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1802. Decentralisation and Poverty Reduction: A Conceptual Framework for the Economic Impact
- Author:
- Susan Steiner
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper contributes to providing insights into the impact of decentralisation on poverty. It starts out with an overview of which role decentralisation plays in strategies and policies for poverty eradication and derives economic and political impact channels. It concentrates on the economic channel, the reasoning of which is rooted in fiscal federalism theory. It shows that decentralisation cannot only influence poverty by assigning expenditure responsibility to lower levels of government but also by assigning tax-raising power, which has so far been neglected by the literature. The paper concludes by pointing out a number of possible risks for realising the poverty-reducing potential of decentralisation.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
1803. The Spread of Innovations through Social Learning
- Author:
- H. Peyton Young
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Innovations often spread by the communication of information among potential adopters. In the marketing literature, the standard model of new product diffusion is generated by information contagion: agents adopt once they hear about the existence of the product from someone else. In social learning models, by contrast, an agent adopts only when the perceived advantage of the innovation--”as revealed by the actions and experience of prior adopters--”exceeds a threshold determined by the agent's prior beliefs. We demonstrate that learning with heterogeneous priors generates adoption curves that have an analytically tractable, closed-form solution. Moreover there is a simple statistical test that discriminates between this type of process and a contagion model. Applied to Griliches' classic results on the adoption of hybrid corn, this test shows that learning with heterogeneous priors does a considerably better job of explaining the data than does the contagion model.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Demographics, Development, and Education
1804. A New Federal Contribution to the District of Columbia? The Need, Likely Impact, and Some Options
- Author:
- Ed Lazere and David Garrison
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- A 2003 report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that the District of Columbia faces a large structural budget imbalance—that is, a persistent gap between its ability to raise revenues and the cost of providing basic services. DC's imbalance stems largely from its being a "city without a state" and from revenue limitations caused by the federal presence. The most logical solution to this problem would be an annual contribution from the federal government to help address the challenges that arise from DC's unique status as the nation's capital.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Colombia
1805. The Private Sector in the Fight Against Global Poverty
- Author:
- Lael Brainard
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- In recent weeks, aging rockers have reclaimed young fans by joining movie stars, faith-based groups, and leaders of developing nations in a global campaign to "Make Poverty History." World leaders have taken note: the push is on for a massive boost in official assistance flows and the cancellation of official debt. But as preparations move forward for the first heads of state stocktaking of the Millennium Development Goals at the United Nations in September, scant attention is being directed at the most powerful engine of growth and poverty alleviation: the private sector. This despite the fact that the past two decades have witnessed an enormous shift in resources away from the public sector to private hands, and private flows to developing countries are now more than twice the level of public flows.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- United Nations
1806. Moving Toward Smarter Aid
- Author:
- Lex Rieffel and James W. Fox
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) is seriously wounded. Unveiled by President Bush in March 2002 as a promising new bilateral aid instrument for tackling global poverty, the most prominent sign of the MCC's distress was the mid-summer resignation of Paul Applegarth, its first CEO. More disturbing are the cuts imposed by the Congressional committees marking up next year's budget.
- Topic:
- Debt, Development, International Cooperation, and Poverty
1807. Deficits, Interest Rates, and the User Cost of Capital: A Reconsideration of the Effects of Tax Policy on Investment
- Author:
- William G. Gale and Peter R. Orszag
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Under traditional formulations, lower capital income tax rates reduce the user cost of capital and stimulate investment. The traditional approach, however, implictly or explicitly considers a revenue-neutral reduction in capital income taxation. We extend the traditional approach by considering a reduction in taxes that generates an increase in the budget deficit; the expanded budget deficit raises interest rates and the opportunity cost of investment. This provides a mechanism through which tax cuts can raise the cost of capital. Representative calculations show that, even with relatively modest interest rate effects, the net effect of making the Administration's recent tax cuts permanent or a 10-percent reduction in individual income tax rates would be to raise the user cost of capital. Thus, sustained tax cuts can raise the cost of capital and reduce investment.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
1808. The Millennium Challenge Account: Moving Toward Smarter Aid
- Author:
- Lex Rieffel and James W. Fox
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) proposed by President George W. Bush in March 2002 is an important step toward smarter US assistance to low-income countries. While it cannot yet be said to represent a revolution in development assistance, it is a welcome experiment and merits substantial funding by the Congress.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- United States
1809. The "Underclass" Revisited: A Social Problem in Decline
- Author:
- Paul A. Jargowsky and Rebecca Yang
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- No single metric can capture all the dimensions of as complex a phenomenon as poverty in an affluent society. Several different empirical strategies, each with strengths and weaknesses, may all contribute to a more complete understanding of the experience of living in poverty in a modern urban setting. The standard federal measure of poverty focuses narrowly on the income of families in comparison to a standard meant to reflect the cost of basic necessities (Orshansky 1963, 1965). The concentration of poverty adds a geographic component, by gauging the extent to which poor families are spatially isolated (Jargowsky and Bane 1991; Jargowsky 1997, 2003). Neither of these measures, however, adequately conveys the extent of social disorganization in poor neighborhoods that has figured so prominently in the political debates over public policies that address poverty and urban development.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Economics, and Poverty
1810. WTO Dispute Settlement and the Missing Developing Country Cases: Engaging the Private Sector
- Author:
- Chad P. Bown and Bernard M. Hoekman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The poorest WTO member countries almost universally fail to engage as either complainants or interested third parties in formal dispute settlement activity related to their market access interests. This paper focuses on costs of the WTO's extended litigation process as an explanation for the potential but "missing" developing country engagement. We provide a positive examination of the current system, and we catalogue and analyze a set of proposals encouraging the private sector to provide DSU-specific legal assistance to poor countries. We investigate the role of legal service centres, non-governmental organizations, development organizations, international trade litigators, economists, consumer organizations, and even law schools to provide poor countries with the missing services needed at critical stages of the WTO's extended litigation process. In the absence of systemic rules reform, the public-private partnership model imposes a substantial cooperation burden on such groups as they organize export interests, estimate the size of improved market access payoffs, prioritize across potential cases, engage domestic governments, prepare legal briefs, assist in evidentiary discovery, and pursue the public relations effort required to induce foreign political compliance.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Third World
1811. Restoring Fiscal Sanity 2005: Meeting the Long-Run Challenge
- Author:
- Alice M. Rivlin and Isabel B. Sawhill
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Sometimes good news poses hard choices. Over the next several decades Americans will be forced to make difficult decisions necessitated by the good news that people are living longer and that medical care has become far more effective (albeit more expensive) than ever in history. These choices will require adjustments by almost everyone—families, communities, employers, and older people themselves—but they will be most starkly evident in the federal budget.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Government, and Human Welfare
1812. Global Health and Global Governance: Prioritizing Health within the Framework of the Millennium Development Goals
- Author:
- Colin I. Bradford
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Global health conditions are in a state of crisis. Not only are poor health conditions in poor countries ravaging lives and restraining development, but the HIV/AIDS pandemic is threatening to undermine progress on all other fronts in developing countries and menacing the sense of health security in industrial countries.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Human Welfare, and Politics
1813. Why Did the Poorest Countries Fail to Catch Up?
- Author:
- Branko Milanovic
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- DURING THE PAST TWENTY YEARS, THE POOREST COUNTRIES of the world have fallen further behind the middle-income and rich countries. The median per capita growth of the poorest countries was zero. This is an unexpected outcome because, from the perspective of economic theory, both globalization and economic-policy convergence imply that poor countries should grow faster than the rich. The main reasons why this has not happened lie in poor countries' much greater likelihood of being involved in wars and civil conflicts. This factor alone accounts for an income loss of about 40 percent over twenty years. Slower reforms in poor countries compared with faster reforms in middle-income countries played some, albeit a minimal, role. Increased flows from multilateral lenders did not help either because the net effect of the flows on growth rates is estimated to have been zero. Finally, neither democratization nor better educational attainment of the population can be shown to have had any notable positive impact on poor countries' growth. Reducing the prevalence of conflict seems to be the first and most important step toward restoring growth.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Globalization, Poverty, and Third World
1814. Cambodia Blazes A New Path To Economic Growth and Job Creation
- Author:
- Sandra Polaski
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- A UNIQUE AND SUCCESSFUL INTERNATIONAL POLICY EXPERIMENT has been under way in Cambodia for the last six years. In the country's export apparel factories, working conditions and labor rights are monitored by inspectors from the International Labor Organization (ILO), an international public organization. The results of the inspections are published in credible, highly transparent reports that describe in detail whether the factories are in compliance with national labor laws and internationally agreed basic labor rights. These reports are published on the Internet, and a range of Cambodian and international actors use them. The U.S. government uses the reports as a key input for decisions under an innovative scheme that allows Cambodian firms to sell more apparel in the U.S. market if they improve working conditions and respect workers' rights. Private retail apparel firms that buy from Cambodian factories also use the reports. These buyers, conscious of their brand reputations, use the reliable information they find in the reports to steer orders toward compliant factories and away from noncompliant ones.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia
1815. Evaluating Palestinian Reform
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- IN PALESTINE, CITIZENS HAVE RIGHTS OF FREE SPEECH and free assembly. The most independent judiciary in the Arab world adjudicates their disputes. Palestinians select their leaders freely in competitive elections overseen by an independent electoral commission. A representative assembly monitors the executive, granting and withholding confidence from ministers and reviewing the state budget in detailed public discussions. Elected councils manage local governments that are fiscally autonomous of the center.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia
1816. Lessons Not Learned: Problems with Western Aid for Law Reform in Postcommunist Countries
- Author:
- Wade Channell
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL IN 1989 and the subsequent breakup of the Soviet Union presented an unparalleled opportunity for fundamental political and economic change in more than two dozen countries. As postcommunist countries sought to attain the economic development of their Western neighbors, it became clear that the existing framework of laws and institutions would not support the desired growth. Reformers and development experts soon identified a panoply of gaps and shortcomings in financial resources, human resources, and organizational capacity, all of which appeared ripe for outside assistance.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
1817. Judicial Reform in China: Lessons from Shanghai
- Author:
- Veron Mei-Ying Hung
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The George W. Bush administration in September 2002 laid out in the “National Security Strategy of the United States” its strategy toward China: “We welcome the emergence of a strong, peaceful, and prosperous China.” During a trip to Asia in March 2005, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice adopted a similar phrase to welcome “the rise of a confident, peaceful, and prosperous China.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Shanghai, and Asia
1818. Evaluating Middle East Reform: How Do We Know When It Is Significant?
- Author:
- Marina S. Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- This short paper launches the second set of studies in the Carnegie Papers Middle East Series. The first set, now also published as a book under the title Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, examined the most important issues concerning democracy promotion and democratic change in the Middle East. One of the conclusions that emerged from those studies is that the Middle East still offers a rather discouraging political picture. There are some liberalized autocracies but no democratic countries in the region. The link between economic and political reform remains weak. Democratic reformers have failed to build strong constituencies, and the organizations with strong constituencies are Islamist rather than democratic. The integration of Islamists in the reform process remains poor. And the United States, now championing democracy in the region, has little credibility in Arab eyes, and still has not consistently integrated democracy promotion in its policy toward the area. Yet, despite all these problems, it is becoming increasingly clear that there is a ferment of reform in the Middle East. But how significant is it?
- Topic:
- Development, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
1819. Vladimir Putin and Russia's Oil Policy
- Author:
- Martha Brill Olcott
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The honeymoon between the Western oil industry and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended in mid-2003 when the Russian procurator's office began arresting Yukos executives. The Kremlin's seemingly sudden attack on private industry surprised the international business community that was expecting investment-friendly behavior from the Russian leadership. After assuming power in late 1999, Putin quickly signaled interest in developing a strong energy partnership with the United States, including increased opportunities for Western firms to invest in Russia's oil and gas industry.
- Topic:
- Development, Energy Policy, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
1820. Competing Definitions of the Rule of Law: Implications for Practitioners
- Author:
- Rachel Kleinfeld Belton
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Definitions of the rule of law fall into two categories: (1) those that emphasize the ends that the rule of law is intended to serve within society (such as upholding law and order, or providing predictable and efficient judgments), and (2) those that highlight the institutional attributes believed necessary to actuate the rule of law (such as comprehensive laws, well-functioning courts, and trained law enforcement agencies). For practical and historical reasons, legal scholars and philosophers have favored the first type of definition. Practitioners of rule-of-law development programs tend to use the second type of definition. This paper analyzes the challenge of effectively defining the rule of law, through an examination of both types of definitions, the historical background of each, and the implications of each for rule-of-law development efforts.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, International Law, and Politics
1821. CATO Institute: The Personal Lockbox: A First Step on the Road to Social Security Reform
- Author:
- Michael Tanner
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- With President Bush's call for comprehensive Social Security reform bogged down in the morass of partisan politics, many reform advocates have suggested starting the process with smaller steps. Recently, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Rep. Jim McCrery (R-LA), Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), Rep. Sam Johnson (R-TX), and others have proposed legislation to rebate Social Security surpluses to workers in the form of contributions to personal accounts.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1822. CATO Institute: Options for Tax Reform
- Author:
- Chris Edwards
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- President Bush has established an advisory panel to study federal tax reform options. The panel is headed by former senators Connie Mack of Florida and John Breaux of Louisiana. Congressional leaders, including House Speaker Dennis Hastert and Majority Leader Tom Delay, have also pledged their support for reform.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Florida, and Louisiana
1823. CATO Institute: Robin Hood in Reverse: The Case against Economic Development Takings
- Author:
- Ilya Somin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The Fifth Amendment and most state constitutions prohibit government from condemning private property except for a “public use.”Traditionally, that has forbidden most condemnations that transfer property from one private owner to another.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
1824. CATO Institute: Peer-to-Peer Networking and Digital Rights Management: How Market Tools Can Solve Copyright Problems
- Author:
- Michael A. Einhorn and Bill Rosenblatt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The term “peer to peer” (P2P) refers generally to software that enables a computer to locate a content file on another networked device and copy the encoded data to its own hard drive. P2P technology often attracts people who use it to reproduce or distribute copyrighted music and movies without authorization of rights owners. For that reason, the short history of P2P technology has been one of constant controversy and calls by many in the content industry to regulate or even ban P2P-based networks or software.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
1825. CATO Institute: Who Killed Telecom? Why the Official Story Is Wrong
- Author:
- Lawrence Gasman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- In the mid-1990s as it seemed that lawmakers were about to abandon much of the regulatory apparatus that had hampered the telecommunications industry since the 1930s, the telecom equipment industry began to boom, helped in part by the rise of the Internet. The deregulatory trend led ultimately to the 1996 Telecom Act, and soon the architects and implementers of that act were congratulating themselves on a job well done. We were supposedly building a new telecom infrastructure fit for the information age.
- Topic:
- Development, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
1826. Nepal's Maoists: Their Aims, Structure and Strategy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In less than ten years, the Maoist insurgency has transformed Nepal. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) has spread armed conflict across the country and reshaped its political environment irrevocably. But their political aims are still questioned, and not enough is known about their structure and strategy. This background report seeks to fill in many of the gaps, based on close study of their writings and actions and a wide range of interviews, in order to provide policymakers in Nepal and the international community with information and insights needed to approach a peace process realistically.
- Topic:
- Development and Government
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Nepal
1827. Reforming Egypt: In Search of a Strategy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Egypt's first multi-candidate presidential election, a response to U.S. pressure, was a false start for reform. Formal pluralism has never seriously limited the dominance of President Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP); extension to the presidential level is a token so long as the opposition is too weak to produce plausible candidates. If the further reforms Mubarak has promised are to be meaningful, they should be aimed at recasting state/NDP relations and, above all, enhancing parliament's powers. As a start, Mubarak should ensure free and fair November legislative elections. The legal opposition must make the case for these changes and overcome its divisions if it is to become relevant and be able to compete with the Muslim Brothers for popular influence. The U.S. and others should support judicial supervision of elections, refrain from pressing for quick, cosmetic results, and back a longer-term, genuine reform process.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, North Africa, and Egypt
1828. The AU's Mission in Darfur: Bridging the Gaps
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The international community is failing in its responsibility to protect the inhabitants of Darfur, many of whom are still dying or face indefinite displacement from their homes. New thinking and bold action are urgently needed. The consensus to support a rough doubling of the African Union (AU) force to 7,731 troops by the end of September 2005 under the existing mandate is an inadequate response to the crisis. The mandate must be strengthened to prioritise civilian protection, and a force level of at least 12,000 to 15,000 is needed urgently now, not in nearly a year as currently envisaged.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1829. Stopping Guinea's Slide
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Guinea risks becoming West Africa's next failed state. Its economy is faltering, the government has nearly ceased to provide services, and in 2004, there were isolated uprisings in at least eight towns and cities in all regions of the country. Getting it wrong in Guinea now could have disastrous consequences. Getting it right will require a greater engagement by both the Guinean population and the diplomatic and donor communities, including a focus much more on reforming institutions than on the immediate personnel issues involved in the succession to the ailing and dictatorial president, Lansana Conté.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, West Africa, and Guinea
1830. Iraq: Don't Rush the Constitution
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The next stage in Iraq's political transition, the drafting and adoption of a permanent constitution, will be critical to the country's long-term stability. Iraqis face a dilemma: rush the constitutional process and meet the current deadline of 15 August 2005 to prevent the insurgents from scoring further political points, or encourage a process that is inclusive, transparent and participatory in an effort to increase popular buy-in of the final product. While there are downsides to delay, they are far outweighed by the dangers of a hurried job that could lead to either popular rejection of or popular resignation to a text toward which they feel little sense of ownership or pride.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
1831. Sources and Effectiveness of Financial Development: What We Know and What We Need to Know
- Author:
- Panicos O. Demetriades and Svetlana Andrianova
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Drawing on recent literature, the paper argue s that institutions and political economy factors hold the key to understanding why some countries have succeeded in developing their financial systems while others have not. The paper also reviews new evidence which suggests that institutional quality may influence the effectiveness of financial development in delivering economic growth. These new findings highlight the possibility that poor countries may be stuck in a bad equilibrium, in which weak institutions inhibit growth both directly and indirectly, through under-developed, low- quality finance. In addition, the paper identifies a number of unanswered questions in the financial development literature, including the precise role of important institutions like law in finance, and the influence of geographical factors.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Political Economy, and Third World
1832. The Poverty Macroeconomic Policy Nexus: Some Short-run Analytics
- Author:
- George Mavrotas and S. Mansoob Murshed
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The present paper utilises a short-run theoretical macroeconomic model of a small open economy to look at the impact of macroeconomic policies and financial deepening upon poverty through sectoral changes. This is because an expansion in certain sectors may cause greater poverty reduction. The model involves a non-traded and a traded sector on the formal side of the economy. The former is more capital intensive and the latter more unskilled labour intensive. Increased employment in the traded sector is more pro-poor compared to a similar rise in the non-traded sector as the former draws workers out of poverty in the informal sector. The model in our paper analyses short-run effects of devaluation, a rise in the money supply induced by financial deepening, and taxation to discourage non-traded goods consumption. Financial deepening can induce greater output and reduce poverty. Other results are mixed and taxonomic. We also attempt to differentiate between the stylised experiences of East Asia and Latin America. East Asian economies have relied more heavily on labour-intensive manufactured exports, whereas Latin America has had a relatively greater share of capital intensive and natural resource based exports. In recent decades countries in these two regions have had differing experiences in poverty reduction, with poverty arguably declining more in East Asia.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- East Asia and Latin America
1833. Does Financial Openness Promote Economic Integration? Some Evidence from Europe and the CIS
- Author:
- Fabrizio Carmignani and Abdur Chowdhury
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We study whether financial openness facilitates the economic integration of formerly centrally planned economies with the EU- 15. Two dimensions of economic integration are considered: cross-country convergence of per-capita incomes and bilateral trade in goods and services. We find that more financially open economies effectively catch-up faster and trade more with the EU-15. These integration-enhancing effects occur over and above any effect stemming from domestic financial deepening and other factors determining growth and trade.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1834. The Effects of (within and with EU) Regional Integration: Impact on Real Effective Exchange Rate Volatility, Institutional Quality and Growth for MENA Countries
- Author:
- Iftekhar Hasan and Leonardo Becchetti
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We analyse two potential effects arising from regional (and with EU) integration—increased quality of institutions (including the quality of financial institutions) and, economic policies and reduced multilateral exchange rate volatility— in a conditional convergence growth framework for MENA countries. To this purpose we outline an ad hoc methodology which implements the traditional bilateral exchange rate measures to test effects of multilateral exchange rate volatility on growth of per capita GDP. Our estimates show that both factors (quality of institutions and reduction of multilateral volatility) significantly and positively affect growth and conditional convergence. We observe that MENA countries are not far from EU and OECD countries in terms of exchange rate volatility, but much below in terms of institutional quality. We finally simulate the potential effects of an improvement in institutional quality in MENA countries on their process of growth and conditional convergence. We conclude arguing that regional integration may be highly beneficial for such countries, mainly because of its effects on institutional quality.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1835. Education, Financial Institutions, Inflation and Growth
- Author:
- Iftekhar Hasan, Leonardo Becchetti, and George Mavrotas
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Our paper investigates the unexplored impact of education on inflation and of this relationship on economic growth. By using a sample of 102 countries observed on non-overlapping five-year data spells over the period 1963-2001, we find that average schooling years of the working population have a significant negative impact on inflation rates after controlling for the effects of the stance of domestic monetary policy. We also show that the negative impact of inflation on growth in conditional convergence estimates is significantly increased when the former is instrumented by educational variables. Our findings outline a third potential role of human capital on conditional convergence. They show that education is not only a production factor or a variable which may reduce demographic pressures, but also an important antidote against inflationary pressures which, in turn, negatively affect economic growth and conditional convergence. We interpret our findings by identifying three potential rationales for the education-inflation nexus: (i) education raises consumers' awareness of their power in contrasting producers' inflationary pressures; (ii) more educated individuals have lower inflationary expectations when they are also wealthier and their consumption bundle is relatively less (more) intensive in inferior (superior) goods with higher (lower) inflation potential; (iii) more (less) educated and wealthier (less wealthy) individuals tend to be net creditors (debtors) in their maturity, thereby contributing to increase (reduce) the power of anti-inflationary lobbies.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Education
1836. Financial Sector Development, Savings Mobilization and Poverty Reduction in Ghana
- Author:
- Peter Quartey
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The paper primarily investigates the interrelationship between financial sector development and poverty reduction in Ghana. This is done using time-series data from the World Development Indicators from 1970-2001. The main findings are, first, that even though financial sector development does not Granger-cause savings mobilization in Ghana, it induces poverty reduction; and second, that savings do Granger-cause poverty reduction in Ghana. Also, the effect of financial sector development on poverty reduction is positive but insignificant. This is due to the fact that financial intermediaries in Ghana have not adequately channelled savings to the pro-poor sectors of the economy because of government deficit financing, high default rate, lack of collateral and lack of proper business proposals. Another interesting finding is that there is a long-run co integration relationship between financial sector development and poverty reduction.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
1837. Financial Markets and R Investments: A Discrete-Time Model to Interpret Public Policies
- Author:
- Marco Mazzoli
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper introduces a discrete-time intertemporal investment model in which the flow of profits affects the risk premium on the cost of finance, and, as a consequence, the rate of discount of future profits. While public investments, according to a consolidated literature, constitute the main bulk of innovation policies, this model is used to comment and interpret the potential use of another, secondary, public policy, consisting of tax incentives for firms performing R expenditures and issuing securities in the stock market. Linking public policies for innovation to the stock market might help to reduce the problems of discretionality and the monitoring of public expenditure used to finance R and technical innovation.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
1838. Does Financial Liberalization Influence Saving, Investment and Economic Growth? Evidence from 25 Emerging Market Economies, 1973-96
- Author:
- Robert Lensink and Niels Hermes
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to investigate the relationship between financial liberalization on the one hand and saving, investment and economic growth on the other hand, using a new dataset for measuring financial liberalization for a sample of 25 developing economies over the period 1973-96. We find no evidence that financial liberalization affects domestic saving and total investment (although there are some signs to believe that liberalization may actually reduce rather than increase domestic saving), whereas it is positively associated with private investment, as well as with per capita GDP growth. We find a negative relationship between financial liberalization and public investment. These results suggest that financial liberalization leads to a substitution from public to private investment, which may contribute to higher economic growth.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
1839. Financial Sector Development and Productivity Growth
- Author:
- George Mavrotas and Subal C. Kumbhakar
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Recent years have witnessed important structural changes around the world as a result of the globalization process, the creation of new economic blocks and the liberalization of financial sector in many countries. Responding to these changes many sectors of the industrialized countries have gone through major deregulatory changes to acclimate themselves to new environments. At the same time, many countries have undertaken institutional reforms to build a market-orientated financial system in the hope that transition towards market economy will improve productivity. In the face of uncertainty resulting from changes in regulatory structure and the development of financial institutions to foster market economy, many countries may not be able to achieve their maximum growth potential. In other words, productivity growth is likely to depend on the development of financial institutions and the stage of economic development That is, a less developed country is likely to benefit more (in terms of output growth rate) from the development of financial institutions than a developed economy with well-developed financial system. In this paper we document this by using data covering 65 countries, varying substantially in term s of level of development and geographic location, and spanning the period 1960-1999. Empirical results obtained from the estimation of two different empirical models regarding the measurement of total factor productivity growth seem to confirm a priori expectations about the overall positive influence of financial systems on productivity in line with previous work on this front. Our results remain robust with respect to alternative definitions of financial sector development we tried.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
1840. The Tax Reform Experience of Kenya
- Author:
- Stephen Njuguna Karingi and Bernadette Wanjal
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- In evaluating tax reform in the developing countries, one first needs to determine what is the unique role of the tax system in each particular country. One of the key reasons for undertaking tax reforms in Kenya was to ad dress issues of in equality and to create a sustainable tax system that could generate adequate revenue to finance public expenditures. In this respect, the tax modernization programme introduced in the country was to achieve a tax system that was sustainable in the face of changing conditions domestically and internationally. Policy was shifted towards greater reliance on indirect taxes as opposed to direct taxes. Consumption taxes were seen to be more favourable to investments and hence growth. Trade taxes, instead of being used for protection or revenue-maximization purposes, were viewed more as instruments to foster export-led industrialization. Trade taxes were therefore used to create a competitive exports sector rather than protect the import-competing manufacturing sector, as had been done in the past.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
1841. Tax Reforms in Ghana
- Author:
- Peter Quartey and Robert Darko Osei
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Ghana's tax reforms constitute the major policy instrument needed to accelerate growth and poverty reduction. Over the past two decades, the government has consistently spent more revenue than it is able to generate and the gap is often financed with foreign aid which has perpetuated the country's aid dependency. Two options can be explored to reduce the gap between government revenue and expenditure; generate more revenue or reduce government expenditure. Although the latter sounds reasonable, the government needs to spend more on key sectors like education, health and infrastructure if the country is to significantly reduce poverty. The critical issue has been how to generate the needed resources domestically, using tax instruments that are least harmful to the poor. This will obviously involve reforming the tax system to ensure efficiency by widening the tax net without necessarily increasing the tax rate. This paper provides an assessment of the changing structure of the tax system in Ghana over the last two decades and suggests ways to improve tax administration in the country.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
1842. Consistent Testing for Poverty Dominance
- Author:
- Bram Thuysbaert and Ricardas Zitikis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- If uncertainty exists over the exact location of the poverty line or over which measure to use to compare poverty between distributions, one may want to check whether poverty dominance holds. We develop a consistent statistical test to test the null of poverty dominance against the alternative of nondominance. Dominance criteria corresponding to absolute and relative poverty measures are dealt with. The poverty line is allowed to depend on the income distribution. A bootstrap procedure is proposed to estimate critical values for the test. Our results cover both independent and paired samples.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Economics, and Poverty
1843. The Microeconomics of Inequality, Poverty and Market Liberalizing Reforms
- Author:
- Rafael E. De Hoyos
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper illustrates how the use of microeconometric techniques can be used to uncover the micro dynamics behind macro shocks. Using Mexican micro data we find out that—controlling for everything else—between 1994 and 1998 returns to personal characteristics in the tradable sector increase d particularly those of skilled labourers. By the year 2000 the positive shock upon the tradeable sector vanishes with returns to personal characteristics converging to the levels observed in the non-tradable sector. We use our model's results to simulate a scenario where the Mexican economy experienced the negative shock of the peso crises in the absence of trade liberalization (NAFTA) and find out that under such a scenario the poverty headcount ratio would have increased more than 2 percentage points above the one observed in 1996. The simulated second- order effect of these changes shows that the skill mixed changed in a way that favoured relatively skilled men and relatively unskilled women. These changes in labour participation and occupation had an overall positive income effect though adverse in distributive terms.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Central America
1844. Poverty Measurement and Theories of Beneficence
- Author:
- S. Subramanian
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This note points to certain similarities of orientation and outcome between Derek Parfit's quest for a theory of beneficence and Amartya Sen's quest for a suitable real-valued representation of poverty. It suggests th at both projects, in a certain sense, have been instructive failures. Using Sen's own work, the note also suggests a logically natural way of dealing with some of the problems in poverty measurement reviewed in it—but only to reject this way out on other compelling grounds.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Economics, and Poverty
1845. The Fiscal Effects of Aid in Ghana
- Author:
- Robert Osei, Oliver Morrissey, and Tim Lloyd
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- An important feature of aid to developing countries is that it is given to the government. As a result, aid should be expected to affect fiscal behaviour, although theory and existing evidence is ambiguous regarding the nature of these effects. This paper applies techniques developed in the 'macroeconometrics' literature to estimate the dynamic linkages between aid and fiscal aggregates. Vector autoregressive methods are applied to 34 years of annual data in Ghana to model the effect of aid on fiscal behaviour. Results suggest that aid to Ghana has been associated with reduced domestic borrowing and increased tax effort, combining to increase public spending. This constructive use of aid to maintain fiscal balance is evident since the mid-1980s, following Ghana's structural adjustment programme. The pa per provides evidence that aid has been associated with improved fiscal performance in Ghana, implying that the aid has been used sensibly (at least in fiscal terms).
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
1846. Aid and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Accounting for Transmission Mechanisms
- Author:
- Oliver Morrissey, Karuna Gomanee, and Sourafel Girma
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper is a contribution to the literature on aid and growth. Despite an extensive empirical literature in this area, existing studies have not addressed directly the mechanisms via which aid should affect growth. We identify investment as the most significant transmission mechanism, and also consider effects through financing imports and government consumption spending. With the use of residual generated regressors, we achieve a measure of the total effect of aid on growth, accounting for the effect via investment. Pooled panel results for a sample of 25 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1970 to 1997 point to a significant positive effect of foreign aid on growth, ceteris paribus. On average, each one percentage point increase in the aid/GNP ratio contributes one-quarter of one percentage point to the growth rate. Africa's poor growth record should not therefore be attributed to aid ineffectiveness.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1847. Innovative Ways of Making Aid Effective in Ghana: Tied Aid versus Direct Budgetary Support
- Author:
- Peter Quartey
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- There has been significant amount of aid inflow s to developing countries including Ghana, but these have been very volatile. Aid flows have been associated with low domestic resource mobilization and have reduced Ghana to a country heavily dependent on aid. The amount of official development assistance (ODA) inflow s has fallen in recent years and has become unpredictable. It is general knowledge that aid has not yielded the desired benefit. In an attempt to improve aid effectiveness donors have used tie d aid not just to promote commercial interests but also to target aid to particular projects that have direct links with poverty. However, this has not yielded the maximum benefits required. Recently, the government of Ghana and its development partners agreed on an aid package dubbed the multi-donor budgetary support (MDBS), which would ensure continuous flow of aid to finance the government's poverty related expenditures.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
1848. Poverty and the Welfare Costs of Risk Associated with Globalization
- Author:
- Ethan Ligon
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- 'Globalization' implies change, and uncertainty over future change may affect household welfare. We use data on Lorenz curves over the last fifty years for a sample of 53 (mostly developing) countries. Treating each country-quintile-year as an observation, we first account for variation in consumption expenditures, finding that global shocks are of less importance than country -level shocks in explaining variation in country-quintile consumption growth. While poorer households experience more rapid consumption growth than do wealthier households, they also bear much more risk. However, we find no evidence that this greater risk is related to globalization.
- Topic:
- Development, Globalization, Human Welfare, and Poverty
1849. It Works; It Doesn't; It Can, But That Depends...: 50 Years of Controversy over the Macroeconomic Impact of Development Aid
- Author:
- Mark McGillivray, Simon Feeny, Robert Lensink, and Niels Hermes
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper surveys 50 years of empirical research on the macroeconomic impact of aid, looking mainly at studies examining the link between aid and growth. It argues that studies dating until the late 1990s produced either contradictory or inconclusive results. Aid either worked, or it didn't, according to this research. The paper then highlights a major shift in the literature that coincided with the release of the World Bank's Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn't and Why. Practically all research published since that report agrees with its general finding that aid works, to the extent that in its absence growth would be lower. One controversy may therefore have been settled. Yet, we show, the report has set-off an intense de bate over the context in which aid works. That debate centres on whether the effectiveness of these inflows depends on the policy regime of recipient countries. Some possible avenues through which the heat might be taken out of this debate are considered.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Debt, Development, and Economics
1850. Explaining Threshold Effects of Globalization on Poverty: An Institutional Perspective
- Author:
- Alice Sindzingre
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The paper focuses on the non-linearity of the transmission of the impact of globalization on poverty and the existence of threshold effects. Institutions constitute a critical factor for the creation of threshold effects in the impact of globalization on poverty. Institutions—their credibility, ability to be transformed by globalization, and the ways they give the poor access to the beneficial effects of globalization—determine whether the benefits of globalization are spread to the poor or are locked in by particular groups. They also determine whether or not the negative shocks associated with globalization are transmitted in an unfettered manner. The paper presents a theory of institutions that distinguishes several components, which evolve differently and explain the threshold effects that institutions generate upon the impact of globalization on the poor. The paper then shows that social institutions and norms have a critical role in the generation of these threshold effects. It finally examines the interactions between social institutions and state policies institutions, which may contribute to the formation of poverty traps.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Globalization, and Poverty
1851. Inequality, Corruption, and Competition in the Presence of Market Imperfections
- Author:
- Indranil Dutta and Ajit Mishra
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We analyze the relation between inequality, corruption and competition in a developing economy context where markets are imperfect. We consider an economy where different types of households (efficient and inefficient) choose to undertake production activities. For production, households borrow capital from the credit market. They also incur non-input costs which they could avoid by bribing inspectors. Due to information asymmetry and wealth inequality, the credit market fails to screen out the inefficient types. In addition to the imperfect screening, the inefficient type's entry is further facilitated by corruption. We analyze the market equilibrium and look at some of the implications. We show that a rise in inequality can lead to an increase in corruption along with greater competition.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Human Welfare
1852. The Political Economy of Postwar Reconstruction in Lebanon
- Author:
- Ghassan Dibeh
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper studies the postwar economic and political reconstruction in Lebanon. The paper shows that the 'reconstruction boom' was short-lived. The economy experienced a growth trap early in the reconstruction period, and entered a cyclical crisis in 1998 which resulted from an ill-designed fiscal-monetary policy mix. The expansionary fiscal policy resulting from the high resource demands — due to economic and political reconstruction and from the needs of addressing horizontal inequality codified in the peace agreement known as the Taef Accords — led to a fiscal crisis of the state. The monetary and central bank policy was finance-biased with emphasis on financial and exchange rate stability and foreign capital inflows. Such a mix led to a real interest rate shock in the postwar period that played a role in the onset of the cyclical downturn. The finance-biased policy led to the rise of a rentier economy leading to deindustrialization during this period. The rise of a growth-impeding political economic structure resulting from the Taef Accords also played a role in intensifying the economic crisis through exerting pressures on public resources and through the engendering of a political crisis that brought to an end the era of postwar reconstruction.
- Topic:
- Development, Political Economy, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
1853. Trade Openness and Vulnerability in Central and Eastern Europe
- Author:
- Pierluigi Montalbano, Alessandro Federici, Umberto Triulzi, and Carlo Pietrobelli
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper offers a substantive contribution to the debate on the role of international trade on the development of emerging countries. The aim is to detect empirically the phenomenon of vulnerability induced by trade openness. The methodology adopts a forward-looking approach and tries to fill a missing link in the theory between trade shocks, volatility, and the wellbeing of countries, distinguishing between 'normal' and 'extreme' volatility.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
1854. Financial Sector Structure and Financial Crisis Burden: A Model Based on the Russian Default of 1998
- Author:
- George Mavrotas and Dmitri Vinogradov
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We consider an overlapping generations model with two production factors and two types of agents in the presence of financial intermediation and its application to the Russian default of August 1998. The paper focuses on the analysis of the consequences of a sudden negative repayments shock on financial intermediation capacity and consequently on the economy as a whole. The model exhibits a 'chain reaction' property, when a single macroeconomic shock can lead to the exhaustion of credit resources and to the subsequent collapse of the whole banking system. To maintain the capability of the system to recover, regulatory intervention is needed even in the presence of the state guarantees on agents' deposits in the banks (workout incentives). We compare the results for an intermediated economy with those derived under the assumption of a market economy, and draw some broad conclusions on the consequences of the crises, which are contingent on the financial sector structure.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1855. Economic Agendas in Civil Wars: What We Know, What We Need to Know
- Author:
- Heiko Nitzschke and David M. Malone
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The political economy of civil wars has acquired unprecedented scholarly and policy attention. Among others, the International Peace Academy's programme on Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (EACW) has aimed to contribute to a better understanding of the complex dynamics of civil war economies and has identified areas for policy development critical for improved conflict prevention, conflict resolution, and postconflict peacebuilding. While much of the earlier debate on the economic dimensions has been polarized around the 'greed versus grievance' dichotomy, there is now a better understanding of how economic dynamics can influence the onset, character, and duration of armed conflicts. This paper discusses key research findings and their policy relevance, provides a preliminary assessment of policy efforts to address the economic dimensions of conflict and conflict transformation, and offers some issues for further research and policy action.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Development, Economics, and Political Economy
1856. A Macro Policy for Poverty Eradication through Structural Change
- Author:
- Rehman Sobhan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper argues that poverty originates in the structural injustices of a social order which incapacitates the poor from participating in the growth generating sectors of the economy and leaves them captives in the so called informal sector, characterized by low productivity and low earning capacity. In such a system the poor remain individualized and hence disempowered which compels them to interface with the market economy on highly inequitable terms which relegates them to the lowest tiers of the value addition chain. The need for a macro-policy designed to eliminate poverty is premised on the argument that poverty originates in the structural features of society which can only be addressed at the macro-level. Policy interventions, to redesign the structural sources of poverty, bring into consideration issues of social, political as well as economic reform.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and Poverty
1857. Africa and the Challenge of Globalization
- Author:
- Jeffrey Herbst
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper provides an overview of Africa's economic performance. Although the continent appeared headed for economic success in the early days of independence, based particularly on natural resource endowments, Africa's economic growth has stagnated while the rest of the world has experienced continuous, often spectacular, growth. The countries in Africa that have had the worst performance are those that contain the majority of the population. These states, in particular, suffer most from a crisis of governance and lack the policy and legal frameworks to grow quickly. The states in Africa can be divided into six categories and each grouping faces a different set of challenges from globalization: 1) high performers ready to globalize; 2) countries on an upward trajectory; 3) large, poorly performing countries; 4) poorly performing countries; 5) countries in collapse; and 6) oil producing countries. Only the states in the first two groupings are currently able to participate in the globalized economy.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1858. The Impact of RMA on Conventional Deterrence: A Theoretical Analysis
- Author:
- Manjeet S. Pardesi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- This research aims to theoretically study if deterrence will prevail if and when states with RMA-ed militaries are faced with the prospect of conventional war. To answer this question, this study analyzes the impact of transformation on conventional deterrence in the event of a military standoff for three theoretical scenarios–(1) RMA capable conventional military vs. RMA-incapable conventional military (with the former state being nuclear or non-nuclear and with the latter being non-nuclear), (2) two RMA-capable conventional militaries (both states non-nuclear), and (3) two RMA-capable conventional militaries (both states nuclear). The study concludes that the current defense transformation is revolutionary simply because it permits the possibility of a limited conventional armed conflict between two nuclear weapons states (including great powers) and as such attempts to resuscitate the role of conventional military power in international politics. On the other hand, analogous to the nuclear revolution, the possession of RMA capabilities by two non-nuclear belligerents is likely to render large-scale conventional armed conflicts with unlimited military objectives between them unthinkable. However, this study warns that deterrence is weakened when only one state in an adversarial dyad is RMA-capable. Moreover, in any dyad involving RMA-capable states, deterrence is weakened when the RMA-capable state contemplates a strategy of limited aims (political and/or military) vis-à-vis its adversary. This tendency is all the more pronounced when it is contemplating a limited war waged with air power and missile strikes (low-cost, low-risk) than a limited war for territorial gains.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Development, and War
1859. Exploring the Emerging Social Movements in Africa at the Third African Social Forum
- Author:
- Marie Clark Brill
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- The African Social Forum was born out of the larger World Social Forum, which provides an annual open meeting place where groups and movements of civil society come together to dialogue and network towards collaborative action. The Third African Social Forum (ASF) took place in Lusaka, Zambia in mid-December 2004. This report includes notes and analysis of the African Social Forum and provides reflection s on emerging social movements in Africa.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Lusaka, and Zambia
1860. A Silent Tsunami: The Urgent Need for Clean Water and Sanitation
- Author:
- William K. Reilly and Harriet C. Babbitt
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Few issues matter more to public health, economic opportunity, and environmental integrity than the availability of clean water and sanitation. With the 4th World Water Forum scheduled for Mexico City in March 2006, the Aspen Institute and the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University conducted a multistakeholder dialogue to help highlight the importance of global water issues, suggest steps to provide services more rapidly and effectively, and to identify and draw attention to constructive ways the US government and other US participants can take part in the Forum.
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, Government, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- United States and Mexico
1861. Opening Opportunities, Building Ownership: Fulfilling the Promise of Microenterprise in the United States
- Author:
- Elaine L. Edgcomb and Joyce A. Klein
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- The notion that a person can turn a dream into a small business by applying healthy doses of ingenuity, elbow grease and grit has resonated with Americans from the earliest days of this nation. Indeed, there is something so intrinsically appealing about that scenario that more than 22 million Americans are small business owners today—including some 20 million who operate "micro"—or very small—enterprises.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Environment, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
1862. Information Technology and the New Global Economy: Tensions, Opportunities, and the Role of Public Policy
- Author:
- David Bollier
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Changes in technology have been transforming commerce, politics, and culture for centuries. Yet it is now becoming clear that the explosion of the Internet and assorted digital technologies is provoking epochal changes in the global economy. Finance capital now roams the world with unprecedented speed. Transportation and logistics have become radically more efficient. Work readily moves to wherever it can be most skillfully and cheaply performed. Innovation and productivity are forging ahead, sometimes at blinding speeds.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Globalization, Government, and Science and Technology
1863. Getting Serious about the Twin Deficits
- Author:
- Menzie D. Chinn
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Twenty years ago, the United States was the world's largest creditor nation, unsurpassed in its ownership of assets outside of its borders, even after deducting what foreigners owned inside its borders. Yet over the past two decades, America has been transformed into the world's largest debtor nation. At the end of 2004, its debts to the rest of the world exceeded its assets by about $2.5 trillion—21 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). This proportion is unmatched by any other major developed economy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
1864. Power-Sharing in Iraq
- Author:
- David L. Phillips
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Iraq's elections on January 30, 2005, were a watershed in the country's history. Still, democracy involves much more than voting. It is about the distribution of political power through institutions and laws that guarantee accountable rule. The real fight for power will be over Iraq's permanent constitution.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
1865. The Current State of the Japanese Economy
- Author:
- Edward J. Lincoln
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and East Asia
1866. Human Capital, R and Competition in Macroeconomic Analysis
- Author:
- Erik Canton, Bert Minne, Ate Nieuwenhuis, Bert Smid, and Mark van der Steeg
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Long-run per capita economic growth is driven by productivity growth. Major determinants of productivity are investments in education and research, and the intensity of competition on product markets. While these ideas have been incorporated into modern growth theories and tested in empirical analyses, they have not yet found their way to applied macroeconomic models used to forecast economic developments. In this paper, we discuss various options to include human capital, R and product market competition in a macroeconomic framework. We also study how policy can affect the decisions to build human capital or to perform research, and how competition policy impacts on macroeconomic outcomes. We finally sketch how these mechanisms can be implemented into the large models used at the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- Netherlands
1867. Hub-and-Spoke or Else? Free Trade Agreements in the Enlarged EU - A Gravity Model Estimate
- Author:
- Luca De Benedictis, Roberta De Santis, and Claudio Vicarelli
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the EU's eastern enlargement on the trade patterns of the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs)1 that joined the EU in May 2004. In particular, the paper investigates whether and how the EU free trade agreements (FTAs) with the CEECs affected centre-peripheral and intra-peripheral trade flows. It also evaluates whether the prospect of joining the EU had the added positive effects on the export flows of the CEECs that had been anticipated.
- Topic:
- Development and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Eastern Europe
1868. Iran: The Moment of Truth
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson, François Heisbourg, and Vladimir Sazhin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The definition of European policy objectives and strategies vis-à-vis Iran's nuclear ambitions must take into account the specificities of the case, setting, as it were, its problématique. First, we have the unusual situation of a basically three-way game: the EU (and notably the EU-3, comprising the UK, France and Germany), Iran and the 'significant other', the United States, which is outside of the negotiation but a key player. Any student in strategy knows that a triangle is the most unstable and tricky combination to deal with, and the presence of yet another set of outsiders (notably Russia and China) adds another element of complexity.
- Topic:
- Development and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany
1869. Is the European Economy a Patient and the Union its Doctor? On Jobs and Growth in Europe
- Author:
- Sjef Ederveen, Albert van der Hoorst, and Paul Tang
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- A stronger focus on jobs and growth is part of an effort to renew the Lisbon strategy. Yet the view that economic expansion contributes to maintaining Lisbon's other goals of social cohesion as well as the environment is somewhat optimistic. First, there are structural trade-offs among the central elements of the Lisbon strategy. Escaping these trade-offs temporarily is sometimes possible but requires policy changes. Second, higher productivity (growth) may not provide more structural room for governments to manoeuvre. It leads to higher tax receipts but also to higher public expenditures since public sector wages and social security benefits are linked to productivity. In contrast, more employment (jobs) is associated with a smaller public sector. But to engineer the increase in employment, changes in welfare state arrangements are needed. In other words, focussing solely on the sick child will probably harm the other children.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Economics, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Lisbon
1870. Speed of Convergence and Relocation: New EU Member Countries Catching up with the Old
- Author:
- Kari E. O. Alho, Ville Kaitili, and Mike Widgrén
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Economic convergence of the EU's new member countries (NMCs) towards the incumbent EU countries (EU-15) is of paramount importance for both partners, not only in terms of real income but also in nominal terms. In this study we build a dynamic, computable general equilibrium model, starting from the Balassa-Samuelson two-sector framework, then modify and enlarge it (with, among other things, endogenous capital formation, consumption behaviour and labour mobility) to address several other issues such as uncertainty, welfare and sustainability in terms of foreign indebtedness. At the same time we make flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) endogenous in order to evaluate the impact convergence has on the EU-15 and the inter action between the two regions through FDI. We find that in a general equilibrium setting, fears of adverse effects resulting from a relocation of EU-15 manufacturing to the NMCs are not well founded.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1871. The Rise of China with Special Reference to Arms Supplies
- Author:
- Peter Brookes, Bruno Tertrais, and Alexei D. Voskressenski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Like the rest of the world, Europe has been fascinated by the emergence of China for a long time, and there has been an official relationship between the EU and the People's Republic of China for 30 years now. This relationship was upgraded in 1998. It now takes the form of a China-EU summit every year, the latest having taken place in December 2004. The EU became China's main trading partner in 2004, with trade between the two parties soaring to €160 billion.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation and Development
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
1872. Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area
- Author:
- Ville Kaitila
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This working paper analyses conditional convergence in Europe and also tries to assess the impact that arises from integration. Using a pooled mean-group estimation method, we first analyse the conditional convergence of GDP per labour force in the area covering the 15 member states of the European Union (EU-15) in 1960-2002. Conditional convergence is well-documented for the EU- 15. Higher investment, lower public consumption and lower inflation have contributed positively to GDP growth. Deeper European integration is shown to have accelerated growth when inflation is not included in the specification, but not otherwise. The evidence on the effect of integration on growth is therefore mixed. We then apply the same method to estimate the growth of GDP per labour force in the new EU member states – the eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) – for the period 1993-2002. These countries are shown to have converged conditionally towards the average level of GDP per labour force in the EU-15. Higher investment and lower public consumption have also supported growth in the CEECs.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Development
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1873. Indo-US Relations: Where Are They Headed?
- Author:
- Ronen Sen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for the Advanced Study of India
- Abstract:
- I am Francine Frankel, director of the Center for the Advanced Study of India. It is a very special pleasure to extend a warm welcome to all of you for this special occasion. We are honored to welcome Ambassador of India Ronen Sen for a very unusual event. This is the opportunity to participate in a dialogue with India's most distinguished diplomat and active participant in ongoing discussions of the potential for changing the direction of India-US relations and potentially the future great power balance in Asia.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, India, East Asia, and Asia
1874. From Estrangement to Engagement: U.S. - India Relations since May 1998
- Author:
- Strobe Talbott
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for the Advanced Study of India
- Abstract:
- Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you very, very much for coming. My name is Peter Geithner. I have the privilege of welcoming you this afternoon, but I have to confess that I'm standing in for the Chairman of the International Advisory Board of CASI, Marshall Bouton. To his great regret, Marshall has had to lead a delegation from the city of Chicago, chaired by the mayor, on an overseas trip that he simply could not change in order to be here, but he sends his warmest regards and again expresses his great regrets at not being able to be part of this event this afternoon.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, South Asia, India, and Chicago
1875. "Qui a le bâton, a le buffle". Le corporatisme économique de l'armée pakistanaise
- Author:
- Amélie Blom
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- "He who has the stick, has the buffalo". This Punjabi proverb applies well to Pakistan's armed forces, a majority of which, in fact, hail from this province. They have gradually formed an economic interest group with many industrial and commercial activities that have become an integral part of Pakistan's everyday life. Oddly enough, this patent fact has been neglected by the academic research on Pakistan or, at best, has only been addressed in a descriptive manner. The present study attempts to explain the transformation of Pakistan's armed forces into a significant economic actor by reinterpreting Charles Tilly's thesis about the dependent militarization of Third World states. It emphasizes the crucial role played by local capital, especially land. It also stresses how endogenous historical factors (the colonial legacy) and political factors (the delicate civil-military balance of power) have helped the army to consolidate itself institutionally. Yet, since the 1980s, the expansion of military economic corporatism has provoked increased tensions between the army and its civilian partners, primarily the bureaucracy, which is the main loser in this unfair competition for state property. It also produces social resistance: unprecedented civil disobedience movements have appeared, and old grievances emanating from ethnic groups under-represented within the army have been reawakened. The phenomenon also creates friction within the armed forces themselves. Nevertheless, these tensions do not seriously undermine a corporatist rationale that is far too effective and functional to disappear. Paradoxically, the military's "privatisation" contributes to its internal cohesion. Indeed, military patrimonialism in Pakistan can usefully be analysed as one of the many processes that has helped the armed forces maintain a strong "esprit de corps" and which has given rise to what can be termed "military syndicalism".
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Asia
1876. CERI: "Shadow States"? State building and national invention under external constraint in Kosovo and East Timor (1974-2002)
- Author:
- Raphaël Pouyé
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- Kosovo and East Timor have often been jointly considered for their common experience of new 'international protectorate'. These two territories were 'liberated' in 1999 by multilateral interventions' and thereafter ruled by United Nations transitional administrations. This feature is at the core of nearly all comparative exercises about the two territories to this day. However, another less obvious set of resemblances calls for renewed attention: it was indicated by the post-liberation resilience of indigenous institutions that had emerged during the 20 to 25 years of resistance. From this initial observation, I spent months in the field between 2000 and 2003 and uncovered a wider array of similarities. Three main parallels appeared. In both, the clandestine resistance networks, described here as 'crypto-states' have directed their strategic choices on the resort to violence according to perceived international opinion, while remaining a hybrid association of anti-state kinship groups and 'modern' urban elites, with the result of producing a dual discourse on nationhood: exclusive and militant on the one hand, inclusive and 'liberal' on the other.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
1877. Adding 3Ns to the 3Ds: Lessons from the 1996 Zaire Mission for Humanitarian Interventions
- Author:
- Andrew F. Cooper
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the 3D (defence, diplomacy, and development) framework for humanitarian interventions in weak states and/or conflict situations. It accepts that there are some considerable strengths built into this strategic concept for it privileges both a “whole of government” approach and the need to emphasize capacity building in all areas of governance. It argues, however, that the 3D framework remains too narrow in its logic and mode of application. The paper asserts that the 3D approach needs to be complemented by another configuration termed the 3Ns - niches, norms, and networks. In suggesting that the framework guiding humanitarian interventions needs to be extended in this fashion, this work considers both evolving cases (Afghanistan, Haiti, and potentially Darfur) and offers a detailed examination of the pivotal Canadian rescue mission to Zaire at the end of 1996. At the core of the paper is the contention that Canada needs to cast its involvement in humanitarian interventions through a less bureaucratically driven approach. What is required instead is a fuller appreciation of contextual considerations.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Development, Diplomacy, and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Canada, and Haiti
1878. BRICSAM and the Non-WTO
- Author:
- Agata Antkiewicz and John Whalley
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- We discuss recent regional trade and economic partnership agreements involving the large population, rapidly growing economies (BRICSAM: Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa, ASEAN, and Mexico). Perhaps 50 out of 300 agreements that exist worldwide involve BRICSAM countries; most are recently concluded and will be implemented over the next few years. Along with extensive bilateral investment treaties, mutual recognition agreements, and other country to country (or region) arrangements they are part of what we term the non-WTO. This paper aims to document and characterize the agreements and analyze their possible impacts. Agreements differ in specificity, coverage and content. In some treaties there are detailed and specific commitments, but these also co-exist with seemingly vague commitments and (at times) opaque dispute settlement and enforcement mechanisms. Whether these represent a partial replacement of the World Trade Organization (WTO) process for newly negotiated reciprocity based on global trade liberalization or largely represent diplomatic protocol alongside significant WTO disciplines is the subject of this paper.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico
1879. Stretching the Model of "Coalitions of the Willing"
- Author:
- Andrew F. Cooper
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Two models may be draw up of coalitions of the willing. The first model is epitomized by the group of countries assembled by the United States for the mobilization of the 2003 Iraq war. The second model is the form of coalition associated with the anti-personnel landmines campaign and the initiative on the International Criminal Court in the mid to late 1990s. This paper will explore the relationship between these different types of coalitions. The former type is characterized by a top-down, state-centric, and coerced/opportunistic strategic form. The latter type by way of contrast takes a bottom-up, voluntary, mixed actor, diplomatic approach. Yet, along side these differences are some striking, but unanticipated similarities. Most dramatically, both types have been assembled on an intense stylistic basis with an eye to avoiding the frustrations associated with working via established institutions. By looking more closely at the external expression and inner workings of these modes of activity, the model of coalitions of the willing is stretched out in terms of their motivations, sense of ownership, and future trajectory.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
1880. Building Effective and Accountable Security Institutions in Africa
- Author:
- Jeffrey O. Isima
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
- Abstract:
- This report is a product of a three-day workshop on Security Sector Governance in Africa, held in Cotonou, the Republic of Benin, in April 2005. The Workshop, titled Building Effective and Accountable Security Institutions in Africa: A Dialogue on Governance, was organised by the African Security Sector Network (ASSN) in collaboration with the Group on the Democratic, Economic and Social Development of Africa (GERDDES – Africa) and the African Security Dialogue Research (ASDR), and facilitated by the Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform (GFN-SSR).
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1881. How to Negotiate Over Trade: A Summary of New Research for Developing Countries
- Author:
- John S. Odell and Antonio Ortiz Mena L.N.
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- Developing country governments frequently negotiate with other governments over trade issues. Most developing countries are now members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and many of the rest are negotiating to join it. In the Doha Development Agenda, members find themselves facing multilateral talks of daunting complexity. The issues range from established ones such as market access, to the revision of WTO rules on antidumping, subsidies, and dispute settlement, to controversies over proposed new rules on investment and competition policies. Sometimes governments also negotiate to settle legal disputes about members' compliance with existing rules. Many are simultaneously negotiating new regional and bilateral pacts as well. This paper provides an advance summary of a research project developed by a group of scholars in 2003 to address the need of many developing countries to improve their capacity to participate effectively in trade negotiations.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
1882. Las bases internas de la política exterior: realidades y retos de la apertura económica y la democracia
- Author:
- Guadalupe González González
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this paper is to analyze the links between economic liberalization, democratization and foreign policy using the Mexican experience as a case study. The paper revolves around three major concerns: a) the change in the role and place of foreign policy in the context of an open economy and a democratic regime, compared with the previous period of a closed economy and an authoritarian regime; b) the impact of economic liberalization and democratization on the formulation, agenda and orientation of foreign policy; c) the effects of the new economic, political and social internal configuration on the international position of Mexico and its negotiating capacity vis a vis the world. This work documents an increase in the level of activity and interest shown by numerous social, governmental and bureaucratic actors in foreign policy issues as a consequence of economic openness and democratization of the political regime, which leads towards a greater politization of the issue area. The main argument is that the deficits in economic and social development, democratic consolidation and governability, negatively affect the country's credibility and its negotiating capacity vis a vis the world.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Mexico
1883. Tendencias y patrones de la cooperación internacional para el desarrollo económico
- Author:
- Arturo C. Sotomayor
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- This paper provides a literature review and explores the evolution of official development aid (ODA) in the past decade. The main empirical puzzles that guide this research are: how has foreign development aid or ODA evolved historically within the broader framework of international cooperation? Who are the main ODA contributors? What countries provide more foreign aid in terms of their gross domestic product? What motivations drive ODA contributions? Which developing countries benefit the most from foreign aid?
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, and Politics
1884. Getting to “No”: Defending Against Demands in NAFTA Energy Negotiations
- Author:
- Antonio Ortiz Mena L.N.
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- How can a developing country defend itself against unwanted demands in international economic negotiations, especially when the demandeur is a stronger state? Such defense can be a necessary component of any strategy, not only a distributive one but also a mixed strategy aimed at a wider agreement that benefits both sides. Sometimes what looks like an unwelcome demand turns out, after exploration and exchanges of concessions, to be an acceptable element in a beneficial package deal. But some demands are unwelcome in the stronger sense that one's government places an infinite reservation value on that particular issue. The government would prefer no agreement. In the case of a deal breaker, the delegation can walk away from the entire negotiation, but this could have large costs in opportunities foregone and even possible penalties imposed. What are the alternatives short of walking away? Mexico's negotiators faced such situation in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) negotiations with the United States and Canada (1990-1992), specifically in the energy sector. In general the three states sought a mutual-gains agreement, and in general each employed a mixed strategy. In energy, however, Washington made demands--regarding investment and supply commitments--which Mexico found unacceptable. At the end of the day the Mexican team managed to attain its main offensive negotiation aims in NAFTA (significantly improved market access, faster tariff reductions in the U.S. and Canada than in Mexico, and an effective dispute settlement mechanism), as well as the main defensive ones in energy. How did they do it? Structural conditions, such as being a neighbor of the U.S., gives Mexico certain leverage in negotiations, for the U.S. will typically take into account non-economic considerations when negotiating over economic issues. Nonetheless, many lessons derived from Mexico's negotiation strategy in energy negotiations during NAFTA can be applied across a range of cases.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Energy Policy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Canada, North America, and Mexico
1885. What Role for Learning? The Diffusion of Privatisation in the OECD and Latin American Countries
- Author:
- Covadonga Meseguer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- In this paper, I enquire whether 37 governments in industrial and in Latin American countries privatised as a result of learning from experience. Using a rational updating model, I examine whether the decision in the 1980s and 1990s to streamline the public sector was the outcome of a revision of beliefs about the effectiveness of privatisation or whether, alternatively, it was triggered by international pressures or mimicry. The results suggest that rational learning and especially emulation were two important factors in the decision to privatise. International pressures, here proxied by the presence or absence of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund and by European Union membership, are irrelevant to explanations of the decision to privatise. Finally, domestic political conditions appear relevant to the decision to launch privatisation but only when the analysis is carried out for each of the regional sub-samples. In the OECD countries, centre-left governments were more likely to privatise whereas in Latin American more repressive regimes were more willing to divest.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
1886. What is New in the Study of Policy Diffusion? A Critical Review
- Author:
- Fabricio Gilardi and Convadonga Meseguer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- This paper surveys what is new in the study of the international diffusion of policies and institutions. We critically review the most recent contributions on the topic, trying to identify the substantive and methodological novelties in this literature. Regarding mechanisms, we argue that whereas there is acknowledgement that they overlap, there is hardly any attention to the way in which they interact (either with other mechanisms of diffusion or with domestic factors). More generally, mechanisms are studied separately and are not integrated into a coherent model of diffusion. Regarding empirics, we argue that existing studies have concentrated on policies that seem to have diffused in an explosive way despite the fact that both theory and methods are appropriate to study any type of diffusion. We argue that new empirical work should tackle the difficult issue of how to better operationalize alternative diffusion mechanisms. More attention should also be given to modeling diffusion processes to account for the fact that causal patterns may be highly heterogeneous in time and space. Finally, we show that the last wave of studies on diffusion may have had the unintended consequence of opening up new questions. Some of these questions are about the mechanisms that initiate vs. accelerate the diffusion of policies and institutions, why policies diffuse in clusters rather than globally, why some policies diffuse faster than others and why some policies do not diffuse at all.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Development
1887. Erez Industrial Estate Pilot Study: An Implementation Plan
- Author:
- Jocelyn Brooks
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- A previous study by the East West Institute in April 2005 concluded that industrial estates offer promising opportunities for economic rehabilitation, employment regeneration, the development of export-based industries, and provide a focal point for domestic and international investment in the Palestinian Territories.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
1888. The Erez and Gaza Industrial Estates: Catalysts for Development
- Author:
- Aiman Mackie
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The political and economic landscape in the Middle East is changing in ways that would have been hard to imagine months ago. With changes in governments, the near cessation of violence, the more active reengagement of the United States in the peace process, and various positive signals from both sides, including direct meetings between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, the longstanding conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is entering a period of relative optimism. Recent indications are that the Palestinian Authority is ready to work jointly with five parallel working groups being set up by the Government of Israel to address different aspects of the planned disengagement from Gaza, and the Quartet Principals have appointed out- going World Bank President James D. Wolfensohn as Special Envoy for Gaza Disengagement. The Special Envoy is charged with leading, overseeing and coordinating the international community's efforts in support of the disengagement initiative.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
1889. Organizational blindness: a methodological approximation of the functioning of organizations
- Author:
- Delphine Mercier
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
- Abstract:
- This article analyzes organizational phenomena using the perspective of sociological theory, and in particular interactionist sociology. I demonstrate that traditional analysis in terms of power, professional culture, or autonomy regulation does not reveal the complexity of the dynamic of the interactions of an organizational structure. I construct an interpretative and methodological framework towards understanding the causes of organizational blindness and some possible resolutions. This argument is illustrated through the analysis of a case study that departs from the definition created by the organization's actors.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, and Politics
1890. Radical conclusion and conflict in the formation of the people's populism
- Author:
- Sebastián Barros
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
- Abstract:
- This article reviews the concept of populism as presented by Ernesto Laclau. I argue that Laclau's definition needs to clarify the reference to “the excluded” in order to isolate the specificity of populism. By bringing into the discussion an argument about the conflictive nature of politics, I contend that populism can be defined as the moment of the eruption of the excluded. In other words, the idea of radical inclusion means that populist discourse provokes the transformation of the institutional order.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, Government, and Politics
1891. Elections in Mexico: restrictions, fraud, and conflicts
- Author:
- José María Infante
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
- Abstract:
- The development of electoral processes in modern democracies has a long history of reconstructions that slowly lifted restrictive conditions. This development has not been without conflicts and many obstacles have had to be overcome to establish citizens' confidence in voting. In the case of Mexico, electoral transformation experienced many difficulties, and combined with the strong presence of the state machinery elections were unreliable until the end of the 20th century. Therefore, despite advances, there are still many problems with the electoral process. This article provides a summary of the principal electoral issues in the past decade in an attempt to unravel the causes.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Mexico
1892. Chilean Foreign Policy: Exceptionality or Continuity? A review of "profound forces" and tendencies
- Author:
- María Elena Lorenzini and Myriam Colacrai
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this article is to explore how identity and profound forces shape the foreign policy of states. The author discusses how traditional Chilean foreign policy actions reveal its identity while also taking into account new external policy trends that seemingly operate within the construction of a new identity. With respect to profound forces, the article examines the following: institutional stability and democratic processes ( Pinochet's dictatorship is an exception here), presidentialism, territorial factors and regional balance, and the civic-pragmatic style of its diplomacy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- South America
1893. (In)accessibility of the knowledge society: a critical reading of the production of modern sociology
- Author:
- Daniel Muriel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this article is to develop an approximation of the concept of a society of knowledge while trying to avoid the risks that this implies when using a modernist perspective of sociology. The author reviews the different major phases of change described by modern sociologists since the second half of the 20th century. The article provides a critical review of modern sociological thought in relation to a plausible formulation of a knowledgable society as a conceptual tool that helps us to understand certain contemporary problems.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Development, and Education
1894. Communitarianism as the Official Politics of "Middle Earth"
- Author:
- Rafael Cuesta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
- Abstract:
- In this article, I analyze some political and philosophical references taken from the movie, The Lord of the Rings. This production was immensely popular at the end of the twentieth century (from a literary perspective as well as from a cinematography viewpoint) however it maintains many characteristics of epic poems and ancient legends such as the expressions of Beowulf. The article aims to establish the terms of a central debate in contemporary political theory by examining the representation of communitarianism and liberalism portrayed in J.R. Tolkien ́s work.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, Education, and Politics
1895. Political Science or How to Engage in Politics by Other Means
- Author:
- Iaki Martnez de Albeniz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
- Abstract:
- This article is concerned with the scientific production of politics from a critical viewpoint. Using a constructivist perspective, it analyzes the so-called black box of political science, namely the essence of politics itself. Although protected from critique, because in principle a discipline cannot question the object of its analysis, it is precisely the definition of politics that is the most controversial and thus requires further analysis. Therefore, the central theme of political science is the definition of politics. I contend that once politics is defined, not as a certainty but as a scientific construction, it raises many questions: Why does the issue of the meaning of politics emerge? How does political science construct politics? What are the discursive effects of this construction in the political sphere? What does it mean to “do politics” and how do we define political action? It is these questions that I seek to address in this article.
- Topic:
- Development, Politics, and Science and Technology
1896. Ethics and Politics in the Democratic Society
- Author:
- María de los Ángeles Yannuzzi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
- Abstract:
- In this article I argue that the relationship between ethics and politics in modern democracy is tense and dangerous. In particular, it is dangerous because ethics introduces a strong moral relativism. Moreover, in complex societies this connection cannot be sustained in the field of politics. That is, when power enters the ethical dimension it distorts it because the discourse of ethics becomes a way of justifying power. It is this interweaving that causes constant tension between ethics and politics such that there is never a satisfactory resolution. Therefore, I purport that only the implementation of an argumentative logic that starts with the recognition of the precariousness and ambivalence of the relation between ethics and politics can serve as a protection against those distortions. Without this approach there is risk that the spaces of liberty will be limited by the power of the state in the name of ethics.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
1897. Politicians of Global Governance
- Author:
- Philip Sebastian Mller
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
- Abstract:
- Global governance offers an alternative perspective from which to imagine world order and is becoming a serious contender for explaining how we see the world and it is guiding us in legitimizing our actions in the world. Who are the politicians of global governance? What can we expect from them? What is their agenda? In order to address these questions, two things are necessary: We need to look at the structural and generative logic of global governance, identify its politics, and question the real people that are the politicians of global governance that have real-world impacts in a world order conceptualized as global governance.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, International Organization, and Politics
1898. The Long and Winding Road to Arab Democracy
- Author:
- Erik Boel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- From Marrakesh to Cairo and from Ramallah to Riyadh, the Arabs debate and reflect on their own society as never done before. However, the road to democratisation in that region is long and winding. This paper analyses the experience the Americans have acquired regarding that goal which the US has placed on top of the international agenda. Experience, which can also be useful in a Danish context.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
1899. Migrant Remittances, Development and Gender
- Author:
- Ninna Nyberg Sørensten
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Migration transforms not only the destiny of individual migrants but also the conditions of family members left behind, of local communities and of the wider society. Despite the fact that migratory processes are multidimensional and may generate a wide array of positive as well as negative consequences for development, remittances have lately become the single most emphasized evidence and measuring stick for the ties connecting migrants with their societies of origin.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, Gender Issues, and Migration
1900. A Special Part of Europe: Nation, State and Religion among Orthodox Slavs
- Author:
- Biljana Vankovska and Håkan Wiberg
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The paper studies how nation, state and religion – in particular: churches – are related among Orthodox South Slavs: Bulgarians, Serbs, Macedonians and Montenegrins. The close relations between (self-conceived) nations and churches go back to the Ottoman Empire, and seem to have been strengthened by the conflicts in Former Yugoslavia since 1990. The close relation between state and nation go back to how the Ottoman empire was dissolved and have also been strengthened by the same conflicts, even though all states proclaim themselves as non- discriminatory in this respect. The close relation between church and state also has long historical roots, but is more ambiguous today, with elements of competition as well as cooperation – and the latter is seen by many as having gone too far under communism. It is notable that where there are attempts to stabilise a separate identity – in Macedonia and Montenegro – establishing separate churches is a part of this on par with defining separate languages, rewriting history, etc. and the churches are seen as important national symbols even among quite secularised groups; and the same is true for the resistance against separation from the Serbian Orthodox Church.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Montenegro