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101. The US and Iran: Sanctions, Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman, Bryan Gold, and Chloe Coughlin-Schulte
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
US and Iranian strategic competition is heavily drive by four key factors–the success or failure of sanctions, the im0pact of that competition on the flow of Gulf energy exports, the success or failure of efforts to limit Iran's nuclear options and the broader prospect for arms control, and the prospects for accommodation of regime change. In recent years, the key variable has been ways in which sanctions on Iran have changed US and Iranian competition since the fall of 2011, and helped lead to a tentative set of Iranian agreements with the UN's P5+1--the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, namely United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, and France, plus Germany--in November 2013.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Oil, Regime Change, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany

102. Politics and Economics in Putin's Russia

Author:
Stephen J. Blank
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The United States Army War College educates and develops leaders for service at the strategic level while advancing knowledge in the global application of Landpower.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

103. Inward FDI in the United States and its policy context

Author:
Lucyna Kornecki
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) represents an integral part of the United States (U.S.) economy, with its stock growing from US$ 83 billion in 1980 to US$ 3.5 trillion in 2011. The United States, which had earlier been primarily a home for multinational enterprises (MNEs) rather than a host for affiliates of foreign MNEs, has become a preferred host country for FDI since the 1980s. Foreign MNEs have contributed robust flows of FDI into diverse industries of the U.S. economy, and total FDI inflows reached US$227 billion in 2011, equivalent to 15% of global inflows, the single largest share of any economy. Inflows of FDI, with a peak of US$ 314 billion in 2000 and another of US$ 306 billion in 2008, have been an important factor contributing to sustained economic growth in the United States. The recent financial and economic crises negatively impacted FDI flows to the United States and opened a period of major uncertainty. The effectiveness of government policy responses at both the national and international levels in addressing the financial crisis and its economic consequences will play a crucial role for creating favorable conditions for a rebound in FDI inflows.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and North America

104. Inward FDI in Germany and its policy context, 2012

Author:
Thomas Jost
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In 2011 and the first half of 2012, inward FDI (IFDI) flows to Germany continued to be relatively strong. Germany attracte market-seeking MNEs, as its economy showed remarkable economic growth despite the ongoing problems in many other countries of the Eurozone. In the second half of 2012, IFDI flows turned sharply negative, declining for the year as a whole to only US$ 7 billion, compared with US$ 49 billion in 2011. This decline reflects the difficult financial situation of many companies, including banks in the Eurozone, and could also dampen inflows in 2013. In the longer-term, Germany could profit again from rising FDI as its economy has successfully implemented reforms over the past decade, and the German Government has continued to keep its investment policy regime open.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Germany

105. The global economy: Healing or still hurting?

Author:
Leo Abruzzese
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
After a series of setbacks, the global economy is slowly mending US economy is strengthening; star performer Jobs market is on a modest upswing Housing is bouncing back China is recovering from a slowdown Boom years are over, but so is the slump European debt crisis is stabilizing but austerity is killing the economy Euro zone remains big drag on global growth Japan is showing signs of recovery under a new government Central banks are supporting the bounce - back in a big way Don't expect a brisk recovery, though; many risks remains Debt levels still high; asset prices are volatile; tensions in Middle East, China, Kore and has stabilised in Europe, but at a low level. In Germany, manufacturing output is rising again.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
United States and China

106. Africa's Booming Oil and Natural Gas Exploration and Production: National Security Implications for the United States and China

Author:
David E. Brown
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The frenetic search for hydrocarbons in Africa has become so intense and wide ranging that there is planned or ongoing oil and gas exploration in at least 51 of the continent's 54 countries. Knowledge about Africa's geology is improving rapidly, generating great optimism about the continent's energy future. Onshore and offshore rifts and basins created when the African continent separated from the Americas and Eurasia 150 million years ago are now recognized as some of the most promising hydrocarbon provinces in the world. Offshore Angola and Brazil, Namibia and Brazil, Ghana and French Guyana, Morocco and Mexico, Somalia and Yemen, and Mozambique and Madagascar are just a few of the geological analogues where large oil fields have been discovered or are be-lieved to lie. One optimistic but quite credible scenario is that future discoveries in Africa will be around five timestheir current level based on what remains un-explored on the continent versus currently known sub-soil assets. If proven true, this could have a pro-foundly positive impact on Africa's future growth and strategic position in the global economy.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, China, America, Eurasia, Asia, Brazil, Yemen, Mozambique, Mexico, Morocco, Somalia, Angola, Ghana, Namibia, Guyana, and Moldavia

107. North American Competitiveness: The San Diego Agenda

Author:
Christopher Sands, Duncan Wood, and Laura Dawson
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
The 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) among Canada, Mexico, and the United States was a bold experiment in economic integration and regional cooperation. To be successful, the initiative demanded political leadership and a commitment to regionalism. It required a vision that extended beyond short-term national interest and it demanded creative thinking about how three large countries could integrate their markets in a meaningful way.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico

108. Open Spectrum: A Major Step for U.S. Innovation and Economic Growth

Author:
Harold Furchtgott-Roth
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
This paper proposes that the Federal Communications Commission adopt rules to allow practically all of the electromagnetic spectrum to be allocated flexibly in response to market conditions and to allow licensees to use their spectrum flexibly. This approach is consistent with the direction of FCC decisions to allow greater spectrum flexibility and would be economically far superior to recent FCC proposals for broadcast spectrum auctions. Spectrum flexibility—or “Open Spectrum”—would eliminate the much-lamented wireless broadband “shortage” without delay and would foster greater innovation in American spectrum markets and transactions and in wireless services and products. The econo mic value of Open Spectrum is probably orders of magnitude greater than the projected $15 billion in receipts from the FCC's broadcast spectrum auctions.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, and Communications
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and America

109. Institutional Choices for Regulating Oil and Gas Wells

Author:
Lee Lane
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Hydraulic fracturing (HF) is one of the technologies that have enabled large increases both in the current production of natural gas and in estimates of recoverable reserves. However, as new technology has triggered a boom in onshore U.S. gas exploration and production (E), environmental concerns have multiplied. Much of the concern centers on use of HF. As public concern has risen, so have calls for federal regulatory control. The Interior Department has adopted tighter controls on the use of HF on public lands. Also, two former Obama White House aides, Carol Browner and Jody Freeman, have argued for more EPA regulation of all use of HF in oil and gas drilling. To achieve this control, they propose to repeal the partial oil and gas exemption under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA). Bills to this effect, dubbed the FRAC Act, were proposed in the last two Congresses, but they were not adopted.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States and North America

110. Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for the Coming Technology Revolution

Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This report has a simple message: We are not prepared for the negative consequences of many new technologies or as well-positioned as we should be to take full advantage of the benefits. Emerging technologies are likely to be more beneficial than detrimental, but the opposite could be true if we are not careful. This report examines emerging technologies in three broad areas—energy, smart cities, and manufacturing—that are playing critical yet disruptive roles: all present opportunities for the US and its partners, but also huge challenges and risks.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States

111. The United States, Russia, and Europe: Trilateral Security Dialogue in the Absence of Strategic Partnership

Author:
Isabelle Francois
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The past twenty years have been marked by a series of setbacks and disappointments in the US-European-Russian dialogue, despite regular attempts to develop a strategic partnership. In this cyclical relationship, 2012 was a low point in Western relations with Russia, from the calculated absence of President Vladimir Putin at the NATO summit in Chicago to the Russian ban on American adoptions of Russian orphans, and the US reaction to the Sergei Magnitsky case. The year 2013 could have been the beginning of an upswing in the trilateral dialogue. In April, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met on the margins of the G8 foreign ministers' gathering in London. At the same time, US National Security Advisor Tom Donilon called on Putin in Moscow, where he hand-delivered a letter from President Barack Obama detailing potential areas of cooperation. A series of meetings between Russian and American officials throughout the summer saw a new diplomatic push to reframe the US–Russia relationship in the run-up to the Group of Eight meeting in June and the G20 meeting in September 2013. However, the Edward Snowden affair and Obama's subsequent decision to cancel the planned September meeting with Putin in light of insufficient progress on bilateral issues point to a pause in the relationship.
Topic:
International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, and Europe

112. Mexico Rising: Comprehensive Energy Reform at Last?

Author:
David J. Goldwyn
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Mexico's Congress passed its final hurdle to reform the Constitution and allow for private investment in the energy industry on December 12, 2013. This significant achievement heralds the most comprehensive energy reform in the last seventy-five years of the country's history.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and Mexico

113. Redefining Leadership in the Global Nuclear Energy Market

Author:
Andrew Paterson and Walter Howes
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Global energy demand will increase substantially in the coming decades under pressure from global trends, including an increasing population that will reach 9 billion by 2040, and, for the first time in history, will be overwhelmingly urban. Meeting basic global energy needs will require the use of all available sources of energy while addressing and minimizing environmental and climate impacts. Nuclear energy is an established part of the world's electricity mix, and provides large-scale, reliable, base-load electricity demand. As such, it seems to be well matched to fit into an increasingly urban world that aims to mediate environmental challenges.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

114. Sources of Tension in the Asia-Pacific: Strategic Competition, Divided Regionalism and Non-traditional Security Challenges

Author:
James Manicom
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
There are a number of strategic challenges currently affecting the Asia-Pacific. In a period of global uncertainty, China has emerged as a confident and powerful actor, while the ability of the United States to remain the region's hegemonic power has come into question. Maritime boundary claims, regionalism and unresolved Cold War sovereignty disputes are a source of considerable uncertainty. A number of non-traditional security challenges are also emerging, including energy and food insecurity, cyber security and the threat of a climate catastrophe-related humanitarian crisis. Canada and Australia — resource-based economies with a record of bilateral and institutional engagement in the region, and important US allies — have an interest in these challenges, and in ensuring regional strategic stability that promotes economic growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Canada, Israel, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific

115. Estimating Income / Expenditure Differences across Populations: New Fun with Old Engel's Law

Author:
Lant Pritchett and Marla Spivack
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
How much larger are the consumption possibilities of an urban US household with per capita expenditures of 1,000 US dollars per month than a rural Indonesian household with per capita expenditures of 1,000,000 Indonesian Rupiah per month? Consumers in different markets face widely different consumption possibilities and prices and hence the conversion of incomes or expenditures to truly comparable units of purchasing power is extremely difficult. We propose a simple supplement to existing purchasing power adjusted currency conversions.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Political Economy, Political Theory, Social Stratification, and Socialism/Marxism
Political Geography:
United States and Southeast Asia

116. How to Measure Underemployment?

Author:
David G. Blanchflower and David N. F. Bell
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
One of the factors that may inhibit reductions in unemployment as the economy recovers is the extent to which existing workers would like to work more hours and employers may prefer to let them work longer hours before making new hires. This phenomenon suggests that the unemployment rate does not capture the full extent of excess capacity in the labor market. But how should it be measured? In this paper we argue that the United States does not have the necessary statistical tools to calibrate this form of underemployment. We describe an index that captures the joint effects of unemployment and underemployment and provides a more complete picture of labor market excess capacity. We show how this index can be implemented using British data and describe its evolution over the Great Recession. Comparisons of our index with unemployment rates suggest that unemployment rates understate differences in labor market excess capacity by age group and overstate differences by gender. We also show that being unable to work the hours that one desires has a negative effect on well-being. Finally, we recommend that the Current Population Survey conducted by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics might be extended to enable the construction of an equivalent US index.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

117. The Civil-Military Challenge to National Security Spending

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Perhaps the worst part of the debate that has led to the shut down of the federal government is its almost total irrelevance. It threaten both the US economy and US national security, but it does even begin to touch upon the forces that shape the rise in entitlements spending or their underlying causes.The Congressional debate does not address the forces that have led to a form of sequestration that focuses on defense as if it were the key cause of the deficit and pressures on the debt ceiling. It does not address the irony that much of defense spending has direct benefits to the US economy and that the spending on foreign wars–the so-called OCO account–dropped from $158.8 billion in FY2011 to some $88.5 billion in FY2013, and is projected to drop to around $37 billion in FY2015. Much of the debate focuses on the Affordable Care Act or "Obama Care"–a program whose balance between federal expenditures and revenues is sufficiently uncertain so the Congressional Budget office can only make limited forecasts, but whose net impact cannot come close to the cost pressures that an aging America and rising national medical costs have put on Federal entitlements in the worst case NDS May actually have a positive impact in the best case.The following briefing provides a range of estimates that addresses the real issues that are shaping the overall pressures that poverty, an aging America, and rising medical costs are putting on the US economy and federal spending. It draws on a range of sources to show how different estimates affect key trends, but focuses on data provide by a neutral arm of the same Congress that has paralyzed the US government and whose action threaten the funding on a viable national security strategy.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and America

118. A U.S.-Indonesia Partnership for 2020: Recommendations for Forging a 21st Century Relationship

Author:
Murray Hiebert, Gregory B. Poling, and Ted Osius
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The U.S.- Indonesia relationship is critical to the national interests of both nations, and will only grow more so in the years to come. The catch words are now well- known. Indonesia is the world's fourth largest country and third largest democracy. It is the largest Muslim- majority nation, one of the most pluralistic societies on the planet. Its political system provides proof that democratic norms and values are not dependent on culture, history, or religion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, Economics, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
United States, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia

119. Toward a New Paradigm of Sustainable Development: Lessons from the Partnership for Growth

Author:
Jeri Jensen
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Obama administration has the opportunity to achieve more sustainable development solutions with a new model of development relevant in a world where private investment is the primary driver of economic growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

120. Structure and Dynamics of the U.S. Federal Services Industrial Base, 2000-2012

Author:
David J. Berteau, Gregory Sanders, and Jesse Ellman
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The U.S. government has a permanent reliance on contracts with the private sector for a wide range of services, though the share of federal services contracts has declined slightly in recent years. For the past eight years, the Defense - Industrial Initiatives Group (DIIG) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has tracked the trends driving the services industry. Overall, this report analyzes the trends for all federal services contract obligations from FY 2000 through FY 2012, the most recent full fiscal year for which reliable data are available from the Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS). This Executive Summary provides an overall view of the data and trends, including projections for federal services contract spending over the next 3 years (FY 2013 – 2015).
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

121. U.S. Disaster Preparedness and Resilience: Recommendations for Reform

Author:
Stephanie Sanok Kostro, Ashley Nichols, and Abigail Temoshchuk
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In recent years , the United States has faced a growing number of severe natural disasters , presenting a variety of challenges for the nation – spanning the spectrum from federal to state to municipal and community levels – and its disaster response , relief, and recovery architecture . On average, the United States experiences ten severe weather events per year exceeding one billion dollars in damage , compared to an annual average of only two such events throughout the 1980s
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Disasters, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

122. Transition in Afghanistan: 2009-2013

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The US is already at least six months behind in shaping an effective Transition in Afghanistan. It has not laid credible plans for the security, governance, and economic aspects of Transition. It has not made its level of future commitment clear to its allies or the Afghans, and it has failed dismally to convince the Congress and the American people that there is a credible reason to support Transition beyond the end of 2014.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Islam, War, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

123. LATIN AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION SYSTEMS IN A HISTORICAL AND COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE

Author:
Jorge Balán
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
Higher education has undergone impressive growth and change over the last few decades in Latin America.This book selectively reviews some dimensions of this transformation, discussing policies, institutions, and programs, as well as their outcomes in terms of access, workforce training, and research. Individual chapters, commissioned from specialists from Latin America and the United States, stand as original, independent contributions focusing on key issues in higher education: changes in institutional autonomy and system governance, the contributions of higher education to advanced workforce development, policy responses to the continuing challenges of access and equity, government-sponsored study-abroad scholarships programs in several countries, trends in academic mobility and its outcomes for brain drain and gain, the changing landscape of U.S. universities' and corporations' investment in the region, and recent development of U.S. government exchange programs with Latin America.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

124. Templates for Trade: Change, Persistence and Path Dependence in U. S. and EU Preferential Trade Agreements

Author:
Ali Arbia
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
Over the last two decades, Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) proliferated through the international trading system. PTAs created a web of rules paralleling and extending the system of the World Trade Organization (WTO). PTAs are an increasingly dominant feature of the international trading system, adding to a steadily increasing complexity. Their content is rarely studied systematically across agreements, and the mechanisms leading to their genesis are little understood. It is typically assumed that actors like the European Union (EU) and the United States (U. S.) work off a template when negotiating PTAs. Some argue that this allows them, amongst others, to impose a regulatory regime. This working paper attempts to put this claim to the test. Using diffusion theory as framework, it analyzes PTAs signed by the EU, the U. S. and their regional trading partners. Understanding the use of templates will help negotiating parties to assess the margin of maneuver when negotiating PTAs with the EU and the U. S. as well as the rigidity of their mandate. The analysis is conducted on a regional and a domestic level using aggregated data on PTA content and a qualitative assessment of selected PTA provisions (anti-corruption, environment and cultural cooperation). The study finds that the flexibility of these mandates is considerable and that templates, if used at all, can change substantially over time.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

125. Responding to Change: The New World of Oil and Gas

Author:
Bill White(Chair) and Leonard Coburn(Rapporteur)
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Improved technology has led to enhanced oil and gas productivity at lower cost and significant production increases in the United States and Canada, dramatically changing energy perspectives. The shift from energy scarcity toward abundance is requiring new energy policies. The potential for the United States to become a net exporter of oil and gas changes American views of energy dependency. Shifts in global energy demand growth from developed to less developed countries, and especially to the Asia-Pacific region, require understanding of changing global energy trade. American energy will flow to markets where scarcity is the largest. Canada and the United States are reaping the benefits of this new world of oil and gas. Mexico will lag behind unless it addresses its chronic problems. Without reform, Mexico could become a net importer of all its hydrocarbons, a fundamental change from its current status. Responding to these changes will require knowledge, foresight, and strategies that are bold and comprehensive.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States, America, Canada, and Mexico

126. The Future of the U.S. Electricity Sector

Author:
Bill Dickenson (Co-Chair), Phil Sharp (Co-Chair), and Dave Grossman (Rapporteur)
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The future of the U.S. electricity sector is hard to foresee – and it is never wise to overpay one's fortune tellers – but there appear to be some key trends and technologies that may reshape future electricity markets and determine the innovativeness, resilience, security, and global competitiveness of the sector. Discussions of the sector's past, present, and future formed the heart of the 2013 Aspen Institute Energy Policy Forum. This report summarizes and organizes some of the key insights from those discussions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States

127. Empirical Investigation of Declining Childbirth: Psychosocial and Economic Conditions in Japan

Author:
Tetsuji Yamada, Chia-Ching Chen, Chie Hanaoka, and Seiritsu Ogura
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Background: For the past two decades, more and more women in certain European countries, Japan, and the United States are giving birth to their first child at a considerably later age than ever before. It remains unclear as to what extent this age-related general fertility decline is affected by changing social and cultural norms. Method: The Global Centers of Excellence Survey was conducted by Osaka University in Japan (n=5313) in 2009. Multivariate regression analyses were conducted to examine the impact of psychosocial norms, cultural differences, and economic conditions on the perception of childbearing. Results: The findings suggest that a subjective measure of happiness has a significant influence on childbearing. A society with income inequalities between classes discourages childbearing. It is observed that women's higher labor force participation generates a negative impact on motherchild relations which causes discouragement of childbearing. A higher female labor force participation stemmed from a transition of a traditional society into a modern and marketoriented society discourages childbearing. Conclusions/implications: A woman's decision to delay childbearing is based on her perception of psychosocial norms with surrounding economic environment and her own value of opportunity in the market oriented society. Childbearing also imposes psycho-economic burdens on the working population under mix of a traditional, patriarchal society, and a modern market oriented framework. Childbearing incentives could be a strategic policy to encourage positive attitudes of childbearing in general and proper welfare policy, labor law(s), employment conditions, and social security system for a working mother with a child or children.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, Health, Poverty, Social Stratification, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Europe, Israel, and Asia

128. The Use of Public Assistance Benefits by Citizens and Non-citizen Immigrants in the United States

Author:
Leighton Ku and Brian Bruen
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Claims are sometimes made that immigrants use public benefits, such as Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families programs, more often than those who are born in the United States. This report provides analyses, using the most recent data from the Census Bureau, that counter these claims. In reality, low-income non-citizen immigrants, including adults and children, are generally less likely to receive public benefits than those who are native-born. Moreover, when non-citizen immigrants receive benefits, the value of benefits they receive is usually lower than the value of benefits received by those born in the United States. The combination of lower average utilization and smaller average benefits indicates that the overall cost of public benefits is substantially less for low-income non-citizen immigrants than for comparable native-born adults and children. The report also explains that the lower use of public benefits by non-citizen immigrants is not surprising, since federal rules restrict immigrants' eligibility for these public benefit programs.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Humanitarian Aid, Markets, and Immigration
Political Geography:
United States

129. Why Growth Is Getting Harder

Author:
Brink Lindsey
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
For over a century, the trend line for the long-term growth of the U.S. economy has held remarkably steady. Notwithstanding huge changes over time in economic, social, and political conditions, growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has fluctuated fairly closely around an average annual rate of approximately 2 percent. Looking ahead, however, there are strong reasons for doubting that this historic norm can be maintained.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

130. The Rebalance to Asia: U.S.-China Relations and Regional Security

Author:
Phillip C. Saunders
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Upon taking office in January 2009, Obama administration officials proclaimed a U.S. “return to Asia.” This pronouncement was backed with more frequent travel to the region by senior officials (Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's first trip was to Asia) and increased U.S. participation in regional multilateral meetings, culminating in the decision to sign the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and to participate in the East Asia Summit (EAS) at the head-of-state level. The strategic “rebalance to Asia” announced in November 2011 builds on these earlier actions to deepen and institutionalize U.S. commitment to the Asia-Pacific region.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Asia

131. East Asia and the Arctic: Alaskan and American Perspectives

Author:
Jerry McBeath
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper concerns the US view of East Asian nations' involvement in the Arctic, emphasizing the perspective of Alaska, the only US Arctic state. It treats six different areas of US/Alaska policy: US national strategy for the Arctic; oil and gas exploration and development; marine transportation; fisheries; investment in infrastructure; and governance. The study finds few differences between the positions of Alaska and the United States, notwithstanding often-hostile rhetoric from leaders in the United States' farthest north frontier. In general terms, both Alaska and the United States have historically sought trade and investment ties with East Asian nations. China has now replaced Japan as Alaska's major trading partner, followed by South Korea and Taiwan.
Topic:
Economics, Food, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, East Asia, South Korea, Alaska, and Arctic

132. A Markov Switching Approach to Herding

Author:
Pierre Siklos, Martin T. Bohl, and Arne C. Klein
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Existing models of market herding suffer from several drawbacks. Measures that assume herd behaviour is constant over time or independent of the economy are not only economically unreasonable, but describe the data poorly. First, if returns are stationary, then a two-regime model is required to describe the data. Second, existing models of time-varying herding cannot be estimated from daily or weekly data, and are unable to accommodate factors that explain changes in this behaviour. To overcome these deficiencies, this paper proposes a Markov switching herding model. By means of time-varying transition probabilities, the model is able to link variations in herding behaviour to proxies for sentiment or the macroeconomic environment. The evidence for the US stock market reveals that during periods of high volatility, investors disproportionately rely on fundamentals rather than on market consensus.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Canada

133. Is Anyone Listening? Does US Foreign Assistance Target People's Top Priorities?

Author:
Benjamin Leo
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The United States government has made repeated declarations over the last decade to align its assistance programs behind developing countries' priorities. By utilizing public attitude surveys for 42 African and Latin American countries, this paper examines how well the US has implemented this guiding principle. Building upon the Quality of Official Development Assistance Assessment (QuODA) approach, I identify what people cite most frequently as the 'most pressing problems' facing their nations and then measure the percentage of US assistance commitments that are directed towards addressing them. By focusing on public surveys over time, this analysis attempts to provide a more nuanced and targeted examination of whether US portfolios are addressing what people care the most about. As reference points, I compare US alignment trends with the two regional multilateral development banks (MDBs) – the African Development Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. Overall, this analysis suggests that US assistance may be only modestly aligned with what people in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America cite as their nation's most pressing problems. By comparison, the African Development Bank – which is majority-led by regional member nations – performs significantly better than the United States. Like the United States, however, the Inter-American Development Bank demonstrates a low relative level of support for people's top concerns.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Development, Economics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, America, and Latin America

134. Financial regulation and the G20

Author:
Hugh Jorgensen, Mike Callaghan, Stephen Pickford, Richard Gray, Steven Bardy, Graham Hodges, and Ross Buckley
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This issue of the Monitor canvases the role of the G20 in strengthening financial regulation. It contains articles by Hugh Jorgensen (Lowy Institute), Stephen Pickford (Chatham House), Richard Gray (Westpac), myself, Steven Bardy (Australian Securities and Investment Commission), Ross Buckley (University of New South Wales) and Graham Hodges (ANZ). It also includes a summary of the discussion at a regional 'Think 20' seminar recently held at the Lowy Institute.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

135. Trade and the G20

Author:
John Ravenhill, Mark P Thirlwell, Mike Callaghan, Peter W. Gallagher, and Brett Williams
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This issue of the G20 Monitor is devoted to the topic of international trade and the role of the G20. Over the coming months, the Monitor will be covering in detail a number of issues that are, or could be, on the G20 agenda. For example, over the next few months there will be an issue on 'Financial regulation and the G20' and another on 'Development and the G20'. The question we are asking on each issue is 'where can the G20 add value?'
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

136. What's Wrong with Dodd-Frank 1502? Conflict Minerals, Civilian Livelihoods, and the Unintended Consequences of Western Advocacy

Author:
Laura E. Seay
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Although its provisions have yet to be implemented, section 1502 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act is already having a profound effect on the Congolese mining sector. Nicknamed “Obama's Law” by the Congolese, section 1502 has created a de facto ban on Congolese mineral exports, put anywhere from tens of thousands up to 2 million Congolese miners out of work in the eastern Congo, and, despite ending most of the trade in Congolese conflict minerals, done little to improve the security situation or the daily lives of most Congolese. In this report, Laura Seay traces the development of section 1502 with respect to the pursuit of a conflict minerals-based strategy by U.S. advocates, examines the effects of the legislation, and recommends new courses of action to move forward in a way that both promotes accountability and transparency and allows Congolese artisanal miners to earn a living.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, Natural Resources, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

137. Integration of Low-Skilled Immigrants to the United-States and Work-Family Balance

Author:
Magali Girard
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The role played by immigrants in the American economy is well documented and, to a lesser extent, the effect of the migration experience on the families of immigrants. However, little is known of the connections between work and family when it comes to immigrants, especially immigrants in low-skilled jobs, whether it is the effect of labour market experiences on the family or the effect of family patterns on integration into the labour market. Yet, the issue of balancing personal life with professional responsibilities is of growing interest among scholars and policy makers, given the increasing participation of women in the labour market, the increase in non-standard work and the high proportion of immigrants in these work arrangements.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Labor Issues, and Immigration
Political Geography:
United States

138. Managing Migration and Integration: Europe and the US

Author:
Philip Martin
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Most Americans and Europeans in opinion polls say that governments are doing a poor job of selecting wanted newcomers, preventing the entry and stay of unwanted foreigners, and integrating settled immigrants and their children. This seminar reviewed the evidence, asking about the economic and socio-political integration of low-skilled immigrants and their children.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Immigration, Governance, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Europe

139. Freeing the Global Market: How to Boost the Economy by Curbing Regulatory Distortions

Author:
Shanker A. Singham
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage. ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars. To combat ACMDs, the conventional trade policy approach of focusing on the The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage.1 ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, India, and Brazil

140. The Consolidation of the Anglo-Saxon/European Consensus on Price Stability. From International Coordination to a Rule-Based Monetary Regime

Author:
Arie Krampf
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
During the 1990s, a consensus consolidated among policy makers and economists worldwide regarding the desirability of very low inflation targeting. So far, this process has been explained on the basis of a domestic- functional thesis, according to which commitment to very low inflation provides local economic gains with no costs. In this paper, I present an alternative explanation, according to which the global norm of very low inflation targeting was consolidated as a political solution to the problem of exchange rate misalignment and volatility. I argue that policy makers in Germany and the US believed that convergence of monetary policies and inflation rates, in addition to liberalization of financial markets, will stabilize exchange rates without the need for direct coordination. The paper employs the theory of liberal intergovernmentalism as a benchmark to explain the choice of the European and the G-5/7 countries to establish a low-inflation rule-based international monetary regime. The paper concludes that the regime of very low inflation targeting was consolidated as a politically viable solution to a political problem rather than as an economic best practice. Furthermore, it concludes that the norm of very low inflation targeting was a “corer solution” that neglected the problem of exchange rate stability.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Political Economy, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

141. Independence day: A special report on North America's oil and gas boom

Author:
Martin Adams
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
The bulk of the world's proven oil reserves are concentrated in places that are hostile to the West, unstable or a combination of the two. Since the US is the world's largest importer of oil, concerns about energy security have long simmered in Washington. On top of this, global oil prices have hit new highs in recent years and remained persistently strong. This adds to anxieties about the security of energy supplies and places a burden on the US economy. Partly as a result of elevated prices, however, something new—and, arguably, revolutionary—has happened.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States and North America

142. Forging a New Strategic Partnership between Canada and Mexico

Author:
Perrin Beatty and Andrés Rozental
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Both Canada and Mexico are recovering well from the global economic recession of 2008-2009, but must work harder to make their bilateral relationship work to their mutual benefit. Bilateral trade and investment have grown steadily from very low pre-North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) levels, but there remains enormous, untapped potential, particularly in Mexico. Student, tourist, investor and temporary worker exchanges are enhancing familiarity with each other, but unhelpful stereotypes remain common. New investment and trade opportunities should flow from the new Mexican administration's commitment to open up the energy sector to foreign participation. The assessment and recommendations contained in this special report point to the benefit of efforts that will intensify bilateral partnerships, not only in their own right, but also in strengthening the two countries' ability to deal more effectively with the United States in pursuing matters of mutual concern.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

143. Fiscal and Generational Imbalances and Generational Accounts: A 2012 Update

Author:
Jagadeesh Gokhale
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Official federal budget accounts are constructed exclusively in terms of current cash flows – receipts from taxes and fees and outlays on purchases and transfers. But cash-flows do not reveal economically relevant information about who benefits and who loses from government policies. Cash flows also do not reveal how changes in government's policies redistribute resources within and across generations, including reducing the tax burden on today's generations and increasing it on future ones. Because most government transact ions are targeted by age and gender, the federal government can bring about large resource transfers across generations. Intergenerational resource transfers will grow larger as the composition of budget receipts and expenditures changes with relatively faster growth of age-and-gender-related social insurance program. Intergenerational redistributions across generations through federal government operations could substantially affect different generations' economic expectations and choices and exert powerful long-term effects on economic outcomes.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Health, Human Welfare, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States

144. Central Banks: Reform or Abolish?

Author:
Gerald P. O'Driscoll Jr.
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Advocates of central bank reform must examine why central banks emerged and what forces sustain them. They did not arise in an institutional vacuum, and will not be reformed in an institutional vacuum. The historical origins of central banks explain how they came into existence. The forces sustaining and feeding their growth may differ from those explaining their origin.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

145. The Misuse of Top 1 Percent Income Shares as a Measure of Inequality

Author:
Alan Reynolds
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
This paper confirms recent studies which find little or no sustained increase in the inequality of disposable income for the U.S. population as a whole over the past 20 years, even though estimates of the top 1 percent's share of pretax, pretransfer (market) income spiked upward in 1986-88, 1997-2000 and 2003-2007.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Markets, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
United States

146. ASEAN's Future and Asian Integration

Author:
Joshua Kurlantzick
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In a region largely bereft of regional organizations and long divided by the Cold War, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been the most significant multilateral group for the past forty-five years. Since the end of the Cold War, ASEAN has grown increasingly influential. While much of the West and most emerging markets continue to suffer because of the 2008 global recession, the leading ASEAN economies have recovered and are thriving. Perhaps most important, ASEAN has helped prevent interstate conflicts in Southeast Asia, despite several brewing territorial disputes in the region.
Topic:
Cold War, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

147. Transactions: A New Look at Services Sector Foreign Direct Investment in Asia

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In this paper Kirkegaard presents new micro-level data consisting of individual greenfield investment projects and mergers and acquisitions as a source for detailed analysis of services sector cross-border investment flows among the Asian Development Bank (ADB) regional membership in Asia. The new transactional foreign direct investment (FDI) data are methodologically distinct from traditional BPM5-compliant FDI data but found to yield generally comparable aggregates, when compared with the latest available International Monetary Fund (IMF) data from the Comprehensive Direct Investment Survey for the ADB regional membership. The services sectors are found to receive considerably larger amounts of foreign investment, when compared with the Asian region's manufacturing and raw materials sectors. OECD countries account for roughly three-quarters of total recorded inward services sector FDI of about $2 trillion, relatively evenly split between the United States, the EU-27, and regional OECD-level-income countries. The presence of sizable regional "upward flowing" services sector investments into OECD-level-income economies is verified. Kirkegaard draws preliminary policy conclusions based on the new transactional FDI data results concerning prospects for regional services sector liberalization, threshold income levels for inward services sector FDI, upward-flowing regional services FDI, and preferred modes of services sector investments.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Asia

148. The Dollar and Its Discontents

Author:
Olivier Jeanne
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Has the US dollar delivered the benefit that the rest of the world is expecting from its holdings of international liquidity? US government debt has been liquid and safe, and it is supplied in sufficient quantity. But it has given a low return to the countries that accumulated the most reserves, especially when those returns are measured in terms of the countries' own consumption. Jeanne argues that countries that accumulate the most reserves should expect a low return in terms of their own consumption and that international monetary reform can do little to change that fact.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

149. Lessons Learned from AIDS 2012

Author:
Suzanne Brundage and J. Stephen Morrison
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
From July 22 to July 27, 2012, Washington, D.C., was host to the International AIDS Conference, the biannual Super Bowl of global health and the preeminent forum for reviewing the science, policy, programs, and politics in the fight against HIV/AIDS.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Humanitarian Aid, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Washington

150. Boatloads of Growth: Recapturing America's Share of Asia-Pacific Trade

Author:
Ed Gerwin
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
By 2020, the Asia-Pacific's $10 trillion import market will present vast opportunities to support U.S. economic growth and wider prosperity for America's Middle Class. But, over the past decade, the U.S. share of key Asia-Pacific markets has actually plummeted–by over 40%. Retaking America's share of these rapidly expanding economies—beginning with trade deals like the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP)—could pay huge dividends: over a half trillion dollars in additional U.S. exports, supporting millions of good American jobs.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Asia