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2. Balancing Security and Innovation: Opposition's View on Turkey's Digital Policies
- Author:
- Mesut Özcan and Ussal Şahbaz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey on May 14, 2023, are expected to be closely contested. Polls suggest that the ruling AK Party-led People’s Alliance will lose its majority in parliament, resulting in a hung lower house. This would create an opportunity for multiparty dialogue and temporary alliances on specific policy issues, leading to legislation that is the result of multiparty bargaining rather than the agenda of a dominant party. Against this backdrop, it is crucial to understand the Turkish opposition’s views on a variety of policy issues, with digital policies being a particularly underexplored one. At the intersection of political, economic, and technological issues, digital policies are regulations that have to adapt to a rapidly changing landscape of technological advances on a global scale. Turkey, as a regional power and an upper-middle-income economy, has attempted to take advantage of technological innovations to further promote economic growth and national security purposes. However, the AK Party government's efforts have been met with skepticism from opposition groups as they have fallen short of protecting individual rights and freedoms online. The study is organized into four sections, with an analysis of the political situation on the eve of the upcoming elections, a description of the technological ecosystem in Turkey, an analysis of the evolution of digital policies in Turkey under the AK Party’s successive governments, and a detailed overview of the main opposition parties' digital policy positions. This study thus provides insight into the future of digital policies in Turkey and the potential impact of the upcoming elections on this pivotal issue.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Digital Economy, Internet, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
3. A Fractured Border: Syria, Türkiye, and Cantonization
- Author:
- Armenak Tokmajyan and Kheder Khaddour
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Several factors related to the civil war in Syria have engendered the cantonization of the country’s north. From east to west, five northern border regions are to various degrees self-governing, though four are backed by, and even dependent on, Türkiye. Ongoing indirect negotiations between Türkiye and Syria—which were previously at loggerheads—may result in an adjustment of the boundaries of these cantons, but will not alter, let alone reverse, the phenomenon of cantonization.
- Topic:
- Governance, Syrian War, Borders, and Cantonization
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
4. China’s Response to Türkiye’s Volatile Authoritarianism
- Author:
- Ceren Ergenç and Kenan Göçer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates Türkiye’s evolving relations with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a large-scale program of infrastructure investment and project financing proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. The paper digs deeply into cases from two sectors—transportation and energy—focusing on how heightened and changing local expectations among Turks for these prospective BRI projects have shaped choices and outcomes, including China’s. In so doing, it explores how these shifting Turkish perceptions affect the implementation of BRI projects in Türkiye. This paper has several goals: it seeks to understand the reasons behind these local changes, the role of the state and private sector in Türkiye in these changes, and the way China has responded so far. Of course, domestic factors are not the only ones that shape the implementation of BRI projects in Türkiye or elsewhere; regional and global trends have had an impact too.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Infrastructure, Authoritarianism, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia
5. Let’s Learn Judo with Putin. Sport, Power and Masculinity in 21st-Century Russia
- Author:
- Leo Goretti and Sofia Mariconti
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Dedication to sport and physical prowess have been key elements in the construction of Vladimir Putin’s image since his rise to the Presidency of Russia. Domestically, the Kremlin has promoted a public representation of the President as a strong, energetic, decisive leader who is ‘fit for the job’. Constant emphasis has been placed on how sports – especially judo and those harking back to the Soviet past, such as sambo – forged the manly qualities of Putin, turning him into the living paradigm of Russian hegemonic masculinity. At the international level, Putin’s vigorous and masculine leadership has been turned into a proxy for Russia’s restored status: in the early 2000s, to mark a neat break from the ‘decadence’ of the 1990s; subsequently, to suggest the return of Russia to its great-power status. Hostility against human – especially LGBT – rights in sport has become central to this discourse, not only because they are suggestive of alleged Western decadence, but also because they threaten the gender norms and public image on which Putin’s leadership has been built.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Sports, Leadership, and Masculinity
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Eastern Europe, and Balkans
6. Structural transformation and sources of growth in Turkey
- Author:
- Ahmet Ihsan Kaya and Cumhur Çiçekçi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the supply and demand side of structural transformation in Turkey. Using the GGDC/UNU-WIDER Economic Transformation Database, we find that labour productivity improvements explain more than half of economic growth in the period 1980–2021. This is mainly thanks to within-sector productivity improvements, while the contribution of structural change declines over time. Time-series regression analysis shows that structural change is driven by per capita income growth and financial openness but is halted by trade integration. Furthermore, decomposition analysis from input– output tables demonstrates that domestic final demand has been the main source of output growth since 1980 and the contribution of export expansion has increased over time, but import dependency has persisted. The intermediate goods industry stands out as the locomotive sector in the economy throughout the entire period according to forward and backward linkage analysis.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Productivity, Income, Supply and Demand, and Structural Transformation
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
7. Erdoğan's Re-election as President Raises Concerns among Allies
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s win in the presidential election and ministerial appointments promises to further weaken democracy, move Türkiye further away from EU standards, and continue so-called personal diplomacy and transactionalism in foreign policy. This could prolong the Turkish parliament’s ratification of Sweden’s accession to NATO.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Elections, European Union, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Sweden
8. Azerbaijan-Türkiye Military Relations in the Shadow of the Negotiations with Armenia
- Author:
- Cavid Veliyev
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- This issue of Turkeyscope focuses on the essence and the impact of the Azerbaijani-Turkish military alliance in the Caucasus. By analyzing the deepening collaboration between the two states, Dr. Cavid Veliyev of Azerbaijan’s Center for Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center) highlights the shifting balance of power in the region in favor of the Azerbaijan-Türkiye duo in the face of ongoing tension with Armenia.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Territorial Disputes, Alliance, Negotiation, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan
9. Turkey is not the US and Kılıçdaroğlu is not Obama
- Author:
- Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak focuses on the recent May 2023 elections. He highlights the importance of sectarian identity as one factor underlying President Erdoğan's victory, which came despite the deteriorating economy, the earthquake disaster, and strong polling for his opponent.
- Topic:
- Sectarianism, Elections, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Earthquake, and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
10. Can Turkish Jews Act as a Bridge in Israeli-Turkish Economic Relations?
- Author:
- Onur Yılmaz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- This issue of Turkeyscope focuses on Israeli-Turkish economic relations. While highlighting the emerging challenges that may diminish Turkish Jews' traditional role, Onur Yilmaz of Izmir's Ege University analyzed the prospects of the economic relations by shedding a light on their contributions to the prosperity of both nations.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Minorities, Economy, and Jewish community
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
11. Deciphering Erdoğan's Regional Paradigm Shifts
- Author:
- Ofra Bengio
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Professor Ofra Bengio analyses the trajectory of Turkish foreign and domestic policies by examining three paradigms in Erdogan's strategy since the early 2000s. In addition, we offer our sincere condolences to the victims of the earthquake last week.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Weapons, Arab Spring, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, and Middle East
12. Autonomy Curbed? Kurdish Oil Exports Hit Snags from Turkey and Baghdad
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this new edition of Tel Aviv Notes, Josh Krasna examines the implications of the closure of the pipeline that delivered oil from the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq to Turkey's Ceyhan port, focusing on the state of relations between Erbil and Baghdad.
- Topic:
- Oil, Economy, Exports, and Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)
13. Governance Practices in Turkey: A Comparative Perspective
- Author:
- Dimitris Tsarouhas
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s latest National Development Plan seeks to attain economic and social development equal to that of the world’s most prosperous states. By structuring expectations and incentives for economic and political actors, institutions play a key role in achieving sustainable, long-term development. This paper provides a systematic longitudinal analysis of core governance indicators which shed light on Turkey’s evolution over time from a comparative perspective. The results point to a sharp decline in the institutional efficacy of the Turkish apparatus of state vis a vis core aspects of the country’s development agenda, especially with regard to the rule of law, public administration, regulatory capacity, and predictability. Turkey’s declining scores in recent years fly in the face of its political agenda and severely undermine welfare gains made in the early 21st century.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Governance, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
14. Turkey’s Kurds: Kingmakers in the upcoming elections?
- Author:
- Evangelos Areteos and Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Surveys show profound changes in the social attitudes of Kurds in Turkey. Younger Kurds are more liberal socially and more flexible politically. The years 2015–2016 marked a turning point for Kurdish society and brought different attitudes to light among both impoverished and middle-class Kurds. The AKP has been losing Kurdish support because of their alliance with the nationalist MHP and policies perceived as being anti-Kurdish. The CHP, while starting very low, has been gaining Kurdish support. The CHP’s strategy of reconciliation and talking about crimes committed against the Kurds in the past has been paying off. While the “Table of Six” does not offer much in the way of concrete benefits for the Kurds, some parties in the People’s Alliance (e.g. Deva, Gelecek) are more progressive vis-a-vis Kurdish demands.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Kurds, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
15. The Greek Defence Sector: Turning the Page?
- Author:
- Antonis Kamaras
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- From the 1980s to the 2000s, Greece’s defence industry was mismanaged and failed to utilize Greece’s high defence expenditures to become innovative. The impact of Greece’s fiscal crisis and the subsequent expansion of the Turkish threat mean that both economics and geopolitics now favour an invigorated Greek defence sector. The first major weapons procurement programme since the end of Greece’s fiscal crisis has not meaningfully involved the Greek defence sector. Yet the sector’s future prospects have improved, assured by the need for the sector to be financially viable and internationally competitive and by the broader awareness of the defence sector as a building block in national defence. The EU’s growing role in Europe’s collective defence, driven by continent-wide geopolitical developments and industrial imperatives, will also boost the prospects of the Greek defence sector. Mutually reinforcing obstacles still hamper the Greek defence sector’s progress: (a) a polity which privileges distribution over capital investments in its fiscal choices, and (b) an officer corps which lacks the degree of autonomy to co-create novel defence solutions together with the Greek defence sector. Despite these obstacles, the ongoing Turkish threat engenders national insecurity within Greece to such an extent that it can drive the sustainable growth of the Greek defence sector.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Innovation, and Defense Industry
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Greece
16. Dersimli Kemal for President?
- Author:
- Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- As of 6 March 2023, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, chairman of the CHP, is the joint candidate of the largest Opposition alliance. As such, for the first time, an Alevi has the chance of occupying one of the highest positions in Turkey. Since he is also Kurdish, he represents the two largest ethnic and confessional minorities in Turkey. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (74) was born in a small village in Dersim/Tunceli province. He managed to become the director of a state institution and has been the chairman of the CHP since 2010. The Alevi are by far the largest non-Sunni religious group in Turkey, representing roughly 15–20 percent of the population. There are huge differences in the definition of what an Alevi is, ranging from Anatolian Muslims to a branch of Shia Islam and from a religion in its own right to a culture. In both the Ottoman Empire and the Republic of Turkey, Alevis have been subject to persecution, discrimination and exclusion. In 1937/38, the state committed large-scale atrocities against the population of Dersim. The burning of a hotel in 1993 during an Alevi festival proved to be a turning point for Alevi awareness and civil society organization. The AKP launched an ‘Alevi opening’ in 2008 to address issues including recognition for Alevi places of worship and religious instruction; although the initiative continued until 2011, nothing concrete was achieved. Prejudices, discrimination and the othering of Alevis continue to this day. Since 2018, Kılıçdaroğlu has been the architect of the National Alliance; consisting of six diverse parties since 2022, the opposition group has been dubbed the ‘Table of Six’. In the summer of 2022, Alevi Cem Houses were attacked. President Erdoğan subsequently visited a Cem House for the first time in 15 years; in fall 2022, he announced the creation of a Directorate to deal with Alevi issues. On 14 May 2023, in the Republic’s centenary year, an Alevi could become president of Turkey. After many years of polarization, this could send out a message of unity, of differences bridged and differences accepted.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
17. A New New Turkey? What an Opposition Victory Would Mean for Ankara’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Nicholas Danforth
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The opposition foreign policy platform seeks to improve relations with the West while simultaneously continuing to pursue a more independent foreign policy. Securing the safe, voluntary and legal return of Syrian refugees through rapprochement with the Assad regime, as the opposition proposes, will prove a non-starter. Ultimately, a democratic Turkey that calibrates its foreign policy to the interests of its citizens rather than the interests of one man will be a stronger and more reliable actor on the global stage.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
18. Diplomatic scramble: Greek foreign policy towards Libya
- Author:
- Constantine Capsaskis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Libya became a country of immediate interest to Greece following its 2019 Memorandum of Understanding with Turkey. Greece engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity in the aftermath of the MoU, both within Libya and the wider region, to counter Turkey’s momentum with Tripoli. The complex political situation in Libya and its many facets (proxy conflicts between regional and international players, competition for energy resources, and other factors including religion) compound the difficulties confronting Greek efforts to shield Greece’s interests. European division over Libya has led Greece to seek other bilateral approaches, primarily through cooperation with France and Egypt. Turkey’s attempts to normalize relations with its regional interlocutors (primarily Egypt, Israel and Greece) following the devastating earthquake that struck the country in February 2023 may yet change conditions on the ground in Libya, though it is still too early to tell.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Greece, Libya, and North Africa
19. Restoring Competitive Politics: Electoral Contestation and the Future in Turkey and India, and Iran and Russia
- Author:
- Hugh Sandeman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- The institutions and practices necessary for open and fair competition for political power are eroding across the world. In some countries, such as Turkey and India, the democratic dividend of electoral competition has been steadily undermined by majoritarian autocrats who have proved adept in campaigning for office and winning elections. In others, such as Russia and Iran, political leaders have marginalised or suppressed electoral processes, reducing them to closely managed performances that seek to demonstrate public consent. At least some traces of the mechanisms of electoral competition often remain in place, however, even where genuine public consent has been almost extinguished. This leaves open the possibility that the trend away from competitive electoral politics could be at least partially reversed in future, in the context of political succession or the electoral defeat of incumbents. In June 2023, LSE IDEAS brought together experts from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and other institutions to examine the potential for restoring the democratic dividend of competitive politics in four major countries. Turkey and India were selected for their timeliness—national parliamentary and presidential elections were held in Turkey in May 2023, and national parliamentary elections are due in India in April 2024—and for their similarities: both political systems are characterised by powerful elected leaders with a strong record of performance in national elections, each backed by large political parties based on an appeal to national and religious identity. Iran and Russia were chosen as examples of two states where competitive electoral politics had been temporarily enabled by significant political change—respectively, an impasse in Iran’s theocracy in the 1990s, and the end of the Soviet Union—only to be undermined by the reassertion of autocratic power. Two assumptions underlay the planning of this discussion on ‘Restoring Competitive Politics: Electoral Contestation and the Future’. The first is that the characterisation of political systems as either democratic or autocratic provides an insufficient basis for explaining many differences in the workings of political institutions, or for guiding policy. The second assumption is that while certain institutions and practices appear to be essential to maintaining open competition for political power—including for example, freedom and diversity of comment in major channels of communication like broadcast television, radio, newspapers, and social media—there is no useful empirical example or theoretical formulation of an ideal or perfect democratic political system. The exclusion from the discussion of countries with longer established forms of competitive politics, such as the United States or the United Kingdom, was not intended to suggest an implicit comparison with ideal types of functioning democracies. On the contrary, there are grounds for concern about the maintenance of open competition for political power in every country professing to be a democracy. As David Runciman has said of the future of democratic practices: ‘The question for the twenty-first century is how long we can persist with institutional arrangements we have grown so used to trusting, that we no longer notice when they have ceased to work.’ He warns that ‘democracy could fail while remaining intact’.
- Topic:
- Elections, Political stability, Autocracy, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, India, and Asia
20. Turkey’s Watershed Elections: A Matter of Leadership
- Author:
- Alessia Chiriatti
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- It has been said numerous times in the last months that the upcoming 14 May elections in Turkey will be a historical watershed for the country. A crunch point that has not yet been widely explored in these months, though, is that of leadership mechanisms and the consequences of a possible change at the helm of the country, for both its democratic transition and the trust that regional allies (EU and NATO countries above all) can place in the country. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s erratic leadership appears to be on a tightrope, challenged by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the head of the Republican People’s Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi, CHP), the largest opposition party leading the Nation Alliance (Millet İttifakı). Due to the osmotic relationship between domestic (related to social cleavages) and regional (mainly securitised) dynamics, what the new leadership of Turkey will be, will also affect the future posture of the country and the willingness (or lack thereof) of other States to establish a trusting relationship with it.
- Topic:
- Elections, Leadership, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Domestic Policy, and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Eastern Europe, and Balkans
21. China Is Playing by Turkey’s Media Rules
- Author:
- Çağdaş Üngör
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Chinese players have localized their strategies to improve China’s image in Turkey in recent years. Although China and Turkey have long maintained friendly relations at the official level, Turkish people remained notably skeptical of China throughout the 2000s. Indeed, Turkey’s unfavorable public opinion has been a constant headache for China, whose propaganda outlets in the country produce little Turkish language content that actually resonates with domestic audiences. Turkey also has few explicitly pro-China voices and no sizable overseas Chinese community, which has made positive public relations into an uphill battle for Beijing. But having acknowledged these weaknesses in recent years, the Chinese regime has opted for strategies that aim at building a new synergy with local actors in the Turkish mediasphere. Beijing has adapted to the local rules of Turkish media and sought new opportunities to elevate China’s image in Turkey by leveraging its friendly ties with Ankara. The Turkish government, which exerts substantial influence over domestic media, has provided new platforms for China to realize its soft power goals within a largely polarized setting with little press freedom. In this context, Turkey’s progovernment newspapers have published “advertorials” celebrating the achievements of the Chinese Communist Party. Similarly, journalists from Turkey’s state-owned Anadolu Agency have participated in Chinese-sponsored press tours to Xinjiang, where Beijing has sought to undercut the Turkish narrative around abuses against the Uyghurs. On the other end of Turkey’s polarized ideological spectrum, China has also appealed to left-wing opposition groups through its narratives, which emphasize the country’s anti-imperialist credentials. Such messaging strategies may already have produced some results in Turkey, as the most recent opinion polls reflect a gradual increase in the number of Turkish citizens who perceive China as a potential partner.
- Topic:
- Media, Domestic Politics, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- China, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia
22. Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Alper Coşkun and Sinan Ülgen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Turkey is heading toward a set of twin elections that could have momentous consequences for the country’s future. In June 2023 at the latest, Turkish voters will be asked to choose a new president and a new parliamentary majority. For the past two decades, the Turkish political landscape has been dominated by the Justice and Development (AK) Party and its uniquely successful leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. After having ruled the country single-handedly since 2002, Erdoğan became the first executive president of Turkey in 2018, following a tightly contested constitutional change. He has come out victorious in every round of elections since the start of his political career. And yet, after two decades, his popularity is faltering, raising the prospect of political change. The turning point for Turkey’s political system has been the transition to a presidential system with the constitutional amendment of 2017.1 Since the start of multiparty elections in 1946, Turkey had had a parliamentary system, and since 2002 it has had single-party governments. With Erdoğan at the helm, the AK Party has won nearly all elections over the past two decades. It only failed to win a parliamentary majority in the most recent elections,2 in June 2018, and since then has been forced to rely on the support of the hyper-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) to secure control of the legislature.3 Alper Coşkun Alper Coşkun is a senior fellow in the Europe Program and leads the Türkiye and the World Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. @IACOSKUN The transition to the presidential system forced a realignment of the political constellation. The structural impact of this transition has led to the creation of two major political alliances. The Cumhur, or People’s, Alliance is led by the AK Party and includes the MHP and a small number of marginal parties. The Millet, or Nation, Alliance is led by the main opposition, the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP); it also includes the center-right/nationalist İYİ Party as well as the Saadet and Demokrat parties, which appeal to a smaller electoral base. The first real test of this alliance-based politics was the municipal elections of March 2019, where the opposition alliance performed markedly better. Millet-backed opposition candidates won the electoral race in nine out of Turkey’s ten major metropolitan cities, including Ankara and Istanbul. These cities had been ruled by mayors linked to the AK Party and its predecessors since 1994. Now the alliances are gearing up to contest the critical 2023 elections. The ruling Cumhur Alliance’s candidate will be Erdoğan, who will try to win a third term as Turkey’s president. The candidate of the Millet Alliance is still unknown. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, as the leader of the main opposition party, is intent on becoming the Millet candidate, but there are doubts about his electability against Erdoğan. Meral Akşener, the chairwoman of İYİ—the second-largest opposition party—has so far sidelined herself from the presidential race. Ekrem Imamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul, and Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, are also possible presidential candidates for the opposition. At present, all four potential candidates for the opposition are polling better than Erdoğan—fueling speculation about political change.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, Elections, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
23. Developing EU Trade Incentives: A Support Tool for Refugee Self-Reliance and Host Community Resilience in Turkey
- Author:
- Basak Kale
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The European Union (EU) is developing innovative mechanisms to investigate the root causes of migration in order to offer better socioeconomic opportunities both to migrants and host communities. These mechanisms and actions require multi-country bilateral and regional assistance tools to support different partner countries. Innovative and out-of-the-box ideas include multiple countries and various stakeholders. They are developed to provide cooperation solutions in different regions to have a wider impact on the causes and implications of migration. Despite these efforts, political, social, economic and environmental causes continue to generate human mobility around and beyond the immediate neighbourhood of the EU. The Arab Spring and the civil war in Syria have been creating human mobility in the EU neighbourhood. The war made approximately 7 million Syrians flee to neighbouring countries. Turkey is hosting around 3.7 million Syrians and another half a million asylum seekers and refugees from other regions (DGMM, 2021; UNHCR, 2021). The presence of Syrians in Turkey, together with other refugees benefitting from international protection, has become protracted. The efforts to create durable solutions in the form of “voluntary return, resettlement or local integration” have not yet successfully provided sustainable solutions. Turkey does not pursue an official state integration policy to integrate asylum seekers, refugees and the Syrians under temporary protection (STP). However, STPs, asylum seekers and refugees are becoming increasingly integrated into their host communities through informal and local integration mechanisms (Kale & Erdoğan, 2019). The delay in the access to formal employment and challenges in receiving formal employment permits aggregate the difficulties in the inclusion of refugees into formal employment schemes. Summer 2015 has shown that when there is a lack of economic and employment opportunities for asylum seekers, refugees and persons under temporary protection the incentive to have onward movement to other countries persists and the possibilities of integration in host communities stay low. It is clear that resilience-building and livelihood support through formal work is essential for vulnerable populations to have dignified living conditions in host countries. The EU-Turkey Statement in 2016 triggered the development of changes in the legal framework of international protection and migration policy. The Statement paved the way for the preparation of regulations on work permits for persons under temporary and international protection (Official Gazette, 2016). Legal developments targeted the acceleration of the economic integration of refugees into the Turkish labour market through formal employment. However, the difficulties in getting formal work permits resulted in only 132,000 issued until 2019. This indicates that approximately 4% of the STP working population has formal employment (UN Turkey, 2020). This percentage more or less matches the International Labor Organization (ILO) estimations (ILO, 2020). As a result, the majority of the refugee population is working informally, underpaid (Balkan & Tümen, 2016), without formal social and health security mechanisms, in unskilled jobs that are not wanted by Turkish citizens (Sunata, 2017). Informal employment has been a key element contributing to the lack of durable solutions and a protracted process. In Turkey, informal employment is widespread even among the host community members. It is estimated that there is about 30% of labour in host community among all sectors working unregistered. Informal employment is higher in sectors such as agriculture but significantly lower in the industrial sector. The COVID- 19 pandemic has also aggravated the increasingly poor state of the Turkish economy (Akay Ertürk, 2020). Previously, there were continuous efforts through FRIT (Facility for Refugees in Turkey) and 3RP (Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan) projects with programmes focusing on improving the employability of refugees in the Turkish labour market as well as support for the entrepreneurship capacities of the refugees in accessing the formal labour market. However, under the current economic conditions these projects are failing to generate a significant long-term impact on employment for refugees (Özçürümez & İçduygu, 2020). These projects provide short-term trainings or restricted employment possibilities while including a very limited number of participants. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic conditions have shown that these livelihood support arrangements when they are not based on rights-based approaches overtime can transform back into humanitarian aid services (Kale & Yavçan, 2020). Long-term policy planning needs to include other incentive mechanisms that will cover multi-country and multi-region solutions. In the long run, if vulnerable populations in the host societies turn into the most vulnerable requiring humanitarian and emergency aid, the incentive for secondary movements to third countries can be high.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and International Community
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey
24. Adapting to New Realities: Israel’s foreign policy in post-Netanyahu times
- Author:
- Gabriel Haritos
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Israel had to adapt to the revised objectives of the Biden administration in the Middle East and to update its coordination with Russia on the Syria front. The war in Ukraine has reconfigured Israel’s relations with the US and Russia. Israel’s reluctance to provide arms to Ukraine has allowed Russian-Israeli coordination to continue in Syria. The energy crisis triggered by the Russo-Ukrainian war led the US to revise its stance towards Saudi Arabia. The US-Iran talks ground to a halt in Vienna in the light of the growing ties between Iran and Russia. Israel took advantage of the new state of affairs, encouraging the rapprochement between Washington and Riyadh and countering the possibility of the US reopening its consulate in East Jerusalem. In coordination with the US, Israel has promoted the deepening of the Abraham Accords and drawn India into the new Middle East reality through the new I2U2 mechanism. Thanks to carefully managed communication, the Bennett-Lapid government was able to restore diplomatic relations with Turkey while maintaining close cooperation with Greece and Cyprus. It would seem advisable to put in place additional safeguards to maintain the quality of Athens-Nicosia -Jerusalem relations, similar to those which are expected to accompany the revamped relations between Israel and Turkey.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and United States of America
25. What is new about the reset between Israel and Turkey?
- Author:
- Selin Nasi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Entering 2021, revising its foreign policy became an ever more pressing necessity for Ankara, in the light of both international and domestic developments. The Turkish government only took steps towards mending its broken ties with countries in the region, including Israel, when the economic cost of its assertive policies began to threaten Erdoğan’s rule. Israeli PM Netanyahu’s defeat in the 2021 elections provided an opportunity for Ankara to step up its diplomatic overtures toward Israel. Bilateral relations may follow a different course than they did in the 2000s, primarily because the basic parameters of the relationship between Israel and Turkey have changed since Israel made new friends in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. The erosion of institutions and the subsequent personalization of Turkish foreign policy render bilateral relations prone to crisis. For Israelis, this is a manageable risk, at least for now, given the benefits Ankara can expect from normalizing relations with Israel. Against the backdrop of an intensifying power competition between the US and China, Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and the current security landscape in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean, opportunities for cooperation between Israel and Turkey remain dependent on the resolution of long-standing issues.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
26. A Contested Conquest: The Many Meanings of 1453 in Turkish Political Rhetoric
- Author:
- Nicholas Danforth
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Turkish politicians have invoked Ottoman history to justify everything from interfaith tolerance to aggressive irredentism. In the early years of the Cold War, shortly after Turkey and Greece joined NATO, Ankara sought to downplay anti-Greek elements in its 1453 conquest celebrations. Now, by recasting the reconversion of Hagia Sophia and Turkey’s Exclusive Economic Zone claims as matters of national sovereignty, Erdoğan has succeeded in winning support from his political opponents.
- Topic:
- Cold War, History, Domestic Politics, and Ottoman Empire
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
27. Threats, Instability and Disruption in Europe’s South
- Author:
- Marc Pierini
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s intervention in Syria in September 2016 turned out to have much broader objectives. The development of air and naval bases provided Moscow with platforms for operations in the Mediterranean and in Sub-Saharan Africa. The delivery of S-400 missile systems to Turkey added another major strategic gain. The European Union is faced by broad challenges on its South, with a sharp decline in rule of law, political instability, and a surge in authoritarianism. Wider phenomena such as climate change, demographic trends, and criminal activities of human trafficking networks add to the challenges. ISIL is still a threat too. Turkey’s choice of disruptive policies has perplexed EU and NATO leaders in the recent past. Tensions with the EU have risen due to challenges to maritime boundaries and sovereignty of Cyprus and Greece. Although largely a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union’s major foreign policy initiatives in 2022 have marked a watershed moment and constitute a useful precedent for the Union’s policies with third countries. In the near future, the EU will have to invent a new format, distinct from accession, for its relationship with the countries of ‘Wider Europe’ and to use its now diversified ‘foreign policy toolbox’ in a coherent and effective fashion.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, European Union, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Southern Europe
28. Turkey in Afghanistan: more than one reason to stay
- Author:
- Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Despite a long history of bilateral contacts, Turkey’s most intensive commitment in Afghanistan only started in 2001 with the NATO mission. A first friendship treaty was signed back in 1921; the first official foreign visit to the Republic of Turkey was made in 1928 by King Amanullah of Afghanistan. Turkey’s engagement in South Asia started with Afghanistan but has recently been Pakistan-centred. As the only majority-Muslim NATO country, Turkey was viewed more positively by the Afghan population and the Taliban than other NATO member states. Ankara has been reaching out to the Taliban since summer 2021. However, the Taliban have not met Turkish demands for a more inclusive government, or in relation to girls’ education. Turkey has become a haven for non-Taliban (opposition) Afghans, who are told not to voice their criticism of the Taliban. There are four main motivations for Turkey’s engagement in Afghanistan: 1) improving relations with the US; 2) stabilizing Afghanistan to prevent migrant flows; 3) getting a foothold in the geopolitics of the region; 4) benefitting from the economic potential. Kabul international airport is important both for the Taliban and for Turkey. For the Taliban, it is their window to the world; for Turkey, it is an opportunity to profit economically and to boost its international status. In Afghanistan, Turkey’s soft power approach includes TIKA (Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency), the Maarif schools, and the Yunus Emre Institute. These institutions have remained operational. In 2020, Afghanistan received the third largest amount of Turkish developmental aid, amounting to 36.5 million USD. Even if the world, and Turkey, are currently focused on Ukraine, Afghanistan will continue to occupy an important place in Turkey’s regional foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Taliban, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Turkey, and Middle East
29. Greece and Turkey in the world today: the public’s view
- Author:
- Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, Panagiota Manoli, and Evangelos Areteos
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The Policy Paper by Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, Senior Research Fellow, Head of ELIAMEP Turkey Programme; Associate Professor, University of Bilkent; Panagiota Manoli, Research Fellow, ELIAMEP; Assistant Professor of Political Economy of International Relations, University of Peloponnese and Evangelos Areteos, Research Associate at ELIAMEP Turkey Programme, highlights the main findings of the third joint poll in Greece and Turkey, which took place in the first ten days of May 2022. Among other things, it aims to capture and compare the perceptions of Greek and Turkish public opinion regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the role of the United States and NATO in European security, and Greek and Turkish identity.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, NATO, and Public Opinion
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Greece
30. Turkey’s quest for Strategic Autonomy
- Author:
- Alexandros Diakopoulos
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Ankara is pursuing a radical revision of the regional status quo by projecting power in neighboring regions with increasing aggression and disregard for international legality. Turkey moved from a security-based to a power-based foreign policy and took advantage of the power vacuum in Eastern Mediterranean to make a bid for regional hegemony by resorting to the use of hard power. The Turkish army developed autonomous expeditionary capabilities, bolstered by a strengthened national defense industry. The lessons learned in Syria clearly informed the series of Turkish foreign policy moves that followed. A revisionist Turkey involved itself in all regional theaters of conflict, fomenting instability in the region while also reaping strategic and economic benefits. These interventions shaped Turkish-Russian competitive cooperation and strategic realignment. Since 2016 the relationship has evolved into something almost symbiotic, with the two countries coordinating their presence on multiple fronts. The two countries are drawn to one another by their shared authoritarian models of governance and similar strategic cultures and operational codes: Both countries are revisionist, aggressive and assertive on their peripheries. Both countries claim to be surrounded, which serves as a pretext for their unilateral actions. Both countries have militarized their foreign policy by conducting hybrid warfare, using surrogate forces and coercing countries that resist.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Strategic Autonomy, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, and Middle East
31. A New History for a New Turkey: What a 12th-grade textbook has to say about Turkey’s future
- Author:
- Nicholas Danforth
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Contemporary Turkish and World History synthesizes Turkey’s rival political traditions into a coherent anti-imperialist narrative. It presents the military, economic and cultural struggle for a fully independent Turkey as the driving force in the country’s 20th century history. In this account, both Turkey’s much-touted drone program and ambivalence toward NATO appear as the natural culmination of long-running trends.
- Topic:
- NATO, Education, History, Drones, and Textbook
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
32. The Akkuyu NPP and Russian-Turkish Nuclear Cooperation: Asymmetries and risks
- Author:
- Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Eliza Gheorghe
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- By ratifying the 2016 Paris Agreement, Turkey has vowed to reduce the use of fossil fuels and promote clean and renewable energy production. The Turkish government has embraced nuclear energy as a solution to cutting carbon dioxide emissions. Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, Akkuyu NPP, is being built by Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom, under a Build-Own-Operate contract, the first of its kind in the world. The Akkuyu NPP will reinforce Turkey’s dependence on Russia for the next six decades. The Akkuyu NPP presents considerable environmental risks for the whole Eastern Mediterranean.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Nuclear Energy, and Asymmetric Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, and Middle East
33. Regional power competition in the Eastern Mediterranean: the return of naval power and the changes technology brings
- Author:
- Vassilis Nedos
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Energy games and the territorialization of maritime zones are the main reasons for the renewed arms race and regional competition in the East Mediterranean. The East Mediterranean is home to quite diverse fleets in terms of capabilities and technology. In terms of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) field capabilities, Israel is the local champion while Turkey is an emerging power; the remaining regional actors lag behind. Top-tier technology items manufactured mostly by the US aeronautical industry are either too expensive or are restricted to local actors; as a result, Israel and subsequently Turkey have developed indigenous capabilities over the last few years, which are highly exportable. Even though the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war now raging in the country has to some extent overshadowed the rising tensions in the East Mediterranean (which culminated in the standoff between the Greek and Turkish fleets between August and November 2020), there are still issues that need to be resolved which stem directly from the military build-up and the power balance, which has been seriously disturbed. Greece is already invested in catching up in terms both of numbers and technological capabilities. Nonetheless, to date, these efforts have failed to close the gap for two main reasons: Firstly, the agreements signed so far include little or no transfer of technology and know-how; Secondly, the local capabilities in both ship building and the aeronautical industry suffer from the perennial Greek state maladies. Investing in local AI technologies and solving the “Gordian knot” of the shipyards are prerequisites for developing local infrastructure capable of competing regionally in the long run.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Navy, Strategic Competition, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and Mediterranean
34. Achieving qualitative superiority: Greek conscription and the Turkish threat
- Author:
- Antonis Kamaras and Nikos Stournaras
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- This policy paper argues that, by emulating its peer countries, wealthy, small to medium sized democracies facing national security threats, in Northern Europe and the Middle East (namely Finland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Israel), Greece can modernize its conscript component and thus attain qualitative superiority over the Turkish Army. Turkey’s conscript model is riven by deep-seated class, geographical and ethnic cleavages, giving to Greek political and military leaders the opportunity to gain a qualitative military edge through judicious modernization of the Greek conscript model. Such a modernization is eminently feasible today as Greece’s economic crisis has created the political space to overcome resistance to the reform of conscription. By contrast, Greece’s main national security threat, Turkey, belongs to that group of authoritarian or illiberal countries which have suboptimal conscription models, featuring evasion of conscript service by the well-educated, inefficient training and harsh, counterproductive treatment of those conscripts who do serve. Greece, also due to its post WWII illiberalism or authoritarianism, and not unlike Taiwan which has a similar legacy, has not infused its conscript component with demanding training and operational standards, roles and missions. The time is ripe, due to the resurgence of the Turkish threat and Greece’s economic crisis, which has removed many of the country’s outdated shibboleths, to modernise Greek conscription, as its peer countries have done, and thus acquire an Army qualitatively superior to that of Turkey. By doing so, Greek policy-makers will decisively strengthen Greece’s deterrence and produce positive externalities for the consripts themselves . Indeed, the more effective conscription becomes in operational terms for the Greek Armed Forces, the greater the benefits to be reaped in civilian life.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Armed Forces, Deterrence, and Conscription
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece
35. Turkey’s “anti-colonial” pivot to Mali: French-Turkish competition and the role of the European Union in the Sahel
- Author:
- Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Dawid A. Fusiek
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s rising foreign policy ambitions have been best reflected in its pivot to Africa. One of the tropes used by the Erdoğan administration to advance its cause are references to the colonial heritage of the European Union (EU) and its member states. The AKP and its officials have employed this discourse to challenge the French influence in Mali since the 2020 coup d’état. As this paper shows, Turkey uses anti-colonial discourse to exploit postcolonial sentiments with a view to challenging the political and economic power of Western actors, to portraying Turkey as a legitimate and “anti-colonial” ally and partner and, in the long run, to establishing a robust Turkish presence in Mali, the Sahel and beyond. In order to counter Turkish influence, the EU needs to promote fair cooperation with Mali and West Africa, to assist with political and economic development in the region, and to mobilise Member States which are unencumbered with a colonial past.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Anti-Colonialism, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, France, Mali, and Sahel
36. Turkey’s Involvement in the Libyan Conflict, the Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean and Drone Warfare
- Author:
- Buğra Süsler
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- Dr Buğra Süsler’s Strategic Update explains Turkish foreign policy-making around a fragile Libya, highlighting its impact on power dynamics in the North Africa and the Middle East, as well as opening a gateway to sub-Saharan Africa. The paper addresses Turkey’s regional economic and political motives, the AKP’s increasingly hawkish use of hard power – especially the diplomatic and ethical implications of the Turkish military’s specialisation in drone warfare – and Ankara’s desire to maintain mutually beneficial relations with Libyan power-brokers key to post-civil war reconstruction.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Drones, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Libya, North Africa, and Mediterranean
37. Russian-Turkish Relations and Implications for U.S. Strategy and Operations
- Author:
- Hanna Notte and Chen Kane
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- Russia and Turkey’s complex relationship has significant implications for U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) strategic interests. The two states cooperate, deconflict, and compete in multiple theatres within Turkey’s extended neighborhood, which straddles United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM), United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), and United States European Command (USEUCOM) areas of responsibility (AORs). 1 Their bilateral strategic trade has created mutual dependencies and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and tourism. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has many implications for the Russia-Turkey relationship. While engaging actively with Russia and stoking fears that its commercial ties with Moscow could serve Russia’s evasion of Western sanctions, Turkey has also provided TB2 Bayraktar drones to Ukraine, invoked the Montreux Convention, and offered itself as a mediator on various operational issues in the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result of these steps, Turkey’s leverage over both Russia and NATO allies has increased since February 2022. From a U.S. perspective, the implications have been mixed as Turkey has translated its increased leverage into foreign policy steps that threaten to undermine U.S. interests and NATO cohesion. Turkey remains of significant importance to the United States in enabling its interests in the three aforementioned AORs, preventing third actors like China and Iran from operating in the “seams,” and generating an enhanced, unified, and credible NATO capability and capacity in response to Russian aggression. It follows that Turkey’s interplay with Russia in its extended neighborhood has far-reaching implications for the United States and NATO. This study aims to shed light on this relationship, its likely trajectory over the coming decade, its implications for U.S. strategic interests, and how the United States and NATO might shape the Russia- Turkey interplay to their advantage.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, North America, and United States of America
38. Qualitative Synthesis Maps for Data-Driven Urban Governance A Methodological Evaluation
- Author:
- Murat Güvenç
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- Prof. Dr. Murat Güvenç explains the methodology of maps produced within the scope of projects carried out by TESEV since 2016, including The Empowering Civil Society and Municipalities for Data-Driven Participatory Gender Equality Policies.
- Topic:
- Governance, Sustainability, Digital Policy, Mapping, and Methodology
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
39. Russia’s Climate Action and Geopolitics of Energy Transition: The Uncertain and Unsettling Outlook following Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Kamila Godzinska and Maria Pastukhova
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profoundly altered the outlook for Russia’s energy transition and created uncertainties on the global path towards net zero. In response to global economic shifts, Russia had begun taking steps towards decarbonisation, albeit without plans to depart from its hydrocarbon-based economic model in any substantial way. The new political, trade and financial environment induced by Russia’s act of aggression has damaged its potential to maintain the once-emerging momentum. Russia’s actions and the Western response are also reconfiguring global energy relations, with profound economic and geopolitical consequences that may, unless managed, undermine international cooperation on the energy transition and slow down progress on climate change mitigation.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Sanctions, Geopolitics, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Eastern Europe, and Balkans
40. Can the West Afford to Let the World Go Hungry? Overcoming Challenges to Establishing a Humanitarian Corridor in the Black Sea
- Author:
- Isak Runarsson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- While economic interdependencies do not prevent war, witnessed most recently by Russia’s naked war of conquest in Ukraine, the costs of war in a globalised world spread far and wide. Russia has taken the world’s food markets hostage by blockading Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. The resulting food price increases make a humanitarian crisis in the world’s poorest countries increasingly likely; this, in turn may lead to regime fragility and turmoil in the international system. The question of lifting the blockade by establishing a human corridor into the port of Odessa has recently been much discussed. There are challenges to any such effort, both strategic and operational. Yet a careful analysis reveals that the costs and risks of non-intervention are greater than the risks of intervening. An international naval force, co-led by the EU or its member states and Turkey is the best option for such a mission.
- Topic:
- Security, Food Security, Hunger, Maritime, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Black Sea
41. The Implications of the Ukraine War for Israel
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- For Israel, this is evidence that its self-reliance doctrine must be nourished with no illusions about foreign support in times of crisis. Moreover, Turkey probably sees NATO more positively since it borders Russia, pushing Ankara toward the West.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel
42. The “New Uzbekistan”: Turkey’s New Partner in the Pan-Turkist Organization of Turkic States
- Author:
- Hay Eytan Cohan Yanaroack
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Tashkent’s increasingly critical approach toward Russia and its deepening role in the Organization of Turkic States has positioned the country as Ankara’s most important bridgehead in Central Asia.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Turkey
43. The Libyan EEZ Challenge: Israel Should Reject Turkey’s Claims in the Eastern Mediterranean
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The delineation of the Libyan and Turkish Exclusive Economic Zones was and remains essential not only for Israel and Egypt but also for others in the region who seek to curtail Erdogan’s ambitions and shore up Egypt’s economic and political stability.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Mediterranean
44. War or Peace? Turkish Moves in Syria
- Author:
- Gallia Lindenstrauss and Carmit Valensi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Recent increased attacks on Kurdish targets in northern Syria by Turkey and the Syrian rebel groups its supports raise the question whether Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan intends to carry out his threat of May 2022 to begin another major ground operation against the Kurds. On the other hand, conciliatory statements regarding the Assad regime have been sounded recently in Turkey, and there has been discussion of the possibility of normalizing relations between the two countries after over a decade of hostility and competition. These two processes appear to be contradictory, given that the Syrian regime opposes existing Turkish control of Syrian territories, and does not wish to see this control broadened. On the other hand, this may be a calculated Turkish move that aims to show the Turkish public a concerted multi-faceted effort to confront both the Kurdish underground and the issue of Syrian refugees in Turkey. Discussion of events in northern Syria and the web of Syrian and Turkish interests can be used to assess the question, which trend will prevail in Turkish-Syrian relations: normalization or escalation?
- Topic:
- War, Military Strategy, Homeland Security, Peace, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
45. Normalization between Turkey and Israel: Will it Last?
- Author:
- Gallia Lindenstrauss and Remi Daniel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The decision by Turkey and Israel to normalize their relations stems from several processes that brought the Turkish side to push for normalization and the Israeli side to respond affirmatively. Yet alongside the serious motivations of the two sides to continue this process, there are issues that could become obstacles. Among them are the developments between Israel and the Palestinians, Turkey-US relations, the dynamics of Turkey's integration in processes related to the Abraham Accords, and the nature of future Israeli plans regarding gas exports. Nonetheless, coping with challenges related to these issues will be easier with senior diplomatic representation present in both countries.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia
46. Putin and Erdogan Meet in Sochi: Another Challenge to the Western Bloc
- Author:
- Bat Chen Druyan Feldman, Gallia Lindenstrauss, and Arkady Mil-Man
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The Presidents of Russia and Turkey held a four-hour meeting recently in Sochi, along the shores of the Black Sea, and discussed a range of subjects, from trade and energy to involvement in different combat arenas. What are the two leaders’ respective interests in their dialogue – and what should Israel conclude from the deepening cooperation between Ankara and Moscow?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Turkey
47. The Iranian-Russian-Turkish Summit in Tehran
- Author:
- Raz Zimmt, Gallia Lindenstrauss, Bat Chen Druyan Feldman, and Arkady Mil-Man
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The three-way summit between Presidents Raisi, Putin, and Erdogan intended to present a unified front against the Western axis, which imposes various levels of sanctions on the three states. But despite the cordial photos and warm handshakes, there are serious disputes between Tehran, Moscow, and Ankara. They are rivals no less than they are partners, and it is doubtful whether their meeting will lead to any substantive gains
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, and Middle East
48. Between Erdogan, Mitsotakis, and Biden: The Evolving Ankara-Athens-Washington Triangle
- Author:
- Gallia Lindenstrauss, Christoph Becker, and Remi Daniel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- “The Prime Minister of Greece no longer exists for me,” declared Turkey’s President, reflecting a break in the rapprochement seen over the past year between Ankara and Athens. What lies behind this change of approach, and how does this affect Israel’s relations with Eastern Mediterranean states?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Greece, North America, United States of America, and Mediterranean
49. The Gulf Countries and Turkey: (Re-)Drawing the Map of Alliances in the Middle East
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky and Gallia Lindenstrauss
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- After a decade of hostility, and against the background of Turkey’s weak economic situation and Iran’s expanded regional presence, there is a significant improvement in the relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. What opportunities might this change bring for the region, and how might this affect Israel’s relations with Turkey and with the Gulf countries?
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Alliance, Strategic Interests, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Gulf Nations
50. Walking a Fine Line: Turkey’s Mediation between Russia and Ukraine, and Relations with the West
- Author:
- Remi Daniel and Gallia Lindenstrauss
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s reaction to the Russian aggression in Ukraine was among the more moderate responses heard from NATO members. With an eye to the post-war situation, Ankara is trying to walk a tightrope and not overly provoke either side. What lies behind this Turkish policy, and is it viable?
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Mediation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Ukraine