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82. PA head Mahmoud Abbas reveals his anti-peace stance in attack against Israeli Arab politician
- Author:
- Hillel Frisch
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- It took Mansour Abbas, the head of the southern branch of the Islamic Movement’s United Arab List party(Ra’am), to show that Mahmoud Abbas has no ideological resolve or intentions to recognize the Jewish state and make genuine peace with it.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Governance, Leadership, and Ideology
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
83. WPA in Afghanistan: Betrayal and Renewal
- Author:
- Farkhondeh Akbari
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
- Abstract:
- The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan on 15 August 2021 unraveled significant achievements of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda in Afghanistan over the last two decades.1 Every western donor present in the country pushed the WPS agenda over the past two decades of their engagement in Afghanistan. The previous Government of Afghanistan adopted a National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security in 2015. They made concerted efforts to implement the NAP by promoting women’s participation in the peace process, the parliament, in government and the security sector, and to protect women and girls from gender-based violence and other violations of their human rights.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Governance, Taliban, Women, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
84. The Security Ghost of the January 25th Revolution in al-Sisi Regime’s Policy toward Gaza
- Author:
- Shaimaa Magued
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- This study argues that al-Sisi regime has been haunted by the January 25 uprisings as a potential recurrent threat to the state survival during the formulation of national and foreign politics. In the aim of boosting its international legitimacy before Western allies, especially the US, the regime has capitalized on political instabilities in Gaza as a means to ensure its security grip on power without incurring foreign allies’ critics for human rights violations. How did al-Sisi regime mobilize Gaza as a means for bolstering its international credibility before Western bailers and shunning off the January 25 security ghost? In answering this question, this study refers to haunted politics in foreign policy-making as an informative perspective about the impact of traumatic events on ruling regimes’ interpretation of incidents, convocation of memories, recreation of meanings, and subjugation of citizens. Unlike Mubarak’s limited support for the Palestinian cause and Morsi’s exclusive ties with Hamas, al-Sisi adopted a balanced approach toward Gaza in the aim of counterbalancing the US reservations over the regime’s human rights violations since 2013.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Revolution, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt
85. Proceed with Caution: Israeli Research Collaboration with China
- Author:
- Casey Babb
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- For Israel, warming relations with China has, in large part, been driven by pragmatic and enticing economic prospects, with policies focused on seizing the economic opportunity. For Xi and the Chinese Communist Party, the rationale for strengthening relations with Israel has been equally pragmatic, if of a different nature. China has long sought access to Israel’s vaunted innovation and technology sector – one of the most advanced in the world. For these reasons, China-Israel relations have accelerated dramatically, in areas ranging from trade in goods, to investment deals, to diplomatic relations, and beyond. However, over the last few years, and partly in response to mounting US pressure on Israel to reconsider its relations with China, there has been a noticeable cooling of economic activity between the two countries. That being said, if Israel wants to solidify its relationship with the US while limiting the gateways China could conceivably use to access or acquire the country’s technology and innovation in certain dual-use domains, it must also ensure the country’s research, intellectual property, and expert knowledge in these areas is sufficiently protected.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Innovation, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, and Asia
86. Islamic Republic or Islamic Monarchy? The Possible Transfer of Power in Iran to the Supreme Leader's Son
- Author:
- Raz Zimmt
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- In recent weeks, public debate in Iran has resumed regarding the possibility of transferring power after the death of the current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, to his son Mojtaba. In the background of this debate is criticism of the idea of cultivating Mojtaba as a possible successor, sounded by the leader of the reformist opposition, Mir-Hossein Mousavi; a report on the promotion of Mojtaba to a high religious status with the rank of ayatollah; and an expression of support for his possible appointment as leader from one of the Friday prayer leaders. The possibility of the transfer of power to Khamenei's son has already evoked severe public criticism on the ground that it contravenes the fundamental principles of the Islamic Revolution. At this point, it is too early to assess whether this scenario is indeed considered seriously. However, in the absence of a suitable consensus candidate to succeed Khamenei, it cannot be ruled out that the death of the current Supreme Leader may pave the way for a transition to an alternative governing model, including dynastic rule.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, Transition, and Theocracy
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
87. Chaos in the Palestinian Authority: From Counter-Terrorism to Reconstruction
- Author:
- Orit Perlov and Udi Dekel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Recent months have seen a steep rise in the use of live fire in the Palestinian cities in the West Bank against IDF forces, as well as in the number of shooting incidents and other attacks. Behind the shootings are primarily young Palestinians, including Fatah operatives, and this phenomenon reflects the chaos within the Palestinian Authority. The Israeli security response, which focuses on counter-terrorism and widespread arrests of suspects, generates a self-sustaining cycle of escalation and heightens the motivation among young Palestinians to enlist in the fight against the Israeli security forces. The danger is that as a result of the chaos, the PA will cease to function as a responsible, stable, and effective entity that encourages calm and is an authoritative address for communication with Israel. To curb this trend and give the PA an opportunity (perhaps its last) to regain control of the northern West Bank and stop the deterioration, reconstruction measures should be pursued vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority, and external collaboration and support should be recruited for the effort, primarily from Jordan and the Gulf states.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, and Palestinian Authority
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
88. Difficulties in the Negotiations with Iran: Implications for Israel
- Author:
- Eldad Shavit and Sima Shine
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The negotiations between the United States and Iran on renewing the nuclear agreement have run into serious difficulties following the opposition by the United States and the European partners to Iran's demand that the IAEA close the open files on the Iranian nuclear program before the implementation of the agreement (120 days after signing). At the same time, Iran continues to accelerate the program, including the enrichment of uranium using cascades of advanced centrifuges. Three scenarios are possible: a resolution of the crisis and achievement of an agreement; continued stagnation, i.e., lowintensity talks; or the collapse of the negotiations. The worst scenario for Israel is a continuation of the current situation, in which Iran could in a short time accumulate enough fissile material for weapons-grade enrichment for several nuclear facilities, while the temptation of a nuclear breakout increases. Thus, Israel should immediately formulate a new strategy regarding Iran. The government should conduct a discreet dialogue with the US administration and focus on proposals that seek to advance Israel’s military and strategic needs, including consolidating covert and effective cooperation with the countries of the region under the auspices of the United States.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Negotiation, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
89. The Bus Attack in the Jordan Valley: The Ethos of Resistance Increasingly Shapes the Palestinian Campaign
- Author:
- Kobi Michael
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Israel's current mode of operation against the escalation of attacks in the West Bank provides fertile ground for the intensification of the Palestinian ethos of resistance. From the perspective of the armed Palestinian operatives, the cost of the violent friction with IDF forces is not overly high. Symbols of national struggle are born each day and the sense of capability and expectations of the armed struggle are intensifying in the hearts and collective consciousness of the younger generation and provide motivation to join the struggle. But Israel's management of the conflict in the format of "mowing the grass” is reaching the limit of its effectiveness and could even lead to a largescale violent outbreak while it addresses isolated trees and not the forest, which is the real strategic challenge before it.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Violence, and Resistance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
90. War or Peace? Turkish Moves in Syria
- Author:
- Gallia Lindenstrauss and Carmit Valensi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Recent increased attacks on Kurdish targets in northern Syria by Turkey and the Syrian rebel groups its supports raise the question whether Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan intends to carry out his threat of May 2022 to begin another major ground operation against the Kurds. On the other hand, conciliatory statements regarding the Assad regime have been sounded recently in Turkey, and there has been discussion of the possibility of normalizing relations between the two countries after over a decade of hostility and competition. These two processes appear to be contradictory, given that the Syrian regime opposes existing Turkish control of Syrian territories, and does not wish to see this control broadened. On the other hand, this may be a calculated Turkish move that aims to show the Turkish public a concerted multi-faceted effort to confront both the Kurdish underground and the issue of Syrian refugees in Turkey. Discussion of events in northern Syria and the web of Syrian and Turkish interests can be used to assess the question, which trend will prevail in Turkish-Syrian relations: normalization or escalation?
- Topic:
- War, Military Strategy, Homeland Security, Peace, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria