Number of results to display per page
Search Results
102. Some Assembly Required: Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement
- Author:
- Timothy Carney
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Regional mediators and international facilitators helped the two main opposing forces in Sudan's fifty-year civil war, the National Congress Party (NCP) of the North and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement and Army (SPLM/A) of the South, to reach a detailed Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) after two-and-a-half years of negotiation, from 2002 to 2005. The United States served as the catalyst for the peace process and then became part of a group of facilitators including the United Kingdom, Norway, and Italy. At different points during negotiations, each of these countries exerted influence on the Sudanese parties. Kenya took the lead in mediating the negotiations under General Lazaro Sumbeiywo. Sudan Vice President Ali Osman Taha, representing the North, and Dr. John Garang, representing the South, spent fifteen months negotiating the final agreement in Naivasha, Kenya. Implementation of the CPA requires continuing good security with minimal fighting, agreement on the boundaries of North and South that affect the distribution of Sudan's oil wealth, completion of midterm elections, and a referendum in the South. Slow implementation of key provisions of the CPA is causing Sudanese to question the political will and even the good faith of the northern government. Failure to provide an immediate peace dividend, lack of competence in managing southern expectations, and corruption have led to public criticism of the southern authorities. Hope is waning that the CPA will pave the way to a modern, united Sudan with a government responsive to all its peoples. The SPLM/A leadership is focusing on developing the South rather than creating a national political movement. The crisis in Darfur has diverted the international community's attention. Implementing the CPA will require sustained international pressure and imagination to help resolve numerous political, economic, and social problems.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, United States, United Kingdom, Sudan, Norway, and Italy
103. Burma's Long Road to Democracy
- Author:
- Priscilla Clapp
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In August and September 2007, nearly twenty years after the 1988 popular uprising in Burma, public anger at the government's economic policies once again spilled into the country's city streets in the form of mass protests. When tens of thousands of Buddhist monks joined the protests, the military regime reacted with brute force, beating, killing, and jailing thousands of people. Although the Saffron Revolution was put down, the regime still faces serious opposition and unrest. Burma's forty-five years of military rule have seen periodic popular uprisings and lingering ethnic insurgencies, which invariably provoke harsh military responses and thereby serve to perpetuate and strengthen military rule. The recent attack on the monks, however, was ill considered and left Burma's devoutly religious population deeply resentful toward the ruling generals. Despite the widespread resentment against the generals, a successful transition to democracy will have to include the military. Positive change is likely to start with the regime's current (though imperfect) plan for return to military-dominated parliamentary government, and achieving real democracy may take many years. When Than Shwe, the current top general, is replaced, prospects for working with more moderate military leaders may improve. In the end, however, only comprehensive political and economic reform will release the military's grip on the country. Creating the conditions for stable, effective democracy in Burma will require decades of political and economic restructuring and reform, including comprehensive macroeconomic reform, developing a democratic constitution and political culture, reestablishing rule of law, rebuilding government structures at national and state levels, and building adequate health and educational institutions. The international community must give its sustained attention to Burma, continuing to press the regime for dialogue with the forces of democracy, beginning with popular democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and insisting on an inclusive constitutional process. International players should also urge the regime immediately to establish a national commission of experts to begin studying and making recommendation economic restructuring to address the underlying concerns that brought about the Saffron Revolution. Though China is concerned about the Burmese regime's incompetence, it has only limited sway with the generals, who are fiercely anticommunist and nationalistic. Nonetheless, Beijing will cautiously support and contribute to an international effort to bring transition, realizing that Burma will be seen as a test of China's responsibility as a world power. The United States should restrain its tendency to reach simply for more unilateral sanctions whenever it focuses on Burma. Because a transition negotiated with opposition parties is still likely to produce an elected government with heavy military influence, the United States must prepare to engage with an imperfect Burmese democracy and participate fully in reconstruction and reform efforts, which will require easing some existing sanction.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Beijing, Burma, and Southeast Asia
104. Chinese Views: Breaking the Stalemate on the Korean Peninsula
- Author:
- Scott Snyder and Joel Wit
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The second North Korean nuclear crisis, which climaxed with the test of a nuclear device on October 9, 2006, has influenced the views of Chinese specialists. By revealing the status of North Korean nuclear development, Pyongyang's nuclear test was a poke in the eye of Chinese leaders, who had tried privately and publicly to dissuade North Korean leaders from conducting a test. As a result, China has taken stronger measures to get Pyongyang's attention, including a temporary crackdown on North Korea's illicit financial activities. These changes spotlight an ongoing debate within the Chinese academic community over whether North Korea (DPRK) could become a strategic liability rather than a strategic asset. This debate centers on whether it is necessary to set aside China's loyalty to the current North Korean regime in order to maintain good U.S.-China relations and achieve China's objectives of developing its economy and consolidating its regional and global economic and political influence. Or is maintaining North Korea as a strategic buffer still critical to preserving China's influence on the Korean peninsula? An increasingly vocal minority of Chinese specialists is urging starkly tougher measures in response to North Korea's “brazen” act, including reining in the Kim Jong Il regime or promoting alternative leadership in Pyongyang. Although their sympathy and ideological identification with North Korea has waned, many Chinese policy analysts clearly prefer North Korea's peaceful reform to a U.S.- endorsed path of confrontation or regime change. China's policymakers have sought to forestall North Korean nuclear weapons development, but they continue to blame U.S. inflexibility for contributing to heightened regional tensions over North Korea's nuclear program. Chinese analysts fret that economic and political instability inside North Korea could negatively affect China itself. They have shown more concern about the North Korean regime's stability in recent months than at any time since the food crisis in the late 1990s. Chinese policymakers ask how to encourage North Korea's leaders to embark on economic reform without increasing political instability. Discussions with Chinese experts reveal considerable uncertainty about the future of North Korean reform. The possibilities of military confrontation on the Korean peninsula, involving the United States and either a violent regime change or destabilization through North Korea's failure to maintain political control, are equally threatening to China's fundamental objective of promoting regional stability. These prospects have increased following North Korea's nuclear test and the strong reaction from the international community, as shown by UN Security Council Resolution 1718. China's economic rise has given it new financial tools for promoting stability of weak states on its periphery. Expanded financial capacity to provide aid or new investment in North Korea might help it achieve political and economic stabilization. The Chinese might prefer to use the resumption of benefits temporarily withheld as a way of enhancing their leverage by reminding the North of its dependence on Beijing's largesse. Managing the ongoing six-party talks will pose an increasingly difficult diplomatic challenge for China. Chinese diplomats take credit for mediation and shuttle diplomacy, but their accomplishments thus far have been modest. Talks have been fairly useful in stabilizing the situation, but they have also revealed the limits of China's diplomatic influence on both the United States and North Korea. U.S. intransigence is as much an object of frustration to the Chinese as North Korean stubbornness. Chinese analysts clearly have given thought to potential consequences of regime instability. For example, the Chinese military's contingency plans for preventing the spillover of chaos into China and for seizing loose nukes and fissile material imply that Chinese forces would move into North Korean territory. Without effective coordination, simultaneous interventions in the event of unforeseen crisis inside North Korea could lead to direct military conflict among U.S., Chinese, and South Korean military forces. Rather than accept South Korean intervention backed by the United States as a prelude to reunification, Chinese analysts repeatedly emphasize that “the will of the North Korean people must be considered” in the event of instability. If intervention were necessary, China clearly would prefer insertion of an international peacekeeping force under UN auspices. Such a force would establish a representative government, which would then decide whether to negotiate reunification with South Korea.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Beijing, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea
105. China's March on the 21st Century
- Author:
- Kurt M. Campbell and Willow Darsie
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- After a protracted period of uncertainty concerning the nature of the foreign policy challenges that are likely to confront the nation over the course of first half of the 21st century, twin challenges are now coming into sharper relief. For the next generation or more, Americans will be confronted by two overriding (and possibly overwhelming) challenges in the conduct of American foreign policy: how to more effectively wage a long, twilight struggle against violent Islamic fundamentalists, and at the same time cope with the almost certain rise to great power status of China.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, and Asia
106. Climate Change and National Security: An Agenda for Action
- Author:
- Joshua W. Busby
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- When Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans in 2005, Americans witnessed on their own soil what looked like an overseas humanitarian-relief operation. The storm destroyed much of the city, causing more than $80 billion in damages, killing more than 1,800 people, and displacing in excess of 270,000. More than 70,000 soldiers were mobilized, including 22,000 active duty troops and 50,000-plus members of the National Guard (about 10 percent of the total Guard strength). Katrina also had severe effects on critical infrastructure, taking crude oil production and refinery capacity off-line for an unprecedented length of time. At a time when the United States was conducting military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, the country suddenly had to divert its attention and military resources to respond to a domestic emergency.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and America
107. Toward an Angola Strategy
- Author:
- Vincent A. Mai, Frank G. Wisner, William L. Nash, and ArthurMark Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Outside the continent's crisis areas, few African countries are more important to U.S. interests than Angola. The second-largest oil producer in Africa, Angola's success or failure in transitioning from nearly thirty years of war toward peace and democracy has implications for the stability of the U.S. oil supply as well as the stability of central and southern Africa. Consequently, the United States has an interest in helping Angola address its numerous and significant national challenges.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Angola
108. U.S.-China Relations
- Author:
- Dennis C. Blair, Carla A. Hills, and Frank Sampson Jannuzi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- President Richard M. Nixon reached out to the People's Republic of China thirty-five years ago to advance U.S. strategic interests by balancing the Soviet Union and reinforcing the split between two former communist allies. Nixon and his national security adviser, Henry Kissinger, briefed the Chinese on Soviet forces arrayed against China and also discussed the Vietnam War and Taiwan. Nixon and Kissinger sought to change the global U.S. stance from confrontation to détente and to extricate the United States from the Vietnam War. Their mission shifted the globe's geopolitical landscape.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and Vietnam
109. The United States and the WTO Dispute Settlement System
- Author:
- Robert Z. Lawrence
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The United States likes to think of itself as a nation that abides by its treaties and commitments. Successive U.S. administrations have taken the obligations implied by international agreements seriously: They have opted out of parts of many agreements for fear that compliance would be contrary to U.S. interests, and have refused outright to sign some treaties on the grounds of potential legal exposure. But U.S. behavior toward the World Trade Organization is different; in this case, the United States has been quite willing to accept binding multilateral rules. Yet, the United States has also been repeatedly judged to be in violation of its WTO commitments by the organization's dispute settlement panels, and although some violations could be ascribed to uncertainties about the meaning of the rules, the United States is also guilty of disregarding the rules deliberately. Opinion in Congress sometimes encourages this behavior; legislators are less likely to question the legitimacy of U.S. conduct than to question the WTO's authority to pass judgment over the United States. Moreover, these tensions are likely to escalate if the Doha Round of global trade negotiations breaks down. If the diplomatic route to market access is blocked, trading partners will seek access to U.S. consumers by bringing more cases before the WTO's tribunals. A surge in such cases could increase resentment of the WTO in the United States, weakening America's commitment to its traditional postwar role as the bulwark of the international trading system. This would be unfortunate, because even without changes in the behavior of its trading partners, the rules of the WTO improve the performance of the U.S. economy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
110. Whole, free and integrated? A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Neighbourhood
- Author:
- Fabrizio Tassinari
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the cold war until 2004, the United States and the European Union held largely complementary views towards the European neighbourhood. Washington's foreign policy mantra was that of a Europe 'whole and free', where the dividing lines inherited from the cold war were to dissolve through the gradual inclusion of Central and Eastern Europe in the Euro-Atlantic family of nations. The EU concomitantly focused on its enlargement strategy, which ensured that the transition of the former communist countries would be benchmarked and monitored, in order to attain the ultimate goal of their full integration into the EU.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
111. Offshoring, Outsourcing, and Production Relocation-Labor—Market Effects in the OECD Countries and Developing Asia
- Author:
- Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This working paper evaluates the validity of available data on and the extent of the impact of offshoring on service-sector labor markets in the United States, EU-15, and Japan. A three-tier data validity hierarchy is identified. The impact of offshoring on employment in the three regions is found to be limited. Correspondingly, developing Asia is unlikely to experience large employment gains as a destination region. The paper highlights the case of the Indian IT industry, where the majority of job creation has been in local Indian companies rather than foreign multinationals. Domestic entrepreneurs have played a crucial role in the growth of the Indian IT-related service industry. However, increased tradability of services and associated skill bias in favor of higher skilled workers could have an uneven employment impact on developing Asia. Some high-skilled groups are benefiting and will continue to benefit dramatically from new employment opportunities and rising wage levels. Meanwhile, the same skill bias may eliminate many employment opportunities for unskilled or low-skilled groups in the region. Developing Asian countries therefore face a double educational challenge in the coming years: the need to simultaneously improve both primary and higher education.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Asia
112. Current Trends in U.S. Study Abroad the Impact of Strategic Diversity Initiatives
- Author:
- Rajika Bhandari, Daniel Obst, and Sharon Witherell
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- To succeed and prosper in a global economy and interconnected world, U.S. students need international knowledge, intercultural communications skills, and global perspectives. This policy research paper will present the current trends in study abroad in the United States and will look at new funding initiatives and program models that have begun to strategically influence diversity.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Education, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States
113. Brazil with strong challenge ahead: Other BRIC countries enjoying stronger media support
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Media Tenor International
- Abstract:
- Despite its size, both geographically and in terms of its population, Latin America plays a rather insignificant role in international television news. With Western media for the most part still reporting within traditional and existing parameters (East-West), countries falling outside of these parameters seem to only appear on television when they violate these set norms and expectations (as in the case of Iraq, Iran, North Korea) or if they confirm existing stereotypes, such as crime and violence in Africa. With Latin America hovering on the peripheral of these issues (except for the United States-Venezuelan \'relations\' matter), it is no surprise that Latin America attracts only marginal coverage on television news. Swiss and German television news reports dedicated only 3% of their total coverage in 2006 to Latin America, while South African, British and Arab media dedicated less than 2%. Only U.S. television, largely due to reporting on Cuba and Venezuela, dedicated a full 5% of its total coverage to the continent.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Mass Media
- Political Geography:
- United States, South Africa, Cuba, Latin America, and Venezuela
114. The European Union, the United States and 'Liberal Imperialism'
- Author:
- Michael Brenner
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Transatlantic Relations
- Abstract:
- The Iraq crisis has been a stress test for the transatlantic partners.1 It is the latest in a series that at once has been revealing and redefining their relationship since the Cold War's end. The first Gulf War, Bosnia, and Kosovo: each measured the ability of Americans and Europeans to continue working effectively together. Each highlighted distinctive habits of national mind and action obscured by the exigencies of the Cold War. Each raised pointed questions about the pattern of interaction between the United States and its major allies. Each provided insights into the capabilities, limitations, and internal strains of multilateral organizations: NATO, the European Union, and the United Nations. Each altered attitudes and images in ways that affected how the next crisis was handled.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Europe, Bosnia, Middle East, Kosovo, and United Nations
115. The Promise and Peril of Public Anthropology
- Author:
- Ben Feinberg
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, as we accelerate our planetary experiment into increasing violence and social inequality, cultural anthropologists have increasingly expressed their befuddlement about why, amid all the clamor and reckless talk about the state of the world that characterizes public discourse, our voice has been notably absent. We have moved from the introspection of the 80s, when the big debates within the discipline involved tearing at our own flesh and flaunting the sackcloth of self-doubt: how do know what we know about other people? Are we not projecting our colonialist narratives onto the weak? Who the Hell do we think we are to talk so pompously and authoritatively about them? Emerging from this doubt, we remembered that, at the same time that we sparred with each other and devoured our elders in the hidden corners and footnotes of obscure journals, our discipline has actually reached a near-unanimous consensus—as strong as the consensus for evolution among physical anthropologists or for global warming among climate scientists—on a number of vitally important issues that are relevant to the masses outside our club, and could, if applied by the right people, actually benefit society and serve in defense of human rights.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- United States
116. Continuity and change in Italy's foreign policy under the Prodi government. The cases of Iraq and Afghanistan
- Author:
- J.C. Mahncke
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- “I see that under the Prodi government Italy already now has and even more in future will be able to have a big role in Europe, and that as a result of this role will be able to take on an important function in relation to the United States and the Arab world […] I believe that in the course of one month Italy has succeeded to launch a strategic rearrangement of its foreign policy.”1 These are the words of Massimo D'Alema, Italy's Minister of Foreign Affairs since May 2006. Indeed, the measures taken by the new Italian government of Prime Minister Romano Prodi indicate, if not a completely new orientation, a revised concept behind Italian foreign policy in contrast to that of his predecessor Silvio Berlusconi. Most striking is the withdrawal of Italian troops from Iraq, to be completed by autumn of this year. But Prodi wants to maintain Italian involvement in Afghanistan, and the government seems eager to uphold the traditionally good relations with the United States, despite the withdrawal from Iraq. While Prodi and D'Alema are in favour of a more important role of Italy in Europe and of the European Union in the world, close ties are to be kept with the United States. According to D'Alema: “The foreign policy of the government intends to favour the growth of an autonomous European actor but tied to the United States by solid and mature understanding within the alliance.”
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Asia, and Italy
117. Fighting on Borrowed Time: The effect on US military readiness of America's post-9/11 wars
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Considerable controversy surrounds the effects of America's post-9/11 wars on its armed forces – more specifically, their effects on military readiness. And there are grounds enough for concern in the August 2006 admission by General Peter Pace, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, that two-thirds of the US Army's active and reserve combat brigades registered in the two lowest readiness categories.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Defense Policy, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
118. Losing Hearts and Minds: World public opinion and post-9/11 US security policy
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The sympathy and support for the United States that surged worldwide in the aftermath of the 2001 attacks began to ebb as soon as US bombs began falling on Afghanistan. Supportive sentiments continued to recede through 2004, driven increasingly by the Iraq war and eventually settling at levels unseen since the early 1980s. The trend has temporarily reversed in some places at some times, either in response to hopeful news from Iraq (such as the December 2004 elections) or in reaction to local events (the November 2005 terrorist bombing in Jordan). Also, there are national exceptions to the trend (Israel) and partial exceptions (India). On balance, however, the United States today finds world opinion substantially at odds with its foreign policy and its leadership on most particulars.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Israel, and Jordan
119. Recent US Free Trade Initiatives in the Middle East: Opportunities but no Guarantees
- Author:
- Robert Z. Lawrence
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper evaluates the US initiative to establish a Free Trade Agreement with countries in the Middle East by signing bilateral agreements with the countries individually and then combining them into a single arrangement. These agreements present new opportunities for Arab countries, but to take full advantage, they will have to complement the agreements with additional policy measures, both individually, and together. The promise comes from the ability to use the agreements as a catalyst for improving regulatory rules and systems at home and facilitating integration with the rest of the region and the world. But the agreements also present problems for Arab countries, first in relating these US agreements to agreements with other trading partners – most importantly the EU; second in creating political difficulties associated with closer relations with the USA given problems in the region, and third, in undertaking the necessary economic and political policies that are necessary to realize the benefits.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
120. Inequality and Mortality: Long-Run Evidence from a Panel of Countries
- Author:
- Ricardo Hausmann and Edwin Lim
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- We investigate whether changes in economic inequality affect mortality in rich countries. To answer this question we use a new source of data on income inequality: tax data on the share of pretax income going to the richest 10 percent of the population in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, and the US between 1903 and 2003. Although this measure is not a good proxy for inequality within the bottom half of the income distribution, it is a good proxy for changes in the top half of the distribution and for the Gini coefficient. In the absence of country and year fixed effects, the income share of the top decile is negatively related to life expectancy and positively related to infant mortality. However, in our preferred fixed-effects specification these relationships are weak, statistically insignificant, and likely to change their sign. Nor do our data suggest that changes in the income share of the richest 10 percent affect homicide or suicide rates.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Globalization, Health, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Spain, Australia, Switzerland, Sweden, Netherlands, Ireland, and New Zealand
121. Precaution Against Terrorism
- Author:
- Jessica Stern and Jonathan B. Wiener
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Stunned by the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the Bush administration adopted a new National Security Strategy in September 2002. The UK government took a similar stance. This new strategy calls for anticipatory attacks against potential enemies with uncertain capacities and intentions, even before their threat is imminent. Rather than wait for evidence of weapons of mass destruction, it shifts the burden of proof, obliging “rogue” states to show that they do not harbor weapons of mass destruction or terrorist cells, or else face the possibility of attack. This new strategy amounts to the adoption of the Precautionary Principle against the risk of terrorism. We offer two main conclusions about precaution against terrorism. First, any action taken to reduce a target risk always poses the introduction of countervailing risks. Moreover, a precautionary approach to terrorism is likely to entail larger, more expensive interventions, so the expected opportunity costs are likely to be higher. While considering worst-case scenarios is important for the development of sound policy, taking action based only on worst-case thinking can introduce unforeseen dangers and costs. We argue that a better approach to managing risk involves an assessment of the full portfolio of risks – those reduced by the proposed intervention, as well as those increased. We argue that decision makers developing counterterrorism measures need mechanisms to ensure that sensible risk analysis precedes precautionary actions. Such a mechanism currently exists to review and improve or reject proposed precautionary measures against health and environmental risks, but not, so far, for counterterrorism and national security policies. We urge the creation of such a review mechanism.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
122. Jefferson Rebuffed - The United States and the Future of Internet Governance
- Author:
- Viktor Mayer-Schoenberger and Malte Ziewitz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- When after years of preparation and consultations, the World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS) concluded in Tunis with the adoption of the Tunis Commitment and the Tunis Agenda on November 18, 2005, the nearly fifty heads of state, vice–presidents, and almost 200 cabinet level government officials from around the world hailed it as a great achievement. For many of the 19,000 participants in the three-day meeting, which ended a multi-year process that had officially begun with the first WSIS meeting in Geneva in December 20035, the relief was palpable. Tense negotiations, public diplomacy, and a momentous switch of key players in the months leading up the Tunis event had at times put the prospect of a successful conclusion of the WSIS process in doubt.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Globalization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
123. An International Architecture for the Post-Kyoto Era
- Author:
- Robert Stavins and Sheila Olmstead
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In February, 2005, the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change came into force, but without participation by the United States. Its impacts on emissions of greenhouse gases — including carbon dioxide (CO) , the primary anthropogenic driver of climate change — will be trivial; but scientific (Robert T. Watson 2001) and economic analyses (Charles D. Kolstad and Michael A. Toman 2001) point to the need for a credible international approach.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Environment, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
