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22. Iran, Hezbollah stir chaos in Syria’s southwest
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Behind Enemy Lines: Iran, Hezbollah and ongoing, armed resistance to Syria’s regime merge to create constant chaos.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
23. The Reemergence of Gray-Zone Warfare in Modern Conflicts
- Author:
- Omer Dostri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel’s Struggle against Hamas’s Indirect Approach
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Gray Zone
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
24. Security, Stability, and Counter-Terrorism in Idlib: A Turkish Perspective
- Author:
- Serhat Erkmen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- In Idlib, armed groups can be categorized under three conglomerates: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian National Army (SNA), and radicals led by Hurras al-Deen (HaD). Among these three anti-government groups, HTS is the strongest one. Though the SNA’s Idlib branch has more manpower than other groups, HTS has superiority in terms of discipline, organisation and weaponry.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Governance, Counter-terrorism, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
25. Daesh: The archetype of hybrid terrorist organizations
- Author:
- Triandafyllos Karatrantos
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The rise and evolution of Daesh (al-Dawlah al-Islamīyah fī l-ʻIrāq wa-sh-Shām) marked a new and very interesting debate about the labeling of violent groups that are not traditional terrorist organizations and they are also acting with different roles and using alternate tactics and modus operandi, such as insurgency, within civil and regional conflicts. Furthermore, the establishment of the so called “Caliphate” includes a new parameter in the scientific debate, the quasi state dimension. Daesh is a modern archetype of this vivid scientific debate, but the difficulties in labeling, especially in cases were terrorist groups are taking part in civil conflicts, is not new. Labeling is not only a matter of “name and blame”, is important in order to design an effective and holistic counter terrorism strategy. The aim of this chapter is to discuss the different approaches about labeling nontraditional terrorist groups and to present the terrorist activity of Daesh.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Non State Actors, and Islamic State
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Middle East
26. The Hashd Al-Shaabi: From heroes to … what exactly?
- Author:
- Emma Hesselink
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Now that IS has been defeated, at least territorially, governments, donors and the international community are investing in Iraq’s state building programmes both at national and local levels. However, Nineveh governorate, which suffered greatest damage and requires greatest attention, has been the scene of a highly divided security landscape since its liberation from IS. The chronic divisions between different actors such as Peshmerga and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) are only worsened by the presence of the Hashd al-Shaabi and other non-state actors in the Disputed Territories. This brief provides an analysis of the risks posed by Hashd in Nineveh and offers recommendations into regaining a grip on the situation.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Islamic State, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Baghdad
27. Enhancing chemical security in Kurdistan Region
- Author:
- Dlawer Ala'Aldeen and Goran Zangana
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Chemicals are widely used in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region (KRI) for various civilian purposes. Terrorist organizations have demonstrated their intention, know-how and capacity to convert chemicals of civilian use to chemical weapons. Without an urgent and comprehensive policy response, the KRI can face significant breaches in chemical security with immeasurable risks to the population and the environment. This report follows a special MERI workshop on chemical security, where major challenges were identified and a number of policy recommendation made.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, and Chemical Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan
28. Turkey and China Tie Themselves in Knots Over Syria and Xinjiang
- Author:
- James M Dorsey
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- Turkey expects Chinese support for its incursion into Syria against the Kurds, but in return, China expects Turkey to turn a blind eye to its persecution of Turkic Muslims in Xinjiang. Turkey’s refusal to fully recognize Kurdish rights is thus intertwined with China’s brutal crackdown in its troubled northwestern province. Both parties justify their actions as efforts in the fight against terrorism.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, Ethnic Cleansing, Conflict, Syrian War, and Kurds
- Political Geography:
- China, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Syria, and Xinjiang
29. Does Hezbollah Want a War with Israel Now?
- Author:
- Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Voices in the Arab media have recently suggested that war between Israel and Hezbollah may erupt this coming summer. This debate began even before the rise in tension between the United States and Iran in the Gulf, which once again brought to the fore the possibility of Iran using Hezbollah as a proxy against Israel. In recent speeches, however, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah acted quickly to calm the waters, while delivering messages designed to deter Israel from taking measures against Hezbollah. Nasrallah asserted that Hezbollah was capable of striking strategic sites on the Israeli home front and conquering parts of the Galilee. These statements indicate that as far as Hezbollah is concerned, the current circumstances are not convenient for a conflict with Israel, due to Hezbollah's continuing involvement in the war in Syria and a wish to avoid undermining Hezbollah's recent achievements in the Lebanese political system. Also important is Hezbollah's deepening economic plight, resulting in part from American sanctions against the organization and its patron, Iran, although these economic difficulties have not yet affected Hezbollah's continued investment in its military buildup and deployment for a future war with Israel. Nevertheless, even if Hezbollah has no interest in a large scale conflict with Israel at this time, escalation as a result of particular measures by Israel in Lebanon and the organization's response, or from Hezbollah's own actions against Israel aimed at serving Iranian interests, cannot be ruled out. Israel must therefore prepare in advance for the possibility of a military campaign in the north.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Persian Gulf
30. The Return of ISIS in Iraq, Syria, and the Middle East
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The U.S., its European allies, and its Strategic Partners in the Middle East achieved a significant victory in breaking up the ISIS protostate – or “caliphate” – in Syria and Iraq. This break up has sharply reduced the fighting against ISIS in Iraq, and in Eastern Syria. The U.S.-led Coalition did not, however, fully defeat ISIS in either Iraq or Syria or eliminate ISIS and other forms of extremism as serious threats. It did not bring lasting stability to Iraq or end the Syrian civil war, and it did not eliminate the threat from ISIS and other extremist groups in the rest of the MENA area. This analysis covers two important aspects of the crisis in Iraq and Syria since the break of the “caliphate.” First, it summarizes key official reporting on the resurgence of ISIS as a serious threat in both Syria and Iraq. Second, it puts ISIS in perspective – showing that it did not dominate the violence and levels of terrorism in Syria even at its peak, and noting that ISIS is only one of the major threats to stability in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, ISIS, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
31. Moscow, the Palestinians, and the Arab Spring that Never Was
- Author:
- Micky Aharonson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Russia seeks to be more involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by presenting it as critical to the stability of the whole Middle East. But the legitimacy that it accords to Hamas rules out deeper Russian involvement from Israel’s point of view.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
32. Lebanon’s Reaction to Operation Northern Shield
- Author:
- Elisheva Simon
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Lebanon has neither the desire nor the ability to address Hezbollah’s threat to its sovereignty. The likelihood of Lebanon suffering severe damage in a war against Israel does not change this situation.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Sovereignty, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
33. Syria’s Civil War Is Now 3 Civil Wars
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The fight to depose Assad is over. The battle over his regime’s boundaries has no end in sight.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Islamic State, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
34. Hamas Misread the Map
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The IDF’s response will be harsher than usual, not because Israelis in the center are more valued than those in the periphery but because of the emerging need to show Hamas that it has grossly misjudged.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Hamas, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
35. Egyptian Mediation in Gaza is a Strategic Asset by its Own Right
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- It is in Israel’s interest to solidify the Egyptian role in Gaza, in the context of “conflict management” as a governing policy concept. Egyptian participation in the efforts to stabilize the situation in Gaza serves as an important component in the vital Egypt-Israel relationship. It also helps erode Hamas’ pretensions of Jihad.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Terrorism, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, Peace, Hamas, Strategic Stability, and Mediation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt
36. Will Iran Retaliate against the US for Designating the IRGC as a Terrorist Organization?
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Iran is not likely to target American troops, since Teheran’s strategy is to wait-out the Trump administration.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and State Sponsored Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
37. Iran’s Grip on Gaza is Israel’s Nightmare
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The notion that Hamas could be incentivised by the injection of funds from Qatar has proven erroneous or deeply problematic.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Conflict, Hamas, and State Sponsored Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Qatar
38. Iran’s Struggle to Entrench Itself in Syria
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel, Russia and to some extent the US stand in the way of Iran’s permanent entrenchment in Syria. Israel needs to continue its strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah infrastructures across Syria.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria
39. Expose the Misdeeds of Iran’s Foreign Ministry
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- It is complicit in Hizballah’s terrorism and subversion, in Europe and the US.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, Hezbollah, and State Sponsored Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
40. A Large-Scale Ground Offensive against Hamas is Inevitable
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Neglecting IDF ground maneuver capabilities is a dangerous gamble.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Hamas, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza