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82. Iraq After the Election: Meeting the Challenges of 2010
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Paralysis by democracy : lack of national unity government Lack of government effectiveness and capacity at every level Remnants of insurgency and possible revival Sectarian and ethnic challenges Budget crisis, crippled economy, loss of foreign aid Halt in progress in developing Iraqi security forces Coming US withdrawal Uncertain neighbors
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
83. Dialoguing Partnerships: An analysis of the dialogue assumptions of the Danish Partnership for Dialogue and Reform
- Author:
- Marie-Louise Koch Wegter and Karina Pultz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- In 2003, the Danish government launched the Partnership for Dialogue and Reform (PDR) with the dual objective of 1) establishing a basis for improved dialogue, understanding and cooperation between Denmark and the Arab region; and 2) supporting existing local reform processes in the Middle East and North Africa. With the first objective, which is the focus of this study, PDR was intended to demonstrate the trivialization of Huntington's thesis of a clash of civilizations that Al Qaeda, only few years before, had brought back to the limelight of international politics and endeavoured to prove. PDR was to show populations in Europe and the Arab world that there was indeed a strong, shared agenda between the so-called West and the mother-region of the Islamic world and that mutual misconceptions and prejudice could be overcome through the joined pursuit of this agenda of progress.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Arabia, Denmark, and North Africa
84. Combating Terrorism in Yemen Through the Committee for Religious Dialogue
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Yemen's Committee for Religious Dialogue was established in September 2002. It was an innovative and timely step undertaken by the Yemeni Government towards terrorist rehabilitation. This report seeks to document the lessons learnt from the ICPVTR delegation's visit to Yemen from 17 to 21 July 2010. The visit sought to get an in-depth understanding of the rehabilitation efforts by the Religious Dialogue Committee that was founded by the Minister of Endowment and Guidance of Yemen, Judge Hamoud Al-Hitar. In addition, the visit also aimed at understanding the role of other Yemeni agencies in their efforts to combating terrorism.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia
85. Tentative Jihad: Syria's Fundamentalist Opposition
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Prematurely and exaggeratedly highlighted by the regime, belatedly and reluctantly acknowledged by the opposition, the presence of a powerful Salafi strand among Syria's rebels has become irrefutable. That is worrisome, but forms only part of a complex picture. To begin, not all Salafis are alike; the concept covers a gamut ranging from mainstream to extreme. Secondly, present-day Syria offers Salafis hospitable terrain – violence and sectarianism; disenchantment with the West, secular leaders and pragmatic Islamic figures; as well as access to Gulf Arab funding and jihadi military knowhow – but also adverse conditions, including a moderate Islamic tradition, pluralistic confessional make-up, and widespread fear of the kind of sectarian civil war that engulfed two neighbours. Thirdly, failure of the armed push this past summer caused a backlash against Salafi groups that grabbed headlines during the fighting.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
86. Iraq, its Neighbors, and the Obama Administration: Syrian and Saudi Perspectives
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The top concern for both Riyadh and Damascus remains blowback from Iraq: the ascendance of ethnic and sectarian identity and the spread of Islamist militancy. The need to contain this threat is the dominant force that shapes their relations with Iraq. Both Syria and Saudi Arabia have a vital interest in ensuring that Iraq's emerging political order is inclusive of Sunni Arab Iraqis, who have not yet been fully incorporated into Iraqi institutions. Syria and Saudi Arabia do not look at Iraq in isolation, nor do they assign it top priority among their foreign policy concerns. For them, Iraq is merely one element in a comprehensive view encompassing other regional players (including the U.S. and Iran) and other regional crises, particularly the Arab-Israeli conflict. Lingering resentment and bitterness toward Washington is now mixed with intense curiosity and modest optimism about President Barack Obama. Saudis still bristle when recalling how the Bush Administration sidelined Riyadh on Iraqi matters; as do Syrians, who believe the previous administration was intent on isolating and undermining Damascus. Iraq remains very much isolated in its neighborhood. Recent Progress on regional cooperation notwithstanding, these two neighbors are still focused more on containment than engagement.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
87. American Decision Making and the 1967 Arab-Israeli Conflict
- Author:
- Matthew J. Sheiffer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
- Abstract:
- It is become common to argue that a special relationship exists between the United States and Israel and that this relationship explains unconditional American support for Israeli policies. These arguments generally focus on the period after the 1967 war. This makes examination of the period immediately before this time especially useful for understanding the nature of American relations with Israel. If this period marks the beginning of a special relationship, then there should be initial indicators of that relationship and its impact on the policy making process. In 1967, American policy was initially designed to accomplish the relatively modest goal of preventing an Israeli preemptive attack while building support for a multilateral plan to reopen the Gulf of Aqaba. Yet, the United States ultimately failed to achieve either objective. Given the potential danger of war to American interests, a strategic analysis of this case might predict active and vigorous efforts, using all aspects of American power, to prevent conflict. The puzzle is why this did not occur. By examining a purely systemic explanation for American actions in 1967, this paper will explore the complexities and tensions in the United States-Israel relationship in 1967 and investigate the nature through which domestic politics and decision making factors influence American foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, and Arabia
88. Intent: Ius In Bello Norms in Just War Theory The Case of the War in Gaza in 2009
- Author:
- Howard Adelman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
- Abstract:
- “I am sure they (the IDF soldiers) committed this crime.” I read these words just after I had finished the first draft of this paper on 1 February 2009. Oakland Ross, the Toronto Star journalist, was quoting Dr. Ezzeldeen Abu al-Aish who had trained at the Soroka hospital in Beersheba and the Tel Hashomer hospital in Tel Aviv. The interview was held at the latter Israeli hospital where another daughter was being treated for her injuries after the IDF opened the Ezer crossing to Gaza in a rare exception and allowed a Palestinian ambulance to meet up with an Israeli ambulance so the injured child could be transferred by IDF helicopter to the hospital. Dr. Abu al-Aish, a gynaecologist at Gaza's main Shifa Hospital, was a peace activist; his children attended peace camps with Israeli children. During the war, he had been heard frequently on Israel's Channel 10 TV station reporting in fluent Hebrew by cell phone via his friend, the Israeli journalist, Shlomi Eldar, to Israelis on the health problems resulting from the war that he had been witnessing in Gaza from his top floor apartment of a five-storey apartment building on Salahadin Street at the corner of Zino Rd. in Jebaliya just north of Gaza City. On Friday, 16 January 2009 less than 36 hours before the ceasefire went into effect in Gaza on Sunday, 18 January 2009, he was on the air when two shells from an Israeli tank parked a block away ploughed through his apartment and killed three of his daughters. 22-year-old Bisan, 15-year-old Mayer, 14-year old Ayan, and his 14-year-old niece, Nour Abu al- Aish.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza
89. Dysfunction and Decline: Lessons Learned From Inside al-Qa'ida in Iraq
- Author:
- Brian Fishman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- Al-Qa`ida in Iraq (AQI) is a shadow of its former self, primarily because broad sectors of Iraq's Sunni population rejected it after more than three years of active and tacit cooperation. Anger over AQI's brutal radicalism infused the Sunni backlash against jihadists, but AQI also made two fundamental strategic overreaches that exacerbated its alienation from Sunnis in Iraq. First, it incited a sectarian backlash from Iraqi Shi'a without the means to defend Iraq's Sunnis from the onslaught it provoked. Second, AQI created a formal political entity, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), to dominate Iraq after a U.S. withdrawal without adequate support from Iraq's Sunni population.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
90. Gaza's Unfinished Business
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Israel-Hamas war has ended but none of the factors that triggered it have been addressed. Three months after unilateral ceasefires, Gaza's crossings are largely shut; reconstruction and rehabilitation have yet to begin; rockets periodically are fired into Israel; weapons smuggling persists; Corporal Shalit remains captive; and Palestinians are deeply divided. It is not as if the war changed nothing. Many hundreds lost their lives, tens of thousands their livelihood and a new political landscape has emerged. But the war changed nothing for the better. The status quo is unsustainable, and Gaza once again is an explosion waiting to happen. Genuine Palestinian reconciliation and a fully satisfactory arrangement in Gaza may not be on the cards, but lesser steps may be feasible to lessen the risk of escalation, address Gaza's most pressing needs and achieve some inter-Palestinian understanding. That would take far greater flexibility from local actors – and far greater political courage from outside ones.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza
91. Cyprus: Reunification or Partition?
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Three decades of efforts to reunify Cyprus are about to end, leaving a stark choice ahead between a hostile, de facto partition of the island and a collaborative federation between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities living in two constituent states. Most actors agree that the window of opportunity for this bicommunal, bizonal settlement will close by April 2010, the date of the next Turkish Cypriot elections, when the pro-settlement leader risks losing his office to a more hardline candidate. If no accord is reached by then, it will be the fourth major set of UN-facilitated peace talks to fail, and there is a widespread feeling that if the current like-minded, pro-solution Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders cannot compromise on a federal solution, nobody can. To avoid the heavy costs this would entail for all concerned, the two leaders should stand shoulder to shoulder to overcome domestic cynicism and complete the talks, Turkey and Greece must break taboos preventing full communication with both sides on the island, and European Union (EU) states must rapidly engage in support of the process to avoid the potential for future instability if they complacently accept continuation of the dispute. A real chance still exists in 2009-2010 to end.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
92. The Limits of Institutional Engineering: Lessons from Iraq
- Author:
- David Waldner
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Post-conflict, post-totalitarian societies like Iraq possess many economic, political, social, and cultural characteristics that are not conducive to democratic governance. A central pillar of democracy promotion is that judicious institutional engineering—crafting new institutions and other elements outlining the democratic rules of the game—can overcome these obstacles and engender stable democracies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Government, Regime Change, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
93. Mapping Peace between Syria and Israel
- Author:
- Frederic C. Hof
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Syrian-Israeli “proximity” peace talks orchestrated by Turkey in 2008 revived a long-dormant track of the Arab-Israeli peace process. Although the talks were sus¬pended because of Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip, Israeli-Syrian peace might well facilitate a Palestinian state at peace with Israel.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
94. Islamic Peacemaking Since 9/11
- Author:
- David Smock and Qamar-ul Huda
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Muslims in general and Muslim leaders particularly have often been severely criticized for not more energetically condemning the violent acts of Muslim extremists. Violent extremists are on one edge of the Muslim community. They are counter-balanced by a growing movement of Muslim peacemakers.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
95. Reclaiming Israeli-Syrian Talks
- Author:
- Ufuk Ulutaş
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The Israeli-Syrian track has been an important component of the Arab-Israeli peace talks due to its integral role in reaching comprehensive peace in the Middle East. The latest round of indirect peace talks between Israel and Syria was initiated under the sponsorship of Turkey on May 21, 2008, and by the end of 2008 both sides were ready to start the direct talks. However, in protest of Israeli aerial and ground offensive in Gaza in December 2008, Syria halted the indirect talks with Israel. Several factors, including the lack of American endorsement; Olmert's weak prospect in Israel due to the ongoing corruption investigation; approaching early elections, and the rise of rightist parties in Israel, topped by the Israeli offensive in Gaza, rendered the conciliation efforts futile.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Gaza, and Syria
96. The Tragedy of Palestinian Divisions (Interview with Rashid Khalidi)
- Author:
- Rashid Khalidi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- A leading expert on Palestinian affairs, Rashid Khalidi, says it is crucial for the Palestinian rivals, Hamas, in Gaza, and Fatah, in the West Bank, to reconcile and create a unified negotiating position with Israel. "This is not something that's impossible," he says. "Fatah and Hamas have agreed three times in the past, only to have those agreements collapse." Khalidi also urges the Obama administration to change its policy of isolating Hamas, which he says is counterproductive to the Mideast peace mission it has vowed to pursue. Khalidi says, despite his frustration, he has not given up on Obama's peace efforts. "I don't think that the moment has entirely passed when something can be done," he says. "I do not believe that it is too late to bring about a two-state solution."
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, Gaza, and Egypt
97. Failing Gaza: No rebuilding, no recovery, no more excuses
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- A year after Israel launched its Operation Cast Lead military offensive on Gaza, on 27 December 2008, little of the extensive damage it caused to homes, civilian infrastructure, public services, farms and businesses has been repaired. As thousands of families still come to terms with loss or injury of their loved ones, they are being prevented from rebuilding their shattered society.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, War, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
98. Bush, Clausewitz, and the Grand Strategic Imperative: Keeping Political Ends Primary
- Author:
- Bryan Groves
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
- Abstract:
- As President George W. Bush relinquishes the reigns as Commander-in-Chief to President Barak Obama, it is fitting to reflect on how the country will remember President Bush in years to come. Whether or not one agrees with his decision to commit U.S. forces to military action against Saddam Hussein and his Ba'ath Party regime in Iraq, it is clear that Bush's legacy will largly be determined by how Iraq turns out--whether as a stable, free, and peace-loving democracy or something short of that. There is certainly plenty of room for continued improvement in the conditions on the ground and ample time for the political, security, and economic situation to yet deteriorate. Yet, since "The Surge" and the change in U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Iraq, developments in Iraq have taken a fundamentally and undeniably positive turn.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
99. Engaging Syria? U.S. Constraints and Opportunities
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Candidate Obama pledged that his Middle East policy would include re-engagement with Syria; President Obama will find that the past is not easily overcome. The reasons behind his vow remain pertinent. Syria holds important cards in Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine, is Iran's most important Arab ally and has substantial influence over Hamas and Hizbollah. There are indications of potential common ground on which to build, from resuming Israeli-Syrian negotiations, to consolidating progress in Iraq to blunting the rise of jihadi militancy and sectarianism. But significant obstacles to healthy, mutually beneficial relations remain, along with a legacy of estrangement and distrust. They dictate the need for a prudent approach that seeks first to rebuild ties and restore confidence. It will be critical to reassure Damascus that the U.S. is interested in improving relations and resolving the Israeli-Arab conflict, not in regime change. It is also equally critical not to compromise on core principles such as Lebanon's sovereignty or the integrity of the international tribunal investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
100. Nurturing Instability: Lebanon's Palestinian Refugee Camps
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The vast Palestinian refugee population is routinely forgotten and ignored in much of the Middle East. Not so in Lebanon. Unlike in other host countries, the refugee question remains at the heart of politics, a recurrent source of passionate debate and occasional trigger of violence. The Palestinian presence was a catalyst of the 1975-1990 civil war, Israel's 1982 invasion and Syrian efforts to bring the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) to heel. Virtually nothing has been done since to genuinely address the problem. Marginalised, deprived of basic political and economic rights, trapped in the camps, bereft of realistic prospects, heavily armed and standing atop multiple fault lines–inter-Lebanese, inter-Palestinian and inter-Arab–the refugee population constitutes a time bomb. Until the Arab-Israeli conflict is resolved, a comprehensive approach is required that clarifies the Palestinians' status, formally excludes their permanent settlement in Lebanon, significantly improves their living conditions and, through better Lebanese-Palestinian and inter-Palestinian coordination, enhances camp management.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Post Colonialism, Sovereignty, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia