Content Type: Working Paper / Publication Year: within 10 Years

4701. Legislating for a low carbon and climate resilient transition: learning from international experiences

Author:: Alina Averchenkova
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:: The objective of this working paper is to inform policy experts, legislators and decisionmakers on the recent trends in climate change policy-making around the world and to draw lessons learnt from the experiences with designing and implementing climate change legislation. The study in particular aims to contribute to the current debate in Spain on a draft climate change and energy transition law, as well as aid other countries currently working on climate legislation.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4702. Poland in Europe: disappointment or merely hiccup?

Author:: Piotr Maciej Kaczyński
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:: What is Poland’s position in the EU in the context of the political and economic developments under the Law and Justice government? Since 2015 the one-party government in Poland has engaged in a policy of a radical change. A set of various reforms have been implemented, some of them highly controversial, such as the reform process in the judiciary. The judicial reforms –or ‘take over’– put the Warsaw government on a collision course with the EU institutions over the rule of law. This paper analyses three aspects of the Polish-EU relationship: (1) the state of the rule of law; (2) the economic challenges; and (3) the political position of Poland among EU member states
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4703. Creating a digital roadmap for a circular economy

Author:: Johan Bjerkem
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The climate crisis, environmental disasters, a lack of competitiveness, falling behind in the digital race… The EU faces multiple challenges that it will need to address if it is to ensure long-term sustainable prosperity for European citizens. At the same time, there are two ongoing transitions – the creation of a circular economy and the digital transformation – that could provide the means to address these challenges, if they are managed well. As the EU and national policymakers are making significant efforts to promote a circular economy on the one hand and a digital economy on the other, Annika Hedberg and Stefan Šipka, together with Johan Bjerkem, argue that it is time to align the agendas as a means to achieve greater sustainability and competitiveness. This publication:
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4704. EPIM Policy Update July 2019

Author:: Katharina Bamberg
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: This edition’s special focus examines the results of the European Parliament Elections and what they mean for the reform process of the Common European Asylum System. Other key highlights of this Policy Update include an analysis of the ongoing criminalisation of Search and Rescue activities in the Mediterranean, the situation at the eastern border of the EU, developments on the Visa Code and Returns Directive, and a closer look from the European Summit of Refugees and Migrants
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4705. Paris-proofing the next Multiannual Financial Framework

Author:: Marco Guili
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: A carbon-neutral future, as envisioned by the European Commission in its recent communication A Clean Planet for All, will require unprecedented changes to the EU’s economy and society. The Multiannual Financial Framework for the 2021-2027 cycle, which is currently under negotiation, has an important role to play: overall, the EU budget supports regional development and research in areas that are critical to achieving climate goals, including transport, energy and agriculture. In this Discussion Paper, Marco Giuli draws lessons from the current EU budget cycle and investigates how it has hampered, and even undermined climate efforts, including continued support for practices that contribute to global warming. He also takes a closer look at the European Commission’s 2018 MFF proposal and concludes that, although several innovations concerning climate spending were introduced, there’s still a considerable risk that the new MFF will turn into a missed opportunity.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4706. The EU's Scottish question

Author:: Fabian Zuleeg
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: One of the unintended consequences of the Brexit vote almost three years ago has been the re-opening of the question of the UK’s territorial integrity. Most of the focus has, naturally, been on Northern Ireland, given the historical context and the challenge a hard border would constitute for the peace protest. Less attention has been paid to the situation in Scotland, even though it voted strongly against leaving the EU: 62% of Scottish voters voted remain, while only 38% voted to leave - a higher remain vote than in Northern Ireland. If anything, this sentiment has become stronger, with polls suggesting that two-thirds of Scottish voters now support remaining in the EU.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4707. Citizens expect: Lessons from the European Citizens' Consultations

Author:: Paul Butcher
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The European Citizens’ Consultations (ECCs) were supposed to bring citizens into the decision-making process and inform the European Council’s discussions about the future of the EU at the recent Sibiu Summit. In practice, any outcome from the ECCs has been largely absent, and it is unclear if they have been taken on board at all. This is despite the events providing a wealth of information on European citizens’ priorities, proposals, and demands. Paul Butcher and Corina Stratulat identify the main lesson of the 2018 ECCs – that without any clear definition of their objectives, it is impossible to adequately assess or respond to them. The authors go on to argue that any future repeat of the process must clearly define the scope and purpose of the exercise in advance. As the EU enters a new politico-institutional cycle, the immediate priority is to ensure that the ECCs and other forms of citizens’ involvement in decision-making appear prominently on the agenda of the new Commission and subsequent European Council summits.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4708. Ensuring a post-Brexit level playing field

Author:: David Baldock
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The European Council’s guidelines for the Brexit negotiations, published one month after it received the Article 50 notification from the United Kingdom, state that “any free trade agreement […] must ensure a level playing field, notably in terms of competition and state aid, and in this regard encompass safeguards against unfair competitive advantages through, inter alia, tax, social, environmental and regulatory measures and practices
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4709. The EU’s governance of Brexit and its impact on the negotiations

Author:: Johannas Greubel
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The three years after the Brexit referendum were marked by intense preparations for the UK’s departure, including withdrawal negotiations that eventually led to the conclusion of a Withdrawal Agreement and a political declaration, and the European Council agreeing to extend the withdrawal period until 31 October 2019 at the latest. Yet, even after the UK’s departure from the EU, negotiations between the EU and the UK are far from over. Indeed, it is only after the UK's withdrawal that negotiations on the future relations will begin. It is pertinent to examine how the EU governed the negotiation process internally, in order to draw conclusions for the future. Johannes Greubel argues that throughout the negotiations, the EU managed to set up an inter-institutional governance system that not only ensured unity but also the full support of all institutions for the negotiations' outcome, and strengthened the Union’s negotiation position. This governance constitutes a complex system of interaction that can be described as a model file of inter-institutional and -member state cooperation and diplomacy.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4710. Mainstreaming innovation funding in the EU budget

Author:: Eulalia Rubio
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: This study for the European Parliament provides a comprehensive assessment of how the EU budget supports innovation in the current programming period and analyses the approach to innovation financing in the Commission´s MFF 2021-2027 proposals. The findings provide the basis on which to draw recommendations to maximize the use of EU innovation funding in the coming MFF. In particular, the study
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4711. Brexit: Losing control

Author:: Andrew Duff
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Andrew Duff argues that neither the EU nor the UK is now fully in control. Both are being badly destabilised by Brexit. An accidental no deal is a live possibility. Unless the British have made real progress towards the exit by the time of the next EUCO in June, attitudes will harden — including those of Angela Merkel. Talks between pro-European Tory ministers and the Labour frontbench have a 30% chance of success. If they fail, both leaders are expected to commit to more indicative votes in the Commons, this time rather more ‘meaningful’. Mr Corbyn may want to delay his agreement until after the UK has been obliged by the EUCO to fight a mock election to the European Parliament. But the June EUCO is the next important deadline if British MEPs are to be stopped from taking their seats.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4712. Under Pressure: Russian Energy Cooperation with Japan and South Korea since Western Sanctions

Author:: Maria Shagina
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: This report will examine Russian-Japanese and Russian-South Korean energy cooperation. Neither Japan nor the Republic of Korea imposed energy sanctions on the Russian Federation, and both U.S. allies continue to expand their energy deals despite Western sanctions
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4713. Russia in Venezuela: Geopolitical Boon or Economic Misadventure?

Author:: Max Hess
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: In December 2018, the Russian Federation sent two Tupolov-160 supersonic bombers around the world to the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. On January 23, 2019, the U.S. and a series of Latin American countries recognized Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4714. China’s Black Sea Ambitions

Author:: Yevgen Sautin
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The People’s Republic of China is actively engaging Black Sea littoral states through various initiatives to open new markets for Chinese goods, facilitate the acquisition of valuable or strategic local industries, and offer loans for large development projects
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4715. The Sources of Post-Soviet Conduct

Author:: William Spiegelberger
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The Russian Federation’s recently provocative foreign policy results in part from structural weakness in the Russian domestic regime, a quasi-feudal system that requires certain actions abroad to maintain itself in power at home.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4716. Why Did Greece Turn Against Russia?

Author:: Dimitar Bechev
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: In the summer of 2018, Greece and Russian Federation went through one of the worst crises in their traditionally friendly relations. The falling out was triggered by allegations of Russian meddling in Greek domestic politics
Topic:: International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4717. Fracturing Communities :Aid Distribution in a Palestinian Camp

Author:: Perla Issa
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:: This article examines the practices of humanitarian aid distribution from the perspective of aid recipients rather than providers through an immersion in the daily home life of Palestinian residents of Nahr al-Barid refugee camp (north Lebanon) in 2011. It argues that in the name of distributing aid fairly, humanitarian aid providers put in place a pervasive system of surveillance to monitor, evaluate, and compare residents’ misery levels by relying on locally recruited aid workers. This regime of visibility was designed to be one directional; NGOs never disclosed how much aid they had available, nor when or how it would be distributed. The inclusion of local aid workers in this opaque framework turned a process that relied on community and neighborhood ties into an impersonal machine that fostered doubt and suspicion and ultimately hindered the community’s ability to engage in collective political action.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, International Security, International Affairs, and Occupation
Political Geography:: Palestine

4718. Beneficial Ownership: The Global State of Play

Author:: Center on International Cooperation
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: Beneficial owners are defined as those who are the natural persons who ultimately own/control a customer and/or the natural persons on whose behalf a transaction is being conducted. It also includes those persons who exercise ultimate control over a legal person or arrangement. The availability of this information is a key requirement of international tax transparency and the fight against financial crime.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4719. A deteriorating security environment in Europe

Author:: Thomas Wilkins
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: The October 2018 Warsaw Security Forum (WSF) gathered government, military, and think tank personnel from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and beyond (including a delegation from Japan) in one of Europe’s most prominent Track 1.5 dialogues to focus upon the deteriorating regional and global security environment. Just as the emphasis of their Asian counterparts has been on revisionist challenges to the regional security order in the Indo-Pacific, the WSF focused upon the aggressive behavior of the Russian Federation (Russia) toward its neighbours in CEE and its so-called “near abroad”. As the host country celebrating 100 years of independence, Poland, along with its CEE counterparts in NATO/EU, are countries that are acutely aware of the dangers presented by Russian actions and know that, as history has taught them, their sovereignty cannot be taken for granted. A disintegration of the liberal world order, international law, and the Transatlantic relationship, would leave small, and even medium-sized, states at the potential mercy of more powerful and aggressive neighbours
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4720. A Comparative Study of the Kashmir Conflict Coverage in Pakistani and Indian Press

Author:: Ayesha Saddiqa and Farish Ullah Yousafzai
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The paper compares the coverage of J&K conflict in the Pakistani and Indian English press. The objective of the study is to figure out the differences in the coverage of Kashmir conflict by the Indian and Pakistani press along with determining the prominence of war or peace frames in the coverage. Content Analysis was carried out of the news stories published on the international and national pages of English daily The Nation and Dawn from Pakistani press and English daily The Hindu and Times of India from the Indian press. The results revealed that war framing was recorded as the most dominant coverage pattern with respect to Kashmir conflict. War frames were more dominant in the Indian press coverage as compared to the Pakistani press and the differences in the coverage of the press of the two countries are significant.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4721. The US War on Terror in Afghanistan and its Impact on FATA in Pakistan

Author:: Fazal Wahid
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The US counterattack on Afghanistan in October 2001 changed in the overall security structure of the region. The Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters escaped the US bombing of the Tora Bora in Afghanistan and crossed into the FATA region of Pakistan. Pakistan’s military operations against these militants in the FATA provided a boost to the latter’s cause and almost the entire FATA experienced a sort of Talibanization. The US war in Afghanistan had its spillover effect in FATA. Terrorist activities unleashed in the entire Pakistan and turmoil in Afghanistan added fuel to this situation. FATA’s special constitutional status hwas addeding to the woes of Pakistan and subsequently FATA was merged with the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). This paper analyzes the impact of the US war in Afghanistan on the FATA region of Pakistan.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4722. Bureaucratic Efficiency as Determinant of Trade Openness in SAARC Countries

Author:: Rabia Saghir
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The study explores how bureaucratic efficiency aeffects international trade in Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and Sri Llanka. A composite indicator of government effectiveness is used to measure bureaucratic efficiency and the model is estimated by using the SYS-GMM. It is well recognized that bureaucratic efficiency is vital to the enhancement of trade, whereas the result shows that a negative relationship exists between bureaucratic efficiency and trade openness. Similarly, encouraging links exists between government size and international trade as the government provides different services to enhance the trade inat the international market
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4723. A Comparative and Narrative Analysis: Executive Leader as Team Builder at the University Level

Author:: Uzma Syeda Gilani
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: This study aims to compare and narrate the difference in the role of team building, through self-assessed inventory by VC (Executive Leader), observation sheet filled in by co-workers as well as the narrated view of executive leaders regarding team-building of the newly established University of the region. A concurrent triangulation mixed-method design was followed. Vice-Chancellors of all Public universities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan constitute the population of the study. According to the design, the same sampling technique was used. Four ViceChancellors of newly established Universities and five observers among their co-workers of each VC were taken as respondents of the study. There were significant differences among the self-assessed views of VCs regarding team building and views of their coworkers and narrative views of executive leaders at newly established universities. For team leadership, egalitarian style, knowledge of emotional intelligence and target-oriented communication are recommended.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4724. HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series

Author:: David Deming
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) jobs are a key contributor to economic growth and national competitiveness. Yet STEM workers are perceived to be in short supply. This paper shows that the “STEM shortage” phenomenon is explained by technological change, which introduces new job skills and makes old ones obsolete. We find that the initially high economic return to applied STEM degrees declines by more than 50 percent in the first decade of working life. This coincides with a rapid exit of college graduates from STEM occupations. Using detailed job vacancy data, we show that STEM jobs change especially quickly over time, leading to flatter age-earnings profiles as the skills of older cohorts became obsolete. Our findings highlight the importance of technology-specific skills in explaining life-cycle returns to education, and show that STEM jobs are the leading edge of technology diffusion in the labor market.
Topic:: International Organization, International Political Economy, Science and Technology, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4725. HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series

Author:: Maciej Kotowski
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: This paper investigates the formation of production and trading networks in an economy with general interdependencies and complex property rights. The right to exclude,a core tenet of property, grants asset owners a form of monopoly power that influences granular economic interactions. Equilibrium networks reflect the distribution of these ownership claims. Inefficient production networks may endure in equilibrium as firms multi-source to mitigate hold-up risk. Short supply chains also reduce this risk, but may preclude the production of complex goods. A generalized Top Trading Cycles algorithm, applicable to a production economy, identifies equilibrium outcomes in the model. Such outcomes can be decentralized via a price system.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, Intellectual Property/Copyright, and National & provincial initiatives
Political Geography:: America

4726. Corporate Purpose in Play: The Role of ESG Investing

Author:: John Gerard Ruggie
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: On August 19, 2019, the U.S. Business Roundtable (BR), comprising the CEOs of more than 200 of America’s largest corporations, issued a new mission statement on “the purpose of a corporation” (BR, 2019a). The press release noted that each periodic update on principles of corporate governance since 1997 had endorsed the principle of maximizing shareholder value. In contrast, the new statement commits signatory CEOs “to lead their companies for the benefit of all stakeholders – customers, employees, suppliers, communities and shareholders” (BR, 2019b). “[Milton] Friedman must be turning in his grave,” a Fortune magazine article declared (Murray, 2019)
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4727. Bound to Happen: Explanation Bias in Historical Analysis

Author:: Richard Zeckhauser
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: This paper argues that historical analysis, necessarily written with hindsight, often underestimates the uncertainties of the past. We call this tendency explanation bias. This bias leads individuals – including professional historians – to imply greater certainty in causal analyses than the evidence justifies. Their analyses will treat what is plausible to be probable. We offer a few intuitions about why explanation bias exists, its relation to other well-established psychological biases, what it leads to, and how it might be combatted. Appreciating the depth of uncertainty and ignorance in our world is critical for accurately understanding, interpreting, and drawing from the past to illuminate the present and the near future
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4728. Targeted Debt Relief and the Origins of Financial Distress: Experimental Evidence from Distressed Credit Card Borrowers

Author:: Will Dobbie
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: We study the drivers of financial distress using a large-scale field experiment that offered randomly selected borrowers a combination of (i) immediate payment reductions to target short- run liquidity constraints and (ii) delayed interest write-downs to target long-run debt constraints. We identify the separate e?ects of the payment reductions and interest write-downs using both the experiment and cross-sectional variation in treatment intensity. We find that the interest write-downs significantly improved both financial and labor market outcomes, despite not taking effect for three to five years. In sharp contrast, there were no positive e?ects of the more immediate payment reductions. These results run counter to the widespread view that financial distress is largely the result of short-run constraints.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4729. The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration

Author:: Will Dobbie
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: We estimate the causal effects of parental incarceration on children’s short- and long-run outcomes using administrative data from Sweden. Our empirical strategy exploits exogenous variation in parental incarceration from the random assignment of criminal defendants to judges with different incarceration tendencies. We find that the incarceration of a parent in childhood leads to a significant increase in teen crime and significant decreases in educational attainment and adult employment. The effects are concentrated among children from the most disadvantaged families, where criminal convictions increase by 10 percentage points, high school graduation decreases by 25 percentage points, and employment at age 25 decreases by 29 percentage points. In contrast, there are no detectable effects among children from more advantaged families. These results suggest that the incarceration of parents with young children may significantly increase the intergenerational persistence of poverty and criminal behavior, even in affluent countries with extensive social safety nets.
Topic:: International Political Economy, International Affairs, and Prisons/Penal Systems
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4730. Measuring Bias in Consumer Lending

Author:: Will Dobbie
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: This paper tests for bias in consumer lending using administrative data from a high-cost lender in the United Kingdom. We motivate our analysis using a new principal-agent model of bias, which predicts that profits should be higher for the most illiquid loan applicants at the margin if loan examiners are biased. We identify the profitability of marginal applicants using the quasi-random assignment of loan examiners. Consistent with our model, we find significant bias against immigrant and older applicants when using the firm’s preferred measure of long-run profits, but not when using the short-run measure used to evaluate examiner performance. Keywords: Discrimination, Consumer Credit
Topic:: Debt, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4731. Using Behavioral Insights to Improve Truancy Notifications

Author:: Todd Rogers
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Many states mandate districts or schools notify parents when students have missed multiple unexcused days of school. We report a randomized experiment (N = 131,312) evaluating the impact of sending parents truancy notifications modified to target behavioral barriers that can hinder effective parental engagement. Modified truancy notifications that used simplified language, emphasized parental efficacy, and highlighted the negative incremental effects of missing school reduced absences by 0.07 days compared to the standard, legalistic, and punitively-worded notification—an estimated 40% improvement. This work illustrates how behavioral insights and randomized experiments can be used to improve administrative communications in education.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4732. How do global supply chains exacerbate gender-based violence against women in the global south?

Author:: Garcia Isabella
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:: In 2018/2019 the CGPE launched an annual Gender & Global Political Economy Undergraduate Essay Prize competition, open to all undergraduate students within the School of Global Studies. The winner of the 2018/2019 competition is Isabella Garcia for the essay “How do global supply chains exacerbate gender-based violence against women in the Global South?” Isabella graduated with a BA in International Relations and Development in July and will join the MA cohort in our Global Political Economy programme for 2019/2020. Given the very strong field of submissions, the award committee further decided to award a second-place prize to Yume Tamiya for the essay “Does the rise of the middle class disguise existing inequalities in Brazil?”. Yume graduated with a BA in International Development with International Education and Development. We are delighted to publish both of these excellent essays in the CGPE Working Paper series.
Topic:: Economics, Gender Issues, Women, Gender Based Violence, and Global South
Political Geography:: Africa, Latin America, Mexico, and Democratic Republic of Congo

4733. Does the rise of the middle class disguise existing inequalities in Brazil?

Author:: Yume Tamiya
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:: In 2018/2019 the CGPE launched an annual Gender & Global Political Economy Undergraduate Essay Prize competition, open to all undergraduate students within the School of Global Studies. The winner of the 2018/2019 competition is Isabella Garcia for the essay “How do global supply chains exacerbate gender-based violence against women in the Global South?” Isabella graduated with a BA in International Relations and Development in July and will join the MA cohort in our Global Political Economy programme for 2019/2020. Given the very strong field of submissions, the award committee further decided to award a second-place prize to Yume Tamiya for the essay “Does the rise of the middle class disguise existing inequalities in Brazil?”. Yume graduated with a BA in International Development with International Education and Development. We are delighted to publish both of these excellent essays in the CGPE Working Paper series.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Inequality, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Brazil and Latin America

4734. Why does the IMF assign labor conditions? The Burden of Adjustment, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Labor Conditions

Author:: Saliha Metinsoy
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:: Why does the International Monetary Fund (IMF) assign more stringent labor conditions in some cases and not others? This paper argues that the Fund’s bureaucratic organizational culture and neoliberal economic beliefs dictate its interpretation of international economics and predict the stringency of labor conditions in its programs. Particularly, the Fund staff envisage that lower unit labor costs would indirectly increase competitiveness, boost exports, and contribute to the balance of payments in fixed exchange rate regimes, where currency depreciation is not possible. To this end, the Fund assigns more stringent labor conditions in fixed regimes compared to floating ones. To test this theory, the paper uses a mixed method. It firstly demonstrates the association between exchange rate regimes and the stringency of labor conditions in Fund programs in a global sample. It then complements this analysis by showing particular organizational habits and beliefs at work in two cases, namely in Latvia and Hungary in 2008 under their respective IMF programs. Furthermore, the paper shows that distribution of income away from labor groups (i.e. lowered wages) is in fact by design in IMF programs in an attempt to increase competitiveness in fixed regimes.
Topic:: Economics, International Monetary Fund, International Development, and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Hungary, and Latvia

4735. US-Iran Showdown Begins in Iraq

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Ktaib Hizballah, with its political, military, economic and mafia-like aspects, is the most potent enemy of the US and its allies in Iraq today.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4736. Forecasting the Mideast in 2020

Author:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel must be ready to tackle Iran militarily on its own and fight a pre-emptive war with Hizballah.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

4737. The Russian Role in World Affairs: A View from Israel

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It would undoubtedly serve Israel’s interest for Russia to draw closer to the US on a wide range of issues, and above all, on Iran.
Topic:: Hegemony, Strategic Stability, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

4738. The Gulf: Signs of a Partial Thaw in the Intra-Sunni Cold War?

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel needs to make clear to Washington the harm done in the region, and the potential for more harm, by the perception of American policy disarray, weakness and withdrawal.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

4739. The Battle for Northwestern Syria: Better Sooner than Later

Author:: Aiman Mansour
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It is in Israel’s interest that Assad regain control of northwestern Syria. Aside from improving the economic situation in Syria, this may increase Israeli leverage in the campaign against Iran’s military entrenchment.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Syria

4740. Erdogan’s Dangerous Diagonal: What can be Done to Counter Turkey’s EEZ claims?

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel needs enhanced naval capability for the protection of its own EEZ and for the creation of a proper balance of power in the eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Navy, Maritime, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

4741. American Sanctions and Military Action against Iran

Author:: Udi Levi
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: A critical point has been reached where sanctions and military conflict connect. Tehran needs and seeks a limited military confrontation with the West in order to shore-up its legitimacy at home.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Sanctions, Conflict, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4742. The Fighting Continues in Northern Syria

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Kurds vow to defend themselves—alone if necessary—against Syria, Turkey and Russia.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

4743. Through a Different Lens: The Mideast as Seen from Doha

Author:: Micky Aharonson
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: At a recent conference on the Mideast economy in Doha, which included the participation of Israeli scholars, discussions highlighted changes in the regional balance of power. Acceptance of Assad’s rule in Syria is growing, but so are questions about how Syria’s rehabilitation will be financed. And some Iranians are signaling that Tehran is willing to make political compromises to alleviate economic pressures.
Topic:: Economics, Leadership, Political stability, Conflict, and Academia
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Syria

4744. Protests in Iran and Trump’s Maximum Pressure Campaign

Author:: Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: America must provide Iranian demonstrators with access to the Internet to bolster the protests.
Topic:: Governance, Social Movement, Leadership, Conflict, and Protests
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4745. Russia-Israel Relations: Expectations and Reality

Author:: Micky Aharonson
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Syria remains the main point of contention between the two countries.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

4746. Making the Best of US Withdrawal from Syria

Author:: Aiman Mansour
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Given Iran’s presence in Syria, Israel must employ focused, operative rhetoric and policy versus the strategic threats it faces.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Military Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

4747. Editing Biosecurity: Needs and Strategies for Governing Genome Editing

Author:: Gregory Falco, Martin Eling, Virginia Miller, Lawrence A. Gordon, Shaun Shuxun Wang, Joan T. Schmit, Russell Thomas, Mauro Elvedi, Thomas Maillart, Emy Donavan, Simon Dejung, Matthias Weber, Eric Durand, Franklin Nutter, Uzi Scheffer, Gil Arazi, Gilbert Ohana, and Herbert Lin
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:: Cyber risk as a research topic has attracted considerable academic, industry and government attention over the past 15 years. Unfortunately, research progress has been modest and has not been sufficient to answer the “call to action” in many prestigious committee and agency reports. To date, industry and academic research on cyber risk in all its complexity has been piecemeal and uncoordinated – which is typical of emergent, pre-paradigmatic fields. Further complicating matters is the multidisciplinary characteristics of cyber risk. In order to significantly advance the pace of research progress, a group of scholars, industry practitioners and policymakers from around the world present a research agenda for cyber risk and cyber insurance, which accounts for the variety of fields relevant to the problem space. We propose a cyber risk unified concept model that identifies where certain disciplines of study can add value. The concept model can also be used to identify collaboration opportunities across the major research questions. In this agenda, we unpack the major research questions into manageable projects and tactical questions that need to be addressed.
Topic:: Security, Infrastructure, Governance, Cybersecurity, Risk, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4748. 2019 Guide to Women Leaders in International Affairs

Author:: Women's Foreign Policy Group (WFPG)
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Women's Foreign Policy Group (WFPG)
Abstract:: WFPG's Guide to Women Leaders in International Affairs highlights women shaping foreign policy around the world and the role that they play as leaders, diplomats, and policymakers. The Guide provides an index of prominent women from across the international community, including heads of state and government, government ministers and diplomats, and leaders of international organizations and corporations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, United Nations, Women, Leadership, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4749. Responding to Earthquakes

Author:: Helene Juillard and Joris Jourdain
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: In fragile or developing states, large-scale earthquakes can turn back the development clock by years or even decades. It is not possible to eradicate earthquakes, but as most of the areas prone to earthquakes are known, it is possible to prepare and learn from past experiences in order to strengthen the humanitarian response and to ‘build back better’. This Lessons Paper reviews relevant grey and published literature to draw lessons from previous humanitarian responses following any type of earthquake, provided it occurred on dry land. The lessons originate from past humanitarian responses across sectors. In light of the literature review conducted for this paper, it appears that post-earthquake humanitarian responses mainly span the following sectors: debris management, shelter, health, livelihoods and economic recovery, water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), education, food security, nutrition and protection.
Topic:: Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, Earthquake, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:: Nepal and Global Focus

4750. Beyond the Numbers: How qualitative approaches can improve monitoring of humanitarian action

Author:: Amelie Sundberg
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: This paper looks at potential ways to improve the capture and uptake of qualitative data in monitoring of humanitarian programmes. The first section of the paper dispels three pervasive myths about the use of qualitative approaches in the humanitarian sector. The second section of the paper identifies promising practice used by humanitarian agencies when monitoring their programmes. This section should provide readers with ideas on how they can improve their qualitative approaches to monitoring within their own organisation. They should be considered as a menu of options to try depending on the varying context, capacities and monitoring needs of organisations, projects and teams. This is one of a three-part series of ALNAP papers about monitoring in humanitarian action. These three papers address specific challenges to monitoring humanitarian action as identified by ALNAP Members in the previous Scoping Paper. The series of papers look to inform humanitarian practitioners interested in using qualitative approaches for programme results monitoring, including M&E advisors and managers, technical sectoral leads and programme decision-makers.
Topic:: International Organization, Qualitative Research, Monitoring, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4751. Back to the Drawing Board: How to improve monitoring of outcomes

Author:: Neil Dillon and Amelie Sundberg
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: How can organisations provide holistic, meaningful analysis of the outcomes achieved by their activities? How can they situate their programming among the changes taking place around them? How can they understand the full set of changes experienced by an individual affected by crisis? This paper aims to encourage humanitarian agencies to step back and reflect on what is currently being done to measure outcomes and how it can be improved in the future. It starts by identifying core assumptions and foundational thinking behind current monitoring systems. It then outlines issues arising from current practice, and concludes by raising questions about to think about this differently.
Topic:: International Organization, Monitoring, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4752. Stabanisation: A discussion paper about disrupting backlash by reclaiming LGBTI voices in the African church landscape

Author:: Hanzline Davids, Abongile Matyila, Charlene van der Walt, and Sindi Sithole
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Other Foundation
Abstract:: The title of the convening that gave rise to this collaborative reflection Breaking though the Backlash: Transformative encounters between LGBTI people and Churches in Africa, implies a level of visible and tangible progress in pursuing justice for LGBTI people within the African faith landscape and a coordinated push-back against progressive gains and constructive progress. Consequently this contribution starts by critically engaging the African contextual faith landscape and reflecting on examples of both progress and emerging backlash when it comes to the full inclusion of LGBTI people within African faith communities. Following from this, we explore the contours of a possible theology of liberation for LGBTI people in the African context. We agree with Makau Matua who argues that to engage with backlash we require “…thoughtful analysis, courageous advocacy and fundamental reform.”
Topic:: Religion, Christianity, LGBT+, Advocacy, Inclusion, and Activism
Political Geography:: Africa

4753. Get Real: A discussion paper about whether a compliance-based approach to LGBTI economic empowerment can work in South Africa

Author:: Tracy-Lynn Humby
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Other Foundation
Abstract:: In 1996, South Africa made human rights history by being the first country in the world to prohibit unfair discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation in its constitution. But 25 years after this resounding document was passed by the Constitutional Assembly, the lived realities of most LGBTI South Africans lag well behind the constitution’s ringing promises.
Topic:: Human Rights, Employment, Discrimination, LGBT+, and Compliance
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

4754. A Dialogue of Rivers

Author:: Kishalay Bhattacharjee and Shiv Visvanathan
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:: Welcome to a series of talks and dialogues that hopes to challenge the imagination of the ‘mainstream’. The river conversation is critical in re-evaluating histories, reconnecting civilisations, cultures and peoples, ideas and regions and opening streams of thought for a future with exciting possibilities. However, why do we need to talk about rivers? Titash Ekti Nadir Naam is a very well-known film by Ritwik Ghatak, but it is also a book written by Adwaita Mallabarman, where he writes, ‘the bosom of Bengal is draped with rivers and their tributaries, twisted and intertwined, like tangled locks streaked with white foamy waves’, and he describes the river like a human being. There are an estimated 71 riverine novels written in Bengal. Yet, very few pieces of this literature have come from fishermen, boatmen or even floodplains farmers themselves. Padma Nadir Majhi published in 1934, is top-quality riverine writing written by Manik Bandopadhyay. However, as Adwaita Mallabarman said that for all the great artistry, the author of Padma Nadir Majhi came from an educated Brahmin family, and knew of the life of the fisherfolk only from the margins. It reflected the Brahmin son’s romantic view. Titash… is probably the only example of a riverine novel written by a fisherman’s son. Today’s discussion is an attempt to develop a river imagination and let the river speak!
Topic:: History, Culture, Civilization, and Rivers
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

4755. A Dialogue of Rivers: The River & I

Author:: Kishalay Bhattacharjee, Parineeta Dandekar, and Parineeta Roy
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:: How many of us have read river stories? Or river poems? How many of us have known a river? Most of us have crossed a river on a bridge, or may have taken a boat or a ferry, but I’m not sure how many of us have actually touched the river or felt the river. The river is not just cusecs of water that ecologists love to define. The river has its own rhythm. To be able to bring back rivers, to be able to bring back rivers to life, perhaps we need to understand its rhythm. We need to understand rivers as a body interconnected with ourselves. River Dialogues is an attempt to have a free flowing conversation, as free flowing as a river should be and can be without dams coming in between, and try and re-imagine or possibly imagine for most of us who have not felt the river, seen the river, or imagined the river in a very long time. Joining me today are Sumana Roy, and Parineeta Dandekar. Parineeta is a river researcher based in the US. She’s an ecologist who finds herself moving towards understanding rivers and its ‘Bhav-taal’. Sumana Roy is a poet, writer and a teacher who has given us some of the most lyrical insights into our forgotten lives. Her first book, How I Became a Tree is a ‘love song on plants and trees’ and introduces the idea of ‘plant humanities’ and how to live with ‘tree time’. She is now working on water/rivers. The idea of having these two persons talk about the river is about gaining perspectives on the river. In earlier episodes we travelled down Sahibi, the dead river of Delhi, Narmada, Adyar, Teesta, Tsangpo, Siang, Brahmaputra, Jamuna, Meghna, Padma, Ganga and the Yamuna.
Topic:: Climate Change, Water, Culture, Ecology, and Rivers
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

4756. How Do Technical Barriers to Trade Affect Foreign Direct Investment?

Author:: Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: Trade liberalisation and the EU enlargement in the past two decades allowed European multinational enterprises (MNEs) to benefit from production fragmentation in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE). Recent studies show that market regulations and standards that are embedded within Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs) might not necessarily hamper trade but improve the quality of products, production procedures, and market efficiencies. However, complying with the regulations embedded in the TBTs imposed by a host country might be costly enough to discourage MNEs from investing there. Furthermore, MNEs from countries that impose more regulations and standards might be more capable of investing abroad. This article analyses how TBTs imposed by both home and host countries affect inward FDI stocks in the CESEE countries during the period 1996-2016. The results suggest that Specific Trade Concerns (STCs) raised on trade-restrictive TBTs imposed by CESEE countries induce ‘tariff jumping’ motives of investment to these countries, while regular TBTs as indications of positive externalities and efficiency gains at home discourage outward FDI. Besides, FDI stocks by non-EU28 countries are found to be stimulated by regular quality TBTs imposed by the host economies.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Regulation, and Tariffs
Political Geography:: Europe

4757. Dying Light: War and Trade of the Separatist-Controlled Areas of Ukraine

Author:: Artem Kochnev
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: The paper investigates how war and the war-related government policies affected economic activity of the separatist-controlled areas of Ukraine. The paper applies a quasi-experimental study design to estimate the impact of two events on the separatist-controlled areas: the introduction of the separatist control and the introduction of the second round of the trade ban, which was imposed by the government of Ukraine on the separatist-controlled territories in 2017. Using a difference-in-difference estimation procedure that controls for the yearly and monthly effects, individual fixed effects, and the region-specific time shocks, the study finds that the separatist rule decreased the economic activity by 38% in the Donetsk region and 51% in the Luhansk region according to the preferred specifications. At the same time, the trade ban of the year 2017 against the major industrial enterprises of the separatist-controlled areas decreased luminosity by 20%. The paper argues that the trade disruptions due to the war actions were nested within the negative effect of the separatist rule and accounted for half of it.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, War, Conflict, Macroeconomics, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

4758. Dynamic Interactions Between Financial and Macroeconomic Imbalances: A Panel VAR Analysis

Author:: Amat Adarov
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: We use Bayesian and GMM panel VAR frameworks to study interactions between financial cycles and macroeconomic imbalances based on a global sample of 24 countries spanning the period 1998‑2012. We find that financial cycles play an important role in shaping macroeconomic imbalances with expansions inducing economic overheating and a downward pressure on public debt-to-GDP ratios, and vice versa. Bank-based economies exhibit a deeper and faster response of business cycles to financial misalignments, while the impact in market-based economies is milder, but more persistent, as well as more significant for current account and public debt dynamics. Financial cycles invoke a particularly strong reaction of current account balances and especially public debt ratios in the euro area.
Topic:: Finance, Business, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe

4759. Testing the Smile Curve: Functional Specialisation in GVCs and Value Creation

Author:: Roman Stöllinger
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: According to the ‘smile curve hypothesis’ the potential for generating value added varies significantly across the various functions along a firm’s value chain. It suggests in particular that the production stage is the least promising value chain function in the entire manufacturing process. This logic implies that countries specialising as ‘factory economies’ are likely to generate comparatively little value added. To shed light on the relationship between functional specialisation along the value chain and value creation, this paper develops measures for functional specialisation derived from project-level data on greenfield FDI for a global sample of countries. These measures keep the industry and the functional dimension of specialisation strictly apart. They are used to test econometrically the negative relationship between value added creation and functional specialisation in production as predicted by the smile curve hypothesis.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, European Union, Economy, NAFTA, Manufacturing, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:: Europe and East Asia

4760. The Impact of Labour Market Institutions and Capital Accumulation on Unemployment: Evidence for the OECD, 1985-2013

Author:: Philipp Heimberger
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper provides econometric evidence on the impact of labour market regulations on (‘structural’) unemployment rates. Based on a data set for 23 OECD countries over the time period 1985‑2013, the panel regression results suggest that standard institutional labour market indicators – such as employment protection legislation, trade union density, tax wedge, minimum wages – largely underperform in explaining (medium-term) unemployment, while cyclical macroeconomic factors – in particular capital accumulation, but also the long-term real interest rate – are essential determinants. These results underscore that the existing macroeconometric evidence in favour of the view that labour market rigidities are at the heart of increased ‘structural’ unemployment in advanced economies is modest at best. Some labour market variables do have an impact on unemployment, but it is in general smaller than the impact of relevant macroeconomic variables. To understand the development of unemployment in OECD countries, researchers and policy-makers therefore should consider aggregate demand dynamics and focus on capital accumulation.
Topic:: Migration, Labor Issues, Institutions, Macroeconomics, Unemployment, Labor Market, and Capital Accumulation
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

4761. Does Economic Globalisation Affect Income Inequality? A Meta-analysis

Author:: Philipp Heimberger
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: A large volume of econometric literature has studied the impact of economic globalisation on income inequality around the world. However, reported econometric estimates vary substantially which makes it difficult to draw valid conclusions. This paper presents a quantitative summary and analysis of existing estimates regarding the globalisation-inequality relationship. We used a new data set consisting of 1254 observations from 123 peer-reviewed papers. By applying meta-analysis and meta-regression methods, we obtained several main findings. First, globalisation has a (small-to-moderate) positive impact on income inequality considering the total population of estimates. The average effect is robustly different from zero suggesting that globalisation increases income inequality. Second, while the effect of trade globalisation is small, financial globalisation shows a more sizable and significantly stronger inequality-increasing impact. Third, the cumulative evidence rejects theoretical accounts according to which economic globalisation reduces within-country income inequality in developing countries as the meta-analysis establishes an average inequality-increasing impact in both advanced and developing countries. Fourth, education and technology moderate the impact of globalisation on income inequality. Fifth, we tested for various other factors that could cause heterogeneity in the reported estimates including differences in the econometric specifications, the income inequality measures and data set used and publication characteristics.
Topic:: Globalization, Finance, Income Inequality, Macroeconomics, Trade, and Meta-analysis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4762. Financial Cycles in Europe: Dynamics, Synchronicity and Implications for Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Imbalances

Author:: Amat Adarov
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: Using dynamic factor models and state-space techniques we quantify financial cycles for twenty European countries over the period 1960Q1–2015Q4 capturing imbalances across credit, housing, bond and equity markets. The paper documents the existence of slow-moving and persistent financial cycles for all countries in the sample, many of which also exhibit high cross-country synchronicity. Spillover analysis points at the significant role the global financial cycle and a common latent region-specific factor, the European financial cycle, play in shaping national financial market dynamics. Estimations using Bayesian panel VAR models to assess interactions between external and internal macroeconomic imbalances suggest that financial cycles are an important driver of business cycles and public debt dynamics, with much stronger shock transmission observed in the euro area and systemic European economies.
Topic:: European Union, Finance, Business, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, and Financial Stability
Political Geography:: Europe

4763. Employment Gaps Between Refugees, Migrants and Natives: Evidence from Austrian Register Based Labour Market Data

Author:: Stefan Jestl, Michael Landesmann, Sebastian Leitner, and Barbara Wanek-Zajic
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper analyses labour market integration in Austria of non-European refugees originating from middle and low income countries for the period 2009-2018. We assess their probability of being employed in comparison to non-humanitarian migrants, European third country immigrants and natives. We draw on a register based panel dataset covering the complete labour market careers of all individuals residing in Austria. We control for macro level explanatory variables (e.g. the labour market situation at the time and the place of settlement) and individual characteristics. The analysis shows that initial refugee employment gaps are large in the first years when labour market access is difficult. After a period of seven years the unconditional gap between refugees and natives declines to 30 percentage points, similar to the one of non-humanitarian migrants, but the gap is still further decreasing. After controlling for a set of additional explanatory variables, the conditional gap amounts to only 10 percentage points at the same time. Moreover, our analysis provides insights into differences between employment gaps across population subgroups of immigrant groups and natives by gender, age and education level.
Topic:: Employment, Refugees, Labor Market, Migrants, and Income Distribution
Political Geography:: Europe and Austria

4764. Various Domains of Integration of Refugees and their Interrelationships: A Study of Recent Refugee Inflows in Austria

Author:: Michael Landesmann and Sandra Leitner
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper addresses the complexity of, and the interrelationships between, two important aspects of integration of refugees in Austria, namely labour market integration and social integration. While labour market integration is captured in terms of being employed as compared to being unemployed or inactive, social integration distinguishes between social networks and their ethnic composition and social capital. It identifies the key determinants of each of these domains of integration and investigates the direction as well as the size of interdependencies among them. The analysis uses a unique dataset built on the basis of a survey of about 1,600 refugees from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran who had come to Austria since 2010. The analysis establishes an important causal link between social integration and labour market integration (i.e. employment). Both social network effects with Austrians as well as with co-ethnics are important in this context but the former is more powerful than the latter. It shows that both education and length of stay are key determinants of successful labour market integration. Furthermore, tests regarding the relevance of language command for both social and labour market integration show the strong importance of speaking and understanding German, and much less so, of writing German.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Labor Market, and Social Integration
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Europe, Iran, South Asia, Middle East, Syria, and Austria

4765. The Effect of Stressors and Resilience Factors on Mental Health of Recent Refugees in Austria

Author:: Isabella Buber-Ennser, Judith Kohlenberger, Michael Landesmann, Sebastian Leitner, and Bernhard Rengs
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: Given the exposure to stressors in their home countries, during their migration and in the phase after arrival, refugees are particularly vulnerable to mental health problems. At the same time, their access to adequate healthcare and other social infrastructure might be hampered by factors such as lack of knowledge as well as cultural and language barriers. In addition to other factors, this reduces their ability to take part in social activities as well as their integration into the labour market of the host societies. We examine the prevalence of mental disorders in the refugee population from Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria who arrived in Austria recently, drawing on data from a refugee survey conducted between December 2017 and April 2018 in Austria with a specific focus on Vienna, Salzburg, Graz, Linz and Innsbruck (FIMAS+INTEGRATION). We found a high share of refugees (32%) to have moderate or severe mental health problems. In particular, young refugees (15-34 years) show higher risk levels. When investigating the effects of stressors on the mental health situation, we found a positive association with e.g. experienced discrimination in Austria and the fear for partners and children left behind. In contrast, the results show a negative correlation for a couple of mitigating factors that foster resilience, i.e. proficiency in the German language, being employed (including volunteer work), having more supportive relationships and satisfaction with the housing situation.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Mental Health, Resilience, Labor Market, and Social Integration
Political Geography:: Europe and Austria

4766. Uncertain Futures: Imaginaries, Narratives, and Calculative Technologies

Author:: Jens Beckert and Richard Bronk
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: Dynamic capitalist economies are characterised by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. How then do economic actors form expectations and decide how to act despite this uncertainty? This paper focuses on the role played by imaginaries, narratives, and calculative technologies, and argues that the market impact of shared calculation devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of ‘narrative economics’ and a theory of fictional (rather than rational) expectations. When expectations cannot be anchored in objective probability functions, the future belongs to those with the market, political, or rhetorical power to make their models or stories count. The paper also explores the dangers of analytical monocultures and the discourse of best practice in conditions of uncertainty, and considers the link between uncertainty and some aspects of populism.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Capitalism, Innovation, Uncertainty, and Calculation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4767. Competing with Whom? European Tax Competition, the “Great Fragmentation of the Firm,” and Varieties of FDI Attraction Profiles

Author:: Javier Garcia-Bernardo and Arjan Reurink
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: International tax competition is generally framed as states competing for foreign direct investment (FDI), and analyses of the phenomenon draw heavily on FDI statistics. In and of themselves, however, FDI statistics are merely a quantification of the value of investment projects and tell us little about the heterogeneity of these projects and the distinct patterns of competitive dynamics between countries they generate. In this paper, we create a more sophisticated understanding of international tax competition by pointing out its variegated nature. To do so, we introduce the notion of the “great fragmentation of the firm” to distinguish between five categories of FDI: manufacturing affiliates, shared service centers, research and development facilities, intermediate holding companies, and top holding companies. Using a novel combination of firm-level and country-level data, we identify for each category of FDI which European Union member states are most successful in attracting it, what macro-institutional and tax arrangements they rely on for doing so, and what benefits they receive from it in terms of tax revenues and employment creation. In this way we were able to identify five distinct FDI attraction profiles and show that, rather than being a game of all against all, tax competition in the European Union increasingly takes place amongst subsets of countries that compete for similar categories of FDI.
Topic:: Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Global Value Chains, Wealth, Tax Competition, and Transnational Corporations
Political Geography:: Europe

4768. Innovation and Precarity: Workplace Discourse in Twenty-First Century Capitalism

Author:: Sidney Rothstein
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes discourse in the workplace in order to explain puzzling patterns of precarity in twenty-first century capitalism. Tech workers’ central role in digital transformation endows them with labor market power reflected by their high wages, but during economic downturns, when demand for their skills decreases, even they are vulnerable to downsizing. Comparing workers’ responses to downsizing at two sites of an American tech firm, this paper shows how management disempowers workers by framing the employment relationship in a financial discourse. Disposing workers to believe that their jobs are threatened by market forces beyond their control, rather than by managers’ decisions, this financial discourse undermines labor’s established power resources by persuading workers that mobilizing will be ineffective in protecting their jobs. Relying on detailed case study evidence, this paper demonstrates the importance of discourse to explaining variation in worker power. It argues that the workplace should play a larger role in comparative political economy, particularly in explaining labor market outcomes related to digital transformation.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Hegemony, Capitalism, Discourse, Knowledge Economy, Power, and Digital Platform Workers
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4769. A Politics of Hope: The Making of Brazil’s Post-Neoliberal New Middle Class

Author:: Moises Kopper
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: How does hope emerge as a life-altering possibility against the backdrop of economic precarity, political disregard, and soaring inequality? This paper explores the role of hope as both a political-economic construct and an infrastructural affect in the wake of policy implementation. It draws on a five-year ethnography among community leaders, housing activists, planners, politicians, state officials, and market representatives involved in the implementation of Minha Casa Minha Vida, Brazil’s largest social housing program. In recent years, low-income projects have become the battleground for experimental, post-neoliberal forms of democratic governance via inclusive consumption. These public–private housing infrastructures give insight into the relationship between material hope and the making of Latin America’s “pink tide” new middle classes: how grassroots communities organize around hierarchies of worthiness to allocate wellbeing-enhancing state benefits, and how the uneven distribution of these benefits sustains the constitution of emerging, albeit temporary, collectives of consumer citizens.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Citizenship, Middle Class, Post-Neoliberalism, and Social Housing
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

4770. Changing Perspectives in Political Economy

Author:: Renate Mayntz
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: The history of a research field called political economy dates back to the eighteenth century, giving rise to a variety of disciplinary approaches, and experienced a renaissance as a multidisciplinary field after the Second World War, combining economic, political science, and sociological approaches. The divergence between economic globalization and the nationally restricted scope of economic policy directs interest to the relationship between politics and the economy. A quantitative analysis of the articles published in two dedicated political economy journals shows major trends of the developing research field. The relationship between politics and economy is interpreted rather widely, and research is largely focused on Western capitalist nations. In conclusion, two avenues for further research in the field are briefly discussed.
Topic:: Political Economy, Capitalism, and History
Political Geography:: Europe

4771. Strong Firms, Weak Banks: The Financial Consequences of Germany’s Export-Led Growth Model

Author:: Benjamin Braun and Richard Deeg
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: The financial foundation of Germany’s manufacturing success, according to the comparative capitalism literature, is an ample supply of long-term capital, provided to firms by a three-pillar banking system and “patient” domestic shareholders. This premise also informs the recent literature on growth models, which documents a shift towards a purely exportled growth model in Germany since the 1990s. We challenge this common assumption of continuity in the German financial system. Export-led growth, characterized by aggregate wage suppression and high corporate profits, has allowed non-financial corporations to increasingly finance investment out of retained earnings, thus lowering their dependence on external finance. This paper documents this trend and shows that business lending by banks has increasingly been constrained on the demand side, reducing the power – and relevance – of banks vis-à-vis German industry. The case study suggests a need for students of growth models to pay greater attention to the dynamic interaction between institutional sectors in general, and between the financial and the non-financial sectors in particular.
Topic:: Finance, Business, Banks, Institutions, and Corporations
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

4772. An Overview of German New Economic Sociology and the Contribution of the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies

Author:: John Wilkinson
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: New economic sociology (NES) in Germany has many similarities with economic sociology in the United States in its conscious efforts to institutionalize its presence within the broader sociology community, its promotion of a canon via handbooks, and its focus on the sociology of markets. At the same time, it differs in its stronger connections to the German classics, the greater vitality of a macrosociological tradition in Germany, the prior existence of a “bridging” generation of economic sociologists, and its later consolidation in a period of neo-liberal globalization, all of which have given NES in the German-speaking world a distinctive character. In addition, it has been influenced by successive waves of French economic sociology – Bourdieu, convention, and actor-network theory – and its bilingual academic tradition has ensured its integration into English-speaking NES. In its contribution to the sociology of markets, the fact that NES emerged later in Germany than in the US led to a greater concern with quality markets rather than commodity markets, and a concomitantly greater attention to issues of value and price. These latter themes, in their turn, establish a continuity with German economic sociology’s enduring concern with understanding the role of money. Not surprisingly, therefore, German NES is now making key contributions to discussions on the sociology of money and is increasingly situating its analysis within the broader dynamic of capitalism and current processes of financialization.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Sociology, and Discipline
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

4773. Is There a Motherhood Penalty in Academia? The Gendered Effect of Children on Academic Publications

Author:: Mark Lutter and Miriam Schröder
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: Based on data that tracks CV and publication records as well as survey information from sociologists in German academia, we examine the effects of parenthood on the publication output of male and female academics. Results indicate that having children leads to a significant decline in the number of publications by women, while not affecting the number of publications by men. We also find that the gendered effect of children on productivity hardly mitigates differences in publication output between men and women, as women still publish about 20 percent less than men after controlling for the adverse effects of children on productivity. We further find that the gendered effect of childbearing depends partly on prior levels of women’s academic achievements, which suggests mechanisms of performance-driven self-selection. Lower-performing women tend to suffer a stronger motherhood penalty, while the publication output of more successful women (who have been granted academic awards) is not reduced through childbirth. The results indicate that women are better at managing the “double burden” of parenthood and career if external, award-giving committees have bestowed prestige upon them and indicated their potential for a scientific career. Overall, these findings contribute to a better understanding of how to reduce the adverse effect of children on female publication output.
Topic:: Children, Inequality, Academia, Gender, and Motherhood
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

4774. The German Undervaluation Regime under Bretton Woods How Germany Became the Nightmare of the World Economy

Author:: Martin Höpner
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: Germany is an undervaluation regime, a regime that steers economic behavior towards deterioration of the real exchange rate and thereby towards export surpluses. This regime has brought the eurozone to the brink of collapse. But it is much older than the euro. It was established during the Bretton Woods years and has survived all subsequent European currency orders. The regime operates in two steps: competitive disinflation against trading partners; and resistance against correcting revaluations. The Bretton Woods order provided perfect conditions for the establishment and perpetuation of the regime: it was flexible enough for sufficient macroeconomic policy autonomy to bring about differential inflation rates, and sticky enough to delay and minimize revaluations.
Topic:: Political Economy, Capitalism, Exchange Rate Policy, Inflation, and Undervaluation
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

4775. Factsheet: Donald Trump as Presidential Candidate & President-Elect

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: As a candidate and eventually the Republican nominee in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections, Donald Trump’s campaign included anti-Muslim rhetoric and policy platforms, and praised anti-Muslim organizations and activists. Trump also repeatedly provided a platform to far-right, anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim, and racist activists, organizations, and news media.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Far Right, Donald Trump, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4776. Factsheet: Donald Trump as President of the United States

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The 45th President of the U.S., Donald Trump has implemented anti-Muslim policies and nominated and appointed individuals to his administration with a history of anti-Muslim animus. He has also used his Twitter to amplify and propagate anti-Muslim rhetoric. Trump’s white nationalist, anti-Muslim, and anti-immigration rhetoric has been cited as inspiration in numerous acts of violence against Muslims, immigrants, Jews, and people of color.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, Xenophobia, Donald Trump, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4777. Factsheet: European Foundation for Democracy

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The European Foundation for Democracy (EFD) is a European think tank that whose content focuses on defaming Muslim civil society organizations and attempting to exclude such organizations from the European political field. The EFD is based in Brussels and is linked to the Washington D.C.-based Foundation for the Defense of Democracy.
Topic:: Civil Society, Politics, Islamophobia, Think Tanks, Muslims, and European Foundation for Democracy (EFD)
Political Geography:: Europe

4778. Factsheet: Halal Meat Bans

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Halal is a Quranic term used to indicate what is lawful or permitted for Muslims. It refers to the requirements that Muslims must adhere to in their daily lives, including in their consumption of food and drink. Far-right political parties in Europe have begun to pass legislation that restricts the ability of Muslims to produce and consume halal meat, depicting halal slaughter as a form of resistance to cultural integration.
Topic:: Legislation, Muslims, Halal, and Meat
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4779. New Armies for a New Era Decrypting post-2011 Arab Military Reform Trends

Author:: Eleanore Ardemagni and Umberto Profazio
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Th e reaction of the Arab armies to the 2011 uprisings is a subject that has been frequently examined, but the evolution and reform of Arab armies is a neglected topic.2 In times of global interdependence, the Atlantic Alliance must be ready to understand and interact with a changing Middle East, since NATO Arab partners’ security is more and more NATO’s security, in terms of shared objectives, common threats and cooperative security. Arab armies have entered a new era: traditional obstacles to military reform, mostly due to their politicization, persist; other variables emerge from the interaction of domestic, foreign and transnational threats.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4780. State contingent debt as insurance for euro-area sovereigns

Author:: Maria Demertzis and Stavros Zenios
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Since the financial crisis, EU countries' economies have recovered to the point that they are exiting their adjustment programmes. Institutional stability mechanisms have been improved at the European level, with the promotion of the banking union and the establishment of a European Monetary Fund, for instance. However, the authors argue that such crisis contingencies should include markets in their risk-sharing, which would require better coordination with institutions.
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

4781. What Makes Experts Reliable?

Author:: Kyle L Marquardt
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: Many datasets use experts to code latent quantities of interest. However, scholars have not explored either the factors affecting expert reliability or the degree to which these factors influence estimates of latent concepts. Here we systematically analyze potential correlates of expert reliability using six randomly selected variables from a cross-national panel dataset, V-Dem v8. The V-Dem project includes a diverse group of over 3,000 experts and uses an IRT model to incorporate variation in both expert reliability and scale perception into its data aggregation process. In the process, the IRT model produces an estimate of expert reliability, which affects the relative contribution of an expert to the model. We examine a variety of factors that could correlate with reliability, and find little evidence of theoretically-untenable bias due to expert characteristics. On the other hand, there is evidence that attentive and condent experts who have a basic contextual knowledge of the concept of democracy are more reliable.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4782. How to Make Causal Inferences with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data under Selection on Observables

Author:: Matthew Blackwell and Adam Glynn
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: Repeated measurements of the same countries, people, or groups over time are vital to many fields of political science. These measurements, sometimes called time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) data, allow researchers to estimate a broad set of causal quantities, including contemporaneous and lagged treatment effects. Unfortunately, popular methods for TSCS data can only produce valid inferences for lagged effects under very strong assumptions. In this paper, we use potential outcomes to define causal quantities of interest in this settings and clarify how standard models like the autoregressive distributed lag model can produce biased estimates of these quantities due to post-treatment conditioning. We then describe two estimation strategies that avoid these post-treatment biases—inverse probability weighting and structural nested mean models—and show via simulations that they can outperform standard approaches in small sample settings. We illustrate these methods in a study of how welfare spending affects terrorism.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4783. Self-Censorship in Authoritarian States: Response bias in measures of popular support in China

Author:: Daniel Robinson and Marcus Tannenberg
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: The study of popular support for authoritarian regimes, and the comparative study of political attitudes, has long relied on the assumption that survey respondents provide truthful answers on surveys. However, when measuring regime support in closed political systems there is a distinct risk that individuals are less than forthright due to fear that their opinions may be made known to the public or the authorities. In order to test this assumption, we conducted a novel web-based survey in China in which we included four list experiments of commonly used items in the comparative literature on regime support. We find systematic bias for all four measures as a result of selfcensorship; substantially more individuals state that they support the regime with direct questioning than do when presented with our anonymous, indirect list experiments. The level of self-censorship, which ranges from 16 to 22 percentage points, is considerably higher than previously thought. Selfcensorship is further most prevalent among the wealthy, urban, female and younger respondents. These findings indicate that prior studies that have found high levels of support for the Chinese regime using these particular measures likely overestimate the true level of support. Further, crossnational studies which compare popular support across regime type may be systematically biased if responses are not subject to the same level of falsification across regime types.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4784. Introducing the Historical Varieties of Democracy Dataset: Political Institutions in the Long 19th Century

Author:: Carl Henrik Knutsen
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: The Historical Varieties of Democracy Dataset (Historical V-Dem) is a new dataset containing about 260 indicators, both factual and evaluative, describing various aspects of political regimes and state institutions. The dataset covers 91 polities globally – including most large, sovereign states, as well as some semi-sovereign entities and large colonies – from 1789 to 1920 for many cases. The majority of the indicators are also included in the Varieties of Democracy dataset, which covers the period from 1900 to the present – and together these two datasets cover the bulk of “modern history”. Historical V-Dem also includes several new indicators, covering features that are pertinent for 19thcentury polities. We describe the data, the process of coding, and the different strategies employed in Historical V-Dem to cope with issues of reliability and validity and ensure inter-temporal- and cross-country comparability. To illustrate the potential uses of the dataset we provide a descriptive account of patterns of democratization in the “long 19th century.” Finally, we perform an empirical investigation of how inter-state war relates to subsequent democratization.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4785. Reassessing the Democratic Peace: A Novel Test Based on the Varieties of Democracy Data

Author:: Håvard Hegre, Michael Bernhard, and Jan Teorell
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: The democratic peace is one of the most robust findings in international relations. Yet it suffers from two important limitations. First, even those who fully embrace the democratic peace have difficulty precisely identifying which facet of democracy drives the result. Second, the vast majority of studies have relied on a single measure of democracy – the Polity index. This paper reassesses interstate conflict on several new measures of democracy and their disaggregated components from the Varieties of Democracy project in a global sample of 173 countries from 1900–2010 (www.v-dem.net). We theorize three distinct mechanisms of constraint that may explain why some countries do not engage in military conflict with each other: formal vertical (e.g. elections), informal vertical (e.g. civil society activism), and horizontal accountability (e.g. interbranch constraint on the executive). We find that the formal vertical channels of accountability provided by elections are not as crucial as horizontal constraint and the informal vertical accountability provided by a strong civil society.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4786. On Revolutions

Author:: Armand M Leroi et al
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: Sometimes the normal course of events is disrupted by a particularly swift and profound change. Historians have often referred to such changes as "revolutions" and, though they have identied many of them, they have rarely supported their claims with statistical evidence. Here we present a method to identify revolutions based on a measure of the multivariate rate of change called Foote Novelty. We dene revolutions as those periods of time when the value of this measure, F, can, by a non-parametric test, be shown to be signicantly greater than the background rate. Our method also identies conservative periods when the rate of change is unusually low. Importantly, our method permits searching for revolutions over any time scale that the data permit. We apply it to several quantitative data sets that capture long-term political, social and cultural changes and, in some of them, identify revolutions, both well known and not. Our method is a general one that can be applied to any phenomenon captured by multivariate time series data of sufficient quality.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4787. The North American Arctic: Energizing Regional Collaboration and Governance

Author:: John Higginbotham and Jennifer Spence
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The opening of the Arctic Ocean and the forces of globalization it will unleash pose both pressing challenges and exciting opportunities for the largest and most autonomous of the Arctic regions, the North American Arctic (NAA) — Greenland, Nunavut, the Northwest Territories, Yukon and Alaska. However, a broad pan-Arctic cooperation is not always the best approach to address these issues; neither are international interests always well aligned with the priorities of Northerners.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: North America

4788. China should address downward pressure in 2018

Author:: Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: In 2017, the Chinese economy rebounded more significantly than expected. There is now general anticipation that growth in 2018 will fall slightly compared with that of 2017, but that it will remain stable at 6.5 percent or above. However, there are some factors that could lead to downward pressure on investment and consumption in 2018
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

4789. Trumps First Year at the Helm

Author:: Ville Sinkkonen and Mika Aaltola
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s first year as President has been marked by continuity in US security policy, a partial challenge to the global principles of free trade, and a sea change in commitments to the liberal international order. These reflect a view of the international system as a zero-sum competitive realm.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Political Theory, and Capitalism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4790. From Deng to Xi: Economic Reform, the Silk Road, and the Return of the Middle Kingdom

Author:: LSE Ideas
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This LSE IDEAS Special Report - with senior contributors from politics, journalism, and academia - looks at the internal causes and consequences of the return of the 'Middle Kingdom'. It explores the extent to which Deng's momentous economic reforms in 1978 have shaped modern China, what the country's expanded international role under Xi means, and who really makes Chinese foreign policy.
Topic:: International Affairs and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: China

4791. Toward data driven education systems

Author:: Samantha Custer, Elizabeth M King, Tamar Manuelyan Atinc, Lindsay Read, and Kabir Sethi
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Today, 650 million children around the globe are at risk of being left behind as they fail to learn basic skills. Inequitable access to education is part of the problem, but even when children are in school, they may not be learning. In Uganda, for instance, barely half of grade 6 children read at a grade 2 level (Uwezo, 2016). In India, just one in four children enrolled in grade 5 can read a simple sentence or complete simple division problems (ASER Centre, 2017).
Topic:: Education and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4792. Failure to define killer robots means failure to regulate them

Author:: Johannes Lang, Rens van Munster, and Robin May Schott
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Disagreements on how to define “autonomy” are stalling formal UN discussions on the compliance of autonomous weapons with international humanitarian law. A pragmatic approach that focuses on the weapon’s critical functions, such as target selection and firing, can help move discussions forward in the future.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4793. Building a WMD-Free zone on the two existing conventions

Author:: Jean Pascal Zanders
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: This Policy Forum issue analyses both progress made by and challenges facing the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC). It does so in order to explore under what conditions and to what extent these two conventions might help build a zone in the Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their delivery vehicles (DVs). Finally, the issue presents some options for the future and a major long-term initiative towards this ambitious goal.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4794. Constrained Potential: A Characterisation of Mexican Microenterprises

Author:: Ana Karen Negrete-García
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: This paper investigates the existence and nature of constraints prevailing among Mexican microenterprises. It provides inter‐temporal insights by relying on firm‐level data span‐ning from 1994 to 2012. A performance index is defined based on firm levels of capital stock and monthly profits, and is used to estimate the empirical probability of a business’s success. The predicted values are used to classify every microenterprise into one of three categories: upper, middle, or lower segment. Overall, the study provides evidence of con‐ strained productivity and capital misallocation. Specifically, middle‐segment firms exhibit entrepreneurial features and their average marginal returns are 15 percent. Because this segment faces mainly external constraints, cost‐effective interventions are plausible. Re‐garding the lower‐segment firms, it is estimated that their average monthly marginal re‐ turns are 30 per cent, compared to 1 per cent for the upper segment. It is also shown that, over time, the share that middle‐segment firms represent relative to all microenterprises increased from 16 to 22 percent. Lastly, the sources of variation in monthly profits among segments are explored using the Oaxaca‐Blinder decomposition method.
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Mexico

4795. Who Protects Whom? Politicians, Police and the Regulation of Drug Trafficking in Argentina

Author:: Hernan Flom
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: In many developing countries with weak formal institutions, sectors within the state protect organized criminal activities, allowing illicit markets to thrive. This article posits that how state actors regulate drug trafficking affects the levels of violence associated with such criminal activity. I argue that political competition influences coordination within the police and leads to different types of regulatory regimes. On the one hand, coordinated forces implement protection rackets that contain violence. On the other, uncoordinated police carry out particularistic negotiations with drug traffickers that exacerbate criminal violence. I illustrate this argument with a subnational comparison of two Argentine provinces, Buenos Aires and Santa Fe, during a period in which both witnessed a surge in drug trafficking but only one (Santa Fe) suffered a dramatic increase in criminal violence. These cases show how corrupt states can obtain relative order in highly fragmented drug markets, and how the police shape the evolution of drug dealing in metropolitan areas.
Topic:: Corruption and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:: Argentina

4796. The Role of Local Governance in Sustaining Peace

Author:: Alain Tschudin and Albert Trithart
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: While the importance of good governance to sustaining peace is widely recognized, the focus tends to be on national governance. This overlooks the crucial role of local governance actors, particularly when the central government is fragmented or lacks broad legitimacy. These actors include not only formal institutions like municipal governments but also a mix of other actors that could range from traditional chieftaincies to community-based organizations to religious institutions.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4797. Jewish-Arab Coexistence in Jerusalem and Local Elections

Author:: Nadav Shragai
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: A new survey, conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion among the Arabs of east Jerusalem, indicates an increasing desire among the city’s Arab population to participate in upcoming municipal elections.
Topic:: International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Israel

4798. Givat Hamatos: A Strategic Jerusalem Neighborhood

Author:: Nadav Shragai
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: A plan to build a Jewish residential neighborhood in Givat Hamatos (Airplane Hill) in southern Jerusalem was approved in 2014, but has been frozen for four years due to pressure from the U.S. and EU countries. The area is adjacent to a main traffic artery of west Jerusalem.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel

4799. Trump’s Speech Recognizing Jerusalem: What It Says and What It Doesn’t Say

Author:: Nadav Shragai
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: President Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital puts into deep-freeze plans for a division of the city.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Jerusalem

4800. Fresh thinking for old problems: comparing conflicts to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace

Author:: Dahlia Scheindlin
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Fresh thinking for old problems: comparing conflicts to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS