Content Type: Working Paper / Publication Year: within 10 Years / Topic: International Security

1. Northeast Asia Defense Transparency Index 2021–22

Author:: Chi Fang and Jade Reidy
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: Military tensions are on the rise in Northeast Asia as the likes of China, North Korea, and the United States flex their combat capabilities—but this does not mean that war is imminent. This is an important insight from the latest Northeast Asia Defense Transparency Index (DTI) for the period spanning 2021 to 2022. Carried out every two years by the University of California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, the DTI offers a detailed examination of how open or closed major regional states are in disclosing information on their defense postures, including defense budgets, publication of official annual defense reports, legislative oversight, and the nature of external military activities. The 2021–22 DTI found that there was only a marginal decline in the overall defense transparency level for Northeast Asia, with Japan showing a noteworthy improvement in its transparency performance. The concealment of defense activities is often an indicator that countries are quietly making preparations for military conflict and contributes to declining trust and confidence. The evidence from this DTI that defense transparency is relatively stable in Northeast Asia is cause for cautious optimism that the long peace that the region has enjoyed remains intact for now. Transparency though is just one indicator of the overall state of defense affairs, and the powerful underlying currents that are the main determinants of war and peace, such as threat perceptions and arms dynamics, all appear to be trending negatively.
Topic:: Defense Policy, International Security, and Transparency
Political Geography:: China, North Korea, Northeast Asia, and United States of America

2. Inside China’s Techno-Security State

Author:: Tai Ming Cheung
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: Since coming to power, Xi Jinping has significantly elevated the importance of national security and technological innovation in the country’s overall priorities. He has invested considerable time, effort, and political capital to establish an expansive techno-security state based upon his strategic and ideological vision. This brief examines the five major methods Xi’s administration has undertaken to develop its techno-security state: developing a national security state, innovation-driven development, military strengthening, military-civilian fusion, and economic securitization.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Industrial Policy, International Security, Innovation, Strategic Competition, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

3. Rising from the Ashes: The Future of Arms Control

Author:: Victor Mizin and Yue Yuan
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: This paper employs a comparative approach to provide an initial comprehensive analysis of the political interactions, contemporary nuclear policies, and military strategies and capabilities of China, Russia, and the United States in the context of the unstable international security landscape. At a time when the global arms control regime is teetering on the brink of disintegration, the authors aim to offer practical and feasible policy recommendations for remodeling the arms control regime from the Chinese and Russian perspectives. The authors stress the need to revive “traditional” arms control and advocate the search for ways to control emerging military technologies. This paper endeavors to present a two-pronged vision proposed by representatives of two major global players.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and United States of America

4. Playing Politics: International Security Sector Assistance and the Lebanese Military’s Changing Role

Author:: Hijab Shah and Melissa Dalton
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Following the August Beirut port explosion, the Lebanese Armed Forces must rebuild trust with the civilian population. The LAF can serve as a critical pillar in Lebanese government efforts to strengthen national security and identity in the midst of the crisis, in light of security sector assistance from the United States and other Western partners. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and Lebanon more broadly, is one of the largest recipients of foreign assistance in the Middle East. The United States and allied governments have sought to build the capabilities and professionalism of the LAF since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, focusing primarily on counterterrorism and border security. The LAF stood in stark contrast to other Lebanese security services in their restraint vis-à-vis the civilian population during the 2019 protests. However, recent reported violent incidents against civilians, ambiguity of the role of police forces, and concerns about both recovery efforts following the August 2020 port explosion in Beirut and extended powers under the state of emergency established by the Lebanese parliament have raised international concerns about the role of Lebanon’s security services, including the LAF. The LAF has a critical role to play in stabilizing Lebanon through a multi-faceted crisis, but will need to take concrete steps to bolster its professionalism. Lebanon’s modern politics have long been defined by confessionalism, a reality that persists even as the country is engulfed in crisis. International assistance to the LAF over the last fourteen years had intended to support the LAF as a legitimate national institution transcending confessions and supporting a broader sense of Lebanese security and identity. In the midst of the ongoing crisis in Lebanon, political turmoil at the helm of the country, and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, there is an important opportunity for the international community to support a new path for governance in the country—as shaped and envisioned by its populace. This opportunity hinges upon leveraging existing channels of support to the LAF and building in conditionality mechanisms that hold the LAF accountable for its actions, while continuing to promote a clear articulation of priorities for the LAF and a plan to improve military effectiveness through policy and doctrine; training and equipment, education, and exercises; operations; and institutional capacity building.
Topic:: Security, Government, Politics, International Security, Military Affairs, and Identity
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

5. Technology and the Future of Work

Author:: Ian Goldin
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: Recent decades have seen rapid increases in the use of robots and rapid advances in artificial intelligence, driven particularly by improvements in machine learning. From games like chess and Go to speech recognition and image recognition, machines have come to outperform humans in an expanding range of activities. This development has motivated many attempts to gauge the impact on the future of work for humans. Frey and Osborne estimate that 47% of total US employment is in jobs at high risk of automation within the next decade or two. Arntz, Gregory, and Zierahn in turn estimate the figure is 9% in the USA and 10% in UK, while PwC estimate 38% in the USA, 35% in Germany, 30% in the UK, and 21% in Japan are at risk. This policy paper reviews the relationships between automation, artifical intelligence, and jobs, a retrospective look at technological upheavel throughout history, and what the future of work looks like by country and sector. Additionally, the paper considers the transformation, redistribution, and recognition of what work looks like globally as a byproduct of new technologies, as well as the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on the future of work. Case studies from India and the Philippines provides prominent success stories of developing countries creating tradeable services industries, while two examples from Nordic countries and Estonia highlight novel policies in developed countries to ensure the benefits of new technologies are widely shared. Finally, Goldin provides recommendations for governments, international agencies, and other partners to to support employment and inclusive growth in the face of technological change.
Topic:: Science and Technology, International Security, Transnational Actors, Artificial Intelligence, and Workforce
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, India, East Asia, and United States of America

6. The Just Transition in Energy

Author:: Ian Goldin
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: With each new year of data, and each new intergovernmental report, it becomes harder to deny the scale and urgency of the energy transition required to prevent catastrophic anthropogenic climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change urges countries to take action to prevent a rise in temperature by more than 1.5°C, and warns of catastrophic consequences of a rise above 2°C. Yet current policies and pledges fall far short of hitting these targets. Worse, since harmful climate change is caused by the stock of carbon in the atmosphere, the longer we delay measures to limit the flow of new carbon into the atmosphere, the more drastic those measures will have to be. This uneven distribution of threat and responsibility raises difficult questions. Developed countries are generally more advanced in their transition to renewables, which means that some of the cheapest opportunities to reduce emissions are in developing countries. Yet the fact remains that developed countries are responsible for a larger share of historic emissions—and developing countries may have a right to pursue development unhindered, as developed countries did in earlier decades. There are therefore several elements of the “just transition” in energy. The world needs to transition to cleaner energy, and the developing world needs to keep developing, all while supporting the countries and communities that bear the highest costs of mitigation measures—and supporting those areas already beginning to feel the negative effects of climate change. This report will outline the key challenges and opportunities and conclude with a series of practical steps available to policymakers.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Security, Crisis Management, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: China, Europe, South Asia, Middle East, India, East Asia, South Africa, Latin America, West Africa, United States of America, and Sub-Saharan Africa

7. Bargaining and War: On the Communication Equilibrium in Conflict Games

Author:: Youngseok Park and Colin Campbell
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: We present a version of Baliga and Sjostrom’s (2012a) conflict games with two asymmetric players. The players contemplate whether to take an active engagement action to compel the leader of a neighboring state (an extremist) to give up his risky weapons. We show that a player with greater damage from the extremist is more likely to choose an active engagement action than a player with lesser damage. Furthermore, we examine cheap-talk communication equilibria with the extremist. The likelihood of both players choosing the active engagement action decreases by a hawkish extremist who can send a provocative message, if both players are coordination types. If both players are opportunistic types, a dovish extremist can send an appeasement message that causes one player to be more active while another to be more inactive. Lastly, we show that there does not exist any other communication equilibrium for either kind of extremist, for any other combination of player types.
Topic:: Political Economy, International Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Asia, Korea, and Global Focus

8. Insecurity, Forced Migration, And Internally Displaced Persons along the Cameroon-Nigeria Border

Author:: Primus Fonkeng
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:: The Cameroon-Nigeria border is plagued with insecurity challenges and serious threats to the border communities. Following the Boko Haram attacks, the counter-offensive by the Cameroonian and Nigerian armed forces, and the attacks between the Southern Cameroons separatists and the Cameroonian forces as a result of the Anglophone Crisis, the population along the Cameroon-Nigeria border were forced to abandon their towns and villages into neighboring communities. This forcedmigration has orchestrated the influx of refugees into both Cameroon and Nigeria, and internal displacement of many people. This article traces the complex insecurity situation that prompted forced migration and massive internal displacement of populations which paralyzed border activities. The study adopts the qualitative method and the descriptive and analytical approaches to assess the complex insecurity situations that resulted from the activities of the Boko Haram Terrorist Group and the Anglophone Crisis. The study recommends that, any peace process that ignores the needs and roles of the border communities is unnatural, and therefore inherently unstable. The contention here is that Cameroon and Nigeria need to cooperate for effectiveness in border policy with greater attention to the endeavors of border communities.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Migration, Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, International Security, Borders, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Nigeria and Cameroon

9. Israel’s Information Campaigns: An Alternative to Kinetic Strikes

Author:: Yaakov Lappin
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In recent months, the Israeli defense establishment has made increasing use of “information campaigns,” or exposure through the media of enemy activity that has been detected by Israeli intelligence. This modus operandi has developed into an alternative to kinetic strikes
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Israel

10. Fracturing Communities :Aid Distribution in a Palestinian Camp

Author:: Perla Issa
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:: This article examines the practices of humanitarian aid distribution from the perspective of aid recipients rather than providers through an immersion in the daily home life of Palestinian residents of Nahr al-Barid refugee camp (north Lebanon) in 2011. It argues that in the name of distributing aid fairly, humanitarian aid providers put in place a pervasive system of surveillance to monitor, evaluate, and compare residents’ misery levels by relying on locally recruited aid workers. This regime of visibility was designed to be one directional; NGOs never disclosed how much aid they had available, nor when or how it would be distributed. The inclusion of local aid workers in this opaque framework turned a process that relied on community and neighborhood ties into an impersonal machine that fostered doubt and suspicion and ultimately hindered the community’s ability to engage in collective political action.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, International Security, International Affairs, and Occupation
Political Geography:: Palestine

11. New Armies for a New Era Decrypting post-2011 Arab Military Reform Trends

Author:: Eleanore Ardemagni and Umberto Profazio
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Th e reaction of the Arab armies to the 2011 uprisings is a subject that has been frequently examined, but the evolution and reform of Arab armies is a neglected topic.2 In times of global interdependence, the Atlantic Alliance must be ready to understand and interact with a changing Middle East, since NATO Arab partners’ security is more and more NATO’s security, in terms of shared objectives, common threats and cooperative security. Arab armies have entered a new era: traditional obstacles to military reform, mostly due to their politicization, persist; other variables emerge from the interaction of domestic, foreign and transnational threats.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12. Failure to define killer robots means failure to regulate them

Author:: Johannes Lang, Rens van Munster, and Robin May Schott
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Disagreements on how to define “autonomy” are stalling formal UN discussions on the compliance of autonomous weapons with international humanitarian law. A pragmatic approach that focuses on the weapon’s critical functions, such as target selection and firing, can help move discussions forward in the future.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13. Missing Figures: The Cybersecurity Gender Gap

Author:: Spencer Beall
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Women In International Security (WIIS)
Abstract:: While the cybersecurity industry will require approximately six million workers to meet its projected job demand by 2019, many positions will remain unfilled without more female cybersecurity professionals. Currently, women comprise only 11 percent of global cybersecurity professionals. Women’s underrepresentation in cybersecurity is not just an economic workplace issue, but also has a profound impact on the type of technologies being developed and hence impacts everyone in the digital age. The report will explore some of the main barriers that impede women’s entry, professional advancement, and retention in cybersecurity, including the pervasive gender discrimination in technology professions. Next, I will examine three core reasons why it is essential to get more women in cybersecurity, namely (1) to maximize innovation potential; (2)to expand usability of digital products to meet the needs of all consumers; and (3) to strengthen the global economy by fulfilling the cybersecurity industry’s rapidly growing job demand. Recommendations on how to dismantle the gender gap in cybersecurity and how to create in the digital age a global workforce that is safer, more efficient, and more prosperous are presented.
Topic:: Gender Issues, International Security, Women, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14. North Korea and the Middle East

Author:: Alon Levkowitz
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: Kim Jung-un’s new year declaration that North Korea will test its new ICBM this year (2017) poses a further challenge to the incoming Trump administration. It is truly a “rogue state” – a country that conducts nuclear tests in defiance of the UN Security Council, and that is willing to sell conventional and non-conventional weapons to other rogue regimes, including Israel’s enemies. The nuclear cooperation between North Korea, Syria and Iran forces Israel into new alliances to counter this threat.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: North Korea and Global Focus

15. Khan Sheikhoun, Shayrat Air Base, and What Next?

Author:: Adam Garfinkle
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: By now the world knows that U.S. military forces for the first time since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011 have attacked regime targets. Plenty of the basic facts are known about what transpired about 18 hours ago, but a few important ones are not—at least not in the public domain. For example, we have only a very general Bomb Damage Assessment (BDA) report. This matters because Tomahawk cruise missiles are very accurate if “lite” weapons. Knowing what the four dozen or so missiles hit and missed, deliberately and otherwise, could tell us a lot about why the President, presumably with Secretary of Defense James Mattis’ guidance and concurrence, chose the lesser of three options presented at what has been described as a meeting of considerable length. That, in turn, could tell us if the intention ultimately is to coerce the Russians into coercing the Syrians to stop doing monstrous things to their own people, and possibly coercing them to support a compromise political settlement to the war; or if it’s just an Eff-You gesture designed only to relieve the sudden pressure of moral unction that unexpectedly came upon our new Commander-in Chief—who seemed to lurch from coldblooded Randian to “Godtalk” invoker of the American Civil Religion in the wink of an eye. In other words, knowing more about the target set would tell us whether there is any political strategy attached to the use of force, or not. Probably not.
Topic:: International Security and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: America, Middle East, and Syria

16. Fighting Corruption: A Manifesto for a more secure,prosperous and resilient UK.

Author:: Transparency International
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Transparency International
Abstract:: This manifesto contains 39 recommendations to address corruption in our country and the UK’s role in facilitating corruption globally. These five priority actions, building on past government announcements, deserve cross-party support, and could be introduced swiftly.
Topic:: Corruption and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

17. How the United States Should Help Protect Jordan from the Chaos Next Door

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Middle at ha een engulfed in chao. Longtanding authoritarian regime have een toppled; till other dictator have killed hundred of thouand and diplaced million in an effort to retain power. Iran’ hiite prox militia have pread throughout the region, fueling ectarianim and roadening the appeal of nihilitic unni Ilamit jihadit group. Meanwhile, audi Araia and gpt—two longtanding pillar of Wahington’ trategic architecture in the Middle at—have een haken  economic troule.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Jordan

18. Public Opinion on the Security of Serbia and Dialogue with Pristina

Author:: Milos Popovic and Sonja Stojanovic Gajic
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The latest BCSP working study summarizes the key findings of a survey on national security and responses to security threats. The research was conducted from 26 December 2016 until 14 January 2017 on reprezentative sample of 1,403 adult citizens of Serbia (excluding Kosovo).
Topic:: International Security and Public Opinion
Political Geography:: Serbia

19. Identification as a National Priority: The Unique Case of Peru

Author:: William Reuben and Flávia Carbonari
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Peru is a remarkable example of a country that established civil identification as a national priority in response to the need to re-integrate the state after a serious insurgency. It has built one of the strongest and most inclusive national ID programs in the world, including for children. The approach has combined the creation of an autonomous civil registration and identification agency and the use of performance-based financing to expand coverage to poor, remote, communities and to help integrate civil registration with the national ID. It offers lessons for many countries struggling to achieve SDG 16.9, to provide legal identity to all by 2030, including birth registration.
Topic:: Science and Technology, International Security, and Information Age
Political Geography:: Peru

20. Women and Peace Operations: The Achievement of the Italian Mission in Herat

Author:: Paola Sartori and Alessandra Scalia
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The research that forms the basis of this study aims to address women’s roles within peace operations, as well as their contribution to security and peace-building. Based on Italy’s contribution to the NATO-led missions – the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and, currently, Resolute Support (RS) – the subject of the analysis is Afghanistan, and particularly Herat Province. The research e ort is speci cally aimed at assessing the impact of the civil–military cooperation (CIMIC) initiatives implemented by Italian troops in Herat, with a speci c focus on gender and Afghan women. The rst part of this paper addresses the theoretical framework on women’s participation in stabilization and reconstruction e orts. It introduces concepts such as gender analysis and gender mainstreaming, and, consequently, the bene ts of focusing on gender when carrying out CIMIC initiatives within peace operations. The second part focuses on the CIMIC activities implemented by the Italian contingent in Herat Province. The concluding section of the paper provides some “food for thought”, aimed at contributing to further enhancing the e ectiveness of the CIMIC projects carried out by the Italian military and their related e ects.
Topic:: Gender Issues and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

21. Co-ordination in Tense Times: Issues for the G7

Author:: Anne-Laure Delatte and Sebastien Jean
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: This paper discusses what useful form international economic co-ordination might take, notwithstanding the tense climate witnessed in recent months. On international trade, we argue that aiming at wide-ranging negotiations or more-of-the-same trade liberalizations would be pointless under present circumstances. Priority should instead be given to preventing the doom loop of protectionism and retaliation, and to addressing the political concerns about globalization. On fiscal competition, we point to the risk of a potential race to the bottom despite the progress achieved thanks to the OECD BEPS initiative. We finally emphasize the need for coordinated policies on the demand side. Paper presented at the international conference on “Major Challenges for Global Macroeconomic Stability. The Role of the G7”, organized in Rome on 27-28 March 2017 by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) with the support of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and the Bank of Italy.
Topic:: International Cooperation and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

22. G7 Economic Cooperation in the Trump Era

Author:: C. Fred Bergsten, Edwin M. Truman, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: This paper examines how G7 cooperation can be maintained in the Trump era. Its working assumption is that the US administration will remain open to international cooperation in principle and yet be constrained by Trump’s economic nationalism and specific campaign promises, such as reducing trade imbalances. The main finding is that useful areas for G7 macroeconomic, trade and financial cooperation continue to exist even after taking US constraints into account. At the same time, other G7 leaders need to be prepared to proceed on their own if attempts to convince the US administration that G7 economic cooperation is in the interests of all members fail. Paper presented at the international conference on “Major Challenges for Global Macroeconomic Stability. The Role of the G7”, organized in Rome on 27-28 March 2017 by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) with the support of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and the Bank of Italy.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

23. The G7’s Task for Restoring Growth and Stability

Author:: Stephen Pickford and Paola Subacchi
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Most G7 countries are facing political and economic uncertainties, and long-standing structural problems.The short-term outlook is reasonably positive, but longer term prospects are more challenging. These challenges have underlying economic causes stretching back many years, fostered by low productivity growth, stagnating real incomes and living standards, rising inequality and technological change. G7 countries should address short-term weaknesses, reduce political and policy uncertainties, and tackle these longer-term problems as well. Acting together to address these challenges will be more effective: (1) short-term and medium-term measures to boost growth should focus on fiscal actions (including infrastructure spending), normalizing monetary policy, completing financial regulatory reforms, and structural policies; (2) tackling policy uncertainties requires international consensus on consistent policies, starting with greater certainty over the direction of trade policy and over the Brexit negotiations. Sending positive signals on trade cooperation will be difficult, but the G7 could make progress on some specific issues such as a code of practice against competitive exchange rate devaluations; (3) an agenda to emphasize fairness could include: fair trading arrangements, implications of financial regulation for fairness and agreement on international corporate taxation to ensure companies pay their fair share of taxes.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

24. Repercussions of Ammar al-Hakim’s withdrawal from Iraq’s Islamic Supreme Council

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Ammar al-Hakim’s announcement on July 24, 2017 that he is stepping down as the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) came after generation- al con icts surfaced between a number of the Coun- cil’s senior gures, who had visited Tehran to demand that he should be pressured over his reliance on the youth. Moreover, al-Hakim himself rejected attempts by senior members of the council to assume govern- ment positions, and even sought to build unique rela- tions with Arab and Western countries by presenting himself as an acceptable moderate Shiite gure. The outgoing leader is preparing for the upcoming elec- tions to be held across Iraq.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

25. What is Iran’s Approach to US-North Korea Crisis?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The escalating crisis between the United States and North Korea is of special importance for Iran. Firstly, the US Administration of President Donald Trump has designated both Iran and North Korea as an imminent threat to the national security of the United States. The approach builds on the administration of former president George W. Bush’s repeated labelling of Iran and North Korea, as well as Iraq, as key rogue states of the so-called axis of evil, who sponsor terrorism and seek to ac- quire weapons of mass destruction.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

26. Alternative Alliances Why Is Hamas Seeking Stronger Relations with Iran?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Islamic Resistance Movement (more commonly known as Hamas) has recently intensified its efforts to enhance its relations with Iran, especially after President Hassan Rouhani was elected for a second term. It also seeks to invest favorable official attitudes inside Iran where most main- stream political parties are urging for what they believe is necessary support to some organizations operating across the region, including the occupied Palestinian Territories, and resume full- fledged relations with Hamas.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

27. Political and Social Change in Egypt: Preludes to the January Uprising

Author:: Andrea Teti
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: The Arab Transformations Project is an international research project operating within the European Commission’s FP7 framework. The project looks comparatively at attitudes and behaviours in the context of the social, political and economic transformations taking place across Middle East and North Africa since February 2011. The countries covered are Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

28. MENA Population’s Perceptions of Key Challenges, International Context and the Role of the European Union

Author:: Andrea Teti, Pamela Abbott, Paolo Maggiolini, and Valeria Talbot
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: Survey data from the ArabTrans 2014 survey contains a unique battery of questions pertaining to the perception of the European Union. This report builds on those questions to analyse perceptions of the EU, its development cooperation programmes, its promotion of democracy, the appropriateness of its response to the Arab Uprisings, and the perception of the EU as an international actor. Overall, the data suggests low levels of awareness and relatively negative opinions of the EU’s actions both in general and in the specific context of its response to the Arab Uprisings. However, respondents’ preferences also suggest avenues for policy development for the Union such that it might simultaneously achieve its interests and meet the demands of MENA populations. Throughout, the paper also takes note of specific patterns and conditions found in individual countries which present particular challenges for the EU.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

29. Turkey Israel deal: A key to long term reconciliation ?

Author:: Selin Nasi
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: Turkey Israel deal: A key to long term reconciliation ?
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Turkey and Israel

30. Is the Saudi Throne Shaking?

Author:: Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: Under the pretext of waging an anti-corruption campaign, King Salman of Saudi Arabia, in concert with his son Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (known as MBS), undertook one of the most dramatic moves in Saudi politics ever taken. They ordered the arrest of 11 royal princes, four former ministers, the chief of the Royal Navy, former heads of the Royal Cabinet, and scores of ex-officials and businessmen, including international financier Al-Waleed bin Talal.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Saudi Arabia

31. Iran’s New Defense Minister Is Committed to Iran’s Missile Program and the Export of the Revolution

Author:: Michael Segall
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: The new Iranian defense minister, Brigadier General Amir Hatami, strongly supports the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its commander Qasem Soleimani, and the “resistance front.”
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Iran

32. SIPRI compendium on Article 36 reviews

Author:: Dr Vincent Boulanin and Maaike Verbruggen
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: Article 36 of the 1977 Additional Protocol I to the 1949 Geneva Conventions imposes a practical obligation on states to review the legality of all new weapons, means or methods of warfare before they are used in an armed conflict. To encourage more widespread compliance with the obligation of Article 36 and support confidence building in the area of legal reviews, SIPRI has developed a compendium of existing national Article 36 review procedures. The compendium describes how the review process is conducted in the following countries: Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

33. The good, the bad and the Gülenists

Author:: Asli Aydıntaşbaş
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: According to the Turkish government, the Gülenist movement is at the heart of the failed coup attempt of 15 July. Fethullah Gülen, the movement's leader is a former ally of the Turkish president and one of the country's most powerful and influential forces. With the help of the Turkish government, the Gülen movement successfully created a deep state within the Turkish bureaucracy and persecuted political enemies in show trials in 2008-2013. The movement is opaque and secretive in the state bureaucracy. There is enough evidence linking followers of Gülen to the coup but evidence pointing to Fethullah Gülen himself remains scant. Turkey’s extradition request for Fethullah Gülen will continue to create turbulence in Turkey’s relationship with Washington. For the US, this is a legal matter; for Ankara, a prerequisite for partnership. The Turkish government has embarked on a massive purge to "clean the state", involving tens of thousands of state employees, banks, and companies. In its quest to protect Turkish democracy by purging Gülenists, the Turkish government needs to make sure it does not destroy the frail democracy it is trying to save.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Turkey

34. Medium-Intensity Threats: The Case for Beefed-Up IDF Ground Forces

Author:: Eado Hecht and Eitan Shamir
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: Some pundits contend that in the absence of a direct threat from state armies, and in a situation where terror, guerrilla and rocket threats predominate, Israel no longer needs heavy maneuvering formations. This 50-page study by Dr. Eado Hecht and Dr. Eitan Shamir of the BESA Center argues the contrary. The rise in capabilities of non-state actors represents a new intermediate-level threat to Israel; creating several plausible threat scenarios that require large, highly-capable ground formations. The IDF’s recent force-buildup plan, which gives priority to the air force and to precision-fire assets over ground units, is mistaken.
Topic:: International Security and Non State Actors
Political Geography:: Israel

35. Popular Struggles and Elite Co-Optation: The Nuer White Army in South Sudan's Civil War

Author:: John Young
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: The Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) for Sudan and South Sudan is a multi-year project administered by the Small Arms Survey. It was developed in cooperation with the Canadian government, the United Nations Mission in Sudan, the United Nations Development Programme, and a wide array of international and Sudanese partners. Through the active generation and dissemination of timely, empirical research, the project supports violence reduction initiatives, including disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration programmes, incentive schemes for civilian arms collection, as well as security sector reform and arms control interventions across Sudan and South Sudan. The HSBA also offers policy-relevant advice on redressing insecurity.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, United Nations, International Security, Reform, and UNDP
Political Geography:: Sudan and South Sudan

36. Regional Organizations and the UN Programme of Action on Small Arms

Author:: Eric G. Berman and Kerry Maze
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: The UN Programme of Action to Prevent, Combat and Eradicate the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects (PoA) provides an increasingly critical framework for governments and civil society. Armed groups continue to illegally access and use illegal weapons to mount mass attacks on civilians and terrorize cities and communities, commit human rights violations and banditry, and incite and prolong armed conflicts. Some 60 million people are displaced due to war and insecurity (UNHCR, 2016). Armed attacks and kidnappings directed at humanitarian workers are at record highs. Armed groups are increasingly disregarding international humanitarian law and, as a result, are blocking much needed assistance to populations at risk.1 The vast majority of deaths from armed violence do not occur in conflict settings, however. Of the more than 500,000 lives that are lost annually to armed violence, in some countries small arms––many of them illicit––are used in more than three out of four homicides (Geneva Declaration Secretariat, 2015).
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, International Security, Governance, Weapons, and UNDP
Political Geography:: Global Focus

37. A New Development Agenda: Bridging the Development–Security Divide

Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Weapons play a pivotal role in violence and insecurity worldwide: around 44 per cent of all violent deaths involve the use of firearms (Geneva Declaration Secretariat, 2015, p. 2). Given their typically long life spans, small arms can circu- late in a region or between regions over dec- ades, while in the wrong hands even small quantities of arms and ammunition can have destabilizing effects. In particular, the illicit proliferation of arms and ammunition is a driver of modern armed conflicts, often pro- longing their effects (Anders, 2015; Diehl and Jenzen-Jones, 2014; Florquin and Leff, 2014). Flows of illicit arms also affect countries sup- posedly ‘at peace’, contributing to high levels of violence (Schroeder, 2013; 2014; 2016).
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, International Security, Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, Military Affairs, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Global Focus

38. A New Development Agenda: Bridging the Development–Security Divide

Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Weapons play a pivotal role in violence and insecurity worldwide: around 44 per cent of all violent deaths involve the use of firearms (Geneva Declaration Secretariat, 2015, p. 2). Given their typically long life spans, small arms can circu- late in a region or between regions over dec- ades, while in the wrong hands even small quantities of arms and ammunition can have destabilizing effects. In particular, the illicit proliferation of arms and ammunition is a driver of modern armed conflicts, often pro- longing their effects (Anders, 2015; Diehl and Jenzen-Jones, 2014; Florquin and Leff, 2014). Flows of illicit arms also affect countries sup- posedly ‘at peace’, contributing to high levels of violence (Schroeder, 2013; 2014; 2016).
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, International Security, Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, Military Affairs, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Global Focus

39. A New Development Agenda: Bridging the Development–Security Divide

Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Weapons play a pivotal role in violence and insecurity worldwide: around 44 per cent of all violent deaths involve the use of firearms (Geneva Declaration Secretariat, 2015, p. 2). Given their typically long life spans, small arms can circu- late in a region or between regions over dec- ades, while in the wrong hands even small quantities of arms and ammunition can have destabilizing effects. In particular, the illicit proliferation of arms and ammunition is a driver of modern armed conflicts, often pro- longing their effects (Anders, 2015; Diehl and Jenzen-Jones, 2014; Florquin and Leff, 2014). Flows of illicit arms also affect countries sup- posedly ‘at peace’, contributing to high levels of violence (Schroeder, 2013; 2014; 2016).
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, International Security, Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, Military Affairs, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Global Focus

40. A New Development Agenda: Bridging the Development–Security Divide

Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Weapons play a pivotal role in violence and insecurity worldwide: around 44 per cent of all violent deaths involve the use of firearms (Geneva Declaration Secretariat, 2015, p. 2). Given their typically long life spans, small arms can circu- late in a region or between regions over dec- ades, while in the wrong hands even small quantities of arms and ammunition can have destabilizing effects. In particular, the illicit proliferation of arms and ammunition is a driver of modern armed conflicts, often pro- longing their effects (Anders, 2015; Diehl and Jenzen-Jones, 2014; Florquin and Leff, 2014). Flows of illicit arms also affect countries sup- posedly ‘at peace’, contributing to high levels of violence (Schroeder, 2013; 2014; 2016).
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, International Security, Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, Military Affairs, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Global Focus

41. Measuring Illicit Arms Flows: SDG Target 16.4

Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: In September 2015 UN member states adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which replaced the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (2000–15) with a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. While reaffirming core MDG aims, such as poverty reduction and the promotion of health care and education, these SDGs and targets tackle a much broader range of factors driving underdevelopment, includ- ing violence and insecurity (UNGA, 2015a).
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, United Nations, International Security, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

42. Measuring Illicit Arms Flows: SDG Target 16.4

Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: In September 2015 UN member states adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which replaced the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (2000–15) with a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. While reaffirming core MDG aims, such as poverty reduction and the promotion of health care and education, these SDGs and targets tackle a much broader range of factors driving underdevelopment, includ- ing violence and insecurity (UNGA, 2015a).
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, United Nations, International Security, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

43. Measuring Illicit Arms Flows: SDG Target 16.4

Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: In September 2015 UN member states adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which replaced the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (2000–15) with a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. While reaffirming core MDG aims, such as poverty reduction and the promotion of health care and education, these SDGs and targets tackle a much broader range of factors driving underdevelopment, includ- ing violence and insecurity (UNGA, 2015a).
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, United Nations, International Security, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

44. Measuring Illicit Arms Flows: SDG Target 16.4

Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: In September 2015 UN member states adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which replaced the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (2000–15) with a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. While reaffirming core MDG aims, such as poverty reduction and the promotion of health care and education, these SDGs and targets tackle a much broader range of factors driving underdevelopment, includ- ing violence and insecurity (UNGA, 2015a).
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, United Nations, International Security, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

45. Measuring Illicit Arms Flows: SDG Target 16.4

Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: In September 2015 UN member states adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which replaced the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (2000–15) with a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. While reaffirming core MDG aims, such as poverty reduction and the promotion of health care and education, these SDGs and targets tackle a much broader range of factors driving underdevelopment, includ- ing violence and insecurity (UNGA, 2015a).
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, United Nations, International Security, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

46. Measuring Illicit Arms Flows: SDG Target 16.4

Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: In September 2015 UN member states adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which replaced the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (2000–15) with a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. While reaffirming core MDG aims, such as poverty reduction and the promotion of health care and education, these SDGs and targets tackle a much broader range of factors driving underdevelopment, includ- ing violence and insecurity (UNGA, 2015a).
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, United Nations, International Security, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

47. Measuring Illicit Arms Flows: SDG Target 16.4

Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: In September 2015 UN member states adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which replaced the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (2000–15) with a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. While reaffirming core MDG aims, such as poverty reduction and the promotion of health care and education, these SDGs and targets tackle a much broader range of factors driving underdevelopment, includ- ing violence and insecurity (UNGA, 2015a).
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, United Nations, International Security, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

48. The Online Trade of Light Weapons in Libya

Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: While it was in power the Qaddafi regime tightly regulated the Libyan domestic arms trade, and local black market sales were virtually unheard of. Supplies were constrained as well—international sanctions prohibited the legal importation of arms into Libya from 1992 to 2003.1 Even when sanctions were lifted in September 2003 and international arms exports began to flow again (supplementing the Qaddafi regime’s already massive government arsenal), the domestic arms trade was stagnant (Jenzen-Jones and McCollum, forthcoming). The Libyan revolution deposed the Qaddafi regime in 2011 and with it brought to an end the Libyan state’s regulation of the arms trade. Military stockpiles were raided, and small arms and light weapons made their way into the hands of non-state armed groups and private sellers.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, International Security, Military Strategy, Non State Actors, Sanctions, Military Affairs, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Libya

49. Dribs and Drabs

Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: This iconic line from the 2005 film Lord of War conveys widely held assumptions about international arms traffickers: that they are ambitious, well-connected, globe-trotting entre-preneurs who single-handedly arm criminals and militias throughout the world. The film’s fictional protagonist, Yuri Orlov, is based on five actual arms dealers, including Russian businessman Viktor Bout, whose vast global network of shell companies and unsavoury clients earned him the moniker ‘the Merchant of Death’ (Gilchrist, 2005). The composite image of Bout and his peers has become the archetypal arms trafficker, the image that comes to mind whenever the illicit arms trade is discussed. Yet most arms traffickers bear little resemblance to that image.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, International Security, Military Strategy, Mass Media, Military Affairs, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Global Focus

50. Checks and Balances: Securing Small Arms during Peace Operations

Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Since the Panel on United Nations Peace Operations released its seminal report in 2000, UN missions have grown considerably in size and com- plexity. As of November 2015, more than 100,000 uniformed personnel were serving in UN peace operations—a three-fold increase since 2000 and a 50 per cent rise since 2005 (UNDPKO, 2005; UNGA and UNSC, 2015b, p. 20). These troops, military observers, and police officers increasingly operate in large, underdeveloped countries, alongside violent armed groups that show little interest in political compromise and have few compunctions about attacking UN forces (UNGA and UNSC, 2015b, pp. 21–22). Succeeding in these environments requires that peacekeepers be well trained and well armed.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Politics, United Nations, International Security, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

51. American Nuclear Diplomacy

Author:: Daniel Poneman
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Today, as a species, we face two existential threats: nuclear annihilation and catastrophic climate change. Both stem from human origins. We need to fight both threats aggressively. There are many things we can and should do to tackle the climate threat, beginning with putting a price on carbon emissions, promoting market mechanisms that reward efficiency, leveling the playing field for all lower-carbon energy sources, and leveraging the Paris Climate Agreement into more effective international action. But even adding up all existing national commitments to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, and assuming perfect execution, the world falls far short of the cuts needed to avoid catastrophic climate change. The expanded use of nuclear energy can make a major contribution to closing that gap and meeting our climate goals. But inherent in the use of atomic fission is the risk that the technology and materials can be diverted to terrorists or hostile nations.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Human Welfare, Markets, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Global Markets
Political Geography:: Global Focus

52. American Nuclear Diplomacy

Author:: Daniel Poneman
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Today, as a species, we face two existential threats: nuclear annihilation and catastrophic climate change. Both stem from human origins. We need to fight both threats aggressively. There are many things we can and should do to tackle the climate threat, beginning with putting a price on carbon emissions, promoting market mechanisms that reward efficiency, leveling the playing field for all lower-carbon energy sources, and leveraging the Paris Climate Agreement into more effective international action. But even adding up all existing national commitments to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, and assuming perfect execution, the world falls far short of the cuts needed to avoid catastrophic climate change. The expanded use of nuclear energy can make a major contribution to closing that gap and meeting our climate goals. But inherent in the use of atomic fission is the risk that the technology and materials can be diverted to terrorists or hostile nations.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Human Welfare, Markets, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Global Markets
Political Geography:: Global Focus

53. American Nuclear Diplomacy

Author:: Daniel Poneman
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Today, as a species, we face two existential threats: nuclear annihilation and catastrophic climate change. Both stem from human origins. We need to fight both threats aggressively. There are many things we can and should do to tackle the climate threat, beginning with putting a price on carbon emissions, promoting market mechanisms that reward efficiency, leveling the playing field for all lower-carbon energy sources, and leveraging the Paris Climate Agreement into more effective international action. But even adding up all existing national commitments to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, and assuming perfect execution, the world falls far short of the cuts needed to avoid catastrophic climate change. The expanded use of nuclear energy can make a major contribution to closing that gap and meeting our climate goals. But inherent in the use of atomic fission is the risk that the technology and materials can be diverted to terrorists or hostile nations.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Human Welfare, Markets, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Global Markets
Political Geography:: Global Focus

54. The Importance of Being Ernst: Ernst David Bergmann and Israel’s Role in Taiwan’s Defense

Author:: Yitzhak Shichor
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS), Georgetown University in Qatar
Abstract:: Since the early 1960s when Taiwanese officials met Professor Ernst David Bergmann, the first chairman of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, he played a significant role in Taiwan’s nuclear (and missile) programs. In Taiwan, which he visited occasionally and maintained close relations with President Chiang Kai-shek and its military-technological-scientific complex, Bergmann also facilitated some of Israel’s conventional military transfers to Taiwan. While some of his activities in Taiwan may have been approved by the Israeli Ministry of Defense (which followed its own foreign policy), the Foreign Ministry took exception, well before Jerusalem’s rapprochement with Beijing. Israel’s military relations with the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan) had been aborted by the mid-1990s, even though attempts have been made to resume defense links. Since his death in 1975—one day after Chiang Kai-shek’s—and definitely before, Ernst Bergmann has been considered, implicitly but lately explicitly, a prominent player in Taiwan’s defense modernization and one of the forefathers of its nuclear program.
Topic:: International Security, Military Affairs, Nuclear Power, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Israel and Taiwan

55. Navigating Complexity: Climate, Migration and Conflict in a Changing World

Author:: Wilson Center
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: Climate change is expected to contribute to the movement of people through a variety of means. There is also significant concern climate change may influence violent conflict. But our understanding of these dynamics is evolving quickly and sometimes producing surprising results. There are considerable misconceptions about why people move, how many move, and what effects they have. In a discussion paper for USAID’s Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation, the Environmental Change and Security Program presents a guide to this controversial and consequential nexus of global trends. Building off a workshop held at the Wilson Center last year, we provide a background scan of relevant literature and an in-depth analysis of the high-profile cases of Darfur and Syria to discern policy-relevant lessons from the latest research.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Climate Change, International Organization, Migration, and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

56. The Nuclear Terrorism Threat: How Real Is It?

Author:: Michael Brian Jenkins and John Lauder
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:: After the Cold War and nearly 70 years of waging war against communism, the United States and its key allies have adopted the war against terror as their new organizing principal. The king of terrorist threats, however, is nuclear terrorism. As Vice President Dick Cheney once argued, “if there is a one percent chance” of a terrorist developing a nuclear weapon, “we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response.”1
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

57. A, B, C – Deployment of Civilian Capacities to International Peace Operations

Author:: Denis Hadžović
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:: After the end of the Cold War traditional peacekeeping has become more complex and multidimensional, including not only military but also civilian, political and humanitarian tasks.1 The concept of peacekeeping thus broadened into a concept of peacebuilding, which dates back to the post-World War II reconstruction of Europe and Japan. The term ‘peacebuilding’ entered the international lexicons in the early 1990s when the then United Nations Secretary General Boutros- Boutros Ghali defined it in his 1992 Agen- da for Peace as “...Action to identify and support structures which will tend to strengthen and solidify peace in order to avoid a relapse into conflict“.
Topic:: Peace Studies, International Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Global Focus

58. The Future of International Police Missions in the New Global Security Environment – Contribution of Western Balkans Police Forces to EU’s International Policing

Author:: Andreja Bogdanovski and Uros Zivkovic
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The existence of a police component in UN peace operations is not a novelty. It goes back half a century ago and was first introduced in the Congo in the 1960’s. Embedding police components in UN missions became more extensive at the end of the 90’s. Over the years, with the change of the context of conflicts (from interstate to intrastate) peace support operations have evolved and are now very much shaped to reflect political and security developments on the ground. International policing efforts are an extremely important factor in establishing and maintaining international security today. Although military peace support operations and national military contributions are predominant, not all security problems can have a military solution. Regardless of the security context, police functions and mechanisms are extremely necessary for a successful peace support operation.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, International Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Global Focus

59. Responding to Security Challenges in East Asia: Three Perspectives

Author:: John Ravenhill
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: This paper examines the security context of the Australia- Indonesia relationship. East Asia presents a fundamental paradox for scholars of international relations. It has arguably more sources of interstate tension than any other region of the developing world. However, it has experienced no signi cant interstate con ict since the end of the China-Vietnam war in 1979. After brie y reviewing the principal security challenges that East Asia faces, the paper then looks at the three categories of explanations for the long peace in the region: hegemony and balancing; institutions and elite socialization; and economic interdependence. By early 2016, East Asia appeared to be facing the most unsettled security environment it has experienced for four decades. The new sources of interstate tensions present challenges for the mechanisms that have previously maintained peace in the region. Washington’s “pivot” to Asia has brought the United States into a more direct policy of balancing against China than in the past — but its sustainability and medium-term consequences remain unclear. Meanwhile, regional institutions, despite growing in numbers, are seemingly incapable of effectively addressing the new security challenges. A need for better leadership and initiatives is evident, both within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and in the broader regional context. Finally, recent developments in the region and elsewhere have illustrated the challenges of using economic interdependence as a lever over unwelcome state behaviour.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Australia/Pacific

60. The Evolution of Bonding Technology, Creditor Committees and the IMF

Author:: James A. Haley
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: This paper reviews a range of issues associated with proposals for creditor engagement clauses (CECs) in sovereign bond contracts. CECs have moved onto the international policy agenda in the wake of the recent introduction of model “second-generation” collective action clauses (CACs) designed to address problems highlighted by the protracted litigation between Argentina and its holdout creditors. Speci cally, the new CACs should limit the ability of holdout creditors to impede restructurings acceptable to a supermajority of creditors and address the problematic interpretation of pari passu language that has plagued the Argentina debt restructuring. However, the introduction of these clauses, building on the foundation laid a decade ago by Mexico’s innovation of rst-generation CACs, has led some observers to express concerns that the sovereign debt restructuring playing eld has become “tilted” to the bene t of sovereign borrowers. Recent contractual innovations should be balanced, these experts contend, with CECs requiring sovereign issuers to convene and negotiate with creditor committees.
Topic:: International Security and Digital Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

61. Patents and Internet Standards

Author:: Jorge L Contreras
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: In recent years, high-pro le lawsuits involving standards- essential patents (SEPs) have made headlines in the United States, Europe and Asia, leading to a heated public debate regarding the role and impact of patents covering key interoperability standards. Enforcement agencies around the world have investigated and prosecuted alleged violations of competition law and private licensing commitments in connection with SEPs. Yet, while the debate has focused broadly on standardization and patents in the information and communications technology (ICT) sector, commentators have paid little attention to differences among technology layers within ICT. A review of case statistics shows that patent ling and assertion activity is substantially lower for Internet- related standards than for standards relating to telecommunications and other computing technologies. This paper analyzes historical and social factors that may have contributed to this divergence, focusing on the two principal Internet standards bodies: the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) and the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C). It offers a counternarrative to the dominant account portraying standards and SEPs as necessarily fraught with litigation and thereby in need of radical systemic change. Instead, it shows how standards policies that de-emphasize patent monetization have led to lower levels of disputes and litigation. It concludes by placing recent discussions of patenting and standards within the broader context of openness in network technologies and urges both industry participants and policy makers to look to the success of Internet standardization in a patent-light environment when considering the adoption of future rules and policies.
Topic:: Science and Technology, International Security, and Information Age
Political Geography:: Global Focus

62. The Relative Importance of Religion and Region in Explaining Differences in Political Economic and Social Attitudes in Iraq in 2014: Findings from the Arab Transformations Public Opinion Survey

Author:: Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: Based on the Arab Transformations survey of Iraq in 2014, this paper examines the relative weight of religious identification and region of residence in several key areas, including main challenges perceived by the population, perceptions of security, of economic conditions, of governance, political mobilisation, corruption, and migration. Contrary to the perception that sectarian identity is the most important factor in understanding contemporary Iraqi politics, this analysis shows that religious identification is often a confounding variable, and that regional location better captures variations in respondents’ perceptions, including in key areas such as security, the economy, and migration.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

63. After the Arab Uprisings: Popular Expectations and the EU’s Response

Author:: Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: The Arab Uprisings moved the EU to learn lessons from past mistakes and re-define its approach to development, democracy, and security. Reality, however, has fallen short of this aim. Analysis of the revised Neighbourhood Policy suggests it changed little, falling back on pre-Uprisings conceptions and discarding approaches which were more inclusive, organic, and better suited to long-term EU interests. Conversely, ArabTrans survey data shows MENA populations display precisely the more substantive and holistic approaches to democracy which EU policy discarded. It also shows supporters of the Uprisings were driven by dissatisfaction with the provision of satisfactory socioeconomic conditions and tackling corruption, and that their expectations of improvements remain largely frustrated. This mis-match between policy and popular expectations leaves existing difficulties unaddressed.
Topic:: International Security, International Affairs, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: Middle East

64. Competing visions for Syria and Iraq: The Myth of an anti-ISIS coalition

Author:: Jennifer Cafarella
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute conducted an intensive multi-week planning exercise to frame, design, and evaluate potential courses of action that the United States could pursue to defeat the threat from the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria. ISW and CTP will publish the findings of this exercise in multiple reports. The first report examined America’s global grand strategic objectives as they relate to the threat from ISIS and al Qaeda.[1] This second report defines American strategic objectives in Iraq and Syria, identify the minimum necessary conditions for ending the conflicts there, and compare U.S. objectives with those of Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia in order to understand actual convergences and divergences. The differences mean that the U.S. cannot rely heavily on international partners to achieve its objectives. Subsequent reports will provide a detailed assessment of the situation on the ground in Syria and present the planning group’s evaluation of several courses of action.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Syria

65. Afghanistan Order of Battle

Author:: Morgan Wesley
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: The Afghanistan ORBAT (PDF) describes the location and area of responsibility of all American units in Afghanistan, down to the battalion level, updated as of February 2016..
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

66. Advancing U.S.-Australian Combined Amphibious Capabilities

Author:: Alvaro Genie, Jaimie Hoskins, Andrew Metrick, Maren Leed, J.D. McCreary, and George Flynn
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The demand for amphibious capabilities in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region reflects the operational and strategic challenges faced by the U.S. Marine Corps and Australian Defense Forces. Both nations have indicated the importance of deepening their strategic partnership, yet there has been a lack of clarity around the desired outcomes for and priority among the variety of cooperative activities. Recognizing that the demand for amphibious capabilities in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region will likely continue to exceed the current capacity of any one nation, the CSIS International Security Program sought to explore the strategic and operational utility of various models for combined amphibious forces. The study first provides an overview of existing and projected ADF and USMC amphibious capability and capacity. Using data gathered from interviews with U.S. and Australian subject matter experts, the study examines two potential force options along five dimensions: range/duration, responsiveness, scale, breadth, and force protection. These options are evaluated against three mission sets varying in complexity. As the United States continues to face shortfalls in amphibious capacity and as Australia continues to advance its capabilities, this report provides a framework and recommendations through which to align strategic interests and advance a shared vision for combined amphibious operations.
Topic:: International Security and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:: Australia/Pacific

67. Theories on Why North Korea Rejects the World

Author:: Victor Cha
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: North Korea last week rejected South Korea’s invitation to attend the Seoul Defense Dialogue in September, denigrating the talks as “puerile.” In the same breath, it also rejected a proposal by National Assembly speaker Chung Ui-hwa for a meeting with his northern counterpart to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the liberation of the Korean Peninsula on Aug. 15. If you ask an Obama administration official about America’s “strategic patience” policy of non-dialogue with North Korea, he or she will tell you that the problem is not an unwillingness on the part of the United States to have dialogue. On the contrary, the Obama administration has tried every channel possible, from six-party talks to personal communications to secret trips, to jump-start a dialogue. But the regime in Pyongyang has rejected all of these.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, and International Security
Political Geography:: United States, South Korea, and North Korea

68. Rethinking Engagement in Fragile States

Author:: Jennifer G. Cooke and Richard Downie
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Instability in fragile states is a frequent source of conflict and humanitarian crisis within countries, a driver of displacement and massive refugee flows, and often a threat to the stability and security of neighboring states. Economies in fragile states often underperform, their societies are divided, and their people suffer poor developmental and economic outcomes. Fragile states are home to nearly half the world’s population living in absolute poverty. Over the past year, CSIS held a series of workshops and public meetings examining the challenges of fragility in four states categorized as fragile: Mali, Myanmar, Somalia, and South Sudan. The aim was to examine each of these cases individually and to better understand the opportunities—and limitations—of external intervention. This report offers common themes and recommendations for external engagement in such fragile states.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid and International Security

69. Iraqi Stability and the “ISIS War”

Author:: Anthony H Cordesman
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The events in Iraq over the last month have shown that any success in Iraq requires both the Iraqi government and the United States to go far beyond the war against ISIS, and makes any partisan debate over who lost Iraq as damaging to U.S. national interests as any other aspect of America’s drift toward partisan extremism. The war against ISIS is a critical U.S. national security interest. It not only threatens to create a major center of terrorism and extremism in a critical part of the Middle East, and one that could spread to threaten the flow of energy exports and the global economy, but could become a major center of international terrorism. It is important to understand, however, that ISIS is only one cause of instability in the region, and only one of the threats caused by spreading sectarian and ethnic violence.
Topic:: Terrorism and International Security
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

70. What Youth Want

Author:: Ritu Sharma and Eric Simms
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In this review of 25 statements from youth summits and consultations globally, as well as 11 national and regional youth polls, we hear some priorities we expect: youth want jobs, the chance to start their own businesses, and high-quality relevant education. But we also see that young people everywhere are increasingly concerned about issues of governance, corruption, and both regional and national security.
Topic:: International Security, Labor Issues, and Youth Culture

71. Asian Conflicts Report: The Geopolitics of Extremism: ISIS in Asia

Author:: Carl Ungerer and Katy Dr. Oh Hassig
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Asia and Europe share a border, but not much else. Although the Mongols invaded Eastern Europe, and Marco Polo made it to China, a common assumption among policy makers and academics alike has been that the security challenges and perspectives between these contiguous continents have had little in common, and less to learn from each other. Past efforts to build academic and policy bridges have been nascent at best. But today’s threats to global and regional security have no problem crossing international borders. From the rise of violent extremism to the threat of pandemic diseases and cyber criminals, solutions to security problems will overwhelm any national, or indeed regional, effort to ‘go it alone’. Increasingly, as transnational threats become simultaneously local and global, the challenge for countries across both Asia and Europe is to find points of common interest and opportunities for genuine security cooperation.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Security, Violent Extremism, and ISIL
Political Geography:: Asia

72. EU home affairs diplomacy: why, what, where – and how

Author:: Hugo Brady and Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Home affairs matters such as border control, crime-fighting and counter-terrorism are all increasingly subject to international rule-setting and cooperation. The European Union is facing up to this challenge, under pressure of events but also thanks to a high degree of coordination between home affairs officials and diplomats. With its near abroad now host to mass movements of migrants, radical Islamist groups and transnational organised crime networks, the Union is investing in making the relationship between internal and external security processes more substantive. But enhanced coordination can only work if Europeans adopt the right geographical focus, toolkit and strategy. This Chaillot Paper explores the genesis of ‘home affairs diplomacy’ and how it has taken shape, and highlights the challenges as well as the opportunities that bringing together different policy communities (at both national and EU level) generates for a more confident and more ‘strategic’ European approach to an outside world that has become more connected and more complex than ever before.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Migration, International Security, European Union, and Counter-terrorism

73. CSDP in action – What contribution to international security?

Author:: Thierry Trady
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: This Chaillot Paper looks at CSDP operations and missions, and explores how they fit into the broader crisis management environment and multilateral efforts towards international peace. It highlights the inherent constraints facing CSDP and how these inevitably limit its overall impact or degree of success. The paper also examines the EU’s added value and the extent to which CSDP is moving forward at various levels.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, International Security, Peacekeeping, and European Union

74. Europe’s Return to UN Peacekeeping in Africa? Lessons from Mali

Author:: John Karlsrud and Adam C. Smith
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: In a break from recent tradition, European member states are currently contributing significant military capabilities to a United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operation in Africa. Europeans are providing more than 1,000 troops to the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) by staffing a wide range of operations including an intelligence fusion cell, transport and attack aircraft, and special forces. Yet for European troop-contributing countries (TCCs) that have spent several years working in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) operations in Afghanistan, participating in a UN mission has been a process of learning and adaptation. For the UN, the contributions of key capabilities by European countries have pushed the UN system to adjust to the higher expectations of the new European TCCs, which has proved difficult in Mali’s complicated operating environment and political situation.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, International Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa and Mali

75. Algeria and Its Neighbours

Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Algeria is emerging as an indispensable broker of stability in North Africa and the Sahel. Where insecurity, foreign meddling and polarisation are on the rise across the region, it has at key moments promoted dialogue and state-building as the best means for lifting neighbours out of crisis, thus to safeguard its own long-term security. What some call Algeria’s “return” to regional politics after a long absence since its “black-decade” civil war in the 1990s has been positive in many respects: its approach of promoting inclusion and compromise to stabilise its neighbours, driven by enlightened self-interest, presents an opportunity for an international system that has struggled to tackle the challenges engendered by the Arab uprisings. Yet, its ambitions have self-imposed limits. A moribund domestic political scene – a regime riven by factionalism and uncertainty over who might succeed an ailing President Abdelaziz Bouteflika – cast a fog over the political horizon. Relations with other powers with clout in the region, notably Morocco and France, have room for improvement
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, International Security, and Governance
Political Geography:: Algeria and North Africa

76. The Complexities of Global Protests

Author:: Thomas Carothers and Richard Young
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Major protests have occurred around the world with increasing frequency since the second half of the 2000s. Given the superficial resemblance of such events to each other—especially the dramatic images of masses of people in the streets—the temptation exists to reach for sweeping, general conclusions about what is happening. Yet it is in fact the heterogeneity of this current wave of protests that is its defining characteristic. The spike in global protests is becoming a major trend in international politics, but care is needed in ascertaining the precise nature and impact of the phenomenon.
Topic:: Civil Society, International Security, Political Theory, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

77. Combatting Cyber Threats: CSIRTs and Fostering International Cooperation on Cybersecurity

Author:: Samantha Bradshaw
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: This paper examines the role of computer security incident response teams (CSIRTs) in the emerging cyber regime complex and asks what might be driving the lack of trust and information sharing within the community. ThePow commercialization of cyber security and threat vulnerabilities, the Internet’s development as a new power domain, the growth of the CSIRT community and the emergence of a cyber regime complex are examined as factors that are giving rise to and exacerbating existing problems around information sharing and trust.
Topic:: National Security, Science and Technology, International Security, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

78. Geopolitics at the World's Pivot: Exploring Central Asia's Security Challenges

Author:: Jacqueline Lopour
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: This paper introduces Central Asia’s geopolitical significance and explores several inter-related security challenges. For each security issue, this paper provides a brief overview of the issue, explains why or how it developed and looks at the issue’s significance within the broader security environment. The paper then turns to Canada’s role in Central Asia and addresses opportunities to expand engagement in the security realm.
Topic:: Security, International Security, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Canada

79. How South Korea Could Acquire and Deploy Nuclear Weapons

Author:: James Fergusson
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:: Political leaders and defense planners in the Republic of Korea (ROK), or South Korea, are cognizant that worsening security in Northeast Asia could lead to additional states, including the ROK, to consider and even develop nuclear weapons. In particular, Korean President Park Geun-hye warned in May 2014 that another nuclear bomb test by North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or DPRK) would be “crossing a Rubicon” and would make it “difficult for us to prevent a nuclear domino from occurring in this area
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: South Korea

80. We Are Relevant, Influential and Respected

Author:: Sergey Ryabkov and Armen Oganesyan
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: To get down to the facts, in April, Russia’s BrICs presidency got off to a flying start. Within two and a half months, a number of major BrICs related events took place in Russia. Furthermore, a major nonproliferation forum took place, a review conference in new York from late April until late May. this event is held once every five years. and I should also mention perhaps a series of very important, intense and constructive contacts at the top and other levels with the leaders of Latin american countries. This sets the current year apart from the previous year and the year 2013.
Topic:: Economics, Human Welfare, International Security, and Financial Markets
Political Geography:: Russia

81. If You Want Peace, Prepare for Peace: Reflections Amid the Current Political Crisis

Author:: S. Kazennov and V. Kumachev
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The Path to Peace has always been thorny, unlike the path to war: it is always easier to walk down a slippery slope, while the expectations are often brighter than the results that are achieved, that is, of course unless the goal is to indulge in self-publicity on the captain’s bridge of an aircraft carrier, fly a victorious flag over Baghdad or “win a difficult victory over the opponents of democracy” ahead of elections in one’s own country. We are the avowed proponents of the “if you want peace, prepare for peace” approach, but under different circumstances, at different historical and geopolitical periods, “preparations” can and should be different. In one situation, the reduction of the military capability and “disarmament” are regarded by opponents and partners/rivals as the striving for the relaxation of international tensions and the building of new relations, with a new substance and with the “friendly” proportions of positive and confrontational interaction.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Politics, International Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Global Focus

82. Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future

Author:: Henry D. Sokolski
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military advantage, the problem of proliferation will become much more unwieldy. In this case, U.S. security will be hostage not just to North Korea, Iran, or terrorists, but to nuclear proliferation more generally, diplomatic miscalculations, and wars between a much larger number of possible players. This, in a nutshell, is the premise of Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, which explores what nuclear futures we may face over the next 3 decades and how we currently think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? How great will the consequences be? What can be done?
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, International Security, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Iran, North Korea, and United States of America

83. The Limits of Offshore Balancing

Author:: Dr. Hal Brands
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Is offshore balancing the right grand strategy for America? Is it time for Washington to roll back the vast system of overseas security commitments and forward military deployments that have anchored its international posture since World War II? This monograph argues that the answer to these questions is no. Offshore balancing represents the preferred grand strategy among many leading international-relations “realists,” who argue that significant geopolitical retrenchment can actually improve America’s strategic position while slashing the costs of its foreign policy. The reality, however, is rather different. The probable benefits of offshore balancing—both financial and geopolitical—are frequently exaggerated, while the likely disadvantages and dangers are more severe than its proponents acknowledge. In all likelihood, adopting this strategy would not allow America to achieve more security and influence at a lower price. The more plausible results would be to dissipate U.S. influence, to court heightened insecurity and instability, and to expose the nation to greater long-range risks and costs.
Topic:: Economics, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: United States of America

84. The State-Society/Citizen Relationship in Security Analysis: Implications for Planning and Implementation of U.S. Intervention and Peace/State-building Operations

Author:: Dr. Yannis A. Stivachtis
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The end of the Cold War, and especially the events of September 11, 2001, have led to the redefinition of the U.S. Army’s role. In this new environment, the purpose of the U.S. Army is not only to win a battle or a war, but also to be involved effectively in peace operations in post-conflict societies. To make the U.S. Army more effective requires prior knowledge about the political, societal, and cultural environment within which these operations would take place, as well as the acquisition of a new set of skills that would allow the U.S. Army to handle sensitive situations relevant to this environment. Due to the presence of several “weak” states in the international system, the United States needs to devise and employ strategies aimed at preventing and managing the outbreak of domestic conflicts that have the potential of undermining regional and international peace and stability. To avoid oversimplifications in the planning process, U.S. policymakers should have a comprehensive view of the relationship between the state experiencing domestic conflict and its society/citizens. For the design and effective implementation of peacemaking and peace/state-building policies, U.S. strategists should be fully aware of what constitutes a security issue for social groups and individuals in third countries. Thus, U.S. strategic planning and actions should be based on the adoption of the broaden definition of security as well as the idea of human security. Since international stability is based on the stability of states, the United States needs to assist the creation and maintenance of “strong” states.
Topic:: Politics, International Security, Peacekeeping, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: United States of America

85. Project 1704: A U.S. Army War College Analysis of Russian Strategy in Eastern Europe, an Appropriate U.S. Response, and the Implications for U.S. Landpower

Author:: Col. Douglas Mastriano
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The strategic calculus changed in Europe with the 2014 Russian seizure of Crimea and its ongoing war against Ukraine. Compounding the dilemma of an aggressive Russia, is the application of ambiguity to create a clock of uncertainty that prevents a decisive response to counter its destabilizing activities. However, this application of ambiguity is easily defeated, if nations are willing to take concerted efforts now to preempt and deter further Russian aggression. Project 1704 provides an honest assessment of the tenuous strategic environment that now envelopes Eastern Europe and offers specific recommendations on how to continue the 70 years of unparalleled peace that most of Europe has enjoyed.
Topic:: Politics, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Crimea

86. One Hundred Years’ War for the Right to Remain Russia

Author:: A. Ageev
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: In the last quarter of a century, it has become clear that neither great powers nor small and average states nor even the United States are happy with international chaos. No wonder, there is a (still latent) desire to move to a new international horizon of confidence and predictable behavior of all subjects of international relations. This is hardly surprising since in the last few years the world has been facing the unpredictable United States, the mightiest of international subjects, which has imposed on mankind a choice between a new world order and a worldwide military catastrophe. Is there a force strong enough to offer an alternative to the slipping into an abyss of hopelessness and initiate adequate measures? Which country except Putin’s Russia can shoulder the burden? Has the world found itself at the threshold of another Cold War which offers no choice but a third world war?
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Cold War, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and United States

87. Breaking the Nordic Defense Deadlock

Author:: Stefan Forss and Col. (Ret) Pekka Holopainen
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The Nordic states, just as other regions of Europe which neighbor Russia, are engaged in an urgent reexamination of their security and defense posture. Events in Ukraine in early-2014 threw into sharp focus a local lack of capability following decades of drawdowns and focus on crisis management operations instead of territorial defense. After an unpleasant awakening, countries in the region have turned their attention to the heightened security risks they face and their lack of preparedness for them.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, International Security, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

88. Ukraine’s relations with Russia, the EU and the US: The background, the current crisis and what must be done

Author:: Volodymyr Dubovyk
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: Since the beginning of Euromaidan (Maidan II), Ukraine finds itself entangled in a deep crisis, which, while not necessarily existential, dramatically alters the country’s internal dynamics and international positioning vis-à-vis its neighbors and other significant regional and global players. To handle this crisis, Ukraine must find the right method of dealing with international players, especially the Russian Federation, the European Union and the United States of America. Ukraine should take certain actions against the new super-assertive and aggressive Russia. The European Union unquestionably has provided significant aid to Ukraine during these turbulent times. However, there remains great potential for cooperation, and questions linger regarding whether the EU is prepared to foot the bill for pulling Ukraine’s economy away from the brink indefinitely. Finally, the United States should by all means continue doing its good work in bringing attention to the situation in and around Ukraine in a variety of ways, including multilateral venues, unilateral initiatives, and bilateral frameworks. The fact that Ukraine is located in Europe does not make this crisis a mere European problem but a conflict with global repercussions.
Topic:: International Relations, International Political Economy, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and European Union

89. The Crimean conundrum: What has happened and what to expect in the future

Author:: Oleksandr Fisun
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: The Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula represents a radical transformation of the system of international security on the European continent and in the wider context of the postwar “Yalta system” of interstate boundaries and their guarantees by major international players. The most important takeaway is that for the first time since World War II, one of the founders of the Yalta system of international boundaries has considered it within the realm of possibility to revisit its provisions by directly augmenting its own territory. This paper aims to analyze the outcomes of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the features of the newly formed regional political regime in Crimea, the role of Crimea in contemporary Ukrainian politics, as well as to present scenarios for the development of the geopolitical situation surrounding the “Crimean issue” in the context of the possible actions that primary geopolitical players may take.
Topic:: International Relations, International Organization, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea

90. Ukraine As A Buffer Zone? History Lessons For The New Geopolitics Of Eurasia

Author:: Thomas Graham, Rajan Menon, and Jack Snyder
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: Amidst calls for containing an assertive Russia, politicians and pundits have been debating whether Ukraine should serve as a “buffer zone” between the Russian and Western spheres of influence. Based on a survey of the history of buffer zones in Ukraine and elsewhere, we argue that buffer strategies are most likely to succeed in promoting international stability when three mutually reinforcing conditions obtain. First, the buffer state has the material strength, defensible geography, and social cohesiveness necessary to resist penetration, annexation, or partition. Second, states that may contemplate using war as a means to annex or dominate the buffer zone anticipate high risks and costs. Buffers survive when flanking powers are relatively weak, satisfied, skeptical that “offense is the best defense,” and chary of commitments to reckless allies and clients. Third, whether the major powers have agreed, implicitly or explicitly, on rules to regulate their rivalry in the buffer region may also affect the likelihood of a collision. Based on these findings, we are doubtful that Ukraine can serve as a reliable buffer.
Topic:: International Relations, International Organization, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia and Ukraine

91. The Challenge of Crimea for Russia’s Domestic and Foreign Policy

Author:: Sergei Markedonov
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: Following a period of 22 years as a part of independent Ukraine, the Crimean peninsula entered into Russian custody in the form of two separate subjects of the Federation. This event constitutes a watershed in Russian domestic policy and relations between Russia and other countries and also poses a serious challenge to security throughout Europe. The Russian government would do well to forestall their emergence, not by exerting force, but rather by raising the quality of infrastructure and resolving other social problems. Thus the acquisition of Crimea, for Russia, is not the “end of history,” but the beginning of a complex process of integrating not merely the territory, but more importantly, the peninsula’s inhabitants.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea

92. Non-State Militias and Borderlands in Eastern Ukraine

Author:: Kimberly Marten
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: Kimberly Marten considers the role that freewheeling private militias have played, both in the war in eastern Ukraine and in Ukraine’s politics more generally. While militias supplemented the Ukrainian army’s firepower, especially in the early phase of the war, we know from the experience of other countries that autonomous armed groups can also challenge the authority of the state and undermine its efficacy. How might militias shape Ukraine political trajectory and shape its security?
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, Non State Actors, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Ukraine and Eastern Europe

93. The United States and Ukraine—A Long, Hard Slog

Author:: Eugene Rumer
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: Eugene Rumer’s paper focuses on American foreign policy choices, notably the complexity of pursuing objectives, some of which cannot easily be reconciled: helping to consolidate democracy and promote economic reform in Ukraine, contributing to Ukraine’s stability, reassuring nervous NATO allies, and avoiding a confrontation with Russia. Given these goals, Rumer asks, what would constitute a sensible strategy, and how should it be pursued?
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Ukraine

94. Ukraine in Contemporary Geopolitical and Socioeconomic Relations

Author:: Grigoriy Shamborovskyi
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: This paper explores topics related to Ukraine’s Relations with Russia, the EU, and the US. These relationships are explored in terms of international trade, security issues and institution building. Finally, the existence of internal political and socioeconomic divisions is discussed.
Topic:: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, International Security, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:: Russia, America, Ukraine, and European Union

95. Crimea: Its Politics, Economy, and Resources

Author:: Yulia Tyshchenko
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: This article examines certain questions and challenges pertaining to the Russian Federation’s illegal annexation of Crimea in the domains of security and the violation of both property rights and human rights, abuses of which are systemic in the region. The issues I will discuss, pertaining to the illegal nationalization of private and state property in the annexed region of Ukraine, are problems that entangle the Russian Federation in complex land relations, which have the potential to fuel conflict. This article examines human rights violations linked with the annexation of the Crimea. Problems have arisen concerning the persecution of different ethnic and national groups—namely, Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians—by Crimean and Russian authorities. Currently, both Ukraine and the international community lack significant opportunities to influence Crimea’s politics and economy.
Topic:: Political Violence, Human Rights, International Political Economy, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea

96. On Cyberwarfare

Author:: Fred Schreier
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: The digital world has brought about a new type of clear and present danger: cyberwar. Since information technology and the internet have developed to such an extent that they have become a major element of national power, cyberwar has become the drumbeat of the day as nation-states are arming themselves for the cyber battlespace. Many states are not only conducting cyber espionage, cyber reconnaissance and probing missions; they are creating offensive cyberwar capabilities, developing national strategies, and engaging in cyber attacks with alarming frequency. Increasingly, there are reports of cyber attacks and network infiltrations that can be linked to nation-states and political goals. What is blatantly apparent is that more financial and intellectual capital is being spent figuring out how to conduct cyberwarfare than for endeavors aiming at how to prevent it.1In fact, there is a stunning lack of international dialogue and activity with respect to the containment of cyberwar. This is unfortunate, because the cyber domain is an area in which technological innovation and operational art have far outstripped policy and strategy, and because in principle, cyberwarfare is a phenomenon which in the end must be politically constrained.
Topic:: Intelligence, Science and Technology, International Security, and Communications
Political Geography:: Geneva

97. Public Private Cooperation: Challenges and Opportunities in Security Governance

Author:: Theodor H. Winkler and Benjamin S. Buckland
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: When faced with both traditional and non-traditional security challenges, states, acting alone, are poorly-equipped. Ad hoc security governance networks have increasingly been the response. Such networks involve cooperation between governments, the private sector, non-governmental and international organisations and enable actors to take advantage of geographical, technological, and knowledge resources they would be unable to muster alone. However, there are many as yet unanswered questions about the oversight and accountability of new governance networks, as well as about ways in which, on the positive side, they can better contribute to improved security. This paper looks at both the challenges and some potential solutions to the democratic governance challenges posed by public private cooperation in the security domain.
Topic:: Intelligence, Science and Technology, International Security, Communications, and Governance
Political Geography:: Geneva

98. Transition in Afghanistan: Losing the Forgotten War?

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: On December 29, 2014, the US President and Secretary of Defense announced the formal end to Operation Enduring Freedom, its combat mission in Afghanistan, which had begun in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks. They also stated that the US would begin its follow-on mission, Operation Freedom's Sentinel, at the start of 2015.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Defense Policy, International Security, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Afghanistan

99. Russia's Counterinsurgency in North Caucasus: Performance and Consequence

Author:: Ariel Dr. Cohen
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The North Caucasus region has been a source of instability for the past several centuries. Most recently, Chechen aspirations to achieve full independence after the break-up of the Soviet Union led to two disastrous wars. While the active phase of the Chechen conflict ended in 2000 – more than a decade ago—the underlying social, economic, and political issues of the region remain. A low-level insurgency continues to persist in the North Caucasus region, with occasional terrorist attacks in the Russian heartland. There are few reasons to expect any substantial improvement in the situation for years to come. Chechnya functions as a de facto independent entity; Islamist influence in Dagestan is growing, terror attacks continue, and the rest of the North Caucasus requires massive presence of Russian security services to keep the situation under control. Preventing the North Caucasus from slipping back into greater instability requires tackling corruption, cronyism, discrimination, and unemployment—something the Kremlin has so far not been very willing to do. “Small wars” in the Caucasus resonated as far away as Boston, MA, and more international attention and cooperation is necessary to prevent the region from blowing up.
Topic:: Political Violence, Politics, War, International Security, Self Determination, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia, Soviet Union, Chechnya, and North Caucasus

100. Maritime Security in the Middle East and North Africa: A Strategic Assessment

Author:: Robert M. Shelala II
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The waterways of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) are among the most important in the world. They facilitate the export of large volumes of oil and natural gas from the region, while also bridging traders in the Eastern and Western worlds through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. While political tensions in the region have at times played out in these waterways since the mid-20th century, their vulnerability has been exasperated in recent years by the failure of bordering governments to promote internal stability, the lack of adequate maritime security capabilities of nearby states, and the potential naval threats posed by the government of Iran.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, International Security, Military Strategy, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and North Africa

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