speed. Transportation and logistics have become radically more efficient. Work readily moves to wherever it can be most skillfully and cheaply performed. Innovation and productivity are forging ahead, sometimes at blinding speeds.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Globalization, Government, and Science and Technology
1956. Getting Serious about the Twin Deficits
- Author:
- Menzie D. Chinn
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Twenty years ago, the United States was the world's largest creditor nation, unsurpassed in its ownership of assets outside of its borders, even after deducting what foreigners owned inside its borders. Yet over the past two decades, America has been transformed into the world's largest debtor nation. At the end of 2004, its debts to the rest of the world exceeded its assets by about $2.5 trillion—21 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). This proportion is unmatched by any other major developed economy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
1957. Power-Sharing in Iraq
- Author:
- David L. Phillips
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Iraq's elections on January 30, 2005, were a watershed in the country's history. Still, democracy involves much more than voting. It is about the distribution of political power through institutions and laws that guarantee accountable rule. The real fight for power will be over Iraq's permanent constitution.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
1958. The Current State of the Japanese Economy
- Author:
- Edward J. Lincoln
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and East Asia
1959. Human Capital, R and Competition in Macroeconomic Analysis
- Author:
- Erik Canton, Bert Minne, Ate Nieuwenhuis, Bert Smid, and Mark van der Steeg
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Long-run per capita economic growth is driven by productivity growth. Major determinants of productivity are investments in education and research, and the intensity of competition on product markets. While these ideas have been incorporated into modern growth theories and tested in empirical analyses, they have not yet found their way to applied macroeconomic models used to forecast economic developments. In this paper, we discuss various options to include human capital, R and product market competition in a macroeconomic framework. We also study how policy can affect the decisions to build human capital or to perform research, and how competition policy impacts on macroeconomic outcomes. We finally sketch how these mechanisms can be implemented into the large models used at the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- Netherlands
1960. Hub-and-Spoke or Else? Free Trade Agreements in the Enlarged EU - A Gravity Model Estimate
- Author:
- Luca De Benedictis, Roberta De Santis, and Claudio Vicarelli
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the EU's eastern enlargement on the trade patterns of the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs)1 that joined the EU in May 2004. In particular, the paper investigates whether and how the EU free trade agreements (FTAs) with the CEECs affected centre-peripheral and intra-peripheral trade flows. It also evaluates whether the prospect of joining the EU had the added positive effects on the export flows of the CEECs that had been anticipated.
- Topic:
- Development and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Eastern Europe
1961. Iran: The Moment of Truth
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson, François Heisbourg, and Vladimir Sazhin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The definition of European policy objectives and strategies vis-à-vis Iran's nuclear ambitions must take into account the specificities of the case, setting, as it were, its problématique. First, we have the unusual situation of a basically three-way game: the EU (and notably the EU-3, comprising the UK, France and Germany), Iran and the 'significant other', the United States, which is outside of the negotiation but a key player. Any student in strategy knows that a triangle is the most unstable and tricky combination to deal with, and the presence of yet another set of outsiders (notably Russia and China) adds another element of complexity.
- Topic:
- Development and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany
1962. Is the European Economy a Patient and the Union its Doctor? On Jobs and Growth in Europe
- Author:
- Sjef Ederveen, Albert van der Hoorst, and Paul Tang
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- A stronger focus on jobs and growth is part of an effort to renew the Lisbon strategy. Yet the view that economic expansion contributes to maintaining Lisbon's other goals of social cohesion as well as the environment is somewhat optimistic. First, there are structural trade-offs among the central elements of the Lisbon strategy. Escaping these trade-offs temporarily is sometimes possible but requires policy changes. Second, higher productivity (growth) may not provide more structural room for governments to manoeuvre. It leads to higher tax receipts but also to higher public expenditures since public sector wages and social security benefits are linked to productivity. In contrast, more employment (jobs) is associated with a smaller public sector. But to engineer the increase in employment, changes in welfare state arrangements are needed. In other words, focussing solely on the sick child will probably harm the other children.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Economics, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Lisbon
1963. Speed of Convergence and Relocation: New EU Member Countries Catching up with the Old
- Author:
- Kari E. O. Alho, Ville Kaitili, and Mike Widgrén
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Economic convergence of the EU's new member countries (NMCs) towards the incumbent EU countries (EU-15) is of paramount importance for both partners, not only in terms of real income but also in nominal terms. In this study we build a dynamic, computable general equilibrium model, starting from the Balassa-Samuelson two-sector framework, then modify and enlarge it (with, among other things, endogenous capital formation, consumption behaviour and labour mobility) to address several other issues such as uncertainty, welfare and sustainability in terms of foreign indebtedness. At the same time we make flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) endogenous in order to evaluate the impact convergence has on the EU-15 and the inter action between the two regions through FDI. We find that in a general equilibrium setting, fears of adverse effects resulting from a relocation of EU-15 manufacturing to the NMCs are not well founded.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1964. The Rise of China with Special Reference to Arms Supplies
- Author:
- Peter Brookes, Bruno Tertrais, and Alexei D. Voskressenski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Like the rest of the world, Europe has been fascinated by the emergence of China for a long time, and there has been an official relationship between the EU and the People's Republic of China for 30 years now. This relationship was upgraded in 1998. It now takes the form of a China-EU summit every year, the latest having taken place in December 2004. The EU became China's main trading partner in 2004, with trade between the two parties soaring to €160 billion.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation and Development
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
1965. Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area
- Author:
- Ville Kaitila
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This working paper analyses conditional convergence in Europe and also tries to assess the impact that arises from integration. Using a pooled mean-group estimation method, we first analyse the conditional convergence of GDP per labour force in the area covering the 15 member states of the European Union (EU-15) in 1960-2002. Conditional convergence is well-documented for the EU- 15. Higher investment, lower public consumption and lower inflation have contributed positively to GDP growth. Deeper European integration is shown to have accelerated growth when inflation is not included in the specification, but not otherwise. The evidence on the effect of integration on growth is therefore mixed. We then apply the same method to estimate the growth of GDP per labour force in the new EU member states – the eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) – for the period 1993-2002. These countries are shown to have converged conditionally towards the average level of GDP per labour force in the EU-15. Higher investment and lower public consumption have also supported growth in the CEECs.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Development
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1966. Predicting Trade Expansion under FTAs and Multilateral Agreements
- Author:
- Dean A. DeRosa and John P. Gilbert
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the historical record of eight recent free trade agreements (FTAs). It also investigates the predictive power of two popular quantitative world trade models—the single-equation gravity model and the multiequation computable general equilibrium (CGE) model—as applied to three major trade liberalization agreements adopted during the 1990s: Mercosur, NAFTA, and the Uruguay Round Agreement, using the Rose gravity model and the GTAP general equilibrium model. Both models are found accurate in some instances, but intervening influences in the wake of trade liberalization episodes confound the challenge of drawing a strong conclusion in favor of one modeling approach over the other. Between the "naïve" gravity model and "naïve" CGE model predictions, we find that the former tends to overpredict intrabloc trade expansion (especially over horizons of five years and less) while the latter tends to underpredict. CGE models remain favored for ex post analysis of welfare impacts and the direct and indirect linkages between policy reforms and the numerous other economic variables of concern to policymakers and the public at large.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
1967. The US Trade Deficit: A Disaggregated Perspective
- Author:
- Catherine L. Mann and Katharina Plück
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The paper prepares new estimates for the elasticity of US trade flows using bilateral, commodity-detailed trade data for 31 countries, using measures of expenditure and trade prices matched to commodity groups, and including a commodity-and-country specific proxy for global supply-cum-variety. Using the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade) we construct bilateral trade flows for 31 countries in four categories of goods based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis's "end-use" classification system--autos, industrial supplies and materials-excluding energy, consumer goods, and capital goods. We find that using expenditure matched to commodity category yields more plausible values for the demand elasticities than does using GDP as the measure of demand that drives trade flows. Controlling for country and commodity fixed effects, we find that industrial and developing countries have demand elasticities that are statistically significant and that generally differ between development groups and across product categories. Relative prices for the industrial countries have plausible parameter values, are statistically significant and differ across product groups, but the relative prices for developing countries are poorly estimated. We find that variety is an important variable for the behavior of capital goods trade. Because the commodity composition of trade and of trading partners has changed dramatically, particularly for imports, we find that the demand elasticity for imports is not constant. Comparing the in-sample performance of the disaggregated model against a benchmark that uses aggregated data and GDP as the expenditure variable, our disaggregated model predicts exports better in-sample but does not predict imports as well as the benchmark model.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
1968. Postponing Global Adjustment: An Analysis of the Pending Adjustment of Global Imbalances
- Author:
- Edwin M. Truman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Halving the US current account deficit as a share of GDP is likely to impose a burden of $2,350 per capita on the United States, which explains why US policymakers want to postpone adjustment. The rest of the world relies on the economic stimulus of a widening US external deficit, which explains why they are not eager to see global adjustment. The paper examines three scenarios of exchange rate adjustments, calls on the Federal Reserve to take more account of the external deficit in its words and policy actions, and familiarly notes the need for US fiscal adjustment as part of an efficient adjustment process. Complementary policies are required in the rest of the world. The paper discusses the pattern of recent international capital flows and proposes an international reserve diversification standard to remove some of the uncertainty about the management of foreign exchange reserves.
- Topic:
- Debt, Development, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- United States
1969. What Iraq and Argentina Might Learn from Each Other
- Author:
- Anna Gelpern
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Financial collapse usually triggers a flurry of market, academic, and policy innovation. The Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s produced the Brady Bonds and led to the rise of today's emerging markets. In the late 1990s, crises in Pakistan, Ecuador, and Ukraine helped teach the markets how to restructure international sovereign bonds. Crises in Mexico, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and throughout East Asia raised doubts about the international system's ability to manage vast and rapid capital flows, and prompted a big-picture reassessment under the rubric “international financial architecture.” This included most famously the sovereign bankruptcy proposals discussed elsewhere in this volume.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, East Asia, Brazil, South America, Latin America, and Mexico
1970. What Bond Markets Can Learn from Argentina
- Author:
- Anna Gelpern
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Argentina has completed the largest and most complex sovereign bond restructuring in history. Before the debt exchange, it owed about $82 billion in principal and $20 billion in past due interest. Hundreds of thousands of creditors held 150 kinds of defaulted instruments issued in six currencies under the laws of eight jurisdictions. Creditors owed just over 76% of the total, or $62 billion, got $35 billion in new performing bonds. Other performing debt includes $40 billion in domestic and about $30 billion in multi-lateral obligations. Argentina left behind almost $25 billion in defaulted principal and interest.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
1971. Reflections
- Author:
- Edwin M. Truman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- My reflections on the new operating procedures that were adopted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on October 6, 1979, derive from my responsibilities at the Federal Reserve Board at the time. Those responsibilities included preparation of the international component of the staff forecast, analysis of economic and financial developments in other countries, and assisting the Chairman and members of the Board (primarily Henry C. Wallich) with international responsibilities in connection with their attendance at international meetings. Therefore, mine was and is an international perspective. I was not involved in the design of the new operating procedures, although I was informed that the project was under way.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States
1972. A Revived Bretton Woods System? Implications for Europe and the United States
- Author:
- Edwin M. Truman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This note addresses three topics: (1) Do the recent musings by Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber (DFG), in particular their argument that the world is operating under a revived Bretton Woods system (BW2), provide a useful framework for thinking about international economic and financial developments and prospects? (2) What does the DFG framework imply for the euro area, and are those implications reasonable? (3) What does the DFG framework imply for the United States, and are those implications reasonable?
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
1973. Breaking Up Is Hard To Do: Global Co-dependency, Collective Action, and the Challenges of Global Adjustment
- Author:
- Catherine L. Mann
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Global imbalances have continued, indeed deepened, far longer than both researchers and pundits would have thought. On the US side, the current account deficit at about $630 billion (2004q1-3, AR) and 5.5 percent of GDP (2004q3) falls outside the oft-quoted range of 4-5 percent after which, research on industrial countries suggests, economic forces tend to narrow the imbalance. There is some-what less research on the persistence of global imbalances from the standpoint of the rest of the world, in part because individually most of those imbalances are not so notable. Clearly though, collectively growth in the rest of the world has come to be co-dependent on US demand patterns.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1974. Special Education and the Risk of Becoming Less Educated in Germany and the United States
- Author:
- Justin J.W. Powell
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Over the twentieth century, a growing group of students has been transferred into considerably expanded special education systems. These programs serve children with diagnosed impairments and disabilities and students with a variety of learning difficulties. Children and youth “with special educational needs” constitute a heterogeneous group with social, ethnic, linguistic, and physical disadvantages. An increasingly large percentage of those students at risk of leaving school without credentials participate in special education, a highly legitimated low status (and stigmatizing) school form. While most countries commit themselves to school integration or inclusive education to replace segregated schools and separate classes, cross-national and regional comparisons of special education's diverse student bodies show considerable disparities in their (1) rates of classification, (2) provided learning opportunities, and (3) educational attainments. Analyzing special education demographics and organizational structures indicates which children and youth are most likely to grow up less educated and how educational systems distribute educational success and failure. Findings from a German-American comparison show that which students bear the greatest risk of becoming less educated depends largely on definitions of “special educational needs” and the institutionalization of special education systems.
- Topic:
- Development and Education
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Germany
1975. Political Reform
- Author:
- Robert H. Bates
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In the last decade of the 20th Century, Africa joined the Third Wave of Democratization. Military regimes gave way to civilian governments, and no- and single-party systems to competitive political systems. The paper describes this transition; presents and evaluates two of the major explanations of it; and examines its impact on the policy choices of Africa’s governments. While reform made governments more accountable, it concludes, it may well have created incentives for them to adopt policies that destabilize the macro-economy.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Political Economy, Institutions, and Macroeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1976. Political Insecurity and State Failure in Contemporary Africa
- Author:
- Robert H. Bates
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Noting data that suggests that Africa oversupplies state failure, the paper probes the sources of political insecurity in the continent. It explores the logic that underlies an equilibrium in which governments employ force to protect rather than to predate and in which citizens engage in productive activity and refrain from military activity. It isolates the variables that define the region in which this conduct is in equilibrium values that lie outside that region define the conditions under which states fail. The analysis illuminates the impact of political and economic forces in contemporary Africa: political reform, economic collapse, and the increased relative importance of “loot-able” resources. In an effort to evaluate the arguments of the paper, it provides as well a series of statistical tests of its arguments.
- Topic:
- Development, Political Economy, Conflict, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1977. A Half-Century of Development
- Author:
- Richard N. Cooper
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Development as a global policy objective dates from the 1940s. Relative to expectations then, the world economy performed outstandingly well during the second half of the 20th century. Worldwide growth in average per capita income exceeded two percent a year (historically unprecedented), many poor countries became rich, infant mortality declined, diets improved, longevity increased, diseases were contained if not vanquished. Poverty on the World Bank definition of $1 a day (in 1985$) declined dramatically, and the number of persons in poverty was halved despite a more than doubling of the world population. Variations occurred over time and space, with rapid growth being concentrated in Europe and Japan early in the period, then moving to east Asia, southeast Asia, and south Asia. Growth in the 1950s and especially the 1960s exceeded that in later decades. Examples of high growth could be found in every continent, but on average sub-Saharan Africa fared much less well than other regions. Declines in national per capita income were rare, and concentrated in Africa. Civil disorder was a common but not the universal cause of low growth. Median world income gained relative to the well-off, but both spurted ahead of the poorest. World exports grew more rapidly than output, often leading the way. Many countries gradually shifted their exports from primary products to labor-intensive manufactured goods, and as development proceeded to more sophisticated manufactures and services. The fraction of the labor force devoted to agriculture declined significantly. One country after another achieved social stability, created the right incentives for effort and risk-taking, and engaged constructively with the world economy, which facilitated economic growth. Those that lagged failed to meet one or more of these conditions. Civil and political liberties also spread during this period, although less certainly and less securely. On the whole, it was a good half century for mankind. The substantial poverty and misery that still exists should not lead to neglect or even denial of these achievements.
- Topic:
- Development, Inequality, Economy, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Japan, Europe, and Asia
1978. Science for Global Sustainability: Toward a New Paradigm
- Author:
- William C. Clark, Paul J. Crutzen, and Hans J. Schellnhuber
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper provides a context for the Dahlem Workshop on “Earth System Analysis for Sustainability.” The authors begin by characterizing the contemporary epoch of Earth history in which humanity has emerged as a major—and uniquely self-reflexive—geological force. They turn next to the extraordinary revolution in our understanding of the Earth system that is now underway, pointing out how it has built on and qualitatively extended the approaches that have served science and society so well since the first Copernican revolution. The authors then discuss the novel challenges posed by the urgent need to harness science and other forms of knowledge in promoting a worldwide sustainability transition that enhances human prosperity while protecting the Earth’s life-support systems and reducing hunger and poverty. Finally, the authors provide an overview of how the contributions to this Dahlem Workshop addressed the themes and challenges outlined in this introductory chapter.
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, Science and Technology, Institutions, Sustainability, Resilience, and Integrated Systems
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1979. To aid or not to aid: Foreign aid and producity in cross-country regressions
- Author:
- Pablo Selaya
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
- Abstract:
- The paper reexamines empirically the robustness of competing theories of foreign aid e§ectiveness. By shifting the focus from the e§ects of aid on income to to e§ects of aid on productivity, it is possible to put to test 3 existing theories of foreign aid e§ectiveness. The results provide support for the hypotheses that (i) aid has a positive e§ect in fostering growth of average productivity, (ii) aid doesnít operate with diminishing returns, and (iii) the magnitude of the total e§ect depends on climate-related circumstances. The results support the policy recommendation previously made in the literature to seriously reconsider the conditionality rule for foreign aid disbursements.
- Topic:
- Development, Foreign Aid, Productivity, and Income
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1980. What Makes a Difference in Achieving Higher Labor Productivity? The Case of Low-Income Countries in Latin America
- Author:
- Osvaldo Nina
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
- Abstract:
- This paper uses firm level surveys from Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua to estimate the determinants of labor productivity. This study started out with the hypothesis that the adverse external business conditions that firms in poor Latin American countries face, may be an important explication of the generally low levels of productivity. However, the empirical results, based on the survey of more than 1300 businesses, do not confirm this hypothesis. Compared to all the variables that are under the firms control, such as capital intensity, energy use, and worker skills, the external business environment (macroeconomic instability and labor regulations) has very little impact on productivity.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Labor Issues, Productivity, and Income
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, and Ecuador
1981. Financial Sector Reform in India: Is There a Grand Design?
- Author:
- Rajrishi Singhal
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for the Advanced Study of India
- Abstract:
- The Planning Commission of India, in its Approach Paper for the Tenth Five-Year Plan (2002- 07), set its sights on two lofty targets: doubling per capita income over the next 10 years—compared to similar goals over 20 years as was previously the norm—and reducing the incidence of poverty by five percentage points.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
1982. The mysteries of Vietnamese "socialist democracy". Evolution of the people's assemblies and of the legal system since the launch of the Dôi moi
- Author:
- Matthieu Salomon
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- Since the 1980s – and, more symbolically, since the 6th Communist party Congress - Vietnam has been engaged in reform, which is referred to as "dôi moi", i.e. renewal. While their aim is, first and foremost, to change the rules governing economic activity, these reforms have, since the 1990s, also been associated with political, institutional and legal change. Influenced, on the one hand, by endogenous constraints arising out of the necessary adaptation of the politico-legal environment and of the evolution of the power-legitimation processes and, on the other hand, by exogenous constraints born of the desire for integration into the international community and economy, the discourse of the Vietnamese authorities and the country's fundamental political texts have both been modified. It seems undeniable that, despite its weightiness and areas of permanence, the Vietnamese politico-legal system is, de facto, slowly evolving and becoming "normalised". The intention here is not to suggest that Vietnam is undergoing a "democratic transition" bringing it closer to a western model of reference. The aim of the regime may be defined thus: "to consolidate the single-party system while satisfying the demands for modernisation". By means of an analysis of the system of people's assemblies elected by the population and of the legal - i.e. juridical and judicial - system, this study attempts to provide an insight into the regime's capacity for politico-legal innovation and, notably, into its capacity to structure new arenas for debate. It examines the complex evolutions which have affected the rules and players of this too-often-neglected aspect of a changing Vietnam.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
1983. CERI: The socio-political effects of forced migrations linked tomajor hydraulic projects in China. The example of the Three Gorges dam.
- Author:
- Florence Padovani
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- The study of the population movements caused by the major Chinese hydraulic projects reveals the true extent of the change which has come about in relations between the State and society in China. The construction of the Three Gorges dam-which led to considerable controversy both within China and beyond - is a prime case in point.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
1984. CERI: Religion and Politics in Greece: The Greek Church's 'Conservative Modernization' in the 1990s
- Author:
- Anastassios Anastassiadis
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- This article addresses the sensitive question of Church-State relations in Greece. Recent studies have suggested that the Greek Church's discourse was plainly incompatible with modern conceptions of liberal democracy. Populism and nationalism have been the two theoretical concepts used in relation with the Church. Discourse analysis based on public declarations of Church officials has been the main methodological tool. The Greek identity cards' crisis of the nineties has been its testing ground. Through an analysis of this "crisis" this article intends to show that these methods can offer only very limited perspectives of understanding the process for two main reasons. First, they show little interest for sociological analysis and especially for the internal functioning of the Church. Second, discourses are one outcome of the actors' strategies but have to be deciphered and not taken for granted. Analysts disregard one of the main presuppositions of semantics theory: discourses are produced within a specific socio-historical context and according to certain prefabricated schemes. This dual pattern of production allows for continuity as well as for change. Thus, this article also argues that a Church's conservative discourse may be closely related to the efforts of certain actors within this institution to renovate it. While refuting the "clash of civilizations" thesis, this article finally intends to suggest that the renewed interest for religion in general and orthodoxy in particular due to this thesis should be put to use by researchers in order to acquire new and more comprehensive socio-historical accounts of the Greek Church.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
1985. Providing Security for People: Enhancing Security through Police, Justice, and Intelligence Reform in Africa
- Author:
- Jeffrey O. Isima and Chris Ferguson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
- Abstract:
- Security Sector Reform has continued to emerge as a powerful organising force among international actors dedicated to conflict prevention and poverty reduction. As the broader strands of the SSR concept are becoming increasingly recognisable and understood it will be important to emphasise that effective SSR implementation requires a balanced approach across the whole security sector.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1986. Providing Security for People: Enhancing Security through Police, Justice, and Intelligence Reform in Africa
- Author:
- Chris Ferguson and Jeffrey O. Iisma
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
- Abstract:
- Security Sector Reform has continued to emerge as a powerful organising force among international actors dedicated to conflict prevention and poverty reduction. As the broader strands of the SSR concept are becoming increasingly recognisable and understood it will be important to emphasise that effective SSR implementation requires a balanced approach across the whole security sector.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1987. Security And Development: Assessing International Policy And Practice Since The 1990s (GFN-SSR Report of the Conference)
- Author:
- Ann M. Fitz-Gerald
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
- Abstract:
- This conference launches IPA's new research program entitled 'Strengthening the Security-Development Nexus: Conflict, Peace and Development in the 21st Century'. Focusing primarily on the role of international actors in conflict prevention, conflict management and post-conflict reconstruction, the conference aims to: a) examine advances that have been made in linking the UN's Agendas for Peace and for Development in the 1990s; b) highlight the challenges faced by the security and development communities in moving towards a shared 'peacebuilding' agenda; c) identify the difficult political, institutional, operational and policy challenges facing practitioners, policymakers and researchers in the changed international environment of the early 21st century. The conference will seek to integrate gender considerations into each of its substantive panels.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil Society, Development, Peace Studies, and United Nations
1988. Meeting for Selection of an Interim Steering Committee for the African Network of Networks on Security Matters
- Author:
- Chris Ferguson and Anicia Lala
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
- Abstract:
- In proceeding with the recommendations of the declaration that emerged from the Mozambique Security Network Symposium (SNS) held in July 2003, a meeting to discuss the creation of an African network of networks on security matters took place. This event took place under the aegis of the Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform (GFN-SSR) and African Security Dialogue Research (ASDR) who kindly offered to host it in conjunction with the earlier work shop on Security Sector Governance (SSG) in Africa and the subsequent 3rd Advisory Group Meeting of the GFN-SSR.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1989. Policy Learning, Policy Diffusion and the Making of a New Order
- Author:
- Covadonga Meseguer
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- This chapter surveys the role of learning as mechanism of policy diffusion in the context of the creation of a new political order. I discuss policy learning against the background of recent research on the diffusion of deregulatory and regulatory policies, and attempt to distinguish learning from other mechanisms of diffusion. I then survey the challenges entailed in testing this mechanism and set out my particular approach: a rational version of learning. I also report the results of preliminary efforts to test learning as applied to the diffusion of regulatory policies. I conclude that learning cannot be rejected as a plausible mechanism of the diffusion of policies, although it shares its explanatory role with less rational mechanisms of diffusion, in particular policy emulation. Further research and analysis is needed to test learning in either its rational or its bounded version, and in doing so to delve into the politics of learning.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and Politics
1990. Elementos de una aproximación interpretativa a las ciencias sociales
- Author:
- Farid Kahhat
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- Statesmen address security concerns based on their understanding of the issues at stake. Such a truism becomes problematic, though, once we realize that no fact or event does inherently pose a threat to a state's security. Threats can only be identified by silhouetting them against the background of an interpretive framework: only after we know what could count as a security threat can we recognize certain facts or events as particular instances of that general phenomena. Therefore, different frameworks of interpretation will elicit different meanings from the same facts and events, and suggest different courses of action in response to them.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
1991. Las relaciones económicas internacionales de México hacia el siglo XXI: retos y oportunidades. Reporte.
- Author:
- Antonio Ortiz Mena L.N. and Ninfa Fuentes
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- On December 2002, the Division of International Studies (DEI) at the Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE) organized the forum “The International Economic Relations of Mexico: Challenges and Opportunities” with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. The forum approached the international economic relationships of Mexico, from the regional and multilateral perspectives. The objective of the forum and of this document is to evaluate the relationships that Mexico maintains with each one of the regions and countries approached in the forum, highlighting the challenges and the opportunities that each one of them presents. We live an opportune moment to design a prospective and coherent vision of the international economic relationships of Mexico in the XXI Century among government's organs in order to avoid arriving to a point in which Mexico would have a reduced maneuver margin. The participants who took part in the forum and a list of acronyms are included at the beginning of the document. The conference agenda can be found as well. This document intends to reproduce the essence of the forum discussions and the participants' presentations. It is our intention to reflect in a clear and honest manner the participants' statements in this paper. Any lack of precision is not intentional and is exclusively our responsibility.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Central America and Mexico
1992. La política exterior de las entidades federativas: un estudio comparado
- Author:
- Jorge A. Schiavon
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- This working paper analyses the causes of the increased international activity of federated states' units, and the way and intensity in which this activity takes place. First, it explains that the growing participation of federal entities in foreign policy is a product, on one hand, of increasing globalization and interdependence in the international system, and, on the other, of the internal processes of liberalization, democratization, and decentralization. Second, using the Mexican case as an example, it explains how the legal rules in the Constitution establish the limits of international participation of the states of the federation; then, it analyses how the institutional configuration, the division of power, and the division of purpose in the system influence the degree of intensity of participation of these federal units in foreign policy issues, within the constitutional limitations. Likewise, it considers economic capacity and geographical location of the states as variables that also seem to influence their degree of activity. Then, it briefly explores how Mexican federal entities have participated in the internacional arena. Finally, it describes the relationships, in terms of foreign policy, between different orders of government in other federal systems, such as Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Switzerland, and the United States, and contrasts these relationships with those in Mexico.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, Germany, Australia, Switzerland, and Mexico
1993. Reforma estructural e integración regional en las Américas.
- Author:
- Jorge A. Schiavon and Ninfa Fuentes
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- The structural reform and regional integration programs contribute to the economic development of the countries of the Western Hemisphere. In the last decade, several efforts of regional integration have taken place in the region. However, their success or failure is related, to a great extent, to the degree of structural reform implemented, due to the fact that the latter provides a common ground to launch the regional integration process. Thus, the central question of this research is: what is the impact of the structural reform process in the implementation of regional integration in the Americas?
- Topic:
- Development and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- South America and Central America
1994. El Islamismo como teoría política y de relaciones internacionales.
- Author:
- José Alberto Moreno
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- The Islamism is the sum of theories and religious doctrines who fought for a harsh Quoranic interpretation and Shari'a (Islamic Law) applying, with the aim to transform the society to an idealistic return of the prophet Muhammad's time and manners. The present paper has a double objective: diffuse the main arguments of some scholars from this political thought and categorized the Islamism through intellectual periods and religious schools (Sunnism and Shiism).
- Topic:
- Development, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Religion
1995. Transfrontier Cooperation in the North-West of Russia: 21st Century
- Author:
- Vladlena V. Eliseeva
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- This study has been prepared in conjunction with the Transfrontier Cooperation Do- nor Forum held in St. Petersburg on April 25, 2003 under the EastWest Instituteís Regional and Transfrontier Cooperation (RTFC) Program. EWI has over ten years of experience in transfrontier cooperation in various regions of Europe. Long before issues surrounding the upcoming EU enlargement were a top priority on the EU-Russia agenda, EWIís RTFC Program was researching and assessing the impact of enlargement on the Baltic Sea Region in general, and on the Kaliningrad Region (EWIís priority area in the North-West of Russia) in particular. Today, in view of the upcoming European Union enlargement, transfrontier cooperation (TFC) has assumed an increasing importance for the future of a larger Europe.
- Topic:
- Development and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
1996. Carry on Killing: Global Governance, Humanitarianism and Terror
- Author:
- Mark Duffield
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- In this working paper, Mark Duffield analyses the new security-development terrain in terms of theoretical and historical relations between sovereignty and governance, between hard and soft forms of power. His focus is on the structure and functions of global governance and the current crisis of the non-governmental humanitarian organizations whose relations to sovereignty have become evermore exposed as humanitarian interventions have been substituted by operations for regime change in the global "borderlands".
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Globalization, and Terrorism
1997. The Logic of Piloting and Trans-Border Regionalism: The Project-Oriented Approach in EU-Russian Cooperation
- Author:
- Andrey Makarychev and Sergei Prozorov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- This paper addresses the impact of innovative developments in Russian policy-making discourse during the Putin presidency on the transformation of conflict issues in EU-Russian relations. The increasing recourse of Russian policy-makers in the border regions to the so-called 'projectoriented approach', which has an affinity to the modality of policy-making espoused by the EU programmes in Russia, has important consequences for conflictual dispositions in EU-Russian trans-border relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Development
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
1998. Privatisation of Conflict, Security and War
- Author:
- Bjørn Moller
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The paper assesses the general trend towards privatisation, in the developed as well as the developing world, where even "high politics" is increasingly performed by, or outsourced to, non-state actors. This is both the case for foreign and security politics, including war, where the use by states (as principals) of agents such as guerrilla movements, militias and private military companies (PMCs) is becoming more frequent. The special case of PMCs is analysed at length, coming out in favour of a combined legalisation and regulation, which is found to open up opportunities for military missions such as humanitarian interventions, not least in Africa, which would otherwise not be undertaken.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, and Development
1999. Opportunities and Pitfalls in the Migration-Development Nexus: Somaliland and Beyond
- Author:
- Ninna Nyberg Sorensen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Against the background of increased human mobility over the last three decades, resurgent interest in the migration-development nexus has stimulated new lines of academic inquiry and pushed policy considerations in new directions. This paper outlines current discussions around the links between migration, development and conflict. It also considers the complex nature of 'mixed flows', the difficulties in distinguishing between forced/political and voluntary/economic migration, and the links to development from these various–and often overlapping–types of flows. The paper uses migration from Somalia/Somaliland as the main example. This case–like the cases of most other sending countries–is of course specific. Still lessons can be drawn that are useful in other contexts, and may provide a basis for constructive discussion of potential opportunities in the current migration and international cooperation regimes.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- Africa
2000. Access to ARV Treatment - Aid, Trade and Governance in Uganda
- Author:
- Lisa Ann Richey and Stine Jessen Haakonsson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Access to antiretroviral medicines (ARVs) for AIDS treatment creates a field binding local and global governance. Local modalities of AIDS treatment are governed by the context of global trade through the implementation of patents on medicines in the World Trade Organisation (WTO), and within the context of global aid through development assistance. While industrialized countries, on the one hand, set aside donations to fight AIDS in developing countries, on the other hand, the same countries use the WTO to prevent developing countries from accessing cheap medicines. Uganda's success in reducing HIV prevalence is unique among African states, and it is considered the most promising candidate for effectively "scaling up" ARV treatment on the basis of its history of dealing with the pandemic. Yet, despite the many interventions addressing HIV/AIDS and dramatic price reductions of ARVs, only a minority of the infected population is currently receiving treatment, and promises of universal coverage for all who need it seem unrealistic. Our paper examines how the disconnect between international and national priorities on the one hand, and between aid and trade on the other, are currently affecting access to ARVs in Uganda. In spite of the political discourse of equality in treatment, the realities of funding suggest the difficult choices will be made from the level of policy to that of individual. Thus, global governance of trade and of aid will both shape and rely on individuals in charge of "implementation" which must be examined outside the sanitizing context of development discourse. We introduce our use of governance in this paper, and then discuss the global governance of aid to AIDS and global governance of trade and AIDS. The second half of the paper examines the Ugandan case study beginning with a political background and examination of aids policy, followed by the history of ARV provision and advocacy for ARVs, a discussion of the national health system and then aid initiatives and trade of ARVs in Uganda. Finally, we draw preliminary conclusions from our case on the conflicts between global and local governance of trade and aid to AIDS.
- Topic:
- Development, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa