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  • Author: Toby Archer
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The debate on the invasion of Iraq revolved around so-called “Weapons of Mass Destruction” (WMD). Thousands of lives were lost, hundreds of billions of dollars spent, alliances fractured, and international relations thrown into turmoil. The debates raged over whether WMD were there or not; whether the UN inspectors should have more time to find them or not; whether Iraq having or seeking WMD justified invasion or not, amongst other issues. There were a myriad of differing positions on the value of the war, but the idea that WMD are a distinct and special class of weapons has remained essentially uncontested.
  • Topic: Politics, United Nations, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Thomas Pickering, James Schlesinger
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: This memorandum focuses on key challenges in the postwar period in Iraq. It supplements the March 12, 2003, report, Iraq: The Day After, prepared by the Independent Task Force on Post-Conflict Iraq and sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations. That report contained some 30 recommendations for U.S. postwar policy in Iraq. While some of the Task Force's recommendations addressed contingencies that did not occur (such as the use of weapons of mass destruction by Iraqi forces or large-scale refugee flight), the bulk of the recommendations remain applicable some three months after the release of the initial report. This supplement highlights a few key areas of continuing concern that we believe require attention by the administration.
  • Topic: Development, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Thomas R. Pickering, James R. Schlesinger
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: If the United States goes to war and removes the regime of Saddam Hussein, American interests will demand an extraordinary commitment of U.S. financial and personnel resources to postconflict transitional assistance and reconstruction. These interests include eliminating Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD); ending Iraqi contacts, whether limited or extensive, with international terrorist organizations; ensuring that a post-transition Iraqi government can maintain the country's territorial integrity and independence while contributing to regional stability; and offering the people of Iraq a future in which they have a meaningful voice in the vital decisions that impact their lives.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Economics, Human Rights
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, America, Middle East
  • Author: Tanya Salem
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The refugee question is at the core of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Palestinians were first displaced as a direct consequence of the 1948 war and its aftermath. Twenty years later, another wave of Palestinian refugees was created as a consequence of the war during which Israel occupied the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Palestine, Arabia
  • Author: Shira Kamm
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The Arab minority in Israel are in a unique position to contribute to the resolution of the Middle East conflict and stabilise relations between the different nations and countries in the region. This paper reviews the history of the Arab minority in Israel and reports on their legal, socio-economic and political status. It examines relations between the Arab minority and the Jewish majority, the Israeli government and the rest of the Palestinian people. On the basis of the review, this paper makes recommendations that aim to improve the situation of the Arab minority, strengthen the dialogue between the Arab minority and Jewish majority in Israel, and enable the Arab minority to act as a mediator in the Middle East peace process.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Arabia
  • Author: Gershon Baskin, Sharon Rosenberg
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: 'Good fences make good neighbours' wrote the poet Robert Frost. Israel and Palestine are certainly not good neighbours and the question that arises is will a fence between Israel and Palestine turn them into 'good neighbours'. This paper deals with the Israeli decision to construct a fence that will divide Israel and the West Bank. Almost all public debate of the wall in Israel has been limited to the security aspects. In light of the success enjoyed so far by the wall or fence around the Gaza Strip in preventing suicide bombers from getting through, the defence for needing a similar wall around the West Bank seems like an easy task.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia
  • Author: Paul Brenton, Miriam Manchin
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The economic prospects of the Mediterranean countries are currently constrained by the lack of ambition in their relationships with each other and with their major export market, the EU. These economic relationships are limited by a lack of coverage (agriculture and services are effectively excluded), by a lack of depth (substantial technical barriers to trade remain due to differences in regulatory requirements and the need to duplicate testing and conformity assessment when selling in overseas markets), and they are limited by rules (restrictive rules of origin and lack of cumulation limit effective market access). In addition, the rest of Europe, including Turkey, is integrating at a faster pace to create a Wider European Economic Space. If nothing is done to invigorate the integration process in the Mediterranean, then the region will fall (further) behind relative to other regions on the periphery of the EU, such as the Balkans and Russia and the Ukraine.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, Balkans
  • Author: Eric Philippart
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Many things have changed since the launch of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP). Despite the virtual collapse of the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP), the Partnership has survived, has slowly moved forward on many fronts and seems to be gathering pace on the economic side. This working paper aims at presenting the new contours of the Partnership, as well as evaluating its scope of action, logic of intervention, organisational setting and policy output from 1995-2003. A brief mid-term outlook is offered by way of conclusion.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Middle East
  • Author: Theodoros Koutroubas
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The paper discusses the relation between religion and politics in the Southern Mediterranean and its consequences for the democratisation and peaceful co-existence of the different confessional communities of the region. Its aims are to draw attention to the mechanisms responsible for the perpetuation of an "umbilical cord" between religious and political discourse in the region, to highlight the dangers this could mean for Europe's multicultural society model and to propose secularisation and inter-religious dialogue as a tool for the acceleration of the democratisation process.
  • Topic: Democratization, Politics, Religion
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Author: Michael Emerson, Nathalie Tocci
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The Quartet was born at a meeting of foreign ministers in Madrid in April 2002, in response to Israeli army incursions into the Palestinian territories and in an attempt to give a fresh impetus to Western efforts to revive the lapsed Middle East peace process. The Quartet consists of the EU, Russia, the US and the United Nations. Given the relative passivity of the Russian and UN participants, the Quartet is effectively being driven by the US and the EU. While not yet successful in re-activating the peace process, it confirms in principle for the EU for the first time since the end of the Clinton period that the peace process is no longer the exclusive domain of the US, and that the US appears to welcome a more active European role as a political player, rather than just a payer of aid.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, United Nations
  • Author: Alfred Tovias
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The nature of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership will change with the Enlargement of the EU to include 13 additional members since all Mediterranean non-Arab countries will be in the EU but Israel. Israel will be obliged to revise its relations with the EU. The paper explores some possible policy options open to Israel. After discarding a continuation of Israel's present status in the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, a second policy option gauges advantages and disadvantages for Israel of obtaining membership in the European Economic Area, i.e. full economic integration without political integration in the EU. Taking into consideration quantum political changes which have taken place in and around the EU, as well as in the Middle East, a third Israeli policy option postulates EU membership, so as not to be left behind and which would bring a "new vision" for Israel, once peace with its neighbours is in the offing, allowing for a complete change of the present terms of reference.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Ayla GÖL
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Australian National University Department of International Relations
  • Abstract: This paper critically examines the 'admittance' of the Ottoman Empire as the first non-European and non-Christian state into European international society, challenges the idea that international society had a universal character, and explores how the Empire encountered and adapted to the requirements of this society. There are two premises to explore. First, the Empire was never accepted as an equal member of the European society of states. Second, the Ottoman Empire's desire to enter European international society initiated its modernisation, which gradually led to the emergence of Turkish nationalism in the twentieth century. The first part of this paper deals with the 'otherness' of the Ottoman Empire within European international society. The second part explains the paradoxical character of Ottoman–European relations, which initiated the Empire's modernisation. The last part explores the emergence of Turkish nationalism in relation to the policies of Ottoman modernisation that brought the transition from an Islamic empire into a modern secular nation-state. It concludes by questioning whether or not the modern Turkish state is considered a European member of international society.
  • Topic: International Relations, Nationalism
  • Political Geography: Europe, Turkey, Middle East
  • Author: Deborah West
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: The function of narratives was discussed at great length. It was suggested that in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, each side's narrative is rooted in fear and insecurity, albeit for different reasons. Each side fears destruction, and, in another sense, each side fears peace. If peace comes, each side will have to reorganize it- self. This process is difficult because it is psychologically easier to organize against a clearly defined opposing force than without one. In order to move be- yond the traditional opposition, each side must recognize and legitimize the other side's fears as well as its own.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Shibley Telhami
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: Under the sponsorship of the Sadat Chair for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, Shibley Telhami prepared a public opinion survey for Zogby International, which interviewed 2,620 men and women in Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Jordan. The survey was conducted between February 19 and March 11. It focuses on perceptions of the United States in specific political scenarios and on views of United States policy abroad. Previous polls done by Shibley Telhami and by Zogby International in the Middle East showed that neither United States policy nor the United States was viewed favorably.
  • Topic: Security, Religion
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco
  • Author: Thomas Carothers
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: As part of the changed U.S. geostrategic outlook arising from the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks against the United States, the Bush administration is giving greatly heightened attention to the issue of promoting democracy in the Middle East. Although a policy of coercive regime change has been applied in Iraq, in most of the region the administration is pursuing a more gradualist model of political change that emphasizes diplomatic pressure and democracy-related aid.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Daniel Brumberg
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: No American administration has talked more about democracy in the Middle East than the Bush administration. The president and his advisors have spoken optimistically about a post-Saddam democracy in Iraq, one that might eventually become a veritable light to other Arab nations. This grand vision assumes that sooner or later, advocates of democracy throughout the Middle East will demand the same freedoms and rights that Iraqis are now claiming. Yet, however inspiring this vision appears, the actual reform plan that the administration has thus far set out is unlikely to produce radical changes in the Arab world. Regardless of how dramatic the change in Baghdad is, when it comes to our friends in Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, and Yemen, the administration's reform plan points to evolution rather than revolution.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, Egypt
  • Author: Marina Ottaway
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: Since early last year, the Bush administration has paid unaccustomed attention to the issue of democracy in the Middle East. Following September 11, many U. S. officials have worried that the authoritarianism of most Arab regimes has bred frustration in their countries, and this frustration has in turn favored the growth of terrorist organizations. U.S. discussions about the need for democracy in the Middle East have triggered a strong negative reaction by Arab commentators and journalists, including in discussions of democracy in the Arab press. However, very little of this writing has dealt with the problem of democracy in the real sense—that is, with the issue of how Arab governments relate to their citizens now and how they should relate to their citizens in the future. Instead, Arab commentators have treated democracy as a foreign policy issue, asking why the United States is suddenly discussing democracy in the Arab world and what true intentions it is trying to hide behind the smoke screen of democracy talk. The debate in the Arab press reveals some of the obstacles that the United States faces as it attempts to define its new pro-democracy role in the Middle East.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Democratization
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: George Perkovich, Joseph Cirincione, Jessica T. Mathews
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: American televisions are filled with war rooms, countdowns, deadlines, and showdowns with Iraq. The almost minute by minute coverage distorts public understanding of how inspections work and creates a false sense of the inevitability of war. No decision has in fact been made. Within the administration some indeed intend the buildup as the prelude to war while for others it presents the credible threat of war that is necessary to compel Iraq's disarmament through inspections.
  • Topic: Democratization
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, America, Middle East
  • Author: Charles V. Peña
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: President Bush asserts that U.S. military action against Iraq was justified because Saddam Hussein was in material breach of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1441. But even if Iraq was in violation of a UN resolution, the U.S. military does not exist to enforce UN mandates. It exists to defend the United States: its territorial integrity and national sovereignty, the population, and the liberties that underlie the American way of life. So whether Iraq was in violation of Resolution 1441 is irrelevant. The real question is whether Iraq represented a direct and imminent threat to the United States that could not otherwise be deterred. If that was the case, then preemptive self-defense, like Israel's military action against Egypt, Syria, Jordan, and Iraq in the 1967 Six Day War, would have been warranted. And if Iraq was not a threat, especially in terms of aiding and abetting Al Qaeda, then the United States fought a needless war against a phantom menace.
  • Topic: War
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Middle East, United Nations, Syria, Egypt, Jordan
  • Author: Leon T. Hadar
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: The war in Iraq has created tensions between the United States and some of its leading allies in Europe and exposed a deep diplomatic rift between the traditional transatlantic security partners. The controversy over Iraq has also ignited strong anti-American sentiments and threatened international cooperation in the war against Al Qaeda.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Europe, Middle East
  • Author: Christopher Preble
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: Donald Rumsfeld's announcement that U.S. troops will be removed from Saudi Arabia represents a significant and welcome change in U.S. policy toward the Persian Gulf. This wise decision to shift U.S. forces out of the kingdom should be only the first of several steps to substantially reduce the American military presence in the region. In addition to the removal of troops from Saudi Arabia, U.S. forces should be withdrawn from other Gulf states, including Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, and the U.S. Navy should terminate its long-standing policy of deploying a carrier battle group in the Persian Gulf.
  • Topic: Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia
  • Author: W. Thomas Dillard, Stephen R. Johnson, Timothy Lynch
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: The grand jury is perhaps the most mysterious institution in the American criminal justice system. While most people are generally familiar with the function of the police officer, the prosecutor, the defense lawyer, the judge, and the trial jury, few have any idea about what the grand jury is supposed to do and its day-to-day operation. That ignorance largely explains how some over-reaching prosecutors have been able to pervert the grand jury, whose original purpose was to check prosecutorial power, into an inquisitorial bulldozer that enhances the power of government and now runs roughshod over the constitutional rights of citizens.
  • Topic: Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Middle East
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: Few political actors in the Middle East have seen their environment as thoroughly affected by recent events in the region as Hizbollah, the Lebanese political-military organisation that first came on the scene in the mid-1980s. In U.S. political circles, calls for action against Hizbollah, which is accused of global terrorist activity, are heard increasingly. With the ouster of Saddam Hussein's regime, the U.S. has upped its pressure on Syria and Iran - Hizbollah's two most powerful patrons. Meanwhile, Israel has made clear it will not tolerate indefinitely the organisation's armed presence on its northern border. Within Lebanon itself, weariness with Hizbollah and questions about its future role are being raised with surprising candour.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Lebanon, Syria
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: Eight weeks after victoriously entering Baghdad, American forces are in a race against the clock. If they are unable to restore both personal security and public services and establish a better rapport with Iraqis before the blistering heat of summer sets in, there is a genuine risk that serious trouble will break out. That would make it difficult for genuine political reforms to take hold, and the political liberation from the Saddam Hussein dictatorship would then become for a majority of the country's citizens a true foreign occupation. With all eyes in the Middle East focused on Iraq, the coming weeks and months will be critical for shaping regional perceptions of the U.S. as well.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Democratization, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, Arabia, Arab Countries
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: After several false starts, the Middle East diplomatic Quartet (composed of the U.S., the EU, the Russian Federation and the Office of the Secretary General of the UN) finally put its Roadmap to Israeli-Palestinian peace on the table on 30 April 2003. However, although the document has received widespread international endorsement, there is also widespread scepticism about its contents, about the willingness of the parties to implement its provisions and indeed of its sponsors to maintain allegiance to them.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Eli Jellenc
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Defense Information
  • Abstract: For the most “official” figures: As of July 21, the Department of Defense's “Defend America” site acknowledges the following fatalities. (Note: the DoD's figures lag behind most major news sources by a few days but details tend to be more accurate overall)
  • Topic: Demographics, Human Welfare, War
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: There are major uncertainties about the military outcomes and political ramifications of an attack on Iraq. Really three sequential sets of scenarios: The prelude to war and the different ways in which war can occur. The actual process of conflict. The post-conflict occupation of Iraq and the way in which an independent Iraqi regime emerges.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: William J. Burns
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: Good morning. I deeply appreciate the opportunity to join you today to honor the legacy of one of the truly great statesmen in American -- and transatlantic -- history, General George C. Marshall. The legacy of General Marshall has touched my own life in several ways over the years. While I am sure he will not remember this, the last time General Meyer and I shared a stage together was thirty years ago, when he presented me an award at my high school in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, and spoke to all of us impressionable seventeen year olds about the selfless example of public service offered by George Marshall. Several years later, I studied as a Marshall Scholar at Oxford University, the direct beneficiary of a program established by the British Government in gratitude for General Marshall's contributions. While the Marshall Scholarship Fund has survived the minor infamy of its award to me, it had a profound effect on my life, and I'm pleased to be here today in part to honor that gift. I have also had the profound good fortune, both personally and professionally, to work for a number of years for Secretary Powell, whose own remarkable career you will honor this evening as a continuation of the legacy of George Marshall.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Middle East, North Africa
  • Author: Tamara Makarenko
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
  • Abstract: Recent indications point to an increased risk of systematic attacks against the world's petroleum supply chain, particularly in South Asia and the Middle East. Tamara Makarenko examines the trends in terrorist attacks on the energy sector.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: South Asia, Middle East
  • Author: Catherine Boone, Henry Clement
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: This study underscores the strategic role —both political and economic— of banking sector reform in the overall pursuit of economic development and democratization. It compares trajectories of banking sector reform in Middle Eastern and African countries that have remained on the margins of the new global economy. A close look shows that there governments' willingness to embrace reform has differed across contexts, as has the extent and pace of reform. Meanwhile, the effects of reform have also been very uneven. We model this variation in reform trajectories and its outcomes, propose a theoretical explanation for it, and use a set of case studies to illustrate the contrasts and causal dynamics that we have identified. Our main claim is that structural features of national political economies go far in defining actual trajectories of banking sector reform and liberalization. Structural features of national political economies that we define as key are the strength of indigenous private sector, and how it is linked to the state and foreign capital. We propose a typology of banking structure and reform trajectories and use case studies from the Middle East and Africa to illustrate variation in the politics of banking sector reform.
  • Topic: Development, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Middle East, Canada, North America, Mexico
  • Author: Slobodan Pajovic
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: This working paper deals with the complex, turbulent and contradictory history of the Balkans region. It is argued that the tragic realities confronting the region derive mainly from its asymmetric geopolitical, economic and cultural position, and its high degree of vulnerability and dependence on Western Europe and the Near East. It suggests that it is possible to study the history of the region by examining processes of both internal fragmentation and external subordination. While the paper cannot constitute a complete or systematic study of the Balkans, it presents and overview of the most salient features in the region's historical, politico-economic and cultural development. Two case studies, Yugoslavia and Kosovo, help to highlight the broader trends.
  • Topic: Economics, Human Welfare, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe, Iran, Middle East, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans
  • Author: Guadalupe González
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: This document analyses the impact of the end of the Cold-War, and the processes of economic and political liberalization on Mexico's foreign policy. The first section identifies the consequences for the so-called intermediate countries of the three most important post-Cold War trends: the emergence of hybrid structure of global power, the wave of globalization, and the growing importance of international institutions. The second section evaluates the explanatory value of three systemic approaches to the study of the foreign policy of intermediate states: systemic-structuralism, middle powers, and pivotal states. In the third section, I evaluate Kahler's alternative approach centered on the interaction between systemic and domestic variables, in particular on the foreign policy consequences of economic liberalization and democratization such as the adoption of external cooperative strategies and the deepening to engagement with international institution. The fourth section describes the main changes that have taken place in Mexico's foreign policy during the 1990s: pragmatism, primacy of economics, closer alignment with the United States, segmented multilateralism, fragmentation of the decision-making process, and new instruments. There are two arguments in this document. First, in contrast to other intermediate liberalizing countries, Mexico's efforts to adapt to the new post-Cold War international system, followed an uneven and partial pattern. While Mexican political leaders pursued the full integration of the country to the international economy, in the security realm they maintain a less than open policy based on the defense of the traditional notion of sovereignty. Mexico's partial adaptation is explained by the different pace of the raid economic reform on the one hand, and the gradual and slow opening of the post-revolutionary political regime, on the other. Second, as Kahler's model predicted, Mexico adopted strategies of cooperation and institutional engagement in order to solve credibility roblems. The need to enhance the credibility of the programs of economic reform pushed the Mexican government to engage actively with economic international institutions.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Middle East, North America, Mexico
  • Author: Aysegul Sever
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: While the Iraqi crisis has served to help define America's position on the world's stage, especially pertaining to trans-Atlantic relations and the West-Islam axis, Turkey's position on Iraq will similarly have a lasting effect on that country's relations both with the West and with the Islamic world. The Turkish government's ambivalent stance towards the Iraqi crisis (first siding with the US position, then deciding to remain on the sidelines in accordance with a legislative decision based mainly on domestic concerns) seriously strained Turkish-American relations. This strain must be addressed, as it is now clear that neither side can take the decades-old, deep-seated ties for granted. As the Iraqi crisis proved, Turkey should not overestimate its strategic geographical location as a guarantee that will ensure America's continuing interest in Turkish concerns. On its part, the US should avoid the patronizing position that was evident in the run-up to the Iraq war. Especially, as the leading supporter of Turkey's fight against the PKK, America should be more attentive to its ally's special concerns and engage in consistent consultation with the Turkish government on Iraq while avoiding any “knee-jerk” reactions or unilateral acts. It is also important that Turkey's economic recovery program should continue to be backed by Washington. As a Middle Eastern country and a long time ally of the US, Turkey's views on the rebuilding of Iraq should be taken into account, especially while anti-Americanism in the area remains strong.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East
  • Author: Ruth M. Beitler, Cindy R. Jebb
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Military Academy, Department of Social Science
  • Abstract: Short-term solutions to more profound, long-term problems are not sufficient to safeguard United States interests in the Middle East. This paper challenges the current United States policy towards Egypt and its underlying assumption that regime stability supercedes a US interest in true political development. The key question in this paper queries why the status quo policy towards Egypt is no longer fulfilling US objectives when it has been a successful pillar for US Middle East policy in the past. One can easily understand the seductive nature of adhering to the status quo policy by recalling Anwar Sadat's initiatives moving Egypt squarely from the Soviet camp to the American one, the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, and Egypt's support during the Gulf War in 1991. The United States must take bold new steps towards its relationship with Egypt and leverage Egypt's historical regional leadership to better support US interests for the future.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Soviet Union, Arabia, Egypt
  • Author: Geraldine Chatelard
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: This paper describes and analyses the case of Iraqis who, in the 1990s, have arrived in Jordan as forced migrants, and have continued to Western Europe or Australia as asylum migrants. The argument put forth is that trends of asylum migration cannot be fully understood without looking at a set of interrelated issues in the countries of first reception of the forced migrants: reception standards, the migrants' poor socioeconomic conditions, further violations of their human rights, but also the functioning of the migrants' social networks and of human smuggling rings.
  • Topic: Human Rights, Migration, Religion
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East, Australia, Jordan, Western Europe
  • Author: Giacomo Luciani, Felix Neugart
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: The Iraq crisis has been a disaster for the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) of the European Union (EU). Member countries are very visibly split in their position towards the war against the regime in Baghdad. EU institutions have been unable to agree on more than the unconditional implementation of the relevant United Nations resolutions leaving the door open for widely diverging interpretations. The challenge of the Iraq crisis does not bode well for the future of a cohesive European Foreign Policy, and the CFSP requires a fresh approach.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, War
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Arabia, United Nations
  • Author: Mark Edmond Clark
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia International Affairs Online
  • Abstract: In your estimation, what would it take to get organized crime in Southeastern Europe under control? Mark Clark: A successful fight against organized crime typically would require the successful change of culture in the society in which it exists. Organized crime groups maintain their control by creating and maintaining an environment of fear within the societies that they operate. Practically as a prerequisite, they must possess the capacity to kill and commit other acts of extreme violence against friend and foe alike. To that extent, history would show that few in any society have had the strength to stand up against them. However, organized crime also survives often because the society in which it exists, accepts it. In the Balkans, peoples of the different ethnic groups have typically lived in rural communities, based on agrarian economies, and for the most part have been isolated and provincial, with little interest in making dramatic transformations regarding the place of organized crime. In the cosmopolitan cities and areas of almost each state, organized crime has also developed real influence. Perhaps a cause for that might be the successive migrations to the cities and towns, thereby assuring that there would always be segments of the population that accepted organized crime and would welcome the goods and services criminal groups could provide.
  • Topic: Security, Government, International Law
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Author: Ehsan Ahrari
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia International Affairs Online
  • Abstract: The lone superpower has become the sole recipient of world criticism as well as praise and envy. According to a recent survey issued by the Pew Research Center, “Images of the United States have been tarnished in all types of nations: among longtime NATO allies, in developing countries, in Eastern Europe, and, most dramatically in Muslim societies.” That is the price of excellence. If others cannot be as good as you, the least they can do is admire and emulate you. The United States is criticized, and even hated in some regions, but the overriding variable is the global feeling of envy toward it. The survey underscores that the leadership of the superpower is an established phenomenon, at least for now, while its negative image continues to linger.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Globalization
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East
  • Author: Derek B. Miller
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Small Arms Survey
  • Abstract: This paper draws strong conclusions about the dynamics of stockpiles and holdings, demand factors for small arms, and the significance of social controls on individual and community behaviour in Yemen.Using a new method, devised uniquely for this study, to estimate small arms availability at the local level, it is believed that Yemen has between 6-9 million small arms, most of which are from the former Eastern Bloc countries or China, with fewer numbers of various makes and models from other countries, some dating back to the early nineteenth century. This dramatically reduces the popular estimate of Yemen having 50 million small arms. However, this revised estimate includes only an educated guess as to the actual number of weapons in state stockpiles, as well as those in the hands of tribal sheikhs. Though severely reduced, this new figure does not undermine Yemen's status as one of the world's most heavily armed societies, but certainly not the most armed, when one considers both per capita weaponry and their high level of lethality.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Yemen
  • Author: Dov Lynch
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: The South Caucasus contains three states that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union: Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Geographically, the region is populated by some fifteen million people, links the Caspian Sea basin to the Black Sea on an east-to-west axis, and is the juncture between the greater Middle East, Turkey and Iran, and the Russian Federation. This chapter will introduce a number of themes that run through this Chaillot Paper. The first part examines the nature of the 'transition' that the three South Caucasian states have undergone with a view to understanding the scale of their transformation. A second part discusses dimensions of state weakness across the region. Next, the chapter considers the impact of third parties on regional security/insecurity, and finally it outlines the structure of the volume.
  • Topic: Security, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Iran, Central Asia, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia
  • Author: Martin Ortega
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: In summer 2000 the negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians hosted by President Clinton at Camp David raised the prospect of a peaceful resolution of the most sensitive aspects of their controversy, after almost nine years of difficult but promising exchanges following on from the Madrid Conference of November 1991. Nevertheless, Yasser Arafat's refusal to accept the terms negotiated at Camp David and the outbreak of a second intifada on 28 September 2000 led to a spiral of violence that dashed hopes for peace, leading instead to low-intensity war. Nor did the election of Ariel Sharon as Prime Minister in February 2001 make a return to the negotiating table any easier. The two parties considered that they would have more to gain from acts of violence than from negotiations and agreements. Therefore, violence in the Middle East was the continuation of diplomacy by other means. The external actors did not want, or were unable, to break this vicious circle. The most bitter regional conflict since the Second World War was thus rekindled following a phase of pacification that had appeared to be permanent. The European Union and its member states, but also the European public, viewed this negative development with great concern, because the breakdown of the peace process symbolised the end of a decade of optimism that the international community could promote peace not only in the Middle East but also in many other regions, such as southern Africa, Central America, the Balkans or South-East Asia.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Europe, Middle East, South Africa, Balkans, Central America, Southeast Asia
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, Linda M. Gerber
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The failure of U.S. and British forces in Iraq to find evidence of weapons of mass destruction has sparked controversy on both sides of the Atlantic and in the wider international community. Two contending explanations have been offered for why the Bush administration made apparently questionable claims about weapons of mass destruction. The first alleges an intelligence failure. The best analysts in the CIA simply had no foolproof way of discerning what Saddam had. They gave the administration a wide-ranging set of estimates, from benign to worst-case, and, given the way bureaucracies behave, the president's advisors adopted the worse case scenario. The second claim, more odious in form and substance, is that the administration inflated and manipulated uncertain data, possibly even requesting that material sent to it be redone to fit preconceived notions. The Bush administration has gone to great pains to reassert that it stands by its previous pronouncements that prohibited weapons will be located in due time.
  • Topic: International Relations, War, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, Linda M. Gerber
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The United States, the United Kingdom, and other nations claim that Iraq poses an imminent threat to international security because it has weapons of mass destruction and operational connections to the Al Qaeda terrorist network. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell asserted in his presentation to the Security Council on 5 February that Iraq has made no effort to disarm and is concealing efforts to redevelop weapons of mass destruction. Powell restated old allegations that the United States had made prior to the 8 November passage of Resolution 1441. He presented new intelligence about Iraqi efforts to conceal its weapons capabilities, and he reiterated previous information about the likely existence of chemical and biological agents from the 1990s, but he did not prove that there is a grave new threat from Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Nor did he show a link between Iraq and September 11, or an operational connection between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism, United Nations, War
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, Linda M. Gerber, Karl Shelly
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The U.S. and other governments contend that the United Nations disarmament process in Iraq is not working, but an objective analysis shows that significant steps toward compliance have occurred. This report lists Iraqi efforts to cooperate with UN inspections while also identifying areas of inadequate compliance. The report also reviews the compliance mandates of Security Council Resolution 1441, notes whether Iraq has complied, and assesses Iraq's overall level of compliance.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: William D. Hartung
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The Bush administration's war on terrorism and its proposed military intervention in Iraq have sparked the steepest increases in military and security spending in two decades. Since September 11, 2001, the federal government has approved over $110 billion in increased military spending and military aid. Spending on national defense is slated to reach $399 billion in the Fiscal Year 2004 budget, and to rise to over $500 billion annually by the end of this decade. These vast sums do not include the costs of the ongoing war in Afghanistan or a war with Iraq. Steven Kosiak of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments estimates that only 5 to 10 percent of the Fiscal Year 2003 Pentagon budget is being set aside for anti-terror activities and homeland security.
  • Topic: Security, Economics, Government, Terrorism, War
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: Secretary of State Powell misrepresented the alleged terrorist training camp in northern Iraqi.Powell claimed and presented a photograph showing that a "terrorist poison and explosives factory" is located in Khurmal, a Kurdish village near the Iranian border. Local Kurdish officials allied with the United States told the New York Times that no such camp exists at that location. A senior official of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which receives financial assistance from the United States, said he had no information about the compound. A local administrator for the group that controls Khurmal said Powell's claim was "not true."
  • Topic: Terrorism, War
  • Political Geography: United States, New York, Middle East
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, Linda M. Gerber
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: After two months of increasingly intensive inspection activity, UN weapons monitors in Iraq, by their own account, have achieved considerable progress in establishing the disarmament process mandated in Security Council Resolution 1441 (2002). During his 27 January update to the Security Council, UN inspections chief Dr. Hans Blix reported that "Iraq has on the whole cooperated rather well so far" with UN inspectors. "It would appear from our experience so far that Iraq has decided in principle to provide cooperation on process, notably access." Although Baghdad has not fully disclosed its weapons activities as required by UN resolutions, and many unanswered questions remain, weapons inspectors have established an effective disarmament verification system in Iraq. They have asked for the "unified resolve" of the Security Council to support an ongoing inspection process. In contrast with the experience of UN weapons monitors during the early 1990s, the inspectors with the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have received unfettered access to Iraqi facilities and have been able to conduct more than 350 on-site inspections. They are employing the world's most advanced technology for detecting nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons and are installing an ongoing monitoring system that will provide permanent surveillance of Iraq's weapons activities.
  • Topic: United Nations, War, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Istituto Affari Internazionali
  • Abstract: The evolution of a European space policy is encouraged by the recent EU decision to develop the Galileo project. This decision confirms the willingness to pursue a policy in the space technologies that goes beyond the national level, even if national visions are still predominant. A new security concept is emerging. The evolution of the foreign, security and defense policy (CFSP, ESDP) and the protection of population requires integrated approach.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: Europe, Middle East
  • Author: Roberto Aliboni
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Istituto Affari Internazionali
  • Abstract: This paper deals with the impact of the Iraqi crisis on Mediterranean dynamics. Four such dynamics are taken into consideration, assuming their particular significance: (a) the Israeli- Palestinian conflict and, more broadly, the opposition between Israel and the Arab-Muslim countries; (b) the stability of regional regimes and their transition to democracy; (c) the development of the EU Mediterranean policies and their relevance in the region; (d) Turkey's national and regional interests.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Heiko Wimmen
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: HW: Professor Peled, during the two years of Ariel Sharon's tenure as prime minister, Israel has seen a steep economic decline, and a rapidly deteriorating security situation. Yet Mr. Sharon enjoys more support than any Israeli head of government for a long time. What do you make of this paradox?
  • Topic: Government, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Palestine
  • Author: Burhan Ghalioun
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: The failure to discover any traceable evidence of Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq doubtlessly creates a serious embarrassment for the American administration. But the US never made much of an effort to conceal that the purported existence of WMDs in Iraq was only a pretext employed to obtain the consent of some of its bigger allies to its global strategic outlook, and the acquiescence of smaller nations to its regional plans. The real objective behind the US strike against Iraq was not the destruction of WMDs – Iraq in its pre-war state was ill equipped to produce WMDs anyway – but to topple the regime of President Saddam Hussein. The Bush administration also clearly considered regime change to be more than a strategic aim in itself, but rather a prelude to a general makeover of the region, in the course of which many local regimes would have to change or be changed according to its strategic vision. Secretary of State Colin Powell made this abundantly clear when, in December 2002, he promised the peoples of the region a concerted effort on behalf of the US to achieve democratic change, fight unemployment and work for the improvement of women's position in society.
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, America, Middle East
  • Author: Paul G. Frost
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
  • Abstract: The Schlesinger Working Group on Strategic Surprises in Spring 2003 took on the topic, "The Unintended Consequences of an Expanded U.S. Military Presence in the Muslim World", holding its first meeting March 18, literally on the eve of war against Iraq. Its second meeting was held May 27, after the war ended, and as the difficulties of post-war reconstruction were becoming clearer. Core members and area/subject experts met to examine benefits and drawbacks, as well as scenarios that could stem from an expanded American military presence in the Middle East, South Asia and North Africa.
  • Topic: Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, America, South Asia, Middle East, Arabia, North Africa
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
  • Abstract: This panel on global democratization is part of an ongoing ISD effort to focus policy debate on a topic of growing importance. The first in this series of panel discussions was held shortly after 9/11, and was entitled "Sustaining Global Democratization: a priority now more than ever". That title could serve well for this panel also, as the connected issues of democratization and nation building are more timely and urgent than ever. In the new National Security Strategy, the President commits the U.S. to "extend the benefits of freedom across the globe." Democratization is no longer on the fringes of the policy debate. Uppermost on the agenda of policy maker and analyst are the open questions relating to Afghanistan, Iraq and the West-Bank/Gaza. How our democracy promoting goals are to be pursued and achieved in these and other cases is far from clear. Panelists today and at subsequent forums will bring the benefit of their wide experience to these issues. The problems that we discuss are global in nature. Today's panel will for the most part focus on the Middle East. Other regions will be the focus of attention at subsequent forums.
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, War
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, Gaza
  • Author: Keith Henderson, Alvaro Herrero
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Academy of Political Science
  • Abstract: The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of judicial inefficiency on small businesses in Peru. It is based on the hypothesis that chronic problems in the region's judicial systems have negative consequences on the development of micro, small and medium - sized businesses. Our analysis focuses, first, on the relationship between Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and the legal system. Secondly, it investigates the decisions made by SMEs to mitigate the effects of bad court performance. Lastly, it identifies several ways in which judicial inefficiency is transferred to the business sector. The analysis also attempts to quantify the economic impact of judicial inefficiency.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development
  • Political Geography: Middle East, South America, Peru
  • Author: Carl Conetta
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Project on Defense Alternatives
  • Abstract: The motivating premise of this study is that nations cannot wage war responsibly or intelligently without careful attention to its costs. The broader context in which "Operation Iraqi Freedom" was conducted -- that is, the campaign against terrorism -- makes attention to the repercussions of war even more urgent. Effective action against terrorism depends in fair part on an effort to win hearts and minds. Success in this effort turns significantly on issues of legitimacy and responsible action, especially with regard to the use of force. And the first principle of responsible action is to take account of its effects.
  • Topic: Human Welfare, War
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Carl Conetta
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Project on Defense Alternatives
  • Abstract: This report analyzes an important aspect of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF): the interdiction of Iraqi ground units by coalition air forces. Based on air campaign statistics, observations from the field, and the experience of past air campaigns, the report assesses the likely impact (in terms of combatant casualties) of coalition air attacks on the Iraqi army in the field. Our approach is a comparative one that views the OIF air interdiction campaign in light of the experience of the 1991 Gulf War. Among the issues we explore is the contribution of coalition air power to the catastrophic collapse of the Iraqi Republican Guard and regular army.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Daniel R. Lynch
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Joan B. Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
  • Abstract: There is no shortage of pronouncements that we are now at a key point in history. This critical moment has four defining characteristics: industrialization, the explosion in scientific and technical knowledge, globalization, and a missing emphasis on the public good.
  • Topic: Democratization
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East
  • Author: Stefani Hoffman
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: The Greek term “diaspora” was first applied to the dispersion and settlement of the Jews outside of ancient Palestine. Subsequently, the term was extended to the Greek and Armenian dispersion and to other migratory phenomena, although scholars continue to refer back to the original meaning. Indeed, particularly since the fall of the Soviet bloc and the acceleration of globalization processes, governmental bodies, NGOs, and academic institutions have devoted considerable attention to defining and studying the various migratory processes and the effects of clusters of immigrant populations on countries in the developed world.
  • Topic: Migration
  • Political Geography: Russia, Middle East, Israel, Soviet Union, Palestine
  • Author: Mumukshu Patel
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: On November 6, 2003 in a speech at the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), President George W Bush enunciated his Middle East Doctrine: democratization of the region as the first priority of U.S. strategy, irrespective of past policy considerations. It was the most ambitious policy overhaul for the region, since President Eisenhower's commitment to defend the Middle East against Soviet Communism. Following the Eisenhower doctrine all U.S. Middle East policy reflected strategic U.S. concerns: as long as states in the Middle East cooperated with the U.S., shunned Communism and later rejected theocratic regimes – at least nominally, the United States would ignore their domestic policies, and support them – via foreign aid, military technology and personnel etc. This was the status quo that characterized U.S. policy toward the Middle East.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Democratization
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Soviet Union
  • Author: Daniel Heradstveit, G. Matthew Bonham
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The respondents feared an American attack, and regarded their membership in «the Axis of Evil» as a stab in the back after Iranian help in Afghanistan. This demonisation was seen overwhelmingly in terms of American geopolitical designs, ignorance and downright irrationality – an expansionist superpower that is dangerously out of control. The WTC attack initially caused a strengthening of Iranian national unity and a more coherent foreign policy, but most of the respondents regard «the Axis of Evil» as killing the nascent dialogue with the USA stone dead and coming as a godsend to the conservatives and the ultras.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, America, Iran, Middle East
  • Author: Morten Bremer Maerli
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: In accordance with Resolution 1441, unanimously passed by the UN Security Council, Iraq on November 7th, 2002, submitted a declaration of its activities concerning weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Copies of the declaration were forwarded to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and later to the permanent members of the Security Council. The declaration described the various methods used by Iraq in trying to produce nuclear material suitable for weapons, as well as the many sites involved in the nuclear program. In the nearly 12,000-page document Iraq claimed that it had no current WMD programs. However, intelligence analysts from the United States and other nations immediately began to scrutinize the document, and senior US officials quickly rejected the claims made by Iraq.
  • Topic: Security, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Public International Law Policy Group
  • Abstract: As the situation in Iraq continues to stabilize, the people of Iraq will turn to the task of reconstituting an Iraqi state. One of the first steps in this process will be to design, agree upon, and implement a new constitutional structure. While drafting a new constitution is a difficult and contentious process for any country, the challenges are substantially magnified for Iraq given its complex mosaic of ethnic and religious identities, the history of repression under Saddam Hussein, the necessary presence of American forces, and Iraq's complex relations with its neighboring states.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, War
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: Two years ago, we responded to attacks on America by launching a global war against terrorism that has removed gathering threats to America and our allies and has liberated the Iraqi and Afghan people from oppression and fear.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Economics
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Iraq, America, Middle East
  • Author: David Johnson
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: In 2000, an overwhelming 97 percent of Afghan girls did not attend school, and today only about 20 percent are literate. Tens of thousands of Afghan girls are now attending school for the first time in years.
  • Topic: International Relations, Democratization, Development
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Middle East
  • Author: Zdzislaw Lachowski, Björn Hagelin, Sam Perlo-Freeman, Petter Stålenheim, Dmitri Trofimov, Alyson J. K. Bailes
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: The international attention paid to the nations of the South Caucasus region and Central Asia—a group of post-Soviet states beyond Europe's conventional frontiers but included in the Conference on/Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE/OSCE)—has been fitful at best over the past decade. During the last years of the 20th and at the start of the 21st century, after the conflicts in Georgia and Nagorno-Karabakh became (at least partly) 'frozen', security concerns about the regions tended to decline and to become overshadowed both by 'oil diplomacy' and by concern about developments within Russia itself, in Chechnya and Dagestan. In 2002–2003 a constellation of changes in the outside world has started to reverse this pattern. Chechnya is no longer a regular topic of high-level political debate between Russia and the West, and President Vladimir Putin has played the anti-terrorist card with some success to secure his freedom to deal with it as an internal security matter. The factors prompting greater international attention to Russia's south-western and southern neighbours, by contrast, have the potential to undermine—perhaps for good—any Russian pretension to decisive influence or an exclusive droit de regard in these regions. At the time of writing, however, this latest shift could again be called in question by a new diversion of focus to the 'greater Middle East' following hostilities in Iraq.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Russia, Iraq, Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Middle East, Chechnya, Georgia
  • Author: Joseph McMillan
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The reconstruction and reform of the Iraqi armed forces will inevitably take place in the context of both Iraq's present and past. Saddam Hussein and his predecessors, going back to the creation of the state, have left Iraq a legacy of endemic domestic political violence, dysfunctional civil-military relations, and, in recent decades, an ideology of unremitting hostility to virtually every one of Iraq's neighbors.
  • Topic: Security, Government
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Rose Gottemoeller, Ray Takeyh, Danielle Pletka, Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, Dennis Ross, Geoffrey Kemp, Henry Sokolski, Reuel Marc Gerecht, Ladan Boroumand, Thomas McInerney
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
  • Abstract: I'm Patrick Clawson, the Deputy Director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. I would like to thank all of our guests for attending this event today. If I could just take a couple of minutes to explain what our intention is in organizing this event, and then we can plunge right in, after we go around the table and everyone introduces themselves.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States, Iran, Middle East
  • Author: Nermeen Shaikh
  • Publication Date: 12-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia Society
  • Abstract: Talal Asad has conducted extensive research on the phenomenon of religion (and secularism), particularly the religious revival in the Middle East. Professor Asad is the author of Genealogies of Religion: Discipline and Reasons of Power in Christianity and Islam (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1993). His new book, Formations of the Secular: Christianity, Islam, Modernity will be published by Stanford University Press in February 2003. Professor Asad is Distinguished Professor of Anthropology at the City University of New York (CUNY) Graduate Center.
  • Topic: Government, Religion
  • Political Geography: South Asia, Middle East
  • Author: Hal Harvey
  • Publication Date: 06-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Aspen Institute
  • Abstract: Energy is at once the lifeblood and the bane of the modern world. Fossil energy has fueled tremendous economic growth over the past 150 years. The economic history of the United States is largely the history of extracting and using coal and oil. At the same time, the profligate use of these energy sources has created the world's most pressing environmental problems, and led to major national security concerns for the United States. Energy consumption is the primary source of greenhouse gas emissions, smog, acid rain, oil spills, and nuclear waste. American dependence on oil from the Middle East forces our hand on foreign policy and imposes high economic and human costs. It is becoming increasingly clear that America's—and the world's—current diet of fossil energy is not sustainable.
  • Topic: Economics, Environment, Science and Technology, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Middle East
  • Author: Frank G. Wisner, Edward P. Djerejian
  • Publication Date: 12-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Today's Iraq debate is understandably focused on the run-up to possible military action. However, the question of how the United States and the international community should manage post-conflict Iraq is even more consequential, as it will determine the long-term condition of Iraq and the entire Middle East. If Washington does not clearly define its goals for Iraq and build support for them domestically and with its allies and partners, future difficulties are bound to quickly overshadow any initial military success. Put simply, the United States may lose the peace, even if it wins the war.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries
  • Author: Bjørn Møller
  • Publication Date: 11-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: In the present paper, a sketch is offered of a possible resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with a special view to how the European Union might help bring this about. Consideration is also given to the larger framework of a lasting peace between Israel and its Arab neighbours.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia
  • Author: Richard Youngs
  • Publication Date: 11-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Democracy should be conceived as an important element of European strategic policy towards North Africa and the Middle East, but the complex prerequisites to its stability- enhancing potentiality also recognised. While EU policy has come to incorporate such a perspective, its approach to democracy promotion in the Arab-Muslim world has remained tentative and nebulous in its conceptualisation of how stable and sustainable political change can best be encouraged. A summary of European democracy and human rights aid projects reveals the notable extent to which these have expanded, but also raises concerns over imbalances in the profile of EU political aid. In sum, this calls for a number of changes to EU policy that broaden the understanding of how different levels of policy instruments can dovetail together in a more comprehensive and sophisticated approach to democracy promotion.
  • Topic: Democratization
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Arabia, North Africa
  • Author: Peter Van Ness, Hugh White, Stuart Harris, Amin Saikal, Peter C. Gration
  • Publication Date: 11-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Australian National University Department of International Relations
  • Abstract: What curious path has brought us to this point? Just over a year ago, terrorists from the amorphous transnational Al Qaeda network killed thousands of Americans and other nationals by flying planes into New York's World Trade Center, the Pentagon in Washington, and a field in Pennsylvania. Today, the United States is preparing to launch a war against the state of Iraq, emphasising the grave and imminent danger posed by Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, but animated also by a long-standing goal of 'regime change'. What explains this 'statising' of the so-called 'war against terrorism'? What risks does it pose for regional and world order?
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism, War, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Lynne Kiesling, Joseph Becker
  • Publication Date: 05-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Recent changes in Russia's domestic oil industry have had dramatic effects on world oil markets, including Russia's emergence as the number two exporter of oil after Saudi Arabia. These effects are occurring even though Russia is not close to fully exploiting its reserves. Russia's oil industry has large growth prospects, and this potential will allow Moscow to take a greater market share away from OPEC in the future. A number of factors will facilitate this trend. Russia's target oil price is lower than OPEC's, which gives it an incentive to continue exporting beyond OPEC's wishes. Also, Russia's oil industry is more privatized than the oil industries in Persian Gulf states, which allows it to be more entrepreneurial in attracting investment and joint ventures.
  • Topic: Security, Energy Policy, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Moscow, Kabardino
  • Author: Ivan Eland, Bernard Gourley
  • Publication Date: 12-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: For months the Bush administration has been preparing the country for war with Iraq. The administration has argued that only a forcible regime change can neutralize the threat that Saddam Hussein is said to pose. But the assumptions that underlie the administration's policy range from cautiously pessimistic to outright fallacious. First, there is a prevalent belief that if Iraq is able to obtain nuclear weapons it will inevitably use them. Second, there is a notion that Hussein is totally irrational and cannot be trusted to act in a predictable manner; and, because of that, his leadership creates a substantial risk of instability in the Middle East. Finally, many people in the United States have come to believe that war in Iraq may be the only means of nullifying the threat posed by Iraq's nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons programs.
  • Topic: Security, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia
  • Publication Date: 11-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: Since U.S. President George W. Bush's 24 June 2002 statement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Palestinian reform has emerged as a key ingredient in Middle East diplomacy. In his statement, the president publicly identified “a new and different Palestinian leadership” and “entirely new political and economic institutions” as preconditions for the establishment of a Palestinian state. In early July, the Quartet of Middle East mediators (the European Union, Russian Federation, United Nations, and United States) established an International Task Force for Palestinian Reform “to develop and implement a comprehensive reform action plan” for the Palestinian Authority (PA). The September 2002 statement by the Quartet underscored reform of Palestinian political, civil, and security institutions as an integral component of peacemaking. The three phase-implementation roadmap, a U.S. draft of which was presented to Israel and the Palestinians by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State William Burns in October, provided details on this reform component.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, United Nations
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: Iran is at a crossroads. More than two decades after the revolution that swept Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini into power, its people and leaders are deeply torn about the country's future. The outcome of the struggle for the revolution's soul will resonate across the Middle East and have major implications both strategically and for ongoing efforts to curb violence, including terrorism, in the region. The internal struggle is fluid and unstable. While the notion of a clear-cut battle pitting conservatives against reformers is appealing, it does not do justice to the reality. There are divisions within both camps and connections between them; indeed, some actors may be “conservative” on certain issues and “reformers” on others. Likewise, the idea that Iran's rulers can be dismissed en bloc as obstacles to reform overlooks the genuine differences that exist regarding the proper role of religion, democracy, social norms, economics and foreign policy. The complexity of Iran's domestic situation makes it all the more difficult – but also imperative – for the international community to exercise caution, properly fine-tune its actions and anticipate their impact.
  • Topic: Security, Economics, Human Rights, Politics
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries
  • Publication Date: 07-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: President Bush, announcing U.S. policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on 24 June 2002, has set the terms of the international response to the conflict for the immediately foreseeable period. Before peace can be negotiated the violence has to stop. If the Palestinians are to have their own state – and the clear message is that they should – it must be one based on the principles of democracy, transparency and the rule of law. For that to happen the current leadership needs to go. The logic is sequential: political progress is conditional on a new security environment, institutional reform and, in effect, on regime change.
  • Topic: Security, Human Rights, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 04-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: This draft analysis is be circulated for comment as part of the CSIS “Saudi Arabia Enters the 21st Century Project.” It will be extensively revised before final publication.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 04-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: This draft analysis is be circulated for comment as part of the CSIS “Saudi Arabia Enters the 21st Century Project.” It will be extensively revised before final publication.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 04-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: This draft analysis is be circulated for comment as part of the CSIS “Saudi Arabia Enters the 21st Century Project.” It will be extensively revised before final publication.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 02-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Russia retains a significant strategic nuclear force capability, despite the decline in overall force size since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and despite apparent defense budgetary shortfalls and system aging. Russia also inherited sizeable biological and chemical warfare establishments from the FSU, and some components of these programs remain largely intact. Russian entities have exported various nuclear and ballistic missile technologies to states of proliferation concern, and Russia also remains a source for offensive biological and chemical warfare technologies and expertise.
  • Topic: Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, China, Europe, Middle East, Asia
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 01-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: This draft analysis is be circulated for comment as part of the CSIS “Saudi Arabia Enters the 21 st Century Project.” It will be extensively revised before final publication.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 01-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The reporting of START accountable warheads has led to serious confusion between START accountable warheads and actual warheads.
  • Topic: Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, China, Europe, South Asia, Middle East, Asia
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 01-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Reasons for proliferating outweigh disincentives,and motivation is growing. Arms control regimes harass proliferators without stopping stem and fail to offer non-proliferators security. War fighting concepts are likely to lack clear structure and be highly volatile in terms of enemy, targets, and crisis behavior. Only a few leadership and military elites -- such as Egypt and Israel -- have shown a concern with highly structured strategic planning in the past. Iran-Iraq and Gulf Wars have demonstrated missiles and weapons of mass destruction will be used. Israeli actions in 1967 and attack on Osirak, Egyptian and Syrian attack on Israel in 1973, demonstrate regional focus on surprise and preemption. Iraq has already demonstrated regional concern with launch on warning, launch under attack options. Syria probably has some option of this kind. Concentration of population and leadership in single or a few urban areas makes existential attacks possible.
  • Topic: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Syria, Egypt
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 01-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Reasons for proliferating outweigh disincentives, and motivation is growing. Arms control regimes harass proliferators without stopping stem and fail to offer nonproliferators security. War fighting concepts are likely to lack clear structure and be highly volatile in terms of enemy, targets, and crisis behavior. Only a few leadership and military elites -- such as Egypt and Israel -- have shown a concern with highly structured strategic planning in the past. Iran - Iraq and Gulf Wars have demonstrated missiles and weapons of mass destruction will be used. Israeli actions in 1967 and attack on Osirak, Egyptian and Syrian attack on Israel in 1973, demonstrate regional focus on surprise and preemption. Iraq has already demonstrated regional concern with launch on warning, launch under attack options. Syria probably has some option of this kind. Concentration of population and leadership in single or a few urban areas makes existential attacks possible.
  • Topic: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Egypt
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 01-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: As is the case with North Korea, experts differ over the seriousness of the Iranian threat. Most experts believe that Iran continues to pursue the development of long-range missiles, and of nuclear and biological warheads. Much will depend heavily on whether President Khatami and the more moderate elements in Iran's leadership can consolidate power and rein in Iran's hardline extremists, as well as on Iran's perception of the threat the US poses once it is ready to deploy and the cost of that deployment. This creates an extremely uncertain political climate.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, North Korea
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 01-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Despite the Gulf War, and the loss of some 40% of its army and air force order of battle, Iraq remains the most effective military power in the Gulf. It still has an army of around 375,000 men, and an inventory of some 2,200 main battle tanks, 3,700 other armored vehicles, and 2,400 major artillery weapons. It also has over 300 combat aircraft with potential operational status. At the same time, Iraq has lacked the funds, spare parts, and production capabilities to sustain the quality of its consolidated forces. Iraq has not been able to restructure its overall force structure to compensate as effectively as possible for its prior dependence on an average of $3 billion a year in arms deliveries. It has not been able to recapitalize any aspect of its force structure, and about two-thirds of its remaining inventory of armor and aircraft is obsolescent by Western standards. Iraq has not been able to fund and/or import any major new conventional warfare technology to react to the lessons of the Gulf War, or to produce any major equipment -- with the possible exception of limited numbers of Magic “dogfight” air-to-air missiles. In contrast, Saudi Arabia has taken delivery on over $66 billion worth of new arms since 1991, Kuwait has received $7.6 billion, Iran $4.3 billion, Bahrain $700 million, Oman $1.4 billion, Qatar $1.7 billion, and the UAE $7.9 billion, Equally important, the US has made major upgrades in virtually every aspect of its fighter avionics, attack munitions, cruise missile capabilities, and intelligence, reconnaissance, and targeting capabilities. Iraq's inability to recapitalize and modernize its forces means that much of its large order of battle is no obsolescent or obsolete, has uncertain combat readiness, and will be difficult to sustain in combat. It also raises serious questions about the ability of its forces to conduct long-range movements or maneuvers and then sustain coherent operations. Iraq has demonstrated that it can still carry out significant ground force exercises and fly relatively high sortie rates. It has not, however, demonstrated training patterns that show its army has consistent levels of training, can make effective use of combined arms above the level of some individual brigades, or has much capability for joint land-air operations. It has not demonstrated that it can use surface-to-air missiles in a well-organized way as a maneuvering force to cover its deployed land forces. Iran remains a major threat to Iraq. Iran lost 40-60% of its major land force equipment during the climactic battles of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988. It has, however, largely recovered from its defeat by Iraq and now has comparatively large forces. Iran now has an army of around 450,000 men – including roughly 125,000 Revolutionary Guards, and an inventory of some 1,600 main battle tanks, 1,500 other armored vehicles, and 3,200 major artillery weapons. It also has over 280 combat aircraft with potential operational status. Iran has been able to make major improvements in its ability to threaten maritime traffic through the Gulf, and to conduct unconventional warfare. Iran has also begun to acquire modern Soviet combat aircraft and has significant numbers of the export version of the T-72 and BMP. Iran has not, however, been able to offset the obsolescence and wear of its overall inventory of armor, ships, and aircraft. Iran has not been able to modernize key aspects of its military capabilities such as airborne sensors and C4I/BM, electronic warfare, land-based air defense integration, beyond-visual-range air-to-air combat, night warfare capabilities, stand-off attack capability, armored sensors and fire control systems, artillery mobility and battle management, combat ship systems integration, etc. In contrast, no Southern Gulf state has built up significant ground forces since the Gulf War, and only Saudi Arabia has built up a significant air force. Only two Southern Gulf forces – those of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait – have a significant defense capability against Iraq. Saudi Arabia has made real progress in improving its 75,000 man National Guard. Its army, however, lacks effective leadership, training, and organization. It now has an army of around 75,000 men –, and an inventory of some 1,055 main battle tanks, 4,800 other armored vehicles, and 500 major artillery weapons. It also has around 350 combat aircraft with potential operational status. The army has made little overall progress in training since the Gulf War, can probably only fight about half of its equipment holdings in the Iraqi border area (and it would take 4-6 weeks to deploy and prepare this strength), and has declined in combined arms capability since the Gulf War. It has little capability for joint land-air operations. Its individual pilots and aircraft have experienced a growing readiness crisis since the mid-1990s. It has lacked cohesive leadership as a fighting force since that time and cannot fight as a coherent force without US support and battle management.. Kuwait now has an army of only around 11,000 men, and an active inventory of some 293 main battle tanks, 466 other armored vehicles, and 17 major artillery weapons. Only its 218 M-1A2s are really operational and only a portion of these are in combat effective forces. It has only 82 combat aircraft and 20 armed helicopters with potential operational status, and only 40 are modern F-18s. It is making progress in training, but has not shown it can make effective use of combined arms above the battalion level, and has little capability for joint land-air operations. Its individual pilots and aircraft have moderate readiness, but cannot fight as a coherent force without US support and battle management. There has been little progress in standardization and interoperability; advances in some areas like ammunition have been offset by the failure to integrate increasingly advanced weapons systems. Showpiece exercises and purchases disguise an essentially static approach to force improvement which is heavily weapons oriented, and usually shows little real-world appreciation of the lessons of the Gulf War, the “revolution in military affairs,” and the need for sustainability. Current arms deliveries are making only token progress in correcting the qualitative defects in Southern Gulf forces, and no meaningful progress in being made towards integrating the Southern Gulf countries under the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Abdelwahab El-Affendi
  • Publication Date: 01-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster
  • Abstract: Sudan – Africa's largest country (area: 2.5 million square kilometres; population: 36 million) – has been described as a microcosm of the continent, as it embodies the continent's characteristic ethnic and religious diversity. The majority of its inhabitants (70 per cent) are Muslim. The rest adhere to traditional African beliefs (25 per cent) or various Christian denominations (5 per cent). The majority of Muslims are Arabic speaking (though not all are ethnically Arab), and Arabic is both the official language and the lingua franca. However, over 500 ethnic groups live in Sudan, and some 75 languages are spoken in the country. The bulk of the Arabic-speaking Muslims live in the north, while the south is inhabited by a predominantly non-Arab and non-Muslim population.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Religion
  • Political Geography: Sudan, Middle East, Arabia
  • Publication Date: 11-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: The third consultation in the 'Living with the Megapower: Implications of the war on terrorism' series explored the role of religion and ideology in the causes behind the events of 11 September 2001 and the subsequent reaction to these events. The importance of public opinion and the impact of the media were also examined in the day-long session. Were old theses like Samuel P Huntington's 'clash of civilizations' now more relevant or do we need new concepts and approaches to better understand the growing importance of religion and ideology in the language, culture and politics of the current 'war on terrorism'?
  • Topic: Security, Religion, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Author: Michaela C. Hertkorn
  • Publication Date: 07-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia International Affairs Online
  • Abstract: “There is the perception that, while France is a complicated country, but not posing a problem, Germany is not a complicated case, but can pose a problem.” ”America and Germany will never drift apart. We have never been closer. Any tensions are simply due to 'Reibungsverluste durch Nähe'. It is a relationship of grown up kids with their parents.
  • Topic: NATO, International Organization
  • Political Geography: America, Europe, Middle East
  • Publication Date: 07-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Japan Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The prospects for Middle East peace remain very dim. The Palestinians feel a growing sense of despair at the continuing occupation and the poor prospects for peace, while the Israelis are extremely uneasy about the escalation of terrorism and the ultimate destination of the Middle East peace process. A wide gap separates the two groups' views on the objectives of peace, and bridging this gap is a central issue in today's peace process. The trust that the parties managed to cultivate from the early 1990s has vanished like mist, and there is significant mutual distrust between Chairman Arafat and Prime Minister Sharon.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Asia
  • Author: Philip H. Gordon
  • Publication Date: 12-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: Most Americans see the regime of Saddam Hussein as a major threat to regional and international security that must be thwarted, even if that means threatening or even using military force. If Saddam were to acquire nuclear weapons, they fear, he would seek to use them to dominate the Middle East, possibly invading his neighbours as he has in the past and perhaps deterring the United States from stopping him. His nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, moreover, might end up in the hands of Islamic terrorists who would show no compunction about using them against the United States, or Saddam himself might do so out of a thirst for vengeance. Whereas failure to act in Iraq would make a mockery of the United Nations Security Council and international law, a decisive action to topple Saddam would liberate the Iraqi people, allow the United States to lift sanctions on Iraq and withdraw its forces from Saudi Arabia, and perhaps make progress toward a freer and more democratic Middle East.
  • Topic: Security, NATO
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, United Nations
  • Author: Martin Ortega
  • Publication Date: 12-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: UNSC Resolution 1441 has given the Iraqi regime a last opportunity to abandon any WMD programmes. If Iraq does not comply fully with the resolution or if inspections show that Iraq is indeed hiding WMD, the Security Council will have to consider the situation and decide what measures must be taken to maintain international peace and security.
  • Topic: Security, NATO
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Europe, Middle East
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez
  • Publication Date: 10-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: Over the past decade the combination of UN weapons inspections, sanctions-based containment, and military deterrence have succeeded in reducing the threat from Iraq's nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and ballistic missiles. During the 1990s the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) systematically dismantled most of Iraq's prohibited weapons. The continuing UN arms embargo and controls on Iraqi oil revenues have curtailed Saddam Hussein's efforts to rebuild his war machine.
  • Topic: Security, Diplomacy, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez
  • Publication Date: 06-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: Concerns are growing that Iraq may be rebuilding its capacity to develop and use weapons of mass destruction. After more than three years without UN inspections, the uncertainties and risks associated with Iraq's weapons programs have increased. The urgency of these issues has prompted widespread calls for the resumption of UN weapons inspections, and has led U.S. officials to threaten military attack. The U.S. threats are also motivated by a desire to overthrow the government of Iraq. Pundits in the United States have raised a chorus of calls for military action to topple Saddam Hussein. Many leaders in the region support the goal of disarming Iraq, but as U.S. vice president Dick Cheney learned during his March trip to the Middle East, most of these same leaders oppose U.S. military action against Iraq. States in the region fear the consequences of a U.S.-led war, especially in light of the profound security crisis in the Middle East. These realities suggest the need for viable alternative strategies to resolve the Iraq crisis and protect regional security. This report presents policy options available to the United States for addressing security concerns in Iraq. It examines the issues associated with the threat of weapons development in the region and offers a series of policy options for reducing and containing that threat without resort to military force. The report does not dwell on the uncertainties and risks of waging war on Iraq without international consent. These have been amply examined in other articles and commentaries. The paper concentrates instead on robust alternatives to the use of force. The policy options outlined here include: Reforming UN sanctions to tighten controls on oil revenues and military-related goods while further easing restrictions on civilian economic activity; Facilitating the return of UN weapons inspectors to complete the UN disarmament mandate and reestablish an Ongoing Monitoring and Verification (OMV) system; and Creating an "enhanced containment" system of externally based border monitoring and control if Iraq refuses to allow the resumption of weapons inspections. The report begins with an assessment of Iraq's capacity for developing weapons of mass destruction. It then examines options for controlling Iraq's weapons potential through economic statecraft, United Nations weapons inspections and diplomatic engagement with neighboring countries.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, United Nations
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: David Cortright, George A. Lopez, Linda M. Gerber
  • Publication Date: 04-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: An impeccable logic makes arms embargoes a potentially powerful instrument in the array of United Nations (UN) peace- and security-building mechanisms. By denying aggressors and human rights abusers the implements of war and repression, arms embargoes contribute directly to preventing and reducing the level of armed conflict. There could hardly be a more appropriate tool for international peacemaking. Moreover, in constricting only selected weapons and military-related goods and services, and in denying these to ruling elites, their armies, and other violent combatants, arms embargoes constitute the quintessential example of a smart sanction. Not only do arms embargoes avoid doing harm to vulnerable and innocent civilian populations; the better the embargoes' enforcement, the more innocent lives are likely to be saved.
  • Topic: Security, Peace Studies, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Author: Roland Dannreuther
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The Middle East is the region where Europeans have, arguably, most strongly felt their loss of great power status. During the nineteenth century, European powers encroached upon, occupied and annexed various territories in the Middle East. With the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire after World War 1, Britain, and to a lesser degree France, became the undisputed external actors in the region and in large part created the modern Middle Eastern state system. Although a certain degree of power was devolved to local leaders, Britain and France ensured their prerogatives over foreign and defence issues and assumed responsibility for regional stability. Other powers, such as the Soviet Union and the United States, were not absent from the region but did not essentially challenge the European hegemony. The Soviet Union's power projection had been greatly reduced in the aftermath of revolution, civil war and internal consolidation; the United States deliberately abstained from assuming a political role, with all its tainted colonial connotations, and only demanded an 'open doors' policy in relation to its trade and commercial interests. In this relatively unchallenged strategic environment, Britain had a remarkable freedom to act as the principal regional security actor. In practice, the period of British dominance was to be relatively brief, being characterised by one historian as 'Britain's moment' in the Middle East, and was also increasingly to be frustrated by the growing inter-ethnic conflict in Palestine.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Britain, Europe, Middle East, France, Soviet Union
  • Author: Shahram Chubin, Jerold D. Green
  • Publication Date: 06-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: At previous RAND-GCSP workshops in 1999 and 2001, participants examined, respectively, possible roles for NATO in the Middle East and the challenges to Turkey as both a European and Middle Eastern actor. The 2002 workshop, scheduled for June 23-25, 2002, was originally intended to take a broad look at issues relating to Southwest Asia, where Europe and the United States have long grappled with a range of strategic and political differences. However, in light of the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001 and the subsequent U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan, the organisers decided to refocus the workshop around the specific theme of terrorism and asymmetric conflict in Southwest Asia. The workshop focused on both the global and regional aspects of the terrorist threat.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia
  • Author: Ravit Richter, Ariella Vraneski
  • Publication Date: 05-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University
  • Abstract: The mass media is part and parcel of modern life. In recent years environmental conflicts have increasingly become part of the public agenda, and they now gain vast media coverage. While all agree that fully functioning media sectors are essential for expanding and supporting democracy on global, national, and local levels alike, many claim that the media's interference, by definition, escalates conflicts. Recent studies confirm that many roles can be attributed to media coverage, including some that lead conflicts toward constructive resolutions. The hypothesis of our research is that through frames, the media is both influenced by and influential with regard to the conflict's dynamics.
  • Topic: Environment, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel