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4781. What Makes Experts Reliable?

Author:
Kyle L Marquardt
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:
Many datasets use experts to code latent quantities of interest. However, scholars have not explored either the factors affecting expert reliability or the degree to which these factors influence estimates of latent concepts. Here we systematically analyze potential correlates of expert reliability using six randomly selected variables from a cross-national panel dataset, V-Dem v8. The V-Dem project includes a diverse group of over 3,000 experts and uses an IRT model to incorporate variation in both expert reliability and scale perception into its data aggregation process. In the process, the IRT model produces an estimate of expert reliability, which affects the relative contribution of an expert to the model. We examine a variety of factors that could correlate with reliability, and find little evidence of theoretically-untenable bias due to expert characteristics. On the other hand, there is evidence that attentive and condent experts who have a basic contextual knowledge of the concept of democracy are more reliable.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4782. How to Make Causal Inferences with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data under Selection on Observables

Author:
Matthew Blackwell and Adam Glynn
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:
Repeated measurements of the same countries, people, or groups over time are vital to many fields of political science. These measurements, sometimes called time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) data, allow researchers to estimate a broad set of causal quantities, including contemporaneous and lagged treatment effects. Unfortunately, popular methods for TSCS data can only produce valid inferences for lagged effects under very strong assumptions. In this paper, we use potential outcomes to define causal quantities of interest in this settings and clarify how standard models like the autoregressive distributed lag model can produce biased estimates of these quantities due to post-treatment conditioning. We then describe two estimation strategies that avoid these post-treatment biases—inverse probability weighting and structural nested mean models—and show via simulations that they can outperform standard approaches in small sample settings. We illustrate these methods in a study of how welfare spending affects terrorism.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4783. Self-Censorship in Authoritarian States: Response bias in measures of popular support in China

Author:
Daniel Robinson and Marcus Tannenberg
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:
The study of popular support for authoritarian regimes, and the comparative study of political attitudes, has long relied on the assumption that survey respondents provide truthful answers on surveys. However, when measuring regime support in closed political systems there is a distinct risk that individuals are less than forthright due to fear that their opinions may be made known to the public or the authorities. In order to test this assumption, we conducted a novel web-based survey in China in which we included four list experiments of commonly used items in the comparative literature on regime support. We find systematic bias for all four measures as a result of selfcensorship; substantially more individuals state that they support the regime with direct questioning than do when presented with our anonymous, indirect list experiments. The level of self-censorship, which ranges from 16 to 22 percentage points, is considerably higher than previously thought. Selfcensorship is further most prevalent among the wealthy, urban, female and younger respondents. These findings indicate that prior studies that have found high levels of support for the Chinese regime using these particular measures likely overestimate the true level of support. Further, crossnational studies which compare popular support across regime type may be systematically biased if responses are not subject to the same level of falsification across regime types.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4784. Introducing the Historical Varieties of Democracy Dataset: Political Institutions in the Long 19th Century

Author:
Carl Henrik Knutsen
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:
The Historical Varieties of Democracy Dataset (Historical V-Dem) is a new dataset containing about 260 indicators, both factual and evaluative, describing various aspects of political regimes and state institutions. The dataset covers 91 polities globally – including most large, sovereign states, as well as some semi-sovereign entities and large colonies – from 1789 to 1920 for many cases. The majority of the indicators are also included in the Varieties of Democracy dataset, which covers the period from 1900 to the present – and together these two datasets cover the bulk of “modern history”. Historical V-Dem also includes several new indicators, covering features that are pertinent for 19thcentury polities. We describe the data, the process of coding, and the different strategies employed in Historical V-Dem to cope with issues of reliability and validity and ensure inter-temporal- and cross-country comparability. To illustrate the potential uses of the dataset we provide a descriptive account of patterns of democratization in the “long 19th century.” Finally, we perform an empirical investigation of how inter-state war relates to subsequent democratization.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4785. Reassessing the Democratic Peace: A Novel Test Based on the Varieties of Democracy Data

Author:
Håvard Hegre, Michael Bernhard, and Jan Teorell
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:
The democratic peace is one of the most robust findings in international relations. Yet it suffers from two important limitations. First, even those who fully embrace the democratic peace have difficulty precisely identifying which facet of democracy drives the result. Second, the vast majority of studies have relied on a single measure of democracy – the Polity index. This paper reassesses interstate conflict on several new measures of democracy and their disaggregated components from the Varieties of Democracy project in a global sample of 173 countries from 1900–2010 (www.v-dem.net). We theorize three distinct mechanisms of constraint that may explain why some countries do not engage in military conflict with each other: formal vertical (e.g. elections), informal vertical (e.g. civil society activism), and horizontal accountability (e.g. interbranch constraint on the executive). We find that the formal vertical channels of accountability provided by elections are not as crucial as horizontal constraint and the informal vertical accountability provided by a strong civil society.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4786. On Revolutions

Author:
Armand M Leroi et al
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:
Sometimes the normal course of events is disrupted by a particularly swift and profound change. Historians have often referred to such changes as "revolutions" and, though they have identied many of them, they have rarely supported their claims with statistical evidence. Here we present a method to identify revolutions based on a measure of the multivariate rate of change called Foote Novelty. We dene revolutions as those periods of time when the value of this measure, F, can, by a non-parametric test, be shown to be signicantly greater than the background rate. Our method also identies conservative periods when the rate of change is unusually low. Importantly, our method permits searching for revolutions over any time scale that the data permit. We apply it to several quantitative data sets that capture long-term political, social and cultural changes and, in some of them, identify revolutions, both well known and not. Our method is a general one that can be applied to any phenomenon captured by multivariate time series data of sufficient quality.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4787. The North American Arctic: Energizing Regional Collaboration and Governance

Author:
John Higginbotham and Jennifer Spence
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The opening of the Arctic Ocean and the forces of globalization it will unleash pose both pressing challenges and exciting opportunities for the largest and most autonomous of the Arctic regions, the North American Arctic (NAA) — Greenland, Nunavut, the Northwest Territories, Yukon and Alaska. However, a broad pan-Arctic cooperation is not always the best approach to address these issues; neither are international interests always well aligned with the priorities of Northerners.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
North America

4788. China should address downward pressure in 2018

Author:
Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In 2017, the Chinese economy rebounded more significantly than expected. There is now general anticipation that growth in 2018 will fall slightly compared with that of 2017, but that it will remain stable at 6.5 percent or above. However, there are some factors that could lead to downward pressure on investment and consumption in 2018
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
China

4789. Trumps First Year at the Helm

Author:
Ville Sinkkonen and Mika Aaltola
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Donald Trump’s first year as President has been marked by continuity in US security policy, a partial challenge to the global principles of free trade, and a sea change in commitments to the liberal international order. These reflect a view of the international system as a zero-sum competitive realm.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Political Theory, and Capitalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4790. From Deng to Xi: Economic Reform, the Silk Road, and the Return of the Middle Kingdom

Author:
LSE Ideas
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This LSE IDEAS Special Report - with senior contributors from politics, journalism, and academia - looks at the internal causes and consequences of the return of the 'Middle Kingdom'. It explores the extent to which Deng's momentous economic reforms in 1978 have shaped modern China, what the country's expanded international role under Xi means, and who really makes Chinese foreign policy.
Topic:
International Affairs and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
China

4791. Toward data driven education systems

Author:
Samantha Custer, Elizabeth M King, Tamar Manuelyan Atinc, Lindsay Read, and Kabir Sethi
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Today, 650 million children around the globe are at risk of being left behind as they fail to learn basic skills. Inequitable access to education is part of the problem, but even when children are in school, they may not be learning. In Uganda, for instance, barely half of grade 6 children read at a grade 2 level (Uwezo, 2016). In India, just one in four children enrolled in grade 5 can read a simple sentence or complete simple division problems (ASER Centre, 2017).
Topic:
Education and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4792. Failure to define killer robots means failure to regulate them

Author:
Johannes Lang, Rens van Munster, and Robin May Schott
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Disagreements on how to define “autonomy” are stalling formal UN discussions on the compliance of autonomous weapons with international humanitarian law. A pragmatic approach that focuses on the weapon’s critical functions, such as target selection and firing, can help move discussions forward in the future.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4793. Building a WMD-Free zone on the two existing conventions

Author:
Jean Pascal Zanders
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
This Policy Forum issue analyses both progress made by and challenges facing the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC). It does so in order to explore under what conditions and to what extent these two conventions might help build a zone in the Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their delivery vehicles (DVs). Finally, the issue presents some options for the future and a major long-term initiative towards this ambitious goal.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4794. Constrained Potential: A Characterisation of Mexican Microenterprises

Author:
Ana Karen Negrete-García
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper investigates the existence and nature of constraints prevailing among Mexican microenterprises. It provides inter‐temporal insights by relying on firm‐level data span‐ning from 1994 to 2012. A performance index is defined based on firm levels of capital stock and monthly profits, and is used to estimate the empirical probability of a business’s success. The predicted values are used to classify every microenterprise into one of three categories: upper, middle, or lower segment. Overall, the study provides evidence of con‐ strained productivity and capital misallocation. Specifically, middle‐segment firms exhibit entrepreneurial features and their average marginal returns are 15 percent. Because this segment faces mainly external constraints, cost‐effective interventions are plausible. Re‐garding the lower‐segment firms, it is estimated that their average monthly marginal re‐ turns are 30 per cent, compared to 1 per cent for the upper segment. It is also shown that, over time, the share that middle‐segment firms represent relative to all microenterprises increased from 16 to 22 percent. Lastly, the sources of variation in monthly profits among segments are explored using the Oaxaca‐Blinder decomposition method.
Topic:
International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Mexico

4795. Who Protects Whom? Politicians, Police and the Regulation of Drug Trafficking in Argentina

Author:
Hernan Flom
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
In many developing countries with weak formal institutions, sectors within the state protect organized criminal activities, allowing illicit markets to thrive. This article posits that how state actors regulate drug trafficking affects the levels of violence associated with such criminal activity. I argue that political competition influences coordination within the police and leads to different types of regulatory regimes. On the one hand, coordinated forces implement protection rackets that contain violence. On the other, uncoordinated police carry out particularistic negotiations with drug traffickers that exacerbate criminal violence. I illustrate this argument with a subnational comparison of two Argentine provinces, Buenos Aires and Santa Fe, during a period in which both witnessed a surge in drug trafficking but only one (Santa Fe) suffered a dramatic increase in criminal violence. These cases show how corrupt states can obtain relative order in highly fragmented drug markets, and how the police shape the evolution of drug dealing in metropolitan areas.
Topic:
Corruption and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Argentina

4796. The Role of Local Governance in Sustaining Peace

Author:
Alain Tschudin and Albert Trithart
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
While the importance of good governance to sustaining peace is widely recognized, the focus tends to be on national governance. This overlooks the crucial role of local governance actors, particularly when the central government is fragmented or lacks broad legitimacy. These actors include not only formal institutions like municipal governments but also a mix of other actors that could range from traditional chieftaincies to community-based organizations to religious institutions.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4797. Jewish-Arab Coexistence in Jerusalem and Local Elections

Author:
Nadav Shragai
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
A new survey, conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion among the Arabs of east Jerusalem, indicates an increasing desire among the city’s Arab population to participate in upcoming municipal elections.
Topic:
International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Israel

4798. Givat Hamatos: A Strategic Jerusalem Neighborhood

Author:
Nadav Shragai
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
A plan to build a Jewish residential neighborhood in Givat Hamatos (Airplane Hill) in southern Jerusalem was approved in 2014, but has been frozen for four years due to pressure from the U.S. and EU countries. The area is adjacent to a main traffic artery of west Jerusalem.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Israel

4799. Trump’s Speech Recognizing Jerusalem: What It Says and What It Doesn’t Say

Author:
Nadav Shragai
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
President Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital puts into deep-freeze plans for a division of the city.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Jerusalem