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Begin New Search Topic International Relations Political Geography United States Content Type Working Paper Publication Year within 25 Years

201. Missile Defence in the United States

Author:
Bertel Heurlin
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The basic arguments of this paper are, first, that the current US-missile defense, being operative from fall 2004, is based upon the former experiences with missile defense, second, that missile defense closely associated with weapons of mass destruction has gained the highest priority in American national security policy due to the 9.11 attacks, and third, that the superior argument for establishing an American missile defense is to maintain global, long term political-strategic superiority.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

202. Security Sector Transformation in Afghanistan

Author:
Mark Sedra
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
The U.S.-led Coalition's swift victory over the Taliban regime in October 2001 created a security vacuum across Afghanistan that the international community was unprepared to fill. Winning the peace in Afghanistan has proven to be a much more complex, costly, and protracted endeavour than winning the war, an imposing burden that has severely tested the resolve of the international donor community. With only 11,000-13,000 Coalition troops mandated to eradicate the last remnants of al-Qaeda an the Taliban in the south and a limited NATO presence of 6,000 troops deployed in the capital to insulate the fledgling political process, the onus for maintaining security in the country fell on the Afghan government and its fledgling security forces. After 23 years of civil war the country's security sector was in a state of disarray, its infrastructure destroyed, resources limited, and facing a shortage of human capacity. To bolster Afghanistan's beleaguered security institutions and ensure they conform to international standards, the major donors engaged in the country launched a security sector reform (SSR) process. Security sector transformation rather than reform seems more appropriate to describe the task of creating efficient, effective, and democratically accountable security forces in Afghanistan, for the bulk of the country's formal security apparatus ceased to function over a decade ago. In spite of the massive challenges that face program, it has been portrayed as the primary means to redress Afghanistan's immediate security woes. What by its very nature is a gradual, long-term process has been thrust into the position as short-term panacea.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and NATO
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Taliban

203. The Saudi Security Apparatus: Military and Security Services - Challenges and Developments

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Nawaf Obaid
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Both Saudi Arabia's security situation, and the Saudi security apparatus, are undergoing major changes. Saudi Arabia no longer faces a major threat from Iraq, but must deal with the growing risk that Iran will become a nuclear power. This confronts Saudi Arabia with hard strategic choices as to whether to ignore Iran's efforts to proliferate, seek US military assistance in deterring Iran and possibly in some form of missile defense, or to acquire more modern missiles and its own weapons of mass destruction.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Development, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

204. Iran's Security Sector: An Overview

Author:
Wilfried Buchta
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
The intention of this paper is to give an overview of the internal structure of the security sector of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), one of the few states in the Islamic world in which in general the security sector is submitted to the control of the civilian leadership. This paper will not deal with the issues of WMD, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran's open and covert support for militant Islamic groups abroad, the system's fight against exiled militant opposition groups or Tehran's policy towards Iraq prior to and after the US invasion, although some aspects of the security sectors' tasks are connected to these issues. Instead the paper will focus on the relationship between civilian leadership and the influential heads of the different branches of the security sector, a relationship which is extremely complex and often defies explanation. Therefore it is vital to offer some explanatory remarks on the overall political structure of the system and its main features.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

205. Strategic Surprises for a New Administration

Author:
Jason R. Wisniewski
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy's Schlesinger Working Group met during the fall of 2004 to discuss potential strategic surprises that could confront a new administration. The group focused on identifying candidate surprises and scenarios that could appear early in its term. Some examples of events the group sought to anticipate included trend reversals, out-of-the blue surprises, or second-order surprises caused by currently “visible” possibilities. During its first meeting, held shortly before the presidential election, the group discussed over a dozen possible scenarios in political, military, economic, and environmental fields. This list was further developed in intensive discussion in early December. This report draws on those discussions whose purpose was not to predict but to think “outside the box,” and concludes with a set of policy recommendations for the second Bush Administration.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

206. How Terrorism Affects American Diplomacy

Author:
Thomas O. Melia
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Interviews with several dozen senior American diplomats-including ambassadors and others currently serving abroad-indicate that the daily conduct of U.S. diplomacy has recently been altered in significant ways by the elevated threat of terrorism against American interests made manifest on September 11, 2001; the worldwide War on Terror declared by President George W. Bush in consequence; and the prosecution of the war in Iraq, on which diplomats are as divided as other Americans regarding whether it is or is not part of the global War on Terror.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and America

207. Are We Headed for a "Cyber-9/11?": The American Failure in Cyberstrategy

Author:
Benoit Gagnon
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Raoul Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Université du Québec à Montréal
Abstract:
In the wake of September 11, the U.S. Superpower once again became a target. This time, the attack was carried out by means of the Internet. How effective is American cyberstrategy? Examining the hacking scene in the last couple of years, it is clear that it is not an adequate response to present – and future – cyberthreats. Therefore, it is fair to say that the United States has a national security problem rather than a cybersecurity problem and to conclude that as things stand at present the American government is steering the United States toward a cyber-9/11.
Topic:
International Relations, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and America

208. International Diversification at Home and Abroad

Author:
Fang Cai and Francis E. Warnock
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We analyze foreigners' and domestic institutional investors' positions in U.S. equities. Controlling for many factors, we uncover a common preference for large firms and firms that are diversified internationally. The domestic preference for internationally diversified firms implies that investors might obtain substantial international diversification by investing at home. Using an international factor model, we show that exposure to foreign equity markets is indeed greater for domestic firms that are more diversified internationally, suggesting that at least some of the home-grown foreign exposure translates into international diversification benefits. After accounting for home-grown foreign exposure, the share of 'foreign' equities in investors' portfolios nearly doubles, reducing (but not eliminating) the observed home bias.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

209. The Performance of International Portfolios

Author:
Francis E. Warnock, Charles P. Thomas, and Jon Wongswan
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the performance of U.S. investors' portfolios in the equities of over 40 countries over a 25-year period. We find that these portfolios achieved a significantly higher Sharpe ratio than foreign benchmarks, especially since 1990. We uncover three potential reasons for this success. First, U.S. investors abstained from momentum trading and instead sold past winners. Second, conditional performance tests provide no evidence that the superior (unconditional) performance owed to private information, suggesting that the successful exploitation of publicly available information played a role. Third, the documented preference for cross-listed and well-governed foreign firms appears to have served U.S. investors well. We conclude with a short discussion of the implications of our findings for the home bias literature.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

210. Ramsey Monetary Policy and International Relative Prices

Author:
Ester Faia and Tommaso Monacelli
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We analyze welfare maximizing monetary policy in a dynamic two-country model with price stickiness and imperfect competition. In this context, a typical terms of trade externality affects policy interaction between independent monetary authorities. Unlike the existing literature, we remain consistent to a public finance approach by an explicit consideration of all the distortions that are relevant to the Ramsey planner. This strategy entails two main advantages. First, it allows an accurate characterization of optimal policy in an economy that evolves around a steady-state which is not necessarily efficient. Second, it allows to describe a full range of alternative dynamic equilibria when price setters in both countries are completely forward looking and households' preferences are not restricted. In this context, we study optimal policy both in the long-run and along a dynamic path, and we compare optimal commitment policy under Nash competition and under cooperation. By deriving a second order accurate solution to the policy functions, we also characterize the welfare gains from international policy cooperation.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

211. Indeterminacy with Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules in a Two-Bloc Model

Author:
Nicoletta Batini, Paul Levine, and Joseph Pearlman
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We examine the performance of forward-looking inflation-forecast-based rules in open economies. In a New Keynesian two-bloc model, a methodology first employed by Batini and Pearlman (2002) is used to obtain analytically the feedback parameters/horizon pairs associated with unique and stable equi-libria. Three key findings emerge: first, indeterminacy occurs for any value of the feedback parameter on inflation if the forecast horizon lies too far into the future. Second, the problem of indeterminacy is intrinsically more serious in the open economy. Third, the problem is compounded further in the open economy when central banks respond to expected consumer, rather than pro-ducer price inflation.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

212. Price-level Determinacy, Lower Bounds on the Nominal Interest Rate, and Liquidity Traps

Author:
Dale W. Henderson and Ragna Alstadheim
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We consider monetary-policy rules with inflation-rate targets and interest-rate or money-growth instruments using a flexible-price, perfect-foresight model. There is always a locally-unique target equilibrium. There may also be below-target equilibria (BTE) with inflation always below target and constant, asymptotically approaching or eventually reaching a below-target value, or oscillating. Liquidity traps are neither necessary nor sufficient for BTE which can arise if monetary policy keeps the interest rate above a lower bound. We construct monetary rules that preclude BTE when fiscal policy does not. Plausible fiscal policies preclude BTE for any monetary policy; those policies exclude surpluses and, possibly, balanced budgets.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

213. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Future Strategic Strike Forces

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Defense Science Board Summer Study Task Force on Future Strategic Strike Forces looks to the 30-year future with the objective of providing the President with a broad range of strike options to Protect the United States and our forces abroad, Assure friends and allies of our future commitment, and Deal with future adversaries on terms favorable to the United States. The Task Force identified currently planned systems that will still be relevant and recommended new systems for development.
Topic:
International Relations and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States

214. US-Mexico Border Control in a Changing Economic and Security Context

Author:
Peter Andreas
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Although far from Washington and Mexico City, it is perhaps only a slight exaggeration to say that U.S.-Mexico relations begin and end at their shared 1,933-mile-long border. Indeed, the degree of harmony or conflict in the relationship increasingly depends on how the border and border control matters are politically managed. The border is both one of the busiest and one of the most heavily policed territorial lines in the world, where many of the most critical and sensitive issues in the bilateral relationship, such as trade, migration, and drug trafficking, come together. In fact, much of U.S. policy toward Mexico has been driven by the twin objectives of facilitating authorized border crossings and deterring unauthorized crossings. Balancing these tasks has always been politically and bureaucratically frustrating and cumbersome, but both the challenge and the stakes have grown substantially as counterterrorism has been added to and redefined the border control agenda since September 11, 2001.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, and Mexico

215. Collision Avoidance: U.S.-Russian Bilateral Relations and Former Soviet States

Author:
Eugene B. Rumer
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The year 2003 was a difficult one in U.S.- Russian relations, and 2004 promises to be even more challenging. Disagreements between Washington and Moscow over Iraq were the most visible in a series of events that also included American concerns about Chechnya, the authoritarian tilt in Russian domestic politics, Russia's fading media freedom, selective prosecution of independent-minded businessmen, and meddling in the internal affairs of its neighbors. Together, these events add up to a trend that spells trouble for the ambitious U.S.-Russian strategic framework inaugurated by President George W. Bush and President Vladimir Putin in 2002. Yet rarely if ever has the need for greater cooperation between the two countries been more urgent than it will be in 2004 and the years to come.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Washington, Soviet Union, and Moscow

216. If Not Balancing, What? Forms of Resistance to American Hegemony

Author:
Jeremy Pressman
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
While traditional understandings of international affairs would predict the formation of a balancing coalition against the dominant U.S. position in world affairs, some analysts now contend that the U.S. advantage is so comprehensive and so unprecedented that we have not seen and will not see balancing behavior on the part of second tier powers like China, Russia, Japan, and Germany. It would be a mistake, however, to assume that the absence of balancing means the United States will not face any meaningful opposition in the international arena. Though in the short term a bloc of states is unlikely to form a counter-coalition. the historical form of resistance to dominant powers other states still find important ways to resist U.S. dominance.
Topic:
International Relations and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Japan, China, and Germany

217. Integrating Democracy Promotion Into U.S. Middle East Policy

Author:
Michele Dunne
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
BETWEEN 2002 AND 2004, THE UNITED STATES ACCORDED new prominence to political and economic reform and democratization as policy goals in the Middle East. Continuing that trend and translating rhetoric into effective strategies both depend on whether reform and democratization become fully integrated into the U.S. policy agenda in the region. Can the United States promote change at the risk of instability in the region while it remains dependent on petroleum from Arab countries? Can it pursue Arab–Israeli peace and democratization at the same time? Can the United States still secure needed military and counterterrorism cooperation if it antagonizes friendly regimes by promoting democratization as well? Is it feasible for the United States to promote democratization effectively amid widespread grievances against the war in Iraq and serious questions about U.S. human rights practices there and in Afghanistan?
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

218. Crossing the Atlantic, A Report from the Aspen Atlantic Group 2003 Workshops

Author:
Madeleine Albright and Kurt M. Campbell
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
In two workshops, June 6-8 and July 31-August 2, 2003, the Aspen Atlantic Group and its guests examined avenues for renewed transatlantic cooperation in light of contemporary and cumulative challenges to the relationship. Having conducted a frank and in-depth diagnosis of core differences and commonalities in the first workshop, the second workshop extended its scope to include sessions on specific areas of collaboration such as homeland security and humanitarian intervention.
Topic:
International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

219. People / Networks / Power: Communications Technologies and the New International Politics

Author:
David Bollier
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Kurdish people living in Turkey can now receive satellite television broadcasts emanating from London. Iranians can view Farsi-language television programs that originate in Los Angeles. Even though they are dispersed throughout the world, emigrants from mainland China remain a vital diasporic community, thanks to websites and e-mail discussion lists. Insurgent movements from the Zapatistas to the East Timorese to Indonesian students have used the Internet to organize themselves and communicate a political vision to the world.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, Turkey, London, Kurdistan, and Los Angeles

220. An American Grand Strategy for the Middle East: A Report of the Aspen Strategy Group

Author:
Kurt M. Campbell
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Former Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara was fond of saying that the Middle East was the graveyard of American diplomatic hopes and dreams, and this is a man who knows something about disappointment in global politics (as well as cemeteries). Now, the United States has embarked upon an ambitious mission to remake the Middle East – rebuilding war-ravaged and leader-abused countries in Afghanistan and Iraq, seeking to settle the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, blocking further nuclear proliferation, pushing the region to embrace political moderation and reform, and hopefully improving America's image in the region in the process. There are unintentional though unavoidable echoes of the “best and the brightest” in this campaign as the U.S. embarks upon a global crusade (call it what it is) to help re-direct the course of one of the world's dominant civilizations and the institutions that have served it so poorly. This uniquely American sense of mission and manifest destiny is apparent in a range of endeavors worldwide but it is in the Middle East where U.S. ambitions approach the point of audacity.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Democratization
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Middle East

221. Renewing the Atlantic Partnership

Author:
Lawrence H. Summers, Henry A. Kissinger, and Charles A. Kupchan
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The accomplishments of the Atlantic alliance are remarkable. History records few, if any, alliances that have yielded so many benefits for their members or for the broader international community. After centuries of recurrent conflict, war among the European great powers has become inconceivable. The Cold War has been won; the threat of nuclear war has receded. Freedom has prevailed against totalitarian ideologies. Trade, investment, and travel are more open today than ever before. Progress in raising living standards—in rich and poor countries alike—is unprecedented.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

222. Road to Ruin: Afghanistan's Booming Opium Industry

Author:
Barnett Rubin
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
President George W. Bush declared recently that “the people of Afghanistan are now free.” While the president boasts, Afghanistan's opium industry, which fosters terrorism, violence, debt bondage, and organized crime, has expanded to the point that it could undermine the entire U.S. and international effort. As President Bush's own special envoy and ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, recently admitted, ''[r]ather than getting better, it's gotten worse. There is a potential for drugs overwhelming the institutions – a sort of a narco-state."
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

223. NAFTA Dispute Settlement Systems

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott, and Yee Wong
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Building on the 1989 Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), the NAFTA contains dispute settlement provisions in six separate areas. NAFTA Chapter 11 is designed to resolve investor-state disputes over property rights; Chapter 14 creates special provisions for handling disputes in the financial sector via the Chapter 20 dispute settlement process (DSP); Chapter 19 establishes a review mechanism to determine whether final antidumping and countervailing duty decisions made in domestic tribunals are consistent with national laws; and Chapter 20 provides government-to-government consultation, at the ministerial level, to resolve high-level disputes. In addition, the NAFTA partners created interstate dispute mechanisms regarding domestic environmental and labor laws under the North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation (NAAEC) and the North American Agreement on Labor Cooperation (NAALC), respectively. This chapter examines the first four dispute settlement systems; the NAAEC and NAALC systems are evaluated in the environment and labor chapters of this book.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Canada

224. Order and Chaos in the 21st Century Do We Need a New „Standpoint for Seeing and Judging Events“?

Author:
Frances Mautner-Markhof
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
This paper presents a new way of approaching the challenges related to order and chaos in the 21st century, proposing a new paradigm or „standpoint for seeing and judging events” (Clausewitz) based on the self-organization of complex systems.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Europe

225. The Economic aspects of security in South Eastern Europe

Author:
Mladen Stanisis
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
In the process of constructing a safety structure in the South Eastern Europe one must bear in mind the assumptions on which the new global safety structure is based, and those are: 1. Europe, and the surrounding area of the region, is becoming more stable and peaceful, and there are no indications that there will be any armed conflicts between states in the near future. 2. The situation of volatility and insecurity is spreading globally due to unconventional threats, like international terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, drug-trafficking, illegal immigration etc. 3. The EU, as an institution of international integration, and NATO, as an international organisation, are starting to see eye to eye and are co-ordinating their activities on the basis of compatible civilisation values against the stated threats and in attempt to further economic development of the EU. 4. The role and the importance of multilateral organisations are diminishing. The emphasis is being put on the importance of bilateral relations, especially by the last superpower, the USA, whose policy of unilateralism will surely dominate international relations for some time to come. 5. Other stakeholders in the domain of international relations, with the potential to become partners of the USA in the process of reaffirming multilateral relations. The EU, the People's Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the UN have just begun adapting to new relations and there are no indications that the position of the USA as the leading world power would be contested. 6. The globalisation process dominates all aspects of international relations on the basis of scientific and technological revolution, as well as revolution in the communication of information. It will be a consistent mechanism of transferring the model of liberal democracy internationally.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Central Asia

226. The “New World Order”: From Unilateralism to Cosmopolitanism

Author:
Jeffrey Herf and Jürgen Neyer
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
On January 26, 2004, the topic of the CES-Berlin Dialogues was “The 'New World Order': From Unilateralism to Cosmopolitanism.” It was the second in a series of four meetings organized in Berlin under the heading “Redefining Justice.” The session was intended to examine successful and failed arenas of cooperation between the US and Europe; political misunderstandings and conscious manipulation; and models for future transatlantic relations. The presenters were Jeffrey Herf, Professor of History, University of Maryland, and Prof. Dr. Jürgen Neyer, Professor of International Political Economy, Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, and Heisenberg Fellow of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft at the Department of Political and Social Sciences of the Freie Universität Berlin. Jeffrey Herf was asked to speak on the basic tenets of U.S. foreign policy in the administration of President George W. Bush, and Jürgen Neyer focused on the European view of international relations and conduct in the period since the invasion of Iraq.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, and Berlin

227. European Anti-Americanism (and Anti-Semitism): Ever Present Though Always Denied

Author:
Andrei S. Markovits
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
There can be no doubt that the Bush Administration's policies have massively contributed to a hitherto unprecedented deterioration in European-American relations. However, European antipathies towards many things American date back at least to July 5, 1776, if not before. Following a conceptual discussion of anti-Americanism, the paper then turns to an account of these historical dislikes and anchors them particularly among Europe's elites. A discussion of anti-Semitism in relation to anti- Americanism follows in the subsequent section. A summary of an analysis of newspaper articles collected in the decade of the 1990s highlights the widespread nature of anti-American sentiments in Britain, France, Germany, Italy. Lastly, anti-Americanism's functionality as a useful ingredient in Europe's burgeoning state building process concludes the paper.
Topic:
International Relations and Nationalism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, France, Germany, and Italy

228. U.S. Military Assistance to 1460 Report Countries: 1990-2005

Author:
Victoria Garcia
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
On Jan. 30, 2003, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) adopted resolution 1460, which reaffirms the council's previous resolutions (1261, 1314, and 1379) on children and armed conflict and calls on all parties to armed conflict to stop using child soldiers. Resolution 1460 also requests that the UN secretary general list the progress made by the 23 parties to conflict on the Security Council's agenda (S/2002/1299), including governmental armed groups that continue to use or recruit child soldiers. In response to Resolution 1460, and in advance of the Security Council's fourth open debate on children in armed conflict, the Coalition to stop the Use of Child Soldiers published a report that lists 17 countries where child soldiers were being used from January 2003 through September 2003. While the report does not cover every situation where children are being deployed, it specifically includes all of the countries covered on the Security Council's agenda, as well as other situations deemed critical by the coalition.
Topic:
International Relations, Human Rights, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States

229. Narrating Oneself Through Another: Medieval Christians and Their Images of the Saracen

Author:
Paul T. Levin
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
It was Turkish membership in the European Union that the Viennese social worker quoted in the Guardian was against. As the Commission of the European Union has recently delivered a report that suggests the opening up of EU accession negotiations with Turkey, old fears seem to be awakening on the continent; “Turcophobia”, as the Guardian calls it. The liberal Viennese news weekly Profil the same week described the prospect of Turkish membership as “not so much a risk as a danger” in an editorial titled “The Turks at the Gates of Vienna.” But not only Turks are experiencing a resurrection of animosities that many thought were long since buried. In the aftermath of the attacks on September 11, anti-Arab sentiments surged along with verbal and physical attacks on Muslims in both Europe and the U.S. Perhaps the secretly held view of too many in Europe and the “West” is that of Britain's Robert Kilroy-Silk. According to his column in the Sunday Express on September 25 of this year, Arabs are no more than "suicide bombers, limb-amputators, women repressors". This essay digs deep to find the historical roots of today's images of Turks, Arabs, and Muslims.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, Regional Cooperation, and Religion
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, Europe, Turkey, and Arabia

230. Whole World on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge Nuclear Devastation

Author:
Lynn Eden
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Whole World on Fire is about a puzzle that is morbid, arcane, and consequential. Morbid, because it involves the devastation caused by nuclear weapons. Arcane, because it involves secret and obscure calculations by a government bureaucracy tucked away deep within U.S. military intelligence. And consequential, because it involves decisions at the highest level of government about using nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Government, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States

231. Could Humphrey Have Gone to China? Measuring the Electoral Costs and Benefits of Making Peace

Author:
Kenneth Schultz
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Theoretical arguments for why “it takes a Nixon to go to China” emphasize either the superior credibility that hawks have in advocating peace or the superior political benefits they enjoy in doing so. This paper looks for evidence of these effects in the canonical case: that of U.S. rapprochement with China in the early 1970s. I use counterfactual simulations on data from the 1968 National Election Study to explore the political effects of a proposal to open relations with China, focusing on whether and how those effects would depend on who made the proposal: Richard Nixon or Hubert Humphrey. I find evidence of both the credibility and electoral security effects hypothesized in the theoretical literature. In particular, there is a very dramatic asymmetry in the political costs and benefits of proposing peace: while such a proposal would have been electorally costly for Humphrey, it could have been an electoral boon for Nixon.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and North America

232. Strategic Moral Diplomacy: Mandela, Qaddafi and the Lockerbie Negotiations

Author:
Lyn Boyd Judson
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
On October 29, 1997, South African President Nelson Mandela arrived in Libya to award Colonel Muammar Qaddafi the Good Hope Medal. The Medal, also referred to as the Order of Good Hope, is the highest honor that South Africa can bestow upon a citizen of another country--it would be given a year later to US President Bill Clinton. At the time, Colonel Qaddafi was a pariah in the international community. Libya had been under United Nations sanctions since 1992 for its refusal to hand over the two indicted suspects in the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, that killed 270 people.
Topic:
International Relations, Globalization, Government, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Libya, United Nations, and Scotland

233. Some remarks on Trans-Atlantic Convergences and Divergences

Author:
Bronislaw Geremek
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
Only a few short years have passed since we bade farewell to the 20th century and ushered in a new millennium. Generalised assessments always include the question of whether the glass is half empty or half full; and so there have been differing evaluations put forth on the outcomes of the passing century and the prospects of the new one. However, we can quite safely say that we bid farewell to the 20th century - the century of two world conflicts, totalitarian ideologies and systems, of the holocaust, concentration camps, the gulag-with a sense of relief. The cold war came to an end, the Soviet empire collapsed, and the spread of democracy and freedom around the globe seemed to justify proclamations of the advent of a Hegelian "end of history". The United Nations Millennium Declaration announced the undertaking of new and effective action that would liberate the world's population from the plagues of hunger, poverty and fear.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

234. Foreign Policy Strategies in a Globalized World: The Case of Mexico

Author:
Guadalupe González
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This document analyses the impact of the end of the Cold-War, and the processes of economic and political liberalization on Mexico's foreign policy. The first section identifies the consequences for the so-called intermediate countries of the three most important post-Cold War trends: the emergence of hybrid structure of global power, the wave of globalization, and the growing importance of international institutions. The second section evaluates the explanatory value of three systemic approaches to the study of the foreign policy of intermediate states: systemic-structuralism, middle powers, and pivotal states. In the third section, I evaluate Kahler's alternative approach centered on the interaction between systemic and domestic variables, in particular on the foreign policy consequences of economic liberalization and democratization such as the adoption of external cooperative strategies and the deepening to engagement with international institution. The fourth section describes the main changes that have taken place in Mexico's foreign policy during the 1990s: pragmatism, primacy of economics, closer alignment with the United States, segmented multilateralism, fragmentation of the decision-making process, and new instruments. There are two arguments in this document. First, in contrast to other intermediate liberalizing countries, Mexico's efforts to adapt to the new post-Cold War international system, followed an uneven and partial pattern. While Mexican political leaders pursued the full integration of the country to the international economy, in the security realm they maintain a less than open policy based on the defense of the traditional notion of sovereignty. Mexico's partial adaptation is explained by the different pace of the raid economic reform on the one hand, and the gradual and slow opening of the post-revolutionary political regime, on the other. Second, as Kahler's model predicted, Mexico adopted strategies of cooperation and institutional engagement in order to solve credibility roblems. The need to enhance the credibility of the programs of economic reform pushed the Mexican government to engage actively with economic international institutions.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Middle East, North America, and Mexico

235. Turkey at the Crossroads on Iraq: A Test Case for US-Turkey Relations

Author:
Aysegul Sever
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
While the Iraqi crisis has served to help define America's position on the world's stage, especially pertaining to trans-Atlantic relations and the West-Islam axis, Turkey's position on Iraq will similarly have a lasting effect on that country's relations both with the West and with the Islamic world. The Turkish government's ambivalent stance towards the Iraqi crisis (first siding with the US position, then deciding to remain on the sidelines in accordance with a legislative decision based mainly on domestic concerns) seriously strained Turkish-American relations. This strain must be addressed, as it is now clear that neither side can take the decades-old, deep-seated ties for granted. As the Iraqi crisis proved, Turkey should not overestimate its strategic geographical location as a guarantee that will ensure America's continuing interest in Turkish concerns. On its part, the US should avoid the patronizing position that was evident in the run-up to the Iraq war. Especially, as the leading supporter of Turkey's fight against the PKK, America should be more attentive to its ally's special concerns and engage in consistent consultation with the Turkish government on Iraq while avoiding any “knee-jerk” reactions or unilateral acts. It is also important that Turkey's economic recovery program should continue to be backed by Washington. As a Middle Eastern country and a long time ally of the US, Turkey's views on the rebuilding of Iraq should be taken into account, especially while anti-Americanism in the area remains strong.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

236. Egypt as a Failing State: Implications for US National Security

Author:
Ruth M. Beitler and Cindy R. Jebb
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
Short-term solutions to more profound, long-term problems are not sufficient to safeguard United States interests in the Middle East. This paper challenges the current United States policy towards Egypt and its underlying assumption that regime stability supercedes a US interest in true political development. The key question in this paper queries why the status quo policy towards Egypt is no longer fulfilling US objectives when it has been a successful pillar for US Middle East policy in the past. One can easily understand the seductive nature of adhering to the status quo policy by recalling Anwar Sadat's initiatives moving Egypt squarely from the Soviet camp to the American one, the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, and Egypt's support during the Gulf War in 1991. The United States must take bold new steps towards its relationship with Egypt and leverage Egypt's historical regional leadership to better support US interests for the future.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Soviet Union, Arabia, and Egypt

237. Unproven: The Controversy over Justifying War in Iraq

Author:
David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, and Linda M. Gerber
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
The failure of U.S. and British forces in Iraq to find evidence of weapons of mass destruction has sparked controversy on both sides of the Atlantic and in the wider international community. Two contending explanations have been offered for why the Bush administration made apparently questionable claims about weapons of mass destruction. The first alleges an intelligence failure. The best analysts in the CIA simply had no foolproof way of discerning what Saddam had. They gave the administration a wide-ranging set of estimates, from benign to worst-case, and, given the way bureaucracies behave, the president's advisors adopted the worse case scenario. The second claim, more odious in form and substance, is that the administration inflated and manipulated uncertain data, possibly even requesting that material sent to it be redone to fit preconceived notions. The Bush administration has gone to great pains to reassert that it stands by its previous pronouncements that prohibited weapons will be located in due time.
Topic:
International Relations, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

238. Are We Taking China's Future for Granted?

Author:
Joseph C. Folio
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
During Fall 2003 the Schlesinger Working Group held two meetings (September 25th and November 3rd) to explore China's estimated political/ economic outlook and to determine what potential challenges might affect its projected future. The purpose of these meetings was not to predict a Chinese stumble or even collapse, but rather to examine events that could trigger a disruption of China's current, impressively successful economic trajectory, and to analyze what form that disruption could take. During the first meeting, participants identified potential disruption scenarios to which China remains vulnerable. The second meeting considered the implications of disruption for both China and the United States, and how these scenarios might affect U.S. policy. Working Group members did not attempt to assign probabilities for the identified potential disruptions or “failures.” Rather, they focused on the hurdles or challenges posed by these disruption scenarios, which the Chinese leadership would need to confront successfully in order to avoid losing control or endangering national cohesion. Participants generally agreed that any major disruption would most likely derive from an external shock that might negatively affect China's economic situation and possibly ignite collateral internal disruption via domestic unrest or leadership division. The group concurred that the Chinese leadership has sufficient strength and cohesion to manage most forms of internal disruption, or at least to adapt quickly and effectively to those that arise.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and China

239. Breaks in the Variability and Co-Movement of G-7 Economic Growth

Author:
Jon Faust and Brian M. Doyle
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper investigates breaks in the variability and co-movement of output, consumption, and investment in the G-7 economies. In contrast with most other papers on co-movement, we test for changes in co-movement allowing for breaks in mean and variance. Despite claims that rising integration among these economies has increased output correlations among them, we find no clear evidence of an increase in correlation of growth rates of output, consumption, or investment. This finding is true even for the United States and Canada, which have seen a tremendous increase in bilateral trade shares, and for the members of the euro area in the G-7.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, and North America

240. The High-Frequency Response of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements

Author:
John H. Rogers, Jonathan H. Wright, Jon Faust, and Shing-Yi B. Wang
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Many recent papers have studied movements in stock, bond, and currency prices over short windows of time around macro announcements. This paper adds to the announcement effects literature in two ways. First, we study the joint announcement effects across a broad range of assets--exchange rates and U.S. and foreign term structures. In order to evaluate whether the joint effects can be reconciled with conventional theory, we interpret the joint movements in light of uncovered interest rate parity or changes in risk premia. For several real macro announcements, we find that a stronger than expected release appreciates the dollar today, but that it must either (i) lower the relative risk premium for holding foreign currency rather than dollars, or (ii) imply considerable future expected dollar depreciation. The latter implies an overshooting behavior akin to that described by Dornbusch (1976). Second, we use a longer span of high frequency data than has been common in announcement work. A longer span of high frequency data contributes to the precision of our estimates and allows us to explore the possibility that the effects of macro surprises on asset prices have varied over time. We find evidence, for example, that PPI releases had a larger effect on U.S. interest rates before about 1992 than subsequently.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

241. Productive Capacity, Product Varieties, and the Elasticities Approach to the Trade Balance

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Most macroeconomic models imply that faster output growth tends to lower a country's trade balance by raising its imports with little change to its exports. Krugman (1989) proposed a model in which countries grow by producing new varieties of goods. In his model, faster-growing countries are able to export these new goods and maintain balanced trade without suffering any deterioration in their terms of trade. This paper analyzes the growth of U.S. imports from different source countries and finds strong support for Krugman's model.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

242. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on The Role and Status of Red Teaming Activities

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Task Force was charged to examine the use of red teams in the Department of Defense and recommend ways that such teams could be of greater value to the department. Our Terms of Reference and task force membership are provided in Appendices 1 and 2.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States

243. Forecasting U.S. Inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging

Author:
Jonathan H. Wright
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Recent empirical work has considered the prediction of inflation by combining the information in a large number of time series. One such method that has been found to give consistently good results consists of simple equal weighted averaging of the forecasts over a large number of different models, each of which is a linear regression model that relates inflation to a single predictor and a lagged dependent variable. In this paper, I consider using Bayesian Model Averaging for pseudo out-of-sample prediction of US inflation, and find that it gives more accurate forecasts than simple equal weighted averaging. This superior performance is consistent across subsamples and inflation measures. Meanwhile, both methods substantially outperform a naive time series benchmark of predicting inflation by an autoregression.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

244. Bayesian Model Averaging and Exchange Rate Forecasts

Author:
Jonathan H. Wright
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Exchange rate forecasting is hard and the seminal result of Meese and Rogoff (1983) that the exchange rate is well approximated by a driftless random walk, at least for prediction purposes, has never really been overturned despite much effort at constructing other forecasting models. However, in several other macro and financial forecasting applications, researchers in recent years have considered methods for forecasting that combine the information in a large number of time series. One method that has been found to be remarkably useful for out-of-sample prediction is simple averaging of the forecasts of different models. This often seems to work better than the forecasts from any one model. Bayesian Model Averaging is a closely related method that has also been found to be useful for out-of-sample prediction. This starts out with many possible models and prior beliefs about the probability that each model is the true one. It then involves computing the posterior probability that each model is the true one, and averages the forecasts from the different models, weighting them by these posterior probabilities. This is effectively a shrinkage methodology, but with shrinkage over models not just over parameters. I apply this Bayesian Model Averaging approach to pseudo-out-of-sample exchange rate forecasting over the last ten years. I find that it compares quite favorably to a driftless random walk forecast. Depending on the currency-horizon pair, the Bayesian Model Averaging forecasts sometimes do quite a bit better than the random walk benchmark (in terms of mean square prediction error), while they never do much worse. The forecasts generated by this model averaging methodology are however very close to (but not identical to) those from the random walk forecast.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

245. Contagion: An Empirical Test

Author:
Jon Wongswan
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Using the conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), this paper tests for the existence and pattern of contagion and capital market integration in global equity markets. Contagion is defined as significant excess conditional correlation among different countries' asset returns above what could be explained by economic fundamentals (systematic risks). Capital market integration is defined as the situation in which only systematic risks are priced. The paper uses a panel of sixteen countries, divided into three blocs: Asia, Latin America, and Germany-U.K.-U.S., for the period from 1990 through 1999. The results show evidence of contagion and capital market integration. In addition, contagion is found to be a regional phenomenon.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Asia, Germany, and Latin America

246. The USA and UNESCO: Building Knowledge, Building Cultures

Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, UNESCO, was founded after World War II to contribute to peace and security. Collaboration among nations through education, science and culture remains a cornerstone of a peaceful world order. The founders of UNESCO believed that the rule of law, respect for human rights, and freedom of expression would be strengthened through international cooperation. The need for the world community to renew its efforts to advance these principles has never been more urgent. American leadership in the service of peace and security can help mobilize multilateral institutions, including UNESCO, to stand up for common values that promote tolerance and thwart terrorism. The sanctity of human life must be a common commitment.
Topic:
International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States

247. The Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Multinationals' Returns

Author:
Jane Ihrig and David Prior
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
<p>This paper examines if the type of exchange rate used or size of the movement in the exchange rate matters in estimating exchange-rate exposure of U.S. nonfinancial multinationals. We find that switching from a broad trade-weighted exchange rate to a 2-digit SIC industry exchange rate increases the number of significantly exposed firms in a simple Jorion (1990) regression by 60 percent. Then separating crisis from non-crisis months we find additional evidence of exposure. Although the value of exposure does not change with the size of the exchange rate movement, we find some firms have significant exposure only in crisis periods while others have significant exposure only during normal fluctuations in exchange rates. All told, we find about 1 in 4 firms' returns is significantly affected by movement in the exchange rate between 1995 and 1999. </p><blockquote><p> </p> </blockquote><p> </p><p> </p>
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

248. SARS: Down But Still a Threat

Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) was requested by Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson and Ambassador Jack Chow, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Health Affairs. It highlights the evolution of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the potential implications of the disease for the United States under several scenarios; this paper does not attempt to provide a scientific assessment of the epidemiology of SARS. Even though SARS has infected and killed far fewer people than other common infectious diseases such as influenza, malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS, it has had a disproportionately large economic and political impact because it spread in areas with broad international commercial links and received intense media attention as a mysterious new illness that seemed able to go anywhere and hit anyone.
Topic:
International Relations, Human Welfare, Poverty, and Third World
Political Geography:
United States

249. Strategic Reactions to American Preeminence: Great Power Politics in the Age of Unipolarity

Author:
John G. Ikenberry
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
American global power – military, economic, technological, cultural, and political – is one of the great realities of our age. Never before has one country been so powerful and unrivaled. The United States began the 1990s as the world's only superpower and its advantages continued to grow through the decade. After the Cold War, the United States reduced its military spending at a slower rate than other countries and its economy grew at a faster pace. The globalization of the world economy has reinforced American economic and political dominance. No ideological challengers are in site. More recently, in response to terrorist attacks, the United States has embarked on a massive military buildup. In the recent National Security Strategy, the Bush administration has articulated an ambitious and provocative global military role for the United States in confronting new-age threats. Overall, American power advantages are multidimensional, unprecedented, and unlikely to disappear any time soon. The world has taken notice of these developments. Indeed, the post-Cold War rise of American power -- what might be called the rise of American "unipolarity" -- has unsettled world politics. Governments everywhere are worried about the uncertainties and insecurities that appear to flow from such extreme and unprecedented disparities of power. The shifting global security environment – triggered by the terrorist attacks of September 11th –also has conspired to upset old relationships and expectations. The American invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have put American power on display and raised far-reaching questions about the use of force, alliances, weapons of mass destruction, sovereignty and interventionism. The world is in the midst of a great geopolitical adjustment process. Governments are trying to figure out how an American-centered unipolar order will operate. How will the United States use its power? Will a unipolar world be built around rules and institutions or the unilateral exercise of American power? This global worry about how a unipolar world will operate – in which the most basic questions about the character of world politics are at stake, namely, who benefits and who commands – is the not-so-hidden subtext of all the recent controversies in America's relations with the rest of the world. The question posed in this report is: how are the major countries around the world responding to American global preeminence? Overall, strategies and policies are mostly still in flux around the world. Responses up to now have been mostly ad hoc. Governments are learning, adapting, negotiating, and reacting – thus it is not possible to identify fixed "strategies of response." This report seeks to help us understand these evolving responses in two ways: first, it will provide conceptual tools to identify and track strategic responses by major states to American preeminence, and second, it will offer some preliminary characterizations of the patterns of response, particularly by Western Europe, Russia, and China. This report might be seen as a sort of "field guide" to global reactions rather than a definitive theoretical and empirical statement on the subject. I begin by offering a summary of the findings. After this, I look at the rise of American unipolar power and the variety of ways that American power is "experienced" around the world. In the next section, I survey the deeper sources and multifaceted character of American unipolar power. Next I explore the limits of the basic strategies of response to concentrated power – balancing, bandwagoning and binding. In the next section, I explore some of the emerging strategies that are appearing among the major countries. Finally, in the conclusion I return to the issue of unipolar power and rule-based order.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
United States and America

250. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Discriminate Use of Force

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In the terms of reference, the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics directed the task force “to conduct a comprehensive study of the ends and means of precision compellence, or the nuanced use of force, in concert with coalition partners, to achieve political, economic and moral change in countries affecting US interests.” Real-world events have since underscored the need for such a study; indeed, the U.S. military applied key elements of a measured, nuanced approach in both the Afghanistan and Iraq campaigns. We are pleased to note this evolution in operations and a parallel evolution in the thinking of the combatant commands and Services. Because of this evolution, it is no longer as necessary as it once was to sell the fundamental objectives of what we term here the discriminate use of force (DUF).
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States