Content Type: Working Paper / Political Geography: Middle East / Topic: International Relations

1. China’s Grand Vision and the Persian Gulf

Author:: Anoushiravan Ehteshami
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: China’s engagement with Asian regions beyond its geographical periphery has grown exponentially since the 1990s and this is nowhere more evident than in West Asia and the Persian Gulf subregion. While energy drove China’s early interactions with the Gulf states, within two decades after the Cold War the relationships had evolved into much tighter networks of partnerships. China’s relations with the Gulf states, however, has not been uniform and the case studies of the United Arab Emirates and Iran highlight the complexities of China’s strategy in this subregion and the ways in which it actively pursues its diverse set of interests.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

2. Türkiye Struggling with Economic Problems and Foreign Policy

Author:: Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The ongoing crisis in the Turkish economy poses a risk of destabilisation in the EU’s southern neighbourhood. The intensification of the pauperisation of the society and brain drain may have an impact on the results of next year’s elections. The long-lasting economic difficulties are also prompting Türkiye to normalise relations with Arab states and Israel.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, European Union, Economy, and Instability
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

3. Adapting to New Realities: Israel’s foreign policy in post-Netanyahu times

Author:: Gabriel Haritos
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Israel had to adapt to the revised objectives of the Biden administration in the Middle East and to update its coordination with Russia on the Syria front. The war in Ukraine has reconfigured Israel’s relations with the US and Russia. Israel’s reluctance to provide arms to Ukraine has allowed Russian-Israeli coordination to continue in Syria. The energy crisis triggered by the Russo-Ukrainian war led the US to revise its stance towards Saudi Arabia. The US-Iran talks ground to a halt in Vienna in the light of the growing ties between Iran and Russia. Israel took advantage of the new state of affairs, encouraging the rapprochement between Washington and Riyadh and countering the possibility of the US reopening its consulate in East Jerusalem. In coordination with the US, Israel has promoted the deepening of the Abraham Accords and drawn India into the new Middle East reality through the new I2U2 mechanism. Thanks to carefully managed communication, the Bennett-Lapid government was able to restore diplomatic relations with Turkey while maintaining close cooperation with Greece and Cyprus. It would seem advisable to put in place additional safeguards to maintain the quality of Athens-Nicosia -Jerusalem relations, similar to those which are expected to accompany the revamped relations between Israel and Turkey.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and United States of America

4. What is new about the reset between Israel and Turkey?

Author:: Selin Nasi
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Entering 2021, revising its foreign policy became an ever more pressing necessity for Ankara, in the light of both international and domestic developments. The Turkish government only took steps towards mending its broken ties with countries in the region, including Israel, when the economic cost of its assertive policies began to threaten Erdoğan’s rule. Israeli PM Netanyahu’s defeat in the 2021 elections provided an opportunity for Ankara to step up its diplomatic overtures toward Israel. Bilateral relations may follow a different course than they did in the 2000s, primarily because the basic parameters of the relationship between Israel and Turkey have changed since Israel made new friends in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. The erosion of institutions and the subsequent personalization of Turkish foreign policy render bilateral relations prone to crisis. For Israelis, this is a manageable risk, at least for now, given the benefits Ankara can expect from normalizing relations with Israel. Against the backdrop of an intensifying power competition between the US and China, Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and the current security landscape in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean, opportunities for cooperation between Israel and Turkey remain dependent on the resolution of long-standing issues.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

5. Greece and Turkey in the world today: the public’s view

Author:: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, Panagiota Manoli, and Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The Policy Paper by Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, Senior Research Fellow, Head of ELIAMEP Turkey Programme; Associate Professor, University of Bilkent; Panagiota Manoli, Research Fellow, ELIAMEP; Assistant Professor of Political Economy of International Relations, University of Peloponnese and Evangelos Areteos, Research Associate at ELIAMEP Turkey Programme, highlights the main findings of the third joint poll in Greece and Turkey, which took place in the first ten days of May 2022. Among other things, it aims to capture and compare the perceptions of Greek and Turkish public opinion regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the role of the United States and NATO in European security, and Greek and Turkish identity.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, NATO, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

6. Palestinian Expectations from The Biden Administration

Author:: Rawan AbuJulia
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The United States’ (US) foreign policy trend of intervention in the Middle East has long been accepted as a truism in international relations and politics. For decades, the US has demonstrated a steadfast commitment to peace in the Middle East and has made commendable efforts to mediate the Israel-Palestine conflict. While Washington-Palestinian relations experienced tension during Trump presidency, the victory of Biden left the Palestinians upbeat. Today, one year into Biden’s tenure, the Palestinians continue to hold mixed expectations of the Biden administration’s ability to advance the peace process. This paper attempts, in particular, to analyze the Palestinians’ expectations of the of the Biden Administration, as articulated by high officials and leaders of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO): a legitimate authority representing the Palestinian people recognized by Israel in 1993.[1] An approach that aims to understand Palestinian expectations can yield major benefits: it can contribute to making progress toward better conflict resolution, help advance the peace process, and likely revive the two-state solution. In fact, ignoring Palestinian expectations might lead to misunderstanding, miscommunication and could perhaps interrupt or even thwart the peace process entirely. To identify these expectations, this paper relies on Palestinian and international news sources, along with open governmental data published by the US government and the Palestinian Authority. This paper is divided into four sections. The first section presents the efforts that different US administrations made to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The second section summarizes President Trump’s policy towards the Palestinians, highlighting actions that provoked strong condemnation by the Palestinians. The third section presents President Biden’s policy toward the Palestinians in the first year of his administration, emphasizing the main differences between Biden and Trump’s decisions. The fourth and final part presents the overarching Palestinian expectations from the Biden administration.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Media, News Analysis, Peace, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

7. Policy Paper: Considerations of condemnation and balance of Palestine’s position on the war in Ukraine

Author:: Palthink
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: In classic wars, we waited for the military result, and then we formed a political response. In new wars, there is not a final resolution; there is only the stronger party imposing its conditions. Additionally, there is also geographical control, regime projection, or behavior modification goals. Russia is seeking to maintain its national security and enhance its regional and international position. It has a deep fear that NATO will expand, bringing weapons to its border with Ukraine. Now that the first shock of the war has receded, the world realizes that the war will not exceed Ukraine’s borders. Russia has given indications that it will limit itself to the minimum that preserves its national security by preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. Global concern about the consequences of war is high. People are wondering if it will continue or stop. Additionally, sanctions have been announced. In this context, developing and poor countries are affected by conflict because they depend on foreign aid. Their positions on the war will determine where they are positioned, and how the political, economic and security consequences will affect them. Trying to show a neutral position would not endear them to the great powers. On the face of it, it may seem to be a war fought on Ukrainian lands only, but it is a world war of influence. The survival of developing nations depends on the strength of the international community and the extent to which it supports these nations in the light of political realism, not because of their strength and resources. Many places cannot survive without traditional international support.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Palestine

8. Connecting Strategic Dots: Biden’s Visit to the Middle East

Author:: Eytan Gilboa
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: During Biden’s upcoming visit, he plans to form a regional defense alliance at a regional conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The coalition will include the United States, Israel, and a host of Arab countries, including Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq. In this sense, Biden continues Trump’s policy of the Abraham Accords.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Hegemony, Leadership, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, North America, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America

9. The Importance of International Partnerships for Israel’s Progressive Camp

Author:: Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The progressive camp in Israel has been trying for years to find its way back to the corridors of power and influence, so far unsuccessfully. Those seeking strategies and tactics for change often wonder whether the solution to Israel’s problems will emerge from without, for example driven by international pressure, or from within, by convincing and mobilizing the Israeli public. A third option to this dichotomy has emerged in recent years in the shape of combined and coordinated moves both within Israeli society and in cooperation with allies abroad.
Topic:: International Relations, Civil Society, Nationalism, Politics, Partnerships, Populism, and Progressivism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

10. Turkey and the West: A Hostile Dance

Author:: Nick Danforth
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Tensions between Turkey and the West have steadily worsened over the past five years, but analysts are still no closer to predicting what this means for the future. Many assume that longstanding strategic and economic ties will ultimately force both sides to muddle through and preserve their relationship, while others anticipate that pressure will build to the point where a decisive break becomes inevitable. This paper examines a number of different scenarios that have been put forward for Turkey’s relations with the US and EU, then tries to navigate between the most plausible among them to predict how this hostile dance might progress.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, United States of America, and Mediterranean

11. "The New Levant": Rationales, implications and future trajectories of the cooperation between Jordan, Iraq and Egypt

Author:: Neil Quilliam, Zaid Eyadat, Harith Hasan, Abdelmonem Said Aly, Riham Bahi, Noor Alshyab, Amer Al Sabaileh, Johannes Uhl, and Adnan Tabatabai
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:: In cooperation with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS), the Center for Strategic Studies (CSS) at the University of Jordan held a 2-day closed workshop, in Amman, with regional and international experts on the topic of the tripartite alliance between Jordan, Iraq and Egypt, discussing the nature and timing of the alliance, the national perspectives of each signatory state, policy areas of cooperation and implications for other regional actors. This introductory summary presents some of the ideas discussed during the workshop, but does not necessarily reflect the opinion or assessment of each participant or the hosting institutions.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Energy Policy, Regional Cooperation, Partnerships, Alliance, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Egypt, and Jordan

12. Is the Muslim Brotherhood losing Turkey and Qatar in the light of the rapprochement with Egypt?

Author:: Michael Barak
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: Egypt's relations with Turkey and Qatar have been improving for the last six months, following a long period of diplomatic crises and hostility that lasted eight years and four years, respectively. This rapprochement is an attempt to reset relations in a way that would allow all three parties to maintain their good relations with the new U.S. administration. As a condition for normalizing ties, Egypt had demanded that Turkey and Qatar end their support to the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). This demand has been described in the Arab media as an ominous sign for the MB, which feared it would be sacrificed on the altar of Turkish and Qatari state interests. However, the discourse of the MB's members on the subject, the continued anti-Egyptian remarks of senior Turkish government officials, and the intention of the Egyptian government to execute senior MB leaders suggests that the chances of Turkey and the MB ending their relationship are quite slim. Qatar, for its part, continues to allow the MB's members to find refuge within its borders, but at the same time is not interested in provoking Egypt.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Government, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Egypt, Qatar, and Gulf Nations

13. For Israel’s Acceptance to the AU as Observer Reveals Continental Divides

Author:: Rina Bassist
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist analyzes the circumstances surrounding Israel's recent accreditation as an African Union observer state, and discusses trends affecting Israeli-African relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

14. The Interests of Eastern Mediterranean States and Israeli Policies

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This paper scans the interests and activities of Greece, Cyprus, Turkey and Egypt in the Mediterranean Basin – their varying and competing interests, their points of convergence and cooperation, and the challenges and opportunities for Israel. The paper is based on the main points raised at the third meeting of the working group on Israel in the Mediterranean, held in September 2019 in the Herzliya offices of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, the Hebrew University’s Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. The paper shines a spotlight on key elements in regional relationships and significant activity taking place in the Mediterranean Basin, which Israel must consider in formulating and executing policy. It is based on the presentations and discussions conducted at the event and does not reflect agreement among all participants.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economy
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, Egypt, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

15. Israel and Qatar: Relations Nurtured by the Palestinian Issue

Author:: Michal Yaari
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This article focuses on relations between Israel and Qatar, analyzing them in historical context, in the context of Qatari foreign policy and in terms of their potential and the limitations imposed by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The article describes the shift from a mutual conception of hostility to unusual cooperation over the Gaza crisis. While Israel aspires to avoid additional rounds of violence with Gaza, Qatar seeks to strengthen its regional role as a mediator, and mutual interests converge into joint activity to avert an additional military clash between Hamas and Israel. The cooperation between the states illustrates how the Palestinian issue can leverage regional cooperation. At the same time, the untapped diplomatic, economic and civilian potential of Israel-Qatar relations points to the limitations imposed by the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Economy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Qatar

16. Israel and the Environment in the Mediterranean Basin

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This paper focuses on climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin and the challenges and opportunities which it presents Israel. It is based on the main points raised at the fifth meeting of the research and policy group on “Israel in the Mediterranean” held at the IDC School of Sustainability in Herzliya on February 13, 2020 at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, the Hebrew University’s Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. The paper highlights the vulnerability of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin to the climate change crisis, the key challenges it poses to different aspects of life in the region, as well as the opportunities for Israel and for regional cooperation in tackling it. The paper sums up the discussions and presentations at the meeting and does not reflect agreement among all participants.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Mediterranean

17. An Israeli-Sudanese Rapprochement? Context, Interests, and Implications

Author:: Asher Lubotzky
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this issue of Ifriqiya, Asher Lubotzky discusses the context, opportunities, and risks involved in the pursuit of a normalization deal between Israel and Sudan. Following the 2019 revolution, the different parties in Sudan agreed to a road map for their transition to democracy, which requires that an elected government be formed by the end of 2022. It is clear, however, that the possibility of establishing official relations between Israel and Sudan is on the table and a serious consideration for both parties. This article purposes to make sense of these dramatic developments in Israel-Sudanese relations, place them in a broader context, and analyze the multifaceted interests of both parties.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Middle East, and Israel

18. Implications of the Proposed China-Iran deal for India

Author:: Sruthi V.S.
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:: The ambitious $400 billion deal between China and Iran has garnered worldwide attention. The 18-page draft proposal says that China will facilitate the infusion of about $280 billion to Iran. This major economic and security partnership between China and Iran has raised India’s concerns against the backdrop of its ongoing border conflict with China. According to the New York Times report, the proposed China-Iran deal talks about expanding China’s presence in Iran’s “banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects”, and in return China will receive a steady supply of oil from Iran for the next 25 years at a discounted price. There are more than 100 projects listed in the draft that will see Chinese investments; these include building Free Trade Zones and several very significant ports. The Chinese will also help Iran build infrastructure for 5G networks and come up with an internet filter like the Great Firewall in China. The stronghold of China in Iran could also result in undermining US policy in the Middle East.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, India, and Asia

19. Israel and the UAE: Old New Friends

Author:: Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin analyzes economic factors involved in the recent UAE-Israel normalization accords. In August 2020, the US, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced the full normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. In September, the Abraham Accords were signed at the White House between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and the US. The establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE and Israel and Bahrain opens the door for trade, investment and cooperation. Israel is looking for markets, investments and joint projects. The UAE is dominated by two emirates: Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Abu Dhabi is the main oil producer in the UAE and is thus one of the largest in the world. It has a strong interest in reorienting its economy away from oil and has invested in green technologies. Dubai has invested heavily in real estate and tourism and also wants to diversify its economy. Israel is a very suitable trading partner given its strength in hi-tech.
Topic:: International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, and Normalization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United Arab Emirates

20. Israel-UAE Cooperation in 2019: Warming Relations, Also in Civilian Affairs

Author:: Moran Zaga
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The relations between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel are primarily characterized by mutual interest and cautious rapprochement steps. The rapprochement can be attributed to the pragmatic character of the two states and their shared interests, including, inter alia, opposition to the Iranian nuclear program, opposing religious extremism, regional trade, modernization processes, handling similar environmental issues, and participation in global events and projects. The cautious approach and the limitations in these relations derive mainly from the UAE’s avoidance of official normalization with Israel due to the latter’s conduct regarding the Palestinian issue.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Conflict, and Rapprochement
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, and United Arab Emirates

21. The 2018 Israel-Turkey Policy Dialogue of the Mitvim Institute

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: In October 2018, the Mitvim Institute held its annual Israel-Turkey policy dialogue, for the seventh consecutive year. The dialogue took place in Istanbul, in cooperation with FriedrichEbert-Stiftung, and was participated by Dr. Nimrod Goren, Dr. Roee Kibrik and Arik Segal of the Mitvim Institute. The policy dialogue included a series of meetings and discussions, with Turkish scholars, journalists, former diplomats, and civil society activists. It focused on Israel-Turkey relations, in light of the current crisis in ties, and on Turkey’s foreign policy in the Middle East. The policy dialogue aimed at helping improve Israel-Turkey relations, by enabling experts from both countries to exchange views on regional developments, to identify opportunities for better bilateral relations, and to increase cooperation between researchers and policy analysts from both countries. Throughout the dialogue, there was a sense that Turkey and Israel can find a way to overcome their current crisis and to reinstate ambassadors. Nevertheless, such progress is not expected to lead to a significant breakthrough in the relations. The Turkish counterparts expressed hope that Israel and Turkey will resume talks on natural gas export from Israel; shared their concern over what they perceive as Israel's support of the Kurds in northern Syria; and pointed out that Turkey and Iran should not be considered by Israel as allies, but rather as countries that cooperate at times regarding shared interest but are also competing with each other and adhering to different ideologies and beliefs. The dialogue also emphasized the importance attributed in Turkey to Jewish community in the US, and to the impact it has on the American discourse towards Turkey as well as on US policy towards the Middle East. This paper highlights key insights from the meetings and discussions that took place throughout the policy dialogue. It does not reflect consensus among all participants.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

22. Tunisia and Its Relations with Israel Following the Arab Spring

Author:: Adina Friedman
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The Israeli discourse surrounding regional cooperation tends to focus primarily on the Gulf States and on security issues; as such, it often overlooks more moderate and pro-Western countries in the region, and alternative cooperation tracks that are more along civil and cultural lines. Israel should pay more attention to Tunisia, which constitutes an important geographical, historical, and political crossroads along the Mediterranean coast; which provides insight into democratization processes; which is home to an ancient Jewish community; and which may serve as either an enabling or inhibiting factor for the realization of Israel’s interests in Africa. Despite the current political obstacles to relations between the two countries, there exists a precedent of positive relations and cooperation between Israel and Tunisia, and there is a possibility of expanding this cooperation in the future. Meanwhile, positive interpersonal, cultural, and civil relations should be advanced. These will assist future political relations, once changes occur in regional politics and progress is made in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, Bilateral Relations, Arab Spring, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, North Africa, and Tunisia

23. Divided and Divisive: Europeans, Israel and Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking

Author:: Muriel Asseburg, Nimrod Goren, Nicolai von Ondarza, Eyal Ronen, and Muriel Asseburg
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Over the last 40 years, since the 1979 Israel-Egypt peace treaty (that alluded to but did not solve the Palestinian question) and the European Community’s 1980 Venice Declaration, Europe has been seeking ways to help advance Israeli-Palestinian peace. The task was not an easy one, mostly due to United States of America (US) dominance of peace negotiations and negative Israeli attitudes towards Europe as a mediator. Thus, while Europeans were key in shaping international language on the conflict, they have remained in the back seat when it comes to shaping dynamics on the ground. Since the collapse in 2014 of the John Kerry initiative to advance the peace process, the task has become even more difficult for the Europeans. Realities on the ground, such as a right-wing government in Israel lacking interest in advancing a peace process, expanded settlement construction, as well as the internal Palestinian split and governance deficiencies in the Palestinian Authority, make the two-state solution ever more difficult to achieve. In addition, Israel’s leadership has worked to weaken and divide the EU in order to limit its role on the issue. In this endeavor, it has profited from different interests and priorities among EU Member States as reflected in discussions and decision-making processes regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These trends have increasingly intensified in recent years, and it is the goal of this publication to analyze them, assess their impact on European capacities and policies, and devise recommendations to tackle and perhaps even reverse them. The publication includes three analytical chapters focusing on internal European dynamics, on Israel’s foreign policy towards the EU, and on EU policy-making regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict/peace process.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

24. Existing and Potential Cooperation between Israel and Key Arab States

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: For the past two years, Mitvim Institute experts have been studying the changing relations between Israel and key Arab states – Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. They examined the history of Israel’s ties with each of these states; the current level of Israel’s diplomatic, security, economic and civilian cooperation with them; the potential for future cooperation and the impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on Israel’s ties in the Middle East. Based on their research and on task-team deliberations, the experts put together a snapshot of the scope of existing and potential cooperation between Israel and key Arab states, as of mid-2019.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and United Arab Emirates

25. Trends in Israel’s Regional Foreign Policies: January-June 2019

Author:: Roee Kibrik and Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This document outlines major trends in Israel’s regional foreign policies over the past six months. It is based on the Mitvim Institute’s monthly reports that cover ongoing developments in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process/conflict, Israel’s relations with the Middle East, Europe and the Mediterranean, and the conduct of Israel’s Foreign Service.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

26. Opportunities for Israel in the Middle East (Periodic Assessment, Mid-2019)

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The changes taking place in the Middle East generate new opportunities for Israel in its relationships with the Arab world. Absent progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, these opportunities remain limited in scope, but significant in terms of Israel’s efforts to reshape its relations in the region. This document presents Israel’s major opportunities as of mid-2019 in order to raise awareness of their very existence and encourage policy planning measures and decision-making to fulfill their potential. It is the product of a discussion by the Mitvim Institute task team on Israel’s ties with the Arab world, participated by Yitzhak Gal, Dr. Nimrod Goren, Einat Levi, Merav Kahana-Dagan, Dr. Roee Kibrik, Dr. Moran Zaga and Dr. Ronen Zeidel
Topic:: International Relations, Regional Cooperation, and Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Dubai

27. Existing and Potential Cooperation between Israel and Key Arab States (Snapshot, Mid-2019)

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: For the past two years, Mitvim Institute experts have been studying the changing relations between Israel and key Arab states – Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. They examined the history of Israel’s ties with each of these states; the current level of Israel’s diplomatic, security, economic and civilian cooperation with them; the potential for future cooperation and the impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on Israel’s ties in the Middle East. Based on their research and on task-team deliberations, the experts put together a snapshot of the scope of existing and potential cooperation between Israel and key Arab states, as of mid-2019.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Economy, and Peace
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and United Arab Emirates

28. Democracy and Foreign Policy in Israel

Author:: Dan Miodownik, Lior Lehrs, Benny Miller, Piki Ish-Shalom, Noa Landau, Yigal Palmor, Nitzan Horowitz, Tamar Hermann, Arthur Koll, Roee Kibrik, Daniel Shek, Ksenia Svetlova, Ehud Eiran, Nadav Tamir, Stav Shafir, Aida Touma-Sliman, and Zvi Hauser
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: On 11 June 2019, the Mitvim Institute and the Davis Institute held a conference at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem on democracy and foreign policy in Israel. It included sessions on democracy, international relations and the challenges to the liberal world order; the erosion of democracy in Israel and its impact on foreign relations; and the democracy component in Israel’s relations with surrounding regions. Speakers included scholars, former diplomats, activists, journalists and politicians. This document sums up the main points of the conference.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

29. The 2019 Israeli Foreign Policy Index of the Mitvim Institute

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The seventh annual public opinion poll of the Mitvim Institute on Israel’s foreign policy was conducted in September 2019. It was carried out by the Rafi Smith Institute and in cooperation with Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, among a representative sample of Israel’s adult population (700 men and women, Jews and Arabs) and with a margin of error of 3.5%. This report presents the poll’s key findings, grouped under four categories: Israel’s foreign relations, Israel’s Foreign Service, Israel and its surrounding regions, and Israel and the Palestinians.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

30. Israel’s Regional Foreign Policies: An Annual Assessment

Author:: Roee Kibrik, Colette Avital, Paul Pasch, Ksenia Svetlova, Michael Harari, Dan Catarivas, Ido Zelkovitz, Max Stern Yezreel, Lior Lehrs, Dahlia Scheindlin, Kamal Ali-Hassan, Nadav Tamir, Yair Lapid, and Susanna Terstal
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The Mitvim Institute 3rd annual conference provided an annual assessment of Israel's regional foreign policies. It was held in Tel Aviv on 14 November 2019, in cooperation with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. The conference included sessions on Israel's ties with its adjacent regions – moderated by Dr. Nimrod Goren, and participated by Amb. (ret.) Michael Harari, former Member of Knesset (MK) Ksenia Svetlova, Dr. Ido Zelkovitz and Dan Catarivas – and on the quest for IsraeliPalestinian peace in Israeli statesmanship – moderated by Yael Patir and participated by Dr. Lior Lehrs, Dr. Dahlia Scheindlin, Kamal Ali-Hassan and Nadav Tamir. MK Yair Lapid (Blue and White party) and EU Special Representative for the Middle East Peace Process Susanna Terstal delivered the keynote speeches. This document summarizes the main points covered by the speakers.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

31. Stabilizing and Reconstructing Iraq: A Challenging Path Ahead

Author:: Michael Pregent and Jonas Parello-Plesner
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Iraq has militarily defeated the terrorist organization ISIS. This is the good news, which was also underlined at the recent Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS meeting in Kuwait on 13 February 2018 held in conjunction with the Kuwaiti Reconstruction Conference for Iraq. Yet the task ahead is as daunting as any military campaign. Now Iraq needs to rebuild and to heal its communities to foster an inclusive national identity. Challenges remain, from funding continuing stabilization efforts to the even larger resources needed for reconstruction over the coming years. According to announcements made at the Iraqi reconstruction conference in Kuwait, donors have pledged a decent amount, around $30 billion, although $88 billion was touted as the desired amount by the Iraqi Government. The Gulf countries and Turkey are becoming new large donors. The private sector also showed significant interest, although corruption is still a major concern, which the Iraqi government seeks to address. Continued stabilization is making it possible and desirable for internally displaced persons (IDPs) to return to their homes. Over 3 million Iraqis have returned, but more await in camps or temporary accommodations. Equally important is reconciliation. The UN is working with the Iraqi government to implement this at the national level. Baghdad and Erbil should pursue continued dialogue and concrete steps forward, including on the thorny issue of Kirkuk, in accordance with the Iraqi Constitution. Inclusiveness for Sunnis is important, both during reconstruction and before and after elections, as their disenfranchisement helped produce fertile soil for ISIS. Yet reconciliation should not be only top-down, and local community efforts undertaken by Iraqi civil society organizations are essential. Reconstruction funding should be tied to government reforms and more importantly, to tangible progress on reconciliation and political accommodation efforts. A novel aspect of the conference was the US administration’s new approach to burden-sharing in the aftermath of the ISIS presence in Iraq. President Trump wants to build infrastructure at home in the US and has tweeted dismissively about the $7 trillion the US has already spent in the Middle East. The United States will not disburse public funding for reconstruction, which is seen as nation-building, although it remains among the top contributors to humanitarian and stabilization assistance and will provide loans to private companies. Yet even such investments could pose additional risk for American companies because of sanctions against Iran, whose economic presence is felt in several important sectors. Instead, the US encouraged international institutions and others to step up, and Saudi Arabia, for example, contributed $1.5 billion. Leading up to the conference, the US facilitated a diplomatic reconciliation process between Iraq and Saudi Arabia for outstanding debts owed to Riyadh. The conference also gave Prime Minister Haider al Abadi a strong platform for brandishing his vision of a united Iraq, although some areas, particularly in the Sunni parts of the country, still feel excluded from reconstruction planning. Still, it is an open question whether that positive vision is enough to bring him another governing coalition following the Iraqi parliamentary elections in May. The continued presence of American military forces is increasingly a topic of contention in the elections.
Topic:: International Relations, Humanitarian Aid, Terrorism, Reconstruction, Radicalization, Islamic State, Humanitarian Intervention, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Kuwait, and United States of America

32. Hamas Activities in Turkey against Israel

Author:: Omer Dostri
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Ankara is allowing Hamas to continue operating from Turkish territory against Israel. Israel can and should thwart such Turkish violations of the reconciliation agreement between the two countries.
Topic:: International Relations, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

33. Repercussions of Ammar al-Hakim’s withdrawal from Iraq’s Islamic Supreme Council

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Ammar al-Hakim’s announcement on July 24, 2017 that he is stepping down as the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) came after generation- al con icts surfaced between a number of the Coun- cil’s senior gures, who had visited Tehran to demand that he should be pressured over his reliance on the youth. Moreover, al-Hakim himself rejected attempts by senior members of the council to assume govern- ment positions, and even sought to build unique rela- tions with Arab and Western countries by presenting himself as an acceptable moderate Shiite gure. The outgoing leader is preparing for the upcoming elec- tions to be held across Iraq.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

34. What is Iran’s Approach to US-North Korea Crisis?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The escalating crisis between the United States and North Korea is of special importance for Iran. Firstly, the US Administration of President Donald Trump has designated both Iran and North Korea as an imminent threat to the national security of the United States. The approach builds on the administration of former president George W. Bush’s repeated labelling of Iran and North Korea, as well as Iraq, as key rogue states of the so-called axis of evil, who sponsor terrorism and seek to ac- quire weapons of mass destruction.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

35. MENA Population’s Perceptions of Key Challenges, International Context and the Role of the European Union

Author:: Andrea Teti, Pamela Abbott, Paolo Maggiolini, and Valeria Talbot
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: Survey data from the ArabTrans 2014 survey contains a unique battery of questions pertaining to the perception of the European Union. This report builds on those questions to analyse perceptions of the EU, its development cooperation programmes, its promotion of democracy, the appropriateness of its response to the Arab Uprisings, and the perception of the EU as an international actor. Overall, the data suggests low levels of awareness and relatively negative opinions of the EU’s actions both in general and in the specific context of its response to the Arab Uprisings. However, respondents’ preferences also suggest avenues for policy development for the Union such that it might simultaneously achieve its interests and meet the demands of MENA populations. Throughout, the paper also takes note of specific patterns and conditions found in individual countries which present particular challenges for the EU.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

36. The EU’s Policy Response to the Uprisings

Author:: Andrea Teti
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: The EU claimed it would learn the lessons of the Arab Uprisings with a ‘qualitative step forward’ in its approach to development, democracy, and security. However, an examination of the conceptual structure of revised EU Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) suggests EU policy changed little, and that in later incarnations it displayed a retrenchment towards conventional notions of democracy, development, and security, prioritising the latter over the former two. The Union seems to have failed to re-examine its approach to democracy, development, and security, falling back on approaches to all three which have been tried – and have failed – in the past.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

37. The Political, Social and Economic Drivers of the 2011 Egyptian Uprising

Author:: Pamela Abbott and Andrea Teti
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: In order to understand why the Uprisings happened in the Arab World in 2010-11 and specifically to understand their origins in Egypt, it is necessary to combine a long term political economy trend analysis with an analysis of short term dynamics (della Porta 2015). This enables us to locate the Uprisings in a socio-economic, cultural and political context in Egypt and analyse the interaction between structure and agency (Beinin 2009; della Porta 2014). In doing so we take account of the three temporalities of capitalism: long term changes; mid-term moves between growth and crisis; and the short term dynamics of the immediate juncture. Specifically, the Uprisings can be located in a crisis of neo-liberalism, the growth of the precariat (Standing 2011), a breakdown of the social contract between the state and citizens, and a perception of growing inequalities and a decline in satisfaction with life (Therborn 2013; Subrabmanyam 2014; Verme et al 2014; World Bank 2015). While in the West the growth of the precariat – is a relatively recent phenomenon, in Egypt a large proportion of workers have always been employed in the informal sector, what happened in the 2000s was that an increasing number of the educated sons of the middle classes were forced into this type of employment. This occurred in the face of sluggish real economic growth, at least partly due to the demographic transition with a decline in decent jobs, (full-time, permanent formal sector) for the increasing number of educated young people coming onto the labour market (Hakimian 2013).
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

38. Improving the US-GCC Security Partnership: Planning for the Future

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Over the years since the formation of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the Southern Gulf states and the US have developed a de facto strategic partnership based on a common need to deter and defend against any threat from Iran, deal with regional instability in countries like Iraq and Yemen, counter the threat of terrorism and extremism, and deal with the other threats to the flow of Gulf petroleum exports.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, and North America

39. Fueling a New Order? The New Geopolitical and Security Consequences of Energy

Author:: Bruce Jones, David Steven, and Emily O'Brien
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: On December 16, 2013, Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud, Saudi Arabia's powerful former intelligence chief, gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal. He was speaking out after a turbulent four months in Middle East and Persian Gulf diplomacy, diplomacy that culminated in an interim nuclear deal between Iran and the major powers. Prince Turki, long a close friend to the United States, used the interview to blast American policy. He was critical of U.S. strategy in the region as a whole, but particularly vehement about leaving Saudi Arabia out of the loop as the United States engaged in secret bilateral diplomacy with Iran. "How can you build trust when you keep secrets from what are supposed to be your closest allies?" he fumed.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Asia

40. The Struggle for the Levant: Geopolitical Battles and the Quest for Stability

Author:: Aram Nerguizian
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The United States and its allies compete with Iran in a steadily more unsettled and uncertain Levant. The political upheavals in the Middle East, economic and demographic pressures, sectarian struggles and extremism, ethnic and tribal conflicts and tensions all combine to produce complex patterns of competition.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

41. Iran and Bahrain: Crying Wolf, or Wolf at the Door?

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Bahraini government will need to distinguish better between protestors and terrorists if it wants Washington and other foreign partners to believe its claims of Iranian support for local militants. On May 5, in what has become an increasingly typical event in Bahrain, several individuals threw Molotov cocktails at a police post in a Shiite village, damaging storefronts but causing no casualties. Such incidents have intensified over the past few months in villages surrounding the capital, Manama -- in March, three police officers were killed by a bombing in al-Daih; last month, an explosion wounded another officer in the same village; days later, a police car was firebombed in Hamad Town.
Topic:: International Relations, Political Violence, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Bahrain

42. Sectarian and Regional Conflict in the Middle East

Author:: Aaron Reese
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: The first half of 2013 has demonstrated clearly that sectarian conflict is spreading in the Middle East. This conflict is a product of developments over the course of 2012, including Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's consolidation of power and the development of an armed opposition movement in Syria. A turning point, however, came this year with the Syrian opposition's loss of the strategic town of al-Qusayr in early June to regime forces backed by Lebanese Hezbollah. The intervention of this prominent Shi'a militant group has heightened the "sectarianization" of the conflict. Sectarian narratives provide an emotional rallying point for popular mobilization, and are easily leveraged by actors involved in the conflict to achieve their goals. The rise in sectarian violence sponsored by external actors poses an existential threat to these already-fragile states.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Armed Struggle, Refugee Issues, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

43. UN Peacekeeping: The Next Five Years

Author:: Richard Gowan and Megan Gleason
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: This paper, commissioned by the Permanent Mission of Denmark to the United Nations, analyzes current trends in United Nations peacekeeping and makes predictions about the development of UN operations over the next five years (to 2017). It covers (i) the changing global context for UN operations and efforts to enhance the organization's performance over the last five years; (ii) trends in troop and police contributions; (iii) projections about potential demand for UN forces in various regions, especially the Middle East and Africa, in the next five years and (iv) suggestions about the types of contributions European countries such as Denmark can make to reinforce UN missions in this period.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Relations, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Africa and Middle East

44. NATO in the Gulf: Partnership Without a Cause?

Author:: Jean-loup Samaan
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Eight years after NATO initiated its engagement with Gulf countries through the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI), the results have been modest, not to say disappointing. True, some recent achievements are worth mentioning: the participation in 2011 of the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in Operation Unified Protector in Libya, or the appointment, the same year, of the first UAE Ambassador to NATO, which represented an unprecedented and innovative way to strengthen the partnership.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Reform
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, Arabia, and United Arab Emirates

45. Iran's Economy: On the Background of the New Sanctions

Author:: CESD Research Team
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: CESD has produced new paper on Iranian economy on the background of the new sanctions. The paper looks current situation of Iranian economy, potential impacts of new sanctions, Iranian relations with West, neighbors as well as with Azerbaijan. The paper also focuses on social and economic impacts of new sanctions not only on Iranian economy but also Iranian population.
Topic:: International Relations, Sanctions, Population, and Economy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

46. U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Iran's Perceptions of its Internal Developments and their Implications for Strategic Competition with the U.S. in the Gulf, Sept. 2010 – March 2011 By

Author:: Alexander Wilner
Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: With the assistance of Adam Seitz of the Marine Corps University, the Burke Chair has compiled a series of chronological reports that focus on Iranian perceptions of national security and assess Iran‟s intentions concerning competition with the US.
Topic:: International Relations and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

47. NATO and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) security: Prospects for Burden Sharing

Author:: Sally Khalifa Isaac
Publication Date:: 03-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: This paper was researched and written before the upheaval in the Arab world. It highlights many aspects of the limitations in NATO's relations with its Arab partners. It argues that the current settings governing NATO-Arab relations feature no concrete cooperation schemes.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Arabia

48. Amin Rihani, 1876-1940: The Apostle of the Arab-American Relationship

Author:: Irfan Shahid
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: The tragic events of Black September, 2001, the year that opened the twenty-first century and the third millennium, more popularly called 9/11, is now a landmark in American history that is deeply carved in the psyche of the American people and is annually perpetuated by commemorative anniversaries. It practically destroyed the bridges that had been constructed between America and the Arab-Muslim world. What had been America's main adversary in the Cold War, namely Communism, has now become the Arabs and the Islamic world, which, ironically, had been America's allies against Communism.
Topic:: International Relations, Islam, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, America, Middle East, and Arabia

49. Global Prospects for Utility-Scale Solar Power: Toward Spatially Explicit Modeling of Renewable Energy Systems

Author:: Kevin Ummel
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This paper provides high-resolution estimates of the global potential and cost of utility-scale photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies and uses a spatially explicit model to identify deployment patterns that minimize the cost of greenhouse gas abatement. A global simulation is run with the goal of providing 2,000 TWh of solar power (-7% of total consumption) in 2030, taking into account least-cost siting of facilities and transmission lines and the effect of diurnal variation on project profitability and required subsidies. The American southwest, Tibetan Plateau, Sahel, and Middle East are identified as major supply areas. Solar power consumption concentrates in the United States over the next decade, diversifying to Europe and India by the early 2020's, and focusing in China in the second half of the decade—often relying upon long-distance, highvoltage transmission lines. Cost estimates suggest deployment on this scale is likely to be competitive with other prominent abatement options in the energy sector. Further development of spatially explicit energy models could help guide infrastructure planning and financing strategies both nationally and globally, elucidating a range of important questions related to renewable energy policy.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Globalization, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States, China, Middle East, and Sahel

50. Russia's Policy in the Middle East: Prospects for Consensus and Conflict with the United States

Author:: Dmitri V. Trenin
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: This report is one in a series commissioned by The Century Foundation to explore issues of interest to American policymakers regarding Russia, aimed at identifying a framework for U.S.-Russian relations and policy options for a new administration and Congress that could help right the two countries' troubled relationship at a crucial juncture. The papers in the series explore significant aspects of U.S.-Russian relations, outlining a broad range of reasons why Russia matters for American foreign policy and framing bilateral and multilateral approaches to Russia for U.S. consideration. A high-level working group, co-chaired by Gary Hart, former U.S. senator from Colorado, and Jack F. Matlock, Jr., former U.S. ambassador to the Soviet Union, has provided direction to the project and offered recommendations for action that the United States might take.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, America, Middle East, and Asia

51. Passing a Flaming Torch: The Middle Eastern Issues Confronting the Obama Administration

Author:: Rami G. Khouri
Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: With its army and its diplomatic posture, the American administration is now deeply part of the Middle East. Many of the problems of the region have been clearly aggravated, and in some cases sparked, by American policy, though many of them are a joint venture between Arabs and is, between Tirrks and Iranians, and between Europeans of different nationalities. But because the United States is such a decisive player in the Middle East, it has inordinate power to affect things in the region for good or for bad.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Islam
Political Geography:: United States, America, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

52. Engaging Syria? U.S. Constraints and Opportunities

Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Candidate Obama pledged that his Middle East policy would include re-engagement with Syria; President Obama will find that the past is not easily overcome. The reasons behind his vow remain pertinent. Syria holds important cards in Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine, is Iran's most important Arab ally and has substantial influence over Hamas and Hizbollah. There are indications of potential common ground on which to build, from resuming Israeli-Syrian negotiations, to consolidating progress in Iraq to blunting the rise of jihadi militancy and sectarianism. But significant obstacles to healthy, mutually beneficial relations remain, along with a legacy of estrangement and distrust. They dictate the need for a prudent approach that seeks first to rebuild ties and restore confidence. It will be critical to reassure Damascus that the U.S. is interested in improving relations and resolving the Israeli-Arab conflict, not in regime change. It is also equally critical not to compromise on core principles such as Lebanon's sovereignty or the integrity of the international tribunal investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

53. Learning the Right Lessons from Iraq

Author:: Harvey Sapolsky, Christopher Preble, and Benjamin Friedman
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Foreign policy experts and policy analysts are misreading the lessons of Iraq. The emerging conventional wisdom holds that success could have been achieved in Iraq with more troops, more cooperation among U.S. government agencies, and better counterinsurgency doctrine. To analysts who share these views, Iraq is not an example of what not to do but of how not to do it. Their policy proposals aim to reform the national security bureaucracy so that we will get it right the next time.
Topic:: International Relations and Oil
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

54. Ruling Palestine I: Gaza Under Hamas

Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The policy of isolating Hamas and sanctioning Gaza is bankrupt and, by all conceivable measures, has backfired. Violence is rising, harming both Gazans and Israelis. Economic conditions are ruinous, generating anger and despair. The credibility of President Mahmoud Abbas and other pragmatists has been further damaged. The peace process is at a standstill. Meanwhile, Hamas's hold on Gaza, purportedly the policy's principal target, has been consolidated. Various actors, apparently acknowledging the long-term unsustainability of the status quo, are weighing options. Worried at Hamas's growing military arsenal, Israel is considering a more ambitious and bloody military operation. But along with others, it also is tiptoeing around another, wiser course that involves a mutual ceasefire, international efforts to prevent weapons smuggling and an opening of Gaza's crossings and requires compromise by all concerned. Gaza's fate and the future of the peace process hang in the balance.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Security
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

55. Regional Politics in a Highly Fragmented Region: Israel's Middle East Policies

Author:: Martin Beck
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: The region of the Middle East is highly conflict-loaded. The absence of one distinct regional power may be considered both cause and consequence of this structural feature. At the same time, there are significant power gaps between states in the Middle East, with Israel among the most powerful actors and accordingly defined as a potential regional power. Due to the specific empirical setting of the Middle East region, an analytical design emphasizing relational and procedural dynamics is required. In attempting to develop such a design, this paper utilizes three well-established schools of thought of international relations: (neo)realism, institutionalism, and constructivism. These three schools of thought are further used for developing hypotheses on both Israeli regional policy and its effects on the Middle East. After illustrating these hypotheses in relation to four periods in the contemporary history of Israel, theoretical lessons to be learned for the analysis of regional powers in other world areas are presented.
Topic:: International Relations and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

56. Jordanian National Security and the Future of Middle East Stability

Author:: W. Andrew Terrill
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: One of the most important and longstanding strategic relationships for the United States within the Arab World has been with Jordan. The value of this relationship has increased significantly since 2003 as the result of ongoing U.S. difficulties in Iraq and the wider Middle East. Jordan's longstanding ties with the West, ongoing counterterrorism efforts, and moderate policies toward Iraq and Israel suggest that it may become a central target of violent extremism in coming years. Moreover, Jordan's strategic location within the Middle East (bordering Israel, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the Palestinian West Bank territory) make it an especially attractive target for any revolutionary group with region-wide aspirations.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

57. Iraq, the U.S., and the Region after an American Withdrawal

Author:: Robert Jervis
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: The US will leave Iraq at some point, and needs to plan for this eventuality. There are many uncertainties involved, but taking them seriously is the first step toward being able craft a policy that will reduce the damage to us, Iraq, and the region. Even if the US stays until the violence is brought down, its departure will lead to the reopening of local and regional bargains because of the lack of enforcement. The greatest danger is that heightened civil war will lead to intervention by Iraq's neighbors, but the very possibility of large-scale violence creates possibilities for arrangements to avoid it because all of the parties know that they could lose badly if things get out of control.
Topic:: International Relations and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, and Middle East

58. Iranian Influence in the Levant, Iraq and Afghanistan

Author:: Danielle Pletka, Frederick W. Kagan, and Kimberly Kagan
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: The conflict between Iran and the United States began in 1979 with the Iranian Revolution and the seizure of the American Embassy in Tehran. Born partly of ideological differences and partly of real and perceived differing national interests, it has continued, alternately hot and cold, for almost three decades and seems unlikely to end soon. Like most previous conflicts, its conclusion cannot be foreseen. Many such struggles, like the Anglo-German tensions between 1871 and 1945 and the centuries-long tensions between Britain and France, lead to full-scale war. Others, like the Anglo-Russian or Russian-Ottoman tensions throughout the nineteenth century, lead to more limited conflict. And some, like the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, are resolved without direct armed confrontation. One key to resolving any such conflict is understanding both the nature of the enemy and the scope of the conflict—insights that have eluded most Americans and, indeed, many Iranians. This report addresses this lack of understanding and argues that while neither Americans nor Iranians desire full-scale military confrontation, Iranian activism and American passivity are contributing to a drift toward war.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Border Control
Political Geography:: Britain, United States, Iran, Middle East, France, Germany, and Syria

59. Sunni and Shi'a Terrorism: Differences that Matter

Author:: Thomas F. Lynch
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: There are significant and little appreciated differences in the trajectory of Sunni extremist terrorism and that of Shi'a extremism. The differences exist across six key areas that impact American policy considerations, especially in light of steadily escalating tensions with Iran. First and foremost, Sunni radicals and Shi'a extremists differ in the overall approach and main objectives for their use of terror. The former tend to operate in a continuous, mid-to-high intensity manner, seeing war against infidels and apostates as a perennial condition featuring overlapping waves. Outside of an ongoing and seemingly open-ended campaign against Israel, terrorist attacks by Shi'a groups have by and large featured discrete terror campaigns tethered to state and organizational objectives. Second, Sunni terrorists and Shi'a extremists manifest different patterns for recruiting terrorist operatives and developing terrorist missions. Shi'a terrorists, unlike their Sunni counterparts, enjoy direct state support and for that reason are far more likely to originate from Iranian embassies, consulates and state‐run businesses. Third, despite holding a minority viewpoint within the wider Sunni Islamic community, Sunni extremists, especially Salafi-Jihadis, rely more extensively on the support of their coreligionist expatriate communities in facilitating terrorist activities. Fourth, while employing similar tactics and methods, Shi'a terrorist groups have shown a much greater propensity to kidnap innocents to barter, while Sunni extremists more frequently abduct to kill. Fifth, Shi'a terror groups exhibit a much higher incidence of targeted assassinations for specific political gain, rather than the high-casualty killings featured in Sunni terrorism, and particularly of the Salafi-Jihadist variant. Finally, each sect's extremists manage publicity and propaganda differently. The Sunni approach to information management tends to feature doctrine and resources geared to take immediate credit and widely amplify a terrorist event. Shi'a terrorists, while not averse to normal media publicity and amplification, by and large take a much lower-key approach.
Topic:: International Relations, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: America and Middle East

60. Multilateralism Beyond Doha

Author:: Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: There is a fundamental shift taking place in the world economy to which the multilateral trading system has failed to adapt. The Doha process focused on issues of limited significance while the burning issues of the day were not even on the negotiating agenda. The paper advances five propositions: the traditional negotiating dynamic, driven by private sector interests largely in the rich countries, is running out of steam; the world economy is moving broadly from conditions of relative abundance to relative scarcity, and so economic security has become a paramount concern for consumers, workers, and ordinary citizens; international economic integration can contribute to enhanced security; addressing these new concerns–relating to food, energy and economic security-requires a wider agenda of multilateral cooperation, involving not just the WTO but other multilateral institutions; and despite shifts in economic power across countries, the commonality of interests and scope for give-and-take on these new issues make multilateral cooperation worth attempting.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Privatization
Political Geography:: Middle East

61. Iran: Breaking the Nuclear Deadlock

Author:: Richard Dalton(ed.)
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: The dispute over Iran's nuclear programme is deadlocked. Five years of negotiations, proposals, UN resolutions and sanctions have failed to achieve a breakthrough. As diplomacy struggles and Iran continues to advance its nuclear capabilities, the issue becomes ever more grave and pressing.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Oil, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

62. US public diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific: Opportunities and challenges in a time of transition

Author:: Sarah Ellen Graham
Publication Date:: 12-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:: Two key themes stand out within current US government reports and foreign policy commentaries on American public diplomacy. These are: firstly, that US efforts to attract 'hearts and minds' in the Middle East were inadequate before and immediately after the 11 September 2001 attacks on America and must be improved, and secondly that the administration of public diplomacy has required major reform in order to meet the challenge of engaging Arab and Muslim audiences into the future. This paper assesses US public diplomacy in a regional context that has not been subject to significant scrutiny within the post-11 September debates on US public diplomacy: the Asia–Pacific. This oversight is lamentable, given Washington's significant security and economic interests in the Asia–Pacific, and because the Asia–Pacific is a region undergoing significant economic, diplomatic and political shifts that are likely to complicate Washington's ability to bring about desired outcomes in the future. This paper demonstrates, furthermore, that the Asia–Pacific represents an important case study from which to reflect on the administrative and substantive questions raised in recent critiques of US public diplomacy at a general level.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Development, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:: America, Middle East, and Australia/Pacific

63. HAMBURG BLEIBT ZENTRUM DER NAHOST-FORSCHUNG

Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: In Hamburg existierte eine der größten Spezialbibliotheken Deutschlands zum Nahen Osten; sie umfasst ca. 37.000 Bände und war bis Ende 2006 dem Verbund GIGA German Institute of Globaland Area Studies angeschlossen. Besitzer ist die Deutsche Orient-Stiftung, die begonnen hat, die Bibliothek aus Hamburg abzutransportieren. Die Deutsche Orient-Stiftung hat bislang nicht erklärt, ob und wod ie Bibliothek, die über Jahrzehnte mit öffentlichen Mitteln aufgebaut wurde, wieder der Öffentlichkeit zugänglich gemacht werden wird. Das GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies ist empört, wie die Deutsche Orient-Stiftung mit dieser wissenschaftlich einzigartigen Sammlung von Fachliteratur zum Nahen Osten umgeht. Für den Wissenschaftsstandort Hamburg entsteht hierdurch ein großer Schaden.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Germany

64. Top Ten Global Economic Challenges - An Assessment of Global Risks and Priorities

Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: The beginning of 2007 offers a conflicting picture of the global economy for those trying to discern trends, challenges and opportunities. Concerns about energy security and climate sustainability are converging — finally bringing consensus in sight on the need for action in the United States. But prospects for breaking the global stalemate are still years away. Though some developing countries are succeeding in bringing hundreds of millions out of poverty, too many are still mired in a doom spiral of conflict, poverty and disease— despite the entry of new philanthropists, advocates and global corporations into the field of development. China's projected 9.6 percent growth rate is sending ripples to the farthest reaches of the planet—creating opportunities but also significant risks. The United States remains in the “goldilocks” zone, but this is premised on continued borrowing from abroad at historically unprecedented rates while many Americans fret about widening inequality and narrowing opportunity. While the United States concentrates on civil war in the Middle East, most leaders in the region are preoccupied with putting an outsized cohort of young people to work and on the road to becoming productive citizens.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Middle East

65. A Face of Islam: Muhammad-Sodiq Muhammad-Yusuf

Author:: Martha Brill Olcott
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Muhammad-Sodiq Muhammad-Yusuf (also known as Mamamsodiq Mamayusupov), the former mufti of the Muslim Spiritual Administration of Central Asia, Uzbekistan's first mufti after independence, and the most prominent theologian in the country, is a figure worthy of attention by anyone interested in the political role that Islam might play in Uzbekistan.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and Religion
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Middle East, and Uzbekistan

66. Requiem for Palestinian Reform: Clear Lessons from a Troubled Record

Author:: Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Never has the cause of political reform in the Arab world received as strong verbal support— on both the international and domestic political levels—as it did in Palestine between 2002 and 2006. And while much of the Palestinian reform agenda remained unrealized, Palestinian governance changed in fundamental ways during the reform wave. But international backers of reform in particular had a remarkably short-term focus, a highly personalized view of the process, and a very instrumental view of reform, leading them to turn harshly against the achievements of the Palestinian reform movement when it brought unexpected results. What can this combination of success and disillusioned failure teach us about the cause of Arab political reform?
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

67. TURKEY AND EUROPE: THE WAY AHEAD

Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The pro-reform AK Party's resounding victory in the July 2007 parliamentary elections gives both it and the European Union (EU) a chance to relaunch Turkey's accession process, which has floundered since 2005 due to Europe's enlargement fatigue and a neo-nationalist backlash in the country. That process, pursued with real application, has the capacity to help both sides. Popular opinion may show fatigue but leaders and diplomats need to keep avenues open for when political confidence returns, as past experience with the enlargement process suggests it can.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

68. WHERE IS IRAQ HEADING? LESSONS FROM BASRA

Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Amid the media and military focus on Baghdad, another major Iraqi city – Basra – is being overlooked. Yet Basra's experience carries important lessons for the capital and nation as a whole. Coalition forces have already implemented a security plan there, Operation Sinbad, which was in many ways similar to Baghdad's current military surge. What U.S. commanders call “clear, hold and build”, their British counterparts earlier had dubbed “clear, hold and civil reconstruction”. And, as in the capital, the putative goal was to pave the way for a takeover by Iraqi forces. Far from being a model to be replicated, however, Basra is an example of what to avoid. With renewed violence and instability, Basra illustrates the pitfalls of a transitional process that has led to collapse of the state apparatus and failed to build legitimate institutions. Fierce intra-Shiite fighting also disproves the simplistic view of Iraq neatly divided between three homogenous communities.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Civil War, and War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

69. From Rejection to Acceptance: Israeli National Security Thinking and Palestinian Statehood

Author:: Shlomo Brom
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Despite the current stalemate between Israel and the Palestinians, the issue of Palestinian statehood is sure to reemerge. Israeli national security thinking on Palestinian statehood and the two-state solution has undergone a revolutionary change in the past two decades from total rejection to broad acceptance. After the 1967 war, Israeli thinking was characterized by the denial of the existence of a Palestinian national identity, and the perception that a Palestinian state would pose an existential threat to Israel. The first intifada, which broke out at the end of 1987, convinced the Israeli security community that the denial of Palestinian national identity was pointless and that only a political solution could resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Although security measures alone may have contained the conflict, they simultaneously perpetuated it. At the same time, Israel's regional threat perceptions began to change as the conventional balance of power tilted in Israel's favor, and the likelihood of large-scale ground war was gradually replaced by the threats of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles on one hand, and terrorism and guerrilla warfare on the other. These new perceptions led Israel's political leadership to initiate the Oslo process, which enjoyed wide support among the security community. This process led to mutual recognition between the state of Israel and the Palestinian people, and implicitly to Israel's recognition of the Palestinian right to statehood. The collapse of the Oslo process in 2000 and the outbreak of the second intifada had a conflicting impact on Israeli national security thinking. On one hand it had a moderating effect on Israeli thinking about the terms of the resolution of the conflict and led to broad acceptance of Palestinian statehood, while on the other it deepened Israel's mistrust of the Palestinians and shook its belief in the feasibility of negotiating a permanent status agreement with the Palestinians. The most salient facet of present Israeli national security thinking is the growing importance of demography over geography because current population trends threaten Israel's Jewish and democratic character. As the acquisition of territory has become less important, national security is being defined in broader terms to include threats to the character of the state. The wide acceptance of Palestinian statehood has not precluded an intense debate on the nature of this state and its relationship with Israel. Those who assume that it will be a dysfunctional state hostile to Israel favor unilateral separation, while those who believe in the feasibility of a Palestinian state living in peace with Israel continue to argue for a negotiated settlement.
Topic:: International Relations and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Oslo

70. Is Europe back on track? Impetus from the German EU Presidency

Author:: Sebastien Kurpas and Henning Riecke
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Rarely has an EU Presidency been met with such high expectations as Germany's in the first half of 2007. With hindsight, it might be said that these expectations have largely been fulfilled. The agreement on a detailed mandate for the upcoming Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) under the Portuguese Presidency now offers a way forward for a Union that has been 'in crisis' since the French and Dutch no-votes. This report offers an overview of the German Presidency's aims in the various policy areas and makes an assessment of the achievements of its six-month term. A summary of the content and structural background of German EU policy is given, explaining developments since unification, Germany's motivations for European integration, public opinion on European integration and the stances taken by the key political players in Germany. Insight into the organisational structures of the Presidency appears in the annex.
Topic:: International Relations and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

71. Political Islam in Egypt

Author:: Emad El-Din Shahin
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Drawing on results from a survey among members of the Muslim Brothers and the Wasat Party, Emad El- Din Shahin, Professor at the American University in Cairo and Harvard University, looks at changes in Egyptian political Islam and examines the views of mainstream Islamists of the European Union polices and initiatives in the Mediterranean. The discussion focuses on the Muslim Brothers, the country's main opposition force, and the Wasat Party, as purporting to represent an evolving Islamic centrist orientation. Despite their seemingly different orientations, the commonalities between the two groups regarding their views of the EU far outweigh their differences. Their shared Islamic frame of reference and a perceived inconsistency of EU policies in the region largely explain this similarity.
Topic:: International Relations, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:: America, Middle East, Egypt, and Cairo

72. A Contemporary Challenge to State Sovereignty: Gangs and Other Illicit Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs) in Central America, El Salvador, Mexico, Jamaica, and Brazil

Author:: Max G. Manwaring
Publication Date:: 12-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Another kind of war within the context of a “clash of civilizations” is being waged in various parts of the Americas, Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere around the world. Some of the main protagonists are those who have come to be designated as first-, second-, and third-generation street gangs, as well as their various possible allies such as traditional Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs). In this new type of war, national security and sovereignty of affected countries is being impinged every day, and gangs' illicit commercial motives are, in fact, becoming an ominous political agenda.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and Mexico

73. Illusive Reform: Jordan's Stubborn Stability

Author:: Julia Choucair
Publication Date:: 12-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Since independence in 1947, Jordan has shown a remarkable ability to survive as a political entity. Surrounded by regional conflict and starved of resources, it has endured a massive influx of Palestinian refugees and numerous coup attempts. For decades, the Hashemite monarchy has overcome these political and economic storms by weakening institutionalized opposition to its rule and relying on the distribution of benefits and privileges to create a cohesive support base and a security establishment loyal to the existing political order. The regime has been able to sustain this situation by capitalizing on Jordan's geographic centrality. Benefiting from Jordan's image as an oasis of stability in a deeply troubled region, the monarchy has been able to secure a flow of external assistance that has helped counteract the lack of natural resources and maintain domestic political stability. But the balance has always been precarious. The contemporary process of political reform in Jordan must be understood in this context.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Jordan

74. Islamist Movements in the Arab World and the 2006 Lebanon War

Author:: Amr Hamzawy and Dina Bishara
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The 2006 Lebanon war has had a profound effect on Islamist movements that have chosen to compete as legal parties in the political systems of their countries, testing their relationship with the ruling regimes as well as their respect for pluralism and tolerance.
Topic:: International Relations, Islam, Religion, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Lebanon

75. Jordan and Its Islamic Movement: The Limits of Inclusion?

Author:: Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Recent election results in several Arab countries have transformed formerly theoretical questions into pressing policy concerns: Can Islamist political parties operate within the boundaries of a democratic system? Will participation breed moderation? Strong showings by Hizbollah in Lebanon and by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt have made these questions seem less speculative. And the victory of Hamas in the first election it contested has made the questions impossible to avoid.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Jordan, and Mumbai

76. Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations in the Post-9/11 Era

Author:: Frédéric Grare
Publication Date:: 10-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Taliban insurgents and their Al Qaeda allies, once thought defeated in Afghanistan, are regaining strength. Regrouped and reorganized, better equipped and financed, and more sophisticated tactically, they are threatening both the reconstruction process and the U.S.-led coalition forces on the ground. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, sixty-six U.S. troops were killed in combat in Afghanistan in 2005, more than in the previous four years combined.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Taliban

77. Reform in Syria: Steering between the Chinese Model and Regime Change

Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The issue of political reform in Syria straddles the line between reform of political institutions and removal from power of a particular regime and entails both domestic and external actors. The regime of Bashar al-Asad is under pressure from Syrian citizens who want a different political system and different leadership. He is also under pressure from the United States, which wants Syria to change its regional policy: stop intruding in Lebanese affairs, reduce support of Palestinian groups, and make a bigger effort to prevent infiltration of radical Islamists into Iraq. As a result, it is impossible to separate completely a domestic process of political reform from the external pressures. The two are entangled to a much greater extent than in any other country in the region except Iraq, and the analysis that follows reflects this entanglement.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: China, Iraq, Middle East, Asia, and Syria

78. Lebanon: Finding a Path from Deadlock to Democracy

Author:: Julia Choucair
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Lebanon is arguably the most democratic Arab state. Under parliamentary rule since becoming independent in 1943, it has regular elections, numerous political parties, and relatively free and lively news media. Lebanon also has one of the most complex political systems in the Middle East, based on the premise that a careful balance in all aspects of political life must be maintained among the seventeen recognized religious communities. While this confessional system has spared Lebanon the authoritarianism experienced by many Arab regimes in the twentieth century, paradoxically it has also prevented the transition to a truly democratic state. Nor has the confessional system eliminated the factional strife it was designed to avoid.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Lebanon

79. Iran's Nuclear Program: America's Policy Options

Author:: Ted Galen Carpenter
Publication Date:: 09-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Although it is possible that negotiations between the leading powers in the international community and Iran may produce a settlement to the vexing issue of Iran's nuclear program, it is more likely that those negotiations will fail. If that happens, U.S. policymakers face a set of highly imperfect options.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, America, Iran, and Middle East

80. The Rise and Fall of the Bush Doctrine: the Impact on Transatlantic Relations

Author:: Justin Vaisse
Publication Date:: 04-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Between 2002 and 2005, a relatively coherent and profoundly renewed strategic approach to international relations was developed by the Bush administration. Premised on an optimistic assessment of great power relations (”a balance of power that favors freedom”), it emphasized the importance of promoting democracy as a way to solve many of the long-term political and security problems of the greater Middle East. It rested on the view that American military power and assertive diplomacy should be used to defeat tyrannies, challenge a pernicious status quo and coerce states into abandoning weapons of mass destruction and support for terrorism - without worrying too much about legitimacy or formal multilateralism. The Bush doctrine led to tensions with the Europeans, who for the most part shared neither the world view that underpinned it nor its optimism about possible results, especially as far as geopolitical stability, terrorism and weapons of mass destruction were concerned. Then, in 2005, two silent developments took place: the Bush administration, while insisting on staying the course rhetorically (through “transformational diplomacy”), reverted to classical realism in its actual diplomacy - largely for reasons of expediency. China and India, on the other hand, imposed themselves on the global agenda, bringing multipolarity back into the picture of the world to come. While generally closer to European views, the new American realist line remains distinct from the European insistence on strengthening the rules and institutions of global governance.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Terrorism, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, and Middle East

81. Palestinians, Israel and the Quartet: Pulling Back from the Brink?

Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Throughout years of uprising and Israeli military actions, siege of West Bank cities and President Arafat's de facto house arrest, it was hard to imagine the situation getting worse for Palestinians. It has. On all fronts – Palestinian/Palestinian, Palestinian/Israeli and Palestinian/ international – prevailing dynamics are leading to a dangerous breakdown. Subjected to the cumulative effects of a military occupation in its 40th year and now what is effectively an international sanctions regime, the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority (PA) government cannot pay salaries or deliver basic services. Diplomacy is frozen, with scant prospect of thaw – and none at all of breakthrough. And Hamas's electoral victory and the reactions it provoked among Fatah loyalists have intensified chaos and brought the nation near civil war. There is an urgent need for all relevant players to pragmatically reassess their positions, with the immediate objectives of: avoiding inter-Palestinian violence and the PA's collapse; encouraging Hamas to adopt more pragmatic policies rather than merely punishing it for not doing so; achieving a mutual and sustained Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire to prevent a resumption of full-scale hostilities; and preventing activity that jeopardises the possibility of a two-state solution.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

82. Morocco: Betting on a Truth and Reconciliation Commission

Author:: Pierre Hazan
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Facing the Atlantic and Mediterranean, just nine miles from the Spanish coast, Morocco is essential for stability in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and American interests in these regions. The United States and the European Union fully recognize its strategic importance. Its proximity, large diaspora, and extensive trade with Europe place it at the top of the EU's Mediterranean strategy agenda. The United States has designated Morocco a major non-NATO ally; it also was one of the first Arab countries to sign a free-trade agreement with the United States. The Kingdom of Morocco is facing four challenges: weak economic growth; a social crisis resulting from social inequalities, with 20 percent of the population in absolute poverty and 57 percent illiterate; lack of trust in the governing institutions because of the high level of corruption; and an unstable regional and international environment. These factors strengthen the appeal of various Islamist movements, from moderate to more radical groups such as the authors of the deadly bombings in Casablanca in 2003 and Madrid in 2004. Moreover, the conflict over the Western Sahara places Morocco's and Algeria's armies, the two most powerful in North Africa, toe to toe. Unlike Tunisia and Algeria, since the end of the Cold War Morocco has taken steps toward political liberalization, and its pace has accelerated since Mohammed VI came to the throne in 1999. As part of the process of liberalization, the king established a truth and reconciliation commission (TRC) in January 2004. This is one of very few cases in which a TRC was created without a regime change. Thousands of victims tortured during the reign of King Mohammed's father, King Hassan II, have been given the opportunity to voice their sufferings publicly and have been promised financial compensation. Such outcomes are unprecedented in a region known for its culture of impunity. Morocco is the first Arab Islamic society to establish a TRC. Its experience shows that political factors play a primary role in the functioning of such a body, while religious and cultural factors are of secondary importance. Although the Moroccan TRC is not an exportable model, it could inspire other majority Muslim societies, such as Afghanistan and Lebanon, which are envisaging or might set up TRCs to confront crimes of past regimes. Some security experts hoped the TRC would be effective in the “soft war” against terrorism by winning the hearts and minds of the population. The actual experience in Morocco shows the limits of this approach. The tension is too strong between the perceived requirements of the antiterrorist struggle and a process to establish accountability for past crimes and advance democratization. In the final analysis, the “war against terrorism” has limited the TRC's impact in Morocco. The report of the Moroccan TRC, published in early 2006, recommended diminution of executive powers, strengthening of parliament, and real independence for the judicial branch. The king and the political parties must decide in the coming years if they will permit the transformation of the “executive monarchy” of Morocco into a parliamentary monarchy. This decision will affect the stability of the kingdom, North Africa, and, to a lesser extent, Europe and the Middle East.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, United States, America, Europe, Middle East, Arabia, Algeria, Spain, North Africa, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia

83. Weak Viability: The Iraqi Federal State and the Constitutional Amendment Process

Author:: Jonathan Morrow
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The cycle of violence in Iraq is, in part, constitutional: it derives from competing visions of the Iraqi state that have not been reconciled. An amendment to Iraq's constitution to delay the creation of new federal regions, together with a package of legislation and intergovernmental agreements on oil, division of governmental power between Baghdad and the regions, and the judiciary, may be enough to slow or even arrest this decline in the security situation, and may be achievable. A “government of national unity,” though desirable, will not by itself be able to generate the necessary constitutional consensus. Iraq's new legislature, the Council of Representatives, is now considering the process of constitutional amendment described in Article 142 of the constitution. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has announced the constitutional review as part of his government's platform. This amendment process, assuming it proceeds, will come in the wake of widespread opposition to the constitution from Sunni Arab Iraqis in the October 2005 referendum. It is expected that a Constitution Review Committee (CRC) will soon be appointed, in line with Article 142. To the extent that it was opposed by Sunni Arabs, the constitution lacks the essential criterion of any constitution: the consent of all major national communities. The 2005 Iraqi constitution may nonetheless, as a legal text, be a sufficient and necessary framework for the radically regionalized Iraqi polity which the constitution drafters envisaged. The constitutional challenge in Iraq is first about peacemaking, not state building. As the Iraqi parliament faces the challenge of appointing, mandating and staffing a CRC, the first, and essential, set of questions is therefore political: How can the amendment process be used as a vehicle to remedy the political failure of last year's constitution drafting process? How can consensus be built, and in particular how can Iraq's Sunni Arabs be encouraged to give their assent to the new federal Iraq? How can Iraq's Kurdish and Shia leaders be encouraged to make worthwhile constitutional concessions to Sunni Arab positions so as to elicit that consent? The second set of questions is legal: What are the minimum constitutional amendments needed, if any, to ensure that Iraq is a viable, if not a strong, state? To the extent that the Sunni Arab position has been one that purports to defend the Iraqi state, legal or technical improvements to the text that support Baghdad's ability to govern may draw support from Sunni Arabs, thereby generating clear political benefits. There are additional legal questions that, though not strictly related to the Sunni Arab problem, are pressing: in particular, What are the minimum constitutional amendments needed, if any, to ensure that the human rights of all Iraqis receive adequate protection? It is not only the Sunni Arabs who feel disenfranchised by the constitution; nationalists, some women's groups, and groups representing Iraq's minorities express similar views. It will be very difficult to pass constitutional amendments of any sort, especially those that seek to shift power from Iraq's regions to the central government. Regional interests have the upper hand, constitutionally and politically. There is no reason to expect that the constitution's Kurdish and Shia authors will see the need for constitutional amendments to the text that they themselves deliberately, if hastily, constructed. The referendum procedure for amendment is onerous, with a three-governorate veto power. High expectations of the amendment procedure will lead to disappointment and may amplify, rather than reduce, violence. For this reason, legal instruments other than constitutional amendments must be considered as ways to remedy the political and legal deficiencies of the constitution. A CRC should be established, with strong Sunni Arab membership. Given the pressing and complex nature of the necessary constitutional deal, the CRC should be mandated to make recommendations, where appropriate, not only for constitutional amendments, but also for (1) legislation, (2) intergovernmental agreements and, where appropriate (3) interparty agreements and (4) international agreements, all of which might encourage Sunni Arab political commitment to the Iraqi constitution and ensure viability for the Iraqi state. A three-part formula, concerning the creation of new regions, oil, and the delineation of powers between the central government and the regions, offers a way forward for the CRC to heal the wounds caused by the deficiencies in the 2005 drafting process. That formula would not require the Kurdistan party or the hitherto most influential Shia party, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), to make major modifications to their constitutional positions.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan

84. Soft Power, Hard Issues: Reports of the 2005 Aspen Institute Roundtable on Public Diplomacy and the Middle East and the Forum on Communications and Society

Author:: Shanthi Kalathil
Publication Date:: 04-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: Having lapsed in importance following the end of the Cold War, public diplomacy has reemerged as a focal point for policymakers, scholars, and practitioners. Particularly following the attacks of September 11, 2001, American public diplomacy in the Middle East has rocketed to a place of prominence in the U.S. foreign policy toolkit. Yet even as resources and attention are trained on refining the U.S. public diplomacy strategy, there is little consensus on core problems, effective solutions, and what success might tangibly look like.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, China, Middle East, Asia, and Arabia

85. Fuelling confrontation: Iran, the US and the oil weapon

Author:: Anthony Bubalo, Mark P Thirlwell, and Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The Iranian nuclear issue has entered a critical phase. A draft UN Security Council resolution has been circulated that could pave the way for political and economic sanctions. Should these fail to change Iran's position, the likelihood of military action will grow towards the end of 2006 and into 2007. At the same time, high oil prices have bolstered Iran's ability to defy demands that it give up uranium enrichment and provide greater transparency with respect to its nuclear program. Given current supply, demand and price indicators, oil provides Iran with a very potent weapon with which to respond to punitive measures. However, the economic and political fallout produced by the use of the oil in this way makes it likely Tehran would use such a weapon cautiously.
Topic:: International Relations, Energy Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Australia/Pacific

86. Iraqi Tribunal Imposes Death Sentence on Saddam Hussein

Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Defense Information
Abstract:: The Iraqi High Tribunal (IHT), or Iraqi Higher Criminal Court, previously known as the Iraqi Special Tribunal (IST), announced Nov. 5, 2006, that it was sentencing former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein Al-Majeed to death by hanging. The verdict comes in the first prosecution Saddam has faced before the tribunal, for the 1982 mass killing of villagers in the Shia town of Dujayl and related atrocities. Bringing Saddam and his henchmen to justice has posed unique challenges to an Iraq that seeks to make a former totalitarian dictatorship subject to rule of law, and in the process respect rule of law by providing fair trials. Unclear is the extent to which efforts to establish an historical record of atrocities, and undertake national healing, would be thwarted by executing Saddam before he can be tried for additional incidents. Of added significance are concerns raised by some voices that the death penalty itself is immoral and inconsistent with rule of law.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

87. Low Intensity Conflict and Nation - Building in Iraq: A Chronology

Author:: Sara B. Moller and Eric M. Brewer
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: May 1, 2003 President George W. Bush declares an end to major combat operations in Iraq. The U.S. lost 138 soldiers during the war. Seven U.S. soldiers are wounded when grenades are thrown at an American base in Fallujah, a stronghold for Saddam Hussein loyalists. Earlier, U.S. troops killed 15 civilians at a protest in the city.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Maryland

88. Currents and Crosscurrents of Radical Islamism

Author:: Julianne Smith, Aidan Kirby, and Daniel Benjamin
Publication Date:: 04-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The second phase of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Transatlantic Dialogue on Terror took place against a backdrop of rapid change. When the first conference in this series took place in Berlin in the spring of 2005, scholars and practitioners were still absorbing the details of the previous year's attacks against the Madrid light rail system, the murder of Dutch artist Theo van Gogh and a host of other attacks and foiled plots. Global radicalism continued to be shaped by the deepening insurgency in Iraq, in which radical Islamists from inside and outside that country play a pivotal role. In the months following the Berlin meeting, the bombing of the London Underground, the attacks in Sharm el-Sheikh and Amman, and a stream of revelations about radical Islamist activity from Europe to the Middle East to South Asia and Australia — where a group of conspirators were arrested for plotting an attack against that country's sole nuclear facility — had also to be taken into account.
Topic:: International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, Middle East, London, and Australia

89. Meeting the Challenge of a Fragmented Iraq: A Saudi Perspective

Author:: Nawaf Obaid
Publication Date:: 04-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: During an official visit to Washington DC on September 20th, 2005, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal proclaimed: “US policy in Iraq is widening sectarian divisions to the point of effectively handing the country to Iran…. We fought a war together to keep Iran out of Iraq, now we are handing the whole country over to Iran without reason…. Iraq is disintegrating.”
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Maryland

90. Iranian Nuclear Weapons? The Options if Diplomacy Fails

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman and Khalid R. Al-Rodhan
Publication Date:: 04-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: There is no way to know what strategy Iran will choose in the future, or how the international community will respond. Iran's possible efforts to acquire nuclear weapons are an ongoing test of the entire process of arms control and the ability limit nuclear proliferation. At the same time, they raise critical issues about how Iran might use such weapons and the security of the Gulf region -- an area with more than 60% of the world's proven conventional oil reserves and some 37% of its gas.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

91. The European Union, the United States and 'Liberal Imperialism'

Author:: Michael Brenner
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:: The Iraq crisis has been a stress test for the transatlantic partners.1 It is the latest in a series that at once has been revealing and redefining their relationship since the Cold War's end. The first Gulf War, Bosnia, and Kosovo: each measured the ability of Americans and Europeans to continue working effectively together. Each highlighted distinctive habits of national mind and action obscured by the exigencies of the Cold War. Each raised pointed questions about the pattern of interaction between the United States and its major allies. Each provided insights into the capabilities, limitations, and internal strains of multilateral organizations: NATO, the European Union, and the United Nations. Each altered attitudes and images in ways that affected how the next crisis was handled.
Topic:: International Relations and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Europe, Bosnia, Middle East, Kosovo, and United Nations

92. The Challenge for Hamas - Establishing Transparency and Accountability

Author:: Ghazi Ahmad Hamad
Publication Date:: 04-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: Prior to the Palestinian elections of 25 January 2006, Hamas had not been expecting at all that it would suddenly find itself in a position to govern. Until the last moment, the movement had anticipated to gain only some 25 seats. It had not hoped for more, but simply to become a strong opposition force in the new PLC (Palestinian Legislative Council). As such, it wanted to push political and administrative reforms.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

93. Continuity and change in Italy's foreign policy under the Prodi government. The cases of Iraq and Afghanistan

Author:: J.C. Mahncke
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: “I see that under the Prodi government Italy already now has and even more in future will be able to have a big role in Europe, and that as a result of this role will be able to take on an important function in relation to the United States and the Arab world […] I believe that in the course of one month Italy has succeeded to launch a strategic rearrangement of its foreign policy.”1 These are the words of Massimo D'Alema, Italy's Minister of Foreign Affairs since May 2006. Indeed, the measures taken by the new Italian government of Prime Minister Romano Prodi indicate, if not a completely new orientation, a revised concept behind Italian foreign policy in contrast to that of his predecessor Silvio Berlusconi. Most striking is the withdrawal of Italian troops from Iraq, to be completed by autumn of this year. But Prodi wants to maintain Italian involvement in Afghanistan, and the government seems eager to uphold the traditionally good relations with the United States, despite the withdrawal from Iraq. While Prodi and D'Alema are in favour of a more important role of Italy in Europe and of the European Union in the world, close ties are to be kept with the United States. According to D'Alema: “The foreign policy of the government intends to favour the growth of an autonomous European actor but tied to the United States by solid and mature understanding within the alliance.”
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Asia, and Italy

94. Recent US Free Trade Initiatives in the Middle East: Opportunities but no Guarantees

Author:: Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:: 12-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: This paper evaluates the US initiative to establish a Free Trade Agreement with countries in the Middle East by signing bilateral agreements with the countries individually and then combining them into a single arrangement. These agreements present new opportunities for Arab countries, but to take full advantage, they will have to complement the agreements with additional policy measures, both individually, and together. The promise comes from the ability to use the agreements as a catalyst for improving regulatory rules and systems at home and facilitating integration with the rest of the region and the world. But the agreements also present problems for Arab countries, first in relating these US agreements to agreements with other trading partners – most importantly the EU; second in creating political difficulties associated with closer relations with the USA given problems in the region, and third, in undertaking the necessary economic and political policies that are necessary to realize the benefits.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

95. The Economic Costs of the Iraq War: An Appraisal Three Years after the Beginning of the Conflict

Author:: Linda Bilmes and Joseph Stiglitz
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Three years ago, as America was preparing to go to war in Iraq, there were few discussions of the likely costs. When Larry Lindsey, President Bush's economic adviser, suggested that they might reach $200 billion, there was a quick response from the White House: that number was a gross overestimation. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz claim e d that Iraq could “really finance its own reconstruction,” apparently both underestimating what was required and the debt burden facing the country. Lindsey went on to say that “The successful prosecution of the war would be good for the economy.”
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, and Middle East

96. Sistani, the United States and Politics in Iraq: From Quietism to Machiavellianism?

Author:: Reidar Visser
Publication Date:: 04-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: This paper discusses the two prevailing interpretations of the political attitudes of the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the leading Shiite cleric in Iraq today. It is argued that neither the traditional "quietist" paradigm nor more recent Machiavellian interpretations can satisfactorily explain Sistani's actions. An alternative interpretation is offered which highlights Sistani's historical oscillation between passive and activist positions. It is suggested that, after an activist intermezzo from June 2003 to December 2004, Sistani has reverted to a more secluded role, again showing an increasing reluctance to fulfil the wishes of his many wooers in Iraqi politics, and limiting his interference to matters directly connected with the Shiite faith and its institutions. It is concluded that Sistani's professional interests as a cleric – rather than any constant desire on his part to control and manipulate domestic politics – may be the key to understanding any future intervention in the political process in Iraq. Scepticism is also expressed toward the notion of Sistani as a guarantor for a "moderate" or "secular" Iraqi political system that would supposedly be fundamentally different from that of Iran – an idea that has featured prominently in policy-making circles in the United States and in other Western countries currently involved in Iraq.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

97. Some Comments Concerning the Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice on the Construction of a Wall in the Occupied Palestinian Territory: The Performance of the European Union

Author:: Camela Pérez Bernárdez
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: On December 8th, 2003, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution to submit the question concerning the legality of Israel's construction of a wall in the Occupied Palestinian Territory to the International Court of Justice for an advisory opinion. The Court accepted, and thus entered into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict - one of the most far reaching, difficult, and delicate disputes that the international community has faced. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, it analyzes the most relevant issues in the Wall case related to jurisdiction and merits. Second, it considers the position of the European Union in terms of the Middle East conflict, and specifically, concerning this advisory opinion.
Topic:: International Relations and International Law
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United Nations

98. Iran: What Does Ahmadi-Nejad's Victory Mean?

Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The surprise election of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, who is being sworn in as president this week, has given rise to dire predictions about Iran's domestic and foreign policies and relations with the U.S. and the European Union. There are reasons for concern. Based on his rhetoric, past performance, and the company he keeps, Ahmadi-Nejad appears a throwback to the revolution's early days: more ideological, less pragmatic, and anti- American. But for the West, and the U.S. in particular, to reach and act upon hasty conclusions would be wrong. Iran is governed by complex institutions and competing power centres that inherently favour continuity over change. More importantly , none of the fundamentals has changed: the regime is not about to collapse; it holds pivotal cards on Iraq and nuclear proliferation; and any chance of modifying its behaviour will come, if at all, through serious, coordinated EU and U.S. efforts to engage it.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

99. The Jerusalem Powder Keg

Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: While the world focuses on Gaza, the future of Israeli-Palestinian relations in fact may be playing itself out away from the spotlight, in Jerusalem. With recent steps, Israel is attempting to solidify its hold over a wide area in and around the city, creating a far broader Jerusalem. If the international community and specifically the U.S. are serious about preserving and promoting a viable two-state solution, they need to speak far more clearly and insistently to halt actions that directly and immediately jeopardise that goal. And if that solution is ever to be reached, they will need to be clear that changes that have occurred since Israelis and Palestinians last sat down to negotiate in 2000-2001 will have to be reversed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, and Gaza

100. Disengagement and Its Discontents: What Will the Israeli Settlers Do?

Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Scheduled for 15 August 2005, Israel's disengagement from Gaza and parts of the northern West Bank has already begun. How Israel for the first time evacuates settlements in the Palestinian Occupied Territories will have profound implications for Israeli-Palestinian relations, but also for Israeli society. Regardless of one's assessment of the settlers and their enterprise -- regarded internationally as illegal, by many Israelis as irresponsible and by others as the embodiment of the Zionist project -- it is bound to be a traumatic event for Israel. If it should be mishandled, accompanied by violent settler resistance or Palestinian attacks, the prospects for subsequent peace would be much bleaker. The international community's interest is to press for complete disengagement and then a credible follow-on political process.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS