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Begin New Search Topic Development Content Type Working Paper Publication Year within 10 Years

201. BRICS and Mortar: New Architecture in Education

Author:
Kishore Singh
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:
In the beginning of the new century and the millennium, Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and China came to be reckoned as the world’s fastest growing economies. Later, these were joined by South Africa, leading to the emergence of BRICS as a political coalition of five countries. The year 2009 was a landmark in this historic development. In that year, the first BRICS Summit was held in Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation. The BRICS summits held annually since then have become an important political platform for the collective voice of BRICS countries in the form of BRICS Declarations. Education is one of the most critical areas addressed in successive BRICS summits. Centrality of education in people’s lives and its catalytic role for human development is widely recognised in today’s world. So it was inevitable that the BRICS countries would come together and create a common plat-forum on education as well. The first meeting of BRICS Education Ministers was held in November 2013 on the margins of the UNESCO General Conference. Since then, the BRICS Education Ministers have been meeting annually and issuing a separate declaration in tandem with the declaration issued at the summits.
Topic:
Development, Education, International Cooperation, and BRICS
Political Geography:
Russia, China, South Asia, India, South Africa, and Brazil

202. Understanding the First and Second Digital Divides in Rural Bangladesh

Author:
Muhammad Shahadat, Hossain Siddiquee, and Saiful Md. Islam
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:
Differences in individuals’ access to internet infrastructure refer to the first-level digital divide, whereas differences in an individual’s online skills and internet usage refer to the second-level digital divide. Bangladesh is a country with a clear-cut digital divide between rural and urban areas, which is primarily caused by income and wealth inequalities. But the uneven distribution of information and communications technologies (ICTs) between rural and urban areas contributes to the inequality in economic and social development. Therefore, the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) is taking initiatives to address the rural-urban divide in socio-economic development through the elimination of rural-urban disparities in the first- and second-level digital divides; this has become a key issue, as well as a major challenge for policymakers, practitioners, and academicians. The present research study uses the theory of digital divide stemming from a comparative phenomenon of different forms of inequalities and aims to generate meaningful insights about the spectrum of individual internet access and online skills (i.e. the first- and second-level digital divides) in the setting of rural Bangladesh, where there is a dearth of data as well as a research gap.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Internet, and Rural
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

203. COVID-19’s Impact on Bangladesh Economy

Author:
Muhammad Shahadat, Hossain Siddiquee, and Avinno Faruk
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:
This BIGD study examines the impact of COVID-19’s impact on the major economic and financial indicators of the economy of Bangladesh, including production, wages, price levels, advances, bills, investments, remittances and foreign trade, using the secondary data published by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh Bank (BB), and the Ministry of Finance (MoF). In addition to the recent impact of the global economic meltdown, Bangladesh also experienced severe demand contraction in the local economy; this exacerbated the overall economic crisis of the country. Considering the duration and severity of COVID-19, we examine its impact on major economic and financial indicators of the Bangladesh economy and recommended policy responses for recovery, based on the analysis. Both domestic and international demands declined due to the outbreak and subsequent lockdown, and, thus, producers responded by lowering output to minimize the loss, especially in the manufacturing sectors. Findings reveal that nominal Wage Rate Index (WRI) in the industry and service sectors fell in recent times, which now appear to be recovering. The national inflation rate has not been affected much based on point-to-point changes. Food inflation fell in May 2020 and stood at 5.09 percent, but it appears to have risen recently. Non-food inflation rates have been falling over the last six months from April-September 2020. Prudent measures should include constant monitoring and adapting to the latest developments in major trading partners and host countries to mitigate the economic losses caused. Bank credit would play a key role in the ongoing and upcoming recovery process, as the government has opted for a credit-led stimulus package. However, as the virus is yet to be contained and an effective vaccine for it is yet to be made available in Bangladesh everywhere and to everyone, its economic repercussions are likely to continue in the foreseeable future.
Topic:
Development, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

204. Qualitative Exploration The End User Context of BCC Materials on COVID-19 Guidelines and Handwashing

Author:
Tanvir Shatil, Sonia Afrin, Swagatam Saha, Dipanwita Ghosh, and Md. Kamruzzaman
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:
As a partner of the “Hygiene and Behaviour Change Coalition (HBCC),” BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) initiated a rapid formative research to identify gaps in people’s existing hygiene knowledge and practice, as well as opportunities for intervention. In doing so, the study aimed to help BRAC design and develop new Behavioral Change and Communication (BCC) materials that can effectively address people’s particular hygiene behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic. The two specific objectives of this study included investigating how users perceive the awareness messages and translate them into their everyday behaviour, and finding out the facilitating factors and the barriers they face in following Coronavirus-related public health and social guidelines. We selected 30 different respondents from Dhaka and Khulna and conducted in-depth telephone interviews, online focus group discussions (FGDs) through video conferencing, and shadow and visual content observation (e.g. photographs and videos). It was revealed that respondents have different levels of knowledge and practices including correct, partially correct and misconception on three domains: hand washing, mask use and social distancing. The study also revealed the personal and structural barriers to comply with the guidelines.
Topic:
Development, COVID-19, and Hygiene
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

205. The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Small and Medium Enterprises in Bangladesh

Author:
Asadul Islam, Atiya Rahman, and Rafia Nisat
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:
Like other economic players, the novel pandemic severely hit small businesses—the larger source of growth and employment but also the most vulnerable sector—by disrupting national and international business networks, supply chain, and demand. To understand the evolving state of small enterprises during pre, par, and post-lockdown periods, BIGD in collaboration with Monash University, Australia conducted a survey on small enterprises, mostly light-engineering firms, and young workers across 18 districts in Bangladesh. The study finds that lockdown measures caused the majority of small enterprises to shut down, and during the early period of relaxing the lockdown, one-third of the enterprises were operating at limited capacity. Demand drop and the burden of fixed costs to run the businesses were the prominent reasons behind the drastic fall in profit. As a result, workers were losing jobs and the gender gap was widening, because female labour-intensive work (i.e. beauty parlour, tailoring) was affected harder. Other findings of concern include the emerging vulnerabilities for the enterprises with lower endowment and poor access to government stimulus packages and other financial support. The study emphasises on the importance of concrete targeting criteria and support delivery platforms to assist more vulnerable enterprises. Finally, it highlights that the enterprises that received BRAC’s intensive training on occupational health and safety (OHS), along with business training and financial linkages, made double profit compared to their counterparts. However, the absolute amount of profit was substantially lower for both groups, compared to their pre-COVID profit, indicating the importance of scaling up such intensive training to create more resilient enterprises in such crises.
Topic:
Development, Employment, Economy, Business, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

206. Infrastructure in a Changing World: Trends and Challenges

Author:
Carlo Secchi and Alberto Belladonna
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In a world on the brink of a global recession caused by COVID-19, the Infrastructure efforts of today and tomorrow are more crucial than ever. They are an indispensable countercyclical tool to mitigate the negative effects of the economic paralysis. But they also constitute a pivotal component of a country’s development and competitiveness in the long term. That is why infrastructure will continue to play a critical role even when the pandemic crisis has been tamed. Rapid demographic growth, increasing urbanization, especially in developing countries, coupled with the mounting climate change are challenges that won’t disappear with the virus. These significant challenges will come with equally difficult questions. How to cope with these long-term trends? How to finance the increasing need of infrastructure? Which major international actors will take the lead? And finally, what role will technology play in shaping the future of infrastructure efforts?
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Strategic Competition, COVID-19, and Recession
Political Geography:
Global Focus

207. Rural Development Hubs: Strengthening America’s Rural Innovation Infrastructure

Author:
Community Strategies Group
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
This report focuses on the role — and aggregates the wisdom — of a specific set of intermediaries that are doing development differently in rural America. We have chosen to call them Rural Development Hubs — or Hubs for short. We focus here on Rural Development Hubs because they are main players advancing an asset-based, wealth-building, approach to rural community and economic development in this country.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Rural, Economic Development, Community, and Farming
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

208. Supporting Students to be Independent Learners: State and District Actions for the Pandemic Era

Author:
Education and Society Program
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
In May 2020, the Aspen Institute Education & Society Program shared ten recommended state actions for Fostering Connectedness in the Pandemic Era that were developed with a diverse group of education leaders. The pandemic and resulting closure of school buildings have revealed the deep inequities that already existed in many schools, and connectedness is one of those gaps. Data from school climate surveys demonstrates that students of color, English-learners, and students from low-income families do not feel safe at school, in part because they do not have the kind of caring, trusted relationships that create belonging – and in part because they do not feel challenged with meaningful, rigorous work. With this in mind, and as a complement to the initial recommendations to advance social, emotional, and academic development, we turned to another diverse set of leaders for actionable insights focused on culturally and linguistically responsive education.
Topic:
Development, Education, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

209. China and COVID-19: a shock to its economy, a metaphor for its development

Author:
George Magnus
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
The Chinese government’s draconian actions to control the coronavirus seem to be producing a remarkable economic contraction. As so many are unable to attend or resume work at the moment, the government’s palliative economic measures may gain little traction. Although the demand shock will eventually fade, other longer-term issues will surely endure. The supply shock will be less obvious but more corrosive. The government’s questionable conduct in managing the public health crisis has unveiled significant features about governance in Xi’s China that can be mapped on to China’s development. While this crisis is the biggest challenge Xi has faced, there is little doubt that he will survive it, champion the party’s role in the nation’s rescue, and feel emboldened to continue with his authoritarian governance. Yet it is this that, in the long run, will prove incompatible with China’s economic development ambitions.
Topic:
Development, Economy, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
China and Asia

210. An Analysis of the use of Chemical Pesticides and their Impact on Yields, Farmer Income and Agricultural Sustainability: The Case for Smallholder Farmers in Ethiopia

Author:
Aparna Rao and Risa Morimoto
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
In economic theory, the agricultural sector plays an undisputed role in growth, development and poverty reduction in a country. The sector is pivotal for a vast majority of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), given the large number of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. With the constraints on land expansion and the dual threat of climate change and an ever increasing population, agricultural productivity has become a key matter of concern in agricultural economics. Given this, a vast majority of literature focuses on improving productivity to meet food demand at any cost. A large percentage of it is focused on the use of pesticides, pre-harvest, to eradicate pests and diseases that lead to losses in the produce. As a result, there has been a significant increase in global pesticide usage over the last few years.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, Poverty, Economic Theory, Sustainability, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

211. Regional Developmentalism in West Africa: The Case for Commodity-Based Industrialisation through Regional Cooperation in the Cocoa-Chocolate Sector

Author:
Jonathan Bashi Rudahindwa and Sophie van Huellen
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Regional integration occupies a prominent place in the economic policies of most Sub- Saharan African countries. However, despite different waves of initiatives across the African continent, the majority of African regional schemes have not managed to achieve their ambitious goal of promoting sustainable development through trade integration in Africa. In light of this observation, using the West African cocoa- chocolate sector as a case study, we propose the regional developmentalism paradigm as an alternative approach to regionalism in Africa, placing a particular emphasis on the use of regional and sub-regional approaches to development. Instead of full-fledged trade liberalisation and indiscriminate economic integration, the regional developmentalism paradigm advocates for state-led trade facilitation, regulatory convergence and capacity-building through the adoption of policies directed at strategic sectors. We evaluate the potential of the regional developmentalism paradigm to promote economic transformation and commodity-based industrialisation against the shortcomings of the current regional integration approach embodied in the institutional framework of ECOWAS.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Commodities, Regionalism, and Industrialization
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

212. Financialisation in Developing Countries: Approaches, Concepts, and Metrics

Author:
Costas Lapavitsas and Aylin Soydan
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Financialisation in developing countries has been extensively researched but its characteristic features and its relationship to developed countries remain unclear. Drawing on a review of the literature, this paper shows, first, that it should be distinguished from financial liberalisation and globalisation. Two fundamental theoretical approaches are subsequently considered, which establish its derivative character relative to developed countries, namely ‘subordinate’ and ‘dependent’ financialisation. The paper then demonstrates its characteristic features by examining the empirical literature, including the use of metrics. Financialisation in developing countries is highly variable and different from that in developed countries regarding the conduct of non-financial enterprises, banks, and households. It is also a source of economic vulnerability.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Finance, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

213. Beyond a Single Model: Explaining Differences in Inequality within Latin America

Author:
Diego Sánchez-Ancochea
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper studies the determinants of income inequality in Latin America over the long run, comparing them with explanations of why the whole region is unequal. I first show how land inequality can account for differences between Latin America and other parts of the world but how it does not explain within-region differences. Using qualitative comparative analysis, I then consider how political institution and actors interact with the economic structure (i.e., type of export specialization) and with the ethnic composition of the population. The paper has several findings. A low indigenous/afrodescendant population is a necessary condition for relatively low inequality. I identify two sufficient-condition paths, both of which include the role of democracy, political equality, and a small indigenous and afrodescendant population. The first path also includes a favorable export specialization, while the second one includes the presence of leftist presidents instead. The paper calls for more explicit comparisons between our analytical models for the whole region and our explanations of between-country differences. Hopefully, the paper can also trigger more research on how the interactions between ethnicity, politics, and the export structure shape inequality in Latin America.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Political Economy, Poverty, Race, Social Movement, Democracy, Inequality, and Ethnicity
Political Geography:
Latin America

214. Why Do People Migrate Irregularly? Evidence From a Lab-in-the-Field Experiment in West Africa

Author:
Tijan L. Bah and Catia Batista
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Irregular migration to Europe by sea, though risky, remains one of the most popular migration options for many sub-Saharan Africans. This study examines the determinants of irregular migration from West Africa to Europe. We implemented an incentivized lab-in-thefield experiment in rural Gambia, the country with the region’s highest rate of irregular migration to Europe. Male youths aged 15 to 25 were given hypothetical scenarios regarding the probability of dying en route to Europe and of gaining legal residence status after successful arrival. According to the data we collected, potential migrants overestimate both the risk of dying en route to Europe and the probability of obtaining legal residency status. In this context, our experimental results show that providing potential migrants with official numbers on the probability of getting a legal residence permit decreases their likelihood of migration by 2.88 percentage points (pp), while information on the death risk of migrating increases their likelihood of migration by 2.29 pp—although the official numbers should be regarded as a lower bound to actual mortality. Follow-up data collected one year after the experiment show that the migration decisions reported in the lab experiment correlate well with actual migration decisions and intentions. Overall, our study indicates that the migration decisions of potential migrants are likely to respond to relevant information.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Migration, Internet, Economic Growth, Borders, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Gambia

215. Reporte de Recomendaciones de Política: Hacia un Loreto más próspero

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann and Miguel Angel Santos
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Loreto es un lugar de contrastes. Es el departamento más grande del Perú, pero se encuentra entre los de menor densidad poblacional. Su capital, Iquitos, está más cerca de los estados fronterizos de Brasil y Colombia que de las capitales de sus regiones vecinas en el Perú - San Martín y Ucayali. Sólo se puede llegar a Iquitos por vía aérea o fluvial, lo que la convierte en una de las mayores ciudades del mundo sin acceso por carretera. Desde la fundación del departamento, la economía de Loreto ha dependido de la explotación de recursos naturales, desde el boom del caucho a finales del siglo XIX y principios del XX hasta la extracción petrolera y explotación de recursos forestales que predomina en nuestros días. Este modelo ha traído consigo daños ambientales significativos y ha producido un patrón de crecimiento lento y volátil, que ha abierto una brecha cada vez más amplia entre la economía de la región y la del resto del país. Entre 1980 y 2018, Loreto creció a una tasa promedio compuesta anual cuatro veces menor a la del resto del Perú. Es decir, mientras el resto del Perú triplicó el tamaño de su economía, la de Loreto creció algo menos que un tercio. En la última década (2008-2018), la región también se ha venido distanciando de sus pares amazónicos en el país (Ucayali, San Martín y Madre de Dios), que han crecido a una tasa promedio anual cinco veces mayor. En este período, el ingreso promedio por habitante en Loreto ha pasado de ser tres cuartas partes del promedio nacional en 2008 a menos de la mitad para 2018. Además del rezago económico - o quizás como consecuencia de él -, Loreto también se ubica entre los departamentos con peores indicadores de desarrollo social, anemia y desnutrición infantil del Perú. En este contexto, el Laboratorio de Crecimiento de la Universidad de Harvard se asoció con la Fundación Gordon and Betty Moore para desarrollar una investigación que proporcionara insumos y recomendaciones de política para acelerar el desarrollo de la región y generar prosperidad de forma sostenible.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
South America and Peru

216. Reporte de Recomendaciones de Política: Hacia un Loreto más próspero

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann and Miguel Angel Santos
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Loreto es un lugar de contrastes. Es el departamento más grande del Perú, pero se encuentra entre los de menor densidad poblacional. Su capital, Iquitos, está más cerca de los estados fronterizos de Brasil y Colombia que de las capitales de sus regiones vecinas en el Perú - San Martín y Ucayali. Sólo se puede llegar a Iquitos por vía aérea o fluvial, lo que la convierte en una de las mayores ciudades del mundo sin acceso por carretera. Desde la fundación del departamento, la economía de Loreto ha dependido de la explotación de recursos naturales, desde el boom del caucho a finales del siglo XIX y principios del XX hasta la extracción petrolera y explotación de recursos forestales que predomina en nuestros días. Este modelo ha traído consigo daños ambientales significativos y ha producido un patrón de crecimiento lento y volátil, que ha abierto una brecha cada vez más amplia entre la economía de la región y la del resto del país. Entre 1980 y 2018, Loreto creció a una tasa promedio compuesta anual cuatro veces menor a la del resto del Perú. Es decir, mientras el resto del Perú triplicó el tamaño de su economía, la de Loreto creció algo menos que un tercio. En la última década (2008-2018), la región también se ha venido distanciando de sus pares amazónicos en el país (Ucayali, San Martín y Madre de Dios), que han crecido a una tasa promedio anual cinco veces mayor. En este período, el ingreso promedio por habitante en Loreto ha pasado de ser tres cuartas partes del promedio nacional en 2008 a menos de la mitad para 2018. Además del rezago económico - o quizás como consecuencia de él -, Loreto también se ubica entre los departamentos con peores indicadores de desarrollo social, anemia y desnutrición infantil del Perú. En este contexto, el Laboratorio de Crecimiento de la Universidad de Harvard se asoció con la Fundación Gordon and Betty Moore para desarrollar una investigación que proporcionara insumos y recomendaciones de política para acelerar el desarrollo de la región y generar prosperidad de forma sostenible.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
South America and Peru

217. La Riqueza Escondida de Loreto: Análisis de Complejidad Económica y Oportunidades de Diversificación Productiva

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann and Miguel Angel Santos
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
El Laboratorio de Crecimiento de la Universidad de Harvard, bajo el auspicio de la Fundación Gordon and Betty Moore, ha desarrollado esta investigación para identificar las capacidades productivas existentes en Loreto y las actividades económicas con potencial para liderar la transformación estructural de su economía. Este reporte forma parte de una investigación más amplia – Transformación estructural y restricciones limitantes a la prosperidad en Loreto, Perú – que busca aportar insumos para el desarrollo de políticas públicas a escala nacional y regional que contribuyan a promover el desarrollo productivo y la prosperidad de la región, tomando en cuenta sus características particulares.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Diversification, and Economic Complexity
Political Geography:
Central America and Mexico

218. Emerging Cities as Independent Engines of Growth: The Case of Buenos Aires

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Douglas Barrios, Daniela Muhaj, and Sehar Noor
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
What does it take for a sub-national unit to become an autonomous engine of growth? This issue is particularly relevant to large cities, as they tend to display larger and more complex know-how agglomerations and may have access to a broader set of policy tools. To approximate an answer to this question, specific to the case of Buenos Aires, Harvard’s Growth Lab engaged in a research project from December 2018 to June 2019, collaborating with the Center for Evidence-based Evaluation of Policies (CEPE) of Universidad Torcuato di Tella, and the Development Unit of the Secretary of Finance of the City of Buenos Aires. Together, we have developed a research agenda that seeks to provide inputs for a policy plan aimed at decoupling Buenos Aires’s growth trajectory from the rest of Argentina’s.
Topic:
Development, Economic Growth, and Cities
Political Geography:
Argentina

219. Horrible Trade-offs in a Pandemic: Lockdowns, Transfers, Fiscal Space, and Compliance

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann and Ulrich Schetter
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
In this paper, we develop a heterogeneous agent general equilibrium framework to analyze optimal joint policies of a lockdown and transfer payments in times of a pandemic. In our model, the effectiveness of a lockdown in mitigating the pandemic depends on endogenous compliance. A more stringent lockdown deepens the recession which implies that poorer parts of society find it harder to subsist. This reduces their compliance with the lockdown, and may cause deprivation of the very poor, giving rise to an excruciating trade-off between saving lives from the pandemic and from deprivation. Lump-sum transfers help mitigate this trade-off. We identify and discuss key trade-offs involved and provide comparative statics for optimal policy. We show that, ceteris paribus, the optimal lockdown is stricter for more severe pandemics and in richer countries. We then consider a government borrowing constraint and show that limited fiscal space lowers the optimal lockdown and welfare, and increases the aggregate death burden during the pandemic. We finally discuss distributional consequences and the political economy of fighting a pandemic.
Topic:
Development, Government, Political Economy, Inequality, Economic Growth, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

220. China’s BRI: The Development-Finance Dimension

Author:
David Gordon and Haoyu Tong
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
This report is the first of two synthesising the findings of a major research workshop convened in Washington DC on 26 June 2019, by The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), as part of its multi-year project on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The IISS commissioned ten papers that addressed development-finance and security issues in the BRI, prepared by leading scholars and policy practitioners. They were joined at the workshop by more than two dozen other experts on China’s international behaviour. This first report focuses on development-finance issues in the BRI; the second will address security issues broadly cast. China’s Belt and Road Initiative is now six years old. Announced by (then) newly ensconced President Xi Jinping, it has since become the centrepiece of Xi’s ambitious drive to make China a more active global leader, and to break free from the cautious approach set out more than 30 years earlier by then-paramount-leader Deng Xiaoping – that China’s strategic approach should be to ‘hide its capacities and bide its time’. At the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 19th Congress in 2017, the BRI was integrated into the party’s charter. Much of the early analytical work on the BRI has focused on questions surrounding China’s motivations – economic or geopolitical. Is Xi’s initiative a response to changing domestic economic circumstances? Or does it signal evidence of China’s intent to build a twentyfirst- century imperium modelled on the post-war United States-led experience, more than on European colonial or earlier Asian empires? The emerging consensus on this question is that it has been a bit of both. At the same time, an often overlooked factor is Xi’s constant need to further consolidate his power inside China, as the economics versus geopolitics debate about the motivations for the BRI gives too little attention to the more purely political dimension. The BRI cannot be separated from Xi’s efforts to cast himself domestically as an exceptional leader for an exceptional moment in China’s history.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

221. The COVID-19 pandemic: Scenarios to Understand the International Impact

Author:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 spread around the world in a matter of a few short months in 2020. Its long-term effects, as well as the ultimate duration and severity of the pandemic itself, are marked by deep uncertainty. While it is too early to forecast the consequences of COVID-19 with precision, it is possible to systematically explore plausible trajectories for the medium-term future. This research paper uses scenarios to address the following question: what could be the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global political, economic and military balance of power over the course of the next five years? The paper focuses on six clusters of drivers of change to build scenarios. In the realm of politics, the two clusters are governance and geopolitics. The governance cluster straddles the divide of domestic and international politics, combining social cohesion in societies, populism as a political force, the role of the state, nationalism and state capacity. The geopolitics cluster focuses on aspects of international leadership and alliances. In the economic arena, clusters formed around the themes of economic reordering and recovery. In the former, regionalism, protectionism, supply-chain dynamics and Chinese technological leadership are considered. In the latter, the pace of the recovery is set in the context of employment, public debt, finance and energy issues. In the military realm, drivers relating to armed conflict and to military posture were combined to form clusters. The armed-conflict cluster considers projections for threat perceptions, major-power war, conflict among middle powers and intra-state violence. Military posture is captured by examining issues around force projection, the digitisation of armed forces, defence-industrial dynamics, strategic stability and the role of nuclear weapons. Scenarios in this paper are not designed to predict the future, but they are meant to help bound the range of possible futures for which decision-makers may need to prepare. In the scenario Silver Linings, geopolitics in 2025 are characterised by cooperation and the recession of domestic governance challenges. The economic recovery was swift and comprehensive, and although the pandemic modified aspects of globalisation its basic tenets remained intact. Armed conflict of the inter-state and intra-state kind has declined, and military postures are increasingly driven by advanced technologies and a smaller number of overseas operations. In the Downfall scenario, a weakened societal fabric has generated governance challenges at home and geopolitics are characterised by conflict. Economic recovery following the collapse triggered by the pandemic remains slow and incomplete, and economic reordering leads to the fragmentation of pre-existing international ties at the state and commercial levels. Great-power war has become a realistic probability and growing state fragility brought about by the pandemic leads to an increase in armed conflict. The scenario Lost in Transition is full of countervailing forces introducing challenges and a sense of instability. In the realm of politics, the geopolitical situation is marred by conflict, but domestic governance structures are not particularly challenged. Economically, recovery is slow and there are attempts to decouple − leading to bifurcated economic activity − with each strand led by China and the United States respectively. Militarily, new alliances emerge but a key concern is the near-perfect storm that the pandemic has created for security and stability in Africa. The scenario Home Alone outlines a future world in which the economic recovery is highly uneven. Attempts to generate momentum for renewed international cooperation fail as great-power rivalries intensify – however, the European Union emerges as a more confident geopolitical actor. Globalisation is disrupted by a drive to create regional and local supply chains and China forces a bifurcation of production for some sectors. Armed conflict linked to state fragility increases markedly, while the ability and willingness of international actors to provide humanitarian assistance and crisis-management resources fall dramatically. The pandemic itself is an event of world-shattering proportions. Yet many of its political and military implications are likely to be evolutionary in nature. In the period considered here, the potential for radical change (and a break with past practice and assumptions) is perhaps greatest in the economic realm. Furthermore, the scenarios can be helpful in recognising courses of actions that appear to be robust in the sense that they would appear to yield beneficial results across a range of alternative futures. Of course, even ‘future history’ marches on and it will remain crucial to consider the impact of unfolding events to maintain a sense of the direction of travel. The scenario implications will be useful to policymakers seeking to identify particular developments that may be desirable or undesirable. This will in turn facilitate discussion about the levers available and the extent to which such developments can be influenced. The most important point to take away from a European perspective is that across the scenarios a coherent and cohesive Europe is a prerequisite to exploit opportunities and avoid becoming, if not the battleground, than at least the playground for the political and economic policies of others.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

222. The Strategic and Geo-economic Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 will have enduring effects on geopolitics and geo-economics in the Middle East, the Gulf and beyond. In this IISS Manama Dialogue 2020 Special Publication we explore the regional and global implications of the pandemic, including essays on Gulf defence economics, global and great-power politics, the Gulf states’ development models, strategy and geo-economics.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

223. Saving the world by doing business? A background paper on the role of the private sector in Danish aid

Author:
Julie Andersen Schou and Mette Fog Olwig
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:
In recent years publicly funded development and humanitarian aid is being reduced, while the private sector is increasingly being considered a key development actor. This working paper provides an overview of the institutional framework that currently influences these processes in Denmark. We find that in Denmark, this new approach to aid has taken place in the context of a significant change in the Danish national narrative concerning engagement in aid. Whereas the narrative formerly emphasized the importance of selfless global solidarity it has now opened up for approaches that are overtly strategic and self-interested in relation to safety, values, and business interests. While business has always been part of development, the change in narrative has further legitimized combining profit and development. We show how the Danish Government has encouraged civil society to engage in joint ventures with the business sector and describe a spectrum of humanitarian and development initiatives with private business. Together these trends and initiatives have resulted in a Danish institutional framework that, we find, strongly supports and promotes the involvement of business in the development sector. This will have important implications for the scope and agenda of development, as well as for standards for accountability and measurement of results, that need to be further studied.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, Business, Private Sector, and Development Aid
Political Geography:
Denmark

224. Gender and Work Patterns in Indian Cities: A Socio-Spatial Analysis

Author:
Vamsi Vakulabharanam and Sripad Motiram
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Using an original household survey conducted in Hyderabad and Mumbai that identifies intracity spatial coordinates of residents, we present a socio-spatial analysis of gender and paid work. We show that the ease of movement through the city, allocation of care work related considerations and educational attainment are all crucial to understanding the labor force participation patterns of urban women. A gender lens identifies key facets of access and mobility characterizing urbanization in developing countries. Spatial heterogeneity of residence has very different outcomes for the labor force participation of women and men.
Topic:
Development, Labor Issues, Women, Work Culture, Cities, and Gender
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

225. Best Practices in Data Driven Development Planning in Mining Regions

Author:
Nicolas Maennling and Josefina Correa
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Strategic development planning has long been used by private and public sectors to guide actions that will lead to a determined goal in the medium- to long-term. The SDG framework has helped to create a common language of what development means, what the global objectives are by 2030, and how progress can be measured. With the world entering an era in which data is generated and used at an unprecedented scale, data and ICT systems should be used to better inform policy decision making and help evaluate progress to hold stakeholders accountable to their promises and performances. This report outlines how two mining projects in Chile are using planning and monitoring tools to advance development objectives beyond the mining-impacted areas. Several additional examples are showcased in the annex on how governments, companies, and civil society are using improved data accessibility and technological advances to help achieve and monitor their objectives.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Sustainable Development Goals, and Mining
Political Geography:
South America and Chile

226. Research Collaboration on Influence Operations Between Industry and Academia: A Way Forward

Author:
Jacob N. Shapiro, Natalie Thompson, and Alicia Wanless
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Research on influence operations requires effective collaboration across industry and academia. Federally funded research and development centers provide a compelling model for multi-stakeholder collaboration among those working to counter influence operations. Research on influence operations requires effective collaboration across industry and academia. Social media platforms are on the front lines of combating influence operations and possess a wealth of unique data and insights. Academics have rigorous training in research methods and relevant theories, and their independence lends credibility to their findings. The skills and knowledge of both groups are critical to answering important questions about influence operations and ultimately finding more effective ways to counter them. Despite shared interest in studying and addressing influence operations, existing institutions do not provide the proper structures and incentives for cross-sector collaboration. Friction between industry and academia has stymied collaboration on a range of important questions such as how influence operations spread, what effects they have, and what impact potential interventions could have. Present arrangements for research collaboration remain ad hoc, small-scale, and nonstandard across platforms and academic institutions. Federally funded research and development centers (FFRDCs) provide a compelling model for multi-stakeholder collaboration among those working to counter influence operations. Federally funded research institutions—such as the RAND Corporation, the Institute for Defense Analyses, or the MITRE Corporation—have hosted successful cross-sector collaboration between the federal government and academic institutions for more than seventy years. Academic and industry researchers should seek funding and create an analogous institution so the influence operations research community can further collaborative research on shared interests that cannot be addressed with existing models. Drawing from such models, industry would be a primary funder, but governments and philanthropic donors could also contribute to encourage independence and balance.
Topic:
Development, Academia, and Influence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

227. Job loss and household labor supply adjustments in developing countries: Evidence from Argentina

Author:
Matias Ciaschi
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Using longitudinal data for Argentina, this paper measures the labor supply reaction of different household members to a breadwinner’s job loss. Firm events and local unemployment shocks are exploited as exogenous sources of variation to estimate the causal effect. Our main findings show that job loss by the male household head has a significant and substantial effect on the labor supply response of other household members, both at the extensive and intensive margin. While we do not find any effect on daughters, female partners and sons increase their labor market participation. The latter are also more likely to drop out from the educational system. These results are stronger among economically vulnerable households.
Topic:
Development, Education, Labor Issues, and Employment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

228. Launch of the 8th Local Government Councils Scorecard Report FY 2018/19: Summary Report of the Proceedings

Author:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This report presents the proceedings of the launch of the 8th Local Government Councils Scorecard report for the Financial Year 2018/2019 held at Hotel Africana in Kampala. The theme of the launch was: “The Next Big Steps: Consolidating Gains of Decentralisation and Repositioning the Local Government Sector in Uganda.” It was collaboratively convened by the Ministry of Local Government (MoLG), the Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE) and the Uganda Local Governments Association (ULGA). The scorecard assessed the performance of elected district local government leaders in 35 districts strewn across the country, in the context of the decentralisation policy.
Topic:
Development, Budget, Local, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

229. Creation of New Cities in Uganda: Social Economic and Political Implications

Author:
Jonas Mbabazi and Phoebe Atukunda
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This report analyses the socioeconomic implication of new cities in Uganda. The operationalization of new cities requires office structures, staff and other administrative resources that are vital for daily operations. These come with a hefty price tag that can only increase public administration expenditure. Besides the start-up funds, the administrative units require operational funds to enable them to implement their mandate as stipulated in the Local Government Act, 1997. Some of the responsibilities under their mandate include service delivery, governance and administration.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Urbanization, Urban, and Local
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

230. Functionality of Sector Working Groups in Uganda

Author:
Elijah Dickens Mushemeza and Emmanuel Keith Kisaame
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This paper assessed the functionality of the Sector Working Groups (SWGs) in Uganda for insights into the on-going policy developments in selected Sectors. The paper unravels the operational dynamics of the SWGs, their successes, and the challenges they have encountered. It then makes recommendations on how the functionality of SWGs could be improved.
Topic:
Development, Budget, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

231. Assessing Capacities for Local Economic Development in Uganda

Author:
Susan Namirembe Kavuma, Assumpta Tibamwenda, Elijah Dickens Mushemeza, George Bogere, Lillian Tamale, Eugene Gerald Ssemakula, and Jonas Mbabazi
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This report presents the findings and discussions of Local Economic Development (LED) practices in nine districts of Northern Uganda that included: Adjumani, Amuru, Arua, Kitgum, Lira, Omoro, Oyam, and Yumbe. The analysis provides insights into implementation of LED policies, and the level of preparedness of the districts to implement the policy as a tool for economic transformation and development. LED was conceptualised as a process or development model where Local Governments, the private sector, and the community, are jointly and collectively engaged in identification, mobilization and management of resources at the local level. LED is therefore intended to create conducive environments for investment, increased household incomes, and higher revenues for Local Governments.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Governance, and Local
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

232. Effects of US Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building, 1990–2014: An Update

Author:
Steven E. Finkel, Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, Michael Neureiter, and Chris A. Belasco
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper updates our earlier work on the impact of US foreign assistance on democratic outcomes in recipient countries using newly available USAID Foreign Aid Explorer data covering the 2001–2014 period, as well as new outcome measures derived from Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data. Building on the theoretical and empirical framework established in our previous study and in subsequent work in the field, we estimate: a) the effect of overall USAID Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (DRG) expenditures on general indices of democracy, b) changes in the effects of DRG expenditures after 2001, and c) the conditions that moderate the impact of DRG funding at the country level in the contemporary era. We find that the effect of DRG expenditures decreased dramatically in the 2002–2014 period, relative to the modest effect shown in the previous study for the period immediately following the end of the Cold War. However, DRG aid remains effective in the current era under favorable conditions. Further analysis demonstrates important conditional effects related to patterns of DRG investment, such that aid has greater impact when levels of security assistance are low (indicating competing priorities) and when prior DRG investment is low (indicating diminishing returns). In addition, DRG is more effective at intermediate levels of democratization and less so in contexts of democratic backsliding.
Topic:
Security, Development, Globalization, Governance, Democracy, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

233. Agricultural input subsidy and farmers outcomes in Tanzania

Author:
Bethuel Kinyanjui Kinuthia
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of the government input subsidy—the National Agriculture Input Voucher—on farmers’ production and welfare in Tanzania as well as the factors that influence agricultural production in the country. The analysis is based on the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture for 2008–13. The study uses panel fixed effects and difference-in-difference and propensity score matching methods to examine the two objectives. The results show that the input subsidy programme resulted in an initial increase in maize and rice production but not in the long run and only in a few regions. In addition, there was a decrease in total production in the southern region and the programme had little effect on farmers’ welfare. The results show that this programme only partly met the expected outcomes in Tanzania due to mistargeting, inaccurate identification of households, and poor implementation.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Welfare, Farming, and Subsidies
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

234. The Political Economy of Industrial Policy in the European Union.

Author:
Fabio Bulfone
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The Great Recession renewed calls for a return of state activism in support of the European economy. The widespread nationalization of ailing companies and the growing activism of national development banks led many to celebrate the reappearance of industrial policy. By reviewing the evolution of the goals, protagonists, and policy instru- ments of industrial policy since the postwar period, this paper shows how state intervention never ceased to be a crucial engine of growth across the EU. It argues that the decline of the Fordist wage-led production regime marked a turning point in the political economy of industrial policy with the transition from inward-looking to open-market forms of state in- tervention. The main features of open-market industrial policy are then discussed referring to the cases of the internationalization of national champions in public service sectors and the proliferation across the EU of industrial clusters. Finally, the paper reviews postcrisis in- stances of state intervention and highlights how, rather than breaking with past tendencies, the Great Recession further accelerated the shift towards open-market industrial policy.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Integration, and Industry
Political Geography:
Europe

235. The praxis of combating VAW in Ethiopia: A political interpretation

Author:
Dereje Feyissa
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Violence against Women (VAW) is among the human rights violations that women face globally every day. The roots of VAW lie in historically unequal power relations between men and women and pervasive discrimination against women in both the public and private spheres. VAW is a global phenomenon that is not limited to certain cultures or countries. However, the form it takes is context-specific. In Ethiopia VAW is pervasive, occurring at three levels as identified by the UN: family; community; and the state. Despite policy pronouncements and the implementation of some practical measures, VAW is still prevalent in Ethiopia. This new Working Paper by Dereje Feyissa, adjunct associate professor, Addis Ababa University, offers a political interpretation to explain the gap between policy and practice on VAW in Ethiopia. Specifically, it argues that the gap between policy and practice lies in the type of regime in Ethiopia, which has undermined the political will and limited the space for gender activism. Historically, this has been evident ideologically (the Marxist frame of the ‘women question’ and the vanguardism connected with it), but also in respect to political legitimacy (ethnic federalism and the priority given to cultural rights), entrenched authoritarianism and the limited space available for gender activism by women’s right groups. The Working Paper is published as part of the international research programme GLOW – Global Norms and Violence Against Women in Ethiopia – financed by the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, International Organization, Poverty, Women, Inequality, and Gender Based Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

236. Renewable energy poses opportunities and challenges in Africa

Author:
Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen, Ole Winckler Andersen, and Henning Nøhr
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Development assistance plays an important role in the development of energy sectors in sub-Saharan African countries and it is increasingly being used to promote new renewable energy like solar and wind. The relationship between aid and domestic African priorities is however complex and outcomes are not always as donors had intended. By way of collecting experiences from a number of different approaches in different African country contexts a new DIIS Working Paper analyses recent trends in development assistance for new renewable energy. Overall, the paper demonstrates a shift to promoting market-led approaches that aim at mobilising private capital for power-sector investments. Whereas more capital has indeed been mobilised for new renewable energy projects the paper suggests that more support is needed if a transition to cleaner energy and universal access to energy services are to be achieved. Furthermore, the promotion of market-led approaches poses not only opportunities, but also a number of challenges to governments and donors. Clean energy and decarbonisation are often less of a priority among key decision-makers in African countries than they are for western donors. The paper argues that it is important to recognise these different interests and to be realistic about how to bridge them. Furthermore, despite improvements in recent years the capacity to plan, procure and integrate renewable energy in power systems remains a challenge in many countries. This points to the importance of ensuring a balance between support for market development and support for capacity-building of government entities. Needs are likely to differ from one country to another and change as renewable technologies develop. The constant adaption of approaches is therefore crucial.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

237. Weaponizing the Belt and Road Initiative

Author:
Daniel R. Russel and Blake Berger
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by President Xi Jinping in 2013, is a massive international infrastructure program involving nearly 140 countries with over an estimated $1 trillion in projects related to energy, transportation, digital networks, and trade. Chinese leaders frame the BRI as “win-win” cooperation focused solely on development and connectivity. Beijing has gone to great lengths to minimize BRI’s links to the People’s Liberation Army and to downplay the initiative’s geostrategic overtones. Nevertheless, many governments have become worried about ulterior motives behind BRI projects, many of which have dual-use commercial-military capabilities and are increasingly connected to Chinese digital technologies and networks and satellite systems. The Asia Society Policy Institute’s – Weaponizing the Belt and Road Initiative – examines key BRI projects in the Indo-Pacific and explores relevant Chinese doctrine, the involvement of the People’s Liberation Army with BRI, and assesses the potential military and geostrategic advantages to China from BRI ports and other projects. This project is led by ASPI Vice President for International Security and Diplomacy Daniel Russel, with support from ASPI Senior Program Officer Blake Berger. The project and the report benefitted from advisement from experts and officials in Singapore, Australia, Japan, Vietnam, China, and the United States as well as to the expert advisory group whose distinguished members generously shared their time and wisdom to support this effort.
Topic:
Development, Geopolitics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China and Asia

238. Financing Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) in Botswana Through the Capital Market

Author:
Kelesego Mmolainyane
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
In her quest to further graduate to the high-income status, Botswana seeks to invest more in infrastructure development for both productive and social use. An efficient and effective infrastructure provision is fundamental to excellent public service delivery and access. Sadly, Botswana, like many other world economies, has a challenge of having an infrastructure financing gap. One of the innovative ways to fill this gap is through public private partnerships (PPPs) with the capital market that has excess liquidity. Infrastructure PPPs are complex and capital intensive projects that require project finance experts to advise parties involved regarding returns and risks associated with each project. Various project-financing models can be designed to suit project specifications and they cannot be over-generalised for all PPP projects. Nevertheless, given the tight fiscal space, Botswana now, more than ever, should consider issuing PPP bonds and applying user changes model to finance economic PPP infrastructure for sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Infrastructure, Finance, Public Sector, Economic Development, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

239. Key Drivers of Industrial Growth: A Case Study of Botswana’s Manufacturing Sector

Author:
Johanne Motsatsi and Goitseone Khanie
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The paper examines the key determinants of industrial growth in Botswana, using manufacturing sector value added as the proxy for industrial growth. It employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach using annual time series data for the period 1983 to 2015. Empirical results show that industrial growth is driven by financial sector development, human capital development, trade openness and foreign direct investment. Specifically, domestic credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP and secondary school enrolment ratio are found to be significantly related to manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP both in the long run and short run. While the relationship is limited to long run for total trade to GDP, it only exits in the short run for FDI net inflows. The study therefore recommends that policy makers should design and ensure proper implementation of financial sector development strategies that can help ease access to credit for manufacturing enterprises in the country. There is also a need for a holistic approach in the design and implementation of innovation and human resource development policies in order to provide a conducive environment for skills acquisition, innovation and technological advancements in the manufacturing sector. Trade policies and export promotion strategies should heighten productivity and value addition in the manufacturing sector, so as to make local firms internationally competitive. Finally, with regards to FDI, the Government of Botswana should create an environment that could entice multinationals to invest in the local manufacturing industry. This, however, should be coupled with protectionist policies to avoid crowding out local manufacturers and exposing them to foreign competition.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Economic Growth, Manufacturing, Economic Development, and Industrialization
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

240. Whistleblowing in Botswana's Construction Industry : A Public and Private Sector Perspective

Author:
Marumo Omotoye
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The construction industry (CI) is considered one of the most corrupt both internationally and regionally. Therefore, this study examined the views and attitudes of professionals in Botswana’s CI towards the role whistleblowing (or protected disclosure) can play in curbing corruption in the sector. A convergent mixed methods approach was adopted. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key stakeholders from the construction industry. Furthermore, a self-administered survey was utilised to collect quantitative data from 117 construction firms. Data revealed that there was little awareness of whistleblowing legislation. Fear of retaliation or punishment and job loss, and a lack of education on whistleblowing were identified as some of the most substantial barriers to effective whistleblowing in the industry. From a public policy perspective, it is recommended that an emphasis be placed on improving levels of education and awareness on whistleblowing in the construction sector. In addition, there should be consideration to amend the Whistleblowing Act 2016 to include construction industry regulators, the Public Procurement and Asset Disposal Board, and private media amongst the list of institutions authorised to receive reports of impropriety in order to extend the scope of legal protection to whistleblowers in the sector. Recommendations for further research are provided.
Topic:
Corruption, Development, Economics, Public Sector, Manufacturing, Economic Development, Private Sector, Industry, and Whistle Blowing
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

241. A preliminary assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Azerbaijani economy

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Azerbaijan became the country among the post-soviet countries, that allocated the largest share of GDP, in order to eliminate the economic challenges caused due to the outbreak of COVID-19. Providing favorable economic conditions in the post-pandemic period is as crucial as supporting the economy during the period of the pandemic. It is an undeniable fact that the impact of the pandemic on the economy might be fully assessed only over time. Experience demonstrates that early evaluation may lead to even greater recession and instability. This paper aims to demonstrate the challenges faced by Azerbaijan in the framework of the fight against a pandemic. Since the economy of a country was affected, a detailed analysis may provide a better understanding of the outcome, enlightening the areas which need more support and development.
Topic:
Development, Economy, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

242. COVID-19 and Canada’s Development Assitance in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Emily Gilfillan
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
COVID-19 has created unprecedented challenges for governments around the world. In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the global outbreak of COVID-19 a pandemic. In addition to a worldwide health crisis, the pandemic has had far-reaching socioeconomic impacts that have been severest for the most vulnerable people and have exacerbated existing inequalities. This presents wealthy countries like Canada with a challenge: addressing the health crisis and economic fallout at home, while simultaneously supporting a global COVID-19 response and continuing to tackle existing development priorities. This report explores the implications of COVID-19 for Canada’s development assistance efforts in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Given that 27 of the 28 poorest countries in the world are located in SSA and half of Canada’s Official Development Assistance (ODA) budget is expected to go to countries in Africa by 2021-22, it is a priority region. To date, Canada has maintained ODA spending levels, while also providing additional funds in support of global efforts to address COVID-19. Evidence suggests that pre-pandemic priorities in the region, such as gender equality, health, and food security, have not been derailed. Rather, the impact of the pandemic has reinforced the importance of core development objectives such as achieving the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In particular, Canada’s Feminist International Assistance Policy (FIAP) is fit for purpose to address the gendered impact of the pandemic. It is clear that the pandemic does not affect men and women equally. While the right policy tools are in place, building back better will require Canadian resolve and leadership to stay the course and ensure the most vulnerable are not left behind.
Topic:
Development, Gender Issues, Finance, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Canada, North America, and Sub-Saharan Africa

243. Quantifying the Demand, Supply, and Welfare Effects of Natural Disasters Using Monthly Trade Data

Author:
Gabriel Felbermayr, Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, and Benedikt Heid
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
We estimate the short-run trade effects of natural disasters using monthly trade data and data on the physical intensity of earthquakes and storms. We find large negative effects for heavily indebted poor, least developed or landlocked developing countries but only small effects for other economies. We use our estimates to identify key parameters of a dynamic quantitative trade model to disentangle the effects of disasters on supply, demand, and welfare and their spillovers on third countries via trade linkages. We apply our model to quantify the effects of the 1992 earthquake in Nicaragua, a small, heavily indebted poor country, and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, a large developed economy. We find that spillovers are negligible if the country affected by a disaster is small but sizable for large economies. Similar disasters have heterogeneous effects on countries’ demand and supply, highlighting the importance of event-specific policies in the aftermath of disasters.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Natural Disasters, Economic Growth, and Trade
Political Geography:
Japan and Nicaragua

244. Higher economic growth in poor countries, lower migration flows to the OECD: Revisiting the migration hump with panel data

Author:
David Benček and Claas Schneiderheinze
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Comparing emigration rates of countries at different stages of economic development, an inverse u-shape emerges. Although merely based on cross-sectional evidence, the“migration hump” is widely interpreted as a causal relationship. Therefore, economic progress in developing countries is assumed to increase migration. For policy makers in destination countries that implies a sensitive trade-off between supporting development and reducing immigration pressures. In this paper we investigate whether the migration hump holds up to more scrutiny, finding that the cross-sectional pattern is misleading. Using 35 years of data on migration flows to OECD destinations, we successfully reproduce the hump-shape in the cross-section. However, more rigorous fixed effects panel estimations that exploit the variation over time consistently show a negative association between income and emigration. This result is independent of the level of income a country starts out at and thus casts doubt on any causal interpretation of the migration hump.
Topic:
Development, International Political Economy, Migration, Economic Growth, Economic Development, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and Emigration
Political Geography:
Global Focus

245. Assessing Asia: Sub-Saharan Africa Global Value Chain Linkages

Author:
Heiwai Tang, Douglas Zhihua Zeng, and Albert Zeufack
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper studies the relationship between Asia’s economic engagements in Africa and individual African nations’ participation in global value chains (GVC) over the past two decades. We find that while overall exports from Africa to Asia are still highly concentrated in resource-intensive sectors, a few African countries have exploited the emerging opportunities to diversify export portfolios through exporting to Asia. Each African nation has a distinct main trade partner in Asia, in contrast to the common view that China has become the dominant trade partner of most African nations. Using a panel data set for 46 African countries over 16 years from 2000 and 2015, we find that exports to Asia are positively correlated with exports to the rest of the world, suggesting that in contrast to trade diversion, trade with Asia complements exports to other countries. Asian economic engagement in the continent is associated with countries’ exports “moving up the value chain”, as measured by the upstreamness index proposed by Antras et al. (2012). However, such process was accompanied by a reduction in the length of their production chains, implying that fewer stages and countries are now involved in the production of exported goods.
Topic:
Development, International Political Economy, Natural Resources, Partnerships, Exports, Trade, Global Value Chains, and Data
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, and Global Focus

246. Is China Still a Developing Country? And Why It Matters for Energy and Climate

Author:
Philippe Benoit and Kevin Tu
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
China’s dramatic economic growth in the 21st century has made it not only the second largest economy in the world but also a powerhouse in the global energy system. Now, as the top energy consumer and the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, China is being closely watched and judged as its impact on energy markets and climate grows more profound. Looking forward, many issues are expected to shape the evolution of China’s energy sector, not least of which is its development status. While China’s economic might makes it a superpower alongside the United States, it still faces many of the major challenges of a typical developing country, such as widespread energy poverty, including 400 million people without access to clean cooking, significant air pollution, and dependence on increasing energy use to fuel future economic growth. Its modest income per capita qualifies it as a middle-income developing country. Evaluating China’s development status is not just an academic exercise. How China views itself and its challenges and how the international community classifies it carry real-world consequences that can significantly impact how the country manages its energy needs going forward, what fuels it uses, how it interacts with energy and other partners, and the level of its contributions and commitment to climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts worldwide. Understanding the nature and implications of China’s development situation can help in designing energy policies and fostering an international framework that better promote sustainable growth both within the country and globally. This paper examines how the usual criteria employed by international organizations to determine a country’s development standing have become increasingly difficult to apply to China, given the dramatic changes it has undergone over the past several decades, notably from an energy perspective. The paper finds that China combines significant characteristics of both developing and developed countries and examines the energy and environmental implications of this hybrid status.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
China and Asia

247. Food Security in Times of Crisis: Poor Developing Countries are Different

Author:
Michael Brüntrup
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Until now, the Corona crisis is mainly fought through lockdown measures. In more wealthy countries, these have barely an immediate effect on food security. In poor countries, the situation is different: There, these measures threaten people immediately. The text discusses issues and consequences.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Food Security, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

248. Bridging the Gaps: An Integrated Approach to Assessing Aid Effectiveness

Author:
Heiner Janus
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This briefing paper proposes an integrated approach of aid effectiveness that brings together four fragemented policy and research communities. The integrated approach can help development organisations and researchers to better organise and communicate their contributions to the 2030 Agenda.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

249. Triangular Cooperation: Broader, more Dynamic and Flexible

Author:
Geovana Zoccal
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
rilateral Cooperation (TriCo) has to operate growing complexity in the international development cooperation, going beyond the North-South-divide. TriCo became broader, more dynamic and flexible. The briefing presents recommendations to advance TriCo for all donors, and to make the modality support the 2030 Agenda.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Global Focus

250. Earmarked Funding for Multilateral Development Cooperation: Asset and Impediment

Author:
Max Otto Baumann and Erik Lundsgaarde
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The United Nations development system and other multilateral organizations have increasingly been funded through earmarked contributions. This has implications for their ability to effectively and independently perform the functions member states’ expect of them.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, United Nations, Multilateralism, Development Aid, and Funding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

251. Germany’s Funding to the UNDS: Towards a Better Mix for Stronger Multilateralism

Author:
Silke Weinlich, Max Otto Baumann, and Erik Lundsgaarde
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Germany has become the second-largest funder of UN humanitarian and development work, but its funding is rather fragmented and restricted. To be an effective supporter of multilateralism, the German Government should adopt a coordinated, strategically informed approach to funding UN organizations.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

252. Systemic Challenges and Opportunities of Franco-German Development Cooperation

Author:
Lennart Kaplan
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
How can France and Germany develop a vision for an improved collaboration towards the 2030 agenda for sustainable development? This paper compares the French and German development systems to identify barriers and opportunities for a closer cooperation with partner countries.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany

253. The future of European development banking: what role and place for the European Investment Bank?

Author:
Benedikt Erforth
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The paper takes stock of the European development finance landscape and the EIB’s role as part of this landscape. It looks at the interactions between different European development stakeholders and assesses the proposed reform and its potential impact on European development policy.
Topic:
Development, Finance, Banks, and Investment
Political Geography:
Europe

254. Carbon Consumption Patterns of Emerging Middle Classes

Author:
Babette Never, Jose Ramon Albert, Hanna Fuhrmann, Sebastian Gsell, Miguel Jaramillo, Sascha Kuhn, and Bernardin Senadza
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
As households move out of poverty, spending patterns change. This is good news from a development perspective, but changing consumer behaviour may imply substantially more carbon emissions. The lifestyle choices of the emerging middle classes are key, now and in the future. This paper explores the consumption patterns of the emerging middle classes and their carbon intensity, using unique micro data from household surveys conducted in Ghana, Peru and the Philippines. We find that carbon-intensive consumption increases with wealth in all three countries, and most sharply from the fourth to the fifth middle-class quintile due to changes in travel behaviour, asset ownership and use. In Peru, this shift in the upper-middleclass quintiles translates to annual incomes of roughly USD 11,000-17,000 purchasing power parity. Environmental knowledge and concern are fairly evenly spread at mid- to high levels and do lead to more easy-entry sustainable behaviours, but they do not decrease the level of carbon emissions. To some extent, a knowledge/concern–action gap exists. In our study, social status matters less than the literature claims. Our results have two implications. First, the differentiations between developing/developed countries in the global climate debate may be outdated: It is about being part of the global middle classes or not. Second, a positive spillover from existing easy-entry sustainable behaviours to a change in carbon-intensive consumption patterns needs policy support.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Class, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

255. Corporate Tax Revenue and Foreign Direct Investment: Potential Trade-Offs and How to Address Them

Author:
Sabine Laudage
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Corporate tax revenue and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) are two key development finance sources. This paper discusses potential trade-offs faced by developing countries, when mobilizing corporate tax revenue and FDI jointly, and provides policy recommendations how to address these trade-offs.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Direct Investment, Finance, and Corporate Tax
Political Geography:
Global Focus

256. Monitoring in German Bilateral Development Cooperation: A Case Study of Agricultural, Rural Development and Food Security Projects

Author:
Sarah Holzapfel and Cornelia Römling
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Monitoring and evaluation to increase evidence and thus aid effectiveness remains a challenge in the development community. This analysis of German bilateral development cooperation projects highlights quality challenges in German reporting and recommends adjustments for a more effective M&E system.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Development, International Cooperation, and Rural
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

257. How the G7 Reviews its Work on Development: A Case Study of Internal Accountability

Author:
Roger A. Fischer
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This paper suggests ways to improve G7 accountability practice so that it better capture learning effects. Better designed commitments and improved follow up would also support G7 legitimacy, because this would make it easier for external stakeholders to check G7 action against its words.
Topic:
Development, Accountability, and G7
Political Geography:
Global Focus

258. How Sustainable is Recycling? Reconciling the Social, Ecological, and Economic Dimensions in Argentina

Author:
Anna Pegels, Stefanie Heyer, David Ohlig, Felix Kurz, Lena Laux, and Prescott Morley
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
How can recycling in developing countries be shaped to be socially, environmentally, and economically sustainable? Our research synthesizes the ideas and expectations of a diverse set of actors in the recycling sector of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Topic:
Development, Economy, and Recycling
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

259. China and Middle East Security Issues: Challenges, Perceptions and Positions

Author:
Jin Liangxiang
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Middle East and Gulf region face three drivers of tension and instability: those caused by the US’s erratic and unilateral policies, those tied to economic underdevelopment and those linked to growing competition among regional actors. China is and will be facing economic challenges stemming from the Middle East and will face growing calls to assume more active roles in the region, roles which however often go beyond its capabilities or interests. China’s approach to regional security can be categorised as promoting political solutions to disputes, contributing to economic development and providing security resources within the UN framework. China backs regional efforts to achieve peace and security via dialogue, also including extra-regional actors involved in the Middle East. China is sympathetic to Russia’s vision for regional security cooperation, and would support the convening of an international conference on Middle East security issues that includes specific roles for regional and external actors.
Topic:
Security, Development, and Gulf Nations
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, and United States of America

260. Determinants of Korean Outward Foreign Direct Investment: How Do Korean Firms Respond to the Labor Costs of Host Countries?

Author:
Hanbyul Ryu and Young Sik Jeong
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Low cost of labor has been one of the major incentives that foreign firms invest in many developing countries. Yet, many developing countries including China and ASEAN have recently experienced a rapid increase in labor costs. Using the wage information provided by JETRO, this study examines how Korean FDI outflow is affected by the increase in labor costs of the manufacturing industry in host countries. The results indicate that the worker’s and engineer’s wages in Asian developing countries, who accumulated at least 3 and 5 years of work experience, have generally a negative impact on Korean FDI outflow. However, there exist positive relationships between the wages and FDI when the wages stay at very low levels. We do not find evidence that labor costs make a significant impact on Korean FDI outflow to European or Developed countries.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Direct Investment, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Korea

261. Iran’s Preferred Outcome in Syria: An Open-End or a Formal Agreement?

Author:
Hassan Ahmadian
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Iran’s security concerns drove its involvement in the Syrian crisis back in 2011. With an evolving strategy over the past nine years, Tehran has upgraded its Syria policy in accordance with the ongoing developments on the ground, moving from military training based on the Iranian Basij model, to regionalising this model (as was the case in Iraq with the Popular Mobilization Forces) and encouraging Russian military involvement. In what may be seen as the final stage, Iran is backing its Syrian ally as well as allied militias to balance against other main stakeholders. Iran is attempting to solidify military gains by continuing to back a political process that is properly representative of warring parties and ensures a smooth transition of power, and one whose outcomes will not undermine Iranian geopolitical interests in the country.
Topic:
Security, Development, Military Strategy, Regionalism, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

262. Financial Inclusion in Eswatini: What is Driving the Adoption of Mobile Money?

Author:
T. Magongo
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Mobile money has gained increasing importance and prominence in many sub-Saharan African countries and as a result, it is seen as a possible key to fast-tracking financial inclusion in developing countries including Eswatini. Although financial inclusion rates have improved considerably in Eswatini, the adoption of mobile money is still relatively low in the country compared to other countries in subSaharan Africa, yet a majority of the population knows about the technology. This study investigates the driving factors of mobile money adoption in Eswatini using a logit and probit analysis based on the 2014 FinScope Financial Access and Consumer Survey. Findings reveal that the likelihood of using mobile money increases with increasing levels of financial literacy, education, sending and receiving remittances using mobile money, usage of informal financial products, living in an urban area, and adjusting income during times of shock. Results suggest opportunities for financial inclusiveness such as designing and implementation of financial literacy education and money management programs, purposely targeting the underserved population (rural), as well as informal financial product usage formalization.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Finance, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

263. The Political Economy of Industrial Policy in the European Union

Author:
Fabio Bulfone
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
The Great Recession renewed calls for a return of state activism in support of the European economy. The widespread nationalization of ailing companies and the growing activism of national development banks led many to celebrate the reappearance of industrial policy. By reviewing the evolution of the goals, protagonists, and policy instruments of industrial policy since the postwar period, this paper shows how state intervention never ceased to be a crucial engine of growth across the EU. It argues that the decline of the Fordist wage-led production regime marked a turning point in the political economy of industrial policy with the transition from inward-looking to open-market forms of state intervention. The main features of open-market industrial policy are then discussed referring to the cases of the internationalization of national champions in public service sectors and the proliferation across the EU of industrial clusters. Finally, the paper reviews postcrisis instances of state intervention and highlights how, rather than breaking with past tendencies, the Great Recession further accelerated the shift towards open-market industrial policy.
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, European Union, Capitalism, Regional Integration, and Banks
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

264. Cash Transfers in Palestine: Building Blocks of Social Protection

Author:
Munk School of Global Affairs
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto
Abstract:
The Reach Project is a research initiative based in the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy and supported by the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth. They examine the successful delivery of social services to those who are hardest to reach. This case study examines how the Ministry of Social Development in Palestine designed, implemented, and continues to refine the Palestinian National Cash Transfer Program (PNCTP) to specifically reach those who are hard to reach.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Poverty, Inequality, and Social Services
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

265. Theories of Democratic Change Phase III: Transitions from Conflict

Author:
Jennifer R. Dresden, Thomas E. Flores, and Irfan Nooruddin
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
The notion that robust democracy and violent conflict are linked is commonplace. Many observers of international politics attribute violent conflict in contexts as diverse as Myanmar and Syria to failures of democracy. Conversely, most agree that continuing political violence undermines any effort to build strong democratic institutions in Libya or South Sudan. As a matter of policy, democratization has often been promoted not only as an end in itself but as a means toward building peace in societies scarred by violence. Development professionals tackle these challenges daily, confronting vicious cycles of political violence and weak democratic institutions. At the same time, scholars have dedicated intense scrutiny to these questions, often finding that the interrelationships between conflict and democracy belie easy categorization. This report, the third in a series on democratic theories of change, critically engages with this literature to ask three questions: Under what circumstances do democratic practice or movement toward democracy quell (or exacerbate) the risk of different kinds of violent conflict? Under what circumstances do the risk and experience of violent conflict undermine democratic practice? How can external interventions mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities inherent in transitions to democracy and peace? To answer these questions, a research team at George Mason University and Georgetown University spent eight months compiling, organizing, and evaluating the academic literature connecting democratic practice and violent conflict, which spans the fields of political science, economics, peace studies, anthropology, sociology, and psychology. This work was funded by USAID’s Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (the DRG Center), under the Institute of International Education’s (IIE’s) Democracy Fellows and Grants Program. Beginning in May 2018, the authors organized a team of three research assistants, who read and summarized more than 600 journal articles, books, reports, and newspaper articles. The resulting White Paper was the subject of an August 2018 workshop with representatives from USAID and an interdisciplinary group of eight scholars with expertise in conflict and democracy. Based on their feedback, the authors developed a new Theories of Change Matrix and White Paper in October 2018. This draft received further written feedback from USAID and another three scholars. The core team then revised the report again to produce this final draft. This report’s approach to the literature differs from past phases of the Theories of Democratic Change project. While past reports detailed the hypothesized causes of democratic backsliding (Phase I) and democratic transitions (Phase II), this report focuses on the reciprocal relationship between democratic practice and conflict. The report therefore organizes hypotheses into two questions and then sub-categories within each question.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Education, Democracy, Conflict, Political Science, and USAID
Political Geography:
Libya, Syria, North America, Myanmar, South Sudan, Global Focus, and United States of America

266. The Socio-economic Impact of Anti-vehicle Mines in Angola

Author:
Yeonju Jung
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The humanitarian and developmental impact of anti-vehicle mines (AVMs) is particularly relevant in immediate post-conflict reconstruction efforts. However, the comprehensive analysis of how AVMs hamper the socio-economic and sustainable development outlook of communities in the medium and long term has often been overlooked. This pilot study depicts the impact of AVM contamination on socio-economic development and the benefits of AVM clearance on sustainable development. To do so, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) serve as a framework to measure the impact of AVM clearance on agriculture, infrastructure, and access to social services.
Topic:
Development, Conflict, Peace, and Landmines
Political Geography:
Africa and Angola

267. Building Development Partnership: Engagement Between China and Latin America

Author:
Haibin Niu
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The full-fledged economic ties between China and Latin America and the Caribbean are important indicators of China’s role as a global player. In the ongoing and heightened debate about China’s rise, China’s impact on Latin America is being discussed by scholars and policymakers worldwide. Though there are doubts about China’s intentions and impact on Latin America, China has developed a more substantial and meaningful policy framework to build development partnership with the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, International Cooperation, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Latin America

268. International Development Cooperation After Brexit

Author:
Mikaela Gavas
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Mikaela Gavas submitted written evidence to the United Kingdom's House of Lords EU External Affairs Sub-Committee on January 31, 2019. In her evidence Gavas answered questions about the future of UK-EU development cooperation after Brexit.
Topic:
Development, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

269. Learning Equity Requires More than Equality: Learning Goals and Achievement Gaps between the Rich and the Poor in Five Developing Countries

Author:
Maryam Akmal and Lant Pritchett
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for education include the goal that “all youth...achieve literacy and numeracy” (Target 4.6). Achieving some absolute standard of learning for all children is a key element of global equity in education. Using the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) data from India and Pakistan, and Uwezo data from Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda that test all children of given ages, whether in school or not, on simple measures of learning in math, reading (local language), and English, we quantify the role of achieving equality between the richest 20% and the poorest 40% in terms of grade attainment and learning achievement toward accomplishing the global equity goal of universal numeracy and literacy for all children. First, excluding Kenya, equalizing grade attainment between children from rich and poor households would only close between 8% (India) and 25% (Pakistan) of the gap to universal numeracy, and between 8% (Uganda) and 28% (Pakistan) of the gap to universal literacy. Second, children from the poorest 40% of households tend to have lower performance in literacy and numeracy at each grade. If such children had the learning profiles of children from rich households, we would close between 16% (Pakistan and Uganda) and 34% (India) of the gap to universal numeracy, and between 13% (Uganda) and 44% (India) of the gap to universal literacy. This shows that the “hidden exclusion” (WDR, 2018) of lower learning at the same grade levels—a gap that emerges in the earliest grades—is a substantial and often larger part of the equity gap compared to the more widely documented gaps in enrollment and grade attainment. Third, even with complete equality in grade attainment and learning achievement, children from poor households would be far from the equity goal of universal numeracy and literacy, as even children from the richest 20% of households are far from universal mastery of basic reading and math by ages 12-13. Achieving universal literacy and numeracy to accomplish even a minimal standard of global absolute equity will require more than just closing the rich-poor learning gap, it will take progress in learning for all.
Topic:
Development, Education, Sustainable Development Goals, and Language
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Kenya, Africa, Middle East, India, Asia, and Tanzania

270. A Short-Sighted Vision for Global Britain

Author:
Owen Barder, Hannah Timmis, and Arthur Baker
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
here has been a resurgence in calls to reconsider the cross-party consensus in the UK on foreign aid and development. The main political parties are all committed to spending 0.7 percent of gross national income on aid, to using the internationally agreed definition of aid, and to maintaining a separate government department to administer the majority of this aid, led by a Cabinet Minister. In their recent report, Global Britain: A Twenty-first Century Vision, Bob Seely MP and James Rogers lay challenge to these long-established pillars of UK development policy. In this note, we consider some of the questions they raise and suggest alternative answers.
Topic:
Development, Government, Foreign Aid, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

271. Why “Leapfrogging” in Frontier Markets Isn’t Working

Author:
Bright Simons
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Just before the yuletide of 2018, I arrived in my native Ghana after one of my long spells away. I flipped out my phone, opened Uber, and tried to flag a ride from inside the shiny new terminal of Accra’s international airport. After a couple of false starts I gave up, walked out, and headed for the taxi stand. In the many days that followed, this ritual repeated itself with remarkable regularity. Sometimes I got the Uber, but on as many occasions, I couldn’t. The reasons for the frequent failure ranged from curious to bizarre. The “partner-drivers” would accept the request. Then they would begin to go around in circles. Sometimes they would start heading in the opposite direction. On a few occasions they would call and announce that they were “far away,” even though their registered location was visible to me on the app and their estimated time of arrival had factored into my decision to wait. It would take me a whole week to figure out that the problem wasn’t always that many Ghanaian Uber drivers couldn’t use GPS all that well, or that they were displeased with fares. There were other issues that I’d left out of my calculation, such as my payment preference, which was set to “bank card” instead of “cash.” The drivers want cash because it allows them to unofficially “borrow” from Uber and remit Uber’s money when it suits their cashflow. Though Uber offers two tiers of service, the difference in quality appeared negligible. Even on the upper tier, it was a constant struggle to find an Uber whose air conditioner hadn’t “just stopped working earlier today.” As something of a globetrotter used to seamless Uber services in European and American cities, I found the costs of onboarding onto Uber as my main means of mobility in Accra onerous. Why is a powerful corporation like Uber, reportedly valued by shrewd investment bankers at $120 billion, with $24 billion in capital raised, unable to maintain even a relative semblance of quality in its product in Ghana? And in other African cities I have visited? It may seem bleedingly obvious why heavily digitalised Facebook, Twitter, Microsoft, and Google manage to deliver fairly uniform standards of product quality regardless of where their customers are based, whilst Uber, because of its greater “embeddedness in local ecosystems” and lower digitalisation of its value chain, fails. But in that seemingly redundant observation enfolds many explanations for why the innovation-based leapfrogging narrative in frontier markets, especially in Africa, unravels at close quarters.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Governance, Digital Economy, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Africa

272. Making Basel III Work for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Author:
Thorsten Beck and Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
A sound financial regulatory framework is critical for minimizing the risk imposed by financial system fra­gility. In the world’s emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), such regulation is also essential to support economic development and poverty reduc­tion. Meanwhile, it is increasingly recognized that global financial stability is a global public good: recent decades have seen the development of new inter­national financial regulatory standards, to serve as benchmarks for gauging regulation across countries, facilitate cooperation among financial supervisors from different countries, and create a level playing field for financial institutions wherever they operate. For the worldwide banking industry, the international regulatory standards promulgated by the Basel Com­mittee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) stand out for their wide-ranging scope and detail. Even though the latest Basel recommendations, adopted in late 2017 and known as Basel III, are, like their predecessors, calibrated primarily for advanced countries, many EMDEs are in the process of adopting and adapting them, and many others are considering it. They do so because they see it as in their long-term interest, but at the same time the new standards pose for them new risks and challenges. This report assesses the implica­tions of Basel III for EMDEs and provides recommen­dations for both international and local policymakers to make Basel III work for these economies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

273. Downsizing Defense in Development: Unpacking DOD’s Development Assistance

Author:
Sarah Rose
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The US Department of Defense (DOD) is not a development agency, but it does manage millions of dollars of development assistance. In the early 2000s, DOD took on a significantly expanded development role, prompting a number of concerns and creating a lingering perception of intensive US military involvement in development activities. In fact, lessons learned from this era drove a reconceptualization of the Pentagon’s role in development. Today, the military controls only a tiny portion of US development funds, most of which go toward health (mainly PEPFAR) and disaster relief activities. This paper provides a brief landscape analysis of DOD’s recent development aid-funded efforts, breaking down its engagement into six key thematic areas. It concludes with five considerations related to DOD’s role in development assistance: (1) DOD has comparative advantages that make it an important actor in US development policy; (2) civilian-military coordination is hard but critical for development policy coherence; (3) adequate resourcing of civilian agencies is critical for effective civilian-military division of labor; (4) increasing the flexibility of civilian agencies’ staffing, programming, and funding could complement the military’s rapid response capabilities; and (5) incomplete transparency and limited focus on results reduces accountability around DOD’s aid investments.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, Military Strategy, Bureaucracy, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
United States and North America

274. Does the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Help or Hinder Financial Inclusion? A Study of FATF Mutual Evaluation Reports

Author:
Michael Pisa
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
As the organization responsible for setting international standards on anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT), the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has encouraged countries to design measures that protect the integrity of the financial system and support financial inclusion. But it has also received criticism that poor implementation of its standards can undermine financial access. One of the FATF’s main tools for compelling effective use of its standards is the mutual evaluation process, which relies on peer reviews to assess countries’ level of compliance with the FATF Recommendations. We explore whether these reviews have been conducted in a way that helps or hinders national efforts to promote financial inclusion by reviewing the 33 developing country mutual evaluations that took place between 2015-2018. Overall, these findings suggest that assessment teams have conducted mutual evaluations in a way that supports efforts to promote financial inclusion and the flexible use of simplified measures. There is, however, inconsistency in how assessors treat risks emanating from financial exclusion, which suggests the need for a more systematic approach to evaluating these risks.
Topic:
Development, Terrorism, Finance, and Financial Integrity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

275. Understanding the Opportunity Cost, Seizing the Opportunity: Report of the Working Group on Incorporating Economics and Modelling in Global Health Goals and Guidelines

Author:
The Working Group on Incorporating Economics and Modeling in Global Health Goals and Guidelines
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Internationally set goals and guidelines directly influ­ence the setting of health care priorities at the national level, affecting how limited resources are generated and allocated across health care needs. The influence of global priority setting, such as through the formu­lation of overarching goals or normative guidelines for specific disease areas, is particularly significant in low- and middle-income countries that rely heavily on overseas development assistance. Because no sys­tematic approach exists for dealing with resource con­straints, however, which vary across countries, goals and guidance are often inappropriate for some country contexts; their implementation can, therefore, reduce the efficiency and equity of health care spending. The Working Group on Incorporating Economics and Modelling in Global Health Goals and Guidelines, co-convened by the Center for Global Development, Thanzi la Onse, and the HIV Modelling Consortium, has brought together disease specialists, policymakers, economists, and modelers from national governments, international organizations, and academic institutions across the globe to address these issues, to take stock of current approaches, and make recommendations for better practice. The Working Group deliberated on the roles and purposes of goals and guidelines and consid­ered how economic evidence might be formally incor­porated into policy recommendations and health care decision making. The target audiences for this report are international health institutions, large stakehold­ers in disease programs across the world, and national governments.
Topic:
Development, Health, Health Care Policy, and Public Health
Political Geography:
Global Focus

276. World Bank Financing to Support Refugees and Their Hosts: Recommendations for IDA19

Author:
Lauren Post, Cindy Huang, and Sarah Charles
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In its 18th replenishment of the International Development Association (IDA18, covering 2017–2020), the World Bank made a game-changing decision to create a US$2 billion financing window to support low-income countries hosting large numbers of refugees.[1] This financing is significant for two key reasons. First, in its scale and scope, the Refugee Sub-Window (RSW) is responsive to both the programmatic and policy needs of protracted refugee crises. Second, in supporting both refugees and their host communities, the RSW aligns refugee responses with host countries’ national development plans.
Topic:
Development, World Bank, Refugees, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

277. Transforming the Institutional Landscape in Sub-Saharan Africa: Considerations for Leveraging Africa’s Research Capacity to Achieve Socioeconomic Development

Author:
Alex Ezeh and Jessie Lu
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In order to achieve sustainable development outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), African institutions must be the leading experts on and primary providers of research solutions to local problems. Despite years of investment in capacity building, SSA lags behind every other region in terms of research outputs and government investments, and new models for building institutional capacity are needed. Through interviews with African institutional leaders and development partners working in SSA, this study finds that funding inefficiencies lead to key challenges within institutions’ governance and management structures, financial systems, talent management processes, leadership and institutional vision capacities, and peer support networks, all of which obstruct the ability of African institutions to become impactful and sustainable drivers of development outcomes in the region. We present for consideration three possible innovative models that can facilitate the emergence of strong Africa-based, Africa-led institutions: a multi-stakeholder funding platform, an integrator organization model, and a scale model.
Topic:
Development, Research, Sustainability, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

278. Jayathma Wickramanayake, UN Secretary-General's Envoy on Youth

Author:
Jayathma Wickramanayake
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
This World Leaders Forum program features an address by Jayathma Wickramanayake, the UN Secretary-General's Envoy on Youth, followed by a question and answer session with the audience.
Topic:
Development, Gender Issues, United Nations, Multilateral Relations, and Youth
Political Geography:
New York, United Nations, and Global Focus

279. Creative Destruction or Idiot Winds: Schumpeterian Theory Meets the Educational Sector in Developing Countries

Author:
Mark H. Moore
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This is one of a series of working papers from “RISE"—the large-scale education systems research programme supported by the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID), Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
Topic:
Development, Education, Governance, and Developing World
Political Geography:
Global Focus

280. When Do Development Projects Enhance Community Well-Being?

Author:
Michael Woolcock
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Many development agencies and governments now seek to engage directly with local communities, whether as a means to the realization of more familiar goals (infrastructure, healthcare, education) or as an end in itself (promoting greater inclusion, participation, well-being). These same agencies and governments, however, are also under increasing pressure to formally demonstrate that their actions ‘work’ and achieve their goals within relatively short timeframes – expectations which are, for the most part, necessary and desirable. But adequately assessing ‘community-driven’ approaches to development requires the deployment of theory and methods that accommodate their distinctive characteristics: building bridges is a qualitatively different task to building the rule of law and empowering minorities. Moreover, the ‘lessons’ inferred from average treatment effects derived from even the most rigorous assessments of community-driven interventions are likely to translate poorly to different contexts and scales of operation. Some guidance for anticipating and managing these conundrums are provided.
Topic:
Development, Government, Infrastructure, and International Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

281. Smart Development Banks

Author:
Eduardo Fernández-Arias, Ricardo Hausmann, and Ugo Panizza
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
The conventional paradigm about development banks is that these institutions exist to target well-identified market failures. However, market failures are not directly observable and can only be ascertained with a suitable learning process. Hence, the question is how do the policymakers know what activities should be promoted, how do they learn about the obstacles to the creation of new activities? Rather than assuming that the government has arrived at the right list of market failures and uses development banks to close some well-identified market gaps, we suggest that development banks can be in charge of identifying these market failures through their loan-screening and lending activities to guide their operations and provide critical inputs for the design of productive development policies. In fact, they can also identify government failures that stand in the way of development and call for needed public inputs. This intelligence role of development banks is similar to the role that modern theories of financial intermediation assign to banks as institutions with a comparative advantage in producing and processing information. However, while private banks focus on information on private returns, development banks would potentially produce and organize information about social returns.
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, Markets, and Banks
Political Geography:
Global Focus and Global Markets

282. Why Does Hirschmanian Development Remain Mired on the Margins? Because Implementation (and Reform) Really is 'a Long Voyage of Discovery'

Author:
Michael Woolcock
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
A defining task of development is enhancing a state’s capability for policy implementation. In most low- income countries, alas, such capabilities seem to be stagnant or declining, in no small part because dominant reform strategies are ill-suited to addressing complex non-technical aspects. This has been recognized for at least six decades – indeed, it was a centerpiece of Albert Hirschman’s understanding of the development process – yet this critique, and the significance of its implications, remain on the margins of scholarship and policy. Why? I consider three options, concluding that, paradoxically, followers of Hirschman’s approach inadequately appreciated that gaining more operational traction for their approach was itself a type of problem requiring their ideas to embark on ‘a long voyage of discovery’, a task best accomplished, in this instance, by building – and tapping into the distinctive insights of – a diverse community of development practitioners.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Developing World, and International Development
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

283. State Capacity and Demand for Identity: Evidence from Political Instability in Mali

Author:
Maxim Ananyev and Michael Poyker
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We demonstrate that civil conflict erodes self-identification with a nation-state even among non- rebellious ethnic groups in non-conflict areas. We perform a difference-in-difference estimation using Afrobarometer data. Using the onset of Tuareg-led insurgency in Mali caused by the demise of the Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi as an exogenous shock to state capacity, we find that residents living closer to the border with the conflict zone experienced a larger decrease in national identification. The effect was greater on people who were more exposed to local media. We hypothesize about the mechanism and show that civil conflict erodes national identity through the peoples’ perception of a state weakness.
Topic:
Development, Economics, State Formation, State Actors, State, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, and Mali

284. Cross-Border E-Commerce: WTO discussions and multi-stakeholder roles – stocktaking and practical ways forward

Author:
Michael Kende1 and Nivedita Sen
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
E-commerce has long been recognized as a driver of growth of the digital economy, with the potential to promote economic development. The benefits come from lower transaction costs online, increased efficiency, and access to new markets. The smallest of vendors can join online marketplaces to increase their sales, while larger companies can use the Internet to join global value chains (GVCs), and the largest e-commerce providers are now among the most valuable companies in the world.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Science and Technology, World Trade Organization, Digital Economy, Economic Growth, and Free Trade
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Switzerland, and Global Focus

285. Demand-Driven Youth Training Programs: Experimental Evidence from Mongolia

Author:
José Galdo, Bayarmaa Dalkhjavd, Altantsetseg Batchuluun, Soyolmaa Batbekh, and Maria Laura Alzúa
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Because of its high incidence and potential threat to social cohesion, youth unemployment is a global concern. This study uses a randomized controlled trial to analyze the effectiveness of a demand-driven vocational training program for disadvantaged youth in Mongolia. Mongolia, a transitional country whose economic structure shifted from a communist, centrally planned economy to a free-market economy over a relatively short period, offers a new setting in which to test the effectiveness of standard active labor market policies. This study reports positive and statistically significant short-term effects of vocational training on monthly earnings, skills matching, and self-employment. Substantial heterogeneity emerges as relatively older, richer, and better-educated individuals drive these positive effects. A second intervention that randomly assigns participants to receive repetitive weekly newsletters with information on market returns to vocational training shows positive impacts on the length of exposure to and successful completion of the program. These positive effects, however, are only observed at the intensive margin and do not lead to higher employment or earnings outcomes.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, Employment, Youth, and Labor Policies
Political Geography:
Mongolia and Asia

286. China and the World Bank: How Contrasting Development Approaches affect the Stability of African States

Author:
Kai Gehring, Lennart C. Kaplan, and Melvin H.L. Wong
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
China’s development model challenges the approaches of traditional Western donors like the World Bank. We argue that both aim at stability, but differ in the norms propagated to achieve that. Using fixed effects and IV estimations, we analyze a broad range of subnational stability measures in Africa. Aid by both the WB and China does not increase outright conflict nor any type of citizen protest, on average. Both even reduce outright conflict by governments against civilians. Still, Chinese aid is associated with more government repression and an increased acceptance of authoritarian norms, while WB projects strengthen democratic values.
Topic:
Development, International Political Economy, Political Economy, World Bank, and Developing World
Political Geography:
Africa and China

287. Infrastructure development in the Northeast: Hydropower, natural resources, legal and institutional frameworks and compliance

Author:
Manju Menon
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
In 2000, the central government declared Northeast India as India’s hydropower hub. Over 165 large dam projects were proposed to come up in the region. These projects were held as crucial to India’s energy and environmental security as well as the economic development of the country’s marginalised northeastern borderlands.However, nearly two decades on, this proposal to regulate the region's water resources remains unimplemented. In addition, the projects have generated a lot of public opposition in Arunachal Pradesh where most of these dams are supposed to be situated, and in the downstream Brahmaputra valley of Assam. This article will look into the government's hype and failure to construct hydropower dams in the Northeast region. It points to the need for a reflexive political decision on water resource management from the BJP-led governments in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and at the Centre.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Government, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

288. The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Capital Market Development in Botswana’s Economy

Author:
Koketso Molefhi
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock and bond markets development in Botswana using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-Bounds Test. The results indicate that macroeconomic variables have an impact on capital market development in Botswana. In the short run, real output, money supply and inflation have a positive influence on the development of the stock market, while real exchange rate retards its development. Real output further supports the development of the stock market in the long run. For the bond market, only two variables, inflation rate and lending rate have positive and negative impact on the bond market in the long run respectively, while none of the variables influence the bond market in the short run. Policy implications include increased efforts by policy makers to increase money supply, gross domestic product for the development of stock market, while the bond market development requires a decrease in lending rates.
Topic:
Development, Economy, Macroeconomics, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

289. Challenges of Project Implementation in Local Government: The Case of Francistown City Council and Kweneng District Council

Author:
Thabile A. Samboma
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
Botswana is faced with many challenges of project implementation. Since independence detailed projects and programmes were initiated, with limited and often less developed state capacity to implement them. This study focuses on challenges of project implementation in Botswana’s tier of local government. A qualitative case research method approach was employed to undertake the study. Telephonic interviews were conducted with politicians and employees from Francistown City Council (FCC) and Kweneng District Council (KDC) and data was analysed using thematic analysis. The paper outlines project implementation challenges in Local Authorities (LA). For instance, lack of capacity, lack of commitment by the District Development Committee (DDC), poor stakeholder engagement and lack of financial autonomy by councils. Some of the identified implementation challenges are not peculiar to the two LAs but cuts across local authorities in Botswana. However, low human capacity in local authorities was cited as a major problem in project implementation.
Topic:
Development, Government, Policy Implementation, and Authority
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

290. Implementing the Second National Plan of Action for Nutrition (NPAN-2): A 3M Governance Framework

Author:
Shanawez Hossain and Hasan Zaman
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:
Bangladesh made significant progress in improving the nutritional status of its people in recent years. However, rates of malnutrition in Bangladesh are still among the highest in the world; thus, the government has stepped up the implementation of its nutrition agenda and efforts to achieve its nutrition targets. The last Global Nutrition Report (GNR 2018) highlighted Bangladesh’s success as a result of the state-level nutrition-related policy commitments and efforts (Development Initiatives 2018). The GNR 2018 indicated Bangladesh’s achievements since 2010 in education, children, health, nutrition, and population, including measures in adolescent development, especially adolescent girls. The preceding GNR (2017) reported that the Government of Bangladesh had met its Nutrition for Growth (N4G) policy commitments (Development Initiatives 2017). Bangladesh recorded significant achievements under the N4G policy commitments through adopting the National Nutrition Policy (NNP) 2015 and National Strategy for Micronutrient Deficiency Control (ibid). The objective of this paper is to recommend ways to “jump-start” the collaborative process needed to translate the 3M approach into reality, using the NPG model.
Topic:
Development, Governance, and Nutrition
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

291. Marginal, Not Transformational: Development Finance Institutions and the Sustainable Development Goals

Author:
Charles Kenny
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Development finance institutions have positioned themselves as key agencies to help the world meet the Sustainable Development Goals. It is doubtful that they can deliver. This paper outlines the challenges facing DFIs in achieving (anywhere near) such an expansion in their impact, particularly in infrastructure and particularly in the poorest countries. It notes that private investment in SDG priority areas is low in the poorest countries, and the record of private investment in rolling out services is mixed. These issues are linked in part to significant supply side constraints based on country characteristics. DFIs do better than the market as a whole at investing in challenging infrastructure–but not by much. And while the scale of their ‘leverage’ in terms of attracting dollars that would otherwise not have been invested is hard to determine, in the poorest markets in infrastructure it is certainly low. Finally, DFIs and donors more broadly have long tried to improve deal flow with limited success, suggesting there are few deals on the margin of occurring which only require small extra incentives to materialize.
Topic:
Development, Finance, Institutions, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

292. Teacher Professional Development around the World: The Gap between Evidence and Practice

Author:
Anna Popova, David Evans, Mary E. Breeding, and Violeta Arancibia
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Many teachers in low- and middle-income countries lack the skills to teach effectively, and professional development (PD) programs are the principal tool that governments use to upgrade those skills. At the same time, few PD programs are evaluated, and those that are evaluated show highly varying results. In this paper, we propose a set of indicators—the In-Service Teacher Training Survey Instrument—to standardize reporting on teacher PD programs. Applying the instrument to 33 rigorously evaluated PD programs, we find that programs that link participation to career incentives, have a specific subject focus, incorporate lesson enactment in the training, and include initial face-to-face training tend to show higher student learning gains. In qualitative interviews, program implementers also report follow-up visits as among the most effective characteristics of their professional development programs. We then use the instrument to present novel data on a sample of 139 government-funded, at-scale professional development programs across 14 countries. The attributes of most at-scale teacher professional development programs differ sharply from those of programs that evidence suggests are effective, with fewer incentives to participate in PD, fewer opportunities to practice new skills, and less follow-up once teachers return to their classrooms.
Topic:
Development, Education, Labor Issues, Academia, and Teaching
Political Geography:
Global Focus

293. Multilingual Assessment of Early Child Development: Analyses from Repeated Observations of Children in Kenya

Author:
Heather A. Knauer, Patricia Kariger, Pamela Jakiela, Owen Ozier, and Lia C.H. Fernald
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In many low- and middle-income countries, young children learn a mother tongue or indigenous language at home before entering the formal education system where they will need to understand and speak a country’s official language(s). Thus, assessments of children before school age, conducted in a nation’s official language, may not fully reflect a child’s development, underscoring the importance of test translation and adaptation. To examine differences in vocabulary development by language of assessment, we adapted and validated instruments to measure developmental outcomes, including expressive and receptive vocabulary. We assessed 505 2-to-6- year-old children in rural communities in Western Kenya with comparable vocabulary tests in three languages: Luo (the local language or mother tongue), Swahili, and English (official languages) at two time points, 5–6 weeks apart, between September 2015 and October 2016. Younger children responded to the expressive vocabulary measure exclusively in Luo (44–59% of 2-to-4-year-olds) much more frequently than did older children (20–21% of 5-to-6-year-olds). Baseline receptive vocabulary scores in Luo (β = 0.26, SE = 0.05, p < 0.001) and Swahili (β = 0.10, SE = 0.05, p = 0.032) were strongly associated with receptive vocabulary in English at follow-up, even after controlling for English vocabulary at baseline. Parental Luo literacy at baseline (β = 0.11, SE = 0.05, p = 0.045) was associated with child English vocabulary at follow-up, while parental English literacy at baseline was not. Our findings suggest that multilingual testing is essential to understanding the developmental environment and cognitive growth of multilingual children.
Topic:
Development, Children, Linguistics, and Language
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

294. What Is “Country Ownership”? A Formal Exploration of the Aid Relationship

Author:
William Savedoff
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The aid literature and high-level accords like the Paris Declaration argue that “country ownership” is critical to the effectiveness of aid. In response, donors and recipients renamed themselves “development partners,” obscuring the tendency for country ownership benefits (i.e. more successful and sustainable programs) to come at the expense of satisfying the funding countries’ priorities. This paper illustrates the tradeoff between country ownership and funders’ priorities with a formal model in which aid is governed by a contract to produce a jointly desired outcome. The model generalizes the Principal-Agent approaches for studying aid which treat countries as having multiple objectives. The new model illustrates how a recipient country’s rational resource allocation choices vary with different aid contracts, whether based on lump sum payments, input-based payments, conditional payments, matching grants or outcome payments. It reveals two critical aspects of the country ownership debate. First, even when funders and recipients agree on project goals, funders can only achieve their priorities through distorting domestic allocative choices. Second, funders are likely to fully embrace country ownership only in cases where they believe alternative uses of domestic funds have integrity (as defined by the funder). The model also shows that when funders put higher priority on achieving their goals than accommodating recipient allocation preferences, they should prefer conditional payments, matching grants, or outcome payments. Among these, the donor’s preferences would depend on the relative observability of expenditures to outcomes. If instead funders embrace country ownership and seek to maximize the country’s welfare, lump sum grants are better. In terms of Paris Declaration goals of sustainability, the aid contracts which are least aligned with recipient country priorities will not be sustained after aid ends unless domestic preferences are altered by a process of hysteresis.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Global Focus

295. Climate Change, Chemical Fertilisers and Sustainable Development – Panel Evidence from Tanzanian Maize Farmers

Author:
Christiane Heisse and Risa Morimoto
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
We study the impact of rainfall risk on fertiliser use by Tanzanian maize farmers using newly available spatially disaggregated agronomic survey data on Tanzanian maize producers. We show that fertiliser use is highly sensitive to rainfall risks. Our discussion embeds these findings into the wider debate around environmental sustainability and mineral fertilisers, thus relating directly to the country’s government efforts of climate mainstreaming into their (agricultural) policies. We conclude that chemical fertilisers are useful for agricultural productivity growth but that they should be used to supplement more economically and environmentally sustainable practices.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Environment, Sustainability, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

296. Determinants of Developing Countries' Export Upgrading: The Role of China and Productive Investment

Author:
Dic Lo and Yue Teng
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper explores the determinants of developing countries' export upgrading measured by export sophistication. In particular, as a response to the recent debate on China's impact on developing countries' industrialisation, we examine a new hypothesis that the considerable growth in developing countries' trade with China may serve as a source of productive investment for their export upgrading. Dynamic panel estimations based on HS 6-digit export data on 62 developing countries during 1995-2014 show the positive effects of human capital, productive investment, and absolute gains from trade with China measured by income terms of trade vis-à-vis China. Mediation analysis finds that the positive effect of trade with China on export upgrading takes effect largely through its enhancing effect on productive investment, which supports our hypothesis. By contrast, China's direct export-downgrading impact is minor. Our findings suggest that, for developing countries, China serves more as a stimulator of capital accumulation for industrial development than a competitor in manufacturing market or a predator of natural resources. This provides an alternative to the widespread argument of China's crowding-out and re- primarisation impact on developing countries. The priority for developing countries is therefore the appropriate use of the gains from trade for productive purposes.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Investment, Exports, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
China and Asia

297. Tourism as a Mechanism in Reducing Income Inequality in Developing Economies

Author:
D. Tan and Risa Morimoto
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Although numerous studies have investigated the contribution of tourism to economic growth and development, much less attention has been paid to assessing whether tourism-induced growth and development contribute to the poverty alleviation and income inequality (Kinyondo & Pelizzo, 2015). This study emamines the statistical relationship between tourism activities and a suite of income inequality measures. Using a dynamic fixed country-level effects panel model and bootstrapped standard errors, we find strong evidence showing both tourism dollars and inbound tourism numbers have an adverse effect ion income equality. These findings are supported by the results of the fixed-effects panel and dynamic pooled OLS regressions. The results of this study suggest that more effort should be exerted to develop pro-poor tourism initiatives in order to mitigate the inequitable distribution of the benefits of tourism as well as to reduce possible environmental degradation caused by rural poverty.
Topic:
Development, Tourism, Inequality, Income Inequality, Economic Theory, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

298. Unemployment in the SADC Region

Author:
Johanne Motsatsi
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The objective of this study is to estimate the determinants of unemployment in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region using annual data from 2000 to 2016. Given the characteristic of the data, the study adopts Fixed Effect (FE) estimation technique. For further analysis, the study also estimated the ARDL panel model to capture persistence effect of unemployment in the region. The FE results reveals that real GDP, foreign direct investment, consumer price index, credit to the private sector and interest rate are negatively related to unemployment. While trade openness, labour productivity and population have a positive sign. The results estimated with ARDL model are not very different from those of FE model, but we obtained a noticeably smaller estimates for ARDL model. Variables which have negative association with unemployment suggest that they are likely to reduce unemployment. Therefore, such indicators may be of interest to policy makers when formulating unemployment reduction strategies. In terms of policy advise, the study recommends the government of SADC member states to encourage the education system that can equip leaners with entrepreneurial skills and in-job practical skills, in order to promote high success rate of SMMEs as well as to provide skills needed in the labour market. It also recommended enforcement of free trade of goods and services in the region as a means of making the industrial sector an engine of economic growth in order to create much needed employment.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, Labor Policies, Macroeconomics, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

299. Impacts of Access to ICTs on Employment Status in Botswana

Author:
Masedi K. Tshukudu
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
It is clear that technology has brought about significant changes in the livelihoods of people, creating new forms of employment and advancing the traditional forms of employment for individuals. Many countries continue to invest in Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) with the view to tackling some of the economic challenges such as unemployment. Botswana like other African countries has made annual budgetary allocations towards ICT Infrastructure. Despite, the Government’s efforts to invest and improve access to ICT, the country still faces a high unemployment rate, particularly for the youth. This study therefore, investigates the impact that access to ICTs has on the employment of individuals in Botswana. In order to provide a detailed analysis of the impact of ICTs on employment we apply a probit model for binary choice responses to being employed or not being employed, using the data from the 2014 Botswana Household Access and Individual use of Information Communication Technology Survey carried out by the Statistics Botswana. The empirical results provide evidence that access to ICTs collectively has a positive impact on employment in Botswana. However, disaggregating the ICTs forms presents slightly different results, e-skill training and access to the internet in Botswana are not significant in explaining an individual’s employment status, this may be associated with low uptake of internet and ICTs skills by individuals in Botswana. The policy message from this study is that there is a need for aggressive implementation of collective ICT. [In addition, there is need to improve collective ICTs infrastructure to create more employment].
Topic:
Development, Economics, Science and Technology, Communications, Information Age, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

300. A debate with the Kurdistan Region’s President

Author:
Middle East Research Institute
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
This timely session was dedicated to a debate with the President of Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) to discuss central geo-political and domestic developments, including the protests and the crisis of governance in Baghdad; the Turkish invasion of Northern Syria (particularly Rojava); and finally, the effects of internal political fissures within the KRI.
Topic:
Development, Governance, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Baghdad, Syria, and Kurdistan