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1201. Iraqi Stability and the “ISIS War”

Author:
Anthony H Cordesman
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The events in Iraq over the last month have shown that any success in Iraq requires both the Iraqi government and the United States to go far beyond the war against ISIS, and makes any partisan debate over who lost Iraq as damaging to U.S. national interests as any other aspect of America’s drift toward partisan extremism. The war against ISIS is a critical U.S. national security interest. It not only threatens to create a major center of terrorism and extremism in a critical part of the Middle East, and one that could spread to threaten the flow of energy exports and the global economy, but could become a major center of international terrorism. It is important to understand, however, that ISIS is only one cause of instability in the region, and only one of the threats caused by spreading sectarian and ethnic violence.
Topic:
Terrorism and International Security
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

1202. The Iran Nuclear Deal: A Definitive Guide

Author:
Gary Samore
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This report has been produced in the interest of contributing to informed Congressional review and public discourse on a comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran—the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It provides a concise description of the agreement and the accompanying UN Security Council Resolution 2231. It also includes a balanced assessment of the agreement's strengths and weaknesses with respect to its central objective to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The team of experts who prepared the report includes Democrats, Republications, independents, and internationals. Noting areas of disagreement among themselves, they agreed that this report provides an accurate description and balanced assessment of the agreement.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

1203. Jordan’s Refugee Crisis

Author:
Alexandra Francis
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Syrian refugee crisis has exacerbated endemic political, economic, and resource challenges in Jordan. As the conflict in Syria enters a protracted state and public discontent and other tensions rise, Jordan has limited its humanitarian response. Yet, the roots of the kingdom’s challenges run deeper than the refugee crisis and if left unaddressed will be harbingers of instability. If Jordan is to confront its national challenges and continue to provide a safe haven for Syrian refugees, the country will depend on increased international support.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Political Economy, War, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Jordan

1204. Hard Aid: Foreign Aid in the Pursuit of Short-term Security and Political Goals

Author:
Nathaniel Myers
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Facing serious crises in the Middle East and beyond, Washington is again turning to foreign aid to help advance urgent short-term security and political priorities. This so-called hard aid entails goals and challenges that are distinct from traditional development and humanitarian aid programs, but Washington is relying on existing aid systems and structures to pursue such work in crisis countries like Syria and Yemen. While this ad hoc approach is administratively and politically convenient, it reduces strategic effectiveness and undercuts long-term development efforts. Both legislative and executive action should be taken to redress these failings.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Syria

1205. Kurdistan’s Politicized Society Confronts a Sultanistic System

Author:
Kawa Hassan
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Kurdistan region of Iraq enjoys more stability, economic development, and political pluralism than the rest of the country. And public opinion under the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) demands rule-of-law-based governance. But power is concentrated in the hands of the ruling parties and families, who perpetuate a nondemocratic, sultanistic system. These dynamics could foster instability in Kurdistan and its neighborhood, but could also provide a rare window of opportunity for democratization.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Political Economy, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

1206. Migration and Refugee Governance in the Mediterranean: Europe and International Organisations at a Crossroads

Author:
Sarah Wolff
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The death of Aylan, a 3-year-old boy on a Turkish beach, prompted European leaders and public opinions to acknowledge that Europe is the deadliest migration destination in the world. In spite of this disturbing truth, there is little agreement on an EU solution to the Syrian refugee crisis. In September 2015, the EU Interior Ministers struggled to agree over the relocation of 120,000 refugees through a common compulsory mechanism, as Eastern European countries oppose the idea of “sharing the burden.” Progress regarding other solutions such as a European rescue at-sea-mission, the delivery of humanitarian visas or the opening of legal means of migration have also met strong member state resistance. If Europe is not up to the task, can international organisations (IOs), often critical of European states for their inaction, impulse change? What influence do IOs have on EU and Mediterranean migration and refugee policies? This paper investigates how IOs have been trying to frame an alternative debate and the challenges they meet in promoting transregional governance.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Migration, War, Immigration, and Border Control
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-66-8
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

1207. From 9/11 to Da'esh: What Role for the High Representative and the External Dimension of EU Counter-Terrorism Policies?

Author:
Maria Giulia Amadio Viceré
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Under certain conditions, such as security crises, an integrated external EU counter-terrorism policy can emerge without leading to the supra-nationalisation of policy-making. This paper analyses the role of the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy with the objective of assessing the influence that such figure can have on the governance of EU counter-terrorism policies. It does so by assessing the EU’s response to three security crises, namely: the 9/11 attacks and the subsequent bombings in Madrid (2004) and London (2005); the Arab Spring and the following destabilisation of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); and the emergence and spread of Da’esh.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Counterinsurgency, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-53-8
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

1208. Middle East Realities and Western Responses

Author:
Michael Bell
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
The 2011 popular uprisings in the Arab world brought much hope that democratic change was dawning. Five years later authoritarianism, exclusive ethno-nationalism and extreme ideologies dominate the region. Fair-minded normalcy in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and tribal Libya, and in the region as a whole, is beyond reach in any foreseeable future because democratic transformation requires profound behavioural changes by the protagonists. The question then is whether there is anything that Western countries can do on a human scale to alleviate the suffering generated by this tragic situation. A realistic and pragmatic approach, governed by our capabilities, is a sine qua non. If we content ourselves with limited goals, as with supporting states at risk and refugee relief, we may just salvage something. Disempowering cult behaviour is beyond the art of the possible.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Ethnicity, Arab Spring, Military Intervention, Ideology, and Liberalism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

1209. Post-Colonial States and the Struggle for Identity in the Middle East since World War Two

Author:
Samuel Helfont
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
The term “post-colonial” has presented a seminal problem for historians of the 20th century Middle East. As this essay will detail, debates over the term have provided an important axis around which discussions of political identity revolve. Following World War Two European power in the Middle East crumbled and a number of post-colonial states emerged. These states often justified their existence in terms of ideologies that were tied to specific post-colonial, political identities. Endless debates have occurred over how much emphasis to put on the post-colonial nature of these states and their political identities. In this essay, I will discuss whether a state’s status as post-colonial matters. If so, how? And what are the consequences? Following a general discussion of debates over post-colonialism, will look more closely at three case studies: Egypt, Iraq, and Iran.
Topic:
Development, Islam, Nationalism, and Post Colonialism
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1210. Toward a European Migration and Mobility Union

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
After surviving its worst economic downturn since the Great Depression and the near collapse of its common currency, Europe is now engulfed by hundreds of thousands of desperate migrants and refugees from the Middle East and Africa. It needs new and permanent migration institutions and resources not only to accommodate the influx of refugees but also to set up a new border control system throughout the region. These demands pose a challenge for European policymaking as serious as the euro crisis of the last five years. Kirkegaard proposes a migration and mobility union, to be implemented gradually, with the goal of comprehensively reforming European migration policy.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, Migration, Governance, and Refugees
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Middle East

1211. Iran’s Economic Reintegration: Sanctions Relief, Energy, and Economic Growth Under a Nuclear Agreement with Iran

Author:
Elizabeth Rosenberg and Sara Vakhshouri
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
The international community is poised to sign a deal with Iran on its nuclear program, under which Iran would make concessions on its enrichment activities and the United States and others would offer substantial relief from punishing economic sanctions. The removal of the most complex, extensive, and multilateral regime of coercive economic measures promises a windfall to Iran. However, this will be neither immediate nor easy, given the difficulty of reestablishing severed commercial and legal ties between Iran and the global financial system. Removing sanctions will require careful international cooperation and substantial outreach to the private sector.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Treaties and Agreements, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

1212. Strategic Insights: Will the Russians Escalate in Syria?

Author:
Dr. W. Andrew Terill
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
In an unexpected effort to protect a key Middle Eastern ally, the Kremlin intervened in Syria with military forces in late September 2015. This effort was undertaken to protect the Bashar Assad regime from Islamist and secular rebels now threatening his regime. Moscow initiated this action with a limited force that may be primarily designed to prevent Assad’s ouster but does not have the capabilities to help him retake large tracks of the country from the rebel groups that are now holding them. The Russian leadership made the decision to use military units in Syria at some political cost, aware that it was poisoning relations with many conservative anti-Assad Arabs and complicating its troubled relationship with Western powers.1 At some point, the Russians will have to consider the questions of how well these efforts have met their goal of bolstering the regime and what will be their next moves. They may also be rapidly faced with pressure to escalate their commitment to support the regime, if current actions do not produce meaningful results. They may also learn the painful lesson of other great powers, that military intervention in the Middle East is often much more problematic than national leaders initially expect.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil War, Islam, Politics, War, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia, Middle East, and Syria

1213. Keeping EU-Asia Reengagement on Track

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The relationship between the European Union (EU) and Asia is in flux. The EU intensified its economic ties to Asia and boosted its security cooperation in the region in 2011 and 2012. But new challenges, including the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East, have made it difficult to sustain this incipient momentum. There are a number of steps that EU and Asian governments can and should take to continue to strengthen their relations.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Asia

1214. Soccer: Moulding the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
James M Dorsey
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Nowhere in the world has sports in general and soccer in particular played such a key role in the development of a region than in the Middle East and North Africa. Yet, the nexus of sports, politics and society is one area that Middle East studies with few exceptions have ignored. Similarly, sports studies have focused on all parts of the world with one exception: the Middle East and North Africa. Nonetheless, sports and particularly soccer has been in various parts of the Middle East key to nation formation, nation building, regime formation, regime survival and the struggles for human, gender and labour rights. This working paper is an attempt to fill a gap in the literature and contribute to the development of theory on the role of sports in the Middle East and North Africa.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Nationalism, Labor Issues, Sports, and State Building
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

1215. Soccer vs. Jihad: A Draw

Author:
James M Dorsey
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
There is much that militant Islamists and jihadists agree on, but when it comes to sports in general and soccer in particular sharp divisions emerge. Men like the late Osama bin Laden, Hamas Gaza leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah stand on one side of the ideological and theological divide opposite groups like the Taliban, Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, Boko Haram, and the jihadists who took control of northern Mali in 2012. The Islamic State, the jihadist group that controls swaths of Syria and Iraq, belongs ideologically and theologically to the camp that views soccer as an infidel invention designed to distract the faithful from their religious obligations but opportunistically employs football in its sophisticated public relations and public diplomacy endeavour. Bin Laden, Haniyeh and Nasrallah employ soccer as a recruitment and bonding tool based on the belief of Salafi and mainstream Islamic scholars who argue that Prophet Muhammad advocated physical exercise to maintain a healthy body. However, the more militant students of Islam seek to re- write the rules of the game to Islamicise it, if not outright ban the sport. The practicality and usefulness of soccer is evident in the fact that perpetrators of attacks, like those by Hamas on civilian targets in Israel in 2003 and the 2004 Madrid train bombings, bonded by playing soccer together.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Sports, Islamic State, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

1216. To Shoot or not to Shoot? Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern Militaries Respond Differently

Author:
James M Dorsey and Teresita Cruz-del Rosario
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
An analysis of the Middle Eastern and North African militaries has produced a laundry list of literature, much of which was either valid for a specific post-World War II period or highlighted one of more aspects of military interest in the status quo or attitudes towards political change. Leaving aside the geopolitical differences between Southeast Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, a comparison of the transition in both regions brings into focus the building blocks that are needed for an armed force to embrace change. Southeast Asian nations succeeded whereas the countries in Middle East and North Africa, with the exception of Tunisia, have failed for several reasons.
Topic:
Politics, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Asia, North Africa, and Southeast Asia

1217. Pyramid Capitalism: Cronyism, Regulation, and Firm Productivity in Egypt

Author:
Ishac Diwan, Philip Keefer, and Marc Schiffbauer
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Using an original database of 469 politically connected firms under the Mubarak regime in Egypt, we explore the economic effects of cronyism. Previous research has shown that cronyism is lucrative. We address numerous questions raised by this research. First, do crony firms receive favorable regulatory treatment? We find that they do: connected firms are more likely to benefit from trade protection, energy subsidies, access to land, and regulatory enforcement. Second, does regulatory capture account for the high value of connected firms? In our sample, connected firms exhibit superior corporate performance relative to unconnected firms and this is systematically related to regulatory capture. Energy subsidies and trade protection, for example, account for the higher profits of politically connected firms. Third, do crony firms hurt growth? We exploit a natural experiment setting to show that the entry of politically connected firms into previously unconnected sectors slows employment growth and skews the distribution of employment towards less productive smaller firms.
Topic:
Economics, Economy, Business, Networks, and Cronyism
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

1218. Development Challenges and Tools in Conflict Environments

Author:
Todd Diamond
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
For at least a generation, conflict resolution has been predominantly the domain of international development practitioners seeking to use their skills and tools to avert war and reduce the suffering of civilian populations. More recently, the U.S. military added similar exercises to its planning efforts, primarily for the strategic purpose of reducing its own potential future deployments around the world. Working occasionally in parallel and at other times seemingly at cross-purposes, the military, donors and non-governmental organizations have begrudgingly come to accept that in any given crisis each can play a role. The nature and extent of each actor’s role depends on the circumstances and the severity of the situation. As the military concludes the longest war in U.S. history in Afghanistan, and as pressure mounts to intervene in additional conflicts in the Middle East, it is worth examining what role development can play in reducing that pressure, who should be responsible for providing that assistance, and what form it should take. In most cases, whether in a pre-conflict environment, an active conflict, or a post-conflict phase, development agencies and their partners are well placed to provide warnings and respond to civilian crises, though not without coordinating and collaborating in certain instances with their military counterparts...
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Military Affairs, Conflict, and NGOs
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, and United States of America

1219. Iranian Public Opinion on the Nuclear Negotiations

Author:
Nancy Gallagher, Clay Ramsay, and Ebrahim Mohseni
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
View the survey questionnaire and trend tables.This survey is one in a series of surveys related to Iran that CISSM has conducted since 2013. View the complete list of surveys. Summary of Findings 1. Iran’s Nuclear Program Overwhelming majorities of Iranians continue to say that it is very important for Iran to have a nuclear program. The nuclear program is seen as one of Iran’s greatest achievements. A large majority continues to see the program as driven purely by peaceful goals, though one in five see it as being an effort to pursue nuclear weapons. This support for Iran’s nuclear program appears to be driven by a combination of symbolic and economic considerations. However, while a majority sees the program as being an important way for Iran to stand up to the West, serving Iran’s future energy and medical needs is seen as more important. 2. Views on Nuclear Weapons A large and growing majority of Iranians express opposition to nuclear weapons in various ways. Two thirds now say that producing nuclear weapons is contrary to Islam. Eight in ten approve of the NPT goal of eliminating nuclear weapons and establishing a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East. Consistent with these views, Iranians express opposition to chemical weapons, with nine in ten approving of Iran’s decision, during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, to not use chemical weapons in response to Iraq’s use of them. 3. Iran - P5+1 Nuclear Deal Given information about the nuclear deal being negotiated between Iran and the P5+1, a substantial majority favors it and only one in six oppose it. A quarter, though, are undecided or equivocal. Nearly three in four are optimistic that Iran and the P5+1 will arrive at a deal in regard to Iran’s nuclear program. Three in four think the Majlis (Iran’s Parliament) should have a say on a nuclear deal. 4. The Potential Removal of Sanctions The support for Iran pursuing a deal with the P5+1 appears to rest to some extent on the assumption—held by a large majority—that all sanctions on Iran would be lifted as part of the deal, and there is optimism that the sanctions would in fact be lifted. Approximately half of respondents say Iran should not agree to a deal unless the U.S. lifts all of its sanctions, while nearly as many say Iran should be ready to make a deal even if the U.S. retains some sanctions, provided all UN and EU sanctions are lifted. Among those who believe that all U.S. sanctions would be lifted, support for a deal is nearly two thirds, while among those who assume that the U.S. will retain some sanctions, support is a bare majority. The removal of UN sanctions is seen as more important than the removal of U.S. sanctions. 5. Expectations About Positive Effects of a Deal Iranians express high expectations that a nuclear deal would result in significant positive effects in the near term. Majorities say they would expect to see, within a year, better access to foreign medicines and medical equipment, significantly more foreign investment, and tangible improvement in living standards. 6. The Sanctions and Iran’s Economy The sanctions on Iran are overwhelmingly perceived as having a negative impact on the country’s economy and on the lives of ordinary people. However, views of the economy are fairly sanguine and have been improving. Also, the impact of the sanctions is seen as limited and a lesser factor affecting the economy as compared to domestic mismanagement and corruption. 7. Views of Rouhani As Iran’s parliamentary elections near, Iran’s President Rouhani is clearly one of the strongest political figures in Iran. Half would prefer to see Rouhani supporters win in the February 2016 parliamentary elections, while one quarter favors his critics. However, Rouhani supporters have high expectations that a deal removing all U.S. sanctions and bringing rapid economic change is going to take place. If a deal is reached that does not meet these expectations, Rouhani could be left politically vulnerable. In a hypothetical presidential match-up, Rouhani currently does better than former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad by two to one. Large majorities say Rouhani has been at least somewhat successful in improving the economic situation, improving Iran’s relations with European countries, and reducing sanctions. Three in four Iranians say that if the negotiations were to fail to produce a final agreement, they would only or mostly blame the P5+1 countries. 8. Relations with the U.S. Views of the United States, especially the U.S. government, continue to be quite negative. Only four in ten believe that U.S. leaders genuinely believe that Iran is trying to acquire nuclear weapons. Asked why the U.S. is imposing sanctions on Iran, the most common answers portray the U.S. as seeking to confront and dominate Iran; very few mention concerns about nuclear weapons. However, a slight majority has a positive view of the American people. If Iran and the P5+1 reach a deal, a large majority believes that the U.S. will still impede other countries from cooperating with Iran, and a slight majority believes that Iran making concessions on the nuclear issue will likely lead the U.S. to seek more concessions. Just one in six believe that concessions would be likely to lead to greater accommodation; however, this number is higher than a year ago. Large majorities favor various confidence-building measures between Iran and the U.S., including greater trade, which is more widely supported than a year ago. People-to-people confidence-building measures are especially popular. A majority thinks that it is possible for Islam and the West to find common ground. 9. Views of P5+1 Countries Two thirds say they do not trust the P5+1 countries—however, the minority expressing trust has increased since fall 2014. Views of specific countries vary: large majorities have negative views of the UK and the U.S.; modest majorities have unfavorable views of Russia and France, while views are divided on Germany and China. 10. Views of Regional Actors A very large majority has an unfavorable view of Saudi Arabia—even slightly more negative than views of the U.S. A slight majority now has an unfavorable view of Turkey, which was not the case a year ago. Large majorities continue to view Syria and Iraq favorably.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Regional Cooperation, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

1220. How to Bring Stability to Bahrain

Author:
Brian Dooley
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
Washington needs a new strategy to help bring stability and reform to Bahrain. Although the smallest country in the Middle East, Bahrain exemplifies several of the major challenges for U.S. policy in the region: Sectarian tensions exploited by ISIS and other Sunni extremists and by Shi’adominated Iran to fuel conflict Economic troubles linked to public corruption and an over-reliance on oil revenues, exacerbated by sharply falling oil prices Stalled political reform leaving the root grievances of large scale public protests unresolved De facto U.S. support for an authoritarian status quo through a government that fails to deliver good governance and continues to deny basic rights and freedoms to its people, while courting support from Russia and other U.S. rivals Falling public support for the United States Major military assets, in Bahrain’s case the basing of the U.S. Fifth Naval Fleet, threatened by protracted instability
Topic:
Imperialism, Oil, Religion, Military Strategy, Authoritarianism, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Bahrain

1221. How to Build a More Sustainable and Mutually Beneficial Relationship with Saudi Arabia

Author:
Human Rights First
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
The United States is not taking Saudi Arabia’s outsized responsibility for human rights abuses within or beyond the kingdom’s borders seriously enough. President Barack Obama did not raise the issue in his meeting last year with the late King Abdullah. On his way to meet the new Saudi monarch, King Salman, in January 2015 the President remarked, “Sometimes we have to balance our need to speak to them about human rights issues with immediate concerns that we have in terms of countering terrorism or dealing with regional stability." He did not mention that Saudi Arabia’s policies (denying rights and freedoms at home while leading a vigorous, region-wide effort to push back against popular calls for better governance) have themselves contributed to regional instability and undermined counterterrorism efforts. Such policies harm U.S. interests and those of the people of Saudi Arabia and the region as a whole.
Topic:
Human Rights, Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, and Repression
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

1222. How to Counter Terrorism by Supporting Civil Society in the United Arab Emirates

Author:
Brian Dooley
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
President Obama recently made a series of commendable declarations supporting civil society and affirming its importance to securing stability and fighting extremism. At the White House’s Summit on Countering Violent Extremism in February 2015 he announced, “When people are oppressed, and human rights are denied—particularly along sectarian lines or ethnic lines—when dissent is silenced, it feeds violent extremism. It creates an environment that is ripe for terrorists to exploit. When peaceful, democratic change is impossible, it feeds into the terrorist propaganda that violence is the only answer available.” The President added, “[W]e must recognize that lasting stability and real security require democracy. That means free elections where people can choose their own future, and independent judiciaries that uphold the rule of law, and police and security forces that respect human rights, and free speech and freedom for civil society groups.” That same month he said, “My argument to any partner that we have is that you are better off if you've got a strong civil society and you've got democratic legitimacy and you are respectful of human rights.” In April 2015, speaking specifically about the six U.S. allies that comprise the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—he noted, “The biggest threats that they face may not be coming from Iran invading,” and warned of “populations that, in some cases, are alienated, youth that are underemployed, an ideology that is destructive and nihilistic, and in some cases, just a belief that there are no legitimate political outlets for grievances.” A lack of peaceful outlets for political grievances does indeed drive extremism and instability, but the Obama Administration continues to provide seemingly unconditional political and military support for GCC countries that have actually increased their repression against civil society in recent years. This contradiction at the heart of U.S. policy must be confronted and resolved, especially because it has a direct bearing on counterterrorism cooperation and U.S. national security interests. The president promised to have a “tough conversation” with the GCC leaders about their destructive policies. The \ White House and Camp David meetings with GCC leaders on May 13-14, 2015 provides the perfect opportunity to develop that conversation. Human Rights First produced blueprints in 2015 for how the United States can support civil society in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia to encourage reform and respect for human rights—advances that would help bring stability to a volatile region and align with the administration’s stated policy goals. This report extends that series to an analysis of the repression of another U.S. security partner in the Gulf: the United Arab Emirates. It examines the UAE’s relations with the United States and what Washington can do to support a besieged Emirati civil society. Strong, functioning civil societies across the world—including in the UAE—are, as President Obama rightly identified, “a matter of national security” for the United States. This report is based on research conducted during a Human Rights First fact-finding trip to the UAE in April 2015, including dozens of discussions with human rights defenders, civil society activists, journalists, academics, lawyers, independent experts, officials from the United States and other governments, and others. Local human rights activists spoke to Human Rights First on condition of anonymity out of fear for their safety. Human Rights First thanks all those who provided information for this report.
Topic:
Civil Society, Human Rights, Terrorism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Abu Dhabi, and UAE

1223. First Doha Meeting on Security in Afghanistan

Author:
P. Cotta-Ramusino
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
Pugwash held a non-official meeting on Security in Afghanistan in Doha on 2-3 May 2015. The meeting involved more than 40 participants, all of whom represented only him/herself and not any Institution or group
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Regional Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Middle East

1224. Tehran Calling: Understanding a New Iranian Leadership

Author:
Cornelius Adebahr
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After years of tension, sanctions, and deadlocked negotiations, Hassan Rouhani, Iran's relatively moderate new president, has provided an opening for improved relations between the Islamic Republic and the West. While Rouhani has not ushered in a new Iran, Tehran has adopted a more conciliatory tone on its nuclear program since he took office. This shift is more than just talk, but the West will have to carefully calibrate its response to determine whether Rouhani's changed rhetoric signals the beginning of a new direction for Iran.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Islam, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

1225. European Narratives on the "Arab Spring" – From Democracy to Security

Author:
Peter Seeberg and Musa Shteiwi
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
Peter Seeberg & Musa Shteiwi wrote an article on the "European Narratives on the "Arab Spring" – From Democracy to Security". The article discusses the EU’s reaction to the developments in the MENA-region in the period 2011-14. Initially relatively optimistic metaphors like ‘the Arab Spring’ or ‘the Democratic Tsunami’ were part of the media-comments from Western leaders, but three years. later the situation in the region seems to have changed significantly and consequently the narrative in the EU has switched from a predominantly pro-‘Arab Spring’ discourse to a focus on security aspects in a broad sense and, especially concerning the situation in Syria (to some degree also Lebanon and Libya), a focus on counter-terrorism. The article are concluding remarks by Peter Seeberg and Musa Shteiwi from a workshop on EU-Middle Eastern relations held at the Center for Strategic Studies in Amman in May 2013. Dr. Musa Shteiwi is the director of the Center for Strategic Studies, University of Jordan. Peter Seeberg is the director of the Center for Contemporary Middle East Studies in the University of Southern Denmark.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Counter-terrorism, Democracy, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan

1226. Drones for Peace

Author:
Michael P. Kreuzer
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPAs), commonly referred to as “drones,” have been the subject of much discussion surrounding potential operations in Syria, primarily in the context of enforcing a “no-fly” zone or enforcement role similar to their role in Libya and modeled after operations in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Yemen. This LISD White Paper examines the prospects of the use of RPAs in Syria and possible future humanitarian crises. In conflict zones, deploying RPAs as currently operated would likely be counterproductive to political aims in an enforcement capacity. Smaller RPAs, however, operating in a number of tactical and other roles, could play a critical role in ameliorating humanitarian crises—for instance in Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere. Tasks may include monitoring key sites designated by the international community and allowed by the host country government, to providing humanitarian aid, to the over-watch of convoy movements and possible general surveillance functions. The stigma of RPAs given their use in other conflicts and elsewhere must be overcome to allow RPAs to be evaluated and used as an instrument for monitoring, assisting, and aiding in humanitarian crises among other roles, not just as (offensive) intelligence or weapons platforms. Examples of RPA use in natural disasters and relief operations in Southeast Asia and pending models for search and rescue operations in the United States and beyond provide a blueprint for similar RPA operations, with their scope limited by the mutual consent of parties to the conflict.
Topic:
Civil War, Drones, Peace, Humanitarian Crisis, and Air Force
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

1227. Countering Nuclear Commodity Smuggling: A System of Systems

Author:
Leonard Spector
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
A comprehensive Center for Nonproliferation Studies report calls on the United States and other concerned countries to adopt tighter controls to stem the flow of nuclear-related goods to Iran, North Korea, and other states of proliferation concern. Even modest improvements across the spectrum of today’s nuclear technology controls could greatly strengthen overall international efforts to constrain illicit nuclear procurement networks, the study found. The now available report, Countering Nuclear Commodity Smuggling: A System of Systems, was prepared by Leonard S. Spector and Egle Murauskaite. The study was supported by the US Department of Defense.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Nuclear Power, Nonproliferation, and Illegal Trade
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Asia, and North Korea

1228. Political Finance and Gender Equality

Author:
Lolita Cigane and Magnus Ohman
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
Throughout the world, women and men have different opportunities to participate in the political sphere. This is particularly true when it comes to participation as candidates and elected officials in electoral processes. There are many factors that contribute to existing gender inequalities in politics. While political finance is an important instrument for achieving gender equality in politics, the ongoing debates about political finance rarely consider the impact of money on the level of representation of both men and women in elected offices. IFES' latest publication, Political Finance and Gender Equality, has been developed on the premise that there is an important connection between political finance and gender equality that has not been explored in-depth. Discussions regarding political finance should take into account the issue of gender, particularly in consideration of the challenges that prospective women candidates face with regard to the role of money. This white paper attempts to take initial steps to examine the relationship between these two important issues. After an examination of political finance regulation and its impact on the chances of women and men to effectively run for elected office, the paper reviews the effect of varying electoral systems on gender equality in politics and political finance. Finally, this white paper discusses a recent pilot project in the Middle East and North Africa. A series of interviews with women candidates informed the work of multi-stakeholder working groups in Tunisia and Yemen, and these working groups provided recommendations for reform in their respective countries.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Politics, Finance, and Feminism
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Yemen, North Africa, and Tunisia

1229. Arab armies: agents of change? Before and after 2011

Author:
Florence Gaub
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In the wake of the Arab Spring, this Chaillot Paper examines the role played by the different national armies in the Arab world, and their long history of involvement in matters beyond the military realm. As this study shows, the Arab Spring has marked a watershed in how Arab military forces are perceived: one way or the other, they have once again become the political actors they were prior to the 1970s.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Politics, Military Affairs, and Arab Countries
Political Geography:
Middle East

1230. Health, Social Policy, and Inclusive Growth in MENA

Author:
Randa Alami
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper takes stock of the current status of health sectors in MENA. From the narrow perspective of national aggregate indicators, as with most middle income countries, the region has seen significant achievements. Yet, health sectors face systemic challenges, and suffer from significant and persistent inequities in health outcomes, access, delivery, and distribution of health services. Out of pocket spending levels are amongst the highest in the world, and are driven by: privatisation, poor social protection and insurance coverage, and the inability to respond to the epidemiological transition. Consequently, the financial burden of healthcare forces significant swathes of the population into poverty, or to forgo healthcare altogether. Sectoral policies have been piecemeal and short‐termist, with a clear neglect of public health sectors. These deficiencies are more evident if MENA is benchmarked against many of their peers, or against the international consensus of Universal Health Care (UHC). To achieve inclusive growth, MENA must reverse the disinvestment in public health, and the central importance of health and health equity to development must be reinstated. By the same token, MENA countries must follow UHC centred strategies, which have a good track record in tackling similar challenges in other middle income countries. While part of the difficulties may lie in financing, the lack of political commitment and weak institutional capabilities have also been serious obstacles. Sectoral reforms must target these failures, and governments need to play a more central role in covering the poor and regulating the sector.
Topic:
Health, Privatization, Inequality, Welfare, and Social Services
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

1231. Globalization, Peace & Stability, Governance, and Knowledge Economy

Author:
Voxi Amavilah, Simplice A. Asongu, and Antonio Rodríguez Andrés
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
A previous analysis of the impact of formal institutions on the knowledge economy of 22 MiddleEastern and Sub-Sahara African countries during the 1996-2010 time period concluded that formal institutions were necessary, but inadequate, determinants of the knowledge economy. To extend that study, this paper claims that globalization induces peace and stability, which affects governance and through governance the knowledge economy. The claim addresses one weakness of previous research that did not consider the effects on the knowledge economy of globalization. We model the proposition as a three-stage process in four hypotheses, and estimate each hypothesis using robust estimators that are capable of dealing with the usual statistical problems without sacrificing economic relevance and significance. The results indicate that globalization has varying effects on peace and stability, and peace and stability affect governance differently depending on what kind of globalization induces it. For instance, the effects on governance induced by globalization defined as trade are stronger than those resulting from globalization taken to be foreign direct investment. Hence, we conclude that foreign direct investment is not a powerful mechanism for stimulating and sustaining the knowledge economy in our sample of countries. However, since globalization-induced peace and stability have both positive and negative effects on governance simultaneously, we also conclude that while the prospect for knowledge economy in African countries is dim, it is still realistic and attainable as long as these countries continue to engage in the kind of globalization that does indeed induce peace and stability. We further conclude that there is a need for a sharper focus on economic and institutional governance than on general governance as one possible extension of this paper.
Topic:
Globalization, Governance, Political stability, Peace, and Knowledge Economy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Global Focus, and Sub-Saharan Africa

1232. Sensitive to Conflict?: Development Cooperation and Peacebuilding in the Palestinian Context

Author:
Neda Noraie-Kia
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Development organisations face numerous challenges in the context of violent conflict. Development cooperation has to be sensitive to conflict in order to be effective and do no harm. PCIA as developed by Kenneth Bush is one approach among others to ensure conflict sensitivity for development and peacebuilding efforts. This working paper applies Bush’s concept of PCIA to the Palestinian case in order to analyse benefits, limitations and potential improvements of his approach. His specific method will be discussed critically based on a literature review and expert interviews conducted with practitioners from the most relevant state and multilateral development agencies. Considering the specific challenges in the Palestinian context this study aims to contribute to the debate on conflict sensitive development cooperation. The analysis of the Palestinian case eventually should help to identify gaps and potential fields for future research.
Topic:
Security, Development, Conflict, Borders, Peace, and Territory
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1233. Increasing Diversity in the Euro-Mediterranean Region?

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Contrary to what was previously thought, the Arab revolutions have not led to the democratization of the entire Southern Mediterranean region. In fact, the region is today more heterogeneous than before, with some countries heading towards democracy and others plunged into severe internal crisis. Old and new internal and external actors are also willing to gain influence and power amidst diverging conflicts of interests.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Democratization, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

1234. Report of the Kick Off Meeting "The Arab Spring in Comparative Perspective"o

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
On the occasion of the Annual Summit of the Strategic Studies Network (Bangkok, 23-25 February 2014), several EuroMeSCo researchers participated in the kick off meeting of the Working Group “The Arab Spring in Comparative Perspective”. This group, lead by the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) will involve over 20 EuroMeSCo researchers, who will work throughout the year with the aim of publishing a joint volume on comparative perspectives of the transitions in the Arab world. The Working Group is structured around two main blocks: “Internal changes in transition processes: What priorities?” and “External actors and regional integration”. It consists of a total of 6 working packages, each of them lead by two EuroMeSCo researchers. The topics to be explored are: State building processes and reforms, security sector reform, the role of religion in transitional processes, socio-economic reforms, the role of the European Union in supporting democratic transitions in the Southern Mediterranean and regional integration.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Politics, Religion, and Economies
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

1235. Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Center of Arab Transitions

Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The workshop "Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Centre of Arab Transitions" focused on the analysis of the current phase of the democratic transition in Egypt, dominated by a high level of polarisation. It was organized by EuroMesco, the European Institute of the Meditereanan (IMed) and the Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), wit the support of the Spanish agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID). This was the last of a series of four workshops organised in the framework of a program to strengthen the capacities of think tanks and research institutes in Meditereanan countries, mainly in light of the current democratisation process and regional transformations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt

1236. Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Centre of Arab Transitions

Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The workshop "Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Center of Arab Transitions" focused on the analysis of the current phase of the democractic transition in Egypt, dominated by a high level of polarisation. It was organised by EuroMeSco, the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and the Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), with the support of the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID). This was the last of a series of four workshops organised in the framework of a programme to strengthen the capacities of think tanks and research institutes in Mediterranean countries, mainly in light of the current democratisation processes and regional transformations.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Politics, Religion, and Elections
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt

1237. South Asia Regional Dynamics and Strategic Concerns

Author:
Robert D. Lamb, Sadika Hameed, and Kathryn Mixon
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The United States has a number of interests and values at stake in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, or "South Asia" for the purposes of this analysis. But it also has a broader set of such concerns at stake regionally (in the greater Middle East, Eurasia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia)—and, of course, globally as well. Any long- term policy or strategy frame- work for South Asia needs to be built around the global and regional concerns that are most likely to persist across multiple changes in U.S. political leadership regardless of political party.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Islam, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, and India

1238. Iraq in Crisis

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
As events in late December 2013 and early 2014 have made brutally clear, Iraq is a nation in crisis bordering on civil war. It is burdened by a long history of war, internal power struggles, and failed governance. Is also a nation whose failed leadership is now creating a steady increase in the sectarian divisions between Shi'ite and Sunni, and the ethnic divisions between Arab and Kurd.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Insurgency, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Russia, Middle East, and Arabia

1239. The Failure of the Security Paradigm in Syria: The human security perspective

Author:
Ari Kerkkänen
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Few would dispute the assertion that human security has failed in Syria. Authoritarian regimes in the Arab world have had well-documented deficits in human security emerging from coercive internal politics, a lack of respect for human rights such as freedom of expression, and limited freedom from fear and want. The concept of human security has developed mainly within the domain of UN development policy, but it has also made headway in security policy, being advocated as one approach in international crisis management and peacekeeping. Less attention has been paid to its adaptability in forming the basis for the internal security policy of any given state. The main argument of this paper is that human security principles can be the cornerstones of state security, potentially preventing, mitigating, and remedying security issues within a state that could lead to societal upheaval. The argument is presented by outlining some major developments in the history of modern Syria up to its present state of civil war. The paper shows that the security paradigm exercised in Syria has led to a double failure in which human insecurity has resulted in turmoil for ordinary people and has shattered the authoritarian governance. The paper suggests that the rebuilding of security sectors must be based on the principles of human security, not only in Syria but also in the Arab world at large.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, Governance, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

1240. Harvard Field Study Course: International Response to the Syrian Refugee Crisis

Author:
Claude Bruderlein
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The Syrian refugee crisis represents one of the greatest humanitarian challenges the international community has faced over the recent years, prompting record-high levels of international aid. In view of the complexity of the political and social environment in which these challenges arise and the historical scale of the population affected, innovative and creative programmatic responses are essential to address the short and middle-term needs of refugees and reducing instability in the Middle East region. Over 20 students from Harvard Kennedy School and Harvard School of Public Health participated in "Assessment of the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Jordan and Critical Review of the National and International Responses," a winter field study course in Jordan supported by the Middle East Initiative and led by Professor Claude Bruderlein. Read more about their learning experience below and in the attached report.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

1241. From Transformation to Mediation: The Arab Spring Reframed

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Politics in the Middle East are increasingly polarized and fragmented. The Arab Spring's citizen-led spirit of reform is still alive, but societies are increasingly torn apart by bitter tensions between Sunni and Shia, secular liberals and Islamists, and governments and civil society. As polarization has deepened, the concern with engaging in dialogue to bridge differences has intensified. The relationship between these mediation efforts and support for systemic reform will be a pivotal factor in the Middle East's future political trajectory.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and Arabia

1242. Jordan: The Geopolitical Service Provider

Author:
Emmanuel Comolet
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Jordan is in the eye of the Arab cyclone. It remains stable while surrounded by chaotic political situations in Syria, Iraq, Palestine and the Sinai Peninsula. Jordan has not experienced the massive demonstrations aimed at regime change that have been seen elsewhere in the region, and its relative stability has enabled it to cash in on the geo-political services it provides. These services include: hosting refugees from Palestine, Iraq or Syria; remaining a reliable ally for many international powers; featuring a strong army that plays a stabilizing role in the region; serving as an intermediary when neighboring countries need a host or a dealmaker; and providing qualified Jordanian workers to fill open vacancies for companies and countries, especially in the Gulf. The current stability in Jordan matches well its historic capacity to resist and adapt to shocks. However, the contemporary situation of the labor market reveals that the weaknesses observed in the countries having experienced revolutions (e.g., Tunisia and Egypt) are also present in Jordan; labor market participation is low with very few women active, and the unemployment rate of educated young people is worrisome. Both the number of Jordanians working abroad and the number of migrant workers in Jordan show the discrepancy between demand and supply of labor in Jordan. This could become problematic, since the economic situation has been worsening, notably with fewer public jobs available. Hence there is a need for international donors to keep supporting Jordan in a difficult regional environment, for the government of Jordan to wittily manage the balance between Transjordanians and West Bankers in the near future and for new workers to alter their expectations in searching for opportunities outside the public sector.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Syria, and Tunisia

1243. United Nations Sanctions on Iran and North Korea: An Implementation Manual

Author:
Enrico Carisch and Loraine Rickard-Martin
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
This manual is intended as a tool for officials of UN member states, international organizations, companies, and corporations to support sanctions implementation. The manual delivers to frontline actors in the public and private sectors specific guidance to enable more effective compliance with UN non-proliferation sanctions on Iran and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North Korea, and United Nations

1244. The Flawed Strategic Debate on Syria

Author:
Richard Outzen
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Dating from Bashar al-Asad's first suppression of mass demonstrations in April 2011, the war in Syria is now 3 years old, has killed more than 130,000 Syrians, and displaced nine million Syrians, two million as refugees into neighboring countries. Foreign intervention has increasingly shaped the course of the fighting and will continue to have substantial regional consequences. The complexity of this bitter, nominally internal struggle has dampened American enthusiasm for joining the fray or even paying much attention to Syria, notwithstanding the chemical weapon attacks on Gouta, east of Damascus, last August, which captured the attention of the American people, media, and policy community. With an international taboo broken and a Presidential redline crossed, public debate spiked in August-September 2013 over U.S. interests in Syria and the limits on what we will do to secure them. Debate did not result in a consensus for action.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
America, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

1245. The Roots of Crisis in Northern Lebanon

Author:
Raphaël Lefèvre
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Syria's civil war is having a dramatic impact on its neighbors, particularly Lebanon. The spillover is glaring in the northern city of Tripoli, where street violence is rising, sectarianism is at unprecedented levels, and Sunni extremism is flourishing. This instability threatens to spread to other areas of the country. Yet, Lebanon's problems have as much to do with domestic dynamics as with the unrest in Syria. Lebanese policymakers must address a number of issues that have long been ignored.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Political Violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

1246. Maritime Security in the Middle East and North Africa: A Strategic Assessment

Author:
Robert M. Shelala II
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The waterways of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) are among the most important in the world. They facilitate the export of large volumes of oil and natural gas from the region, while also bridging traders in the Eastern and Western worlds through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. While political tensions in the region have at times played out in these waterways since the mid-20th century, their vulnerability has been exasperated in recent years by the failure of bordering governments to promote internal stability, the lack of adequate maritime security capabilities of nearby states, and the potential naval threats posed by the government of Iran.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, International Security, Military Strategy, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and North Africa

1247. Improving the US-GCC Security Partnership: Planning for the Future

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Over the years since the formation of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the Southern Gulf states and the US have developed a de facto strategic partnership based on a common need to deter and defend against any threat from Iran, deal with regional instability in countries like Iraq and Yemen, counter the threat of terrorism and extremism, and deal with the other threats to the flow of Gulf petroleum exports.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, and North America

1248. Assessing Future Water Availability in Arid Regions Using Composition and Salience of Decision Criteria

Author:
Laura Diaz Anadon, Afreen Siddiqi, and Farah Ereiqat
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Water resources development options are usually selected on a least-cost basis. While economic considerations are dominant in choosing projects, there are also a mix of other factors including social demands, political expediency, social equity, and environmental considerations that impact final decisions and development of water supply systems. Understanding local priorities in water resource management decisions can allow for forming expectations of future regional water availability. In this research, we propose that future water availability in arid regions may be assessed by considering key projects that have been identified or planned by regional experts. Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis methods as a framework to organize set of decision criteria and their relative salience, the likelihood of selection (and development) of a project can be determined and used to form expectations of future regional water availability. We use this approach in a case study for Jordan, and find that large-scale desalination projects–that have been in the planning books for decades-are now most likely to be pursued and implemented in the country. Finally, we discuss strengths, limitations, and the general applicability of this method for assessing future water availability in other arid regions.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Environment, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:
Middle East

1249. Fueling a New Order? The New Geopolitical and Security Consequences of Energy

Author:
Bruce Jones, David Steven, and Emily O'Brien
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
On December 16, 2013, Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud, Saudi Arabia's powerful former intelligence chief, gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal. He was speaking out after a turbulent four months in Middle East and Persian Gulf diplomacy, diplomacy that culminated in an interim nuclear deal between Iran and the major powers. Prince Turki, long a close friend to the United States, used the interview to blast American policy. He was critical of U.S. strategy in the region as a whole, but particularly vehement about leaving Saudi Arabia out of the loop as the United States engaged in secret bilateral diplomacy with Iran. "How can you build trust when you keep secrets from what are supposed to be your closest allies?" he fumed.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Asia

1250. The Kurds in the spotlight: local and regional challenges

Author:
Ana Villellas
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The Kurds in Syria, Turkey and Iraq face complex challenges. Among the current Kurdish realities, the emergence of Kurdish self-governing areas in northern Syria controlled by what is considered to be the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) generates considerable uncertainty. The complex civil war in Syria and antagonism between the Kurdish Democratic Union Party and a fragmented Kurdish political spectrum generate many questions as to the future of these Kurdish areas in Syria. In the case of Turkey, old and new internal and regional factors have threatened the dialogue under way between Turkey and the PKK. These include the lack of clear state policies to resolve the conflict, Turkey's current internal crisis, the complications of cross-border dynamics, and the mutual impact of the Kurdish questions in Syria and Turkey. In Iraq, tensions continue between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the country's central administration. The consolidation of Kurdish autonomy – with new elements such as the energy agreement between Erbil and Ankara – continues to generate uncertainty in a context where many issues remain unresolved.
Topic:
Civil War, Economics, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria