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1472. Turkey and the West: A Hostile Dance
- Author:
- Nick Danforth
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Tensions between Turkey and the West have steadily worsened over the past five years, but analysts are still no closer to predicting what this means for the future. Many assume that longstanding strategic and economic ties will ultimately force both sides to muddle through and preserve their relationship, while others anticipate that pressure will build to the point where a decisive break becomes inevitable. This paper examines a number of different scenarios that have been put forward for Turkey’s relations with the US and EU, then tries to navigate between the most plausible among them to predict how this hostile dance might progress.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, United States of America, and Mediterranean
1473. Greek Diaspora in an uncertain world
- Author:
- Othon Anastasakis and Antonis Kamaras
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Greece’s fiscal crisis has energized its relationship with its diaspora in the last several years, after decades of decline, as well as reshaping the diaspora itself due to the massive crisis-driven migration. Research institutes as well as individual scholars have addressed key aspects of the diaspora and homeland relationship prior to and during the crisis. South East European Studies at Oxford (SEESOX) established in 2015 the Greek Diaspora Project, a dedicated research unit which has applied the well-established diaspora and development literature to the Greek case, in the crisis and post-crisis years. The opportunities for synergistic research between University centers and think tanks located in Greece and abroad, in satisfactorily addressing this crisis-driven transformation of the diaspora & homeland relationship, are compelling. SEESOX and ELIAMEP have thus decided to collaborate so they can catalyse such synergies both between themselves and with universities in Greece and abroad. SEESOX’s and ELIAMEP’s joint endeavor will be resolutely comparative as well as cross-disciplinary, reflecting both the requirements of a highly advanced diaspora studies prospectus as well as the respective strengths of the two partners.
- Topic:
- Migration, Diaspora, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
1474. Revisiting and going beyond the EU-Turkey migration agreement of 2016: an opportunity for Greece to overcome being just “Europe’s aspis”
- Author:
- Kemal Kirisçi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- In contrast to early last year, marked by a “border crisis” that erupted after the Turkish President finally put into action his long-standing threat to “open the border” for Syrian refugees, the year 2021 had a more promising start. The intense tensions in the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean that followed the “border crisis” appear to be subsiding. The European Council statement of March 25 offers a possible framework for dialogue and diplomacy to take over from what was an annus horribilis in Greek-Turkish and EU-Turkish relations. Within this framework, room is also made for revisiting the EU-Turkey statement adopted in March 2016 to manage the aftermath of the European migration crisis that had seen a mass displacement of refugees and migrants primarily from Turkey to Greece and on to Europe. The statement has had many opponents and its implementation has faced multiple grievances and recriminations from both sides. Addressing and overcoming these challenges will call for extensive diplomatic effort, good will and take considerable time. In the interim, however, the emerging positive climate offers the possibility to explore expanding cooperation in a relatively successful but inadequately appreciated part of the EU-Turkey statement known as the Facility for Refugees in Turkey (FRIT). FRIT has been instrumental in supporting Syrian and other refugees in Turkey. It has been an important manifestation of burden-sharing with Turkey and has benefitted refugees in concrete terms. Advancing cooperation in this area would also help contribute to mutual confidence building and have a positive spill over into other more complicated issue areas in the migration domain and broader bilateral relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean
1475. Turkey: A Problem Partner?
- Author:
- ELIAMEP
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- It was around the mid-2000s when Turkey—if only for a short period of time—promulgated the idea of “zero problems with neighbours”. At the time, Turkey was seeking positive reforms in all aspects of public life and a cooperative future with neighbouring countries based on mutual understanding and converging interests. Furthermore, Turkey imagined itself as a bridge between, not as a wall separating and isolating, different regions. Unfortunately, those days are long gone. For almost a decade now, Turkey has been reactionary in its treatment of its own citizens and solipsistic with regard to its neighbours. Democratic backsliding and human rights abuses inside Turkey have become the norm, while militarisation and unilateralism increasingly characterise its foreign policy choices. Its government actions have begun to resemble those of a rogue state. This report seeks neither to explain the intricacies of Erdoğan’s problematic behaviour towards its own people and the rest of the world, nor to denigrate Turkey’s standing. Rather, it aims to raise the alarm about the slippery slope Turkey finds itself on, hopefully well before his governance causes irreparable damage to the region. The report starts by presenting general aspects of Turkey’s relationship with international stakeholders, such as the EU and the US. It proceeds by mapping out internal developments that exemplify strong tendencies of democratic backsliding and human rights abuses. The third part focuses on regional aspects of Turkey’s foreign policy behaviour, starting with the most severe cases that epitomize the militarisation of its foreign policy and violations of international law. It concludes with various cases of political differences between Turkey and states on its periphery, which, combined with the other more severe cases described, demonstrate how Turkey’s foreign policy expectations of ‘zero problems with neighbours’ have turned into a ‘zero neighbours’ reality.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
1476. Ahead of the five-party meeting: Convergences and bridgeable differences towards the reunification of Cyprus
- Author:
- George Kalpadakis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The prospect of achieving a bizonal, bicommunal federal solution to the Cyprus problem was dealt a blow in the summer of 2017 when the unification talks between the two sides were suspended. The deterioration of the climate since then and the concomitant danger of abandoning the UN framework for a solution amid Turkey’s and the T/C side’s apparent insistence on a two-state solution, underscores the necessity to sketch out the convergences that have reportedly been achieved as well as the most significant issues on which the divergences appear to be bridgeable. Ahead of the upcoming informal five-party meeting on the Cyprus issue and the challenge of “rebooting” Crans Montana, this paper briefly outlines these issues based on a recently released UN document, indicating that they form an integral part of the elusive signposts towards a final settlement. Moreover, it refers to a number of ongoing and new civil society initiatives in support of peace and reunification.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Negotiation, Peace, Reconciliation, and Reunification
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
1477. EU-Turkey Economic Relations and the Customs Union: a rules-based approach
- Author:
- Dimitris Tsarouhas
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Trade and economic relations remain the cornerstone of EU-Turkey relations. The Customs Union (CU) is the sole institutionalized instrument that remains important for both sides. Launching negotiations on how to update its content offers a set of fresh opportunities for the EU to reintroduce political as well as economic conditionality in its relations with Turkey. A step-by-step approach based on monitoring and benchmarking can enhance EU leverage vis á vis Turkey and allow the EU to escape a cycle of ineffective policy interventions on Turkey’s political trajectory. The CU can also become a vehicle to assist the democratic segments of Turkey’s civil society as well as those EU member states who have found themselves searching for an alternative to Turkey’s failed Europeanization.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Migration, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey
1478. A fresh start for Greece-Libya relations: A view from Nicosia
- Author:
- Yiannis Ioannou
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Mitsotakis’ official visit to Libya and the reopening of the Greek embassy in Tripoli is a positive step towards normalization. The Libyan-Turkish memorandum on the delimitation of maritime zones will be difficult to revoke- but it must not be the only focal point of Greek-Libyan relations. The period leading to the December 24 elections in Libya is critical, and the situation in the country will remain volatile due to both internal and external challenges. Turkey retains a significant footprint in Libya with several political, military and economic implications. Libya is an important country for the European Union and remains a source of challenges for European security (irregular migration, terrorism). Greece can play an active mediating role in Libya, at a European, bilateral and regional level.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Migration, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Greece and Libya
1479. Humanitarian VISAs
- Author:
- Eleni Kritikopoulou
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The X and X decision of the European Court of Justice highlighted the gap in current EU law regarding human rights protections in entry procedures. Currently over 90% of those granted refugee status in the EU arrive through irregular means. There is an increasing need for a new form of visa, specifically to accommodate humanitarian matters, which are not currently covered by the pre-existing Schengen rules. For limited numbers, consulates of EU states would be empowered to issue Visas for asylum seekers in order to legally cross EU borders to launch an asylum application. Research shows that the economic costs for the implementation of this humanitarian visa system would be minimal and that the political and humanitarian benefits would be significant.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Migration, European Union, and Asylum
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1480. “The Times They Are A-Changin'”? – Three Turkish Opposition Parties
- Author:
- Evangelos Areteos
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- While the main focus of international media and academics is oriented towards Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP), together with their nationalist allies, the Turkish opposition is giving growing signs of deep changes and transformations. Obliged to operate within a “competitive authoritarian” environment, the three biggest parties of the opposition, namely the Republican People’s Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi-CHP), the Good Party (İYİ Parti) and the Democracy and Progress Party (Demokrasi ve Atılım Partisi-DEVA) are in a multidimensional process of transformation and adaptation to the emerging needs and expectations of a growing part of the Turkish society. By exploring new ways to circumvent polarization that brings them closer to the vibrant society, and by searching for new interpretations of nationalism that open new perspectives of inclusiveness, these three opposition parties have the potential to emerge not only as significant political alternatives but also as a reflection of societal change.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Political Parties, AKP, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean