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281. Technology will save the climate! Attitudes towards Norway’s climate policy in four social groups

Author:
Åsta Dyrnes Nordø
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The risk of opposition from the population increasingly plays a role in choosing the climate policy measures to achieve the objective to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In Norway, there is a long-standing cross-party consensus that the development of new technologies will be crucial for solving climate challenges. Comparing public opinion surveys, Norwegians are significantly more convinced that new technology will solve problems induced by climate change, compared people in other European countries. A concrete example of such a technology is carbon capture and storage (CCS). Despite discussions about the costs of establishing the technology, there is a cross-party consensus in Norway that CCS is a good and suitable measure for reaching climate policy goals. In this article, we review the historical background that has led to this broad support in Nor-way. Furthermore, we look at how this has been expressed in the political parties’ attitudes towards CCS. There has been a long standing consensus among all major parties that CCS should be developed and deployed. We argue that this lay the foundation for the societal support for CCS. We analyze data from the Norwegian Coordinated Online panels for research on DEMocracy and governance (KODEM) to examine the attitudes toward CCS among citizens and three functional elites, namely elected representatives, bureaucrats, and journalists. We find that CCS receives strong support in all four groups, but that citizens and elected representative are more skeptical compared to bureaucrats and journalists. However, when looking at the factors that influence the perception of CCS, the pattern is the same for all four groups. The more technology optimistic a person is, the more positively they tend to perceive CCS as a method to fight climate change. We also find that those who think the political efforts to reduce greenhouse gases are too great are less positive about CCS com-pared to those who think the efforts are appropriate or too small. Overall, the analysis indicates that all four societal groups are technology optimistic and characterized by the same attitudes toward climate change. We discuss the role of technology optimism in Norway’s climate policy and the reasons for the high degree of political consensus across groups with different societal functions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Science and Technology, Carbon Emissions, Elites, and Attitudes
Political Geography:
Europe and Norway

282. The Ukraine Support Tracker: Which countries help Ukraine and how?

Author:
Christoph Trebesch, Ariana Antezza, Katelyn Bushnell, Andre Frank, and Pascal Frank
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper presents the Ukraine Support Tracker, which lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. Since the third update we track support by 41 countries, specifically the EU member states, other members of the G7, as well as Australia, South Korea, Turkey, Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, China, Taiwan, India and Iceland. The database is intended to support a facts-based discussion about support by other countries to Ukraine. Private donations and aid through non-governmental organizations are not included due to a lack of systematic data. To value in-kind support like military equipment or weapons, we rely on government statements as well as own calculations using market prices. We find significant differences in the scale of support across countries, both in absolute terms and as percent of donor country GDP.
Topic:
Economics, War, Foreign Aid, Military Aid, Geoeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, and United States of America

283. Patterns of Global and Regional Value Chain Participation in the EAC

Author:
Sebastian Krantz
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Using global Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) data from 2005-2015, this paper empirically investigates the extent and patterns by which East African Community (EAC) countries have integrated into Global Value Chains (GVCs) and Regional Value Chains (RVCs). Results imply that the foreign content of exports (I2E) and the share of exports being re-exported (E2R) are stably between 10% and 20% in most EAC countries. Trade in intermediates with the rest of the world remains 12-14 times greater in value-added (VA) terms than the trade in intermediates inside the EAC. During 2005-2015, Kenya expanded its role as a regional supplier of manufactured inputs (higher E2R with EAC partners), and Uganda slightly increased its agricultural input to the Kenyan and Rwandan food processing sectors. Overall, however, a downstream shift is evident, by which more VA (both domestic and foreign) is used for the production of final goods while maintaining high levels of exports in primary agriculture and mining. This shift goes alongside a loss of comparative advantage in manufacturing in all EAC countries apart from Kenya. Econometric analysis suggests that higher I2E and E2R shares increase GDP with an average elasticity of ≥ 0.25 over 2 years. Estimates for manufacturing sectors were slightly higher at elasticities ≥ 0.3 in response to E2R shifts. These results imply that policy measures to increase manufacturing competitiveness and promote more horizontal RVCs would benefit EAC economic growth in the medium run.
Topic:
Globalization, Regional Integration, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:
Africa

284. Exposure to War and Its Labor Market Consequences over the Life Cycle

Author:
Sebastian T. Braun and Jan Stuhler
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
With 70 million dead, World War II remains the most devastating conflict in history. Of the survivors, millions were displaced, returned maimed from the battlefield, or spent years in captivity. We examine the impact of such wartime experiences on labor market careers and show that they often become apparent only at certain life stages. While war injuries reduced employment in old age, former prisoners of war postponed their retirement. Many displaced workers, particularly women, never returned to employment. These responses are in line with standard life‐cycle theory and thus likely extend to other conflicts.
Topic:
History, Displacement, World War II, Welfare, Prisoners of War, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

285. Africa’s Businesswomen – Underfunded or Underperforming?

Author:
Charles Ackah, Holger Görg, Aoife Hanley, and Cecília Hornok
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
While the recent success of Africa’s ‘Lionesses’ – successful female entrepreneurs - is internationally celebrated, less is known about how liquidity can fuel the success of the ‘Lionesses’ and other businesswomen. Using information from a panel of over 800 male- and female-owned businesses in Ghana (ISSER-IGC survey), we capture a measure of underfunding, in addition to data on supplier credit, equity and other finance sources. Our regressions reveal a female-to-male productivity gap of between -11 to -19 percent, values similar to estimates for other African countries. However, when the relationship between gender and productivity is mediated by financial constraints, the gender performance gap disappears. Accordingly, female business-owners who indicate that funding is not a problem, are associated with higher productivity than males, all things equal. In a finding new to the literature, our regressions reveal the importance of supplier credit for Africa’s businesswomen.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Women, Business, Productivity, and Liquidity
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

286. The Many Facets of EEZ Fisheries Disputes and their Resolution under UNCLOS

Author:
Natalie Klein
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:
The core question being posed for this symposium was whether the ‘exception swallows the rule’ in relation to disputes concerning fishing in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). This question emerges because of the starting point that disputes relating to the interpretation or application of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)1 may be subject to compulsory procedures entailing binding decisions – arbitration or adjudication – at the request of a party to the Convention. However, while this ‘rule’ is the start, it is immediately important to point our that there are exceptions and limitations to this proposition; the grant of compulsory jurisdiction in UNCLOS is limited in significant ways.2 The ‘exception’ of concern to this symposium is set out in Article 297(3) of UNCLOS, which excludes fisheries disputes from adjudication or arbitration in the following situation: “the coastal State shall not be obliged to accept the submission to such settlement of any dispute relating to its sovereign rights with respect to the living resources in the exclusive economic zone or their exercise, including its discretionary powers for determining the allowable catch, its harvesting capacity, the allocation of surpluses to other States and the terms and conditions established in its conservation and management laws and regulations.“3 Pursuant to Article 298(1)(b), States also have the option to exclude ‘disputes concerning law enforcement activities in regard to the exercise of sovereign rights or jurisdiction excluded from the jurisdiction of a court or tribunal’ under Article 297(3).4 The symposium papers that follow seek to improve our understanding of these exceptions to compulsory jurisdiction; do they swallow the ‘rule’ of compulsory jurisdiction? This introduction aims to explain the relevance of the exception (Part B), situate the papers that are part of the symposium (Part C) and indicate what has been jurisprudentially achieved despite the exception (Part D).
Topic:
International Law, Sovereignty, Fishing, and Disputes
Political Geography:
Global Focus

287. NATO in the North: The emerging division of labour in Northern European security

Author:
Matti Pesu
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Russian war of aggression has rendered Northern Europe an increasingly significant region for Euro-Atlantic security. A stable and secure Northern Europe is a critical precondition for a safe and stable Euro-Atlantic region. The alliance should treat Northern Europe as a strategic whole although the different subareas of Northern Europe have their distinctive security dynamics and concerns. NATO is currently improving its deterrence and defence posture. It is simultaneously shifting its military strategy from a model of deterrence by reinforcement to one of deterrence by denial. NATO’s evolving posture and strategy in Northern Europe should be underpinned by a more explicit division of labour. The regional allies and stakeholders can be divided into four categories in terms of their role in regional security: frontline nations, hubs, security providers and the ultimate security guarantor. The regional frontline nations include the Baltic states, Finland and Poland, which can also play a role as hubs and even security providers along with the United Kingdom and Germany. Denmark, Sweden and Norway are first and foremost hubs. The United States remains the ultimate security guarantor of the area.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Europe, Nordic Nations, Arctic, and Baltic Sea

288. Enhancing small state preparedness: Risks of foreign ownership, supply disruptions and technological dependencies

Author:
Mikael Mattlin, Shaun Breslin, Elina Sinkkonen, Liisa Kauppila, and Annika Björkdahl
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The post-Cold War liberalist view, according to which interdependences supported a virtuous cycle of mutual gains, has given way to a realist-tinged view that regards economic interdependence as a cause of insecurity and an element in conflicts. In this new environment of increasing great power competition and technological decoupling, all states are not created equal. Major states such as the United States and China can be system shapers, whereas small states tend to be system takers. Unlike smaller states, they have a greater ability to use their investment leverage, supply chain dominance and control of core technologies. For smaller states with open economies, such as Finland and Sweden, these capabilities of major powers create vulnerabilities in the form of security risks of foreign ownership, supply disruptions and critical technological dependencies. The report explores how small states can mitigate such risks. A series of innovative Delphi backcasting exercises in Finland and Sweden brought together 113 sectoral experts and generalists to ponder ways to prevent dystopian scenarios from unfolding. The target years of the scenarios extended from 2027 to 2035, encouraging ideas on both short- and longer-term solutions. Instead of aiming for a consensus of expert views, the process sought to produce a variety of effective means and measures that a small state could choose to adopt. The exercise consisted of nine scenarios, presented as comic art. The narratives on the risks of foreign ownership focused on 1) acquisitions of gaming companies gathering personal data, 2) transfers of real estate ownership in Lapland and 3) venture capital investments in emerging technology start-ups. The scenarios on supply disruptions dealt with 4) discriminatory practices limiting access to antibiotics, 5) political retaliation limiting access to water treatment components and 6) sanctions on wind power materials, components and minerals. As for high technology dependencies, the cases included 7) the maintenance of military technology, 8) the cybersecurity of health technology and 9) the supply of chemicals for research and development activities. According to the report, small states have the least leeway in navigating the risk environments created by technological dependencies, whereas the toolkits to tackle the potential dangers of foreign ownership and supply disruptions are more extensive. Although different issues and insecurities require different bespoke solutions, all the risk categories call for active mitigation efforts. Most of the suggested Finnish and Swedish expert solutions can be clustered into three alternative approaches: protectionist/interventionist, liberal and technologically oriented. Protectionist/interventionist solutions would expand the state’s powers in controlling, guiding and limiting economic activities. Key suggestions included: covering acquisitions and greenfield investments in national foreign direct investment screening screening real estate acquisitions with a wide range of countries of origin imposing country-specific limitations to real estate acquisitions screening venture capital investments in emerging technologies initiating a national security act to limit foreign control rapidly imposing country- and company-specific limitations to bids in critical industries increasing tariffs supporting domestic or EU-level production through subsidies and industrial policy friendshoring the production of critical goods expanding the scope of supply stockpiling in pharmaceuticals and water treatment components The more liberal approach towards national preparedness would focus on solving the challenges primarily through carrots instead of sticks – to avoid limiting entrepreneurial freedoms and interfering with the dynamics of the capitalist market economy. The proposed solutions included: initiating value debates to guide individuals’ choices when accepting investments formulating a national innovation strategy to boost domestic companies’ operating conditions in emerging technology fields teaching “technology literacy” to guide the use of foreign-owned products engaging all stakeholders in making decisions on foreign ownership diversifying the sources of critical goods such as antibiotics enhancing awareness of risks and making “plan Bs” in supply chain management deepening the EU’s single market to offer genuine scalability opportunities for start-ups The third, more technologically oriented approach would rely on new innovations or technical solutions to enhance small state preparedness. Key ideas included: innovating new medicines to replace antibiotics prioritising non-conventional technologies such as small modular reactors (SMRs) enhancing domestic capacity to produce key components with 3D printing researching alternative materials to replace critical chemicals developing the recycling, recovery and transportation of critical chemicals adopting geofencing and coding solutions to enhance cybersecurity designating emerging technologies as focus areas in higher education increasing the adaptability of technical solutions through standardisation These three approaches prioritise different key solutions for enhancing small state preparedness. However, they represent generic policy preferences rather than ready-made policy recommendations. Ideally, states can formulate their own pick-and-mix toolkit by combining elements from the different approaches. The complementary nature of some of the expert views was also suggested by the fact that many – even most – respondents argued for diversification as a solution to various challenges. For example, and regardless of the chosen strategy, tendering rules could be improved by placing quality over price, taking geopolitical risks into account and allowing multiple winners in contrast to the currently dominant winner-takes-it-all logic, which leads to overly concentrated supply chains. Moreover, at least minor legislative tightenings were widely proposed to be made on foreign ownership – especially with regard to that of nationals of authoritarian states. These changes were, however, typically proposed to be complemented with such balancing acts as long-term leases and incentives to develop and acquire domestic products and companies. Ultimately, by highlighting alternative approaches to small state preparedness, this report seeks to encourage democratic discussion on a broader political choice: what type of state and economy do we want in the future? It is not only their identity that guides what states do; adopted policies and means also shape state identities over time.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Supply, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
China, Finland, Asia, Sweden, and United States of America

289. Mapping Pathways for Peace through the Composition of Official Development Assistance

Author:
Jannie Lilja and Gary Milante
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Mapping the changing composition of official development assistance (ODA) against peace and conflict patterns in recipient countries over time can enhance the understanding of how pathways to peace look like in practice. This working paper presents empirical findings from more comprehensive research into the composition of ODA across aid recipient countries in the period 1990–2020. ODA is broken down into humanitarian, development and peacebuilding aid components. While development assistance is found to dominate across all types of country contexts, and the humanitarian share tends to be larger during conflict, peacebuilding assistance varies by conditions in countries. Post-conflict countries that avoid conflict relapse receive significantly higher shares of peacebuilding aid compared to post-conflict countries that relapse. A ternary graph is introduced to strategically track the composition of the total ODA envelope at the country level during different time periods. The findings suggest that a more effective future deployment of ODA for the advancement of peace and stability is possible.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

290. Governance Practices in Turkey: A Comparative Perspective

Author:
Dimitris Tsarouhas
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Turkey’s latest National Development Plan seeks to attain economic and social development equal to that of the world’s most prosperous states. By structuring expectations and incentives for economic and political actors, institutions play a key role in achieving sustainable, long-term development. This paper provides a systematic longitudinal analysis of core governance indicators which shed light on Turkey’s evolution over time from a comparative perspective. The results point to a sharp decline in the institutional efficacy of the Turkish apparatus of state vis a vis core aspects of the country’s development agenda, especially with regard to the rule of law, public administration, regulatory capacity, and predictability. Turkey’s declining scores in recent years fly in the face of its political agenda and severely undermine welfare gains made in the early 21st century.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Governance, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

291. Made in Europe: An EU Green Industrial Plan to respond to the challenge of US and Chinese protectionism

Author:
Alekos Kritikos and George Pagoulatos
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The EU needs to urgently formulate a response to US and Chinese protectionism. US decarbonization legislation poses a threat of deindustrialization for Europe. Europe needs a plan to support EU green, industrial and technological competitiveness, while protecting European cohesion and the single market, and promoting European strategic autonomy. Relaxing EU state aid rules must be an inevitable first component of Europe’s response. But this would overwhelmingly benefit the stronger economies of Germany and France, undermining EU cohesion and the integrity of the single market. Thus, the second component of EU response must be a European Sovereignty Fund, of a size commensurate to the magnitude of the challenge. The new Fund must support value chain categories that include as many EU member states as possible. SURE, extended to encompass the energy crisis and green transition, should be an integral part of the mix, and so should promoting technological skills and reskilling for the “Clean Tech Economy”. Investment funding should seek to contribute to vertical integration, including as many stages in the supply chain as possible. It should contribute to the return of specific supply chains and production units from third countries to the EU and seek to include the EU’s weakest economies. Subsidies should rise if the investment is cross-border in nature and carry a bonus if made in an EU region with a low GDP per capita compared to the EU average. Funding could also promote European strategic autonomy by including cross-border partnerships of EU member states in the defence technology industry. It should involve new funding rather than simply recycling money from existing programmes, and certainly avoid deploying undisbursed resources from the Recovery & Resilience Fund.
Topic:
European Union, Investment, Industry, Protectionism, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

292. Turkey’s Kurds: Kingmakers in the upcoming elections?

Author:
Evangelos Areteos and Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Surveys show profound changes in the social attitudes of Kurds in Turkey. Younger Kurds are more liberal socially and more flexible politically. The years 2015–2016 marked a turning point for Kurdish society and brought different attitudes to light among both impoverished and middle-class Kurds. The AKP has been losing Kurdish support because of their alliance with the nationalist MHP and policies perceived as being anti-Kurdish. The CHP, while starting very low, has been gaining Kurdish support. The CHP’s strategy of reconciliation and talking about crimes committed against the Kurds in the past has been paying off. While the “Table of Six” does not offer much in the way of concrete benefits for the Kurds, some parties in the People’s Alliance (e.g. Deva, Gelecek) are more progressive vis-a-vis Kurdish demands.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Kurds, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

293. Hydrodiplomacy and the Food, Water and Energy Nexus: A holistic approach for transboundary cooperation and peace

Author:
Fadi Comair
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The rapid social and economic development in the world is leading to increased levels of water stress that point to potential water crises. As the most vital and strategic of natural resources, water can serve as an instrument of domination or of cooperation. Given the presence of key geopolitical concerns in the Near East, regional hydro-diplomatic cooperation is necessary to ensure fair sharing of the resource and to avoid additional tensions and conflict. Nine of the seventeen EMME countries are below the absolute water scarcity threshold of 500 m3/year per capita, including all six countries in the Gulf region, Jordan and Palestine. Those countries that share major transboundary basins in the EMME region such as the Nile, Jordan and Tigris-Euphrates basins are subject to multiple challenges which include unilateral water resources management, water scarcity, and environmental degradation leading to food insecurity. Hydrodiplomacy is a tool for applying integrated water resource management at a national and transboundary level in accordance with a cooperative model seeking peace among riparian countries. Multiple UN agencies contribute to bringing riparian countries together with a view to fostering dialogue and the sharing of information on water management and transboundary cooperation.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Water, Food, Geopolitics, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

294. The Greek Defence Sector: Turning the Page?

Author:
Antonis Kamaras
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
From the 1980s to the 2000s, Greece’s defence industry was mismanaged and failed to utilize Greece’s high defence expenditures to become innovative. The impact of Greece’s fiscal crisis and the subsequent expansion of the Turkish threat mean that both economics and geopolitics now favour an invigorated Greek defence sector. The first major weapons procurement programme since the end of Greece’s fiscal crisis has not meaningfully involved the Greek defence sector. Yet the sector’s future prospects have improved, assured by the need for the sector to be financially viable and internationally competitive and by the broader awareness of the defence sector as a building block in national defence. The EU’s growing role in Europe’s collective defence, driven by continent-wide geopolitical developments and industrial imperatives, will also boost the prospects of the Greek defence sector. Mutually reinforcing obstacles still hamper the Greek defence sector’s progress: (a) a polity which privileges distribution over capital investments in its fiscal choices, and (b) an officer corps which lacks the degree of autonomy to co-create novel defence solutions together with the Greek defence sector. Despite these obstacles, the ongoing Turkish threat engenders national insecurity within Greece to such an extent that it can drive the sustainable growth of the Greek defence sector.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Innovation, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

295. Domestic implementation of European Court of Human Rights’ judgments related to immigration in Greece

Author:
Dia Anagnostou
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
In recent decades, the European Court of Human Rights has evolved into a leading judicial body which examines and identifies violations committed by states in the management of migration and asylum. Greece is one of the countries that has been condemned in a large number of judgements relating to administrative detention, reception and accommodation conditions, the treatment of migrants by the police and border authorities, the asylum system, the treatment of unaccompanied minors, and human trafficking. This paper examines the Greek authorities’ compliance with the ECtHR judgements in this area. It focuses on general measures which relate to broader changes in the legislation and case law, as well as on administrative practice in Greece. It analyses the obstacles and difficulties present in this area, and it makes policy recommendations. It argues that a new approach is needed to Greece’s compliance with regard to the human rights of migrants and refugees. This approach should be focused on structural reforms and it should have the express commitment of the country’s political leadership. It would require systematic efforts to instil a new mindset within the public administration that is supportive of human rights protection as a priority and democratic responsibility, rather than as an externally imposed, necessary evil.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Judiciary, Asylum, and European Court of Human Rights (ECHR)
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

296. The Syrian Civil War Twelve Years On: Can There Be a Constructive Role for Greece?

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Loukas I. Papavasileiou
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Continual and ever-growing foreign involvement led to the internationalization of the armed conflict and turned Syria into a battleground for the strategic competition of several powers. The Kremlin has long viewed Hafez and Bashar al-Assad as indispensable partners in the Middle East and has repeatedly offered its diplomatic and military support in an attempt to achieve its own strategic objectives. Given the destabilizing effects the unending Syrian crisis has had on Middle Eastern and Eastern Mediterranean security, Greece maintains a profound interest in the resolution of the conflict. Greece appointed a Special Envoy for Syria in May 2020 with a view to reinvigorating its policy vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis. Greece’s successful re-engagement with key Arab countries and improved relations with other regional actors could pave the way for a more prominent Greek role in Syria. This could entail reinforcing its diplomatic cooperation with the EU Delegation to Syria, leading the EU humanitarian relief effort following the devastating earthquakes that hit Syria on 6 February 2023, and formulating a realistic and forward-looking strategy for the future of the Syrian people, including provisions for the voluntary repatriation of refugees and the protection of minority rights.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Refugees, Political stability, Syrian War, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Greece, and Syria

297. Dersimli Kemal for President?

Author:
Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
As of 6 March 2023, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, chairman of the CHP, is the joint candidate of the largest Opposition alliance. As such, for the first time, an Alevi has the chance of occupying one of the highest positions in Turkey. Since he is also Kurdish, he represents the two largest ethnic and confessional minorities in Turkey. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (74) was born in a small village in Dersim/Tunceli province. He managed to become the director of a state institution and has been the chairman of the CHP since 2010. The Alevi are by far the largest non-Sunni religious group in Turkey, representing roughly 15–20 percent of the population. There are huge differences in the definition of what an Alevi is, ranging from Anatolian Muslims to a branch of Shia Islam and from a religion in its own right to a culture. In both the Ottoman Empire and the Republic of Turkey, Alevis have been subject to persecution, discrimination and exclusion. In 1937/38, the state committed large-scale atrocities against the population of Dersim. The burning of a hotel in 1993 during an Alevi festival proved to be a turning point for Alevi awareness and civil society organization. The AKP launched an ‘Alevi opening’ in 2008 to address issues including recognition for Alevi places of worship and religious instruction; although the initiative continued until 2011, nothing concrete was achieved. Prejudices, discrimination and the othering of Alevis continue to this day. Since 2018, Kılıçdaroğlu has been the architect of the National Alliance; consisting of six diverse parties since 2022, the opposition group has been dubbed the ‘Table of Six’. In the summer of 2022, Alevi Cem Houses were attacked. President Erdoğan subsequently visited a Cem House for the first time in 15 years; in fall 2022, he announced the creation of a Directorate to deal with Alevi issues. On 14 May 2023, in the Republic’s centenary year, an Alevi could become president of Turkey. After many years of polarization, this could send out a message of unity, of differences bridged and differences accepted.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

298. Drafting Greece’s “Internal Security Strategy” – Challenges and Prospects

Author:
Panayotis Tsakonas and Triandafyllos Karatrantos
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The radical change in the structure of the international system caused a scientific and political revolution in the definition and concept of security. Issues such as the climate crisis, forced displacements and extreme nationalism have led the interest and especially the debate on achieving security from external to internal threats. The focus is now on the main “object of reference” of security which is not the state or some sub-state groups, but “the individual”/”the citizen”. In the modern globalized environment, all the risks that threaten the daily life of citizens require dealing with the concept of security in a “holistic” and, at the same time, more “human-centered” way. Greece lacks an institutional document for the internal security strategy. There are structural reasons that make a comprehensive reform of the internal security sector necessary. In addition to the established weaknesses and inadequacies of specific agencies and/or services of the internal security system, the overall organic interconnection between crisis management services is still required. The first lesson from the effects of the pandemic is the need for the evolution of Greece into a “Modern National Security State”. Greece, due to its geographical position on the external borders of the EU, as well as the crises it has experienced in recent years, faces a series of internal security threats and challenges. Security and respect for fundamental rights are not mutually conflicting but coherent and complementary objectives. The Strategy will help build an internal security governance system and a central coordination process.
Topic:
Security, Governance, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

299. A New New Turkey? What an Opposition Victory Would Mean for Ankara’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Nicholas Danforth
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The opposition foreign policy platform seeks to improve relations with the West while simultaneously continuing to pursue a more independent foreign policy. Securing the safe, voluntary and legal return of Syrian refugees through rapprochement with the Assad regime, as the opposition proposes, will prove a non-starter. Ultimately, a democratic Turkey that calibrates its foreign policy to the interests of its citizens rather than the interests of one man will be a stronger and more reliable actor on the global stage.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

300. Diplomatic scramble: Greek foreign policy towards Libya

Author:
Constantine Capsaskis
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Libya became a country of immediate interest to Greece following its 2019 Memorandum of Understanding with Turkey. Greece engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity in the aftermath of the MoU, both within Libya and the wider region, to counter Turkey’s momentum with Tripoli. The complex political situation in Libya and its many facets (proxy conflicts between regional and international players, competition for energy resources, and other factors including religion) compound the difficulties confronting Greek efforts to shield Greece’s interests. European division over Libya has led Greece to seek other bilateral approaches, primarily through cooperation with France and Egypt. Turkey’s attempts to normalize relations with its regional interlocutors (primarily Egypt, Israel and Greece) following the devastating earthquake that struck the country in February 2023 may yet change conditions on the ground in Libya, though it is still too early to tell.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, Libya, and North Africa