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152. The Challenges Facing Modern Ukraine: Oligarchy
- Author:
- Serhiy Leshchenko
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Modern-day Ukraine faces myriad challenges; chief among them is corruption and its derivative, oligarchy. By and large, Russia’s aggression in Crimea and eastern Ukraine was enabled by oligarchy. For deoligarchization to occur, Ukraine must adopt a law regulating transparency in media ownership that would require oligarchs to disclose their holdings
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, and Oligarchy
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
153. The Challenge of Crimea for Russia’s Domestic and Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Sergei Markedonov
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Following a period of 22 years as a part of independent Ukraine, the Crimean peninsula entered into Russian custody in the form of two separate subjects of the Federation. This event constitutes a watershed in Russian domestic policy and relations between Russia and other countries and also poses a serious challenge to security throughout Europe. The Russian government would do well to forestall their emergence, not by exerting force, but rather by raising the quality of infrastructure and resolving other social problems. Thus the acquisition of Crimea, for Russia, is not the “end of history,” but the beginning of a complex process of integrating not merely the territory, but more importantly, the peninsula’s inhabitants.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea
154. Non-State Militias and Borderlands in Eastern Ukraine
- Author:
- Kimberly Marten
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Kimberly Marten considers the role that freewheeling private militias have played, both in the war in eastern Ukraine and in Ukraine’s politics more generally. While militias supplemented the Ukrainian army’s firepower, especially in the early phase of the war, we know from the experience of other countries that autonomous armed groups can also challenge the authority of the state and undermine its efficacy. How might militias shape Ukraine political trajectory and shape its security?
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, Non State Actors, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine and Eastern Europe
155. The United States and Ukraine—A Long, Hard Slog
- Author:
- Eugene Rumer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Eugene Rumer’s paper focuses on American foreign policy choices, notably the complexity of pursuing objectives, some of which cannot easily be reconciled: helping to consolidate democracy and promote economic reform in Ukraine, contributing to Ukraine’s stability, reassuring nervous NATO allies, and avoiding a confrontation with Russia. Given these goals, Rumer asks, what would constitute a sensible strategy, and how should it be pursued?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and Ukraine
156. How best to explain the Russia/Ukraine/EU crisis from different theoretical perspectives of international relations
- Author:
- Klaus Segbers
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Many attempts have been made to interpret and explain the Russian annexation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine. These signal events can be approached from different theoretical angles. The purpose of this short piece is to critically question the usefulness and appropriateness of state‐centered approaches that have been, and are yet, dominant and popular – most likely because they are so easy to apply intuitively.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Political Theory, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea
157. Ukraine’s relations with the EU and Russia: Why geopolitics and domestic reforms are linked
- Author:
- Iryna Solonenko
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper discusses Ukraine’s choice between maintain relations with the EU and Russia, a choice that is not merely a foreign policy choice or a choice between two integration models. Rather, it represents a choice between two normative orders or two different value systems. If Ukraine succeeds in pursuing the European model and breaking away from its tradition of a “captured state,” Russian leverage in Ukraine will also diminish. Therefore, undertaking this transformation is of crucial – if not existential – importance for Ukraine. The very survival of Ukraine’s statehood will depend on it.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
158. From Greater Europe to Greater Asia? The Sino-Russian Entente
- Author:
- Dmitri V. Trenin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The rupture between Russia and the West stemming from the 2014 crisis over Ukraine has wide-ranging geopolitical implications. Russia has reverted to its traditional position as a Eurasian power sitting between the East and the West, and it is tilting toward China in the face of political and economic pressure from the United States and Europe. This does not presage a new Sino-Russian bloc, but the epoch of post-communist Russia's integration with the West is over. In the new epoch, Russia will seek to expand and deepen its relations with non-Western nations, focusing on Asia. Western leaders need to take this shift seriously.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, and Europe
159. Russian Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean: Return to the "Strategic Game" in a Complex-Interdependent Post-Cold War World?
- Author:
- Dr. R. Evan Ellis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- In February 2015, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu traveled to Latin America to meet with leaders and defense officials in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Although the visit included Russian participation in a Venezuelan military exercise, the focus of the meetings in all three countries was on access to ports and airfields in the region in order to support Russian military operations in the vicinity of the United States.1 The discussions bore the most fruit in Nicaragua, where Minister Shoigu signed an agreement to facilitate Russian access to the ports of Corinto and Bluefields, as well as strengthening counter-drug cooperation and discussing weapons sales.2
- Topic:
- International Relations, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Latin America, Venezuela, and United States of America
160. Canada and Asia: Prosperity and Security
- Author:
- Marius Grinius
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- Arguably the mid-1990s were Canada’s “Golden Age of Asia”, highlighted by the Team Canada trade visits by Prime Minister Jean Chretien and the provincial Premiers to China, India, Pakistan and Japan, as well as to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand. At the same time Canada played a prominent role in Asian security matters. This included Canadian expert participation in multilateral discussions on the South China Sea and in the North Pacific Cooperative Security Dialogue, a Canadian initiative. That particular Golden Age culminated with the Government proclaiming 1997 as “Canada’s Year of Asia Pacific”. Trade statistics indicate that Canada has once again rediscovered Asia, at least in terms of commercial prospects. What is less clear, however, is Canada’s commitment to the security and stability challenges that Asia continues to face. Notwithstanding all of the positive indicators of economic success in the Asia-Pacific region and all of the incentives for even greater prosperity within a predictable and peaceful environment, there are still many instances of potential military conflict that could jeopardize Asia’s economic successes. While Canada has considerable economic interests in Asia Pacific, its security record there is modest. Now, when China is our number two trading partner and Japan is number three, when we have our first Asian Free Trade Agreement, when we are looking to closer economic ties with the Asia-Pacific region, it would make sense for Canada to contribute more substantially to Asia Pacific’s long-term stability and security architecture. It has in the past. Canada has expressed its desire to join the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus Forum. It appears, however, that ASEAN is still not quite convinced of Canada’s commitment to Southeast Asia, or to Asia, and continues politely to stall until such time as Canada can show a serious, long-term track record of participation in ASEAN strategic and security priorities. The Asian way requires frequent and consistent face-time. Relationships matter. The regular message from polite ASEAN interlocutors remains the same: where is Canada? From the late 1980s and to about 2006, Canadian academic experts were closely involved in all relevant Asian fora, including the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, the Council for Security Cooperation in Asia Pacific and the North Pacific Cooperative Security Dialogue. The Canadian Consortium on Asia Pacific Security, a group of some one hundred researchers across Canada, was highly active in Track II diplomacy (informal, non-governmental and unofficial) on Asian security issues. This included Canadian Law of the Sea experts who addressed South China Sea issues, a ten-year effort co-hosted and funded by Indonesia and CIDA. Government of Canada funding for this type of work, however, has dried up. All current Canadian Track II efforts are funded by private institutions. Just when China is taking an aggressive stance in the South China Sea, Canada is absent. Canada must demonstrate a stronger and more consistent commitment to Asia that goes well beyond the economic-commercial dimension. It must include a robust defence and security dimension. Canada has, for now, chosen to emphasize a mercantile foreign policy. Such an approach, however, must not ignore the need for a strong defence policy anchored within a vigorous foreign policy that is able to meet the challenges of the twenty-first century. This applies to Canada’s approach to the Asia-Pacific region as much as to the rest of the world. Neither a “Global Markets Action Plan” nor a separate “Canada First Defence Strategy”, both formulated in a policy vacuum, is sufficient. There is a serious need for a Foreign Policy and complementary Defence Policy review, one where the Asia-Pacific region will be prominent.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Economics, Military Affairs, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Canada, Asia, and North America
161. Tackling Asis's Greatest Challenges
- Author:
- Harry J Kazianis
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- In 2012, with the cooperation and support of the Center for Global Progress, scholars and policy practitioners from the United States, Vietnam, and Japan began development of a trilateral dialogue. The nations were represented by the Center for the National Interest in the United States, the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, and the Research Institute for Peace and Security in Japan.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Asia
162. Threat Perceptions and Drivers of Change in Nuclear Security Around the World: Results of a Survey
- Author:
- Matthew Bunn and Eben Harrell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Leaders at the 2010 nuclear security summit agreed on the goal of securing all vulnerable nuclear material in four years. This goal implied that many countries would change their nuclear security policies. But the factors that drive changes in nuclear security policies, and that constrain those changes, are not well understood. Matthew Bunn and Eben Harrell conducted a survey of selected nuclear security experts in countries with nuclear weapons, highly enriched uranium (HEU), or separated plutonium, to explore this issue. The survey included: perceptions of which threats are credible; approaches to nuclear security based on a design basis threat (DBT); changes in nuclear security policy in the last 15 years; factors causing and constraining changes in nuclear security policy; and policy on how much information to release about nuclear security. This paper describes the survey, its results, and implications for next steps to strengthen global nuclear security.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United Nations
163. Improving the US-GCC Security Partnership: Planning for the Future
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Over the years since the formation of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the Southern Gulf states and the US have developed a de facto strategic partnership based on a common need to deter and defend against any threat from Iran, deal with regional instability in countries like Iraq and Yemen, counter the threat of terrorism and extremism, and deal with the other threats to the flow of Gulf petroleum exports.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, and North America
164. The Challenges to Transition in Afghanistan: 2014-2015
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Creating political unity and reasons to be loyal to government. Creating a new structure of governance and balance between factions. Effective revenue collection, budget planning and expenditure, and limits to corruption. Fully replacing NATO/ISAF with the ANSF and "layered defense". Creating a new structure of security forces, advisors, and aid funds, to include addressing the presence of US and other nations' personnel. Acting on the Tokyo Conference: Creating effective flow and use of aid, economic reform, and limits to corruption and waste Stabilizing a market economy driven by military spending and moving towards development: Brain drain and capital flight. Coping with weather and other challenges to agricultural structure and with pressures to increase the narco - economy. Dealing with neighbors: Pakistan, I ran, Central Asian nations, India, China, and Russia.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Military Strategy, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, China, South Asia, India, and North America
165. Terminating Security Council Sanctions
- Author:
- Kristen E. Boon
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- This report assesses the United Nations Security Council's current approach to drawing down sanctions in intrastate war situations. After examining broader questions surrounding the UN's authority to impose sanctions and the corresponding limits on these powers, this report assesses criteria used by the council to terminate sanctions. It observes that multilateral sanctions under the UN Security Council tend to last substantially longer than sanctions by regional organizations, such as the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS); and it argues that short sanctions periods are preferable to long sanctions periods.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United Nations
166. Adapting for the Global Diplomatic Arena: A Report of the Aspen Institute Dialogue on Diplomacy and Technology
- Author:
- Shanthi Kalathil
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- The revolution will not only be televised, it will be instantly transmitted. When dictators fall, the world watches in real time; when complex negotiations take place, global public opinion has a seat at the table; and in crisis situations, immediately is not soon enough. Widespread access to information and communication technology (ICT) has permanently changed the face of international relations. In particular, it has transformed the conceptualization and practice of diplomacy. As non-state actors become increasingly empowered, diplomacy has come to encompass not only state-state relations, but various forms of state- citizen and citizen-citizen relations as well, all enacted in full view of the public. Diplomatic actors, institutions and processes are in the process of adapting-some faster than others-to these new realities.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Southeast Asia
167. Fueling a New Order? The New Geopolitical and Security Consequences of Energy
- Author:
- Bruce Jones, David Steven, and Emily O'Brien
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- On December 16, 2013, Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud, Saudi Arabia's powerful former intelligence chief, gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal. He was speaking out after a turbulent four months in Middle East and Persian Gulf diplomacy, diplomacy that culminated in an interim nuclear deal between Iran and the major powers. Prince Turki, long a close friend to the United States, used the interview to blast American policy. He was critical of U.S. strategy in the region as a whole, but particularly vehement about leaving Saudi Arabia out of the loop as the United States engaged in secret bilateral diplomacy with Iran. "How can you build trust when you keep secrets from what are supposed to be your closest allies?" he fumed.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Asia
168. Northeast Asia's Turbulent Triangle: Korea-China-Japan Relations
- Author:
- Malcolm Cook
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Northeast Asia is one of the most important crucibles of global economic and strategic change, and it is far from a stable one. The modern histories of China, Japan and South Korea were forged by Japan's colonisation of China and Korea and the Korean War that divided the peninsula and saw China on the side of North Korea and Japan on the side of South Korea. This recent history has left the bilateral relations on each side of this turbulent triangle strained by a lack of trust, popular antipathy and unresolved territorial disputes. As noted in the project's Beijing workshop, the stalled trilateral free trade agreement negotiations between the three Northeast Asian neighbours, launched with great hope in 1997, have been the victim of this turbulence and strain.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and North America
169. The Big Break: The Conservative Transformation of Canada's Foreign Policy
- Author:
- John Ibbitson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The foreign policy of the Harper government has been called ideologically conservative, incoherent, a betrayal of a proud foreign policy tradition, and worse. The critics have a point, in that the Conservative view of Canada in the world represents a transformation from all that has gone before. But that transformation — that “big break” — disrupts an approach to foreign policy that was already under great stress. In fact, the arc of Canadian foreign policy from the end of World War II to the present can be divided into four periods: a period of Laurentian coherence, when the political, academic, bureaucratic and media elites living in the cities encompassed by the St. Lawrence River watershed formulated and implemented Canada's postwar approach to engaging the world; Laurentian incoherence, when that approach began to unravel due to both internal and external pressures; Conservative incoherence, when the Harper government tried — but often failed — to impose its own approach; and Conservative coherence, in which the Harper government has become increasingly sure-footed in its handling of diplomatic issues. Future governments may seek to reverse this Conservative reversal of the Laurentian approach, but given the breadth and depth of the Conservative coalition, at least some of the big break is likely endure.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
170. Small States at the United Nations: Diverse Perspectives, Shared Opportunities
- Author:
- Andrea Ó Súilleabháin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Small states make up the majority of United Nations member states, and they are among the strongest advocates for the rules-based multilateral system. Yet many small states face challenges in advancing their interests at the UN. Drawing on the insights and ideas of 54 small-state UN missions, this report explores the strengths and challenges of small-state diplomacy at the UN. While small states have made significant contributions to policy development and debates at the UN, the author finds that small states share key challenges to participating effectively in diplomacy and policymaking at the UN-particularly in terms of asymmetric access to information, capacity constraints, and structural barriers in the UN system. The report identifies opportunities for strategic cooperation among small states and offers practical recommendations for addressing their shared challenges. These include, for example, streamlining the UN's information delivery processes, enhancing the accessibility of Secretariat personnel, and developing training and guidance for mission personnel on technical and procedural matters at the UN.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United Nations
171. China and Socialist Countries: Role Change and Role Continuity
- Author:
- Nele Noesselt
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses changes in China's relations with socialist countries. It uses Chinese academic publications to add an insideâ?out perspective to the interpretation of Chinese foreign policy and outlines key socioâ?cognitive determinants of China's foreign behaviour. The paper starts with an overview of role theory, integrating Chinese scholars' writings on images of ego and alter to identify the main patterns and frames of China's selfproclaimed national role(s). It argues that China's actor identity comprises various, partly contradictory role conceptions. National roles derived from China's internal structures and its historical past lead to continuity in Chinese foreign policy, while the 'new' roles resultant from China's rise to global powerhood require it to adapt its foreign policy principles. The paper then examines four bilateral relationships – between China and Cuba, North Korea, the Soviet Union/Russia, and Vietnam – and discusses their development over time in light of China's reformulation of its 'socialist' role conception.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Socialism/Marxism
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
172. Building Networks of Diplomatic Cooperation
- Author:
- Daniel F. Runde and Amasia Zargarian
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States currently maintains formal diplomatic relations with all but five United Nations member-states. In addition to these five countries, there are states—including Venezuela—with which U.S. relations continue to be strained. In most such relationships, cooperation across societies is challenging, hampered by seemingly insurmountable political differences between governments. When official cooperation at the higher levels of government proves infeasible, it is often in the interest of both countries to pursue alternative, more informal approaches, sometimes referred to as "Track II diplomacy." Such forms of diplomacy allow for exchanges of people and ideas to build confidence between the two sides. Ideally, the modest gains in trust from Track II diplomacy will translate into a broader opening for political rapprochement.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Venezuela
173. The Struggle for the Levant: Geopolitical Battles and the Quest for Stability
- Author:
- Aram Nerguizian
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States and its allies compete with Iran in a steadily more unsettled and uncertain Levant. The political upheavals in the Middle East, economic and demographic pressures, sectarian struggles and extremism, ethnic and tribal conflicts and tensions all combine to produce complex patterns of competition.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and Syria
174. Opportunities in the Development of Pakistan's Private Sector
- Author:
- Sadika Hameed
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Relations between the United States and Pakistan have begun to improve after several years of heightened tensions. Yet many challenges remain. Among them is how to improve Pakistan's economy. Its economic crisis is one of the main sources of its internal tensions, but multiple opportunities exist to improve its economic performance. The policy debate in the United States, however, is still dominated by a focus on terrorism and extremism. While Pakistan's stability is a natural concern for the United States, focusing primarily on security issues limits the options for improving stability.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and United States
175. The reverse home market effect in exports: A cross-country study of the extensive margin of exports
- Author:
- Medin Hege
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This paper presents a simple new trade theory model with results that contradict those from standard model. A home market effect in domestic sales of manufactured goods is found to co-exist with a reversed home market effect in exports of manufactured goods. In consequence, for a small country the number of manufacturing firms that sell in the domestic market is lower than proportional whereas the number of exporters is higher than proportional to country size. The proportion of firms that export, decreases with relative size of the home market. Empirical support for the latter prediction is found in a cross-sectional dataset on firm level exports for 116 countries.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
176. Hezbollah in Syria
- Author:
- Marisa Sullivan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Hezbollah's deepening involvement in Syria is one of the most important factors of the conflict in 2013 and 2014. Since the beginning of 2013, Hezbollah fighters have operated openly and in significant numbers across the border alongside their Syrian and Iraqi counterparts. They have enabled the regime to regain control of rebel-held areas in central Syria and have improved the effectiveness of pro-regime forces. The impact of Hezbollah's involvement in Syria has been felt not just on the battlefield, where the regime now has momentum in many areas, but also in Lebanon where growing sectarian tensions have undermined security and stability.
- Topic:
- International Relations, War, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Lebanon and Syria
177. Iraq's 2014 National Elections
- Author:
- Ahmed Ali
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Iraq's 2014 national elections are taking place at a difficult time. The country is at a crossroads, presented with the possibility of widely different futures. Deteriorating security conditions frame political thought in ways that harken back to Iraq's first national elections in 2005. The Iraqi state does not hold control of territory in some of Iraq's key political provinces, such as Anbar, Ninewa, and Diyala. The disenfranchisement of Iraq's Arab Sunnis; the rising threat of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS); and the activation of Ba'athist groups collectively discourage electoral participation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Ninewa, Anbar, and Diyala
178. Using Special Envoys In High-Stakes Conflict Diplomacy
- Author:
- Princeton N. Lyman and Robert M. Beecroft
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Special envoys or representatives (SE/SRs) have been used by nearly every administration to address high-stakes conflicts. They are most useful when a conflict situation is of major importance to the United States, has strong regional as well as bilateral aspects, and exceeds the State Department's capacity to address it. To be effective, an SE/SR must be recognizably empowered by the president and the secretary of state, have clear mandates, and enjoy a degree of latitude beyond normal bureaucratic restrictions. While the secretary of state needs to be actively engaged in the conflict resolution process, the envoy should be sufficiently empowered to ensure that the secretary's interventions are strategic. Chemistry matters: in minimizing tensions between the SE/SR and the relevant State Department regional bureau and with ambassadors in the field, in overcoming State- White House rivalries over policy control, and in mobilizing support of allies. There are no “cookie cutter” solutions to overlapping responsibilities and the envoy's need for staff and resources; rather, mutual respect and flexibility are key. Senior State Department officials have the required skills for assignments as SE/SRs. Enhancing the department's resources and reinforcing the ranks of senior department posi¬tions would increase such appointments and the department's capacity to support them.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States
179. Accountability, Transparency, Participation, and Inclusion: A New Development Consensus?
- Author:
- Thomas Carothers and Saskia Brechenmacher
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Four key principles—accountability, transparency, participation, and inclusion—have in recent years become nearly universal features of the policy statements and programs of international development organizations. Yet this apparently widespread new consensus is deceptive: behind the ringing declarations lie fundamental fissures over the value and application of these concepts. Understanding and addressing these divisions is crucial to ensuring that the four principles become fully embedded in international development work.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, International Cooperation, and Foreign Aid
180. Iran and Bahrain: Crying Wolf, or Wolf at the Door?
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Bahraini government will need to distinguish better between protestors and terrorists if it wants Washington and other foreign partners to believe its claims of Iranian support for local militants. On May 5, in what has become an increasingly typical event in Bahrain, several individuals threw Molotov cocktails at a police post in a Shiite village, damaging storefronts but causing no casualties. Such incidents have intensified over the past few months in villages surrounding the capital, Manama -- in March, three police officers were killed by a bombing in al-Daih; last month, an explosion wounded another officer in the same village; days later, a police car was firebombed in Hamad Town.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Political Violence, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Bahrain
181. Legality in Cyberspace: An Adversary View
- Author:
- Andrew Monaghan and Keir Giles
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The United States and its allies are in general agreement on the legal status of conflict in cyberspace. Although key principles remain unresolved, such as what precisely constitutes an armed attack or use of force in cyberspace, overall there is a broad legal consensus among Euro-Atlantic nations that existing international law and international commitments are sufficient to regulate cyber conflict.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and North America
182. Tipping the Scale: An Analysis of Global Swing States in the Internet Governance Debate
- Author:
- Tim Maurer and Robert Morgus
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- In December 2012, numerous news outlets reported on the debate over Internet governance that took place at the World Conference on International Telecommunications (WCIT) in Dubai. It was the first time in nearly a decade that the topic attracted major international media attention. The conference ended in a diplomatic éclat with 89 states signing the new International Telecommunications Regulations (ITRs) and 55 publicly opposing them.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Arabia
183. America in Southeast Asia before the 'Pivot': The 'Battle of Quallah Battoo' in 1832
- Author:
- Farish A. Noor
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Today, there is much talk about the 'American pivot' back to Southeast Asia, and the role that America continues to play in terms of the geo-strategic relations between the countries in the region. That America has been a player in Southeast Asian affairs is well-known, as America's presence in countries like Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam has been well documented since the Cold War. However, there has been less scholarship devoted to America's role in Southeast Asia prior to the 20th century, lending the impression that the United States is a latecomer as far as Southeast Asian affairs is concerned.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Southeast Asia
184. Shadow Wars of Weapons Acquisition: Arms Denial and its Strategic Implications
- Author:
- Sarit Markovich and Oren Setter
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In trying to prevent adversaries from acquiring new military capabilities, countries often employ strategies of arms denial; e.g., "unilateral diplomacy," supply chain interdiction, covert sabotage and targeted military strikes. We posit that the prevalence of this approach gives rise to strategic effects that affect all players' behavior. We explore this phenomenon using a game-theoretic model of weapons acquisition and denial. Our model shows that denial could indeed be the equilibrium result of such strategic interactions, and provides the conditions under which the threat of denial is sufficient to cause adversaries to refrain from acquisition altogether. We further identify strategic levers that actors can use to improve their position in this interaction. The results of the model are illustrated using real-world examples and are then used to assess the implications of arms denial on arms races and regional stability.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and Military Strategy
185. US-Cuba: A New Public Survey Supports Policy Change
- Author:
- Jason Marczak and Peter Schechter
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Why is now the right moment to commission a poll on the US public's views toward Cuba and US-Cuba relations? Why is a new, nonpartisan Latin America center reaching out to grab the third rail of Latin American foreign policy in the United States? Both good questions. Sometimes in foreign policy, structural impediments or stark policy differences will stymie progress in a certain area. Relations with China could not proceed until the United States recognized a “one China” policy that forever downgraded US relations with Taiwan. An activist foreign policy with Africa was impossible until the United States denounced apartheid.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, China, Cuba, and Latin America
186. Regime Change, Democracy, and Growth
- Author:
- Caroline Freund and Mélise Jaud
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The empirical literature on the relationship between democracy and growth has yielded conflicting results. Cross-country studies have failed to identify a significant impact of democracy on growth, while within-country studies have found a strong positive effect of the transition to democracy on growth. We reconcile the conflicting evidence by showing that the positive effect of democratic transitions results from regime change as opposed to democratization. We identify over 100 transitions in the last half-century with various outcomes: to and from democracy, some partial, and some failed. The variety of experiences allows us to compare the growth outcome of democratic transitions with that of other transitions rather than with a no-transition counterfactual. Conditioning on regime change filters out selection effects and shows that transition to democracy yields no growth dividend compared to other types of regime change. We also show that countries that democratize slowly do not gain from regime change. These results suggest that the growth dividend from political transition results from swift regime change rather than from democratization.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Brazil
187. Recent Trends in the South China Sea and U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Gregory B. Poling
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Tensions in the South China Sea have continued to build over the last year, with the Philippines submitting its evidence against Chinese claims to an arbitration tribunal, Beijing parking an oil rig in waters claimed by Vietnam, and Malaysia growing increasingly anxious about Chinese displays of sovereignty at the disputed James Shoal. These and other developments underscore just how critical managing tensions in the South China Sea are, for the region and for the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Malaysia, Beijing, and Asia
188. Trade policy issues in the Wider Europe - that led to war and not yet to peace
- Author:
- Michael Emerson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This paper looks at the trade policy landscape of the EU and the wider Europe, with a focus on issues arising from the signature on 27 June 2014 of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) between the EU and three East European countries (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine), and actual or prospective issues relating to the customs union of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan (BRK), and the Eurasian Economic Union whose founding treaty was signed on 29 May 2014. While the contrived collision between these projects has tragically induced Russia to break all the established international security norms by waging war against Ukraine , the present paper deals essentially with trade policy issues . The huge expansion of intercontinental free trade area negotiation s currently underway, in which the EU is an active participant alongside much of the Americas and Asia, stands in contrast with Russia's choice to restrict itself to the Eurasian Economic Union, which is only a marginal extension of its own economy. Alone among the major economies in the world, Russia does not seek to integrate economically with any major economic bloc, which should be a matter of serious concern for Moscow. Within the wider Europe, the EU's DCFTAs with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are a major new development, but Russia now threatens trade sanctions against Ukraine in particular, the economic case for which seems unfounded and whose unilateral application would also impair the customs union. The Belarus-Russia-Kazakhstan customs union itself poses several issues of compatibility with the rules of the WTO, which in turn are viewed by the EU as an impediment to discussing possible free trade scenarios with the customs union, although currently there are far more fundamental political impediments to any consideration of such ideas. Nonetheless this paper looks at various long-term scenarios, if only as a reminder that there could be much better alternatives to the present context of conflict around Ukraine.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan
189. Making Sense of the "International Community"
- Author:
- Tod Lindberg
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Discourse on global affairs often refers to the international community. Statesmen sometimes exhort it, as in "the international community must act"; they sometimes lament its passivity, as in "the international community has done nothing"; and sometimes they speak in its name, as in "the international community condemns this outrage."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Organization, and Governance
190. Building Networks of Diplomatic Cooperation: Opportunities for U.S.-Venezuela Science Cooperation
- Author:
- Daniel F. Runde and Amasia Zargarian
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States currently maintains formal diplomatic relations with all but five United Nations member-states. In addition to these five countries, there are states—including Venezuela—with which U.S. relations continue to be strained. In most such relationships, cooperation across societies is challenging, hampered by seemingly insurmountable political differences between governments. When official cooperation at the higher levels of government proves infeasible, it is often in the interest of both countries to pursue alternative, more informal approaches, sometimes referred to as "Track II diplomacy" Such forms of diplomacy allow for exchanges of people and ideas to build confidence between the two sides. Ideally, the modest gains in trust from Track II diplomacy will translate into a broader opening for political rapprochement.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, South America, and Venezuela
191. Oil Prices and Interstate Conflict Behavior
- Author:
- Cullen S. Hendrix
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Anecdotal evidence suggests high oil prices embolden leaders in oil-rich states to pursue more aggressive foreign policies. This article tests the conjecture in a sample of 153 countries for the time period 1947–2001. It finds strong evidence of a contingent effect of oil prices on interstate disputes, with high oil prices associated with significant increases in dispute behavior among oil-exporting states, while having either a negative or null effect on dispute behavior in nonexporting states.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Oil, and History
192. Rethinking Afghan Local Governance Aid After Transition
- Author:
- Frances Z. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The conclusion of the U.S.-led "surge" of 2009 onward and the closure of provincial recon¬struction teams and other local civil-military installations have affected how aid is delivered in Afghanistan's more remote and contested areas. The time is ripe for a recalibration of donor approaches to local governance and development in areas previously targeted by the surge. Specifically, foreign stakeholders should reexamine three central principles of their previous subnational governance strategy. First, donors should revise their conception of assisting service delivery from the previous approach, which often emphasized providing maximal inputs in a fragmented way, to a more restrained vision that stresses predictability and reliability and acknowledges the interlinked nature of politics, justice, and sectoral services in the eyes of the local population. Second, donors should reframe their goal of establishing linkages between the Afghan govern¬ment and population by acknowledging that the main obstacles to improving center-periph¬ery communication and execution are often political and structural rather than technical. Third, donors should revise the way they define, discuss, and measure local governance prog¬ress in contested areas, away from favoring snapshots of inputs and perceptions and toward capturing longer-term changes on the ground in processes, structures, and incentives. The coming political and development aid transition provides an overdue opportunity for Afghan governance priorities to come to the fore. At the same time, the ever growing chasm between Kabul's deliberations on the one hand and local governance as experienced in more remote, insurgency-wracked areas on the other presents renewed risks. In the short term, donors let the air out of the aid bubble carefully. In the long term, resolving Afghanistan's local governance challenges continues to demand sustained commitment and systematic execution.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
193. The Ontological (In)security of Similarity: Wahhabism versus Islamism in Saudi Foreign Policy
- Author:
- May Darwich
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- It has long been argued that identity matters in international relations. Yet, how identity impacts enmity and conflict among states remains the subject of debate. The existing literature asserts that differences in identity can be a source of conflict, whereas convergence and similarity lead to cooperation. Nevertheless, empirical evidence from the Middle East has long defied this hypothesis. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which prides itself on being an Islamic model and claims Islamic leadership, has opposed the rise to power of Islamist movements in the Middle East. To address this paradox, this article builds on the growing literature on ontological security to propose a theoretical framework explaining how similarity can generate anxiety and identity risks. This framework, I argue, moves beyond traditional regime‐security approaches to reveal that security is not only physical but also ontological. I then illustrate the argument through a comparison of Saudi identity risks in the wake of the Iranian revolution (1979) and the ascendance of the Muslim Brotherhood to power in Egypt (2012). Ultimately, these cases provide intriguing insights into foreign policy behaviour during critical situations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia
194. Thomas Kuhn and international relations theory: Realism in 'crisis'
- Author:
- Peter Van Ness
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Australian National University Department of International Relations
- Abstract:
- In 2012, the University of Chicago Press published a special fiftieth anniversary edition of Thomas Kuhn?s influential book, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Kuhn, who died of lung cancer in 1996, was a physicist trained at Harvard University and is best known for his work on the history and philosophy of science. His interpretation of the evolution of science and the concept of "paradigm change? have had a major impact on our understanding of intellectual life, both in the physical sciences and in the social sciences. This paper briefly reviews Kuhn?s approach, and then applies it to an analysis of the current state of International Relations theory in a critique of Realism. My argument is that Realism, as what Kuhn would call "normal science? in International Relations theory, is in crisis because of its inability to explain a growing number of anomalies, which in turn can be better explained by a different paradigm, Cooperative Security.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, International Cooperation, Politics, Science and Technology, Political Theory, and History
- Political Geography:
- United States and United Nations
195. Russia and East Asia in the Context of the Ukrainian Crisis: "No" to Sanctions, "yes" to a New World Order
- Author:
- V. Petrovsky
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The system of international relations and the world order are being “tested by Ukraine,” the situation in which Russia’s relations with East Asia are not an exception but a confirmation of the process and an illustration of it. The U.S. Administration resolved to isolate Russia from the rest of the world urged the EU, the rest of the continent and also the East Asian and APR countries to introduce anti-Russian sanctions. In July 2014, at the height of the scandal around the Malaysian “Boeing” shot down over Eastern Ukraine, Peter Harrell, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Counter Threat Finance and Sanctions, travelled far and wide across the region to persuade top officials and leaders of the business communities to side with the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, East Asia, and United States of America
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