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2. What does the Deraa surrender mean for Iran and Russia in Syria?
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- In the southwest, the outside powers of relevance are Iran and Russia. The arrangement in place from July 2018 until now was the product of an uneasy standoff between them.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Ceasefire
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Syria
3. The Making of the Kurdish Frontier: Power, Conflict, and Governance in the Iraqi-Syrian Borderlands
- Author:
- Harith Hasan and Kheder Khaddour
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Iraqi-Syrian border continues to be geopolitically restless. Kurdish parties have taken advantage of central government weaknesses to increase their autonomy in these areas. Even after the collapse of the self-proclaimed Islamic State, the Iraqi-Syrian border continues to be one of the most geopolitically restless areas in the Middle East. In the last few years, a variety of Kurdish entities and groups have increasingly shaped the dynamics across the northern section of this border. In particular, there are two dynamics that deserve attention. First, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the Kurdish-dominated Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria have come to effectively control new border crossings in this area as the Syrian government has lost access and the Iraqi government’s presence has been contested. This means that the movement of people and goods in this area is largely controlled by two entities that are neither state nor nonstate actors. The reality on the ground reflects hybrid arrangements that have emerged as a result of the weaknesses of both central governments and the increasing autonomy gained by Kurdish parties (which, in the case of the KRG, is stipulated constitutionally). Second, the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), by virtue of its participation in the war against the Islamic State and by taking advantage of the consequent power vacuum, managed to augment its influence along the border. Its ideological and organizational ties with local groups, such as the People Protection Units (YPG) in Syria and Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) in Iraq, enabled it to exert security and political influence. On the one hand, this turned segments of the border into an arena for transnational, pan-Kurdish militancy. On the other hand, these groups’ presence intensified intra-Kurdish rivalries, especially between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which is the KRG’s main ruling party, and the PKK. This rivalry reflects a clash of two visions for the border: the PKK’s revolutionary, transnational vision that seeks to eradicate or at least underplay the reality of the border; and the KDP’s pragmatic and territorial vision seeking to assert the border’s reality as a demarcation of the KRG’s authority and future statehood. In addition, the KDP is allied with Turkey, which has been fighting the PKK for several decades and is currently waging a military campaign against the group in northern Iraq and Syria. To a large extent, the future of this border is predicated on this geopolitical conflict and whether the PKK manages to entrench itself further or becomes isolated and marginalized as the KRG, the Autonomous Administration, and the Iraqi federal government assert their territorial authorities.
- Topic:
- Governance, Conflict, Borders, and Kurds
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
4. The Israel-Russia-Syria deal: Cost, beneficiaries and future deals
- Author:
- Micky Aharonson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- As Israel and Syria concluded a deal on the return of an Israeli woman from Syria, questions arise regarding the cost and what the future of such transactions with Russian mediation should be.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, Conflict, Peace, and Mediation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Syria
5. Time to Update Israeli Policy Toward Syria
- Author:
- Aiman Mansour
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel should (silently) support a more flexible US policy towards the Syrian regime and the Russian presence in Syria, including the easing of sanctions on Syria, in order to decrease Assad’s dependence on Iranian support and to heighten the conflicts of interest between Moscow and Tehran.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America
6. Can Russia live with an ongoing conflict in Syria? Mapping out Trends Among Russian Foreign Policy Elites
- Author:
- Andrey Baklanov and Leonid Isaev
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- September 30, 2020 marked five years since the start of the Russian Aerospace Forces operation in Syria. This was the first military operation Moscow launched far from its own borders since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Today Russia is not only militarily involved but is deeply invested in the conflict as it seeks to shape the course of the negotiation process and the post-conflict socio-political development of Syria. Russia’s grand strategy in Syria continues to evolve as it assesses its actions and goals in the light of current realities. In this paper we look at how the Russian academic community and diplomatic circles see the outlook of the Syrian negotiation process. We conducted in-depth interviews with representatives of these groups in order to understand their perspective on the Geneva process, the prospects of the Astana format, and the impacts on Russia of an ongoing conflict scenario in Syria.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria
7. Reconciliation Initiatives in Daraa: A Testimony for Histor
- Author:
- Haytham Manna
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The southern city of Daraa was the birthplace of the peaceful Syrian uprising that started in March 2012. This genuine Syrian movement was met with accusations of conspiracy and vandalism by the Government of Syria (GoS), whose aggressive responses provoked similar reactions from local population. The Houranian people (Daraa city residents), who are known for their peacefulness and sensitivity towards strangers, detested the militarization of the uprising, and they resisted the increasing presence of foreign armed elements (Hezbollah, Nusra Front, ISIS). The feeling of loss of their identity and space to outsiders was acute. The reconciliation with the GoS came about through negotiations with the Russians in mid-2018. Houran people took it as an opportunity to avoid a costly military confrontation with the GoS, restore peacefulness, and expel the foreign militias. This author was part of the negotiations and involved in deliberations at many junctures, and this testimony was prepared in consultation with the principal members of the reconciliation negotiations with the Russians and the GoS.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria
8. US-Russia interactions in Syria and the future of the conflict in 2021
- Author:
- Nikolay Surkov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The future for Syria in 2021 looks bleak from the Russian perspective. Though the conflict entered a low-intensity phase of armed confrontations that characterised 2020 will likely continue in 2021. The temporary negotiated solution for north-western Syria reached in March 2020 is likely to hold but there exists a high probability of renewed fighting between the SAA and various Islamist groups. There will also be bickering between Russia, Turkey, Syria, and Iran due to their different visions for Idlib’s future. Tensions will likely also continue to grow in northern and north-eastern Syria, where US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces sporadically clash with pro-Turkish groups. Occasional US-Russian encounters on the ground are also highly likely in the region. Additionally, confrontations between Israel and Iran/Hezbollah forces stationed in Syria will likely continue and might escalate.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America
9. The Political Economy of Syria’s Physical Fragmentation and Dependence
- Author:
- Samir Aita
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- It is difficult to imagine how the Syrian conflict could be resolved through a political process alone that does not directly involve the combating forces in Syria – namely the Syrian army and its associated militias linked to the power system in Damascus, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and their Democratic Union Party (PYD) power system, as well as the “opposition” factions and their respective backers, i.e. Iran and Russia, the USA and Turkey. Similarly, it is difficult to imagine such a solution without addressing the political economy that has emerged and that now underpins these forces’ power, the warlords’ chaos-inducing advantages gained from the country’s physical fragmentation, the hidden or open bargains between these warlords and other powers, and the deterioration of Syrians’ living conditions to unbearable levels. The current situation, where the country’s physical fragmentation has reached relative stability, could persist for a long time at the people’s expense. However, several factors could reignite the conflict: growing competition over resources and rent-seeking activities, even within each area of influence; the ongoing decline in much-needed international aid; and the further deterioration of the situation expected in Lebanon and its consequences for Syria.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Economy, Politics, Conflict, Peace, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
10. Iran in Syria: From Expansion to Entrenchment
- Author:
- Ido Yahel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Iranian involvement in the Syrian civil war has often made headlines in Israel. Particularly in the context of the Israel Defense Force (IDF)’s so-called campaign between the wars (the Hebrew acronym is Mabam), which has included attempts to prevent Iran from establishing military bases in Syria, keeping Iranian forces away from the Syrian-Israeli border, and thwarting the transfer of precision weapons to Hizballah. But Iranian involvement in Syria goes far beyond the confines of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. As a result of the "Arab Spring" uprising and the Syrian civil war, Iran has succeeded in establishing itself in areas far from the Israeli-Syrian border and extended its influence in Syria beyond the military sphere.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
11. The Impact of Covid-19 and Conflict on Middle Eastern Economies
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Iqtisadi: Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin assesses the economic damage caused by COVID-19 particularly in countries in the region experiencing the fallout of ongoing conflicts, and discusses several key trends that will continue to plague these hard-hit states. Ten years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, war, low oil prices and COVID-19 are affecting the economic situation of the Middle East. Conflicts continue in Syria, Libya and Yemen, while Iraq and Lebanon suffer from the breakdown of government authority. The region appears to be less affected by COVID-19 than others, but that may be because data on infections and deaths is incomplete.
- Topic:
- Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria
12. Operation Peace Spring: Objectives, Current Situation and its Future
- Author:
- Serhat Erkmen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The Peace Spring Operation (PSO), launched on 9 October 2019, was Turkey’s military/diplomatic/political offensive against the People's Defence Units (YPG) in Syria and beyond and was triggered by key dynamics in the country. The first was the redeployment of US troops in the northeast of Syria; second was the expansion of Russia’s area of influence towards the east of the Euphrates; third was the launch of a new phase of the Assad government’s operation in Idlib; forth was a re-evaluation of YPG’s patron-client relationship with the United States and the European Union. Turkey sought to prevent the formation of a Kurdish state and to address the Syrian refugee issue. While Turkey was able to achieve some strategic gains via the PSO, many challenges remain which prevent Ankara from achieving all its objectives. This paper argues that PSO should be analysed in the context of Turkey’s two former operations in Syria, Euphrates Shield Operation (ESO) and Olive Branch Operation (OBO).
- Topic:
- Military Intervention, Conflict, Syrian War, Transition, and YPG
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
13. The Transformation of the Iraqi-Syrian Border: From a National to a Regional Frontier
- Author:
- Harith Hasan and Kheder Khaddour
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Over the past nearly two decades, the presence of a variety of state and nonstate military and security forces has transformed the Syrian border district of Bukamal and the neighboring Iraqi district of Qa’im. Following the end of the self-proclaimed Islamic State’s caliphate, Iranian-backed militias began to play a major role in the area, turning it into a flashpoint between Iran and its allies on the one side and the United States and Israel on the other. The strain of tensions and the threat of instability are liable to ensure that this heavily securitized part of the border will remain a magnet for conflict for years to come.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Islamic State, Conflict, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Syria
14. How Southern Syria Has Been Transformed Into a Regional Powder Keg
- Author:
- Armenak Tokmajyan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In southern Syria, the regime, opposition, foreign powers, and local groups navigate a contentious zone of conflict. Any shift in this delicate balance could mean yet another escalation. Syria’s conflict has transformed the country’s southern border region into a zone of regional contention. The status quo there, largely forged and maintained by Russia since 2018, aims to prevent expanded control by the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Iranian and pro-Iranian military forces, which could trigger a regional confrontation. The south will remain a volatile area, probably for years, and its fate will be affected by regional politics, not the government’s will.
- Topic:
- Government, Conflict, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
15. Understanding Israel’s War in the ‘Grey Zone’
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel seeks to disrupt Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons, and to reverse the Iranian project to entrench its forces in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria
16. The Tensions between Assad and Iran Present an Opportunity in Syria
- Author:
- Eran Lerman, Aiman Mansour, and Micky Aharonson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel and the US may have an opportunity to incentivize Assad and Putin to cooperate in constraining Iran’s presence in Syria.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America
17. Rising Tensions and Security Chaos in Syria’s Deraa Province
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A four-way contest under way between the Assad regime, Russian interests, Iranian interests, and unreconciled former rebels.
- Topic:
- Security, Conflict, Regionalism, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Syria
18. Coronavirus has not changed the Middle East
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Conflicts persist, and the revisionist powers continue their disruptive behavior. This includes Iranian subversion and acceleration of its nuclear project, as well as Turkey’s expansionism in Syria.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
19. Israel’s strategy in Syria is less coherent than it seems
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- There is a discrepancy between the stated goal – the expulsion of Iran from Syria – and the means being employed by Israel to achieve it.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Stability, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria
20. Idlib, the next phase of the Turkish-Syrian conflict
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s desire to woo Turkey from the West likely to prevent all-out war.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
21. Iran, Hezbollah stir chaos in Syria’s southwest
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Behind Enemy Lines: Iran, Hezbollah and ongoing, armed resistance to Syria’s regime merge to create constant chaos.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
22. Do Syria-Turkey clashes presage a wider confrontation in the Middle East?
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Despite Syrian-Turkish clashes this week, Moscow is set to remain the key arbiter in Syria.
- Topic:
- Hegemony, Conflict, Peace, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
23. The Precarious Lull in Northeast Syria
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- New Year, Same Chaos in Syria.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, Ceasefire, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
24. Is the “New Normal” in Idlib Different from the “Old Normal”?: How the COVID-19 Pandemic has Affected Idlib
- Author:
- Serhat Erkman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Measures taken by the administration and the population against COVID-19 in Idlib have been insufficient. Although local health authorities were aware of dangers, they lacked the capacity to influence political and military decision-makers. Therefore, COVID-19 did not have a considerable impact on the daily life of the population and training of military groups. People still convened in open spaces and held closed meetings; markets were crowded and without adequate protection measures; mosques were crowded during the month of Ramadan and celebrations were performed as usual. As escalation and new political/social dynamics now dominate Idlib’s current agenda after the Moscow agreement, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a priority for the actors on the ground. This contribution aims to examine the activities of HTS in the context of the pandemicflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
25. The Impact of COVID-19 on the Military Dynamics in Northern Syria
- Author:
- Nikolay Surkov
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Measures taken by the administration and the population against COVID-19 in Idlib have been insufficient. Although local health authorities were aware of dangers, they lacked the capacity to influence political and military decision-makers. Therefore, COVID-19 did not have a considerable impact on the daily life of the population and training of military groups. People still convened in open spaces and held closed meetings; markets were crowded and without adequate protection measures; mosques were crowded during the month of Ramadan and celebrations were performed as usual. As escalation and new political/social dynamics now dominate Idlib’s current agenda after the Moscow agreement, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a priority for the actors on the ground. This contribution aims to examine the activities of HTS in the context of the pandemicflict.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
26. The Battle for the Tribes in Northeast Syria
- Author:
- Nicholas Heras
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Northeast Syria (NES) is fragmented under the control of different powers that are all seeking to gain the support of the local Arab tribes. Those seeking to upset the status quo include the Assad regime and its allies (Russia and Iran), Turkey and its Syrian rebel proxies, and ISIS —all seeking disruption with different motivations, yet working side by side. Those seeking to maintain the status quo include the U.S.-led Coalition, the Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria (AANES), and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Often, earning the support and alliance of the tribes is a transactional process whereby the tribes seek direct financial support and community investment, employment opportunities, military support, and autonomy to run their own affairs. Currently, most local tribal groups are calculating that a tenuous U.S.-protected order in northeast Syria provides better security and provisions than the alternatives from the Assad regime and its allies, or by Turkey and its Syrian rebel proxies. However, ISIS remains a threat to all the powers involved in northeast Syria, and it is the major spoiler seeking to create the conditions for a return to the old order which was established under ISIS’s territorial Caliphate from 2014-2019.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America
27. Syrian National Army: Russian View
- Author:
- Kirill Semenov
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- In autumn 2017, the Council of the Syrian Islamic Scholars devised an initiative to unite all groups of the Syrian moderate opposition into the Syrian National Army (SNA), which was supposed to become FSA 2.0. At that time, 80% of the Syrian opposition factions, including Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam, as well as the majority of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) armed groups were prepared to join the SNA. It was the first time since 2012 that the FSA had managed to bring all opposition forces under its banner, and the creation of a unified military network with a common structure and command gained a new impetus. However, the SNA project was five years too late and, by the time the rebels began to merge into this new unified army, the Syrian opposition had already lost the war.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Alliance, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
28. Russia and Issues of HTS and Tanzim Hurras ad-Din
- Author:
- Anton Mardasov
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Moderate Syrian opposition includes some natives from Russia’s North Caucasus, although they are a minority. Caucasian and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) natives were, in large part, members of the Islamic State (IS) or in some way linked to the forces formally led by Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN) and later by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Those who went to Syria and Iraq to fight can be roughly divided into two generations. The first one includes Caucasus Emirate members who responded to the call of Salafi sheikhs from Arab-Islamic centres. Natives of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kirghizia, and Turkmenistan (migrant workers, for the most part) were mainly recruited for jihad in Russia or within various diasporas across Europe.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Alliance, Conflict, and Opposition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria
29. Bridging Geneva and Astana: The Best Hope for Sustained De-escalation in Syria
- Author:
- Mona Yacoubian
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- As the conflict in Syria approaches its tenth anniversary, a holistic political settlement encompassing the entirety of the country is unlikely in the near to medium term. More than eight years of diplomatic initiatives have yielded only limited results. The two principal tracks – the Geneva and the Astana/Sochi processes – are running up against the complexity of the conflict and an emboldened Assad regime; neither process is sufficient on its own to generate momentum towards a lasting political settlement for the whole of Syria. However, creatively bridging these two processes could bring greater stability to those areas of Syria still beyond the Assad regime’s control, assuaging the suffering of some Syrians, and potentially serving as a building block for a longer-term settlement. Barring a major strategic shift in diplomacy, developments on the ground could render both diplomatic efforts obsolete. Instead, negotiation efforts should pivot to develop innovative approaches to bridge the Geneva and Astana processes. This bridging effort would focus on consolidating fragile ceasefires in Syria’s northwest and northeast regions, and anchoring some semblance of stability in these areas through improved humanitarian access and enhancing local governance structures.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Conflict, Peace, and Escalation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
30. Russia’s Increasing Stalemate in Southwest Syria
- Author:
- Alexey L. Khlebnikov
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The town and province of Daraa in southwest Syria is known for being a “cradle of the Syrian revolution”. Six years after the start of the Syrian uprising, it has been included in one of the four de-escalation zones that Russia established in Syria striking deals between different opposition armed groups and Damascus, with the consent of external actors. The southwest de-escalation zone is comprised of three provinces – Daraa, al-Suwaida, and al-Quneitra – whose proximity to Israel has been a crucial factor in Moscow’s strategy in the region. The southwest Syria de-escalation zone has several peculiarities that make it distinct from the other zones, in particular its geography, i.e. its proximity to Israel, which has defined Russia’s very special and nuanced approach to it. At the same time, the Russian approach to dealing with the armed opposition groups within the zone was similar to the groups in other de-escalation zones. So, what makes Russia’s approach different?
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria
31. Theories of Democratic Change Phase III: Transitions from Conflict
- Author:
- Jennifer R. Dresden, Thomas E. Flores, and Irfan Nooruddin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- The notion that robust democracy and violent conflict are linked is commonplace. Many observers of international politics attribute violent conflict in contexts as diverse as Myanmar and Syria to failures of democracy. Conversely, most agree that continuing political violence undermines any effort to build strong democratic institutions in Libya or South Sudan. As a matter of policy, democratization has often been promoted not only as an end in itself but as a means toward building peace in societies scarred by violence. Development professionals tackle these challenges daily, confronting vicious cycles of political violence and weak democratic institutions. At the same time, scholars have dedicated intense scrutiny to these questions, often finding that the interrelationships between conflict and democracy belie easy categorization. This report, the third in a series on democratic theories of change, critically engages with this literature to ask three questions: Under what circumstances do democratic practice or movement toward democracy quell (or exacerbate) the risk of different kinds of violent conflict? Under what circumstances do the risk and experience of violent conflict undermine democratic practice? How can external interventions mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities inherent in transitions to democracy and peace? To answer these questions, a research team at George Mason University and Georgetown University spent eight months compiling, organizing, and evaluating the academic literature connecting democratic practice and violent conflict, which spans the fields of political science, economics, peace studies, anthropology, sociology, and psychology. This work was funded by USAID’s Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (the DRG Center), under the Institute of International Education’s (IIE’s) Democracy Fellows and Grants Program. Beginning in May 2018, the authors organized a team of three research assistants, who read and summarized more than 600 journal articles, books, reports, and newspaper articles. The resulting White Paper was the subject of an August 2018 workshop with representatives from USAID and an interdisciplinary group of eight scholars with expertise in conflict and democracy. Based on their feedback, the authors developed a new Theories of Change Matrix and White Paper in October 2018. This draft received further written feedback from USAID and another three scholars. The core team then revised the report again to produce this final draft. This report’s approach to the literature differs from past phases of the Theories of Democratic Change project. While past reports detailed the hypothesized causes of democratic backsliding (Phase I) and democratic transitions (Phase II), this report focuses on the reciprocal relationship between democratic practice and conflict. The report therefore organizes hypotheses into two questions and then sub-categories within each question.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Education, Democracy, Conflict, Political Science, and USAID
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Syria, North America, Myanmar, South Sudan, Global Focus, and United States of America
32. Russian and Iranian Economic Interests In Syria (Pre-2010 and intra-war period)
- Author:
- Hamidreza Azizi and Leonid Issaev
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Discussion paper for the workshop on: “The Politics and Modalities of Reconstruction in Syria”, Geneva, Switzerland, 7-8 February 2019. There has historically been low levels of trade and investment from both Russia and Iran with Syria, with trade in military items being a notable exception. While the trade relationship between Syria and its two main allies predates the conflict, levels of trade had been remarkably low before the crisis, in contrast to mainstream perceptions. Yet, these figures cannot be confirmed due to unavailability of a comprehensive record of the Syrian bilateral relationship with Iran and Russia. Internationally imposed sanctions have discouraged Russian and Iranian companies from doing business with Syria. Lacking any other resources, the only way that Syrian could repay debts to its allies would be to grant exclusive access to energy and natural resources. This however would reduce the public revenue needed to rebuild state institutions, and also encourage foreign rivalry over economic opportunities. As Syria lacks any coordination mechanism for post-war economic reconstruction, Russia and Iran have set their eyes on the energy sector, where Russia has the upper hand. Yet, cooperation is also possible in other sectors, such as Syria’s rail sector. In order to understand the Russian and Iranian economic relationship with Syria, two factors should be considered. First is the informal relationship between Syria and its two allies, which has taken the form of unofficial agreements and trade. These would be important when sanctions are lifted. The second factor is military exports to Syria, expected to be large, given the scale of war and Syrian reliance on Russia and Iran. Due to lack of official data, this paper will not consider both issues.
- Topic:
- Economics, Sanctions, Conflict, Syrian War, Investment, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Middle East, and Syria
33. Waiting for no one: prospects and consequences of bottom-up reconstruction in Syria
- Author:
- Fabrice Balanche
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Discussion paper for the workshop on: “The Politics and Modalities of Reconstruction in Syria”, Geneva, Switzerland, 7-8 February 2019. The war in Syria has not ended, yet uncoordinated bottom-up reconstruction efforts have already taken place in many areas where the bombing and violence have stopped. The government is prioritising restoring electricity, as it is inexpensive, but water, education, and health are harder to restore cheaply and quickly. The resumption of public services, and investment in regime areas depends on loyalty, reminiscent of pre-war sectarian politics. The extent of politicisation of the reconstruction efforts led by the Syrian government is reduced because of limited funds, and government disconnection from local levels. Bottom-up efforts to reconstruction are limited to individuals rebuilding their houses using remittances, or low-level housing projects. Lack of large funding for infrastructure, industry and health will slow growth, reinforce fragmentation of industry and reproduce the root causes of the conflict.
- Topic:
- Government, Infrastructure, Reconstruction, Conflict, Syrian War, and Services
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
34. Turkey and China Tie Themselves in Knots Over Syria and Xinjiang
- Author:
- James M Dorsey
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- Turkey expects Chinese support for its incursion into Syria against the Kurds, but in return, China expects Turkey to turn a blind eye to its persecution of Turkic Muslims in Xinjiang. Turkey’s refusal to fully recognize Kurdish rights is thus intertwined with China’s brutal crackdown in its troubled northwestern province. Both parties justify their actions as efforts in the fight against terrorism.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, Ethnic Cleansing, Conflict, Syrian War, and Kurds
- Political Geography:
- China, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Syria, and Xinjiang
35. ‘Peace’ in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yemen
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- In fairness, peace almost always consists of a pause in the fighting that becomes a prelude to war. Taking modern Europe as an example, the Napoleonic wars were punctuated by failed peace attempts, and then led to the rise of Germany and a whole new series of wars with Austria, Denmark, and France. The repressive peace settlements following Europe’s upheavals in 1848 set the stage for decades of new rounds of conflict and revolution. World War I led to World War II, and then led to the Cold War and now to the Ukraine. Nevertheless, the current U.S. efforts to support peace negotiations in Afghanistan and the Middle East seem remarkably weak even by historical standards. In the case of Afghanistan, “peace” is being negotiated without even the same cosmetic level of local government participation that occurred in Vietnam. It is being negotiated when there is no political stability to build upon, and no apparent prospect that the coming election can bring real unity or effective leadership.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Gulf Nations
36. The Return of ISIS in Iraq, Syria, and the Middle East
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The U.S., its European allies, and its Strategic Partners in the Middle East achieved a significant victory in breaking up the ISIS protostate – or “caliphate” – in Syria and Iraq. This break up has sharply reduced the fighting against ISIS in Iraq, and in Eastern Syria. The U.S.-led Coalition did not, however, fully defeat ISIS in either Iraq or Syria or eliminate ISIS and other forms of extremism as serious threats. It did not bring lasting stability to Iraq or end the Syrian civil war, and it did not eliminate the threat from ISIS and other extremist groups in the rest of the MENA area. This analysis covers two important aspects of the crisis in Iraq and Syria since the break of the “caliphate.” First, it summarizes key official reporting on the resurgence of ISIS as a serious threat in both Syria and Iraq. Second, it puts ISIS in perspective – showing that it did not dominate the violence and levels of terrorism in Syria even at its peak, and noting that ISIS is only one of the major threats to stability in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, ISIS, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
37. Syria’s Civil War Is Now 3 Civil Wars
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The fight to depose Assad is over. The battle over his regime’s boundaries has no end in sight.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Islamic State, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
38. Iran’s Struggle to Entrench Itself in Syria
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel, Russia and to some extent the US stand in the way of Iran’s permanent entrenchment in Syria. Israel needs to continue its strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah infrastructures across Syria.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria
39. Turkey Sets Course against the West in the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Turkish forces are also present in northern Iraq, where they are engaged in action against the PKK presence in the Kurdish-controlled north.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Kurdistan
40. The Turkish Invasion of Northeast Syria
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- While a determined Western-led effort to halt the Turkish invasion could still prevent Russian, Iranian and IS gains, time is growing short.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Islamic State, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America
41. Beyond the Chorus of Indignation
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Trump’s Syria decision accords with previous presidential decisions and is not necessarily a disaster for Israel.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Leadership, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America
42. No Reason for Kurdish Surprise
- Author:
- Lazar Berman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Once again, Kurds are complaining of “betrayal.”
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Syria, Kurdistan, and United States of America
43. Rojava Sundown – A Retrospective
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Islamic State, that most malignant expression of the Sunni Islamist trend, was the natural enemy of this emergent Kurdish autonomy.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Minorities, Islamic State, Conflict, and Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and Kurdistan
44. Northern Syria and Israel
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel must adapt as quickly as possible to the evolving situation in northern Syria, while continuing to adhere to self-reliance and invest in its military.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria
45. Israel, Europe and Russia: A New Paradigm?
- Author:
- Emmanuel Navon
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel is expected by its European interlocutors to condemn Putin over his misdeeds, yet Israel wants to avoid frictions with Russia in order to maintain a free hand to operate against Iranian targets in Syria.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, Foreign Interference, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria
46. Access for What? Elevating Civilian Protection and Quality Access for Humanitarian Action in Syria
- Author:
- Melissa Dalton and Hijab Shah
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Syrian conflict has produced humanitarian consequences of harrowing and tragic proportions. With an estimated 500,000 Syrians killed, the war has prompted the world’s greatest refugee flow since World War II.1 There are 6.2 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) within Syria and 5.3 million refugees in neighboring countries (a total 13 million people affected—for context, the total population estimate for pre-war Syria was 20 million). From January to December 2018, there were an estimated 1.6 million population movements.2 Civilian protection is the most important focus for international humanitarian efforts given the complexity of the Syrian conflict, myriad state and non-state armed actors involved, and continuing incentives for parties to the conflict to use humanitarian access as a political tool.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, and Civilians
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
47. The Battle for Northwestern Syria: Better Sooner than Later
- Author:
- Aiman Mansour
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- It is in Israel’s interest that Assad regain control of northwestern Syria. Aside from improving the economic situation in Syria, this may increase Israeli leverage in the campaign against Iran’s military entrenchment.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Syria
48. The Fighting Continues in Northern Syria
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Kurds vow to defend themselves—alone if necessary—against Syria, Turkey and Russia.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
49. Through a Different Lens: The Mideast as Seen from Doha
- Author:
- Micky Aharonson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- At a recent conference on the Mideast economy in Doha, which included the participation of Israeli scholars, discussions highlighted changes in the regional balance of power. Acceptance of Assad’s rule in Syria is growing, but so are questions about how Syria’s rehabilitation will be financed. And some Iranians are signaling that Tehran is willing to make political compromises to alleviate economic pressures.
- Topic:
- Economics, Leadership, Political stability, Conflict, and Academia
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
50. Russia-Israel Relations: Expectations and Reality
- Author:
- Micky Aharonson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Syria remains the main point of contention between the two countries.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Syria