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Begin New Search Topic International Trade and Finance Political Geography United States Content Type Working Paper

101. Andean-U.S. Dialogue Forum: Toward a Common Agenda for the Andean Countries and the United States

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
An opening product of the Andean-U.S. Dialogue Forum, this report is intended to spur conversations on more effective cooperation by identifying convergences and divergences in priorities among the countries and the citizens of Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia and the United States. It seeks to open the door to a better understanding of the internal dynamics in each country and to reduce stereotypes that impede cooperation to resolve mutual challenges. This report highlights the transnational issues of energy, climate change, trade, and illegal drugs, recognizing that beneficial progress will demand a collective response from all.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and War on Drugs
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, Latin America, Venezuela, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia

102. China and the United States: Core Interests, Common Interests, and Partnership

Author:
Wu Xinbo
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In an era of increased economic interdependence and shared security issues, it is vital that China and the United States become genuine partners, based not on shared ideology or traditional geopolitical interests, but on the needs of global governance. This, however, requires both countries to respect the other's legitimate core interests; if they do not, the resulting distrust and misinterpretation of intentions make cooperation less likely. To date, China has emphasized protection of its core interests, while the United States has emphasized developing areas of common interest while maintaining its expansive approach to foreign policy. This difference in emphasis has set up both areas of friction and possibilities for greater interaction. China's interests in Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang lies at the heart of its national security concerns and their management is considered fundamental to the country's survival and development. As China has declared, continuing U.S. involvement with these issues is viewed as a challenge to China's core interests. If the United States eases its policies toward China's core interests, this could, in turn, encourage China to respect U.S. core interests and foster cooperation as China's material power and international influence are both growing. Developing common interests, meanwhile, can create more momentum for the two countries to manage and resolve their differences. Potential areas for successful cooperation include building a permanent peace mechanism on the Korean Peninsula; helping to secure strong, sustainable, and balanced global economic growth; and bringing about a global arrangement on creating an international environmental regime.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, and Sinai Peninsula

103. The Battle of Dubai: The United Arab Emirates and the U.S.-Iran Cold War

Author:
Karim Sadjadpour
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As the United States seeks to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions through economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has come to play a critical yet often ambiguous role. The UAE, namely the emirate of Dubai, is a top source of Iranian imports and a key transshipment point for goods-legal and illegal-destined for the Islamic Republic. Dubai's bustling and loosely regulated ports have repeatedly frustrated international sanctions against Iran.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Dubai

104. Looking for Help: Will Rising Democracies Become International Democracy Supporters?

Author:
Thomas Carothers and Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The emergence of a multipolar world gives Western democracy advocates cause for both optimism and anxiety. China's success sparks fears of the spread of an autocratic development model. Yet democratic states such as Brazil, Indonesia, India, South Africa, and Turkey are also gaining ground. These countries serve as powerful examples of the universal appeal of democracy and possess unique experiences with democratization. The United States and Europe understandably hope that rising democracies will use their growing prominence to defend democratic values abroad, potentially revitalizing international democracy support.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Human Rights, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Indonesia, Turkey, India, South Africa, and Brazil

105. Foreign Manufacturing Multinationals and the Transformation of the Chinese Economy: New Measurements, New Perspectives

Author:
Theodore H. Moran
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
What is the relationship between foreign manufacturing multinational corporations (MNCs) and the expansion of indigenous technological and managerial technological capabilities among Chinese firms? China has been remarkably successful in designing industrial policies, joint venture requirements, and technology transfer pressures to use FDI to create indigenous national champions in a handful of prominent sectors: high speed rail transport, information technology, auto assembly, and an emerging civil aviation sector. But what is striking in the aggregate data is how relatively thin the layer of horizontal and vertical spillovers from foreign manufacturing multinationals to indigenous Chinese firms has proven to be. Despite the large size of manufacturing FDI inflows, the impact of multinational corporate investment in China has been largely confined to building plants that incorporate capital, technology, and managerial expertise controlled by the foreigner. As the skill-intensity of exports increases, the percentage of the value of the final product that derives from imported components rises sharply. China has remained a low value-added assembler of more sophisticated inputs imported from abroad—a “workbench” economy. Where do the gains from FDI in China end up? While manufacturing MNCs may build plants in China, the largest impact from deployment of worldwide earnings is to bolster production, employment, R, and local purchases in their home markets. For the United States the most recent data show that US-headquartered MNCs have 70 percent of their operations, make 89 percent of their purchases, spend 87 percent of their R dollars, and locate more than half of their workforce within the US economy—this is where most of the earnings from FDI in China are delivered.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Israel

106. The Liquidation of Government Debt

Author:
Carmen M. Reinhart
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Historically, periods of high indebtedness have been associated with a rising incidence of default or restructuring of public and private debts. A subtle type of debt restructuring takes the form of "financial repression." Financial repression includes directed lending to government by captive domestic audiences (such as pension funds), explicit or implicit caps on interest rates, regulation of cross-border capital movements, and (generally) a tighter connection between government and banks. In this paper, the authors describe some of the regulatory measures and policy actions that characterized the heyday of the financial repression era. In the heavily regulated financial markets of the Bretton Woods system, several restrictions facilitated a sharp and rapid reduction in public debt/GDP ratios from the late 1940s to the 1970s. Low nominal interest rates help reduce debt servicing costs while a high incidence of negative real interest rates liquidates or erodes the real value of government debt. Thus, financial repression is most successful in liquidating debts when accompanied by a steady dose of inflation. Inflation need not take market participants entirely by surprise and, in effect, it need not be very high (by historical standards). For the advanced economies in Reinhart and Sbrancia's sample, real interest rates were negative roughly half of the time during 1945–80. For the United States and the United Kingdom, their estimates of the annual liquidation of debt via negative real interest rates amounted on average to 3 to 4 percent of GDP a year. For Australia and Italy, which recorded higher inflation rates, the liquidation effect was larger (around 5 percent per annum).
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

107. Capital Inadequacies: The Dismal Failure of the Basel Regime of Bank Capital Regulation

Author:
Kevin Dowd, Martin Hutchinson, Jimi Hinchliffe, and Simon Ashby
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The Basel regime is an international system of capital adequacy regulation designed to strengthen banks' financial health and the safety and soundness of the financial system as a whole. It originated with the 1988 Basel Accord, now known as Basel I, and was then overhauled. Basel II had still not been implemented in the United States when the financial crisis struck, and in the wake of the banking system collapse, regulators rushed out Basel III.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

108. U.S. Trade and Investment Policy

Author:
Matthew J. Slaughter, Edward Alden, Andrew H. Card, and Thomas A. Daschle
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The growth of global trade and investment has brought significant benefits to the United States and to the rest of the world. Freer trade and investment, facilitated by rules the United States led in negotiating and implementing, have alleviated poverty, raised average standards of living, and discouraged conflict.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

109. Partners in Preventive Action: The United States and International Institutions

Author:
Paul B. Stares and Micah Zenko
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
With the U.S. military overstretched after a decade of continuous combat operations and Washington facing acute fiscal pressures, the strategic logic of preventive action to reduce the number of foreign crises and conflicts that could embroil the United States in burdensome new commitments has never been more compelling.
Topic:
Globalization, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, and Southeast Asia

110. Managing Instability on China's Periphery

Author:
Daniel Markey, Paul B. Stares, Evan A. Feigenbaum, Scott A. Snyder, John W. Vessey, and Joshua Kurlantzick
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
If past experience is any guide, the United States and China will find themselves embroiled in a serious crisis at some point in the future. Such crises have occurred with some regularity in recent years, and often with little or no warning. Relatively recent examples include the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1996, the accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999, and the EP-3 reconnaissance plane incident in 2001, as well as several minor naval skirmishes since then. The ensuing tension has typically dissipated without major or lasting harm to U.S.-China relations. With China's rise as a global power, however, the next major crisis is likely to be freighted with greater significance for the relationship than in previous instances. Policymakers in both Washington and Beijing, not to mention their respective publics, have become more sensitive to each other's moves and intentions as the balance of power has shifted in recent years. As anxieties and uncertainties have grown, the level of mutual trust has inevitably diminished. How the two countries manage a future crisis or string of crises, therefore, could have profound and prolonged consequences for the U.S.-China relationship. Given the importance of this relationship to not only the future evolution of the Asia-Pacific region but also to the management of a host of international challenges, the stakes could not be higher.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, and Asia

111. The G20: Engine of Asian Regionalism?

Author:
Hugo Dobson
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
As a result of the emergence of the G20 as the self‐appointed “premier forum for international economic cooperation”, Asia's expanded participation in G‐summitry has attracted considerable attention. As original G7 member Japan is joined by Australia, China, Indonesia, India and South Korea, this has given rise to another alphanumeric configuration of the Asian 6 (A6). Resulting expectations are that membership in the G20 will impact Asian regionalism as the A6 are forced into coordination and cooperation in response to the G20's agenda and commitments. However, by highlighting the concrete behaviours and motivations of the individual A6 in the G20 summits so far, this paper stands in contrast to the majority of the predominantly normative extant literature. It highlights divergent agendas amongst the A6 as regards the future of the G20 and discusses the high degree of competition over their identities and roles therein. This divergence and competition can be seen across a range of other behaviours including responding to the norm of internationalism in promoting global governance and maintaining the status quo and national interest, in addition to claiming a regional leadership role and managing bilateral relationships with the US.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Indonesia, India, Asia, South Korea, and Australia

112. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment

Author:
Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer, and Fan Zhai
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Two emerging tracks of trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific—one based on the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and an Asian track—could consolidate the “noodle bowl” of current smaller agreements and provide pathways to a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We examine the benefits and strategic incentives generated by these tracks over 2010-2025. The effects on the world economy would be small initially but by 2025 the annual welfare gains would rise to $104 billion on the TPP track, $303 billion on both tracks, and $862 billion with an FTAAP. The tracks will be competitive but their strategic implications are constructive: each would generate incentives for enlargement. Over time, strong economic incentives would emerge for the United States and China to consolidate the tracks into a region-wide agreement. Each track would bring a different template to such consolidation and can be viewed as defining a “disagreement point” in the Asia-Pacific bargaining game. The study is based on an analysis of 48 actual and proposed Asia-Pacific trade agreements and models impacts on variables including sectoral trade, output, employment and job shifts in 24 world regions.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific

113. A Pragmatic Ideal for Global Economic Governance Reform

Author:
Barry Herman
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper asks how the world of sovereign countries should arrange itself to address global and international economic, financial, social or environmental problems. The current system of institutions and arrangements, informally led by the Group of 20, as convoked by the United States, is hardly ideal. The paper proposes a “pragmatic” alternative with multiple checks and balances, but able to reach timely and effective decisions on the full range of international policy issues. The paper concludes noting that dissatisfaction with current arrangements has reopened intergovernmental debate; it is not the same as undertaking reform, but it is a start.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

114. Saudi Arabia in the New Middle East

Author:
F. Gregory Gause III
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
There is arguably no more unlikely U.S. ally than Saudi Arabia: monarchical, deeply conservative socially, promoter of an austere and intolerant version of Islam, birthplace of Osama bin Laden and fifteen of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers. Consequently, there is no U.S. ally less well understood. Many U.S. policymakers assume that the Saudi regime is fragile, despite its remarkable record of domestic stability in the turbulent Middle East. “It is an unstable country in an unstable region,” one congressional staffer said in July 2011. Yet it is the Arab country least affected in its domestic politics by the Arab upheavals of 2011. Many who think it is unstable domestically also paradoxically attribute enormous power to it, to the extent that they depict it as leading a “counterrevolution” against those upheavals throughout the region. 2 One wonders just how “counterrevolutionary” the Saudis are when they have supported the NATO campaign against Muammar al-Qaddafi, successfully negotiated the transfer of power from Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, and condemned the crackdown on protestors by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, and how powerful they are when they could do little to help their ally Hosni Mubarak in Egypt.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Islam, Oil, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

115. China and Global Mega Trade Deals

Author:
John Whalley, Chunding Li, and Jing Wang
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The term "mega deal" has been widely used in relation to two large prospective trade deals between the United States and Europe – the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) — and in Asia and the Pacific — the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). This paper starts by exploring a possible description of trade mega deals by making an inventory of mega deals in place, under discussion or negotiation, and deals yet to be considered under different criteria. This paper also calculates the trade volume coverage and trade barrier coverage for potential mega deals, and the results show the potential impact of mega deals on trade and growth performance is large.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Asia

116. U.S.-Mexico Homeland Defense: A Compatible Interface

Author:
Victor E. Renuart, Jr. and Biff Baker
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The United States and Mexico share a common history shaped by military incursions during the 19th and early 20th centuries. The bond between the American and Mexican people, however, has continued to grow closer over time despite occasional negative rhetoric from politicians in Washington, DC, and Mexico City. At local and state levels, relations solidified through the closely knit fabric of our border towns, intermarriage between families on each side of the border, and the development of infrastructure (to include water, wastewater, and gas and electricity utilities) that serves communities to the north and south. At the national level, our relationship became closer due to economic growth resulting from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which now accounts for almost $1 billion (U.S. dollars) in trade per day between the two countries.
Topic:
Security, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, America, Washington, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

117. Wholesalers and Retailers in US Trade

Author:
J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, Peter K. Schott, and Stephen J. Redding
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
International trade models typically assume that producers in one country trade directly with final consumers in another. In reality, of course, trade can involve long chains of potentially independent actors who move goods through wholesale and retail distribution networks. These networks likely affect the magnitude and nature of trade frictions and hence both the pattern of trade and its welfare gains. To promote further understanding of the means by which goods move across borders, this paper examines the extent to which US exports and imports flow through wholesalers and retailers versus producing and consuming firms.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

118. Do Developed and Developing Countries Compete Head to Head in High Tech?

Author:
Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Concerns that growth in developing countries could worsen the US terms of trade and that increased US trade with developing countries will increase US wage inequality both implicitly reflect the assumption that goods produced in the United States and developing countries are close substitutes and that specialization is incomplete. In this paper we show on the contrary that there are distinctive patterns of international specialization and that developed and developing countries export fundamentally different products, especially those classified as high tech. Judged by export shares, the United States and developing countries specialize in quite different product categories that, for the most part, do not overlap. Moreover, even when exports are classified in the same category, there are large and systematic differences in unit values that suggest the products made by developed and developing countries are not very close substitutes—developed country products are far more sophisticated.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States

119. The Margins of US Trade

Author:
J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, Peter K. Schott, and Stephen J. Redding
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Recent research in international trade emphasizes the importance of firms' extensive margins for understanding overall patterns of trade as well as how firms respond to specific events such as trade liberalization. In this paper, we use detailed US trade statistics to provide a broad overview of how the margins of trade contribute to variation in US imports and exports across trading partners, types of trade (i.e., arm's length versus related party) and both short and long time horizons. Among other results, we highlight the differential behavior of related-party and arm's-length trade in response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

120. Intra-Firm Trade and Product Contractibility

Author:
J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, Peter K. Schott, and Stephen J. Redding
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines the determinants of intra-firm trade in US imports using detailed country-product data. We create a new measure of product contractibility based on the degree of intermediation in international trade for the product. We find important roles for the interaction of country and product characteristics in determining intra-firm trade shares. Intra-firm trade is high for products with low levels of contractibility sourced from countries with weak governance, for skill-intensive products from skill-scarce countries, and for capital-intensive products from capital-abundant countries.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

121. Innovation and the Visible Hand: China, Indigenous Innovation, and the Role of Government Procurement

Author:
Nathaniel Ahrens
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Indigenous innovation has become the greatest immediate source of economic friction between the United States and China. This trend is not unique to these two countries; policy makers globally are actively trying to stimulate domestic innovation. The burgeoning markets for biotech and environment-related products and services and, potentially even more important, countries' efforts to emerge from the global economic slowdown all reinforce this trend. Mindful of this global scene, China has made indigenous innovation one of the core elements of its attempt to make a structural shift up the industrial value chain.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States and China

122. The Transatlantic Economy 2010: Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Europe

Author:
Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
Despite the recession, the United States and Europe remain each other's most important foreign commercial markets. No other commercial artery in the world is as integrated and fused as the transatlantic economy. We estimate that the transatlantic economy continues to generate close to $4.28 trillion in total commercial sales a year and employs up to 14 million workers in mutually “onshored” jobs on both sides of the Atlantic.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

123. Dilemmas of Brazilian Grand Strategy

Author:
Hal Brands
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
This monograph analyzes Brazilian grand strategy under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. During Lula's nearly 8 years in office, he has pursued a multipronged grand strategy aimed at hastening the transition from unipolarity and Western economic hegemony to a multipolar order in which international rules, norms, and institutions are more favorable to Brazilian interests. Lula has done so by emphasizing three diplomatic strategies: soft balancing against the United States, building coalitions to magnify Brazilian negotiating power, and seeking to position Brazil as the leader of a more united South America.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Brazil, South America, and Latin America

124. Does Profit-Seeking Rule Out Love? Evidence (or Not) from Economics and Law

Author:
Julie A. Nelson
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Many believe that firms are driven to maximize profits, and therefore are not allowed to take actions that would benefit their workers, communities, or the environment if these actions would reduce profits even slightly. This essay shows that this belief is supported neither by sound economic evidence and arguments, nor by United States statutory and case law. The roots of this belief are, instead, to be found in a centuries-old desire of economists to make our discipline look like Newtonian physics. Among scholars of law, both misinformation and the use of University of Chicago-style economics have contributed to the belief's popularity. Among scholars and the public alike, the dualistic "love or money" view is appealing because of its simplicity and congruence with cultural gender norms. Reexamining the evidence, rather than adhering to common ideologies, this essay offers an unconventional analysis of corporate behavior and commodification.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Law
Political Geography:
United States and Chicago

125. Trade Disputes Between China and the United States: Growing Pains so Far, Worse Ahead?

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jared C. Woollacott
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This study covers the history of Sino-US trade relations with a particular focus on the past decade, during which time each has been a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Providing a brief history of 19th and 20th century economic relations, this paper examines in detail the trade disputes that have arisen between China and the United States over the past decade, giving dollar estimates for the trade flows at issue. Each country has partaken in their share of protectionist measures, however, US measures have been characteristically defensive, protecting declining industries, while Chinese measures have been characteristically offensive, promoting nascent industries. We also cover administrative and legislation actions within each country that have yet to be the subject of formal complaint at the WTO. This includes an original and comprehensive quantitative summary of US Section 337 intellectual property rights cases. While we view the frictions in Sino-US trade a logical consequence of the rapid increase in flows between the two countries, we caution that each country work within the WTO framework and respect any adverse decisions it delivers so that a protracted protectionist conflict does not emerge. We see the current currency battle as one potential catalyst for such conflict if US and Chinese policymakers fail to manage it judiciously.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States and China

126. Status, Identity, and Rising Powers

Author:
Deborah Welch Larson and Alexei Shevchenko
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
In the current era, the most striking development is the appearance of rising powers. These include Brazil, Russia, India, and China but also South Africa, Mexico, and South Korea. No longer can a small group of advanced states, the Group of Seven (G-7), manage the world economy. The G-7 has for all practical purposes been replaced by the G-20, which includes China, India, South Korea, Indonesia, and Australia. The emerging powers in Asia account for a growing share of the world's global domestic product. These powers are spending more on their military—India already has an aircraft carrier and plans to procure two more. China's growing navy is a major concern to the United States military.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, India, South Korea, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico

127. Regional Trade Blocs: The Way to the Future?

Author:
Alejandro Foxley
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
While middle-income countries have pursued regional trade agreements since the 1960s, these ties are becoming more important as the global economic crisis curtails demand from the United States and other major markets. With the Doha Round of multilateral trade talks stalled, regional trade agreements (RTAs) offer an alternative approach to increase trade, spur stronger economic growth, and lower unemployment rates in participating countries.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and Latin America

128. Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis

Author:
Steven Dunaway
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The current economic and financial crisis has brought about a significant change in global economic governance as the international forum for discussions on the crisis has shifted from the small group of advanced countries in the Group of Seven (G7) to the Group of Twenty (G20), a broader group including important emerging market countries. The G20 summit held in Washington, DC, on November 15, 2008, dealt with the immediate concerns fostered by the crisis and focused on both macroeconomic policy actions needed to support global growth and ideas for implementing financial market reforms. Follow-up G20 summits are expected, starting with a gathering in the United Kingdom in April 2009. However, for these discussions to have a substantial impact, the agenda will have to be broadened beyond economic stimulus and financial market regulation. If not, global policymakers will miss a critical chance to make the world economy and financial markets more stable, as then U.S. treasury secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. pointed out: If we only address particular regulatory issues—as critical as they are—without addressing the global imbalances that fueled recent excesses, we will have missed an opportunity to dramatically improve the foundation for global markets and economic vitality going forward. The pressure from global imbalances will simply build up again until it finds another outlet.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and China

129. China's $1.7 Trillion Bet: China's External Portfolio and Dollar Reserves

Author:
Brad W. Setser and Arpana Pandey
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
China reported $1.95 trillion in foreign exchange reserves at the end of 2008. This is by far the largest stockpile of foreign exchange in the world: China holds roughly two times more reserves than Japan, and four times more than either Russia or Saudi Arabia. Moreover, China's true foreign port- folio exceeds its disclosed foreign exchange reserves. At the end of December, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE)—part of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) managed close to $2.1 trillion: $1.95 trillion in formal reserves and between $108 and $158 billion in “other foreign assets.” China's state banks and the China Investment Corporation (CIC), China's sovereign wealth fund, together manage another $250 billion or so. This puts China's total holdings of foreign assets at over $2.3 trillion. That is over 50 percent of China's gross domestic product (GDP), or roughly $2,000 per Chinese inhabitant.
Topic:
International Relations, Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Israel, Asia, and Saudi Arabia

130. Financial Crisis and Public Policy

Author:
Jagadeesh Gokhale
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
This Policy Analysis explains the antecedents of the current global financial crisis and critically examines the reasoning behind the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve's actions to prop up the financial sector. It argues that recovery from the financial crisis is likely to be slow with or without the government's bailout actions. An oil price spike and a wealth shock in housing initiated the financial crisis. Declines in stock values are intensifying that shock, threatening to deepen the current recession as U.S. consumers and investors cut their expenditures. An offsetting wealth injection from additional risk-bearing investors could initiate a quicker recovery. Thus, supporters of government intervention justify the bailout's debt-financed fund injections—in essence, they want to compel future taxpayers to join the group of today's risk bearing investors.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

131. The Transatlantic Economy 2009

Author:
Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
After a five-year boom in prosperity, the transatlantic economy has fallen into what could be perhaps its deepest recession since World War II. Although the U.S. was the epicenter of the financial crisis, many European banks have exposure to U.S. subprime loans and embraced the risky lending practices of their American counterparts. The financial crisis and attendant recession underscore the deep integration of the transatlantic economy. Notions of “decoupling” are mistaken and are likely to lead to serious policy errors. Never before have Europeans and Americans had a greater stake in each other's economic success. Each has a substantial interest in the other's ability to weather current difficulties and to emerge in sound shape from the crisis.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

132. The Outlook for Tokyo: New Opportunities or Long-term Decline for Japan's Financial Sector?

Author:
Vanessa Rossi
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Japan's economy has suffered exceptional damage because of its high level of exposure to the massive downturn in world trade and investment, notably impacting on demand for cars, consumer electronics and investment equipment. The depth of Japan's recession looks set to be far worse than that of the US and the EU. However, the recession has also radically reshaped the global financial environment in ways that suggest unexpected opportunities for Japanese financial institutions and markets. This report reviews the outlook for Tokyo as a financial centre and the role of Japan's financial sector in the light of domestic targets as well as international trends and competition.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Europe, Israel, Asia, and Tokyo

133. Policy Liberalization and US Merchandise Trade Growth, 1980-2006

Author:
Matthew Adler and Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This working paper draws on historical and contemporary data on tariffs, nontariff barriers, and transportation costs (for the United States and its major trading partners) to estimate the role of policy liberalization in US merchandise trade growth over the period 1980 to 2006. Both partial equilibrium analysis and computable general equilibrium analysis are used to make the estimates. Both methods indicate that roughly 25 percent of US trade growth since 1980 can be attributed to policy liberalization. Policy liberalization plays a larger role in US export growth (35 to 40 percent) than US import growth (25 percent). According to these estimates, policy liberalization accounts for almost all US merchandise growth in excess of growth that can be explained by expanding GDP in the United States and abroad.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

134. The National Interest and the Law of the Sea

Author:
Scott G. Borgerson
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea—the instrument that created the overarching governance framework for nearly three-quarters of the earth's surface and what lies above and beneath it—has been signed and ratified by 156 countries and the European Community, but not by the United States. The Law of the Sea Convention, with annexes (hereafter in this report referred to as the “convention”), and the 1994 agreement on its implementation have been in force for more than a decade, but while the United States treats most parts of the convention as customary international law, it remains among only a handful of countries—and one of an even smaller number with coastlines, including Syria, North Korea, and Iran—to have signed but not yet acceded to the treaty.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Law, International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:
United States, North Korea, and Syria

135. China's $1.5 Trillion Bet: Understanding China's External Portfolio

Author:
Brad W. Setser and Arpana Pandey
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
This paper was originally published in January 2009. The May update incorporates quarter one 2009 data on China's foreign reserves, the Treasury International Capital (TIC) capital flows data for December, January, and February, and the results of the June 2008 survey of foreign portfolio investment in the United States. The June 2008 survey indicated that China bought fewer Treasury bonds and more equities than the authors estimated in the January paper.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and China

136. Wall Street/Main Street: The Challenge of Building Financial Security in the Obama Era

Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The last 18 months have dealt a devastating blow to Americans' sense of financial security. Few have been untouched by the financial crisis. For many, wealth accumulated over years of saving and investing has disappeared almost overnight. For many more, the economic crisis has imperiled their jobs, their ability to provide for their families, and their optimism about the future.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and America

137. The United States and the Asia-Pacific Region: National Interests and Strategic Imperatives

Author:
James J. Przystup
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
From its earliest days, the United States has been engaged in trade with East Asia. In February 1784, the Empress of China left New York harbor, sailing east to China, arriving at Macau on the China coast in August of that year. The ship returned to the United States the following May with a consignment of Chinese goods, which generated a profit of $30,000. In 1844, China granted the United States trading rights in the Treaty of Wanghia.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

138. Criss-Crossing Globalization: Uphill Flows of Skill-Intensive Goods and Foreign Direct Investment

Author:
Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper documents an unusual and possibly significant phenomenon: the export of skills, embodied in goods, services or capital from poorer to richer countries. We first present a set of stylized facts. Using a measure which combines the sophistication of a country's exports with the average income level of destination countries, we show that the performance of a number of developing countries, notably China, Mexico and South Africa, matches that of much more advanced countries, such as Japan, Spain and USA. Creating a new combined dataset on FDI (covering greenfield investment as well as mergers and acquisitions) we show that flows of FDI to OECD countries from developing countries like Brazil, India, Malaysia and South Africa as a share of their GDP, are as large as flows from countries like Japan, Korea and the US. Then, taking the work of Hausmann et al (2007) as a point of departure, we suggest that it is not just the composition of exports but their destination that matters. In both cross-sectional and panel regressions, with a range of controls, we find that a measure of uphill flows of sophisticated goods is significantly associated with better growth performance. These results suggest the need for a deeper analysis of whether development benefits might derive not from deifying comparative advantage but from defying it.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Malaysia, India, South Africa, Brazil, Spain, and Korea

139. Global Outlook 2010: What lies ahead for the global economy

Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
Leo Abruzzese, Editorial Director for North America, discusses the latest EIU forecast for the world. Forward-looking economic indicators have continued to improve in many countries in recent months, suggesting that the worst of the contraction in global GDP is over. The improvement has triggered hopes of an imminent and sustained global economic recovery. But does this signal the start of a genuine strong recovery, or is it a false dawn, to be followed by months—or even years—of anemic growth? What is the outlook for the US, Canada, and Asia, as well as the major emerging markets, over the next couple of years? And what are the downside risks to this outlook?
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, Asia, and North America

140. Structural and Cyclical Trends in Net Employment over US Business Cycles, 1949-2009: Implications for the Next Recovery and Beyond

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Th is paper expands on the methodology of Groshen and Potter (2003) for studying cyclical and structural changes in the US economy and analyzes the net structural and cyclical employment trends in the US economy during the last 10 trough-to-trough business cycles from 1949 to the present. It illustrates that the US manufacturing sector and an increasing number of services sectors, including parts of the fi nancial services sector, are experiencing structural employment declines. Structural employment gains in the US labor market are increasingly concentrated in the healthcare, education, food, and professional and technical services sectors and in the occupations related to these industries. Th e paper concludes that the improved operation of the US labor market during the 1990s has reversed itself in the 2000s, with negative long-term economic eff ects for the United States.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

141. American Multinationals and American Economic Interests: New Dimensions to an Old Debate

Author:
Theodore H. Moran
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The 2008 election rekindled debate about whether US multinationals shift technology across borders and relocate production in ways that might harm workers and communities at home. President Obama now pledges to end tax breaks for corporations that ship jobs overseas. The preoccupation about the behavior of American multinationals takes three forms: (1) that US-based multinational corporations may follow a strategy that leads them to abandon the home economy, leaving the workers and communities to cope on their own with few appealing alternatives after the multinationals have left; (2) worse, that US-based multinational corporations may not just abandon home sites but drain off capital, substitute production abroad for exports, and “hollow out” the domestic economy in a zero-sum process that damages those left behind; and (3) worst, that US-based multinational corporations may deploy a rent-gathering apparatus that switches from sharing supranormal profits and externalities with US workers and communities to extracting rents from the United States. Each of these concerns contains a hypothetical outcome that can be compared with contemporary evidence from the United States and other home countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and America

142. Improving the International Investment Regime: priorities for the new U.S. Administration

Author:
Pablo M. Pinto, Karl P. Sauvant, Petros C. Mavroidis, Curtis J. Milhaupt, Peter Rosenblum, and Hans Smit
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The international investment regime has grown rapidly over the past two decades, along with foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, which reached $1.8 trillion in 2007. Even in the absence of a single comprehensive multilateral investment treaty or institution, that regime is governed by principles and rules enshrined in some 2,600 bilateral investment treaties and another 250 free trade agreements that contain substantial investment provisions. These treaties are supplemented by a number of other relevant multilateral agreements and customary international law, along with complementary principles applied by international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, that cover aspects of the activities of multinational enterprises as well as how states regulate them.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

143. The United States in the New Asia

Author:
Robert A. Manning and Evan A. Feigenbaum
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
President Barack Obama heads to Singapore in November for the 2009 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) summit. It will be his first foray into the arcane world of Asian multilateralism. And if his administration adopts a new approach, it could yet fashion a more sustainable role for the United States in a changing Asia.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

144. Agricultural Dumping Under NAFTA: Estimating the Costs of U.S. Agricultural Policies to Mexican Producers

Author:
Timothy A. Wise
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
With the opening of the Mexican economy under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexican agriculture came under new competitive pressures from U.S. exports. It was widely recognized at the beginning of NAFTA that Mexico had geographically-based comparative advantages in supplying off-season fruits and vegetables to a hungry U.S. market. NAFTA's liberalization of agricultural trade produced the expected results, with more staple crops and meats flowing south and more seasonal fruits and vegetables flowing north. In agriculture, tariffs and quotas have now mostly been eliminated. Not so agricultural subsidies, which were left largely undisciplined by NAFTA. High U.S. farm subsidies for exported crops, which compete with Mexican products, have prompted charges that the level playing field NAFTA was supposed to create is in fact tilted heavily in favor of the United States.
Topic:
Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States and North America

145. EU and U.S. Free Trade Agreements in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Riad al Khouri
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The political situation in much of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is subject to persistent tension due to the Arab–Israeli conflict, the war in Iraq and its spillovers to other countries, and sporadic upsurges of terrorism. In addition, some countries face serious domestic political tensions, a lack of political openness, and the increasing popularity of Islamist opposition groups. Economically, fast demographic and labor force expansion has led to high un- employment and slow growth in per capita incomes. Unsustainable management of the environment and natural resources further threatens prospects for long-term economic growth. In this context, increased economic cooperation between the MENA countries, on the one hand, and the United States and the European Union (EU), on the other, aims not only at promoting growth and development but also at fostering more stable political environments.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and North Africa

146. The Trade and Climate Change, Joint Agenda

Author:
Thomas L Brewer
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Climate change, international trade, investment and technology transfer are all issues that have intersected in diverse institutional contexts and at several levels of governmental activity to form a new joint agenda. The purpose of this paper is to advance understanding of this joint agenda by identifying the specific issues that have emerged, the policies that have been adopted, especially in the EU and US, and the options that are available for further policy-making.
Topic:
Government, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

147. China's Exports in ICT and its Impact on Asian Countries

Author:
Yuqing Xing
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyses China's ICT exports grow thin its two major markets Japan and the US from 1992 to 2004. It focuses on ICT products classified in SITC 75, 76 and 77. The empirical results show that Chinese exports had maintained two-digit annual growth during the period. The growth was much higher than the corresponding growth of the overall markets. By 2004, Chinese ICT exports accounted for 26 per cent of the total Japanese imports and 19 per cent of the total imports of the US in ICT products. In addition, the paper investigates whether the rapid growth of Chinese ICT exports crowded out that of other Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. The empirical analysis shows that the crowding out effect differs across countries and products. The exports of Singapore and Philippines have been negatively affected by the growth of Chinese exports, but no crowding effect existed at all with Indonesia's exports.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand

148. The Williamsburg Conference

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Coming in the midst of a very heated U.S. presidential election campaign, where the U.S. is faced with numerous foreign policy challenges in the Asia-Pacific region and at a critical juncture in Islam's relationship with the rest of the world, the Asia Society convened over 50 Asian and American leaders at a very opportune time in Bali, Indonesia from April 3-6, 2008. Delegates discussed the characteristics of Islam in Asian countries with multiethnic or multireligious populations like India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. They also suggested ways of tackling radicalism and extremism by alleviating poverty, improving education, and reforming prisons and rehabilitation Centres, to name a few. During the second half of the conference, delegates engaged in a conversation about the evolving U.S. role in Asia. Contemporary affairs like the protests in Myanmar and Tibet, engagement with North Korea, and the impact of the Iraq war on U.S. foreign policy towards Asia were analyzed in light of the coming presidential election. Asian leaders were invited to give advice to the new U.S. president. Finally, young leaders from the Asia Pacific region shared their thoughts on what kinds of leadership and values are needed in the future.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Islam, Post Colonialism, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, South Asia, Indonesia, India, Israel, Asia, and Southeast Asia

149. China's Role as a Trade Bridge for Expanding Regional and World Trade

Author:
Min Gong and Wenpu Li
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
To understand China's trade relations with the US, Japan, and South Korea, we estimate a vector autoregressive model (VAR) model to investigate the trade interactions among these four countries using data from the period of the first quarter of 1993 to the fourth quarter of 2005. We find substantial Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)-induced indirect trade from Japan and Korea to the US through China, and between Japan and Korea through China. These indirect trade flows lead to increases in China's trade deficit with Japan and Korea as well as China's trade surplus with the US. The indirect trade flows through China also indicate the importance of China's role as a trade bridge. From the viewpoint of world trade growth, as a trade bridge, China contributes to the stable growth of the regional and world economies. However, China's role as a trade bridge may negatively affect its long-run economic growth.
Topic:
Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and Korea

150. Nafta toward a Common Currency: An Economic Feasibility Study

Author:
Kelly Hugger
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Economics and Business, Colorado College
Abstract:
The recent emergence of the Euro, combined with the completion of a decade of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has sparked interest in adopting a common currency for North America. This study examines the likelihood that Canada, Mexico, and the United States will adopt a common currency under fixed exchange rate regimes. The benefits and costs of a common currency are explored using the theory of optimum currency areas (OCA). Empirical research focuses on several variables including intra-regional and intra-industry trade, trade openness, gross domestic product, inflation rates, interest rates, economic growth rates, business cycle synchronization, factor mobility, fiscal policy and monetary policy coordination. The analysis also presents a comparative analysis of NAFTA with Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) nations on different economic criteria. Finally, correlation and regression analysis further explores the likelihood that members of NAFTA will economically integrate. Though this research concludes that it is economically feasible for NAFTA members to move towards a common currency, this venture depends on the political readiness of the nations.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico