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5501. ‘Mowing the grass’ in Gaza

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Because ending terrorism from Gaza is unrealistic, Israel has wisely adopted a strategy of attrition. If there is soon to be a large-scale ground operation, conquering the whole Strip should not be the goal.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

5502. From NORAD to NOR[A]D: The Future Evolution of North American Defence Co-operation

Author:
Andrea Charron and James Fergusson
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
The North American defence environment is in the process of a major transformation, occasioned by dramatic changes in the geostrategic/political landscape and the development of new generations of weapon systems. As a result, the requirements to deter, detect and defend North America from a variety of new threats are transforming. In this context, Canada and the United States, through the Permanent Joint Board of Defense (PJBD) established the Evolution of North American Defense (EvoNAD) study, and tasked its execution to the North American Aerospace Defense (NORAD) command. EvoNAD considers a long time horizon and has been broken into subcomponents reflecting six domain priorities: air, maritime, cyber, aerospace, space and land. The overarching factor which binds the six components together is the recognition that the single-domain threat environment is evolving into a multi-domain one. In the past, the threat to North America resided largely on a single axis (north-south), within a dominant domain (air, combined with ballistic missiles), met by a bi-national structure. While this threat seemed to collapse with the end of the Cold War, NORAD continued and evolved to adapt to new threats as well as to continue to monitor the Cold War-styled air and aerospace threats. Subsequently, 9/11 created a new threat environment and forced NORAD to consider threats emanating from within North America as well as outside of it. In addition to a number of changes, including direct feeds from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and NAVCANADA, NORAD expanded into the maritime domain via a maritime warning mission. Roughly at the same time, NORAD’s attention also turned to the cyber-domain and its common threat to North America. The air threat has now returned with the resumption of long-range Russian flights across the Arctic, and down the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. This threat, however, is of a different character because of the development of a new generation of Russian long-range air-launched cruise missiles, as well as sea-launched cruise missiles, which have direct implications for NORAD’s capacity to deter, detect and defend, as well as for its current area of operations and mission suites (air/aerospace warning and control and maritime warning). Not only will these new long-range capabilities diffuse to other potential adversaries, generating a global threat environment, but also the first generation of hypersonic weapons has set the conditions for the merger of air and missile defence, and the air and outer space domains. Finally, the consequences of an attack against North America, alongside potential catastrophic natural disasters relative to the role of military forces in support of civil authorities, raises issues for both Canada and the U.S., and thus NORAD, regarding the most efficient and effective means to respond. The multi-domain/multi-dimensional North American threat environment should drive both Canada and the U.S. towards deeper defence co-operation, and the functional demands of this new threat environment could lead to NORAD’s ultimate transformation into an integrated, multi-domain and dimensional North American Defense Command solution. Of course, this outcome is not inevitable, and numerous barriers exist. Nonetheless, the same logic which led to NORAD’s creation in 1957 (with the agreement signed in 1958), remains valid. Driven by the common recognition that the defence of North America is indivisible, a North American Defense Command would be a natural evolution in Canada – American defence relations.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Maritime, Land, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
Canada, North America, and United States of America

5503. Finding "Win-Win": China's Arctic Policy and What It Means for Canada

Author:
Adam Lajeunesse
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
China is a “Near Arctic State” with national interests in Arctic resources, shipping lanes, and regional governance. That was the message delivered to the world in China’s new Arctic policy (China 2018). The philosophy espoused in the Chinese White Paper is one of cooperation and mutual profit – what the Chinese have dubbed “win-win” polar partnerships. These partnerships have been expanding in recent years. Tens of billions of dollars in Chinese capital has flowed into oil and gas projects in Siberia and the Russian Arctic offshore, new shipping routes are being tested, and state-owned mining companies have acquired rich mineral deposits in Greenland and – to a lesser extent – Canada. These resources, and the sea lanes that connect them, have been labelled the “Polar Silk Road,” a maritime trade and shipping route supported by Chinese infrastructure spending (theoretically) running through the Northwest Passage and other circumpolar channels. China’s increasingly confident posture in the North represents real opportunities – and challenges – for Canada. Managed properly, Chinese money can support the decades old Canadian dream of developing the Northwest Passage as a useable sea route, decreasing shipping costs, supporting development and improving the quality of life for Arctic residents. Managed incorrectly, Chinese activity might leave the Asian power with a degree of de facto control over the Arctic, damaging Canadian sovereignty and imperiling the country’s ability to manage this increasingly important region on Canadian terms. This new White Paper is as clear a signal as can be sent that China is coming into the Arctic with long-term strategic ambitions. Canada should not fear this development, but it must be prepared for it.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Canada, Asia, and Arctic

5504. Energy, Trade and Geopolitics In Asia: The Implications for Canada

Author:
Jeff Kucharski
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
Canada’s growing interest in trade with countries in the Indo-Pacific region corresponds with an ominous growth in geopolitical instability and insecurity in that part of the globe. With Indo-Pacific hunger for oil expected to soar – especially in China, where demand will translate to 80 per cent of imports in 10 years – Canada needs to develop policies to deal with the region’s turbulent realities. The Indo-Pacific comprises countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia, and includes such unstable and unpredictable players as North Korea and Pakistan, both of which have nuclear weapons and long-simmering border tensions. India is an emerging economic and military rival to China. In the next 20 years, China and India are expected to lead the global demand for gas as coal consumption continues to decline, and Canada has a stake in this prosperous future. Along with territorial squabbles in the region, Canada will have to deal with complex issues such as terrorism, human trafficking, transnational crime, piracy and cyber-crime, as well as the struggle for global dominance between China and the U.S. One key area for potential conflict is China’s recent construction and militarization of artificial islands in the South China Sea. The Canadian government’s new military strategy, Strong, Secure, Engaged does little more than make a plea for peace and the rule of law in the South China Sea. However, more trade crosses the Pacific Ocean from Canada than crosses the Atlantic. And with Canada signing on to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the region’s troubles will need to be resolved by more than good intentions on paper. Canada must shift more diplomatic, security and military resources to the Indo- Pacific; otherwise, its efforts will be spread too thinly to be effective in the region. Trade, especially through a major route like the Strait of Malacca, could easily be disrupted by any one of a number of disputes, such as a conflict between China and Taiwan or if historic resentments boil over among competing territorial claimants in the region. Thus, Canada needs to step up and reaffirm its security commitments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a partner in the region. Participating in maritime exercises and Freedom of Navigation (FON) operations would also help to reinforce to countries in the region the importance of abiding by international law. Meanwhile, Canada should set aside for now any intentions to negotiate a free trade agreement with China. China does not share some of Canada’s key trade and security goals and its aggressive behaviour in the South and East China Seas clearly signal that now is not the time to talk about a trade pact. China must demonstrate that it is willing to take a more cooperative approach to resolving trade and security issues in the Indo-Pacific and to support and respect the rule of law in the region. Canada has the potential to become a reliable, stable source of energy for Indo-Pacific countries. There is also an opportunity for provinces such as Alberta to strike their own strategic deals to provide energy resources to countries in that region, in return for trade and investment benefits. However, while investing at home in the necessary infrastructure and export capability to expand its role, Canada must also strive to bring its own unique approach to enhancing regional and energy security in the Indo-Pacific.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Geopolitics, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Canada, Asia, and North America

5505. Why Don’t Europeans Get It?

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
As the memory of the Holocaust fades, traditional anti-Semitism that turns into anti-Israel attitudes is no longer politically incorrect.
Topic:
Holocaust, Memory, Anti-Semitism, and State Building
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

5506. Canada’s Refugee Strategy: How It Can Be Improved

Author:
Robert Vineberg
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
When citizens lose faith in their government’s refugee policies, there arises the potential for an anti-immigration backlash, as several European countries have recently discovered. Canada has yet to see that happen, but it has for too long been muddling along with a refugee-processing system that is seriously flawed. Refugees go unprocessed for years, and in the meantime end up living, working and laying down roots. Often that only increases the chances they will end up staying even if they might have otherwise been rejected. It may even lead to increases in questionable refugee claims, as people realize they can work and make money in Canada for years before their case is even heard. The Canadian government has committed to increasing refugee numbers. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has designated Canada as the primary destination for hard-to-settle refugees. The diversity of source countries is increasing, resulting in more refugees who are illiterate in both English and French. More refugees will struggle to adapt to life in Canada. Taken together, it is possible that without fixing the problems in the system, public dissatisfaction could rise as Canadians lose faith that their refugee system is under control, and that could undermine their faith in the entire immigration system. The biggest flaw in the refugee system traces back to the government’s overreaction to the Singh decision. The Supreme Court ordered that all rejected refugees had a right to an in-person appeal, but the federal government went much further and gave every refugee an in-person hearing. That system has left Canada with a backlog, as of last year, of 34,000 cases. In most every other country, initial refugee screenings are conducted by public servants working for the immigration agency, which here would be Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, as opposed to the staff of the Immigration and Refugee Board. Canada could do a much better job at clearing its backlog and better processing refugee claims, particularly in weeding out the bogus claims, by reassigning responsibility for interviewing refugees to the officials at IRCC. The agency also has the advantage of having offices in almost every major city in Canada, while the IRB only hears cases in Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto, with the 2,500 refugee claimants residing in places outside B.C., Quebec and Ontario having to travel long distances for a hearing or having to settle for an inferior two-way video hearing. Also, this would avoid the conflict of interest at the IRB, which is in charge of reviewing appeals of its own decisions. The IRB is better suited to handle appeals of decisions made by IRCC agents who are at arm’s-length from the IRB. In addition, Canada should also ensure it maintains a balance in accepting not strictly refugees who are most at risk, but also an equal number of refugees who will more easily establish themselves in Canada and adapt within one year of landing in Canada. Having a system that not only ensures more efficient, effective processing of refugees, with proper control over who settles here, will not only help Canadians maintain confidence in their refugee and immigration system. It will also ensure that Canada has a system that can respond, when necessary, to global crises when they erupt, and better help those refugees who need protection.
Topic:
Government, United Nations, Immigration, and Refugees
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

5507. Canada’s Progressive Trade Agenda and a Free Trade Agreement with China: Are They Incompatible?

Author:
Hugh Stephens
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
The “non-market” clause in the just-concluded update of NAFTA, now known as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) would appear to limit Canada’s options in terms of negotiating a free trade agreement with China at the present time (given the de facto U.S. veto over a Canada-China agreement that it provides), yet Prime Minister Trudeau has already reaffirmed Canada’s intention to pursue closer economic ties with China despite this apparent limitation. If negotiations proceed, negotiating a free trade agreement (FTA) with China will be very different from negotiating one with a country that shares Canada’s Western values. However, a trade agreement with China makes good economic sense, and while there are some unique obstacles to reaching such an agreement owing to differing views of progressive trade, these are not insurmountable. In fact, Canada can use the same models in negotiating with China that it has used with Western countries. Such an approach combines trade goals with respecting Chinese cultural and political differences, particularly those that fall into the category of progressivism. This category includes labour rights, Indigenous and gender issues, and governance. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has been focused on progressive elements in trade deals, while China has made it clear it is not interested in including them in any such pact. Concluding an agreement would mean that China and Canada must both recognize the political requirements and dynamics on the opposite side of the negotiating table, while seeking common ground diplomatically. Side agreements such as those that exist in the original NAFTA and in the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) are one way to work with the two countries’ differences. Many of the provisions in a side agreement are not binding and thus not subject to the agreement’s dispute settlement mechanism or trade sanctions. Instead, they are more aspirational and sometimes lay out a process for civil society groups to raise issues and help the thinking on those issues evolve, rather than simply holding the parties accountable for breaches. Canada is rightly concerned about Chinese stances on human rights, labour, environmental and gender issues. However, instead of including these issues in the main document on trade, they can be dealt with as shared interests between the two countries. Establishing separate but parallel mechanisms to deal with these issues would be a practical way to make progress. Focusing on micro, small and medium-sized businesses as one Chapter of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) did, could be another successful approach. Women own many of these businesses in developing countries, so such a focus would make a substantial contribution to their welfare. None of this means Canada should kowtow to China or look the other way on important values and issues. Side agreements and special focuses have formed parts of agreements with other countries that already share Canada’s Western values. This type of give-and-take is present even when Canada negotiates with countries that are not polar opposites. No country’s interests are exactly the same as those of any other and it’s unrealistic to expect unanimity on every issue. Language and firm commitments on progressive issues are still evolving in many of Canada’s free trade agreements, including the USMCA. It would be unreasonable to hope that everything can be achieved in an agreement with China on the first go-around. Rather, viewing a trade agreement with China as a work-in-progress means controversial elements can be brought into the negotiations and language used that reflects the understanding that these issues are evolving. It will require creative thinking, flexibility and joint commitment to find a solution, but—assuming that the USMCA does not rule out Canada-China negotiations toward a trade agreement— it should be possible to find sufficient common ground without having to resort to obfuscation and “creative ambiguity”.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, NAFTA, Free Trade, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Canada, Asia, and North America

5508. Moving the Markers

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Clinton-Obama parameters haven’t worked – not for 25 years of peacemaking efforts since Oslo. They have lead to deadlock and much suffering. Let’s give the Trump team credit for taking a fresh look at what is safe, wise, fair and realistic in today’s Israeli-Palestinian reality.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, Borders, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

5509. Thwart Turkey’s Jerusalem Incursion

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel should be defending itself against Erdogan by blocking his Jerusalem incursion, and taking the offensive against Erdogan by impeding his military build-up.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Authoritarianism, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

5510. The Fall of Dera’a

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
It remains deeply open to question as to whether Putin has either the will or the capability to prevent Iranian deployment in the border area.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

5511. Is southern Syria heading for ‘Lebanonization’?

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The likely emergent picture in Syria, as in Lebanon, is the ongoing consolidation of another IRGC project, in the framework of a weakened and truncated Arab state, along with an ongoing Israeli effort to deter the masters of this project from acts of aggression.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, Borders, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria

5512. Hosting Viktor Orban is in Israel’s best interest

Author:
Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
hose who called for the cancellation of Orbán’s visit did not boycott Putin’s visit to Israel in 2012, nor did they condemn Israel’s apology to Erdoğan in 2013. Realpolitik must be consistent, and self-righteousness cannot be selective.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Hungary

5513. Diplomacy Backed by Military Force

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
How the wise use of force facilitates diplomatic processes in the Israel-Egypt-Hamas and Israel-Russia-Syria triangles
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Egypt

5514. US-Saudi Agreement to Increase Oil Production – Another Step towards Toppling the Iranian Regime

Author:
Omer Dostri
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The recent agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production is a significant blow to Iran. America seeks either regime change or a new nuclear deal on better terms.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Oil
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

5515. Hamas Activities in Turkey against Israel

Author:
Omer Dostri
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Ankara is allowing Hamas to continue operating from Turkish territory against Israel. Israel can and should thwart such Turkish violations of the reconciliation agreement between the two countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

5516. The Advantages of a Cease-Fire

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel would prefer not to go to war with Hamas over kite terrorism but Gaza’s rulers should not confuse that with apprehension. The simple fact is that clear priorities must be set and Israel must decide which of the threats it faces is truly urgent.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

5517. Reasons for Restraint

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Despite many Israelis’ growing frustration, there are good reasons why the IDF has yet to use all of its force to combat the growing terrorism from the Gaza Strip, including the fact the IDF is focused on the northern front where Israel faces its main enemy: Iran.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

5518. The Perception of Weakness

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The latest round of violence on the Israel-Gaza border has followed its familiar pattern. Neither party wants to blink first; whoever does will be at a disadvantage down the line.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

5519. The Future of Eastern Syria and the Israeli Interest

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
JISS fellow Dr. Jonathan Spyer travelled in late July to the SDF enclave in eastern Syria. He reports that maintenance of this enclave is critical to keeping a substantial physical obstacle to the Iranian goal of a contiguous corridor from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Hegemony, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

5520. The Cypriotization of Northern Syria

Author:
Cohen Yanarocak
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Turkey is turning northern Syria – Jarabulus and Afrin – into the “Turkish Republic of Northern Syria,” just as it has turned northern Cyprus into a Turkish protectorate through military and economic domination.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Cyprus

5521. Bypass Abbas and axe UNRWA

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
In pursuit of peace, it’s high-time that the PLO be showered with the “tough love” once reserved uniquely for Israel. And Israel’s defense establishment should get behind the ditch UNRWA discourse.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Peace, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

5522. The Oslo Process – 25 Years On

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The abject failure of the Oslo Accords has had a salutary effect on Israeli society. Israelis are today quite resilient, ready to endure – if necessary – protracted conflict.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Peace, and Oslo Accords
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

5523. Iran’s Involvement in the Western Sahara

Author:
Omer Dostri
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Iran’s goal in its activity in the Western Sahara is to subvert Morocco, a moderate Sunni state, as part of the Iranian regime’s policy of spreading the Shi’ite revolution.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Morocco, and Western Sahara

5524. Erdogan’s Dilemma

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Turkey faces few good options as the Idlib offensive looms.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Leadership, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

5525. Is Khamenei Ruling out Dialogue with Trump?

Author:
Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
On restoring relations between Tehran and Washington. If the protests in Iran expand, Trump will be able to exert greater pressure on Tehran.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

5526. The American Interpretation of Russia’s Conduct: The Case of Syria

Author:
Micky Aharonson
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The US is failing to appreciate the significance of the leverage points that the Syrian arena provides for Russia. This leverage allows Russia to exact a heavy toll for the measures the US is demanding.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

5527. The Real Story behind the Repatriation of Syrian Refugees

Author:
Micky Aharonson
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Russia is actively promoting international involvement in the reconstruction of Syria as a humanitarian effort aimed at creating the conditions for refugees to return, but in practice this will reinforce the foundations of Assad’s rule and territorial control. The US is in no hurry to respond, but the Russian initiative will not remain unanswered.
Topic:
Human Rights, Refugees, Humanitarian Crisis, and Repatriation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria

5528. Israel’s Secret War Against Iran Is Widening

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel has fully joined the battle in Syria—but it’s not clear it can achieve any of its goals there.
Topic:
Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

5529. As the Middle East Turns: Domestic Unrest, Changing Partnerships, and an Unreliable United States

Author:
Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
In the Mideast of today, the US is largely irrelevant, when it is not disruptive, and is certainly not providing clear leadership. With the current disarray in DC, it does not look like this will change any time soon.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

5530. After Ahvaz: Iran’s Regime Faces the Consequences of its Subversive Campaigns

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
While Israel should steer away from overt identification with internal challengers in Iran, this is the time to urge the US. and other like-inded nations to ratchet up the pressure on the regime, explaining to the Iranian people the growing cost of their leaders’ ambitions.
Topic:
Terrorism, Hegemony, ISIL, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

5531. Iran’s Lies – A Tool for Concealing its Policy Contradictions in Syria

Author:
Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Iran is hiding its efforts to establish a presence in Syria, for both internal and external reasons. This policy involves numerous internal contradictions and to avoid admitting to them, the IRGC and Hezbollah are conducting a propaganda campaign.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, Armed Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

5532. Common Objectives, Separate Interests

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The downing of a Russian plane by Syrian artillery after an Israeli strike proves how vital it is to maintain open lines of communications between Israel and Russia. The IDF may have to exercise more restraint, but it will still do what it must.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Communications, Military Strategy, Missile Defense, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

5533. Angela Merkel’s Duplicity on Israel

Author:
Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Germany is being inconsistent and duplicitous and the time has come to say it loud and clear.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Germany

5534. Israel’s War With Iran is Inevitable

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
In the absence of a clear American or Turkish determination to confront Iranian encroachment, only Israel has the power to stop it.
Topic:
Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

5535. Nowhere, No-Time Supervision of Iran

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel must continue to take the offensive against Iran’s nuclear program, without reliance on international inspectors.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

5536. Warmed-Over Withdrawal Syndrome

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The INSS unilateral disengagement plan is neither new nor logical.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

5537. Complications in Russian-Israeli Relations: Israel’s Aerial Freedom of Operation in Syria will be Preserved

Author:
Omer Dostri
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Russia’s accusations against Israel that it is responsible for the downing of its plane is meant primarily for a domestic audience. Until now, Russia has made sure to behave with restraint in the Syrian arena and to operate based on its strategic interests. One of those interests is the Russian desire to minimize Iranian involvement in Syria.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

5538. Hamas’ Cyber Activity against Israel

Author:
Omer Dostri
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Although Hamas’ cyber capabilities do not now constitute a serious threat to Israel, this reality can quickly change in view of the rapid pace of technological progress.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Terrorism, Cybersecurity, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

5539. Restore Deterrence, but Bet on Mediation

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Iran and the smaller terrorist groups in Gaza want a full-scale war with Israel. Hamas does not. Israel should land a decisive, well-defined blow but back Egyptian efforts to broker a cease-fire.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Terrorism, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt

5540. A draw with Hamas is strategically unsatisfactory

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Reducing enemy capabilities and ambitions in Gaza requires Israeli military readiness and government willingness to use force intermittently, while maintaining a healthy and resilient Israeli home front.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

5541. Gaza and the Middle East “Camp of Stability”

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel’s actions (or at times, inaction) concerning the future of the Gaza Strip cannot be isolated from the broader context of the struggle over the entire region’s balance of power. Gaza’s dependence on Egypt, and perhaps Cyprus, constitutes a common interest of the “camp of stability” in the Middle East, to curb the influence of both Turkey and Iran, and to deny Abu Mazen the baneful position of a spoiler.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Egypt, and Cyprus

5542. China-Israel Relations: Growing Cooperation Amidst Conflicting Interests

Author:
Omer Dostri
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
In the past decade, relations between Israel and China have become closer, following a decision in Jerusalem to diversify and expand Israel’s ties with emerging powers and countries that do not belong to the European Union and are less identified with the American coalition. The visit to Israel by China’s vice president is evidence of the warming of relations between the two countries.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

5543. In Praise of Conflict Management

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Amidst violent events, it is easy to be tempted to seek decisive “solutions” to the Palestinian problem(s) – in both the PA areas and in Gaza – through drastic military action, or through equally dramatic concessions. But given the lessons of recent history, as well as the unpredictable nature of regional events, it makes sense to adhere to “conflict management” and piecemeal arrangements. This is not as a cowardly choice by hapless political and military leaders, but as a rational choice in irrational circumstances; even more so when the Iranian challenge looms larger than ever on Israel’s immediate horizons. Patience has its own merits.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

5544. Don’t throw MBS under the bus

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Saudi Crown Prince isn’t a democrat or a strategic savior, but don’t give the evil leaders of Turkey and Iran a victory by weakening US-Saudi ties.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

5545. Saudi Arabia’s own-goal

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul is a fascinating story with potentially far-reaching regional and global implications. How will it affect Israel?
Topic:
Human Rights, Authoritarianism, Assassination, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Saudi Arabia

5546. The Lebanese Armed Forces: Hezbollah’s Collaborator

Author:
Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Lebanese army should be treated as a hostile entity, its camouflage should be stripped away, and the American administration should be supplied with conclusive evidence of the multi-faceted cooperation between it and Hezbollah.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, Armed Conflict, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

5547. Fear Triumphs: On the Nonparticipation of Eastern Jerusalem Arabs in Municipal Elections

Author:
David Koren
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Despite the desire of Arabs in eastern Jerusalem for greater integration in Israeli life, their fear of the Palestinian Authority and its agents kept them away from the polls in October. And while seeking pragmatic and constructive integration in Jerusalem, they still adhere to the Palestinian side of the identity axis. Once again, 38% of the capital city’s residents remain outside its political arena.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Minorities, Elections, Discrimination, Local, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

5548. In the Middle East, You Win With Fear

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Only a crushing and devastating blow to Hamas will pave the way for a truce that would not be a victory for the terrorists.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hamas, and Fear
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

5549. The Murder of Sheikh Bashir Faisal al-Huwaidi in Raqqa

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The killing of prominent Arab tribal leader Sheikh Bashir Faisal al-Huwaidi has serious implications for the US and Kurdish administered part of Syria, in which Raqqa is located. That administration of Syria has many enemies and remains fragile.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Fragile States, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

5550. Eastern Mediterranean Summitry

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Greek-Cypriot-Egyptian summit held last month in Crete focused on energy connectivity and Turkish threats, but it also paid lip service to Egyptian pro-Palestinian messages, which is problematic.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, Egypt, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

5551. The Threat is Real

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The challenge now is how to make it clear to the Hamas leadership that it should not believe is own supercilious words.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

5552. On Hezbollah’s Intention to Seize Control of the Economic and Monetary Systems in Lebanon

Author:
Elisheva Simon
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Hezbollah’s leadership has come to realize that harsher US sanctions pose a serious threat to the revolutionary regime in Tehran. It will become increasingly difficult for the regime to finance the full spectrum of its revolutionary ambitions. Hezbollah has therefore had to focus on securing its own sources of funding and providing employment for its members and followers through ever-deeper engagement in Lebanon’s economic and financial spheres of activity.
Topic:
Terrorism, Hezbollah, Regional Economy, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

5553. Not Quite that Close: Israel’s Policy towards China

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel’s strategy toward China doesn’t conflict with American interests; rather, it serves and reinforces them. Partnering with Beijing can help stabilize the Middle East. Partnering with Asian nations threatened by Beijing can help build a counterbalance to Chinese power.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Hegemony, Economic Cooperation, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

5554. Chad: Africa returns to Israel

Author:
Omer Dostri
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The historic renewal of Chad-Israel ties will benefit both nations and shows that PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s foreign policy is effective.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Chad

5555. East Mediterranean Partnership Signals an Energy Revolution

Author:
Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Natural gas has turned Greece from a rival to an ally just as relations between Israel and Turkey started deteriorating.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and Mediterranean

5556. A New Order Emerges in Southern Syria as Assad Regains Control

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Syrian regime closes accounts with West and Israel-linked rebels, as Iran builds and expands its presence in the area.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Syria

5557. Restraint and Deterrence

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel’s security requirements on other fronts, require containment of the conflict on the southern front, while continuing to build the western Negev notwithstanding Hamas’ arson attempts.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Territorial Disputes, Deterrence, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

5558. Snubbing Matteo Salvini Makes No Sense

Author:
Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Despite the fascist roots of Matteo Salvini’s “Liga” party, upgrading relations with the current Italian government serves the national interest because it shall help Israel export it’s natural gas to Europe as well as break the European consensus on Iran and on Jerusalem’s status.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Gas, Political Parties, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

5559. Reasserting Israel’s Deterrence in Gaza

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
It is necessary for Israel’s political and military leaders to readjust their conceptual framework concerning deterrence, and to engage the public in an open and effective dialogue on the deterrence equations. Also needed is a more specific and accurate capacity to strike fear into Hamas leadership by signaling both willingness and ability to destroy the assets that they value most.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Deterrence, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

5560. How far will the IDF go in confronting Hezbollah?

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Should a large operation inside Lebanon be considered after Hezbollah’s tunnels are successfully neutralized?
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Hezbollah, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

5561. The Next Arena of Conflict: The Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Iran, Turkey, Russia and other bad actors threaten Western and Israeli security in this strategic zone.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Mediterranean

5562. New Realities in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
For analytical as well as practical and even political reasons, the time has come to re-define Israel’s place in the world in terms of belonging to the “eastern Mediterranean” region, not the “Middle East.”
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Mediterranean

5563. Still Pro-Israel?

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Some hard-left Jews are out to sabotage the Birthright program. They are cutting away the limb – love for, and identification with, Israel – upon which all pro-Israel Jewish community activity must be based.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Nationalism, Diaspora, Non State Actors, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

5564. Saving Rojava

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Military, diplomatic and economic pressures can be brought to bear to preserve SDF and Kurdish autonomy in northeastern Syria, and to deter Turkey and Iran from conquering these areas.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Kurdistan

5565. Hysterical Reactions to Recent Terrorist Attacks

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The fitting Israeli response is to demonstrate resilience, and to declare that despite the terror and the pain we will remain in the land of our forefathers.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

5566. Trump’s Withdrawal from Syria: Not Unexpected and a Victory for the “Astana Three”

Author:
Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The possibility that Iran and Turkey will be emboldened by the American decision, is worrisome. The main counter to that will be robust deterrence from Israel, whose maintenance may increase the likeliness of escalation in Syria and Lebanon, and even more resort to the restraining hand of Russia.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

5567. The Withdrawal of the US from Syria in Broad Perspective

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel will need to increase the intensity of its operations against the Iranians. US withdrawal from the arena is a good opportunity for Israel to update its strategy in Syria.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

5568. Israel’s New Adversary: Iran’s Shi’ite Militias and the Next War in the North

Author:
Lazar Berman
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Shi’ite militia threat isn’t a mere thought exercise about a worst-case scenario. Iranian-controlled Popular Mobilization Forces leaders have already threatened Israel only miles from Israeli homes.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Religion, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

5569. The Fall of the Caliphate

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
No new beginnings in sight for ravaged Syria.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Islamic State, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

5570. Justice through Transitions: Conflict, Peacemaking and Human Rights in the Global South

Author:
César Rodríguez and Meghan Morris
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
The chapters in this volume illustrate many complexities of transitional justice processes from the perspective of young human rights advocates involved in these struggles, many with their own complicated personal connections to the search for justice. These advocates hail from countries that have divergent relationships with the notion of transitional justice, from places deeply embedded in its norms and processes, such as Argentina and Colombia, to countries undergoing various kinds of transitions on very different terms, such as Turkey and Mexico. All of the chapters, however, write the messiness of seeking justice through transitions, spanning from the personal and intimate to the national and global. Together, these chapters beautifully illustrate both the pain and the political possibilities that come from the inability to leave history in the past, as well as the creativity of individual and collective efforts to seek justice through transitions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, Transitional Justice, Justice, and Transition
Political Geography:
Global South

5571. How Much Will the Space Force Cost?

Author:
Todd Harrison
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The proposed creation of a new military service for space, known as the Space Force, is likely to be a hotly debated issue in the FY 2020 legislative cycle. One of the central questions about this proposal is how much it will cost and what the overall size and scope of the Space Force will be. This brief provides rough estimates for the number of military and civilian personnel, the number and locations of bases, the budget lines that would transfer to the new organization, and the additional personnel and headquarters organization that would be needed for the new military service.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Space, Space Force, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5572. The Evolution of the Salafi-Jihadist Threat

Author:
Seth G. Jones
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Despite nearly two decades of U.S.-led counterterrorism operations, there are nearly four times as many Sunni Islamic militants today as there were on September 11, 2001. Based on a CSIS data set of groups, fighters, and violence, the regions with the largest number of fighters are Syria (between 43,650 and 70,550 fighters), Afghanistan (between 27,000 and 64,060), Paki­stan (between 17,900 and 39,540), Iraq (between 10,000 and 15,000), Nigeria (between 3,450 and 6,900), and Somalia (between 3,095 and 7,240). Attack data indicates that there are still high lev­els of violence in Syria and Iraq from Salafi-jihad­ist groups, along with significant violence in such countries and regions as Yemen, the Sahel, Nigeria, Afghan­istan, and So­malia. These findings suggest that there is still a large pool of Salafi-jihadist and allied fighters willing and able to use violence to achieve their goals. Every U.S. president since 9/11 has tried to move away from counterterrorism in some capacity, and it is no different today. Balancing national secu­rity priorities in today’s world needs to happen grad­ually. For the United States, the challenge is not that U.S. officials are devoting attention and resources to dealing with state adversaries like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. These countries present legitimate threats to the United States at home and abroad. Rath­er, the mistake would be declaring victory over ter­rorism too quickly and, as a result, shifting too many resources and too much attention away from terrorist groups when the threat remains significant.
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Jihad, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

5573. The Gulf Scramble for Africa: GCC states’ foreign policy laboratory

Author:
Will Todman
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
When the border dispute between Eritrea and Ethiopia descended into bloody conflict in 1998, few could have predicted where a peace agreement would be signed some 20 years later. On September 16, 2018, the Eritrean and Ethiopian leaders sat at desks facing one another in the middle of a lavish hall in the Peace Palace in Jeddah. A huge portrait of Abdulaziz, Saudi Arabia’s first king, loomed over them. King Salman bin Abdulaziz sat underneath, with Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman and the secretary general of the United Nations Antonio Guterres on either side. The optics were clear: It was under Saudi sponsorship that decades of conflict ended. The deal would be known as the “Jeddah Peace Agreement.”1 The Jeddah Peace Agreement is the latest example of Arab Gulf states’ increasingly assertive interventions in sub-Saharan Africa. Although the Arabian Peninsula shares historic religious, economic, and linguistic links with parts of sub-Saharan Africa, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have rapidly deepened their economic and security ties across the African continent in the last decade, and a growing diplomatic role has followed. Gulf states are seeking to demonstrate their status on the world stage by acting as powerbrokers in African conflicts, and they have also attempted to secure the backing of African states in their own disputes. As they prepare to play a more significant role on the world stage, GCC states have come to view sub-Saharan Africa as a laboratory in which they can test more assertive international interventions.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Strategic Stability, Foreign Interference, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Africa, Gulf Nations, and Sub-Saharan Africa

5574. New Entrants and Small Business Graduation in the Market for Federal Contracts

Author:
Gregory Sanders and Andrew Philip Hunter
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This report tracks businesses new to the federal contracting arena from 2001-2016, otherwise known as new entrants, using publicly available contracting data from the Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS). Firm-level information on these vendors is collected over this time period and used to evaluate entrances, exits, and status changes among federal vendors with the purpose of comparing challenges faced by small businesses with those of larger ones. The final results compare the survival rates between small and non-small new entrants contracting with the federal government and calculate the graduation rates for those small new entrants who grew in size during the observation period and survived after ten years.
Topic:
Privatization, Non State Actors, Business, and Contracts
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5575. The Future of Latin America and the Caribbean in the Context of the Rise of China

Author:
Dr. R. Evan Ellis
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
There are numerous analyses about China and its future, as well as about Chinese engagement with Latin America. This report examines, in detail, how the growth of China, with its power and role in the global economy, is likely to transform Latin America and the Caribbean through economic, political, and other forms of engagement with the region. The report considers multiple scenarios regarding the future of China, the resolution of its security challenges, and possible departures from its current trajectory. It focuses primarily on the question of what Latin America and the Caribbean will look like if China succeeds in its ongoing economic and political engagement in the region. Compared to scenario-oriented analyses, this report does not attempt to predict the detailed political ebbs and flows of the region. Instead, it examines economic sectors to understand how the region will be transformed through its intimate economic relationship with China and its part in a global process in which Chinese companies continue to expand their presence in the region. While the report also looks at military issues and the likely evolution of Latin America’s relationship with the United States, it finds equally dramatic implications for China’s willingness to use its soft power in the region. While this report does not claim that China has nefarious objectives to politically dominate the region, or usurp the United States as a superpower, it does find evidence that the logical extension of China’s current expansion plans threatens to relegate the region to a future of limited economic opportunity and personal liberty. This is seen in China’s actions to pursue its development interests, dominate the most lucrative parts of global value chains, and expand China’s power with a questionable level of respect for Western concepts of universal laws, rights, and freedoms. As China continues in the pursuit of these goals, compromised elites serve the transfer of wealth and resources from the Latin American region and other "Belt and Road" region to the new imperial center.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Hegemony, Foreign Interference, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Latin America, Caribbean, and North America

5576. Renewing U.S. Economic Engagement with the Developing World

Author:
Daniel F. Runde
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This report describes how the development landscape has changed in recent decades and how the United States has responded to this new environment. It presents some initial recommendations on the next steps that the United States needs to take to better engage in trade and investment with developing countries. This report complements and builds upon prior CSIS publications on the topic. The development landscape has dramatically changed over the past 25 years. A set of countries once considered “poor” or “third world” have become more prosperous, freer, and healthier. These countries seek international economic engagement in the form of infrastructure investments, increased trade, and exchanges in science, technology, and innovation. As countries move up the prosperity ladder, they will need less foreign aid (i.e., official development assistance—ODA) and demand more participation as equal partners in a diversified global economy. The United States has a foreign assistance approach and toolbox that is outdated and has been reactive at best to the changes in the developing world. The United States must think more strategically about how to best engage the developing world, use foreign aid as a catalyst to attract private capital to these countries, and help level the playing field with other foreign players through anti-corruption efforts, procurement training, and trade facilitation. The United States needs an international economic strategy to engage with prospering developing countries as true economic partners. The United States needs to regain its economic leadership in the world. For those countries moving up the development ladder, the “donor-recipient” relationship must transition to a “partnership” approach. The United States needs a new way of engaging the developing world centered on the fundamental question of “what can developing countries and the United States do together?”
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Developing World, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5577. Accessing South Sudan: Humanitarian Aid in a Time of Crisis

Author:
Erol Yayboke
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Since gaining its independence from Sudan in 2011, South Sudan has struggled to fulfill the promise of a new nation, eventually descending into civil war in late 2013. The country is now bearing the devastating human and financial costs of a complex conflict with ever-changing armed and political actors. Aid organizations face an array of humanitarian access constraints while working to address the acute needs of 7 million people, roughly half of the country. Although there is cause for cautious optimism after a peace agreement was signed in September 2018, these humanitarian needs will only grow in the absence of sustainable peace and a political solution to the man-made crisis in South Sudan.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Conflict, Peace, State Building, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

5578. The Islamic State and the Persistent Threat of Extremism in Iraq

Author:
Maxwell B. Markusen
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Despite hard-fought victories to retake Islamic State territory, there are three major signs that Islamic State militants are regrouping, taking advantage of ongoing instability, and refocusing their campaign against the Iraqi government.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

5579. Technological Competition and China

Author:
James A. Lewis
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Napoleon’s famous quotation about a sleeping giant moving the world when it awoke seems prescient, but a closer examination presents a more complex story. China’s rise is often accompanied by corresponding predictions of inevitable conflict and U.S. decline. These predictions are simplistic and rest on assumptions of China’s economic and political trajectory that may not be valid. In the near term, competition is unavoidable, and the more important challenge comes from China’s efforts to “return to the center of the world stage” and the means China uses to attain this at a time when the United States is reassessing its global role. The United States and China are in a growing competition, perhaps verging on conflict, but it is not a nineteenth century competition between empires for control of territory and resources. Unlike great power competition in previous centuries, the focal point is not military strength or territorial expansion. This conflict is over control of the modern levers of power—global rules and institutions, standards, trade, and technology. The ability to create new technologies, particularly digital technologies (given their importance for politics, security, and economic growth) have become key factors in the U.S.-China relationship, which is marked by close commercial cooperation and deep governmental distrust. This disparity creates unavoidable tensions. The link between technology, innovation, national security, and international power is now widely recognized. When Vladimir Putin says that the country that leads in artificial intelligence (AI) “will be the ruler of the world,” it is hyperbole, but hyperbole that confirms that political leaders recognize that the ability to innovate is a potent source of national power. In the digital age, national security and national power have different requirements shaped by technological change and cyberspace. Innovation has become a central element of its international influence.1 This is not new—the U.S.-Soviet space race was a contest of the ability of different systems to produce new technologies, but those were unique government programs. Technological competition today is as much between companies as states. A country’s ability to innovate and produce advanced technologies provides economic strength, military power, and an intangible benefit of perceived leadership. Both China and the United States have advantages and disadvantages in this contest, and while it is usual to focus on quantitative aspects—such as the number of engineers or patents and spending on research and development (R&D)—these are not the key determinants of technological competition between states. This competition is a contest of ideas on governance for investment, innovation, and the internet. The internet and global connectivity not only reshape the environment for competition but also create political and market forces that both nations find difficult to control.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Hegemony, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5580. The Article II Mandate: Forging a Stronger Economic Alliance between the United States and Japan

Author:
Matthew P. Goodman, Ann Listerud, and Daniel Remler
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The alliance between the United States and Japan has been a force for peace and prosperity around the world for nearly 60 years. Economics has been at the heart of the U.S.–Japan alliance from the outset: Article II of the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security mandates that the two allies “seek to eliminate conflict in their international economic policies and … encourage economic collaboration between them.” Nowhere are U.S. and Japanese strategic interests more closely aligned than in the Indo-Pacific region. Both Washington and Tokyo seek to ensure regional security and stability, expand trade and other economic opportunities, and support universal democratic norms. The two countries have worked constructively together for many decades to shape regional economic rules and norms through institutions such as the Asian Development Bank and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regionalism, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

5581. How 5G Will Shape Innovation and Security

Author:
James Andrew Lewis
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The fifth generation of mobile network technologies, known as “5G,” promises greater speed, security, and capacity. 5G will underpin the internet economy and provide the backbone for the next generation of digital technologies. So, it is unsurprising that there is intense competition among companies and countries for 5G leadership. 5G will determine the direction the internet will take and where nations will face new risks and vulnerabilities. Who makes 5G technologies will affect security and innovation in an increasingly competitive technological environment. Decisions made today about 5G will affect national security and economic performance for decades to come. This is a competition among companies and groups of companies but also a competition between market-based and state-directed decisionmaking. The United States has relied on the former, China on the latter, and Europe falls somewhere in between. American technology remains essential for 5G mobile telecommunications. American companies have been strong performers in developing 5G technologies, but the United States and its allies face a fundamental challenge from China. The focus of competition is over 5G’s intellectual property, standards, and patents. Huawei, for example, has research programs to develop alternatives to American suppliers, and U.S. trade restrictions have accelerated China’s efforts to develop its own 5G industry. While American companies lead in making essential 5G technologies, there are no longer any U.S. manufacturers of core telecommunications network equipment. Four companies dominate the market for the core network technologies needed for 5G networks. None of these companies are American. 1The choices are between European security partners (Ericsson and Nokia) and China (Huawei and ZTE). Telecom is a strategic industry and having two companies with close ties to a hostile power creates risk for the United States and its allies. A secure supply chain for 5G closes off dangerous areas of risk for national security in terms of espionage and the potential disruption to critical infrastructures. China’s aggressive global campaign of cyber espionage makes it certain that it will exploit the opportunities it gains as a 5G supplier. One way to envision this is to imagine that the person who built your house decides to burgle it. They know the layout, the power system, the access points, may have kept a key, and perhaps even built in a way to gain surreptitious entry. Major telecom “backbone” equipment connects to the manufacturer over a dedicated channel, reporting back on equipment status and receiving updates and software patches as needed, usually without the operator’s knowledge. Equipment could be sold and installed in perfectly secure condition, and a month later, the manufacture could send a software update to create vulnerabilities or disrupt service. The operator and its customers would have no knowledge of this change. The United States can manage 5G risk using two sets of policies. The first is to ensure that American companies can continue to innovate and produce advanced technologies and face fair competition overseas. American and “like-minded” companies routinely outspend their Chinese competitors in 5G R&D and hold 10 times as many 5G patents. Chinese companies still depend on the western companies for the most advanced 5G components. The second is to work with like-minded nations to develop a common approach to 5G security. The United States cannot meet the 5G challenge on its own. When the United States successfully challenged Chinese industrial policy in the past, it has been done in concert with allies. Another task will be to find ways to encourage undecided countries to spend on 5G security. Huawei’s telecom networks cost between 20 to 30 percent less than competing products. Huawei also offers foreign customers generous terms for leasing or loans. It can do this because of its access to government funds. Beijing supports Huawei for both strategic and commercial reasons. Many countries will be tempted by the steep discount. Not buying Huawei means paying a “premium” for security to which economic ministries are likely to object. The United States will need to encourage others to pay this security premium while at the same time preparing for a world where the United States unavoidably connects to Huawei-supplied networks and determine how to securely connect and communicate over telecom networks in countries using Chinese network equipment. The United States does not need to copy China’s government-centric model for 5G, but it does need to invest in research and adopt a comprehensive approach to combatting non-tariff barriers to trade. 5G leadership requires a broader technology competition policy in the United States that builds the engineering and tech workforce and supports both private and public R&D. The United States also needs to ensure that U.S. companies do not face obstacles from antitrust or patent infringement investigations undertaken by other countries to obtain competitive advantage. In the twentieth century, steel, coal, automobiles, aircraft, ships, and the ability to produce things in mass quantity were the sources of national power. The foundations of security and power are different today. The ability to create and use new technologies is the source of economic strength and military security. Technology, and the capacity to create new technologies, are the basis of information age power. 5G as the cornerstone of a new digital environment is the focal point for the new competition, where the United States is well-positioned to lead but neither success nor security are guaranteed without action.
Topic:
Science and Technology, 5G, Emerging Technology, and Telecommunications
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5582. The Arab Gulf States and Iran: Military Spending, Modernization, and the Shifting Military Balance

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Nicholas Harrington
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The military balance between Iran, its Arab neighbors, and the United States has been a critical military issue in the Middle East since at least the rise of Nasser in the 1950s. The risks this arms race presents in terms of a future conflict have not diminished with time, and many elements of the regional arms race have accelerated sharply in recent years. Clashes with Iran in the Gulf, struggles for influence in Iraq and Syria, and the war in Yemen all act as warnings that new rounds of conflict are possible. The Iranian reactions to the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear agreement, the growing tensions between the Arab Gulf states, the boycott of Qatar, and the unstable outcome of the fight against ISIS, and the Syrian civil war all contribute to an increasingly fragile and dangerous security environment.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Military Spending, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

5583. Central American Power Markets

Author:
Silvia Alvarado Cordoba and Juan A. B. Belt
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the power sector reforms that have taken place in Central American countries and to identify measures to increase the efficiency of their power markets. Given the size of their markets, their level of development, and the socioeconomic environment they face, lessons from the countries this paper focuses on can be applicable to a wide range of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa. Given Guatemala’s market performance, the paper gives particular emphasis to developments and lessons from Guatemala, particularly its use of competitive procurement for power generation and for transmission. Through substantial research and analysis, the paper identifies a series of measures that can be taken to improve the operations of power markets in Central America, while an additional set of recommendations are made that can help enhance power trade between Central American countries and its two closest neighbors in the region—Mexico and Colombia.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Socioeconomics, and Power Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5584. After the Killing of Jamal Khashoggi: Muhammad bin Salman and the Future of Saudi-U.S. Relations

Author:
F. Gregory Gause III
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
On October 24, 2017, Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, welcomed over 3,500 of the world’s financial elites to a conference center adjoining the Ritz Carlton Hotel in Riyadh for an “economic coming-out party.”1 The crown prince was selling investors and government officials on his plans for the transformation of the country, not just its economy but also its society. His Vision 2030 plan to lessen the economy’s dependence on oil and increase the role of the private sector required investment, both from at home and abroad.2 It was a glittering show, featuring plans for a new city on the Red Sea coast, Neom, which would be staffed at least in part by robots. Within a few weeks of this impressive gathering, hundreds of the Kingdom’s economic and political elites were prisoners in that same Ritz Carlton. One year after the conference, self-exiled Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed by agents of the Saudi government in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. When the crown prince convened a second investment conference in Riyadh, a “Davos in the desert” as some billed it, in October 2018, the guest list was much reduced. A number of high-profile political leaders and CEO’s backed out, including the U.S. treasury secretary, the president of the World Bank, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the CEOs of JPMorgan Chase, HSBC, Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas, and the London Stock Exchange.3 While $50 billion in investment deals were announced, over $30 billion were with Saudi Aramco, the state oil company.4 In the year between the two conferences, the crown prince suffered a number of setbacks that called into question both his judgment and his political capacity. The killing of Jamal Khashoggi was simply the most recent in that line. Whether the killing was directly ordered by the crown prince or the work of close aides who believed they were carrying out his wishes, the ultimate responsibility rests with him. Some of those setbacks can be attributed to MBS’s own decisions; others simply reinforced the fact that there are considerable obstacles confronting his ambitious plans. His regional foreign policy initiatives, in particular, have not worked out as he had hoped. But these setbacks do not mean that the crown prince’s days are numbered in the Saudi leadership. He has successfully consolidated power in his own hands in a way that is unprecedented in recent Saudi history. The Trump administration, which hitched its wagon to MBS in an imprudent and counter-productive way, now has to decide how to use the fallout from this crisis to change MBS’s behavior, avoiding the extremes of a purely symbolic reaction that has no effect on Saudi policy and the unrealistic goal of declaring, as Trump ally Senator Lindsey Graham did, that the crown prince “has got to go.”5
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, and Assassination
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

5585. From the IRA to the Islamic State: The Evolving Terrorism Threat in Europe

Author:
Seth G. Jones, Boris Toucas, and Maxwell B. Markusen
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Europe faces a significant threat from terrorism, particularly from Islamic extremists and far-right groups. Europe’s challenges with terrorism have largely gone unnoticed in the United States, whose strategy documents like the U.S. Department of Defense’s National Defense Strategy have shifted away from counterterrorism and toward competition with state competitors like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. In addition, Europe’s increasingly aggressive approach to terrorists—including prosecuting individuals for planning to travel abroad to join terrorist groups, censoring extremist Internet material, punishing Internet companies that fail to remove extremist material, and improving intelligence cooperation—have also largely gone unnoticed in the United States. This report takes a renewed look at Europe and compiles new data on the threat to Europe. It also examines the counterterrorism response by European governments, especially the United Kingdom and France.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe

5586. Pushing Back against Narrowing Space for Civil Society in Tunisia

Author:
Yara Shahin
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Civil society plays a vital role in society. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) connect citizens and governments, hold governments accountable, and advocate for citizens’ interests. After being widely celebrated in the 1990s, civil society across the world is now facing shrinking support and growing restrictions. Drivers behind these restrictions in Tunisia include professed concerns about terrorism, a dominant security agenda, and the shift within civil society from service delivery to advocacy, which can seem threatening to governments. Government restrictions most often target the social justice sector and obstruct the work of NGOs through legal restrictions, financial measures, and direct threats to civic actors. Recently, many governments have intensified accusations that civil society and its activists are anti-development, work against economic security, or are terrorist sympathizers or supporters. This paper explores the status of civic space in Tunisia and its development from the most repressive civic space in the Middle East and North Africa during Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s regime to an open civic space following the 2011 Arab Spring. It also highlights the various ways in which civil society has responded to the closing of civic space, especially as it pertains to pushing back against problematic laws through the formation of domestic coalitions.
Topic:
Civil Society, Space, NGOs, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and Tunisia

5587. Polish Civil Society

Author:
Barbara Smith
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Amidst democratic backsliding globally, Poland has experienced a retreat from tolerance, inclusion, transparency, and government accountability. During interviews with some twenty individuals and groups in government, the private and non-profit sectors, and academic institutions, significant concerns about the future of Poland’s democratic institutions were expressed. In particular, respondents cited issues regarding the independence of the judiciary, a lack of tolerance by the ruling party as reflected in perceived xenophobic and discriminatory language, a growing deficit in transparency, and a lack of inclusion with respect to political processes. Finally, interviewees noted the government’s increasingly centralized control and perceived politicization of funding for Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), especially with respect to traditional human rights CSOs. This report provides recommendations to CSOs, donors, the U.S. government, and Europe on how to help build the capacity of civil society, be that through new business models, funding streams, or fostering global and regional networks.
Topic:
Civil Society, Human Rights, Accountability, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

5588. Mexican Civil Society

Author:
Sarah Baumunk and Linnea Sandin
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Despite the occasional setback or spark of progress, civic space in Mexico has remained mostly stable since the country elected its first opposition president in 2000. While Mexico’s laws theoretically protect its citizens’ rights, their faulty implementation has failed to yield results at best and has increased the vulnerability of human rights defenders at worst. Some laws have imposed significant administrative restrictions in the form of complex reporting requirements, which can be a burden for civil society organizations (CSOs), especially for smaller grassroots human rights organizations. Controversial laws that restrict civic space, coupled with the country’s high levels of corruption, astronomical impunity rate, and lack of transparency, have caused many citizens to lose faith in the government’s ability and willingness to protect and fight for rights. Newly-elected President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (“AMLO”) seems to have a genuine interest in human rights, which is promising for the future of civic space in Mexico. However, the fact that he has already softened some of his policy stances on these topics, paired with the government’s history of involvement in human rights violations, should prompt caution. This report provides examples of how Mexican civil society has taken action to advocate for and protect themselves, through mechanisms such as community police and broad coalitions.
Topic:
Civil Society, Human Rights, Social Movement, and Social Order
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

5589. Responding to Closing Civic Space: Recent Experiences from Three Global Initiatives

Author:
Fabian Hetz and Annika Elana Poppe
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The global phenomenon of closing civic space is no longer new. How best to respond to this decade-long trend as governments increasingly restrict space for civil society activities? This question is continuously debated among activists, academics and professionals in the field. The restriction of civic space comes in many forms, ranging from ad hoc intimidation and harassment of civic activists to growing legal restrictions that make it difficult or impossible for civil society organizations (CSOs) to receive funding and carry out activities. Governments and non-governmental actors have pushed back against these restrictive measures in various ways, with varying degrees of success. This report captures some of their recent learning experiences by examining in particular the approaches of cross-border initiatives that are led by civil society organizations and operate globally, in order to make this knowledge available to other initiatives struggling to reclaim spaces. T‍he CSIS International Consortium on Closing Civic Space (iCon) published “An Overview of Global Initiatives on Countering Closing Civic Space for Civil Society” in 2017. This report mapped several initiatives that emerged in response to the global phenomenon of closing civic space, striving to keep this space open or increase it. The report focused on approaches including advocacy on the international level, awareness-raising activities, peer-to-peer learning platforms, and technical assistance to civ­il society actors on the ground.
Topic:
Civil Society, Space, and Civil Society Organizations
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5590. Redefining Liquidity for Monetary Policy

Author:
Kyunghun Kim, Il Houng Lee, and Won Shim
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This paper proposes a monetary aggregate “Liquidity” that could serve as a useful indicator for gauging the appropriateness of monetary policy. If liquidity rises above a certain threshold, it is signaling that monetary policy is losing traction due to structural and other impediments even when the inflation gap remains open. This indicator supplements the financial cycle approach but adds value by providing a benchmark that is derived from the national account, and not based on its own trend. Over the last two decades, each time this measure rose above the threshold range, it was followed by a decline in GDP growth. The latter was greater when accompanied by a high physical asset value to GDP, e.g., an elevated property market.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, GDP, Economic Growth, Property, and Liquidity
Political Geography:
Asia, Korea, and Global Focus

5591. UNRWA’s Educational System and Impact

Author:
John Mark Shorack
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The United States government under President Trump recently announced the withdrawal of monetary aid to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, commonly referred to as UNRWA. This is a major blow to UNRWA’s finances considering the United States’ yearly contribution’s amounted to one-third of their budget. Since UNRWA’s founding it has been a leading force providing support of Palestinian refugees across the Middle East region mainly providing education and emergency medical assistance.
Topic:
Education, International Affairs, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Middle East

5592. Structure, Agents and Discourse in Managing Economic Crises: The Case of Greece, 2009-2017

Author:
Dimitris Tsarouhas
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This article focuses on the discursive frames used by policy entrepreneurs in Greece as they attempted to deal with the 2009 crisis and analyses the role played by discourse in handling the crisis’ consequences. Adopting a historical institutionalist framework, I argue that ineffective policy outcomes can be attributed to a path- dependent logic enshrined in the country’s political economy structures following the transition to democracy post-1974. Moreover, the reaction of policy entrepreneurs to the crisis was reinforced by their discursive logic of action, itself embedded in the state’s institutional matrix. Procrastination, a refusal to face an uncomfortable reality and politics as usual colours the response of Greek actors to the country’s biggest crisis in recent memory.
Topic:
International Relations and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Greece

5593. The Greek Crisis and Its Repercussions on the Balkan Neighbourhood: The End of the Myth

Author:
Marilena Koppa
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This article explores the role of Greece in the Balkans since the end of Communism and the impact of the sovereign debt crisis that followed. Since the beginning of the 1990s, while Greece failed to accomplish its vocation at the political level, at the level of the economy the country acted as an important regional actor. The article examines the dynamics of the Greek crisis on the Balkan economies and analyses the major challenges for Greece in this new reality. At the same times, it tries to identify the triple crisis faced currently by Greece: at the level of credibility and status, at the level of mediation between the region and the EU and, finally, at the level of the gradual peripherisation of the country.
Topic:
International Political Economy and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Greece

5594. Setting the Stage for Progress Towards Nuclear Disarmament

Author:
Tytti Erasto, Sibylle Bauer, Shannon N. Kile, and Peter Topychkanov
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Recognizing that the current international context is hardly conducive to arms control and disarmament, SIPRI working paper ‘Setting the stage for progress towards nuclear disarmament’ identifies 10 practical steps to revitalize the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as the principal normative and legal foundation of the global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime. At the same time, it recognizes the NPT’s inherent compatibility with other disarmament initiatives, most notably the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. In addition to restoring a sense of common purpose and addressing ‘old’ nuclear weapon-related risks, the paper highlights ‘new’ risks arising from developments in conventional capabilities and emerging technologies. The overarching objective is to set the stage for future concrete steps and initiatives to reduce the role of nuclear weapons and to eventually eliminate them.
Topic:
Peace Studies and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5595. Intelligence and Policy Community Cooperation in the Libya WMD Disarmament Case

Author:
William H. Tobey
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
As the Trump Administration prepares to negotiate with North Korea, a question has arisen as to what model Washington should follow. National Security Advisor John Bolton has suggested that the Libyan nuclear case represents the best example to emulate. Given the violence Libya suffered after it disarmed, this recommendation provoked criticism, not only from the North Korean government, but a number of American analysts. Anticipating the importance of this case, NPEC commissioned William Tobey, former Deputy Administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration, to write a primary history. Mr. Tobey served on the National Security Council in the Bush (43) Administration when the Libyan nuclear case was being worked.
Topic:
Intelligence, International Affairs, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Libya

5596. Avoiding a Nuclear Wild, Wild West in the Middle East

Author:
Henry Sokolski (ed)
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
With the Trump Administration’s announcement last fall that it intended to negotiate a civil nuclear cooperative agreement with Saudi Arabia, a debate has ensued over how restrictive any such agreement should be over the enrichment of uranium and the reprocessing of plutonium. These nuclear activities can bring a country within weeks of making its first batch of bombs. This announcement immediately raised the question, how much economic sense it made for Saudi Arabia to invest in nuclear power. It also raised a number of security questions. Should the United States allow Riyadh to reprocess and enrich even though these activities could bring Saudi Arabia within weeks of acquiring nuclear weapons? If Washington acceded to this demand by Riyadh, what would be the implications for the terms of nuclear cooperation with the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, and Morocco? How would such an agreement impact efforts to tighten the terms of our nuclear understanding with Iran? Would such a permissive deal with Riyadh make it more difficult to say no to Seoul’s demand that we allow them to enrich uranium? All of these questions and more are discussed in this volume’s four sections
Topic:
International Affairs and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Middle East

5597. The Medium-Run and Scale-Up Effects of Performance-Based Financing

Author:
Diana Ngo and Sebastian Bauhoff
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Rwanda’s performance-based incentives were effective for some indicators, but unconditional financing also induced improvements. The incentive effects persisted in the mediumrun and as the program was scaled-up. Additionally, the analysis demonstrates how observational research methods and secondary data can generate new insights on existing evaluations
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5598. The Peace Process: Will the Taliban give up its Insurgency in Afghanistan?

Author:
Ifran Yar
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
In the wake of the incipient peace process in Afghanistan, new hopes have emerged and an aura of optimism has spread across the country. After the first successful meeting with the Taliban, US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad met recently with the insurgents to discuss the peace talks in Qatar. This comes after Russia, reasserting its influence in the region, hosted a landmark international conference aimed at spurring the peace efforts in its restive neighborhood. The meeting was attended by the Taliban and its adversaries and concluded without any formal breakthrough. Since 2010, many efforts have been made to broker a peace deal with the Taliban but to no avail. Will this peace process convince the Taliban to give up its insurgency?
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5599. Inauspicious Incident: Erdoğan’s Evolving Relationship with Turkey’s Military

Author:
Ben Tannenbaum
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
Turkey’s military has historically played an outsized role in the country’s politics. Since assuming power in 2003, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) have worked to limit the military’s political influence, a process that has damaged Turkish civil society. The military overthrew the previous AKP government in 1997, and Erdoğan sought to avoid a similar fate. However, after the first decade of Erdoğan’s rule, political loyalties shifted. His chief ally against the military, Fethullah Gülen, became Erdoğan’s principal rival. The drama escalated in 2016 when Gülen allegedly cultivated a cohort of military officers in an attempted coup against Erdoğan. Since thwarting the coup, Erdoğan has successfully re-escalated his quest to constrain the military’s domestic political role. Nevertheless, despite this political feuding, Erdoğan and the Turkish military do hold some common interests on foreign policy. Their overlapping goals have provided some basis for cooperation between Erdoğan and his military. Erdoğan has scored political gains from his relationship with the military, instituting policies that have harmed Turkey’s economy and threatened its democracy.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5600. Trump isn’t NATO’s Only Problem

Author:
Basel Ammane
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
During the last NATO Summit in Brussels in July, the first since the onset of the Trump presidency, observers were carefully watching in anticipation of any indicators about the state of commitment by the US to the alliance. Trump’s antics, such as the insults he levelled at Germany, the impudent demands he made, and the thinly-veiled threat he issued unsurprisingly dominated media coverage. This served as a reminder that the alliance and its members need to work vigorously to safeguard US commitment given that this president’s preoccupation with prodding allies into increasing military spending, though echoed by previous administrations, is much more forceful and borders on the nakedly belligerent. To make matters worse, a skeptical view of alliances that sees them through a transactional prism and portrays them as burdens seems to be a consistent view that President Trump has held for years. This further demonstrates that the risk of a declining US commitment to the alliance is real. But a shaky commitment by a US president is hardly the only source of problems for today’s NATO.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus