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401. Main Strategic Considerations of Contemporary Israel

Author:
Yossi Peled
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
The relocation of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem draw once again the attention of international community to Israel. The event of relocation is in line with the decision of the Trump administration reached in December last year, a move that has its legal foundation in the Jerusalem Embassy Act that was passed by the US Congress as far as 1995. For more than twenty years, the American administrations have been delaying the decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, and the Jerusalem Act was void of presidential signature until Donald Trump became president. In the same year when he took of�ice president Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital city of the State of Israel and ordered the relocation of the US embassy from Tel Aviv. Ever since the time of David, the king of Israel who conquered Jerusalem more than three thousand years ago, and his son king Solomon who built the First Temple, Jerusalem was the Holy City for Jews around the world and the center point for Israel and Judaism. At the same time Jerusalem is a holy site for the Palestinians and the Muslim world, hence a source of confrontation for the two sides. Notwithstanding, people of Israel believe that Jerusalem cannot be divided and that only Jerusalem due to its cultural, historical and religious importance for the Jews, is and can be the only capital city of the State of Israel. However, this status of Jerusalem is still not fully internationally recognized, with a number of United Nations states who do not acknowledge the right of Israel to sovereignly rule in Eastern Jerusalem, including the Old City where most sacred sites of Judaism are located – the Western Wall and the Temple Mount.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Imperialism, International Cooperation, Religion, and Anti-Semitism
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

402. Is the IDF Ready for Our Next War?

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The IDF is building an impressive capacity to crush Hezbollah, Hamas and Iranian assets in future fighting. But it must not neglect defense of the periphery or go soft on its ethos and fighting spirit.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

403. Netanyahu in India

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits India just half a year after the first historic trip of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Israel (July 2017). These visits reflect the significant expansion in relations between the two countries that has taken place since the establishment of full diplomatic relations in 1992.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Middle East, India, Israel, and Asia

404. Israel is Worthy and Winning

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
There are competing narratives about Israel: that it is flying-high, or that it is heading towards disaster. Wise and important actors around the world are coming to the conclusion that the first assertion is true. Israel is an anchor of sanity and a source of ingenuity in an unruly world. Israel’s strategy of vigilance, patience, and looking over the horizon for new partnerships is working.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Anti-Semitism, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

405. A tale of Two Speeches

Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Harper and Pence have offered moral and spiritual leadership for the world. Their momentous Knesset speeches were epoch-making events.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Middle East, Canada, Israel, North America, and United States of America

406. Israel Is Not Deporting Refugees

Author:
Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel’s policy is legal and justified. Citizens’ well-being must come before that of illegal immigrants.
Topic:
Immigration, Border Control, Refugees, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

407. ‘Fix it or Nix it’ is the Wrong Approach

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
What needs “nixing” is not the JCPOA – a piece of paper – but the Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Infrastructure, Nuclear Power, Denuclearization, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

408. A Sense of Victory on Both Sides: A Recipe for Escalation in Gaza?

Author:
Amos Yadlin
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Following the "March of Return" events led by Hamas on two turbulent Fridays at the border fence between Israel and the Gaza Strip, both sides declared victory. And in the case of such a blatantly asymmetric conflict between parties with opposing aims, both sides can indeed claim victory, precisely because they are conducting parallel maneuvers. Israel operates largely on a physical dimension (protecting its sovereign territory), while Hamas works mainly on the cognitive-political level. In a world of images, intensive information campaigns, and mass media (including fake news), a sense of victory on both sides could intensify the hostilities on the Gaza border and perhaps even beyond in the coming weeks. Israel must stress that it is defending a recognized international border; clarify the legality and proportionality of its use of live fire; expand its visual documentation of the events; update Arab countries about the facts and balance the pro-Hamas messages delivered in the Arab media; and prepare for an escalation of the conflict. Finally, while focused on the immediate challenge of mass demonstrations on the Gaza border, Israel must continue to address the underlying issue: the growing distress in Gaza and the collapse of its infrastructures will make it hard for Israel to continue managing the situation with relatively low political, military, and financial costs. Mid-May will be followed by the month of Ramadan and another scorching summer. Temporary success in containing the new challenge posed by Hamas will not defuse the social-economic-military time bomb ticking in the Strip.
Topic:
Terrorism, Infrastructure, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

409. From the First Intifada to the "March of Return"

Author:
Yohanan Tzoreff
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The "March of Return" events have brought out the masses. It seems that since the first intifada the Palestinian arena has not witnessed such widespread mass participation as evident in the recent protests along the Gaza Strip border. At the same time, it is doubtful whether the crowds can deliver the same achievements they furnished in the first intifada. This is due to public suspicions regarding the intentions of both Fatah and Hamas, the absence of international and Arab support so far, and the deterrent element of Israel's response. A new chapter appears to have opened in the Israeli-Palestinian struggle, in which the Palestinian public is asked to decide which of the two paths proposed by the respective leaderships – in Ramallah and in Gaza – should be adopted. In the background are the echoes of failure of both paths – the path of negotiation and security coordination led by the Palestinian Authority, and the path of armed opposition led by Hamas. The main test now is for Hamas, as the ruler of the Strip. Will it succeed by means of the "March of Return," which it is leading but did not initiate, to extend the common denominator between the rival Palestinian camps, to heighten the motivation to maintain the tension along the border, until the planned climax on May 15? Or will it be satisfied with the attempt to place the blame for the failure of internal Palestinian reconciliation and the weakening internal reality on the Palestinian Authority leadership in Ramallah? Time will tell.
Topic:
Refugees, Conflict, Hamas, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

410. When Parallel Red Lines Meet: Recent Events in Syria in Various Contexts

Author:
Assaf Orion and Amos Yadlin
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
At the strategic level, the convergence in time and space of the events following the chemical weapons attack in Duma by the Syrian regime portend a dramatic development with substantial potential impact for Israel’s security environment. The attack on the T4 airbase, attributed to Israel, falls within the context of the last red line that Israel drew, whereby it cannot accept Iran’s military entrenchment in Syria. The attack in Duma reflects the Syrian regime’s considerable self-confidence at this time. As for Trump, the attack provides him with another opportunity to demonstrate his insistence on the red lines that he drew and take a determined stance opposite Putin. Thus, Israel’s enforcement of its red line and the United States’ enforcement of its red line have met, while Russia finds itself exerting efforts to deter both countries from taking further action that could undermine its achievements in Syria and its positioning as the dominant world power in the theater. However, the strategic convergence does not stop at Syria’s borders, and is unfolding against the backdrop of the crisis emerging around the Trump administration’s demands to improve the JCPOA, or run the risk of the re-imposition of sanctions and the US exiting the agreement. Indeed, the context is even wider, with preparations for Trump’s meeting with North Korean President Kim on the nuclear issue in the far background. Therefore, the clash between Israel and Iran in Syria on the eve of deliberations on the nuclear deal could potentially lead to a change from separate approaches to distinct issues to a broader and more comprehensive framework with interfaces and linkages between the issues.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North Korea, Syria, and North America

411. The Attack on the Chemical Weapons Targets in Syria: Doing the Minimum

Author:
Udi Dekel and Carmit Valensi
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Besides the operational success, the attack in Syria earned the United States a clear political achievement, with the enforcement of American red lines by way of a coalition with Britain and France. However, this ad hoc coalition is focused solely on preventing the use of chemical weapons in Syria, and as Trump administration spokesmen clarified, there is no change in the US policy toward Syria. As such, the United States is threatening neither the Assad regime, nor the growing Iranian presence or Russian dominance in Syria. This attack was also not enough to address definitively the violations of the rules of war and the wide-scale attacks on civilians by Assad forces, including the use of conventional weapons, such as massive bombings from the air and barrel bomb attacks from helicopters. The United States and its partners did not present a plan to guarantee that the targeted attacks against civilians – and not just chemical attacks – on the part of Assad and the coalition that supports him will not continue. However, after seven years of war, in which more than a half a million people have been killed and millions have been displaced or have become refugees, the Syrian civilian population deserves more committed international support. For its part, Israel remains alone in the campaign against the consolidation by Iran and its proxies in war-torn Syria.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, and Chemical Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and North America

412. National Home Front Exercise "Solid Stand": Doubts concerning Civilian Preparedness for an Emergency

Author:
Meir Elran and Carmit Padan
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
"Solid Stand," the annual nation-wide exercise conducted by the Home Front Command, was held in the framework of the large IDF general staff exercise. Since the home front participation was part of a classified military exercise, the involvement of civilian parties and the general public became less relevant. As a result, the ability of the civilian organs, which play a key role in the management of any emergency, to take part in the drill was limited. This article presents a number of primary gaps in the realm of state and military readiness that must be addressed in order to improve the civilian population's preparedness for what is believed to be a high risk scenario in the next conflict.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

413. What Happened to Israel’s Policy of Ambiguity vis-à-vis Syria?

Author:
Shmuel Even
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
In March 2018, with the approval of the military censor, Israel officially assumed responsibility for destroying the Syrian nuclear reactor on September 6, 2007, in an operation against what was considered an emerging existential threat. Before the public announcement, senior Israeli officials confirmed that for several years, the IDF has attacked strategic weapons in Syria meant for Hezbollah that were considered as posing an intolerable danger to Israel. These official statements have put an end to Israel’s long-standing policy of ambiguity about a series of aerial strikes on Syrian territory.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Weapons, Hezbollah, Air Force, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Syria

414. Strengthening the JCPOA

Author:
Ephraim Asculai, Emily Landau, Daniel Shapiro, and Moshe Ya'alon
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Against the backdrop of the visit to Washington by President Macron and the scheduled visit by Chancellor Merkel in an effort to persuade US President Trump not to leave the JCPOA, this article zeros in on the key issues that need to be addressed by the allies. Guided by what is not only necessary but feasible at this late stage, the topics addressed include missiles, inspections, lack of transparency, sanctions, and the sunset provisions. Everything turns on political will – if it exists, agreeing to the proposed steps should not entail a lengthy process, and implementation can realistically begin in relatively short order. Significant results will mean the international community emerges with reinforced solidarity and a strengthened JCPOA. If negotiations progress seriously on this basis, it would make sense for the Trump administration to allow additional time beyond May 12 to complete them.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and North America

415. Israel and United States Military Assistance to Egypt

Author:
Shimon Arad
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
In January 2018, the United States and Egypt signed a bilateral communications security agreement known as the Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA), which protects and regulates the use of sensitive American avionics and communications systems. This development now allows, for the first time, the acquisition by Egypt of US-made high precision GPS-based air-to-ground weapon systems and components, as well as advanced air-to-air missiles. Over the years, Israel’s concerns over the sale of large quantities of US weapon systems to Egypt were moderated by the quality cap dictated by the absence of a CISMOA agreement. Israel thus needs to raise this issue with Washington, within the context of the Qualitative Military Edge (QME) discussions. Given the unreliability of enduring stability in the Middle East, as exemplified by the events in Egypt since 2011, Israel should not disregard possible future scenarios in which its QME versus Egypt may matter. Based on the current convergence of security interests between Israel and Egypt, raising this issue with the US, though likely to upset Cairo, is not expected to undermine the practical manifestations of this relationship.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, North America, and Egypt

416. Who Will Make the Decision?

Author:
Gal Perl Finkel and Gilead Sher
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The Knesset has recently amended the “Basic Law: The Government,” with respect to "authority to declare war or conduct a significant military operation." Under the previous legislation, this authority was given to the government, but the new law grants the authority to the Ministerial Committee for National Security (the Security Cabinet). However, the final version of the new law goes even further, and concludes: "Under extreme circumstances and for reasons that will be noted…the prime minister and the minister of defense are authorized to make the decision in a more restricted legal quorum." Such a law has almost no equivalent in Western democracies. It lacks the checks and balances essential to a democratic regime and is bound to undermine the principle that war is an act requiring maximum domestic and international legitimacy. Yet in view of the new legislation, the Security Cabinet's work should be improved so that it will be fully familiar with the strategic matters on the agenda. In addition, both for the sake of checks and balances and the prevention of an overconcentration of authority in the hands of individuals and so that more than two elected representatives of the people bear responsibility for cardinal policy measure such as war and peace, at least the entire Security Cabinet should participate in the decision. The tactical decisions can and should be made in restricted forums, but it is best for such a momentous decision as a declaration of war to be taken in a broad forum that bears the burden of the responsibility.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Democracy, Conflict, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

417. President el-Sisi's Second Term: The Challenge of Legitimacy

Author:
Ofir Winter and Khander Sawaed
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
As expected, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was reelected Egyptian president in late March 2018, this time, with 97.08 percent of the vote. More than affording an electoral mandate, the recent elections highlighted the incumbent president's challenge of legitimacy, which is reflected in two spheres. The first is the exacerbation of the internal splits within the ruling military establishment. The second is growing alienation between the ruling establishment and the general Egyptian public and civilian elements. The precarious state of the regime's legitimacy is a cause for regional and international concern. It may detract from the regime's ability to carry out the next stages of the economic reform sponsored by the International Monetary Fund, and will complicate efforts to obtain the cooperation in the war against terrorism by the local civilian population in the Sinai Peninsula. In the medium and long terms, the enhanced internal friction in the military and tension between the ruling establishment and civilian forces may jeopardize the country's stability. The legitimacy challenge also affects Egypt's relations with Israel. The regime needs broad public legitimacy in order to incur political risks, such as controversial decisions in favor of bilateral or regional cooperation with Israel. In addition, a regime with unsteady legitimacy might be tempted to adopt a populist anti-Israel line in order to strengthen its public standing. At the same time, the political situation in Egypt also provides an opportunity for increasing bilateral cooperation with Israel in areas contributing to the regime's legitimacy: the economy, security, energy, water, agriculture, and tourism.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Legitimacy, and IMF
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

418. The Parliamentary Elections in Lebanon: Hezbollah’s Victory within the Political Status Quo

Author:
Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
In the May 6, 2018 elections in Lebanon, the Shia bloc led by Hezbollah succeeded in increasing its power in the parliament at the expense of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri’s party. Nevertheless, due to the country’s electoral system, the political status quo achieved in December 2016 will likely be maintained. The process of forming the government will once again reignite the power battle between Hezbollah and Iran on the one hand and al-Hariri and his supporters in Saudi Arabia and in the international community, mainly France and the United States, on the other hand. The election results will encourage Hezbollah to continue to consolidate its power and its ability to wield influence in the Lebanese political arena. The drive to promote this objective may also act as a restraining factor in the organization’s conduct vis-à-vis Israel. Therefore, at the present time, Hezbollah will presumably opt to continue to use Syria as its preferred theater for action against Israel.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Elections, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon

419. Iran in the Nuclear Realm and Iran in Syria: A New State of Play

Author:
Assaf Orion and Amos Yadlin
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Despite the two blows Iran sustained last week, Israel cannot afford to be complacent or overly satisfied. It will need to follow meticulously the updated policies adopted by each of the theater’s involved actors. Thus far, Israel has held separate policies regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the Iranian proxy war and malevolent influence. Now, it must develop an integrative long term policy and strive for coordinated efforts and meaningful cooperation with the United States, European countries, and the countries of the region. Operational and strategic coordination with Russia remains essential. Contending with the Iranian nuclear challenge will require the establishment of a joint “strategic early warning enterprise,” with the United States and other allies, aimed at preventing critical surprises.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and North America

420. Israel Apartheid Week 2018

Author:
Michal Hatuel-Radoshitzky
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
In comparison to previous years, the 2018 Israel Apartheid Week (IAW) was somewhat smaller in scope, and calmer in the level of energies it generated among both protagonists and antagonists. Still, it would be unwise to dismiss the IAW phenomenon as insignificant. In addition to the repercussions of the cumulative effect of efforts to delegitimize Israel in general, and efforts to equate Israel with apartheid during IAW in particular, the growing number of Jewish students who support and even instigate passionate campaigning against Israel is troubling. While the Israeli government's controversial policies vis-à-vis the Israeli-Palestinian conflict fuel some of the events, IAW, similar to the BDS campaign, should not be mistaken for a pro-peace, pro-two-state, or pro-dialogue endeavor. Thus, both the State of Israel and Israel supporters should be minded toward engaging in a long term effort; strive to develop quantifying and measurement indices capable of obliterating the "noise" generated by IAW; monitor new trends in the phenomenon; and enable free and secure flow of knowledge between all relevant players in their efforts to counter IAW events. Findings also emphasize the state's important role in working systematically and strategically to bridge between the Jewish communities in Israel and in the Diaspora.
Topic:
Apartheid, Diaspora, Protests, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

421. The Future of Jerusalem: Between Public Opinion and Policy

Author:
Zipi Israeli and Udi Dekel
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The waves of terror in Jerusalem in recent years have disproved two false assumptions that have long guided Israeli governments. The first is that it is possible to maintain the status quo in the city, including on the Temple Mount. The second false assumption is that Jerusalem is a united city. This line of thinking is at odds with the reality in the east of the city, especially the neighborhoods and villages where for 51 years, neglect has reigned supreme and few Israeli Jews ever enter. Even now, Israeli control there is limited, especially in areas on the outer side of the security barrier. A clear majority of Israelis agree that today, in practice, Jerusalem is divided into a Jewish city and an Arab city. Consequently, a string of urgent actions is needed, first and foremost improvements to municipal services, infrastructures, and quality of life in East Jerusalem, as well as incentives to involve the Arab population in the Jerusalem municipal authority. Most of the Israeli Jewish public feels that the current reality in Jerusalem is highly problematic and difficult to sustain forever. Therefore, at present there is growing openness to new and creative ideas, and the steps proposed to improve living conditions support a range of future options for East Jerusalem.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Refugee Crisis, Borders, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

422. The European Union after the United States Withdrawal from the JCPOA

Author:
Shimon Stein
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
President Trump’s announcement that the United States would withdraw from the JCPOA is the most recent development in a series of unilateral decisions by the administration that have thrown relations between the US and its European allies into a crisis. In the short term, Germany, France, and Britain, like the European Union as a whole, will need to confront their relations with Iran vis-à-vis the nuclear deal against the background of the American withdrawal, and in the long term, their future relations with the United States. Indeed, the crisis stemming from the agreement with Iran is a symptom of the fundamental disagreement that has characterized US-Europe relations since President Trump entered the White House, which reflects only limited commitment by the US to multilateral frameworks. Still, Europe’s dependence on the United States in the realm of security and economics is significant, and it has no potential alternative in the foreseeable future. As for Israel, even if many members of the European Union understand Israel’s need to contend with the threats posed by Iran, the EU is not party to the opposition of Prime Minister Netanyahu to the nuclear deal. It is therefore still unclear how Europe will respond to Israel’s position, which encouraged a situation whereby the deal that the Europeans regarded as an achievement of recent European foreign policy, and as a tool for achieving stability in the Middle East, will be erased.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, European Union, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, North America, and Israel

423. Israel Must Rule Generously in Jerusalem

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Investment in eastern Jerusalem is the core of sovereign political action that will keep Jerusalem whole and make it prosperous for all.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, Democracy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

424. When Will The Next War Begin?

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
It must be made clear to Israel’s rivals in both the north and the south that they will pay a very serious price for attacking Israel.
Topic:
Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

425. Toward a New Model for the U.S.-Israel Relationship

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
By leveraging its remarkable achievements in the fields most relevant to future conflicts, Israel can transition from dependence on the U.S. to partnership.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

426. Waking Up to the Iranian Threat

Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
With the weakening of ISIS, the growing strength of Russia in Syria, and the continuing retraction of American involvement in the region – Iran apparently feels emboldened enough to escalate its confrontation with Israel.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and ISIS
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

427. The Demand for Sovereignty over Judea and Samaria is a Waste of Zionist Energy

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The longing for Jewish sovereignty over the historic homeland of the Jewish people is understandable. Nevertheless, the recent attempt to pass a law declaring Israeli sovereignty over the settlements in Judea and Samaria is useless.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, Law, and Zionism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

428. What a Crown Prince Wants

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Funds and favor for Saudi Arabia 2.0, and also to smash Iran.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Saudi Arabia

429. On the State of Israel’s role in combating anti-Semitism

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Global Forum for Combating Anti-Semitism, which met last week in Jerusalem, needs focus.
Topic:
Religion, Governance, Discrimination, Diversity, and Anti-Semitism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

430. The missing piece of the puzzle

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Given the bad nuclear deal signed with Iran, Israel must be diligent about risk management; no matter how relentless intelligence gathering efforts are, not all threats can be countered. Israel will not allow enemy states to go nuclear.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

431. After the Latest Chemical Attack, the US Should Stay in Syria

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel and America must avoid one-fit-all options regarding the military challenges in different parts of disintegrating Syria.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

432. Israel won’t tolerate Iranian presence in Syria

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Russia may demand due consideration, but Israel has proved time and again that it will not allow Iran to tighten its grip on Syria, even if doing so stokes regional tensions.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

433. The Holy Sepulchre Wake-up Call

Author:
Lazar Berman and David Gurevich
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Crises between the State of Israel and Christian institutions will continue to arise, unnecessarily, until Israel creates a central authority to manage a coordinated strategy regarding relations with Christians.
Topic:
Religion, Governance, Minorities, and Discrimination
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

434. Global tensions: No end in sight

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
With global tensions on the rise, Israel could find itself alone, both in the struggle to prevent a nuclear Iran and in trying to contain Iran’s actions in Syria.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

435. The Great Distraction of Punitive Airstrikes

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Don’t congratulate the administration on avoiding Russian retaliation. The humanitarian crisis in Syria remains, and the real collision course here is between Israel and Iran.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

436. 70 years of strategic success

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Despite military threats and other challenges, the State of Israel is winning on all fronts. Israel is stronger and healthier than all its enemies combined.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

437. Macron’s Message: Towards a New Deal with Iran?

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The French president’s visit to served to demonstrate Macron’s importance as a dynamic and proactive European player, and as a partner in the effort to curb Iran’s strategic ambitions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and France

438. Capture of the Iranian nuclear documents: A fantastic intelligence feat

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Iran should understand that Israel has the ability to reach the most sensitive places in Tehran.
Topic:
Intelligence, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

439. Capture of the Iranian nuclear documents: A fantastic intelligence feat

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Iran should understand that Israel has the ability to reach the most sensitive places in Tehran.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Intelligence, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

440. Persuading Europe to pressure Iran

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel’s revelation of Iran’s nuclear deception aims to show the world that the 2015 deal with Iran must indeed be renegotiated in the interests of global peace.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Peace, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

441. The depth of Iran’s deception

Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Many criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s unveiling of a secret Iranian nuclear archive as “nothing new” and “a performance.” But there was plenty new in his presentation, and it will have far-reaching implications.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Intelligence, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

442. Trump Changes the Discourse

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The broader context to US President Trump’s recent decisions to nix the nuclear deal with Iran and to move the US embassy to Jerusalem is restoration of America’s credibility as a world power after eight years of diffident presidential leadership.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

443. Tehran is paying a heavy price

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Iranian provocation on the Golan Heights failed, and the Iranians would do well to cut their losses now and end their confrontation with Israel.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

444. Don’t ease-up on Iran

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel’s intelligence branches need to understand what was destroyed and then identify where and how Iran intends to push its military build-up forward – and neutralize that as well.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

445. Under fire but unfazed, Israel plays the waiting game with Iran

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Does Israel require that all presence of the Iranians be removed from Syria, down to the last proxy fighter? If so, then conflict between Tehran and Jerusalem is a near inevitability, since there is no chance of Iran acquiescing to this except by coercion. On the other hand, if the Israeli intention is to prevent the Iranians from transferring certain weapons systems into Syria — advanced anti-aircraft systems, ballistic missiles, drones — then conflagration may not be so imminent.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Drones, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

446. The Fourth Trilateral Eastern Mediterranean Summit

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Amidst the tensions and transformations even of these dramatic days – the American withdrawal from the Iran deal, the violent confrontation in Syria, the ongoing Hamas provocations on the Gaza border, and the opening of the US embassy in Jerusalem – it was easy to lose sight of another landmark event. It is remarkable that by now a tripartite summit of Prime Minister Netanyahu and his fellow eastern Mediterranean leaders – President Anastasiades of Cyprus and Prime Minister Tsipras of Greece – is no longer remarked upon. Their meeting was the fourth of its kind. It has now become part of a broader pattern of consolidated cooperation between the three countries. Still, the (exceedingly long) joint statement issued in Nicosia on May 8 is a striking document. Like its predecessors (January 28, 2016 in Nicosia, December 8, 2016 in Jerusalem, and June 15, 2017 in Thessaloniki), the statement asserts that this is not an exclusive club. “Like minded” nations are urged to join the efforts to make the eastern Mediterranean safer, more stable and more prosperous.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

447. Gaza Prejudice and Perfidy

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
What is Western support for “Israel’s right to exist within secure and recognized borders” worth if those borders cannot be defended?
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Minorities, Discrimination, and Borders
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

448. Erdogan: Anti-Semite and regional threat

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel should ring the alarm bells about Turkish adventurism. Under Erdogan, Turkey has become a dangerous country on the road to authoritarianism.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Leadership, Conflict, and Anti-Semitism
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

449. 10 reasons to tank the F-35 jet sale to Turkey

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Turkey is no longer a reliable Western ally. Provision of the F-35 jet would strengthen Erdogan’s authoritarian Islamist regime and boost its capabilities for regional mischief.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Military Affairs, Authoritarianism, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

450. The diplomatic day after Abbas

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel should be preparing for a paradigm change with regard to administration of the territories; a move beyond rotten reliance on Fatah leadership and the creaky two-state construct.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Peace, Anti-Semitism, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine