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1851. Turkey’s Soft Power in the Balkans Reaching its Limits

Author:
Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
With the EU putting the Western Balkan countries in an undefined waiting room, there was more room for maneuver for non-EU players. Turkey among others used this space to broaden its influence in the Balkans from politics to the economy, from culture to military cooperation, albeit from a very low starting point. The bilateral relations with all countries of the region are rather good, President Erdogan enjoys the recognition he is often lacking in other parts of the world. While the pandemic further harmed the EU’s image, it was mostly China and Russia who could fill the void with their own vaccines. Lacking its own vaccine so far, Turkey was much less visible. However, in the long-run, Turkey is not interested in an EU-Turkey confrontation over the Western Balkans, but that these countries join the EU. Through this, Turkey would increase the number of allies in a bloc where friends have become few.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Turkey, and Balkans

1852. Protecting employment in 2021 and beyond: what can the new SURE instrument do?

Author:
Christina Kattami
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Protecting employment was not just a 2020 issue – while 2021 will be racing for vaccinations, and the immediate and complete relaxation of the containment measures will remain unlikely, the need to protect incomes and jobs will be as relevant as ever. As such, this policy brief analyses the rationale for, and the integration qualities of, the SURE instrument, which is being implemented following a European Commission proposal in April 2020 and a Council decision on 19 May 2020. By establishing the importance of short-time work schemes in protecting employment during the crucial first months of the pandemic, the brief explains the solidarity function of the SURE instrument, which ensures that all Member States have the resources available to make use of similar schemes to protect jobs, workers and incomes. Additionally, the decision to fund the SURE instrument with social bonds, which have been met with consistently overwhelming investor demand, forms an initial treasury form of what can be regarded as a European safe asset; something which will be strengthened in size and scope by the incoming European bonds funding the Recovery Instrument, Next Generation EU. Moving beyond 2021 and looking into a future model of employment protection in the future of the European labour market, the brief outlines the legal and political feasibility of transforming SURE into a permanent employment scheme, and, as such, an instrument of integration and socioeconomic resilience in the European Union.
Topic:
European Union, Employment, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe

1853. Economic Linkages across the Mediterranean: Trends on trade, investments and energy

Author:
Panagiota Manoli
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The Mediterranean is of multifaceted importance for the global economy, as it is one of the most highly valued seas globally. However, the region’s growth and economic integration path has often been obstructed by political upheavals and conflicts. This paper focuses on key features of the current regional dynamics in trade, investments and energy as sources of growth in the Mediterranean, with a view to assessing where the region stands today. The Mediterranean’s regional economic linkages manifest two dominant features: on the one hand, there is the marked heterogeneity of the countries’ performance in foreign trade, investment flows and energy (oil and gas) potential; on the other hand, there is the strong north-south element that shapes all intra-regional flows. These features indicate that, despite weak integration at a regional level, opportunities exist to strengthen intra-regional links as the Mediterranean further integrates into the global economy and benefits from long-standing multilateral and cooperative structures across the region.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Global Political Economy, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
Mediterranean

1854. A Mediterranean Duel: Erdogan, Sisi and the Fate of Egyptian-Turkish Relations

Author:
Nick Danforth
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Current tensions between Egypt and Turkey emerged in the wake of Egypt’s 2013 coup. They reflect a deep divide between General Sisi’s hostility toward the Muslim Brotherhood and President Erdogan’s support for it. Yet this rivalry has now become exacerbated by new geopolitical fault lines in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean, which increasingly pit Turkey against a coalition of regional actors including not just Egypt but also Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As a result of these multiple, intersecting factors, Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement will prove difficult for the foreseeable future.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Muslim Brotherhood, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Political Geography:
Turkey, North Africa, Egypt, and Mediterranean

1855. ΕU-Turkey Relations and the Migration Challenge: What is the Way Forward?

Author:
Panayotis Tsakonas
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Although disruption remains the norm in Turkey’s behavior, the EU should stand firm in developing a strategy of “balancing engagement” to keep Turkey anchored in the broader European and transatlantic framework. The Customs Union is an important instrument at the EU’s disposal for concluding an agreement with Turkey and negotiations can lead to an agreement that would balance European and Turkish interests. Moreover, a European strategy towards Turkey should address not only the immediate challenge of Turkey’s assertive behavior in the Eastern Mediterranean, but also the future of EU-Turkey relations along with the pressing migration challenge. An updated EU-Turkey Statement should rectify certain provisions of the current Statement on migration regarding Greece as well as Turkey’s intention to exploit migrants and refugees. Greece is in favor of a “rules-based” relationship between the European Union and Turkey. It could be an active contributor to the advancement of the EU strategy of “balancing engagement” by co-shaping Turkey’s new relationship with the EU.
Topic:
Migration, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

1856. Greece’s Rise as a Trans-Mediterranean Power: Greece’s Eastern Mediterranean strategic shift to Europe-to-Africa and Europe-to-Middle East connectivity

Author:
Michaël Tanchum
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Greece stands at the threshold of a strategic shift that could see the Hellenic Republic become Europe’s geopolitical gatekeeper of the emerging East Africa-to-Europe and Middle East-to-Europe commercial corridors. Whether Greece becomes a European leader in trans-Mediterranean connectivity depends on Athens’ ability to develop its own position in East Africa-to-Europe and Middle East-to-Europe manufacturing value chains. Greece’s advancing green energy, innovation economy offers promising avenues to engage Egypt, Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia in joint ventures that will transform Greece into a cutting-edge trans-Mediterranean actor. Greece’s new trans-Mediterranean profile is a strategic shift that will require the EU system to adjust its perception of Greece and incentivize closer coordination between Greece and other member states to facilitate joint venture investments in the two corridors. In the absence of such coordination, Athens will continue to deepen its relations with Egypt, Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia while engaging with select EU member states. The extent to which Greece succeeds at industrial value chain integration will determine its role in the emerging trans-regional commercial architecture, and with it, Greece’s strategic standing within the European Union and the MENA region.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Value Chains
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean

1857. Turkish drones, Greek challenges

Author:
Antonis Kamaras
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the evolution of Turkey’s capacity to conduct drone-led warfare, an evolution driven by its assertive national security and foreign policy. It connects this feature of Turkey’s war-fighting capability to the debate on the impact drones have on the modern battlefield and on conflictual interstate relations. The paper attributes the underdevelopment of Greece’s drone and counter-drone capacity to the country’s fiscal crisis and to the civilian leadership’s unwillingness to make use of Greece’s alliances, geographical position and R&D ecosystem to develop such capacities. The analysis identifies the factors and processes that can accelerate the speed at which the Greek armed forces ready themselves to meet the evolving challenges—including drones—posed by their assertive neighbour.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Drones, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean

1858. Turkey’s Post-2016 Foreign Policy Drivers: Militarisation, Islam, Civilisation and Power

Author:
Ahmet Öztürk
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Dramatic political changes in Turkey are not limited to the degradation of state institutions or the democratic backsliding. Turkey is experiencing a substantial change in foreign policy as well. In this context, this study argues that new Turkey’s new foreign policy understanding rests on four inter-related parameters that pertain to the priorities of the country’s ruling coalition: militarisation, Islam, civilisation and power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islam, Civilization, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

1859. Turkey and the West: A Hostile Dance

Author:
Nick Danforth
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Tensions between Turkey and the West have steadily worsened over the past five years, but analysts are still no closer to predicting what this means for the future. Many assume that longstanding strategic and economic ties will ultimately force both sides to muddle through and preserve their relationship, while others anticipate that pressure will build to the point where a decisive break becomes inevitable. This paper examines a number of different scenarios that have been put forward for Turkey’s relations with the US and EU, then tries to navigate between the most plausible among them to predict how this hostile dance might progress.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, United States of America, and Mediterranean

1860. Greek Diaspora in an uncertain world

Author:
Othon Anastasakis and Antonis Kamaras
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Greece’s fiscal crisis has energized its relationship with its diaspora in the last several years, after decades of decline, as well as reshaping the diaspora itself due to the massive crisis-driven migration. Research institutes as well as individual scholars have addressed key aspects of the diaspora and homeland relationship prior to and during the crisis. South East European Studies at Oxford (SEESOX) established in 2015 the Greek Diaspora Project, a dedicated research unit which has applied the well-established diaspora and development literature to the Greek case, in the crisis and post-crisis years. The opportunities for synergistic research between University centers and think tanks located in Greece and abroad, in satisfactorily addressing this crisis-driven transformation of the diaspora & homeland relationship, are compelling. SEESOX and ELIAMEP have thus decided to collaborate so they can catalyse such synergies both between themselves and with universities in Greece and abroad. SEESOX’s and ELIAMEP’s joint endeavor will be resolutely comparative as well as cross-disciplinary, reflecting both the requirements of a highly advanced diaspora studies prospectus as well as the respective strengths of the two partners.
Topic:
Migration, Diaspora, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece