Content Type: Working Paper / Political Geography: Middle East / Topic: Economics

1. Global Terrorism Index 2023

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from TerrorismTracker and other sources. TerrorismTracker provides event records on terrorist attacks since 1 January 2007. The dataset contains almost 66,000 terrorist incidents for the period 2007 to 2022. In 2022, deaths from terrorism fell by nine per cent to 6,701 deaths and is now 38 per cent lower than at its peak in 2015. The fall in deaths was mirrored by a reduction in the number of incidents, with attacks declining by almost 28 per cent from 5,463 in 2021 to 3,955 in 2022. However, if Afghanistan was removed from the index, terrorism deaths would have increased by four per cent. Afghanistan remained the country most impacted by terrorism for the fourth consecutive year, despite attacks and deaths falling by 75 per cent and 58 per cent respectively. The GTI does not include acts of state repression and violence by state actors and, as such, acts committed by the Taliban are no longer included in the scope of the report since they took control of the government.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Finance, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Global Focus

2. Governance Practices in Turkey: A Comparative Perspective

Author:: Dimitris Tsarouhas
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Turkey’s latest National Development Plan seeks to attain economic and social development equal to that of the world’s most prosperous states. By structuring expectations and incentives for economic and political actors, institutions play a key role in achieving sustainable, long-term development. This paper provides a systematic longitudinal analysis of core governance indicators which shed light on Turkey’s evolution over time from a comparative perspective. The results point to a sharp decline in the institutional efficacy of the Turkish apparatus of state vis a vis core aspects of the country’s development agenda, especially with regard to the rule of law, public administration, regulatory capacity, and predictability. Turkey’s declining scores in recent years fly in the face of its political agenda and severely undermine welfare gains made in the early 21st century.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Governance, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

3. The Israeli Economy in an Uncertain Global Environment

Author:: Tomer Fadlon and Esteban F. Klor
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Economic uncertainty has increased in recent months following the macroeconomic figures published by the major economies. The return of inflation, the supply chain crisis, and the war in Ukraine are leaving their mark on the global economy and arouse concern among both politicians and central banks. In contrast to most of the world's countries, Israel seems like an island of economic stability: inflation is relatively low, and while Western countries are posting negative growth, second-quarter growth in Israel exceeded the expectations. Yet despite the positive data, the slowdown among Israel's main trading partners is expected to affect the local economy, which will have to contend with a challenging economic environment in the coming months.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Inflation, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

4. Improving the Palestinian Authority’s Fiscal Outlook

Author:: Haggy Erkes and Esteban F. Klor
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Recent reports by the IMF and the World Bank emphasized the dismal fiscal situation of the Palestinian Authority, and recommended boosting foreign aid and implementing structural spending reforms. This article proposes an additional policy: a tax on work permits for Palestinians working in the Israeli econony. This measure stands to reduce the Palestinian deficit by one third, and offset some of the adverse effects of employment in Israel.
Topic:: Economics, Leadership, Fiscal Policy, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

5. A Gateway to Africa? Economic Opportunities in Israel-Morocco Relations

Author:: Morr Link
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since renewing diplomatic relations between Jerusalem and Rabat, the scope of trade indeed has grown between the two countries, but the full potential still has not been realized. How can the economic cooperation be improved, which also entails many policy opportunities for both Israel and Morocco?
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Morocco

6. Demonstrations in Iran in Protest of the Sharp Rise in Prices of Basic Goods

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: At least three people were killed and dozens were injured and arrested in protests that erupted in southwestern Iran due to a controversial move by the government in Tehran. Until now, the scope of the protest is very limited and does not threaten the regime’s stability, but it is additional evidence of the severe economic crisis, which can be added to the long list of challenges facing President Raisi
Topic:: Economics, Protests, Demonstrations, and Standard of Living
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

7. Iraq-Gulf Relations: An Anchor for Stability and Restraining Iranian Involvement in the Region?

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Yaron Schneider
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: While weathering a political crisis, Iraq is now at a crossroads regarding the future of the state. In tandem, neighboring Sunni states, led by Saudi Arabia, are moving closer to Baghdad. What are the reasons for this development, and how is it likely to affect the Middle East, Iran’s expansion in the area, and Israel?
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Economic Stability, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

8. MF Dollars for Dictators? The Allocation of SDR to Moderate and Isolated Countries

Author:: Haggy Etkes
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “The International Monetary Fund assisted radical regimes, including the Russian government and the Taliban in Afghanistan”: This claim was made given the allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) by the IMF to states in the region. Is there truth to this charge?
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, and Middle East

9. The Sky is the Limit: The Azerbaijan-Israel-Türkiye Trio and the Greater Middle East

Author:: Rusif Huseynov
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, the director of Azerbaijan's Topchubashov Center, Rusif Huseynov writes on the existing and potential security and economic cooperation between Israel and Azerbaijan, as well as the strategic link both countries share with Turkey.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Azerbaijan

10. Egypt Faces Severe Economic Problems

Author:: Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In August, a year before the end of his term of office, Tarek Amer, head of the Egyptian Central Bank, resigned. This was a consequence of the deepening economic crisis caused by a decline in the country’s currency reserves and the impact of global problems on Egypt, which is dependent on food imports. Capital-intensive investments, mainly in the energy and real estate sectors, will exacerbate Egypt’s situation. Given the size of its population, economic collapse would have a significant destabilising impact on the EU’s southern neighbourhood.
Topic:: Economics, Currency, Economic Stability, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt

11. Legal Report – A Highlight on Political, Economic, and Social Rights in Palestine

Author:: Palthink
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Within the activities of PalThink Academy for Human Rights and Democracy, PalThink produced a report titled A Highlight on Political, Economic, and Social Rights in Palestine. The report mainly provided a profound analysis of the current public situation in the Palestinian territories from 2019 to 2022. Furthermore, the report was anchored on six indicators including good governance, political participation, public freedom, education, health, and labour. In addition, it gave an in-depth insight into the root causes and consequences of ongoing violations of human rights. To conclude, the report proposed recommendations pertaining to the needed interventions to alleviate the challenges facing human rights in Palestine. This project is supported by the ifa’s zivik Funding Programme and implemented by PalThink for Strategic Studies.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Human Rights, and Social Order
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

12. China’s Infrastructure Projects in the Middle East: Lessons from China’s Engagement Elsewhere

Author:: Dominika Urhová
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Iqtisadi, Ms. Dominika Urhova discusses the economic strategy and role of China in the Middle East, and analyzes the implications of China's growing influence in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and Asia

13. Iranian Public Opinion At the Start of the Raisi Administration

Author:: Nancy Gallagher, Clay Ramsay, and Ebrahim Mohseni
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:: The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) has been conducting in- depth surveys of Iranian public opinion on nuclear policy, regional security, economics, domestic politics, and other topics since the summer of 2014. Each survey includes a combination of trend-line questions, some going as far back as 2006, and new questions written to assess and inform current policy debates. This report covers findings from a survey fielded in late August and early September, shortly after Ebrahim Raisi was inaugurated as Iran’s new president on August 5, 2021. It provides insights into Iranian public attitudes regarding a wide range of foreign and domestic policy issues as Raisi takes office, eight months after we released a similar survey of Iranian attitudes in the early days of American president Joe Biden’s first term in office. Much has changed, and much has stayed the same since February 2021. Biden had campaigned on a pledge to rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and lift sanctions imposed by the Trump administration, as a first step toward further negotiations, so Iranians were relatively positive in February about the prospects for reviving the nuclear deal and improving U.S.-Iranian relations. It took about ten weeks for the new administration to begin indirect negotiations with Iran on a mutual return to full compliance with the JCPOA. The Iranian parliament had responded to Trump’s maximum pressure campaign by passing a law specifying that if the Biden administration did not reverse that policy within weeks of taking office, Iran would exceed JCPOA-mandated limits on its nuclear program in more consequential ways and suspend special International Atomic Energy Agency access to Iran’s nuclear sites that were called for by the JCPOA. The economic, political, and public health crises confronting the new Biden administration precluded it from moving that quickly. The Iranian government promised to r The talks in Vienna made slow, but significant progress as preparations for Iran’s presidential election intensified. Members of the negotiating teams indicated that agreement had been reached by mid-June on some key issues, including the sequence of steps that Iran would take to resume fulfilling its JCPOA commitments and the corresponding sanctions relief it would get from the United States. Some important points of disagreement still needed to be resolved, though. Iran wanted reliable assurances that the United States would not withdraw again or take other steps to preclude Iran from receiving the promised benefits if it abided fully by its JCPOA obligations through October 2025, when the JCPOA specifies that many of Iran’s special nuclear commitments would end and it would have the same rights and responsibilities as other non- nuclear weapon states party to the 1968 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The United States also wanted assurance from Iran that once the JCPOA had been restored, it would start follow-on negotiations to address additional U.S. concerns.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Military Strategy, Public Opinion, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

14. After the Fall: Lebanon’s Path towards Monetary Stabilization

Author:: Jean Tawile
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Lebanon is suffering the worst economic crisis in its history, caused by an economic model that produced a rentier economy feeding off a corruption-ridden state and preventing any economic growth and social justice. This model is not redeemable. This paper argues that stabilizing the currency is a first step to getting Lebanon’s economy back on the right track and explores possible pathways for doing so.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Strategic Stability, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

15. Between Geopolitics and Geoeconomics: The Growing Role of Gulf States in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Adel Abdel Ghafar
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The role played by countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the Eastern Mediterranean is becoming increasingly important. This calls for an assessment of their evolving relationship with countries in the region, as well as their involvement in the Libyan conflict. Increased involvement by Gulf actors may inflame existing regional rivalries and geopolitical tensions. The interests of GCC countries in the Eastern Mediterranean are first analysed in the broader context of regional rivalries. Special attention is then devoted to Egypt, Libya, Lebanon, Greece and Cyprus, while considering the role of other key regional actors such as Turkey and Israel. Recommendations on why and how the new US administration should intervene to decrease regional tensions are provided. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, January 2021.
Topic:: Economics, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Libya, Lebanon, Egypt, Cyprus, Mediterranean, and Gulf Nations

16. The Political Economy of Syria’s Physical Fragmentation and Dependence

Author:: Samir Aita
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: It is difficult to imagine how the Syrian conflict could be resolved through a political process alone that does not directly involve the combating forces in Syria – namely the Syrian army and its associated militias linked to the power system in Damascus, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and their Democratic Union Party (PYD) power system, as well as the “opposition” factions and their respective backers, i.e. Iran and Russia, the USA and Turkey. Similarly, it is difficult to imagine such a solution without addressing the political economy that has emerged and that now underpins these forces’ power, the warlords’ chaos-inducing advantages gained from the country’s physical fragmentation, the hidden or open bargains between these warlords and other powers, and the deterioration of Syrians’ living conditions to unbearable levels. The current situation, where the country’s physical fragmentation has reached relative stability, could persist for a long time at the people’s expense. However, several factors could reignite the conflict: growing competition over resources and rent-seeking activities, even within each area of influence; the ongoing decline in much-needed international aid; and the further deterioration of the situation expected in Lebanon and its consequences for Syria.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Politics, Conflict, Peace, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

17. The Evolution of Female Labour Force Participation in Jordan

Author:: Alma Boustati
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: The purpose of this paper is to analyse the evolution of female labour force participation in Jordan vis-à-vis institutional and economic development. When it comes to institutions, the primary focus will be on family law and labour law. Within the economic development framework, the focus will be on how the social contract motivated the structuring of the economy, labour market, and approach to welfare during three stages of Jordan’s economic development, namely the industrialisation period (1967-1982), the economic bust period (1983-1992), and the economic adjustment period (post-1993). Within each period, the implications of these factors on the composition and size of the female labour force participation is discussed. The findings indicate that a patriarchal approach to welfare, and consequently the low female labour force participation, was sustainable through economic policy which relied on high male wages and high non-wage income achieved through a combination of aid, remittances, and cheap foreign labour.
Topic:: Economics, Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, and Welfare
Political Geography:: Middle East and Jordan

18. Syria’s Growing Economic Woes: Lebanon’s Crisis, the Caesar Act and Now the Coronavirus

Author:: Jihad Yazigi
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The already bleak prospects of the Syrian economy have worsened in recent months with the Lebanon crisis, the enactment of the Caesar Act and now the coronavirus pandemic. This paper examines their impact on the Syrian economy and the population at large. While the cumulative impact is hard to assess at this stage, Syria’s population will remain heavily dependent on the international humanitarian effort. The future of this effort will itself depend on major donor countries whose own economies are likely to emerge weakened from the coronavirus pandemic.
Topic:: Economics, Public Health, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

19. Lebanon: Government Recovery Plan Asks Too Much of Ordinary Lebanese, and Not Enough from Elites

Author:: Sami Halabi
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Facing an economy in free-fall, the Lebanese government has finally adopted a financial recovery plan that it has sent to the IMF and international donors. This paper argues that the plan fails to introduce strong accountability measures to address rampant corruption and mismanagement and does not tackle widespread inequality which could be done through a better distribution of losses and the introduction of more progressive taxation. Despite the government’s stated promise to “protect the poorest segments of the population from the dire consequences of the crisis”, the paper expects the plan to inevitably harm Lebanon’s poorest as well as its middle class.
Topic:: Economics, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Recovery
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

20. Salvaging Lebanon: Expert Opinions on a Way out of the Crisis

Author:: Ismael Sheikh Hassan
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Lebanon is facing an unprecedented crisis with financial and economic collapse, lack of political trust, institutional deadlock, health crisis, and environmental degradation, to name a few. To face these challenges, the government should undertake a reform plan that addresses key priority areas to restore trust and salvage the country. We’ve asked experts to give their views about what they see as essential reforms in each area.
Topic:: Economics, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

21. How Do International Sanctions End? Towards a Process-Oriented, Relational, and Signalling Perspective

Author:: Julia Grauvogel and Hana Attia
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: Research on sanctions has hitherto focused on their implementation and effectiveness, whereas the termination of such measures has received only little attention. The traditional model, which looks at sanctions and their removal in terms of rational, interstate bargaining, focuses on how cost–benefit calculations affect the duration and termination of such measures. Yet, this research insufficiently captures the back and forth between easing sanctions, stagnation, and renewed intensification. It also fails to account for the multifaceted social relations between senders, targets, and third actors that shape these termination processes, as well as for the signalling dimension of ending sanctions – not least because existing datasets tend to operationalise sanctions as a single event. To help fill these gaps, the paper proposes a process-oriented and relational understanding that also recognises how sanctions termination conveys the message of ending the visible disapproval of the target, which may be heavily contested. Case studies on Zimbabwe and Iran illustrate how such an approach sheds light on the different logics of action that shape processes of sanctions termination, and thereby contributes to a more holistic understanding of sanctions in general.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Africa, Iran, Middle East, and Zimbabwe

22. Lebanon’s economic ship is sinking, taking Hezbollah with it

Author:: Udi Levi
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Trump administration has realized that in order to wound Hezbollah on a profound level the organization must be disjoined from the Lebanese economy, with an emphasis on the country’s banking system.
Topic:: Economics, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

23. Syria’s dictator Bashar Assad faces renewed challenges at all levels

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Bashar Assad is not about to fall, But economic deterioration, regime infighting, sanctions and unrest are combining to place his regime under renewed, severe pressure
Topic:: Economics, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, Authoritarianism, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

24. Lebanon’s Economic Collapse: Consequences for Israel

Author:: Aiman Mansour
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel should study the strategic consequences of the continuous economic deterioration in Lebanon, with an emphasis on the Shiite community’s situation. It might favor Hizballah.
Topic:: Economics, Military Strategy, Conflict, Hezbollah, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

25. Coronavirus and the Campaign against Iran

Author:: Udi Levi
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: There may be a change in Iranian policy towards the US due to Iran’s economic and coronavirus difficulties.
Topic:: Economics, Sanctions, Fragile States, Conflict, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

26. Qatari Cash for Hamas Will Backfire on Israel

Author:: Udi Levi
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: What Happens When Hezbollah Seeks a Similar Arrangement of Quiet for Cash?
Topic:: Economics, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Qatar

27. Hezbollah-dominated government emerges in Lebanon

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The new government is the product of escalating popular protests under way since October 15. The protests are in response to Lebanon’s dire economic state.
Topic:: Economics, Military Strategy, Governance, Conflict, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

28. Could Congress’ latest Syria sanctions bill backfire?

Author:: Aiman Mansour
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The congressional bill will exacerbate the economic situation in Syria and ultimately increase Syria’s dependency on Iran.
Topic:: Economics, Military Strategy, Sanctions, Legislation, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

29. Russian and Iranian Economic Interests In Syria (Pre-2010 and intra-war period)

Author:: Hamidreza Azizi and Leonid Issaev
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Discussion paper for the workshop on: “The Politics and Modalities of Reconstruction in Syria”, Geneva, Switzerland, 7-8 February 2019. There has historically been low levels of trade and investment from both Russia and Iran with Syria, with trade in military items being a notable exception. While the trade relationship between Syria and its two main allies predates the conflict, levels of trade had been remarkably low before the crisis, in contrast to mainstream perceptions. Yet, these figures cannot be confirmed due to unavailability of a comprehensive record of the Syrian bilateral relationship with Iran and Russia. Internationally imposed sanctions have discouraged Russian and Iranian companies from doing business with Syria. Lacking any other resources, the only way that Syrian could repay debts to its allies would be to grant exclusive access to energy and natural resources. This however would reduce the public revenue needed to rebuild state institutions, and also encourage foreign rivalry over economic opportunities. As Syria lacks any coordination mechanism for post-war economic reconstruction, Russia and Iran have set their eyes on the energy sector, where Russia has the upper hand. Yet, cooperation is also possible in other sectors, such as Syria’s rail sector. In order to understand the Russian and Iranian economic relationship with Syria, two factors should be considered. First is the informal relationship between Syria and its two allies, which has taken the form of unofficial agreements and trade. These would be important when sanctions are lifted. The second factor is military exports to Syria, expected to be large, given the scale of war and Syrian reliance on Russia and Iran. Due to lack of official data, this paper will not consider both issues.
Topic:: Economics, Sanctions, Conflict, Syrian War, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

30. No Reason to Fear PA Economic Collapse

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: As dysfunctional as the Palestinian national movement has become, it has excelled in perpetuating the pork barrel born in Oslo.
Topic:: Economics, Territorial Disputes, Governance, Leadership, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

31. The Battle for Northwestern Syria: Better Sooner than Later

Author:: Aiman Mansour
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It is in Israel’s interest that Assad regain control of northwestern Syria. Aside from improving the economic situation in Syria, this may increase Israeli leverage in the campaign against Iran’s military entrenchment.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Syria

32. Through a Different Lens: The Mideast as Seen from Doha

Author:: Micky Aharonson
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: At a recent conference on the Mideast economy in Doha, which included the participation of Israeli scholars, discussions highlighted changes in the regional balance of power. Acceptance of Assad’s rule in Syria is growing, but so are questions about how Syria’s rehabilitation will be financed. And some Iranians are signaling that Tehran is willing to make political compromises to alleviate economic pressures.
Topic:: Economics, Leadership, Political stability, Conflict, and Academia
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Syria

33. PeSCo – Anything There for European Defence?

Author:: Sandro Knezović
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The European strategic landscape has changed dramatically over the course of the last decade. The post-Cold War mantra about the obsolescence of conventional threats in the wider European space proved to be short-sighted with developments at its eastern �lanks, while security dysfunctions in the MENA region and their immanent consequences for the safety of European citizens have loaded a heavy burden on compromise-building and decision-making in the �ield of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) of the EU. Furthermore, the approach of the new US administration to European security and the strategic consequences of Brexit have changed the wider framework in which security of 'the Old Continent' is to be determined, hence stimulating European leaders to rethink European security in a strive for strategic autonomy of their own. The very ambitiously phrased EU Global Strategy that came out in June 2016, served as both catalyst and umbrella document for such an endeavour. However, in order to achieve measurable progress in responding to contemporary security challenges, it was clear that the EU needs to develop a structural way for member states to do jointly what they were not capable of doing at the national level. This is so especially in the environment in which China, Russia and Saudi Arabia are championing the defence spending, right after the US, while European states are signi�icantly trailing behind. The fact that the EU collectively is the second largest military investor and yet far from being among the dominant military powers only emphasises the burning issue of ef�iciency of military spending and the level of interoperability among member states’ armies. High-level fragmentation of the European defence market and the fact that defence industries are kept in national clusters is clearly contributing to that. The reality on the ground is obviously challenging traditional methods of co-operation that operate mainly in ‘national boxes’ and calling for a paradigm change in the wider policy context of CSDP. However, it remains to be seen to which extent will this new security environment actually be able to push the European defence policy context over the strict national boundaries.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Military Strategy, and European Union
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Saudi Arabia

34. The Currency-Plus-Commodity Basket: A Proposal for Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries to Accommodate Trade Shocks Automatically

Author:: Jeffrey Frankel
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: The paper proposes an exchange rate regime for oil-exporting countries. The goal is to achieve the best of both flexible and fixed exchange rates. The arrangement is designed to deliver monetary policy that counteracts rather than exacerbates the effects of swings in the oil market, while yet offering the day-to-day transparency and predictability of a currency peg. The proposal is to peg the national currency to a basket, but a basket that includes not only the currencies of major trading partners (in particular, the dollar and the euro), but also the export commodity (oil). The plan is called Currency-plus-Commodity Basket (CCB). The paper begins by fleshing out the need for an innovative arrangement that allows accommodation to trade shocks. The analysis provides evidence from six Gulf countries that periods when their currencies were “undervalued”, in the sense that the actual foreign exchange value lay below what it would have been under the CCB proposal, were periods of overheating as reflected in high inflation and of external imbalance as reflected in high balance of payments surpluses. Conversely, periods when the currencies were “overvalued,” in the sense that their foreign exchange value lay above what it would have been under CCB, featured unusually low inflation and low balance of payments. These results are suggestive of the implication that the economy would have been more stable under CCB. The last section of the paper offers a practical blueprint for detailed implementation of the proposal.
Topic:: Economics, Oil, Exchange Rate Policy, Commodities, and Currency Basket
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

35. Women’s Economic Participation in Conflict-Affected and Fragile Settings

Author:: Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: Globally, women continue to face significant cultural, institutional, and structural barriers to meaningful economic participation. These challenges are intensified for women living in or coming from countries embroiled in conflict. Yet, we know that women’s economic empowerment strengthens women’s rights and grants them increased control over their own lives, allows them to better provide for their families, and contributes to the advancement of their communities and societies. When women are empowered economically, they are safer and less likely to fall victim to domestic violence and sexually transmitted diseases, their children are more likely to go to school and stay in school longer, their daughters marry at later ages, their families are healthier, more sustainable, and more stable. As research clearly shows, women’s increased participation in the economy confers universal benefits. However, failure to analyze and understand how women uniquely contribute to the political, social, and economic environment hampers these societies’ abilities to codify viable peace and promote lasting prosperity. The inaugural volume of the Institute’s Occasional Paper Series reflect the Institute’s recent thematic workshop on women’s economic participation in post-conflict and fragile settings held at Georgetown University in December 2015. As part of Bridging Theory and Practice, this recent symposium brought together leading practitioners and academics to problematize the varied ways women’s full economic participation in fragile settings can and does contribute to more viable peace and lasting prosperity, as well as the myriad political, cultural, and structural barriers that hamper the realization of women’s agency in such contexts. At the conference, practitioners and scholars compared cases from across the globe, gained valuable insights from successful approaches, and uncovered lessons on how to overcome remaining barriers. Presenters covered a range of issues within the field, from gendered resiliency programming during humanitarian crises to the security and developmental implications of women’s land tenure, from the economic status of Syrian refugee women to protecting spaces for women’s economic participation in post-conflict settings. There was also significant discussion on the data that is missing and still needed, particularly surrounding women’s economic participation in conflict-affected areas, how that research can be pursued in the future, and how integral these missing pieces are to fully understanding the economic challenges that women face during conflict, as well as the opportunities that arise out of these difficult times. While it would be impossible to detail the entirety of the thought-provoking discussions that occurred, this volume attempts to share some of the ideas outlined in that symposium. In the following pages, Ann Hudock identifies the key spaces women need safeguarded in fragile contexts if they are to unleash their economic potential. Subsequently, Karen Sherman and Sarah Williamson dive deeply into case studies on South Sudanese women and Syrian refugee women, respectively. Sherman elucidates the obstacles South Sudanese women face in achieving any semblance of economic stability, the methods they employ to overcome such obstacles, and the perils of not facilitating women’s full economic participation in this fragile setting. Williamson unpacks detailed data surrounding the limited employment and economic opportunities Syrian women enjoy both in Syria and across the larger Middle East and North Africa region as refugees. In doing so, she not only unveils the coping mechanisms families in crisis must deploy to meet the challenges of living in protracted crisis and how those mechanisms uniquely and adversely impact women and girls, but she also paints a way forward. Each article provides a rich and nuanced story of how women participate in the economies of war-torn and fragile states. In the end, we hope this volume gives policy makers, practitioners, and academics a unique understanding of and head start in the continued work to implement successful programming to economically empower women in post-conflict and fragile settings.
Topic:: Economics, Women, Refugees, Conflict, and Participation
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, Syria, and South Sudan

36. China and the Middle East: Venturing into the Maelstrom

Author:: James M Dorsey
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: China’s increasingly significant economic and security interests in the Middle East have several impacts. It affects not only its energy security but also its regional posture, relations with regional powers as well as the United States, and efforts to pacify nationalist and Islamist Uighurs in its north-western province of Xinjiang. Those interests are considerably enhanced by China’s One Belt, One Road initiative that seeks to patch together a Eurasian land mass through inter-linked infrastructure, investment and expanded trade relations. Protecting its mushrooming interests is forcing China to realign its policies and relationships in the region. As it takes stock of the Middle East and North Africa’s volatility and tumultuous, often violent political transitions, China feels the pressure to acknowledge that it no longer can remain aloof to the Middle East and North Africa’s multiple conflicts. China’s long-standing insistence on non-interference in the domestic affairs of others, refusal to envision a foreign military presence and its perseverance that its primary focus is the development of mutually beneficial economic and commercial relations, increasingly falls short of what it needs to do to safeguard its vital interests. Increasingly, China will have to become a regional player in competitive cooperation with the United States, the dominant external actor in the region for the foreseeable future. The pressure to revisit long-standing foreign and defence policy principles is also driven by the fact that China’s key interests in the Middle East and North Africa have expanded significantly beyond the narrow focus of energy despite its dependence on the region for half 1 China has signalled its gradual recognition of these new realities with the publication in January 2016 of an Arab Policy Paper, the country’s first articulation of a policy towards the Middle East and North Africa. But, rather than spelling out specific policies, the paper reiterated the generalities of China’s core focus in its relations with the Arab world: economics, energy, counter-terrorism, security, technical cooperation and its One Belt, One Road initiative. Ultimately however, China will have to develop a strategic vision that outlines foreign and defence policies it needs to put in place to protect its expanding strategic, geopolitical, economic, and commercial interests in the Middle East and North Africa; its role and place in the region as a rising superpower in the region; and its relationship and cooperation with the United States in managing, if not resolving conflict.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Economics, Imperialism, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, China, Middle East, Asia, and North Africa

37. Pyramid Capitalism: Cronyism, Regulation, and Firm Productivity in Egypt

Author:: Ishac Diwan, Philip Keefer, and Marc Schiffbauer
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Using an original database of 469 politically connected firms under the Mubarak regime in Egypt, we explore the economic effects of cronyism. Previous research has shown that cronyism is lucrative. We address numerous questions raised by this research. First, do crony firms receive favorable regulatory treatment? We find that they do: connected firms are more likely to benefit from trade protection, energy subsidies, access to land, and regulatory enforcement. Second, does regulatory capture account for the high value of connected firms? In our sample, connected firms exhibit superior corporate performance relative to unconnected firms and this is systematically related to regulatory capture. Energy subsidies and trade protection, for example, account for the higher profits of politically connected firms. Third, do crony firms hurt growth? We exploit a natural experiment setting to show that the entry of politically connected firms into previously unconnected sectors slows employment growth and skews the distribution of employment towards less productive smaller firms.
Topic:: Economics, Economy, Business, Networks, and Cronyism
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

38. Keeping EU-Asia Reengagement on Track

Author:: Richard Youngs
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The relationship between the European Union (EU) and Asia is in flux. The EU intensified its economic ties to Asia and boosted its security cooperation in the region in 2011 and 2012. But new challenges, including the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East, have made it difficult to sustain this incipient momentum. There are a number of steps that EU and Asian governments can and should take to continue to strengthen their relations.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Asia

39. Changing Attitudes under New and Old Systems

Author:: Carolyn Barnett
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Elites in Tunisia and Jordan stress their need to invest in their human resources, because people are the only resources they have. An array of programs has arisen in both countries to help young people learn life and job skills, find appropriate careers, and launch new businesses. Yet a look at recent and ongoing workforce development efforts in each country reveals that these schemes are intended to produce something fundamentally different in each country. Tunisians are working to overcome the legacies of dictatorship and build a new, more democratic system while simultaneously carrying out economic reforms that aim to alter the state’s role in the economy. Jordanians are trying to alter society and economic incentives within a political status quo where too much change too quickly could threaten the political order, and the government therefore faces compelling reasons both to reform and to keep things as they are. This report examines how similar efforts have evolved in these contrasting contexts
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, Human Welfare, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East

40. Kurdistan’s Politicized Society Confronts a Sultanistic System

Author:: Kawa Hassan
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The Kurdistan region of Iraq enjoys more stability, economic development, and political pluralism than the rest of the country. And public opinion under the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) demands rule-of-law-based governance. But power is concentrated in the hands of the ruling parties and families, who perpetuate a nondemocratic, sultanistic system. These dynamics could foster instability in Kurdistan and its neighborhood, but could also provide a rare window of opportunity for democratization.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Economics, Political Economy, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

41. Iran’s Economic Reintegration: Sanctions Relief, Energy, and Economic Growth Under a Nuclear Agreement with Iran

Author:: Elizabeth Rosenberg and Sara Vakhshouri
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The international community is poised to sign a deal with Iran on its nuclear program, under which Iran would make concessions on its enrichment activities and the United States and others would offer substantial relief from punishing economic sanctions. The removal of the most complex, extensive, and multilateral regime of coercive economic measures promises a windfall to Iran. However, this will be neither immediate nor easy, given the difficulty of reestablishing severed commercial and legal ties between Iran and the global financial system. Removing sanctions will require careful international cooperation and substantial outreach to the private sector.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Treaties and Agreements, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

42. Assessing Future Water Availability in Arid Regions Using Composition and Salience of Decision Criteria

Author:: Laura Diaz Anadon, Afreen Siddiqi, and Farah Ereiqat
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Water resources development options are usually selected on a least-cost basis. While economic considerations are dominant in choosing projects, there are also a mix of other factors including social demands, political expediency, social equity, and environmental considerations that impact final decisions and development of water supply systems. Understanding local priorities in water resource management decisions can allow for forming expectations of future regional water availability. In this research, we propose that future water availability in arid regions may be assessed by considering key projects that have been identified or planned by regional experts. Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis methods as a framework to organize set of decision criteria and their relative salience, the likelihood of selection (and development) of a project can be determined and used to form expectations of future regional water availability. We use this approach in a case study for Jordan, and find that large-scale desalination projects–that have been in the planning books for decades-are now most likely to be pursued and implemented in the country. Finally, we discuss strengths, limitations, and the general applicability of this method for assessing future water availability in other arid regions.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Environment, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Middle East

43. Fueling a New Order? The New Geopolitical and Security Consequences of Energy

Author:: Bruce Jones, David Steven, and Emily O'Brien
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: On December 16, 2013, Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud, Saudi Arabia's powerful former intelligence chief, gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal. He was speaking out after a turbulent four months in Middle East and Persian Gulf diplomacy, diplomacy that culminated in an interim nuclear deal between Iran and the major powers. Prince Turki, long a close friend to the United States, used the interview to blast American policy. He was critical of U.S. strategy in the region as a whole, but particularly vehement about leaving Saudi Arabia out of the loop as the United States engaged in secret bilateral diplomacy with Iran. "How can you build trust when you keep secrets from what are supposed to be your closest allies?" he fumed.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Asia

44. The Kurds in the spotlight: local and regional challenges

Author:: Ana Villellas
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The Kurds in Syria, Turkey and Iraq face complex challenges. Among the current Kurdish realities, the emergence of Kurdish self-governing areas in northern Syria controlled by what is considered to be the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) generates considerable uncertainty. The complex civil war in Syria and antagonism between the Kurdish Democratic Union Party and a fragmented Kurdish political spectrum generate many questions as to the future of these Kurdish areas in Syria. In the case of Turkey, old and new internal and regional factors have threatened the dialogue under way between Turkey and the PKK. These include the lack of clear state policies to resolve the conflict, Turkey's current internal crisis, the complications of cross-border dynamics, and the mutual impact of the Kurdish questions in Syria and Turkey. In Iraq, tensions continue between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the country's central administration. The consolidation of Kurdish autonomy – with new elements such as the energy agreement between Erbil and Ankara – continues to generate uncertainty in a context where many issues remain unresolved.
Topic:: Civil War, Economics, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

45. A Window of Opportunity to Upgrade EU Foreign Policy

Author:: Stefan Lehne
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: As the financial crisis recedes and the European Union (EU) regains a measure of internal stability, pressure in Europe\'s neighborhood is on the rise. The Ukraine crisis and turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa have elevated foreign policy to the top of the EU\'s agenda. Whether the EU can make its external action more effective will depend in large part on institutional decisions made in 2014—the selection of a new leadership team and the reorganization of the European Commission.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Human Rights, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and North Africa

46. Wages and Labor Market Slack: Making the Dual Mandate Operational

Author:: Adam S. Posen and David G. Blanchflower
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In this paper we examine the impact of rises in inactivity on wages in the US economy and find evidence of a statistically significant negative effect. These nonparticipants exert additional downward pressure on wages over and above the impact of the unemployment rate itself. This pattern holds across recent decades in the US data, and the relationship strengthens in recent years when variation in participation increases. We also examine the impact of long-term unemployment on wages and find it has no different effect from that of short-term unemployment. Our analysis provides strong empirical support, we argue, for the assessment that continuing labor market slack is a key reason for the persistent shortfall in inflation relative to the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2 percent inflation goal. Further, we suggest our results point towards using wage inflation as an additional intermediate target for monetary policy by the FOMC.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

47. Egypt's Arms Deal with Russia: Potential Strategic Costs

Author:: David Schenker and Eric Trager
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Cairo's possible purchase of advanced weapons systems from Russia could become another irritant in U.S.-Egyptian relations.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Ukraine, Middle East, and Egypt

48. Jordan's Energy Balancing Act

Author:: Simon Henderson and David Schenker
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A deal to buy Israeli natural gas can help mitigate the kingdom's energy shortage and steer Amman away from problematic nuclear plans, but it risks stirring domestic opposition. In February, two private Jordanian firms signed a contract with a private U.S.-Israeli consortium to import natural gas from Israel's giant Tamar field, located under the bed of the Mediterranean Sea fifty miles offshore from Haifa. The Arab Potash Company and the Jordan Bromine Company -- both partially owned by the Jordanian government -- will pay Houston-based Noble Energy and its partners $500 million over the course of fifteen years to supply a power plant at Jordanian industrial facilities by the Dead Sea. At just $33 million per year, the deal is not financially significant, but it may set a huge precedent in terms of fostering regional economic cooperation and establishing a framework for Jordanian energy security. The political challenges are significant, however, particularly following the March 10 shooting of a Jordanian man at an Israeli-controlled West Bank crossing point.
Topic:: Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

49. The Economics of Egypt's Rising Authoritarian Order

Author:: Amr Adly
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Egypt's economy is in crisis as the new military-backed regime seeks to reestablish its authority. Fiscal restructuring and austerity measures are necessary to spur economic recovery, but they may be politically difficult to pass at this time. The new regime, therefore, will have to broaden its base and forge a more inclusive coalition of supporters in order to stabilize Egypt, retain power, and restore economic growth.
Topic:: Security and Economics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt

50. Middle East 2020: Shaped by or Shaper of Global Trends?

Author:: Mathew J. Burrows
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: With new crises sprouting almost on a daily basis in the Middle East, there is increasing interest in knowing the possible medium- and long-term consequences of the cascading developments in the region. This report attempts to think about the alternative futures possible in the Middle East over the next five to ten years. This is a shorter-term forecast than usual, but in the Middle East more deep-seated and structural factors are in flux than in most other regions. A longer-term forecast would allow for more optimism, but would be less useful for decision-makers who not only need a bird's eye view of where developments are headed but also a notion of the pressure points to effect positive change now.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: Middle East

51. The US and Iran: Sanctions, Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman, Bryan Gold, and Chloe Coughlin-Schulte
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: US and Iranian strategic competition is heavily drive by four key factors–the success or failure of sanctions, the im0pact of that competition on the flow of Gulf energy exports, the success or failure of efforts to limit Iran's nuclear options and the broader prospect for arms control, and the prospects for accommodation of regime change. In recent years, the key variable has been ways in which sanctions on Iran have changed US and Iranian competition since the fall of 2011, and helped lead to a tentative set of Iranian agreements with the UN's P5+1--the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, namely United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, and France, plus Germany--in November 2013.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Oil, Regime Change, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany

52. Outward FDI from Israel's Largest MNEs Continues to Rise in 2011

Publication Date:: 04-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Recanati Business School of Tel Aviv University, The Manufacturers Association of Israel, and the Vale Columbia Center on Sustainable International Investment (VCC), a joint center of the Columbia Law School and the Earth Institute at Columbia University in New York, are releasing the results of their fifth annual survey of Israeli multinational enterprises (MNEs) today. The survey is part of the Emerging Market Global Players (EMGP) project, a long-term study of the rapid global expansion of MNEs from emerging markets. The results released today focus on data for the year 2011.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: New York and Middle East

53. The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman, Nicholas S. Yarosh, and Chloe Coughlin-Schulte
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The political dynamics and violence that shape the current series of crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) – and daily events in Bahrain Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Tunisia, Syria, and Yemen – dominate the current course of virtually every aspect of these states including much of the current course of violence and instability in the region. Political dynamics and the current levels of, however, are only part of the story.
Topic:: Political Violence, Democratization, Development, Economics, and Islam
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia

54. Turkey's "Zero Problems" Era in the Balkans

Author:: Mehmet Ugur Ekinci
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: While some observers, referring to recent developments in the Middle East, are questioning whether Turkey's “zero problems with neighbours” doctrine is still in effect, Turkey's relations with the Balkans are enjoying their golden age. Since the mid-2000s, bilateral relations with all governments in the region have been in good terms, social and economic relations have intensified and Turkey's public image has become increasingly positive.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Balkans

55. The Arab World's Education Report Card: School Climate and Citizenship Skills

Author:: Muhammad Faour
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The youth of the Arab world have driven much of the popular upheaval that has overtaken the region in the last year. Calling for fundamental political and economic change, they seek to remake their societies into more open, global players. But if that grassroots momentum is to be solidified, real societal reform must take place.
Topic:: Democratization, Demographics, Economics, Education, Globalization, Regime Change, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

56. Turkey and the Bomb

Author:: Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Though most states that want a nuclear weapon can get one through determined effort, the fact remains that most choose not to proliferate. Turkey is no exception. Not even the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran is likely to push Ankara to develop its own nuclear weapons. The only circumstance where such a scenario would acquire a degree of likelihood is a breakdown in Turkey's security relationship with the United States.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, Turkey, and Middle East

57. Energy Risks in North Africa and the Middle East

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Any estimate of energy risk is highly uncertain. The reality can vary sharply according to national and global economic conditions, politics, war, natural disasters, discoveries of new reserves, advances in technology, unanticipated new regulations and environmental issues, and a host of other factors.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

58. Country Forecast: Global outlook

Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: Three years after the global economy reached its lowest point in three-quarters of a century, the recovery remains incomplete and the outlook uncertain. On March 9th 2009, the capitalisation of Morgan Stanley\'s global stockmarket index fell to US$26trn, nearly 60% below its 2007 peak. Today, the value of the world\'s stockmarkets has yet to return to the pre-crisis level—nor has the confidence of most consumers and businesses. The excesses of the last ten years—the personal debt accumulated early in the last decade and the public debt added during the recession—have saddled many countries with weak economic foundations and little or no resilience to shocks. This has left the US economy, in particular, struggling for a third straight year to lock in faster growth. It has left debt-ravaged Europe in recession and China manoeuvring unsteadily to deflate a bubble. On the brighter side, the global economy will grow again this year and the imbalances that built up over the past decade will continue to unwind. But global growth will be slower this year than last, and a host of risks—from elevated oil prices to war in the Middle East, to the collapse of Europe\'s single currency—will weigh on confidence and reduce spending and investment.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, and Middle East

59. Building a Better Yemen

Author:: Charles Schmitz
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The Yemeni economy is often portrayed as a dire picture of impending disaster, as the country runs out of oil and even more devastatingly of water. Yemen's economic problems are real, but they are not caused by an absolute, irreparable shortage of resources. Rather, it is Yemen's contentious politics and its lack of institutional development that constitute the main obstacle to surmounting present economic difficulties.
Topic:: Political Violence, Development, Economics, Poverty, Natural Resources, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

60. The FY2013 Defense Budget, Sequestration, and the Growing Strategy-Reality Gap

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The US may not face peer threats in the near to mid term, but it faces a wide variety of lesser threats that make maintaining effective military forces, foreign aid, and other national security programs a vital national security interest. The US does need to reshape its national security planning and strategy to do a far better job of allocating resources to meet these threats. It needs to abandon theoretical and conceptual exercises in strategy that do not focus on detailed force plans, manpower plans, procurement plans, and budgets; and use its resources more wisely. The US still dominates world military spending, but it must recognize that maintaining the US economy is a vital national security interest in a world where the growth and development of other nations and regions means that the relative share the US has in the global economy will decline steadily over time, even under the best circumstances. At the same time, US dependence on the security and stability of the global economy will continue to grow indefinitely in the future. Talk of any form of “independence,” including freedom from energy imports, is a dangerous myth. The US cannot maintain and grow its economy without strong military forces and effective diplomatic and aid efforts. US military and national security spending already places a far lower burden on the US economy than during the peaceful periods of the Cold War, and existing spending plans will lower that burden in the future. National security spending is now averaging between 4% and 5% of the GDP -- in spite of the fact the US has been fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan -- versus 6 - 7% during the Cold War.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

61. Security Sector Transformation in the Arab Awakening

Author:: Donald J. Planty
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Arab Awakening opened the door to democratic political change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Security sector reform (SSR) is an integral component of the nascent democratic process in the region. While SSR is a long-term process, it should be a key part of institution building in the new democracies. Democracy requires security institutions that are open, professional, and responsive to public needs. The transitions to democracy are varied in nature and scope. SSR will differ by country and must be tailored to the political realities and specific circumstances of each state. The international community can foster successful SSR processes by calibrating its assistance according to the reform efforts in each country. A general or “one-size-fits-all” approach to SSR will not be successful. A sense of political powerlessness, an unresponsive bureaucracy, a general lack of opportunity, economic stagnation (including high unemployment), and repressive security forces all contributed to the Arab Awakening. As a result of the upheaval, democratic forces in several of the MENA countries are pushing for transparency and accountability in the security services. SSR must be undertaken in a holistic manner, couched within the framework of overall democratic reform and linked to other broad policies such as justice sector reform, evolution of the political process, and economic development. SSR will only be achieved if it is integrated and pursued in unison with these larger processes of democratic change. The international community, especially the United States and the European Union, need to foster democratic developments and, in particular, to support and coordinate SSR.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Economics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

62. Education for Citizenship in the Arab World: Key to the Future

Author:: Marwan Muasher and Muhammad Faour
Publication Date:: 10-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Any romantic notions in the West that the 2011 Arab uprisings could create instantaneous democracy in countries that have succeeded at toppling their leaders are already shattering. In the absence of strong political parties and viable civil society structures in most of the Arab world, these uprisings are proving to be only the first step in a process that will not follow a clear path and will take years to unfold. Much trial and error will take place and the region will experience multiple ups and downs before stable political and economic systems take hold.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Economics, Education, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

63. Saudi Arabia in the New Middle East

Author:: F. Gregory Gause III
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: There is arguably no more unlikely U.S. ally than Saudi Arabia: monarchical, deeply conservative socially, promoter of an austere and intolerant version of Islam, birthplace of Osama bin Laden and fifteen of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers. Consequently, there is no U.S. ally less well understood. Many U.S. policymakers assume that the Saudi regime is fragile, despite its remarkable record of domestic stability in the turbulent Middle East. “It is an unstable country in an unstable region,” one congressional staffer said in July 2011. Yet it is the Arab country least affected in its domestic politics by the Arab upheavals of 2011. Many who think it is unstable domestically also paradoxically attribute enormous power to it, to the extent that they depict it as leading a “counterrevolution” against those upheavals throughout the region. 2 One wonders just how “counterrevolutionary” the Saudis are when they have supported the NATO campaign against Muammar al-Qaddafi, successfully negotiated the transfer of power from Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, and condemned the crackdown on protestors by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, and how powerful they are when they could do little to help their ally Hosni Mubarak in Egypt.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Islam, Oil, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

64. Inward FDI in Israel and its policy context

Author:: Yair Aharoni
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: In the first four decades of its existence, Israel was not successful in attracting inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) despite attempts to do so. In the past two decades, Israel have become a haven for multinational enterprises (MNEs) that have taken advantage of its unique assets – among them a skilled, educated workforce and cutting-edge research-and-development (R) capabilities – by establishing production lines or R centers and acquiring dozens of successful start ups. Israel's IFDI stock sharply increased from US$ 4.5 billion in 1990 to US$ 71.3 billion in 2009. It is expected that IFDI will further accelerate following Israel's accession to the OECD in May 2010 and as more firms from emerging market economies, including China and India, will come to appreciate its characteristics as an ideal locational choice. Israel also weathered the global economic crisis well, even though IFDI declined sharply. Israel actively encourages IFDI, mainly in high technology areas. In 2010, the Government also created special incentives to attract research centers of financial institutions.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, India, and Israel

65. Iran in the shadow of the 2009 presidential elections

Author:: Rouzbeh Parsi
Publication Date:: 04-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: In the past two years the Iranian domestic political scene has undergone a major upheaval where many established norms and institutional frame-works have been abandoned or seriously weakened. A new baseline and sense of normalcy has yet to be established.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, Politics, Insurgency, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

66. The Coming Turkish-Iranian Competition In

Author:: Sean Kane
Publication Date:: 06-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The two rising powers in the Middle East—Turkey and Iran—are neighbors to Iraq, its leading trading partners, and rapidly becoming the most influential external actors inside the country as the U.S. troop withdrawal proceeds. Although there is concern in Washington about bilateral cooperation between Turkey and Iran, their differing visions for the broader Middle East region are particularly evident in Iraq, where a renewal of the historical Ottoman-Persian rivalry in Mesopotamia is likely as the dominant American presence fades. Turkey aims for a robust Iraqi political process in which no single group dominates, sees a strong Iraq as contributing to both its own security and regional stability, and is actively investing in efforts to expand Iraqi oil and gas production to help meet its own energy needs and fulfill its goal of becoming the energy conduit from the Middle East to Europe. Iran prefers a passive neighbor with an explicitly sectarian political architecture that ensures friendly Shiite-led governments; sees a strong Iraq as an inherent obstacle to its own broader influence in the region and, in the nightmare scenario, once again possibly a direct conventional military threat; and looks askance at increased Iraqi hydrocarbon production as possible competition for its own oil exports. Baghdad meanwhile believes that it can become a leader in the Middle East but is still struggling to define an inclusive national identity and develop a foreign policy based on consensus. In its current fractured state, Iraq tends to invites external interference and is subsumed into the wider regional confrontation between the Sunni Arab defenders of the status quo and the “resistance axis” led by Shiite Iran. Turkey has an opening in Iraq because it is somewhat removed from this toxic Arab-Persian divide, welcomes a strong Iraq, and offers the Iraqi economy integration with international markets. Ankara could now allay Iraqi Shiite suspicions that it intends to act as a Sunni power in the country and not allow issues on which Turkish and Iraqi interests deviate to set the tone for their relationship. The U.S. conceptualization of an increased Turkish influence in Iraq as a balance to Iran's is limited and could undermine Turkey's core advantages by steering it towards a counterproductive sectarian approach. A more productive U.S. understanding is of Turkey as a regional power with the greatest alignment of interests in a strong, stable, and selfsufficient country that the Iraqis want and that the Obama administration has articulated as the goal of its Iraq policy. On the regional level, a strong and stable Iraq is a possible pivot for Turkish and Iranian ambitions, enabling Ankara and hindering Tehran. Washington may well have its differences with Turkey's new foreign policy of zero problems with its neighbors, but the Turkish blend of Islam, democracy, and soft power is a far more attractive regional template than the Iranian narrative of Islamic theocracy and hard power resistance. The United States should therefore continue to welcome increased Turkish-Iraqi economic, trade, and energy ties and where possible support their development as a key part of its post-2011 strategy for Iraq and the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Imperialism, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

67. Political Economics: The Challenges of Economic Development in Palestine

Author:: Karam Dana
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Since the Six-Day War and Occupation of 1967, economics, an area of study that affects social and political formulations and transformations, has entered the study of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to a much larger extent: Palestinian workers in Israel, to an underdeveloped infrastructure in the Palestinian territories. More than four decades later, economic challenges continue to play a role in the affairs of the Palestinians: from affecting people's lives and their leadership on the one hand, and the relationship between the Palestinian and Israel on the other. Within Palestinian society itself, the dynamics of state-society relations have demonstrably been affected by economic transformations, but have yet to be fully studied in places of continuous occupation and conflict like the West bank and the Gaza Strip. This paper explores the challenges that have faced developmental attempts in Palestine since the occupation of 1967.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

68. Revolution in the Arab World: The Long View

Author:: William Zartman, Laleh Khalili, Jillian Schwedler, and Gamal Eid
Publication Date:: 10-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: In January and February 2011, populist uprisings toppled the authoritarian governments of Tunisia and Egypt, and similar revolts began to emerge in other Arab states, including Bahrain, Libya, Morocco, Syria, and Yemen. An article in the 18 March 2011 issue of the Chronicle Review by Ursula Lindsey, "The Suddenly New Study of Egypt," addressed how these events had turned the study of persistent authoritarianism in the Arab world on its head. No longer, for example, could scholars point to how Egyptians and other Arabs tend to engage in one of two extremes: political apathy or political violence. Lindsey also suggested that scholars shift their focus away from the power of elites to the strength of ordinary people and grass-roots movements, or retool their scholarship to allow for, in the case of Egypt, more emphasis on groups other than the Muslim Brotherhood as significant sources of opposition.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia

69. Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (II): Yemen between Reform and Revolution

Publication Date:: 03-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Even before the popular wave from Tunisia and Egypt reached Yemen, President Saleh's regime faced daunting challenges. In the north, it is battling the Huthi rebellion, in the south, an ever-growing secessionist movement. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is showing mounting signs of activism. Sanaa's political class is locked in a two-year battle over electoral and constitutional reforms; behind the scenes, a fierce competition for post-Saleh spoils is underway. Economic conditions for average Yemenis are dire and worsening. Now this. There is fear the protest movement could push the country to the brink and unleash broad civil strife. But it also could, and should, be a wake-up call, a catalyst for swift, far-reaching reforms leading to genuine power-sharing and accountable, representative institutions. The opposition, reformist ruling party members and civil society activists will have to work boldly together to make it happen. The international community's role is to promote national dialogue, prioritise political and economic development aid and ensure security aid is not used to suppress opposition.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Egypt, and Tunisia

70. Refugees and IDPs after Conflict: Why They Do Not Go Home

Author:: Patricia Weiss Fagan
Publication Date:: 04-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Programs to return refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their homes after conflict, implemented by national authorities with international support, frequently leave far too many without viable futures. The measures are often inadequate for three reasons: a widely shared but flawed assumption that the need to create a future for returnees is satisfied by restoring them to their prior lives; a lack of long-term engagement by implementing authorities; and a focus on rural reintegration when many refugees and IDPs are returning to urban areas. These arguments are illustrated in four country cases—Bosnia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Burundi. In each case, the places that refugees and IDPs were forced to flee have been greatly reshaped. They often lack security and economic opportunities; governance is weak and services are inadequate. Returnees have made choices about their futures in large part on the basis of these factors. While reclaiming land or receiving compensation for losses is important, the challenge for many returnees is to settle where they can maintain sustainable livelihoods; find peaceful living conditions; have access to health care, education, and employment opportunities; and enjoy full rights of citizenship. This may mean a move from rural to urban areas and a change in the source of income generation that has to be accounted for in the design of reintegration programs. Returning refugees and IDPs should be assisted for a sufficient amount of time to determine which location and livelihood will suit them best. For international organizations, this may involve greater creativity and flexibility in supporting returnees in urban settings. To accommodate inflows of returnees and their general mobility, national and local governments should develop urban planning strategies to manage the growth of their cities, coupled with regional development plans in rural areas that may involve investment in commercial agriculture. Linking rural and urban areas by strengthening government institutions can also provide returnees with more livelihood options and promote development.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Refugee Issues, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Bosnia, Middle East, Balkans, and Burundi

71. Economic Challenges in Post-Conflict Iraq

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Economics are as important to Iraq's stability and political accommodation as security and governance, and they are equally critical to creating a successful strategic partnership between Iraq and the United States. It is far from easy, however, to analyze many of the key factors and trends involved. Iraqi data are weak and sometimes absent. U.S. and Coalition forces generally failed to look in detail at many of Iraq's most serious economic problems, or they issued heavily politicized reports designed to show that Iraqi “reconstruction” had been far more successful than it really was.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

72. The Economic Condition of Displaced Iraqis Living in Jordan: A Study of Vocational Training

Author:: Farah Thalji
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:: The Iraqi War has garnered international attention as a traumatic conflict in many respects. Rising death tolls, expensive military operations, internal fragmentation and civilian suffering have all become hallmarks of the ongoing conflict. This often overshadows the distress of Iraqis scattered to neighboring countries by the war. This report focuses the lens on displaced Iraqis who have fled to the neighboring Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan to seek refuge. Refugees are used as the instrument for measuring the impact of the conflict and its residuals on others in the region. The subsequent goal is to demonstrate the rippling effect of conflict in such a manner that goes beyond the surface to the longer-term effects that are often overlooked by the media in favor of shocking short-term events. One problem Iraqis face in Jordan is economic survival. There is a pervasive attitude that Jordan only harbors wealthy Iraqis. While this stereotype may apply to some Iraqis, it is certainly not a reality for many –particularly considering that seven years have passed since the start of the war and personal funds have been depleting. One of the troubles that Iraqis in Jordan now face is the inability to participate in the labor force due to legal restrictions. With an estimated population of somewhere between 450,000 to 700,000 Iraqis amongst Jordan’s population of 6 million, this poses a serious problem. An assessment of the situation attempts to understand the Iraqi effort for survival by focusing on vocational training and support for displaced Iraqis. The goal of such an effort is to capture the Iraqi attempt to transition into the labor market in Jordan. It also reflects that economic involvement in the Jordanian economy is becoming increasingly necessary as security continues to remain an issue in Iraq and the fear of return persists. Discussing the political and legal as well as the social status of Iraqis in Jordan forms a necessary foundation for the study of their economic situation and the subsequent merit of vocational training programs.2
Topic:: Economics, Refugees, Displacement, and Vocational Training
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Jordan

73. The USA-Turkey Relationship After the 2003 Iraq Crisis

Author:: Şûle Anlar Güneş
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:: Turkey and the USA have been strategic allies since declaration of Truman Doctrine in 1947. This strategic partnership got worse due to the USA‘s politics towards Middle East after 9-11 tragedy and Turkey’s new changing domestic political situation through AKP in 2002. Specifically, 2003 Iraq crisis was milestone to decline the relationship between Turkey and the USA. In spite of deterioration of relationship, Turkey and the USA had to overcome this problem due to security, foreign, and economic concerns of both countries, and the process have advanced as expected. In this article, the US-Turkey relationship will be examined in the contexts of recent Iraq crisis, Turkey’s new approach to foreign policy, NATO, war on terrorism, European Union, and economic concerns in order to comprehend the new era of Turkey-US strategic partnership.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Economics, European Union, Crisis Management, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

74. Why the European Union Needs a 'Broader Middle East' Policy

Author:: Edward Burke, Ana Echagüe, and Richard Youngs
Publication Date:: 12-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: European foreign policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is a highly fragmented construction. Since the mid-1990s the EU's policies with Maghreb and Mashreq countries have been pursued under the rubric of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP), the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) and now the Mediterranean Union. This plethora of highly institutionalised initiatives has been developed with negligible linkage to policy in the rest of the Middle East. Relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council remain low key and strikingly disconnected from the EMP. Contrary to its rhetorical emphasis on supporting regional integration around the world, the EU has failed to build its strategy towards Iran and Iraq into a regional security framework. Even more reproachable, given its credibility and influence in the economic sphere has been the EU's inability to foster regional economic integration between the Mediterranean and the Gulf.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

75. Investment from the GCC and Development in the Mediterranean. The Outlook for EU-GCC Financial and Economic Cooperation in the Mediterranean

Author:: Bénédict de Saint-Laurent
Publication Date:: 12-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Basic questions posed in this study were whether the trend of Gulf involvement in the Mediterranean economies was sustainable, what the specifics of those investments are, and could a triangular cooperation be envisaged? What is clear is that Gulf investors have become major players in the Mediterranean with an investment volume of more than 70 billion Euro in nearly 700 projects since January 2003. The Gulf now seems to have joined Europe as a sustainable second investment pillar. The complementarities between needs and resources of Europe, GCC and Med countries call for the implementation of an integrated co-operation model, similar to the Japan-China-ASEAN triangle.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Middle East, and Arabia

76. Getting Off Lightly? The Impact of the International Financial Crisis on the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Juliane Brach and Markus Loewe
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: The international financial crisis has hit the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), like other developing regions, unexpectedly, during a long phase of above-average growth. In contrast to other parts of the world, however, most MENA developing countries will able to get off lightly if the crisis does not last for too long. In Turkey and Israel, the region's more industrialized countries, different initial conditions apply and the situation is not comparable to the Arab MENA countries.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

77. The Oil Boom in the GCC Countries: Old Challenges, Changing Dynamics

Author:: Ibrahim Saif
Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The recent oil boom (2002 to mid-2008) generated a large volume of revenues for the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia (SA). Estimated at an annual average of U.S. $327 billion over the period 2002– 2006, the revenues more than doubled their average as compared with the preceding five years. The abundant revenues were instrumental in boosting economic growth; and macroeconomic indicators such as growth and investment in the GCC were also robust over the period 2002–2007. On the other hand, other indicators pertinent to the labor market, the structure of the economy, and governance were less positive.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, International Organization, and Oil
Political Geography:: Middle East, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman

78. Gain Seeking in a "Double Security Dilemma": The Case of OPEC

Author:: Ellinor Zeino-Mahmalat
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: The remarkable stability of the cooperation among the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has generally been explained by these members' mutual dependency on high and stable oil revenues. Since the OPEC countries, however, face the double security dilemma of both domestic and external security threats, they are not simply eager to secure (absolute) oil revenues for the sake of domestic stability; they are also sensitive to the (relative) oil revenues of their competing or even conflicting partners. The existing approaches of rational egoism and defensive positionalism have proven to be rather inadequate in explaining this kind of gain-seeking behavior. This paper therefore develops the new theoretical approach of “gain-seeking mentalities,” with the objective of tracing variations in OPEC members' gain-seeking behaviors. Using this approach, the empirical assessment of Iran and Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War and Iraq during the Gulf War of 1990/91 shows the extent to which Iran and Iraq altered their gain-seeking behavior as a result of a changing constellation of threats.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Intelligence, and Oil
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

79. The Gulf as a Global Financial Centre: Growing Opportunities and International Influence

Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: Ambition is high. Just a few years ago, the claim that the Gulf represented an important financial centre, let alone an aspiring Global Financial Centre (GFC), would have been seen as optimistic. However, it should be recalled that in the late 1990s, and even up until 2003, few analysts expected oil prices to move above the $20–30 range–yet by early 2008 oil was trading well above $100 and rising. The GCC economies have approximately tripled in size in just five years and their combined GDP will be well above $1 trillion in 2008, while their external financial wealth in the form of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and foreign exchange reserves alone is more than double this figure. These trends are not, of course, uncorrelated. Nevertheless, it is easy to see the region's comparative advantage from the swing in oil prices, whereas the scope for developing a significant advantage in global finance remains tentative. To develop and mature the Global Financial Centre concept will require considerable effort and nurturing, chiefly by GCC governments, banks and fund managers but including cooperative ventures with leading GFCs and financial services companies.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Arab Countries

80. Multilateralism Beyond Doha

Author:: Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: There is a fundamental shift taking place in the world economy to which the multilateral trading system has failed to adapt. The Doha process focused on issues of limited significance while the burning issues of the day were not even on the negotiating agenda. The paper advances five propositions: the traditional negotiating dynamic, driven by private sector interests largely in the rich countries, is running out of steam; the world economy is moving broadly from conditions of relative abundance to relative scarcity, and so economic security has become a paramount concern for consumers, workers, and ordinary citizens; international economic integration can contribute to enhanced security; addressing these new concerns–relating to food, energy and economic security-requires a wider agenda of multilateral cooperation, involving not just the WTO but other multilateral institutions; and despite shifts in economic power across countries, the commonality of interests and scope for give-and-take on these new issues make multilateral cooperation worth attempting.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Privatization
Political Geography:: Middle East

81. Sectoral Transformations in Neo-Patrimonial Rentier States: Tourism Development and State Policy in Egypt

Author:: Thomas Richter and Christian Steiner
Publication Date:: 11-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: This article challenges claims that liberalising state regulated markets in developing countries may induce lasting economic development. The analysis of the rise of tourism in Egypt during the last three decades suggests that the effects of liberalisation and structural adjustment are constrained by the neo-patrimonial character of the Egyptian political system. Since the decline of oil rent revenues during the 1980s tourism development was the optimal strategy to compensate for the resulting fiscal losses. Increasing tourism revenues have helped in coping with macroeconomic imbalances and in avoiding more costly adjustment of traditional economic sectors. Additionally, they provided the private elite with opportunities to generate large profits. Therefore, sectoral transformations due to economic liberalisation in neo-patrimonial Rentier states should be described as a process, which has led to the diversification of external rent revenues, rather than to a general downsizing of the Rentier character of the economy.
Topic:: Development and Economics
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, Middle East, and Egypt

82. Top Ten Global Economic Challenges - An Assessment of Global Risks and Priorities

Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: The beginning of 2007 offers a conflicting picture of the global economy for those trying to discern trends, challenges and opportunities. Concerns about energy security and climate sustainability are converging — finally bringing consensus in sight on the need for action in the United States. But prospects for breaking the global stalemate are still years away. Though some developing countries are succeeding in bringing hundreds of millions out of poverty, too many are still mired in a doom spiral of conflict, poverty and disease— despite the entry of new philanthropists, advocates and global corporations into the field of development. China's projected 9.6 percent growth rate is sending ripples to the farthest reaches of the planet—creating opportunities but also significant risks. The United States remains in the “goldilocks” zone, but this is premised on continued borrowing from abroad at historically unprecedented rates while many Americans fret about widening inequality and narrowing opportunity. While the United States concentrates on civil war in the Middle East, most leaders in the region are preoccupied with putting an outsized cohort of young people to work and on the road to becoming productive citizens.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Middle East

83. The Economic Costs of the Iraq War: An Appraisal Three Years after the Beginning of the Conflict

Author:: Linda Bilmes and Joseph Stiglitz
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Three years ago, as America was preparing to go to war in Iraq, there were few discussions of the likely costs. When Larry Lindsey, President Bush's economic adviser, suggested that they might reach $200 billion, there was a quick response from the White House: that number was a gross overestimation. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz claim e d that Iraq could “really finance its own reconstruction,” apparently both underestimating what was required and the debt burden facing the country. Lindsey went on to say that “The successful prosecution of the war would be good for the economy.”
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, and Middle East

84. Economic Survey of Turkey, 2006

Publication Date:: 10-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:: Substantial progress in macroeconomic stabilisation and institutional reform has laid a foundation for strong GDP growth. However, the recent inflation shock and turmoil in the financial markets highlight Turkey's on-going vulnerabilities. A further comprehensive programme of structural reform would increase productivity growth, expand the formal sector of the economy and consolidate macroeconomic stability.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

85. Ten Years after: Achievements and Challenges of the Euro-Mediterranean Economic and Financial Partnership

Author:: Juliane Brach
Publication Date:: 12-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: EU and twelve countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) engaged in 1995 in the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) in political, economic and cultural matters with the aim to foster cooperation, stability, and prosperity around the Mediterranean Basin. The Economic and Financial Partnership (EFP) plays a central role in the EMP design and implementation, which is centered on economic and trade integration as a starting point for and an anchor of socioeconomic development in the MENA region. Against this background, this paper reviews the situation in the MENA partner countries and the past performance of the EFP. It analyzes the association agreements, economic cooperation and financial assistance, discusses the major obstacles, and outlines the potential of the EFP to shape the European Neighborhood Policy.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

86. Illusive Reform: Jordan's Stubborn Stability

Author:: Julia Choucair
Publication Date:: 12-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Since independence in 1947, Jordan has shown a remarkable ability to survive as a political entity. Surrounded by regional conflict and starved of resources, it has endured a massive influx of Palestinian refugees and numerous coup attempts. For decades, the Hashemite monarchy has overcome these political and economic storms by weakening institutionalized opposition to its rule and relying on the distribution of benefits and privileges to create a cohesive support base and a security establishment loyal to the existing political order. The regime has been able to sustain this situation by capitalizing on Jordan's geographic centrality. Benefiting from Jordan's image as an oasis of stability in a deeply troubled region, the monarchy has been able to secure a flow of external assistance that has helped counteract the lack of natural resources and maintain domestic political stability. But the balance has always been precarious. The contemporary process of political reform in Jordan must be understood in this context.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Jordan

87. Managing Natural Resource Wealth

Author:: Jill Shankleman
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: This report analyzes the particular challenges of stabilization and reconstruction missions in countries rich in hydrocarbons and minerals and provides lessons learned from the recent experience of such countries as Iraq, Sudan, Angola, Liberia, and Afghanistan. It offers recommendations for the U.S. government and others involved in natural resource–rich countries emerging from conflict and also to the extractive industry companies and banking sectors––that play a critical role in these states. War-torn countries rich in hydrocarbons and minerals face particular problems in the stabilization and reconstruction of their states despite the apparent promise that natural resource wealth holds. Unless deliberate efforts are made to avoid the “resource curses”—corruption, economic instability, conflict over the distribution of resource wealth and control of resource–rich areas—these curses will undermine peace building. Elite groups who receive royalties and taxes paid by extractive industry companies have shown themselves consistently resistant to democratization. Control over natural resources is fundamental to sovereignty. Ultimately, it is the governments and people of resource–rich countries who must put in place the systems that enable resource wealth to support stability and development However, through early and consistent action, the international community can play an important role in helping resource–rich states emerging from conflict manage the wealth that accrues from these resources, and can make proper wealth management a condition for donor assistance. It is essential that international missions and indigenous transitional governments immediately secure effective control of natural resource wealth (physical and monetary) and establish the laws, institutions, and capacity to manage that wealth transparently, accountably, and in ways that support reconstruction. Achieving these goals requires prior planning by relevant U.S. agencies, a willingness to confront vested interests, a consistent approach from the international community and donors, the involvement of civil society, and the deployment of human resources, such as forensic accountants able to “follow the money,” as part of the mission staff. To be successful, the extractive industries and their bankers, the international financial institutions, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) must be brought into this process
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Sudan, Middle East, Liberia, and Angola

88. Iraqi Economic Reconstruction and Development

Author:: Onur Ozlu
Publication Date:: 04-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The US aid effort in Iraq has not accomplished most of its sectoral goals, and more importantly, has not effectively initiated the reconstruction of the country's economy. After three years of struggle, the expenditure of more than $ 20 billion US aid funds, $ 37 billion Development Fund for Iraq (DFI) - UN accumulated from the oil for food program's revenues and the seizure of bank accounts- and death of thousands of US and other coalition soldiers and tens of thousands of Iraqis, Iraq is producing less oil, has less electricity and less water than it did during the Saddam period. After studying the modern Iraqi economic history as a background, this work analyzes why.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Maryland

89. Erez Industrial Estate Pilot Study: An Implementation Plan

Author:: Jocelyn Brooks
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: A previous study by the East West Institute in April 2005 concluded that industrial estates offer promising opportunities for economic rehabilitation, employment regeneration, the development of export-based industries, and provide a focal point for domestic and international investment in the Palestinian Territories.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

90. The Erez and Gaza Industrial Estates: Catalysts for Development

Author:: Aiman Mackie
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The political and economic landscape in the Middle East is changing in ways that would have been hard to imagine months ago. With changes in governments, the near cessation of violence, the more active reengagement of the United States in the peace process, and various positive signals from both sides, including direct meetings between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, the longstanding conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is entering a period of relative optimism. Recent indications are that the Palestinian Authority is ready to work jointly with five parallel working groups being set up by the Government of Israel to address different aspects of the planned disengagement from Gaza, and the Quartet Principals have appointed out- going World Bank President James D. Wolfensohn as Special Envoy for Gaza Disengagement. The Special Envoy is charged with leading, overseeing and coordinating the international community's efforts in support of the disengagement initiative.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

91. Post-Conflict Recovery: Does the Global Economy Work for Peace?

Author:: Tony Addison
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Countries as diverse as Afghanistan, Angola, and Sierra Leone are now attempting to recover from major wars, often amidst continuing insecurity. The challenge is to achieve a broad-based recovery that benefits the majority of people. The economic and social recovery of conflict-affected countries cannot be separated from their interaction with the rest of the world through flows of finance, goods, and people. Unfortunately, the global economy is not working well for peace. Trade reform, in particular, must take account of the need to create better, and non-violent, livelihoods for the world's poor: rich-country protectionism in agriculture hinders broad-based recovery and thereby harms the new international security agenda. Post-conflict economies also need more external finance to support early institutional development and reform, thereby increasing the effectiveness of longer-term aid inflows.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Globalization
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, Sierra Leone, and Angola

92. Explaining Middle Eastern Authoritarianism

Author:: Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Arab political regimes are both unusually undemocratic and unusually stable. A series of nested statistical models are reported to parse competing explanations. The democratic deficit is comprehensible in terms of lack of modernization, British colonial history, neighborhood effects, reliance on taxes for government finance, and the Arab population share. Interpretation of the last variable is problematic: It could point to some antidemocratic aspect of Arab culture (though this appears not to be supported by survey evidence), or it could be a proxy for some unobservable such as investment in institutions of internal repression that may not be culturally determined and instead reflect elite preferences. Hypotheses that did not receive robust support include the presence of oil rents, the status of women, conflict with Israel or other neighbors, or Islam. The odds on liberalizing transitions occurring are low but rising. In this respect the distinction between the interpretation of the Arab ethnic share as an intrinsic cultural marker and as a proxy for some unobservable is important-if the former is correct, then one would expect the likelihood of regime change to rise only gradually over time, whereas if it is the latter, the probabilities may exhibit much greater temporal variability.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

93. What Iraq and Argentina Might Learn from Each Other

Author:: Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Financial collapse usually triggers a flurry of market, academic, and policy innovation. The Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s produced the Brady Bonds and led to the rise of today's emerging markets. In the late 1990s, crises in Pakistan, Ecuador, and Ukraine helped teach the markets how to restructure international sovereign bonds. Crises in Mexico, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and throughout East Asia raised doubts about the international system's ability to manage vast and rapid capital flows, and prompted a big-picture reassessment under the rubric “international financial architecture.” This included most famously the sovereign bankruptcy proposals discussed elsewhere in this volume.
Topic:: Development and Economics
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, East Asia, Brazil, South America, Latin America, and Mexico

94. CATO Institute: Iraq's Odious Debts

Author:: Patricia Adams
Publication Date:: 09-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Most debts created by Saddam Hussein in the name of the Iraqi people would qualify as “odious” according to the international Doctrine of Odious Debts. This legal doctrine holds that debts not used in the public interest are not legally enforceable.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

95. Return International Migration and Geographical Inequality: The Case of Egypt

Author:: Barry McCormick and Jackline Wahba
Publication Date:: 01-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper explores entrepreneurship amongst return migrants, how their business locations and characteristics differ from other businesses, and the implications for rural urban inequality. First, we examine, amongst returnees, the determinants of investment in a project/enterprise. Second, we study the impact of return migration on the characteristics and nature of non-farm small enterprises using a sample of return migrants and non-migrant owners of enterprises. Our data indicate that although the share of return migrants originating in urban areas is almost equal to those from rural areas, and that migrants tend to return to their origin region, urban areas benefit more than rural areas from international savings. The empirical evidence suggests that overseas savings, and the duration of stay overseas, have positive separate effects on the probability of investing in a project/enterprise amongst returnees. Furthermore, returnees from urban-origin are more likely than rural ones to invest in a non-farm enterprise. The findings also indicate that there is a regional bias in the location of firms and jobs created by returnees compared to non-migrants, in favour of the capital city. Thus, overall, the results support a positive impact of return migration on enterprise investment in urban areas driven by the preference of returnees to invest in urban areas.
Topic:: Demographics, Economics, and Migration
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt

96. Africa's Debt Iraq's Debt - Washington's Double Standard

Publication Date:: 04-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:: This week when the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) hold their annual spring meetings in Washington, DC, Africa's debt crisis will hardly appear on their agenda.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

97. Islam, Globalization, and Economic Performance in the Middle East

Author:: Marcus Noland and Howard Pack
Publication Date:: 06-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The Middle East is a demographic time bomb. According to the United Nations Development Program's (UNDP) Arab Human Development Report 2002, the population of the Arab region is expected to increase by around 25 percent between 2000 and 2010 and by 50 to 60 percent by 2020— or by perhaps 150 million people, a figure equivalent to more than two Egypts. Even under the UNDP's more conservative scenario, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates will be the only Arab countries in 2020 with median ages above 30.
Topic:: Demographics, Economics, Globalization, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Kuwait, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates

98. Los Balcanes: Entre el Pasado y el Presente. Una Introducción Históica a los Estudios Balcánicos

Author:: Slobodan Pajovic
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: This working paper deals with the complex, turbulent and contradictory history of the Balkans region. It is argued that the tragic realities confronting the region derive mainly from its asymmetric geopolitical, economic and cultural position, and its high degree of vulnerability and dependence on Western Europe and the Near East. It suggests that it is possible to study the history of the region by examining processes of both internal fragmentation and external subordination. While the paper cannot constitute a complete or systematic study of the Balkans, it presents and overview of the most salient features in the region's historical, politico-economic and cultural development. Two case studies, Yugoslavia and Kosovo, help to highlight the broader trends.
Topic:: Economics, Human Welfare, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Middle East, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Balkans

99. Foreign Policy Strategies in a Globalized World: The Case of Mexico

Author:: Guadalupe González
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: This document analyses the impact of the end of the Cold-War, and the processes of economic and political liberalization on Mexico's foreign policy. The first section identifies the consequences for the so-called intermediate countries of the three most important post-Cold War trends: the emergence of hybrid structure of global power, the wave of globalization, and the growing importance of international institutions. The second section evaluates the explanatory value of three systemic approaches to the study of the foreign policy of intermediate states: systemic-structuralism, middle powers, and pivotal states. In the third section, I evaluate Kahler's alternative approach centered on the interaction between systemic and domestic variables, in particular on the foreign policy consequences of economic liberalization and democratization such as the adoption of external cooperative strategies and the deepening to engagement with international institution. The fourth section describes the main changes that have taken place in Mexico's foreign policy during the 1990s: pragmatism, primacy of economics, closer alignment with the United States, segmented multilateralism, fragmentation of the decision-making process, and new instruments. There are two arguments in this document. First, in contrast to other intermediate liberalizing countries, Mexico's efforts to adapt to the new post-Cold War international system, followed an uneven and partial pattern. While Mexican political leaders pursued the full integration of the country to the international economy, in the security realm they maintain a less than open policy based on the defense of the traditional notion of sovereignty. Mexico's partial adaptation is explained by the different pace of the raid economic reform on the one hand, and the gradual and slow opening of the post-revolutionary political regime, on the other. Second, as Kahler's model predicted, Mexico adopted strategies of cooperation and institutional engagement in order to solve credibility roblems. The need to enhance the credibility of the programs of economic reform pushed the Mexican government to engage actively with economic international institutions.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, Middle East, North America, and Mexico

100. Hidden Costs of War

Author:: William D. Hartung
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:: The Bush administration's war on terrorism and its proposed military intervention in Iraq have sparked the steepest increases in military and security spending in two decades. Since September 11, 2001, the federal government has approved over $110 billion in increased military spending and military aid. Spending on national defense is slated to reach $399 billion in the Fiscal Year 2004 budget, and to rise to over $500 billion annually by the end of this decade. These vast sums do not include the costs of the ongoing war in Afghanistan or a war with Iraq. Steven Kosiak of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments estimates that only 5 to 10 percent of the Fiscal Year 2003 Pentagon budget is being set aside for anti-terror activities and homeland security.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Government, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Middle East

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS