Content Type: Working Paper / Publication Year: within 25 Years and within 10 Years / Topic: Security

701. A Window of Opportunity to Upgrade EU Foreign Policy

Author:: Stefan Lehne
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: As the financial crisis recedes and the European Union (EU) regains a measure of internal stability, pressure in Europe\'s neighborhood is on the rise. The Ukraine crisis and turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa have elevated foreign policy to the top of the EU\'s agenda. Whether the EU can make its external action more effective will depend in large part on institutional decisions made in 2014—the selection of a new leadership team and the reorganization of the European Commission.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Human Rights, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and North Africa

702. The Afghan National Police in 2015 and Beyond

Author:: Michelle Hughes
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Afghan National Police (ANP) has made remarkable progress, but the challenges are urgent, and critical capabilities remain underdeveloped. Within the framework of the minister of interior's own Strategic Vision, opportunities will arise to close some of the capacity gaps in the coming years. Helping the ANP shift from a wartime footing to a contextually appropriate community policing model, and advancing professionalism within the ministry and the operating forces, is critical to sustainability. If a national police force is going to succeed, the linkage between policing and governance must be recognized and strengthened. Managing the expanding array of ANP donors and their activities poses a unique challenge that has yet to be addressed. It is an executive challenge for the Ministry of Interior and a coordination challenge for the international community. For both, it will require a long-term approach. To facilitate effective evidence-based operations (EvBO) and strengthen the relationship between the ANP and the communities it serves, U.S.-funded activities that build capacity for justice and governance need to be more closely aligned with ANP development.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Asia

703. President Rouhani and the IRGC

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Although President Rouhani has persuaded the Supreme Leader to adjust the IRGC's economic functions, he has not challenged its role in shaping Iran's nuclear policy. President Hassan Rouhani's relationship with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a central dynamic in the country's politics and economy. As always, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ultimately determines the roles of the president and the IRGC, so Rouhani has sought to pursue his economic imperatives without crossing the Supreme Leader or the military elite on the nuclear issue.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

704. A Cosmetic End to Madagascar's Crisis?

Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Madagascar is on the cusp of exiting a five-year political crisis compounded by economic disorder and international isolation. Presidential elections in late 2013 were endorsed as credible following the victory of Hery Rajaonarimampianina. The return to democracy paves the way for renewed international support. However, division entrenched by former President Marc Ravalomanana's exile has polarised the country. The coup regime of Andry Rajoelina was characterised by socio-economic malaise, rampant corruption, institutional decay and the breakdown in the rule of law. The political system, which is the primary obstacle to sustained recovery, needs much more than a cosmetic makeover; fundamental reform is necessary. The African Union, Southern African Development Community and International Support Group for Madagascar must support Rajaonarimampianina's efforts to balance political interests in a marked departure from the traditional winner-take-all approach; reform and strengthening of key democratic institutions; and reform and professionalisation of the security sector.
Topic:: Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and Tamil Nadu

705. Jordan Not Out of the Woods Yet

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President Obama's reaffirmed pledges of assistance to Jordan are helpful, but they may not be enough to safeguard the country if the situation in Syria continues to fester. On February 14, President Obama met with Jordan's King Abdullah II in Rancho Mirage, California. In the year since their previous summit, tens of thousands of Syrians have been killed and over 400,000 have registered as refugees in Jordan, bringing the total number of exiles from across the northern border to nearly 1 million. Despite the deterioration next door and the 16 percent increase in the kingdom's population, Jordan is paradoxically more stable today than when the two leaders met in March 2013. Yet the refugees still constitute a threat that will likely increase, especially given President Obama's assessment that "we don't expect to solve [the Syria crisis] anytime in the short term."
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Syria

706. Salafism as a National Security Threat for Iran

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Although Tehran worries about internal threats from Salafi jihadists, it may well cooperate with such groups if they attack Western interests.
Topic:: Security, Religion, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Iran and North America

707. Civil Defense Groups

Author:: Bruce "Ossie" Oswald
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Between 1981 and 2007, governments in eighty-eight countries established or supported more than three hundred armed militias to provide security to local communities. Such militias often directly engage in armed conflict and law-and-order activities. A number of state-supported civil defense groups make local communities less secure by refusing to respond to state direction, setting up security apparatuses in competition with state authorities, committing human rights violations, and engaging in criminal behavior. The doctrine of state responsibility and the application of international humanitarian law, international human rights law, and international criminal law obligate the state or states that establish or support civil defense groups to investigate, prosecute, punish, and provide reparations or compensate victims. In many cases, the domestic laws of states are ineffective at holding members of govern¬ments or civil defense groups accountable. Local law enforcement authorities also often fail to investigate or prosecute members of civil defense groups. At present there is no specific international legal instrument to guide the responsible management of relationships between states and civil defense groups. Thus, the international community should develop a legal instrument that specifies the rules and principles that apply to states and civil defense groups and that includes a due diligence framework that focuses on accountability and governance of both states and civil defense groups. Such a framework would enhance the protection and security of communities by setting accountability and governance standards, assisting in security sector reform by establishing benchmarks and evaluation processes, and contributing to the reinforcement of legal rules and principles that apply in armed conflicts. For fragile states or those in a post conflict phase of development, the better management of such forces is likely to build state legitimacy as a provider of security to vulnerable communities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States

708. A Counterterrorism Role for Pakistan's Police Stations

Author:: Robert Perito and Tariq Parvez
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Terrorism, secessionist insurgency, sectarian conflict, and ethnic turf wars have convulsed both Pakistan's major cities and tribal areas along the Afghanistan border. The escalation in mega-urban centers in particular has increased the importance of the police in controlling the endemic violence. The police station retains both its historic role as the symbol of government authority and its position as the basic law enforcement institution responsible for public order, law enforcement, and police services. Yet police stations and personnel are ill prepared and poorly equipped to meet the challenges of the country's complex, urbanized, and increasingly violent society. Pakistani police have found themselves on the front lines, and a growing number have given their lives to protect others in the struggle against terrorist and criminal groups. The need is now urgent to empower the police through a program of positive reform that would begin with modernizing police stations and reorienting and retraining their personnel. An effective program for police station reform would begin with assigning primacy to the police for controlling terrorism. It would include developing new organizational struc¬tures, positions, and standard operating procedures to ensure that local police understand their enhanced role and mission. It would also include improving police-public relations and networking police stations into a national information-sharing network with anti-terrorist agencies. Creating high-profile specialized units appears to offer a quick fix to a complex and increas¬ingly pervasive problem. The real solution, however, lies in empowering Pakistan's police stations to protect their communities from criminal and extremist violence through modern¬ization and reform.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Afghanistan

709. Inclusive Approaches to Community Policing and CVE

Author:: Georgia Holmer and Fulco van Deventer
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Accountable and effective policing institutions are key to stability in volatile environments, especially societies transitioning from conflict or authoritarian rule. From a development or peacebuilding perspective, community policing can aid in reform of security institutions and give civil society an active role in the process. Community policing—simultaneously an ethos, a strategy, and a collaboration—helps pro¬mote democratic policing ideals and advance a human security paradigm. Challenges to implementing such programs in transitional societies are considerable and tied to demographic and cultural variations in both communities and security actors. Developing trust, a key to success in all community policing, can be particularly difficult. Challenges are also unique when dealing with marginalized communities and members of society. Neither a police service nor a given community are monolithic. How police interact with one segment of a community might be—might need to be—completely different than how they approach another. Community policing programs designed to prevent violent extremism require a common and nuanced understanding between the community and the police as to what constitutes violent extremism and what is an effective response. When they agree, they can develop effective joint solutions to mitigate the threat. Key competencies can be grouped into four categories: those important to success for any com¬munity policing programs, those relevant to efforts to reform the security sector, to promote women's inclusion in security, or to prevent violent extremism. These objectives often overlap.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism

710. Stronger Together: Women Parliamentarians in Joint Action for Peace and Security

Author:: Agnes Venema
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The United Nations Security Council passed resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) in 2000, which is considered to be the back - bone of efforts to include women in peace negotiations, post-conflict reconstruction and disarmament, demobilization and re - integration initiatives around the world. Ten years after this landmark resolution was passed, the East West Institute's Parliamentarians Network for Conflict Prevention started its work on the Women, Peace and Security agenda upon the request of women members of parliament from Afghanistan and Pakistan, who felt marginalized, sidelined and excluded from their national security processes as well as from international dialogues on this issue.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United Nations

711. Amphibious Shipping Shortfalls

Author:: Maren Leed
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: For those in the amphibious operations business, these are tough times. Amphibious ships—the "work horse of the fleet" — are in short supply, and demand for the capabilities they bring to the table shows no sign of abating. Navy and Marine leaders, the Department of Defense, and the Congress are actively engaged in managing the risks that result from this gap in capability, though they are by no means unique to amphibious ships, the Navy, or the joint force more broadly.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, and Science and Technology

712. Opportunities in the Development of Pakistan's Private Sector

Author:: Sadika Hameed
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Relations between the United States and Pakistan have begun to improve after several years of heightened tensions. Yet many challenges remain. Among them is how to improve Pakistan's economy. Its economic crisis is one of the main sources of its internal tensions, but multiple opportunities exist to improve its economic performance. The policy debate in the United States, however, is still dominated by a focus on terrorism and extremism. While Pakistan's stability is a natural concern for the United States, focusing primarily on security issues limits the options for improving stability.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Economics
Political Geography:: Pakistan and United States

713. Security Transition in Afghanistan

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Creating an effective transition for the ANSF is only one of the major challenges that Afghanistan, the US, and Afghanistan's other allies face during 2014-2015 and beyond.
Topic:: Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Middle East

714. Climate Shocks, Food and Nutrition Security: Evidence from the Young Lives cohort study

Author:: Dornan Paul, Ogando Portela, Maria Jose, and Pells Kirrily
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Drawing on survey data from Young Lives, an international study of childhood poverty involving 12,000 children in four countries, this paper examines the effects of environmental shocks on food insecurity and children‟s development. The data, from children and their families living in rural and urban locations in Ethiopia, the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, Peru , and Vietnam , provide information on the same individuals over time, allowing consideration of how earlier incidences of food insecurity and exposures to environmental shocks shape later outcomes. Regression analysis is used to estimate the relationships between these and other relevant factors.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Human Welfare, and Food
Political Geography:: India, Vietnam, Ethiopia, Andhra Pradesh, and Peru

715. A Sign of Things to Come? Examining four major climate-related disasters, 2010–2013, and their impacts on food security

Author:: Coghlan Christopher, Muzammil Maliha, Ingram John, Vervoort Joost, Otto Friederike, and James Rachel
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: From 2010 to 2013 the world experienced a number of extreme weather events, several of which were notable for their intensity, duration, and impacts on livelihoods and food security. This report focuses on four case studies – a heat wave in Russia, flooding in Pakistan, drought in East Africa, and a typhoon in the Philippines – that represent a range of extreme weather. It analyses the impact of these extreme weather events on food security, by considering when and why threats emerge. This involves characterization of the weather events, examination of the vulnerable groups affected, and analysis of livelihoods and the role of governance and capital.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, and Food
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Africa, Russia, and Philippines

716. North America Time for a New Focus

Author:: Shannon K. O'Neil
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: North America was once called the New World. The people, their ideas, and the resources of the continent shaped the histories of the Old World—East and West. Today, North America is home to almost five hundred million people living in three vibrant democracies. If the three North American countries deepen their integration and cooperation, they have the potential to again shape world affairs for gen-erations to come.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Energy Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and America

717. ISIS Governance in Syria

Author:: Charles C. Caris and Samuel Reynolds
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: The Islamic State's June 2014 announcement of a “caliphate” is not empty rhetoric. In fact, the idea of the caliphate that rests within a controlled territory is a core part of ISIS's political vision. The ISIS grand strategy to realize this vision involves first establishing control of terrain through military conquest and then reinforcing this control through governance. This grand strategy proceeds in phases that have been laid out by ISIS itself in its publications, and elaborates a vision that it hopes will attract both fighters and citizens to its nascent state. The declaration of a caliphate in Iraq and Syria, however, raises the question: can ISIS govern?
Topic:: Security, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq and Syria

718. A strategy to defeat the islamic state

Author:: Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan, and Jessica D. Lewis
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: The Islamic State poses a grave danger to the United States and its allies in the Middle East and around the world due to its location, resources, the skill and determination of its leaders and fighters, and its demonstrated lethality compared to other al Qaeda-like groups. In Syria, the Assad regime has lost control of the majority of the state, and the regime's atrocities and sectarianism have fueled violent Islamists, particularly ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra (JN). In Iraq, the government has lost control over large portions of territory that the Iraqi Security Forces and Kurdish Peshmerga are incapable of retaking without significant foreign support. The Sunni Arabs of Iraq and Syria are the decisive human terrain. Al-Qaeda and similar groups can only flourish in distressed Sunni communities. Any strategy to counter al-Qaeda requires working with these communities, as the U.S. and the Iraqi government did during the Awakening in 2007. Having neglected Iraq and Syria, the U.S. currently lacks the basic intelligence and contextual understanding to build a strategy. The U.S. must adopt an iterative approach that tests assumptions, enriches understanding, builds partnerships with willing Sunni Arabs, and sets conditions for more decisive operations.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Islam
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Syria

719. Foreign Fighters in Syria

Author:: Richard Barrett
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: Over 12,000 fighters from at least 81 countries have joined the civil war in Syria, and the numbers continue to grow. Around 2,500 are from Western countries, including most members of the European Union, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. There are also several hundred from Russia. But the great majority are from the Arab World. Most are fighting with rebel groups, and increasingly with the most extreme among them; but many are also fighting with the Government, or with ethnic or faith communities that are trying to protect themselves from both sides. A lot are young, often teenagers, and a fair percentage of those arriving from non-Muslim majority countries are converts to Islam. These and others who share their faith commonly express their motivation as a religious obligation to protect fellow Muslims from attack. This sense of duty is captured by their loose use of the word 'jihad'.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Canada, Arabia, Australia, Syria, and New Zealand

720. The "Home Game" Counting Violent Extremism within NATO

Author:: Jacqueline Page
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: As the complex global security environment faced by NATO members continues to evolve in the coming years, terrorism – waged by actors both in and outside of their borders – will remain a vexing challenge. For over a decade, NATO's counterterrorism strategy has been built on taking the fight abroad. Member nations have been intimately involved in this effort as contributors to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, to the Multi-National Force in Iraq and in a variety of smaller missions around the globe. In recent times, however, there has been growing attention to the threat posed by “homegrown” terrorism and foreign fighters returning from Syria and elsewhere to their home countries throughout the Euro-Atlantic area.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and International Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

721. Five Long-Term Challenges for NATO beyond the Ukraine Crisis

Author:: Karl-Heinz Kamp
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Moscow's aggression against Ukraine has truly been a “game changer” for the Atlantic Alliance. Its implications for NATO's further evolution can hardly be over-estimated and after the likely shoot-down of a Malaysian civil aircraft over Ukrainian territory, controlled by pro-Russian rebels, the situation is even more unpredictable. Even if the catastrophe has put heavy political pressure on President Putin to reduce Russian involvement in Ukraine, Moscow is still not likely to revert the annexation of the Crimean peninsula. As a result, the crisis will dominate the international security debate for a long time to come. Thus, signs of resolve directed at Russia, measures to reassure the NATO members in Eastern Europe and indications of further cooperation with Ukraine will rank very high on the agenda of the NATO summit in Wales in September 2014. With the draw-down of the operation in Afghanistan, some Allies tend to see NATO's future role as primarily to preserve the territorial integrity of its member states. Hence, they argue in favour of a “back to basics” approach with an Alliance concentrated on its defence mission, according to Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Malaysia, Ukraine, Asia, and Moscow

722. NATO Enlargement and Russia: Die-Hard Myths and Real Dilemmas

Author:: Michael Ruhle
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: The crisis in Ukraine, which culminated in Russia's annexation of the Crimea, marks a new low in NATO-Russia relations. While this relationship had been deteriorating for quite some time, Moscow's role in the Ukraine crisis revealed a geopolitical agenda that caught many observers by surprise. In the course of just a few weeks Russia clearly emerged as a revisionist power, behaving in a manner reminiscent of the "predatory nation-states from the 19th century" and changing borders by force in order to deny a neighbouring country the choice to determine its own alignments.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, and Moscow

