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4881. China’s Carbon Market: Accelerating a Green Economy in China and Reducing Global Emissions

Author:
Yifei Zhang, Jonathan Harris, and Jim Li
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
The National Carbon Emission Rights Trading Market (ETS) Construction Plan (Power Generation Industry) was released in Beijing on December 19 , 2017 by China’s government. As promised during COP23 held in Bonn, Germany in November 2017, this is a key step to fulfilling China’s commitment to the Paris Agreement. The performance of ETS pilot projects in seven provinces of China have been evaluated since October 2011. The supporting policies were also thoroughly analyzed at both local and central government levels. Analysis of the pilot projects shows that the national ETS just initiated in China will not only strengthen supply-side structural reform and carbon-saving patterns of economic growth, but it will also contribute to poverty alleviation by introducing ecosystem valuation into the market. This is a practical application of the “Two Mountain Theory” suggesting that the economic and ecological systems can work in harmony, as proposed by President Xi and emphasized in the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) on development, poverty alleviation and environmental protection in October 2017. Policy suggestions in terms of economic characteristics, industrial development and regional differences were developed to improve the effects of ETS in China. Taking advantage of differences in the costs of reducing emissions and expanding the size of the trading market are key to success.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Carbon Emissions, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4882. Financialization, Trade, and Investment Agreements: Through the Looking Glass or Through the Realities of Income Distribution and Government Policy?

Author:
Alex Izurieta, Pierre Kohler, and Juan Pizarro
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
This paper assesses the effects of trade and investment agreements on income distribution and government policy. The critical process underpinning these effects is the rise of ‘financialization’. Global patterns of greater financialization and of worsening functional income distribution as well as tighter fiscal stances are identified in the data. Tests are conducted by combining financial statistics with databases of bilateral investment agreements and free trade agreements, as well as data generated by the UN Global Policy Model that encompasses several fiscal policy instruments. The empirical validation of these relationships brings to the fore the policy-oriented debate about the purported benefits of modern-era ‘comprehensive’ trade and investment agreements such as TTIP, TTP and CETA. The authors corroborate the findings of their respective earlier studies of these agreements and reiterate their call for caution. To preserve policy space and to avert increases of inequality, policy-makers should resist pressures to get their economies locked in such agreements and should look instead for sustainable forms of international policy coordination.
Topic:
International Cooperation, United Nations, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4883. Do Trade and Investment (Agreements) Foster Development or Inequality?

Author:
Pierre Kohler and Francis Cripps
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
This paper proposes to revisit the debate on trade and investment agreements (TIAs), development and inequality, looking at the role of Global Value Chains (GVCs) and trans- national corporations (TNCs). It first presents stylized facts about trade and investment (agreements), declining global economic growth and rising inequality under the latest round of globalization. It then provides a long-run perspective on the mixed blessings of external opening, summarizing some key contributions of the mainstream literature, which are converging with long-standing research findings of more heterodox economists, and the eroding consensus today. Based on this stock-taking, it takes a fresh critical look at the TIAs-GVCs-TNCs nexus and their impact. Using data on value-added in trade and new firm-level data from the consolidated financial statements of the top 2000 TNCs going back to 1995, it examines whether the fragmentation of production along GVCs led to positive structural change or rather stimulated unsustainable trends in extractive and FIRE sectors. It then turns to the role of TNC-driven GVCs as a vehicle for economic concentration. Finally, it presents evidence linking TIAs and their correlates to rising inequality. Key findings include the fact that the ratio of top 2000 TNCs profits over revenues increased by 58 percent between 1995 and 2015. Moreover, the rise in top 2000 TNCs profits accounts for 69 percent of the 2.5 percentage points decline in the global labour income share between 1995 and 2015, with the correlation coefficient between annual changes in both variables as high as 0.82. The paper concludes by calling for a less ideological policy debate on TIAs, which acknowledges the mixed blessings of external financial and trade opening, especially their negative distributional impact and destabilizing macro-financial feedback effects, which both call for policy intervention. As an alternative to short-sighted protectionism, it further discusses possible options for anticipating undesirable effects arising from TIAs (e.g. rising carbon emissions, economic instability, inequality, etc.) and addressing those in TIAs themselves.
Topic:
Inequality, Investment, Trade, and transnationalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4884. Industrial Policy 4.0 Promoting Transformation in the Digital Economy

Author:
Padmashree Gehl Sampath
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
The rise of the fourth industrial revolution (IR) is deeply embedded in a wider context of privatization of knowledge, rising costs of innovation and uneven distribution of capacity between countries. But debates on a ‘balanced’ policy framework to tackle these issues have until now floundered to address some of the fundamental dilemmas of our times. Will the fourth IR render the manufacturing-led model of economic development a thing of the past? Are there new boundaries for innovation and industry in the fourth IR? What should policy do in such an uncertain technological era? This paper addresses these crucial questions and makes a case for comprehensive digital industrial policies that are differentiated and rooted in the broader reality of development and globalization in the fourth IR. The paper maps the new boundaries for innovation and industrialization, after which, it elaborates in detail the market and institution failures in the platform economy that arise from the highly complex nature of technological change and a lack of effective policy oversight. It offers evidence to the effect that although manufacturing as we knew it – with its effects on low and unskilled labour and employment creation - might not continue to exist, it will continue to thrive using high technology skills and R&D, within a new model of industrialization where the knowledge-component of all sectors – agriculture, manufacturing and services – will be on the rise. Countries therefore, need a more nuanced and differentiated industrial policy 4.0 framework that can: (a) sustain overall industrial performance, (b) in a way that helps close the gap to the frontier in a constantly evolving technological landscape, (c) while mitigating the adverse consequences for society, in terms of employment, privacy and latent social fabric. The paper proposes the components of such an industrial policy 4.0 in detail in its concluding section.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Employment, and Digital Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4885. Green growth and its global-local meanings – Insights from Morocco

Author:
Cengiz Günay, Sherin Gharib, and Christian Haddad
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Energy transition towards renewable energy sources (RES) has been a high priority for many industrial as well as developing countries. Besides its positive effects on the ambitions to mitigate climate change, energy transition has been also seen as a mean to increase energy independence and energy security. While some countries have been particularly successful in developing and deploying energy transition solutions (including technologies and governance models) others are at the beginnings. Particularly in developing countries there is growing interest in the transfer of RES solutions as they are often considered to be drivers for modernization and socio-economic development (Romer 1990; Gruber et al. 2017). The transfer of RES technologies, which includes not only turnkey power stations but also the transfer of the governance models, needed for successful implementation of technology in the hosting society and its long-term usage with as little impacts as possible on local communities and benefits for hosting countries at the same time, is considered a key in facilitating climate change mitigation efforts around the globe (Karakosta et al. 2010; Metz et al. 2000). In 2009, Morocco initiated an ambitious energy transition program. The goal is to cover 42 percent of its power generating capacity with RES by 2020 and to increase this to 52 percent by 2030 (RES Med). Moroc-co’s ambitious plans are often highlighted by various organizations in the international context as a model for deployment of RES in developing countries (Gruber et al. 2017). The country’s energy transition strategy mainly focuses on the construction of large and middle-size centralized solar energy plants. The largest project are the so called “Noor” (light) plants, a number of large and medium scale solar plants to be constructed across the country until 2020. The Noor plants are hoped to increase Morocco’s energy production, decrease the country’s dependence on fossil imports and even enable the export of energy to European and African neighbors. In turn, effects on electricity prices in Morocco are expected to remain low. Despite a clear preference for rather centralized energy solutions, mainly the result of state planning in the capital Rabat, the Moroccan state’s ambition of inducing “Green Growth” has also had effects on the regional, provincial and local levels. Many associations and initiatives defending, promoting and lobbying for climate change mitigation and renewable energy solutions have emerged at the local level. Green Growth and Morocco’s aims at de-centralizing the state’s administrative structure have opened new spaces for participation. Similar to Morocco, Austria has also developed ambitious plans for transition to climate friendly energy productions. The long-term vision is to reach 100 percent independence from fossil energy. In 2009, the so called Climate and Energy Model Regions (CEM) were established. The governance concept of Climate and Energy Model Regions (CEM) aims at promoting energy transition at the regional and local levels. Each CEM pursues the goal of becoming independent from fossil fuels by 2050 and thereby contributes to the overall national climate goals. The decentralization of climate goals, linking energy transition with regional development has reflected the country’s federal administrative and political structure. In that regard, this governance model represents a best practice for a decentralized policy approach to climate mitigation goals. As much as this often entails strong involvement and ownership on societal level, as much its success is dependent on a complex set of diverse political entrepreneurs on different political and administrative levels (national-federal-district and local). Most of the energy relevant issues are regulated by federal law, but the federal states are highly involved in the specification and implementation of these laws. The country’s energy strategy and measures for the reduction of emissions (including investments in renewables) are elaborated in collaboration between the federal government and the federal states. The measures taken are brought in line with the climate and energy package issued by the EU in 2008 which sets besides the promotion of renewables and the increase in energy efficiency the goal to reduce emissions until 2020 by 20 % (compared to 1990). This working paper builds on the insights gained from the LINKS project. LINKS (Linking climate change mitigation, energy security and regional development in climate and energy model regions in Austria) identified structural differences among the Austrian Climate Model Regions (urban, semi-urban and rural), human factors such as the willingness to use RES and to pay for them, as well as differing public acceptance and participatory governance measures. As a result, the two Austrian CEM regions of Güssing and Freistadt were determined as potential models to be transferred to Tata. These two CEMs illustrate the two opposite poles of different governance rationales. While the establishment of a CEM in Güssing was mainly initiated by the former mayor in a top-down process and enjoyed strong political support on the national and regional levels, Freistadt represents a bottom-up approach which has been located at the grassroots level and is informed by more participatory and flat governance structures. The overall objective of our work package was to assessing the transferability of these insights to different socio-political environments, such as Morocco’s Tata region. To do so, the working paper explores the visions and different notions of “green growth”. Moreover, it is concerned with the forms of participation of different stakeholders (including official authorities) in the making of renewable energy in a remote area of Morocco. Situated in the coun- try’s southeast, Tata has been designated as the location of one of the Noor solar plants. It analyzes the meanings produced in general discourses on energy policy in Tata and puts them into context with the political, territorial and economic orders that shape opportunity structures. Based on interviews, talks, a stakeholder forum and a focus group discussion, the paper identifies three threads of discourses and three perspectives on the Moroccan orders. This working paper was produced in the framework of LINKS Project, funded by the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economic Growth, Renewable Energy, and Transition
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

4886. When Civil Resistance Succeeds: Building Democracy After Popular Nonviolent Uprisings

Author:
Jonathan Pinckney
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (ICNC)
Abstract:
Why do some nonviolent revolutions lead to successful democratization while others fail to consolidate democratic change? And what can activists do to push toward a victory over dictatorship that results in long-term political freedom? Several studies show that nonviolent revolutions are generally a more positive force for democratization than violent revolutions and top-down political transitions. However, some nonviolent revolutions, such as the Arab Spring revolution in Egypt, do not seem to fi t this pattern. This study takes on this puzzle and reveals that the answer lies in large part in the actions of civil society prior to and during transition. Democracy is most likely when activists can keep their social bases mobilized for positive political change while directing that mobilization toward building new political institutions.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, Resistance, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4887. Comparative Political Economy and Varieties of Macroeconomics

Author:
Lucio Baccaro and Jonas Pontusson
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
This paper provides a historical overview of comparative political economy as an interdisci- plinary field of study anchored in political science and focused on advanced capitalist states. We argue that this field of inquiry has reached an impasse and that a more sustained engage- ment with macroeconomics provides a way forward. Against this backdrop, we review two distinct traditions of macroeconomics – New Keynesian and Post-Keynesian macroeco- nomics – and discuss their relative merits as vehicles for renewing the research agenda of comparative political economy.
Topic:
Capitalism, Macroeconomics, and Keynes
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4888. European Social Policy: Progressive Regression

Author:
Wolfgang Streeck
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
European social policy changed with the evolution of European and global capitalism, the scope and shape of European-level international institutions, the size and heterogeneity of “Europe” as a polity, and the politics of the European national welfare state. The paper outlines the long-term trajectory of European social policy, from the intended absorption of national welfare states into one united, federal welfare state to a selective updating of national social policies by European social policies; to multi-level coordination of national systems by special European institutions; to European soft law helping national “modern- ization” on the “Third Way”; to exposure of national systems to international economic competition as an incentive for “structural reform”; and to subordination of social policy, national and European, to the defense of a common hard currency through fiscal consoli- dation – from, in other words, federal social democracy to competitive “adjustment” of national social protection and social life to global markets.
Topic:
Reform, Capitalism, Political structure, Social Policy, Welfare, and Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

4889. Kroc Insight – Negotiating at the Invisible Peace Table: Inclusion of Women in Informal Peacebuilding Processes

Author:
Jennifer Bradshaw and Mariam Yazdani
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Joan B. Kroc Institute for Peace Justice, University of San Diego
Abstract:
In the second installment of the Kroc Insight series, Program Officer Jennifer Bradshaw and 2018 Woman PeaceMaker Fellow Mariam Yazdani explore how to build more effective and inclusive peace negotiations. What came out of these conversations was a need to share out an often under-documented space within peace negotiations, “the invisible peace negotiation table."
Topic:
Peacekeeping, Women, Feminism, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4890. Dilemmas and Experiences of International Support for Inclusive Peacebuilding

Author:
Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The issue of inclusive peacebuilding has moved up the international agenda in recent years. There is now unprecedented policy-level commitment among the international community to promote inclusion in conflict-affected contexts; growing evidence of the importance of inclusion for sustainable peace and development; emerging lessons on best approaches for promoting inclusion; and a recognition among international actors of the need to learn from past weaknesses in this area. This report examines the current policy context for providing international support to inclusive peacebuilding. It identifies how international actors can strengthen their efforts to promote inclusion by learning from previous experience and drawing on new knowledge and approaches. It goes on to look at how international actors have supported inclusion in three very different conflict-affected contexts, Afghanistan, Somalia and Nepal, and asks how international actors have engaged on issues of inclusion in these contexts, what factors shaped this engagement, and what the results have been.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, Middle East, Asia, Nepal, and Somalia

4891. Insight on Syria: The Unseen Challenges of Refugee Integration in Germany

Author:
Hanaa Masalmeh
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Weatherhead Center Undergraduate Research Fellow Hanaa Masalmeh spent a semester in Germany studying Syrian refugee integration. Her work focuses on the formal and informal structures of integration, especially on the role of women—both German and Syrian—in the integration process. This article, written by Masalmeh, is based on her research on volunteer groups in Bavaria, Germany. Names have been changed to afford privacy to the interviewees.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Displacement, and Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Germany, and Syria

4892. Striking a Balance: Straight Talk on the Global Economy

Author:
Michelle Nicholasen
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
or more than two decades, economist Dani Rodrik has warned about the dangers of what he has called “hyperglobalization.” He has long argued that national economies and domestic policies should have priority amidst a rising tide of unfettered globalization and open markets. Today we have some evidence that he was right. Our race toward “one world economy” has produced consequences in the form of global social inequality and populist or extremist political movements, for example. Rodrik envisions a way to keep bringing down trade barriers while maintaining the integrity of the nation-state. His latest book, Straight Talk on Trade, is a synthesis of his monthly columns for Project Syndicate, and functions as a roadmap of Rodrik’s prolific analyses. The Weatherhead Center spoke to him about his long view on world economies.
Topic:
Globalization, Science and Technology, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4893. When Should Children Be Allowed to Work?

Author:
Lorenza Belinda Fontana
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
When we think about child labor, what often comes to mind are images of dirty, poorly dressed children—digging in mountains of trash, carrying heavy loads of bricks or crops, or disappearing in dark mine tunnels. Yet working children are a heterogeneous group that also includes children helping out in domestic labor, family shops, or subsistence agriculture, and adolescents undertaking their first steps into the labor market. While child labor is generally perceived as bad for children and efforts toward its elimination are pursued by the international communities, in certain contexts—and particularly in countries of the Global South—this is a culturally accepted and sometimes prized practice, considered fundamental for basic household production. In certain countries, working children themselves have created unions and mobilized to ask for fairer labor conditions and greater protections rather than child labor elimination. These gaps between international and domestic views on child labor have made the task of regulating the issue under human rights law particularly challenging for international organizations. International human rights agreements have proliferated since the 1990s. They seek to encourage states to behave in ways that respect human rights and they play a major role in shaping ideas about how to conduct world politics. But despite their proliferation, we still have an incomplete understanding of how states respond to internationally agreed-upon charters of rights, why they respond the way they do, the circumstances under which rights treaties make a difference, and what that difference might be. Compliance tends to be understood in this debate in an either/or fashion: states either come into line with international human rights law or not. Legal anthropology and constructivist approaches to international relations sought to document the ‘translation’ or ‘socialization’ of human rights that shapes domestic compliance—by which they mean how international norms become attached to local issues that allow communities to ‘make sense’ of the norm—but they have not challenged the assumption that ‘compliance’ implies an alignment between domestic practices and international agreements.
Topic:
Human Rights, United Nations, Labor Issues, and Children
Political Geography:
Global South

4894. Global Oncology in Rwanda

Author:
Darja Djordjevic
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Last summer, two major pharmaceutical companies, Pfizer and Cipla, reached an agreement to sell sixteen standard chemotherapy drugs at very low cost (purportedly only slightly higher than the manufacturing cost) to six African countries: Rwanda, Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Nigeria.1 This negotiated deal also included a plan for top American oncologists to simplify cancer treatment protocols, which an IBM team would then make available through an online, open-access tool. This development signaled an important moment in the politics of global health, one of growing awareness and advocacy around cancer in Africa and the Global South. While this particular deal was a positive and overdue development in the battle long-fought by care providers across the world who look after poor people with cancer, we have to wonder for how long such a deal will last, alongside other pressing concerns. Further, how does this initiative fit into the broader political economy of a profit-driven pharmaceutical industry always in search of new markets, with Africa being a potentially massive one?
Topic:
Public Health, Pandemic, and Cancer
Political Geography:
Global South

4895. Insight on Syria: What Are Putin's Motives?

Author:
Rawi Abdelal and Alexandra Vacroux
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Russian President Vladimir Putin has confounded American policy makers with his agenda in the Middle East for at least the past decade. Russia’s stance has varied in its accord with Western policies, at times seeming to align—as in Libya and Yemen—and other times shirking, by showing indifference toward Iran’s nuclear program violations. Western diplomats have long puzzled over Putin’s real aims in the region and whether or not he could ever be a reliable ally. Russian airstrikes in Syria in 2015 marked a turning point in its foreign policy. Taking full advantage of the vacuum created by President Obama’s failure to intervene, Russia stepped in to lead, signaling Moscow’s new commitment to involvement in the region. Just two years prior, Putin had refused to export missiles systems to Syria, raising hopes in the West for a possible partnership that could help to stabilize the region. It was not to be. Russian officials fanned speculation and confusion about its actions in Syria. To the public, they skewed the purpose of intervention, first claiming to target Islamic State, then “terrorists” in general. In fact, Russian bombs fell on anti-Assad rebel groups, some of whom were armed and trained by US intelligence agencies. Thus began a protracted “proxy war” between the United States and Russia that continues today.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Syria, and North America

4896. When Life Is in Limbo, Education Can't Wait

Author:
Michelle Nicholasen
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Of the sixty-five million people currently displaced worldwide, about half of them are children. On average, a refugee may spend between ten to twenty-five years in exile. This means that for many children, their entire formal education will take place while awaiting a durable solution to their displacement. However, the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) estimates that only 50 percent of refugee children have access to primary education, and only 22 percent have access to secondary school. The critical task of educating refugee children has been the focus of scholarship for Weatherhead Center Faculty Associate Sarah Dryden-Peterson and her research team who are investigating processes of refugee education in Kenya, Lebanon, and Uganda, among others. Documenting the experiences of students, families, and teachers over time, the group has gained insight on education delivery, quality of instruction, and resource allocation. The struggle to meet the educational needs of refugee children, according to Dryden-Peterson, has called into question the very purpose of education and what kinds of futures it prepares young people for. The Weatherhead Center asked Dryden-Peterson and doctoral students Vidur Chopra and Elizabeth Adelman to describe some of the realities facing Syrian refugees, who rely on education as a critical pathway to establishing a secure life. What follows is an abridged version of that conversation.
Topic:
Education, United Nations, Refugees, and Displacement
Political Geography:
Global

4897. Cooperation in a Post-Western World: Challenges and future prospects

Author:
Michèle Roth and Cornelia Ulbert
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
The post-Cold War world has been characterised by global cooperation, largely driven by Western actors and based on the norms of Western liberalism. Today, global power shifts are accelerating. The Western liberal order finds itself in deep crisis. Its previous anchor, the United States (US), is no longer willing or able to run the system. Its most important former ally, the European Union (EU), is struggling with inte- gration fatigue. New nationalist movements in many Western countries are proliferating. In other parts of the world, too, people fear the impact of globalisa- tion and are seeking to regain national autonomy. What does this mean for the future of global cooper- ation? How can the wish for more national autonomy be reconciled with the need to cooperate in the face of unsustainable development, global inequality, conflict and gross violations of human rights? How do changing power constellations affect global cooper- ation? We suggest that new forms of governance will contribute to sustaining global cooperation. This paper uses the example of the Paris Agreement to illus- trate new forms of polycentric and multi-stakeholder transnational governance that are bottom-up rather than top-down. Moreover, constructive coalitions of the willing and more flexibility in global governance provisions might also be key for successful future cooperation.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Governance, European Union, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and North America

4898. The UN Security Council: From a 20th Century Relic to Effective Security Governance

Author:
Jakkie Cilliers
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
The United Nations Security Council lies at the heart of the global security architecture. It was established in 1945 to maintain international peace and security, but reform has been stuck for decades. Beyond a nuclear conflagration and the enduring challenge of interstate conflict, future global security challenges include the impact of climate change, the threat of pandemics, dirty bombs, nuclear terrorism and cybercrime. These risks are exacerbated by the rise of new nationalism in the West with countries such as the USA turning away from multilateralism, eschewing collaboration and accelerating change away from a global system hitherto dominated by the West. At a time of great power transitions, mul- tipolarity without sufficient multilateralism is a dan- gerous trend. Without comprehensive change that includes the end of permanent seats and the veto, the Council is fading into irrelevance. Such reform is possible, but requires a very different approach compared to efforts to find a compromise between different negotiating blocks in New York. Instead, detailed proposals should be agreed upon amongst like-minded states outside of the intergovernmental negotiating process and tabled in the General Assembly as a non-negotiable amendment to the Charter of the United Nations (UN). Even then only the threat from key countries to withdraw coopera- tion from the UN is likely to change things.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, United Nations, Multilateralism, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4899. The Global Refugee Crisis: Towards a Just Response

Author:
B.S. Chimni
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
More than two-thirds (68 %) of the 24 million refugees worldwide come from just five countries: Syria (6.3 mil- lion), Afghanistan (2.6 million), South Sudan (2.4 million), Myanmar (1.2 million) and Somalia (almost 1 million) (UNHCR 2018b, p. 3). At least in three of these, there has been overt Western intervention and in four cases there is a failed developmental state. In keeping out asylum seek- ers and refugees from their territories, Western nations also forget the migration of millions of people in the 19th century from Europe to the rest of the world. Furthermore, the limits of contemporary movement of forced migrants to the West cannot be discussed without talking about slave trade, the movement of indentured labour, and the occupation of territories declared terra nullius. Contem- porary economic and political policies of Western nations and the institutions they control also need to be factored in. These historical episodes lend perspective to current numbers with refugees constituting less than 0.3 % of the world’s population (Amnesty International 2016, p. 6). Moreover, according to United Nations High Commis- sioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 85 % of the world’s refu- gees under its mandate are hosted in the Global South (UNHCR 2018b, p. 2). Against this backdrop, the author seeks to contest the justifications offered by Western com- mentators for the non-entrée or restrictive asylum regime established in the Global North. Instead, he proposes a multipronged strategy consisting of short, medium, and long-term measures to address the global refugee crisis.
Topic:
United Nations, Refugee Crisis, Asylum, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4900. A Sense of Victory on Both Sides: A Recipe for Escalation in Gaza?

Author:
Amos Yadlin
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Following the "March of Return" events led by Hamas on two turbulent Fridays at the border fence between Israel and the Gaza Strip, both sides declared victory. And in the case of such a blatantly asymmetric conflict between parties with opposing aims, both sides can indeed claim victory, precisely because they are conducting parallel maneuvers. Israel operates largely on a physical dimension (protecting its sovereign territory), while Hamas works mainly on the cognitive-political level. In a world of images, intensive information campaigns, and mass media (including fake news), a sense of victory on both sides could intensify the hostilities on the Gaza border and perhaps even beyond in the coming weeks. Israel must stress that it is defending a recognized international border; clarify the legality and proportionality of its use of live fire; expand its visual documentation of the events; update Arab countries about the facts and balance the pro-Hamas messages delivered in the Arab media; and prepare for an escalation of the conflict. Finally, while focused on the immediate challenge of mass demonstrations on the Gaza border, Israel must continue to address the underlying issue: the growing distress in Gaza and the collapse of its infrastructures will make it hard for Israel to continue managing the situation with relatively low political, military, and financial costs. Mid-May will be followed by the month of Ramadan and another scorching summer. Temporary success in containing the new challenge posed by Hamas will not defuse the social-economic-military time bomb ticking in the Strip.
Topic:
Terrorism, Infrastructure, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza