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10901. Dilemmas of Brazilian Grand Strategy

Author:
Hal Brands
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
This monograph analyzes Brazilian grand strategy under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. During Lula's nearly 8 years in office, he has pursued a multipronged grand strategy aimed at hastening the transition from unipolarity and Western economic hegemony to a multipolar order in which international rules, norms, and institutions are more favorable to Brazilian interests. Lula has done so by emphasizing three diplomatic strategies: soft balancing against the United States, building coalitions to magnify Brazilian negotiating power, and seeking to position Brazil as the leader of a more united South America.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Brazil, South America, and Latin America

10902. Crime and Insurgency in the Tribal Areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:
Gretchen Peters
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Insurgent and terror groups operating in the tribal areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan are deepening their involvement in organized crime, an aspect of the conflict that at once presents enormous challenges and also potential opportunities for Coalition forces trying to implement a population‐centric counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy. Within a realm of poor governance and widespread state corruption, anti‐state actors engage in and protect organized crime—mainly smuggling, extortion and kidnapping—both to raise funds and also to spread fear and insecurity, thus slowing the pace of development and frustrating attempts to extend the rule of law and establish a sustainable licit economy. Militant groups on either side of the frontier function like a broad network of criminal gangs, not just in terms of the activities in which they engage, but also in the way they are organized, how funds flow through their command chains and how they interact—and sometimes fight—with each other. There is no doubt that militant groups have capitalized on certain public grievances, yet their ties to criminal profiteering, along with the growing number of civilian casualties they cause on both sides of the frontier, have simultaneously contributed to a widening sense of anger and frustration among local communities. Through a series of focused and short anecdotal case studies, this paper aims to map out how key groups engage in criminal activity in strategic areas, track how involvement in illicit activity is deepening or changing and illustrate how insurgent and terror groups impose themselves on local communities as they spread to new territory. It is hoped that a closer examination of this phenomenon will reveal opportunities for disrupting the problem, as well as illustrate how Coalition forces, the international community and moderate Muslim leaders might capitalize on an untapped public relations opportunity by better protecting local communities who are the main victims of it.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Afghanistan

10903. Victim and rebel: Al-Qaida's salafist rhetoric and the pitfalls of anti-terrorism

Author:
Lars Erslev Andersen
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Following the July 2005 London terrorist attacks the focus of anti-terrorism efforts has moved towards radicalisation within European societies and away from the conflicts in the Middle East and South Asia. This report argues that this shift in focus is based on a misconstrual of al-Qaida as it mistakes effect for cause. Based on an examination of the communication strategy of al-Qaida and the political rhetoric of Salafism the need for an analysis of militant Salafism in its political and societal context is demonstrated. The radicalisation theory is criticised and it is argued that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the increased focus on efforts to counter radicalisation within European societies more or less have failed because al-Qaida has been able to exploit this strategy and reorganise itself around an operational centre in Pakistan. The report concludes that only politically viable solutions in South Asia and the Middle East can effectively suppress al-Qaida and militant Salafism.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Mass Media, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Europe, South Asia, and Middle East

10904. Some of the Best Weapons for Counterinsurgents Do Not Shoot

Author:
Eric T. Olson
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
If the U.S. Army's current experience in ongoing overseas operations like those in Iraq and Afghanistan are any indication, reconstruction has become an integral part of the American way of war. And judging from the disappointing results of reconstruction efforts in these operations, measured mostly in terms of the effect that such efforts have had on the course of these wars, there is much lacking in the Army's understanding of reconstruction itself and the role that it will likely play in all future operations, especially in counterinsurgencies (COIN).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

10905. An Army Transformed: The U.S. Army's Post-Vietnam Recovery and the Dynamics of Change in Military Organizations

Author:
Suzanne C. Nielsen
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
During the 2 decades preceding the Persian Gulf War in 1991, the U.S. Army went through tremendous reform and rejuvenation. It recovered from the Vietnam War, transitioned to an all-volunteer personnel model, and refocused on a potential future war against a very capable adversary in Europe. The Army's transformation was evident to external observers: from being seen as an organization in distress in the early 1970s, by 1991 the Army became an organization whose professionalism was the source of admiration. Drawing on the relevant literature, the author seeks to explain this important case of military change.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Vietnam

10906. Somalia: Line in the Sand--Identification of MYM Vulnerabilities

Author:
Eloy E. Cuevas and Madeleine Wells
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The influence of Islam on governance and clan politics has both negatively and positively affected the people of Somalia. It has facilitated justifying the removal of national, regional, and grassroots or clan leadership, especially if socioeconomic conditions and quality of life standards have been degraded or the leadership failed to ensure the safety of the people. Additionally, charismatic clan leaders have leveraged the low level of education among the Somali population to incite leadership changes. On a positive note, enforcement of Islamic law (Sharia) has been a major factor in helping to stabilize the lawlessness that has gone unchecked throughout the ungoverned parts of Somalia. By establishing courts and increasing the appointment of judges, Islamic leaders have attempted to bring normalcy to people's daily lives, amid all the street-level battles, clan intra and interconnected struggles for leadership and influence, and the presence of foreign fighters on both sides of the conflict.
Topic:
Diplomacy, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa

10907. U.S. Military Forces and Police Assistance in Stability Operations: The Least-Worst Option to Fill the U.S. Capacity Gap

Author:
Dennis E Keller
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Establishing an effective local police force is one of the most critical elements of successful counterinsurgency (COIN) and stability operations, but it is a task for which the U.S. Government is the least prepared and capable. The establishment of an effective police force is critical to security sector reform, justice sector reform, and the successful transition to the host nation's security forces. But the United States lacks the institutional capacity to provide an immediate and coordinated civilian police training and advisory effort, particularly in a failed or fragile state. Because hesitation in addressing such problems causes delays in forming and training new police forces, and, even worse, emboldens corrupt and abusive locals who enable insurgents, terrorist groups, and organized criminal networks, the U.S. military must be prepared to support stability operations at regional level and below by assessing, advising, and even training police units until such time as civilian police trainers and mentors arrive on the ground.
Topic:
Crime, Counterinsurgency, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
United States

10908. Chinese Energy Security: The Myth of the PLAN's Frontline Status

Author:
Ryan Clarke
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
This monograph examines the dynamics of China's energy security dilemma and the role of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). Following this, PLAN development is discussed, and its future role in regional security is hypothesized. This report argues that it is domestic market inefficiencies and poor management practices that pose the greatest threat to China's energy security. Further, less and less of Chinese energy imports are making their way to the country by sea; thus the PLAN actually has a minimal role to play. Given these realities, Chinese fears of a naval blockade that deprives it of energy supplies as well as American confidence that this is a realistic strategic option in the event of hostilities are implausible. In addition, Beijing's desire to develop aircraft carriers and other high-tech naval capabilities combined with its contribution to the anti-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden have led many analysts to erroneously conclude that China seeks to engage in global power projection like the United States. However, the focus of the PLAN will remain regional and on asymmetric capabilities, namely, the effective use of submarines and other undersea devices that ultimately seek to deter American and possible Japanese involvement in a conflict over Taiwan and/or in the South China Sea, such as the Spratly Islands, which China views as inalienable parts of its territory. Although China's interests are expanding and becoming more international in nature, recovering from the century of humiliation and ensuring domestic legitimacy remain the top priorities of China's leadership.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
China

10909. Assets, Shocks, and Poverty Traps in Rural Mozambique

Author:
Lena Giesbert and Kati Schindler
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Using a micro-level approach to poverty traps, this paper explores welfare dynamics among households in post-war rural Mozambique. Conceptually, the paper builds on an asset-based approach to poverty and tests empirically, with household panel data, for the existence of a poverty trap. Findings indicate that there is little differentiation in productive asset endowments over time and that rural households gravitate towards a single equilibrium, which is at a surprisingly low level. The analysis shows that shocks and household coping behavior help to explain the observed poverty dynamics. The single low-level equilibrium points to an overall development trap in the rural farm-based economy. This is attributed to the long-term impact of the civil war, which has consolidated unfavorable economic conditions in rural areas and limited new economic opportunities outside of the agricultural sector.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

10910. Comprehensive Food Security: An Approach to Sustainably Address Food Insecurity

Author:
Pau Khan Khup Hangzo
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Food security has become one of this century's key global challenges. Given current population and consumption trends, as well as the factors of climate change and resource scarcity, the situation is set to worsen—unless drastic actions are taken. The multi-dimensional nature of the food problem requires a comprehensive approach, one that not only addresses food production and availability but also deals with access issues. Only then can sustainable food security be achieved.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, and Food
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10911. The Development of a Gulf Carbon Platform: Mapping out the Gulf Cooperation Council Carbon Exchange

Author:
Justin Dargin
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have some of the highest greenhouse gas emissions rates per capita in the world. This paper argues that in spite of the extremely high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rates, GCC members will benefit economically, environmentally and geopolitically by constructing a harmonized pan-GCC carbon trading platform that will allow them to make cost-efficient decisions about greenhouse gas abatement. A thorough analysis is undertaken to determine which GHG abatement mechanism would be the best suited for the GCC, with maximum cost and environmental benefits. Based on the unique characteristics of the GCC members, a pan-GCC cap-and-trade framework is suggested. Optimally, policy makers would institute it in a phased, voluntary introduction, to be gradually replaced by a mandatory scheme. If the GCC countries implement such a system, they would be able to rationalize their energy usage for domestic power production, and conserve their oil and gas production for future generations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Oil
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

10912. Toward Deeper Reductions in U.S. and Russian Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Micah Zenko
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
President Barack Obama has made reductions in the United States' nuclear arsenal and a decreased reliance on nuclear weapons major foreign policy priorities for his administration. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), signed in April 2010 by President Obama and Russia's president, Dmitry Medvedev, represents concrete movement toward these goals—goals that both presidents share. This follow-on accord to the 1991 START Treaty limits the United States and Russia to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear and conventional war - heads, 800 strategic launchers, and 700 deployed strategic missiles and bombers. Yet while the New START Treaty represents a substantial decrease from Cold War levels, the United States will retain around 2,000 deployed strategic and tactical nuclear weapons and Russia will maintain approximately 3,500 deployed strategic and tactical nuclear weapons—which together will constitute over 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

10913. Internet Governance in an Age of Cyber Insecurity

Author:
Robert K. Knake
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The United States is being outmaneuvered in the international forums that will determine the future of the Internet. Led by Russia and China, nondemocratic regimes are organizing into a united front to promote a vision of the Internet that is tightly controlled by states. That vision is increasingly attractive to many Western nations wrestling with interrelated threats of cybercrime, industrial espionage, and cyber warfare. The United States must actively combat these threats while it works to protect U.S. national interests in the preservation and extension of the Internet as a platform for increased efficiency and economic exchange. Protecting this interest requires far more extensive engagement within Internet governance forums to shape the future of the network in a way that addresses security concerns without resulting in a cure that is worse than the disease.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Science and Technology, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and China

10914. Providing Energy Services in a Changing Industry

Author:
James E. Rogers
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
July 1, 2010. Anyone following the path of an electron today could be excused for thinking he or she was in the wrong millennium. “Dinosaurs” still rule the world. Large, central power stations produce the vast majority of electricity. Coal, natural gas, some oil, or uranium enters on one end. Electrons and various other byproducts—some innocuous, most not—leave on the other, pushed over long distances across aging transmission lines. Many get lost along the way.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Globalization, Oil, and Law

10915. The New World of Natural Gas

Author:
John M. Deutch
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The development of natural gas from shale is providing new possibilities for gas use in the United States and throughout the world. The largest conventional natural gas deposits are concentrated in the Middle East and Russia, but unconventional natural gas, including shale, is spread throughout the world, potentially permitting development in many different countries.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Globalization
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Middle East

10916. A Staircase in Nahr El Bared: The Future of Palestinian Refugees in Lebanon

Author:
Nadim Shehadi
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
LEBANON'S RELATIONS WITH Palestinian refugees, one of the most sensitive issues in the country, was put at the forefront of parliamentary and public debates on June 15, 2010, when a series of legislative proposals were presented to re-examine the refugees' legal status and to resolve the issues surrounding their civil rights. It was the culmination of a national discussion that began in 2005, in which a new atmosphere advocating the examination of the refugee issues started to emerge.
Topic:
War and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Lebanon

10917. An Electricity Grid for the 21st Century

Author:
Linda Stuntz and Susan Tomasky
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
For many years, electricity transmission has been designed to provide enough interconnection to provide affordable, reliable supplies of electricity. Recent developments in market mechanisms, technologies and policy goals have begun to pose different requirements on the existing grid system. To meet the needs of all beneficiaries of transmission enhancements, new planning, siting and cost allocation strategies must be implemented.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Industrial Policy

10918. U.S. Strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan

Author:
Richard L. Armitage and Samuel R. Berger
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Al-Qaeda's attack on September 11, 2001, was the deadliest terrorist assault on the United States in history. In the hours and days that followed, Americans learned more about the perpetrators and their links to bases and networks in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Less than a month later, President George W. Bush launched Operation Enduring Freedom. Much changed nearly overnight as the United States focused military, economic, and diplomatic attention squarely on the region for the first time since the end of the Cold War. In Afghanistan, the Taliban regime—al-Qaeda's sympathetic host—was toppled. In Pakistan, the Pervez Musharraf regime was drafted into Washington's Global War on Terror.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States

10919. Catalyzing Support for Small Growing Businesses in Developing Countries: Mapping the Policies of International Development Donors Investors

Author:
Estera Barbarasa
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
This report depicts the landscape of development organizations that fund and support small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in developing countries: multilateral development banks, bilateral government donor agencies, and development finance institutions (DFIs). The report is a new contribution to both the development community, as well as the Aspen Network of Development Entrepreneurs (ANDE). Advocacy and policy work is a strategic priority for ANDE, and the report's findings will enable the Network to understand the international development community and to be more strategic in its approach as it seeks to influence and shape the international development SME agenda.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Third World, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment

10920. Innovations in Cooperation: A Guidebook on Bilateral Agreements to Address Health Worker Migration

Author:
Robert Kapp, Ibadat S. Dhillon, and Margaret E. Clark
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
There is limited international structure to manage the ever important phenomenon of human migration and its associated challenges. This is particularly true with respect to the international migration of health workers, where bilateral agreements between sending and receiving nations have been repeatedly and urgently called for in the context of a global health workforce crisis. There remains, however, significant lack of clarity on the precise role, form, and content bilateral agreements should take to serve a health-related purpose. This Guidebook, including presentation of two model bilateral agreements, aims to provide guidance to further international cooperation around the critical and highly sensitive area of health worker migration.
Topic:
Health, International Cooperation, and Health Care Policy

10921. Congress and National Security

Author:
Kay King
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Much has been written, blogged, and broadcast in the past several years about the dysfunction of the U.S. Congress. Filibusters, holds, and poison pill amendments have become hot topics, albeit intermittently, as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have increasingly exploited these tactics in pursuit of partisan or personal ends. Meanwhile, such pressing national issues as deficit reduction, immigration reform, and climate change have gone unresolved. To be fair, the 111th Congress has addressed many significant issues, but those it has addressed, such as health-care reform and economic stimulus, exposed Americans to a flawed process of backroom deals that favors obstruction over deliberation, partisanship over statesmanship, and narrow interests over national concerns. Although partisan politics, deal making, and parliamentary maneuvering are nothing new to Congress, the extent to which they are being deployed today by lawmakers and the degree to which they obstruct the resolution of national problems are unprecedented. This may explain why Congress registered a confidence level of only 11 percent in July 2010, marking its lowest rating ever in the annual Gallup institutional confidence survey and ranking it last among sixteen major U.S. institutions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and War
Political Geography:
United States

10922. Madagascar : la crise A un tournant critique ?

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
En mars 2009, acculé par des manifestations, ainsi que par une mutinerie de l'armée, l'ancien président Marc Ravalomanana remet le pouvoir à un directoire militaire, qui le transmet immédiatement au maire de la capitale de l'époque, Andry Rajoelina, meneur des mouvements de contestation. 1 A la tête de l'Etat depuis lors, la Haute au- torité de la transition (HAT) monopolise le pouvoir, alors qu'une opposition structurée en « mouvances » représen- tant les anciens présidents du pays réclame une gestion inclusive et consensuelle de la transition defait, ouverte par la chute de Ravalomanana et l'installation au pouvoir de la HAT. 2 Ce mode de gestion av ait fait l'objet d'accords en 2009 à Maputo et à Addis-Abeba entre les quatre chefs de mouvances, mais ceuxci ont été annulés de manière unilatérale par le président de la HAT.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Politics, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

10923. Energy Innovation: Driving Technology Competition and Cooperation Among the U.S., China, India, and Brazil

Author:
Adam Segal, Elizabeth C. Economy, Michael A. Levi, and Shannon K. O'Neil
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
If governments are to respond effectively to the challenge of climate change, they will need to ramp up their support for innovation in low-carbon technologies and make sure that the resulting developments are diffused and adopted quickly. Yet for the United States, there is a tension inherent in these goals: the country's interests in encouraging the spread of technology can clash with its efforts to strengthen its own economy of particular importance is the spread of low-carbon technologies from the United States to the major emerging economies—China, India, and Brazil. Washington's strategy to promote the spread of low-carbon technologies to these countries must combine efforts to grow and open markets for low-carbon technologies with active support for accelerating the innovation and diffusion of these technologies. Its strategy will also need to reflect the unique challenges presented by each of the three countries.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, China, Washington, and Brazil

10924. Congo : Pas de stabilité au Kivu malgré le rapprochement avec le Rwanda

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le plan de résolution du conf lit au Kivu consistant à pri-vilégier la solution militaire s'avère être un échec. Deux années après le début du rapprochement entre le président Congolais Joseph Kabila et son homologue rwandais Paul Kagame, les soldats gouvernementaux sont encore aux prises avec des miliciens pour le contrôle des terres et des zones minières. Bien qu'aucune des deux parties n'ait réellement les capacités de pr endre un ascendant définitif, elles ont toutes deux les ressources suffisantes pour prolonger la lutte. Dans le même temps, les civils subissent des violences extrêmes et la situation humanitaire se dété-riore. Les tensions ethniques se sont aggravées à l'annonce des plans de rapatriement de dizaines de milliers de réfu-giés congolais qui ont fui au Rwanda durant les années 1990. Le Conseil de Sécurité des Nations Unies a observé la situation se dégrader à l'est du Congo sans s'opposer aux décisions de Kagame et Kabila.
Topic:
Civil War, Diplomacy, Economics, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

10925. Hydropolitics in Pakistan's Indus Basin

Author:
Daanish Mustafa
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Water problems in Pakistan result largely from poor management, but the consequences of management failures are accentuated, both materially and politically, by international and subnational hydropolitics. There is enough water in the Indus basin to provide for the livelihoods of its residents for a long time, provided that the water is managed efficiently and equitably and that additional water is made available not just through storage but, more importantly, through higher efficiency and intersectoral transfers. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) seems to moderate the worst impulses of India and Pakistan toward each other, and perhaps therein lies IWT's greatest strength. Pakistani engineers typically interpret the IWT's extensive technical annexures very literally, whereas the Indian engineers tend to emphasize the treaty's criteria for techno-economi¬cally sound project design. No single completed or proposed Indian project on the three western rivers of the Indus basin alone has the potential to significantly limit flows of water to Pakistan. But the long list of proposed Indian projects on the those rivers will in the future give India the cumulative storage capacity to reduce substantively water flows to Pakistan during the low-flow winter months. The IWT, by performing an amputation surgery on the basin, made matters simple and allowed India and Pakistan to pursue their nationalist agendas without much need for more sophisticated and involved cooperation in the water field. This lack of cooperative sharing of water leaves the ecological and social consequences of the treaty to be negotiated and contested at the subnational scale. The interprovincial conflict over water distribution in Pakistan has potential—albeit entirely avoidable—repercussions for stability, at both the subnational and international levels. Instead of constructing very expensive, environmentally damaging, and economically dubious water-storage megaprojects in Pakistan, enhancement of the existing infrastructure's efficiency, coupled with better on-farm water management and more appropriate irrigation and farming techniques, would perhaps more than make up for any additional water that might be gained from megaprojects. Since the drought in southern Pakistan in the latter half of the 1990s, the single-minded focus of the Pakistani water bureaucracy on water development has made the issue of the construction of the Kalabagh Dam project a surrogate for a litany of Sindhi grievances against the Punjabi-dominated political, military, and bureaucratic system in Pakistan. The emphasis on maximizing water withdrawals and on greater regulation of the Indus river system contributed to accentuating the very high flood peaks in 2010. Although the floods are being used by the pro-dams lobby to call for construction of more storage on the Indus, the tragedy ought to inspire a more nuanced and comprehensive reevaluation of the water-management system in the basin. The IWT is a product of its time and could be fruitfully modified and renegotiated to bring it more in line with contemporary international watercourse law, the Helsinki rules, and emerging concerns with water quality, environmental sustainability, climate change, and principles of equitable sharing. But that renegotiation, if it ever happens, is going to be contingent upon significant improvement in bilateral relations between India and Pakistan. India could be more forthcoming with flow data and be more prompt and open in communicating its planned projects on the Indus basin to Pakistan, particularly in the western basin. Pakistan can engage with India within the context of the IWT more positively than defensively, and also educate its media and politicians so as not to sensationalize essentially technical arguments by presenting them as existential threats.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Water
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and India

10926. Why Sudan's Popular Consultation Matters

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Largely unnoticed outside the region, the Sudanese states of Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile have begun the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)–mandated process of popular consultation, which permits Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile to either adopt the CPA as the final settlement between the two states and the Government of Sudan (GoS) or renegotiate the CPA to remedy any shortcomings and reach a final settlement. The first phase of the popular consultation process involves civic education campaigns to inform the two states' populations of the contents of the CPA and the issues at stake. The second phase is the consultations themselves, which are to be conducted by a commission in each state. The results of the consultations will be reported to the state assemblies and inform the positions taken by the states during negotiations with the central government. A successful popular consultation could begin to transform Sudanese politics by realigning political interests from political parties to the states and could provide a test case for new governance structures between the center and the states. A neglected or mismanaged process could destabilize not just Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile, but all of Sudan. The international community can contribute to a successful process through financial assistance, monitoring and reporting, promoting reconciliation within the population, and engaging directly with Khartoum and Juba to smooth negotiations. It might also anticipate possible procedural challenges and prepare to engage in creative and quiet diplomacy should the need arise.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

10927. Can You Help Me Now? Mobile Phones and Peacebuilding in Afghanistan

Author:
Sheldon Himelfarb
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
A decade ago, mobile phone usage in Afghanistan was almost nonexistent; now there are 13 million subscriptions for a total of 29 million citizens, and the annual growth rate of subscription is estimated at 53 percent. A number of factors have fueled this dramatic increase, including the sheer popular demand for communication, an absence of viable landline substitutes, government deregulation, and a competitive market that flourishes despite the conflict. Each of the major telecommunications companies in Afghanistan identifies the same five challenges to future expansion: poverty, high illiteracy rates, corruption, an untrained workforce, and lack of security. Despite these challenges, Afghanistan has proved an exceptional case study in the use of mobile phones for social change in support of peacebuilding, as it has been the focus of numerous pilot application programs conducted by the government, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and the private sector. Mobile money transfer (MMT) applications have proved to be powerful mechanisms for helping to reduce corruption, foster security sector reform, and promote economic development. Yet neither the international community nor the Afghan government has shown the will or the capacity to move MMT programs forward at a pace commensurate with their demonstrated potential. At least two other high-value mobile applications were cited during the June summit as having improved conditions for stability and reconstruction in early deployments: the provision of market information through mobile phones, especially in the agricultural sector, and the use of mobile phones to strengthen local governance and civil society. Both applications have sufficient promise to warrant large-scale rollouts and merit careful consideration by international donors, whose support is vital during the transition to sustainability. Other applications on the horizon that hold tangible if still aspirational promise for peacebuilding are those that use mobile phones for land dispute resolution, election monitoring, and gender empowerment and education.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Science and Technology, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

10928. Developing Technological Capabilities in Agro-Industry: Ghana's experience with fresh pinapple exports in comparative perspective

Author:
Lindsay Whitfield
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The economic policy agenda which promoted a non-interventionist state, trade openness, deregulation, liberalization and privatization as the formula for unleashing private sector productive forces in developing countries is discredited. The economic record of the past decades does not support this theory. Former proponents of the agenda acknowledge that the 'supply side' response of the private sector, especially in African countries, has not been what was expected in reaction to these economic reforms. Consensus is building on the need for industrial policy, and the debate is over what kinds of state interventions are likely to help build the private sector. Thus, the time is ripe for an evidence-based discussion of what is 'private sector development' in Africa, and how it promote it. In order to move the debate forward, we need more analyses of how actual existing industries are created, expanded and remain competitive in the contemporary global economic context.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, and Globalization
Political Geography:
Africa

10929. Asian Economic Integration and Cooperation: Challenges and Ways Forward for Pan-Asian Regionalism

Author:
Durgesh K. Rai
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
As the Asian economies have grown larger and become more complex, they have also be-come more integrated at both the regional and the subregional level. Yet although economic integration has increased, regionalism in the sense of economic cooperation at both the pan-Asian and subregional levels has lagged behind. Regionalism or economic cooperation in terms of bilateral or multilateral FTAs is a relatively new phenomenon, but one that has in-creased rapidly in recent years. However, the progress of Asian regionalism faces several challenges. Also, the increasing number of FTAs could lead to a "spaghetti-bowl effect" and reduce trade volume instead of increasing it. In addition to resolving the existing challenges, actors in the region need to convert some of the existing FTAs into a broader one that can serve as a hub for further integration. Given the potential economic gains and future eco-nomic dynamism of the region, this paper suggests the pursuit of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership in East Asia (CEPEA) rather than the East Asia Free Trade Area (EAFTA).
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

10930. Caught in the Middle: China and India in Sudan's Transition

Author:
Daniel Large and Luke Patey
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Sudan is at an important, historic moment. The upcoming referendum vote may very likely result in the South becoming an independent state. Since the landmark signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005, China, and to a lesser extent India, have become even more important political and economic partners of the ruling National Congress Party in Khartoum. Generally, commentaries and studies covering China and India's relations with Sudan focus on their interactions with the central government in Khartoum. However, this paper finds that both have also followed a necessary hedging strategy by establishing quasi-diplomatic relations with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-run Government of Southern Sudan in Juba. Both have expanded economic and political relations beyond investment in Sudan's oil sector and beyond merely engaging Khartoum. Chinese and Indian engagement with the GOSS in Juba marks a major shift in policy from dealing exclusively with the central government. The adaptation of both to political developments, however, does not leave them invulnerable to present uncertainties revolving around Sudan's potential split. Due to its economic role in Sudan, China in particular is in a unique position to promote a peaceful transition.
Topic:
Democratization, Diplomacy, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Sudan, and India

10931. Registering Reporters: How Licensing of Journalists Threatens Independent Media

Author:
Steven Strasser
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
How should a society choose those who can be entrusted with the power of the news media? For a time after World War II, many developing countries emerging from colonialism thought they had the answer: Governments should license journalists to support the crucial work of forging modern national identities. In a world of violently competing political ideas, these governments carefully vetted those who would follow the correct line. Freedom of the press was considered an unaffordable luxury. New countries attempting to find stability inside and outside of their borders needed a press that promoted patriotism, unity, and strong government.
Topic:
Democratization, Third World, and Mass Media

10932. La influencia de los actores domésticos en la política exterior brasileña durante el gobierno de Lula da Silva La influencia de los actores domésticos en la política exterior brasileña durante el gobierno de Lula da Silva

Author:
Clarisa Giaccaglia
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
La preponderancia de la corriente realista en el ámbito de las relaciones internacionales relegó a un plano secundario la consideración de los factores domésticos en el análisis del comportamiento externo de un Estado. No obstante, a partir de la post-Guerra Fría, la preocupación por cuestiones internas ha ido en aumento. En el caso de Brasil, el advenimiento de la globalización y de la redemocratización en el plano regional hicieron que la política externa se tornase más permeable para la sociedad brasileña. Cabe entonces preguntarse: ¿quiénes son los principales agentes involucrados actualmente en la formulación y ejecución de la política exterior brasileña? ¿Qué factores políticos, sociales y económicos de la estructura doméstica influyen en el proceso de toma de decisiones?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Globalization
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

10933. La construcción de la nueva imagen china a través de los medios: análisis de la ceremonia de inauguración de los Juegos Olímpicos de Beijing y el desfile del 60 aniversario de la República Popular China

Author:
Daniel Lemus Delgado
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
El presente artículo analiza la ceremonia de inauguración de los XXIX Juegos Olímpicos de Beijing y el desfile conmemorativo del 60 Aniversario del establecimiento de la República Popular China. Estos eventos son parte de la estrategia del gobierno comunista para construir la imagen de una "Gran China". Este análisis parte de un enfoque constructivista de las Relaciones Internacionales. Por lo tanto, se asume que las identidades colectivas son importantes, porque contribuyen a moldear las estructuras materiales del escenario internacional. Así, estos eventos mediáticos fortalecen la identidad colectiva del pueblo chino y con ello, la posibilidad de que el Estado chino tenga cada día un rol más importante en la arena mundial.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Communism, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and Asia

10934. Los soportes de la popularidad: cómo los columnistas refieren el caso del presidente Álvaro Uribe Vélez

Author:
Ana Cristina Vélez López
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
“Álvaro Uribe Vélez no deja de sorprender” afirma la mayoría de columnistas de la prensa colombiana, pues desde que llegó a la presidencia ha mostrado ser un mandatario que no sólo tiene un estilo original de gobernar, sino también, ser un presidente que mantiene índices de popularidad nunca antes vistos. ¿Cómo puede explicarse esto? ¿Qué dicen los periodistas y líderes de opinión? Este artículo pretende realizar un análisis de las columnas de opinión publicadas en los diarios y semanarios nacionales con el fin de explicar cuáles son los soportes de la popularidad de Uribe Vélez, quien a lo largo de su mandato ha logrado mantener la aceptación más alta entre todos los presidentes de la historia de Colombia.
Topic:
Government, Mass Media, and Governance
Political Geography:
Colombia

10935. The Charisma of Authenticity in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Author:
Kasper Hoffmann
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to propose an analysis which discloses the various interdependencies that may exist between modes of objectifying the nation and the legitimacy of discursive strategies of nation-building in the context of a grave social conflict. The paper advances two interrelated arguments. Firstly, it argues that the order of conflict in the Congo is contingent on the strictly symbolic efficacy of myths of identity. Secondly it argues that the "charisma" of some of the country's "Big Men" is a related to what I call the democratization of sovereignty, and neither to their supposedly exceptional individual qualities nor to a specifically African "Big Man"-syndrome. I propose that while one must be critical of the Weberian notion of "charisma" as a sociological theory of prophecy, one can nonetheless use the notion of "charisma" as a tool to analyse symbolic properties that accrue to a specific individual and his followers, to the extent that they embody a subjectivity which is held as absolute by his, or their, proper discourse.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

10936. Betwixt and between – chiefs and reform of Sierra Leone's justice sector

Author:
Peter Albrecht
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper discusses the uneasy role of chiefs within three cycles of security and justice reform in Sierra Leone during the past decade. Interaction has been indirect, by default or marginal, and always hesitant. This has been the case, even though chiefs constitute the most important governing institution in Sierra Leone's rural communities. One of the key tensions, I argue, has been the tendency to cast chiefs as state or non-state, respectively, or even as a hybrid between the two. However, as illustrated in this paper, while they are formally and discursively tied into a 'state system' in the Constitution and in legislation, they are subjected to limited oversight, and therefore govern in relative autonomy. A new program, designed in 2010, might help to transcend the state-non-state dichotomy and prepare the ground for a more productive way of engaging chiefs that do not fit into either a state or non-state category. This is done by focusing on which actors are actually providing security and justice, rather than who donors would prefer did it, i.e., the state.
Topic:
Security and Law
Political Geography:
Africa

10937. The financial crisis and lower income countries: A preliminary synthesis of findings on impacts, responses and lessons

Author:
Sam Jones
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper synthesizes findings from a range of studies presented at a recent conference on the financial crisis held at the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS). Focusing on low and lower-middle income countries, the studies explore the impacts, responses and initial lessons of the crisis. The complex and diverse nature of these impacts at both the aggregate and household levels are highlighted, as is the need to reconsider conventional policy advice. Considerations for future research directions are also presented.
Topic:
Economics, Third World, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis

10938. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan: An attempt to deconstruct the umbrella organization and the reasons for its growth in Pakistan's north-west

Author:
Qandeel Siddique
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The present report aims to describe the concept of the militant umbrella organization Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) by looking at the organisational structure, background and ideology of the group. Tactics and recruitment strategies are also discussed, along with the various financial sources that have helped sustain the TTP. Finally, the reasons for the spread and rise of the TTP are analysed.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Taliban

10939. Inward FDI in Russia and its policy context

Author:
Alexey Kuznetsov
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In the 2000s, Russia became a significant host for inward foreign direct investment (IFDI). But its investment climate problems, especially corruption, do not allow Russia to exploit its locational advantages to the full. Russia attracts mainly European investors in a rather narrow range of industries (although the share of mining is decreasing) and regions (mainly in Moscow, St. Petersburg and oil-rich Sakhalin). However, even during the crisis, a new industrial cluster has developed near Kaluga and some large mergers and acquisitions (M) and greenfield projects have been realized outside the Central and North-West federal districts. Russia is trying to diversify the structure and geography of IFDI using incentives (e.g. in special economic zones).
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

10940. A Role for the G-20 in Addressing Climate Change?

Author:
Trevor Houser
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Following the chaotic Copenhagen conference of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), policymakers and pundits have discussed the G-20 as an alternative forum for advancing climate change diplomacy. This paper assesses the risks and rewards of tackling climate change in the G-20 and finds that despite its seeming attractiveness, the G-20, as structured, is not a suitable replacement for the UN-led process and has limited ability, at present, to advance climate change negotiations. There is much, however, that the G-20 can do to contribute to the goals of the climate negotiations outside of wading into the negotiations themselves. Building on its existing agenda the G-20 has the power to significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, accelerate the deployment of clean energy technology, and help vulnerable countries adapt to a warmer world through the mobilization of public and private finance. Following through on the existing G-20 pledge to phase out and rationalize inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, establishing new green guidelines for multilateral development banks, coordinating green stimulus exit strategies, promoting open markets for environmental goods and services, and rebalancing global economic growth all fall well within the G-20's mandate and help meet the climate challenge.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, and International Organization
Political Geography:
United Nations

10941. Reform of the Global Financial Architecture

Author:
Edwin M. Truman and Garry J. Schinasi
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines the implications of the global financial crisis of 2007–10 for reform of the global financial architecture, in particular the International Monetary Fund and the Financial Stability Board and their interaction. These two institutions are not fully comparable, but they must work more closely in the future to help prevent global financial crises. To this end, the paper identifies institutional and substantive reforms separately and in their joint work that would be desirable and appropriate.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis

10942. The G-20 and International Financial Institution Governance

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper addresses the agenda for the Group of Twenty (G-20) leaders' meeting in Seoul, Korea in November 2010. This is an opportunity and challenge for Asian leaders in particular. Their test will be, first, to demonstrate that they can responsibly advance economic recovery. They must also deliver on institutional reform, in particular of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). I advocate a substantial expansion of the IMF's role as lender of last resort that is integrated with the surveillance role of the IMF in the form of comprehensive prequalification for IMF assistance and policy advice and a substantial increase in the IMF's financial resources. I also propose an approach to meaningful reform of the distribution of IMF quotas along with limiting European seats on the IMF executive board.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Asia, and Korea

10943. Managing Credit Booms and Busts: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach

Author:
Olivier Jeanne and Anton Korinek
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
We study a dynamic model in which the interaction between debt accumulation and asset prices magnifies credit booms and busts. We find that borrowers do not internalize these feedback effects and therefore suffer from excessively large booms and busts in both credit flows and asset prices. We show that a Pigouvian tax on borrowing may induce borrowers to internalize these externalities and increase welfare. We calibrate the model with reference to (1) the US small and medium-sized enterprise sector and (2) the household sector and find the optimal tax to be countercy - clical in both cases, dropping to zero in busts and rising to approximately half a percentage point of the amount of debt outstanding during booms.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

10944. Pandemic Flu: Public Health and the Culture of Fear

Author:
Michael Fitzpatrick
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
'Better safe than sorry' has been the familiar response of public health authorities to concerns about the enormous cost and disruption to health services that resulted from the 2009 global scare over what turned out to be a relatively benign swine flu virus. Some critics have focused on links between prominent public health figures and the manufacturers of antiviral medications and vaccines who were the conspicuous financial beneficiaries of the scare, alleging undue influence and conflicts of interest. This paper argues – from the perspective of a general practitioner engaged in an inner city practice in the UK during the 2009 pandemic – that the promotion of exaggerated fears of infectious disease as an instrument of policy risks further undermining popular trust in medicine and public health.
Topic:
Globalization and Health
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

10945. Much Ado about Nothing? On the European Union's fight against corruption in developing countries under Aticles 9(3) and 97 of the Cotonou Agreement

Author:
Morten Broberg
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Cotonou Agreement is the European Union's most important legal measure in the field of development assistance covering 79 developing countries in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific (ACP countries). It empowers the European Union to sanction 'serious cases of corruption' where this corruption is related to economic and sectoral policies and programmes to which the European Union is a significant financial partner. During the negotiations leading to the adoption of the Cotonou Agreement the ACP countries strongly objected to the inclusion of the possibility of sanctioning corruption. In practice the European Union has only sanctioned one single case of corruption under the provision, however. Whereas this does not necessarily mean that the sanctioning clause is without an impact, the fact that sanctions have been imposed in only one situation is a strong indication that its impact is rather limited. It is suggested that more effective means of preventing corruption are considered.
Topic:
Corruption, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Treaties and Agreements, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Caribbean

10946. Dialoguing Partnerships: An analysis of the dialogue assumptions of the Danish Partnership for Dialogue and Reform

Author:
Marie-Louise Koch Wegter and Karina Pultz
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In 2003, the Danish government launched the Partnership for Dialogue and Reform (PDR) with the dual objective of 1) establishing a basis for improved dialogue, understanding and cooperation between Denmark and the Arab region; and 2) supporting existing local reform processes in the Middle East and North Africa. With the first objective, which is the focus of this study, PDR was intended to demonstrate the trivialization of Huntington's thesis of a clash of civilizations that Al Qaeda, only few years before, had brought back to the limelight of international politics and endeavoured to prove. PDR was to show populations in Europe and the Arab world that there was indeed a strong, shared agenda between the so-called West and the mother-region of the Islamic world and that mutual misconceptions and prejudice could be overcome through the joined pursuit of this agenda of progress.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Arabia, Denmark, and North Africa

10947. Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1 (pH1N1) in Hong Kong: Anatomy of a Response

Author:
Richard Fielding
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 (pH1N1) spread rapidly from its origins in Mexico to affect Hong Kong as its first point of entry into Asia. In this paper, the different stages of government response from prevention to mitigation to vaccination and stand down are described and discussed from the perspectives of feasibility, pragmatism, effectiveness and population responses to offer insights into future influenza pandemic preparedness.
Topic:
Globalization, Government, and Health
Political Geography:
Israel, Asia, Mexico, and Hong Kong

10948. Does Profit-Seeking Rule Out Love? Evidence (or Not) from Economics and Law

Author:
Julie A. Nelson
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Many believe that firms are driven to maximize profits, and therefore are not allowed to take actions that would benefit their workers, communities, or the environment if these actions would reduce profits even slightly. This essay shows that this belief is supported neither by sound economic evidence and arguments, nor by United States statutory and case law. The roots of this belief are, instead, to be found in a centuries-old desire of economists to make our discipline look like Newtonian physics. Among scholars of law, both misinformation and the use of University of Chicago-style economics have contributed to the belief's popularity. Among scholars and the public alike, the dualistic "love or money" view is appealing because of its simplicity and congruence with cultural gender norms. Reexamining the evidence, rather than adhering to common ideologies, this essay offers an unconventional analysis of corporate behavior and commodification.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Law
Political Geography:
United States and Chicago

10949. The Macroeconomics of Development without Throughput Growth

Author:
Jonathan M. Harris
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Serious discussion has begun of policies to promote the goal of increasing wellbeing without material growth. Moving towards this goal requires a profound reorientation of macroeconomic theory. Importantly, the call by ecological economists to move away from traditional growth-oriented models comes at a moment when standard macroeconomics is in considerable turmoil. The financial crisis of 2008/2009 seriously undermined the basis for mainstream macroeconomics and brought renewed attention to various forms of Keynesian analysis and policy previously regarded as outdated.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Markets, and Political Economy

10950. The Global Aging Preparedness Index

Author:
Richard Jackson, Neil Howe, and Keisuke Nakashima
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Global aging promises to affect everything from business psychology and worker productivity to rates of savings and investment, long-term returns to capital, and the direction of global capital flows. Perhaps most fatefully, it could throw into question the ability of many societies to provide a decent standard of living for the old without placing a crushing burden on the young.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, Globalization, and Health

10951. The War in Afghanistan: Key Trends in the Fighting and ANSF Development in the DoD 1230 Report and Year-End NTM-A Reporting

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Recent reporting by the NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan (NTM-A) and the Department of Defense provides added insight into how the course of the fighting tracks with the development of Afghan security forces. The metrics in this analysis are not a substitute for reading the detailed Department of Defense reporting on Afghan force development available in the publications section of DoD's web site at defenselink.gov, or the new NTM-A report, "Year in Review, November 2009 to November 2010." They do show, however, that there is now a far more credible prospect that Afghan forces will be ready for transition in 2014, and capable of largely assuming responsibility for security operations. The one critical caveat is that these efforts must continue to be properly funded, and that NATO has not yet obtained anything like the quantity and quality of trainers and partners it needs to win. These metrics make it clear that this is a the highest single priority for added military contributions from NATO countries, and that current assets meet less that 40% of the requirement needed by mid-2011.
Topic:
Security, NATO, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

10952. Managing the Challenge of Russian Energy Policies

Author:
Keith C. Smith
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Following the breakup of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, the leaders of Russia, including then-President Boris Yeltsin, searched for new methods of continuing to exert influence over the former Soviet-controlled region. The Kremlin at first used an energy blockade to the Baltic States in 1990 in an attempt to prevent their breakaway from the Soviet Union. After that failed, it then focused on the growing opposition in the former republics of the Soviet Union and in East Central Europe to its foreign and economic policies, and in particular on demands that Russian military forces withdraw from the newly independent states. The Kremlin leadership quickly recognized that short of military action, its major foreign policy tool was the denial or threat of denial of access to Russia's vast oil and gas resources. The economies of East European and Central Asian countries, and especially their rail and pipeline infrastructures, had been hardwired by Soviet leaders to assure total dependency on Moscow for their raw materials, including oil, gas, coal, and nuclear fuel.
Topic:
Cold War, Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Oil
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Soviet Union

10953. Radical Islam in the North Caucasus

Author:
Sergey Markedonov
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
As Kyrgyzstan plunges into crisis and the threat of a second Afghanistan in Central Asia looms large, the situation in the "Big Caucasus" seems less pressing and thus overshadowed. The worst scenarios predicted by analysts and politicians for the period of the 2008 August war have not been realized. The Russian attempt to "replace the regime" of Mikhail Saakashvili or apply the Georgian pattern in Ukraine, expected by many in the West, has not taken place. Neither have the attempts from the West (the United States, NATO, and others) to "nudge Georgia into a rematch," which were expected in Moscow. Nonetheless, the Caucasus region remains one of the most vulnerable spaces in Eurasia. In the Caucasus, the first precedent of a revision of borders between the former Soviet republics was established. For the first time in Eurasia, and particularly in the Caucasus, partially recognized states have emerged. While their independence is denied by the United Nations, it is recognized by the Russian Federation, a permanent member of the UN Security Council. After the "hot August" of 2008, Moscow demonstrated its willingness to play the role of a revisionist state for the first time since 1991. Russia defines the "Big Caucasus" as the sphere of its vital interests and priorities and consequently pretends to be a key stakeholder for the whole region.
Topic:
NATO, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Central Asia, Eurasia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Moscow, and United Nations

10954. Regional Monetary Cooperation in East Asia

Author:
Melissa Murphy and Wen Jin Yuan
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
After a decade of negotiations revolving around regional monetary cooperation, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plus China, Japan, and South Korea (ASEAN+3) finally reached agreement to establish a regional foreign reserve pool in February 2009. The launch of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) came amid the global financial crisis, when the ASEAN nations hit so hard during the 1997 Asian financial crisis were once again reminded of the utility of a joint policy initiative to ensure regional financial stability.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Israel and Asia

10955. Sudanese Perspectives on the 2010 Referendum

Author:
Richard Downie and Brian Kennedy
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The people of Southern Sudan are a little more than one month away from casting their votes in a referendum on whether to remain part of Sudan or become an independent state. The referendum is the most significant milestone in a six-year interim period that began with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005. The CPA was the outcome of a U.S.-backed process that successfully brought an end to almost 40 years of civil war between the North and South. Two votes are scheduled to take place on January 9, 2011. In the first, Southern Sudanese will vote on whether they wish to secede from the North and form an independent country in the South. At the same time, voters in the border enclave of Abyei will decide whether to remain in the North or join the South. CSIS Africa Program staff, Richard Downie and Brian Kennedy, traveled to Khartoum and the southern capital, Juba, in October to gauge views about the forthcoming referenda and assess how preparations are proceeding ahead of the polls.
Topic:
Civil War, Islam, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

10956. India and the Civil War in Sri Lanka: On the Failures of Regional Conflict Management in South Asia

Author:
Sandra Destradi
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The paper provides an assessment of India's role in the final years of the civil war in Sri Lanka (2003-2009). In particular, it looks for explanations for India's inability to act as a conflict manager in its own region, which is in contrast to predominant assumptions about the role of powerful regional states. It also seeks to explain the surprising turn in India's approach to the conflict, when in 2007 New Delhi began to rather explicitly support the Sri Lankan government—in disregard of its traditional preference for a peaceful solution and its sensitivity for the fate of Sri Lankan Tamils. While historical and domestic pressures led to India's indecisive approach during the years 2003-2007, starting from 2007 regional and international factors—most notably the skillful diplomacy of the Sri Lankan government and the growing Chinese presence there—induced New Delhi to support the government side in order to keep some leverage on Sri Lankan affairs. The analysis of the Sri Lankan case opens several avenues for further research in the fields of regional conflict management and foreign policy analysis.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and New Delhi

10957. UN Security Council Enlargement and U.S. Interests

Author:
Kara C. McDonald and Stewart M. Patrick
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Advancing U.S. national interests in an era of global threats depends on effective multilateral action. Global institutions inherited from the past are struggling to adapt to the rise of new challenges and powers. “The international architecture of the 20th century is buckling,” declares the new U.S. National Security Strategy. President Barack Obama has committed his administration to renovating outdated institutions and integrating emerging powers as pillars of a rule-based international order. Renovation of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and its membership must be a core component of this agenda. President Obama's announcement in November 2010 of U.S. support for a permanent UNSC seat for India is a critical first step in this direction.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Organization, United Nations, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States

10958. Dangerous Little Stones: Diamonds in the Central African Republic

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the diamond mines of the Central African Republic (CAR), extreme poverty and armed conflict put thousands of lives in danger. President François Bozizé keeps tight control of the diamond sector to enrich and empower his own ethnic group but does little to alleviate the poverty that drives informal miners to dig in perilous conditions. Stringent export taxes incentivise smuggling that the mining authorities are too few and too corrupt to stop. These factors combined – a parasitic state, poverty and largely unchecked crime – move jealous factions to launch rebellions and enable armed groups to collect new recruits and profit from mining and selling diamonds illegally. To ensure diamonds fuel developmen t not bloodshed, root and branch reform of the sector must become a core priority of the country's peacebuilding strategy.
Topic:
Political Violence, Poverty, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa

10959. China's Out of Area Naval Operations: Case Studies, Trajectories, Obstacles, and Potential Solutions

Author:
Christopher D. Yung and Ross Rustici
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
This study seeks to understand the future direction of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) with regard to out of area deployments and power projection. The assessment is based on the history of past PLAN out of area deployments and an analysis of out of area operations of other military forces. Both short- and long-term lenses are employed to understand the scope and direction of China's defense planning and strategic decisions.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
China

10960. The Economist Intelligence Unit's Index of Democracy 2010

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
This is the third edition of the Economist Intelligence Unit's democracy index. It reflects the situation as of November 2010. The first edition, published in The Economist's The World in 2007, measured the state of democracy in September 2006 and the second edition covered the situation towards the end of 2008. The index provides a snapshot of the state of democracy worldwide for 165 independent states and two territories—this covers almost the entire population of the world and the vast majority of the world's independent states (micro states are excluded). The Economist Intelligence Unit's Index of Democracy is based on five categories: electoral process and pluralism; civil liberties; the functioning of government; political participation; and political culture. Countries are placed within one of four types of regimes: full democracies; flawed democracies; hybrid regimes; and authoritarian regimes.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Soviet Union

10961. 2010 Academic Rankings of World Universities

Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for World-Class Universities
Abstract:
The 2010 Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU) is released today by the Center for World-Class Universities of Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Starting from 2003, ARWU has been presenting the world top 500 universities annually based on a set of objective indicators and third-party data. ARWU has been recognized as the precursor of global university rankings and one of the most influential lists.
Topic:
Education and International Affairs
Political Geography:
China and Colombia

10962. Northern Nigeria: Background to Conflict

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Violence in northern Nigeria has flared up periodically over the last 30 years. Mainly in the form of urban riots, it has pitted Muslims against Christians and has seen confrontations between different Islamic sects. Although there have been some successes in conflict management in the last decade, the 2009 and 2010 troubles in Bauchi, Borno and Yobe states involving the radical Boko Haram sect show that violence still may flare up at any moment. If the situation were to deteriorate significantly, especially on Christian-Muslim lines, it could have serious repercussions for national cohesion in the build up to national elections in April 2011. To deal with the risks, community-level initiatives need to be reinforced, a more subtle security response should be formulated and the management of public resources must be improved. While some in the West panic at what they see as growing Islamic radicalism in the region, the roots of the problem are more complex and lie in Nigeria's history and contemporary politics.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Political Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

10963. The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia

Author:
Juzhong Zhuang, Suphachol Suphachalasai, and Jindra Nuella Samson
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
CSoutheast Asia is one of the world's most vulnerable regions to climate change due to its long coastlines, high concentration of population and economic activity in coastal areas, and heavy reliance on agriculture, natural resources and forestry. Climate change is already affecting the region, as shown by the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods and tropical cyclones in recent decades.
Topic:
Climate Change and Development
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

10964. By the People: The Rise of Citizen Journalism

Author:
Eugene L. Meyer
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Citizen journalism–it has an almost Norman Rockwell ring to it, something akin to his iconic town meeting cover for the Saturday Evening Post, with citizens rising to speak their minds in furtherance of the democratic ideal. Only now, citizens are speaking online, in many cases helping to disseminate the information an informed electorate needs for democracy to exist and flourish.
Topic:
Civil Society, Globalization, Science and Technology, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
United Arab Emirates

10965. H1N1 Outbreak in Pakistan: Lessons Learnt

Author:
Sania Nishtar
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Compared to many other countries in Asia, the outbreak of pandemic influenza H1N1 appeared to be of minor concern to Pakistan. This paper analyses, using qualitative research methods, the extent to which such a notion was justified and the response of Pakistan's health system to the outbreak, exploring the degree to which it is responsive to problems posed by an emerging infection. It looks at the health system measures introduced prior to the H1N1 outbreak (after the implementation of the International Health Regulations 2005) as these came into play during this episode, as well as specific measures introduced subsequent to the H1N1 outbreak.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Globalization, Health, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

10966. Cyprus: Bridging the Property Divide

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The property issue is one of the most intractable knots in the settlement of the Cyprus dispute, without which stability in the Eastern Mediterranean remains fragile. Greek and Turkish Cypriots own tens of thousands of buildings and parcels of land on both sides of the divided island. A convincing plan to resolve conflicting claims would give great support to reunification efforts and persuade external partners of Cypriots' will to find a compromise, even as the 2011 electoral calendar sets what is in effect a deadline for the present negotiations. But as Cypriot politicians and Turkey fail to come to terms, the property question is increasingly being atomised by individual actions and the courts – a process that will be more expensive, slow and inefficient for all than a comprehensive property settlement. With a comprehensive deal proving elusive, heavy court and administrative penalties and the actions of Cypriot individuals mean that the property issue can no longer be ignored or avoided. New ideas are urgently needed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Turkey and Greece

10967. Indonesia: Preventing Violence in Local Elections

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Indonesia needs to learn promptly the lessons from the sporadic violence witnessed in its local elections during 2010 as there is some evidence these easily preventable incidents could be increasing in frequency since the last cycle. While most district polls pass peacefully, the small number that do not reveals nationwide institutional weaknesses that should be fixed. These contests are often intense personal rivalries for community power that can be highly emotive and, if not closely watched, can quickly turn violent. While religious and ethnic ties are accentuated by these tense races, to date they have not triggered any sectarian schisms. Many confrontations could be avoided in future polls by relatively simple changes in practices, policies and laws. Rather than being too small for national attention, these political battles matter to this large country because, since decentralisation, it is this level of public administration that has the greatest impact on the lives of citizens. How these elections take place can determine the judgments that voters make on the success or failure of democracy throughout the archipelago.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

10968. Dealing with Iran: How can the EU achieve its strategic objectives?

Author:
Shirin Pakfar
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Europe and Iran have had important political, cultural and commercial relations that date back several centuries, but these relations have been steadily strained since 2002 when the uncertainty with regard to Iran's nuclear program became an issue of international concern. In demonstrating its role as an important foreign-policy actor capable of taking the lead in resolving global crises, through the leadership of France, Germany and the United Kingdom (the EU3) the EU has spearheaded efforts to obtain a solution to the deadlock between Tehran and the international community over Iran's nuclear program. This approach has not been fully successful in achieving its goal and has contributed to straining EU-Iran relations. The EU has yet to develop a unified, independent and long-term strategy vis-à-vis Iran that would enable it to maintain a constructive relationship with Tehran and achieve its strategic objectives without compromising its core values. The four strategies available to the EU are: a) use of force/military action; b) containment and deterrence; c) engagement; and d) non-entanglement. While the EU's short–term tactics represent a mixture of engagement and containment, this paper argues that, in the case of Iran, the two approaches cancel each other out. To increase its leverage on Iran on the nuclear issue and beyond, the EU must adopt a realpolitik strategy of détente, building confidence with the regime in Tehran and obtaining policy progress through non-controversial mutual areas of interest. The EU High Representative should also take a more active role in leading the EU's efforts.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Europe and Iran

10969. U.S. Government Funding for Media Development

Author:
Laura Mottaz
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
The Center for International Media Assistance (CIMA) , a project of the National Endowment for Democracy, aims to strengthen the support, raise the visibility, and improve the effectiveness of media assistance programs by providing information, building networks, conducting research, and highlighting the indispensable role independent media play in the creation and development of sustainable democracies around the world. An important aspect of CIMA's work is to research ways to attract additional U.S. private sector interest in and support for international media development.
Topic:
Development and Mass Media
Political Geography:
United States

10970. Learning about Schools in Development

Author:
Charles Kenny
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
There has been considerable progress in school construction and enrollment worldwide. Paying kids to go to school can help overcome remaining demand-side barriers to enrollment. Nonetheless, the quality of education appears very poor across the developing world, limiting development impact. Thus we should measure and promote learning not schooling. Conditional cash transfers to students on the basis of attendance and scores, school choice, decentralization combined with published test results, and teacher pay based on attendance and performance may help. But learning outcomes are primarily affected by the broader environment in which students live, suggesting a learning agenda that stretches far beyond education ministries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and East Asia

10971. Global Prospects for Utility-Scale Solar Power: Toward Spatially Explicit Modeling of Renewable Energy Systems

Author:
Kevin Ummel
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper provides high-resolution estimates of the global potential and cost of utility-scale photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies and uses a spatially explicit model to identify deployment patterns that minimize the cost of greenhouse gas abatement. A global simulation is run with the goal of providing 2,000 TWh of solar power (-7% of total consumption) in 2030, taking into account least-cost siting of facilities and transmission lines and the effect of diurnal variation on project profitability and required subsidies. The American southwest, Tibetan Plateau, Sahel, and Middle East are identified as major supply areas. Solar power consumption concentrates in the United States over the next decade, diversifying to Europe and India by the early 2020's, and focusing in China in the second half of the decade—often relying upon long-distance, highvoltage transmission lines. Cost estimates suggest deployment on this scale is likely to be competitive with other prominent abatement options in the energy sector. Further development of spatially explicit energy models could help guide infrastructure planning and financing strategies both nationally and globally, elucidating a range of important questions related to renewable energy policy.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Globalization, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, China, Middle East, and Sahel

10972. Capability Traps? The Mechanisms of Persistent Implementation Failure

Author:
Lant Pritchett, Michael Woolcock, and Matt Andrews
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Many countries remain stuck in conditions of low productivity that many call “poverty traps.” Economic growth is only one aspect of development; another key dimension of development is the expansion of the administrative capability of the state, the capability of governments to affect the course of events by implementing policies and programs. We use a variety of empirical indicators of administrative capability to show that many countries remain in “state capability traps” in which the implementation capability of the state is both severely limited and improving (if at all) only very slowly. At their current pace of progress countries like Haiti or Afghanistan or Liberia would take hundreds (if not thousands) of years to reach the capability of a country like Singapore and decades to reach even a moderate capability country like India. We explore how this can be so. That is, we do not attempt to explain why countries remain in capability traps; this would require a historical, political and social analysis uniquely applied to each country. Rather, we focus on how countries manage to engage in the domestic and international logics of “development” and yet consistently fail to acquire capability. What are the techniques of failure? Two stand out. First, 'big development' encourages progress through importing standard responses to predetermined problems. This encourages isomorphic mimicry as a technique of failure: the adoption of the forms of other functional states and organizations which camouflages a persistent lack of function. Second, an inadequate theory of developmental change reinforces a fundamental mismatch between expectations and the actual capacity of prevailing administrative systems to implement even the most routine administrative tasks. This leads to premature load bearing, in which wishful thinking about the pace of progress and unrealistic expectations about the level and rate of improvement of capability lead to stresses and demands on systems that cause capability to weaken (if not collapse). We conclude with some suggestive directions for sabotaging these techniques of failure.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, India, and Liberia

10973. Sudan Debt Dynamics: Status Quo, Southern Secession, Debt Division, and Oil–A Financial Framework for the Future

Author:
Benjamin Leo
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The people of Southern Sudan are scheduled to vote in a referendum on whether to remain unified with the central government in Khartoum or break away to form a new, fully independent country. While the Khartoum government remains committed to a unified Sudan, all indications suggest that the Southern Sudanese will vote for secession by an overwhelming majority. Khartoum's willingness to accept the potential losses remains unclear. Many suspect that its ultimate actions will depend, at least in part, upon the resolution of key outstanding issues, such as oil and debt. This paper contributes to ongoing discussions about the role of Sudan's $35 billion in external debt obligations – both for a unified Sudan and a possible Southern secession. First, it examines Sudan's existing debt dynamics and the potential eligibility for traditional debt relief and multilateral debt relief initiatives. Second, it outlines potential options for dividing Sudan's external debt obligations in the event of a Southern secession. Third, it estimates external indebtedness ratios under each debt division scenario and the potential relevance of traditional debt relief treatments. Lastly, the paper provides an indicative roadmap for clearing Sudan's loan arrears of $30 billion and potentially securing comprehensive debt relief in the future.
Topic:
Civil War, Debt, Ethnic Conflict, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

10974. Confronting the American Divide on Carbon Emissions Regulation

Author:
David Wheeler
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The failure of carbon regulation in the U.S. Congress has undermined international negotiations to reduce carbon emissions. The global stalemate has, in turn, increased the likelihood that vulnerable developing countries will be severely damaged by climate change. This paper asks why the tragic American impasse has occurred, while the EU has succeeded in implementing carbon regulation. Both cases have involved negotiations between relatively rich “Green” regions and relatively poor “Brown” (carbon-intensive) regions, with success contingent on two factors: the interregional disparity in carbon intensity, which proxies the extra mitigation cost burden for the Brown region, and the compensating incentives provided by the Green region. The European negotiation has succeeded because the interregional disparity in carbon intensity is relatively small, and the compensating incentive (EU membership for the Brown region) has been huge. In contrast, the U.S. negotiation has repeatedly failed because the interregional disparity in carbon intensity is huge, and the compensating incentives have been modest at best. The unsettling implication is that an EU-style arrangement is infeasible in the United States, so the Green states will have to find another path to serious carbon mitigation. One option is mitigation within their own boundaries, through clean technology subsidies or emissions regulation. The Green states have undertaken such measures, but potential free-riding by the Brown states and international competitors seems likely to limit this approach, and it would address only the modest Green-state portion of U.S. carbon emissions in any case. The second option is mobilization of the Green states' enormous market power through a carbon added tax (CAT). Rather than taxing carbon emissions at their points of production, a CAT taxes the carbon embodied in products at their points of consumption. For Green states, a CAT has four major advantages: It can be implemented unilaterally, state-by-state; it encourages clean production everywhere, by taxing carbon from all sources equally; it creates a market advantage for local producers, by taxing transport-related carbon emissions; and it offers fiscal flexibility, since it can either offset existing taxes or raise additional revenue.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

10975. Self-Inflicted Wounds: Debates and Divisions within al-Qa'ida and its Periphery

Author:
Assaf Moghadam(ed.) and Brian Fishman(ed.)
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
As we approach the tenth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks next September, the United States, its Western allies, and nearly all states in the Islamic world are facing a weakened jihadi enemy, but one still capable of inflicting, or threatening to inflict, spectacular acts of terrorist violence. The recent attempts to send package bombs on cargo planes is only the latest in a series of plots suggesting that although al-Qaida and its cohorts have suffered a number of setbacks, the group and its affiliates and associates continue to pose a serious challenge to the security of the United States and its allies.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

10976. Not Just Aid: How Making Government Work Can Transform Africa

Author:
Tony Blair
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Country ownership has become the new watchword in development. The problem for traditional donors is that ownership is too often code for convincing developing country governments to adopt the donors' agenda as their own: a way of securing influence without imposing conditionality. What is really needed is genuine country leadership. As President Obama said when he announced the United States' new development policy at the UN Millennium Development Goals summit in New York in September, “We will partner with countries that are willing to take the lead. Because the days when your development was dictated in foreign capitals must come to an end.”
Topic:
Development, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, New York, and United Nations

10977. Giving Money Away? The Politics of Direct Distribution in Resource Rich States

Author:
Alexandra Gillies
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The governments of resource rich states have several options for how to allocate oil and mineral revenues, including the direct distribution of revenues to their citizens. This paper discusses the political feasibility and political implications of such cash transfers in the specific context of resource-rich states. Identifying the contexts in which this policy is mostly likely to emerge, and understanding the potential governance risks and benefits, will help policymakers to consider the desirability of cash transfers as an allocation choice.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment

10978. A Research Strategy for the Pacific Climate Information System

Author:
Melissa L. Finucane, John Marra, and James C. Weyman
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Based on a selective review of the outcomes of previous meetings, conferences, workshops, and papers highlighting climate variability and change research needs in the Pacific region, this paper presents a research strategy for increasing understanding of climate-society linkages in Pacific Island settings. The strategy provides a synopsis of emerging research goals and illustrative activities that users can rank according to their priorities. Grounded in the framework of the Pacific Climate Information System, the strategy is comprised of three key research elements: (1) research to enhance understanding of regional climate risks and consequences; (2) research to improve decision support and risk communication; and (3) research to improve climate adaptation capacity. We envision the strategy will contribute to enhanced understanding of scientific and societal knowledge of climate processes and their impacts and stakeholder capacity for building sustainable island communities for future generations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia/Pacific

10979. Technological Readiness in the Middle East and North Africa – Implications for Egypt

Author:
Juliane Brach
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Innovation is widely recognized as a key driver of sustainable economic development. Governments, international organizations, donors and investors are increasingly interested in evaluating the technological capabilities and innovative capacities in developing countries, but often lack appropriate approaches for such measurement. This paper focuses on innovation and technological progress in the MENA region and discusses the challenges of understanding, expanding and fostering innovative potential in Egypt.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

10980. China in Africa: A Macroeconomic Perspective

Author:
Benedicte Vibe Christensen
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In recent years, China has dramatically expanded its financing and foreign direct investment to Africa. This expansion has served the political and economic interests of China while providing Africa with much-needed technology and financial resources. This paper looks at China's role in Africa from the Chinese perspective. The main conclusion is that China, as an emerging global player and one of Africa's largest trading and financial partners, can no longer ignore the macroeconomic impact of its operations on African economies. Indeed, it is in China's interest that its engagement leads to sustainable economic development on the continent. Trade, financing, and technology transfer must continue at a pace that African economies can absorb without running up against institutional constraints, the capacity to service the costs to future budgets, or the balance of payments. A key corollary is that China should show good governance in its own operations in Africa. Finally, macroeconomic analysis needs to be supported by better analytical data and organization of decision making to support China's engagement in Africa.
Topic:
Development and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa and China

10981. The Economics of Population Policy for Carbon Emissions Reduction in Developing Countries

Author:
David Wheeler and Dan Hammer
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Female education and family planning are both critical for sustainable development, and they obviously merit expanded support without any appeal to global climate considerations. However, even relatively optimistic projections suggest that family planning and female education will suffer from financing deficits that will leave millions of women unserved in the coming decades. Since both activities affect fertility, population growth, and carbon emissions, they may also provide sufficient climate-related benefits to warrant additional financing from resources devoted to carbon emissions abatement. This paper considers the economic case for such support. Using recent data on emissions, program effectiveness and program costs, we estimate the cost of carbon emissions abatement via family planning and female education. We compare our estimates with the costs of numerous technical abatement options that have been estimated by Nauclér and Enkvist in a major study for McKinsey and Company (2009). We find that the population policy options are much less costly than almost all of the options Nauclér and Enkvist provide for low-carbon energy development, including solar, wind, and nuclear power, second-generation biofuels, and carbon capture and storage. They are also cost-competitive with forest conservation and other improvements in forestry and agricultural practices. We conclude that female education and family planning should be viewed as viable potential candidates for financial support from global climate funds. The case for female education is also strengthened by its documented contribution to resilience in the face of the climate change that has already become inevitable.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Gender Issues, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa

10982. Living Standards in an Ageing, Greener, Knowledge Economy: Towards a period of lean cows?

Author:
Jørgen Mortensen
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper provides evidence on past growth of productivity, analysing the evolution of labour productivity, capital deepening and multi-factor productivity. Based on a literature review of recent studies, it shows that economic growth is increasingly attributable to the accumulation of intangible capital and that consequently, an increasing share of conventionally measured rise in labour productivity has, in fact, been ploughed back into the economy as intangible capital formation. In addition, it shows that on average for the developed countries examined, the growth of total factor productivity has been the main determinant of the increase in living standards over the 50 years from 1960 to 2010. It also demonstrates a striking slowdown in the growth of both productivity and living standards during this period. Looking ahead, it argues that the period 2010 to 2030 is likely to see a considerable expansion of tangible and intangible capital formation and lower growth of multi-factor productivity. The paper therefore concludes that over the next 20 years the scope for growth in living standards in the developed economies will be very limited, on average around half a percent per annum, with serious consequences for social conditions and a likely aggravation of inequalities.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Human Welfare, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Europe

10983. CO2 Highways for Europe: Modelling a Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage Infrastructure for Europe

Author:
Johannes Herold, Roman Mendelevitch, Pao-Yu Oei, and Andreas Tissen
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
We present a mixed integer, multi-period, cost-minimising model for a carbon capture, transport and storage (CCTS) network in Europe. The model incorpor ates endogenous decisions about carbon capture, pipeline and storage investments. The capture, flow and injection quantities are based on given costs, certificate prices, storage capacities and point source emissions. The results indicate that CCTS can theoretically contribute to the decarbonisation of Europe's energy and industrial sectors. This requires a CO2 certificate price rising to €55 per tCO2 in 2050, and sufficient CO2 storage capacity available for both on- and offshore sites. Yet CCTS deployment is highest in CO2-intensive industries where emissions cannot be avoided by fuel switching or alternative production processes. In all scenarios, the importance of the industrial sector as a first-mover to induce the deployment of CCTS is highlighted. By contrast, a decrease in available storage capacity or a more moderate increase in CO2 prices will significantly reduce the role of CCTS as a CO2 mitigation technology, especially in the energy sector. Furthermore, continued public resistance to onshore CO2 storage can only be overcome by constructing expensive offshore storage. Under this restriction, reaching the same levels of CCTS penetration would require a doubling of CO2 certificate prices.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Europe

10984. Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage in Europe: A problematic energy bridge to nowhere?

Author:
Christian von Hirschhausen, Johannes Herold, and Sophia Rüster
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper summarises the findings of work package 5.3 of the SECURE project, with regard to the role of carbon capture, transport and storage (CCTS) for the future European supply security of coal. The real issue in European supply security with respect to coal is the absence of an economically and politically sustainable use of coal for electricity, liquefaction, gasification, etc. Whereas earlier papers delivered for work package 5.3 on the coal sector indicated that there are few risks to the European energy supply of (steam) coal, there is an implicit supply security threat, i.e. that coal will no longer be an essential element of European energy supply because the CCTS rollout will be delayed or not be carried out at all. This thesis is substantiated in this subsequent paper, with more technical details and some case study evidence.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

10985. Is the euro really a 'teuro'? Effects of introducing the euro on prices of everyday non-tradables in Slovakia

Author:
Miroslav Beblavý
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper looks at the Slovak experience with euro adoption from the point of view of perceived versus actual inflation and with a focus on a specific set of non-tradable prices. It examines whether Slovak consumers experienced or perceived (or both) an unusual price jump at the time of euro adoption and the possible explanations for such a phenomenon.
Topic:
Economics and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Slovakia

10986. A Third Lebanon War: CPA Contingency Planning

Author:
Daniel C. Kurtzer
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Lebanon has been a flashpoint for Arab-Israeli violence and military confrontations since the mid1970s. Its political system is weak and outside parties continue to vie for political advantage as part of a larger regional conflict. In particular, Syria and Iran provide support for the militant Islamist group Hezbollah as a strategic asset to pressure Israel. Hezbollah now controls most of southern Lebanon, while its political wing has developed a strong presence in the Lebanese parliament. In July and August 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought what became known as the “Second Lebanon War,” which killed and displaced many thousand s of people and destroyed much of Lebanon's infrastructure. Since then Hezbollah has steadily rearmed in contravention of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which requires, inter alia, “the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, so that, pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of July 27, 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese state” and “no sales or supply of arms and related materiel to Lebanon except as authorized by its government.” Hezbollah's arsenal is more potent in quantity and quality today than it was in 2006. Although the border area between Israel and Lebanon is quieter than at any time in the previous decade, speculation that a third Lebanon war will occur in the next twelve to eighteen months has been steadily rising. Israel could decide the security threat posed by Hezbollah has reached intolerable levels and take preemptive military action. Hezbollah, while outwardly showing no interest in confronting Israel at this time, may for various reasons choose or be pressured by Iran to flex its new military capabilities. As happened in 2006, even small-scale military engagements with limited objectives can escalate into a major conflict. Whatever the precipitating reasons, a new conflict over Lebanon would have significant implications for U.S. policy and interests in the region.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, War, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, United Nations, Lebanon, and Syria

10987. Electoral Violence in Nigeria: CPA Contingency Planning

Author:
John Campbell
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Nigeria is a country of overlapping regional, religious, and ethnic divisions. Rifts between the North and the South of the country, ethnic groups, and Islam and Christianity often coincide and have sometimes resulted in sectarian violence. This has been the case particularly in its geographical center and in the Niger Delta region. In the Middle Belt, as the former is called, bouts of retributive bloodshed between Christian farmers and Muslim pastoralists erupt with some frequency. In the Niger Delta, an insurrection against the Abuja government has been raging for more than a decade over regional, ethnic, and environmental grievances. In all, credible observers ascribe over twelve thousand deaths since 1999 to ethnic, religious, and regional conflict in Nigeria.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

10988. Military Escalation in Korea: CPA Contingency Planning

Author:
Paul B. Stares
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Tensions ran perilously high on the Korean peninsula in the months after the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan on March 26, 2010, which claimed the lives of forty-six sailors. An international investigation subsequently attributed the incident to a North Korean torpedo attack, prompting both South Korea and the United States to impose new punitive measures on the regime in Pyongyang and to conduct a series of high-profile naval exercises to deter further provocations. These actions elicited an especially vituperative response from North Korea, including the threat to unleash a “retaliatory sacred war.”
Topic:
Conflict Prevention and War
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

10989. Promise, Peril for Iraq's New Government: Interview with Joost Hiltermann

Author:
Bernard Gwertzman (interviewer)
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
After nine months of political wrangling, Iraq's parliament confirmed Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's new coalition government December 21. Though the government is "a good basis for setting out," says Iraq expert Joost Hiltermann, there's much uncertainty about how cohesive it will be and whether the inclusive government formed can govern. Hiltermann says there are questions about who will head the three major security ministries, whether a new National Council for Strategic Policy--designed as a "real check" against Maliki's power--will be approved by parliament, and whether Ayad Allawi, who headed the Iraqiya bloc that won the most seats in the election, will want to head that council. The United States pushed a power-sharing agreement "that went beyond the sharing of ministerial positions," says Hiltermann, but it remains to be seen whether various factions, including the prime minister and his allies, will allow that to happen.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Government, Politics, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

10990. Tanzania's Land Law Reform: The Implementation Challenge

Author:
Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
A new wave of land reforms has passed Sub-Saharan African countries in recent years. Tanzania got its reform in 1999. Though expectations to outcomes are high, not much is known about how reforms affect local governance of land. This working paper provides an overview of implementation projects carried out in Mainland Tanzania and describes experiences gathered so far. It focuses on establishment of formal institutions for land administration and dispute settlement in rural areas. The implementation process is described as slow and uneven. With a few exceptions, implementation has been project-driven, largely controlled by donors and implementing agencies. At the same time the responsible ministry retains some control through its know-how, which is shared with other stakeholders in bits and pieces only. The paper concludes that more resources, more commitment and a freer flow of information is required if reform objectives are to be achieved. Independent research is urgently needed.
Topic:
Development and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

10991. Quelle politique pour l'UE au Zimbabwe aujourd'hui?

Author:
Vincent Darracq
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Après l'entrée en vigueur au Zimbabwe du Global Political Agreement (GPA) en septembre 2008 et la formation du Gouvernement d'Unité nationale (GNU) rassemblant ZANU-PF et opposition en février 2009, la politique européenne n'a pas connu de modification fondamentale : elle s'articule toujours autour d'un double arsenal de « sanctions » établi en 2002, constitué de mesures restrictives et appropriées, et seulement révisé à la marge en février 2010. De nouveaux développements ont cependant eu lieu : la reprise du dialogue politique dans le cadre de l'Article 8 de l'Accord de Cotonou et une augmentation substantielle d'une aide humanitaire s'apparentant à de l'aide au développement qui ne dit pas son nom. Une relation nouvelle s'est également engagée sur le sujet entre l'UE et l'Afrique du Sud, l'acteur régional dominant, depuis l'arrivée au pouvoir à Pretoria du président Jacob Zuma en mai 2009. Sur le problème zimbabwéen, l'Afrique du Sud s'est imposée depuis 2000 comme l'interlocuteur et l'intermédiaire incontournable, et a de fait pris en charge, sous mandats de l'Union Africaine, de la SADC ou du Commonwealth, les discussions successives entre acteurs zimbabwéens. Sous Zuma, les échanges UE-Afrique du Sud sur la question zimbabwéenne sont plus francs et cordiaux. La tenue probable d'élections anticipées en 2011 a en particulier été identifiée par les deux partenaires comme une opportunité de travailler en bonne entente pour favoriser une sortie de crise. Mais l'Afrique du Sud reste contrainte dans son action par la SADC, ce qui incarne la dimension proprement régionale de la crise zimbabwéenne, et par l'intransigeance de l'UE sur sa politique de sanctions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

10992. Peacebuilding in Asia: refutation or cautious engagement?

Author:
Amaia Sánchez Cacicedo
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
This Occasional Paper explores the features and implications of an 'Asian' approach to peacebuilding and seeks to define what is distinctive about this approach. In attempting to answer this question, the author aims to establish what characterises peacebuilding activities undertaken by Asian countries and how their attitudes to peacebuilding differ from Western-dominated mainstream views of peacebuilding. It is argued here that in an Asian context peacebuilding is conditioned by a Westphalian vision of the world as opposed to the post-Westphalian views of liberal interventionists. Thus, for Asian countries peacebuilding does not imply conflict resolution activities along the lines of peacemaking. Instead, peacebuilding practice in Asia is exercised through peacekeeping and economic assistance flows. Official involvement in a country's internal political affairs, including humanitarian interventions that involve the use of force, or in domestic peace processes is commonly avoided. Yet, as in Western contexts, there is a growing niche for civil society in Asian peacebuilding activities as well as in the domain of non-traditional security issues. This development is explored in this paper. As a way of structuring the analysis, a distinction is made between peacebuilding within and beyond the Asian region, a key factor in influencing different actors' approach. In the context of peacebuilding activities undertaken within Asia, the emphasis is on the nurturing of bilateral relationships and on 'limited' multilateral peacebuilding. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is examined as a case study in order to explore this last aspect further. When looking into Asian actors' peacebuilding activities beyond the region, the cases of China, India and Japan are addressed. With the exception of Japan, the other countries under scrutiny in this paper have focused the bulk of their peacebuilding activities outside the region to contributing troops to UN Peacekeeping Operations (UNPKO), hence the emphasis on the latter. In the conclusion, the existence of common features that distinguish a cautious Asian engagement in mainstream peacebuilding activities is confirmed; however, caution is different from complete refutation. Indeed, the Westphalian nature of Asian actors' approach to peacebuilding pervades both the regional and the global spheres, although the challenges are inevitably bigger at a global level. This further explains differences in motivation as well as in attitudes to the purpose of peacebuilding among Asian actors at different levels of analysis as addressed in this paper.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Peace Studies, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Israel and Asia

10993. Transforming the Quartet principles: Hamas and the Peace Process

Author:
Carolin Goerzig
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Despite the clear necessity of an inclusive approach that involves all relevant actors, the Middle East Quartet (comprising the United Nations, the United States, the European Union and Russia) has made political and financial cooperation with the Palestinian Authority dependent on the recognition of the three Quartet principles — the recognition of Israel, the renunciation of violence and adherence to previous diplomatic agreements — in exchange for the recognition of a Palestinian government. But instead of compelling Hamas to consider compliance, the Quartet principles have in fact led the group to become more entrenched in its defiant stance. There is a fundamental problem with the three Quartet conditions. While decision-makers proclaim that the three principles come as a package and are inseparable, it is precisely the fact that they are so interlocked and that Hamas is required to comply with them simultaneously that makes compliance problematic. This is the case because the three principles are mutually constraining to such an extent that complying with one principle effectively prevents Hamas from complying with another. Originally, the three Quartet principles were intended as a basis or a framework for a potential peace process. They define the conditions a negotiating partner has to fulfil in order to take part in Middle East peace talks. In reality, however, they have acted as an impediment. This paper seeks to find a way of overcoming the constraints that the EU has imposed upon itself by insisting on simultaneous adherence to the three Quartet principles. It looks at what room for manoeuvre there remains for the EU within the framework of the Quartet conditions and at how they can be modified in such a way that they facilitate rather than obstruct compliance.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Politics, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and United Nations

10994. Power, Politics, and Change: How International Actors Assess Local Context

Author:
Paul Romita and Vanessa Wyeth
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
In recent years, donor governments and international organizations such as the UN and the World Bank have developed a number of frameworks and tools to assess governance, conflict, and fragility. This report argues that there are multiple, and often contradictory, objectives underlying the development and use of such assessment tools. Underpinning this multiplicity of objectives are deep assumptions, many of which remain unstated. Different agencies tend to define the problem through their own institutional lens, and the assessment tools they create reflect these biases. As the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development—Development Assistant Committee's (OECD-DAC's) work on governance assessments has pointed out, assumptions underlying governance assessment methodologies are usually not explicit, but tend to measure governance against existing norms in OECD countries. Similarly, the different approaches to conflict assessment adopted by major bilateral and multilateral actors demonstrate conceptual and intellectual differences in their understanding of the nature of conflict; the same may be said for various donors' approaches to assessing state fragility.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United Nations

10995. North Korea: The Risks of War in the Yellow Sea

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Yellow Sea off the Korean peninsula has become a potential flashpoint for a wider conflict. An escalating series of confrontations by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has seen the sinking of a Republic of Korea (ROK) naval vessel and the shelling of civilian settlements on an island near the boundary. The disputed nature of this maritime boundary, known as the Northern Limit Line (NLL), as well as the volatility of DPRK politics has created a serious risk that any further provocation might turn into a wider conflict. While international attention is once again focused on the North's nuclear program, there is an urgent need to implement measures that could reduce the possibility of a clash in the Yellow Sea becoming something worse.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
South Korea, North Korea, and Island

10996. Corruption and Public Procurement

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Transparency International
Abstract:
Public procurement affects all aspects of people's lives and assumes a large share of government budgets. The acquisition of buildings and land by municipal and national governments, the construction of roads, the provision of health and education services, and the construction and operation of drinking water and sanitation systems are just a few examples of public investments that involve procurement. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has estimated the value of government procurement markets worldwide to be US$ 2 trillion annually. Wherever such large quantities of money change hands, the risk of corruption is high.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, Health, and Infrastructure

10997. Regulating the Revolving Door

Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Transparency International
Abstract:
In recent years, the public sector has developed an increasingly close relationship with the private sector. The rise of public-private partnerships, the continued push toward privatisation, the increased role of lobbying, and the reliance on public contracting have all put government in more intimate contact with business.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, and Politics

10998. After the Conflict: Nation-Building and Corruption

Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Transparency International
Abstract:
Globally, there are 26 ongoing armed conflicts and nearly onesixth of the world's population lives in so-called 'weak governance' zones. In 2009 alone, the United Nations estimated that 42 million people were displaced due to conflict and persecution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Corruption, and Development
Political Geography:
United Nations

10999. Corruption in Logging Licenses Concessions

Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Transparency International
Abstract:
Corruption is one of the main drivers of illegal logging. It runs through the whole timber production and marketing chain. Corruption in logging is fuelled by a range of factors, such as the lack of institutional capacity to monitor and enforce existing legal and policy frameworks, low transparency and accountability, and overall weak governance.
Topic:
Corruption, Globalization, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States

11000. Corruption and Gender in Service Delivery: The Unequal Impacts

Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Transparency International
Abstract:
It is increasingly recognised that gender acts as a lens to magnify the impacts of corruption, particularly when it comes to service delivery in developing countries. Corruption in the provision of basic services such as health and education can have disproportionate and negative consequences for women and girls. It can seriously compromise their access to quality schools and clinics, their own social and economic empowerment and even their country's prospects for growth, gender equality and wider social change.
Topic:
Corruption, Development, Education, and Gender Issues