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1. The Economy in its Labyrinth: A Structuralist View of the Mexican Economy in the 21st Century

Author:
Liz Monroy Gomez Franco
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
In this paper, I analyze the performance of the Mexican economy during the two decades of the 21st century. I focus on the aggregate and sectoral dynamics of the economy to understand the underlying dynamics behind the aggregate performance of the economy. With these results in mind, I analyze the changes and continuities in the conduction of macroeconomic and labor market policy with the arrival of a new administration in 2018. The goal of analyzing both elements is to provide an integrated view of the situation in which the Mexican economy will face three structural challenges: the medium and long-run effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the integration of artificial intelligence into the production process, and climate change.
Topic:
Climate Change, Political Economy, History, Macroeconomics, Artificial Intelligence, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

2. The Impact of Robots in Latin America: Evidence from Local Labor Markets

Author:
Irene Brambilla, Andrés César, Guillermo Falcone, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We study the effect of robots on labor markets in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, the major robot users in Latin America, during the period 2004{2016. We exploit spatial and time variations in exposure to robots arising from initial differences in industry specialization across geographic locations and the evolution of robot adoption across industries, to estimate a causal effect of robots on local labor market outcomes. We find that district’s exposure to robots causes a relative deterioration in labor market indicators such us unemployment and labor informality. We document that robots mainly replace formal salaried jobs, affecting young and semi-skilled workers to a greater extent, and that informal employment acts as a buffer that prevents a larger increase in unemployment.
Topic:
Unemployment, Robotics, Labor Market, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, and Mexico

3. Farmer Movement Oversight of Mexican Government Agricultural Programs

Author:
Jonathan Fox and Carlos García Jiménez
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
In Mexico’s state of Guerrero, a broad-based, collaborative social accountability campaign led by a network of agrarian community leaders contributed to improving a large-scale free fertilizer program, targeted at smallholders. In 2019, the newly-elected federal government took over a state government subsidy program that had been synonymous with clientelism and corruption, promising to clean it up and include access to organic fertilizer. When the program’s historic deficiencies persisted during its first year of transition to federal management, farmers responded with widespread, confrontational protest. To address this chaotic situation, veteran activists and community leaders from across the state transformed protest into proposals, launching a participatory, statewide monitoring and advocacy campaign with the Guerrero Network of Ejido and Communal Commissioners. The campaign advocated for the validation of program beneficiary rosters in community assemblies, based on federal agrarian law, also using the official public information request system. It helped to ensure the distribution of fertilizer to smallholder farmers, reduced diversion of fertilizer for corrupt or electoral purposes, and promoted more inclusion of women and indigenous smallholders. Despite these achievements, the Network’s proposals for transparency, peasant participation, accountability, and agroecological transition were rejected by the government officials responsible for the fertilizer program. In response, the campaign coordinators shifted their focus to other government agricultural programs and coordinated with agrarian leaders in other states to launch their own advocacy platforms. This organizing process led to the second Agrarian Convention of Guerrero, which included participation of agrarian leaders from a dozen other states, followed by regional meetings and state conventions in half of the country’s states. On April 10, 2023, five thousand agrarian leaders gathered in Mexico City for the First National Agrarista Convention. Reflections on this experience include: The focus of the farmer oversight campaign on immediately felt needs generated social energy and inspired a new organizing strategy. The state-wide mobilization to promote better fertilizer delivery was grounded in revitalized civic life in historic local participatory governance institutions that were created following the Mexican Revolution. Elected leaders of these ejidos and agrarian communities gave the campaign both scale and legitimacy. Though mainly driven by grassroots organizing, the farmer oversight campaign also used technical open government tools. The campaign combined the monitoring of agricultural programs and local problem-solving with social mobilization, scaling up advocacy for greater recognition of peasant movement oversight to the national level.
Topic:
Agriculture, Government, Social Movement, Farming, and Community Organizing
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

4. Mexico’s “Catch-22”: The Implications of Being a Trade and Climate Partner of the United States and the European Union

Author:
Simone Lucatello
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Under the current global environmental governance and trade regimes, several initiatives, such as the new United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, the European Union’s European Green Deal, and regional free trade agreements the European Union has implemented with strategic partners like Mexico, are prompting a vibrant discussion on how trade agreements can be used as a potential mechanism to create enforceable cross-border commitments to tackle climate change. However, to cut greenhouse gas emissions within a few decades, a decisive departure from current trends in emission and trade policies is required by all countries, both developed and developing. As a result, politicians, scholars and experts around the world have looked to trade agreements as a possible tool for reaching global climate commitments, either related to or independent from the Paris Agreement. But how well do these agreements suit this purpose? Carbon-intensive products worldwide increased when tariff reductions were implemented, resulting in destructive practices for many countries, particularly those in the Global South. For countries such as Mexico, the nexus between trade and climate change is not easy to address: the country is trapped between its ambitions to play a role in global trade platforms as an industrial manufacturer and agricultural exporter and its desire to be recognized as a global actor in climate change policy and actions within the global community. Despite recent changes in climate and environmental politics under the administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018–2024), Mexico is a middle-income country with a long-standing tradition as climate champion and environmental leader in the Global South and needs to make clear where it stands under the new global environmental and ecological transition scenario imposed by the climate crisis and trade-related issues. The “entanglement” of global trade treaties and commitments under the current climate crisis, represents a major shift for Mexico. Caught between the new US–Mexico-Canada Agreement, the EU–Mexico Trade Agreement and the possible impacts of the European Green Deal, Mexico needs to define its role in trade and environmental terms alongside giant partners such as the United States and the European Union, while defending its role as a regional power. If the European Green Deal takes off as an international driver for deepening climate and sustainable development goals with European Union strategic partners, it remains to be seen how Mexico will respond to the challenge. In this paper we address the possible implications for Mexico under each of these instruments. We look at the interplay between them, explore the linkages and possible conflictual pathways, and “disentangle” the schemes in which trade and climate change are interconnected. Mexico may be trapped in a “catch-22” situation. Environmental provisions embedded in trade treaties provide critical benefits to the country, but this often comes at the expense of “unacceptable” environmental enforcement measures that can put at risk national development plans, especially at a time when the environment and climate change issues are not at the top of the current administration’s political agenda.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, European Union, Partnerships, Trade, and Green Deal
Political Geography:
North America, Mexico, and United States of America

5. Protesting Against Crime and Insecurity: High-Risk Activism in Mexico's Drug War

Author:
Sandra J. Ley Gutiérrez
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
When do protests against crime and insecurity take place, regardless of the risks that such mobilization may entail? This paper argues that while violence provides an initial motivation for participating in protests, social networks play a fundamental role in incentivizing citizen mobilization against insecurity. Socialization within networks helps generate solidarity and empathy among participants, while at the same time transforming emotions associated with living in a violent context into potential for action. Also, through networks, individuals share information about opportunities for collective action and change their perceptions about the effectiveness and risks of such activism. These distinct mechanisms are valuable for the activation of protest against crime across levels of violence. Supporting evidence is derived from an original dataset on protest events in reaction to violence in Mexico between 2006 and 2012. Additionally, I rely on qualitative in-depth interviews and participant observation to illustrate the role of networks in protest against crime across several Mexican states. This paper contributes to the growing literature on criminal violence and political participation.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Crime, Social Movement, Protests, Violence, Social Networks, and Activism
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

6. Criminal Groups and a Decade of Displacement in Central America and Mexico

Author:
David James Cantor
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Organized criminal groups in the North of Central America and Mexico (NCAM) make global news headlines. 3e bloody reputation of drug tra4cking structures from Mexico during the past decade rivals the global infamy of Colom- bian groups such as the Medellín and Cali cartels during the 1980s and 1990s. Brutal gangs in the North of Central America (NCA)—formed by the countries of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala—have even served as a bogey-man in presidential campaigns in the United States during the 2010s.1 But what about the predicament of the people living in the zones to which organized criminal groups lay claim? Much has been written about the levels of violence to which these populations are exposed; however, what is less understood, even today, is how the aggressive activities of organized criminal groups have produced waves of internal and external displacement and the implications of this displacement for the global community. 3is paper draws on research conducted by the author over the past decade to re5ect on the crisis of forced displacement that has a6ected these populations in the NCAM during the 2010s. 3e paper analyzes statistical data concern- ing refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to o6er observations on the scale of displacement within the NCAM and across borders; the diverse organized criminal groups that generate di6erent but overlapping dynamics of displacement; and the response in law and policy to this displacement within these countries and in the Americas more generally. Finally, this paper ends by arguing that the displacement in the NCAM has important implications not only for those countries but for the Americas and at the global level, as well.
Topic:
Crime, Trafficking, Displacement, and Cartels
Political Geography:
Central America, North America, and Mexico

7. Mexico’s Automotive Industry: A Success Story?

Author:
Jorge Carreto Sanginés, Margherita Russo, and Annamaria Simonazzi
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
In less than three decades Mexico’s automotive industry has gone from a minor role to the 7th largest world producer of automotive vehicles. The Mexican experience is part of the more general case of the “integrated peripheries.” The development of these cannot be accounted for separately from the developments occurring in its core country. Unlike the core-periphery literature, however, our analysis emphasizes that the various clusters of cores and integrated peripheries are not alike. In the case under study, the core has been systematically lagging behind the main transformations pioneered by its competitors. The paper traces the evolution of the Mexican automotive industry, emphasizing the difficulties faced by a late-comer country in developing an independent industry, and the importance of policy choices as well as the macroeconomic context in affecting its development. NAFTA represents the culmination of an integration process that has profoundly transformed the structure of the Mexican automotive industry, deepening its dependence on the US market. While there is no doubt that it has contributed to the spectacular growth of the Mexican auto industry, whether it also increased its resilience or, rather, its dependence is still an open question. This issue is particularly relevant in view of the transformations that are taking place in the automotive sector and in the geopolitical scenario. These include the end of NAFTA and the advent of USMCA, the entry of powerful competitors into the global market, and the transition to electric and autonomous vehicles, which all entail risks and opportunities. The lens of the centre-periphery relationship can help to understand the present integration of North America and its future direction.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, NAFTA, Regionalism, Industry, and Motor Vehicles
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

8. A Decision Tree for Digital Payment Services: The Case of Mexico

Author:
Ivonne Acevedo and Miguel Szekely
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper explores the reasons why digital payment services in Mexico are used to a much lower extent than would be expected considering the country’s level of development and the authorities’ efforts to expand these types of services during the past two decades. The paper applies the analytical framework proposed by Claessens and Rojas-Suarez (2020), which consists of identifying the binding constraints preventing an increase in the usage of digital payment services, among a set of alternative explanations. The methodology starts by evaluating the price and usage of digital payment services to discover whether constraints may be on the supply side, the demand side, or both. The main findings suggest that the crucial binding constraints on the expansion of digital payment services in Mexico are mainly on the supply side of the decision tree. Indeed, we identify the regulatory framework seems to be a binding constraint, since it creates an unlevel playing field among the providers of digital payment services. Current regulation could also be a constraint on increasing the provision of digital financial infrastructure, particularly for expanding cash-in and cash-out access points in rural areas. Thus, relaxing the regulatory constraint could enable the expansion of digital payment services. In addition, there is evidence suggesting that a coordination failure, reflected in a strong preference for transacting in cash, might be a binding constraint in the country. Perceived low or nonexistent benefits from using digital payment services could be the source of the coordination failure, since it prevents the formation of a critical mass of users, which in turn discourages suppliers from offering these services.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, Services, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

9. Introducing the Mind-the-Gap Index: A tool to understand urban spatial inequality

Author:
Jeni Klugman and Matthew Moore
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Where people live exerts a strong influence on multiple aspects of their well-being, including their access to economic opportunities, education, health and other services and to their security, as well as other goals envisioned in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In a world with high and growing levels of urbanization, policy makers are increasingly aware that the future of inequality depends largely on what happens in cities. There is also concern that rising spatial inequality can lead to social unrest, rioting, increased crime, and erode trust among separated societal groups. The World Bank estimates that half of the area that will be urbanized by 2050 has not yet been built, which implies major opportunities for the policies and decisions affecting cities to shape the world we live in. First, this paper synthesizes several research papers regarding what we already know–drawing on recent research from UNDESA and others–to outline the extent of spatial disparities, the ways that spatial inequality shapes today’s cities, and the key factors driving spatial disparities. Additionally, the paper introduces a new index designed to capture key dimensions of spatial inequality, along with analysis of results from three pilot applications in Addis Ababa, Jakarta, and Mexico City which highlights the importance of granular and up-to-date data, as well as the accumulating nature of disadvantage in poor neighborhoods.
Topic:
Inequality, Sustainable Development Goals, and Urban
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Mexico

10. Mexico’s Automotive Industry: A Success Story?

Author:
Jorge Carreto Sanginés, Margherita Russo, and Annamaria Simonazzi
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
In less than three decades Mexico’s automotive industry has gone from a minor role to the 7th largest world producer of automotive vehicles. The Mexican experience is part of the more general case of the “integrated peripheries.” The development of these cannot be accounted for separately from the developments occurring in its core country. Unlike the core-periphery literature, however, our analysis emphasizes that the various clusters of cores and integrated peripheries are not alike. In the case under study, the core has been systematically lagging behind the main transformations pioneered by its competitors. The paper traces the evolution of the Mexican automotive industry, emphasizing the difficulties faced by a late-comer country in developing an independent industry, and the importance of policy choices as well as the macroeconomic context in affecting its development. NAFTA represents the culmination of an integration process that has profoundly transformed the structure of the Mexican automotive industry, deepening its dependence on the US market. While there is no doubt that it has contributed to the spectacular growth of the Mexican auto industry, whether it also increased its resilience or, rather, its dependence is still an open question. This issue is particularly relevant in view of the transformations that are taking place in the automotive sector and in the geopolitical scenario. These include the end of NAFTA and the advent of USMCA, the entry of powerful competitors into the global market, and the transition to electric and autonomous vehicles, which all entail risks and opportunities. The lens of the centre-periphery relationship can help to understand the present integration of North America and its future direction.
Topic:
Networks, Manufacturing, Trade Policy, Production, and Automotive Industry
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico