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11001. The Inefficiency of Clearing Mandates

Author:
Craig Pirrong
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the financial crisis, attention has turned to reducing systemic risk in the derivatives markets. Much of this attention has focused on counterparty risk in the over-the counter market, where trades are bilaterally executed between dealers and derivative purchasers. One proposal for addressing such counterparty risk is to mandate the trading of derivatives over a centralized clearinghouse. This paper lays out the advantages and risks to a mandated clearing requirement, showing how, in some instances, such a mandate can actually increase systemic risk and result in more financial bailouts.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis

11002. The DISCLOSE Act, Deliberation, and the First Amendment

Author:
John Samples
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The United States Supreme Court decided in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission that Congress may not prohibit spending on political speech by corporations. President Obama and several members of Congress have sharply criticized Citizens United, and Sen. Charles Schumer and Rep. Chris Van Hollen have proposed the DISCLOSE Act in response to the ruling. DISCLOSE mandates disclosure of corporate sources of independent spending on speech, putatively in the interest of shareholders and voters. However, it is unlikely that either shareholders or voters would be made better off by this legislation. Shareholders could demand and receive such disclosure without government mandates, given the efficiency of capital markets. The benefits of such disclosure for voters are likely less than assumed, while the costs are paid in chilled speech and in less rational public deliberation. DISCLOSE also prohibits speech by government contractors, TARP recipients, and companies managed by foreign nationals. The case for prohibiting speech by each of these groups seems flawed. In general, DISCLOSE exploits loopholes in Citizens United limits on government control of speech to contravene the spirit of that decision and the letter of the First Amendment.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
United States

11003. Product Market Reforms in EU Countries: Are the methodology and evidence sufficiently robust?

Author:
Jacques Pelkmans
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In the EU of today, economic policies, competition policy and regulation are expected to be 'evidence-based'. The purpose of the present paper is to discuss critically the most prominent empirical approach to the measurement of regulation: the OECD product market regulation (PMR) indicators. The paper sets out what exactly product market reforms are and the empirical regulatory indicators that have been developed by the OECD, the World Bank and others.
Topic:
Markets and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

11004. Quantum Surveillance and 'Shared Secrets'

Author:
Juliet Lodge
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
It is no longer sensible to regard biometrics as having neutral socio-economic, legal and political impacts. Newer generation biometrics are fluid and include behavioural and emotional data that can be combined with other data. Therefore, a range of issues needs to be reviewed in light of the increasing privatisation of 'security' that escapes effective, democratic parliamentary and regulatory control and oversight at national, international and EU levels, argues Juliet Lodge, Professor and co-Director of the Jean Monnet European Centre of Excellence at the University of Leeds, UK.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

11005. Towards a Common European Border Service?

Author:
Sergio Carrera
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
What should be the future institutional configurations of the second generation of the EU's Integrated Border Management strategy for the common external borders? The Stockholm Programme endorsed by the European Council on December 2009 and the European Commission's action plan implementing it published in April 2010 have brought back to the EU policy agenda the feasibility of setting up a European system of border guards as a long-term policy vision. This Working Document examines the origins of this proposal and aims at thinking ahead by asserting that any future discussion and study in this context should be refocused by initially addressing two central questions: First, what kind of 'border guard' and what kinds of 'border controls' does the EU need in light of the current EU acquis on external border crossings and the Schengen Borders Code? Second, what would be the 'added value' of any new institutional arrangement at the current stage of European integration?
Topic:
International Law and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

11006. Common Security and Defence Policy and the Lisbon Treaty Fudge: No common strategic culture, no major progress

Author:
Vasilis Margaras
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With the establishment of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) in 1999, the EU aimed to tackle challenges in the field of security by deploying various police and military missions in troubled crisis areas. The consolidation of the CSDP raised hopes for the EU's role in external affairs. However, the majority of CSDP missions are still on a small scale. Strategic disagreements among EU partners persist on issues of UN legality, NATO-neutrality and the geographic deployment of missions. This lack of consensus is due to a lack of common ideas, values and practices regarding the use of police and military force in Europe. In short: there is no common strategic culture.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

11007. Job quality and labour market performance

Author:
Christine Erhel and Mathilde Guergoat-Larivière
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Job quality is a multidimensional concept that can be defined using four main dimensions and measured through indicators such as the so-called 'Laeken' indicators. The empirical analysis of job quality in Europe leads to three main types of result. First, it reveals important differences across countries, with four main regimes prevalent in Europe. Second, it supports the hypothesis that a higher level of job quality is associated with better labour market and economic performance. Finally, it emphasises the heterogeneity of quality across social groups, especially according to gender, age, and education.
Topic:
Social Stratification and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Europe

11008. Beyond Flexibility and Security: A composite indicator of flexicurity

Author:
Ilaria Maselli
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
'Flexicurity' might be defined as a mix of flexible contractual arrangements, income support measures, active labour market policies and lifelong learning. The successful shift in approach of the Danish and Dutch labour markets from passive to active labour market policies, and to flexicurity, has attracted considerable attention among academics and policy-makers. The objective of this Working Document is to contribute to the debate with the creation of a composite indicator to measure flexicurity, based on the definition provided in the European Commission's Communication on Flexicurity (COM(2007)359). Our indicator confirms that preferences in the balance of flexibility and security are highly heterogeneous among countries; a finding that supports the 'pathway' approach as proposed by the European Commission. A second important conclusion is that the idea of flexibility being in favour of employers and security being in favour of employees needs to be overcome. Flexicurity is 'both for both', although it does not apply uniformly to all age groups but is two and three times greater for older and younger workers respectively.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Europe

11009. The Foreign Policy of the EU in the Palestinian Territory

Author:
Rouba Al-Fattal
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Fifteen years after its launch, the impact of the Barcelona Process on the Palestinian Territories is in need of a reassessment. Despite some initial improvements in the political and economic structures, the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership alone has failed to anchor a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians. In response, the European Neighbourhood Policy was launched to bring out a number of new foreign policy instruments, which induced substantial reforms. Yet the win by Hamas in the 2006 elections brought a halt to the EU's aid and diplomacy. This boycott proved detrimental, as it widened the rift between the main parties to the point of no reconciliation. Whether the Union for the Mediterranean proves any better than its predecessor policies in the region remains to be seen. This publication aims at providing a broad picture of the EU's policies towards the Palestinian Territories, in order to draw lessons from them and offer proposals for the way ahead.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

11010. On High Stakes, Stakeholders and Bulgaria's EU Membership

Author:
Antoinette Primatarova
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper argues against the view that Bulgaria's EU accession was premature and that the mechanism for cooperation and the verification of progress (CVM) is not delivering. The EU's continued leverage and the efficacy of the CVM are explained in a framework that goes beyond the dual-conditionality paradigm of incentives and sanctions, and beyond the unitary players model of EU–Bulgarian relations. In this framework, the CVM is viewed as an instrument for supportive reinforcement rather than for the imposition of sanctions. Furthermore, it is seen as targeting not just the government, but all Bulgarian stakeholders. The CVM is regarded as very effective at the level of public opinion and civil society, and as a mechanism that contributes to 'sandwiching' reform-reluctant Bulgarian governments between pressure from Brussels and domestic pressure for reforms. The CVM is also deemed useful for Bulgaria's further Europeanisation beyond the narrower pre-accession phase of 'EU-isation'. The paper suggests that eventual post-accession benchmarks might be appropriate in the process of further EU enlargement if properly understood as instruments for granting support and if discussed broadly with stakeholders beyond the executive. Concerning the efficiency/legitimacy dilemma, it is asserted that the CVM is an opportunity for increasing the EU's legitimacy.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Bulgaria

11011. Back to Basics: The UN and crisis diplomacy in an age of strategic uncertainty

Author:
Richard Gowan and Bruce D. Jones
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Conflict prevention is getting harder. In an increasingly complex international order, tensions between major powers complicate efforts to avert or mitigate civil wars. There has been a proliferation of potential mediators including regional organizations, individual governments and non-governmental organizations—often bringing specific expertise and political leverage to emerging crises, but risking duplication and turf wars. But while the United Nations is constrained by tensions among member states and challenged by the array of alternative institutions, it still has an important role in prevention. The UN has a unique “reach” into many unstable countries through its aid and development networks. Whatever the internal and external limitations on the UN, there is a widespread expectation that the Secretary-General and his officials can and should intervene in escalating crises, either to halt violence or at least to limit the suffering that it causes.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Peace Studies, and United Nations

11012. The African Union in Darfur: Understanding the afro-arab response to the crisis

Author:
A. Sarjoh Bah
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Darfur, an arid region in western Sudan, has become synonymous with genocide, though many have been reluctant to describe the situation there in such terms, not least the African Union (AU). As the conflict between Government of Sudan and the Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) raged on for over two decades, long-standing tensions in Darfur were neglected. Meanwhile, negotiations led by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) culminated in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in January 2005, marking the end of Africa's longest running civil war; a conflict that had claimed the lives of approximately two million people and displaced millions more. However, the marginalisation of Darfur meant that the celebrations marking the end of the north-south conflict were short-lived, as news of mass murder involving government soldiers and their infamous militia allies, the Janjaweed, eclipsed the much celebrated deal. In Darfur, the Government and Janjaweed were pitted against the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), the two groups that had taken up arms against the Islamist government in early 2003.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Peace Studies, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Middle East, and Arabia

11013. Preparing For A Second Nuclear Age

Author:
Ian Johnstone, Christine Wing, Bruce Jones, Elsina Wainwright, and Fiona Simpson
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
At the time of finalizing this report, the US and Russia have signed an agreement on a replacement to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), just days before the opening of a high-level Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, D.C. After years of divisiveness and lack of progress, it is tempting to conclude that the nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament regime is on the upswing.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia and Washington

11014. Les usages pratiques du patriotisme en Russie

Author:
Myriam Désert, Marlène Laruelle, Françoise Daucé, Anne Le Huérou, and Kathy Rousselet
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Since the second half of the 1990s, the theme of national revival crystallized in Russia, notably in the form of a promotion of patriotism. The apparent convergence between an offer “from above” and a demand “from below” supports the idea that there exists a kind of patriotic consensus in Russia. This new tense and autarchic fusion between state and society summons old stereotypes about Russo- Soviet culture. This issue of Questions of Research seeks to go back over these stereotypes in order to show the diversity of “patriotic” practices in Russia today (which widely surpass the “militarist” variant generally evoked) and the connected social uses that are made of it. Following an overview of the existing literature on Russian nationalism and patriotism, as well as a presentation of the patriotic education curricula being implemented by the Russian state, our study on “patriotic” practices continues through several points of observation (patriotic summer clubs and camps for children and adolescents in Saint- Petersburg, Moscow and Omsk; ethno-cultural organizations; Orthodox religious organizations; and the discursive practices of economic actors). The examination of these different terrains reveals the diversity of everyday “patriotic” activities; and illustrates their utilization to multipleends (pragmatic concern for one's professional career, search for a personal source of inspiration, opportunities for enrichment, pleasure of undertaking activities with one's friend and relations…). In the end, these fieldwork surveys reveal motivations and commitments in which official patriotic discourse and the image of state are oft en secondary, sometimes even denied.
Topic:
Education, Politics, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Russia

11015. Marché, bureaucratie, formes de la domination politique: Une économie politique weberienne

Author:
François Bafoil
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
From a broad perspective, political economy analyses economic and political exchanges proper to some social groups, embedded in particular historical periods. The great innovation of Max Weber's analysis is to highlight the intersubjective orientations that support these exchanges and characterize a particular period of history. This study firstly compares different features between free market economy and the soviet-type economy. Secondly, it measures their difference in accordance to the "ideal type" of "market", bureaucracy" and "forms of domination". Finally, it insists on the particular "hybrid" figures of "charisma" and "patrimonial bureaucracy".
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Political Economy, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

11016. Security Sector Reform in Central Asia: Exploring Needs and Possibilities

Author:
Merijn Hartog, editor
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:
The Central Asian region faces a broad spectrum of security challenges. These range from religious terrorism, organised crime and simmering ethnic quarrels to endemic corruption, environmental decline and a disintegrating infrastructure. What is more, the danger of instability is heightened by unchecked authoritarianism in all five countries and a lurking receptiveness to religious extremism among returned migrants, mainly from Russia. How to deal with such diverse challenges in an effective and comprehensive way should be a pressing concern, not only for the five countries of Central Asia, but also for the entire international community.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Crime
Political Geography:
Russia and Central Asia

11017. The Taliban Beyond the Pashtuns

Author:
Antonio Giustozzi
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Although the Taliban remain a largely Pashtun movement in terms of their composition, they have started making significant inroads among other ethnic groups. In many cases, the Taliban have co-opted, in addition to bandits, disgruntled militia commanders previously linked to other organizations, and the relationship between them is far from solid. There is also, however, emerging evidence of grassroots recruitment of small groups of ideologically committed Uzbek, Turkmen and Tajik Taliban. While even in northern Afghanistan the bulk of the insurgency is still Pashtun, the emerging trend should not be underestimated.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

11018. The G20 Framework for Strong, Sustainable And Balanced Growth: A Study in Credible Cooperation

Author:
Daniel Schwanen
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The G20 has launched far-ranging reforms of economic governance institutions and the manner in which key economies should cooperate in the future. Its ambitious aim is not only to stabilize the world economy following the economic crisis of 2007-09, but also to anticipate and, as far as possible, prevent future crises and foster sustainable growth going forward. A central element of the promised reform is the “Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth,” introduced at the 2009 summit in Pittsburgh, in which the G20 agreed to accept joint and individual responsibility for the health of the global economy. By specifying the key elements of growth, agreeing to assess their policies mutually with the help of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other institutions and agreeing to discuss actions required in light of these assessments, the G20 leaders have launched a potentially effective vehicle for delivering on their promises.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis

11019. Approaches to Fostering Productivity Growth in Brazil, China and India

Author:
John Whalley, Manmohan Agarwal, and Yao Li
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Productivity growth is a significant contributor to GDP growth, particularly to increases in per capita income. However, there is considerable ambiguity regarding how to measure the concept of technical progress, and consequently on policies that would foster productivity growth. Brazil, China and India, three important emerging economies, are seeking to foster productivity growth through encouraging innovation and technology transfers from the more developed economies. But given the ambiguities about how to encourage innovation and technology transfers, governments in these countries adopted a plethora of policies in the hope that the combination will be effective. This ambiguity can also be seen in the much slower growth of productivity in Brazil than China, even though Brazil has scored higher on the World Bank's Knowledge Assessment Methodology.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Markets, Science and Technology, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China, India, and Brazil

11020. Shaping the G20 Agenda in Asia: The 2010 Seoul Summit

Author:
Il SaKong
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
This year marks a major transition for the G20, which was designated as the world's “premier forum for inter-national economic cooperation” at the Summit in Pitts-burgh in November 2009. Two summits will be held in 2010—in Toronto in June and in Seoul in November—as leaders continue to grapple with the global economic crisis. As the host of the first G20 Summit in Asia, Korea understands that the results of 2010 will be central to establishing the credibility and effectiveness of the G20 process. The summits need to ensure that agreements made at previous meetings are followed through and that clear policy directions are set for strong, sustainable, and balanced global growth after the crisis.
Political Geography:
Asia and Korea

11021. Confronting Environmental Treaty Implementation Challenges in the Pacific Islands

Author:
Pamela S. Chasek
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The Pacific is at the crossroads of all environmental and sustainable development issues. It is one of the richest areas of the world in terms of biodiversity, yet it is also one of the most fragile and vulnerable regions. Problems are so large that none of the Pacific Island states or territories can respond to them alone. As a result, regional cooperation, mutual aid between states, and the pooling of energies and ideas are necessary.
Topic:
Environment and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Island

11022. The Cybersecurity Agenda: Mobilizing for International Action

Author:
Kamlesh Bajaj
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Cyberspace comprises IT networks, computer resources, and all the fixed and mobile devices connected to the global Internet. A nation's cyberspace is part of the global cyberspace; it cannot be isolated to define its boundaries since cyberspace is borderless. This is what makes cyberspace unique. Unlike the physical world that is limited by geographical boundaries in space—land, sea, river waters, and air—cyberspace can and is continuing to expand. Increased Internet penetration is leading to growth of cyberspace, since its size is proportional to the activities that are carried through it.
Topic:
Crime, Globalization, Science and Technology, and Terrorism

11023. Navigating Climate Change: An Agenda for U.S.-Chinese Cooperation

Author:
Jacqueline McLaren Miller and Piin-Fen Kok
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Between June 2009 and January 2010, the East West Institute (EWI) began exploring how the United States, China, and the international community could build strategic trust through cooperation on climate change and climate security. EWI examined this issue through policy discussions in several forums: Track 2 processes such as the U.S.-China High Level Security Dialogue and the U.S.-China-Europe Trialogue21 initiative; a roundtable session in New York; and the U.S.-China Working Group on Climate Change—a group of Chinese and American experts convened with the support of the Connect U.S. Fund who met before and after Copenhagen to assess progress and to determine ways to move forward.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, New York, and Europe

11024. Global Cyber Deterrence Views from China, the U.S., Russia, India, and Norway

Author:
Andrew Nagorski(ed.)
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
In the wake of the financial crisis, organizations everywhere have looked to the third revolution in information technology to upgrade their infrastructure and spur a new round of growth. The damage caused by cyber crimes and cyber attacks, however, is at the same time growing increasingly serious. As we face a looming “cyber cold war” and a “cyber arms race,” vital individual, business, and even national interests are threatened. At the same time, faith in information technology and information networks continues to slip. As a result, seeking effective ways to counter cyber threats has become an urgent priority across the globe.
Topic:
Security, Globalization, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, India, and Norway

11025. Making the Most of Afghanistan's River Basins

Author:
Benjamin Sturtewagen and Matthew King
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
This paper reflects the discussions at a number of public seminars and private meetings during 2009 on water cooperation in Afghanistan and its region. These meetings, convened by the East West Institute (EWI) in Kabul, Islamabad, Brussels, and Paris, collected the thoughts and recommendations of more than one hundred experts and policy makers from Afghanistan, its neighbors, and the international community. The aim was to facilitate discussion that would lead to new ideas and viable policy options on how to improve regional cooperation on water between Afghanistan and its neighbors.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Paris, Brussels, and Islamabad

11026. Economic Development and Security for Afghanistan

Author:
Guenter Overfeld and Michael Zumot
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Jobs and income generation for Afghan people are two key elements to increase development and achieve stability in Afghanistan. With a jobless rate of 40 percent (out of a total labor force estimated at about 15 million people in 2004) and 44 percent of the population below the age of 14, the issue is of paramount importance. Jobs and income generation are also relevant for the international community's efforts to tackle the Taliban insurgency in the near term. Given the widely accepted position that many “rank and file” Taliban fighters are “Taliban for economic reasons” they should be open to reintegration where economic opportunities are created. The upcoming London conference on Afghanistan on January 28 will see Afghanistan's president unveil a plan to offer jobs, education, pensions and land to Taliban fighters who lay down their weapons as part of the reconciliation and reintegration plan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Taliban, and London

11027. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty: New Technology, New Prospects?

Author:
Jacqueline McLaren Miller
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The following report, based on a workshop convened by the EastWest Institute, is an assessment of technical advances related to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the future of the CTBT in the United States. The report highlights key changes since the Senate failed to ratify the Treaty in 1999 and offers recommendations for the Obama administration and others in advance of an anticipated 2010 Senate debate on CTBT ratification.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States

11028. The Design and Effects of Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan African Countries

Author:
Mohsin S. Khan
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Since the 1990s there have been a number of major changes in the design and conduct of monetary policy. In a globalized environment, there is less time to adjust to shocks and greater need to achieve closer convergence of economic performance among trading partners. As a result, a number of developing countries have adopted exchange rate regimes with more flexibility, and thereby greater scope for monetary policy. Notable examples include a number of sub-Saharan African countries moving from fixed exchange-rate regimes to more flexible regimes and the adoption of formal or informal inflation targeting regimes by some of these countries. These changes have triggered considerable debate on how monetary policy should be conducted and the effects it has on the real economy.
Topic:
Economics and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Africa

11029. Wholesalers and Retailers in US Trade

Author:
J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, Peter K. Schott, and Stephen J. Redding
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
International trade models typically assume that producers in one country trade directly with final consumers in another. In reality, of course, trade can involve long chains of potentially independent actors who move goods through wholesale and retail distribution networks. These networks likely affect the magnitude and nature of trade frictions and hence both the pattern of trade and its welfare gains. To promote further understanding of the means by which goods move across borders, this paper examines the extent to which US exports and imports flow through wholesalers and retailers versus producing and consuming firms.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

11030. US Trade and Wages: The Misleading Implications of Conventional Trade Theory

Author:
Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Conventional trade theory, which combines the Heckscher-Ohlin theory and the Stolper-Samuelson theorem, implies that expanded trade between developed and developing countries will increase wage equality in the former. This theory is widely applied. It serves as the basis for estimating the impact of trade on wages using two-sector simulation models and the net factor content of trade. It leads naturally to the presumption that the rapid growth and declining relative prices of US manufactured imports from developing countries since the 1990s have been a powerful source of increased US wage inequality.
Topic:
Economics, Political Theory, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States

11031. Do Developed and Developing Countries Compete Head to Head in High Tech?

Author:
Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Concerns that growth in developing countries could worsen the US terms of trade and that increased US trade with developing countries will increase US wage inequality both implicitly reflect the assumption that goods produced in the United States and developing countries are close substitutes and that specialization is incomplete. In this paper we show on the contrary that there are distinctive patterns of international specialization and that developed and developing countries export fundamentally different products, especially those classified as high tech. Judged by export shares, the United States and developing countries specialize in quite different product categories that, for the most part, do not overlap. Moreover, even when exports are classified in the same category, there are large and systematic differences in unit values that suggest the products made by developed and developing countries are not very close substitutes—developed country products are far more sophisticated.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States

11032. The Realities and Relevance of Japan's Great Recession: Neither Ran nor Rashomon

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Japan's Great Recession was the result of a series of macroeconomic and financial policy mistakes. Thus, it was largely avoidable once the initial shock from the bubble bursting had passed. The aberration in Japan's recession was not the behaviour of growth, which is best seen as a series of recoveries aborted by policy errors. Rather, the surprise was the persistent steadiness of limited deflation, even after recovery took place. This is a more fundamental challenge to our basic macroeconomic understanding than is commonly recognized. The UK and US economies are at low risk of having recurrent recessions through macroeconomic policy mistakes—but deflation itself cannot be ruled out. The United Kingdom worryingly combines a couple of financial parallels to Japan with far less room for fiscal action to compensate for them than Japan had. Also, Japan did not face poor prospects for external demand and the need to reallocate productive resources across export sectors during its Great Recession. Many economies do now face this challenge simultaneously, which may limit the pace of, and their share in, the global recovery.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and United Kingdom

11033. Toward a Sunny Future? Global Integration in the Solar PV Industry

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Thilo Hanemann, Lutz Weischer, and Matt Miller
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Policymakers seem to face a trade-off when designing national trade and investment policies related to clean energy sectors. They have pledged to address climate change and accelerate the large-scale deployment of renewable energy technologies, which would benefit from increased global integration, but they are also tempted to nurture and protect domestic clean technology markets to create green jobs at home and ensure domestic political support for more ambitious climate policies. This paper analyzes the global integration of the solar photovoltaic (PV) sector and looks in detail at the industry's recent growth patterns, industry cost structure, trade and investment patterns, government support policies and employment generation potential. In order to further stimulate both further growth of the solar industry and local job creation without constructing new trade and investment barriers, we recommend the following: Governments must provide sufficient and predictable long-term support to solar energy deployment. Such long-term frameworks bring investments forward and encourage cost cutting and innovation, so that government support can decrease over time. A price on carbon emissions would provide an additional long-term market signal and likely accelerate this process. Policymakers should focus not on solely the manufacturing jobs in the solar industry, but on the total number of jobs that could possibly be created including those in research, project development, installation, operations and maintenance. Global integration and broader solar PV technology deployment through lower costs can be encouraged by keeping global solar PV markets open. Protectionist policies risk slowing the development of global solar markets and provoking retaliatory actions in other sectors. Lowering existing trade barriers—by abolishing tariffs, reducing non-tariff barriers and harmonizing industry standards—would create a positive policy environment for further global integration.
Topic:
Climate Change, Globalization, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance

11034. Excessive Volatility in Capital Flows: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach

Author:
Olivier Jeanne and Anton Korinek
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper analyzes prudential controls on capital flows to emerging markets from the perspective of a Pigouvian tax that addresses externalities associated with the deleveraging cycle. It presents a model in which restricting capital inflows during boom times reduces the potential outflows during busts. This mitigates the feedback effects of deleveraging episodes, when tightening financial constraints on borrowers and collapsing prices for collateral assets have mutually reinforcing effects. In our model, capital controls reduce macroeconomic volatility and increase standard measures of consumer welfare.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis

11035. The Margins of US Trade

Author:
J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, Peter K. Schott, and Stephen J. Redding
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Recent research in international trade emphasizes the importance of firms' extensive margins for understanding overall patterns of trade as well as how firms respond to specific events such as trade liberalization. In this paper, we use detailed US trade statistics to provide a broad overview of how the margins of trade contribute to variation in US imports and exports across trading partners, types of trade (i.e., arm's length versus related party) and both short and long time horizons. Among other results, we highlight the differential behavior of related-party and arm's-length trade in response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

11036. Intra-Firm Trade and Product Contractibility

Author:
J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, Peter K. Schott, and Stephen J. Redding
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines the determinants of intra-firm trade in US imports using detailed country-product data. We create a new measure of product contractibility based on the degree of intermediation in international trade for the product. We find important roles for the interaction of country and product characteristics in determining intra-firm trade shares. Intra-firm trade is high for products with low levels of contractibility sourced from countries with weak governance, for skill-intensive products from skill-scarce countries, and for capital-intensive products from capital-abundant countries.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

11037. Economic Crime and Punishment in North Korea

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The penal system has played a central role in the North Korean government's response to the country's profound economic and social changes. As the informal market economy has expanded, so have the scope of economic crimes. Two refugee surveys—one conducted in China, one in South Korea—document that the regime disproportionately targets politically suspect groups, particularly those involved in market-oriented economic activities. Levels of violence and deprivation do not appear to differ substantially between the infamous political prison camps, penitentiaries for felons, and labor camps used to incarcerate individuals for a growing number of economic crimes. Such a system may also reflect ulterior motives. High levels of discretion with respect to arrest and sentencing and very high costs of detention, arrest, and incarceration encourage bribery; the more arbitrary and painful the experience with the penal system, the easier it is for officials to extort money for avoiding it. These characteristics not only promote regime maintenance through intimidation, but may facilitate predatory corruption as well.
Topic:
Crime, Economics, Markets, and Prisons/Penal Systems
Political Geography:
North Korea

11038. Bridging Thailand's Deep Divide

Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The protracted struggle between the royalist establishment and those allied with ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has left Thailand deeply polarised. It sparked the most violent political confrontations in recent times, killing people, injuring nearly 2,000 and inflicting deep wounds on the national psyche. The government of Abhisit Vejjajiva's unilateral offer of a “road map” to national reconciliation will lead nowhere without the participation of its opposition, including his deposed predecessor. A credible investigation of the violence, enduring legal reforms, and properly addressing societal inequities cannot succeed without the Thaksin-aligned Red Shirt movement. This cannot happen if its leaders are detained, marginalised, or on the run. Fresh elections that are peace­ful, fair and accepted by all sides will be the first test to see if the country is back on track or has lost its way. Thailand should lift the emergency decree imposed over large swathes of the country or risk further damaging its democracy, hindering much needed reconciliation, and sowing the seeds of future deadly conflict.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

11039. Cameroun : les dangers d'un regime en pleine fracture

Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After 28 years of the Biya presidency, Cameroon faces potential instability in the run up to the presidential elections scheduled for late 2011. Constitutional and legal uncertainty; rivalries between the regime's leading figures; the government's attempts to control the electoral process; the rupture of the political contract between leaders and the population; widespread poverty and frustration; extensive corruption; and the frustration of a large part of the army all point to the possibility of a major crisis. To escape this Biya and his government must restore the independence of the body responsible for elections; institutionalise an impartial fight against corruption and ensure the military's political neutrality. They must also urgently establish the institutions envisaged by the 1996 constitution, so that a power vacuum and the potential for violence can be avoided in the event of a transition, including an unexpected one such as the death of the 77-year-old president in office. Cameroon's most influential partners, particularly France and the U.S., should actively support such measures to avoid unrest.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Politics, and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:
Africa

11040. Guatemala: Squeezed between Crime and Impunity

Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The 1996 peace accords formally ended Guatemala's civil war but failure to address the conflict's root causes and dismantle clandestine security apparatuses has weakened its institutions and opened the door to skyrocketing violent crime. Guatemala is one of the world's most dangerous countries, with some 6,500 murders in 2009, more than the average yearly killings during the civil war and roughly twice Mexico's homicide rate. Under heavy pressure at home, Mexican drug traffickers have moved into Guatemala to compete for control of Andean cocaine transiting to the U.S. The UN-sanctioned International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) has brought hope by making some progress at getting a handle on high-level corruption. However, in June 2010 its Spanish director, Carlos Castresana, resigned saying the government had not kept its promise to support CICIG's work and reform the justice system. President Álvaro Colom needs to consolidate recent gains with institutional reform, anti-corruption measures, vetting mechanisms and a more inclusive political approach, including to indigenous peoples.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, and Crime
Political Geography:
Latin America

11041. South Ossetia: The Burden of Recognition

Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
South Ossetia is no closer to genuine independence now than in August 2008, when Russia went to war with Georgia and extended recognition. The small, rural territory lacks even true political, economic or military autonomy. Moscow staffs over half the government, donates 99 per cent of the budget and provides security. South Ossetians themselves often urge integration into the Russian Federation, and their entity's situation closely mirrors that of Russia's North Caucasus republics. Regardless of the slow pace of post-conflict reconstruction, extensive high-level corruption and dire socio-economic indicators, there is little interest in closer ties with Georgia. Moscow has not kept important ceasefire commitments, and some 20,000 ethnic Georgians from the region remain forcibly displaced. At a minimum, Russians, Ossetians and Georgians need to begin addressing the local population's basic needs by focusing on creating freedom of movement and economic and humanitarian links without status preconditions.
Topic:
Political Violence, Humanitarian Aid, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

11042. Ghosts of crises past: Comparing Japanese policy effectiveness in the 1970s oil crises and contemporary climate change

Author:
Alexandru Luta
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Due to the immense strain they put on policymakers, the oil crises of the 1970s and the contemporary challenge of anthropogenic global warming must represent two of the greatest tests of Japanese energy policy of the past 50 years. As such, the policy response to the oil crises had been effective, but the challenges posed by global warming have not been met with equal success–and this situation partly stems from the measures adopted in response to the previous crisis.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Japan

11043. The political constraints on Russia's economic development: The visionary zeal of technological modernization and its critics

Author:
Katri Pynnöniemi
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
To understand the political constraints on Russia's economic development, three dimensions should be explored simultaneously. The relations between Russia and the outside world (where Russia stands in comparison to others, and what it is prepared to do to advance its position), Russia's relations with its own past (the evolution of the Muscovite matrix), and the relations between ideas and political action (“the practical value of ideas in solving political dilemmas”). In this paper I will briefly discuss the first two aspects and then focus more closely on the third.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
Russia

11044. The evolving post-crisis world

Author:
Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The worst of the global financial crisis (GFC) is over, but it has left scars, principally in the form of fiscallydriven debt increases, balance sheets that still need repair and high unemployment in the principal crisis countries. There is also unfinished business from the precrisis period, in the form of external imbalances. More positively, the crisis offers lessons about economic policymaking that may improve the way things are done. Of course the main lessons are for the developed countries that were at the centre of the crisis. But the countries of the region had to cope with the backwash, and in doing so lessons were learned. In addition, the lessons in the crisis countries, learned in an environment of extreme stress, may have relevance for the emerging market economies of this region.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

11045. The Formation of Preferences in Two-level Games: An Analysis of India's Domestic and Foreign Energy Policy

Author:
Joachim Betz and Melanie Hanif
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper examines the formation of India's energy‐policy strategy as an act of doubleedged diplomacy. After developing an analytical framework based on the two‐level game approach to international relations (IR), it focuses on the domestic context of policy preference formation. India's energy strategy is shaped by a shortage of energy and the scarcity of indigenous reserves; these problems have together resulted in agrowing import dependence in order to sustain economic growth rates, outdated cross‐subsidies, overregulation, and nontransparent bureaucratic structures which are adverse to private investment. The Indian government still dominates the energy sector, but large electoral constituencies within the country exert a considerable indirect influence. The paper analyzes how all these domestic necessities combine with India's general foreign policy goals and traditions to form an overall energy strategy. We finally discuss how this strategy plays out in a competitive international environment where global resources are shrinking (with most claims already distributed) and environmental concerns are on the rise.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Environment, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
India

11046. Covering Corruption: The Difficulties of Trying to Make a Difference

Author:
Rosemary Armao
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
It is often taken for granted that a free press shining a light on wrongdoing is the way to ntrol corruption. The World Bank, with an eye to the economic potential of honest government, promotes this, as do United Nations agencies and the U.S. and European governments, which spend millions of dollars to develop media with corruption-fighting power. And brave journalists have endured threats and attacks and have even died reporting about corruption. In June and July of 2010 alone, three Philippino and a Greek journalist-working in different media and on different topics, but all exposing corruption-were gunned down. Covering corruption is more dangerous than covering war.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Development, Mass Media, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

11047. The Lisbon enigma: crisis management and coherence in the European Union

Author:
Federico Santopinto
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Before the adoption of the Treaty of Lisbon, the several crisis management tools at the European Union's disposal were divided between two institutions: the European Commission and the European Council. The commission represented the community (the first pillar), and the council the intergovernmental systems (the second pillar). The creation of a new post of High Representative of the Union and the institution of a new External Action Service are intended to put an end to this commission-council dualism. The target of the reforms is clear: providing the EU with the capacity to adopt a comprehensive approach linking its several assets (including the military one) under a common, coherent, crisis management approach.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

11048. Conference report: New Power Relations in Latin America and their Global Influence

Author:
Augusto Varas
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Significant changes have taken place in the distribution of political power in Latin American countries over the past decade, at both national and hemispheric level. A growing trend toward trans-regionalisation is evident in the political and trade relations of these countries. Changes in regional power dynamics have been further hastened as Latin American countries have distanced themselves from the United States. Moreover, the weakness of US hemispheric policy, resulting from the loss of strategic regional influence, has been compounded by the political and ideological changes in Latin America over the past decade.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Globalization, Political Economy, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

11049. The Arab State: Assisting or Obstructing Development?

Author:
Paul Salem
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Good governance is key to improving peoples' lives; but the Arab world falls short on many governance indicators. Most Arab states remain highly authoritarian, although there is a growing dynamism in civil society and among opposition parties, both secular and Islamist. Problems in governance have impeded development in the Arab world and limited the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

11050. Building Cooperation in the Eastern Middle East

Author:
Paul Salem
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As a long-standing order breaks down, Turkey, Iran, and the Arab states of the Levant and the Gulf face both new competition and fresh opportunities for cooperation. The implosion of Iraq in the wake of the 2003 invasion removed an important buffer state, drawing Turkey, Iran, and the Arab states closer, creating friction between them, but also new common interests. The planned U.S. withdrawal from Iraq will force Iraq's neighbors to find new ways of managing those interests.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries