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  • Author: Allen Collinsworth, Robert Orttung, Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: At approximately 12.30 p.m. EST today, the Duma rejected Chernomyrdin's nomination as Prime Minister by an open ballot vote of 251-94 (with 105 abstaining). 226 votes are needed to confirm him. Chernomyrdin's own Our Home Is Russia party provided most of his support (64 votes). Zhirinovsky's party, the Liberal Democrats, abstained (49 votes). Analysts underscored the weakness of support for Chernomyrdin by noting that, in the first round of voting on the nomination of Prime Minister Kiriyenko five months ago, Kiriyenko polled 143 votes in favor. This was in secret balloting, however, which to some extent invalidates the comparison.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: The latest private reports from Moscow indicate that the Duma is very likely to reject Viktor Chernomyrdin's candidacy for Prime minister next week. Tomorrow, Aug. 28 th , at 3:00 pm, the Duma and the Federation Council will meet to decide whether to recommend a vote on Chernomyrdin's candidacy. Whereas Chernomyrdin's chances are bleak, the fluid nature of current Russian political situation makes it impossible to firmly rule out his confirmation as prime minister, a post which he very much wants.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Since our Aug. 20th report, the situation in Russia has developed dramatically. On Friday (Aug. 21st), the lower house of the Russian parliament (the Duma) overwhelmingly called for Yeltsin's resignation and changes in the government and the leadership of the central bank. The Duma also passed a non-binding resolution demanding nationalization of some banks and restriction of foreign participation in domestic capital markets. In response, the RTS index of leading Russian shares fell 5.56% to 81.76 on negligible trading volume of $4.2 million. Central bank head Dubinin announced plans to activate Russia's precious metals reserves (approximately $5 billion of $15.1 billion total foreign exchange reserves) to support the ruble. On Sunday, Aug. 23rd, in an action anticipated in our Aug. 17th report, Yeltsin dismissed Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and installed in his place Viktor Chernomyrdin.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Russian capital markets were already in what George Soros described as a “financial meltdown in . . . its terminal phase” on August 12th. Since then, capital markets have deteriorated significantly in reaction to measures announced by the Russian Government on Monday, Aug. 17th (summarized in Section II below). IEWS is actively evaluating the nature and extent of the crisis and trying to project its likely course.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Alexander A. Sergounin
  • Publication Date: 07-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The end of the Cold War, the collapse of the USSR and its Marxist ideology, and the re-emergence of the Russian Federation as a separate, independent entity have compelled Russia to redefine its national interests and make major adjustments in the spheres of both foreign policy and international relations theory (IRT). These enormous tasks, together with an attendant polarisation of opinion on how to deal with them, have pitted Russia's policy makers and experts against one another in a fierce battle of world views. This debate is far from at an end. Neither a new security identity nor a coherent foreign policy strategy have yet been found.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Environment, Government, Politics, Religion
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: John W. Slocum
  • Publication Date: 07-1995
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Cornell University Peace Studies Program
  • Abstract: Practitioners of the late lamented science of Sovietology have been roundly criticized for failing to predict one of the most momentous events of the twentieth century—the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Anxious to avoid a repetition of past mistakes, post-Sovietologists have in turn devoted a good deal of attention to the question of whether the USSR's largest successor state, the Russian Federation, is itself in danger of breaking apart. Like the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation is a multinational state with ethnically-defined territorial subunits; political elites in these subunits, faced with massive political, economic and social uncertainty, may be attracted by the idea of political independence. During the first half of the 1990s, post-Soviet Russia has indeed experienced more than one crisis of center-periphery relations. The present study, however, suggests that the likelihood of a general disintegration of the Russian Federation peaked in the early 1990s and is now decreasing. In view of this analysis, the war in Chechnya is an exception to an overall trend toward consolidation, rather than an indicator of a general breakdown in center-periphery relations.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government, Nationalism
  • Political Geography: Russia, Soviet Union, Chechnya