Content Type: Working Paper / Publication Year: within 3 Years

601. The Political and Economic Crisis in Sri Lanka

Author:: Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: After months of mass protests over the drastic deterioration of living conditions in Sri Lanka, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country on 13 July and resigned . This marks the end of almost two decades of rule by the Rajapaksa clan, but it does not end the political crisis that will complicate the way to economic recovery. The change of power on the island will limit China’s influence and open up opportunities for India and Western countries.
Topic:: Politics, Crisis Management, Civil Unrest, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: South Asia and Sri Lanka

602. What Next for Georgia's Foreign Policy

Author:: Arkadiusz Legieć
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: During the European Council summit on 23 June, Georgia was not granted EU candidate status, unlike Ukraine and Moldova, and received only the prospect of EU accession. Georgia is the most pro-European state in the South Caucasus. The effectiveness of its Euro-Atlantic foreign policy course is hampered by internal political polarisation and Russia’s policies towards the region. Georgia’s continued cooperation with the EU and NATO will depend primarily on its willingness to implement reforms and the development of an internal consensus between the government and opposition.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Domestic Politics, Polarization, Russia-Ukraine War, and European Council
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Georgia

603. Turkish Opposition Focuses on Foreign Policy Corrections

Author:: Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: According to polls, the Turkish opposition candidate has a chance to defeat Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in next year’s presidential elections. Although the opposition parties’ vision of foreign policy is not consistent, as evidenced by public divergences in, for example, the approach to the EU or the war in Ukraine, they remain consistent with the need to improve Türkiye’s relations with the West.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

604. States Seek Treaty on Plastic Pollution

Author:: Szymon Zaręba
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: With negotiations likely to start later this year, a treaty supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is expected to make it possible to tackle the problem of plastic waste pollution, a transnational problem requiring international cooperation. The challenge will not be its adoption as much as its implementation, as it requires legislative action and investment by countries and business. However, it will benefit especially the environment, biodiversity, and human health. It is in Poland’s interest to negotiate flexible solutions and identify directions for national action.
Topic:: Environment, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Pollution, and Plastic
Political Geography:: Poland and Global Focus

605. Inside China’s Techno-Security State

Author:: Tai Ming Cheung
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: Since coming to power, Xi Jinping has significantly elevated the importance of national security and technological innovation in the country’s overall priorities. He has invested considerable time, effort, and political capital to establish an expansive techno-security state based upon his strategic and ideological vision. This brief examines the five major methods Xi’s administration has undertaken to develop its techno-security state: developing a national security state, innovation-driven development, military strengthening, military-civilian fusion, and economic securitization.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Industrial Policy, International Security, Innovation, Strategic Competition, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

606. The Political Economy of the Landscape of Trade Unions in Bangladesh: The Case of the RMG Sector

Author:: Mirza M. Hassan, Syeda Salina Aziz, Raeesa Rahemin, Insiya Khan, and Rafsanul Hoque
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: The paper explores the political economy landscape of trade unionism in Bangladesh. The focus is on the Ready-Made Garments (RMG) sector, where trade unions (TU) are highly salient and relatively more operational because of the sector’s economic importance, numerical strength of the labour, high degree of concentration of the industries, and TU’s global network, among other factors. Relying predominantly on primary data, we look at both the formal and informal dimensions of industrial relations and their implications for the state-capital-labour interactions as well as governance of TUs. Literature on RMG-related TUs in Bangladesh generally examines it from a social movement perspective. We take a slightly different approach in this paper by making a modest attempt to fulfil the knowledge gaps in TU research. We do this by exploring the formal and informal aspects of relations between the regulatory institutions and the TUs and, more importantly, the internal governance of the TUs themselves as noted above. Additionally, we explore the two-way relational dynamics of TU leaders and the garment workers. These areas have not received much attention in the extant literature. By adopting a politico-sociological perspective, the paper reflects on the collective action dynamics of industrial labour in the context of the global south.
Topic:: Political Economy, Labor Issues, Economy, Trade Unions, and Textile Industry
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

607. Tracking Gender-Based Violence and Backlash Against Women’s Rights in the Digital Space: Cases From Bangladesh

Author:: Pragyna Mahpara, Iffat Jahan Antara, Shravasti Roy Nath, and Nuha Annoor Pabony
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: Social media platforms such as Facebook can be effective in spreading positive awareness of gender equality and women’s rights; however, those who oppose these beliefs also use the same platform as a medium for spreading their ideologies. This paper aimed to examine the backlash faced by women public figures who are active on social media and shared content about Gender-based violence, along with the actors behind it. The study also looked into two controversial national events which raised discussions on sexual harassment and violence against women and the effectiveness of the Digital Security Act (DSA) 2018 and other relevant laws and policies used to counter these sorts of violence. A qualitative approach was followed with an analysis of the Facebook accounts related to the case studies and some quantitative data was collected through CrowdTangle software. The study showed that all female public figures faced a backlash mostly from men and boys with some comments from women. While they sought a remedy, DSA did not play a strong role. Women’s rights issues such as women’s education, employment, and domestic violence are seen as liberal feminism while issues like consent, divorce, single parenthood, sexuality, and gender diversity are considered more radical issues.
Topic:: Human Rights, Women, Social Media, Gender Based Violence, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

608. “Youth Policy Papers” produced by Pal-Think’s Civic Education Corps

Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: As part of its primary role of promoting the values of democracy, justice, human rights, and dialogue among Palestinian youth, Pal-Think for Strategic Studies has conducted the “Civic Education 2” project funded by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) for the second consecutive year. The project’s goal is to amplify Palestinian young men and women’s skills and background on democracy and human rights issues. This book marks the conclusion of the theoretical and practical training program that empowered 25 youth to conduct awareness-raising meetings and discuss their issues in radio interviews. Afterward, the participants prepared five research papers that addressed various issues from a youth perspective in an analytical way and in line with the IMRaD format. Finally, Pal-Think would like to thank everyone who contributed to producing this youth-centered, informative effort, whether through reading or discussing the papers. Pal-Think affirms its determination to continue its work, plans, and programs that aim at improving youth’s access to policy-making centers and promoting their social role.
Topic:: Human Rights, Youth Culture, Democracy, and Youth
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

609. Legal Report – A Highlight on Political, Economic, and Social Rights in Palestine

Author:: Palthink
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Within the activities of PalThink Academy for Human Rights and Democracy, PalThink produced a report titled A Highlight on Political, Economic, and Social Rights in Palestine. The report mainly provided a profound analysis of the current public situation in the Palestinian territories from 2019 to 2022. Furthermore, the report was anchored on six indicators including good governance, political participation, public freedom, education, health, and labour. In addition, it gave an in-depth insight into the root causes and consequences of ongoing violations of human rights. To conclude, the report proposed recommendations pertaining to the needed interventions to alleviate the challenges facing human rights in Palestine. This project is supported by the ifa’s zivik Funding Programme and implemented by PalThink for Strategic Studies.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Human Rights, and Social Order
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

610. Situation Analysis Paper: Hate Speech and its Implications on Civil Peace and Social Harmony

Author:: Yahya Qaoud and Da'd Mahmoud
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The paper presents a set of recommendations to reduce hate-based violence and promote civil peace without prejudice to the freedom of opinion and expression by enacting deterrent laws and procedures at the official and unofficial levels to raise awareness about hate speech and its dangers.
Topic:: Civil Society, Freedom of Expression, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

611. Digitalisation for Sustainable Infrastructure: The Road Ahead

Author:: Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: In today’s tumultuous and fast-changing times, digitalisation and technology are game changers in a wide range of sectors and have a tremendous impact on infrastructure. Roads, railways, electricity grids, aviation, and maritime transport are deeply affected by the digital and technological transition, with gains in terms of competitiveness, cost-reduction, and safety. Digitalisation is also a key tool for fostering global commitment towards sustainability, but the race for digital infrastructure is also a geopolitical one. As the world’s largest economies are starting to adopt competitive strategies, a level playing field appears far from being agreed upon. Why are digitalisation and technology the core domains of global geopolitical competition? How are they changing the way infrastructure is built, operated, and maintained? To what extent will road, rail, air, and maritime transport change by virtue of digitalisation, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things? How to enhance cyber protection for critical infrastructure? What are the EU’s, US’ and China's digital strategies?
Topic:: Science and Technology, Infrastructure, European Union, Sustainability, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

612. The impact of the Ukraine crisis on international trade

Author:: Zsolt Darvas and Catarina Martins
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: We study the economic implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, by scrutinising global trade volumes and commodity prices, trade balances and bilateral trade flows between major economic powers and Russia. We find that energy prices increased more in 2021 than in 2022, suggesting that the war and the sanctions were not the most important drivers. Nevertheless, International Monetary Fund forecast revisions from October 2021 to October 2022 suggest that the volume of global trade in goods and services declined by 3.4 percent, energy prices increased by about 100 percent, and the prices of non-energy commodities by 8 percent. The war could be an important driver of these forecast revisions, though other factors were also at play. While forecasts for important industrial production input costs were not revised, soaring energy prices deteriorated the trade balance of countries importing energy. Only half of the increase in Russia’s trade surplus was related to soaring energy prices. The other half resulted from the collapse of Russian imports, which will likely undermine the Russian economy’s productive capacity over time. Falling Russian exports of goods other than mineral fuels suggest Russia’s productive capacity has already weakened. Russia’s trade has been reoriented from advanced economies to China, India and Turkey, but this has only partially compensated for the decline in trade with advanced countries. We find that sanctions had an impact on trade. There is no evidence of European and US companies circumventing sanctions by re-routing sanctioned goods to Russia via China and Turkey. The UK and the US have already stopped importing fossil fuels from Russia, and such imports by the EU have declined. With the EU’s Russian seaborne crude petroleum import ban taking effect in December 2022 and the refined petroleum ban coming to effect in February 2023, Russia’s revenues from fossil fuel exports to the EU are set to shrink significantly, with limited options for redirecting exports to other countries. The three main policy-relevant implications from our research are: The war and the sanctions are not the most important drivers of energy price; The direct aim of sanctions seems to have been achieved; The capacity of the Russian state to finance the war from fossil fuel revenues is bound to shrink. The dataset used for most charts of this working paper is regularly updated and is available in the Russian foreign trade tracker
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Fossil Fuels, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

613. You’ll never talk alone: what media narratives on European reforms reveal about a polity in the making

Author:: Emmanuel Mourion-Druol, Henrik Müller, Giuseppe Porcaro, and Tobias Schmidt
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: This paper analyses the discourse since 2001 in three leading national business newspapers about reforms in the European Union: Handelsblatt (Germany), Il Sole (Italy) and Les Echos (France). We collected and organised a large dataset of articles published in these three newspapers. We used topic modelling to identify latent topics across articles. Based on this database, we then addressed four research questions and found: a relative degree of synchronisation of reform debates across the three countries; comparable reporting patterns, especially around the main crises; a greater degree of direction of the debate towards European issues over national issues in Germany than in France and Italy; and the tentative emergence of a shared narrative about crises. Finally, we highlight that bringing conflict and contestation back into European discussions may help stimulate wider interest in European matters.
Topic:: Reform, European Union, Media, and News Analysis
Political Geography:: Europe

614. Deglobalisation and Protectionism

Author:: Uri Dadush
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Trade in goods has slowed markedly since the global financial crisis (GFC), but there is no deglobalisation: most countries have seen increased international integration across nearly all goods, services and factor markets. China has become more self-reliant and is a notable exception in goods trade. Despite some dramatic instances, protectionism has largely been kept at bay and trade in goods remains quite free, perhaps freer than it was before the GFC. The proliferation and deepening of free trade agreements have contributed to this outcome. There has been deglobalisation of capital markets, but not because of protectionism. Despite efforts to erect barriers in some sensitive sectors, technology flows quite freely across borders because of the internet. However, trade policy uncertainty increased after the election of President Trump, a trend that persists under President Biden, and the biggest challenge is to avoid backsliding. There are many missed opportunities in the globalisation of services and of capital flows – especially those to developing countries. Increased migration remains potentially the largest source of gain from globalisation, but it is also the most fraught politically.
Topic:: Economy, Trade, Trade Policy, and Competition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

615. Greeniums in sovereign bond markets

Author:: Monika Grzegorczyk
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The total market value of green bonds exceeded half a trillion dollars in 2021 and will increase to $1 trillion by the end of 2022. The growing European green sovereign bond market has a value of close to €147 billion at issuance. We study whether investors price green sovereign bonds differently to normal sovereign bonds. We do not expect to find a so-called ‘greenium’: the promise attached to green sovereign bonds is rather loosely defined and green and normal sovereign bonds are both backed by the full faith and credit of their respective governments. However, when systematically matching green and normal sovereign bonds using a number of criteria, including date of issuance and maturity, a small greenium can be measured. More research is needed to understand why rational investors do not arbitrage away this greenium.
Topic:: Finance, Economy, Public Debt, Bonds, Green Economy, and Sovereign Bonds
Political Geography:: Global Focus

616. Risks to job quality from digital technologies: are industrial relations in Europe ready for the challenge?

Author:: Janine Berg, Francis Green, Laura Nurski, and David Spencer
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: We examine the job quality effects of new digital technologies in Europe, using the framework of seven job quality ‘domains’: pay, working time quality, prospects, skills and discretion, work intensity, social environment and physical environment. The theoretical effects from new technology are ambivalent for all domains. Data on robot shocks matched to the European Working Conditions Surveys for 2010 and 2015 is used to generate empirical estimates, which show significant aggregate negative effects in three domains, and a positive effect in one. Some negative effects are enhanced where there is below-median collective bargaining. In light of these analyses, and in order to think through the challenge of regulating the development and implementation of all forms of digital technologies, we review regulations in several European countries. Drawing on the principles of human-centred design, we advance the general hypothesis that worker participation is important for securing good job quality outcomes, at both the innovation and adoption stages. We also consider the application to the regulation of job quality of national and supra-national data protection legislation. In these ways, the paper extends the debate about the future of work beyond employment and pay, to a consideration of job quality more broadly.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Employment, and Work
Political Geography:: Europe

617. A gender perspective on artificial intelligence and jobs: The vicious cycle of digital inequality

Author:: Estrella Gomez-Herrera and Sabine Köszegi
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The worldwide artificial intelligence market is expected to increase enormously in the next few years. Because of AI’s immense potential, virtually all industries will be affected by the implementation of AI systems, resulting in the digitalisation and automation of work processes. This will cause disruptive shifts in labour markets, in terms of the number and profiles of jobs in industries as well as worker skill requirements. We take a gender perspective and analyse how gender stereotypes and gendered work segregation on the one hand, and digitalisation and automation (as a consequence of AI implementation) on the other hand, are entangled and result in a vicious cycle of digital gender inequality. We provide insights into the gender-specific impact of AI technologies, which is relevant for the mitigation of the potential risk of the creation of social inequality and exclusion. We show that existing empirical evidence already indicates that AI will not increase gender equality but will somewhat further exacerbate the gender inequality in labour markets, ranging from further horizontal and vertical occupational gender segregation to an increase in the gender pay gap. We summarise policy guidance and measures to decrease gender inequality in the future.
Topic:: Inequality, Digital Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Gender, and Work
Political Geography:: Global Focus

618. The impact of artificial intelligence on the nature and quality of jobs

Author:: Laura Nurski and Mia Hoffmann
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Artificial intelligence (AI), like any workplace technology, changes the division of labour in an organisation and the resulting design of jobs. When used as an automation technology, AI changes the bundle of tasks that make up an occupation. In this case, implications for job quality depend on the (re)composition of those tasks. When AI automates management tasks, known as algorithmic management, the consequences extend into workers’ control over their work, with impacts on their autonomy, skill use and workload. We identify four use cases of algorithmic management that impact the design and quality of jobs: algorithmic work-method instructions; algorithmic scheduling of shifts and tasks; algorithmic surveillance, evaluation and discipline; and algorithmic coordination across tasks. Reviewing the existing empirical evidence on automation and algorithmic management shows significant impact on job quality across a wide range of jobs and employment settings. While each AI use case has its own particular effects on job demands and resources, the effects tend to be more negative for the more prescriptive (as opposed to supportive) use cases. These changes in job design demonstrably affect the social and physical environment of work and put pressure on contractual employment conditions as well. As technology development is a product of power in organisations, it replicates existing power dynamics in society. Consequently, disadvantaged groups suffer more of the negative consequences of AI, risking further job-quality polarisation across socioeconomic groups. Meaningful worker participation in the adoption of workplace AI is critical to mitigate the potentially negative effects of AI adoption on workers, and can help achieve fair and transparent AI systems with human oversight. Policymakers should strengthen the role of social partners in the adoption of AI technology to protect workers’ bargaining power.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Inclusion, and Work
Political Geography:: Global Focus

619. A Report to Congress on Sources of and Access to State Death Data

Author:: Brenna Issman
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The National Academy of Public Administration
Abstract:: Data on deaths in America are collected and maintained by state vital records offices (VROs). Yet, these data are vitally important to administering federal programs like the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program, identifying eligible individual survivor benefits, and preventing improper payments to deceased individuals. SSA also shares this death data with qualifying federal and state agencies for programmatic purposes. Because these data are initially collected by VROs, a series of budgetary, information security, and reporting issues arise when the data are used by federal agencies. Most VROs rely heavily on death certificate fees purchased by the public to support vital event activities, including the implementation and maintenance of Electronic Death Registration (EDR) Systems. In accordance with Section 802 of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021, the National Academy of Public Administration (the Academy) conducted a study and prepared a report to Congress on the sources of and access to death data for SSA, identifying unmet needs of federal agencies and developing a set of options for providing federal agencies with limited access to state death data. These options were developed to bolster program integrity, address the need for data privacy and security, and best reflect the efficient and effective roles and responsibilities of federal and state agencies. This study highlights the criticality of the intergovernmental system and two of the Academy’s Grand Challenges in Public Administration - Fostering Social Equity and Ensuring Data Security and Privacy Rights of Individuals. As VROs rely on fees from the public for the majority of their funding, it is important to consider both the economic impact on those who pay for death certificates for recently deceased loved ones and the value of state death data to federal agencies. Increased use of EDR for the collection and transfer of death data from the states to the federal government requires enhanced cybersecurity measures to protect the public against fraud and identity theft. The Academy continues to explore these grand challenges as well as intersections of the federal, state, and local issues through the Center for Intergovernmental Partnerships. I would like to thank the National Association for Public Health Statistics and Information Systems (NAPHSIS), the many VRO officials, and the SSA representatives who provided their time and knowledge to the Study Team and Panel over the last year. I am also deeply appreciative of the work of the Study Team and to the Panel of five Academy Fellows whose expertise and experience guided the development of this report. Their careful analysis and thoughtful insights resulted in evidence-based options for consideration for Congress and SSA that will help improve death data sharing between the states and federal government.
Topic:: Governance, Social Security, Federalism, and Death
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

620. Inventory of data on economic activity and deforestation in the Amazon Basin

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: Multiple factors shape land change and land use patterns in the Amazon Basin.This note aims to identify data sources for two specific phenomena: changes in land cover and GHG emissions. It also considers key economic sectors that accelerate deforestation including livestock and agricultural development. To this end, the focus is on available data sources across three countries with an analysis of their geographic scope, depth of detail, and the frequency and periodicity with which they are reported.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Deforestation
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin

621. Connecting the Dots: Territories and Trajectories of Environmental Crime in the Brazilian Amazon and Beyond

Author:: Laura Trajber Waisbich and Terine Husek
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: A new study by the Igarapé institute analyzing more than 300 Federal Police operations between 2016 and 2021 found that environmental crime in the Amazon region is not only organized but far more than a local problem. Indeed, this vertibable criminal ecosystem behind Amazon plunder has expanded nationwide, reaching 24 of Brazil’s 27 states as well as neighboring nations. According to the study “Connecting the Dots: Territories and Trajectories of Environmental Crime in the Brazilian Amazon and Beyond”, published Wednesday July 20, the federal operations flagged criminal networks in 846 venues across Brazil and the region. This article is the latest in our series “Mapping Environmental Crime in the Amazon Basin.” The police ops focused largely on the nine states comprising Brazil’s Legal Amazon region, where spreading criminal activities took investigators to 197 municipalities, representing 75% of total interventions. Police also targeted environmental crimes in 57 Brazilian municipalities outside the Amazon region, and another eight cities in neighboring countries. The Federal Police interventions were triggered by unchecked deforestation associated with a variety of unlawful economic activities, from outright crimes to nominally licit market activity tainted by crime. These include illegal timber extraction, illicit mining (especially gold), land grabbing and predatory farming and ranching. This criminal network was first explored in Igarapé’s strategic paper, published earlier this year, “The Ecosystem of Environmental Crime in Amazonia: An Analysis of Illicit Economies in the Forest.” The current study takes a deeper dive into the widening criminal nexus that undergirds environmental crimes and related offenses, including illegal money flows, tax evasion, corruption, fraud and criminal violence.
Topic:: Crime, Environment, Law Enforcement, Deforestation, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin

622. Robots, Exports and Top Income Inequality: Evidence for the U.S.

Author:: Andrés César, Guillermo Falcone, and Pablo Garriga
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: The last decades have witnessed a revolution in manufacturing production characterized by increasing technology adoption and a strong expansion of international trade. Simultaneously, the income distribution has exhibited both polarization and concentration among the richest. Combining datasets from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, the International Federation of Robotics, EU KLEMS, and COMTRADE, we study the causal effect of industrial automation on income inequality in the U.S. during 2010–2015. We exploit spatial and time variations in exposure to robots arising from past differences in industry specialization across U.S. metropolitan areas and the evolution of robot adoption across industries. We document a robust positive impact of robotics on income for only the top 1 percent of taxpayers, which is largest for top income fractiles. Therefore, industrial automation fuels income inequality and, particularly, top income inequality. According to our estimates, one more robot per thousand workers results in relative increments of the total taxable income accruing to fractiles P99 to P99.9, P99.9 to P99.99 and P99.99 to P100, of 2.1 percent, 3.5 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively. We also find that robotization leads to increased exports to high-income and upper-middle-income economies, and that this is one of the key mechanisms behind the surge in top income inequality.
Topic:: Income Inequality, Exports, Automation, and Robotics
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

623. Discrimination Against Gay and Transgender People in Latin America: A Correspondence Study in the Rental Housing Market

Author:: Nicolás Abbate, Inés Berniell, Joaquín Coleff, Luis Laguinge, Margarita Machelett, Mariana Marchionni, Julian Pedrazzi, and Maria Florencia Pinto
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We assess the extent of discrimination against gay and transgender individuals in the rental housing markets of four Latin American countries. We conducted a large-scale field experiment building on the correspondence study methodology to examine interactions between property managers and fictitious couples engaged in searches in a major online rental housing platform. We find evidence of discriminatory behavior against heterosexual couples where the female partner is a transgender women (trans couples): they receive 19% fewer responses, 27% fewer positive responses, and 23% fewer invitations to showings than heterosexual couples. However, we find no evidence of discrimination against gay male couples. We also assess whether the evidence is consistent with taste-based discrimination or statistical discrimination models by comparing response rates when couples signal a high socioeconomic status (high SES). While we find no significant effect of the signal on call-back rates or the type of response for high-SES heterosexual or gay male couples, trans couples benefit when they signal a high SES. Their call-back, positive-response, and invitation rates increase by 25%, 36% and 29%, respectively. These results suggest the presence of discrimination against trans couples in the Latin American online rental housing market, which seems consistent with statistical discrimination. Moreover, we find no evidence of heterosexual couples being favoured over gay male couples, nor evidence of statistical discrimination for gay male or heterosexual couples.
Topic:: Discrimination, LGBT+, Housing, Rent, and Transgender
Political Geography:: Latin America

624. The Short-Term Labor Market Impact of Venezuelan Immigration in Peru

Author:: Celia P. Vera and Juan Pablo Jiménez
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: Peru is the second-largest recipient of Venezuelans worldwide. We combine newly available data on Venezuelans living in Peru and the Peruvian Household Survey to assess the impact of Venezuelan migration on natives’ wages and employment. The initial regression analysis exploits the variation in supply shifts across education-experience groups over time. It indicates that immigration in Peru had no adverse impact on native wages. However, the paper highlights that in Peru immigrants and natives with similar education and experience are likely to work in different occupations. The subsequent analysis based on occupational clustering confirms the null effect on wages and indicates that a 20% increase in immigrants decreases formal employment by 6%. We do not find evidence for changes in employment composition toward informality so that migration operates through the extensive margin of employment. We report evidence in favor of immigrants being a close substitute to the least productive natives, suggesting that firms substitute native formal labor for low-cost immigrant informal labor.
Topic:: Education, Immigration, Labor Market, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:: South America, Venezuela, and Peru

625. Intergenerational Mobility of Economic Well-being in Latin America

Author:: Guido Neidhöfer, Matias Ciaschi, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We estimate, for the first time, long-run trends in intergenerational economic mobility for a multitude of countries in Latin America going beyond parent-child correlations in educational attainment. We use several indicators of well-being, such as the socio-economic situation of individuals, job stability, homeownership and assets. Unlike estimates based on education, which mostly show increasing social mobility trends, we find that opportunities to achieve a certain level of economic well-being and climb up the social ladder are rather unequally distributed and have not changed much over time in Latin America.
Topic:: Inequality, Economy, Economic Mobility, and Well-Being
Political Geography:: Latin America

626. Does the Minimum Wage Affect Wage Inequality? A Study for the Six Largest Latin American Economies

Author:: Carlo Lombardo, Lucía Ramírez-Leira, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: Minimum wage (MW) policies are widespread in the developing world and yet their effects are still unclear. In this paper we explore the effect of national MW policies in Latin America’s six largest economies by exploiting the heterogeneity in the bite of the national minimum wage across local labor markets and over time. We find evidence that the MW has a compression effect on the wage distribution of formal workers. The effect was particularly large during the 2000s, a decade of sustained growth and strong labor markets. In contrast, the effect seems to vanish in the 2010s, a decade of much weaker labor markets. We also find suggestive evidence of a lighthouse effect: the MW seems to have an equalizing effect also on the wage distribution of informal workers.
Topic:: Income Inequality, Economy, Labor Market, Minimum Wage, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:: South America and Latin America

627. Going Green: Estimating the Potential of Green Jobs in Argentina

Author:: Natalia Porto, Pablo de la Vega, and Manuela Cerimelo
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper aims to identify and characterize the potential of green jobs in Argentina, i.e., those that would benefit from a transition to a green economy, using occupational green potential scores calculated in US O*NET data. We apply the greenness scores to Argentine household survey data and estimate that 25% of workers are in green jobs, i.e., have a high green potential. However, when taking into account the informality dimension, we find that 15% of workers and 12% of wage earners are in formal green jobs. We then analyze the relationship between the greenness scores (with emphasis on the nexus with decent work) and various labor and demographic variables at the individual level. We find that for the full sample of workers the green potential is relatively greater for men, the elderly, those with very high qualifications, those in formal positions, and those in specific sectors such as construction, transportation, mining, and industry. These are the groups that are likely to be the most benefited by the greening of the Argentine economy. When we restrict the sample to wage earners, the green potential score is positively associated with informality.
Topic:: Labor Market, Green Jobs, and Green Economy
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

628. Cumulative climate shocks and migratory flows: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Salvatore Di Falco, Anna B. Kis, and Martina Viarengo
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: We re-examine the effects of negative weather anomalies during the growing season on the decision to migrate in rural households in five sub-Saharan African countries. To this end we combine a multi-country household panel dataset with high-resolution gridded precipitation data. We find that while the effect of recent adverse weather shocks is on average modest, the cumulative effect of a persistent exposure to droughts over several years leads to a significant increase in the probability to migrate. The results show that more frequent adverse shocks can have more significant and long-lasting consequences in challenging economic environments.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Migration, and Drought
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

629. The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy During the Covid-19 Crisis

Author:: Philipp Heimberger
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper analyses the cyclicality of fiscal policy (discretionary versus automatic) for 28 advanced economies over 1995-2021 by paying special attention to the Covid-19 crisis. We find evidence that discretionary fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis (2020-2021) was significantly more countercyclical than before – in particular in the Eurozone. We do not find comparable evidence for more counter-cyclicality during the financial crisis or Euro crisis, which lends support to the argument that discretionary fiscal policy responded especially forceful to stabilise the economy during the Covid-19 crisis. Furthermore, automatic fiscal stabilisers contributed significantly to counter-cyclical stabilisation, although their performance over 2020-2021 was more in line with the past than for discretionary fiscal policy. Overall, fiscal policy in non-Eurozone advanced countries is more countercyclical than in the Eurozone. However, the cyclicality varies markedly across countries. Our findings shed light on how the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy varies across countries and time.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Crisis Management, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Euro
Political Geography:: Europe

630. Determinants and Effects of Foreign Direct Investment in Austria: Spillovers to Novel Innovative Environmental Technologies

Author:: Mahdi Ghodsi and Branimir Jovanovic
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This study investigates the determinants of FDI in Austria, as well as their spillovers to innovating technologies, productivity, and employment, using firm-level data, for the period 2008-2018. The findings point out that a decrease in the costs of trade increases investment in foreign-owned subsidiaries in Austria, and that FDI is pre-dominantly carried out in industries characterised by greater capital-intensity, higher wages, more agglomeration and regional concentration. Furthermore, FDI is higher in regions with a larger GDP and with a larger share of the population with upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education. The study also finds that there are positive spillovers of FDI to the domestic economy, which are strongest and most positive for innovative activities in environmental technologies. In other words, FDI helps Austrian firms to become more innovative in major environmental technologies. Such innovative efforts are best supported at the firm-level by supporting the total assets and investment of domestic firms, and at the regional level by increasing the share of the population with higher levels of education and employing more R&D personnel. The active presence of innovative foreign MNEs that enjoy extensive technological capacities, high-skilled labour, experienced management, and large-scale resources are also conducive to innovative activities.
Topic:: Environment, Science and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe and Austria

631. Demography, Capital Accumulation and Growth

Author:: Robert Stehrer and Maryna Tverdostup
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: Europe will be challenged by demographic changes over the next few decades, even under favourable assumptions about fertility and migration, but the economic eﬀects are not yet fully understood. This paper studies the eﬀects of population ageing on economic growth, capital deepening and robotisation in 27 European Union (EU) labour markets. First, we econometrically assess the eﬀects of ageing and potential labour market shortages on growth. Second, we test the hypothesis of whether ageing leads to faster adoption of new technologies. We distinguish between various capital asset types, including non-ICT and ICT capital, tangible and intangible capital and the adoption of robots. The analysis is based on Eurostat, the European Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS) and International Federation of Robotics (IFR) data. Results indicate that ageing and demographic changes might contribute to secular stagnation, which decelerates the adoption of new technologies.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Aging, Labor Market, and Capital Accumulation
Political Geography:: Europe

632. Why Most Communities in Zimbabwe Are Embracing the Right2SayNo

Author:: Farai Maguwu
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: A new scramble for Africa’s natural resources is leaving communities more impoverished, oppressed, and traumatized. Enriching the ruling elites and mul- tinational corporations, the withdrawal of natural resources from the Earth con- tributes to land and water grabs, violence, intimidation, desecration of cultural heritage sites, pollution of water sources, and poverty in communities hosting natural resources. Whereas exploitation of natural resources is expected to boost local economies and improve livelihoods, the lived realities of host communities in Zimbabwe demonstrate that living standards decline when natural resource extraction occurs. There is often trading of accusations between government and extractive industries on the problem of whose responsibility it is to develop resource-rich communities. Corruption and a rent-seeking culture have weakened governance, leading to social stratification, class formations, and entrenched autocratic rule. Access to resource rents is also turning the focus of government away from other more sustainable sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism. This paradox of plenty, also known as the resource curse, confirms the long-held view that countries with abundant natural resource reserves are prone to poverty, confliict, and poor governance. In these countries, natural resources are sometimes used to finance violence, repression, and rigged elections.
Topic:: Corruption, Natural Resources, Elites, Value Extraction, and Rent-seeking
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

633. The Artemis Theory of Warfare

Author:: Mark J. Sundahl
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Outer space, long the province of peaceful competition and international cooperation, is being rapidly militarized. We stand today at a rare in8ection point in history that deserves careful thought as humanity moves forward. In short, we face the following choice: we can either protect and build on the special nature of space norms and customs to preserve space as a “laboratory of peace,” or we can militarize space as the new “highest ground” under largely the same rules that govern terrestrial warfare.1 4e sad reality is that our history, being inextricably linked to warfare, predicts that the dream of a peaceful future in space will almost certainly remain just that—a dream. 4at said, if you point out a problem, you should always propose a solution. I will propose a solution to the threat of warfare in space at the end of this article. But, before we get there, I will take a step back and explain some of the assertions above. Why do I call space a “laboratory of peace?” And why is this special status of outer space in jeopardy?
Topic:: International Cooperation, Space, Military, and New Generation Warfare
Political Geography:: Global Focus

634. Criminal Groups and a Decade of Displacement in Central America and Mexico

Author:: David James Cantor
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Organized criminal groups in the North of Central America and Mexico (NCAM) make global news headlines. 3e bloody reputation of drug tra4cking structures from Mexico during the past decade rivals the global infamy of Colom- bian groups such as the Medellín and Cali cartels during the 1980s and 1990s. Brutal gangs in the North of Central America (NCA)—formed by the countries of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala—have even served as a bogey-man in presidential campaigns in the United States during the 2010s.1 But what about the predicament of the people living in the zones to which organized criminal groups lay claim? Much has been written about the levels of violence to which these populations are exposed; however, what is less understood, even today, is how the aggressive activities of organized criminal groups have produced waves of internal and external displacement and the implications of this displacement for the global community. 3is paper draws on research conducted by the author over the past decade to re5ect on the crisis of forced displacement that has a6ected these populations in the NCAM during the 2010s. 3e paper analyzes statistical data concern- ing refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to o6er observations on the scale of displacement within the NCAM and across borders; the diverse organized criminal groups that generate di6erent but overlapping dynamics of displacement; and the response in law and policy to this displacement within these countries and in the Americas more generally. Finally, this paper ends by arguing that the displacement in the NCAM has important implications not only for those countries but for the Americas and at the global level, as well.
Topic:: Crime, Trafficking, Displacement, and Cartels
Political Geography:: Central America, North America, and Mexico

635. The Syrian Popular Uprising and the Decline of the Druze Political Role

Author:: Yusri Khaizran
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In the second issue of al-Durziyya: Druze and Other Minorities in the Middle East, Dr. Yusri Khaizaran analyzes the position of the Druze in the Syrian Civil War between the Regime's forcefulness and the danger of radical Islam. The Druze in Syria have reached the acknowledgment that, for the first time in modern times, they face an existential threat. Al-Durziyya is a digital magazine co-published by the Druze Heritage Center and the Moshe Dayan Center in Hebrew and English. Al-Durziyya provides different perspectives on the social, cultural, and historical affairs of the Druze in the Middle East.
Topic:: Minorities, Syrian War, Islamism, and Druze
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Syria

636. Life, Death, and Beyond: The Belief in Reincarnation and the Phenomenon of Notq in the Druze Community

Author:: Maha Natoor
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In the first issue of our new magazine al-Durziyya, Dr. Maha Natoor deals with the belief in reincarnation among the Druze and examines the phenomenon of notq, the remembering and talking about a previous life, as a mechanism which embodies the Druze identity and contributes to the preservation and definition of its boundaries. Al-Durziyya is a digital magazine co-published by the Druze Heritage Center and the Moshe Dayan Center, in Hebrew and English. Al-Durziyya provides different perspectives on the social, cultural and historical affairs of the Druze in the Middle East.
Topic:: Religion, Druze, and Reincarnation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

637. The 2023 Elections: Legitimization of the New Türkiye

Author:: Christos Teazis
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Christos Teazis reveals the gradual transformation of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) into a state party by examining the modus operandi of the state founder Republican People's Party (CHP).
Topic:: History, Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and AKP
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

638. China’s Infrastructure Projects in the Middle East: Lessons from China’s Engagement Elsewhere

Author:: Dominika Urhová
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Iqtisadi, Ms. Dominika Urhova discusses the economic strategy and role of China in the Middle East, and analyzes the implications of China's growing influence in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and Asia

639. Russia Steps up its Campaign for Influence in Africa

Author:: Rina Bassist
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist discusses Russian propaganda and paramilitary strategies used to gain influence in recent years in various countries in Africa, particularly in the Sahel region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Propaganda, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Sahel, and Central African Republic

640. Summary of the 25th Knesset election results in Arab society

Author:: Arik Rudnitzky
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: The current issue of Bayan is being published about one month after the 25th Knesset elections which were held on November 1st, 2022. In his article, Dr. Arik Rudnitzky summarizes the election results in the Arab sector, and their future implications for Arab politics in Israel.
Topic:: Minorities, Elections, Domestic Politics, Knesset, Palestinians, and Arabs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

641. On the brink of Subsequent Sanctions Against Russia Implications for Azerbaijan

Author:: Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: In response to Russia’s continuing war against Ukraine and the scope of the current escalation against humanity and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, the European Council adopts the ninth package of new sanctions targeted to step up the existing pressure on Russia and its government. Since March 2014, the EU has progressively imposed prohibitive measures on Russia in this vein including individual sanctions, economic sanctions including energy, transport, and diplomatic sanctions of which multidimensional backgrounds are attributed to the illegal annexation of Crimea, Russia’s military attack on Ukraine and illegal annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in the current year.
Topic:: Sanctions, European Union, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

642. Unequivocal benefits of, and necessity for, stronger Turkic Union

Author:: Emin Mammadov and Kamran Ismayilov
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: In recent years, the cooperation and unity of the Turkic countries gain increasing momentum which are being demonstrated by its viability leading to the emergence of a united Turkic World as a new geopolitical reality in the Euroasian region. The cooperation deeply embedded in historical brotherhood ties, common language root, cultural and traditional commonalities has revealed significant political and economic results in the continent.
Topic:: Culture, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, and Turkic People
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Caucasus

643. The Subsequent Return to Sochi Platform: New Opportunities for Sustainable Peace in the South Caucasus

Author:: Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: Following the Russian-broken peace deal in November 10, 2020, in a way towards the sustainability of peace building process and peace situation in the South Caucasus along with the newly emerging politically and economically viable opportunities, the process has been drawing the attention of regional and international stakeholders with multidirectional views and varying degrees of contribution. In the aftermath of Prague meeting on the heels of recent escalations along the Armenia and Azerbaijani border, which revealed to be another willing step by the EU in this vein though French President’s biased approach has been reiterated, activism from the side of Russian media is being observed and the return to Sochi Platform with the mediation the President of the Russian Federation in the trilateral meeting with the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan and with the Prime Minister of Republic of Armenia was held in the city of Sochi on October 31 which is considered of exceptional importance to ensure the implementation of the agreements of 9 November 2020, 11 January and 26 November 2021..
Topic:: Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Negotiation, Peace, Sustainability, and Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Political Geography:: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

644. EU-Azerbaijan Economic Relations: New Perspectives and Targets

Author:: CESD Research Team
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: The study is an example of the series on issues analyzing the EU-Azerbaijan economic relations which can be considered a step forward to empower economic approach in the policy-making process aiming to provide an alternative view in addressing current challenges and developments in Azerbaijan. The European Union’s relations with Azerbaijan have been formulated based on the EU-Azerbaijan Partnership and Cooperation Agreement which entered into force since 1999. In February 2017, the EU and Azerbaijan began negotiations on a new framework agreement designed to enhance the political dialogue, trade and mutually beneficial cooperation covering a wide range of economic aspects. One of the most important strategies of EU in the energy policy is to ensure energy security through diversification of energy routes. Azerbaijan is a strategically important energy partner for the EU and plays a significant role in bringing Caspian energy resources to the EU market. In 2018, the EU and Azerbaijan endorsed joint Partnership Priorities, along the four Eastern Partnership priorities that accompany the political dialogue and economic cooperation….
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

645. Rethinking Military Responses to Terrorism and Insurgency in Nigeria

Author:: Maurice Ogbonnaya
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: Since 2003, terrorist insurgency in Nigeria has occasioned complex security and humanitarian crises, especially in the northeast region of the country. Boko Haram, a radical Islamist group from the region, has killed over 30,000 people and caused the displacement of more than 3 million others within the Lake Chad Basin region. Military responses by the Nigerian state and in collaboration with multilateral security agencies have achieved limited success. This paper not only questions the adequacy of military responses to terrorism, as a standalone approach, but it also advances the argument in the extant literature on the obsolescence of excessive militarization of counterterrorism operations as a security management strategy. It suggests the adoption of a more comprehensive and broad-based strategic approach. This is predicated on the limitations of purely military operations in counterterrorism, noting that military responses alone are structurally not designed to deal with the fundamental root causes of terrorism. In this regard, the paper advocates for a combination of military and other non-military counterterrorism approaches that seek to address the fundamental factors that give rise to terrorism.
Topic:: Terrorism, Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, Economic Inequality, and Exclusion
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

646. World Economy Winter 2022: Strong headwinds for global economic activity

Author:: Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Stefan Kooths, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Jan Reents, and Nils Sonnenberg
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Global growth has decelerated over the course of the year under the impact of high energy prices and great uncertainty. Monetary policy, which is being tightened very quickly in view of high inflationary pressure across the board, is now also putting a drag on economic activity. Overall, production remained on an upward trend into the fall, with impetus coming from easing supply bottlenecks and the continuing normalization of activity in those sectors of the economy particularly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Towards the end of the year, however, economic momentum weakened noticeably further. The major advanced economies in particular are currently facing a period of weak economic activity despite considerable fiscal support measures. At the same time, the problems for the Chinese economy remain significant. While global output (measured on a purchasing power parity basis) at 3.2 percent is expected to grow by 0.3 percentage points more this year than expected in September, we continue to forecast an increase of only 2.2 percent next year. For 2024, our expectation has even been reduced slightly to 3.2 percent, mainly because we do expect the US economy to recover slowly. Inflation is likely to have peaked and is expected to slow significantly over the forecast horizon thanks to lower commodity prices and easing economic tensions. However, underlying inflation is not likely to return to target levels until the end of the forecast period.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Economy, Business, COVID-19, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

647. German Economy Winter 2022: Inching through the energy crisis

Author:: Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Dominik Groll, Nils Sonnenberg, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Vincent Stamer, and Timo Hoffmann
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Wholesale prices for gas and electricity have fallen significantly in recent months - even though they are still at a high level. In addition, the burdens on private households and companies caused by high energy costs are to be cushioned by so-called price brakes. Overall, inflation in 2023 will be much lower at 5.4 percent than we had expected in our autumn forecast (8.7 percent). Although real disposable income and, as a result, private consumption are likely to decrease next year, the decline will be much smaller than had been expected a few months ago. As a result, we now expect a slight increase in GDP of 0.3 percent for 2023 (autumn: -0.7 percent). In 2024, GDP is expected to grow somewhat more strongly again at 1.3 percent (autumn: 1.7 percent). The labour market is robust despite the economic slowdown, partly because companies are still desperately seeking skilled workers. The public fiscal balance is likely to deteriorate significantly in 2023 due to the aid packages in response to the energy crisis and displays a deficit of around 4 percent relative to GDP. With the expiry of the aid packages, the deficit will decrease again in 2024.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Budget, Business, Labor Market, Energy Crisis, Emerging Economies, and Advanced Economies
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

648. World Economy Autumn 2022: Global growth falters

Author:: Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Stefan Kooths, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Jan Reents, and Nils Sonnenberg
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: In spring 2022, world economic growth came to a standstill amid high inflation, persistent supply bottlenecks and elevated uncertainty. In many countries real wages are declining significantly dampening private consumption even though extra savings accumulated during the pandemic are still available to mitigate the adverse impact to some extent. At the same time financial conditions have also deteriorated as central banks tightened their policies. In China, the strict zero-covid policy and problems in the real estate sector are slowing economic activity. Against this backdrop, the outlook for the global economy has deteriorated further. We have, again, lowered our forecast and are now expecting global output to increase by only 2.9 percent this year and 2.2 percent next year (calculated on a purchasing power parity basis). The forecast assumes that commodity prices will gradually decline in line with forward prices, which will over time reduce the upward pressure on prices and provides the foundations for an economic upturn in 2024. However, the pass-through of higher commodity prices into consumer prices is probably not yet complete and wage increases are likely to intensify in many countries. Consequently, underlying inflation is likely to remain higher than in the years before the Covid crisis and remain above central bank targets over the forecast horizon.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Business, COVID-19, Zero-COVID, Emerging Economies, and Advanced Economies
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

649. A lockdown a day keeps the doctor away: The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the Covid-19 pandemic

Author:: Anthonin Levelu and Alexander Sandkamp
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Countries have employed a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in order to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the success of individual measures in reducing the number of infections remains controversial. This paper exploits a panel data set of 107 countries to estimate the effects of 14 NPIs on the spread of the disease. While almost all measures had a dampening effect on the reproduction rate of the virus, public information campaigns and school closings were most effective, followed by testing policies, contact tracing and international travel restrictions. Public event cancellation and school closings were less effective during the second wave of the pandemic, while public information campaigns and the obligation to wear masks worked better. Several NPIs had a stronger impact on infections in autocratic countries, while others were less effective.
Topic:: Health, Economy, Public Policy, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

650. Economic Zones and Local Income Inequality: Evidence from Indonesia

Author:: Cecília Hornok and Sidan Raeskyesa
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Economic zones can be powerful drivers of economic growth in developing countries. However, less is known about their distributional impact on the local society. This paper provides empirical evidence from Indonesian provinces on the relationship between economic zones and within-province income inequality. Estimates from panel regressions and synthetic control case studies suggest that this relationship is positive overall. The estimated rise in income inequality after a zone opens is relatively small on average and may be short-lived. However, the average estimate masks large regional differences, which suggests that the inequality implications of economic zone policies depend on local conditions. One explanation for the rise in inequality is that the unskilled population benefits disproportionately less from the policy. As a remedy, we propose education and training programs that target the poor and unskilled and in which companies also actively participate.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Economic Growth, and Income Distribution
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

651. International Managerial Skill and Big Colombian Exporting Firms’ Performance, 2006-2014

Author:: Federico Merchan
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper uses a sample of the biggest private Colombian exporting firms to propose and estimate a two-step methodology for measuring international managerial skill and calculating its impact on firm performance. The first step quantifies the manager’s organizational capital contribution to improvements in Bloom et al.’s (2021) production efficiency (ability to assemble inputs into final goods) and/or quality capacity (skill to make high quality goods) mechanisms, through the median of export unit value regression residuals at firm-year level (multiplying by -1 the price competition products’ residuals). The second step is regression analysis of firm performance. Results indicate that: i) international managerial quality has a significant and robust positive effect on total export value via the intensive margin, ii) exported value elasticity relative to international managerial quality is around 3 times larger than exported value elasticity relative to exogenous global demand shocks, and iii) better managers in the international market do not necessarily upgrade export quality.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Exports, Management, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

652. Country, Culture or Competition - What Drives Attitudes Towards Immigrants in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Author:: Malte Becker, Ralf Krüger, and Tobias Heidland
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Sub-Saharan Africa is becoming an increasingly important destination for international migration. The region hosts immigrants from other African countries and from other parts of the world, such as China. Given high poverty levels and weak social security systems in Sub-Saharan Africa, host populations might fear increasing competition for resources and labor, potentially resulting in negative attitudes towards immigrants. We provide the first systematic study of attitudes towards immigrants in Sub-Saharan African countries that uses a causal framework. Using a survey experiment in Uganda and Senegal, we study both attitudes towards immigrants in general and towards specific immigrant groups. In particular, we focus on Chinese immigrants, whose increasing presence in Africa is seen by many as the most important contemporary geopolitical shift involving the continent. We find that attitudes towards immigrants are mainly driven by sociotropic cultural and sociotropic economic concerns. Furthermore, immigrants from China are perceived less positively and economically more threatening than immigrants in general.
Topic:: Development, Migration, Immigration, Sustainability, and Attitudes
Political Geography:: Africa and China

653. Bilateral trade and conflict heterogeneity

Author:: Katrin Kamin
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Although the number of interstate disputes has fallen in the past 30 years, rising geopolitical competition is challenging the foundation of the absence of great power war. Additionally, the number of internal conflicts is surging. At the same time, globalisation has spun a net of global trade connections and has thus created dependencies, making everyone more vulnerable to the repercussions of conflict. In this context, this paper analyses the relationship between trade and conflict from a trade perspective: Using data from UCDP and COMTRADE this paper studies the effects of five different conflict types on international trade flows in the period 1992 - 2011, including interstate and internal conflicts as well as other types of violence.Applying the gravity equation of international trade and the ppml high-dimensional fixed effects estimator, this paper finds that the heterogeneity of conflict types and their distinct characteristics matter for the magnitude and direction of their influence on trade.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Conflict, and Trade
Political Geography:: Global Focus

654. Does ethnic heterogeneity decrease workers’ effort in the presence of income redistribution? An experimental analysis

Author:: Christoph Schütt, David Pipke, Lena Detlefsen, and Gianluca Grimalda
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Ethnic discrimination is ubiquitous, and it has been shown to exert adverse effects on income redistribution. The reason is that a country’s ethnic majority, if richer than the average, may be unwilling to transfer resources to the country’s ethnic minorities if poorer than the average. A yet untested mechanism is that a country’s ethnic majority may reduce their work effort knowing that their income will finance redistribution to ethnic minorities. We test for this mechanism experimentally in triadic interactions. A German citizen acting as a worker is randomly matched with a recipient who can be another German, an economic migrant, or an asylum seeker in Germany. Workers know that another German citizen may transfer part of their earnings to the recipient. The recipient does not exert any work effort. Even if the recipient’s identity does not affect effort in the aggregate, social identity strongly moderates this relationship. Participants with a strong German identity, i.e., who report feeling close to other Germans, exert significantly less effort than other participants if the recipient is an asylum seeker. They also exert more effort when matched with a German recipient than an asylum seeker, while participants with a less strong German identity do the opposite. Moreover, participants with a strong German identity exert slightly more effort when matched with economic migrants than with asylum seekers, while others tend to do the opposite, albeit statistically insignificantly. Workers’ beliefs over the third party’s redistribution rate do not mediate such results and are generally inaccurate.
Topic:: Economics, Discrimination, Tax Systems, Labor Market, Redistribution, and Welfare State
Political Geography:: Global Focus

655. Carbon dioxide removal in a global analytical climate economy

Author:: Martin Quaas, Felix Meier, Wilfried Rickels, and Christian Traeger
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Net-zero climate policies foresee deployment of atmospheric carbon dioxide removal wit geo-logical, terrestrial, or marine carbon storage. While terrestrial and geological storage would be governed under the framework of national property rights, marine storage implies that carbon is transferred from one global common, the atmosphere, to another global common, the ocean, in particular if storage exceeds beyond coastal applications. This paper investigates the option of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and storage in different (marine) reservoir types in an analytic climate-economy model, and derives implications for optimal mitigation efforts and CDR deployment. We show that the introduction of CDR lowers net energy input and net emis-sions over the entire time path. Furthermore, CDR affects the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) via changes in total economic output but leaves the analytic structure of the SCC unchanged. In the first years after CDR becomes available the SCC is lower and in later years it is higher com-pared to a standard climate-economy model. Carbon dioxide emissions are first higher and then lower relative to a world without CDR. The paper provides the basis for the analysis of decentralized and potentially non-cooperative CDR policies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economy, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

656. Why do Preferences for Redistribution Differ Across Countries?

Author:: Gianluca Grimalda, Francesco Farina, Anna Conte, and Ulrich Schmidt
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We test for different theories purporting to explain cross-country differences in income redistribution through standardized experimental choices. US Americans and Italians demand less redistribution than Norwegians and Germans, regardless of whether self-interest is relevant. Those earning (or expecting to earn) below-median incomes behave as "libertarians" more frequently in the US and Italy than in Germany and Norway. Above-the-median earners behave similarly across countries. Higher overconfidence by US Americans and Italians further reduces their demand for redistribution under uncertainty. The "Prospect of Upward Mobility" hypothesis holds similarly in all countries. US Americans do not reward individual merit more than others.
Topic:: Economic Mobility, Redistribution, Income Distribution, and Behavioral Economics
Political Geography:: Europe, Italy, North America, and United States of America

657. Regional Deprivation and Populism - Evidence from Germany and the U.S.

Author:: Michael Bayerlein
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: A widely held view is that increasing globalisation and inequality are fostering support for populist actors. Surprisingly, when focusing on Germany and the U.S., populist voting is highest in less globalised regions with rather equal income distributions. Addressing this puzzle, I ask how the regional variance in populist voting can be explained. In my answer, I introduce the concept of spatial inequality, which describes the regional inequality within countries, and construct a measure of public goods scarcity. I argue that the spatial inequality induced feeling of being left behind is positively correlated with populist voting and that this effect is mitigated by public goods provision. Using county level data to develop spatial inequality and public good scarcity indices, I can provide empirical support for these arguments. The findings have important implications for understanding the sub-national variance in populist voting and the role of relative economic deprivation as well as public goods provision.
Topic:: Globalization, Inequality, Populism, Voting, Regional Economy, and Public Goods
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

658. Tracking Chinese Aid through China Customs: Darlings and Orphans after the COVID-19 Outbreak

Author:: Andreas Fuchs, Lennart Kaplan, Krisztina Kis-Katos, Sebastian Schmidt, Felix Turbanisch, and Feicheng Wang
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, China's mask and vaccine diplomacy have been widely discussed, but the debate relies on a few stylized data points. This article introduces a systematic way to measure China's foreign aid in almost real-time through official customs records of exported aid goods. Our results show significant shifts in China's aid after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, medical aid skyrocketed after the outbreak. It was initially dominated by face masks and other protective equipment and later by vaccines. This came at the expense of non-medical aid, which was 16.3 percent below its pre-pandemic level. Second, China's aid became global, clearly extending beyond the Global South. Third, in the aftermath of the initial outbreak in March 2020, China's aid became less responsive to both recipient need and political friendship, which can be mainly attributed to the rise of aid through non-government sources. However, in the vaccine diplomacy period of 2021, economic needs and political factors have regained their original importance.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, Public Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

659. The impact of trade and trade policy on the environment and the climate: A review

Author:: Gabriel Felbermayr and Sonja Peterson
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: While international trade can offer gains from specialization and access to a wider range of products, it is also closely interlinked with global environmental problems, above all, anthropogenic climate change. This survey provides a structured overview of the economic literature on the interaction between environmental outcomes, trade, environmental policy and trade policy. In this endeavor, it covers approaches reaching from descriptive data analysis based on Input‐Output tables, over quantitative trade models and econometric studies to game‐theoretic analyses. Addressed issues are in particular the emission content of trade and emissions along value chains, the relocation of dirty firms and environmental impacts abroad, impacts of specific trade polices (such as trade agreements or tariffs) or environmental policy (such as Border Carbon Adjustment), transportation emissions, as well as the role of firms. Across the different topics covered, the paper also tries to identify avenues for future research, with a particular focus on extending quantitative trade and environment models.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Trade, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

660. Understanding differences in attitudes to immigration: a meta-analysis of individual-level factors

Author:: Lenka Dražanová, Jérôme Gonnot, Tobias Heidland, and Ralf Krüger
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Public attitudes toward immigration have attracted much scholarly interest and extensive empirical research in recent years. Despite a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature, no firm conclusions have been drawn regarding the factors affecting immigration opinion. We address this gap through a formal meta-analysis derived from the literature regarding immigration attitudes from the top journals of several social science disciplines in the years 2009-2019 and based on a population of 1185 estimates derived from 144 unique analyses on individual-level factors affecting attitudes to immigration. The meta-analytical findings show that two individual-level characteristics are most significantly associated with attitudes to immigration - education (positively) and age (negatively). Our results further reveal that the same individual characteristics do not necessarily explain immigration policy attitudes and attitudes towards immigrants' contribution. The findings challenge several conventional micro-level theories of attitudes to immigration. The meta-analysis can inform future research when planning the set of explanatory variables to avoid omitting key determinants.
Topic:: Globalization, Migration, Immigration, Public Opinion, and Attitudes
Political Geography:: Global Focus

661. Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes

Author:: Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, and Joschka Wanner
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition set-ups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanction-senders and target; (ii) compare prospective coalition partners and; (iii) provide bounds for the sanctions potential — the maximum welfare change attainable — when sanctions are scaled vertically, i.e. across sectors up to an embargo, or horizontally, i.e. across countries up to a global regime. To gauge the significance of simulation outcomes, we implement a Bayesian bootstrap procedure that generates confidence bands. We find that the implemented measures against Iran and Russia inflicted considerable economic harm, yielding 32 – 37% of the vertical sanctions potential. Our key finding is that coalitions lower the average welfare loss incurred from sanctions relative to unilateral implementation. They also increase the welfare loss imposed on Iran and Russia. Adding China to the coalition further amplifies the welfare loss by 79% for Iran and 22% for Russia. Finally, we quantify transfers that would equalize losses across coalition members. These hypothetical transfers can be seen as a sanctions-equivalent of NATO spending goals and provide a measure of the relative burden borne by coalition countries.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Sanctions, Alliance, and Embargo
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

662. The Consequences of Unilateral Withdrawals from the Paris Agreement

Author:: Mario Larch and Joschka Wanner
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: International cooperation is at the core of multilateral climate policy. How is its effectiveness harmed by individual countries dropping out of the global mitigation effort? We develop a multisector structural trade model with emissions from production and a constant elasticity of fossil fuel supply function to simulate the consequences of unilateral withdrawals from the Paris Agreement. Taking into account both direct and leakage effects, we őnd that a US withdrawal would eliminate more than a third of the world emissions reduction (31.8% direct effect and 6.4% leakage effect), while a potential Chinese withdrawal lowers the world emission reduction by 24.1% (11.9% direct effect and 12.2% leakage effect). The substantial leakage is primarily driven by technique effects induced by falling international fossil fuel prices.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

663. Africa's Great Moderation

Author:: Sebastian Krantz
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Over the past 30 years (1990-2019), African economies have experienced remarkable improvements in macroeconomic conditions, characterized by higher and more stable real per-capita growth rates, and lower and more stable inflation. This paper documents the persistent decline in macroeconomic volatility at the aggregate and sectoral levels, and seeks to provide explanations. Sectoral analysis shows a particularly strong reduction of growth volatility in agriculture, and, to a lesser extent, in services. Analysis of a broad range of explanatory factors yields that only a small fraction of the moderation can be explained by structural change, and changes in major structural characteristics such as institutions, trade intensity and diversification, natural resource dependence, or conflict incidence. Evidence suggests that changes in the external environment, improved macroeconomic policy frameworks, and ’softer’ structural improvements such as the deepening of the financial sector and increases in human capital, were important towards reducing volatility on the continent.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Institutions, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Resilience, and Volatility
Political Geography:: Africa

664. Picture This: Social Distance and the Mistreatment of Migrant Workers

Author:: Toman Barsbai, Vojtech Bartos, Victoria Licuanan, Andreas Steinmayr, Erwin Tiongson, and Dean Yang
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We experimentally study an intervention to reduce mistreatment of Filipino over?seas domestic workers (DWs) by their employers. Encouraging DWs to show their employers a family photo while providing a small gift when starting employment reduced DW mistreatment, increased their job satisfaction, and increased the likeli?hood of contract extension. While generally unaware of the intervention, DWs’ fam?ilies staying behind become more positive about international labor migration. An online experiment with potential employers suggests that the effect operates through a reduction in employers’ perceived social distance from their employees.
Topic:: Migration, Labor Issues, Labor Market, Migrant Workers, and Contracts
Political Geography:: Philippines and Global Focus

665. How to make I.T. in Greek Manufacturing: Evidence and Policy Recommendations

Author:: Sofia Anyfantaki
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Greece has so far failed to shift its production structure towards more complex, high value-added activities, incorporating knowledge-intensive practices. Given the country’s low performance in innovation and knowledge diffusion relative to EU peers, we focus on two specific problem areas of Greek industry: skills and management practices. First, we provide an in-depth look at skills indicators to identify the scope for action, particularly in addressing mismatch. Second, we use firm-level data from the World Management Survey to give an overview of management practices in Greek industry and explore the quality of these practices and their association with productivity. We have two novel findings: first, we document that Greece has the highest overskilling for professional occupations in the OECD; second, we show that Greek firms do best in areas requiring unitary decision making, and worst in areas requiring teamwork and synergies. We complement our analysis with data from a new survey and examine structural characteristics of innovation and technology adoption. The collection of our empirical findings provides valuable input into concrete policy proposals to increase productivity in Greek manufacturing.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Manufacturing, Innovation, Industry, and Information Technology
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

666. Turkey’s 2023 Election: Which Candidates Can Defeat Erdoğan at the Polls?

Author:: İştar Gözaydın and Ahmet Erdi Öztürk
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Turkey will go to the polls at the latest in June 2023 to elect both the President and the parliament. These elections could bring to an end the period in which the AKP has ruled by means of various unofficial coalitions. The 2019 municipal elections also showed that it was possible for the opposition to defeat authoritarian regimes through elections, thereby showing voters how essential it was for them to join forces. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seems to be playing all his cards to win this election, which should come as no surprise, given that he is both a shrewd politician and an ‘election machine’. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has advantages, but also disadvantages that put him in the weakest position of all the current candidates. This has been confirmed by multiple polls. Ekrem Imamoglu’s judicial conviction on 14 December 2022, and the fact that this verdict paves the way for his ban from politics, has completely changed his candidacy case. Mansur Yavaş’s nationalist background, and the fact that he still uses former MHP cadres in the staff of the municipality, may cause the Kurdish political movement to maintain distance from him if he is a candidate. Turkey’s 2023 election depends on what the οpposition does to anticipate the moves Erdoğan makes to stay in power.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Opposition
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

667. Child Sexual Abuse in Botswana: An Evaluation of The Effectiveness of Child Protection Institutions in selected villages

Author:: Thabile A. Samboma
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:: Child Sexual Abuse (CSA) in Botswana is a big social problem with proven lifelong effects on the victims. Botswana has established various child protection institutions (CPI) and amended children’s protection laws to ensure that children are safe from all harm. However, despite this development, Botswana CSA cases are still rising. This study provides the first attempt to evaluate the effectiveness of child protection institutions in Botswana. A case study method was used in Old Naledi and Letlhakeng through an indepth interview with twenty-two (22) participants. The findings of the study revealed that there is;(i) the absence of a national child strategy, (ii) poor coordination of child protection institutions, (iii) weak child legislation framework, (iv) lack of capacity, (v) inadequately financed child protection, (vi) lack of systematic data collection, (vii) lack of evidence-based research, (viii) Decline of family structure and (iv) lack of public awareness. All these combined hinder the effectiveness of child protection institutions in Botswana. The study recommends as follows: reviewing the Children’s Act of 2009, developing a national child protection strategy, strengthening coordination of CPI, increasing resource allocation, creating a centralised database on CSA and strengthening evidence-based research on CSA in Botswana.
Topic:: Children, Institutions, Protection, and Child Sexual Abuse (CSA)
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

668. International Democracy Promotion in Times of Autocratization: From Supporting to Protecting Democracy

Author:: Julia Leininger
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The worldwide wave of autocratization is doing away with many of the democratic achievements made since 1989. Scholarship on international democracy promotion is yet to theorise how democracy can be protected from autocratization. Such a theory must account for different democratic and autocratic trajectories as well as integrate theoretical approaches from international relations and comparative politics in the study of democracy promotion. However, such a combined perspective is still missing. One reason for this is that the field lacks a clear concept of “protection” and does not yet systematically integrate evidence from democratization research. This paper addresses this research gap. It is the first attempt to develop a concept theory of democracy promotion, which includes support and protection of democracy. Coupling this with a depiction of six phases of regime change, this paper makes a second contribution: based on the proposed conceptual and theoretical integration, it generates a series of testable anchor points for further empirical analysis on what strategies are most likely to be effective during the various phases of regime change.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, Regime Change, Democracy, and Autocracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

669. Policy Responses to COVID-19: Why Social Cohesion and Social Protection Matter in Africa

Author:: Julia Leininger, Armin von Schiller, Christoph Strupat, and Daniele Malerba
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This empirical analysis investigates whether and to what extent social cohesion and the coverage of social protection schemes influence governments’ decisions about the stringency of COVID-19 containment policies during the first and second waves in 2020 in Africa. Our results indicate that societal and social factors influenced the stringency of containment policies. Social cohesion has a negative effect on the stringency of containment policies in response to COVID-19 over time. Social protection coverage has a positive effect on the stringency of containment policies in response to COVID-19 over time. States implemented more stringent containment policies in less cohesive societies if they already had social protection schemes in place before the pandemic. Contextual factors mediated these effects. While stringency of containment policies softened over time where levels of democracy, poverty, and inequality were higher, social protection made a mediating difference only in autocratic states and societies with higher poverty. Three contributions of the empirical analysis stand out. First, the conceptual integration of societal and social factors (“societal triangle”) provides a novel basis from which to analyse policy responses during external shocks like a global pandemic. Second, to overcome the limitations of current measurements of social cohesion, we use a novel measurement to determine pre-pandemic levels of social cohesion. Third, this is the first cross-national study that addresses a world region, Africa, which has gained little attention in the study of policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Topic:: Public Health, Social Cohesion, COVID-19, and Protection
Political Geography:: Africa

670. The Effects of a Private-Sector-Driven Smallholder Support Programme on Productivity, Market Participation and Food and Nutrition Security: Evidence of a Nucleus-Outgrower Scheme from Zambia

Author:: Tekalign Gutu Sakketa, Raoul Herrmann, Chewe Nkonde, Mwelwa Lukonde, and Michael Brüntrup
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Nucleus-outgrower schemes (NOSs) are supposed to be a particularly effective private-sector mechanism to support smallholder farmers and contribute towards mitigating the problematic aspects of pure large-scale agricultural investments. This discussion paper uses panel household survey data collected in two rounds in Zambia to analyse some agro-ecological and socio-economic impacts of the outgrower programme of one of the largest agricultural investments in Zambia: Amatheon Agri Zambia (AAZ) Limited. The descriptive results show that the type of participation in the programme varies across participants and components, with most participating in trainings. Econometric results suggest the following key findings. First, although the overall impact of the AAZ outgrower programme on the uptake of conservation agriculture practices is robust and promising, impacts on the adoption of other agricultural technologies is less obvious and the effect depends on the type of support provided. Second, the programme has had a significant impact on maize productivity promoted in the initial phase but not on the other crops – mainly oilseeds – promoted later. Third, the initially less productive farmers seem to benefit slightly more than already better performing ones. Fourth, although the impact on overall household security was insignificant, there is some suggestive evidence (although the effect is weak) that the programme has a positive effect on improving women’s uptake of micronutrients. Finally, our findings show that the three components of the programme (trainings, seed loans and output purchases) have different effects on the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices and productivity, and to some extent on food security. Overall, the results suggest that NOSs, with all their risks, can play a role in the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, improving farm-level agricultural technologies, providing input credit, and thereby improving productivity and smallholder livelihoods. However, this is not automatically the case, as it crucially depends on the design and management of the project; the availability of good policies and institutions governing the rules of operation; the types of crops promoted; the duration of the project; and the political commitment of host countries, among others.
Topic:: Markets, Food Security, Participation, Farming, and Productivity
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

671. Determinants of Social Cohesion: Cross-Country Evidence

Author:: Yabibal M. Walle
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Noting that few studies to date have investigated the determinants of social cohesion in a comprehensive and systematic manner, this paper examines the macro-level determinants of social cohesion using a panel of up to 92 developing and developed countries for the period 1990–2020. Employing the system GMM dynamic panel data estimator, which addresses endogeneity concerns by means of internal instruments, I find that the levels of education, government size, globalisation, and economic development have significantly positive effects on most dimensions of a country’s social cohesion. In contrast, inflation, corruption and income inequality are detrimental to social cohesion.
Topic:: Corruption, Development, Income Inequality, Inflation, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

672. Ten Recommendations for Germany’s Feminist Development Policy

Author:: Ina Friesen and Alma Wisskirchen
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: In early 2022, Germany’s development minister Svenja Schulze announced the adoption of a feminist development policy. With this announcement, Germany joins a growing group of governments that have adopted or declared the adoption of an explicitly feminist perspective in their external policies. Drawing on these governments’ policies and the observations and recommendations by civil society and researchers, this Discussion Paper outlines ten key recommendations for Germany’s first feminist development policy. The first three recommendations focus on the conceptual foundation of the policy and lay out the importance of 1) an inclusive definition of gender, 2) a clarification of the feminist approach and the policy’s overall goal as well as 3) the need for an intersectional approach. The second set of recommendations concerns the implementation of the policy and stresses the importance of 4) a permanent cooperation with gender-focused and feminist organisations and 5) the necessity to increase funding for gender-related objectives in general and 6) for feminist organisations in particular. Further recommendations include 7) widening the range of sectors that target gender equality through a transformative approach and context-sensitive programming and by providing mechanisms to monitor and evaluate the implementation of the strategy’s goals, objectives and activities. The last three recommendations emphasise institutional aspects and the importance of 8) creating an institutional environment that best supports gender equality within the development ministry and its main implementing organisations, 9) the necessity of a coherent feminist approach between the different ministries, and 10) the importance of addressing possible challenges the ministry might face in the implementation of its feminist development policy.
Topic:: Development, Inequality, Feminism, and Gender
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

673. Inequality and Social Cohesion in Africa: Theoretical Insights and an Exploratory Empirical Investigation

Author:: Francesco Burchi and Gabriela Zapata-Román
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Inequality is bad per se and has adverse effects, among other things, on economic development and the environment. It is also often argued that high and increasing inequalities put societies under stress, which increases the likelihood of social conflicts. However, the literature on this topic is scarce and some of the conclusions are not adequately supported by empirical evidence. This is mainly because there are different definitions and measurements of social cohesion. Moreover, some definitions of social cohesion incorporate inequality, thus making it impossible to examine how these two phenomena interact with one another. This paper analyses both theoretically and empirically, the relationship between inequality and social cohesion. To do so, it employs a recent definition of social cohesion provided by Leininger et al. (2021). According to this definition, social cohesion is composed of three core attributes, namely trust, inclusive identity and cooperation for the common good. These attributes are examined in two dimensions, namely the horizontal (relationship among individuals) and vertical (relationship between individuals and state institutions) dimensions of social cohesion. This paper provides an overview of the empirical evidence regarding the relationship between inequality and the three attributes of social cohesion. We find that while inequality is likely to have a negative effect on all three attributes, the intensity of the relationship may depend on some key mediating factors. Moreover, we highlight the main pathways through which inequality could affect each of the three key attributes. The empirical analysis focuses on Africa. While there is some work in this field in Europe and Asia, to the best of our knowledge, there has not been any related empirical work thus far that has focused on African countries. To measure the three attributes of social cohesion, we use a database generated by Leininger et al. (2021), which is based on data from Afrobarometer and the V-Dem Institute. Inequality is mainly measured by the Gini coefficient and data are sourced from the World Income Distribution dataset. As expected, our analysis shows that countries with higher inequality usually have lower levels of social cohesion, which is measured by an aggregate index. This negative correlation holds when we analyse the relationship between the Gini coefficient and the three attributes separately; however, the intensity varies. It is stronger for trust (rho=0.25) compared with the other two attributes (both of which have a rho equal to approximately 0.1). Additional investigations point to substantially different results for the horizontal and vertical dimensions of social cohesion. Higher levels of inequality are associated with lower levels of horizontal trust and horizontal cooperation. On the other hand, higher levels of inequality are associated with higher levels of vertical trust and are essentially uncorrelated with vertical cooperation. These relationships remain substantially unchanged when we use measures of income inequality other than the Gini coefficient. Further analyses that aim to explain the puzzling results for the vertical dimension of social cohesion reveal that our findings are not clearly driven by trust in a specific institution and are also not an artefact of the specific data we used. Indeed, we obtain similar results using data from the World Values Survey. At the same time, it appears that the positive relationship between inequality and vertical trust is visible only among African countries, whereas it is not observed at the global level or for other regions. Further research is needed to confirm whether Africa is truly exceptional in this regard, and if so, why that may be the case.
Topic:: Development, Inequality, Economy, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:: Africa

674. Partnerships for Policy Transfer: How Brazil and China Engage in Triangular Cooperation with the United Nations

Author:: Laura Trajber Waisbich and Sebastian Haug
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper offers a comparative analysis of Brazilian and Chinese partnerships with the United Nations (UN) as a mechanism and channel for policy transfer. In international policy travel flows, China and Brazil currently hold privileged places as hubs from which development-related policies travel and through which they circulate. Both countries have invested in systematising their development experience and transferring development policies within their regions and beyond – often through triangular cooperation, i.e. South–South cooperation supported by third actors such as UN entities. So far, however, this variegated engagement has remained under the radar of scholarly attention. To address this gap, we examine 35 policy transfer partnerships – 17 for Brazil and 18 for China – forged with different parts of the UN system over the last two decades. In order to offer a first systematic account of partnership trajectories, we provide an overview of partnership types (namely projects, programmes and policy centres) and transfer dimensions (including the policies themselves, transfer agents and governance arrangements). Our comparative mapping presents an evolving landscape: while Brazil was first in institutionalising robust policy transfer partnerships with numerous UN entities and then slowed down, China started more cautiously but has significantly expanded its collaboration with the UN system since 2015. The partnerships analysed cover a substantial range of sectors, with a particular focus – for both Brazil and China – on agricultural policies. While Brazilian partnerships with the UN primarily engage with linkages between agriculture and social protection, however, China–UN partnerships focus more on productivity and market linkages. As the first comprehensive mapping and comparative analysis of Brazilian and Chinese policy transfer partnerships with the UN, this paper contributes to a better understanding of (triangular) cooperation schemes between international organisations and their member states, as well as debates about how policies deemed as successful travel around the globe.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

675. How Does Urban Rail Development in China and India Enable Technological Upgrading?

Author:: Emmanuel Theodore Asimeng and Tilman Altenburg
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The socioeconomic wellbeing of urban areas depends on a well-functioning transportation system that makes it easier for people to access goods and services. Whereas most urban areas in emerging economies are expanding in size and human population, high motorisation and inadequate public transport services have resulted in congestion, traffic accidents and increasing transport-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Urban rail development can help address the current transportation problem because trains can move a large number of people at high speed, provide reliable services, contribute to lower GHGs and have a low accident rate. However, urban rail is expensive and requires many technical and technological capabilities often unavailable in emerging economies because they are technology latecomers. This paper examines how two emerging economies, China and India, have adopted industrial policies to develop local capabilities for urban rail technology. The paper shows how the Chinese government has moved from purchasing urban rail technology from multinational companies (MNCs) to the current situation where it has developed local capabilities, owns rail technology patents and competes with the same MNCs on the international market. The paper also demonstrates how India is gradually improving the local manufacturing of rail subsystems as opposed to importation. Overall, the paper suggests a pathway to industrial policy adoption that demonstrates how emerging economies can catch up with urban rail technology development to address their local transportation needs.
Topic:: Development, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Multinational Corporations, Urban, and Railways
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

676. The EU-CEAP Impacts on Developing Countries: An Analysis of the Plastic Packaging, Electric Vehicles and Batteries Sectors

Author:: Jenny To
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The European Union Circular Economy Action Plan (EU-CEAP) is key to transitioning to a circular economy and climate neutrality under the EU Green Deal – and developing and emerging countries (DECs) play important roles. They are essential for primary material chains, for example, for electric vehicle batteries. DECs are also part of secondary material chains, and Europe relies on them to recycle its plastic packaging. Despite the crucial roles that DECs play in Europe’s transition to a circular economy, literature and policy discourses have not yet examined the EU-CEAP’s impact. This discussion paper fills this gap by outlining the EU-CEAP’s challenges and opportunities for DECs and presents recommendations for development cooperation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, European Union, Batteries, Electric Vehicles, and Plastic
Political Geography:: Europe

677. Mexico’s “Catch-22”: The Implications of Being a Trade and Climate Partner of the United States and the European Union

Author:: Simone Lucatello
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Under the current global environmental governance and trade regimes, several initiatives, such as the new United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, the European Union’s European Green Deal, and regional free trade agreements the European Union has implemented with strategic partners like Mexico, are prompting a vibrant discussion on how trade agreements can be used as a potential mechanism to create enforceable cross-border commitments to tackle climate change. However, to cut greenhouse gas emissions within a few decades, a decisive departure from current trends in emission and trade policies is required by all countries, both developed and developing. As a result, politicians, scholars and experts around the world have looked to trade agreements as a possible tool for reaching global climate commitments, either related to or independent from the Paris Agreement. But how well do these agreements suit this purpose? Carbon-intensive products worldwide increased when tariff reductions were implemented, resulting in destructive practices for many countries, particularly those in the Global South. For countries such as Mexico, the nexus between trade and climate change is not easy to address: the country is trapped between its ambitions to play a role in global trade platforms as an industrial manufacturer and agricultural exporter and its desire to be recognized as a global actor in climate change policy and actions within the global community. Despite recent changes in climate and environmental politics under the administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018–2024), Mexico is a middle-income country with a long-standing tradition as climate champion and environmental leader in the Global South and needs to make clear where it stands under the new global environmental and ecological transition scenario imposed by the climate crisis and trade-related issues. The “entanglement” of global trade treaties and commitments under the current climate crisis, represents a major shift for Mexico. Caught between the new US–Mexico-Canada Agreement, the EU–Mexico Trade Agreement and the possible impacts of the European Green Deal, Mexico needs to define its role in trade and environmental terms alongside giant partners such as the United States and the European Union, while defending its role as a regional power. If the European Green Deal takes off as an international driver for deepening climate and sustainable development goals with European Union strategic partners, it remains to be seen how Mexico will respond to the challenge. In this paper we address the possible implications for Mexico under each of these instruments. We look at the interplay between them, explore the linkages and possible conflictual pathways, and “disentangle” the schemes in which trade and climate change are interconnected. Mexico may be trapped in a “catch-22” situation. Environmental provisions embedded in trade treaties provide critical benefits to the country, but this often comes at the expense of “unacceptable” environmental enforcement measures that can put at risk national development plans, especially at a time when the environment and climate change issues are not at the top of the current administration’s political agenda.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, European Union, Partnerships, Trade, and Green Deal
Political Geography:: North America, Mexico, and United States of America

678. Social Cohesion and Firms’ Access to Finance in Africa

Author:: Yabibal M. Walle
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Social cohesion has recently gained increasing attention in academic and policy circles. Apart from being a necessary feature of stable societies per se, social cohesion is also a key factor for sustainable economic development. One potential means through which social cohesion could foster economic development is by enhancing financial development. In this paper, we examine whether social cohesion is significantly associated with firms’ access to finance in Africa. To this end, we use a recently constructed dataset on social cohesion in Africa, which is based on the Afrobarometer survey and the Varieties of Democracy database. The dataset contains indices for the three pillars of social cohesion – trust, inclusive identity and cooperation for the common good. Combining this dataset with that of the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, we build a sample which covers more than 12,500 firms and 27 African countries. Our results show that all three components of social cohesion are positively associated with at least one measure of firms’ access to external finance. In particular, trust – but not inclusive identity and cooperation for the common good – is significantly associated with the likelihood that firms have a checking or savings account, or are financially constrained. When we measure access to finance with respect to having a line of credit or a loan from a financial institution, all the three pillars of social cohesion, including inclusive identity and cooperation for the common good, are related to access to finance. The results are robust to addressing endogeneity concerns using a heteroskedasticity-based identification strategy. Overall, our results suggest that improving social cohesion (e.g. through social protection, education, strengthening civil society organisations) could do more than hold society together; it could also promote access to finance, growth of firms, and thus economic development and job creation.
Topic:: Finance, Business, Economic Development, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:: Africa

679. Green Jobs in Cities: Challenges and Opportunities in African and Asian Intermediary Cities

Author:: Wolfgang Scholz and Michael Fink
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Cities account for approximately 70 per cent of global energy consumption and about 75 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions due to the density of economic activities and infrastructure and their often path-dependent development patterns. Cities adopting a green transformation process can minimise their environmental impact and maximise opportunities to improve and support the natural environment. Topics to address are energy efficiency and reduction of non-renewable energy sources to reduce their carbon footprint; actively support waste reduction and management; establish green and resilient infrastructure; encourage nature-based solutions; enhance the efficiency of new buildings; encourage low-carbon transport; and improve water cycle management. Also, these fields will lead to a greener urban economy, create more green jobs – or respectively change jobs towards becoming green – and deliver improved quality of life outcomes for residents. The aim of this discussion paper is to address the challenges, opportunities and fields of actions – respectively interventions – of these economic, but also social transformations on the job market on the level of cities. The regional focus is on African and Asian cities in developing countries. A special focus is on intermediary cities with between 1 to 5 million inhabitants since they constitute the fastest-growing urban areas today and more importantly, they have both the capacity and expertise to guide an economic transformation while still being, at the same time, not too large to be managed effectively, as outlined above. The fields of action for cities in a transformation towards a green economy, thereby creating green jobs, can be clustered into: • land use planning • green buildings and construction • sustainable mobility and urban transport • green and blue urban infrastructure services with nature-based solutions (NBSs) as a cross-cutting issue • renewable energy and energy efficiency The employment effects of a transformation towards a green economy play an important role. The opportunities for cities in Africa and Asia to create green jobs under their own local mandates of decision-making in urban planning and within their own service providers, and/or to support the “greening” of the private sector, will obviously create more green jobs, and respectively shift current jobs into green jobs.
Topic:: Development, Cities, Carbon Emissions, Opportunity, Energy, and Green Jobs
Political Geography:: Africa and Asia

680. Just Transitions: A Review of How to Decarbonise Energy Systems While Addressing Poverty and Inequality Reduction

Author:: Daniele Malerba
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Germany promotes “just transition” as a guiding principle for the global transition to a socially and environmentally sustainable economy that incorporates the necessary climate, environmental and energy policy measures. This includes the urgent transformation of economies to become emission neutral while ensuring a process whereby poverty and inequality are reduced, and no one is left behind. The German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), the World Bank and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) worked together to explore ways to implement the concept of just transition in German development cooperation. The two papers that have resulted from this process outline approaches to a “just transition for all” and highlight its potential to reduce poverty and inequality (SDG 1 and SDG 10). In recent decades, the interdependencies between social and ecological development have become clear: negative effects of climate change particularly affect vulnerable and marginalised groups living in poverty. At the same time, social inequalities contribute to an exacerbation of climate change. A just transition must effectively address the consequences at the international, national, regional and local levels. Both papers provide an overview of existing approaches and challenges to foster a “just transition for all”. They offer different but complementary perspectives on an increasingly important complex of topics. This first paper, by DIE, takes a broad perspective by considering the decarbonisation of the energy sector as a whole, outlining the connections between just transition, poverty and inequality, and exploring how to ensure a just transition (for both workers and consumers) through the use of different social protection mechanisms. It argues that it is possible to make energy transitions just, but that properly designed combinations of socio-economic and climate policies are needed. A second paper, by the World Bank, zooms in on the transition away from coal. It lays out key social and community impacts resulting from the decommissioning of coal assets, based on experience gained from World Bank operations and from industrialised countries, and articulates an enhanced approach to supporting the coal transition. Both provide practical recommendations for international development cooperation in general, and for German development cooperation in particular.
Topic:: Development, Poverty, Inequality, Economy, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

681. Urbanisation and Rural Development in Developing Countries: A Review of Pathways and Impacts

Author:: Tekalign Gutu Sakketa
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper reviews the current state of literature on the impacts of urbanisation on rural development in developing countries, with an emphasis on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Assessments of these effects diverge greatly. While some authors see urbanisation as strongly benefitting rural areas, for instance, through increased demand for agricultural goods and services, others highlight negative effects, for example, through the loss of livelihoods emanating from displacements and the conversion of agricultural land. Given this complexity, a review that thoroughly analyses the causal relationships between urbanisation and rural development is warranted. To do this, this Discussion Paper identifies seven channels through which urbanisation affects rural development: i) production and consumption linkages; ii) employment linkages; iii) financial linkages; iv) land market linkages; v) information and public service linkages; vi) social interactions linkages; and vii) environmental externalities. As to the first channel, production and consumption linkages, the review suggests that urbanisation has increased demand for agricultural products and services; natural resources; commercialisation and modernisation of agricultural technologies; and smallholders’ participation in modern agricultural value chains. The employment channel suggests that rapid urbanisation is enabling the diversification of rural livelihoods by bringing new economic opportunities to rural areas, but the effects have not been uniform across countries and communities. With regard to financial linkages, flows from cities have increased in many developing countries, benefitting rural areas; yet some studies point to no or to negative effects due to reduced agricultural productivity from the loss of labour and technology, and the crowding out of investment. Land market effects are particularly heterogeneous. While urbanisation tends to drive land value up and encourages investments, there are also negative developments in terms of crowding out and speculation. As to information and public service linkages, the review suggests that urbanisation has fostered information and knowledge flows from urban areas to rural areas which have improved income, innovation, and employment. Social interactions among urban and rural citizens more generally may bridge cultural gaps, improve the flow of information, knowledge, and resources pertinent for rural economic transformation, and thereby enhance social cohesion; yet little empirical evidence exists so far in terms of effects and causalities. Finally, urbanisation affects rural development through the environmental externalities it generates: waste disposal, environmental degradation, and loss of biodiversity. If appropriate technologies are put in place, urbanisation can also improve waste management and soil fertility, thus reducing the cost of agricultural production. To this end, the review has identified research gaps that have important policy implications. First, although effective rural-urban planning, monitoring and evaluation of rural-urban development policies require better data, there is lack of data collection systems or their quality is poor. In this respect, investing in emerging data sources such as satellites data can help countries improve their data collection systems and measures. Second, research is needed to revise and reformulate better theoretical frameworks that take into account the uniqueness of African urban cities. Third, empirical evidence which documents to what extent and how rural-urban linkages provide an important arena for improving social interactions among neighbours, societies, and communities is needed. Finally, as many African countries continue to experience rapid urbanisation (mostly urban sprawl), a thorough study of the impacts of urban externalities on agricultural productivity, food security, biodiversity, and the health of rural communities is necessary.
Topic:: Development, Environment, Urbanization, Employment, Finance, and Public Service
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

682. Only game in town? Inequality and demand for democracy in Africa – a micro perspective

Author:: Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: In this paper, the author explores whether perceived inequality is associated with demand for democracy among Africans. Past research has diverged on whether macro-level inequality should increase or decrease support for democracy, with some arguing that people might see democracy as a solution to inequality, and others that people might see it as a cause. I advance this literature by using a perceptual measure of inequality from Afrobarometer: how people feel their living situation compares to others’ in their country. I find that perceived equality is significantly associated with greater demand for democracy, while perceptions of relative deprivation and relative advantage are both associated with lower democratic demand. These effects are largely significant above and beyond the effect of absolute poverty and known predictors of support for democracy, such as free and fair elections and level of education.
Topic:: Education, Elections, Democracy, Inequality, and Social Order
Political Geography:: Africa

683. Measuring the impact of self-censorship on political party support in Afrobarometer data using machine learning

Author:: Paul Friesen
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Measures of political party support are viewed suspiciously in hybrid and authoritarian regimes where the two core indicators of political support – elections and public opinion polling – cannot be readily trusted. More accurately, the degree of measurement error is unknown, though scholars presume support for incumbent leaders and parties is exaggerated. This paper scrutinizes the degree to which political opinions on Afrobarometer surveys can be trusted by re-estimating voting preferences for 34 African countries. First, a range of demographic and interview metadata are regressed upon vote choice to see if they systematically influence vote-preference responses. Next, key markers of potential self-censorship are identified and used to create pools of “clean” and “polluted” data. Clean data are used to train a machine learning model to predict voting intentions, and then all data with self-censorship markers are recalculated. The results show that ruling party support is broadly similar in most countries but exaggerated by more than 10 percentage points in Sudan and Uganda and by between 5 and 10 points in Burundi, Tanzania, Togo, and Zimbabwe. Declines in ruling party support due to self-censorship are concurrent with increases in both non-responses and opposition party support.
Topic:: Politics, Censorship, Party System, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: Africa

684. Population density and governance in Africa

Author:: Pranish Desai
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Across Africa, denser populations are associated with less confidence in institutions and the rule of law. What does that mean for the world’s fastest-urbanising continent?
Topic:: Governance, Population, Urbanization, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:: Africa

685. Declining poverty level in Ghana: Exploring the role of migrants’ remittances

Author:: Daniel Armah-Attoh
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Ghana has a long history of citizens migrating to other countries. Many of these migrants send remittances to relations and acquaintances back home, often to help recipients experiencing poverty and a lack of employment and economic opportunities. Empirical studies have established the poverty-alleviation impact of remittances in Africa, including Ghana. This study uses pooled Afrobarometer survey data collected between 2002 and 2017 to assess the relationship between migrants’ remittances and lived poverty in Ghana. Multiple statistical approaches suggest that remittances have a negative and statistically significant impact on lived poverty. We therefore recommend that the government institute policy measures to encourage the use of formal channels for such transfers to enable the country to harness the full development potential, including the poverty-reduction benefits, of migrants’ remittances.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, Migrants, and Cost of Living
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

686. Mine Action as a Confidence- and Security-building Measure in the OSCE Region

Author:: Claudia Ditel
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Mine action has the potential to incentivise confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs), because it could contribute to development and reconciliation through the creation of communities of practice among individuals from civil society and at the grassroots level as part of post-conflict reconstruction. Although many Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) participating States are contaminated by mines, mine action as a CSBM has scarcely been included in peace negotiations, because it is thought that it might hinder the peace process. Yet mine action, if “depoliticised”, could be implemented independently of peace negotiations through the creation of spaces for cooperation in demining projects of common interest to rival communities. The OSCE is well placed to propose these strategies, especially in Eastern Ukraine, Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh, which are not only affected by protracted conflicts with limited engagement of the population in the peace process but are also highly contaminated by mines.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Violence, and Landmines
Political Geography:: Europe

687. Blockchain Technology: An Innovative Policy Tool for Enhancing Conventional Arms Control and Verification

Author:: Nicolo Miotto
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Blockchain represents an unprecedented opportunity for enhancing conventional arms control (CAC) and verification. Based on the principles of transparency, verifiability, and predictability, this state-of-the-art technology could build confidence and facilitate the implementation of arms control mechanisms. Blockchain-based so-called “smart contracts” have advantageous practical implications for CAC. They could improve the verification of countries’ compliance with their CAC obligations by enhancing monitoring procedures and could strengthen arms export controls by improving treaty signatories’ ability to monitor weapons and ammunition supply chains. Reinforcing the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) framework for conventional ammunition control with a permissioned blockchain would provide greater confidentiality and improve monitoring and data verifiability, thus strengthening the OSCE’s CAC regimes.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Blockchain
Political Geography:: Europe

688. Commitment to Control Weaponised Artificial Intelligence: A Step Forward for the OSCE and European Security

Author:: Anna Nadibaidze
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The global debate on weaponised artificial intelligence (AI) often focuses on futuristic “killer robots”, which risks overlooking the fact that these technologies are already part of the security landscape. Diminishing human control over the use of force and the differences in states’ discourse pose a considerable risk for European security and stability. The impact of AI is not inevitable, and states should address this issue through political means, such as a political declaration with a commitment to ensuring human control over the use of force. With its inclusive membership, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) can and should become the platform through which its participating States can take a step forward in the global debate on weaponised AI.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Artificial Intelligence, and OSCE
Political Geography:: Europe

689. The Technology of Terror: from Dynamite to the Metaverse

Author:: Christina Schori Liang
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Non-state actors have always been interested in obtaining and mastering innovative weapons. According to “lethal empowerment theory”, new technologies will be rapidly adopted and adapted by violent non-state actors when they are accessible, cheap, simple to use, transportable, concealable, and effective. Terrorists are interested in weapons that are useful in a wide range of contexts – “that magnify effects, are symbolically resonant and can be given to unexpected uses.” It is thus important to be vigilant in analysing how actors will leverage and innovate new technologies for malicious purposes, in order to confront the “unknown unknowns” and not repeat the mistakes based on a “failure of imagination”, as highlighted in the 9/11 Commission Report.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Terrorism, Governance, Social Media, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

690. Our Digital Future: The Security Implications of Metaverses

Author:: Jean-Marc Rickli and Frederico Mantellassi
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Although the concept of a metaverse or metaverses is not new, current developments in the creation of possible metaverses offer credible prospects of generating increasingly immersive digital experiences that will also provide people with more information, connections and knowledge than ever before. However, metaverses are also likely to exacerbate existing risks surrounding the increased digitalisation of our lives and the role of social media companies in our societies, such as the spread of disinformation or increased societal polarisation. Similarly, technology companies’capacity to collect private data and profile users will also increase. Growing levels of immersivity will reinforce risks such as increased digital crime or extremist radicalisation, but will also create new ones that pertain to cognitive manipulations. This could lead to the transformation of social organisations and a questioning of the legitimacy of traditional institutions. Metaverses also offer new dimensions for power politics and geopolitical confrontations, and a platform for conducting cognitive warfare. Responsible innovations and security-by-design must be the guiding principles of efforts to develop metaverses.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Social Media, Innovation, and Digital Culture
Political Geography:: Global Focus

691. Securing AI-based Security Systems

Author:: Sandra Scott-Hayward
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Fundamental weaknesses of AI include brittleness, embedded bias, catastrophic forgetting and lack of explainability. Although research is under way to address some of these issues, the adoption of AI techniques and models in security systems exposes potentially critical security systems to weaknesses/vulnerabilities such as these. Adversarial training is one strongly recommended approach to increase the robustness (i.e. reduce the brittleness) of the AI model. In this approach, the training dataset is extended to include adversarial examples representative of potential attacks on the system. However, the implementation of adversarial training is currently ad hoc. Given the evidence of AI weaknesses, the omission of adversarial training and similar hardening techniques for AI-based security systems is unacceptable. Standardised testing and evaluation of AI-based security systems is recommended. From a governance perspective, evidence of adversarial robustness evaluation should be a minimum requirement for the acceptance of an AI-based security system. The production of strong adversarial samples does not account for “black swan” events, i.e. random and unexpected events that have an extreme impact. Given that security systems tend to be designed to detect “old” or “known” types of attack, ways need to be found to manage the occurrence of “new” attacks.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

692. The White Paper on the Future of Environmental Peacebuilding

Author:: Oli Brown and Nicolucci-Altman-Giuliana
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The term ‘White Paper’ is typically used in government circles to denote a publicly available, balanced document designed to help readers make decisions. This white paper seeks to encourage debate and discussion over the challenges, opportunities, and possibilities for environmental peacebuilding in conflict-affected states and societies. The paper and compendium are the product of a global conversation about the future of environmental peacebuilding and they draw from extensive academic work and practical experience. This white paper is inspired by many voices. Though concise, the white paper hopes to emphasize the growing assortment of approaches, ideas and visions for the future of environmental peacebuilding. The white paper is divided into four parts. The first gathers perspectives on the global context of environmental peacebuilding. The second points to some of the key challenges to environmental peacebuilding practice, while part three highlights important opportunities to harness the environment for peace. The fourth presents an agenda for the future of environmental peacebuilding.
Topic:: Security, Environment, International Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

693. Peace and Security 2025

Author:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The exact nature of the peace and security environment of 2025 is, of course, unknown, but we have information available to us today and yesterday’s experience to guide us in our attempts to imagine what the key features of that environment might be. This teaches us that surprises will continue to happen. Our attempt to identify what 2025 will look like could simply stop here, and we could approach the next few years day by day and month by month, establish our strategic plans, and constantly adjust them in response to new circumstances as they arise. However, we can go a step further and use strategic foresight to help us creatively and systematically explore how that future may unfold and consider collectively the alternatives available to us for dealing with what happens and its implications. This publication takes the latter approach by asking the authors to determine a vision for particular global regions and realistically and concretely assess how we can achieve this vision (Part I), and present suggestions for how we as professionals in the peace and security domain can collaborate to respond as effectively as possible to the challenges of the next few years (Part II). In that sense, the analysis and suggestions presented here balance realism about the challenges ahead with a proactive and constructive perspective on how best to confront them. It is with this in mind that the subheading of this publication is “disrupted visions and resilient approaches”.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Peace, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Global Focus

694. Delay, Detect, Defend: Preparing for a Future in which Thousands Can Release New Pandemics

Author:: Kevin M. Esvelt
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The world is demonstrably vulnerable to the introduction of a single pandemic virus with a comparatively low case fatality rate. The deliberate and simultaneous release of many pandemic viruses across travel hubs could threaten the stability of civilisation. Current trends suggest that within a decade, tens of thousands of skilled individuals will be able to access the information required for them to single-handedly cause new pandemics. Safeguarding civilisation from the catastrophic misuse of biotechnology requires delaying the development and misuse of pandemic-class agents while building systems capable of reliably detecting threats and preventing nearly all infections.
Topic:: Security, Public Health, Pandemic, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

695. The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Global Sanctions Landscape

Author:: Ali Ahmadi
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The Russia-Ukraine conflict will accelerate the global trend towards increasing great power competition that pits the existing West-anchored world order against others, especially Russia and China. This new era will have significant implications for the global sanctions landscape as sanctions that have been effective in harming countries with smaller economies are increasingly focused on larger economic powers that are integrated into the global economy. This will carry a far greater risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the sanctions weapon, because larger economies like that of China have a greater capacity to overcome technology export restrictions and the US dollar’s centrality in global finance. While sanctions campaigns often seek to coerce the target state into policy modification, sanctions may be increasingly used for the purpose of economic containment by attempting to retard the long-term economic development of states. This may result in open-ended sanctions campaigns that will generate a new era of geoeconomics where sanctions risk factors become key to the design of business relationships and supply chains. The use of financial sanctions against larger economies will exacerbate already existing trends of de-banking and a decline in corresponding banking relationships. Technology sanctions and export controls will be increasingly central as sanction-imposing countries in the West seek to leverage their superiority in key emerging technologies against those they perceive to be their adversaries.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Sanctions, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

696. India’s Approach to Food Security Resilience Amid COVID-19: Relevance to ASEAN?

Author:: Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The International Monetary Fund recently lauded India’s feat of minimising the COVID-19 pandemic’s impacts on extreme poverty, owing to its food subsidy policies; in contrast, more than 4.7 million people fell into extreme poverty among ASEAN member states (AMS). This NTS Insight highlights relevant aspects of India’s food security approaches which allowed it to provide encompassing food subsidies amidst disruptions. It then assesses their relevance to AMS in facing future disruptions. India’s feat built on its digital identity and digital ration card systems, to minimise leakages in subsidised food. These are supported by India’s food procurement and distribution/stockpile management systems for achieving stockpile targets. Its government guarantees to purchase whatever crops farmers produce, at a pre-announced price. On surface, India’s feat seems to contradict AMS’ purely laissez-faire approach of leaving supply outcomes to the market. In reality, India’s farmers are able to sell their crops in open markets, and government guarantees only supplement the market, to ensure sufficient food stocks and reduce reliance on higher-priced imported crops. As such, it is worth exploring whether more can be done in improving AMS’ resilience amidst growing food supply chain instability, including strengthening systems for digital identity, distribution, stockpile management and procurement.
Topic:: Food Security, Pandemic, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia and ASEAN

697. Planetary Health: Reflections from Asia

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Planetary Health is a concept that advocates the care of the planet for human own survivability. It underscores the health implications of environmental degradation brought about by human activities and development progress, and calls for a systemic approach that considers and addresses socio-environmental trade-offs of certain policy and/or economic objectives. In view of multiple crises that have been happening in recent years – from the COVID-19 pandemic to the war in Ukraine – which have further negatively affected the environment, understanding how Planetary Health can be applied to address continuing environmental decline is critical. Planetary Health is a relatively new term in Asia. Drawing from the discussions in the 6th NTS-Asia Consortium Annual Conference in April 2022, this NTS Insight maps the different ways Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, Japan, and China engage Planetary Health in their specific contexts. The interpretations of the concept are likely to influence the trajectory of its implementation.
Topic:: Health, International Cooperation, Recovery, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia

698. Food Insecurity Beyond Borders: Untangling the Complex Impacts of Ukraine War on Global Food Security

Author:: Jose Montesclaros and Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Conflict has historically influenced food insecurity within countries. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is of a different nature, as it is worsening food insecurity in other countries too, thereby undermining global food security. This NTS insight untangles the dynamics of conflict-induced food insecurity beyond borders amid the ongoing war. Today’s conflict poses an unprecedented challenge to global food security given its timing, with countries inheriting fiscal challenges from previous bouts with the COVID-19 pandemic; concurrent disruptions to food and energy supply chains; and worsening climate threats to agriculture. Should the war be protracted, the world risks further instability through cost-of-living crises and food price crises. World leaders should therefore carefully weigh these risks, as they deliberate their stances in putting an end to the war.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Food, Food Security, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

699. Expanding the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Technology and Climate Change Adaptation: Opportunities and Challenges

Author:: Julius Caesar Trajano
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: While ongoing debates on the critical role of nuclear power plants in achieving the goals established in the 2015 Paris Agreement remain unsettled, the peaceful applications of nuclear technology in climate change adaptation have been expanding in recent years. The peaceful uses of nuclear technology cannot be excluded from innovative approaches to addressing the world’s most pressing and complex challenge─ climate change. This NTS Insight examines how nuclear technology can be deployed to strengthen climate adaptation measures and presents case studies from several Southeast Asian countries that have nuclear research and scientific programmes. Nuclear technology is being utilised in adopting climate-smart agriculture, modernising water management, enhancing greenhouse gas emissions analysis, and combatting plastic pollution. This Insight offers agendas for action by Southeast Asian countries to address key challenges to expanding the role of nuclear technology in addressing climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Science and Technology, Nuclear Power, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Asia

700. Is Doughnut Economics a Means Towards Achieving Planetary Health?

Author:: Jonathan Ramakrishna
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: With the advent of climate change, the global focus is no longer lingering alone on climate change mitigation and has shifted towards climate adaptation as well. The 2015 Paris Agreement’s target of restricting the average temperature rise in the 21st century to well below two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels is increasing unlikely, given the inaction of states and the global lack of progress in meeting Paris Agreement goals. As nations scramble to meet Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and effectively design climate policies, the global crisis has given rise to a new domain, Planetary Health. Planetary Health, an interdisciplinary field, is described as a solutions-focused discipline which aims to analyse, mitigate, and resolve human disruption to Earth’s natural systems in the new Anthropocene epoch. The Anthropocene epoch, on the other hand, is established as a geological climate where human activity is drastically altering earth’s systems to an extent that will be reflected in fossil records. Planetary Health inextricably links human health to the health of the planet and illustrates the interdependency of the two, and this relationship has been substantiated by findings which concur that countries with higher ecological threats concurrently experience greater social vulnerability. When climate-induced disasters occur due to human action, there are subsequent consequences on food, water, energy, and human security. The consequences are disproportionately felt by vulnerable communities in states that lack resources and capabilities to address the consequent impacts on human security, and climate instability is a driving force behind political instability. Thus, there is cause for concern not only for the planet’s health but also for human health as the environment’s health continues to dwindle in the Anthropocene Epoch. As such, the concept of Planetary Health is a response to threatened climate security and human security.
Topic:: Economics, Health, International Cooperation, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS