Content Type: Working Paper / Publication Year: within 5 Years / Topic:

401. De-colonising the Azerbaijan-Armenian Conflict: Breaking the Knot of Security and Dependence

Author:: Leila Alieva
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The recent military operation in the Nagorno Karabakh area reflects a broader regional transformation. Its essence is in the second attempt (with the first one in Azerbaijan 30 years ago) of changing the security paradigm, this time in Armenia, leading to de-colonisation of relations in the region. The core of this change is liberation from the dependence on Russia’s almost two centuries old patronage, with Nagorno Karabakh conflict evolving as a tool of this dependence. With all the contradictions over the territory between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and difference in current political systems, the countries seem at last to arrive to the same conclusion of Russia and her control of the Karabakh elite being one of the obstacles to the peaceful relations, reforms and integration in the West. The power balance in the region, affected by such factors as Turkey’s greater involvement, distraction of the West, Russia’s increasing isolation, besides power change in Armenia, has also contributed to the “window of opportunity” for a change of paradigms. The role and influence of the EU and the US in this process, including in deterring potential military developments, will be dependent on the perception of them by the parties as non-partisan brokers, promotion of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan as independent subjects of international relations and consistency in support of democracy.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Mediation, and Interdependence
Political Geography:: Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

402. China’s Grand Vision and the Persian Gulf

Author:: Anoushiravan Ehteshami
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: China’s engagement with Asian regions beyond its geographical periphery has grown exponentially since the 1990s and this is nowhere more evident than in West Asia and the Persian Gulf subregion. While energy drove China’s early interactions with the Gulf states, within two decades after the Cold War the relationships had evolved into much tighter networks of partnerships. China’s relations with the Gulf states, however, has not been uniform and the case studies of the United Arab Emirates and Iran highlight the complexities of China’s strategy in this subregion and the ways in which it actively pursues its diverse set of interests.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

403. The Internationalisation of the Chinese Renminbi and China’s Digital Currency Plans

Author:: Lorenzo Bencivelli and Michele Savini Zangrandi
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: China has made major reforms to boost the international standing of its currency. The global presence of the renminbi remains contained, however. This is due to China’s economic structure (a persistent current account surplus and a partially closed financial account) and the government’s grip on the economy. China is also a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) forerunner. The digital yuan (e-cny) is already active in a large scale trial. Many claim that the e-cny could provide a major boost to the internationalisation of the renminbi. However, the internationalisation of the renminbi would require major economic reforms that cannot be bypassed by the deployment of new technologies. The e-cny is therefore unlikely to boost the renminbi’s international presence. Yet, its underlying technology could be exported to other countries wishing to deploy their own-currency CBDCs. Much like with telecommunication equipment, this scenario would put China in the position of being a provider of a critical infrastructure. In the longer run, the export of e-cny technology might also facilitate the creation alternative payment networks, though this scenario is not very likely.
Topic:: Political Economy, Governance, Finance, Currency, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

404. Turkey’s Watershed Elections: A Matter of Leadership

Author:: Alessia Chiriatti
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: It has been said numerous times in the last months that the upcoming 14 May elections in Turkey will be a historical watershed for the country. A crunch point that has not yet been widely explored in these months, though, is that of leadership mechanisms and the consequences of a possible change at the helm of the country, for both its democratic transition and the trust that regional allies (EU and NATO countries above all) can place in the country. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s erratic leadership appears to be on a tightrope, challenged by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the head of the Republican People’s Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi, CHP), the largest opposition party leading the Nation Alliance (Millet İttifakı). Due to the osmotic relationship between domestic (related to social cleavages) and regional (mainly securitised) dynamics, what the new leadership of Turkey will be, will also affect the future posture of the country and the willingness (or lack thereof) of other States to establish a trusting relationship with it.
Topic:: Elections, Leadership, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Domestic Policy, and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

405. The EU and the Transformed Nuclear Context since the War in Ukraine

Author:: Clara Portela
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces in February 2022 has entirely transformed the European security landscape, bringing war to the European Union’s doorstep. Importantly, the war features a nuclear dimension that manifests itself in consequential ways, including Moscow’s nuclear sabre-rattling and its denunciation of the last surviving nuclear arms control treaty. This unleashed intriguing reactions, like a surprisingly tough resort to sanctions by the EU, or the shrinking of neutrality on the continent. However, while support for nuclear deterrence has increased in some NATO countries, support for arms control remains strong too. Meanwhile, nuclear disarmament advocates have not shifted their stance as a result of the crisis.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, European Union, Nonproliferation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

406. From Threat to Opportunity: Harnessing Climate Change to Build a Prosperous Future for Iraq and the Region

Author:: Azzam Alwash
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Climate change and environmental degradation are adding serious strain to Iraqi coping capacities and governance mechanisms in a county already struggling with elevated water scarcity, instability and demographic growth. Widely recognised as a country at high-risk from climate change, Iraq faces the urgent need to diversify its economy away from hydrocarbon resources, while developing mechanisms of cooperation and co-dependency with regional neighbours to provide sustenance and opportunities to its youthful population. Drawing on Iraq’s history as a trade hub and bread basket for the region, Iraq and its neighbours need to urgently work together to overcome divisions and plan for a better future if the challenge of climate change is to be transformed into an opportunity capable of promoting stability and integration in an increasingly fragile Middle East.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Water, Sustainable Development Goals, and Energy
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

407. Reinventing Soft Power: The Strong Impact of China’s Soft Power “Shortcomings” on the Global South

Author:: Tanina Zappone
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: After being introduced into the Chinese academic debate in the 1990s, the notion of soft power has undergone such a process of “Sinicisation” that some scholars now wonder if the original concept has been gradually “reinvented” in China. Given worsening opinions about the PRC in the US and Europe over the last years, many analysts have stressed the weakness of China’s soft power, pointing to its state-centred approach and lack of an attractive set of values to be emulated as the main shortcomings. However, China’s growing influence in the Global South shows that these analyses have misevaluated the real goals and motivations of China’s soft power. The Russia-Ukraine war provides telling examples of the successful dynamics of China’s “defensive” or “negative” version of soft power and suggests it has significant impact in the least industrialised countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Ukraine, Asia, and Global South

408. China and the Global South: Many Initiatives, One Narrative

Author:: Marina Rudyak
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Since its 2013 launch, the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has stirred heated debates. Despite Beijing framing it as win-win cooperation, concerns mounted over BRI’s risks for involved countries, especially in the Global South. China’s narrative merely signals a search for an effective communication strategy and international discourse power, while its understanding of development remains constant. Developing countries play a crucial role in China’s pursuit of global status. Firstly, it positions itself as the advocate for developing nations, promoting “diverse paths to modernisation” and “true multilateralism”. Secondly, China aims to redefine major power by prioritising development and security over liberal democracy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Infrastructure, Multilateralism, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Modernization
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Global South

409. Transitional Justice in Iraq: The Challenges of National Healing and Recovery

Author:: Rend al-Rahim
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Transitional justice in Iraq is a record of squandered opportunities and compromised institutions. Over five decades, Iraqi society has endured human rights abuses on a wide scale, perpetrated by state and non-state actors. The post 2003 era offered a chance to heal wounds and promote national recovery by adopting policies of transparent judicial accountability, equitable reparations, truth-telling and documentation, and national reconciliation to repair the torn social fabric. Instead, in the immediate aftermath of the war of 2003, a victor’s justice prevailed, which deformed the principles of transitional justice and undermined its mechanisms through rampant sectarianism, clientelism and corruption, leading to new abuses, increased strife and deepening social fissures. Twenty years into the new political order, Iraqi policy-makers must reconsider their policies and reform their mechanisms to achieve social cohesion, or risk further social fragmentation and conflict.
Topic:: Human Rights, Transitional Justice, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

410. Building Worker Power in Global Supply Chains: Lessons from Apparel, Cocoa, and Seafood

Author:: Judy Gearhart
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: This working paper is about the campaigners and worker organizers in the global South and North who have challenged the persistent lack of government and corporate accountability for workers’ rights in the apparel, cocoa, and seafood industries. The transnational coalitions that have formed across these and other industries have driven significant innovations in global supply chain governance and reshaped international trade and development policies. This paper documents and draws lessons from the transnational organizing that has enabled these groups to sustain coalitions over many years, evolve their strategies and tactics for challenging power holders, and strengthen the influence of national global South organizers.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Governance, Cocoa, Labor Rights, Supply Chains, Textile Industry, and Seafood
Political Geography:: Global South and Global North

411. Activating Spaces, Scaling Up Voices: Community-based Monitoring and Planning of Health Services in Maharashtra, India

Author:: Abhay Shukla, Shweta Marathe, Deepali Yakkundi, Trupti Malti, and Jonathan Fox
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: From 2007, the Indian government’s National Health Mission (NHM) supported civil society networks to carry out large-scale participatory monitoring to improve health service access and quality under the Community-based Monitoring and Planning (CBMP) program. In the state of Maharashtra, this social accountability initiative endured more than a decade and a half, despite constraints and unpredictable government funding. The CBMP program in Maharashtra supported state-wide civil society networks to enable active citizen participation in health oversight committees. It was rooted in a broad network of diverse community-based organizations and civil society organizations that work with socially excluded communities, led by Support for Advocacy and Training to Health Initiatives (SATHI). The CBMP network combined many social accountability tools into a multilevel strategy, using community assessments of health services and local meetings with clinic staff to inform problem-solving efforts at local, district, and state levels of the health system. This government-funded civil society initiative worked with local officials to convene public dialogues and to activate previously dormant official oversight bodies, animated by a parallel network of autonomous monitoring committees. This Working Paper presents SATHI’s analysis of the CBMP program’s strategy and institutional dynamics, and documents its lasting effects on two participatory oversight institutions: Village Health, Sanitation, and Nutrition Committees (VHSNCs)—part of local government, and Rogi Kalyan Samitis (Patient Welfare Committees)—part of the health system. Field research, carried out shortly before the pandemic, compared the activation of these hybrid oversight bodies in areas with and without a legacy of intensive CBMP action. Key findings include: Official participatory spaces for citizen engagement with the health system were much more active in districts where CBMP networks had intensively promoted grassroots capacity for voice. Frontline health system responsiveness to issues that could be addressed locally—identified as ‘CBMP-sensitive’—was very high. But the health system’s degree of responsiveness to problem-solving efforts decreased at higher levels. The period of intensive CBMP effort to build grassroots awareness and capacity was limited to six years. Nevertheless, that effort had lasting effects on the levels of activity of local hybrid health oversight bodies. The pandemic revealed additional evidence of the medium-term survival and institutional impact of CBMP-enabled social networks.
Topic:: Civil Society, Health, Governance, Accountability, Community, Monitoring, Planning, Monitoring, and and Evaluation (PME)
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

412. Local Voices, Global Action: Transnational Organizing in Apparel Supply Chains

Author:: Judy Gearhart
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: This working paper discusses transnational organizing in apparel supply chains. It learns from labor rights advocates in the global South who are building social movements, advocating for national reforms, and promoting new forms of accountability in the apparel industry. In particular, the paper examines how the Bangladesh Center for Worker Solidarity (BCWS) and Cambodia’s Center for Alliance of Labor and Human Rights (CENTRAL) have each played a critical role in advancing new agreements and monitoring their implementation. They have increasingly influenced and become leaders in the Clean Clothes Campaign Network. Based on multiple interviews with CENTRAL’s Tola Moeun and BCWS’s Kalpona Akter, the paper traces how they have worked with international allies to expose flaws in supply chain monitoring in the apparel industry. It discusses how they worked with independent trade unions to build grassroots campaigns that often preceded or inspired international campaigns. At the same time as Moeun and Akter came under threat for their national advocacy, they engaged international allies and became experts on trade policy and global supply chains. They are now not only leading proponents of enforceable, multiparty agreements between multinational corporations (MNCs) and independent trade unions, but also advocates for more effective mandatory human rights due diligence laws (MHRDD). Balancing this international advocacy with organizing for national policy reforms is a strategy made all the more necessary by the context of shrinking civic space in Bangladesh and Cambodia. Many companies are seeking to strengthen their human rights due diligence in supplier countries and to engage stakeholders in that process. At this time, the perspectives and experience of BCWS and CENTRAL help identify what is needed to advance more worker-centered approaches. Three sets of lessons emerge about what is needed to sustain transnational supply chain advocacy movements. Firstly, movement-building and trust are vital ingredients in effective supply chain advocacy. Secondly, it is important for human rights due diligence processes to take into account risks to worker rights. Thirdly, strengthening worker voice in global supply chains requires more effective scrutiny and regulation of MNCs.
Topic:: Human Rights, Labor Issues, Supply Chains, Trade Unions, Community Organizing, and Textile Industry
Political Geography:: Bangladesh, South Asia, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia

413. Farmer Movement Oversight of Mexican Government Agricultural Programs

Author:: Jonathan Fox and Carlos García Jiménez
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: In Mexico’s state of Guerrero, a broad-based, collaborative social accountability campaign led by a network of agrarian community leaders contributed to improving a large-scale free fertilizer program, targeted at smallholders. In 2019, the newly-elected federal government took over a state government subsidy program that had been synonymous with clientelism and corruption, promising to clean it up and include access to organic fertilizer. When the program’s historic deficiencies persisted during its first year of transition to federal management, farmers responded with widespread, confrontational protest. To address this chaotic situation, veteran activists and community leaders from across the state transformed protest into proposals, launching a participatory, statewide monitoring and advocacy campaign with the Guerrero Network of Ejido and Communal Commissioners. The campaign advocated for the validation of program beneficiary rosters in community assemblies, based on federal agrarian law, also using the official public information request system. It helped to ensure the distribution of fertilizer to smallholder farmers, reduced diversion of fertilizer for corrupt or electoral purposes, and promoted more inclusion of women and indigenous smallholders. Despite these achievements, the Network’s proposals for transparency, peasant participation, accountability, and agroecological transition were rejected by the government officials responsible for the fertilizer program. In response, the campaign coordinators shifted their focus to other government agricultural programs and coordinated with agrarian leaders in other states to launch their own advocacy platforms. This organizing process led to the second Agrarian Convention of Guerrero, which included participation of agrarian leaders from a dozen other states, followed by regional meetings and state conventions in half of the country’s states. On April 10, 2023, five thousand agrarian leaders gathered in Mexico City for the First National Agrarista Convention. Reflections on this experience include: The focus of the farmer oversight campaign on immediately felt needs generated social energy and inspired a new organizing strategy. The state-wide mobilization to promote better fertilizer delivery was grounded in revitalized civic life in historic local participatory governance institutions that were created following the Mexican Revolution. Elected leaders of these ejidos and agrarian communities gave the campaign both scale and legitimacy. Though mainly driven by grassroots organizing, the farmer oversight campaign also used technical open government tools. The campaign combined the monitoring of agricultural programs and local problem-solving with social mobilization, scaling up advocacy for greater recognition of peasant movement oversight to the national level.
Topic:: Agriculture, Government, Social Movement, Farming, and Community Organizing
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

414. Mapping the Cloud: Big Tech Taking the Sky by Storm

Author:: Cecilia Rikap
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: Here I map Big Tech clouds focusing on the making of asymmetric relations with the different type of involved organizations. Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Alibaba are cloud hegemons that control every inch of their clouds. The cloud is the main means of adoption of digital technologies. As such, developers and other firms offering their services on Big Tech clouds accept the rules of a game predefined by those few giants. They even need to get enabling credentials offered by another type of subordinate actor: the companies offering trainings to get mandatory certificates for joining the cloud as providers. At the other end, customers transition to the cloud often guided and hiring the services of outsourced sales forces. After presenting all these actors and their interplay, I focus on AI as a service to explain the negative effects of such a migration at the level of organizational learning and innovation. Customers’ technological subordination and reduced learning by doing, using and interacting in the cloud has triggered mitigation strategies but only large players can afford them.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Big Tech, Corporations, Cloud Computing, and Digital Learning
Political Geography:: Global Focus

415. Rentiership and Intellectual Monopoly in Contemporary Capitalism: Conceptual Challenges and Empirical Possibilities

Author:: Joseph Baines and Sandy Brian Hager
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: The concepts of rentiership and intellectual monopoly have gained increased prominence in discussions about the transformation of global capitalism in recent years. However, there have been few if any attempts to construct measures for rentiership and intellectual monopoly using firm-level financial data. The absence of such work, we argue, is symptomatic of conceptual challenges in delineating what precisely qualifies as rent, intellectual or otherwise. In place of static conceptions of rent and intellectual monopoly, we develop a dynamic framework for analyzing the processes of rentierization and intellectual monopolization and apply this framework to the analysis of the transformation of non-financial firms in the United States since the 1950s. We find that the timing and intensity of rentierization and intellectual monopolization differs significantly across sector and firm size and is heavily mediated by the uneven ramifications of government policy across companies and industries. Overall, our framework illuminates the variegated landscape of corporate power in the US, and offers a useful guide for critically interrogating rentierization and intellectual monopolization in other contexts.
Topic:: Political Economy, Capitalism, Monopoly, and Rentiership
Political Geography:: Global Focus

416. Same End By Different Means: Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta’s Strategies to Organize Their Frontier AI Innovation Systems

Author:: Cecilia Rikap
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: I combine quantitative methodologies and in-depth interviews to analyse United States Big Tech different strategies to organize and profit from their AI corporate innovation systems (CIS). I propose 1) “frenemies” for Microsoft, because even Chinese organizations and direct competitors integrate its CIS. 2) “University” for Google, whose AI strategy included leaving DeepMind autonomous to explore more fundamental AI but appropriation mechanisms are not translating into a clear business advantage. 3) “Secrecy” for Amazon, given its large concern with secrecty and profiting from AI. 4) And “application-centred” for Facebook; its AI CIS is the narrowest, mostly attached to its platforms.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Big Tech, and Corporations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

417. Hazardous Drinking in Privatized Industrial Towns of Russia

Author:: Alexi Gugushvili, Aytalina Azarova, Darja Irdam, and Lawrence King
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Hazardous drinking, defined as the consumption of homemade, unofficially made alcohol and non-beverages, is prevalent and accounts for a high proportion of alcohol-related deaths in Russia. Individual-level characteristics are important explanations of hazardous drinking, but they are unlikely to explain spatial variation in this type of alcohol consumption. Areas that attracted insufficient attention in the research of hazardous drinking are the legacy of industrialization and the speed of economic reforms mainly through the privatization policy of major enterprises in the 1990s. Applying multilevel mixed-effects logistic regressions to a unique dataset from 30 industrial towns in the European part of Russia, we find that in addition to individual-level characteristics such as gender, age, marital status, education, social isolation, labor market status, and material deprivation, the types of towns where individuals resided such as industrial structure and speed of privatization also accounted for the variance in hazardous alcohol consumption among both males and females.
Topic:: Privatization, Alcohol, Public Health, and Industry
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

418. Paying with Austerity: The Debt Crisis and Restructuring in Sri Lanka

Author:: C. P. Chandrasekhar, Jayati Ghosh, and Debamanyu Das
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: On April 12, 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on external debt service commitments. Announcing the “pre-emptive default,” pending restructuring, the government also announced that it was suspending repayments due in 2022 on its external debt. By May, Sri Lanka was formally in default, becoming the first country in the Asia-Pacific region to default on debt in two decades. There were medium-term factors that underlay the crisis, not least of which was the chronic dependence on foreign finance, especially debt, to cover widening current account deficits that followed the IMF-inspired and dictated embrace of liberalization policies starting in the late 1970s. In recent years, following the global financial crisis and the end of the civil war in 2009, this dependence on external borrowings intensified. There was also a dramatic shift towards bilaterally, besides multilaterally, financed investment projects and increasing reliance on the bond market, partly to meet debt service commitments on accumulated debt. Given this vulnerability, a crisis was precipitated by a collapse in foreign exchange receipts during the Covid pandemic, due to falling exports, near-zero tourist arrivals and reduced remittances and the subsequent spike in the outflow of foreign exchange because of the speculation-induced rise in the prices of fuel and food. This paper details the events which culminated in the Sri Lankan debt crisis, assesses the appropriateness of the official, IMF-prescribed strategy of adjustment and debt restructuring, considers the experience with restructuring thus far, and explores alternatives that would have been, and could still be, less regressive and ensure sustainable development.
Topic:: Debt, Political Economy, Finance, Austerity, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: South Asia and Sri Lanka

419. The International Monetary Fund and Neonatal Mortality Rates, 1985-2018

Author:: Shih-Yen Pan, Michael Ash, Bridget Diana, Lawrence King, Joseph Lavallee, Ta Minh Quan, and Elias Nosrati
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: In 2015, 193 nations committed to UN Sustainable Development Goal 3·2, which aims to reduce child mortality rates by 2030. Despite progress, challenges remain, especially in low- and middle-income countries. International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending programs may influence these outcomes through structural adjustments which prioritise macroeconomic stability over public spending. In this study, we examine the impact of IMF interventions on neonatal mortality, addressing concerns about existing analyzes with a novel statistical approach.
Topic:: Political Economy, History, Sustainable Development Goals, Macroeconomics, IMF, and Infant Mortality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

420. Caste and Space in Indian Cities

Author:: Vamsi Vakulabharanam and Sripad Motiram
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the interaction between caste relations and city space, and its impact on economic development in Indian cities. Much of the literature on caste has focused on rural India, although there is a recent and growing literature that examines caste and caste-based discrimination in cities. We focus on this strand, particularly, studies that have examined caste-based residential segregation in cities. Recent studies have argued that Indian cities are highly segregated along caste lines. Using a socio-spatial methodology, and data from a spatially representative survey that we specially designed to uniquely explore city spaces, we too establish that there is high segregation at the smallest residential spatial scale. However, as expected, there is considerably less segregation at higher spatial scales. What is less known is that Indian cities are much less segregated in terms of caste than American cities are in terms of race at this comparable higher spatial scale. This also has an important consequence - greater integration at this higher spatial scale has important material benefits - economic development defined in terms of lower poverty and higher educational attainment is significantly higher, both for the overall population and for deprived social groups.
Topic:: Discrimination, Caste, Economic Development, Cities, Segregation, and Public Space
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

421. Climate Adaptation and Job Creation: Addressing the Climate and Livelihoods Crises in India

Author:: Anjana Thampi
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: India was seventh in a list of the ten most affected countries due to extreme weather events in 2019. A sharp increase in the frequency and intensity of such events in the country by the end of the twenty-first century is projected. At the same time, relatively high economic growth rates have not resulted in secure and sustainable employment opportunities in the Indian economy. The loss of millions of jobs due to climate hazards in the country is also projected. In this context, I raise two key questions. First, are livelihoods in certain regions within India more vulnerable to climatic changes? The priority regions for adaptation planning and intervention are identified by constructing a livelihoods vulnerability index. Second, can institutional climate adaptation activities simultaneously address the climate and livelihoods crises in the country? The job creation estimates through five representative adaptation activities support the need for increased spending in a climate adaptation programme. Spending 1.5 percent of the GDP on a climate adaptation programme could create jobs to the extent of 1.3 percent of the labour force as of 2017-18. Investing 3 percent of the GDP on a combined climate adaptation and mitigation programme over the same amount spent instead on a fossil fuel-based programme would lead to net employment gains of around 2 percent of the labour force. This paper argues that investing in climate adaptation activities can secure livelihoods while improving mechanisms to build resilience to climate hazards. Such activities, if planned and implemented in accordance with the geographies, vulnerabilities, and socio-economic patterns of each region, could be transformational.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economic Growth, Job Creation, Adaptation, and Livelihoods
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

422. Exchange Rate Arrangements: Fix, Float, or Manage?

Author:: Nathaniel Cline, Carlos Schönerwald da Silva, and Matias Vernengo
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The paper tries to provide a concise summary of the main debates on exchange rate arrangements. It a simple taxonomy of exchange rate arrangements, fixed, flexible and managed, and a brief analysis of the main debates about their advantages and disadvantages. It emphasizes the different policy objectives of mainstream and heterodox schools of thought, suggesting that they tend to be more relevant than the specific defense of one particular exchange rate arrangement. In that sense, there are divergences on their preferences within schools of thought. The paper also discusses the causes of currency crises and the role of the dollar in the international monetary system.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Crisis Management, Exchange Rate Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:: Global Focus

423. Structural Changes and Dominance of Finance in Contemporary Capitalism

Author:: Sunanda Sen
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Structural changes in economies as have taken place in in majority of economies in terms of the sector-wise contribution to their aggregate output as well as employment include a rising share of the services sector, often exceeding one-half of the GDP. Services include, in addition to other activities, the high value financial activities, having weights disproportionately large. Thus the rising share of services to the GDP implies simultaneous rise in share of financial activities to the GDP as well. Analyses in literature explain structural changes by relative profitability as prime mover of changes, similar to financialisation of economies. In this a circuitous link between socio- political and economic-forces and the changing weight (power relations) can be observed. With capitalism taking a multi-layered structure, the path of finance to dominance may be along a variety of trajectories including vertical shifts from real to financial activities. The quantitative strength of finance is reinforced by socio political forces as alliances. The path may face a crisis led by fundamental uncertainty where agents are ignorant of the future, and the path keeps changing by actions of agents themselves. With knowledge unattainable, ‘conventions’ help agents, as Keynes held, the calming of nerves, forming collectively a “conventional process of expectation formation”. This forms a major theoretical innovation of Keynes which brings in expectation formation and decision making by agents based on custom, habit, tradition, instinct as relevant in a model of human agency faced with fundamental uncertainty.
Topic:: Political Economy, GDP, Employment, Capitalism, Finance, and Keynes
Political Geography:: Global Focus

424. Gold in Ghana: A Story of Unbalanced Exchange

Author:: Léonce Ndikumana and William Godfred Cantah
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: his paper presents the historical and institutional context of the development of the gold sector in Ghana, which sets the stage for examining the contribution of the sector to the economy and its exposure to capital flight. The analysis sheds light on the important role that the regulatory framework and the fiscal regime that govern the gold sector have played in perpetuating a system of unequal distribution of gains from gold exploitation in terms of tax revenue and foreign exchange earnings in favour of foreign gold companies. The statistical analysis of gold export statistics reveals substantial discrepancies between Ghana’s gold exports and the recorded value of imports by its trading partners. These differences point to export underinvoicing as a conduit of capital flight, while also exhibiting a systematic lack of transparency and inconsistencies vis-a-vis established international conventions governing the recording of trade transactions, especially in the case of gold destined for South Africa which does not show up in the latter’s import statistics. Overall, the analysis suggests that the gains from the gold sector remain much below potential, but that at the same time there may be room for reforms that can improve the benefits from gold exploitation for the country.
Topic:: Development, Regulation, Capital Flight, Exchange Rates, and Gold
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and Ghana

425. Cocoa in Ghana, the ‘Political Crop’: Does State Control Shield the Cocoa Sector from Exposure to Capital Flight?

Author:: Léonce Ndikumana and Kwame Adjai-Mantey
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Since its introduction into Ghana in the 19th century, cocoa has been considered a strategic crop, over which the post-independence governments have maintained substantial control. Cocoa is indeed referred to as a ‘political crop.’ The cocoa sector is closely regulated by the government through the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD). This paper aims to investigate whether this special industrial organization structure and the strict regulation help minimize the sector’s exposure to capital flight that would otherwise occur through export misinvoicing and leakage of foreign exchange earnings from cocoa exports. Indeed, compared to the gold sector in Ghana and the cocoa sector in neighboring Côte d’Ivoire, both of which are fully liberalized and dominated by foreign corporations, the cocoa sector in Ghana exhibits relatively little evidence of export misinvoicing. Moreover, cocoa export earnings are fully repatriated as they are in the hands of COCOBOD. The analysis, however, indicates that the gains from the cocoa sector in terms of contributions to GDP, tax revenue, and poverty reduction remain sub-optimal. This suggests that there is substantial room for improvement of these outcomes through targeted reforms and policy interventions at the sectoral level.
Topic:: Political Economy, Reform, Exports, Capital Flight, and Cocoa
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

426. Capital Flight from Natural Resource-Dependent African Countries: Updated Estimates and Analysis for the Cases of Cameroon, Ghana, and Zambia, 1970-2021

Author:: Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper is part of a project that investigates domestic and global drivers and enablers of capital flight from Cameroon, Ghana, and Zambia, three countries that are significantly endowed in natural resources. It presents estimates of capital flight from these three countries and discusses the key drivers of the phenomenon. The results show that as of 2021, estimated total capital flight stood at $71.1 billion for Cameroon, $50 billion for Ghana, and $71.5 billion for Zambia. External borrowing and, in the cases of Zambia and Cameroon, trade misinvoicing, are key correlates of capital flight. While external borrowing directly and indirectly drives capital flight, trade misinvoicing constitutes an important mechanism of unrecorded cross-border capital flows. This study contributes to the efforts to uncover the mechanisms and enablers of capital flight from Africa, with the aim of shedding light on possible strategies to curb further capital outflows in the context of efforts to scale up and diversify development financing to support recovery from global crises, the transition to green growth, and sustainable development in Africa.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Capital Flight, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, Zambia, Ghana, and Cameroon

427. Optimal Inflation Targeting With Anchoring

Author:: Thomas Michl
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper presents an alternative foundation to the standard quadratic loss function characterizing central bank inflation policy. The alternative treats high employment as a social benefit. In recognition of the inherent asymmetry of the output gap, two self-imposed constraints provide guardrails that rule out excess unemployment and opportunistic reflation. The loss function includes a novel reverse discounting mechanism that penalizes the bank for more sustained inflation gaps that could undermine confidence in the central bank’s target. In the absence of anchoring, the central bank is obliged to use economic slack to accomplish a disinflation but the presence of anchoring creates greater policy flexibility freeing it from the tyranny of the sacrifice ratio. The central bank’s optimal policy differs dramatically from the standard Taylor Rule recommendation in choosing policy plans with higher employment, in its willingness to overshoot inflation targets, and in avoiding excess unemployment, all while observing the discipline needed for successful inflation targeting.
Topic:: Economics, Employment, Banks, and Inflation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

428. The Socioeconomic and Gendered Organization of Social Reproduction in the Anglo-American Welfare Model: Transformations in the US and UK over Four Decades

Author:: Katherine Moos and Pilar Gonalons-Pons
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Drawing on both gender regime theory and social reproduction theory, this paper employs survey data to offer a quantitative comparative analysis of the socioeconomic and gendered organization of social reproduction in the United States and United Kingdom from 1973 to 2013. Our analysis focuses on household production, paid work, and government social benefits to examine how men and women of different socioeconomic groups contribute to household social reproduction. We combine data from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), the Multinational Time-Use Surveys (MTUS), and additional sources to construct an integrated dataset of harmonized household survey data. We find that household social reproduction in the US and UK reflect variations and path dependence within the Anglo-American model. While our results illustrate important shifts in the organization of social reproduction related to neoliberalism and feminism, we do not observe that social reproduction in either country has been fundamentally destabilized, refamiliarized, or degendered.
Topic:: Welfare, Socioeconomics, Gender, and Social Reproduction
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and United States of America

429. Not So Clear: Revisiting the Impacts of Cap-and-Trade on Environmental Justice

Author:: Michael Ash and Manuel Pastor
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: A recent article by Danae Hernandez-Cortes and Kyle Meng (HCM) suggests that the cap-and-trade program in California was accompanied by improvements in the degree of environmental inequity in the state. We note that that the model used to estimate this improvement is not well-designed to capture the variation in facility adjustment to the cap-and-trade program that is at the heart of the environmental justice debate about potential shifts in co-pollutant exposure. We also show that even if that were a proper approach, the estimates offered by HCM may be problematic due to data issues, including proper identification of facilities subject to the cap, shifting results when we require that facilities have observations both before and after the cap, and robustness when we apply their method estimates beyond their selected subsample to the broader range of facilities. As such, the environmental justice implications of California’s carbon market remain an unsettled empirical question.
Topic:: Inequality, Trade, Pollution, and Environmental Justice
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

430. China’s Changing COVID-19 Policies: Market and Public Health

Author:: Zhun Xu
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: After the outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020, China took fast and decisive measures to successfully contain the spread of the virus within its borders. While the rest of the world saw huge human and social costs in the pandemic, the Chinese mainland for about two years was largely free from COVID. The zero-COVID model, however, met great challenges by early 2022. Despite some efforts to save the zero-COVID model, in November 2022, the Chinese government abruptly abandoned its signature COVID controls during the pandemic and switched to the opposite. This article reviews the evolution of the Chinese COVID policies and places the dramatic turns in the context of the changing Chinese political economy. The findings show that the shifting class interests and actions were an important force behind China’s retreat from zero- COVID.
Topic:: Markets, Political Economy, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

431. The Crisis of Capitalism, the Noun

Author:: Nancy Folbre
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper explores the challenges that feminist theory, stratification economics, and intersectionality pose to the characterization of capitalism as a unitary system. Attention to the structural basis for inequalities based on gender and race weakens traditional Marxian concepts of exploitation based on the appropriation of surplus value. On the other hand, the continuing relevance of many forms of collective conflict heightens appreciation of the ways in which capitalist institutions discourage the forms of cooperation necessary to address both ecological threats and shortfalls in care provision.
Topic:: Economics, Race, Capitalism, Intersectionality, Gender, and Feminist Theory
Political Geography:: Global Focus

432. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequality

Author:: Aaron Medlin and Gerald Epstein
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This study analyzes the impact of conventional expansionary monetary policy on wealth inequality in the United States from 1976 to 2012. We use the local projections instrumental variable (LP-IV) approach for our estimation method and employ two monetary shock series to identify the causal effect. High-frequency data is obtained on the distribution of real net wealth and the Gini index from two new sources: Realtime Inequality and the Federal Reserve’s Distributional Financial Accounts (DFA). We find that expansionary monetary policy has positive and persistent effects on wealth inequality over the medium term, in contrast to previous research. Specifically, an expansionary policy of 100 basis points cut in the policy rate increases the share of wealth for the top 10 and 1 percent and reduces the share for the bottom 50 and middle 40 percent of the distribution. Overall, wealth inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, increases around 0.005 on the Gini scale (between 0 and 1) with Realtime data and around 0.015 using DFA data. We also find that the effect size of expansionary policy on inequality varies over prior decades; the effects between 1976 and 1980 are smaller and transient relative to the periods since. We also find that expansionary policy increases wealth inequality regardless of the business cycle. However, its effects are more substantial during economic expansions. Lastly, we estimate the historical contribution of monetary policy to the variation in wealth distribution and find that it does account for significant variations in wealth distribution during certain periods of recent U.S. history.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve, Economic Inequality, and Wealth Distribution
Political Geography:: Global Focus

433. Factsheet: Giorgia Meloni

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Giorgia Meloni was elected Prime Minister of Italy in 2022. In 2012, she co-founded the neo-fascist Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy), which she has been leading since 2014. Since 2020, she has been the president of the European Conservatives and Reformists Party (ECR). Meloni is known for making many anti-Muslim comments during her election campaigns.
Topic:: Migration, Islamophobia, Far Right, Muslims, Giorgia Meloni, and Alt-Right
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

434. Factsheet: Vienna Forum on Countering Segregation and Extremism in the Context of Integration

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The Vienna Forum on Countering Segregation and Extremism in the Context of Integration was initiated by Austrian Minister of Women and Integration Susanne Raab (ÖVP) to make Vienna “a center in the fight against political Islam.” Eleven European countries are part of the conference. Once a year, the forum brings together ministers and bureaucrats from several European countries alongside hundreds of terrorism and deradicalization experts, some of whom are known to advocate for policies that criminalize Muslim civil society.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Integration, Regional Organizations, and Susanne Raab
Political Geography:: Europe and Austria

435. Factsheet: Manfred Weber

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Manfred Weber is a German politician who has served as President of the European People’s Party (EPP) since 2022, and as Leader of the EPP Group in the European Parliament since 2014. He has been a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) from Germany since 2004. He is a member of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), which is a member of the EPP. Weber has made statements alleging that Muslims and Islam are a threat to European culture.
Topic:: European Union, Islamophobia, Catholic Church, Xenophobia, Christian Social Union, and European People's Party (EPP)
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Austria

436. Factcheck: Christchurch Terror Attacks on Mosques

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: In March 2019, a white supremacist opened fire at two mosques in Christchurch, Aotearoa New Zealand, killing 51 people and live-streaming the entire attack on Facebook. The perpetrator published a manifesto outlining his racist, Islamophobic, and xenophobic views. Following the attack, the Royal Commission of Inquiry highlighted the lack of official resources devoted to countering far-right extremism. In the aftermath, ongoing dialogues between the Muslim community and the government were established, significant changes made to the firearms licensing system, and a global initiative launched to eliminate violent extremist content online.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Far Right, Mass Shootings, and Muslims
Political Geography:: New Zealand and Christchurch

437. Factsheet: Magnus Ranstorp

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Magnus Ranstorp is an associate professor of political science. Since 2022, he has been the head of research at the Center for Total Defense and Societal Security (CTSS). He regularly publishes opinion pieces and is invited to media outlets as an expert on various subjects. Ranstorp has promoted conspiracy theories accusing European Muslim organizations of being tied to the Muslim Brotherhood, and is a leading voice against Muslim civil society in Sweden.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Islamism, Muslim Brotherhood, and Magnus Ranstorp
Political Geography:: Europe and Sweden

438. Factsheet: Sameh Egyptson

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Sameh Egyptson is a Swedish academic and highly visible public commentator. He is hired as an expert by public agencies and right-wing political parties. Egyptson is engaged in spreading conspiracy theories about an alleged Islamization of Sweden by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Academia, Muslim Brotherhood, and Sameh Egyptson
Political Geography:: Europe and Sweden

439. Factsheet: Vishwa Hindu Parishad of America (VHPA)

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Vishwa Hindu Parishad of America (VHPA) is a Hindu far-right organization and the US offshoot of India’s Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), designated as a “militant religious organization” by the Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) World Factbook for a number of years. VHPA’s leaders have a history of making anti-Muslim remarks, it has platformed far-right Hindu nationalists and recently has targeted American Muslim politicians and rights organizations who call attention to the persecution of Muslims and rising Hindu nationalism in India.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Far Right, Narendra Modi, Political Extremism, Vishwa Hindu Parishad of America (VHPA), and Hindu Nationalism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

440. Factsheet: Friedrich Merz

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Friedrich Merz is a German politician. In 2022, he became the leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and leader of the CDU parliamentary group in the German federal parliament, the Bundestag. He has made anti-Muslim comments and represents the conservative right-wing camp within his party.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, and Friedrich Merz
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

441. Factsheet: Coalition of Hindus of North America (CoHNA)

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Coalition of Hindus of North America (CoHNA) is a Marietta, Georgia-based Hindu right-wing advocacy organization known for targeting critics of Hindu nationalism and those who highlight the persecution of religious minorities, particularly Muslims and Christians in India. CoHNA supports the discriminatory policies of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and has engaged in campaigns targeting academics and politicians who call attention to the dangers of Hindu nationalism. Leaders of CoHNA also share close associations with far-right Hindu nationalist individuals and groups.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Far Right, Vishwa Hindu Parishad of America (VHPA), Hindu Nationalism, and Coalition of Hindus of North America (CoHNA)
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

442. Factsheet: War on Drugs: Surveillance

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The US War on Drugs has used surveillance to aid in policing, curb the international drug trade, and enforce drug prohibition since 1971. Technologies and techniques used as part of the “war” include wiretapping, aerial surveillance drones, thermal imaging, GPS tracking, entrapment, the use of informants, and parallel construction. The use of surveillance has raised Fourth Amendment concerns about protection from unreasonable searches and seizures, and further human rights concerns about privacy. The US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) has been at the forefront of the War on Drugs’ surveillance efforts, and has often collaborated with the National Security Agency (NSA). These surveillance efforts laid the groundwork for the US War on Terror, particularly the 2001 PATRIOT Act.
Topic:: War on Drugs, Surveillance, Islamophobia, and Muslims
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

443. Factsheet: War on Terror

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The Global War on Terror (GWoT) is an international military campaign launched by the United States under President George W. Bush following the September 11th, 2001 attacks by Al-Qaeda. Dubbed the ‘Forever Wars,’ this conflict is a borderless and timeless campaign that has touched nearly 40 percent of the world, cost the United States an estimated $8 trillion, and has killed more than 900,000 people (although the actual death toll is likely to be much higher). The WoT discourse amplified Islamophobia as it dehumanized Muslims by tying them to terrorism and constructing them as ‘inherently violent’ and a threat. Along with formal military warfare, the WoT has also comprised of large-scale surveillance measures in the U.S, torture, global drone strikes, blacksites, and the Guantanamo Bay military prison.
Topic:: Torture, Drones, Surveillance, Islamophobia, War on Terror, George W. Bush, and Guantanamo Bay
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

444. Factsheet: Stop Extremism

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Stop Extremism is a Europe-wide initiative demanding a stronger fight against extremism. It wants to introduce a joint EU-wide watch list of individuals and organizations that are labeled as extremists. A number of its proponents and supporters have a history of making discriminatory claims about Muslims and supporting anti-Muslim legislation in the name of defending liberal values.
Topic:: Violent Extremism, European Union, Discrimination, Islamophobia, and Muslims
Political Geography:: Europe

445. Factsheet: Global Hindu Heritage Foundation

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The Global Hindu Heritage Foundation (GHHF) is a Frisco, Texas-based Hindu non-profit organization. GHHF supports Hindu nationalist ideology and regularly publishes discriminatory, inflammatory, and intolerant content about Islam and Christianity. The group promotes anti-Muslim conspiracy theories, has raised funds to aid the demolition of Churches in India, and supports the Hindu nationalist mission of making India a Hindu-only nation.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Hindu Nationalism, Global Hindu Heritage Foundation (GHHF), and Anti-Christian
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

446. Factsheet: Sigrid Herrmann-Marschall

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Sigrid Herrmann-Marschall is a widely quoted German blogger, who is often invited as an expert on Islamism. She regularly argues that the government needs to take stricter measures to tackle Islamism in German society. She frequently lectures, trains, and publishes in a variety of newspapers and is referenced as an expert by many political parties including the far-right. More recently, she reportedly served as an expert on behalf of the far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, Far Right, Islamism, and Sigrid Herrmann-Marschall
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

447. Factsheet: Nina Scholz

Author:: Nina Scholz
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Nina Scholz is a German political commentator and writer on Islamism based in Vienna, Austria. Scholz is often presented as an expert on Islam and Islamism by the Austrian media and policy circles. She produces many texts with Heiko Heinisch, with whom she served as an expert for Operation Luxor, an unlawful raid targeting the homes of 60 prominent Austrian Muslims, carried out by the Austrian government in 2020.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, and Islamism
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Austria

448. Tunisian society finds itself stuck in silence and limbo post-July 25

Author:: Zied Boussen
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: On 25 July 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied announced a state of emergency for the country, along with drastic measures against what he considered to be a degradation of the State. Through an in-depth analysis of the current situation, this paper explores a so-far silent civil society and examines the political and social dynamics that will lead to a chasm between these actors and the public they are expected to mobilize.
Topic:: Civil Society, Social Movement, Political Activism, and Reform
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

449. Why Tunisia’s parliamentary electoral formula needs to be changed

Author:: Alexander Martin and John Carey
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: In light of the current political situation in Tunisia, this paper suggests that to avoid producing fragmented parliaments, the Tunisian electoral law should be amended and the Hare Quota-Largest Remainders (HQLR) formula should be replaced. A switch to either the D’Hondt or St.Lague divisors formulas would produce clearer winners and losers and foster accountability while preserving the proportional representation (PR) system.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Legislation, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

450. Marine pollution: A growing concern for the southern suburb of Tunis

Author:: Khouloud Ayari
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The National Sanitation Utility (ONAS) organized a public consultation two months after a human chain demonstration took place on 12 September along the beaches of the southern suburb of Tunis. This article examines the timeline of events that took place to warn against sea degradation from 2013 until September 2021. It also provides feedback on the November 2021 public consultation, and offers insight into the current environmental issues at hand in both local and national contexts.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Maritime, and Pollution
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

451. From inside and outside: Palestinian youth reshaping old electoral systems

Author:: Andrew Findell-Aghnatios and Tala Majzoub
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: In preparation for the first national elections in over 10 years, large numbers of Palestinian youth mobilized both inside and outside traditional political structures to voice their demands. This paper examines the modalities of their mobilization, their approaches to political reform, and the barriers that impede their meaningful participation in local politics. It concludes with recommendations on how to ensure greater integration of youth in the Palestinian political sphere.
Topic:: Social Movement, Elections, Democracy, Youth, Participation, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

452. Tunisia: Youth take a stand for/against the president’s decisions and watch in limbo

Author:: Alessandra Bajec
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: After playing a key role in the 2011 revolution, most young Tunisians have grown fed up with politicians in their country as a result of successive political, economic and social failures that marred the democratic transition. Since the mass protests on 25 July 2021 that preceded President Saied’s power grab, a popular youth movement has reawakened to demand radical change. This paper looks at some of the diverging positions held by young Tunisians on the president’s actions, their hopes and concerns in the current phase of political turbulence.
Topic:: Social Movement, Youth, Participation, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

453. PRC Foreign and Military Policy, 1977-81: Shades of Mao, the Imprint of Deng

Author:: Frederick C. Teiwes and Warren Sun
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:: This Working Paper is a draft chapter for a book on the poorly understood CCP elite politics of the early post-Mao period, tentatively entitled Hua Guofeng, Deng Xiaoping, and the Dismantling of Maoism. Conventional wisdom pictures the period up to the December 1978 Third Plenum as a struggle between Hua and Deng, reflecting neo-Maoist v. reformist tendencies, and won by Deng at the plenum. In fact, there was broad consensus between them, Hua was more proactive in key areas, and there is no evidence of anything approaching a power struggle. This paper, however, deals with an area where elements of accepted views of Deng hold up. In essence, Deng held both the foreign policy and particularly PLA portfolios, notably where they concerned the crucial relationships with the US, Soviet Union, Japan, and Vietnam. In external relations Deng was broadly regarded to have performed brilliantly, while Hua was thought a mere cypher. Overall, Hua was clearly secondary in external relations, but he took the bold step of initiating relations with revisionist Yugoslavia, made the most telling proposal in the high-level negotiations with the US, and deeply impressed dominant European leaders Margaret Thatcher and Helmut Schmidt. Deng’s foreign policy outlook was deeply influenced by Mao, he could push Mao’s “horizontal line” concept to counterproductive extremes, almost losing the Sino-Japanese Peace Treaty, and rather than brilliantly negotiating US normalization, the Chinese side was slow to grasp the outcome that was always there. Most significant, and revealing of the underlying dynamic of CCP politics, was the war against Vietnam. This was truly Deng’s war, opposed by not only Hua, but also by a broad array of senior civilian and PLA officials, including surviving marshals. This was essentially the first time since his return to work in 1977, in contrast to persuading his colleagues through intense effort, that Deng simply asserted his authority. Neither here or elsewhere, was argument decisive as it had generally been under Hua’s leadership to that point. What was decisive was Deng’s enormous prestige as the most outstanding of the surviving “old revolutionaries” who achieved the success of 1949. It was the same factor that allowed Deng’s quiet coup against Hua at the turn of 1979-80, with no significant resistance from Hua or anyone else, and with no explanation being made in any official forum until well after the fact.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Normalization
Political Geography:: China and Asia

454. Australia’s Response to the China Threat: The Case for Engagement

Author:: David S. G. Goodman
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:: The dominance of the China Threat discourse in Australia’s public affairs suggests poor prospects for any continued Australia-China relations, let alone positive interactions of mutual benefit. An exploration of alternative ways to approach Australia’s relationship with China may though prove not only more constructive but also better future-proofed. The first step is to recognize that while China certainly poses challenges to Australia the perception of threat is more relevant to the USA. The second is the recognition of differences and the development of ways to mediate those differences. And the third is to build on the complementarities for the benefit of both Australia and China, not just through economic but also through social interactions. As Europe discovered in the 1950s, the development of mutual understanding of other peoples, their cultures, and their social and economic systems is a precursor not simply to respect and the avoidance of unwarranted prejudice, but to cooperation for a wider public good.
Topic:: Security, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Australia

455. Digitalization of Special Economic Zones in China

Author:: Jie (Jeanne) Huang
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:: Special Economic Zones (SEZ) have become the forefront in China to test legal and technological reforms for digital trade. This chapter explores three cutting-edge case studies in China’s SEZs: the Beijing blockchain-based Single Window deposit box; newly established big data exchanges in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai SEZs; and pilot projects in financial, medical care and automobile industries to flow data across the border in the Shanghai SEZ. It scrutinizes China's experiments in the context of its applications to join CPTPP and DEPA. It argues that the development of Chinese domestic law for digital trade is shifting away from the traditional paradigm that uses international commitments to push domestic reform or make domestic law according to international law. The development of Chinese domestic law for digital trade relies much more on China’s domestic needs than what FTAs negotiations require. FTAs are increasingly becoming a tool for China to shape international law rather than a benchmark for legislating domestic Chinese law.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: China and Asia

456. El control social en Colombia: Un balance sobre las veedurías ciudadanas

Author:: Mariana Cepeda Villarreal and Luis Gilberto Murillo Urrutia
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: En Colombia existen diferentes modalidades institucionales para hacer control social dentro de las cuales se encuentran las veedurías ciudadanas, reglamentadas a través de la Ley 805 de 2003. Si bien las veedurías ciudadanas son un mecanismo de participación ampliamente conocido, y pese a haber sido reglamentado hace casi dos décadas, existe poca información sobre las dinámicas de su funcionamiento, impactos alcanzados, y factores que llevan a su éxito. Este documento analiza los límites y potencialidades de las veedurías ciudadanas en Colombia como modalidad o mecanismo de control social, a partir de la revisión del marco institucional que promueve su desarrollo y formalización en el país. Para ilustrar estas dinámicas, también se presenta la experiencia de la Veeduría Tumaco Despierta, iniciativa ciudadana de control social formalmente constituida, cuyo objeto es hacer seguimiento a la implementación del proyecto de agua y saneamiento básico bajo el crédito IBRD 86490 (PID 156239) del Banco Mundial.
Topic:: Accountability, Participation, Oversight, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

457. Accountability Keywords

Author:: Jonathan Fox
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: ‘What counts’ as accountability, and who decides? Accountability is often treated as a magic bullet, an all-purpose solution to a very wide range of problems—from corrupt politicians or the quality of public service provision to persistent injustice and impunity. The concept has become shorthand to refer to diverse efforts to address problems with the exercise of power. In practice, the accountability idea is malleable, ambiguous — and contested. This working paper unpacks diverse understandings of accountability ideas, using the ‘keywords’ approach. This tradition takes everyday big ideas whose meanings are often taken for granted and makes their subtexts explicit. The proposition here is that ambiguous or contested language can either constrain or enable possible strategies for promoting accountability. After all, different potential coalition partners may use the same term with different meanings—or may use different terms to communicate the same idea. Indeed, the concept’s fundamental ambiguity is a major reason why it can be difficult to communicate ideas about accountability across disciplines, cultures, and languages. The goal here is to inform efforts to find common ground between diverse potential constituencies for accountable governance. This analysis is informed by dialogue with advocates and reformers from many countries and sectors, many of whom share their ideas in blogposts on the Accountability Keywords website (see also #AccountabilityKeyword on social media). Both the working paper and blogposts reflect on accountability-related words and sayings that resonate with popular cultures, to get a better handle on what sticks. The format of the working paper is nonlinear, designed so that readers can go right to the keywords that spark their interest: The introduction maps the landscape of accountability keywords. Section 2 addresses what counts as accountability? Section 3 identifies big concepts that overlap with accountability but are not synonyms- such as good governance, democracy, responsiveness and responsibility. Section 4 shows the relevance of accountability adjectives by spelling out different ways in which the idea is understood. Section 5 unpacks widely used, emblematic keywords in the field. Section 6 considers more specialized keywords, focusing on examples that serve as shorthand for big ideas within specific communities of practice. Section 7 brings together a range of widely-used accountability sayings, from the ancient to the recently-invented—illustrating the enduring and diverse nature of accountability claims. Section 8 makes a series of propositions for discussion.
Topic:: Corruption, Accountability, and Keywords
Political Geography:: Global Focus

458. Does Station Name Matter?: Rent Seeking Behavior and Its Impact on Housing Prices

Author:: Hwiwon Seo and Minsik Choi
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of rent-seeking behavior for public goods on housing prices. To do so, we analyzed the case of renaming the Sinchoeon station to Jamsilsaenae station for the Seoul Metro Green line by applying the rent seeking theory and estimated the effect of the event on the housing prices of the affected neighborhood. The hedonic pricing model adopted by related studies does not produce unbiased estimates due to the endogeneity resulted from omitted variables including compounding macroeconomic variables. By developing a new dataset, we used the difference in differences regression method that produces more precise and unbiased estimates. Our results show that the housing prices affected by the renaming event increased by around 5% compared to those of non-affected neighborhood. Our analytical results can shed light on understanding related rent seeking behaviors for public goods provision.
Topic:: Economy, Macroeconomics, Housing, and Rent-seeking
Political Geography:: Asia and Korea

459. From Passive Owners to Planet Savers? Asset Managers, Carbon Majors and the Limits of Sustainable Finance

Author:: Joseph Baines and Sandy Brian Hager
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: This article examines the role of the Big Three asset management firms — BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street — in corporate environmental governance. Specifically, it charts the Big Three’s relationships with the public–owned Carbon Majors: a small group of fossil fuels, cement and mining companies responsible for the bulk of industrial greenhouse gas emissions. It finds that the Big Three much more often than not oppose rather than support shareholder resolutions aimed at improving environmental governance. Notably, this is even the case with the Big Three’s environmental, social and governance funds. A more fine–gained analysis shows that the combined voting decisions of the Big Three are more likely to lead to the failure than to the success of environmental resolutions and that, whether they succeed or fail, these resolutions tend to be narrow in scope and piecemeal in nature. Based on these findings, the article raises serious doubts about the Big Three’s credentials as environmental stewards.
Topic:: Environment, Finance, Fossil Fuels, Sustainability, and Corporate Governance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

460. The European Banks’ Role in the Financial Crisis of 2007-8: A Critical Assessment

Author:: Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2007, opinion has been divided over whether its root cause was credit arbitrage or safe asset demand. New research on the European banks' role in the crisis may finally help to resolve the issue. Far from being peripheral players in the crisis, European banks were deeply implicated in its causal origins as evidenced by their activities in the two US debt markets that were at the heart of the crisis: those for collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) and for asset backed commercial paper (ABCP). These activities would seem to lend weight to the credit arbitrage story, a conclusion that has been reached by several authors. However, it is a conclusion only made possible by ignoring the connection between the federal funds rate and the rate of ABCP demand from the institutional money market mutual funds (MMMFs) in the pre-crisis era. This paper argues that when this connection is closely examined, it turns out that the evidence surrounding the European banks' role in the financial crisis gives greater weight to the safe asset demand explanation of the crisis.
Topic:: Markets, Financial Crisis, Banks, Debt Securities, Assets, and Federal Funds Rate
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

461. Financial eschatology and the libidinal economy of leverage

Author:: Amin Samman and Stefano Sgambati
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: Apocalyptic thinking has a long religious and political tradition, but what place does it occupy within the temporal universe of contemporary capitalism? In this essay, we use the figure of the eschaton to draw out the loaded and ambiguous character of the future as it emerges through the condition of indebtedness. This entails a departure from political economy accounts of capitalist futurity, which stress the structural logic of financial speculation, in favour of an existential account that begins instead with the cosmology of money and debt. We argue that finance capital’s fixation on the future has produced a very specific form of apocalyptic imagination, characteristic of financial society and built on a libidinal economy of leverage. Rather than offering an ecstatic end to the global process of financialization, financial eschatologies bind the contemporary subject to debt and indebtedness to the very end: an endless apocalypse, premised on the ends of finance itself.
Topic:: Debt, Finance, Money, Eschatology, Futurity, Leverage, and Libidinal Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

462. The evolving contribution of R&D, advertising and capital expenditures for US-listed firms’ growth in sales, 1979-2018: A quantile regression analysis

Author:: Joel Rabinovich
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: This article presents new insights on the evolving contribution of different types of investments to the growth in sales of US nonfinancial listed firms during the 1979-2018 period. By means of quantile regressions it is observed an increasing contribution over time of intangible investment vis-à-vis a decline in capital expenditure both for high-growth and slow-growth firms. However, the impact of different types of intangible investment differs depending on the kind of firm. Whereas research and development (R&D) has a positive contribution for high-growth firms, only advertising has a positive effect for their slow-growth peers.
Topic:: History, Investment, Research and Development, Firm Growth, Quantile Regression, and Intangibles
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

463. Taliban Victory Serves as a Model for Palestinian Terror Groups

Author:: Marta Furlan
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: World powers and Israel should refuse to recognize the Taliban regime. This would give hope to Middle Eastern terrorist groups like Hamas that they could also gain recognition under the right conditions. Upon returning to government, the Taliban have been implementing a system of civilian administration based on their Islamist ideological background. The consequences for women and minorities have been horrifying. The same can be said about Afghanistan’s economy, which can no longer provide for its starving population. The Taliban began house searches around Kabul recently, drawing criticism from Western diplomats about rights abuses. The Taliban claim that the operations are to find “kidnappers, professional thieves and crime groups,” however, seven residents told Reuters that the searches were spreading fear and appeared indiscriminate. In terms of security, the Afghan-Pakistani border and the Afghan-Iranian border have traditionally been porous, with illicit goods, illegal immigrants, and terrorists linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State-Khorasan Province moving undetected from one country to another. Similarly, the borders shared by Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan with Afghanistan remain characterized by volatility, which exposes those countries to the risk of exportation of terrorism from Afghanistan. Though Afghanistan’s neighbors have engaged in efforts to increase border security by erecting fences, conducting anti-terrorism exercises in the border areas, and relocating troops to border areas, the potential security threats originating from Afghanistan remain a source of great concern for the region and beyond. Nevertheless, for Islamists across the border in Pakistan and elsewhere in the Muslim world, the Taliban’s victory – and ability to hold onto power in Afghanistan – serves as a model they seek to follow. This should cause worry for Israel due to the encouragement this provides to radical Islamist armed groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) that a return to the armed struggle is the only path to defeat Israel.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Taliban, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

464. Turkey’s struggling economy, regional isolation, behind latest charm offensive with Israel and other countries

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: A clear Turkish rationale for better relations with Israel is to weaken the strategic partnership between Jerusalem, Greece, and Cyprus and get access to Israel’s natural gas.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

465. The EU is Reluctantly Getting Tougher with Putin

Author:: Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Europeans surely remember what happens when you let an autocrat get away with grabbing territories hoping that the last bite will be the last one
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

466. Understanding the Russia-Iran-Israel Triangle

Author:: Daniel Rakov
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: As Tehran invests efforts to improve relations with Russia, Israel will have to maintain a dialogue with Moscow to safeguard its military and diplomatic freedom of action.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

467. The Ukraine Standoff as a Harbinger of Broader Shifts in the Global Order

Author:: Daniel Rakov
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Global powers might find it more challenging to reach a consensus on the Middle East than before. This makes it more critical for Israel to get separate understandings or develop new partnerships both globally and regionally.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

468. A US failure in Ukraine Crisis could lead to a conflagration in Middle East, Asia

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: China could learn that US determination is melting away, and its threats can be ignored. An attack on Taiwan could follow.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

469. Turkey-Armenia Normalization: A Quest for Realism

Author:: Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Ironically, the American recognition of the Armenian genocide removed an obstacle for Armenia and Turkey to move forward.
Topic:: Genocide, Human Rights, International Community, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Armenia

470. Houthi/Iranian attacks on UAE a response to losses on the Yemen battlefield

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Incensed by recent government gains in Yemen, the Iranians seek to intimidate the UAE into reversing course. At this juncture, it is therefore vital that both the US and Israel offer support for the UAE’s cause.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Governance, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Yemen, North America, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and UAE

471. Will US-Israel ties withstand possible strains due to the Iranian and Palestinian issues?

Author:: Eytan Gilboa
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Despite former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim to a 40-year friendship with President Joe Biden, the latter preferred the new government headed by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Leadership, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

472. US Policy Towards the Yemeni Conflict Must Change

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Re-designating the Houthi movement as a terrorist organization after the drone attack on the UAE is imperative. This, along with overt support for the UAE, would deliver a sharp message and likely have a beneficial effect on Iranian conduct in Vienna.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Humanitarian Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Yemen, North America, and United States of America

473. Could Biden construct a new world order through détente with Russia?

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Such a scenario would give the US a leg up against China’s totalitarianism and expansionist aims, and bridge the age-old schism with Russia
Topic:: Diplomacy, Hegemony, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

474. Japan’s Expanded Regional Security Role: The Challenge of China

Author:: Eyal Ben-Ari
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Japan’s steady build-up of its substantial military power is based on a realistic view of meeting current security challenges, especially those presented by China.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

475. PA head Mahmoud Abbas reveals his anti-peace stance in attack against Israeli Arab politician

Author:: Hillel Frisch
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It took Mansour Abbas, the head of the southern branch of the Islamic Movement’s United Arab List party(Ra’am), to show that Mahmoud Abbas has no ideological resolve or intentions to recognize the Jewish state and make genuine peace with it.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Governance, Leadership, and Ideology
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

476. The Challenges of Data Collection in Conflict-affected Areas: A Case Study in the Liptako-Gourma Region

Author:: Shourjya Deb and Virginie Baudais
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: Conducting research in the Sahel has become more challenging over the past 10 years, and the continuing deterioration of the security situation has restricted access to many areas. This SIPRI Insights paper provides an overview of the main challenges for researchers when conducting data collection in conflict-affected areas. The paper employs a case study of a humanitarian protection project that SIPRI has been working on in the Liptako-Gourma region. The project was designed in collaboration with the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) and three local research partners: the Centre for Democratic Governance (CGD) in Burkina Faso, Point Sud in Mali and the Laboratoire d’Études et de Recherche sur les Dynamiques Sociales et le Développement Local (LASDEL) in Niger. Using the case study, the paper identifies and outlines how the project addressed specific challenges. The paper also highlights key considerations for researchers to take into account when carrying out data collection and fieldwork in conflict zones. Evidence-based research can influence humanitarian and development initiatives and support shifts in policy and programming. The bottom-up research approach gives a voice to communities and alternative perspectives and advances evidence-based solutions that are locally driven, meaningful and sustainable for target populations.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Governance, Conflict, Peace, and Protection
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

477. Revisiting ‘Minimal Nuclear Deterrence’: Laying the Ground for Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament

Author:: Tytti Erästö
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: The prospects for nuclear arms control appear dim following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Instead of continued reliance on nuclear deterrence, the resulting new awareness of nuclear risks should inform bold nuclear disarmament measures in the long term. Drawing on previous debates on ‘minimal nuclear deterrence’, this paper argues that nuclear deterrence is possible at low numbers, and hence reliance on nuclear deterrence is not an obstacle to significant progress in nuclear disarmament. In particular, there is scope for reducing the vast Russian and United States nuclear arsenals, which risk planetary-scale destruction and stand in the way of multilateral nuclear disarmament. At the same time, recent military-technological evolution has raised the bar for minimal nuclear deterrence by questioning the survivability of nuclear forces. In addition to making recommendations on how to address such strategic challenges, the paper addresses some conceptual dilemmas traditionally associated with minimal nuclear deterrence.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Disarmament, Multilateralism, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

478. Chronic Crisis Financing? Fifty Years of Humanitarian Aid and Future Prospects

Author:: Gary Milante and Jannie Lilja
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: This study maps trends of humanitarian funding in the context of total aid at the country level between 1969 and 2019 and estimates how these trends will change in the future. Historical trends show that the composition of aid has changed significantly in the last two decades: the humanitarian share of total aid to countries has increased from approximately 5 per cent in the 1990s to 23 per cent in 2019. Humanitarian aid was originally intended to respond to short-term emergencies, however, most of today’s humanitarian financing goes to protracted situations. Today many countries receive high levels of humanitarian assistance for a decade or longer, referred to in this paper as ‘chronic’ crises. More than half of total global humanitarian assistance (59 per cent) in the decade 2010–19 went to chronic crises, typically synonymous with conflict-affected, fragile and refugee-hosting settings. These chronic crises have become more prevalent since 1995. Conservative forecasts suggest that 71 per cent of humanitarian assistance over the next decade will continue to go to countries receiving high levels of assistance today. The study concludes with open questions to policymakers regarding the use of the humanitarian financing instrument. In chronic crisis settings, the strategic balance between humanitarian, development and peacebuilding financing and the interplay between these financing streams deserves attention.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, Finance, Resilience, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

479. Gender Dimensions of Climate Insecurity

Author:: Elizabeth Smith
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: Gender is a traditionally under researched dimension in scholarship on climate and security. However, as recent research has noted, it is a variable that cannot only shape how different groups of individuals are affected by climate-related security risks. Gendered norms and power structures can also increase or mitigate the likelihood of climate-related security risks. This SIPRI Insights contributes to the growing body of research on gender, climate and security by analysing the gender dimensions of the four pathways of climate insecurity featured in past SIPRI studies: (a) livelihood deterioration, (b) migration and changing mobility, (c) tactical considerations of armed groups and (d) elite exploitation and resource mismanagement. It reviews literature to highlight how gender can influence resilience and risk for different groups of men and women within the pathways. Where relevant, it also discusses how gender may serve as an instigating factor for the respective pathways. The paper stresses the need to critically understand the different and interlinked experiences of diverse groups of men and women in the pathway contexts and to ensure equal leadership and participation of all affected groups in addressing climate-related security risks.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Risk, Peace, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

480. Climate Change and Violent Conflict in West Africa: Assessing the Evidence

Author:: Kheira Tarif
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: West Africa is widely cited as a hotspot of climate change and insecurity. This SIPRI Insights uses a systematic literature review of academic research to build a better understanding of the relationship between climate change and violent conflict in the region. Its findings are structured around four established ‘pathways’ of climate insecurity: (a) worsening livelihood conditions; (b) increasing migration and changing pastoral mobility patterns; (c) tactical considerations by armed groups; and (d) elite exploitation of local grievances. The literature review highlights a number of important variables in the relationship between climate change and violent conflict in West Africa: maladaptation to livelihood insecurity; migration away from climate-exposed areas; escalating farmer–herder conflicts; and sometimes weak, sometimes divisive, sometimes exploitative governance. Despite these findings, the literature review reveals current research and policy discussions on climate change and violent conflict in West Africa are informed by a very limited amount of academic research.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Development, Conflict, Violence, Risk, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

481. Multidomain Deterrence and Strategic Stability in China

Author:: Lora Saalman
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: Over the past few years, China has displayed a wide range of advances in military capabilities and infrastructure, including its test of a hypersonic glide vehicle coupled with a fractional orbital bombardment system and evidence of new intercontinental ballistic missile silos. While China and the United States remain at political odds, there are indications that China’s strategies in space, cyberspace and nuclear domains are increasingly converging with those of the USA, as well as Russia. A key question is whether this strategic convergence is a stabilizing or destabilizing phenomenon. To answer the question, this paper explores the current state of Chinese discussions on multidomain deterrence and strategic stability, with a focus on active defence and proactive defence. It then examines how these concepts are manifesting themselves in China’s postural and technological indicators, including pre-mating of nuclear warheads to delivery platforms, expanded nuclear arsenal size, possible shifts towards launch on warning, integration of dual-capable systems, and advances in machine learning and autonomy. It concludes with a discussion of what these trends mean for future strategic stability talks.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Nonproliferation, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: China and Asia

482. Pathways for Reducing Military Spending in Post-civil Conflict Settings

Author:: Alexandra Marksteiner and Diego Lopes da Silva
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: High military spending is a common and consequential legacy of civil conflict. Reducing military spending can yield valuable economic gains and further contribute to the recovery of post-civil conflict societies. However, little is known about the conditions that enable military spending reductions in a conflict’s aftermath. This SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security tackles this issue and provides a comparison of post-civil conflict conditions and military burden—military spending as a share of gross domestic product—outcomes. It builds on a comparative analysis of 19 post-civil conflict episodes between 1970 and 2020, as well as three detailed case studies, to identify common pathways to post-civil conflict military burden reductions. This research finds that reductions in military burden usually follow peace agreements that encompass trustworthy and legitimate verification mechanisms, the strengthening of institutional means to resolve grievances, and improvements in relations with neighbouring countries.
Topic:: Finance, Military Spending, Resilience, Post-Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

483. Industrial Feudalism and Wealth Inequalities

Author:: Hanna Szymborska and Jan Toporowski
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The possibility, first raised by Rudolf Hilferding, of stabilizing a capitalist economy through the operations of a ‘general cartel’, leaving only social and political ‘contradictions’ to disturb the functioning of the system, gave rise to a discussion among Marxists not only on whether such a stabilization was at all possible, but also on the nature and scope of those contradictions. This discussion had been anticipated in the 1890s in the work of the Polish Marxist Ludwik Krzywicki (1859 – 1941). He put forward the idea that, in a capitalist economy stabilized in this way, a state of ‘industrial feudalism’ would prevail, in which society would become stratified into social classes without the possibility of mobility between those classes. This analysis was extended in 1940s by Oskar Lange (1904-1965) as he attempted to make sense of the American New Deal and rediscovered in the 1950s by Tadeusz Kowalik (1926-2012). This paper explains the concept of industrial feudalism and argues that the main mechanism for such a stratification today is the unequal distribution of wealth, in the context of declining welfare provision.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Inequality, Feudalism, Industry, and Wealth
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

484. Why Diagnostic Expectations Cannot Replace REH

Author:: Roman Frydman and Halina Frydman
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Gennaioli and Shleifer (GS) have proposed diagnostic expectations (DE) as an empirically-based approach to specifying participants’ expectations, which, like REH, can be applied in every model. Beyond its supposedly general applicability, GS’s formalization of DE implies that participants systematically and predictably overreact to news. Here, we present a formal argument that Kahneman and Tversky’s compelling empirical findings, and those of other behavioral economists, do not provide a basis for a general approach to specifying participants’ “predictable errors.” We also show that the overreaction of participants’ expectations is not a regularity, but rather an artifact of GS’s particular specification of DE.
Topic:: Economics, Models, and Predictability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

485. Consumption of New and Emerging Tobacco and Nicotine Products in Zambia: Implications for Policy

Author:: Shimukunki Manchishi, Edna Kabala, and Mulenga Chonzi Mulenga
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: The global economy has in recent years observed a rapid increase in the consumption of New and Emerging Tobacco and Nicotine Products (NETNPs). Consumers of the NETNPs in Zambia and elsewhere justify consumption of these products on grounds that they are less harmful and expose them to fewer health risks compared to traditional tobacco smoke. However, studies have shown that these NETNPs do not entirely filter out harmful chemicals from tobacco as presumed by many people, and in some cases may even expose smokers to more smoke over longer periods of time as is the case of water pipe (shisha). This study investigated the consumption and taxation of NETNPs in Zambia to generate knowledge and come up with evidence-based policy recommendations aimed at informing appropriate stakeholders on the consumption and taxation of NETNPs. The study employed a mixed methodology encompassing a desk review, a survey of 400 respondents and key informant interviews. In terms of the consumption of NETNPs, the study revealed that a majority of those surveyed consume water pipe, which ranked highest among the NETNPs consumed in Zambia. Other NETNPs commonly consumed include bidis, e-cigarettes and dry snuff (nsunko). The consumption of these products varied according to the economic status of the consumers, with products such as snus and e-cigarettes being much more preferred and consumed by those in employment because they can afford more costly products. Meanwhile, products such as water pipe and bidis were the products of choice among those not employed and this could also be attributed to the relatively lower cost of the products. Regarding the socio-demographic characteristics of the surveyed sample, the study established that most of the consumers of NETNPs were young, unmarried males. A notable finding in the study was that those who had attained tertiary level of education were the biggest consumers of NETNPs. With regards to taxation of NETNPs, the study has found that there is potential to increase taxes substantially based on consumers’ willingness to pay which would require very high tax levels to deter consumption. This would require the government to considerably increase excise taxes on these products which would ultimately increase their price and hence curtail their consumption. The study has established that the taxation of all tobacco products in Zambia is the sole responsibility of the ZRA which draws its mandate from various provisions of the Zambian law. Broadly there are eight categories used to classify tobacco and nicotine products based on the HS codes. This broad classification forms the basis for taxation of tobacco and nicotine products in Zambia. The study has established that there are four main taxes applied on tobacco products in Zambia, these include: a 25% customs duty levied on the value of the product imported; a VAT of 16% on the value of the product; a 5% surtax; and excise duty of 145% of the value for duty purposes (VDP) or K355 per kg for all tobacco products.
Topic:: Health, Digital Economy, Business, Tax Systems, Public Policy, Tobacco, Public Health, and Gender
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

486. Why Diagnostic Expectations Cannot Replace REH

Author:: Roman Frydman and Halina Frydman
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Gennaioli and Shleifer (GS) have proposed diagnostic expectations (DE) as an empirically-based approach to specifying participants’ expectations, which, like REH, can be applied in every model. Beyond its supposedly general applicability, GS’s formalization of DE implies that participants systematically and predictably overreact to news. Here, we present a formal argument that Kahneman and Tversky’s compelling empirical findings, and those of other behavioral economists, do not provide a basis for a general approach to specifying participants’ “predictable errors.” We also show that the overreaction of participants’ expectations is not a regularity, but rather an artifact of GS’s particular specification of DE.
Topic:: Economics, Academia, and Models
Political Geography:: Global Focus

487. Pricing for Medicine Innovation: A Regulatory Approach to Support Drug Development and Patient Access

Author:: Rosie Collington and William Lazonick
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The United States represents the world’s largest market for pharmaceutical drugs. It is also the only advanced economy in the world that does not regulate drug prices. There is no upper threshold for the prices of medicines in the United States. List prices are instead set by manufacturers in negotiation with supply-chain intermediaries, though some federal programs have degrees of discretion in price determinations. In practice, this deregulated system means that drug prices in the United States are generally far higher than in other advanced economies, adversely affecting patient accessibility and system affordability. In this paper, we draw on the “theory of innovative enterprise” to develop a framework that provides both a critique of the existing pricing system in the United States and a foundation for developing a new model of pricing regulation to support safety and effectiveness through drug development as well as accessibility and affordability in the distribution of approved medicines to patients. We introduce a regulatory approach we term “Pricing for Medicine Innovation” (PMI), which departs dramatically from the market-equilibrium assumptions of conventional (neoclassical) economics. The PMI approach recognizes the centrality of collective investments by government agencies and business firms in the productive capabilities that underpin the drug development process. PMI specifies the conditions under which, at the firm level, drug pricing can support both sustained investment in these capabilities and improved patient access. PMI can advance both of these objectives simultaneously by regulating not just the level of corporate profit but also its allocation to reinvestment in the drug development process. PMI suggests that although price caps are likely to improve drug affordability, there remain two potential issues with this pricing approach. Firstly, in an innovation system where a company’s sales revenue is the source of its finance for further drug development, price caps may deprive a firm of the means to invest in innovation. Secondly, even with adequate profits available for investment in innovation, a firm that is run to maximize shareholder value will tend to use those profits to fund distributions to shareholders rather than for investment in drug innovation. We argue that, if implemented properly, PMI could both improve the affordability of medicines and enhance the innovative performance of pharmaceutical companies.
Topic:: Health Care Policy, Drugs, Innovation, Medicine, and Price
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

488. Equality Denied: Tech and African Americans

Author:: William Lazonick, Philip Moss, and Joshua Weitz
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Thus far in reporting the findings of our project “Fifty Years After: Black Employment in the United States Under the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission,” our analysis of what has happened to African American employment over the past half century has documented the importance of manufacturing employment to the upward socioeconomic mobility of Blacks in the 1960s and 1970s and the devastating impact of rationalization—the permanent elimination of blue-collar employment—on their socioeconomic mobility in the 1980s and beyond. The upward mobility of Blacks in the earlier decades was based on the Old Economy business model (OEBM) with its characteristic “career-with-one-company” (CWOC) employment relations. At its launching in 1965, the policy approach of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission assumed the existence of CWOC, providing corporate employees, Blacks included, with a potential path for upward socioeconomic mobility over the course of their working lives by gaining access to productive opportunities and higher pay through stable employment within companies. It was through these internal employment structures that Blacks could potentially overcome barriers to the long legacy of job and pay discrimination
Topic:: Labor Issues, Employment, Discrimination, Models, and Equality of Opportunity
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

489. Measuring the Impact of Campaign Finance on Congressional Voting: A Machine Learning Approach

Author:: Matthias Lalisse
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: How much does money drive legislative outcomes in the United States? In this article, we use aggregated campaign finance data as well as a Transformer based text embedding model to predict roll call votes for legislation in the US Congress with more than 90% accuracy. In a series of model comparisons in which the input feature sets are varied, we investigate the extent to which campaign finance is predictive of voting behavior in comparison with variables like partisan affiliation. We find that the financial interests backing a legislator’s campaigns are independently predictive in both chambers of Congress, but also uncover a sizable asymmetry between the Senate and the House of Representatives. These findings are cross-referenced with a Representational Similarity Analysis (RSA) linking legislators’ financial and voting records, in which we show that “legislators who vote together get paid together”, again discovering an asymmetry between the House and the Senate in the additional predictive power of campaign finance once party is accounted for. We suggest an explanation of these facts in terms of Thomas Ferguson’s Investment Theory of Party Competition: due to a number of structural differences between the House and Senate, but chiefly the lower amortized cost of obtaining individuated influence with Senators, political investors prefer operating on the House using the party as a proxy.
Topic:: Corruption, Elections, Legislation, and Money
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

490. After the Allocation: What Role for the Special Drawing Rights System?

Author:: Tobias Pforr, Fabian Pape, and Steffen Murau
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: In August 2021, the IMF made a new SDR allocation to help ease pandemic-induced financial strains in the Global South. This paper assesses the potential of the SDR system to address debt- related problems in global finance. We analyze the SDR system as a web of interlocking balance sheets whose members can use SDR holdings—the system’s tradable assets—for conversion into usable currency as a perpetual low-interest loan or to make payments to each other. Using original IMF data, we study how the system has been practically used since 1990. Though widely perceived as a solution in search of a problem in the post-Bretton Woods era, we find that the SDR system provides three mechanisms through which IMF members borrow and lend usable currency to each other, with different strings attached: first, transactions by agreement; second, the IMF’s core lending facilities for which the SDR system offers additional resources; and third, IMF-sponsored Trusts which seek to harness the SDR system for development purposes and are the basis for the current idea of ‘voluntary channeling’. Overall, given the SDR system’s idiosyncratic accounting rules, the new allocation can improve the liquidity position of a country and offer some limited avenues for sovereign debt restructuring but comes with new interest and exchange rate risks. Voluntary channeling cannot happen without a wealth transfer, neither the SDR allocation nor the use of Trusts can overcome this problem. Still, Trusts can be a useful instrument to help with debt forgiveness and to ensure that borrowed funds are used for their intended purpose.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:: Global Focus

491. An Economic Defense of Multiple Antitrust Goals: Reversing Income Inequality and Promoting Political Democracy

Author:: Mark Glick
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Two recent papers by prominent antitrust scholars argue that a revived antitrust movement can help reverse the dramatic rise in economic inequality and the erosion of political democracy in the United States. Both papers rely on the legislative history of the key antitrust statutes to support their case. Not surprisingly, their recommendations have been met with alarm in some quarters and with skepticism in others. Such proposals by antitrust reformers are often contrasted with the Consumer Welfare Standard that pervades antitrust policy today. The Consumer Welfare Standard suffers from several defects: (1) It employs a narrow, unworkable measure of welfare; (2) It excludes important sources of welfare based on the assumption that antitrust seeks only to maximize wealth; (3) It assumes a constant and equal individual marginal utility of money; and (4) It is often combined with extraneous ideological goals. Even with these defects, however, if applied consistent with its theoretical underpinnings, the consideration of the transfer of labor rents resulting from a merger or dominant firm conduct is supported by the Consumer Welfare Standard. Moreover, even when only consumers (and not producers) are deemed relevant, the welfare of labor still should consistently be considered part of consumer welfare. In contrast, fostering political democracy—a prominent traditional antitrust goal that was jettisoned by the Chicago School—falls outside the Consumer Welfare Standard in any of its constructs. To undergird such important broader goals requires that the Consumer Welfare Standard be replaced with the General Welfare Standard. The General Welfare Standard consists of modern welfare economics modified to accommodate objective analyses of human welfare and purged of inconsistencies.
Topic:: Economics, Democracy, Income Inequality, and Antitrust Law
Political Geography:: Global Focus

492. Investing in Innovation: A Policy Framework for Attaining Sustainable Prosperity in the United States

Author:: William Lazonick
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: “Sustainable prosperity” denotes an economy that generates stable and equitable growth for a large and growing middle class. From the 1940s into the 1970s, the United States appeared to be on a trajectory of sustainable prosperity, especially for white-male members of the U.S. labor force. Since the 1980s, however, an increasing proportion of the U.S labor force has experienced unstable employment and inequitable income, while growing numbers of the business firms upon which they rely for employment have generated anemic productivity growth.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Economic Inequality, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

493. Government Deficits and Interest Rates: A Keynesian View

Author:: Brett Palatiello and Philip Pilkington
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: We test the neoclassical loanable funds model which postulates that, ceteris paribus, government borrowing increases the long-term rate of interest. The empirical literature exploring such a connection remains largely mixed. We clarify the conflicting results by deploying an ARDL model to decompose the relationship in the United States into long and short-run effects across multiple measures of the government deficit and long-term interest rate. We find a tendency for changes in the deficit to increase long-term interest rates in the short run but the effect is reversed in the long run. We argue that these results are consistent with John Maynard Keynes’ view of the long-term rate as being heavily influenced by monetary policy, central bank credibility and market convention.
Topic:: Economics, Governance, Economic Theory, Keynes, and Deficit
Political Geography:: Global Focus

494. Setting the Record Straight on the Libertarian South African Economist W. H. Hutt and James M. Buchanan

Author:: William Darity Jr., M'Balou Camara, and Nancy MacLean
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: In their stormy response to Nancy MacLean’s book Democracy in Chains, some academics on the libertarian right have conducted a concerted defense of Nobel Laureate James Buchanan’s credentials as an anti-racist, or at least a non-racist. An odd component of their argument is a claim of innocence by association: the peripatetic South African economist and Mont Pelerin Society founding member William Harold Hutt was against apartheid; Buchanan was a friend and supporter of Hutt; therefore, Buchanan could not have been abetting segregationists with his support for public funding of segregationist private schools. At the core of this chain of argument is the inference that Hutt’s opposition to apartheid proves that Hutt himself was committed to racial equality. However, just as there were white supremacists who opposed slavery in the United States, we demonstrate Hutt was a white supremacist who opposed apartheid in South Africa. We document how Hutt embraced notions of black inferiority, even in The Economics of the Colour Bar, his most ferocious attack on apartheid. Whether or not innocence by association is a sound defense of anyone’s ideology or conduct, Hutt, himself, was not innocent of white supremacy.
Topic:: Economics, Discrimination, Racism, and Libertarianism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

495. Inflation in the Time of Corona and War

Author:: Servaas Storm
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Reliance on established macroeconomic thinking is not of much use in trying to understand what to do in response to the constellation of forces driving up inflation in these times of COVID-19 and war. This paper attempts to reduce the heat and turn up the light in the debate on the return of high inflation and looming stagflation—by providing evidence-based answers to the main (policy) questions concerning the return of high inflation: is the increased inflation due to (global) supply and/or demand factors? Is the inflation in the US exceptional or are other OECD and emerging economies experiencing similar inflationary pressures? Is the increase in inflation permanent or transitory? Can the Fed safely bring down inflation? Is fiscal policy the underlying cause of inflation? Are there alternative, less socially costly, ways to bring inflation down? And what will happen to inflation in the longer run, when the US and other economies will face the impacts of global warming?
Topic:: Economics, War, Inflation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

496. Pari Passu Lost and Found: The Origins of Sovereign Bankruptcy 1798-1873

Author:: Marc Flandreau
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Verdicts returned by modern courts of justice in the context of sovereign debt lawsuits have upheld a ratable (proportional) interpretation of so-called “pari passu” clauses in debt contracts which, literally, promise creditors they will be dealt with equitably. Such verdicts have given individual creditors the right to interfere with payments to others, in situation where the sovereign had failed to make proportional payments. Contract originalists argue that this interpretation of pari passu clauses has no historical foundation. Historically, they claim, pari passu clauses never granted individual creditors a unilateral right to block payments to other bondholders assenting to a government debt restructuring proposal. This article shows this claim is incorrect. Drawing on novel archival research, it argues that pari passu clauses find one potent historical origin in the operation of a now forgotten sovereign bankruptcy tribunal, the London stock exchange. Under the law of the stock exchange, departure from ratable payments did create a unilateral right for individual creditors to interfere with sovereign debt discharges. In fact, ratable distributions provided the touchstone for the stock exchange sanctioned sovereign debt discharge system. What is more, sophisticated contract drafters availed themselves of the logic. The result was a weaponization of pari passu clauses, and their inscription into sovereign debt covenants in the 19th century. The article concludes that the modern debate on the role of clauses in sovereign debt contracts cannot be held without thorough reconsideration of the history of sovereign bankruptcy.
Topic:: Finance, Banking, Stock Markets, and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and England

497. Working Paper Permanent Scars: The Effects of Wages on Productivity

Author:: Claudia Fontanari and Antonella Palumbo
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper explores how stagnating real wages may have contributed to the slowdown of US productivity. Through shift-share analysis, we find that after a sharp change in distribution against wages, some historically high-productivity sectors (like manufacturing) switched towards slower productivity growth. This supports our hypothesis that the anemic growth of productivity may be partly due to the trend toward massive use of cheap labor. Our estimation of Sylos Labini’s productivity equation confirms the existence of two direct effects of wages, one acting through the incentive to mechanization and the other through the incentive to reorganize labor use. We also show that labor ‘weakness’ may exert a further negative effect on labor productivity. On the whole, we find that a persistent regime of low wages may determine very negative long-term consequences on the economy.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Economic Theory, and Wages
Political Geography:: Global Focus

498. Monetary Policy for the Climate? A Money View Perspective on Green Central Banking

Author:: Jakob Vestergaard
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Central banks can potentially influence the investment decisions of private financial institutions, which in turn will create incentives towards green technology adoption and development of lower emission business models. This paper examines how monetary policies can be deployed to promote a greening of finance. To guide the efforts, the paper mobilizes the Money View literature. This enables a comparative assessment of different monetary policy options. The main finding is that a promising way forward for green monetary policy is to adopt a strategy of expanding collateral eligibility through positive screening and widening haircut spreads to change relative incentives in favor of green over brown assets.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Monetary Policy, Banking, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

499. The Role of Public REITs in Financialization and Industry Restructuring

Author:: Rosemary Batt, Eileen Appelbaum, and Tamar Katz
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are important but little studied financial actors that control over $3.5 trillion in gross assets and over 500,000 properties in the U.S. Yet they have been largely ignored because tax rules define them as ‘passive investors.’ The evidence in this report shows that they are actually financial actors that aggressively buy up property assets and manage them to extract wealth at taxpayers’ expense. This study identifies the powerful impact that REITs, as owners of the real estate that houses productive enterprises, have had on operating companies and on the US economy more generally. It draws on case study evidence from markets where REITs have a major presence – nursing homes, hospitals, and hotels. The tax treatment of REITs has facilitated a growing and worrying influence on health care markets in particular at taxpayer expense.
Topic:: Health Care Policy, Finance, Tax Systems, and Banking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

500. China’s Development Path: Government, Business, and Globalization in an Innovating Economy

Author:: Yin Yi and William Lazonick
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: We employ the “social conditions of innovative enterprise” framework to analyze the key determinants of China’s development path from the economic reforms of 1978 to the present. First, we focus on how government investments in human capabilities and physical infrastructure provided foundational support for the emergence of Chinese enterprises capable of technological learning. Second, we delve into the main modes by which Chinese firms engaged in technological learning from abroad—joint ventures with foreign multinationals, global value chains, and experienced high-tech returnees—that have contributed to industrial development in China. Third, we provide evidence on achievements in indigenous innovation—by which we mean improvements in national productive capabilities that build on learning from abroad and enable the innovating firms to engage in global competition—in the computer, automobile, communication-technology, and semiconductor-fabrication industries. Finally, we sketch out the implications of our approach for current debates on the role of innovation in China’s development path as it continues to unfold.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Globalization, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Innovation
Political Geography:: China and Asia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS