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Begin New Search Political Geography United States Content Type Working Paper Publication Year within 25 Years

2701. A Military for the 21st Century: Lessons from the Recent Past

Author:
Anthony C. Zinni
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, more than any other event, marked the collapse of the Soviet Union. I remember crossing through a vacant Checkpoint Charlie into East Berlin. No one on either side knew quite what we could or could not do, since it all happened so fast. The confusion and stark contrast between East and West Berlin made it hard to believe that we had once feared this collapsed Warsaw Pact or seen it as a serious global competitor. The West always contended that communism was a fundamentally flawed system that would eventually fail. Despite that belief, we were caught by surprise by the sudden and total end of the Soviet empire and the system that governed half the world. At the time, our President proudly drew what appeared to be the logical conclusion from these events: that there was to be a new world order. Others talked of reaping a peace dividend, since defense spending surely could be reduced.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Berlin

2702. Normalizing U.S.-Russian Relations

Author:
Eugene B. Rumer and Richard D. Sokolsky
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Ten years after the end of the Cold War, mutual hopes that a comprehensive partnership would replace containment as the major organizing theme in U.S.-Russian relations have not been realized. The record of the 1990s has left both Russia and the United States unsatisfied. Russia looks back at the decade with bitterness and a feeling of being marginalized and slighted by the world's sole remaining superpower. It is also disappointed by its experience with Western-style reforms and mistrustful of American intentions. The United States is equally disappointed with Russia's lack of focus, inability to engage effectively abroad, and failure to implement major reforms at home. A comprehensive partnership is out of the question. Renewed competition or active containment are also not credible as organizing principles. Russia's economic, military and political/ideological weakness makes it an unlikely target of either U.S. competition or containment. Not only is Russia no longer a superpower, but its status as a regional power is in doubt.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

2703. Revising the Two-Major Theater War Standard

Author:
Hans Binnendijk and Richard L. Kugler
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
One of the toughest challenges facing the Department of Defense (DOD) is translating strategic policy into concrete guidelines for preparing U.S. military forces. A defense planning standard is a set of judgments and directives for performing this key function. Normally this standard has three associated roles: to determine the size of forces and their main missions; to establish program and budgetary priorities; and to inform the Congress and the public of the rationale behind the defense strategy and force posture. For example, the Kennedy administration standard was a two and one-half war strategy, and the Nixon administration had a one and one-half war strategy. To guide its planning, the Carter administration used the standard of multitheater war with the Soviet Union in Europe and the Persian Gulf. The Reagan administration applied an Illustrative Planning Scenario that contemplated global war with the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2704. Renovating U.S. Strategic Arms Control Policy

Author:
Richard D. Sokolsky
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
There has been a tectonic shift in the strategic landscape since the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) negotiations concluded in the early 1990s. The Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact are defunct. America and Russia are no longer enemies and the nuclear arms race between the two countries is, for all intents and purposes, over. The threat of a surprise nuclear attack has all but vanished along with any plausible scenario between the two countries that could escalate to a nuclear war. The strategic warning time for reconstitution of a credible conventional military threat to Europe can now be measured in years. The likelihood that Russia could marshal the economic resources for clandestine production of new nuclear weapon systems on a militarily significant scale is extremely remote. The most serious security threats emanating from Russia today—poorly safeguarded nuclear warheads and materials and the potential proliferation of such material and expertise to states of concern—reflect profound weakness. Simply put, the proliferation risks attendant to a Russia in the throes of a long-term structural crisis are a far more serious security threat than SS–18 heavy missiles destroying U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in a preemptive first strike.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

2705. The U.S. Strategic Posture Review: Issues for the New Administration

Author:
M. Elaine Bunn and Richard D. Sokolsky
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Before the next administration decides on a strategic force posture, national missile defense (NMD) architecture, and arms control objectives for both offensive and defensive forces, it needs to grapple with questions of strategy and doctrine. Any consideration of alternative defense strategies and their implications for nuclear forces and missile defenses should start with a basic set of questions: For what purposes will we need nuclear weapons and missile defenses in the future and under what conditions would these missions be carried out? What countries will pose strategic threats to vital U.S. national interests over the next 10–20 years? What hostile actions are we trying to deter, and what are the proper character, size, and mix of nuclear weapons and defenses in deterring these threats?
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States

2706. The Strategic Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

Author:
Judith S. Yaphe and Kori N. Schake
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Scholars and other spcialists on Iran have argued about that country's political intentions and strategic amibitions since the overthrow of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi and the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. In the 1980s Iran's efforts to export its revolution and support international terrorism raised the question of whether a moderate Islamic republic that was able to deal with the West could ever exist. The death of the Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989 and the succession of Ali Hashimi-Rafsanjani as president raised new issues for the 1990s. As the European and American oil and investment communities considered the race to open Iran commercially, scholars and diplomats debated Iranian efforts to recover from nearly a decade of war and revolution. They compared the merits of the European approach of initiating critical dialogue with the U.S. policy of containing and isolating Iran. Neither approach seemed to have much impact, both conceded, and Iranians continued to sort out their domestic political agenda and to decide how best to protect their strategic and national interests. The U.S. Government, for example, tried to estimate how much time and money Iran would need to modernize its military and to acquire new weapons systems despite projected low oil prices and the country's need to rebuild its damaged and neglected civilian and industrial infrastructure.1 The assumption underlying the U.S. projections was that Iran would be pursuing weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear technology and longrange missile systems.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

2707. Youth as Social and Political Agents: Issues in Post-Settlement Peace Building

Author:
Siobhán McEvoy-Levy
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
There is a growing body of literature dealing with the roles of children and young people in armed conflict and the effects of such conflict on their development (Brett McCallin, 1996; Cohn Goodwin-Gill, 1994; Klare, 1999; Machel, 1996; Wessells, 1998). This literature based on extensive field case work has provided important evidence of intensive child and youth involvement in warfare, the reasons for that involvement, the processes of induction into armed groups, the activities of children in these groups - as fighters, cooks, spies, couriers, and in providing sexual services - and their immediate - term rehabilitation needs once a war has been ended. Many of these studies make recommendations about demobilization, reintegration and prevention with an emphasis on economic, social, and psychological measures and the effective implementation of relevant international law. Although much has been discovered and is actively utilized in the domain of advocacy, most studies recognize that much more needs to be done to develop research and good practice particularly in the area of healing war - torn societies across a range of social, psychological, economic and security interests and needs and using indigenous beliefs and rituals as peace building resources (Wessells 2000).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

2708. Caribbean Tourism: Igniting the Engines of Sustainable Growth

Author:
Anthony T. Bryan
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Tourism drives economic growth in ways that make it one of the best engines for job creation and development for poor countries that possess natural beauty and relevant infrastructure. The industry is highly labor intensive and encourages entrepreneurship. Under its ambit, property owners, restaurants, and local suppliers of goods and services, among others, develop the habits of risk taking without which no economy can realize its full potential. Tourism holds out the prospect of a better life for those stakeholders who make money from it. Not unlike trade, it improves an economy's competitiveness. Trade does so because it stimulates local suppliers to match the quality and variety of imported goods. Tourism does so because returning travelers to a destination demand the goods and services they have seen in other countries (Elliott 2001).
Topic:
Development, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and Caribbean

2709. Protest and Collaboration: Transnational Civil Society Networks and the Politics of Summitry and Free Trade in the Americas

Author:
Patricio Korzeniewicz and William C. Smith
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
This paper examines the politics of hemispheric integration exemplified by the Summits of the Americas held in Miami (1994), Santiago (1998), and Quebec (2001) and the negotiations over the creation of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). Our basic premise is that political and institutional arrangements articulating state, society, and economy in Latin America are currently in the midst of a process of reconfiguration unleashed by the acceleration of globalization and attendant crises of state-centered development strategies. More specifically, we believe the Americas are witnessing the emergence of an ensemble of new social and political actors, among the most salient of which are new social movements and civil society organizations (CSOs), organized in networks operating at the domestic, regional, and global levels.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, America, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, North America, and Miami

2710. The Impact of MERCOSUR on the Automobile Industry

Author:
Jerry Haar and Thomas A. O'Keefe
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
A transformation of the automotive industry, particularly the segment involved in production of finished vehicles, has taken place in the Southern Common Market (Mercado Común del Sur/Mercado Comum do Sul—MERCOSUR/MER-COSUL) region of South America, at a time when MERCOSUR member states opened their economies to global competition and to participation in an ambitious subregional economic integration project. This Agenda Paper provides an overview of the factors that have contributed to this recent industry transformation. The paper also examines the factors involved in the formal incorporation of the automotive sector into the MERCOSUR project and discusses the impact this development is like-ly have on the subregional automobile industry,
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, South America, Latin America, and North America

2711. Preferential Treatment in Trade: Is There Any Room Left in the Americas?

Author:
Fernando Masi
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the costs and benefits of changes brought by the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) on special and differential treatment (S); shows how these changes affected the new regional integration processes in the American continent; and examines whether this issue is still a priority of developing countries' agendas. Large concessions offered by developing countries in exchange for access to markets automatically led to “trade graduation.” Thus, S has lost its former significance among developing countries. Moreover, nonreciprocal treatment was retained for least developed countries, which do not even enjoy this type of treatment under the so-called “new trade-related issues” of services, investment, and intellectual property rights.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, America, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

2712. Geography, Markets, Resources, and Development: The Assets of the Americas Revisited

Author:
L. Ronald Scheman
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In May 1996, the price of copper crashed from US$2,600 to $1,775 per ton. The Sumitomo Corporation of Japan acknowledged unprecedented losses of $2.6 billion from unauthorized trading by its chief copper trader, one of the faceless manipulators of the international commodities markets, Yasuo Hamanaka. Among the major banks caught in this modern variation of the Ponzi scheme were J.P. Morgan and the London Metal Exchange. Chile, whose economy was highly dependent on income from the commodity, was quickly and painfully reminded that the highly leveraged markets on which it depended, even in the hands of the most reputable institutions, are fragile and subject to unexpected forces beyond its control. Copper prices began a downward spiral, and they have not yet recovered.
Topic:
Development, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Caribbean

2713. Immigration and Integration in the Americas

Author:
Max J. Castro
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Shortly after he was elected president of Mexico in 2000, Vicente Fox made the United States and Canada a bold proposal: Why not begin a long-range process that would lead to expanding the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) into a full-fledged North American Common Market, featuring open borders for the free movement of people as well as goods? And, in the short run, would the United States agree to a significant increase in legal immigration in exchange for Mexico's pledge to crack down on undocumented immigration?.
Topic:
Human Rights and Migration
Political Geography:
United States, America, Canada, and North America

2714. Free Trade and Worker Displacement: The Trade Adjustment Assistance Act and the Case of NAFTA

Author:
Jerry Haar and Antonio Garrastazu
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Trade liberalization, a fundamental feature of U.S. economic policy since the end of the Second World War, has increasingly become a contentious domestic political issue during the last decade. Proponents and opponents of free trade transcend political party affiliation, industry, occupation, geographical locale, income level, age, and other socioeconomic and demographic factors. In addition, the U.S. public and its leaders for the most part hold qualified, mixed, or inconsistent opinions about trade liberalization and the larger and rapidly increasing phenomenon known as globalization. In a February 9-14, 2000, nationwide poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates, a majority of respondents (64 percent compared to 27 percent) stated that free trade with other countries is good for the United States. On the other hand, an NBC News/ W all Street Journal poll several months later asked interviewees to respond to the following statement: “Foreign trade has been bad for the U.S. economy because cheap imports from abroad have hurt wages and cost jobs here at home.” Forty-eight percent of the respondents answered that it has been “bad” and 34 percent “good.”
Topic:
Industrial Policy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

2715. The Day the World Changed? Terrorism and World Order

Author:
Stuart Harris, William Maley, Amin Saikal, Richard Price, and Christian Reus-Smit
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
Change in world politics is generally thought to be more momentous than incremental. The power of social, political and economic structures, combined with habit, routine and sunk costs, favours continuity over change, and practices can persist long after their purpose has declined. It usually takes major shocks to the system 'cataclysmic events that expose the shortcomings of established practices' to license new forms of understanding, empower new sets of actors, and encourage new methods of ordering social, economic and political relations. The Great Depression and the Second World War were cataclysmic events of this import, as were the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union. The story of international relations is thus one of 'punctuated equilibria', not gradual evolution.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

2716. In the Name of National Security: U.S. Counterterrorist Measures, 1960-2000

Author:
Laura K. Donohue
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Between 1960 and 2000 the United States responded to the growing threat of terrorism with a wide range of measures. The government implemented provisions that extended from the negotiation of international agreements, military strikes against state sponsors of terrorism, and the creation of decontamination teams, to changes in immigration procedures, advances in surveillance, and an increase in the severity of penalties associated with terrorist attack. As discussion in the United States progresses on the best course of action for dealing with conventional, chemical, biological, nuclear, or radiologic terrorism, it is useful to take stock of where the country stands in the development of its counterterrorism strategy and to consider what factors have shaped the American response. While some substantive areas may be developed further to respond more effectively to terrorism, the significant picture that emerges is how complex and detailed the American counterterrorist complex already has become. The many branches of government entrusted with the life and property of the citizens have felt it necessary to respond to successive terrorist threats by the introduction of a wide range of measures. Left unchecked, the continued expansion of U.S. provisions risks significant inroads into civil liberties, the alienation of minorities and other states, an increase in the number and effectiveness of terrorist acts, and unchecked expenditures. This article provides a taxonomy of efforts to address the threat and argues that, while some gaps may need to be addressed, of more serious concern is the long-term affect of the steady expansion of U.S. counterterrorist measures.
Topic:
Government, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

2717. Covert Biological Weapons Attacks against Agricultural Targets: Assessing the Impact against U.S. Agriculture

Author:
Jason Pate and Gavin Cameron
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Since 1995, analysts, policymakers, and the news media in the United States have focused unprecedented attention on the threat of terrorism involving weapons of mass destruction (WMD), particularly chemical and biological weapons (CBW). The Aum Shinrikyo attack in Tokyo in March 1995 and the Oklahoma City bombing the following month significantly contributed to this phenomenon in two important ways. First, Aum proved that subnational groups could obtain CBW, previously only a theoretical possibility. After the Tokyo incident terrorists using CBW appeared to be an evolving and dangerous threat that required creative new thinking in counter- and antiterrorism policy. Second, the Oklahoma City bombing brought the threat of terrorism to the American heartland. No longer was terrorism a foreign phenomenon characterized by media accounts of masked Islamic fundamentalists taking hostages, hijacking planes, or bombing far-away buildings. The terrorists in this case were Americans targeting Americans: not only had terrorism reached the center of the country, but the terrorist threat originated much closer to home.
Topic:
Environment, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Tokyo

2718. U.S. Policy on Caspian Energy Development and Exports: Mini-Case and Paradigm

Author:
Graham T. Allison and Emily Van Buskirk
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The date is July 1, 2001. Real world history and trends occurred as they did through March 19, 2001 — except for the hypothetical departures specified in the case below. Events after March 19 that are not specified in this case are assumed to be straight - line projections of events as they stand on March 19. Assume, for example, that sporadic violence continues in the Middle East at the current level of intensity; Britain and the U.S. are nearing the end of their review of UN sanctions against Iraq, and will soon make recommendations on refocusing the sanctions to make them “smarter”; as expected, Mohammad Khatami was reelected as President of Iran on June 8 with a mandate for continued reform; the price of oil is $25/barrel; events in Chechnya and Ukraine, and negotiations over Nagorno - Karabagh will continue as before.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Britain, Russia, United States, Iraq, Ukraine, Middle East, Asia, and United Nations

2719. Negotiations on Nagorno-Karabagh: Where Do We Go From Here? (Summary and Transcript Publication, with Photographs)

Author:
Brenda Shaffer, Carey Cavanaugh, Hamlet Isaxanli, and Ronald Suny
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
From April 3 - 7, 2001 the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe convened negotiations in Key West, Florida, aimed at achieving a peace settlement for the Nagorno - Karabagh conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell opened this set of talks between Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev and Armenian President Robert Kocharian, each of whom met separately with Secretary Powell in Florida and, subsequently, in Washington D.C. with President Bush. The United States, France and Russia were the mediators at the negotiations, as co - chairs of the OSCE “Minsk Group” (which includes 13 countries) established in 1992 as part of an effort to end the conflict. The chief negotiator on the U.S. side at Key West was Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh, who is the State Department's Special Negotiator for the conflict on a constant basis. The negotiations were held in proximity format, meaning that the facilitators held separate talks with each of the heads of Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Washington, Asia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Florida

2720. Overview of Federal Programs to Enhance State and Local Preparedness for Terrorism with Weapons of Mass Destruction

Author:
Gregory D. Koblentz
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Over the past five years, the United States has launched an unprecedented series of initiatives to prepare for the possibility of a terrorist attack employing a weapon of mass destruction (WMD) within the United States. These initiatives, originating in Congress, the White House, and Cabinet departments, have resulted in a complex web of programs to improve the preparedness and response capabilities of local, state, and federal agencies by providing specialized equipment, training, and planning assistance. While a debate has raged over the risk posed by terrorist groups seeking to cause mass casualties with chemical, biological, nuclear, or radiological weapons, federal spending on domestic preparedness has climbed steadily despite the lack of consensus on the severity of the threat. From 1997 to 2000, federal spending to prepare for WMD terrorism swelled from roughly $130 million to $1.4 billion, a tenfold increase. Almost one-quarter of the entire domestic preparedness budget, and roughly one-half of federal spending on preparedness and response for WMD terrorism, has been in the form of federal assistance to state and local governments.
Topic:
Environment and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

2721. U.S. Preparations for Biological Terrorism: Legal Limitations and the Need for Planning

Author:
Juliette N. Kayyem
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The threat of terrorism has focused the attention of the United States on domestic preparedness. Although the likelihood of a domestic terrorist attack may be relatively low, the country is nonetheless preparing first responders, local, state and federal officials, and the public on what to do and what to expect should one occur. Lawyers have only recently begun to consider the issue of domestic preparedness. Any steps to improve preparedness must, of course, involve an assessment by the proper legal authorities to determine their lawfulness and legitimacy.
Topic:
Environment, National Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

2722. The Epidemiology of Microeconomic Expectations

Author:
Christopher D. Carroll
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Since the foundational work of Keynes (1936), macroeconomists have emphasized the importance of agents' expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes. Yet in recent decades macroeconomists have devoted almost no effort to modeling actual empirical expectations data, instead assuming all agents' expectations are 'rational.' This paper takes up the challenge of modeling empirical household expectations data, and shows that a simple, standard model from epidemiology does a remarkably good job of explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the 'rational expectations' benchmark. Furthermore, a microfoundations or 'agent-based' version of the model may be able to explain, in a way that still permits aggregation, stark rejections of the pure rational expectations framework like Souleles's (2002) finding that members of different demographic groups have sharply different predictions for macroeconomic aggregates like the inflation rate.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

2723. Nasty, Brutish and Long: America's War on Terrorism

Author:
Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The post–cold war era ended abruptly on the morning of September 11, 2001. From the moment terrorists turned jetliners into weapons of mass destruction, the United States was inescapably engaged in a new “war” against global terrorism. The Bush administration now intends to make that war the central organizing principle of America's foreign and defense policies.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and America

2724. The Aid and Reconstruction Agenda for Afghanistan

Author:
Michael E. O'Hanlon
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
With the Taliban and al Qaeda largely defeated, a temporary coalition government taking power in Afghanistan, the Freedom Bridge near Uzbekistan finally open to relief efforts, and foreign donors promising significant aid more generally, the future looks increasingly promising for the Afghan people. But many challenges remain, even beyond the immediate priority of completing the military operation. Without rapid delivery of sufficient food, shelter, and medical supplies, Afghanistan could still experience a humanitarian catastrophe this winter. Without great care to shore up the coalition government, it could fail, just as state-building efforts have failed with disastrous consequences in places such as Angola, Rwanda, and Somalia in recent years. Without sufficient delivery of reconstruction aid, Afghanistan could remain mired in the same poverty and chaos that gave rise to the Taliban in the first place.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Uzbekistan, Rwanda, Somalia, and Angola

2725. Evolution of Japan's Policy Toward Economic Integration

Author:
Naoko Munakata
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
On October 22, 2000, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori and Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong agreed to formal negotiations for the Japan-Singapore Economic Agreement for a New Age Partnership (JSEPA) in January 2001, in light of the September 2000 report from the Japan-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (JSFTA) Joint Study Group. It was the first time Japan entered into negotiations concerning regional economic integration. With a strong emphasis on the need to address the new challenges globalization and technological progress pose; the Joint Study Group explored a possible .New Age FTA. between the two countries, which Prime Minister Goh proposed in December 1999. Thus, for Japan the JSEPA marked a major turning point in promoting regional economic integration.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Japan, China, Europe, Israel, and Asia

2726. Pakistan's Madrassahs: Ensuring a System of Education not Jihad

Author:
P.W. Singer
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Pakistan's religious schools, Madrassahs, trace their traditions back through nearly a thousand years of Islamic teaching. Over the last decades, however, they increasingly have played a role contrary to their original intent. Founded as centers of learning for the next generation of Islamic scholars and clerics, the schools now increasingly dominate the education sphere. The present danger is that a minority of these schools have built extremely close ties with radical militant groups and play a critical role in sustaining the international terrorist network. Madrassahs. displacement of a public education system is also worrisome to the stability of the Pakistani state and its future economic prospects.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and United States

2727. Globalization in the Aftermath: Target, Casualty, Callous Bystander?

Author:
Lael Brainard
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
No sooner had Americans digested the horror of September 11 than voices on both sides of the debate began making the connection to globalization. Advocates argued that the attacks were directed at globalization, or, if not the target, globalization was the chief casualty. Others bemoaned an even more troubling possibility: globalization would callously continue its crusade unmoved by the events of September 11.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and America

2728. Complementarity and Social Networks

Author:
Yann Bramoulle
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
I investigate complementarity games played on graphs, which model negative externalities embedded in structures of interaction. On the complete graph, the traditional economic analysis applies: the number of agents playing one strategy is proportional to its payoff. I show that, in general and contrary to coordination games, the structure crucially influences the equilibria. On an important class of graphs, called bipartite graphs, the equilibria do not depend on strategies' payoffs. On certain highly asymmetric graphs, an increase in the payoff of a strategy even decreases the number of agents playing this strategy. In most cases, equilibria do not maximize welfare.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

2729. The Japan-China Summit and Joint Declaration of 1998: A Watershed for Japan-China Relations in the 21st Century?

Author:
Kazuo Sato
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The November 1998 state visit to Japan by Chinese President Jiang Zemin was historically significant in that it was the first visit to Japan by a Chinese head of state. However, many people, including policymakers in Japan, had the impression that the visit not only failed to promote Japan-China relations, but actually strengthened anti-Chinese sentiments among the Japanese public. Nevertheless, both governments treated the Japan-China Joint Declaration On Building a Partnership of Friendship and Cooperation for Peace and Development—issued by the two governments on the occasion of visit—as a third important bilateral document, following the 1972 Joint Communiqué and the 1978 Treaty of Peace and Friendship. The two sides repeatedly have stressed that all problems should be handled in line with these three documents. There is a belief, especially among policymakers, that the 1998 Joint Declaration will be the bilateral framework upon which a strong partnership will be built for at least the first decade of the 21st century.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Japan, China, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2730. Perceptions on Free Trade: The Korean Debate Over the Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement

Author:
Chungsoo Kim
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the Korean public mindset on the country's external economic relations in general, and its efforts of market opening in particular, with the Japan-Korea Free Trade Area (JKFTA) as the case in point.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2731. Significant Changes in the Chinese Television Industry and Their Impact in the PRC: An Insider's Perspective

Author:
Li Xiaoping
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The television services of China have undergone dramatic changes since the policy of open door economic reform was introduced in the late 1970s. Few research studies, however, have been conducted in the United States and other Western countries on what, specifically, these changes are, and how they affect the lives of Chinese people and shape the media's role in Chinese society. This paper will outline the significant structural changes in the Chinese television industry, particularly at China Central Television (CCTV); it will also analyse the phenomenon of a highly popular program, 'Focus', (Jiao Dian Fang Tan) and its impact on Chinese politics and society. Based on this analysis, this paper will discuss relevant issues surrounding mainland Chinese media, including its editorial freedom and independence, expanding impact on policymaking, and, finally, its future role in the continued liberalization and democratization of China.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2732. Hong Kong Under One Country Two Systems: Promises and Realities

Author:
Chris Yeung
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The return of Hong Kong to Chinese rule captured the attention of the entire world. While most people conceded that the untried formula of “one country, two systems” was the best possible option for the people of Hong Kong, there were persistent doubts and anxiety about its viability and the sincerity of Beijing in honoring its promises. Whether or not the policy would work was definitely in the eye of beholder.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2733. Russia's Image of China and Russian-Chinese Relations

Author:
Alexander Lukin
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Discussion and debate about Russian-Chinese relations is on the rise and attracts the attention of experts and policy-makers around the world. From the Russian perspective, the importance of developing relations with its neighbor is determined by several considerations: shared interests and concerns about the international situation, the need to secure a peaceful international environment for economic development, worries about the future of the Russian Far East, and advantages from trade and economic cooperation with the fastest growing Asian economy. Russian approaches to China differ among various groups, political trends and individual experts; moreover, they exist not in vacuum, but within the framework of more general perceptions of the international situation and Russia's position therein. Based on these perceptions, it can be expected that Russia will develop closer relations with China for the foreseeable future. However, since the official Russian attitude toward China strongly depends on Russia's relations with the West, especially with the United States, US policy towards Russia and China will significantly influence the future Russian-Chinese partnership.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2734. Revisiting the 12 Myths of Central Asia

Author:
Martha Brill Olcott
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
NEARLY TEN YEARS HAVE PASSED since the countries of Central Asia received their independence. This impending anniversary is a good opportunity to look at how these states are managing the state-building process, and in particular what symbolic or ideological defenses they are offering for their actions. States need little protection from their successes but are always seeking ways to explain away their various failures. This paper looks at the “myths” that the leaders of the five Central Asian states are using to explain away the very disappointing results in both economic and especially political reforms and shows how U.S. policy makers have bought into some of these myths as well.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, and Asia

2735. Pitfalls on the Road to Fiscal Decentralization

Author:
Vito Tanzi
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
IN PAST YEARS, the subject of fiscal decentralization interested mainly specialists—even though several countries, including the United States, came into existence through the political and economic integration of already existing political entities, such as states or principalities. Recently, however, fiscal decentralization has been attracting more general attention, largely because of pressures for greater fiscal decentralization in many countries around the world. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a range of issues related to fiscal decentralization, focusing in particular on possible alternatives to decentralization and various pitfalls that may be associated with it. Unlike much of the previous literature on the subject, therefore, this paper will pay less attention to the actual processes of decentralization and more on whether decentralization is the right direction for a country to choose.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

2736. The Anti-Terrorism Coalition: Don't Pay an Excessive Price

Author:
Charles V. Peña
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
To prosecute the war on terrorism, President Bush has assembled a diverse coalition of countries for political, diplomatic, and military support. Some of those countries are long-standing friends and allies of the United States. Others have new or changing relationships with the United States. Although there may be a price for their support, America should not pay an excessive price—one that could be detrimental to longer-term U.S. national security interests. And though it may be necessary to provide a certain amount of immediate aid (directly or indirectly) as a quid pro quo for the support of other nations in our war on terrorism, the United States needs to avoid longer-term entanglements, open-ended commitments, and the potential for an extreme anti-American backlash.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

2737. Report from Havana: Time for a Reality Check on U.S. Policy toward Cuba

Author:
Jonathan G. Clarke and William Ratliff
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Official U.S. and Cuban depictions of the effects of the U.S. embargo differ notably from Cuban economic reality. This report, based on the authors' recent visits to Havana and interviews with top Cuban officials, dissidents, and other private citizens, shows that the embargo is not responsible for Cuba's poor economic condition—as Havana claims—nor has it been effective at achieving Washington's goal of isolating the Cuban regime.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Cuba, Latin America, Caribbean, and Havana

2738. Instability in the Philippines: A Case Study for U.S. Disengagement

Author:
Doug Bandow
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
As the world becomes a less dangerous place for America, U.S. officials work more desperately to preserve America's pervasive international military presence. This policy is evident in the Philippines, with which Washington recently concluded a Visiting Forces Agreement.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia

2739. Why is there no mad cow disease in the United States? Comparing the politics of food safety in Europe and the U.S.

Author:
Christoph Strünck
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
This paper compares approaches towards food safety regulation in Europe and the United States. It focuses on mad cow disease and examines how the British Government and the European Union handled the first big crisis in the nineties, juxtaposed to the American response. This worst public health disaster in Europe has led to new agencies and policies. However, these institutional changes do not abolish fragmentation, but extend the existing landscape regulatory bodies. The paper emphasizes that fragmentation-as the American case shows despite its shortcomings-prevents science from being captured by the state, allows interest groups broader access and ensures a distinct pattern of checks and balances.
Topic:
Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Europe

2740. Australian Unemployment Protection: Challenges and New Directions

Author:
Wayne Vroman and Vera Brusentsev
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
This paper examines Australia's scheme of unemployment protection and makes some comparisons with unemployment protection in the United States of America. A major concern of the paper is to understand the differences in unemployment duration between these two economies. Policies followed in the United States intended to reduce duration are reviewed for possible applicability in Australia.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States, Australia, and Southeast Asia

2741. The Integration of Immigrant Families in the United States

Author:
Michael Fix, Wendy Zimmermann, and Jeffrey Passel
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
What do we know about the integration of immigrant families within the United States—the progress these families are making and their reception in the communities where they settle? How are immigrants affected by the nation's integration policies or lack thereof? What directions might immigrant integration and the policies governing it take in the future?
Topic:
Government, Human Welfare, and Migration
Political Geography:
United States

2742. Are Immigrants Leaving California? Settlement Patterns of Immigrants in the Late 1990s

Author:
Wendy Zimmermann and Jeffrey S. Passel
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
For at least the last century and a half, the immigrant population in the United States has been highly concentrated in a handful of states. Even at the beginning of the 20th century, when the foreign-born population was less than half its current size, just over half of all immigrants lived in only six states. By 1990, that share had increased to nearly three-quarters. But, between 1990 and 1999, the geographic concentration of immigrants began to wane slightly, as the foreign-born population grew substantially faster in states that have not traditionally received large numbers of immigrants. This dispersal of the immigrant population is particularly noteworthy in the face of dramatically increased numbers, especially in the new settlement areas, and policy changes surrounding the noncitizen population.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Migration
Political Geography:
United States and California

2743. Hardship Among Children of Immigrants: Findings From the 1999 National Survey of American Families

Author:
Randy Capps
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
The 1999 National Survey of America's Families (NSAF) reveals that hardship is greater for children of immigrants than for children of U.S. natives in three areas of basic need: food, housing, and health care. The data also indicate that the relative generosity of differing state policies on noncitizens' access to public benefits generally corresponds with hardship levels. Because the NSAF cross-sectional data do not allow assessment of changes over time, these hardship levels cannot necessarily be ascribed to federal welfare reform or state policies. Nonetheless, these findings reinforce observations on the vulnerability of a population whose access to the social safety net has been diminished by recent policy changes. This analysis is one of the first studies based on nationally representative data to examine hardship among immigrant families in the post-welfare-reform era.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Migration, and Poverty
Political Geography:
United States

2744. Do Affluent Countries Face an Incomes-Jobs Tradeoff?

Author:
Lane Kenworthy
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
A commonly-held view suggests that affluent nations face a tradeoff between incomes and jobs. According to this view, in the United States pay for workers at the bottom of the earnings distribution (relative to those in the middle) is very low and government unemployment-related benefits (the “replacement rate”) are stingy, but this facilitates the creation of lots of new jobs and encourages such individuals to take those jobs. The result is a high rate of employment and low unemployment. In much of Western Europe relative pay levels are higher for those at the bottom and benefits are more generous, but this is said to discourage job creation and to reduce the willingness of the unemployed to accept low-wage jobs. The consequence is low employment and high unemployment. I undertake a comparative assessment of this tradeoff view, based on pooled cross-section time-series analyses of 14 OECD countries in the 1980s and 1990s. The findings suggest that greater pay equality and a higher replacement rate do reduce employment growth in low-productivity private-sector service industries and in the economy as a whole. However, these effects are relatively weak. The results point to a variety of viable options for countries wishing to maintain or move toward a desirable combination of jobs and equality.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2745. Building Conflict Prevention Capacity: Methods, Experiences, Needs — UNU Workshop Seminar Series Report

Author:
David Carment and Albrecht Schnabel
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Our collaboration began in early 1998, as a proposal for a two-panel mini-workshop on conflict prevention for the 1999 International Studies Association meeting in Washington, DC, USA. The project has subsequently developed into a multi-year project with two book-length volumes and various dissemination activities.
Topic:
Security, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States and Washington

2746. Creating an Environment: Developing Venture Capital in India

Author:
Rafiq Dossani and Martin Kenney
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
In the last decade, one of the most admired institutions among industrialists and economic policymakers around the world has been the U.S. venture capital industry. A recent OECD (2000) report identified venture capital as a critical component for the success of entrepreneurial high-technology firms and recommended that all nations consider strategies for encouraging the availability of venture capital. With such admiration and encouragement from prestigious international organizations has come various attempts to create an indigenous venture capital industry. This article examines the efforts to create a venture capital industry in India.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States, South Asia, and India

2747. The India-China Relationship: What the United States Needs to Know

Author:
Justin Sommers and Rapporteur
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the Asia Society are pleased to present the report of our conference entitled “The India-China Relationship: What the United States Needs to Know,” which took place in Washington, D.C., on November 30, 2001. The conference, engaging experts and policymakers both in and out of government, was one phase in a larger joint project of the two organizations that will result in a scholarly volume.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, South Asia, Washington, India, and Asia

2748. American Journalism in Transition: A View at the Top

Author:
Amy Korzick Garmer
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
American journalism is in the midst of a transition unlike any other it has experienced in the 225-year history of the republic. Like other societal institutions, news organizations must contend with a variety of forces that are upsetting the status quo and shaping new business and cultural environments. These forces include advances in technology, demographic shifts and the changing interests of consumers, changing government regulations, market consolidation, and globalization, to name a few. The convergence of these market and cultural phenomena and the relentless advance of the information revolution have rocked the comfortably familiar culture of journalism.
Topic:
Globalization, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and America

2749. Sustaining Media Pluralism in Democratizing Societies

Author:
Craig L. LaMay
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
In 1974 a global "third wave" of democratization began when a military coup in Portugal ended the dictatorship of Antonio Salazar, who himself had come to power in a military coup in 1926. Over the course of the succeeding 15 years, about 30 countries changed from various forms of nondemocratic regimes to nominally democratic ones, most dramatically in South America and Central and Eastern Europe. During this period, notable transitions from nondemocratic rule also occurred in Africa and Asia.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, South America, and Portugal

2750. Reinventing Minority Media for the 21st Century

Author:
América Rodriguez
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
For the fourth year, the Aspen Institute gathered together policy analysts, industry leaders, and academics to discuss the present state—and the future—of U.S. media that is produced purposefully and strategically for U.S. minority communities. These media, which range from small weekly newspapers in Filipino communities in Northern California to transnational corporations such as Univision (Univisión) which serves the Hispanic community, were the centerpiece of a lively exchange at the Aspen Institute in Aspen, Colorado, July 13-15, 2000.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, California, and Colorado