723. Cold War Déjà Vu? NATO, Russia and the Ukraine Crisis

Author:: Roger McDermott, Brooke Smith-Windsor, and Heidi Reisinger
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Russia's behaviour in the Ukrainian crisis has been described by some as giving rise to “the most dangerous situation in East-West relations since the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968.” For one, NATO's recently retired Supreme Allied Commander has called for immediate action in response. This could include, for example, bringing the NATO Response Force – a sea, air, land, special forces capability – to a higher state of alert, and sailing NATO maritime forces into the Black Sea.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

724. Ukraine's Euromaidan: Questions from the (R)evolution

Author:: Hanna Shelest
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: The pictures of Kyiv on fire in early 2014 have attracted attention of the world's media, with Molotov cocktails, barricades and injured journalists making headlines. This is in sharp contrast to the previous two months, when hundreds of thousands of people were coming every Sunday to the main square – Maidan Nezalezhnosti – in peaceful protest.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Social Movement
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

725. Does Russia Matter? Purely Political Relations Are Not Enough in Operational Times

Author:: Heidi Reisinger
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: On 27 January 2014, the NATO Defense College Research Division hosted its Russia Roundtable, where international experts from various research institutions meet senior practitioners from the International Staff and International Military Staff from NATO HQ.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

726. Distinguishing Acts of War in Cyberspace: Assessment Criteria, Policy Considerations, and Response Implications

Author:: Jeffery L. Caton
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The monograph is comprised of four main sections: Characterization. This section provides the notional foundation necessary to avoid any devolution of the analysis to mere semantic arguments. It presents how cyberspace is defined and characterized for this discussion, as well as how this compares to existing concepts of the traditional domains of land, sea, air, and space. Also, it identifies some of the unique technical challenges that the cyberspace domain may introduce into the process of distinguishing acts of war. Assessment Criteria. This section explores the de jure and the de facto issues involved with assaying cyber incidents to determine if they represent aggression and possible use of force; and, if so, to what degree? It reviews the traditional legal frameworks surrounding military action to include the United Nations (UN) Charter and the Law of Armed Conflict. It also examines how these compare to the recently published Tallinn Manual on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Warfare. From these sources, it proposes a cyberspace incident assessment methodology. Policy Considerations. Having identified viable criteria to aid with the assessment of cyber-space incidents, this section looks at the policy considerations associated with applying such principles. First, it examines the relevant U.S. strategies; next, it investigates the strategies of other key countries and international organizations and how they compare to U.S. tenets; and finally, it evaluates how nonstate actors may affect U.S. deliberations. Courses of Action. This section examines the influences that course of action development and implementation may have on the assessment of cyberspace incidents. It first looks at the President's role as the primary decisionmaker in U.S. national matters regarding cyber-space. It then surveys key influences affecting subordinate decisionmakers and their staffs that may be advising the Commander-in-Chief: reliable situational awareness, global and domestic environment considerations, and options and their related risks and potential consequences.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Intelligence, Science and Technology, and War
Political Geography:: United States and United Nations

727. United States-Gulf Cooperation Council Security Coopeeration in a Multipolar World

Author:: Mohammed El-Katiri
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: For the United States, the Arabian Gulf region remains one of the most geostrategically important locations in the world. Home to over half of the world's oil reserves and nearly a third of its natural gas, the Gulf states continue to supply world markets with an important share of their energy supplies. Continuing to be one of the world's largest regional suppliers of energy and holding much of the world's spare capacity in crude oil production makes the region central to the stability of the global oil market.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

728. After the Spring: Reforming Arab Armies

Author:: Florence Gaub
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The Arab Spring had a military dimension in both its targets—regimes with a military background—and its outcomes. Where the armed forces in their entirety or partially sided with the protesters regime change succeeded; where they did not, it failed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

729. Turkey's New Regional Security Role: Implications for the United States

Author:: Richard Weitz
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Until a few years ago, the relationship between Washington, DC, and Ankara, Turkey, was perennially troubled and occasionally terrible. Turks strongly opposed the U.S. 2003 invasion of Iraq and have subsequently complained that the Pentagon was allowing Iraqi Kurds too much autonomy, leading to deteriorating security along the Iraq-Turkey border. Disagreements over how to respond to Iran's nuclear program, U.S. suspicions regarding Turkey's outreach efforts to Iran and Syria, and differences over Armenia, Palestinians, and the Black Sea further strained ties and contributed to further anti Americanism in Turkey. Now Turkey is seen as responding to its local challenges by moving closer to the West, leading to the advent of a “Golden Era” in Turkish U.S. relations. Barack Obama has called the U.S.-Turkish relationship a “model partnership” and Turkey “a critical ally.” Explanations abound as to why U.S.-Turkey ties have improved during the last few years. The U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq removed a source of tension and gave Turkey a greater incentive to cooperate with Washington to influence developments in Iraq. Furthermore, the Arab Awakening led both countries to partner in support of the positive agenda of promoting democracy and security in the Middle East. Americans and Turks both want to see democratic secular governments in the region rather than religiously sanctioned authoritarian ones. Setbacks in Turkey's reconciliation efforts with Syria, Iran, and other countries led Ankara to realize that having good relations with the United States helps it achieve core goals in the Middle East and beyond. Even though Turkey's role as a provider of security and stability in the region is weakened as a result of the recent developments in Syria and the ensuing negative consequences in its relations to other countries, Turkey has the capacity to recover and resume its position. Partnering with the United States is not always ideal, but recent setbacks have persuaded Turkey's leaders that they need to backstop their new economic strength and cultural attractiveness with the kind of hard power that is most readily available to the United States. For a partnership between Turkey and the United States to endure, however, Turkey must adopt more of a collective transatlantic perspective, crack down harder on terrorist activities, and resolve a domestic democratic deficit. At the same time, Europeans should show more flexibility meeting Turkey's security concerns regarding the European Union, while the United States should adopt a more proactive policy toward resolving potential sources of tensions between Ankara and Washington that could significantly worsen at any time.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Turkey, and Middle East

730. A New Type of Great Power Relationship between the United States and China: The Military Dimension

Author:: Geoffrey Till
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The relative rise of China is likely to lead a major shift in the world's strategic architecture, which the United States will need to accommodate. For the outcome to be generally beneficial, China needs to be dissuaded from hegemonic aspirations and retained as a cooperative partner in the world system. This will require a range of potentially conflicting thrusts in U.S. policy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Emerging Markets, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and East Asia

731. Russia and the Caspian Sea: Projecting Power or Competing for Influence?

Author:: Tracey German
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: This monograph examines Russia's policy toward the Caspian Sea region as Moscow attempts to counterbalance growing American involvement within what it perceives to be its zone of privileged interest, focusing on the recent expansion of the Caspian Flotilla and the rationale behind it. Moscow has sought to counterbalance the growing involvement of other actors in the region, which has led to rising tension between Russia and its southern neighbors. The primary objectives of the research are to examine Russian perceptions of threat and security in the Caspian region and assess the implications for other actors. This monograph analyzes the drivers of the increasing competition for influence, focusing on developments within the energy sector, and assess the implications of Russia's consolidation of its dominance for security and stability in the region. This issue is important because a clear understanding of Russian strategic thinking and threat perception in the Caspian Sea is vital in order to facilitate effective U.S. policy in the wider Caucasus and Central Asian region.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: Russia and Central Asia

732. Strategic Implications of the Evolving Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Author:: Andrew Monaghan and Henry Plater-Zyberk
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) and U.S. Army War College (USAWC) Press publications enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose classified information, jeopardize operations security, or misrepresent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers them to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the interest of furthering debate on key issues. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, China, and East Asia

733. Revival of Political Islam in the Aftermath of Arab Uprisings: Implications for the Region and Beyond

Author:: Mohammed El-Katiri
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: As part of the radical political changes that have affected a number of Arab countries over the past 4 years, the toppling of regimes and the organization of the first fair and free elections in several Arab states have allowed Islamist parties to rise to power. This highly visible political trend has caused mixed reactions, both within these countries and internationally. Prior to the Arab Spring, most countries in the region banned Islamist movements from forming political parties. For decades, members of such movements were jailed, tortured, and exiled from their home countries. Even in those states where Islamist political parties were allowed, they had limited freedom and were under the scrutiny of the regimes, as was, for example, the Moroccan Justice and Development Party.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

734. European Missile Defense and Russia

Author:: Andrew Monaghan and Keir Giles
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: When U.S. President Barack Obama cancelled a scheduled September 2013 summit meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, “lack of progress on issues such as missile defense” was cited as the primary justification. Despite widespread and well founded assumption that the real trigger for the cancellation was the Russian decision to offer temporary asylum to Edward Snowden, the citing of missile defense was indicative. The comment marked one of the periodic plateaus of mutual frustration between the United States and Russia over U.S. attitudes to missile defense capability, stemming from a continued failure to achieve meaningful dialogue over U.S. plans and Russian fears.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, and Europe

735. Operational Reservations: Considerations for a Total Army Force

Author:: John D. Ellis and Laura McKnight Mackenzie
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: As the Army Reserve Components—the Army Reserve and the Army National Guard—assume an “operational” mission as the force drawdowns in over seas contingency operations occur, the Army senior military and civilian leadership should consider the ramifications and realities of such a mission in what is expected to be a relatively peaceful time. This monograph explores some of the considerations regarding the implementation of the Army Total Force Policy, identifies potential obstacles, and makes recommendations to better engage the “three Armies” in a successful and meaningful reform effort. Throughout, the authors call for significant cultural shifts in thinking about how the Reserve Components are used and integrated into a Total Force.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War

736. 2014-15 Key Strategic Issues List

Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: How can the Army prepare, train, and retain leaders, both uniformed and civilian, with the necessary multifaceted experience to take on a broad range of missions and roles? What is the best way to prepare such leaders to succeed in a world of change, complexity, and uncertainty? (POC: Dr. Don Snider, SSI, don.m.snider.vol@mail.mil , 717-245-3142).
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Governance

737. Soldiers of Misfortune?

Author:: Thomas R. Mockaiti
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Private contractors have become an essential but highly problematic element in the U.S. military's total force structure. The Army in particular relies heavily on contractors to perform duties that free up Soldiers for combat roles. The vast majority of these civilian employees provide logistical and technical support. They build facilities, do laundry, and staff dining halls on U.S. bases at home and abroad. While some of these contractors have been involved in issues of waste, fraud, and abuse, these issues do not have a significant Effect on the conduct of contingency operations, especially counterinsurgency (COIN) campaigns.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, and Arabia

738. The Future of American Landpower: Does Forward Presence Still Matter? The Case of the Army in the Pacific

Author:: John R. Deni
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The time has come for a reappraisal of the U.S. Army's forward presence in East Asia, given the significantly changed strategic context and the extraordinarily high, recurring costs of deploying U.S. Army forces from the 50 states for increasingly important security cooperation activities across the Indo-Asia-Pacific theater. For economic, political, diplomatic, and military reasons, the Indo-Asia-Pacific theater continues to grow in importance to the United States. As part of a broad, interagency, multifaceted approach, the U.S. military plays a critical role in the rebalancing effort now underway. The U.S. Army in particular has a special role to play in bolstering the defense of allies and the deterrence of aggression, promoting regional security and stability, and ameliorating the growing U.S.-China security dilemma.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: United States, East Asia, Asia, and Australia

739. China's Global Agricultural Strategy: An Open System to Safeguard the Country's Food Security

Author:: Zhang Hongzhou and Cheng Guoqiang
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: National food security will continue to be the top strategic issue confronting Chinese policymakers. In the next two decades of rapid income growth, China's total demand for agricultural products will increase in the face of diminishing water and land resources, and the task of feeding the 1.3 billion Chinese people will be even more challenging. The authors suggest that a global agricultural strategy is the strategic choice for China because it enables China to safeguard national food security and at the same time, tackle its rising domestic demand for agricultural resources in the face of environmental pressures.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Development, Emerging Markets, and Food
Political Geography:: East Asia

740. Hidden Hunger in South Africa: The faces of hunger and malnutrition in a food-secure nation

Author:: Yared Teka Tsegay, Masiiwa Rusare, and Rashmi Mistry
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: South Africa is considered a 'food-secure' nation, producing enough calories to adequately feed every one of its 53 million people. However, the reality is that, despite some progress since the birth of democracy in 1994, one in four people currently suffers hunger on a regular basis and more than half of the population live in such precarious circumstances that they are at risk of going hungry.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Poverty, and Food
Political Geography:: South Africa

741. The Islamic State

Author:: Richard Barrett
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The self-styled Islamic State is an accident of history, emerging from multiple social, political and economic tensions in the Middle East and beyond. It has challenged the territorial divisions imposed on the region following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire by carving out for itself a large area of territory. But ultimately, its impact will flow as much from its challenge to established concepts of government, national sovereignty, and national identity. The Islamic State is most notable for the violence with which it asserts control, but its ruthless tactics will likely prevent the group from ruling effectively and building broader support beyond the front line fighters who protect its security and the authoritarian killers who patrol its streets.
Topic:: Security, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

742. Ending Libya's Civil War: Reconciling Politics, Rebuilding Security

Author:: Frederic M. Wehrey
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: More than three years after the fall of strongman Muammar Qaddafi, Libya is in the midst of a bitter civil war rooted in a balance of weakness between the country's political factions and armed groups. With a domestic landscape torn apart by competing claims to power and with interference from regional actors serving to entrench divides, restoring stability in Libya and building a unified security structure will be difficult if not impossible without broad-based political reconciliation.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, and Governance
Political Geography:: Libya, Arabia, and North Africa

743. New Report Examines East Africa and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development

Author:: Solomon Dersso
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), composed of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda with its secretariat headquartered in Djibouti, covers northeast Africa, a region continuing to experience major changes, arguably more than any other part of the continent. This is the only region of Africa where colonially drawn borders have been redrawn. In contrast to other regions of Africa, this is also where the prospect of further redrawing of borders—with Somaliland seeking international recognition as a separate state—remains a real possibility.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Economics, Environment, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:: Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan

744. Nigeria's Dangerous 2015 Elections: Limiting the Violence

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Nigeria's presidential, parliamentary and state gubernatorial and assembly elections, scheduled for February 2015, will be more contentious than usual. Tensions within and between the two major political parties, competing claims to the presidency between northern and Niger Delta politicians and along religious lines, the grim radical Islamist Boko Haram insurgency and increasing communal violence in several northern states, along with inadequate preparations by the electoral commission and apparent bias by security agencies, suggest the country is heading toward a very volatile and vicious electoral contest. If this violent trend continues, and particularly if the vote is close, marred or followed by widespread violence, it would deepen Nigeria's already grave security and governance crises. The government, its agencies and all other national figures must work urgently to ensure that the vote is not conducted in an explosive situation as this could further destabilise the country.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Ethnic Government, Governance, Sectarian violence, and Self Determination
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

745. The Rising Terrorist Threat in Tanzania: Domestic Islamist Militancy and Regional Threats

Author:: Andre LeSage
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Despite its reputation for peace and stability in a troubled region, the East African country of Tanzania is experiencing a rising number of militant Islamist attacks that have targeted local Christian leaders and foreign tourists, as well as popular bars and restaurants. These attacks, which began in 2012, rarely make the headlines of international media. However, they should serve as a wake-up call for U.S. policymakers to increase short-term engagement with Tanzanian officials and support for Tanzanian security agencies to preempt the emergence of a more significant threat to U.S. and international interests in East Africa.
Topic:: Security, Islam, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and Tanzania

746. Korean Unification in a New Era

Author:: Victor D. Cha
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: As a result of a speech delivered by Republic of Korea (ROK) president Park Geun- hye in Dresden, Germany, on March 28, 2014, the topic of unification of the Korean peninsula has been on the minds of many. This is, of course, not the first time that unification has been in the news. During the Cold War era, unification was defined as the absolute military victory of one side over the other. In Korean, this was known as “songgong t'ongil” or “p'ukch'in t'ongil” (“march north” or “unification by force”). In political science literature influenced by the European experience, it was defined as the perfect integration of the two countries. After the reunification of Germany on October 3, 1990, unification was seen as the economic and political absorption of one side by the other. And yet at other times, it was defined, by both North and South Korea, as the imperfect operation of one country, two systems. For a decade during the period of “sunshine” policy, 1997–2007, unification was defined as something to be avoided for generations. It was framed as an outcome that was too difficult to contemplate, too dangerous to suggest, and too expensive to afford.
Topic:: Security, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: South Korea, North Korea, and Germany

747. A Key Update: Afghan Forces on the Edge of Transition: Sharply Contradictory Data on Levels of Violence

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman, Michael Peacock, and Aaron Lin
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Data on Afghan Surge show had little or no lasting impact. NATO/ISAF stopped all meaningful reporting on security trends after EIA fiasco. No maps or assessments of insurgent control or influence versus limited dataf 10 worst areas of tactical encounters. No maps or assessments of areas of effective government control and support and areas where government is not present or lacks support. Shift from direct clashes to high profile and political attacks makes it impossible to assess situation using past metrics, but HPAs sharply up. UN casualty data and State Department START data on terrorism highly negative. No reason for insurgents to engage NATO/ISAF or ANSF on unfavorable terms before combat NATO/ISAF forces are gone.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

748. Federated Defense in Asia

Author:: Michael J. Green, Kathleen H. Hicks, and Zack Cooper
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The United States has long emphasized the desirability of working with allies and partners to meet pressing security challenges. Indeed, many of our most vexing security concerns—from terrorism to cyber attacks—are best met with concerted multilateral responses. At a time when the United States and many of its allies and partners are reluctant to increase defense and security spending, working together is paramount. This is perhaps most evident in Asia, where present and potential future threats to security and prosperity are high and shared interests are substantial.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, and Intelligence
Political Geography:: United States and Asia

749. The Future of Multilateral Security Dialogue in the Mediterranean: Lessons Learnt, Opportunities and Choices

Author:: Eduard Soler i Lecha
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The Mediterranean is currently facing a number of challenges, ranging from political instability and intra-state conflicts to economic and social disparities and uncontrolled pockets of criminality. Although the conceptualisation of the Mediterranean as a region is often disputed, this is a space where initiatives for dialogue, cooperation and integration have proliferated in the last two decades as an attempt to tackle some of those challenges either regionally or multilaterally in cooperation with external partners. This paper overviews the existing initiatives, analyses why some previous attempts have failed and examines the elements of the new context that could favour or hinder further attempts to revive regional dialogue and integration, by identifying potential goals and relevant actors to be involved.
Topic:: Security

750. Iranian Aid to Fighters in the Gulf Peninsula

Author:: Lori Plotkin Boghardt
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A number of U.S. interests could be served by expanding support to strategic Gulf partners in their efforts to curb Iranian aid to local fighters. On March 6, Bahrain's foreign minister told the UN Human Rights Council that the ongoing violence in his country "is directly supported by elements of the Islamic Republic of Iran." The statement does not accurately explain all political violence in Bahrain, but not every claim of Iranian support for violence should be assumed to represent part of a government propaganda campaign. U.S. intelligence assesses that Iran is in fact providing arms and more to Bahraini and other fighters in the Arabian Peninsula, and Washington should increase support to important Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) partners to curb it.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, and United Nations

751. U.S. Strategic Dialogues with Morocco and Algeria: Take Two

Author:: Vish Sakthivel
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Secretary Kerry's visit comes amid Morocco's efforts to expand its regional influence and an upcoming vote in Algeria. Next week, Secretary of State John Kerry will head to Rabat and Algiers to reconvene the Strategic Dialogues that were postponed in November when he had to travel to Geneva for urgent Iran negotiations. While the broader themes to be discussed remain the same, certain developments in the two countries' diplomatic positioning will likewise inform the talks.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Morocco

752. Morocco's Approach to Countering Violent Extremism

Author:: Mohamed Salah Tamek
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Morocco has had a largely successful record of countering violent extremism within its borders, including the dismantling of numerous cells linked to al-Qaeda core or its North African offshoot, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Thousands of suspects have been arrested for perpetrating assassinations, assaults, and robberies; huge caches of heavy weapons have been confiscated; and authorities have foiled many attempts to attack security services, tourist attractions, diplomatic delegations, and places of worship for Christians and Jews. In addition, two channels of recruitment for jihadists in Mali were dismantled in late 2012, and two months ago, Moroccan and Spanish security forces jointly dismantled a transnational cell recruiting fighters for Syria and Mali.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Syria, Morocco, and Northern Mali

753. Legality in Cyberspace: An Adversary View

Author:: Andrew Monaghan and Keir Giles
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The United States and its allies are in general agreement on the legal status of conflict in cyberspace. Although key principles remain unresolved, such as what precisely constitutes an armed attack or use of force in cyberspace, overall there is a broad legal consensus among Euro-Atlantic nations that existing international law and international commitments are sufficient to regulate cyber conflict.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, and North America

754. The Resurgence of Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq

Author:: Azeem Ibrahim
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The Syrian civil war has allowed al-Qaeda to recover from its setbacks up to 2010. Its main affiliate in the region seems to be testing a new strategy of collaboration with other Salafist-Jihadist groups and a less brutal implementation of Sharia law in areas it controls. In combination, this might allow the Al Nusrah Front to carve out the sort of territorial control of a region (or state) that al-Qaeda has sought ever since its eviction from Afghanistan. On the other hand, Syria has also seen a civil war between two al-Qaeda inspired factions (Al Nusrah and the Iraq based Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant [ISIS]) and indicates there are limits to its ability to cooperate with other anti-Assad factions and gain popular appeal. The extent that the Syrian civil war offers the means for al-Qaeda to recover from its earlier defeats will determine whether the organization has a future, or if it will become simply an ideology and label adopted by various Islamist movements fighting their own separate struggles.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

755. Climate Change and EU Security Policy: An Unmet Challenge

Author:: Richard Youngs
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Climate change plays an increasingly important role in European security debates. The European Union (EU) has begun to develop "climate security" strategies that address the strategic and political impacts of climate change. But policymakers are uncertain about how to shape immediate policy responses, and efforts to address various climate-related threats have fallen short. The EU needs to develop a more comprehensive strategy that responds to and prepares for climate-induced geopolitical instability.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe

756. A Saudi Arabian Defense Doctrine: Mapping the expanded force structure the Kingdom needs to lead the Arab world, stabilize the region, and meet its global responsibilities

Author:: Nawaf Obaid
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: This proposal for a Saudi Arabian Defense Doctrine (SDD) hopes to initiate an essential internal reform effort that responds to the shifting demands of today and the potential threats of tomorrow. In the last decade, the world has watched as regime changes, revolutions, and sectarian strife transformed the Middle East into an unrecognizable political arena plagued by instability, inefficiency, and failing states. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)—the Arab world's central power and last remaining major Arab heavyweight on the international scene—has emerged as the ipso facto leader responsible for regional stability and development.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

757. The Baluch insurgency: linking Iran to Pakistan

Author:: Zia Ur Rehman
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The Sistan and Baluchistan Province of Iran has long been associated with instability and armed conflict. The two million largely Sunni Muslim Baluch living in the province have suffered sustained racist persecution and discrimination in predominantly Shia and Persian-speaking Iran. Analysts claim that lack of development and cultural and religious repression in Sistan and Baluchistan have encouraged popular support for the insurgency among the Baluch community. Iran claims that the main bases of the two main Baluch insurgents groups, Jundullah and Jaish-ul Adl, are in Pakistan's Baluchistan Province, which shares a 1,165-kilometre border with Iran. Iranian forces are increasingly carrying out cross-border attacks against these groups, straining relations between Iran and Pakistan and possibly fuelling sectarian violence in both countries. Pakistan is battling its own Baluch separatist insurgency. It is feared that the mistreatment of the Baluch community on both sides of the border could lead to an alliance between religiously motivated anti-Iranian Sunni militant groups and the various secular Pakistani Baluch separatist groups.Iranian Baluch militants groups are not only causing an increasing internal security crisis in Iran, but are also threatening to become the key to the survival of the Taliban on the Iran-Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
Topic:: Security, Insurgency, Bilateral Relations, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran

758. Why do Youth Join Boko Haram?

Author:: Freedom C. Onuoha
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Since Nigeria's return to democracy in May 1999, armed nonstate groups have significantly undermined the country's internal security environment, largely using young men as foot soldiers. Among these groups, Boko Haram has grown to become a serious national, regional, and international concern. Estimates of the death toll from Boko Haram attacks since 2009 range as high as ten thousand fatalities. With Boko Haram and other groups seemingly gaining in strength, questions arise as to why young men join them in the first place and what the government and other actors can do to prevent it. Surveys, interviews, and focus groups conducted in Nigeria in 2013 suggest that poverty, unemployment, illiteracy, and weak family structures make or contribute to making young men vulnerable to radicalization. Itinerant preachers capitalize on the situation by preaching an extreme version of religious teachings and conveying a narrative of the government as weak and corrupt. Armed groups such as Boko Haram can then recruit and train youth for activities ranging from errand running to suicide bombings. To weaken the armed groups' abilities to radicalize and recruit young men, the Nigerian government at all levels, perhaps with support from interested international actors, could institute monitoring and regulation of religious preaching; strengthen education, job training, and job creation programs; design robust programs to aid destitute children; promote peace education; and embark on an anticorruption campaign. Addressing the conditions that make it possible for insurgents to recruit young men in Nigeria can significantly diminish the strength of the insurgency, if not eliminate it altogether.
Topic:: Security, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

759. The Rahmon Phenomenon: New Challenges for Tajikistan's Long-Standing President

Author:: Alexey Malashenko and Aziz Niyazi
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Emomali Rahmon's reelection as president of Tajikistan in 2013 testifies to his regime's stability and its capacity for self-preservation. He now faces a number of complex tasks, which include undertaking economic reforms, counteracting religious smism, and resolving conflicts with neighboring countries. It is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain a high degree of stability under these conditions.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Religion, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Tajikistan

760. The Economics of Egypt's Rising Authoritarian Order

Author:: Amr Adly
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Egypt's economy is in crisis as the new military-backed regime seeks to reestablish its authority. Fiscal restructuring and austerity measures are necessary to spur economic recovery, but they may be politically difficult to pass at this time. The new regime, therefore, will have to broaden its base and forge a more inclusive coalition of supporters in order to stabilize Egypt, retain power, and restore economic growth.
Topic:: Security and Economics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt

761. Iran's Afghan Shiite Fighters in Syria

Author:: Phillip Smyth
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Afghan Shiite militants have been fighting on the Assad regime's side for some time, and the scope and strategic purpose of Iran's involvement is becoming increasingly clear.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, and Middle East

762. Questions about the Geopolitics of Climate Engineering

Author:: Lee Lane
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: The U.S. intelligence community and other federal agencies have commissioned the National Academies of Science (NAS) to study climate engineering. The term 'climate engineering' (CE) refers to a family of concepts that might be used to curtail global warming. In 2013, the NAS assembled an expert panel to study the subject. The panel plans to issue a report in the fall of 2014.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Intelligence, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

763. Advancing Military Professionalism in Africa

Author:: Emile Ouédraogo
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Vivid examples of weak military professionalism in Africa are regularly evident in news accounts of instability on the continent. Militaries collapsing in the face of attacks by irregular forces, coups, mutinies, looting, human rights abuses against civilian populations, corruption, and engagement in illicit trafficking activities are widespread. This pattern persists decades after the end of colonialism, despite billions of dollars of security sector assistance and longstanding rhetoric on the need to strengthen civil-military relations on the continent. The costs for not having established strong professional militaries are high: persistent instability, chronic poverty, deterred investment, and stunted democratization.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Human Rights, and Post Colonialism
Political Geography:: Africa

764. India and Pakistan: The Opportunity Cost of Conflict

Author:: Shuja Nawaz and Mohan Guruswamy
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: India and Pakistan, born out of a single British-ruled entity in 1947, have continued an implacable rivalry marked by periodic wars and hostilities as well as through proxies. This unending conflict has led them to invest heavily in their militaries and even to choose nuclear weaponry as a deterrence on the part of Pakistan toward India and on India's part toward both Pakistan and China. Although there have been occasional moves toward confidence building measures and most recently toward more open borders for trade, deep mistrust and suspicion mark this sibling rivalry. Their mutual fears have fuelled an arms race, even though increasingly civil society actors now appear to favor rapprochement and some sort of an entente. The question is whether these new trends will help diminish the military spending on both sides.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, India, Asia, and Southeast Asia

765. The Gulf Rising: Defense Industrialization in Saudi Arabia and the UAE

Author:: Bilal Y. Saab
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Because of their sizeable financial resources, close relations with Washington, and privileged access to the top transatlantic defense companies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are in a unique position to explore opportunities and make important strides in the military-industrial domain that other countries can simply ill-afford to make. Moreover, over the past decade, globalization and the information technology (IT) revolution in military affairs (RMA) have opened up the international defense market and made it less exclusive, allowing Saudi Arabia and the UAE to overcome some of the key scientific and technological challenges that accompany the building and sustaining of indigenous defense industries.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Saudi Arabia

766. Climate and Environmental Change: Views from Life in a Time of Food Price Volatility

Author:: Alexandra Wanjiku Kelbert
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: How are rapid recent food price changes linked to climate and environmental change? How do people who are vulnerable to these changes view these links? This note explores the views of people living on low and precarious incomes on these connections, based on research designed to explore experiences of food price volatility in 2012, through qualitative research in 23 research sites in 10 countries. The research was not specifically designed to study perceptions of climate and environmental change; these views are collected here because they offer interesting, relatively unmediated insights into how people perceive the causal connections between their food security and environment across varied social and ecological settings.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, and Food

767. Inequality in South Africa: A two part document on the current understanding and dimensions of inequality in health, gender and livelihoods

Author:: Nicola Deghaye, Tamlyn McKenzie, and Petronella Chirawu
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Recognising inequality is at the heart of the South African 'development problem', Oxfam commissioned the Health Economics and HIV and AIDS Research Division (HEARD) to produce this report, which is divided into two parts, to enable an understanding of the dimensions of inequality in South Africa and to provide Oxfam with a set of basic measures against which it could measure its success in dealing with inequality.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, Health, and Food
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

768. NORDEFCO and NATO: "Smart Defence" in the North?

Author:: Ann-Sofie Dahl
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Weekly Swedish-Finnish-Norwegian air defence training in the very north of Scandinavia; Swedish-Danish cross border exercises in the southern part of the region; Swedish-Finnish maritime patrolling in the Baltic Sea; and, in February 2014, Swedish and Finnish participation in the Iceland Air Meet exercise with NATO, led by Norway. These are only a few examples of Nordic Defence Cooperation, or NORDEFCO, the military acronym used to describe this multifaceted pattern of practical military training and cooperation across borders and security doctrines in the northernmost corner of Europe.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe, Finland, Norway, and Sweden

769. "Resetting" AU-NATO relations: from ad hoc military-technical cooperation to strategic partnership

Author:: Mehari Taddele Maru
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: In the speech delivered on 19 September 2013 focused on the future of NATO, Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen listed the Alliance's top three priorities. Having identified the first two (focusing on further building NATO's capabilities, and the need to achieve a better balance of responsibility between North America and Europe), he pointedly focused on the third priority as the need to "...develop a truly global perspective of security, and the partnerships to match the perspective."
Topic:: Security, NATO, Globalization, International Cooperation, and Reform
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

770. Semantics Matter NATO, Cyberspace and Future Threats

Author:: Christine Hegenbart
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Promoted by the mass media, catastrophic cyber scenarios are omnipresent: "Cyber-warfare: Hype and fear", "Cyber-security: War on terabytes" and "Escalating cyber-attacks — It's about time" are just some of the recent headlines in The Economist for prominent articles on cyber topics. The military perspective emerges explicitly from the choice of wording, suggesting a major security challenge for NATO.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Terrorism, and Communications

771. Risks of Intelligence Pathologies in South Korea

Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: A failure of intelligence on the Korean peninsula-the site of the world's highest concentration of military personnel with a history of fraught, sometimes violent, sabre-rattling-could have catastrophic consequences. Yet the South Korean intelligence community has revealed its susceptibility to three types of pathologies-intelligence failure, the politicisation of intelligence, and intervention in domestic politics by intelligence agencies-which bring into stark relief the potential for grievous miscalculation and policy distortions when addressing the threat from North Korea. Moves by intelligence agencies to recover or bolster their reputations by compromising sensitive information have compounded the problem. Efforts are needed to reform the South's intelligence capacities, principally by depoliticising its agencies and ensuring adequate legislative and judicial oversight. Lawmakers and bureaucrats also need to fulfil their responsibilities to protect classified information and refrain from leaking sensitive intelligence for short-term personal political gains.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Intelligence, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and Sinai Peninsula

772. Responding to Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea

Author:: Patrice Sartre
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The Gulf of Guinea has become notorious for its violent conflicts and political instability. This insecurity has its origins in bad governance, corruption, and failures of social and economic development. Violent power struggles and competition for the control of economic assets periodically cause crises to flare up, and these tend to be persistent and widespread. The international community has worked to move countries in the region onto a stable trajectory. West Africa has also made efforts to develop a coordinated approach to the region's challenges through a common security architecture. Such subregional initiatives may ultimately prove most conducive to long-term stability.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, and Governance
Political Geography:: Africa

773. Before "DarkSeoul" Becomes "DestroySeoul"

Author:: Ye Ra Kim
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: Growing dependence on ever evolving information technology and continuous occurrence of cyber- attacks against nations demonstrate the need for solid security strategy in cyberspace. South Korea, a country keen to explore benefits brought by the Internet, has suffered a heavy blow from a series of North Korea's cyber-attacks in the past. This paper analyzes the 2013 March 20 cyber-attack against South Korea in detail and sheds light on the fast developing cyber capabilities of North Korea. The severity of the March 20 attack which simultaneously targeted major banks and broadcasters in the country spread panic through South Korea. The malware used in the attack was later nicknamed "DarkSeoul" because of the repetitive use of the term in the malware programming source. The attack illustrates the changing nature of the conflict on the Korean Peninsula, reflecting the need for a new concept of national security in which cyberforce plays a critical role.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

774. Middle East 2020: Shaped by or Shaper of Global Trends?

Author:: Mathew J. Burrows
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: With new crises sprouting almost on a daily basis in the Middle East, there is increasing interest in knowing the possible medium- and long-term consequences of the cascading developments in the region. This report attempts to think about the alternative futures possible in the Middle East over the next five to ten years. This is a shorter-term forecast than usual, but in the Middle East more deep-seated and structural factors are in flux than in most other regions. A longer-term forecast would allow for more optimism, but would be less useful for decision-makers who not only need a bird's eye view of where developments are headed but also a notion of the pressure points to effect positive change now.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: Middle East

775. The Role of the Informal Economy in Addressing Urban Food Insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Elizabeth Fraser, Malambo Moonga, and Johanna Wilkes
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is facing high rates of urbanization and increasing food insecurity. The informal food economy addresses food insecurity by providing access to affordable food and significant employment opportunities to the urban poor in SSA. The Committee on World Food Security should recognize the informal food economy as a critical governance issue. Different policy approaches need to be taken into account to address the diverse needs of the informal food economy, including the needs of "survivalist" traders, larger constrained enterprises and female vendors. Municipalities in SSA often have restricted budgets, which hinder their ability to appropriately govern and support the local informal food economy. Increases in municipal budgets to align with food security needs in urban Africa should be considered as decentralization continues across SSA.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Labor Issues, and Food
Political Geography:: Africa

776. Game of zones. The quest for influence in Europe's neighbourhood

Author:: Sven Biscop
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Russia's annexation of the Crimea and subsequent meddling in Ukraine does not constitute a game-changer. It is just a reminder that at least since the war with Georgia in 2008 Russia has been and still is playing the same game: a "game of zones",aimed at (re)establishing an exclusive sphere of influence. Many of us Europeans had forgotten that, or had pushed it to the back of our minds, preferring to believe that we were not engaged in a zero-sum game in our eastern neighbourhood.
Topic:: Security, Sovereignty, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Middle East

777. Pathways to Security Council Reform

Author:: Richard Gowan and Nora Gordon
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: In this paper, New York University's Center on International Cooperation (CIC) seeks to explore potential pathways to United Nations Security Council (UNSC) reform. We begin with an overview of the current context, which has been characterized by increasing international pressure for Security Council reform. The Council's abysmal performance in the Syrian crisis has fueled the mounting pressure for reform, which includes the French proposal to limit use of the veto and Saudi Arabia's rejection of a non-permanent seat. We then offer a brief history and analysis of previous reform attempts; an explanation of global perspectives on the issue of UNSC reform; background on the Intergovernmental Negotiations (IGN) on UNSC reform in New York; and an analysis of discussions on reform in and around the African Union.
Topic:: Security, International Security, and Reform
Political Geography:: Africa, New York, and Saudi Arabia

778. Governance Transfer by the Southern African Development Community (SADC). A B2 Case Study Report

Author:: Anna van der Vleuten
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:: As early as 1992, the Treaty of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) already included a commitment to human rights, democracy, and the rule of law as governance standards in its member states, but it was in 2001 that SADC significantly broadened its efforts at governance transfer. SADC focuses in particular on standards related to gender, (socioeconomic) human rights, and (electoral) democracy, which are promoted and protected through various instruments including military interventions and sanctions in the framework of security cooperation. While the rule of law and good governance have also gained a more prominent place on the agenda since 2001, standards and instruments are less developed. Overall, there is a significant gap between the prescription of standards and policies on the one hand and the implementation of measures on the other. The suspension of the SADC Tribunal in 2010 following its rulings on human rights issues clearly shows the limits of SADC as an active promoter vis-à-vis its member states.
Topic:: Security, Development, and Governance
Political Geography:: Africa

779. Reorienting U.S. Pakistan Strategy: From Af-Pak to Asia

Author:: Daniel S. Markey
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: After 9/11, the global fight against al-Qaeda and the related war in Afghanistan forced the United States to reassess its strategy in Pakistan. The exigencies of counterterrorism and counterinsurgency established Washington's primary goals and many of its specific policies. Now, however, the impending drawdown of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, along with significant U.S. successes in operations against al-Qaeda, require the United States to take a fresh look at its Pakistan strategy and to move beyond the "Af-Pak" era.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Development, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and India

780. Mali :réformer ou rechuter

Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Un an après l'intervention française, l'intégrité territoriale et l'ordre constitutionnel ont été rétablis au Mali. Mais la persistance des tensions intercommunautaires et de violences localisées témoigne d'une stabilisation encore précaire du Nord, alors que les forces françaises et onusiennes peinent à consolider leurs progrès en matière de sécurité. Les attentes à l'égard du président Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta sont immenses. Il doit à la fois élaborer un compromis sur le devenir du Nord et engager la réforme d'un Etat affaibli par la crise. Son gouvernement doit aller au-delà des déclarations d'intention et passer à l'action. Pour consolider la situation à court terme, il est tenté de renouer avec un système clientéliste qui a conduit les précédents régimes dans l'impasse. Le président ne peut certes pas tout réformer brusquement mais l'urgence de la stabilisation ne doit ni faire manquer l'occasion d'entamer une réforme profonde de la gouvernance ni occulter la nécessité d'un dialogue véritablement inclusif sur l'avenir du pays.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Islam, Post Colonialism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Africa

781. Sudan's Spreading Conf lict (III): The Limits of Darfur's Peace Process

Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The violence in Darfur's decade-old war spiked in 2013, as the mostly Arab militias initially armed by the government to contain the rebellion increasingly escaped Khartoum's control and fought each other. Recent fighting has displaced nearly half a million additional civilians – in all 3.2 million Darfurians need humanitarian help. The Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD) signed in Qatar in 2011 is largely unimplemented, notably because it was endorsed by factions with limited political and military influence, blocked by the government and suffered fading international support. The main insurgent groups remain active, have formed an alliance that goes beyond the region and increasingly assert a national agenda. If Darfur is to have durable peace, all parties to the country's multiple conflicts, supported by the international community, need to develop a more coherent means of addressing, in parallel, both local conflicts and nationwide stresses, the latter through a comprehensive national dialogue; eschew piecemeal approaches; embrace inclusive talks; and recommit to Sudan's unity.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, War, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Africa

782. Thomas Kuhn and international relations theory: Realism in 'crisis'

Author:: Peter Van Ness
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:: In 2012, the University of Chicago Press published a special fiftieth anniversary edition of Thomas Kuhn?s influential book, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Kuhn, who died of lung cancer in 1996, was a physicist trained at Harvard University and is best known for his work on the history and philosophy of science. His interpretation of the evolution of science and the concept of "paradigm change? have had a major impact on our understanding of intellectual life, both in the physical sciences and in the social sciences. This paper briefly reviews Kuhn?s approach, and then applies it to an analysis of the current state of International Relations theory in a critique of Realism. My argument is that Realism, as what Kuhn would call "normal science? in International Relations theory, is in crisis because of its inability to explain a growing number of anomalies, which in turn can be better explained by a different paradigm, Cooperative Security.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, International Cooperation, Politics, Science and Technology, Political Theory, and History
Political Geography:: United States and United Nations

783. In the Crossfire: Islamists' Travails in Tunisia

Author:: Anouar Boukhars
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Tunisia is struggling with insecurity, social tensions, and ideological divisions three years after President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali was ousted during a popular uprising. But the country is making progress on the path to democracy. Islamist and secular politicians have struck a potentially landmark agreement that could get Tunisia's democratic transition back on track. To solidify gains and ensure that a successful Tunisian experiment reverberates across the Arab world, socioeconomic struggles that fuel protests and radicalism must be confronted.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

784. Increasing Diversity in the Euro-Mediterranean Region?

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Contrary to what was previously thought, the Arab revolutions have not led to the democratization of the entire Southern Mediterranean region. In fact, the region is today more heterogeneous than before, with some countries heading towards democracy and others plunged into severe internal crisis. Old and new internal and external actors are also willing to gain influence and power amidst diverging conflicts of interests.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Democratization, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

785. Report of the Kick Off Meeting "The Arab Spring in Comparative Perspective"o

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: On the occasion of the Annual Summit of the Strategic Studies Network (Bangkok, 23-25 February 2014), several EuroMeSCo researchers participated in the kick off meeting of the Working Group “The Arab Spring in Comparative Perspective”. This group, lead by the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) will involve over 20 EuroMeSCo researchers, who will work throughout the year with the aim of publishing a joint volume on comparative perspectives of the transitions in the Arab world. The Working Group is structured around two main blocks: “Internal changes in transition processes: What priorities?” and “External actors and regional integration”. It consists of a total of 6 working packages, each of them lead by two EuroMeSCo researchers. The topics to be explored are: State building processes and reforms, security sector reform, the role of religion in transitional processes, socio-economic reforms, the role of the European Union in supporting democratic transitions in the Southern Mediterranean and regional integration.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, Politics, Religion, and Economies
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

786. Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Center of Arab Transitions

Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The workshop "Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Centre of Arab Transitions" focused on the analysis of the current phase of the democratic transition in Egypt, dominated by a high level of polarisation. It was organized by EuroMesco, the European Institute of the Meditereanan (IMed) and the Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), wit the support of the Spanish agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID). This was the last of a series of four workshops organised in the framework of a program to strengthen the capacities of think tanks and research institutes in Meditereanan countries, mainly in light of the current democratisation process and regional transformations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt

787. Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Centre of Arab Transitions

Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The workshop "Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Center of Arab Transitions" focused on the analysis of the current phase of the democractic transition in Egypt, dominated by a high level of polarisation. It was organised by EuroMeSco, the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and the Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), with the support of the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID). This was the last of a series of four workshops organised in the framework of a programme to strengthen the capacities of think tanks and research institutes in Mediterranean countries, mainly in light of the current democratisation processes and regional transformations.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, Politics, Religion, and Elections
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt

788. Assessing the People's Liberation Army in the Hu Jintao Era

Author:: Roy Kamphausen (ed.), David Lai, and Travis Tanner
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The 2012 PLA (People’s Liberation Army) conference took place at a time when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was making its leadership transition from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping. The conference discussion focused on the developments in China’s national security and in the PLA during the Hu Jintao Administration from 2002 to 2012. Key observations are presented in this volume. The most significant ones are Hu Jintao’s promulgation of the new Historic Missions for the PLA, and Hu’s complete handover of power to his successor. The former has turned on the green light for the PLA to go global. The latter is a milestone is the CCP’s institution building.
Topic:: Security, Communism, Politics, History, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: China

789. Promotion and Protection of the Rights of Children

Author:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: The report discusses specific, concrete, and targeted actions that can be taken within the framework of the UN’s Children and Armed Conflict agenda to put an end to and to prevent the recruitment and use of children by state actors and non-state armed groups, as well as to end and to prevent other grave violations against children. Recommendations in the report focus support mechanisms for the campaign to end the recruitment and use of children by government security forces by 2016; the role of partnerships in promoting the children and armed conflict agenda; and addressing other grave violations committed against children in situations of armed conflict, specifically attacks on schools and hospitals. The report also provides targeted recommendations for action to the Security Council and its Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict, the Secretary-General and his Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict, UN member states, regional and subregional organizations and arrangements, and donors. The report is the result of a workshop convened at Princeton University in December 2013 by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict, and the Permanent Mission of Liechtenstein to the UN.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Children, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

790. Mind the Gap: Regimes & Strengthening Radiological Security

Author:: Miles A. Pomper
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:: According to a new paper from CNS Senior Research Associate Miles A. Pomper, inadequate liability and insurance regimes mean that users of high-risk radiological sources have insufficient incentive to protect those sources from terrorists or substitute less risky alternatives. Such sources are used in medicine, oil and gas exploration, and industry, among other fields, and can be used in “dirty bombs” or other forms of radiological terrorism. Since the 9/11 attacks, governments, including the United States, have taken it upon themselves to institute emergency measures to improve source security, often using public funds. However, these measures are less than optimal and are expected to take many more decades. Moreover, even the United States—the lead country in spending on these efforts—routinely sacrifices radiological security to other budget priorities. Pomper therefore recommends two potential options to improve liability and insurance regimes governing radiological sources in order to incentivize users to reduce the risk of radiological terrorism.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Budget, Radiological Weapons, and Medicine
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

791. Sensitive to Conflict?: Development Cooperation and Peacebuilding in the Palestinian Context

Author:: Neda Noraie-Kia
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:: Development organisations face numerous challenges in the context of violent conflict. Development cooperation has to be sensitive to conflict in order to be effective and do no harm. PCIA as developed by Kenneth Bush is one approach among others to ensure conflict sensitivity for development and peacebuilding efforts. This working paper applies Bush’s concept of PCIA to the Palestinian case in order to analyse benefits, limitations and potential improvements of his approach. His specific method will be discussed critically based on a literature review and expert interviews conducted with practitioners from the most relevant state and multilateral development agencies. Considering the specific challenges in the Palestinian context this study aims to contribute to the debate on conflict sensitive development cooperation. The analysis of the Palestinian case eventually should help to identify gaps and potential fields for future research.
Topic:: Security, Development, Conflict, Borders, Peace, and Territory
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

792. Visions of Gulf Security

Author:: Mehran Kamrava, F. Gregory Gause III, Gary Sick, Rouzbeh Parsi, and Stéphane Lacroix
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: The turbulence in Gulf security politics today is difficult to miss: unusually sharp public splits in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), rising sectarian tensions, tough moves against the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist movements, and markedly harsh crackdowns on even minor forms of public dissent. Gulf elites are openly airing profound doubts about the future of the U.S. regional role, worries about blowback from Syria, and fears about the implications of a Western rapprochement with Iran. Regime efforts to insulate themselves from popular dissent have included potentially unsustainable economic commitments and self-defeating internal repression. Meanwhile, deep political divisions are disrupting the long-standing security partnership between Washington and the GCC states. How has the turbulence of the last three years affected security in the Gulf? Do new domestic, regional, or international trends fundamentally alter how the regimes, political movements, and people of the region grapple with challenges to their security? How new are these challenges, and how extraordinary the responses? What is gained, and what potentially distorted, by viewing these events through a security lens? Which assumptions in the academic literature about Gulf security have proven resilient, and which require rethinking? On March 9, 2014, POMEPS and Matteo Legrenzi at Ca’ Foscari University brought together more than a dozen scholars based in the Middle East, Europe, and the United States to Venice, Italy to look closely at the new – or not so new – questions about Gulf security. This should be the finest hour for the “regime security” perspective, which has been the dominant theoretical framework for understanding the region’s security politics in recent years. The regime security framework emerged to challenge the conventional Realist view of states primarily responding to external power and threat in their alliance and foreign policy choices. As Gregory Gause and many other scholars have effectively demonstrated, regimes faced threats to their own power and survival from within as well, and often prioritized those in their policy choices. Iran’s “threat” to Riyadh, for instance, had as much to do with its potential appeal to Saudi Shiites as it did with its pursuit of a nuclear arsenal. This perspective seems to offer considerable traction on the domestic and regional maneuverings of Gulf regimes in the last few years. While no GCC regimes fell in the face of popular protest, the Arab uprisings clearly intensified and sharpened those internal regime security concerns. And, as several of the memos in this collection observe, the responses by Gulf states to these concerns included both domestic security crackdowns and regional foreign policy initiatives. The coordinated campaigns against the Muslim Brotherhood across the Middle East by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as Stéphane Lacroix, David Roberts, and Guido Steinberg suggest, reflected this logic of shoring up domestic power through foreign policy activism. So did the financial and political support by wealthy Gulf monarchies for less well-endowed fellow monarchs across the region.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Gulf Nations

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS