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Begin New Search Political Geography Middle East Content Type Working Paper Publication Year within 5 Years

1. Unemployment and Social Crisis in Tunisia

Author:
Vasco Molini
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The decade since the 2010–11 Jasmine revolution has been particularly difficult for Tunisia. The trend of poverty reduction that started in the early 2000s has lost steam, with poverty rates increasing again in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and spatial inequalities remaining high. Moreover, the labour market is afflicted by persistent structural problems: high unemployment, high informality and low levels of participation among women and youth. Given the limited opportunities offered by the local labour market, Tunisians increasingly find in emigration the solution to cope with their dire economic and social situation.
Topic:
Migration, Economy, Unemployment, Labor Market, and Social Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

2. The Default Policy Option: Chaos

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Chaos in the territories poses a security problem to Israel, but such a problem is less acute if the Palestinian militias vying for influence compete with each other.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

3. Progress toward a breakthrough in Saudi-Israeli relations: ‘Haste is from the Devil’

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The positive and businesslike approach that marked the meeting of the Negev Forum Steering Committee and Working Groups in Abu Dhabi (January 9-10, 2023) proves that the drive to entrench and deepen the Abraham Accords is still ongoing despite the change of government in Israel. Hopes for a breakthrough in Saudi-Israeli relations are also still being nurtured, reflected in practical steps already taken. Moreover, the issue was raised with Jake Sullivan during his visit to Israel. Still, as the Arab saying goes, al-’ajalah min al-shaytan – haste is from the devil – and premature pronouncements have done more harm than good. The change will not come overnight: the Palestinian issue is still a stumbling block, and political dynamics in the Kingdom are complex, at least as long as King Salman still reins in some of his son’s ambitions.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Leadership, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Saudi Arabia

4. Violating the Temple Mount’s Legal Status? Where is the Violation?

Author:
Yifa Segal
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The recent visit to the Temple Mount by a government minister raises again the question of the legal status of the Mount, the content and circumstances of the status quo, and the legal questions of Israeli and international law regarding visits there by Jews.
Topic:
International Law, Religion, Territorial Disputes, and Discrimination
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

5. There are certain times when national security challenges must overcome a divided nation

Author:
Efraim Inbar, Yaakov Amidror, and Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel is facing a series of critical decisions in the national security arena, and the necessary condition for dealing with those challenges is maintaining maximum national cohesion. Therefore, lowering the flames in the current public debates and reaching a compromise is imperative.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, National Security, Leadership, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

6. Are the Palestinians More Violent in Ramadan?

Author:
Hillel Frisch
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israeli officials and the media continuously warn about the dangers of the upcoming Ramadan, on the assumption that Palestinians are more violent during that period. However, this assumption is highly problematic in analyzing the data on Palestinian violence during Ramadan compared with the rest of the year.
Topic:
Religion, Media, Discrimination, and Violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Israel

7. The Egyptian Financial Crisis: Implications for the region, and for Israel too

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Egypt continues to play an active role in regional affairs, including the Aqaba emergency meeting on the Palestinian situation (February 26) and the ongoing effort to prevent escalation in Gaza. At the same time, Cairo is in the middle of a significant financial crisis. The effects of the war in Ukraine – specifically, grain shortages – brought the Egyptian pound to more than 30 to the dollar, up from 20 in November and 15 in early 2022, facilitated by deliberate government action in response to demands by the IMF. Inflation still soars, and so does youth unemployment. All this could destabilize a nation of 105 million on our border, with dire consequences.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Conflict, Fiscal Policy, and Financial Stability
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, Egypt, and MENA

8. Iraq’s Quest for a Social Contract: An Approach to Promoting Social Cohesion and State Resilience

Author:
Wolfgang Mühlberger
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This study sets out to examine state-society relations in Iraq through the conceptual lens of the social contract and also provides a starting point for deriving potential areas of activity for external actors, such as German development cooperation (DC) and technical cooperation (TC). These players could provide support for the re-negotiation of this fraught mesh of relationships. This analysis is founded on a concept of the social contract in which the relationship between the government and those it governs is viewed primarily as a process of negotiation and can be operationalised, for instance, on the basis of the three Ps (participation, provision and protection). As such, the concept is informed both by contemporary approaches and by traditional reflections of French and Anglo-Saxon thinkers, who focus on the restriction of individual freedoms in return for the provision of legal certainty by the state. This study is divided into three sections. The first section explores weak statehood and the breakdown of society in the heuristic context of the social contract. The role of external actors in Iraq’s post-2003 development is then examined in the next section, which takes a closer look at the political system of proportional representation and its socio-political implications. Finally, the third section synthesises the first two by considering how external actors from the development cooperation sector might contribute to the peaceful negotiation of Iraq’s dysfunctional social contract. These reflections are made against the systemic backdrop of a rentier state with a hybrid form of governance and take account of the extremely fragile government-society relationship on the one hand, and external interventions, which have largely failed to date, on the other. In this context, the shortcomings of the largely dysfunctional Iraqi social contract become apparent and at the same time provide starting points for its improvement and renegotiation.
Topic:
Development, Social Cohesion, Social Contract, Resilience, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Germany

9. Recipe for Success: Israeli and Lebanese Analytical Perspectives on the Maritime Delimitation Negotiations

Author:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The Israel-Lebanon maritime boundary agreement is not a direct agreement between the two countries, but rather two separate agreements with the United States. It is unique: the first such agreement reached between countries with no diplomatic relations, the first between adjacent states in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the first in the region to be resolved through indirect negotiations facilitated by a mediator. A confluence of domestic and geopolitical events contributed to the signing of the agreement, including elections in Israel, the deterioration of Lebanon’s economy and the country’s descent into political crisis, and the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the global energy market. Effective mediation between parties was more important than the degree of trust the parties had in the mediator or the mediator’s relative neutrality on the issue. The United States was not an unbiased mediator, but because of its own incentives to deliver an agreement and its leverage over both parties it was the only possible one. International oil and gas companies influenced the negotiations, but did not directly participate in them. Due to their vested interest in securing their existing or prospective investments, they used public communications and discrete engagements with the Israeli and Lebanese governments to encourage a deal. This agreement could serve as a model for other maritime disputes by demonstrating at least two things. Firstly, solutions can be achieved when parties delink their maritime negotiations from the core issues in their bilateral relationship. Secondly, if two sides are committed to reaching an agreement, the international law of the sea is sufficiently flexible for them to find a solution, even when one party is a signatory of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and the other is not.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Maritime, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

10. Russia at War and the Islamic World

Author:
Marlène Laruelle
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
While Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has resulted in a decoupling with the West on a scale not seen since the worst years of the Cold War, Russia has not been isolated from the non-Western world and has even reinvested its diplomatic energy toward the Global South. This paper focuses on Russia’s relationships with the Islamic world and how they have been transformed — or not — by the Ukraine war. It discusses both Russia’s “internal” Islamic realm and how the Middle East has reacted to the strategic tectonic shift unleashed by the war and Western sanctions. It explains that the role and place of Islam in Russia have been reinforced by the war context, as Islamic institutions and Muslims are seen by the Russian regime as among the most loyal constituencies. It concludes that the main Middle Eastern regional powers have been able to consolidate their transactional foreign policies and use the war to assert their autonomy toward Western actors so that Russia’s weakening does not result in the West’s increased influence but in a more multipolar order.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islam, Multipolarity, Regional Power, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Middle East

11. Balancing Security and Innovation: Opposition's View on Turkey's Digital Policies

Author:
Mesut Özcan and Ussal Şahbaz
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey on May 14, 2023, are expected to be closely contested. Polls suggest that the ruling AK Party-led People’s Alliance will lose its majority in parliament, resulting in a hung lower house. This would create an opportunity for multiparty dialogue and temporary alliances on specific policy issues, leading to legislation that is the result of multiparty bargaining rather than the agenda of a dominant party. Against this backdrop, it is crucial to understand the Turkish opposition’s views on a variety of policy issues, with digital policies being a particularly underexplored one. At the intersection of political, economic, and technological issues, digital policies are regulations that have to adapt to a rapidly changing landscape of technological advances on a global scale. Turkey, as a regional power and an upper-middle-income economy, has attempted to take advantage of technological innovations to further promote economic growth and national security purposes. However, the AK Party government's efforts have been met with skepticism from opposition groups as they have fallen short of protecting individual rights and freedoms online. The study is organized into four sections, with an analysis of the political situation on the eve of the upcoming elections, a description of the technological ecosystem in Turkey, an analysis of the evolution of digital policies in Turkey under the AK Party’s successive governments, and a detailed overview of the main opposition parties' digital policy positions. This study thus provides insight into the future of digital policies in Turkey and the potential impact of the upcoming elections on this pivotal issue.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Digital Economy, Internet, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

12. A Fractured Border: Syria, Türkiye, and Cantonization

Author:
Armenak Tokmajyan and Kheder Khaddour
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Several factors related to the civil war in Syria have engendered the cantonization of the country’s north. From east to west, five northern border regions are to various degrees self-governing, though four are backed by, and even dependent on, Türkiye. Ongoing indirect negotiations between Türkiye and Syria—which were previously at loggerheads—may result in an adjustment of the boundaries of these cantons, but will not alter, let alone reverse, the phenomenon of cantonization.
Topic:
Governance, Syrian War, Borders, and Cantonization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

13. Rethinking the EU’s Approach to Women’s Rights in Iran

Author:
Barbara Mittelhammer, Tara Sepehri Far, and Sussan Tahmasebi
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After the death of twenty-two-year-old Mahsa (Jina) Amini in the custody of Iran’s morality police on September 16, 2022, protests quickly spread throughout the country under the slogan of “Woman, Life, Freedom.” Amini’s death galvanized a movement that connects women’s individual freedom to choose their dress code to the systemic social, political, and economic grievances of a larger population that is demanding fundamental change. In claiming the realization of their basic rights, Iranians are revolting against a system that not only oppresses women and peaceful dissent but also continues to fail to meet citizens’ needs. This fight, which has attracted global solidarity, highlights the core message that when women’s rights are marginalized to nonexistence, human rights for all are at risk. The protests have taken place amid mounting repression of organized peaceful activism, a continuing deterioration of Iranians’ basic rights, and a host of economic ills, including rising inequality, increasing poverty, worsening living conditions, skyrocketing food prices, raging inflation, and rising unemployment. Three years of the coronavirus pandemic as well as decades-long comprehensive economic and financial sanctions have gravely added to the socioeconomic calamity. On top of this economic insecurity, precarious and perilous working conditions had already sparked increasing protests in Iran in recent years, resulting in the government’s harsh crackdown on human rights activists and civil society as well as further infringements on rights, including internet shutdowns, even before current events. Repression and the deterioration of Iran’s socioeconomic conditions have aggravated the situation for women in particular. Especially in recent years leading up to the current protests, this trend has hindered Iranian women’s ability to mobilize, protest, and achieve the full realization of their rights. Those who experience intersecting discrimination because of their minority background or social status are impacted even more if they live in rural areas, which are less developed than urban ones, or in areas on Iran’s border, which the state views predominantly through a security lens. The international response to Iran’s very poor human rights record and current protests, however, has lacked a holistic approach that considers women’s key role as agents of change and encompasses civil and political as well as social and economic rights as integral components of women’s rights. In fact, women’s rights and gender equality are not only goals in themselves but also enable the realization of fundamental rights of other marginalized groups, such as children and minorities. Moreover, women’s rights and gender equality are the strongest indicators of and preconditions for sustainable and peaceful societies, both internally and externally. Yet, the European Union’s (EU’s) current approach to Iran does not account for this reality. Over the past years, the EU’s policy toward the country has focused on negotiations to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) after Washington’s withdrawal from the deal in 2018. The current situation in Iran urgently highlights the need for a policy framework that responds to the government’s repression and gross human rights violations and, equally, considers the disastrous socioeconomic situation in the country, which is a key obstacle to the public’s ability to organize to realize its rights. Given the importance of economic precarity and socioeconomic inequality in the current revolt, the EU should adopt policies that can support the protesters’ rights and demands in the short term while considering a revised long-term approach centered on empowering Iranians in their efforts to create long-lasting democratic change.
Topic:
Human Rights, European Union, Women, and Protests
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, and Middle East

14. China’s Response to Türkiye’s Volatile Authoritarianism

Author:
Ceren Ergenç and Kenan Göçer
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
This paper investigates Türkiye’s evolving relations with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a large-scale program of infrastructure investment and project financing proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. The paper digs deeply into cases from two sectors—transportation and energy—focusing on how heightened and changing local expectations among Turks for these prospective BRI projects have shaped choices and outcomes, including China’s. In so doing, it explores how these shifting Turkish perceptions affect the implementation of BRI projects in Türkiye. This paper has several goals: it seeks to understand the reasons behind these local changes, the role of the state and private sector in Türkiye in these changes, and the way China has responded so far. Of course, domestic factors are not the only ones that shape the implementation of BRI projects in Türkiye or elsewhere; regional and global trends have had an impact too.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Infrastructure, Authoritarianism, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Investment
Political Geography:
China, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

15. Structural transformation and sources of growth in Turkey

Author:
Ahmet Ihsan Kaya and Cumhur Çiçekçi
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the supply and demand side of structural transformation in Turkey. Using the GGDC/UNU-WIDER Economic Transformation Database, we find that labour productivity improvements explain more than half of economic growth in the period 1980–2021. This is mainly thanks to within-sector productivity improvements, while the contribution of structural change declines over time. Time-series regression analysis shows that structural change is driven by per capita income growth and financial openness but is halted by trade integration. Furthermore, decomposition analysis from input– output tables demonstrates that domestic final demand has been the main source of output growth since 1980 and the contribution of export expansion has increased over time, but import dependency has persisted. The intermediate goods industry stands out as the locomotive sector in the economy throughout the entire period according to forward and backward linkage analysis.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Productivity, Income, Supply and Demand, and Structural Transformation
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

16. European aid to the MENA region after the Arab uprisings: A window of opportunity missed

Author:
Thilo Bodenstein and Mark Furness
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
European official development assistance to Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries increased sharply after 2011, ostensibly in support of the social, economic, and above all political changes demanded by the Arab uprisings. The subsequent turn to development policies driven by security and anti-migration agendas, especially following the Syria refugee crisis in the autumn of 2015, raises the question whether initial expressions of support for democratic transformation expressed by European donors were ever backed by concrete measures. This paper discusses this question with an exploratory review of the policy and practice dimensions of four European MENA aid programmes between 2011 and 2016. The policy dimension is explored via an analysis of available documents from the EU, France, Germany, and the UK. The practice dimension is discussed with reference to OECD-DAC aid data on bilateral aid to MENA countries, focusing on aid in the social infrastructure and services sector, and in particular on the government and civil society sub-category. Our analysis reveals that, while all donors promised to support democracy in MENA countries, none had a clear strategy for doing so via their development cooperation. At the practice level, while programmes and projects were aimed at supporting change in specific contexts, increases in aid were mostly unrelated to political change. This indicates a preference for avoiding risks, which served to underpin the region’s political and socio-economic status quo. Accordingly, European donors missed an opportunity to test whether their aid could make a difference in supporting democratic transformation in the MENA. The social, economic, and political tensions behind the Arab uprisings remain unresolved more than a decade on, meaning that there is likely a need to learn lessons from the period following 2011.
Topic:
Development, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Development Assistance
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

17. Trade sanctions and informal employment

Author:
Ali Moghaddasi Kelishomi and Robert Nisticò
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines how trade sanctions affect the allocation of workers across formal and informal employment. We analyse the case of the unexpected and unprecedented trade sanctions imposed on Iran in 2012. We use a difference-in-differences approach and compare the probability of working in the informal sector before and after 2012 for individuals employed in industries with pre-existing different levels of exposure to international trade. Combining employment data from the Iranian Labour Force Survey and trade data from Iran’s Customs Administration database for the years 2008–14, we find that workers employed in industries initially facing higher exposure to trade are significantly more likely to experience informal employment in the years after 2012 than workers employed in industries with lower trade exposure. This result suggests that, in the short run, the informal sector may absorb a significant fraction of workers displaced by the trade shock caused by the sanctions. We estimate that the increase in informal employment is highest for poorly educated workers, highlighting the unequal labour market consequences of trade sanctions. We exclude that industries differentially exposed to international trade were already following a different trend in the share of informal employment in the years prior to 2012, thus providing empirical support for the validity of our identification strategy. Moreover, we show that our main result holds when accounting for potential sorting issues by an instrumental variable approach. Our findings shed light on a potentially important dimension of labour reallocation whereby trade sanctions can affect the economy of the target country. They also provide important implications for policies designed to address informal employment and to assist trade-displaced workers.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Sanctions, Employment, Trade, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

18. Erdoğan's Re-election as President Raises Concerns among Allies

Author:
Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s win in the presidential election and ministerial appointments promises to further weaken democracy, move Türkiye further away from EU standards, and continue so-called personal diplomacy and transactionalism in foreign policy. This could prolong the Turkish parliament’s ratification of Sweden’s accession to NATO.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Elections, European Union, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Sweden

19. West and China Compete for Tech Influence in Arab Persian Gulf States

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
New technologies are an increasingly important element of the Sino-American rivalry in the Persian Gulf. China has become the preferred partner in this area due to, for example, the dominant role of government (vs. private) investment in the technology sector in both China and the Gulf states. The intensification of cooperation between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and China in the field of new technologies may increase the influence of authoritarian states in setting technological standards.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Investment, Rivalry, and Gulf Cooperation Council
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

20. China Becoming Globally More Active in the Security Sphere

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
China is expanding its potential to project power abroad. It includes legal changes, expansion of military infrastructure in other countries, and cooperation with partners in the Pacific. An example of their activity in the field of security is the operations of Chinese security companies, mainly in the Middle East and Africa. This should encourage NATO to further deepen cooperation with its members and partners, including with Pacific countries, as well as to strengthen the coordination of EU and U.S. policy towards developing countries.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Infrastructure, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Middle East, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

21. Prison Hunger Strikes in Palestine: A Strategic Perspective

Author:
Malaka Mohammed Shwaikh and Rebecca Gould
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (ICNC)
Abstract:
This publication is the first major transnational examination of prison hunger strikes. While focusing on Palestine, the research is enriched by extensive interviews and conversations with South African, Kurdish, Irish, and British ex-prisoners and hunger strikers. This study reveals in unprecedented detail how prison hunger strikes achieve monumental feats of resistance through the weaponization of lives. How do prison hunger strikers achieve demands? How do they stay connected with the outside world in a space that is designed to cut them off from that world? And why would a prisoner put their lives at risk by refusing to eat or, at times, drink? This research shows that sometimes prisoners’ need for dignity (karamah) and freedom (hurriya) trump their hunger pangs and thirst. Prison Hunger Strikes in Palestine evaluates the process of hunger striking, including the repressive actions prisoners encounter, and the negotiation process. It analyzes differences and similarities between individual and collective strikes, and evaluates the role and impact of solidarity actions from outside the prison walls. The work’s critical and grassroots understanding of prison hunger strikes fully centers the voices of hunger strikers. The analysis results in actionable takeaways that will be as useful to prison activists as they will be to their allies around the world.
Topic:
Prisons/Penal Systems, Hunger, Conflict, Repression, and Activim
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

22. Tradition and Protest: The Druze Community in Lebanese Politics

Author:
Moran Levanoni
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our new issue of al-Durziyya: Druze and Other Minorities in the Middle East, Dr. Moran Levanoni analyzes political trends among the Druze community and their impact on Lebanese politics in the last parliamentary election. This article suggests that the political, social, and economic crises Lebanon is going through affected voting patterns within the Druze community, allowing new members to participate instead of the old guard of traditional politicians.
Topic:
Politics, Minorities, Hezbollah, and Druze
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

23. Turkey is not the US and Kılıçdaroğlu is not Obama

Author:
Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak focuses on the recent May 2023 elections. He highlights the importance of sectarian identity as one factor underlying President Erdoğan's victory, which came despite the deteriorating economy, the earthquake disaster, and strong polling for his opponent.
Topic:
Sectarianism, Elections, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Earthquake, and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

24. Can Turkish Jews Act as a Bridge in Israeli-Turkish Economic Relations?

Author:
Onur Yılmaz
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
This issue of Turkeyscope focuses on Israeli-Turkish economic relations. While highlighting the emerging challenges that may diminish Turkish Jews' traditional role, Onur Yilmaz of Izmir's Ege University analyzed the prospects of the economic relations by shedding a light on their contributions to the prosperity of both nations.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Minorities, Economy, and Jewish community
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

25. Deciphering Erdoğan's Regional Paradigm Shifts

Author:
Ofra Bengio
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Professor Ofra Bengio analyses the trajectory of Turkish foreign and domestic policies by examining three paradigms in Erdogan's strategy since the early 2000s. In addition, we offer our sincere condolences to the victims of the earthquake last week.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Weapons, Arab Spring, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, and Middle East

26. The Druze Protest in the Summer of 2023

Author:
Omri Eilat
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
The current issue of Bayan contains an essay by Dr. Omri Eilat, which deals with the characteristics of the protest in the Druze communities in the north of the country that erupted following the Israeli government’s intention to establish a turbine farm in the Golan at the beginning of this summer. The essay analyzes the origins of the protest and its possible effects on the relationship between the Druze community and state authorities.
Topic:
Minorities, Protests, Wind Power, Druze, Energy, and Arabs
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Golan Heights

27. Without a state, within the State: Arab citizens in Israel and the judicial protests

Author:
Maysoun Ershead Shehadeh
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
The current issue of Bayan is being published amidst an emotional public and political controversy over the reform of the judicial system in the State of Israel, and deals with the Arab public’s position on the judicial reform. The article by Dr. Maysoun Ershead Shehadeh deals with the participation of Arab citizens in the public protest against the judicial reform.
Topic:
Minorities, Protests, Judiciary, and Arabs
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

28. The changes in the legal system and their effect on the regime and the Palestinian minority in Israel

Author:
Manal Totry Jubran
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
The current issue of Bayan is being published amidst an emotional public and political controversy over the reform of the judicial system in the State of Israel, and deals with the Arab public’s position on the judicial reform. The article by Dr. Manal Totry Jubran surveys the proposed changes to the Israeli judicial system and their effect on Arab citizens.
Topic:
Minorities, Reform, Domestic Politics, Protests, Judiciary, and Palestinians
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

29. Autonomy Curbed? Kurdish Oil Exports Hit Snags from Turkey and Baghdad

Author:
Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this new edition of Tel Aviv Notes, Josh Krasna examines the implications of the closure of the pipeline that delivered oil from the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq to Turkey's Ceyhan port, focusing on the state of relations between Erbil and Baghdad.
Topic:
Oil, Economy, Exports, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

30. Global Terrorism Index 2023

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from TerrorismTracker and other sources. TerrorismTracker provides event records on terrorist attacks since 1 January 2007. The dataset contains almost 66,000 terrorist incidents for the period 2007 to 2022. In 2022, deaths from terrorism fell by nine per cent to 6,701 deaths and is now 38 per cent lower than at its peak in 2015. The fall in deaths was mirrored by a reduction in the number of incidents, with attacks declining by almost 28 per cent from 5,463 in 2021 to 3,955 in 2022. However, if Afghanistan was removed from the index, terrorism deaths would have increased by four per cent. Afghanistan remained the country most impacted by terrorism for the fourth consecutive year, despite attacks and deaths falling by 75 per cent and 58 per cent respectively. The GTI does not include acts of state repression and violence by state actors and, as such, acts committed by the Taliban are no longer included in the scope of the report since they took control of the government.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Finance, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Global Focus

31. Governance Practices in Turkey: A Comparative Perspective

Author:
Dimitris Tsarouhas
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Turkey’s latest National Development Plan seeks to attain economic and social development equal to that of the world’s most prosperous states. By structuring expectations and incentives for economic and political actors, institutions play a key role in achieving sustainable, long-term development. This paper provides a systematic longitudinal analysis of core governance indicators which shed light on Turkey’s evolution over time from a comparative perspective. The results point to a sharp decline in the institutional efficacy of the Turkish apparatus of state vis a vis core aspects of the country’s development agenda, especially with regard to the rule of law, public administration, regulatory capacity, and predictability. Turkey’s declining scores in recent years fly in the face of its political agenda and severely undermine welfare gains made in the early 21st century.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Governance, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

32. Turkey’s Kurds: Kingmakers in the upcoming elections?

Author:
Evangelos Areteos and Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Surveys show profound changes in the social attitudes of Kurds in Turkey. Younger Kurds are more liberal socially and more flexible politically. The years 2015–2016 marked a turning point for Kurdish society and brought different attitudes to light among both impoverished and middle-class Kurds. The AKP has been losing Kurdish support because of their alliance with the nationalist MHP and policies perceived as being anti-Kurdish. The CHP, while starting very low, has been gaining Kurdish support. The CHP’s strategy of reconciliation and talking about crimes committed against the Kurds in the past has been paying off. While the “Table of Six” does not offer much in the way of concrete benefits for the Kurds, some parties in the People’s Alliance (e.g. Deva, Gelecek) are more progressive vis-a-vis Kurdish demands.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Kurds, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

33. Hydrodiplomacy and the Food, Water and Energy Nexus: A holistic approach for transboundary cooperation and peace

Author:
Fadi Comair
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The rapid social and economic development in the world is leading to increased levels of water stress that point to potential water crises. As the most vital and strategic of natural resources, water can serve as an instrument of domination or of cooperation. Given the presence of key geopolitical concerns in the Near East, regional hydro-diplomatic cooperation is necessary to ensure fair sharing of the resource and to avoid additional tensions and conflict. Nine of the seventeen EMME countries are below the absolute water scarcity threshold of 500 m3/year per capita, including all six countries in the Gulf region, Jordan and Palestine. Those countries that share major transboundary basins in the EMME region such as the Nile, Jordan and Tigris-Euphrates basins are subject to multiple challenges which include unilateral water resources management, water scarcity, and environmental degradation leading to food insecurity. Hydrodiplomacy is a tool for applying integrated water resource management at a national and transboundary level in accordance with a cooperative model seeking peace among riparian countries. Multiple UN agencies contribute to bringing riparian countries together with a view to fostering dialogue and the sharing of information on water management and transboundary cooperation.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Water, Food, Geopolitics, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

34. The Syrian Civil War Twelve Years On: Can There Be a Constructive Role for Greece?

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Loukas I. Papavasileiou
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Continual and ever-growing foreign involvement led to the internationalization of the armed conflict and turned Syria into a battleground for the strategic competition of several powers. The Kremlin has long viewed Hafez and Bashar al-Assad as indispensable partners in the Middle East and has repeatedly offered its diplomatic and military support in an attempt to achieve its own strategic objectives. Given the destabilizing effects the unending Syrian crisis has had on Middle Eastern and Eastern Mediterranean security, Greece maintains a profound interest in the resolution of the conflict. Greece appointed a Special Envoy for Syria in May 2020 with a view to reinvigorating its policy vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis. Greece’s successful re-engagement with key Arab countries and improved relations with other regional actors could pave the way for a more prominent Greek role in Syria. This could entail reinforcing its diplomatic cooperation with the EU Delegation to Syria, leading the EU humanitarian relief effort following the devastating earthquakes that hit Syria on 6 February 2023, and formulating a realistic and forward-looking strategy for the future of the Syrian people, including provisions for the voluntary repatriation of refugees and the protection of minority rights.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Refugees, Political stability, Syrian War, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Greece, and Syria

35. Dersimli Kemal for President?

Author:
Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
As of 6 March 2023, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, chairman of the CHP, is the joint candidate of the largest Opposition alliance. As such, for the first time, an Alevi has the chance of occupying one of the highest positions in Turkey. Since he is also Kurdish, he represents the two largest ethnic and confessional minorities in Turkey. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (74) was born in a small village in Dersim/Tunceli province. He managed to become the director of a state institution and has been the chairman of the CHP since 2010. The Alevi are by far the largest non-Sunni religious group in Turkey, representing roughly 15–20 percent of the population. There are huge differences in the definition of what an Alevi is, ranging from Anatolian Muslims to a branch of Shia Islam and from a religion in its own right to a culture. In both the Ottoman Empire and the Republic of Turkey, Alevis have been subject to persecution, discrimination and exclusion. In 1937/38, the state committed large-scale atrocities against the population of Dersim. The burning of a hotel in 1993 during an Alevi festival proved to be a turning point for Alevi awareness and civil society organization. The AKP launched an ‘Alevi opening’ in 2008 to address issues including recognition for Alevi places of worship and religious instruction; although the initiative continued until 2011, nothing concrete was achieved. Prejudices, discrimination and the othering of Alevis continue to this day. Since 2018, Kılıçdaroğlu has been the architect of the National Alliance; consisting of six diverse parties since 2022, the opposition group has been dubbed the ‘Table of Six’. In the summer of 2022, Alevi Cem Houses were attacked. President Erdoğan subsequently visited a Cem House for the first time in 15 years; in fall 2022, he announced the creation of a Directorate to deal with Alevi issues. On 14 May 2023, in the Republic’s centenary year, an Alevi could become president of Turkey. After many years of polarization, this could send out a message of unity, of differences bridged and differences accepted.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

36. A New New Turkey? What an Opposition Victory Would Mean for Ankara’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Nicholas Danforth
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The opposition foreign policy platform seeks to improve relations with the West while simultaneously continuing to pursue a more independent foreign policy. Securing the safe, voluntary and legal return of Syrian refugees through rapprochement with the Assad regime, as the opposition proposes, will prove a non-starter. Ultimately, a democratic Turkey that calibrates its foreign policy to the interests of its citizens rather than the interests of one man will be a stronger and more reliable actor on the global stage.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

37. Restoring Competitive Politics: Electoral Contestation and the Future in Turkey and India, and Iran and Russia

Author:
Hugh Sandeman
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
The institutions and practices necessary for open and fair competition for political power are eroding across the world. In some countries, such as Turkey and India, the democratic dividend of electoral competition has been steadily undermined by majoritarian autocrats who have proved adept in campaigning for office and winning elections. In others, such as Russia and Iran, political leaders have marginalised or suppressed electoral processes, reducing them to closely managed performances that seek to demonstrate public consent. At least some traces of the mechanisms of electoral competition often remain in place, however, even where genuine public consent has been almost extinguished. This leaves open the possibility that the trend away from competitive electoral politics could be at least partially reversed in future, in the context of political succession or the electoral defeat of incumbents. In June 2023, LSE IDEAS brought together experts from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and other institutions to examine the potential for restoring the democratic dividend of competitive politics in four major countries. Turkey and India were selected for their timeliness—national parliamentary and presidential elections were held in Turkey in May 2023, and national parliamentary elections are due in India in April 2024—and for their similarities: both political systems are characterised by powerful elected leaders with a strong record of performance in national elections, each backed by large political parties based on an appeal to national and religious identity. Iran and Russia were chosen as examples of two states where competitive electoral politics had been temporarily enabled by significant political change—respectively, an impasse in Iran’s theocracy in the 1990s, and the end of the Soviet Union—only to be undermined by the reassertion of autocratic power. Two assumptions underlay the planning of this discussion on ‘Restoring Competitive Politics: Electoral Contestation and the Future’. The first is that the characterisation of political systems as either democratic or autocratic provides an insufficient basis for explaining many differences in the workings of political institutions, or for guiding policy. The second assumption is that while certain institutions and practices appear to be essential to maintaining open competition for political power—including for example, freedom and diversity of comment in major channels of communication like broadcast television, radio, newspapers, and social media—there is no useful empirical example or theoretical formulation of an ideal or perfect democratic political system. The exclusion from the discussion of countries with longer established forms of competitive politics, such as the United States or the United Kingdom, was not intended to suggest an implicit comparison with ideal types of functioning democracies. On the contrary, there are grounds for concern about the maintenance of open competition for political power in every country professing to be a democracy. As David Runciman has said of the future of democratic practices: ‘The question for the twenty-first century is how long we can persist with institutional arrangements we have grown so used to trusting, that we no longer notice when they have ceased to work.’ He warns that ‘democracy could fail while remaining intact’.
Topic:
Elections, Political stability, Autocracy, and Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, India, and Asia

38. Towards a Sustainable Recovery for Lebanon’s Economy

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Ugo Panizza, Carmen Reinhart, Douglas Barrios, and Clement Brenot
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Lebanon’s current economic crisis ranks among the worst in recent history. GDP has collapsed by 38% in real terms. The Lebanese lira, which was fixed to the dollar in 1997, has lost more than 98% of its value on the parallel market. The government has defaulted on its debt, and depositors are unable to access their funds held at commercial banks. Consolidated public sector debt, including both government debt and commercial banks’ claims on the Banque du Liban (BdL), represents more than seven times the current GDP. Public services delivery has crumbled. In short, the country is undergoing a debt crisis, a banking crisis, a currency crisis, and a growth collapse. Four years into the crisis, a resolution remains elusive, and each passing day increases the economic and social burdens faced by the population. Given the increasing cost of delaying a resolution, we propose a strategy for Lebanon’s economic recovery that addresses all the dimensions of the crisis while recognizing the need to rapidly kick-start the economic recovery.
Topic:
Debt, GDP, Economy, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

39. Dispatches: Life Beyond the Borders

Author:
Shano Mohammed
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
I was born in March 1991, at the back of a lorry carrying nearly 100 women and children fleeing the horrors of Saddam Hussein’s regime. My life started amid the Kurdish uprising in Iraq, during which my family sought refuge in the Kurdish region of neighboring Iran. Being born under these circumstances, in war-torn, conflict-ridden, indeed blood-soaked Kurdistan, shaped my life and colored my personality in ways that I continue to discover every day. My mother was forced into a marriage at the age of twelve, to an older man, who abused her for sport. My faint memory of home is of the recurring cries, screams, aches, and pains of mother and daughters abused by father and brother, while outside the confines of my so-called home, everyday life teemed with loud explosions and airstrikes. Everyone seemed to proceed with their ordinary lives, but I could not.
Topic:
War, Kurds, and Memoir
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

40. China’s Grand Vision and the Persian Gulf

Author:
Anoushiravan Ehteshami
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
China’s engagement with Asian regions beyond its geographical periphery has grown exponentially since the 1990s and this is nowhere more evident than in West Asia and the Persian Gulf subregion. While energy drove China’s early interactions with the Gulf states, within two decades after the Cold War the relationships had evolved into much tighter networks of partnerships. China’s relations with the Gulf states, however, has not been uniform and the case studies of the United Arab Emirates and Iran highlight the complexities of China’s strategy in this subregion and the ways in which it actively pursues its diverse set of interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

41. From Threat to Opportunity: Harnessing Climate Change to Build a Prosperous Future for Iraq and the Region

Author:
Azzam Alwash
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Climate change and environmental degradation are adding serious strain to Iraqi coping capacities and governance mechanisms in a county already struggling with elevated water scarcity, instability and demographic growth. Widely recognised as a country at high-risk from climate change, Iraq faces the urgent need to diversify its economy away from hydrocarbon resources, while developing mechanisms of cooperation and co-dependency with regional neighbours to provide sustenance and opportunities to its youthful population. Drawing on Iraq’s history as a trade hub and bread basket for the region, Iraq and its neighbours need to urgently work together to overcome divisions and plan for a better future if the challenge of climate change is to be transformed into an opportunity capable of promoting stability and integration in an increasingly fragile Middle East.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Water, Sustainable Development Goals, and Energy
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

42. Transitional Justice in Iraq: The Challenges of National Healing and Recovery

Author:
Rend al-Rahim
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Transitional justice in Iraq is a record of squandered opportunities and compromised institutions. Over five decades, Iraqi society has endured human rights abuses on a wide scale, perpetrated by state and non-state actors. The post 2003 era offered a chance to heal wounds and promote national recovery by adopting policies of transparent judicial accountability, equitable reparations, truth-telling and documentation, and national reconciliation to repair the torn social fabric. Instead, in the immediate aftermath of the war of 2003, a victor’s justice prevailed, which deformed the principles of transitional justice and undermined its mechanisms through rampant sectarianism, clientelism and corruption, leading to new abuses, increased strife and deepening social fissures. Twenty years into the new political order, Iraqi policy-makers must reconsider their policies and reform their mechanisms to achieve social cohesion, or risk further social fragmentation and conflict.
Topic:
Human Rights, Transitional Justice, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

43. Factsheet: War on Terror

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The Global War on Terror (GWoT) is an international military campaign launched by the United States under President George W. Bush following the September 11th, 2001 attacks by Al-Qaeda. Dubbed the ‘Forever Wars,’ this conflict is a borderless and timeless campaign that has touched nearly 40 percent of the world, cost the United States an estimated $8 trillion, and has killed more than 900,000 people (although the actual death toll is likely to be much higher). The WoT discourse amplified Islamophobia as it dehumanized Muslims by tying them to terrorism and constructing them as ‘inherently violent’ and a threat. Along with formal military warfare, the WoT has also comprised of large-scale surveillance measures in the U.S, torture, global drone strikes, blacksites, and the Guantanamo Bay military prison.
Topic:
Torture, Drones, Surveillance, Islamophobia, War on Terror, George W. Bush, and Guantanamo Bay
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and United States of America

44. The Pitfalls of Saudi Arabia’s Security-Centric Strategy in Yemen

Author:
Ahmed Nagi
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia’s security-oriented approach to Yemen has foundered. The Saudi-led coalition has failed to defeat the Houthis militarily or to restore the government the group toppled. Moreover, Saudi militarization of the border with Yemen has damaged the Yemeni economy—with negative consequences for Saudi Arabia. Crucially, Saudi Arabia’s security is contingent on Yemen’s stability and economic prosperity. As such, Riyadh should contribute to reviving Yemen’s moribund economy, both in the borderlands and in the inland agricultural sector.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Economy, Conflict, and Instability
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

45. Innovation and New Directions: Searching for Novel Paths in Arab Education Reform

Author:
Wafa Al-Khadra, Shaikha Jabor Al-Thani, Nathan J. Brown, Heba El-Deghaidy, Rima Karami-Akkary, Marwan Muasher, and Christina Zacharia
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In October 2018, Carnegie published a report calling for fundamental educational reform in the Arab world and arguing for the need for that reform to move “from schooling to learning” in order to “serve the needs of pluralistic societies and foster the development of active, responsible citizens who are empowered to deal with complexity and advance constructive change.”1 The report gave a number of recommendations encompassing the different fields within which education takes place: the school, the state, and the society at large. This paper, with many of the authors of the first report participating again, attempts to go in further depth about the findings of the first report. It is evident that Arab governments still see education reform as a top-down effort that continues to perpetuate power relations and authoritarian thinking, sidelining critical and creative thinking among students. The paper places special emphasis on several reform efforts that are being implemented across the Arab region, many in a bottom-up approach that attempts a collaborative approach with governments but is not held hostage to old authoritarian thinking. Rather than simply admiring the problem, the paper attempts to highlight several experiences taking place within different Arab educational systems, not so much because these experiences are necessarily transportable but rather to point out that together with the challenges, there are also successes that can be built on. Consistent with Carnegie’s strategy of working with experts from the region, the paper has once again drawn on the practical experiences of experts from the Qatari, Jordanian, and Egyptian educational systems as well as from the regional, bottom-up experience of the TAMAM project, led by the Arab Thought Foundation and the American University of Beirut and spanning eight different countries. Under the able coordination and facilitation of Nathan J. Brown, these experts have authored a document that I hope will further contribute to the debate on education reform in the region—and help push it forward. I want to acknowledge the Asfari Foundation for their generous financing of this project, and hope that policy recommendations in this paper will help guide future education policies in the Arab world.
Topic:
Education, Reform, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

46. China Is Playing by Turkey’s Media Rules

Author:
Çağdaş Üngör
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Chinese players have localized their strategies to improve China’s image in Turkey in recent years. Although China and Turkey have long maintained friendly relations at the official level, Turkish people remained notably skeptical of China throughout the 2000s. Indeed, Turkey’s unfavorable public opinion has been a constant headache for China, whose propaganda outlets in the country produce little Turkish language content that actually resonates with domestic audiences. Turkey also has few explicitly pro-China voices and no sizable overseas Chinese community, which has made positive public relations into an uphill battle for Beijing. But having acknowledged these weaknesses in recent years, the Chinese regime has opted for strategies that aim at building a new synergy with local actors in the Turkish mediasphere. Beijing has adapted to the local rules of Turkish media and sought new opportunities to elevate China’s image in Turkey by leveraging its friendly ties with Ankara. The Turkish government, which exerts substantial influence over domestic media, has provided new platforms for China to realize its soft power goals within a largely polarized setting with little press freedom. In this context, Turkey’s progovernment newspapers have published “advertorials” celebrating the achievements of the Chinese Communist Party. Similarly, journalists from Turkey’s state-owned Anadolu Agency have participated in Chinese-sponsored press tours to Xinjiang, where Beijing has sought to undercut the Turkish narrative around abuses against the Uyghurs. On the other end of Turkey’s polarized ideological spectrum, China has also appealed to left-wing opposition groups through its narratives, which emphasize the country’s anti-imperialist credentials. Such messaging strategies may already have produced some results in Turkey, as the most recent opinion polls reflect a gradual increase in the number of Turkish citizens who perceive China as a potential partner.
Topic:
Media, Domestic Politics, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
China, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

47. Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Alper Coşkun and Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Turkey is heading toward a set of twin elections that could have momentous consequences for the country’s future. In June 2023 at the latest, Turkish voters will be asked to choose a new president and a new parliamentary majority. For the past two decades, the Turkish political landscape has been dominated by the Justice and Development (AK) Party and its uniquely successful leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. After having ruled the country single-handedly since 2002, Erdoğan became the first executive president of Turkey in 2018, following a tightly contested constitutional change. He has come out victorious in every round of elections since the start of his political career. And yet, after two decades, his popularity is faltering, raising the prospect of political change. The turning point for Turkey’s political system has been the transition to a presidential system with the constitutional amendment of 2017.1 Since the start of multiparty elections in 1946, Turkey had had a parliamentary system, and since 2002 it has had single-party governments. With Erdoğan at the helm, the AK Party has won nearly all elections over the past two decades. It only failed to win a parliamentary majority in the most recent elections,2 in June 2018, and since then has been forced to rely on the support of the hyper-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) to secure control of the legislature.3 Alper Coşkun Alper Coşkun is a senior fellow in the Europe Program and leads the Türkiye and the World Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. @IACOSKUN The transition to the presidential system forced a realignment of the political constellation. The structural impact of this transition has led to the creation of two major political alliances. The Cumhur, or People’s, Alliance is led by the AK Party and includes the MHP and a small number of marginal parties. The Millet, or Nation, Alliance is led by the main opposition, the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP); it also includes the center-right/nationalist İYİ Party as well as the Saadet and Demokrat parties, which appeal to a smaller electoral base. The first real test of this alliance-based politics was the municipal elections of March 2019, where the opposition alliance performed markedly better. Millet-backed opposition candidates won the electoral race in nine out of Turkey’s ten major metropolitan cities, including Ankara and Istanbul. These cities had been ruled by mayors linked to the AK Party and its predecessors since 1994. Now the alliances are gearing up to contest the critical 2023 elections. The ruling Cumhur Alliance’s candidate will be Erdoğan, who will try to win a third term as Turkey’s president. The candidate of the Millet Alliance is still unknown. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, as the leader of the main opposition party, is intent on becoming the Millet candidate, but there are doubts about his electability against Erdoğan. Meral Akşener, the chairwoman of İYİ—the second-largest opposition party—has so far sidelined herself from the presidential race. Ekrem Imamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul, and Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, are also possible presidential candidates for the opposition. At present, all four potential candidates for the opposition are polling better than Erdoğan—fueling speculation about political change.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, Elections, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

48. The EU Green Deal. A new momentum for democratic governance in the MENA region?

Author:
Dina Fakoussa
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
Dysfunctional governance and repression lie at the heart of social, economic and political challenges and crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The nature of governance, whether autocratic, corrupt, crony capitalist, highly centralised, patriarchal and/or merely incompetent, led to alarming socioeconomic and political grievances. These grievances accumulated over decades sparking region- wide protests in 2010, 2011 and subsequent years. Without major improvements in the quality of democratic governance,1 further crises are inevitable, and sustainable stability will remain unattainable, with major negative repercussions for the European Union (EU) itself. Naturally, climate change is augmenting these challenges and increasing the pressure on government performance. The EU Green Deal addresses this uniquely urgent matter in need of assertiveness, namely climate change with its worldwide palpable repercussions and impact for all. The deal has serious implications for economies and hence societies in MENA countries. At the same time, it could and must serve as a vehicle for improved democratic governance in the region. This is also in the interests of the EU’s green ambitions, as lasting environmentally sound and socially just policies in countries beyond the EU will hardly materialise without improvements in the area of democratic governance. The two subject areas are mutually dependent; hence, the durable success of climate policies is unlikely without being buttressed by democratic components. This understanding needs to be mirrored in all EU policies and programmes targeting the region by interweaving climate policies with democratic governance.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, European Union, Democracy, Repression, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

49. Youth unemployment in the South of the Mediterranean: A chronic challenge to development and stability

Author:
Hussein Suleiman
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
Unemployment among youth, aged 15 to 24 years old according to the International Labour Organization (ILO)’s definition, is the highest in the south of the Mediterranean, and in the larger Middle East and North Africa (MENA), compared to other regions in the world. This problem is exacerbated by very low labour force participation rates for this age group in the region, also compared to other regions. Furthermore, this issue of high youth unemployment is not a recent development but has been chronic in the region for at least the last three decades, as shown in detail further on. Youth unemployment south of the Mediterranean is a major challenge, and a symptom of deeply-rooted problems in the region’s labour markets. Unemployment is largely a youth unemployment issue. The problem is mainly one of new entrants’ transition from school age to work (Assaad & Krafft, 2016) but with consequences that could easily shape the entire life trajectories of individuals in the region and also have widespread impacts on their societies and even neighbouring countries. Such worrying and chronic challenges in the region’s labour markets have been largely shaped by structural deeply-rooted issues, reflected in the rise of work informality as a result of falling public employment, and a slow growth of formal private employment in the region throughout the last few decades, which will be discussed in detail in the paper. This paper aims to provide policy recommendations to address such chronic problems in the region, focusing mainly on Southern Mediterranean countries in North Africa, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco, excluding Libya because of the exceptional impact of the civil war on its labour market during the last decade. The paper first explores some prominent implications of low employment among the youth, for their own lives and their societies. It then proceeds to examine the magnitude of the problem in the selected countries and its development across the last three decades, relying mostly on ILO estimates, which, unlike national estimates, have a few missing entries in that extended period, and also allow for disaggregation by age groups and gender that might not always be available for national estimates. Next, the paper highlights the now-established explanation of the youth employment problem in the region and how it developed, before finally moving to the recommended policy measures, both domestic and through regional cooperation, to address this chronic problem that has played a major role in the radical political and social shocks in the region in the last decade.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Youth, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

50. Adapting to New Realities: Israel’s foreign policy in post-Netanyahu times

Author:
Gabriel Haritos
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Israel had to adapt to the revised objectives of the Biden administration in the Middle East and to update its coordination with Russia on the Syria front. The war in Ukraine has reconfigured Israel’s relations with the US and Russia. Israel’s reluctance to provide arms to Ukraine has allowed Russian-Israeli coordination to continue in Syria. The energy crisis triggered by the Russo-Ukrainian war led the US to revise its stance towards Saudi Arabia. The US-Iran talks ground to a halt in Vienna in the light of the growing ties between Iran and Russia. Israel took advantage of the new state of affairs, encouraging the rapprochement between Washington and Riyadh and countering the possibility of the US reopening its consulate in East Jerusalem. In coordination with the US, Israel has promoted the deepening of the Abraham Accords and drawn India into the new Middle East reality through the new I2U2 mechanism. Thanks to carefully managed communication, the Bennett-Lapid government was able to restore diplomatic relations with Turkey while maintaining close cooperation with Greece and Cyprus. It would seem advisable to put in place additional safeguards to maintain the quality of Athens-Nicosia -Jerusalem relations, similar to those which are expected to accompany the revamped relations between Israel and Turkey.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and United States of America

51. What is new about the reset between Israel and Turkey?

Author:
Selin Nasi
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Entering 2021, revising its foreign policy became an ever more pressing necessity for Ankara, in the light of both international and domestic developments. The Turkish government only took steps towards mending its broken ties with countries in the region, including Israel, when the economic cost of its assertive policies began to threaten Erdoğan’s rule. Israeli PM Netanyahu’s defeat in the 2021 elections provided an opportunity for Ankara to step up its diplomatic overtures toward Israel. Bilateral relations may follow a different course than they did in the 2000s, primarily because the basic parameters of the relationship between Israel and Turkey have changed since Israel made new friends in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. The erosion of institutions and the subsequent personalization of Turkish foreign policy render bilateral relations prone to crisis. For Israelis, this is a manageable risk, at least for now, given the benefits Ankara can expect from normalizing relations with Israel. Against the backdrop of an intensifying power competition between the US and China, Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and the current security landscape in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean, opportunities for cooperation between Israel and Turkey remain dependent on the resolution of long-standing issues.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

52. A Contested Conquest: The Many Meanings of 1453 in Turkish Political Rhetoric

Author:
Nicholas Danforth
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Turkish politicians have invoked Ottoman history to justify everything from interfaith tolerance to aggressive irredentism. In the early years of the Cold War, shortly after Turkey and Greece joined NATO, Ankara sought to downplay anti-Greek elements in its 1453 conquest celebrations. Now, by recasting the reconversion of Hagia Sophia and Turkey’s Exclusive Economic Zone claims as matters of national sovereignty, Erdoğan has succeeded in winning support from his political opponents.
Topic:
Cold War, History, Domestic Politics, and Ottoman Empire
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

53. Turkey in Afghanistan: more than one reason to stay

Author:
Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Despite a long history of bilateral contacts, Turkey’s most intensive commitment in Afghanistan only started in 2001 with the NATO mission. A first friendship treaty was signed back in 1921; the first official foreign visit to the Republic of Turkey was made in 1928 by King Amanullah of Afghanistan. Turkey’s engagement in South Asia started with Afghanistan but has recently been Pakistan-centred. As the only majority-Muslim NATO country, Turkey was viewed more positively by the Afghan population and the Taliban than other NATO member states. Ankara has been reaching out to the Taliban since summer 2021. However, the Taliban have not met Turkish demands for a more inclusive government, or in relation to girls’ education. Turkey has become a haven for non-Taliban (opposition) Afghans, who are told not to voice their criticism of the Taliban. There are four main motivations for Turkey’s engagement in Afghanistan: 1) improving relations with the US; 2) stabilizing Afghanistan to prevent migrant flows; 3) getting a foothold in the geopolitics of the region; 4) benefitting from the economic potential. Kabul international airport is important both for the Taliban and for Turkey. For the Taliban, it is their window to the world; for Turkey, it is an opportunity to profit economically and to boost its international status. In Afghanistan, Turkey’s soft power approach includes TIKA (Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency), the Maarif schools, and the Yunus Emre Institute. These institutions have remained operational. In 2020, Afghanistan received the third largest amount of Turkish developmental aid, amounting to 36.5 million USD. Even if the world, and Turkey, are currently focused on Ukraine, Afghanistan will continue to occupy an important place in Turkey’s regional foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Taliban, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Turkey, and Middle East

54. Greece and Turkey in the world today: the public’s view

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, Panagiota Manoli, and Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The Policy Paper by Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, Senior Research Fellow, Head of ELIAMEP Turkey Programme; Associate Professor, University of Bilkent; Panagiota Manoli, Research Fellow, ELIAMEP; Assistant Professor of Political Economy of International Relations, University of Peloponnese and Evangelos Areteos, Research Associate at ELIAMEP Turkey Programme, highlights the main findings of the third joint poll in Greece and Turkey, which took place in the first ten days of May 2022. Among other things, it aims to capture and compare the perceptions of Greek and Turkish public opinion regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the role of the United States and NATO in European security, and Greek and Turkish identity.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

55. Turkey’s quest for Strategic Autonomy

Author:
Alexandros Diakopoulos
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Ankara is pursuing a radical revision of the regional status quo by projecting power in neighboring regions with increasing aggression and disregard for international legality. Turkey moved from a security-based to a power-based foreign policy and took advantage of the power vacuum in Eastern Mediterranean to make a bid for regional hegemony by resorting to the use of hard power. The Turkish army developed autonomous expeditionary capabilities, bolstered by a strengthened national defense industry. The lessons learned in Syria clearly informed the series of Turkish foreign policy moves that followed. A revisionist Turkey involved itself in all regional theaters of conflict, fomenting instability in the region while also reaping strategic and economic benefits. These interventions shaped Turkish-Russian competitive cooperation and strategic realignment. Since 2016 the relationship has evolved into something almost symbiotic, with the two countries coordinating their presence on multiple fronts. The two countries are drawn to one another by their shared authoritarian models of governance and similar strategic cultures and operational codes: Both countries are revisionist, aggressive and assertive on their peripheries. Both countries claim to be surrounded, which serves as a pretext for their unilateral actions. Both countries have militarized their foreign policy by conducting hybrid warfare, using surrogate forces and coercing countries that resist.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Strategic Autonomy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, and Middle East

56. A New History for a New Turkey: What a 12th-grade textbook has to say about Turkey’s future

Author:
Nicholas Danforth
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Contemporary Turkish and World History synthesizes Turkey’s rival political traditions into a coherent anti-imperialist narrative. It presents the military, economic and cultural struggle for a fully independent Turkey as the driving force in the country’s 20th century history. In this account, both Turkey’s much-touted drone program and ambivalence toward NATO appear as the natural culmination of long-running trends.
Topic:
NATO, Education, History, Drones, and Textbook
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

57. The Akkuyu NPP and Russian-Turkish Nuclear Cooperation: Asymmetries and risks

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Eliza Gheorghe
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
By ratifying the 2016 Paris Agreement, Turkey has vowed to reduce the use of fossil fuels and promote clean and renewable energy production. The Turkish government has embraced nuclear energy as a solution to cutting carbon dioxide emissions. Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, Akkuyu NPP, is being built by Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom, under a Build-Own-Operate contract, the first of its kind in the world. The Akkuyu NPP will reinforce Turkey’s dependence on Russia for the next six decades. The Akkuyu NPP presents considerable environmental risks for the whole Eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Nuclear Energy, and Asymmetric Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, and Middle East

58. Regional power competition in the Eastern Mediterranean: the return of naval power and the changes technology brings

Author:
Vassilis Nedos
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Energy games and the territorialization of maritime zones are the main reasons for the renewed arms race and regional competition in the East Mediterranean. The East Mediterranean is home to quite diverse fleets in terms of capabilities and technology. In terms of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) field capabilities, Israel is the local champion while Turkey is an emerging power; the remaining regional actors lag behind. Top-tier technology items manufactured mostly by the US aeronautical industry are either too expensive or are restricted to local actors; as a result, Israel and subsequently Turkey have developed indigenous capabilities over the last few years, which are highly exportable. Even though the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war now raging in the country has to some extent overshadowed the rising tensions in the East Mediterranean (which culminated in the standoff between the Greek and Turkish fleets between August and November 2020), there are still issues that need to be resolved which stem directly from the military build-up and the power balance, which has been seriously disturbed. Greece is already invested in catching up in terms both of numbers and technological capabilities. Nonetheless, to date, these efforts have failed to close the gap for two main reasons: Firstly, the agreements signed so far include little or no transfer of technology and know-how; Secondly, the local capabilities in both ship building and the aeronautical industry suffer from the perennial Greek state maladies. Investing in local AI technologies and solving the “Gordian knot” of the shipyards are prerequisites for developing local infrastructure capable of competing regionally in the long run.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Navy, Strategic Competition, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and Mediterranean

59. Achieving qualitative superiority: Greek conscription and the Turkish threat

Author:
Antonis Kamaras and Nikos Stournaras
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy paper argues that, by emulating its peer countries, wealthy, small to medium sized democracies facing national security threats, in Northern Europe and the Middle East (namely Finland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Israel), Greece can modernize its conscript component and thus attain qualitative superiority over the Turkish Army. Turkey’s conscript model is riven by deep-seated class, geographical and ethnic cleavages, giving to Greek political and military leaders the opportunity to gain a qualitative military edge through judicious modernization of the Greek conscript model. Such a modernization is eminently feasible today as Greece’s economic crisis has created the political space to overcome resistance to the reform of conscription. By contrast, Greece’s main national security threat, Turkey, belongs to that group of authoritarian or illiberal countries which have suboptimal conscription models, featuring evasion of conscript service by the well-educated, inefficient training and harsh, counterproductive treatment of those conscripts who do serve. Greece, also due to its post WWII illiberalism or authoritarianism, and not unlike Taiwan which has a similar legacy, has not infused its conscript component with demanding training and operational standards, roles and missions. The time is ripe, due to the resurgence of the Turkish threat and Greece’s economic crisis, which has removed many of the country’s outdated shibboleths, to modernise Greek conscription, as its peer countries have done, and thus acquire an Army qualitatively superior to that of Turkey. By doing so, Greek policy-makers will decisively strengthen Greece’s deterrence and produce positive externalities for the consripts themselves . Indeed, the more effective conscription becomes in operational terms for the Greek Armed Forces, the greater the benefits to be reaped in civilian life.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Armed Forces, Deterrence, and Conscription
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

60. Turkey’s “anti-colonial” pivot to Mali: French-Turkish competition and the role of the European Union in the Sahel

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Dawid A. Fusiek
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Turkey’s rising foreign policy ambitions have been best reflected in its pivot to Africa. One of the tropes used by the Erdoğan administration to advance its cause are references to the colonial heritage of the European Union (EU) and its member states. The AKP and its officials have employed this discourse to challenge the French influence in Mali since the 2020 coup d’état. As this paper shows, Turkey uses anti-colonial discourse to exploit postcolonial sentiments with a view to challenging the political and economic power of Western actors, to portraying Turkey as a legitimate and “anti-colonial” ally and partner and, in the long run, to establishing a robust Turkish presence in Mali, the Sahel and beyond. In order to counter Turkish influence, the EU needs to promote fair cooperation with Mali and West Africa, to assist with political and economic development in the region, and to mobilise Member States which are unencumbered with a colonial past.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Anti-Colonialism, and Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, France, Mali, and Sahel

61. Regime Change No More: Coming to Terms with the Greater Middle East

Author:
Henrik Larsen
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
Reflecting on the ‘farcical retreat from Afghanistan’ back in August 2021, Henrik Larsen discusses the need for a reckoning within US foreign policy and that of its NATO Allies. To focus on the other challenges to transatlantic security with a sense of integrity, these states must come to grips with their failed regime change agenda over the past 20 years. Afghanistan was the first of their interventions in the Greater Middle East since 2001, alongside Iraq, Libya, and Syria, that obscured the pursuit of realistic objectives and prioritised (liberal) ideals that proved to be detached from the local realities. In the wake of NATO’s new Strategic Concept for 2030 and beyond, this Strategic Update seeks to analyse the options for policy in the Middle East going forward.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, and United States of America

62. Finding a New Idiom: Language, Moral Decay, and the Ongoing Nakba

Author:
Elias Khoury
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:
This essay is a translated and edited version of the Anis Makdisi Program in Literature lecture delivered by the author in May 2021. The talk, on the uprising sweeping every Palestinian geography from the river to the sea, was constructed as a series of illustrative stories. Their distillation, as Khoury points out, is that there will be no end to the Palestinian question so long as there exists a people continually prepared to resist the ongoing Nakba. “It is enough,” Khoury concludes, “that with this uprising Palestine has recovered the alphabet, leaving us to create a new idiom.”
Topic:
Culture, Language, Nakba, Resistance, and Storytelling
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

63. An Invitation to Belong: Challenging the Systemic Exclusion of Palestinians as Present Absentees

Author:
Sarah Anne Minkin
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:
This essay takes as its starting place the “present absentee” status of Palestinians in U.S. and Jewish discourse and engagement with Israel/ Palestine. Ethnographic fieldwork in Jewish American communities demonstrates practices that reiterate a dynamic of Jewish belonging against the presence of Palestinian absence. The essay explores different initiatives to challenge this systemic exclusion of Palestinians, including public programs that amplify Palestinian voices and normalize hearing Palestinians as experts in their own lives and an experimental study group with Jewish American leaders that centers Palestinian perspectives in an effort to cultivate radical empathy. Insights gained in these initiatives point to the importance of articulating fuller visions of community and belonging in engagement with Israel/Palestine.
Topic:
Ethnography, Anti-Semitism, Identity, Belonging, Jewish community, Present Absentee, Empathy, and Political Education
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

64. Saudi Arabia’s Engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:
Ksenia Svetlova
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
During the last few decades Saudi Arabia had exercised a role of a regional coordinator between various Middle Eastern states and between them and the USA. Twice in the past it had put on the table a peace initiative that was aimed at finding an acceptable solution for Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and both times these initiatives didn’t take off for various reasons. The reality of the Arab spring and Iran domination, as well as the rise of the crown-prince Muhammad Bin-Salman and Abraham accords had radically altered the regional dynamic, and during the last few years Saudi Arabia moved closer to Israel, especially since it became more preoccupied with Iranian threat and domestic reforms. How can Saudi Arabia facilitate peace or contribute for peace-making between Israel and Palestinians, openly or behind the scenes, and what needs to happen first to allow this scenario?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia

65. Palestinian Expectations from The Biden Administration

Author:
Rawan AbuJulia
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The United States’ (US) foreign policy trend of intervention in the Middle East has long been accepted as a truism in international relations and politics. For decades, the US has demonstrated a steadfast commitment to peace in the Middle East and has made commendable efforts to mediate the Israel-Palestine conflict. While Washington-Palestinian relations experienced tension during Trump presidency, the victory of Biden left the Palestinians upbeat. Today, one year into Biden’s tenure, the Palestinians continue to hold mixed expectations of the Biden administration’s ability to advance the peace process. This paper attempts, in particular, to analyze the Palestinians’ expectations of the of the Biden Administration, as articulated by high officials and leaders of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO): a legitimate authority representing the Palestinian people recognized by Israel in 1993.[1] An approach that aims to understand Palestinian expectations can yield major benefits: it can contribute to making progress toward better conflict resolution, help advance the peace process, and likely revive the two-state solution. In fact, ignoring Palestinian expectations might lead to misunderstanding, miscommunication and could perhaps interrupt or even thwart the peace process entirely. To identify these expectations, this paper relies on Palestinian and international news sources, along with open governmental data published by the US government and the Palestinian Authority. This paper is divided into four sections. The first section presents the efforts that different US administrations made to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The second section summarizes President Trump’s policy towards the Palestinians, highlighting actions that provoked strong condemnation by the Palestinians. The third section presents President Biden’s policy toward the Palestinians in the first year of his administration, emphasizing the main differences between Biden and Trump’s decisions. The fourth and final part presents the overarching Palestinian expectations from the Biden administration.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Media, News Analysis, Peace, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

66. ‘Peace through Health’ in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Ground for dialogue or guise for continued occupation?

Author:
Yotam Rosner
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
“Peace through Health” is a theoretical and applied approach that sees humanitarian health initiatives as a primary basis for dialogue and cooperation between adversaries. This approach posits that health initiatives can spawn increased discourse and dialogue between parties to a conflict, build trust and promote cooperation on various issues, eventually facilitating the transition from conflict to peace. Based on interviews with representatives of an Israeli human rights organization that provides health services in the Occupied Territories, this article examines the implementation of the “peace through health” approach in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Under the Oslo Accords, Israel handed responsibility for the health of the Palestinian population to the Palestinian Authority (PA).However, continued Israeli control and absence of full Palestinian sovereignty have resulted in a weakened and poor Palestinian health system. The severe shortage of health resources has created growing Palestinian dependence on local and international humanitarian health organizations, including health professionals from the Israeli side. An analysis of the interviews conducted for this article indicates that the humanitarian assistance by Israeli health professionals provides an opportunity to develop dialogue, achieve logistical cooperation, and establish trust between the peoples.At the same time, the article discusses the possible disadvantages of this approach in the Israeli-Palestinian test case as an example of humanitarian work that fosters normalization and preserves the status quo of occupation.
Topic:
Health, Occupation, Conflict, Peace, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

67. Energy as a Tool for Israeli-Palestinian Peacebuilding

Author:
Bar Rapaport
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
This article focuses on energy as a tool for promoting peace between Israel and the Palestinians. It describes how the energy relations between Israel and the Palestinians reflect the existing relationship between the parties, and the potential they hold for promoting cooperation and peace. The energy sector and the energy relations between Israel and the Palestinians largely determine the level of energy services and electricity infrastructure in the West Bank. At present, this dependency does not benefit either party. The article points to a number of current initiatives aimed at strengthening Palestinian energy independence as well as energy security. At the same time, it highlights the inherent tensions in the management of the energy sector in the Israeli-Palestinian case, for example between energy independence and energy poverty in the West Bank and between responses to the climate crisis and the need for energy security. Finally, the article argues that the energy sector must be examined as an integral part of the political-diplomatic relationship between Israel and the Palestinians and that it must address the various tensions and promote energetic cooperation in the interest of peace.
Topic:
Climate Change, Infrastructure, Peacebuilding, and Energy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank

68. Environmental Organizations as Potential Players in the Peace Process

Author:
Nir Arielli
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Environmental issues cross geographic and man-made political boundaries. Shared environmental problems and situations of interdependence may exacerbate conflicts between communities, but they can also offer opportunities for cooperation. This article discusses the capacity of non-governmental organizations to use environmental issues as a platform for promoting peace in the region, especially between Israelis and Palestinians. It focuses on three organizations that see Israeli-Palestinian cooperation as a central pillar of their activities: EcoPeace Middle East, the Arava Institute for Environmental Studies, and Comet Middle East. The article examines the variety of activities these organizations engage in: promoting and encouraging cooperation between political entities, education, facilitating meetings between individuals and groups on both sides, addressing energy and water-related problems (mainly sewage treatment and river pollution), and more. The notable achievements of the three organizations are also highlighted, as well as the considerable difficulties they face. This review of their activities suggests some conclusions and recommendations for organizations and for individuals interested in environmental protection and the future of relations between Israelis and Palestinians. This paper is the second in a series of a joint project between the Mitvim Institute and the Davis Institute for International Relations.
Topic:
Environment, Water, Peace, Pollution, and Civil Society Organizations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

69. One step forward, one step back: International discourse on advancing Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking

Author:
Lior Lehrs
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The Israeli-Palestinian peace process has been locked in a stalemate since the 2014 collapse of the US mediation initiative led by then-Secretary of State John Kerry. The relations between the parties have been all but severed and characterized by a series of crises and tensions that peaked over Israel’s 2020 West Bank annexation plan. While the Israeli-Arab normalization agreements removed the annexation idea from the agenda, this did not change the Israeli-Palestinian situation. Developments in recent months in the Israeli-Palestinian arena pose challenges and risks but also new opportunities and possibilities. Special attention should be paid to the impact of the May 2021 escalation, the deep crisis in the Palestinian Authority (PA), and the establishment of a new government in Israel. This paper maps the international discourse on advancing Israeli-Palestinian peace under the current conditions, and constitutes a follow-up to the paper we published in April 2021. It is based on a series of dialogues held by Mitvim Institute experts in August and September 2021 with European, American and Palestinian diplomats and experts, as well as UN officials, and also on a series of discussions among a team of Israeli experts formed by Mitvim.[1] The paper offers an analysis of the positions and perceptions of international actors regarding the effects of the latest developments on the Israeli-Palestinian arena, and their insights and conclusions about the feasible and desired measures that could be undertaken to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Negotiation, Peace, Annexation, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

70. Policy Paper: Considerations of condemnation and balance of Palestine’s position on the war in Ukraine

Author:
Palthink
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In classic wars, we waited for the military result, and then we formed a political response. In new wars, there is not a final resolution; there is only the stronger party imposing its conditions. Additionally, there is also geographical control, regime projection, or behavior modification goals. Russia is seeking to maintain its national security and enhance its regional and international position. It has a deep fear that NATO will expand, bringing weapons to its border with Ukraine. Now that the first shock of the war has receded, the world realizes that the war will not exceed Ukraine’s borders. Russia has given indications that it will limit itself to the minimum that preserves its national security by preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. Global concern about the consequences of war is high. People are wondering if it will continue or stop. Additionally, sanctions have been announced. In this context, developing and poor countries are affected by conflict because they depend on foreign aid. Their positions on the war will determine where they are positioned, and how the political, economic and security consequences will affect them. Trying to show a neutral position would not endear them to the great powers. On the face of it, it may seem to be a war fought on Ukrainian lands only, but it is a world war of influence. The survival of developing nations depends on the strength of the international community and the extent to which it supports these nations in the light of political realism, not because of their strength and resources. Many places cannot survive without traditional international support.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Palestine

71. Position Paper: Municipal elections in the Westbank: a first step towards inclusive democracy.

Author:
Palthink
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
PalThink for Strategic Studies followed the second phase of the electoral process in its second phase with great interest. It was conducted in eleven governorates in the West Bank, including occupied Jerusalem, and was held in fifty local municipalities. Two-hundred thirty-four lists competed in the elections. According to the Chairman of the Central Election Commission, Hanna Nasser, who spoke at the morning press conference in Al-Bireh city on March 26, 2022, independent parties comprised 64.4% of the candidates, while there were 35.6% party lists. The overall turnout was 53% of those eligible to vote despite the challenges of holding regular and permanent elections in all Palestinian areas, sectors, and institutions.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Local, Voting, and Participation
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

72. New Policy Papaer : The Consequences of No General Elections in Palestine

Author:
Palthink
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
This paper tracks the disastrous repercussions of the political and legal absence of Palestinian elections, the distortion of the work of the three authorities as a result of the suspension of some provisions of the Basic Law and the dissolution of the Legislative Council. In addition, the absence of elections in the Palestinian economy is due to the duplication of public politics in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and their direct effects on the general budget considering the lack of planning and oversight, which has affected the level of transparency and accountability. All this has directly affected Palestinian society in all its aspects and has increased tensions such as demonstrations and strikes, which have increased the situation of impunity and crimes without accountability among segments of society. At the international level, the absence of elections and the negative renewal of legitimacy have affected the political project and the international community’s advocacy of the Palestinian cause, considering the rapid global changes and transformations. In the end, the policy paper outlined four main trends in promoting the chances of elections in Palestine.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Participation
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

73. What Will It Take for Jordan to Grow?

Author:
Tim O'Brien, Thảo-Nguyên Bùi, Ermal Frasheri, Fernando Garcia, Eric Protzer, Ricardo Villasmil, and Ricardo Hausmann
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This report aims to answer the critical but difficult question: "What will it take for Jordan to grow?" Though Jordan has numerous active growth and reform strategies in place, they do not clearly answer this fundamental question. The Jordanian economy has experienced more than a decade of slow growth. Per capita income today is lower than it was prior to the Global Financial Crisis as Jordan has experienced a refugee-driven population increase. Jordan’s comparative advantages have narrowed over time as external shocks and responses to these shocks have changed the productive structure of Jordan’s economy. This was a problem well before the country faced the COVID-19 pandemic. The Jordanian economy has lost productivity, market access, and, critically, the ability to afford high levels of imports as a share of GDP. Significant efforts toward fiscal consolidation have further constrained aggregate demand, which has slowed non-tradable activity and the ability of the economy to create jobs. Labor market outcomes have worsened over time and are especially bad for women and youth. Looking ahead, this report identifies clear and significant opportunities for Jordan to strengthen new engines of export growth that would enable better overall job creation and resilience, even amidst the continued unpredictability of the pandemic. This report argues that there is need for a paradigm shift in Jordan’s growth strategy to focus more direct attention and resources on activating “agents of change” to accelerate the emergence of key growth opportunities, and that there are novel roles that donor countries can play in support of this.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, Economic Growth, Trade, COVID-19, Labor Market, Inclusion, and Green Jobs
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

74. National ambition, divergent vision: Consensus and fracture among Iraqi youth activists of the Tishreen Movement

Author:
Sarah Anne Rennick and Adel Bakawan
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Since October 2019, Iraq has been witnessing a mass protest movement, heavily though not exclusively centered in Baghdad and the country’s southern provinces and largely led by youth. This new uprising, referred to as the October Revolution or Tishreen protests, while initially fueled by socioeconomic grievances and the lack of basic services, quickly transformed into a broader political movement calling for radical change to the political order. Rallying around the slogan “we want a homeland,” a hallmark of this new movement has been the effort on the part of activists to put forth a new collective Iraqi identity, moving past sectarian divides and envisioning new state-society relations and a break with the transactional social contract currently in place. Yet despite this overarching vision of national renewal through both radical political reform and reconceived bases of collective belonging, the extent to which the movement actually represents a unified vision for the Iraqi nation and a strategic means by which to renew the State is far from obvious. The radically different political trajectories that the country’s different regions have been on since 2011, and in particular since 2014, have led to important fractures in terms of security, ideology, and power structures at the sub-regional level. As a result, the relationship with and attitudes towards different ideas, forms of collective action, and political and security players vary considerably from region to region. Likewise, the difficulty with which activists can freely meet and move around has meant that exchange and the consolidation of their movement around a unified set of claims has not fully occurred. Indeed, in speaking with youth leaders of the Tishreen movement from various cities across the country,1 what becomes obvious is that while the large lines of national renewal are agreed upon – the need for a new Iraqi identity and new basis for Iraqi nationalism, radical transformation in the practice of power – important points of fracture in their own vision as well as methods for achieving change can be identified. Nonetheless, a shared oppositional consciousness and dedication to the movement itself, as well as underlying and perhaps generationally significant importance assigned to secularism, act as resources for continued mobilization despite repression and strategic impasse.
Topic:
Youth, Youth Movement, Consensus, and Activim
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

75. Qualitative Synthesis Maps for Data-Driven Urban Governance A Methodological Evaluation

Author:
Murat Güvenç
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Prof. Dr. Murat Güvenç explains the methodology of maps produced within the scope of projects carried out by TESEV since 2016, including The Empowering Civil Society and Municipalities for Data-Driven Participatory Gender Equality Policies.
Topic:
Governance, Sustainability, Digital Policy, Mapping, and Methodology
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

76. The Implications of the Ukraine War for Israel

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
For Israel, this is evidence that its self-reliance doctrine must be nourished with no illusions about foreign support in times of crisis. Moreover, Turkey probably sees NATO more positively since it borders Russia, pushing Ankara toward the West.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel

77. Vienna: A return to Ben-Gurion’s WW2 Dual Strategy?

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
It is time to revive the spirit of Ben-Gurion’s famous dictum from the days of WWII regarding the stance toward the British: “We will fight the war as if there were no White Paper, and we will fight the White Paper as if there were no war.” This makes sense concerning Israel’s dilemma towards the US in the context of the renewal of the JCPOA.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

78. Ukraine could have Repercussions for Syrian Regime, Israel

Author:
Marta Furlan
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The movement of Syrian fighters to Ukraine will significantly impact Syria’s internal dynamics, and Israel needs to monitor the situation closely.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

79. The Roots of Israel’s Diplomatic Revolution

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The latest diplomatic moves demonstrate that despite recent events in Jerusalem, Israel has thwarted the Palestinian plan to force it into diplomatic isolation.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

80. Israel Must Adjust its Ukraine Policy

Author:
Daniel Rakov
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The difficulties of the Russian military on the battlefield increase the possibility that in the coming weeks, Moscow will expand the fighting as part of preparations for a long-term military campaign.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

81. Biden, Israel, and China: Making a Difficult Threesome Work

Author:
Steven R. David
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
It is wrong to expect Israel, a middle-level economy, to decouple from China when far wealthier countries (including the United States) show no signs of following suit. Israeli companies should not be subject to restrictions not placed on companies elsewhere, including the United States itself.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

82. The Meeting Between Assad and Khameini: What was on the Table?

Author:
Marta Furlan
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad might have decided to cement his friendship with Tehran, fearing that Moscow’s capacity to invest in Syria’s reconstruction would be negatively affected. Assad may also try to play Iran against its Gulf rivals to draw resources from both.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Syria

83. What is Different in this Wave of Violence and What Should be Done About It?

Author:
Hillel Frisch
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
A static “dumb” security fence can hardly be effective against young and resourceful workers, many of whom work in construction and are experts in dismantling barriers and desperately want to work within the green line.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

84. The Dangers of Exaggerating the Impact of the Death of an Al Jazeera Propagandist

Author:
Hillel Frisch
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
An analysis of Google Trends demonstrates the dangers of exaggerating events easily and effectively manipulated by Palestinian propaganda.
Topic:
Media, Conflict, State Violence, Propaganda, and Narrative
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

85. Asking for Too Much: Will Hezbollah Prevent a Reasonable Compromise in the Lebanon-Israel Maritime Dispute?

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The recurrent pattern of asking for more and more – reminiscent of the folk tale about the fisherman’s greedy wife – has made a mockery of the ongoing attempt to diplomatically resolve the Israeli-Lebanese EEZ dispute. The negotiations have continued for years, and some in Lebanon understand the need for a negotiated outcome: but Hezbollah might yet again scuttle the deal.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Maritime, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

86. Connecting Strategic Dots: Biden’s Visit to the Middle East

Author:
Eytan Gilboa
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
During Biden’s upcoming visit, he plans to form a regional defense alliance at a regional conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The coalition will include the United States, Israel, and a host of Arab countries, including Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq. In this sense, Biden continues Trump’s policy of the Abraham Accords.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Hegemony, Leadership, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, North America, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America

87. Increased and Targetted Force Reduced Violence in the Last Terror Wave

Author:
Hillel Frisch
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israeli forces, again, consistently entered these towns and their environs almost daily to make arrests, which led to a 90% decrease in terrorism.
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

88. A New Global Order? Israel’s Relations with China and Russia in Light of the War in Ukraine

Author:
Tuvia Gering and Daniel Rakov
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Despite their mutual support throughout the first hundred days of the war, Russia and China continue to have competing interests. Whereas Israel needs to be more responsive to Washington’s concerns about its two global competitors, it must also be mindful of populist calls to destabilize relations with Moscow and Beijing.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

89. Latest Killings in Iran May Indicate a Notable Shift in Israeli Strategy

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
A notable change of the rules of engagement has taken place, in which the totality of Iranian actions will now be opposed, also on Iranian soil. The strike on the UAV fleet at Kermanshah and the assassination of Colonel Khodai in Tehran were the first manifestations of this new approach.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

90. The US Defense Establishment’s Role in Shaping American Regional Strategy

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel offers the US military and, even more so, the intelligence community critical support. For example, the US Army has gained through the acquisition of the Iron Dome missile defense system, tank technology such as reactive armor, solutions to the challenge of terrorist improvised explosive devices, mine-clearing devices, and much more. In turn, the US defense establishment –specifically CENTCOM, now that Israel is in its area of responsibility – increasingly reflects Israeli perspectives in Washington policy debates. This has recently been the case on Iran.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

91. What is the agenda for the Eastern Mediterranean?

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
A more coherent common foreign policy agenda is needed to enhance the strategic significance of the Athens-Jerusalem-Nicosia partnership.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

92. The Sweet Victory Against Ben & Jerry’s Deters Others

Author:
Yifa Segal
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
With the defeat of Ben& Jerry’s attempted boycott, a new equation was created – boycotting Israel will lead to immense financial harm.
Topic:
Business, Protests, BDS, Fiscal Policy, and Boycott
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

93. Egypt as the Cornerstone of the New Regional Security Architecture

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The stability and orientation of the region’s most populous country, Egypt, remain crucial components of the newly emerging regional security architecture and its new strategic alignments.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Egypt, and MENA

95. A New Middle East

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Changing Israel’s relationship with Arab countries is vital for its regional legitimacy, but it is also in the best interests of the Arab world. Sunni Arab countries want relations with Israel to create a safer region and better tools to deal with the complex reality they face after the “Arab Spring,” in the face of Iranian aggression and American hesitancy.
Topic:
Democratization, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Religion, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

96. Understanding Israeli-Palestinian two-state solution delusion

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The idea that a Jewish and a Palestinian state will coexist peacefully is widespread in contemporary academic and political circles but ignores the reality on the ground.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Nation Building
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

97. Israel Caves to Bad Maritime Deal

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
We should not forget that moderate Arab states are watching Israeli behavior, especially in the Gulf. Without determined and effective action, Israel’s allies in the region, wary of American withdrawal and fearful of Iran, will be reluctant to rely on Israel and could later move closer to Tehran.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

98. Israel-Lebanon Maritime Deal Demonstrates Israeli Weakness

Author:
Omer Dostri
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
It is unclear whether endorsing a lousy agreement is preferable to a violent confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel should not be afraid of military conflict.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Maritime, Hezbollah, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

99. The Maritime Border Agreement with Lebanon

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The agreement with Lebanon over the maritime border has several implications and needs to be examined from different angles.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Maritime, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

100. The 2022 protests in Iran

Author:
Beni Sabti
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The latest protests in Iran have different characteristics from previous protests that symbolize a generational transition, reflecting an ideological gap between the old leadership of the revolution and the younger generation in Iran
Topic:
Social Movement, Protests, Ideology, Youth Movement, and Age
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East