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1982. The Saudi Security Apparatus: Military and Security Services - Challenges and Developments
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Nawaf Obaid
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- Both Saudi Arabia's security situation, and the Saudi security apparatus, are undergoing major changes. Saudi Arabia no longer faces a major threat from Iraq, but must deal with the growing risk that Iran will become a nuclear power. This confronts Saudi Arabia with hard strategic choices as to whether to ignore Iran's efforts to proliferate, seek US military assistance in deterring Iran and possibly in some form of missile defense, or to acquire more modern missiles and its own weapons of mass destruction.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Development, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia
1983. State Development Planning: Did it Create an East Asian Miracle?
- Author:
- Benjamen Powell
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Independent Institute
- Abstract:
- East Asian countries have recorded large increases in per capita GDP over the last fifty years. Some observers have referred to this growth as an “East Asian Miracle.” One popular explanation attributes the rapid growth to state led industrial development planning. This paper critically assesses the arguments surrounding state development planning and East Asia's growth. Whether the state can acquire the knowledge necessary to calculate which industries it should promote and how state development planning can deal with political incentive problems faced by planners are both examined. When we look at the development record of East Asian countries we find that to the extent development planning did exist, it could not calculate which industries would promote development, so it instead promoted industrialization. We also find that what rapid growth in living standards did occur can be better explained by free markets than state planning because, as measured in economic freedom indexes, these countries were some of the most free market in the world.
- Topic:
- Development, Industrial Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Israel and East Asia
1984. Institutional Foundations of Economic Freedom: A time-series cross-section analysis
- Author:
- Xavier de Vanssay, Vincent Hildebrand, and Zane A. Spindler
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Independent Institute
- Abstract:
- Using time-series cross-section analysis, we provide additional empirical validation for the principal-agent model developed by Adserà, et al. (2003). In our innovation, efficient economic policy is proxied by “economic freedom” from the Fraser Institute database and “political institutions” are proxied by variables from the Database of Political Institutions. Our results suggest that the more credible the threat of removal from office, the more government officials will pursue efficient economic policies.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Government, and Political Economy
1985. Firm Size, Technical Efficiency and Productivity Growth in Chinese Industry'
- Author:
- Dic Lo and Yuk-Shing Cheng
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- Since the mid-1990s, China's state leadership has adopted a policy of nurturing the competitiveness of large state-owned industrial enterprises. The implications of this policy have been a matter of debate in the literature. This paper seeks to provide some useful input into the debate. With a view of investigating into the potential of long-term development of large enterprises, we estimate the “sequential production technology” in computing the Malmquist productivity index for various size-groups of enterprises in Chinese industry. Our findings indicate that large enterprises did register the fastest productivity growth and improvement in technical efficiency in the 1994-97 period. It thus appears that large-scale, mainly state-owned Chinese enterprises have exhibited the potential of m a king noticeable improvements and the relevant state policy does have its justification.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China
1986. Social origins of Ottoman industrialisation: Evidence from the Macedonian town of Naoussa
- Author:
- Costas Lapavitsas
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- Ottoman industrialisation in cotton spinning was led by the town of Naoussa in Macedonia. This paper shows that Naoussa capitalists grasped the opportunities created by trade liberalisation, accumulated capital in domestic manufacture of woollen cloth, and secured a regular supply of low-wage female labour and free hydraulic energy. It is further shown that they took advantage of local institutional and political mechanisms within the Christian community independent of the relatively remote Ottoman state. But there was no capitalist transformation of agriculture, even though Naoussa capitalists often owned large land estates. Lack of broader institutional and political influence and absence of capitalist transformation of agriculture hampered the transformation of Naoussa capitalists from a provincial social group into a broad-based capitalist class.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Macedonia
1987. China's Nexus of Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: Making Sense of the Anomaly
- Author:
- Dic Lo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- Using a range of specifications that are standard in the relevant literature, this paper finds that China's rapid and sustained economic growth in the reform era has tended to be negatively correlated with its export growth and positively correlated with its import growth. This finding runs counter to widely -held perceptions on China's nexus of foreign trade and economic growth, and thus presents a serious challenge for interpretation. On the basis of some further regression analyses, and drawing on a number of applied studies on the subject matter, the paper argues that the finding is plausible and of complex ramifications. The conclusion which this paper arrives at, therefore, is that the Chinese experience has tended to be a case of strategic integration into the world market, rather than conforming to the standard neoclassical thesis of trade regime neutrality.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China
1988. The case for regional exchange rate arrangement in East Asia'
- Author:
- Takuji Kinkyo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- The Asian crisis highlighted the difficulties for developing countries to actively manage exchange rates in an environment of high capital mobility. Now it became fashionable to argue that the exchange rate should be either allowed to float freely or irrevocably fixed. This paper examines the case for regional exchange rate arrangements as an instrument to enhance the manageability of exchange rates and discusses the options in East Asia. It critically assess the existing proposal of common basket peg system and suggests that East Asia should seek to create an Asian-version of regional monetary system modeled on the EMS.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- East Asia and Asia
1989. Disorderly adjustments to exchange rate misalignments: The experience of Korea'
- Author:
- Takuji Kinkyo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes Korea's exchange rate dynamics before and during the crisis of 1997-98 by estimating the long-run fundamental exchange rate and the associated error correction model. The analysis suggests that although Korea's exchange rate was substantially overvalued before the crisis, the subsequent exchange rate dynamics could not fully be accounted by the need to correct misalignments. It was found that there was a large deviation from the short-run fundamental value of exchange rates, indicating the presence of “overshooting of the overshooting equilibrium” during the crisis. The findings have important policy implications for crisis management in emerging market economies.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Korea
1990. Transmission channels of capital flow shocks: why Korean crisis was so severe'
- Author:
- Takuji Kinkyo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- The Asian crisis highlighted the vulnerability of emerging market economies faced by sudden capital flow reversals. An important question that has critical implications for crisis management is how negative shocks in capital inflows were transmitted to economic activities, transforming financial instability into fully-fledged crises. Using VARs, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of capital flow shocks during the Korean crisis of 1997-98. Although it is commonly believed that severe economic contractions were caused by credit crunch, the analysis suggests that the major constraint for production was a steep rise in prices of imported inputs due to sharp exchange rate depreciations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Korea
1991. Does South Africa Suffer from the Fear of Float' Syndrome?An Analysis of the Efficacy and Challenges of a Managed Floating Exchange Rate Regime with Financial Integration'
- Author:
- Olano Makhubela
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- The paper examines whether South Africa suffers from a 'fear of float' syndrome. The analysis also covers the efficacy and challenges of a managed floating exchange rate regime. I use time series data, volatility equations and ARCH models to test the volatility of South Africa's exchange rate, interest rate and foreign exchange reserves. Evidence shows that South Africa has volatile interest and exchange rates, but not foreign exchange reserves. Yet, South Africa does not seem to suffer from an extreme and chronic form of 'fear of floating'. South Africa requires financial integration to finance its current account deficits and to complement its low savings rate. Yet, evidence indicates that both capital account openness and foreign exchange control liberalization have no robust impact on growth. The authorities' intervention in the 2001 currency crisis did not help. Hence, I recommend that South Africa should use interest rates early to target both inflation and foreign exchange rates. Challenges remain in the form of relatively high interest rates, volatile capital flows, perceptions, destabilizing speculation, and loopholes in foreign exchange controls.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- South Africa
1992. Globalisation and Comparative Economics: Of Efficiency, Efficient Institutions, and Late Development'
- Author:
- Dic Lo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- Does globalisation entail a demand for uniformity, or diversity, of the (political) economic institutions of nation-states? What is the theoretical underpinning of the demand? And what are the implications of the demand for economic development? The conventional literature known as comparative economic systems has been unable to answer these question, because there is an intrinsic tension between its methodology (the neoclassical framework of individualistic rational choices and their equilibrium) and the subject matter (the multiplicity of economic institutions and development experiences in the real world). The new comparative economics has consisted of a variety of attempts to cope with this tension: some aimed at preserving the neoclassical framework at a m o re fundamental level, while some others aim e d at transcending the framework to arrive at a new theory of economic system s and development. This paper argues that attempts that adhere to the neoclassical tradition is likely to lead to dead ends, while attempts that encompass collective as well as individualistic rationality represent m o re promising directions. Fuller developments of the literature, however, require incorporating objectified institutions and paradigmised technology in to its sphere of inquiry. It is submitted that there are important lessons to learn from classical political economy and their modern presentations, particularly Marxian theories of the social forces of production, in this regard.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
1993. Household water and sanitation services in Saudi Arabia: an analysis of economic, political and ecological issues'
- Author:
- Elie Elhadj
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- This study evaluates Saudi Arabia's investment in household water and sanitation services (WSS) over the past three decades or so. It finds that over one half of Saudi householders still have no municipal water connections and two thirds are without sanitation connections. Saudi cities have no rain water drainage system s to deal with the brief and occasional, but severe deluges of winters. Desalinated water is transmitted across hundreds of kilometers of desert terrain to two major urban centers (Riyadh and Qaseem) that are rich in groundwater reserves while their local water is used in irrigation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Environment, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia
1994. Camels don't fly, deserts don't bloom: an assessment of Saudi Arabia's experiment in desert agriculture'
- Author:
- Elie Elhadj
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- Severe arid conditions constrained agricultural production and population size in the Arabian Peninsula over the millennia (except around oases and in parts of Yemen). An abrupt change in Saudi Arabia started in the 1980s to make the desert bloom. This study examines whether or not the Saudi experiment in desert irrigation has been worthwhile in terms of cost and benefit. It concludes that the project was a waste of money and water on a grand scale.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Environment, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Sinai Peninsula
1995. The household water crisis in Syria's Greater Damascus Region'
- Author:
- Elie Elhadj
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- Damascus residents talk in recent years of long periods of daily water shut-offs for most months especially between June and the following January. “ In 2001 … stringent water rationing was in force in Damascus… the authorities … shut off the capital's piped water supply for 20 hours each day (compared with 16 hours previously) from July of that year. Europa Publications (2002: p.979).”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Environment, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Syria
1996. Compensating Differentials and the Queue For Public Sector Jobs: Evidence from Egyptian Household Survey Data'
- Author:
- Mona Said
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- This Paper considers the determinants of male and female pay in the public and private sectors by estimating a joint model of sector allocation and wage determination using cross-sectional data from the Egyptian 1987 and 1997 labour force surveys. The results points to the profound impact of the graduate public sector employment guarantee on labour market segmentation in Egypt. In particular, the level of educational attainment became the most important factor in sorting workers between sectors. Comparison of the 1987 and 1997 results highlight that the strong impact of the public sector employment guarantee on the labour market in the 1980s was weakened in the 1990s for males but remains important for females. Moreover, risk-averse individuals (proxied by those who have greater financial responsibility in their households) have a greater probability of choosing public sector than private sector employment. These results are consistent with the effective operation of the guarantee for more highly educated workers and with time based queuing for guaranteed positions. A model of compensating wage differentials is then defined and estimated, in order to quantify the value of arguably the three most important non-pecuniary aspects of public sector employment: job security, fringe benefits (especially comprehensive retirement pensions) and lower effort and shorter hours which allow workers to supplement income through obtaining a second job. Estimates of the publicprivate differentials, correcting for differences in characteristics and selectivity, indicate a public sector disadvantage for males and a small advantage for females in 1987. Relative public sector wages improved for both males and females in 1997, and when adjustments for non-wage benefits are included, public sector premia are observed in all segments of the public sector for both males and females. It also emerged that the single most important adjustment factor leading to the change in the differential is the value of job stability, which drives up the differential in favour of the public sector, particularly in manufacturing. The results highlight the importance of job security as the major factor determining the persistence of queues for public sector jobs in Egypt.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Egypt
1997. Assessing the Role of Foreign Direct Investment in China's Economic Development: Macro Indicators and Insights from Sectoral-Regional Analyses'
- Author:
- Dic Lo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- The objective of this paper is to assess the role of FDI in China's economic development with reference to the broader literature on FDI and late development. Three main findings come out from the analyses in the paper. First, it is found that FDI tends to promote the improvement in allocative efficiency, while having a negative impact on productive efficiency. Second, insofar as FDI does promote overall productivity growth, this tends to be a matter of cumulative causation rather than one of single-direction causation. Third, in the context of a comparative analysis of two distinctive regional models, it is found that the economic impact of FDI tends to be more favourable in the inward-looking, capital-deepening pattern of development (the 'Shanghai model') than that in the export-oriented, labour-intensive pattern (the 'Guangdong model'). Further analyses, however, suggest that the 'Shanghai model' has its intrinsic problems of sustainability. The scope for applying it to China as a whole is thus judged to be limited.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Shanghai
1998. Making States Work: From State Failure to State-Building
- Author:
- Michael Ignatieff, Ramesh Thakur, and Simon Chesterman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- It is frequently assumed that the collapse of state structures, whether through defeat by an external power or as a result of internal chaos, leads to a vacuum of political power. This is rarely the case. The mechanisms through which political power are exercised may be less formalized or consistent, but basic questions of how best to ensure the physical and economic security of oneself and one's dependants do not simply disappear when the institutions of the state break down. Non-state actors in such situations may exercise varying degrees of political power over local populations, at times providing basic social services from education to medical care. Even where non-state actors exist as parasites on local populations, political life goes on.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Peace Studies
1999. EU-UN Partnership in Crisis Management: Developments and Prospects
- Author:
- Alexandra Novosseloff
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- The EU and the UN have taken many practical steps recent years to formalize their relationship. As part this process, the EU has also achieved increasing political influence within the UN, although progress on this front has been limited in the Security Council.
- Topic:
- Development, Peace Studies, and United Nations
2000. The Future of UN State-Building: Strategic and Operational Challenges and the Legacy of Iraq
- Author:
- Kirsti Samuels and Sebastian von Einsiedel
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Whether by accident or design, the United Nations increasingly finds itself in operations that seek to build or re-build the institutions of a state. This report discusses the challenges facing the UN in such state-building activities in the post-Iraq environment. Three sorts of challenges are reviewed: those arising from a lack of conceptual clarity on the aim of state-building, those resulting from the transformed strategic environment, and those operational and strategic challenges inherent to the complex task of state-building.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East