124. Sistani, the United States and Politics in Iraq: From Quietism to Machiavellianism?
- Author:
- Reidar Visser
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This paper discusses the two prevailing interpretations of the political attitudes of the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the leading Shiite cleric in Iraq today. It is argued that neither the traditional "quietist" paradigm nor more recent Machiavellian interpretations can satisfactorily explain Sistani's actions. An alternative interpretation is offered which highlights Sistani's historical oscillation between passive and activist positions. It is suggested that, after an activist intermezzo from June 2003 to December 2004, Sistani has reverted to a more secluded role, again showing an increasing reluctance to fulfil the wishes of his many wooers in Iraqi politics, and limiting his interference to matters directly connected with the Shiite faith and its institutions. It is concluded that Sistani's professional interests as a cleric – rather than any constant desire on his part to control and manipulate domestic politics – may be the key to understanding any future intervention in the political process in Iraq. Scepticism is also expressed toward the notion of Sistani as a guarantor for a "moderate" or "secular" Iraqi political system that would supposedly be fundamentally different from that of Iran – an idea that has featured prominently in policy-making circles in the United States and in other Western countries currently involved in Iraq.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
125. American hegemony: A dangerous aspiration?
- Author:
- James L. Richardson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Australian National University Department of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The Bush administration's foreign policies have sparked off a round of new debates on America's power and its international role. At the core of these debates are ideas of empire and hegemony, but these terms are used in many senses and often interchangeably. The paper first distinguishes among these usages and spells out its own concepts. As understood here, a hegemonic power is one that plays a leading role in shaping and maintaining a certain international order, exercising its dominant power in such a way as to win broad acceptance and legitimacy. It is argued that the discussion of hegemony can best be advanced by distinguishing among the various domains of power: military, economic, ideological and political, to follow Michael Mann's breakdown. The US is closest to hegemony in the international economic domain, but in each domain its hegemony is at best partial and qualified. Nonetheless, it remains the preponderant power, with aspirations to hegemony and empire. The benefits of American preponderance are widely acclaimed in the West and infrequently questioned in the international relations discipline, but its dangers merit far greater attention than they normally receive. In particular, beyond the short-term context, the specifically American version of liberal ideology renders the US ill-suited to respond to some of the foreseeable challenges of the twenty-first century. Consequently there is a need for others to engage a great deal more actively than heretofore with the construction of a more viable international order.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
126. Intellectual Property Rights as a Key Obstacle to Russia's WTO Accession
- Author:
- Matthew Ocheltree and Sherman Katz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Russia has been in the process of seeking membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) since June 1993. Currently, the United States is the only major economic power that has yet to finalize a bilateral market access agreement with the Russian Federation. Most observers of the situation concur that the enforcement of intellectual property rights laws remains, along with agriculture, one of the two major hurdles to Russian accession to the World Trade Organization.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
127. Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations in the Post-9/11 Era
- Author:
- Frédéric Grare
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Taliban insurgents and their Al Qaeda allies, once thought defeated in Afghanistan, are regaining strength. Regrouped and reorganized, better equipped and financed, and more sophisticated tactically, they are threatening both the reconstruction process and the U.S.-led coalition forces on the ground. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, sixty-six U.S. troops were killed in combat in Afghanistan in 2005, more than in the previous four years combined.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Taliban
128. Suicide Terrorism and Democracy: What We've Learned Since 9/11
- Author:
- Robert A. Pape
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Over the past two decades, terrorist organizations have increasingly relied on suicide attacks to achieve political objectives. The specific goal sought in almost all suicide terrorist campaigns in modern history is the same: to compel a democratic state to withdraw combat forces from territory prized by the terrorists. This holds true for al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization of greatest concern to most Americans. Al-Qaeda's efforts to mobilize people to kill Americans are driven principally by a simple strategic goal: to drive the United States and its Western allies from the Arabian Peninsula and other Muslim countries.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Arabia, and Arabian Peninsula
129. Iran's Nuclear Program: America's Policy Options
- Author:
- Ted Galen Carpenter
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Although it is possible that negotiations between the leading powers in the international community and Iran may produce a settlement to the vexing issue of Iran's nuclear program, it is more likely that those negotiations will fail. If that happens, U.S. policymakers face a set of highly imperfect options.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Iran, and Middle East
130. Reappraising Nuclear Security Strategy
- Author:
- Rensselaer Lee
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The danger posed by Russia's inadequately secured stocks of nuclear weapons and fissile material is a major national security concern for the United States. Various cooperative U.S.-Russian programs aimed at securing nuclear material, weapons, and design intelligence have been mounted since the 1990s, but clever and determined adversaries may be able to circumvent or defeat the defenses that the United States and its partners are attempting to put in place. U.S. programs are by their nature reactive: they have long time horizons; they focus preeminently on the supply side of the problem; and they face serious technological limitations. Russia's imperfect commitment to nonproliferation also undermines the effectiveness of U.S. nonproliferation efforts.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
131. CATO Institute: Two Normal Countries: Rethinking the U.S.-Japan Strategic Relationship
- Author:
- Christopher Preble
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The U.S.-Japan strategic relationship, formalized during the depths of the Cold War and refined during the 1980s and 1990s, continues to undergo dramatic changes. Although Japan is economically capable and now seems politically motivated to assume full responsibility for defending itself from threats, it is legally constrained from doing so under the terms of the Japanese constitution, particularly Article 9. The path to defensive self-sufficiency is also impeded by Japan's continuing dependence on the United States embodied in the U.S.-Japan security alliance.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
132. Mad Cows and Ailing Hens: The Transatlantic Relationship and Livestock Diseases
- Author:
- Kate O'Neill
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- This paper examines how the emergence and spread of animal diseases such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, or “mad cow disease”) or avian influenza have shaped the dynamics of transatlantic trade in live animals and meat products. It then compares the responses of the US and the EU, respectively, to looming, potentially long-term threats of epidemics to human and animal health, focusing particularly on recent outbreaks BSE and avian flu. It documents what appears to be a shift away from a sole reliance on trade embargoes to protect animal and public health from disease outbreaks to deeper, institutional responses on the part of the US and EU respectively. However, while it appears that the EU is learning from the US public health establishment, there is little evidence of transatlantic cooperation in this area.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Disaster Relief, Economics, and Health
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
133. Struggling Over Civil Liberties: The Troubled Foundations of the West
- Author:
- Abraham Newman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Shared fundamental liberties and democratic principles have long provided the core of what observers of international affairs termed the West. While national institutions and policies have at times varied, they rarely challenged the foundations of the transatlantic partnership. With the rise of information technology and the new security environment, however, local variations in fundamental rights have produced significant international implications. Examining recent transatlantic disputes over privacy and free speech, the paper argues that a new set of international issues have emerged dealing with transnational civil liberties. Once core unifying principles of the transatlantic relationship these basic freedoms have transformed into flashpoints for conflict. After identifying this new trend, the paper argues that the nature of these conflicts is framed by the timing of international interdependence relative to the maturity of national regulatory regimes.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States
134. The Rise and Fall of the Bush Doctrine: the Impact on Transatlantic Relations
- Author:
- Justin Vaisse
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Between 2002 and 2005, a relatively coherent and profoundly renewed strategic approach to international relations was developed by the Bush administration. Premised on an optimistic assessment of great power relations (”a balance of power that favors freedom”), it emphasized the importance of promoting democracy as a way to solve many of the long-term political and security problems of the greater Middle East. It rested on the view that American military power and assertive diplomacy should be used to defeat tyrannies, challenge a pernicious status quo and coerce states into abandoning weapons of mass destruction and support for terrorism - without worrying too much about legitimacy or formal multilateralism. The Bush doctrine led to tensions with the Europeans, who for the most part shared neither the world view that underpinned it nor its optimism about possible results, especially as far as geopolitical stability, terrorism and weapons of mass destruction were concerned. Then, in 2005, two silent developments took place: the Bush administration, while insisting on staying the course rhetorically (through “transformational diplomacy”), reverted to classical realism in its actual diplomacy - largely for reasons of expediency. China and India, on the other hand, imposed themselves on the global agenda, bringing multipolarity back into the picture of the world to come. While generally closer to European views, the new American realist line remains distinct from the European insistence on strengthening the rules and institutions of global governance.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Terrorism, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, and Middle East
135. The Unraveling of the Atlantic Order: Historical Breakpoints in U.S.-European Relations
- Author:
- Charles A. Kupchan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- The argument of this paper is that the Atlantic order is in the midst of a fundamental transition. The transatlantic discord that has emerged since the late 1990s marks a historical breakpoint; foundational principles of the Atlantic security order that emerged after World War II have been compromised. Mutual trust has eroded, institutionalized cooperation can no longer be taken for granted, and a shared Western identity has attenuated. To be sure, the Atlantic democracies continue to constitute a unique political grouping. But as scholars and policy makers alike struggle to diagnose the troubles that have befallen the Atlantic community and to prescribe mechanisms for redressing the discord, they would be wise to recognize the scope of change that has been taking place in the Atlantic order.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
136. The Idea of the West:: Changing Perspectives on Europe and America
- Author:
- Andrew Gamble
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- America owes its origins to Europe and is unthinkable without Europe, but there has always been a strand of American thinking which has downplayed the connection and wished to assert the exceptionalism of the American experience and the need for America to keep Europe at a distance to involve contamination from its old, corrupt power politics. Europeans were fascinated by the new world unfolding in America, which contrasted so sharply with their own, yet was so intimately related to it. At the same time they regarded America as for the most part a novice and outsider in world politics. Recently roles have been reversed, with many Europeans condemning America as a new Empire, while many Americans accuse Europe of refusing to share the burdens and make the hard choices needed for global leadership. The idea of the West which for four decades united Western Europe under American leadership after 1945 has been undermined. Different current meanings of the 'West' are explored through recent arguments about the nature of the relationship between Europe and America, focusing on narratives of security, modernity and ideology. A number of possible scenarios for the future of this relationship are then outlined.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
137. An Index of Donor Performance
- Author:
- David Roodman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The Commitment to Development Index of the Center for Global Development rates 21 rich countries on the “development-friendliness” of their policies. It is revised and updated annually. The component on foreign assistance combines quantitative and qualitative measures of official aid, and of fiscal policies that support private charitable giving. The quantitative measure uses a net transfers concept, as distinct from the net flows concept in the net Official Development Assistance measure of the Development Assistance Committee. The qualitative factors are: a penalty for tying aid; a discounting system that favors aid to poorer, better-governed recipients; and a penalty for “project proliferation.” The charitable giving measure is based on an estimate of the share of observed private giving to developing countries that is attributable to a) lower overall taxes or b) specific tax incentives for giving. De-spite the adjustments, overall results are dominated by differences in quantity of official aid given. This is because while there is a seven-fold range in net concessional transfers/GDP among the scored countries, variation in overall aid quality across donors appears far lower, and private giving is generally small. Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden score highest while the largest donors in absolute terms, the United States and Japan, rank at or near the bottom. Standings by the 2006 methodology have been relatively stable since 1995.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Norway, and Netherlands
138. How Multinational Investors Evade Developed Country Laws
- Author:
- Theodore H. Moran
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- How effective are G-8 and OECD efforts to combat bribery and corrupt payments when multinational companies bid on concessions in the developing world? Have the rich countries – and the United States, in particular – done what is necessary to restrain multinational investors from paying off daughters of Presidents and cronies of Ministers to secure favors for their activities?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
139. Remembering George Kennan: Lessons for Today?
- Author:
- Melvyn Leffler
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Kennan's thinking and policy prescriptions evolved quickly from the time he wrote the “Long Telegram” in February 1946 until the time he delivered the Walgreen Lectures at the University of Chicago in 1950. His initial emphasis was on the assessment of the Soviet threat. With new documents from the Soviet archives, we can see that the “Long Telegram” and the “Mr. X” article contained both brilliant insights and glaring omissions. After he was appointed by Secretary of State George C. Marshall to head the newly formed Policy Planning Staff, Kennan's thinking evolved from a focus on threat assessment to an emphasis on interests. Believing that the Soviet threat was political and ideological, and not military, Kennan stressed the importance of reconstructing Western Europe and rebuilding western Germany and Japan. The key task was to prevent the Kremlin from gaining a preponderance of power in Eurasia. Kennan always believed that containment was a prelude to rollback and that the Soviet Union could be maneuvered back to its prewar borders. Eventually, the behavior of the Kremlin would mellow and its attitudes toward international relations would change. The United States needed to negotiate from strength, but the object of strength was, in fact, to negotiate—and compromise. It was important for the United States to avoid overweening commitments. American insecurity stemmed from a mistaken emphasis on legalism and moralism. The United States could not transform the world and should not seek to do so. Goals needed to be modest, linked to interests, and pursued systematically. Kennan would have nothing but disdain for a policy based on notions of a “democratic peace.” But the empirical evidence of social scientists cannot be ignored. Should the pursuit of democracy no longer be seen as a value, but conceived of as an interest?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Japan, America, Europe, Eurasia, Asia, Soviet Union, Germany, and Chicago
140. Morocco: Betting on a Truth and Reconciliation Commission
- Author:
- Pierre Hazan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Facing the Atlantic and Mediterranean, just nine miles from the Spanish coast, Morocco is essential for stability in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and American interests in these regions. The United States and the European Union fully recognize its strategic importance. Its proximity, large diaspora, and extensive trade with Europe place it at the top of the EU's Mediterranean strategy agenda. The United States has designated Morocco a major non-NATO ally; it also was one of the first Arab countries to sign a free-trade agreement with the United States. The Kingdom of Morocco is facing four challenges: weak economic growth; a social crisis resulting from social inequalities, with 20 percent of the population in absolute poverty and 57 percent illiterate; lack of trust in the governing institutions because of the high level of corruption; and an unstable regional and international environment. These factors strengthen the appeal of various Islamist movements, from moderate to more radical groups such as the authors of the deadly bombings in Casablanca in 2003 and Madrid in 2004. Moreover, the conflict over the Western Sahara places Morocco's and Algeria's armies, the two most powerful in North Africa, toe to toe. Unlike Tunisia and Algeria, since the end of the Cold War Morocco has taken steps toward political liberalization, and its pace has accelerated since Mohammed VI came to the throne in 1999. As part of the process of liberalization, the king established a truth and reconciliation commission (TRC) in January 2004. This is one of very few cases in which a TRC was created without a regime change. Thousands of victims tortured during the reign of King Mohammed's father, King Hassan II, have been given the opportunity to voice their sufferings publicly and have been promised financial compensation. Such outcomes are unprecedented in a region known for its culture of impunity. Morocco is the first Arab Islamic society to establish a TRC. Its experience shows that political factors play a primary role in the functioning of such a body, while religious and cultural factors are of secondary importance. Although the Moroccan TRC is not an exportable model, it could inspire other majority Muslim societies, such as Afghanistan and Lebanon, which are envisaging or might set up TRCs to confront crimes of past regimes. Some security experts hoped the TRC would be effective in the “soft war” against terrorism by winning the hearts and minds of the population. The actual experience in Morocco shows the limits of this approach. The tension is too strong between the perceived requirements of the antiterrorist struggle and a process to establish accountability for past crimes and advance democratization. In the final analysis, the “war against terrorism” has limited the TRC's impact in Morocco. The report of the Moroccan TRC, published in early 2006, recommended diminution of executive powers, strengthening of parliament, and real independence for the judicial branch. The king and the political parties must decide in the coming years if they will permit the transformation of the “executive monarchy” of Morocco into a parliamentary monarchy. This decision will affect the stability of the kingdom, North Africa, and, to a lesser extent, Europe and the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, United States, America, Europe, Middle East, Arabia, Algeria, Spain, North Africa, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia
141. UNCLOS and its Limitations as the Foundation for a Regional Maritime Security Regime
- Author:
- Sam Bateman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) provides the foundation for an effective regional maritime security regime. However, this large and complex Convention is not without its limitations. There are many examples of apparent noncompliance with its norms and principles, and the United States, as a key player in regional maritime security, is still not a party to it. The root causes of these problems lie in basic conflicts of interest between countries on law of the sea issues, the "built-in" ambiguity of UNCLOS in several of its key regimes, and the geographical complexity of the East Asian region in particular.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Law, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States
142. A Tale of Two Genocides: The Failed U.S. Response to Rwanda and Darfur
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- In 1994, an estimated 800,000 people died in Rwanda, as the U.S. and the international community failed to mount an intervention to stop genocide. Senior U.S. officials later expressed regret, and acknowledged that this crime against humanity should have invoked a more urgent and active response. It is reported that President Bush reviewed a memo on the Rwandan genocide early in his presidency and wrote “Not on my Watch” in the margin of that document.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Genocide
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Rwanda
143. A Chronology of International Failures on Darfur (April 2005 - June 2006)
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- The people of Darfur have faced more than three years of government - sponsored genocide. As the death toll continues to rise and violence continues to be tragically commonplace, the U.S. and the international community are still failing to mount a real response to this genocide. The following chronology shows that, despite another year's worth of official statements and promises, the crisis in Darfur continues and still demands urgent international action.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Genocide
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States
144. Soft Power, Hard Issues: Reports of the 2005 Aspen Institute Roundtable on Public Diplomacy and the Middle East and the Forum on Communications and Society
- Author:
- Shanthi Kalathil
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Having lapsed in importance following the end of the Cold War, public diplomacy has reemerged as a focal point for policymakers, scholars, and practitioners. Particularly following the attacks of September 11, 2001, American public diplomacy in the Middle East has rocketed to a place of prominence in the U.S. foreign policy toolkit. Yet even as resources and attention are trained on refining the U.S. public diplomacy strategy, there is little consensus on core problems, effective solutions, and what success might tangibly look like.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Middle East, Asia, and Arabia
145. Generating Momentum for a New Era in U.S.-Turkey Relations
- Author:
- Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall and Stephen Cook
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The growing schism between the West and the Islamic world is one of the primary challenges confronting American foreign and defense policymakers. As a consequence, the relationship between the United States and Turkey—a Western-oriented, democratizing Muslim country—is strategically more important than ever. Turkey has the potential to be an invaluable partner as Washington endeavors to chart an effective course in its relations with the Muslim world. However, to achieve this level of cooperation, U.S.-Turkey relations must be repaired and modernized.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Washington, Turkey, and North America
146. U.S.-India Nuclear Cooperation
- Author:
- Michael Levi and Charles Ferguson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The United States has long sought to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and to build a relationship with India, a rising power but a nuclear pariah since it first exploded an atomic bomb in 1974. In announcing a sweeping negotiated framework for nuclear cooperation with India on July 18, 2005, followed by an agreement on details on March 2, 2006, the Bush administration has stirred deep passions and put Congress in the seemingly impossible bind of choosing between approving the deal and damaging nuclear nonproliferation, or rejecting the deal and thereby setting back an important strategic relationship. Yet patience and a few simple fixes would address major proliferation concerns while ultimately strengthening the strategic partnership—provided Congress and the administration work together.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, India, Asia, and North America
147. Avoiding Conflict in the Horn of Africa: U.S. Policy Toward Ethiopia and Eritrea
- Author:
- Terrance Lyons
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- In 2006, the Horn of Africa witnessed major escalations in several conflicts, a marked deterioration of governance in critical states, and a general unraveling of U.S. foreign policy toward the strategically located region. The U.S.-brokered Algiers Agreement to end the 1998–2000 border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is at a crossroads. Ethiopia has resisted implementing the decisions made by the Eritrea-Ethiopia Border Commission (EEBC), Eritrea has imposed unilateral restrictions on the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE), and both states have rejected the EEBC's plans to demarcate the border unilaterally. In Sudan, implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement remains incomplete, and the violence in Darfur continues to rage and spill into Chad. In Somalia, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has failed to establish itself outside of Baidoa and its rival, the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), has seized control of Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia. The rapid rise of the UIC in mid-2006 in particular amplified prospects for regional conflict as Ethiopia and Eritrea sent significant military support to the opposing sides. On December 6, 2006, the UN Security SudanCouncil unanimously endorsed Resolution 1725, a plan supported by Washington to deploy African troops to prop up the authorities in Baidoa. The Islamic Courts have stated that this intervention will be regarded as an invading force and will escalate, rather than reduce, the conflict.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Development
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, United States, Washington, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea
148. Foreign Investment in the US (I): Disappearing in a black hole?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The US international investment position today should in principle be equal to the sum of past current account balances (mostly deficits). However, this is by far not the case even taking into account the balancing item 'errors and omissions'. Between 1982 and 2004, the US has accumulated a grand total of around $4.5 trillion (thousand billion). (The sum of current account deficits has been about $1 trillion smaller than the amount of net sales of US assets to the rest of the world because of the anomaly in reinvested earning.) Despite this accumulation of deficits the US net international debtor position (IIP) has deteriorated 'only' by $2.7 billion (and is now estimated – at the end of 2004, end 2005 figures are not yet available for the US IIP – at 'only' around $2.5 trillion). This implies a total of 'unearned' gains to the US of around $1.8 trillion during 22 years. The quite detailed data available for a somewhat shorter period (1989-2004) show that only a very small part of this sum, around 10-20%, can be explained by exchange rate and stock market changes.</p
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
149. Foreign Investment in the US (II): BEING TAKEN TO THE CLEANERS?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The income account of the US balance of payments has so far remained in surplus because of a very large differential in reported earnings on direct investment – US firms seem to enjoy a much higher rate of return than foreign firms in the US. There is little difference in terms of the rate of dividend payments; the difference is due to what is called 'reinvested earnings' (earnings minus dividends). Foreign firms report almost no reinvested earnings on their direct investment in the US whereas US firms report substantial reinvested earnings from their direct investment abroad, on average over $100 billion more p.a. than foreign firms report on their US investment. This anomaly is probably due to the desire of foreign firms to minimise their US taxes, whereas US firms do not face tax liabilities if they report high foreign profits to the US authorities. The procedure used to generate the data for reinvested earnings thus has a built-in bias to improve the US current account and – over time – its international investment position. The true picture is likely to be much worse.</p
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
150. Transatlantic Tensions and European Security
- Author:
- Mary Elise Sarotte
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Any nuanced assessment of current transatlantic tensions requires an awareness of their historical context. An understanding of the legacy of the Cold War in particular helps to answer the following questions: (1) What are the sources of current US-European tensions? (2) Has the transatlantic connection sustained mortal damage, or can it endure? (3) What changes of attitude and of focus might help the transatlantic relationship in the future? The argument is as follows: The US-European relationship is under assault not just because of recent US military actions but also because of a longer-term shift away from a successful US Cold War grand strategy that still had much to offer the post-Cold War world. However, cause for alarm is limited, because the history of cooperation, the lack of alternative partners, and the very real nature of external threats means that neither the US nor the Europeans have any realistic alternative to cooperation with each other.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe