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201. Modernizing China's Military: A High-Stakes Gamble?

Author:
Howard M. Krawitz
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
China's accelerated push to modernize the People's Liberation Army (PLA) raises two important questions: What impact will such change have upon the PLA image, status, and role in Chinese society? And how will Chinese military modernization affect the strategic interests and security concerns of the United States and China's neighbors in the region? Making the PLA into a more professional, technologically proficient force would certainly strengthen its capability to perform national defense, regional security, and other externally oriented missions more effectively. But modernization could also significantly change internal PLA demographics, resulting in a drastic alteration of the social contract that has traditionally existed between China's military and civilian society.
Topic:
Security, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States and China

202. Imbalance of Powers: How Changes to U.S. Law and Security Since 9/11 Erode Human Rights and Civil Liberties

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
This report examines a wide range of actions taken by the United States government over the last six months in response to the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. It updates our report entitled “A Year of Loss” published in September 2002, on the first anniversary of the attacks.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and National Security
Political Geography:
United States

203. Expanding and Deepening Citizen Participation Process in HUD's CDBG Program

Author:
Marcela Tribble and Terry F. Buss
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration
Abstract:
Effective citizen participation processes are now regarded as critical in insuring the successful implementation of federal program s in local com m unities. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's (HUD) Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) program, a $4.4 billion community/economic development initiative serving more than 1,000 entitlement communities presents an as of yet unrealized opportunity to involve citizens much more in developing, planning, implementing and evaluating local projects. The Secretary of HUD could greatly expand and deepen citizen participation under CDBG by linking merit pay for federal officials to improved citizen participation efforts, providing entitlement com m unities better incentives, funding demonstration projects, and promoting best practices nation-wide; in short, moving citizen participation much higher up on the national agenda.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

204. Containing Wildland Fire Costs: Improving Equipment and Services Acquisition

Author:
Frank Fairbanks, Allan V. Burman, Gail Christopher, Patrick J. Kelly, Lyle Laverty, Keith Mulrooney, Paul Posner, and Charles Wise
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration
Abstract:
Wildland fire - related acquisition management programs of the five federal land management agencies are big business. For example, Forest Service wildfire preparedness and suppression contracting costs reached almost $800 million in FY 2002. Even at a lower level, these costs significantly affect other land management programs and their funding. Thus, searching for and taking advantage of methods to achieve cost containment of escalating wildland fire acquisition programs take on added value. That is the basic premise of this Academy report.
Topic:
Environment, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States

205. Post Conflict Governance: From Rubble to Reconstruction

Author:
Ryan J. Watson
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration
Abstract:
Global debate and media awareness of the complex issues involved with post-conflict governance are at an all-time high. With the reconstruction of the Balkans still leaving much left undone, the United States and much of the international community are seeking to balance continued intervention in Afghanistan with the emerging challenge of rebuilding Iraq.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Balkans

206. Protecting the Homeland: Lessons from Prior Government Reorganizations

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration
Abstract:
This might well have been the greeting card on the desk of the nation's first Secretary of Homeland Security: Officially launched January 24, 2003 with 180,000 employees and a budget of nearly $40 billion, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is, at its inception, the third largest cabinet agency in the U.S. government. No U.S. government reorganization of this magnitude has been accomplished since the creation of the Department of Defense following World War II.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States

207. A Breath of Fresh Air: Reviving the New Source Review Program

Author:
Don Kettl, Peter Harkness, Lisa Heinzerling, DeWitt John, Howard M. Messner, Robert Terrell, Christophe Tulou, and Alfred M. Zuck
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration
Abstract:
The New Source Review program (NSR) is a critic al tool enacted by Congress 25 years ago to protect public health and improve the nation's air quality. But, as applied to existing facilities, NSR is not working as Congress intended. Thus NSR should be fundamentally reformed and strongly enforced against past violations by existing facilities.
Topic:
Environment, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States

208. Modernizing Democracy

Author:
Terry F. Buss and Stevens F. Redburn
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration
Abstract:
Changes in society and emerging technologies offer new possibilities for meaningful citizen participation in public choices. A new set of computer-based processes will support sophisticated and game -like group decision-making. Advanced software design accompanied by sensitivity to the hum an/machine interactions that must be managed can lead to citizen-friendly software products and processes that ordinary people can use both individually and in a group setting to make complex choices.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

209. Building an Effective, Sustainable Partnership Between the Government and the Private Sector

Author:
James B. Steinberg and Gilman Louie
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The challenge of preventing and responding to the new security threats is very different from the one we, as a nation, faced in the Cold War. Today, the private sector is on the frontline of the homeland security effort: Its members are holders of information that may prove crucial to thwarting terrorist attacks; stewards of critical infrastructure that must be protected and dangerous materials that could be used to do harm; and important actors in responding to attacks. As we said in our first Task Force report, private sector information is essential to counter-terrorism, and government agencies should have timely, needed access to that information, pursuant to guidelines that give confidence that the information will be used in a responsible way.
Topic:
Government, National Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

210. Is Gradualism Possible? Choosing a Strategy for Promoting Democracy in the Middle East

Author:
Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As part of the changed U.S. geostrategic outlook arising from the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks against the United States, the Bush administration is giving greatly heightened attention to the issue of promoting democracy in the Middle East. Although a policy of coercive regime change has been applied in Iraq, in most of the region the administration is pursuing a more gradualist model of political change that emphasizes diplomatic pressure and democracy-related aid.
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

211. Threats to Financial Privacy and Tax Competition

Author:
Veronique de Rugy and Richard W. Rahn
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Global economic growth and personal freedom are under attack by governments and international organizations seeking to squelch financial privacy and tax competition. Privacy rights and international tax competition are beneficial constraints on the monopoly power of governments. But high-tax nations and organizations such as the European Union are pressing for international agreements to remove those limits on government power at the expense of prosperity and freedom.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Organization
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

212. Immigrants and TANF: A Look at Immigrant Welfare Recipients in Three Cities

Author:
Karen C. Tumlin and Wendy Zimmermann
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
The federal welfare reform act of 1996 (the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act, or PRWORA) dramatically revamped the welfare system, turning it into a block grant program run by the states, imposing new, stricter work requirements and setting a five-year lifetime limit on benefit receipt. For immigrants the law did all that and much more. In a major departure from previous policy, the law sharply curtailed noncitizens' eligibility for welfare and other major federal benefits.
Topic:
Government, Human Welfare, and Migration
Political Geography:
United States

213. Budget Crisis at the Door

Author:
C. Eugene Steuerle and Rudolph G. Penner
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
In 1995 the Bipartisan Commission on Entitlement and Tax Reform concluded that “If we do not plan for the future, entitlement spending promises will exceed financial resources in the next century. The current spending trend is unsustainable … If we fail to act, we have made a choice that threatens the economic future of our children and our nation” (U.S. Congress 1995). Now, well into the next century, we have still failed to act. Yet the problem not only remains, but in many ways has intensified simply because we are years closer to the day of reckoning. Relative to both available revenues and societal needs, we have promised more than we can afford to an elderly and fairly well-off near-elderly population that will soon grow very rapidly as the baby boomers retire and life expectancy continues to increase.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

214. Options to Finance the Additional War Costs

Author:
Leonard E. Burman and Jeff Rohaly
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
The President has requested an additional $87 billion to finance the war and reconstruction costs in Iraq. Commentators and some members of Congress have expressed an interest in options to offset these additional costs so as not to add on to the burgeoning budget deficit, which CBO estimates to be $480 billion in fiscal year 2004. This note considers four options to raise approximately enough revenue to finance the additional war costs. The estimates are approximate because they do not account for additional tax avoidance that higher rates might provoke, a significant factor in official revenue estimates.
Topic:
Government, Political Economy, and War
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

215. Trends in Naturalization

Author:
Michael E. Fix, Jeffrey S. Passel, and Kenneth Sucher
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
The Policy Imperative Naturalization is the gateway to citizenship for immigrants and to full membership and political participation in U.S. society. The importance of naturalization—and citizenship—has risen since the mid-1990s, when welfare and illegal immigration reform based access to public benefits and selected rights increasingly on citizenship.
Topic:
Demographics, Government, and Migration
Political Geography:
United States

216. The New Neighbors: A User's Guide to Data on Immigrants in U.S. Communities

Author:
Randy Capps, Michael E. Fix, Dan Perez-Lopez, and Jeffrey S. Passel
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
Immigrant integration is now a key issue for communities across the nation. States and communities that had seen few immigrants as recently as 1990 are now welcoming new arrivals in unprecedented numbers. Although new immigrants continue to settle in the traditional U.S. centers of immigration—including California, Florida, New York, and Texas—the states with the currently fastest growing immigrant populations have not seen similar inflows for almost a century, if ever. According to the 2000 Census, these new destination states include North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee (at the top of the list) and other states in the Southeast, as well as states across the Midwest and up into the Pacific Northwest.
Topic:
Demographics, Government, and Migration
Political Geography:
United States, New York, California, Georgia, Texas, and Florida

217. Budget Blues: The Fiscal Outlook and Options for Reform

Author:
William G. Gale, Alan J. Auerbach, Peter Orszag, and Samuel R. Potter
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
Establishing a sustainable fiscal policy is central to the nation's long-term economic prospects, but requires a clear understanding of how past and current policies affect future resources. The federal budget should, but does not, provide this information, both because the task is difficult and current accounting practices are deficient. This paper shows that adjusting the official budget for many accounting and economic issues implies a bleak fiscal outlook that presents policymakers with difficult choices. We also explore options to restore fiscal sustainability directly and to improve the budget process that governs fiscal decisions.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

218. The Enron Debacle: Lessons for Tax Policy

Author:
Jane G. Gravelle
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
The Enron debacle had potential implications in three areas of tax policy: tax-favored retirement plans, stock options, and differences in book versus tax accounting. The most important issue relates to the increasing riskiness of retirement plans that (1) can pay in a lump sum amount, (2) are of the defined contribution variety, and (3) may be excessively concentrated in employer stock. Proposals to remedy this issue even in a limited way may be unsuccessful if they do not address the especially favorable tax treatment of employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs). Most stock options do not benefit from preferential treatment, although for both book and tax purposes it may be desirable (and feasible) to recognize compensation payments at the time of grant. Stock options may not be accomplishing their purposes efficiently, and special benefits (such as those for qualified stock options) might either be reconsidered or restricted to plans with desirable features. The spectacle of a purportedly profitable company paying little or no tax has become a common phenomenon. The Enron case suggests the need for more disclosure regarding the sources of book versus tax differences, if not some substantive corporate tax reforms.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

219. How Are Immigrants Faring After Welfare Reform?: Preliminary Evidence from Los Angeles and New York City - Final Report

Author:
Randy Capps, Michael Fix, Dan Perez-Lopez, Jeffrey Passel, Leighton Ku, Chris Furgiuele, Rajeev Ramchand, and Scott McNiven
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
In 1996, debates about welfare reform and immigration converged and reshaped federal policies about the eligibility of legally admitted immigrants for means-tested public benefits programs, including the Food Stamp Program (FSP), Medicaid, Supplemental Security Income (SSI), and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). Before the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) was enacted in 1996, legal immigrants were eligible for benefits on terms similar to those of native-born citizens. The new law significantly limited the eligibility of legally-admitted immigrants for means-tested federal benefit programs, particularly immigrants entering the United States after the welfare reform law was passed in August 1996.
Topic:
Government, Human Welfare, and Migration
Political Geography:
United States

220. Issues Matter: Social Attributes, Political Predispositions, and Issues Influence Voting

Author:
Robert B. Smith
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
To clarify the relative impacts of economic and social issues, this study analyzes a 1992 election night survey assessing how social attributes, ideological selfdesignation (liberal, centrist, conservative), party identification (Democrat, Independent, Republican), and the issues influenced the voters' choices. Residents of coastal regions, women, paid workers, and first time workers leaned toward a liberal ideology whereas ethnic minorities, older people, and poor people espoused a Democratic identification. Ideology had a direct effect on party identification, which had a very strong direct effect on vote. A latent structure analysis of the issues produced a Left-Center-Right classification. The Right is more ideologically consistent than the Left; Clinton got much of the Center's vote and this led to his victory. The issues, combined and separate, influenced the vote. The economic issue had a stronger effect on the Clinton vote than issues of health care reform, the environment, and lack of concern about a candidate's character. The character issue may be rooted in women's health issues: pro-life respondents may disparage the character of pro-choice candidates. The economic issue had little effect on the Perot vote (relative to that for Bush), whereas reform, the environment, and lack of concern about character distinguished Perot voters from Bush voters. Interactions among the issues indicated that Democratic advocacy of environmental protection somewhat weakened the effect of a negative campaign directed against Clinton's character.
Topic:
Demographics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

221. Disenchanted Conscription: A Military Recruitment System in Need of Justification

Author:
Anna Leander
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Economist's point of view is a widely shared one. It also seems warranted by current trends in policy-making in developed democracies. The US, the UK, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain, and Portugal have abolished or are phasing out conscription. Even France, mother of citizens armies through the revolutionary levée en masse, just saw (literally as the event was broadcasted as a main feature of the evening television news) its last conscript leave the armed forces. The Nordic countries and Germany have not abolished conscription, but conscripts make up a shrinking share of the armed forces, which governments plan to shrink even further. For many observers this confirms that they simply lag behind. They will soon be brought to reason and abolish conscription. But this is a simplistic understanding of what determines the fate of conscription.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, and Portugal

222. Electricity Restructuring

Author:
John A. Riggs and Paul Runci
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Over the July 4th weekend, seventy current and former government officials and experts from industry, academia, and consumer and environmental public interest groups met to discuss the state of the U.S. electricity industry. The lack of progress in addressing critical electricity issues will increase costs and reduce performance in the electricity sector over the next several years. The long-term future of electricity supply and demand is also clouded by the absence of clear and stable government policies.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

223. Journalism, Security and the Public Interest

Author:
Adam Clymer
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
In the wake of the national trauma of September 11, 2001, if there was one nostrum that dominated national commentary, it was “nothing will ever be the same again.”
Topic:
Government and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

224. Taiwan's Approach to Cross-Strait Relations

Author:
Ying-jeou Ma
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Civil war broke out between the Nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) Government of China and the Chinese Communist forces shortly after Japan surrendered to the Allied forces in 1945. Having occupied most of the country by mid-1949, the Chinese Communists proclaimed in Beijing the establishment of the People's Republic of China (PRC) on October 1, 1949. The Nationalist Government retreated to Taiwan, an island of 13,969 square miles just 90 miles off the coast of the Chinese Mainland, in December that year and continued to call itself the Republic of China (ROC). Sporadic battles continued in coastal areas of the Chinese Mainland.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, East Asia, Asia, and Island

225. Emergency Responders: Drastically Underfunded, Dangerously Unprepared

Author:
Warren B. Rudman, Richard A. Clarke, and Jamie F. Metzl
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
If we knew that there was going to be a terrorist attack sometime in the next five years but did not know what type of attack it would be, who would carry it out, or where in the United States it would occur, what actions would we take to prepare and how would we allocate our human and financial resources to do so? The tragic events of September 11, 2001 brought home to the American people the magnitude of the danger posed by terrorism on U.S. soil. Now, in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, the United States must assume that terrorists will strike again, possibly using chemical, biological, radiological, or even nuclear materials. The unthinkable has become thinkable.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States

226. Georgia: What Now?

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Georgia's political crisis, which climaxed in the forced resignation of President Eduard Shevardnadze on 23 November 2003, is not over yet and could still lead to violence and the country's disintegration. Georgia, in other words, is still pre-conflict, not post- conflict, and exceptional international action is required to contain the potential for chaos. Washington, which quietly supported what U.S. media called the “Rose Revolution”, has promised aid for organisation of the presidential election on 4 January 2004, as has the European Union; other donors should follow suit, and the international community should maintain this support through the equally important and potentially more contentious legislative elections in the spring.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, and Georgia

227. Kashmir: The View From Islamabad

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
More than five decades after independence, Pakistan is no closer to a resolution with India of the dispute over Kashmir. Pakistan and India have fought three wars, two of them over the status of Kashmir. They have been on the brink of war on several other occasions, including in Siachen in 1987 and in Kargil in 1999. From December 2001 to October 2002, the nuclear-armed protagonists came close to war once again when India mobilised along its international border with Pakistan following the terrorist attack on the parliament in New Delhi. Intense diplomatic and political pressure by the U.S., in coordination with other G-8 countries, averted what could have been a catastrophic clash.
Topic:
Security, Government, Regional Cooperation, and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, Kashmir, New Delhi, and Islamabad

228. Bosnia's Brcko: Getting In, Getting On and Getting Out

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is time to consider the future of Brcko District. In particular, it is time to chart an exit strategy for the supervisory regime that will serve both to preserve and extend its and the people of Brcko's accomplishments.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Bosnia, and Eastern Europe

229. Kosovo's Ethnic Dilemma: The Need For A Civic Contract

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A simple but effective formula exists for peace in diverse societies. It consists of a civic contract: the government recognises and supports special rights for minorities, and minorities acknowledge the authority of the government. No elements of such a contract currently exist in Kosovo. The Albanians remain reluctant to support enhanced rights for the Serb minority, and the Serb community does not recognise the authority of Kosovo's institutions. Moreover, Kosovo is not a state and the future status of the province remains unresolved. After four years of United Nations authority in Kosovo, the foundation of this civic contract and of sustainable peace has not been laid.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

230. A Marriage Of Inconvenience: Montenegro 2003

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is time for new policies and new approaches on Montenegro. International engagement with that republic in recent years has brought significant positive results. It bolstered the pro-Western government of Djukanovic when it faced the threat from Milosevic. It has helped promote reforms that have set Montenegro on the way to becoming a modern democracy, with a market economy and an independent, effective criminal justice system. However, efforts to promote regional stability have been hampered by an unnecessary obsession with keeping Montenegro and Serbia in a single state. The international community's overriding interest in the region should be to find stable, long-term solutions. Cobbling together interim solutions that lack legitimacy for those who must implement them and that are unlikely, therefore, to be functional in practice, is not the way to build stability.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Eastern Europe

231. Aceh: A Fragile Peace

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 9 December 2002, an agreement on cessation of hostilities in Aceh was concluded in Geneva, bringing hope that an end to the 26-year-old conflict between Indonesian government forces and guerrillas of the pro-independence Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka or GAM) was in sight. Since then there have been many positive developments, most strikingly, a dramatic drop in the level of violence.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Geneva, United States, Central Asia, and Indonesia

232. Uzbekistan's Reform Program: Illusion or Reality?

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since October 2001, Uzbekistan has been a key ally of the U.S. in the military campaign in Afghanistan. A U.S. base has been established and a far-reaching Agreement on Strategic Partnership was signed in March 2002. Uzbekistan, however, sits uncomfortably in a campaign known as “Enduring Freedom.” It is one of the most authoritarian of the post-Soviet states, with a poor record on human rights and an economy that still owes much more to Soviet central planning than the market.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, and Uzbekistan

233. Survival of the Best Fit: Exposure to Low-Wage Countries and the (Uneven) Growth of US Manufacturing Plants

Author:
J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, and Peter K. Schott
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines the role of international trade in the reallocation of U.S. manufacturing activity within and across industries from 1977 to 1997. It introduces a new measure of industry exposure to international trade, motivated by the Heckscher-Ohlin model, which focuses on where imports originate rather than their overall level. Results demonstrate that plant survival as well as output and employment growth are negatively associated with the share of industry imports sourced from the world's lowest-wage countries. Within industries, activity is reallocated towards capital-intensive plants. Plants are also more likely to alter their product mix (i.e. switch industries) in response to trade with low-wage countries. Plants altering their product mix switch to industries that are more capital-and skill-intensive.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

234. Falling Trade Costs, Heterogeneous Firms, and Industry Dynamics

Author:
J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, and Peter K. Schott
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines the response of industries and firms to changes in trade costs. Several new firm-level models of international trade with heterogeneous firms predict that industry productivity will rise as trade costs fall due to the reallocation of activity across plants within an industry. Using disaggregated U.S. import data, we create a new measure of trade costs over time and industries. As the models predict, productivity growth is faster in industries with falling trade costs. We also find evidence supporting the major hypotheses of the heterogenous- firm models. Plants in industries with falling trade costs are more likely to die or become exporters. Existing exporters increase their shipments abroad. The results do not apply equally across all sectors but are strongest for industries most likely to be producing horizontally-differentiated tradeable goods.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

235. Executive Leadership and the Role of “Veto Players” in the United States and Germany

Author:
Ludger Helms
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
In recent comparative works on the constitutional structures of contemporary liberal democracies, the United States and Germany have been grouped together as examples of democratic systems with an exceptionally high degree of “institutional pluralism”. In other typologies both countries have even been classified as “semisovereign democracies”. Whereas such classifications are of some use, especially in the field of public policy research, they fail to pay reasonable attention to the fundamental difference between parliamentary and presidential government that dominated the older literature on comparative political systems. As the comparative assessments offered in this paper suggest, the difference between parliamentary government and presidential government does not only constitute very different conditions of executive leadership in the core executive territory and at the level of executive-legislative relations, but has also a strong impact on the role and performance of the various “veto players” that characterize the political systems of the United States and Germany, and which are at the center of this paper.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Germany

236. The Spring 2002 Term of the Mexican Congress

Author:
Jeffrey A. Weldon
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The spring session of the second year of the 58th Legislature in Mexico, in comparison with most recent years, was more productive than average. Although there were a few major negative incidents, the strained relationship between the executive and legislative branches did not lead to complete paralysis on executive legislation.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, Central America, and Mexico

237. Cyber Attacks: Missing in Action

Author:
James A. Lewis
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The first warnings of an “electronic Pearl Harbor” appeared in 1995. 1 They have appeared regularly since then. Before the conflict with Iraq that began in March 2003, there was speculation that the U.S. would experience cyber attacks in retaliation. Since the onset of the war, however, there have been no reported attacks that damaged U.S. infrastructure or affected U.S. military operations in Iraq. Nor have there been any reports of cyber attacks that damaged U.S. infrastructure or affected U.S. military operations since 1996.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

238. Church and State: Leaders and Legitimacy, A Theoretical Review

Author:
Blaire M. Harms
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
This paper represents an introductory and partial review of the literature on elite politics and their use of myths and symbols for legitimacy. My full project will explain the connection (or relationship) between religious elites and political elites, the use of religious myths, symbols or ritual to generate nationalism, and political legitimacy. This project requires that I bring together a number of different fields that examine elites and nationalism, as well as the literature on myths and symbols. This includes work in international relations, comparative politics, culture/ethnicity, and religion. The starting point of most of the literature that looks at elite politics and nationalism (whether this is stated or not) is that politics becomes problematic when political institutions are weak. I will provide an overview of this broad literature to start with; then I will give a condensed look at some other positions that examine why competitive elite politics may generate nationalism; where nationalist symbology comes from; and the different roles religious elites may play in nationalist conflict; and finish with a description of how I see the relationship between religion, politics, myths and nationalism. You will see that my position is unique, yet combines elements from the other fields of inquiry.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States

239. A Model of Electoral Competition with Two-Year Terms

Author:
John C. Hansen and John M. Barron
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
This paper will shed some light on the legislative voting literature by using a standard median voter model, however, the legislator's term is split into two distinct voting years. This allows us to analyze in more detail the voting decisions made by Congressmen. We estimate a voting record based on constituency variables and calculate the residual. We find that a higher first-year residual on the part of a congressman causes a lower probability of being reelected. In addition, we find that the first-year residual plays the key role in this lower reelection probability. The second-year residual lacks any consistent significance with regards to the reelection probability. In this paper, we also analyze two different effects that have been predominant in the literature: the sorting effect and the tenure effect. Using our comprehensive data set, from 1983-1996, we find that both effects do exist. Moreover, older congressmen (those closer to retirement) had lower residuals. For the years 1983 to 1992, the two effects counteracted each other and caused no net impact on the first-year residual. For the years 1993-1996, the sorting effect dominated the tenure effect and showed that members with higher tenures had lower first-year residuals.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States

240. Do Affluent Countries Face an Incomes-Jobs Tradeoff?

Author:
Lane Kenworthy
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
Abstract:
A commonly-held view suggests that affluent nations face a tradeoff between incomes and jobs. According to this view, in the United States pay for workers at the bottom of the earnings distribution (relative to those in the middle) is very low and government unemployment-related benefits (the "replacement rate") are stingy, but this facilitates the creation of lots of new jobs and encourages such individuals to take those jobs. The result is a high rate of employment and low unemployment. In much of Western Europe relative pay levels are higher for those at the bottom and benefits are more generous, but this is said to discourage job creation and to reduce the willingness of the unemployed to accept low-wage jobs. The consequence is low employment and high unemployment. I undertake a comparative assessment of this tradeoff view, based on pooled cross-section time-series analyses of 14 OECD countries in the 1980s and 1990s. The findings suggest that greater pay equality and a higher replacement rate do reduce employment growth in low-productivity private-sector service industries and in the economy as a whole. However, these effects are relatively weak. The results point to a variety of viable options for countries wishing to maintain or move toward a desirable combination of jobs and equality.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

241. Government Expenditures and Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates

Author:
Ronald J. Balvers and Jeffrey H. Bergstrand
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Economists have long investigated theoretically and empirically the relationship between government spending and equilibrium real exchange rates. As Frenkel and Razin (1996) summarize for a small open economy, government expenditures (financed by lump-sum taxes) influence real exchange rates via a resource-withdrawal channel and a consumption-tilting channel. Recent theoretical and empirical studies, such as Froot and Rogoff (1991), Rogoff (1992), De Gregorio, Giovannini, and Krueger (1994), De Gregorio, Giovannini, and Wolf (1994), De Gregorio and Wolf (1994), and Chinn and Johnston (1996), have focused only upon the effects of government spending through the resource-withdrawal channel. Extending Frenkel and Razin (1996), this paper generates closed-form theoretical solutions for the relationships among the real exchange rate, relative per capita private consumption, relative per capita government consumption, and relative per capita tradables and nontradables production in a two-country general equilibrium model. Using relative price level, private and government per capita consumption, and relative productivity data from the Summers and Heston (1991) Penn World Tables and OECD (1996) data for a sample of OECD countries relative to the United States, we estimate the model's structural equations. The results suggest that government expenditures influence equilibrium real exchange rates approximately equally via the resource-withdrawal and consumption-tilting channels. Moreover, the results imply that government spending and private consumption are complements in utility.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

242. The Influence of Women and Racial Minorities Under Panel Decision Making on the U.S. Court of Appeals

Author:
Sean Farhang and Gregory Wawro
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
This paper assesses the impact of gender and race on judicial decisions on the federal Court of Appeals, paying particular attention to the institutional nuances of decision-making on three-judge appellate panels within circuits. Our central question is whether and how racial minority and women judges influence legal policy on issues thought to be of particular concern to women and minorities. Proper analysis of this question requires investigating whether women and minority judges influence the decisions of other panel members. We find that the norm of unanimity on panels grants women influence over outcomes even when they are outnumbered on a panel.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Gender Issues, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

243. Defense White Papers in the Americas: A Comparative Analysis

Author:
John Cope and Laurita Denny
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In preparation for the October 2000 Defense Ministerial of the Americas (DMA) in Manaus Brazil and at the request of the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) studied the global trend toward the creation of Defense White Papers. The study aimed to understand the nature of these documents in order to prepare the U.S. delegation to discuss the tendency in Latin America and the Caribbean during the DMA. The INSS study team found no agreement about what constitutes a 'white paper' other than each is a consensus statement on a topic. The team examined 15 defense documents worldwide and interviewed participants in the development process and independent analysts. The results suggest that the formative, often difficult, process through which governments must move to solidify their approach to national security defense policy, and the structure to implement it and build consensus for it is the essential part of a 'white paper,' providing a constructive experience that benefits the country. Governments tended not to want a template for this process, although at the working level there is some interest in the experience of other states. Defense White Papers become highly stylized nationalistic documents that reflect a state's unique domestic circumstances and international geopolitical situation. The attached chart provides an overview comparison of the Defense White Paper processes of Canada, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and South Africa. Past efforts by U.S. agencies to design templates have failed.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Caribbean, and Chile

244. Scientific Research at the Smithsonian Institution

Author:
James E. Colvard, C. William Fischer, Adam Jr. Herbert, Delores Parron, Maxine Singer, and Jerry R. Schubel
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration
Abstract:
The Smithsonian Institution is a unique organization, established in 1846 “for the increase and diffusion of knowledge among men.” It has grown over the years and is now composed of 16 museums and galleries, the National Zoo, and numerous research facilities in the United States and abroad. The Smithsonian participates in the annual federal budget process to receive funding though the federal appropriations process. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2001, it received 57 percent of its funding through federal appropriation. The remainder came from government grants and contracts, contributions and private grants, business ventures, and investment earnings.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, Industrial Policy, and International Organization
Political Geography:
United States

245. Courts, Congress, And Constituencies: Managing Fisheries By Default

Author:
Mary A. Gade, Terry D. Garcia, Jonathan B. Howes, Theodore M. Schad, and Susan Shipman
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration
Abstract:
In 1976, the Magnuson Fishery Conservation and Management Act established the first federal system to govern fishing in the then newly - declared 200 - mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). This management system was uniquely participatory, composed of representatives of states, recreational and commercial fishers, and the federal government. It was organized into eight regional councils that were charged with developing fishery management plans (FMPs), in coordination with the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and subject to NMFS review and approval. The councils were established to meet the goals of conserving fishery resources and promoting the U.S. commercial and recreational fishing industry. Under a set of statutory standards, the councils were tasked to make the major management decisions, such as the size of the allowable catch, the length of the fishing season, the allocation of any quotas to states and fishers, and permitting/licensing provisions.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, Industrial Policy, and International Organization
Political Geography:
United States

246. Strengthening Senior Leadership In the U.S. Government: Phase I Report

Author:
Sandra J. Hale, Patricia W. Ingraham, Ralph C. Bledsoe, Constance J. Horner, Gilda H. Lambert, and David M. Walker
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration
Abstract:
Since its creation in 1978, the Senior Executive Service (SES) has undergone wide - ranging assessments and analyses from a variety of sources. The U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO), Grace Commission, Packard Panel, and National Performance Review have addressed SES structural, systemic, and operational issues. In 1998, the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) raised these issues anew in a broad review about SES' future, and whether SES selection, development, and management produce the executives needed to meet the leadership challenges and opportunities of the 21st Century. This work led to policy improvements and set the stage for legislative proposals. However, the review did not show stakeholder consensus on several pivotal areas for effecting change in SES structure and composition. As a result, OPM was encouraged to lead a more comprehensive assessment of structure and composition to identify appropriate changes that would enhance overall accountability.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, Industrial Policy, and International Organization
Political Geography:
United States

247. Models For Change: Efforts By Four States To Address Environmental Justice

Author:
Jonathan B. Howes, Philip Rutledge, A. James Barnes, Jonathan Howes, Valerie Lemmie, David Mora, James Murley, and Eddie Williams
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration
Abstract:
In October 2001, the Office of Environmental Justice at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) asked the National Academy of Public Administration (the Academy) to study a selected group of state environmental justice programs and identify opportunities for states to address environmental justice concerns more effectively. This study complements a prior Academy effort that analyzed how environmental justice could be incorporated into EPA's permitting programs for air, waste, and water and contributed to EPA's five - step strategy for integrating environmental justice into its permits.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, Industrial Policy, and International Organization
Political Geography:
United States

248. Citizen Participation and Economic Development

Author:
Marcela Tribble, Terry F. Buss, and Stevens F. Redburn
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration
Abstract:
The past decade witnessed an increased interest among policy-makers, scholars, and advocates in expanding and deepening citizen participation processes, particularly in community and economic development activities. The Bush Administration, early on in its tenure, philosophized about the idea of a “citizen centric” government. The Clinton Administration, under the leadership of Vice-President Al Gore, worked on numerous citizen participation initiatives as part of its “reinventing government” program. Scholars, most notably, Robert Putnam, in books like Bowling Alone (2001), called attention to the decline in civil society. Redburn and Buss, in their monograph, Modernizing Democracy, called attention to the power of new information technology, and the Internet to engage citizens in public life in more sophisticated ways, and outlined a program to accomplish this goal. Advocates, like the Orton Family Foundation, have invested heavily in development and marketing of software—CommunityViz—to improve the quality of citizen deliberations on community and economic development policy and programming (www.communityviz.com). Representatives from neighborhood groups, the planning profession foundations, think tanks and universities met in Tampa in January 2002 to form a national association to raise the visibility of and expand opportunities for citizen participation in building communities (www.PlaceMatters.com). Hundreds of websites on citizen participation now dot the Internet landscape (e.g., www.democracyinnovations.org).
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

249. The Dominican Republic's 2000 Presidential Election: The U.S. Role in Supporting the Process

Author:
Kevin Michael O'Reilly
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Dominicans elected Rafael Hipólito Mejía Domínguez their president on May 16, 2000. He took office on August 16, 2000. Mejía, the candidate of the Dominican Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Dominicano — PRD), won 1,593,231 votes or 49.87 percent of the ballots cast in an essentially three-way race with Danilo Medina of the Party of Dominican Liberation (Partido de la Liberación Dominicana — PLD) and former President Joaquín Balaguer of the Social Christian Reformist Party (Partido Reformista Social Cristiano — PRSC). Medina won 24.94 percent of the vote (796,923) to finish second, with Balaguer only fractions of a percentage point behind, at 24.60 percent (785,926). Turnout, at just over 76 percent, was high by historical standards. Although two shooting deaths marred the campaign's closing days, relatively little violence accompanied the voting compared to previous Dominican elections. Since 1994, Dominican electoral law had called for a runoff between the top two vote winners if no candidate passed the 50-percent-plus-one mark, but Medina conceded on May 17, after Balaguer acknowledged that he could not deliver the entire PRSC vote to the PLD in a second round of voting. Balaguer announced, “For the good of the country, we waive our right to participate in a second round.” The country's Central Electoral Board (Junta Central Electoral — JCE) certified Mejía's victory on May 18, 2000.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Law
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and Caribbean

250. The U.S. Engagement with Colombia: Legitimate State Authority and Human Rights

Author:
Gabriel Marcella
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
September 11, 2001, reshaped international relations and had a profound impact on the strategic equation in Colombia. The challenge of what U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld called “draining the swamp” of terrorism with global links resonated deeply in Bogotá and among the insurgent forces: the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia — FARC), the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional — ELN), and the paramilitaries, among them, the United Self- defense Forces of Colombia (Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia — AUC). Though these groups already appeared on the U.S. State Department's list of terrorist organizations, as of 9/11 they formed part of a broader international threat assessment. Two weeks into 2002, an ill-conceived “peace process,” initiated by President Andrés Pastrana with the FARC in 1999, was r esuscitated at the last minute before an impending military offensive by the government against the FARC was started. President Pastrana, “risking all for peace,” had extended himself, his negotiators, and his government's credibility as far as he could for three years — with nothing to show for such extensive efforts other than his administration's and the Colombian citizens' frustration and virtual surrender to the FARC of national sovereignty over a demilitarized zone ( despeje ) the size of Switzerland, located in San Vicente del Caguán, an area south of Bogotá.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Law
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America