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2752. Transition to an IP Environment
- Author:
- Robert M. Entman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- This year's Aspen Institute Conference on Telecommunications Policy began as an attempt to chart a future in which packet-based Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) will supplant traditional switched circuit telephony. Among other things, VoIP appears to be propelling the marginal cost of long-distance telephoning toward zero, a development with profound implications for interexchange carriers. However, prompted in part by Lawrence Strickling's specially-commissioned piece, “The Telecommunications Marketplace in 2002: A Somewhat Fanciful Scenario,” it did not take long for conference participants to realize that a great deal more than the future profitability of long-distance service is at stake.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
2753. Uncharted Territory: New Frontiers of Digital Innovation
- Author:
- David Bollier
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Now that the heady first paroxysms of electronic commerce (e-commerce) have faded—and the online sector has experienced its first major shake-out—thinking about what it means to live in a digital economy is becoming more focused. Established businesses are becoming more strategic in exploiting digital technologies. Venture capitalists are becoming more discriminating in their investments. Governments at all levels are exploring how to integrate the Internet and other technologies to advance their missions.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
2754. Democratizing U.S. Trade Policy
- Author:
- Pat Choate and Bruce Stokes
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Storm clouds signaling trouble with American trade policy have been gathering for some time. In the early 1990s, Congress barely approved creation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and only strenuous efforts by the Clinton administration and the business community ensured passage of legislation creating the World Trade Organization (WTO). In the late 1990s, President Clinton twice failed to obtain congressional renewal of his trade-negotiating authority. The massive demonstrations during the meeting of the world's trade ministers in Seattle in 1999 reflected a widespread public unease with the impact of trade policy on a range of issues, from clear-cutting practices in the forests of Indonesia to the price of AIDS drugs in southern Africa. Today, public opinion polls consistently demonstrate that, although the American public supports freer trade in theory, it often has profound reservations about trade liberalization in practice. And the current global economic slowdown may only further polarize public opinion on trade issues.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Indonesia, South America, and North America
2755. The United States and Southeast Asia: A Policy Agenda for the New Administration
- Author:
- Robert A. Manning and J. Robert Kerrey
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Southeast Asia presents the United States with both an important challenge and an opportunity. American leadership and enlightened action in Southeast Asia in the critical period ahead will almost certainly help stabilize a region undergoing troubling political and economic turbulence. Absent our leadership, democratizing states may founder and economic conditions in a majority of the region's countries will likely worsen. It is in the interest of the people of the United States that we choose the first course. The July 1997 collapse of the Thai baht, which triggered a regional crisis that threatened to destabilize world financial markets, was a chilling reminder of Southeast Asia's importance; the 1999 East Timor crisis is another tragic event that caught the United States unprepared. The 1990–91 Cambodia peace process, on the other hand, was a sterling example of how American leadership can make a difference. We believe the new administration has an opportunity for a fresh start to shape a coherent, proactive approach to the region. As Secretary of State Colin Powell prepares for his visit to the area during the July meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and as the administration considers President Bush's first trip to Asia for the October summit of the leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group (APEC) in Shanghai, this is a timely moment to review the situation in Southeast Asia.
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Southeast Asia
2756. U.S.-Cuban Relations in the 21st Century: A Follow-On Chairman's Report
- Author:
- Julia Sweig and Walter Mead
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- In the last quarter of 1998, following the visit to Cuba of Pope John Paul II, the Council on Foreign Relations convened an Independent Task Force to assess U.S. policy toward Cuba in the post–Cold War era. The Task Force represents a bipartisan group of former State Department officials, congressional staff, labor leaders, and students of Latin American affairs and U.S. foreign policy from a cross section of think tanks, academic and religious institutions, businesses, trade unions, and government agencies. In a chairman's report issued in January 1999, the Task Force recommended a number of steps to strengthen civil society in Cuba, expand people-to-people contact between Cubans and Americans, and “contribute to rapid, peaceful, democratic transition in Cuba while safeguarding the vital interests of the United States.”
- Political Geography:
- United States and Cuba
2757. Missile Defence and European Security
- Author:
- François Heisbourg, Klaus Becher, Alexander Pikayev, and Ivo H. Daalder
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- European NATO countries have been spectators to the debate about defending the US against ballistic missile attacks. While there have been national differences in Europe's reactions to the national missile defence (NMD) programme, it is obvious that most Europeans don't like it. The French seem somewhat more convinced than others that missile defence is inherently foolish and unworkable. Some British experts seem to insist more than others that any programme that might undermine NATO's nuclear deterrence and strategic unity should be avoided. And perhaps Germans, more than others, worry about perceived dangers to the ABM and other arms control treaties, and generally about relations with Russia. Most Europeans at present believe that US defence against long-range ballistic missiles is a slap in the face for Russia, a dangerous provocation for China and an inadequate response to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and missile technology.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Germany
2758. Finance and Changing US-Japan Relations: Convergence Without Leverage—Until Now
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In the postwar era, US-Japan economic relations have been characterized by substantial tensions, yet this has not damaged the underlying security relationship or critically harmed the multilateral economic framework. In fact, these two economies have become more integrated over time even as these tensions played out. These tensions, however, have required an enormous expenditure of political capital and officials' time on both sides of the Pacific and have led to foregone opportunities for institution building and policy coordination. They have deepened since Japan “caught up” with the United States around 1980, and Japanese and US firms began increasingly to compete for profits and market share in the same sectors. Moreover, as both the US and Japanese economies continue to mature – both in terms of the age of their populations and their industrial mix – they will likely face even greater tensions between them over allocating the management and costs of industrial adjustment.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Israel, and East Asia
2759. Foreign Direct Investment in China: Effects on Growth and Economic Performance
- Author:
- Edward M. Graham and Erika Wada
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- By almost all accounts, foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has been one of the major success stories of the past 10 years. Starting from a base of less than $19 billion in 1990, the stock of FDI in China rose to over $300 billion at the end of 1999. Ranked by the stock of inward FDI, China thus has become the leader among all developing nations and second among the APEC nations (only the United States holds a larger stock of inward FDI). China's FDI consists largely of greenfield investment, while inward FDI in the United States by contrast has been generated more by takeover of existing enterprises than by new establishment, a point developed later in this paper. The majority of FDI in China has originated from elsewhere in developing Asia (i.e., not including Japan). Hong Kong, now a largely self-governing “special autonomous region” of China itself, has been the largest source of record. The dominance of Hong Kong, however, is somewhat illusory in that much FDI nominally from Hong Kong in reality is from elsewhere. Some of what is listed as Hong Kong-source FDI in China is, in fact, investment by domestic Chinese that is “round-tripped” through Hong Kong. Other FDI in China listed as Hong Kong in origin is in reality from various western nations and Taiwan that is placed into China via Hong Kong intermediaries. Alas, no published records exist to indicate exactly how much FDI in China that is nominally from Hong Kong is in fact attributable to other nations.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Hong Kong
2760. The Growth and Development of the Internet in the United States
- Author:
- Martin Kenney
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- Rarely does a new technology emerge that galvanizes a dramatic rethinking of the nature of commerce. The Internet is such a technology. At this early stage, it is difficult to appreciate fully the importance of the Internet, but some speculate it might be as momentous as the arrival of the telegraph (Cohen et al. 2000; Standage 1999). Radically new communication technologies such as the Internet have multiple applications and often become ubiquitous. As such, the adoption, diffusion, and development of this new technology provide an especially penetrating view of how different national innovation systems have responded to and shaped the commercial possibilities inherent in the Internet. Of course, such an assessment for an economy as large as that of the U. S. is difficult. It is further complicated by the peculiar way in which communications technologies permeate and facilitate connections and relationships. Often the action of such technologies is imperceptible to most of the actors involved and even to aggregate statistics; e. g., better information transfer between customers and suppliers is not manifested in the finished good, though it is embodied in the good in terms of lower cost and/ or higher quality. Given the diffuse nature and the speed of the Internet's evolution, any analysis can only be tentative.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
2761. Creating an Environment: Developing Venture Capital in India
- Author:
- Rafiq Dossani and Martin Kenney
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- In the last decade, one of the most admired institutions among industrialists and economic policy makers around the world has been the U. S. venture capital industry. A recent OECD (2000) report identified venture capital as a critical component for the success of entrepreneurial high-technology firms and recommended that all nations consider strategies for encouraging the availability of venture capital. With such admiration and encouragement from prestigious international organizations has come various attempts to create an indigenous venture capital industry. This article examines the efforts to create a venture capital industry in India.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and India
2762. On Incentives in Technology Policymaking: What the EU can learn from the U.S. developments
- Author:
- Wolfgang Gick
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper focuses on the incentives political and bureaucratic actors face in the institutional setting of EU technology policy. In examining the implications and assumptions of neoclassical and evolutionary theories of technological change, it tries to answer why some approaches are difficult to translate into policy designs. By focusing on positive policymaking the paper examines why policy learning does not occur in certain institutional settings. A special focus is on the informational constraints that limit policy design. Since evaluation and oversight mechanisms have not been sufficiently developed and accepted within EU settings, there is much room for inefficiency, as a basic agency model with hidden information shows. If political planners have incomplete information about the state of the world, programs cannot be designed efficiently. Hence, a better link between evaluation and program design could reduce inefficiencies. Regarding this point, current discussions in U.S. policymaking seem to focus increasingly on program design effects and policy implementation.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
2763. Decentralized Cooperation and the Future of Regulatory Reform
- Author:
- Pepper D. Culpepper
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Faced with the fact of sweeping regulatory reform, how do companies decide how to respond to a new set of policies? This paper argues that this problem requires a new conception of policymaking: a conception that recognizes the analytical primacy of achieving coordination under uncertainty. I call this challenge the problem of securing decentralized cooperation. Negotiated reforms are a common leitmotif of the current wave of reforms taking place in various European countries, whereas American attempts to reinvent government opt to replace the state with the market. There are general lessons in this approach for both strategies. Unlike the earlier attempts to establish neo-corporatist bargains at the national level in European countries, the success of bargained pacts in Europe will depend increasingly on allowing private actors to design the best solutions to centrally identified problems. The challenges of bringing private information to bear on public policy will increase in the future, and not only in supply-side economic policy reforms. One such area is environmental regulation, which is typically viewed as an area of pure state regulation. This is also an area where market-based solutions are frequently proposed as the most efficient solution to problems of pollution. As I demonstrate through the initiative of the Chesapeake Bay Program in the United States, the challenges identified above for areas of economic policymaking are now relevant to environmental initiatives, even in liberal market economies such as the US and the UK. The extent of government success in such initiatives will be determined by the ability of governments to understand the importance of private information and their capacity to develop private sector institutions that can help procure it. Attempts to replace a malfunctioning state with a market solution, currently very much in vogue in certain quarters in the United States, will fail, as long as they do not recognize the distinctive problems inherent in securing decentralized cooperation.
- Topic:
- Economics and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Kingdom, and Europe
2764. Potential Sources of Financing for U.S. Ventures in Russia
- Author:
- Askar Askarov, Katharine Reed, and Linn E. Schulte-Sasse
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- Following the end of the Cold War, the United States and its allies recognized that it was in their vital security interests to promote stable transitions in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the New Independent States (NIS) of the former Soviet Union. For the most part, such transitions would depend on the efforts of the states in transition themselves, including many that had been newly formed. However, one way in which the Western nations could help was by economic assistance -- both financial and technical.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
2765. How Verification Can Be Used to Ensure Irreversible Deep Reductions of Nuclear Weapons
- Author:
- Wu Jun
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- Verifying nuclear disarmament is a complex technical process. This paper examines the techniques that could be used to verify future nuclear weapon reductions and analyzes the motivation for the nuclear states to accept deep weapon cuts and the prospect for future nuclear reductions. To allow large nuclear reductions and assure credible verification, several steps are suggested in this paper: all nuclear warheads should be registered and tagged; the total inventories of plutonium and high-enriched uranium as well as the fissile cores dismantled from the warheads should be verified; the nuclear delivery vehicles and launcher numbers and types should be monitored as outlined in the START and INF treaties; and agreed nuclear-capable delivery vehicle production should also be monitored.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
2766. Verifying the Agreed Framework
- Author:
- Michael May, Nancy Suski, Robert Schock, William Sailor, Wayne Ruhter, Ronald Lehman, James Hassberger, Zachary Davis, George Bunn, and Chaim Braun
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The Agreed Framework (AF) between the United States of America and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), signed in Geneva on October 21, 1994, has become the centerpiece of recent US efforts to reduce the threat of conflict with North Korea. In particular, it seeks to bring the DPRK into compliance with its obligations under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) not to acquire nuclear weapons. The AF document sets goals, outlines programs, initiates a US-led nuclear-power consortium, and notes linkages. The AF refers to a wider range of diplomatic and international security initiatives, such as the NPT and the agreement on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and is meant to reinforce others, including those related to the reconciliation of the two Koreas.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, East Asia, and Korea
2767. Defending America: Redefining the Conceptual Borders of Homeland Defense
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- There is a wide spectrum of potential threats to the American homeland that do not involve the threat of overt attacks by states using long-range missiles or conventional military forces. Such threats include covert attacks by state actors, state use of proxies, independent terrorist and extremist attacks by foreign groups or individuals, and independent terrorist and extremist attacks by residents of the US. These threats are currently limited in scope and frequency. No pattern of actual attacks on US territory has yet emerged that provides a clear basis for predicting how serious any given form of attack will be in the future, what means of attack will be used, or how lethal new forms of attack will be if they are successful.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
2768. Managing the Global Nuclear Materials Threat: Policy Recommendations
- Author:
- Sam Nunn and Robert E. Ebel
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Despite the end of the Cold War, nuclear weapons continue to pose the most devastating security threat to Americans. Although the risk of a nuclear war destroying civilization has virtually disappeared, the risk that a single nuclear weapon might be used to destroy a major city has increased, particularly given the erosion of control over nuclear material with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Nothing could be more central to international security than ensuring that the essential ingredients of nuclear weapons do not fall into the hands of terrorists or proliferant states. Effective controls over nuclear warheads and the nuclear materials needed to make them are essential to the future of the entire global effort to reduce nuclear arms and stem their spread. At the same time, ensuring protection of public health and the environment in the management of all nuclear materials—from nuclear weapons to nuclear wastes—remains a critical priority. Appropriate management of both safety and security worldwide will be essential to maintaining nuclear fission as an expandable option for supplying the world's greenhouse-constrained energy needs in the twenty-first century.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and Soviet Union
2769. El TLCAN y la Inversióon Extranjera Directa: El Nuevo Escenario
- Author:
- Arturo Borja
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- This working paper looks at the changes that have taken place in North America in foreign direct investment (FDI) after NAFTA. The first part analyses the regime defined in the treaty. The main four principles of this regime are: "national treatment", the prohibition of performance requirements for investors, a more liberal norm for foreign ownership of firms, institutional procedures for the solution of disputes. The rule of origin is identified as the most important measure for non-North American investors. The second part offers an empirical evaluation of changes in FDI flows during the first five years of NAFTA. It compares that period with the five years previous to the implementation of the agreement. The findings show a significant increase in FDI going to Mexico, Canada and the United States. At the same time, there have been changes in the distribution of these flows within the region. More FDI is going now to the United States than to Mexico, and investments between Canada and the U.S. are growing at a higher rate than those between Mexico and the U.S. The paper also identifies different patterns between Mexico and Canada. The increases in Canadian investments suggests that Canadian multinationals are adapting their strategies to the new conditions created by NAFTA.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico
2770. Drug Trafficking in US-Mexican Relations: The Politics of Simulation
- Author:
- Jorge Chabat
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- This document presents the hypothesis that the Mexican and U.S. governments are trapped in their current anti-drug strategy. This strategy causes high levels of violence and corruption in Mexican territory, and cannot be changed because it responds to pressures exerted by American public opinion on its own government. One of the consequences is that the U.S. government is compelled annually to certify the Mexican government's fight against drugs. This certification constrains an accurate evaluation of Mexico's combat against narcotrafficking, because it tends to underestimate failures and exaggerate accomplishments. Nevertheless, the possibility of change in the anti-drug strategy is limited, so this scenario is expected to endure for several years. In this sense on can also expect a better integration f Mexican and U.S. anti-drug policies in the near and medium term.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Crime, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, North America, and Mexico
2771. Brazil, India and South Africa: Three Pathways to Regional (In)security
- Author:
- Varun Sahni
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this paper is to analyze the regional security problems of Brazil, India and South Africa in the Southern Cone of South America, South Asia, and southern Africa, respectively. The three states are treated as emerging powers, i.e., middle powers that have the capability and intention to maneuver their way into great power status. a study of the regional distributions of military and socioeconomic capability suggest Brazilian regional primacy, Indian regional dominance and South African regional supremacy. Furthermore, while Brazil's neighbors ignore its regional status, India's neighbors contest it and South Africa's neighbors acknowledge it. In the first three sections of the paper, the three regional powers studied in their respective regions, with emphasis on the geographical boundaries, historical evolution, cultural characteristics and power dynamics of each region. A comparative analysis of the nuclear option chosen by each emerging power is presented in the section immediately following the three case studies. The final section situates the regional security of the emerging powers in the context of U.S. grand strategy and analyzes security cooperation between Brazil, India, South Africa and the U.S. It is concluded that in their quest to transcend their regional bounds and have a global impact, the regional security context is a critical factor for the emerging powers.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, South Asia, India, South Africa, Brazil, and South America
2772. The Place of the Defense Industry in National Systems of Innovation
- Author:
- Kenneth Flamm, Ann Markusen, Judith Reppy, John Lovering, Claude Serfati, Andrew D. James, Eugene Cobble, Judith Sedaitis, Corinna-Barbara Francis, Dov Dvir, Asher Tishler, and Etel Solingen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
- Abstract:
- A review of current and forthcoming developments in the European defense industry (which here means mainly Britain, France, Germany, and Italy) would lead, I believe, to some fairly clear conclusions. The relationship between sectoral and national (including regional) economic development is changing profoundly. This is above all because the defense industry currently represents a major and extremely significant instance of globalization. However, this is not the kind of globalization described in many summaries.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Middle East, and France
2773. Big Business and the Wealth of South Africa: Policy Issues in the Transition from Apartheid
- Author:
- Andrea E. Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics, University of Pennsylvania
- Abstract:
- The large-scale corporation is at the core of the process of introducing new technologies, developing new organizational and managerial methods, and commercializing new products and services – in plain English, of creating the wealth of nations (Chandler et al. 1997). The manner and extent to which corporations will promote a country's economic and social development depends largely on how well the institutions of the market, on the one hand, and of government, on the other, work together in that country. Modern history suggests that such firms emerged and evolved differently in various economic, political, and social settings. Many thought that trade opening, capital market liberalization, and the convergence in consumers tastes and economic ideologies would lead to a convergence in the forms of organizing, managing, and financing business activity. Nonetheless, even in OECD countries, globalization has not brought about the expected convergence of institutions towards a unique model of interrelations between business, governments, markets, and the society at large. This outcome strengthens the hand of those arguing that purely economic, technological, or legal explanations fail to explain the contours of big business and their behaviours. This is almost a truism in all countries, but it appears particularly challenging in analyzing changes in emerging countries undergoing a series of deep economic, political, and social transformations.
- Topic:
- Human Rights and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and South Africa
2774. The United States and Europe: Smooth Sailing or Storm Clouds Ahead?
- Author:
- William Hitchcock
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Two years ago, when many of us gathered together in the dramatic Alpine setting of Leukerbad to consider the recent past and the likely future of US-European relations, our group was full of dire prognostications. Russia was headed toward collapse, the EU looked weak after the Yugoslav war, NATO expansion appeared to be dividing Europe; the introduction of the euro looked liked a risky gamble that might worsen trans-Atlantic relations; and most disturbing for me as an American, my government was preoccupied with the Lewinsky scandal and the future of the Clinton presidency seemed at risk. Indeed, one of our colleagues, discussing the crisis over after-dinner drinks, declared that Clinton would resign from the presidency within matter of weeks.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
2775. Through the Glass Ceiling: Towards a New Security Regime for Europe?
- Author:
- Anne Deighton
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The 'St Malo process' which has being taking shape since December 1998, will bring a qualitative change in the EU's role as an international institution. Many of the big initiatives that the Union undertakes are not fully understood early on - unexpected, and sometimes unintended consequences can result from the changes that the EU agrees to. It takes time for the institutional implications of major changes to emerge: the Single Act was, in the mid 80s, often seen as the 'elephant that gave birth to a mouse'; and the Maastricht Treaty as at once called too federalist, and too timid. Likewise, the exact configuration of the changes that St Malo may bring will also take time to become clear. 'Militarising' the EU, however, ends one of the last policy taboos of a 'civilian-power' European Union and breaks through the 'glass ceiling' of the EU's self-denying ordinance against the adoption of the instruments of military force which has existed since its inception. This paper assesses how far these changes got by the summer of 2000 and asks whether the last eighteen months are one stage in the messy birth of a post-Cold War pan-European defence and security regime with institutions based around NATO and the EU. Europe's institutional configuration tends to matter more to Europeans than to our transatlantic partners; but institutions are the reality of contemporary European international politics. 'Multilateral institutionalism' too, is inescapable, and how institutions relate to each other has become an increasingly significant question. To accept this does not meant that states do not matter, for states also use institutions, as well as being shaped by institutions.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Switzerland
2776. NATO's Past, NATO's Future
- Author:
- John Lewis Gaddis
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The North Atlantic Treaty Organization stands at a crossroads. Critical choices lie ahead that will determine its future. I begin my paper this way because it is customary to begin pronouncements on NATO with this kind of statement. Indeed papers and speeches on NATO have been beginning this way through the half-century of the alliance's existence - and yet NATO never quite reaches whatever crisis the speaker or writer has in mind. NATO seems to have a life of its own, which is remarkably detached from the shocks and surprises that dominate most of history, certainly Cold War history. And NATO's members, both actual and aspiring, seem bent on keeping it that way. So what is a crossroad anyway in historical terms? Most of my colleagues, I think, would say that it's a turning point: a moment at which it becomes clear that the status quo can no longer sustain itself, at which decisions have to be made about new courses of action, at which the results of those decisions shape what happens for years to come. The Cold War was full of such moments: the Korean War, Khrushchev's de-Stalinization speech, the Hungarian and Suez crises, the Berlin Wall, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Six Day War, the Tet offensive, Nixon's trip to China, the invasion of Afghanistan, the reunification of Germany, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the end of the Cold War itself. What strikes me as a historian, though, is how little impact these turning points had on NATO's history - even General deGaulle, who tried to turn himself personally into a turning point. The structure and purposes of the alliance today are not greatly different from what they were when NATO was founded. Which is to say that NATO's history, compared to that of most other Cold War institutions, is uneventful, bland, and even (let us be frank) a little dull. That very uneventfulness, though, is turning out to be one of the more significant aspects of Cold War history. It surprised the historians, who have been able to cite no other example of a multi-national alliance that has had the robustness, the durability, the continuity, some might say the apparent immortality, of this one. It has also surprised the international relations theorists, for it is a fundamental principle of their discipline that alliances form when nations balance against threats. It follows, then, that as threats dissipate, alliances should also - and yet this one shows no signs of doing so. An instrument of statecraft, which is what an alliance normally is, has in this instance come to be regarded as a fundamental interest of statecraft. That requires explanation, which is what I should like to attempt here.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union, Germany, and Berlin
2777. U.S.-EU Relations after the Introduction of the Euro and the Reinvention of European Security and Defence
- Author:
- Pal Dunay
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The current phase and the prospects of U.S. - EU relations can be analysed from different vantage points. The most logical is to deal with the position of the main actors, the United States or the European Union. This paper makes an attempt to analyse the prospects of U.S. - EU relations in light of two major developments: the beginning of the third phase of the economic and monetary union, symbolised by the introduction of the Euro and the verbal (re-)establishment of European defence. The paper makes an attempt to pay attention to the arguments of the United States, though the emphasis is on the European perception of the possible complications of the new phase of evolution that European integration may generate in the relations between the two entities.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
2778. Beyond Enlargement: NATO's Role in Russia's Relations with the West
- Author:
- S. Neil MacFarlane
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- In 1996, ex-NATO Defence College fellow Dmitrii Trenin wrote that "in spite of the numerous public declarations of intention by Russia and the United States, Russia and NATO, and Russia and the European Union, so far no reliable foundation for partnership has been laid." Although the remark is four years old, there is little to argue with here. The proposition remains equally valid today. Four years ago, one might have asked: so what? Given the state of affairs in Russia, it didn't matter much anyway. However, things are changing. For the first time in ten years, secessionist wars, submarine disasters and fires in television towers notwithstanding, NATO and the West face a pivotal moment in the effort to normalize the relationship with Russia. The executive has secured reasonable control over the legislature. It is moving towards the reestablishment of central authority vis-à-vis the regions. The government is restoring a disciplined and reasonably orderly approach to foreign and security policy. There is increasingly strong evidence of sustained Russian economic recovery. This is a moment, consequently, of both opportunity and risk in the West's relations with Russia. It is an appropriate time to review where we have been, where we are, where we want to be, and what the role of NATO is in getting us there.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
2779. Kosovo's Evolving Contest: Security, Policy and Sovereignty
- Author:
- Charles H. Norchi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- It will be recalled that Yugoslavia was created in 1918 in the wake of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The new state was peopled by religiously distinct ethnic groups of Serbs, Croats, Slovenians and Muslims. After World War II and German occupation, Josip Broz Tito, the Croat leader of the Yugoslav resistance, reunited the country as the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY). Member Republics of the SFRY were Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia and the autonomous provinces of Voyvodina and Kosovo. Kosovo had been incorporated into Yugoslavia in 1945, but unlike the five federal units of Yugoslavia, it did not have the constitutional right to secede from the federation. With its majority Albanian population, it held the same status of Vojvadina with its majority Hungarian population. Tito's rule was harsh. His aim was to establish a public order straddling capitalism and communism in a multi-ethnic society. His foreign policy direction was non-aligned. Tito died in 1980 and SFRY leadership was assumed by a Presidential Council intended to represent the republics and autonomous territories with council chairmanship rotating among members.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Kosovo
2780. The Role of the EU in Peace-Building in the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Fred Tanner
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The disappearance of the overwhelming threat of Cold War confrontation has left the Europeans more sensitive to challenges, risks and threats from their southern periphery. The wars in the Persian Gulf and in the Balkans, the bloody civil war in Algeria, the recurrence of deadly violence between Israelis and Palestinians, the spread of religious extremism and the increasing migratory pressures from the South have obliged Europe and NATO to pay greater attention to their near abroad in the South. Given the region's root causes of conflict such as poverty, economic cleavages and uncontrolled population growth, the North's balancing strategy of the Cold War days was replaced by policies of engagements, politico-economic partnerships and dialogue initiatives. The EU, recalling its Euro-Arab special relations of the 1970s, lobbied to get its share in the post-Gulf War peace process, that brought together for the first time Arab states with Israel and Western "sponsors" in the multilateral setting of Madrid. Short-cut by the Arab-Israeli bilateral tracks under US patronage after Oslo, the EU changed gears in 1995 and founded in Barcelona a Euro-Med partnership with all Mediterranean states, including those of North Africa (with the exception of Libya), the Near East and the Palestinian Authority. This Partnership includes a political, economic and social dimension. The founders of the Partnership hoped that it would turn into the Mediterranean equivalent of NAFTA on the one hand and provide a support structure for the Middle East process on the other. The "Political and Security Chapter" of the Euro-Med Partnership was not only reminiscent of the Helsinki Process of the Cold War period, it also created a political platform of North-South co-operation in the Mediterranean that kept the Americans out and the Israelis in. The exclusion of the US from Barcelona (even as observer) was certainly one of the reasons why NATO enhanced its own security co-operation with some Southern Mediterranean states. Today, the Barcelona process finds itself in more or less direct competition with NATO with regards to soft security projection towards the South. This paper examines future scenarios of Euro-Med relations as well as of Atlantic relations over Mediterranean issues - under the assumption that Europe would become an international security actor. It will suggest that - in the long term - a successful Common European Security and Defence Policy (CESDP) would strengthen the EU security and crisis management capabilities in the Mediterranean region. The CESDP would entitle the EU to enter the domain of security-cooperation in the fields of peacekeeping, defence training and education and the use of military assets for humanitarian operations. But two obstacles will have to be overcome: First, the relations to NATO dialogue programmes in the region will have to be sorted out and second, the Southern partner states need to be assured that the EU headline force projection capabilities will not make Europe more interventionist in the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
2781. Russian Perception of European Security
- Author:
- Yuri Nazarkin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Historically, Russia was always threatened from three sides: from the West it was threatened and invaded at different periods of its history by Poland, Sweden, France and Germany; from the South, its traditional rival and enemy was the Ottoman empire; from the East, China and Japan. Throughout its history Russia had to be on the alert along all its borders. Though at present there are no direct military threats from any of the three directions, the current Russian security planning takes into account all the three directions. However, the problem of European security is the highest priority in Russian foreign and security policy. There are a number of reasons for this.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
2782. Recoiling from Russia
- Author:
- André Liebich
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The above manifesto, entitled "A Horror is Haunting Europe," was published on the front page of one of Europe's premier newspapers in the thick of this year's presidential campaign in Russia. It was signed by some two hundred intellectuals and public figures, the French being the most strongly represented but including signatories from fifteen other European countries and a number of Americans. Among the recognisable names are those of media and cultural personalities such as Costas Gavras, Jean-Luc Godard, John Le Carré, Bernardo Bertolucci, Jane Birkin, Vanessa Redgrave and Barbara Hendricks. Many of the others are widely known academics, such as Umberto Eco and Noam Chomsky, as well as a minor galaxy of familiar Parisian personalities.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, America, and Europe
2783. Russia's Eurasian Security Policy
- Author:
- Roland Dannreuther
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Ever since Catherine the Great pronounced that 'Russia is a European country', Russia has been an inescapable part of the European balance of power. Russia's European credentials are indisputable. The larger majority of the Russian population, and most of the major economic centres, are located in the European part of Russia. Russians are Christian, if of the eastern orthodox faith, and Russian poets, novelists, artists and composers have made an extraordinary contribution to European culture. Russians perceive themselves as part of European civilisation, not least when confronted with other ancient civilisations, such as Iran, India and China. Moreover, other European actors have recognised Russia as an intrinsic part of the European order, even if at times this recognition has been mixed with strong doses of suspicion and fear. But, Russia is not only in Europe. Geographically, the larger part of Russia's territory, however inhospitable and poorly populated, lies in Asia. Culturally, Russia has periodically been hermetically sealed from mainstream developments in Europe. During the medieval period, Russia lay under Tartar rule; during the Soviet period, the borders were, in Stalin's words, under 'lock and key' and Western influences were rigorously excluded. The consequent backwardness of Russia, which has been a consequence of these intermittent linkages with the more developed West, has diluted Russia's European credentials. Russia's Asian destiny was also a deliberate act of state policy with Russia's borders being continually expanded into Asian territory. Russia had a similar experience to the United States with a continental expansion to the Pacific, which was driven, as in America, by entrepreneurial colonists who subsequently decimated the local populations. Towards the South, Russia followed European imperial practice and engaged in a mission civilisatrice to bring European-style rule over purportedly backward peoples. The Russian imperial experience differed from the British and French examples in one critical element: no division was made between the metropolitan centre and empire and thus no clearly demarcated border existed between the Russian state and its imperial appendages. The Tsarist military historian, Mikhail Vernukov, argued that this absence of a separation involved a different imperial practice when compared with 'Englishmen in India who do their utmost to avoid mingling with the natives . . . Our strength lies in the fact that . . . we have assimilated subject races, mingling affably with them'. For these and other reasons, Russia's European credentials have been questioned, not only by other Europeans but by Russians themselves. For west Europeans, the vast geographical expanse, the relative backwardness and large population, the heady mix of despotism and mysticism, has made Russia an alien entity, the 'other' from which the enlightened rational West can be contrasted. The well-known French proverb - 'Grattez le Russe, et vous trouverez le Tartare' - illustrates this European scepticism well. Russians themselves have often been drawn to emphasising the exceptionalism of Russia, not as in America because Russia represents the 'new' rather than the 'old' world, but because Russia's unique position between Europe and Asia makes it belong to neither and the fusion of East and West preserves the benefits of Western civilisation but without its decadent rationalism and materialism. The notion of Moscow as the Third Rome has been a continual source of attraction to the more mystical members of Russian society. This complex set of historical experiences, mutual perceptions and attitudes have contributed to the frequent shifts in Russia's policy towards the rest of Europe. At times, Russia has fully embraced the West so as to 'catch up' and modernise; at other times, Moscow has retreated into its citadels so as to preserve its uniqueness and the universality of its message. In terms of security policy, Russian leaders have been consistent in promoting as fluid and weak a set of alliance structures in Europe as possible. Alexander I, at the Congress of Vienna, was arguably the first to conceive of the notion of collective security and this legacy has been followed in more recent times with Gorbachev's promotion of a 'common European home' and the Soviet and post-Soviet predilection for defining the CSCE/OSCE as the overarching framework for the European security order. These collective security proposals, which have consistently baffled and irritated other Europeans powers, have had a strong realpolitik dimension, alongside the requisite dose of mysticism. Such schemes are designed to exclude a concentration of power in Europe, which might be directed against Russia, and to prevent the type of direct aggression which Russia suffered through the Napoleonic and Nazi invasions. Such flexible arrangements are also the most favourable mechanism for promoting Russian influence in Europe and to securing Russia's consistent desire, even obsession, to be treated as an equal with the other European great powers. It is clear that the West's rejection of the proposed collective security arrangement for the post-Cold War European order, and the corresponding expansion of NATO, has been viewed in Moscow as a humiliating geopolitical defeat. The sense of betrayal, of promises made by the West and then reneged upon, has been profoundly felt. With the perception of a Europe excluding and marginalising Russia, there has been a turn towards the East in the search for alternative avenues for projecting Russia's power and influence. Again, there are historical parallels with the nineteenth century when the concerted European effort to block Russian expansion into the Balkans, with its ultimate pan-Orthodox goal of capturing Constantinople, led to Russian energies being re-directed towards expansion in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In a similar vein, in March 1997, the Russian Presidential Spokesman, Sergei Yastrzhembskii, stated at the Russian-USA Helsinki summit: 'If NATO expansion is going to continue . . . Russia will be confronted with a need to reconsider its foreign-policy priorities. Our relations with China, India . . . and Iran are developing well'. The objective of this paper is to assess the nature, complexities and the relative success and failure of Russia's purported 'turn' to the East. Three areas will be briefly surveyed: recent Russian policy towards the Middle East, to Central Asia and to China.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Europe
2784. Russia, EU, U.S. and the Balkans: What Future?
- Author:
- Roberto Aliboni
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Unlike what has happened with Central-eastern Europe and the Eastern Balkans, policies conducted by the West towards Western Balkans after the end of the Cold War have had a largely reactive character. By and large, although the fragmentation of Yugoslavia had been widely feared and anticipated, developments in Western Balkans took the West aback because of their violent and uncompromising character. For this reason, with respect to this area the European countries and the United States have shown continuous hesitations and oscillations on how their interests in the area had to be understood, how much they had to feel involved and what they had to do.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Yugoslavia, and Balkans
2785. Redefining Sovereignty . The Use of Force After the End of the Cold War. New Options, Lawful and Legitimate?
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The conference was organised by the Institute for International Affairs (IAI) with the support of the Centre for High Defence Studies (CASD), the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the NATO Office for Information and Press and the Thyssen Foundation. It was held in Rome, at the Centre for High Defence Studies, on 24 and 25 November 2000.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, NATO, Cold War, Human Rights, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States, Germany, and Rome
2786. EU's Emerging Military Policy and the Mena Areas
- Author:
- Roberto Aliboni
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The American component in the EU Middle East Policy cannot be considered in isolation. The transatlantic relationship has a complex character and, for this reason, there are linkages between different issues. The influence of transatlantic relations and the U.S. on what the EU does or does not do in the Middle East is not necessarily tied to the Middle East itself and to specific Middle Eastern issues debated in transatlantic relations. It may stem from other issues.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, and North Africa
2787. The Role of International Organisations in the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Roberto Aliboni
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The Mediterranean is an area where many different political, societal and cultural entities happen to stay in touch with one another. In some respects it may be regarded as a region in itself, in particular because of environment and a number of dwindling premodern, subcultural similarities. In general, though, it can hardly be regarded as a regional entity, i.e. endowed with a significant inner coherence. There is no doubt, that what characterises the Mediterranean area is its quintessential inter-regional structure. If we look at the initiatives to institutionalise inter-Mediterranean relations in the last few decades, we see that they are in fact of both regional and inter-regional character. In the functional realm, a clear example of Mediterranean regional organisation is the “Blue Planâ€, set out within the framework of the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) with a view to manage common environmental resources relating to the sea. An example referring to the political realm can be drawn from the Cold War, namely the Mediterranean component of the Non-Aligned Movement. At that time, within that Movement there was a Mediterranean feeling shared by Southern European as well as Third World countries belonging to the area. Such common feeling was motivated by the perception of a cultural and political oppression enforced by imperialist quarters (the West, USA, NATO). This gave way to a search for a Mediterranean region de-linked from Western dominance.
- Topic:
- Security, Environment, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
2788. The WTO and its Institutional Future - Evaluating the Lessons of Seattle
- Author:
- Isabella Falautano
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- There has been a lot of talk in the last months about the results of the third ministerial meeting of the WTO, held in Seattle from November 30th to December 3rd, 1999. In Seattle, the WTO was expected to adopt a proposal for the launching of a comprehensive new Round – the so-called Millennium Round – encompassing a broad and ambitious range of topics, from the more traditional challenges to the new trade issues. Instead, the meeting finished in a dramatic failure and the risk now is that the trading system of the twenty-first century will drift into a fog of uncertainty. One should point out that, at the end of the Uruguay Round a renegotiation was foreseen in the two key sectors of agriculture and services, the so-called "built-in" or progressive agenda. While the scenario for a global round, as I will try to clarify, is improbable to say the least in the short term, sectoral negotiations in agriculture and services will be starting in the year 2000. Nevertheless, the general context in which such negotiations are being launched, and in which the pro-Round coalition is trying to built consensus, is undoubtedly difficult.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
2789. Iran and Iraq: Sanctions and Dual Containment - A View from the European Union
- Author:
- Roberto Aliboni
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In recent years, many (non-American as well as American) analysts have put in question the wisdom and rationale of the US doctrine of the “dual containment” towards Iraq and Iran. Rather than being a strategic doctrine, the “dual containment” is a state of affairs reflecting the fact that the US was left without viable political options in the region by a set of mistakes whose cost it will be able to recover only in a more or less distant time: in particular, the full and blind support to the Shah's regime against any nationalist, liberal and religious groups in the country and the support to Iraq in the war against Iran, which convinced the Iraqi ruling regime of being entitled to exercise in the region a kind of proconsular power and prepared the country politically and militarily to its unfortunate attempt at swallowing Kuwait.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, Iran, Kuwait, and Arab Countries
2790. Including Libya? EU, Arab World, and the U.S.
- Author:
- Roberto Aliboni
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The Libyan leadership's decision to hand over the two citizens suspected of carrying out the terrorist attack against a Pan Am civilian aircraft over Lockerbie on December 12, 1988 undoubtedly marks a change in Tripoli's foreign policy. It remains to be seen how durable this change will be and whether international policies may consolidate it or make it less reversible than Tripoli's record would suggest. While one can only speculate on how long Libya's new foreign policy direction will last, the second question-whether this direction can be consolidated - is the basic matter addressed in this paper. Libya is a special and, to some extent, extreme case in a range of post-Cold War developments and changes which concern a good number of Arab countries. The Libyan case must be put in this more general perspective.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Libya, and Arab Countries
2791. Challenges for a New Administration
- Author:
- Aleksandar D. Jovovic
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy hosted the fall 2000 meetings of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of possible foreign policy strategic surprises facing the incoming Administration. To provide a starting point for the discussion, working group members identified more than a dozen scenarios that could: Take a new administration by surprise (an event not covered in the transition briefing books). Present a considerable challenge to the President. Pose a significant discontinuity or shift in the current trend line.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
2792. Colombia at the Crossroads
- Author:
- Aleksandar D. Jovovic
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy hosted the spring session of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of strategic surprise in Colombia. After a presentation on four potential scenarios that may face Colombia (see next page), Schlesinger Working Group core members and Colombia specialists examined the key factors driving events in this conflict-scarred country, as well as possible outcomes for current political initiatives. Among other issues, the participants touched on the range and dynamics of the present conflict, its effects on Colombian institutions, the country's neighbors, as well as on the role of powerful outside players, primarily the United States. Upon defining these key factors, participants identified a broad outline for future policy towards Colombia, which would safeguard key U.S. interests, defined as an end to the conflict, political and economic stability in the region, and the suppression of the drug trade. The following report is based on the informal and general findings of the group and is therefore not a consensus document.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America
2793. U.S. Immigration Policy: Unilateral and Cooperative Responses to Undocumented Immigration
- Author:
- Marc R. Rosenblum
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- This paper addresses the problem of undocumented immigration to the UnitedStates from Mexico, and current and proposed policies designed to control these undocumented flows. Undocumented migration from Mexico is a subject that already receives disproportionate attention in the sense that many-and probably most-undocumented immigrants in the United States do not illegally cross the U.S.-Mexican border, yet INS enforcement efforts focus overwhelmingly on these border crossers. Although undocumented Mexican migration to the United States is disproportionately targeted, the subject merits analytical attention for three reasons. First, undocumented immigration from Mexico to the United States is the largest illicit migration flow in the world, at about one million crossings per year. Second, partly for this reason, U.S. enforcement efforts devoted to controlling Mexican immigration cost taxpayers billions of dollars, and have resulted in the transformation of the INS into the largest civilian gun-carrying force in the world. And third, immigration remains central to U.S.-Mexican bilateral relations (Binational Commission 1997, Rico 1992, Rosenblum 1998) as U.S. immigration policy-making takes on an increasingly transnational character (Rosenblum 1999 and forthcoming).
- Topic:
- Human Rights and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States and Mexico
2794. ARPA Does Windows: The Defense Underpinning of the PC Revolution
- Author:
- Glenn Fong
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Studies Association
- Abstract:
- Personal computer (PC) technologies that have revolutionized our everyday lives whether at the office or at home have been deeply rooted in public sector initiatives as well. As communities throughout the country, and countries around the world rush to clone their own Silicon Valleys, the governmental underpinnings of the original Valley's success should not be overlooked.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Government, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
2795. Globalization and Its Impact Across Sectors
- Author:
- Gerald A. Hendrickson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Studies Association
- Abstract:
- Globalization is not a topic that immediately attracts the attention of most public administrators. However, understanding the implications of globalization for labor markets across economic sectors can affect the way public sector managers approach personnel planning. This paper attempts to enhance this understanding in three ways. It will carefully examine some of the issues around globalization, subject the ideas from the dominant perspectives to empirical testing and propose alternative hypotheses. In the end, the mission of this paper is to provide some insight into the kind of labor environment that public sector managers will encounter as their plans come to fruition in the future.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
2796. Domestic Politics and International Relations in Trade Policymaking: The United States and Japan in the GATT Uruguay Round Agriculture Negotiations
- Author:
- Christopher C. Meyerson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Studies Association
- Abstract:
- This paper is circulated for discussion and comment only and should not be quoted without permission of the author. Linked to efforts to promote trade liberalization through trade negotiations has been the recognition of the need not only to better understand the relationship between domestic politics and international relations in American trade policymaking, but also to analyze more effectively the relationship between domestic politics and international relations in other countries' trade policymaking processes.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, America, and Israel
2797. Designing an Efficient International Regime for Global Protection of Coral Reefs
- Author:
- Svetlana Morozova
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Studies Association
- Abstract:
- International regimes have been a major focus of research in International Relations and Political Economy since the end of the 1970s. Theoretical regime studies owe a great deal of progress to the scholars researching international environmental protection, such as Peter Haas (1989, 1992, 1993), Oran Young (1977, 1982, 1989), Robert Keohane and Marc Levy (1993). From the Young's model of institutional bargaining (1989) to Haas's research on epistemic community activities (1989), we observed the importance of environmental decision-making structures for stimulating the study of institutional birth, maintenance and decline of international regimes.
- Topic:
- Environment, Globalization, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United States
2798. Public Opinion As A Constraint On U.S. Foreign Policy: Assessing The Perceived Value Of American And Foreign Lives
- Author:
- John Mueller
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Studies Association
- Abstract:
- Although Americans are extremely sensitive to American casualties, they seem to be remarkably insensitive to casualties suffered by foreigners including essentially uninvolved—that is, innocent—civilians. Several conclusions emerge from an examination of all the cases in which American troops have been deployed on a non-advisory basis since 1941 in situations that were actually or potentially dangerous.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
2799. "Thinking Innovatively About U.S. Military Force"
- Author:
- John A. Nagl and Elizabeth O. Young
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Studies Association
- Abstract:
- The confluence of the end of the Cold War and the rise of ethnonationalistic conflicts has led to a proliferation of complex humanitarian emergencies (CHEs) around the world. Internal conflicts which combine large scale displacements of people, mass famine and fragile or failing economic, social and political institutions are becoming commonplace; war remains a common feature of the international landscape despite growing global interdependence. While the end of the Cold War has reduced the risk of great power conflict, it has also decreased the perceived constraints on proxy wars, and as a result, over forty unresolved conflicts currently fester, simmer or rage. International peacekeeping forces alone are unlikely to achieve lasting results in most cases, but they can stop the fighting and assist in bringing about fair and lasting resolutions.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy and National Security
- Political Geography:
- United States
2800. Report of The Carter Center's Fourth Observation of Chinese Village Elections 4 Jan 2000
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- At the invitation of the Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA), People's Republic of China, The Carter Center sent a delegation to observe villager committee (VC) elections in Hebei Province from January 4 to 13, 2000. The delegation was led by Ambassador Gordon L. Streeb, Associate Executive Director of the Center, and made up of nine Center staff members, election experts and China scholars from various universities in the United States and Denmark. This was the fourth time since 1997 that the Center has observed village elections in China and the first time that an international organization has been invited to observe a primary VC election.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Denmark