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42. The Implications of the Fall of Kabul
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The region, and Israel, need the ASEAN model of cooperation.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
43. The Road to Natanz Runs Through Beirut
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- One of the issues that must be dealt with before the Iranian nuclear program is removing the threat of Hezbollah missiles.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
44. National Security Policy Recommendations for Israel’s 36th Government
- Author:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Eleven policy prescriptions for Israel’s new government, reflecting the insights of JISS fellows who jointly surveyed the challenges Israel’s leaders are facing and crafted these diplomatic and defense policy emphases.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
45. There is No Clear-Cut Solution for Gaza
- Author:
- Yaakov Amidror
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- There are plenty of nice plans for Gaza, but none that will change the core truth: Hamas will continue to seek Israel’s destruction, and Israel will continue to defend itself.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
46. Nine lessons for Israel following Gaza operation
- Author:
- Aiman Mansour and Micky Aharonson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Don’t be blackmailed, don’t expect Hamas to keep its promises, and take initiative.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
47. Breaking the Israel-Palestine Status Quo
- Author:
- Zaha Hassan, Daniel Levy, Hallaamal Keir, and Marwan Muasher
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- A new U.S. approach should prioritize protecting the rights and human security of Palestinians and Israelis over maintaining a peace process and attempting short-term fixes. The authors of this paper identified four overarching areas of focus: (1) prioritize rights and protect people, (2) roll back the Trump administration’s actions and reassert international law, (3) clarify expectations for Palestinians and Israelis, and (4) support new multilateral approaches and accountability.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
48. The Growing Threat Facing Israel from Iraq
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Iraq is already part of the northern crescent of threats facing Israel. The US presence, broader policy regarding Iran makes Israeli action in Iraq more complicated than in Syria.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Israel
49. Egyptian Mediation between Israel and Hamas Can Be Useful
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- For the first time in 13 years, an Israeli foreign minister (Gabi Ashkenazi, a former Chief of Staff of the IDF) has visited Egypt for talks with his Egyptian counterpart (Sameh Shukri). At the same time, the head of Egyptian Intelligence, Abbas Kamel, landed in Israel to discuss the situation regarding Gaza with Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gantz. Both visits are parts of a bid by President ‘Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi to take the lead in stabilizing the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel and managing the next steps in the broader Israeli-Palestinian context. Egypt has already benefitted from this. The initiative broke the ice between Sisi and the Biden Administration. Israel, stands to gain, as well. Unlike their predecessors, Sisi and Shukri have welcomed the Abraham Accords. Israel and Egypt have common interests in the eastern Mediterranean. And the Egyptians, for their own reasons, do not trust Hamas. Still, Israel is entitled to insist that as mediators, the Egyptians should keep Jerusalem off the table. It would be dangerous for many in the region were Hamas to gain a strategic foothold there. Israel also should insist on a swift release of its citizens held by Hamas and the return of the bodies of dead soldiers held since 2014. Additionally, it would be useful for the Egyptian government to curb the coarse anti-Israeli and often antisemitic discourse in its state-owned media and the Egyptian public domain, which acts to constrain Cairo’s options.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt
50. Ramifications of an American Return to the 2015 Nuclear Agreement
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar and Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- By ignoring Israel’s views on an issue critical to its security, Washington will cast a dark shadow over Israel’s status as a key American ally in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and JCPOA
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
51. The Battle for Marib: A Tipping Point of the Civil War in Yemen?
- Author:
- Uzi Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The West is focusing on the tragic humanitarian costs of the war in Yemen while turning a blind eye to the significant strategic implications of a Houthi/Iranian victory. This approach imperils Middle Eastern and Western security.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil War, Conflict, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Yemen
52. Structural Shifts and Regional Security: A View from Israel
- Author:
- Ehud Eiran
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Israel is still holding to its traditional security maxim. Based on a perception of a hostile region, Israel’s response includes early warning, deterrence and swift – including pre-emptive – military action, coupled with an alliance with a global power, the US. Israel is adjusting these maxims to a changing reality. Overlapping interests – and perhaps the prospect of an even more open conflict with Iran – led to limited relationships between Israel and some Gulf states. These, however, will be constrained until Israel makes progress on the Palestine issue. Israel aligned with Greece and Cyprus around energy and security, which may lead to conflict with Turkey. Russia’s deployment in Syria placed new constraints on Israeli freedom of action there. The US’s retrenchment from the Middle East is not having a direct effect on Israel, while the Trump administration’s support for Israel’s territorial designs in the West Bank may make it easier for Israel to permanently expand there, thus sowing the seeds for future instability in Israel/Palestine. The EU could try and balance against such developments, but, as seen from Israel, is too divided to have a significant impact. Paper produced in the framework of the FEPS-IAI project “Fostering a New Security Architecture in the Middle East”, April 2020.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Gas, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, United States of America, and Mediterranean
53. Israel-Iraq Cooperation in 2019: Security Challenges and Civilian Warming
- Author:
- Ronen Zeidel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The final months of 2019 were marked by widespread, prolonged protests throughout Iraq, which began in October. Baghdad was the focal point of the demonstrations, which were directed at the ruling political elite and the state backing it: Iran. Prime Minister Adil AbdulMahdi resigned at the end of November, throwing official Iraq into a political vacuum and guaranteeing that any premier appointed to replace him would be considered an interim ruler and as such, his government would only be accepted by the weakened political elite, but not by a significant part of the population. This article reviews the changes that occurred in 2019 in the nature of Israel-Iraq cooperation, as they relate to diplomatic, security, economic and civilian aspects.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Civilians
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
54. Israel-Morocco Cooperation in 2019: Warming from the Bottom Up
- Author:
- Einat Levi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- This article examines the current Israel-Morocco cooperation and its development through 2019. It briefly describes developments in diplomatic, security, economic and civilian arenas in order to find common ground and identify trends. Naturally, the paper will not elaborate much on the security-intelligence aspect of the cooperation, despite its centrality, due to its classified nature.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, and Morocco
55. Egyptian Plague or Spring of Youth? The Israeli Discourse regarding the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Lior Lehrs
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- From the outset of the protest events in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Libya and other countries, many people in the world began using the term “Arab spring” to describe the sequence of events in the various locations. The term was based on the term “theSpring of Nations,” that refers to a wave of national revolutions in Europe in the mid-19th century. It seemed to take a little longer for the term to penetrate the Israeli discourse on the subject and even when it did many hesitated to accept it and had reservations about its positive and optimistic connotations. For instance, Minister of Strategic Affairs Moshe (Bogie) Yaalon stated that “the event is dramatic and historic and will be given a name, but not the Arab spring.” Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan also opined it was a mistake to use the term “Arab spring” and explained that “whoever coined the phrase drew it from events that occurred in Europe in 1848, when liberal ideas proliferated in the world. The truth is there is no liberal message.” Former head of military intelligence Amos Yadlin said “we understand today that the pair of words ‘Arab spring’ did not describe correctly the phenomenon that rocked the Middle East in 2011.” The Israel Defense Forces’ intelligence branch discussed the issue and decided that the term “Arab spring” was unsuitable and decided to use the term “upheaval” as the official term describing the events.4 Many other people in Israel, as shall be described below, began using the terms “Arab winter” or “Islamic winter” as terms to challenge the original term and express a negative reading of the events. This article wishes to present an analysis of the Israeli discourse following the Arab Spring events as articulated by different parties in diverse forums of conversation. The article analyzes the public and media conversation in Israel and includes an analysis of statements, articles and public opinion surveys and refers to different players (politicians, public figures, journalists and military commanders) and different issues and questions that have arisen as part of the conversation on the subject.
- Topic:
- Security, Intelligence, Arab Spring, History, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries
56. Israel's Relations with Key Arab States in 2019
- Author:
- Yitzhak Gal, Haim Koren, Moran Zaga, Einat Levi, and Ronen Zeidel
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- Israel-Jordan: Continued Deterioration / Yitzhak Gall Israel-Egypt: Strategic Warming, Civilian Coolness? / Dr. Haim Koren; Israel-UAE: Warming Relations, Also in Civilian Affairs/ Dr. Moran Zaga; Israel-Morocco: Warming from the Bottom Up / Einat Levi; Israel-Iraq: Security Challenges and Civilian Warming / Dr. Ronen Zeidel
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, and Civilians
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and UAE
57. Russia's Foreign and Security Policy in the Middle East: Entering the 2020s
- Author:
- Ekaterina Stepanova
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- As Russia has become a major external player in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region due to its military engagement in Syria since 2015, it has acted as a balancer and mediator in several regional controversies and has continued to serve as a security guarantor for the Syrian state. This course has brought Moscow some practical dividends, such as growing economic and military-technical cooperation with select MENA countries, and has spurred its broader international profile. However, entering the 2020s, the risks of more active engagement in the Middle East have also mounted, making Russia’s balancing act more difficult. In three cases where Russia’s involvement has been visible (Syria, Libya and the Israeli-Palestinian problem), evolving developments challenge Moscow’s acquired influence and multi-vector approach, but also create new opportunities for its engagement and mediation. Above all, the 2020 US–Iran crisis catalysed the urgent need for structured regional dialogue, especially across the Persian Gulf. While this requires direct interaction between the region’s main antagonists, the initial impulse to unlock the trans-Gulf impasse might need to come from the outside. A process-oriented blueprint for inclusive multilateral security in the Gulf proposed by Russia in 2019 is a step in the right direction, but to be activated it may need to come as part of some broader international initiative.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Palestine, North Africa, and Syria
58. US Must Protect Israel’s QME After F-35 Sale to UAE
- Author:
- Yaakov Amidror
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- As the largest arms supplier to the Middle East, America plays a critical role in ensuring that its sales uphold and do not adversely affect Israel’s security
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Arms Trade
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, United States of America, and UAE
59. China’s Alternative Vision for Gulf Security
- Author:
- Tuvia Gering
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Trump’s Middle East peace plan and the recent Israel-Arab peace accords limit Chinese influence in the region. Countering this, China is advancing a collective security concept for the region based on the JCPOA. The US and Israel must stymie this Chinese gambit and reinforce the Abraham Accords.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Peace, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America
60. Rabin’s True Legacy
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Prime Minister Rabin insisted on defensible borders. He never entertained a return to the 1967 borders nor any territorial swaps.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel