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Begin New Search Political Geography Global Focus Content Type Working Paper

201. Does the adoption of peer-to-government mobile payments improve tax revenue mobilization in developing countries?

Author:
Abdoul-Akim Wandaogo, Fayçal Sawadogo, and Jesse Lastunen
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Developing countries need to raise sufficient tax revenue to finance development. Revenue mobilization is often hampered by limited tax compliance, weak institutions, and technical problems with tax collection. One solution to these challenges is person-to-government (P2G) mobile phone payments, adopted in a number of developing countries since the early 2000s. This study assesses the causal effect of P2G adoption on tax revenue using propensity score matching. According to the matching estimates, countries that adopt P2G services experience a 1.2–1.3 percentage point boost in direct tax revenue as a share of GDP. P2G adoption increases revenue from both corporate and personal income taxes, with larger effects on the latter. The results remain robust to matching quality tests and alternative estimation methods, including function control, two-stage least squares, and system generalized method of moments. The average treatment effects are largest among lower-middle-income countries and countries characterized by limited tax compliance and corruption control, and by low levels of urbanization and domestic credit to the private sector. The findings suggest that developing countries, particularly those with poor institutions and low levels of financial inclusion, should promote the adoption and use of mobile money services for tax transactions.
Topic:
Development, Government, Finance, Economy, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:
Global Focus

202. Revisiting the links between economic inequality and political violence: The role of social mobilization

Author:
Patricia Justino
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The main aim of this paper is to explore theoretically important mechanisms through which economic inequalities may affect the emergence of political violence given the forms of social mobilization they (may) generate. The paper identifies and explores two mechanisms under which social mobilization in unequal societies may result in either non-violent or violent collective action and, ultimately, in violent conflict. The first condition is the level of social cooperation between different social groups that are formed during the process of social mobilization. The second is the efficacy of collective action to drive change, which is in turn shaped by the ability of individuals within groups to coordinate their actions. Forms of social mobilization become violent when antagonism is the dominant form of social interaction between different social groups in unequal societies, and when each of these social groups exhibits high levels of internal coordination.
Topic:
Political Violence, Economics, Social Movement, Inequality, Mobilization, and Collective Action
Political Geography:
Global Focus

203. Measuring illicit financial flows: A gravity model approach to estimate international trade misinvoicing

Author:
Lourenço S. Paz
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Illicit financial flows have recently attracted the attention of academia, practitioners, and multilateral organizations who consider them harmful to economic development. Some observers suggest that many of these flows occur via the misinvoicing of international trade transactions. This study develops a novel methodology based on the gravity model of international trade to estimate illicit financial flows using publicly available product-level international trade data. It contributes to the literature by estimating product-level transportation and insurance costs and providing, for the first time, an estimation for all countries of an upper bound of the values of export and of import over- and under-misinvoicing separately, without resorting to assumptions about trade statistics reliability. Application of the methodology is illustrated using six-digit product-level UN Comtrade data for 2013–16. The results indicate that misinvoicing is not confined to a few products or countries but is a widespread phenomenon that deserves future research.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Transportation, Illicit Financial Flows, and Misinvoicing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

204. Ethnic dominance and exclusion: Unpacking cross-national data

Author:
Andrea Vaccaro
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
It is widely accepted that the distribution of power between ethnic groups within a country plays a key role in major social, political, and economic outcomes. Researchers working on the topic have various measures of ethnic dominance and exclusion, and other closely related aspects such as ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and heterogeneity, available to them. These measures are, however, often used without sufficient critical reflection and their empirical differences are not entirely understood. The literature does not provide too much guidance either. In fact, efforts to comparatively evaluate data on how power is distributed between ethnic groups are in short supply. To address this gap in the literature, the study at hand provides a comprehensive descriptive analysis of publicly available common cross-national country-level measures on ethnic dominance and exclusion. The findings of this study suggest that Varieties of Democracy’s Exclusion by Social Group and Ethnic Power Relations’ Ethnic Exclusion are more alike than the other measures under scrutiny, yet in general the empirical differences among common measures of ethnic dominance and exclusion are substantial. Scholars should thus reject an ‘any measure will do’ approach when choosing among competing measures.
Topic:
Ethnicity, Data, and Exclusion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

205. The global inequality boomerang

Author:
Ravi Kanbur, Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez, and Andy Sumner
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper we argue that the decline in global inequality over the last decades has spurred a ‘sunshine’ narrative of falling global inequality that has been rather oversold, in the sense, we argue, it is likely to be temporary. We argue the decline in global inequality will reverse due to changes in the between-country component. We find there is a potentially startling global inequality ‘boomerang’, possibly in the mid-to-late 2020s, which would have happened even if there were no pandemic, and that the pandemic is likely to bring forward the global inequality boomerang.
Topic:
Inequality, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

206. Impact of female peer composition on gender norm perceptions and skills formation in secondary school

Author:
Martina Querejeta
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines peer effects on students’ gender norm perceptions and skills formation. I use a Uruguayan nationally representative survey of 9th grade students and exploit the quasi-random variation in the proportion of female peers across classes within schools for causal identification. Results show that a higher exposure to female peers in the class leads to more progressive gender norms. Furthermore, these effects in gender perceptions are driven mostly by male students. Female students are also impacted by peers’ sex composition and significantly reduce the time devoted to domestic work and improve mathematics scores when exposed to more female peers. No effects on language were found for either sex. Thus, exposure to female peers operates not only by reducing traditional gender perceptions but also by changing actual behaviour regarding housework and academic performance of female students. My results suggest that short peer interactions in secondary school contexts may have substantial effects on reducing gender stereotypes and change gendered behaviours among students.
Topic:
Developing World, Inequality, Peer Effects, and Gender Norms
Political Geography:
Global Focus

207. Affirmative action: meaning, intentions, and impacts in the big picture

Author:
Satu Kuitunen
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper provides a broad overview of the meaning of affirmative action and its intended and unintended impacts. The paper is a literature review and does not make any arguments specifically for or against affirmative action but describes the broad arguments and findings in the existing literature. Central to the definition of affirmative action is its proactive nature in rectifying horizontal inequalities and historical wrongdoing. Motivations can be ethical, economic, or political. The designation criteria and the scope of affirmative action also vary across countries, which affects how its effectiveness and value are measured. Affirmative action can have positive intended impacts as well as adverse unintended impacts, and the jury is still out on its overall effectiveness. Affirmative action has also been implemented on the grounds of conflict management, but the results have been mixed, and the evidence of affirmative action as a conflict management tool is limited.
Topic:
Education, Inequality, Literature Review, and Affirmative Action
Political Geography:
Global Focus

208. The indirect costs of corporate tax avoidance exacerbate cross-country inequality

Author:
Javier Garcia-Bernardo, Daniel Haberly, Petr Janský, Miroslav Palanský, and Valeria Secchini
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Corporate tax avoidance hampers domestic revenue mobilization and, with it, the development of lower- and middle-income countries. While a wide range of studies has shed light on the magnitude of profit shifting by multinational corporations, the indirect costs of this behaviour is underexplored. These indirect costs are likely to be skewed based on a country’s level of income. We hypothesize that developed countries tend to recover a larger part of corporate tax revenue losses (primary effects or direct costs) via capital gains and dividend taxes on corporate investors (secondary effects). Furthermore, developed countries can offset tax losses by borrowing in financial markets at very low interest rates (tertiary effect or, together with secondary effects, indirect costs). In this paper, we introduce a dynamical model that includes not only corporate tax revenue losses but also tax revenue collected from capital gains and dividend taxes, as well as government borrowing costs. We use country-by-country reporting data on the operations of multinational corporations to estimate profit shifting, alternative operationalizations of the location of investors to proxy the tax revenues from capital gains and dividend taxes, and yields on government bonds to measure the cost of borrowing. Our results show that when these indirect costs are included, the total cost of profit shifting for developing countries increases significantly, while some developed countries can often offset or recover the majority of the direct costs of profit shifting. The ability of the latter to do this is, however, uneven with, for example, most European countries losing revenues from profit shifting even after indirect effects are taken into account. Only a handful of other countries actually appear to profit from profit shifting—and by an amount that is far smaller, in relation to gross domestic product, than the losses suffered by others.
Topic:
Inequality, Multinational Corporations, Tax Systems, and Tax Havens
Political Geography:
Global Focus

209. Countering global oil theft: responses and solutions

Author:
Etienne Romsom
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This second of two papers on global oil theft discusses ways to reduce oil theft, misappropriation, and fraud. At US$133 billion per year, oil is the largest stolen natural resource globally, while fuel is the most smuggled natural resource. Oil theft equates to 5–7 per cent of the global market for crude oil and petroleum fuels. It is so engrained in the energy supply chain that thefts are priced in by traders and tolerated by many shipping companies as petty theft. Oil theft and related insecurity have substantial negative economic effects on developing countries, whether they produce oil or not. In 2012, non-oil-producing Benin saw a 28 per cent drop in taxable income after a spate of oil tanker hijacking incidents in the Gulf of Guinea in 2011. In Nigeria, the oil capacity shut-in and amount of oil deferred is more than twice the amount estimated as stolen, with a US$20 billion annual loss in petroleum profit tax—63 per cent of total government tax revenue in 2019. Organized oil crime syndicates are often transnational and conduct theft and fraud professionally, exploiting gaps in jurisdiction and adapting their practices when law enforcement becomes more effective. They evolve from ship piracy to stealing tanker cargoes to kidnapping tanker crews; from physical ransom of assets to digital hijacking via ransomware. The proceeds of oil theft often finance other organized crime, and it triggers violence against the community and in crime-on-crime activities. Twelve commonalities in oil theft and fraud have been identified that can direct international solutions, in three target areas: stolen oil volumes, stolen oil transport, and stolen oil money. Prosecution for acts of bribery offers opportunities for action: transport of or payment for illegal oil could constitute a bribe under the US Foreign Corrupt Practice Act if government officials were involved in the transaction or shipment. Bribe charges could be raised for paid ‘services’ that facilitate oil theft (through action or non-action).
Topic:
Corruption, Oil, Piracy, Cybersecurity, Fossil Fuels, Tax Evasion, and Theft
Political Geography:
Global Focus

210. Corruption and crisis: do institutions matter?

Author:
Shrabani Saha and Kunal Sen
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
While the short-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on lives and livelihoods are well understood, we know little about the effect of the pandemic for longer-term outcomes such as corruption. We look at the historical data on political and economic crises to assess what we can learn from the long-term effects of past crises on corruption. We hypothesize that strong rule of law institutions may ameliorate the possible adverse effects of political and economic crises on corruption. We test our hypotheses using panel data for over 100 countries during the years 1800– 2020. The results suggest heterogeneous effects depending on the type of crisis and how we measure it. We find that rule of law institutions can control corruption in cases of political violence and economic slowdown, but the effect is not seen for democracy breakdowns, coups, armed conflict and civil war, and economic crisis such as currency and debt crisis.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Rule of Law, Institutions, Data, COVID-19, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

211. Prosperity and Resilience: Diverse Production and Comparative Advantage in Modern Economies

Author:
David Henig and Anna Guildea
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
A common version of trade theory suggests that countries will specialise in a limited number of products. Using the example of David Ricardo from 1817, England specialises in cloth and Portugal in producing wine – and then they trade with each other to mutual benefit. However, this is a crude version of comparative advantage that routinely leads to political concerns about trade. Today the prime concern is that Europe and other developed countries have become too dependent on China by allowing the logic of comparative advantage to work. In short, trade has made us vulnerable. The observed reality is different. Most advanced economies produce and export a broad range of goods and services. Their governments have similar aspirations to develop and support diverse manufacturing and services, including in the most traded global sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automotive, business services, and food and drink. Modern specialisation comes in countries producing various, but not all, products within global supply chains. Patterns of trade suggest such specialisation has allowed countries to both grow and become resilient to individual shocks. Knowledge and ownership of the whole supply chain is more important than producing everything.
Topic:
Globalization, Economy, Services, Resilience, WTO, and Production
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

212. A Task-Based Theory of Occupations with Multidimensional Heterogeneity

Author:
Sergio Ocampo
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP), Western University
Abstract:
I develop an assignment model of occupations with multidimensional heterogeneity in production tasks and worker skills. Tasks are distributed continuously in the skill space, whereas workers have a discrete distribution with a finite number of types. Occupations arise endogenously as bundles of tasks optimally assigned to a type of worker. The model allows us to study how occupations respond to changes in the economic environment, making it useful for analyzing the implications of automation, skill-biased technical change, offshoring, and worker training. Using the model, I characterize how wages, the marginal product of workers, the substitutability between worker types, and the labor share depend on the assignment of tasks to workers. I introduce automation as the choice of the optimal size and location of a mass of identical robots in the task space. Automation displaces workers by replacing them in the performance of tasks, generating a cascading effect on other workers as the boundaries of occupations are redrawn.
Topic:
Occupation, Automation, Skills, and Tasks
Political Geography:
Global Focus

213. UN Peacekeeping and the Protection of Civilians from Sexual and GenderBased Violence

Author:
Jenna Russo
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
While all UN multidimensional peacekeeping operations are mandated to prevent and respond to conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV), the missions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and South Sudan, as well as in the Central African Republic, are also mandated to protect civilians from sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV). While SGBV is often used and understood interchangeably with CRSV, SGBV is broader in scope, as it encompasses nonsexual forms of gender-based violence and need not be connected to armed conflict. This report examines how missions are implementing their mandates to protect civilians from SGBV, including CRSV, and assesses good practices, gaps, and opportunities for improvement. The report draws on lessons learned from the UN missions in South Sudan (UNMISS) and the DRC (MONUSCO). It considers how the complexities of preventing and responding to SGBV necessitate a whole-of-mission approach to the protection of civilians (POC) that encompasses not only physical protection from violence but also activities that address cultural norms related to gender, strengthen the rule of law, and enhance women’s participation. This report thus considers a range of protection activities carried out by missions, as well as structures and processes that promote the effective integration of gender into mission planning and activities. The paper concludes with several recommendations for UN peacekeeping missions, the UN Department of Peace Operations (DPO), and member states on the Security Council to strengthen work on SGBV: Provide clear guidance on what it means to protect civilians from SGBV as part of a peacekeeping mandate; Systematically and meaningfully integrate gender advisers and women’s protection advisers into POC planning at the strategic and operational levels; Include gender-sensitive indicators in monitoring and reporting systems and prioritize the gathering of sex-disaggregated data; Take a holistic approach to protecting civilians from violence, recognizing the risks of armed responses and prioritizing partnerships; and Continue to combat impunity and engage with governments and armed groups to promote accountability.
Topic:
Security, Peacekeeping, Women, Gender Based Violence, Sexual Violence, Peace, Civilians, and Protection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

214. Measuring the intangible economy to address policy challenges

Author:
Marie Le Mouel
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
European economies exhibit the so-called ‘productivity puzzle, whereby investments’ in digital technologies and intangible assets have not delivered the hoped-for productivity gains. Explanations for this puzzle lie in the unequal ability of companies to make use of these technologies, and resulting patterns of market concentration, productivity divergence and dampened business dynamism. Access to firm-level data is essential to properly understand these rich dynamics. The purpose of the first work package of the MICROPROD project was to improve the firm-level data infrastructure, expand the measurement of intangible assets and enable cross-country analyses of these productivity trends. The MICROPROD researchers developed the Micro Data Infrastructure (MDI), a centralised platform that harmonises access to the firm-level data gathered by national statistical institutes. The data infrastructure developed through this work package offers valuable insights into the evolution of productivity across the European Union and into the effects of digitalisation and globalisation. It can thus generate important evidence for designing policies to support the European Commission’s policy objectives, especially for achieving the digital and green transitions. In addition, the research enabled by this data infrastructure and carried out within the context of MICROPROD can provide valuable lessons about the response of European economies to the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath.
Topic:
Infrastructure, European Union, Digital Economy, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

215. Knowledge flows and global value chains

Author:
Niclas Poitiers and Marta Bisztray
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The organisation of global value chains via supplier links and within business groups shapes global trade and forms a major channel through which knowledge is disseminated between countries. Global value chains are also an important channel through which economic shocks propagate. At the same time, knowledge seeking and knowledge protection are important determinants for multinational companies when structuring their production processes. Contract enforcement in general, and intellectual property rights protection in particular, are key institutions in this regard. Hierarchical ownership structures within business groups tend to be organised in the shape of an inverted pyramid, with more complex tasks located closer to the headquarters in ownership terms, facilitating stronger control. Recently, ownership structures have become ‘flatter’, meaning business groups have pulled key operations closer to their headquarters. New supply-chain relationships with key business partners are often accompanied by process and product innovation, making long-term business relationships an important driver of productivity growth. Knowledge transmission through such links not only benefits participating companies, but also leads to spillover effects. Import competition from high-income countries leads to investment in R&D and productivity growth in countries that have comparative advantage in capital-intensive goods. This is not the case for import competition from low-income countries, which instead makes companies downsize. Import competition also makes firms focus on their core product. To improve our understanding of this key aspect of globalisation, comparable microlevel data is needed on firms and firm connections across multiple countries. Trade and industrial policy can support productivity growth through global value chains by providing the right legal environment that supports the formation of longterm business relationships.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Business, Trade Policy, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

216. Is the workforce ready for the jobs of the future? Data-informed skills and training foresight

Author:
Fabian Stephany and Rosemary Luckin
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
For many newly emerging jobs, labour-market mismatches prevail as workers and firms are unable to apply precise occupation taxonomies and training lags behind workforce needs. We report on how data can enable useful foresight about skill requirements and training needs, even when that data has not been collected for this express purpose. First, we show how online generated freelance data can help monitor labour-market developments in the short run. Second, in the long run, we illustrate how data can shed light on development of workplace-ready aptitudes among students, even when these are not the direct focus of instruction. This combination of data-intensive activities can inform the immediate and long-term needs for education and training in order to help individuals develop the ability to learn, train and retrain as often and as much as needed.
Topic:
Business, Training, Data, Labor Market, Workforce, and Skills
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

217. Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty during the euro’s lifetime

Author:
Monika Grzegorczyk and Francesco Papadia
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
It is a cliché in official economic institutions’ publications and their leaders’ speeches to lament exceptional uncertainty. The complaint does, however, ring true currently. A solid empirical basis should be given to this view by properly measuring macroeconomic uncertainty. To measure macroeconomic uncertainty, we start from observable forecasts of macroeconomic variables, which are transformations of underlying economic conditions. By observing how forecasts change over time, we measure the flow of macroeconomic surprises. The more intense the flow of surprises, the greater uncertainty can be said to be. Greater differences among forecasts are also evidence of uncertainty. We draw out four indicators of macroeconomic uncertainty, measured over the lifetime of the euro: How the macroeconomic forecasts of a given institution for the same time period change over time; How the macroeconomic forecasts of a given institution deviate from realised outcomes; How the macroeconomic forecasts of different institutions deviate from one other; How dispersed the forecasts of different professionals are. We also measure whether the ‘stag-‘ or the ‘-flationary’ component is stronger in the overall stagflationary shock caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Topic:
Economy, Institutions, Macroeconomics, Uncertainty, and Euro
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

218. The role of competition in the transition to climate neutrality

Author:
Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The transition to climate neutrality requires the reallocation of production factors from polluting activities to non-polluting activities. The main push for this reallocation will come from governmental decarbonisation targets that are translated into stringent climate policy tools, such as carbon pricing and emissions standards. But the complex process of recombining production factors will require the coordination of millions of individuals and firms. The efficiency of this recombination process will be a main driver of the cost of the transition. Based on a consistent analytical framework, I argue that much more political attention should be paid to the markets and regulators that guide the re-allocation of production factors, to bring them in line with a carbon-neutral economy at the best service of European consumers. Three main issues should be considered: 1. The transition will change the role and efficiency of markets in allocating resources; 2. Competitive markets can make the transition more efficient; 3. In some areas, a too-narrow focus on competition can be detrimental, and needs to be discussed. To improve the institutions for resource allocation in the transition, policymakers should revisit three levels of intervention: 1) competition rules and enforcement should be adjusted to meet the new challenges of the transition; 2) efficient markets that are central to a climate-neutral economy – such as for electricity, emission rights or circular logistics – need to be properly designed; 3) the advantages and disadvantages of more direct state control in specific sectors should be revisited in light of the challenges of the transition. In summary, policymakers need to get away from simplistic state-or-market narratives. The focus should be on developing politically feasible frameworks for leveraging the benefits of competition for efficient resource allocation in the transition. Institutions should not focus solely on static efficiency, but must forcefully encourage investments in new systems and innovation. The role of institutions that determine resource allocation in the transition is an underappreciated but crucial area for future research and policy action.
Topic:
Climate Change, Institutions, Pollution, Carbon Emissions, Neutrality, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

219. Mapping banking centres globally since 1970

Author:
Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Brexit and the rise of China as a leading international economic power have revived discussions about the geography of banking centres. This paper analyses the geographical evolution of banking centres since the 1970s, based on a database constructed from a ranking of the top banks in the world created by The Banker magazine, a UK-based monthly publication specialised in international financial affairs. We describe both how the database was created and the ways in which it can be used to inform policy on money and capital markets. We address why the data can be used to proxy the size of International Financial Centres (IFCs) and the methodological limitations it may present. We find that banking consolidations and the evolution of the legal framework are more central to the changing geography of banking centres than economic and financial crises. We also highlight that, despite major shifts in global economic power, leading banking centres are hard to replace.
Topic:
Economy, Brexit, History, Fiscal Policy, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

220. COVID-19 in the European Union: health impacts and effects on economic activity

Author:
Leonardo Cadamuro, Scott Marcus, and Francesco Papadia
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
This paper quantitatively describes different aspects of the COVID-19 pandemics: new cases, hospitalisations, intensive-care admissions and deaths, while illustrating their changing relationships over time. It then assesses how the different variables have affected relevant sectoral and macroeconomic indicators. Finally, it concludes that, from an economic perspective, what matters when it comes to managing the pandemic is to prevent intensive-care admissions and deaths arising from COVID-19. The success of vaccination should be measured in terms of its ability to prevent the most serious consequences, rather than its ability to prevent infections and hospitalisations.
Topic:
Health, European Union, Economy, Macroeconomics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

221. The Instability of Preferences: Uncertain Futures and the Incommensurable and Intersubjective Nature of Value(s

Author:
Richard Bronk and Jens Beckert
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The default assumption of standard economics is to treat preferences as exogenously ‘given’, consistent with one another, ‘revealed’ by past choices, and context independent. There has been increased interest recently (within behavioural economics) in the impact of inconsis- tent or irrational preferences and (more broadly) in dynamic and endogenous preferences. This paper builds on these challenges to standard assumptions by analysing the pivotal role of three aspects of preference formation in explaining capitalist dynamics and market insta- bility. These are the constant creation of new preferences and the indeterminacy of choice sets in the context of widespread product innovation; the moral indeterminacy implied by conflicting and incommensurable social norms attaching to market goods where there is no single scale of value and hence no unique set of rational trade-offs; and, lastly, the con- tingent social and market construction of the product differentiation, quality attribution, and value assessments central to preference formation. The paper concludes by considering implications for economics as a discipline.
Topic:
Economics, Capitalism, Norms, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus

222. No Strings Attached: Corporate Welfare, State Intervention, and the Issue of Conditionality

Author:
Fabio Bulfone, Timur Ergen, and Manolis Kalaitzake
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
This paper contributes to Comparative Political Economy (CPE), developing an analytical concept of corporate welfare. Corporate welfare — the transfer of public funds and benefits to corporate actors with weak or no conditionality — is a prominent form of state-business relations that CPE scholarship regularly overlooks and misinterprets. Such transfers should be understood as a structural privilege of business in a globalized post-Fordist capitalism, and an increasingly common strategy through which states attempt to steward national economic dynamism within a highly constrained range of policy options. However, with- out a well-developed concept of corporate welfare – premised upon the key criterion of conditionality – studies that identify a “return” of the state in industrial planning misrepre- sent these transfers to business as a reassertion of state influence and control, rather than a reflection of state weakness and subordination. The paper provides the analytical building blocks to properly conceptualize transfers to business, works out the core challenges for em- pirical research, and provides empirical illustrations of this burgeoning phenomenon from the fields of unconventional monetary policy, privatization, and urban political economy.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Political Economy, Privatization, Monetary Policy, Welfare, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:
Global Focus

223. We Will Build the Future: A Plan to Save the Planet

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Under the leadership of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America – People’s Trade Treaty (ALBA-TCP), Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research partnered with 26 research institutes from around the world to draft A Plan to Save the Planet. This living, evolving document puts forward a vision for the present and the immediate future centred on twelve key themes: democracy and the world order, the environment, finance, health, housing, food, education, work, care, women, culture, and the digital world. Dossier no. 48 includes and elaborates on the Plan and lays out our orientation, principles, and horizon.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Regional Cooperation, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

224. The Tenth NPT Review Conference: In the Shadow of Russian Aggression in Ukraine

Author:
Shimon Stein and Ephraim Asculai
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The 10th Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference is underway in New York, against the background of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in itself a gross violation of the treaty; Putin’s threat to resort to nuclear weapons; the deadlock in negotiations with Iran; and more. In these difficult circumstances, the participants will hopefully be able at the very least to issue a joint statement affirming the norms underlying the NPT
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

225. Transportation and National Security

Author:
Yossi Daskal
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Congestion on the roads, traffic accidents, and rising levels of air pollution – transportation affects the health, economy, and well-being of the residents of Israeli Therefore, discussions of national security must include deliberations on improving transportation in Israel
Topic:
Security, Infrastructure, Public Policy, and Transportation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

226. High-Power Laser Applications on the Future Battlefield

Author:
Yehoshua Kalisky
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
“Within a year we will operate a laser interception system” – Thus the Prime Minister Bennett declared at the yearly conference of the INSS. What are the differences between the various laser systems and what are the advantages and disadvantages of these types of air defense systems?
Topic:
Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Innovation, and Laser Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

227. Investigation of Russia's Crimes in Ukraine: A Turning Point for the International Criminal Court?

Author:
Ori Beeri and Pnina Sharvit Baruch
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The Chief Prosecutor at The Hague has already begun to investigate actions taken by Russia in the Ukrainian arena, while accelerating judicial proceedings and bureaucracy. This reflects a change of approach, which includes the prioritization of recent events, as part of an effort to strengthen the status of the Court. How will this affect the investigation of the war in Eastern Europe – and the investigation concerning Israel?
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, International Crime, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Global Focus

228. Does environmental policy uncertainty hinder investments towards a low-carbon economy?

Author:
Joëlle Noailly, Laura Nowzohour, and Matthias Van Den Heuvel
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
We use machine learning algorithms to construct a novel news-based index of US environmental and climate policy uncertainty (EnvPU) available on a monthly basis over the 1990-2019 period. We find that the EnvPU index spikes during the environmental spending disputes of the 1995-1996 government shutdown, in the early 2010s due the failure of the national cap-and-trade climate bill and during the Trump presidency. We examine how elevated levels of environmental policy uncertainty relate to investments in the low-carbon economy. In firm-level estimations, we find that a rise in the EnvPU index is associated with a reduced probability for cleantech startups to receive venture capital (VC) funding. In financial markets, a rise in our EnvPU index is associated with higher stock volatility for firms with above-average green revenue shares. At the macro level, shocks in our index lead to declines in the number of cleantech VC deals and higher volatility of the main benchmark clean energy exchange-traded fund. Overall, our results are consistent with the notion that policy uncertainty has adverse effects on investments for the low-carbon economy hindering progress to address the urgency of climate action.
Topic:
Environment, Finance, Economy, Investment, Institutions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

229. World Economy Autumn 2022: Global growth falters

Author:
Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Nils Sonnenberg, Stefan Kooths, and Jan Reents
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
In spring 2022, world economic growth came to a standstill amid high inflation, persistent supply bottlenecks and elevated uncertainty. In many countries real wages are declining significantly dampening private consumption even though extra savings accumulated during the pandemic are still available to mitigate the adverse impact to some extent. At the same time financial conditions have also deteriorated as central banks tightened their policies. In China, the strict zero-covid policy and problems in the real estate sector are slowing economic activity. Against this backdrop, the outlook for the global economy has deteriorated further. We have, again, lowered our forecast and are now expecting global output to increase by only 2.9 percent this year and 2.2 percent next year (calculated on a purchasing power parity basis). The forecast assumes that commodity prices will gradually decline in line with forward prices, which will over time reduce the upward pressure on prices and provides the foundations for an economic upturn in 2024. However, the pass-through of higher commodity prices into consumer prices is probably not yet complete and wage increases are likely to intensify in many countries. Consequently, underlying inflation is likely to remain higher than in the years before the Covid crisis and remain above central bank targets over the forecast horizon
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Economic Growth, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

230. World economy in summer 2022: Inflation is curbing global growth

Author:
Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Nils Sonnenberg, Stefan Kooths, and Jan Reents
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
In a situation with already elevated inflation, the war in Ukraine and the zero-covid policy in China have led to additional upward pressures on prices and reinforced the global supply chain problems. Real wages are declining in many countries, dampening personal consumption expenditures even though households are often able to draw from a substantial amount of extra savings accumulated during the pandemic. Given the widespread inflationary pressures, central banks have shifted towards a more restrictive monetary policy stance. Against this backdrop, the outlook for global growth has weakened. We forecast global growth of 3.0 percent in 2022 and 3.2 percent in 2023 (measured in terms of purchasing-power parities), representing a reduction by 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points for 2022 and 2023, respectively. The forecast is based on the assumption that commodity prices have peaked, which would reduce inflationary pressures considerably going forward. However, there is the risk that inflation proves to be more persistent than central banks expect. In such a case, central banks would need to step on the brakes more than assumed, with the risk of a recession in advanced economies and a pronounced deterioration in financial conditions in emerging markets
Topic:
Security, Economics, Inflation, COVID-19, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

231. Do various innovation linkages enhance innovation? International evidence

Author:
Rajeev K. Goel
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Whereas various drivers of the international innovative activity have been studied in the literature, our understanding of the contributions of different innovation linkages to innovation deserves more attention. Are the different innovation linkages equally complementary to research inputs in fostering innovation? This paper addresses the contributions of different innovation linkages to innovation, across two different measures of innovation. We find that a broader index of innovation linkages shows positive and significant spillovers on innovation, while joint ventures and university-industry collaborations fail to exert a significant influence. These spillovers are reinforced by the positive and expected impacts of R&D spending. In other results, greater venture capital investments boost innovation in most cases, while more FDI boosts one type of innovation output. These findings are uniquely shown to be sensitive across least- and most innovative nations when a quantile regression is employed. Implications for technology policy are discussed.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

232. Closing Pandora’s Box: How to Improve the Common Reporting Standard

Author:
Menusch Khadjavi and Marjolein Vertelman
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The 2021 pandora papers show that many wealthy individuals and even politicians use shell companies to hide their fortunes. In order to fight international personal tax evasion, the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) was implemented and it helped governments to collect USD 85 billion already. USD 182 billion are still missing from the government budget because of personal tax evasion. The individual implementation strategies of CRS compliant countries can endanger the effectiveness of the Automatic Exchange of Information (AEOI). Several loopholes are used to circumvent the CRS. There are amendments possible which increase the effectiveness by improving the implementation strategies and closing the loopholes. The enforcement of the CRS should become stricter by removing financial institutions’ licenses to operate in cases of non-compliance. Beneficial ownership registers should increase transparency regarding investments and securities. Within the current momentum of international tax legislation, the CRS compliant countries may leverage the USA into signing the CRS as well. The USA could in turn demand a more effective CRS before signing it.
Topic:
Reform, Finance, Business, and Wealth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

234. Lessons from the COVID-19 Crisis: 6 Opportunities to Strengthen Conflict Sensitivity across the HumanitarianDevelopment-Peacebuilding Nexus

Author:
Céline Monnier and Leah Zamore
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic, and efforts to control its spread—including lockdowns, social distancing measures, and border closures—have led to unprecedented health, humanitarian, and socioeconomic shocks worldwide. These shocks, in turn, are raising the likelihood that risks for many forms of violent conflict—crime, armed conflict, violent extremism—may increase. It is crucial for the United Nations (UN) to adopt a conflict-sensitive lens in all relevant operations across the humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding (HDP) nexus to prevent an increasingly volatile situation from deteriorating further.
Topic:
Development, United Nations, Conflict, COVID-19, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

235. Good Peacebuilding Financing: Recommendations for Revitalizing Commitments

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Paige Arthur, and Betty N. Wainaina
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
At a moment of intense global pressure due to the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, support for prevention and peacebuilding remains as vital as ever. This brief offers action-oriented recommendations to advance new and more inclusive approaches to peacebuilding financing on the eve of the UN High-level Meeting on Peacebuilding Financing.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Finance, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

236. Raising awareness about the increased threat of the criminal and terrorist use of cryptocurrencies

Author:
Nicolo Miotto
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
Criminal and terrorist organisations are increasingly using cryptocurrencies, thus leading to emerging threats in the cyberspace. Money-laundering, tax evasion, ransomware extortion, trading in illicit goods and services, purchasing of child sexual abuse material and terrorist financing are concerning criminal and terrorist activities involving the use of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and Monero are the most used cryptocurrencies among both criminals and terrorists, however other cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin, Dash and Ethereum are being growingly used in criminal and terrorist financial activities. The anonymity/pseudo-anonymity and security characterising cryptocurrencies can challenge law enforcement investigative efforts aimed at countering criminal and terrorist activities. There has not been a widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies by terrorist and criminals yet, however this is likely to change in the next future.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Cryptocurrencies, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Global Focus

238. Does Deplatforming Work? Unintended consequences of banning far-right content creators

Author:
Danny Klinenberg
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Social media has become an outlet for extremists to fundraise and organize on, potentially leading to deadly consequences. While governments deliberate on how to regulate this challenge, some social media companies have removed creators of offensive content—deplatforming. I estimate the effects of deplatforming on revenue and viewership, using variation in the timing of removals across two video-streaming companies- YouTube, and its far-right competitor, Bitchute. I construct a novel dataset including Bitcoin wallets linking YouTube and Bitchute accounts for 79 far-right content creators, including propagandists for violent domestic extremist movements. Being deplatformed on YouTube results in a 30% increase in weekly Bitcoin revenue and a 50% increase in viewership on Bitchute. This increase in Bitchute activity accounts for about 65% of the estimated foregone revenue and 5.9% of viewership lost from YouTube, implying a negative net effect of deplatforming.
Topic:
Media, Social Media, Far Right, Censorship, and Digital Space
Political Geography:
Global Focus

239. Managing for Motivation as Public Performance Improvement Strategy in Education & Far Beyond

Author:
Dan Honig
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
People management has an important role to play in improving public agency performance. This paper argues that a ‘Route Y’ managerial approach focused on supporting the empowered exercise of employee judgment will in many circumstances prove superior to conventional reform approaches steeped in ‘Route X’ monitoring and incentives. Returns to Route Y are greater when employees are or can become more “mission motivated” – that is, aligned with the goals of the agency in the absence of monitoring and extrinsic incentives. Returns to Route Y are also greater when monitoring is incomplete or otherwise likely to unproductively distort effort, thus lowering the returns to using performance-linked rewards and penalties. I argue that education systems are one (but far from the only) setting where Route Y is a lever worth focusing on in efforts to improve public performance in the developed and developing world alike.
Topic:
Development, Education, Public Policy, Performance Evaluation, and Project Management
Political Geography:
Global Focus

240. The Role of Storage in Commodity Markets: Indirect Inference Based on Grains Data

Author:
Christophe Gouel and Nicolas Legrand
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
Understanding commodity prices dynamics is of crucial importance for assessing the persistence of cost-push costs or for countries dependent on commodity exports. Unfortunately, despite decades of research, the workhorse theoretical model in the field, the rational expectations storage model, is yet to be empirically validated. This paper provides the first full empirical test of the storage model. We first build a new storage model featuring a supply response, long-run demand and cost trends, and four structural shocks. We then develop a flexible empirical approach which relies on the indirect inference method and exploits the joint dynamics of prices and quantities unlike previous estimations which only use price information. The information contained in quantities is essential to relax restrictive identifying assumptions and empirically assess the overall consistency of the model's new features. Finally, we carry out a structural estimation on the aggregate index of the world most important staple food products: maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat. The results show that our extended storage model is consistent with most of the moments in the data, including the high price autocorrelation of which up to 42% can be explained by the transfer of inventories over time. They also show that, although for these commodities supply shocks are the main drivers of market dynamics, over the past 60 years all price spikes have been associated with large positive demand shocks.
Topic:
Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, Commodities, and Price
Political Geography:
Global Focus

241. The Culture-Promotion Effect of Multinationals on Trade: the IKEA case

Author:
Dylan Bourny, Daniel Mirza, and Jamel Saadaoui
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
In this paper, we investigate how some MNEs which spread their home culture over time and space to the rest of the world are affecting, in turn, trade flows from home. By selling products embodying cultural information related to their country of origin, those MNEs embrace the role of ambassadors of their home country. We argue that IKEA offers an ideal case to identify a multinational's culture-promotion effect on trade. We build a dataset on IKEA's presence in foreign markets between 1995 and 2015 and merge it with disaggregated product level trade between pairs of countries. We find solid evidence of an externality linked to IKEA: a setting of an IKEA new store in a destination increases trade flows by around 2% from Sweden for products that resemble to what the multinational offers (despite being completely unrelated to that multinational). This result is driven primarily by the products identified to encompass a high-cultural content. Other robustness checks and tests seem to be very much consistent with the hypothesis of IKEA promoting the Swedish culture to the world.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Culture, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
Global Focus

242. Behavior Change in the Face of Disaster Risk Finance

Author:
Theodore Ezike
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
Large-scale Disaster Risk Finance (DRF) mechanisms are relatively new tools in the field of humanitarian assistance and anticipatory action that can have significant positive effects on disaster recovery. However, there is a lack of analysis on how DRF can affect behavior or risk perception, which is important for countries to understand. Drawing on findings from similar programs, such as community health and microfinance, provided insights on areas where DRF may have impact on behavior. The available research indicates that disasters make people risk averse and that insurance and other DRF mechanisms can enable beneficial outcomes. Trust in public institutions, ideally the ones that manage DRF, alongside accurate and timely information from government or other relevant actors, is needed for acceptable levels of risk to be communicated and for appropriate corresponding actions to be taken.
Topic:
Climate Change, Finance, Disaster Management, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
Global Focus

243. Work from Home – How Good is it for the Environment?

Author:
Anna Agarwal
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic led to a large-scale global experiment on work from home (WFH). WFH is expected to continue, albeit at a smaller scale, in the post-pandemic world. WFH is commonly considered to be an energy saving measure that can help reduce office travel related energy demand and energy use in offices. This article presents a framework to analyze the various direct and indirect energy use changes that WFH can potentially induce. We discuss the different long-term structural and behavioral changes from WFH, which will ultimately define energy consumption patterns. We conclude the energy savings and the related environmental impacts are ambiguous. An illustrative analysis has been performed to quantify the direct air quality impacts of work from home adoption in the Delhi region. The results show modest reductions in the levels of PM2.5 emissions, and point to the underlying uncertainties that have the potential to highly amplify or diminish the environmental benefits. The article highlights the need for in-depth multi-sectoral study of the various WFH related energy use changes over both the short- and the long-term. Such an assessment will be key to designing effective policy measures to support work from home as an environmentally beneficial practice.
Topic:
Environment, Work Culture, COVID-19, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

244. The Belt and Road Initiative as Ten Policy Commandments: Review of Xi’s Kazakhstan and Indonesia Launch Speeches

Author:
Lauren A. Johnson
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:
In 2019 Foreign Policy described China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as “the most talked about and least defined buzzword of this decade”. Given that confusion and the importance of leader political speeches in China, especially those of current President Xi Jinping, it is surprising that the BRI literature has little in-depth analysed the two launch speeches of 2013. This article seeks to fill that gap with study of those speeches and focus on the five cooperationoriented areas announced in each. In comparative context those ten pillars appear not to be descended from New Era Chinese heaven but rather demonstrate substantive thematic overlap with the ten pillars of what was once relatively mainstream macroeconomic development policy, the Washington Consensus. Yet, in the case of the BRI there is a relative implicit implementation emphasis also. In forward context of contemporary global political economy tensions, the need to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, the G7’s Build Back Better and the European Union’s Global Gateway ambitions also, this article may offer a timely fresh and comparative lens on the BRI.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Global Focus

245. Putting Development at the Centre of G20 Policy Agenda: Lessons for the T20

Author:
Daniele Fattibene and Alice Fill
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The G20 Development Working Group has gradually evolved throughout the years, following a haphazard and contradictory path. On the one hand, it has been progressively overshadowed by a sectoralisation of G20 activities, with several action tracks (i.e., the Finance Track) taking a more prominent role in the definition of the leaders’ priorities. On the other hand, its (unexploited) potential has increased due to the emergence of several global crises that have shown the importance of rekindling multilateral solutions at the G20 level. The T20 has a strong potential to boost G20 legitimacy on development cooperation worldwide, by drafting evidence-based and pragmatic policy proposals for the decision-makers. However, although often advocating for similar solutions, the Development Working Group and T20 have not necessarily fed into each other’s policy agendas, leading to misalignment and reducing their chances to influence other G20 tracks on crucial development issues such as development finance, food security or the global climate agenda.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Governance, G20, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

246. Heroes on Strike: Trends in Global Health Worker Protests During COVID-19

Author:
Sorcha A. Brophy, Veena Sriram, Haotian Zong, Chloei Andres, Maria Paz Mawyin, and Narayanan GL
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
This Accountability Note describes global trends in health worker protests between March 11, 2020 and March 10, 2021. We argue that the frequent characterization of health workers as heroes of the pandemic obscures the fact that health workers themselves describe the challenges they face during this time as violations of their rights as workers, highlighting the obligations of their employers to provide working conditions and remuneration that justify the risk they assume. Using data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) Project, we first provide a global overview of the growth in health worker protest activity in the March 2020–2021 period as compared to the March 2019–2020 period. Health workers engaged in protest activity with greater frequency during the first year of the pandemic than during the prior year. The eighty-five countries included in the ACLED data set in both the March 2019–2020 period and the March 2020–2021 period experienced a sixty-two percent increase in health worker protest activity (from 2416 protests to 3913 protests). We then provide an overview of the content of the 6589 health worker protests in the ACLED dataset between March 2020 and March 2021, describing protests in 149 countries in terms of five categories: working conditions and remuneration, resources, health system delivery issues, public policy, and other. By far, the largest category of protests during this period are those related to working conditions and remuneration. Approximately sixty-six percent (N=4358) of global protests in the 2020–2021 period expressed health worker dissatisfaction about issues such as: occupational hazards, unpaid wages, risk allowances and job security. Surprisingly, personal protective equipment (PPE) concerns—an issue covered frequently in the media—motivated a relatively low percentage of the protests (less than nine percent). We note this not to downplay the gravity of global PPE shortages, but to situate PPE shortages as one among many health worker concerns during the pandemic. Protests initiated by health workers about health system delivery issues provide an important reminder that even in the middle of a pandemic, not everything was about COVID-19. Sixty-two percent of the health system-related protests during the 2020–2021 period were about issues that were not coded as directly related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Similarly, the vast majority of health workers’ protests around public policy were not about pandemic-related government policy, but about social issues like climate change, immigration, police brutality, and elections. The aim of this analysis is to understand what health workers advocated for during a time of immense pressure, and to identify some broad areas of concern for health sector accountability. Through this analysis, we prepare the groundwork for future research and action, and share preliminary guidance regarding how health sector stakeholders—including government, health worker associations, unions, and civil society—might develop improved systems of accountability.
Topic:
Health, Protests, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

247. A Gravity Theory of Subordinate Financialisation

Author:
Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
Recent decades have marked both the globalisation of capitalism following the collapse of communism and its financialisation following the rapid growth of the world's securities markets. These developments have impacted the core-periphery divide in capitalism. In the case of globalisation, the entry of the ex-communist countries into the world capitalist system has swelled the ranks of the emerging capitalist economies (ECEs) that are kept subordinate through the pressures from the advanced capitalist economies (ACEs). In the case of financialisation, the growth of the securities markets has led to a palpable change in the pressures that perpetuate subordination. Where previously the use of authority was the chief source of those pressures, it now plays a secondary role. Absent that authority, and the ECEs would still be held in a subordinate position in global capitalism through the gravitational pull of the ACEs' financial securities markets. The central purpose of this paper is to explain this gravitational pull.
Topic:
Markets, Political Economy, Capitalism, Finance, and Financial Globalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

248. The Rise of a Rule-Based Transgressor Elite

Author:
Ronen Palan
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
Transnationally organised, rule-based transgressor elites are the wealthiest and most powerful elites today. The core of this group comprises managers of large multinational corporations and related ‘born global’ corporations, such as Tesla, eBay and the like, large investment houses, such as Blackrock, Blackstone and Vanguard, leading international investment banks and elite legal, consultancy and accounting firms. This elite core is joined by several ancillary groups. Arguably the most significant of those are midsize corporate groups, many of which are privately held. Numbering in the hundreds of thousands, perhaps even millions, they employ tactics perfected by large corporations to arbitrage rules and ensure corporate and other forms of taxation, rules specifying personal or group liabilities or other regulations, including protection of shareholders and the like, are either partially or fully avoided. To these, Ricardo de Soares adds another group; he argues elites from development countries latch onto existing institutional and professional providers serving those other elites; once they achieve their goal of transferring capital out of their own countries, they participate actively in the process of wealth and power concentration described in this paper (Soares, 2021) .
Topic:
Political Economy, Multinational Corporations, Elites, and Capital Accumulation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

249. The Environmental Consequences of Inequality

Author:
James K. Boyce
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Inequality has important consequences for the extent of pollution and natural resource depletion as well as for the distribution of the costs and benefits from environmental degradation. Inequalities in the distribution of purchasing power operate through the market, and inequalities in the distribution of political power operate through governance institutions, often with mutually reinforcing effects.
Topic:
Environment, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Inequality, Justice, and Pollution
Political Geography:
Global Focus

250. Considerations on Inflation, Economic Growth and the 2 Percent Inflation Target

Author:
Robert Pollin and Hanae Bouazza
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper considers two basic questions with respect to inflation control, inflation targeting, and overall macroeconomic performance. The initial question is: what has been the justification in research for establishing an inflation target, and specifically a low inflation rate target of 2 – 3 percent, as the organizing principle and overarching goal of macroeconomic policy? The second question is: do we actually observe stronger macroeconomic performances—as measured in standard terms of GDP growth—when macro policy operates within the framework of such low inflation targets? Our answers to these questions are straightforward. First, no serious body of research has been produced that provides a clear justification for a 2 – 3 percent inflation target as the central goal of macroeconomic policy. Further, there is no body of evidence showing that economies at any level of development consistently experience stronger economic growth outcomes when inflation is maintained at less than 3 percent as opposed to higher inflation rates, certainly within a 4 – 5 percent inflation range and, in some circumstances, somewhat higher rates still. These findings are significant insofar as they open space for considering the set of measures other than contractionary monetary policies as viable inflation control tools. It is possible that these other measures do not operate as forcefully as contractionary monetary policy in bringing inflation down to a 2 – 3 percent target range. But our findings suggest that it is not typically necessary to force down inflation to such low levels, especially given that contractionary monetary policies succeed in controlling inflation primarily through the channel of raising mass unemployment and weakening workers’ bargaining power.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Inflation, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

251. Inconsistent Definitions of GDP: Implications for Estimates of Decoupling

Author:
Gregor Semieniuk
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Efforts to assess the possibilities for decoupling economic growth from negative environmental impacts have examined their historical relationship, with varying and inconclusive results. Part of the problem is ambiguity about definitions of environmental impacts, e.g. whether to use territorial or consumption-based measures of environmental impact. This paper shows that ambiguities arising from definitional changes to GDP are sufficiently large to affect the outcomes. I review the history of structural revisions to GDP using the example of the United States, and on international comparisons of purchasing power parity, compare decoupling results using various historical definitions of GDP on the same environmental indicator, and demonstrate that changing the GDP data vintage does impact decoupling results in qualitatively important ways, with and without purchasing power parity. Inconsistencies in economic measurement introduce an additional layer of ambiguity into historical decoupling evidence and model projection into the future. To advance debate and be clear about scenario assumptions, rigorous reporting of GDP definitions used and the sharing of data vintage for subsequent comparison and replication are urgently needed.
Topic:
Environment, Political Economy, GDP, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

252. The Price of Speculation: Cryptocurrencies and Climate Change

Author:
Izaura Solipa and Gerald Epstein
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Cryptocurrencies are a form of digital currency whose popularity has rapidly increased over the past decade. What distinguishes them from other electronic currencies is their underlying technology known as the blockchain, a decentralized public ledger in which transactions among the network peers are accurately and securely recorded. The validation and mining process, where new coins are issued, is highly computationally intensive and thus requires vast amounts of energy. The literature estimates energy consumption levels of the cryptocurrency mining to be as high as those of countries such as Angola, Iceland or Cuba, and a corresponding emission of at least 3-15 million tons of CO2. We discuss these estimated impacts of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on both energy levels and the environment, and then outline alternative applications that could promote climate change mitigation. We argue that despite the latter applications and the possible benefits from the technology, particularly in the energy sector, the financial uses of blockchain are creating significant environmental costs without any clear social or economic benefit stemming from this largely speculative activity.
Topic:
Climate Change, Science and Technology, Economy, Cryptocurrencies, Blockchain, Digital Currency, and Speculation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

253. Environmental Justice and Carbon Pricing

Author:
James K. Boyce, Michael Ash, and Brent Ranalli
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Opposition to carbon pricing has come not only from the fossil fuel lobby, as might be expected, but also from environmental justice (EJ) advocates who seek to end the disproportionate environmental harms imposed upon people of color and low-income communities, and who fear that carbon pricing could reinforce rather than remedy pollution exposure disparities. This paper focuses on the objections to carbon pricing that EJ advocates have raised. They argue that carbon pricing (i) fails to reduce emissions significantly, (ii) fails to reduce the disproportionate impacts of hazardous co-pollutants on people of color and low-income communities; (iii) hits low-income households harder than richer households; and (iv) commodifies nature. This paper discusses how carbon pricing can be designed to address these very real concerns.
Topic:
Environment, Inequality, Justice, Fossil Fuels, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

254. How to respond to nuclear blackmail

Author:
Yagil Henkin and Alexander Grinberg
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Reliable deterrence is a vital interest of the West, and developing a strategy for reliable deterrence without escalation is also essential. The West could prevent escalation if it manages it carefully and with determination and credibility.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

255. Economic Costs of Friend-shoring

Author:
Beata Javorcik, Lucas Kitzmueller, Helena Schweiger, and Muhammad A. Yıldırım
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Geo-political tensions and disruptions to global value chains have led policymakers to reevaluate their approach to globalisation. Many countries are considering regionalisation and friend-shoring – trading primarily with countries sharing similar values – as a way of minimising exposure to weaponisation of trade and securing access to critical inputs. If followed through, this process has the potential to reverse global economic integration of recent decades. This paper estimates the economic costs of friend-shoring using a quantitative model incorporating inter-country inter-industry linkages. The results suggest that friend-shoring may lead to real GDP losses of up to 4.6% of global GDP. Thus, although friend-shoring may provide insurance against extreme disruptions and increase the security of supply of vital inputs, it would come at a significant cost.
Topic:
Trade, Production, Regionalization, and Friend-shoring
Political Geography:
Global Focus

256. Yet it Endures: The Persistence of Original Sin

Author:
Barry Eichengreen, Ricardo Hausmann, and Ugo Panizza
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Notwithstanding announcements of progress, "international original sin" (the denomination of external debt in foreign currency) remains a persistent phenomenon in emerging markets. Although some middle-income countries have succeeded in developing markets in local-currency sovereign debt and attracting foreign investors, they continue to hedge their currency exposures through transactions with local pension funds and other resident investors. The result is to shift the locus of currency mismatches within emerging economies but not to eliminate them. Other countries have limited original sin by limiting external borrowing, passing up valuable investment opportunities in pursuit of stability. We document these trends, analyzing regional and global aggregates and national case studies. Our conclusion is that there remains a case for an international initiative to address currency risk in low- and middle-income economies so they can more fully exploit economic development opportunities.
Topic:
Markets, Economy, Investment, and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:
Global Focus

257. Signaling Virtue or Vulnerability? The Changing Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Government Bond Yields

Author:
Zsófia Barta, Lucio Baccaro, and Alison Johnston
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
Do exchange rate regimes affect the conditions under which developed countries borrow? This paper argues that they do, but their impact on yields depends on the prevailing macroeconomic context. When investors regard inflation as the most relevant risk to bond holdings, monetary union has a distinct advantage over floating and fixed exchange rates because of its credible in-built mechanism to control inflation. However, once default is seen as the most relevant risk, exchange rate rigidity becomes a liability due to its constraining effect on governments’ ability to respond to adverse shocks. We test our argument with a moving window panel analysis for twenty-three OECD countries from 1980 to 2017. We find that before the late 2000s, inflation was penalized under floating and (to a lesser extent) fixed exchange rate regimes, but not in countries in monetary union. Since the 2010s, inflation carries no penalty under any exchange rate regime. Variables linked to default risk (debt and entitlement spending) did not affect yields under any exchange rate arrangements until the mid-2000s. Afterwards, countries in monetary union (and to a lesser extent in fixed exchange rate regimes) were significantly penalized for public debt and entitlement spending, whereas countries with floating regimes were not. Our results speak to the literatures on governments’ institutional commitments and “room to move.”
Topic:
International Political Economy, Financial Markets, Bonds, Exchange Rates, and Euro
Political Geography:
Global Focus

258. Private Insurance, Public Welfare, and Financial Markets: Alpine and Maritime Countries in Comparative-Historical Perspective

Author:
Arjen van der Heide and Sebastian Kohl
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
Contemporary capitalist societies use different institutions to manage economic risks. While different public welfare state and financial institutions (banks, capital markets) have been studied across coordinated and liberal market economies, this paper adds the private insurance sector to the study of countries’ security arrangements, following up on Michel Albert’s classical distinction between Alpine and Maritime insurance cultures. Building on extensive new insurance data collections (1880–2017) and institutional analysis, this paper corroborates the long-run historical existence of two worlds of private insurance. Maritime countries (USA, GBR, CAN) developed much bigger life and non-life insurance earlier, with no state-associated insurance enterprises and riskier investments steered towards financial markets. Alpine insurance (AUT, DEU, CHE), by contrast, was initially smaller, with strong state involvement, a significant reinsurance tradition and relatively heavy investments in mortgages and property, due to economic and financial backwardness. We argue that the larger and more “Maritime” the insurance sector, the more it made welfare states liberal and securities markets large. Insurance is thus a hidden factor for countries’ varieties of capitalism and world of welfare. The recent convergence on the Maritime model, however, implies that the riskier and risk-individualizing type of private insurance has added to privatization and securitization trends everywhere.
Topic:
History, Capitalism, Welfare, Insurance, and Financial Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

259. The Rise and Fall of Social Housing? Housing Decommodification in Long-Run Perspective

Author:
Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Sebastian Kohl, and Sarah Hellmüller
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
The comparative study of housing decommodification lags behind classical welfare state research, while housing research itself is rich in homeownership studies but lacks comparative accounts of private and social rentals due to missing comparative data. Building on existing works and various primary sources, this study presents a new collection of up to forty-eight countries’ social housing shares in stock and new construction since the first housing laws around 1900. The interpolated benchmark time series generally describe the rise and fall of social housing across a residual, a socialist, and a Northern-European housing group. The decline was steeper than for the classical welfare state, but the degree of erosion was surprisingly small in some countries where public housing associations remained resilient. Within the broader housing welfare state, social housing correlates positively with rent regulation and allowances, but negatively with homeownership subsidies and liberal mortgage regulation. A multivariate analysis shows that social housing is rather explained by housing shortages and complementarities with rental and welfare policies than by typical welfare state theories (GDP, political parties). Generally, the paper shows that conventional housing typologies are difficult to defend over time and argues more generally for including housing decommodification in welfare state research.
Topic:
Public Policy, Housing, and Welfare State
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

260. No Strings Attached: Corporate Welfare, State Intervention, and the Issue of Conditionality

Author:
Fabio Bulfone, Timur Ergen, and Manolis Kalaitzake
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
This paper contributes to Comparative Political Economy (CPE), developing an analytical concept of corporate welfare. Corporate welfare — the transfer of public funds and benefits to corporate actors with weak or no conditionality — is a prominent form of state-business relations that CPE scholarship regularly overlooks and misinterprets. Such transfers should be understood as a structural privilege of business in a globalized post-Fordist capitalism, and an increasingly common strategy through which states attempt to steward national economic dynamism within a highly constrained range of policy options. However, without a well-developed concept of corporate welfare – premised upon the key criterion of conditionality – studies that identify a “return” of the state in industrial planning misrepresent these transfers to business as a reassertion of state influence and control, rather than a reflection of state weakness and subordination. The paper provides the analytical building blocks to properly conceptualize transfers to business, works out the core challenges for empirical research, and provides empirical illustrations of this burgeoning phenomenon from the fields of unconventional monetary policy, privatization, and urban political economy.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Political Economy, Privatization, Monetary Policy, and Subsidies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

261. The Instability of Preferences: Uncertain Futures and the Incommensurable and Intersubjective Nature of Value(s)

Author:
Richard Bronk and Jens Beckert
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
The default assumption of standard economics is to treat preferences as exogenously ‘given’, consistent with one another, ‘revealed’ by past choices, and context independent. There has been increased interest recently (within behavioural economics) in the impact of inconsistent or irrational preferences and (more broadly) in dynamic and endogenous preferences. This paper builds on these challenges to standard assumptions by analysing the pivotal role of three aspects of preference formation in explaining capitalist dynamics and market instability. These are the constant creation of new preferences and the indeterminacy of choice sets in the context of widespread product innovation; the moral indeterminacy implied by conflicting and incommensurable social norms attaching to market goods where there is no single scale of value and hence no unique set of rational trade-offs; and, lastly, the contingent social and market construction of the product differentiation, quality attribution, and value assessments central to preference formation. The paper concludes by considering implications for economics as a discipline.
Topic:
Economics, Values, Endogenous Factors, and Preference Formation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

262. The Economic Impact of Political Instability and Mass Civil Protest

Author:
Samer Matta, Michael Bleaney, and Simon Appleton
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
An extensive literature has examined the economic effects of non-violent political instability events. Nonetheless, the issue of whether economies react differently over time to such events remains largely unexplored. Using synthetic control methodology, which constructs a counterfactual in the absence of political instability, we estimate the output effect of 38 regime crises in the period 1970-2011. A crucial factor is whether crises are accompanied by mass civil protest. In the crises accompanied by mass civil protest, there is typically an immediate fall in output which is never recovered in the subsequent five years. In crises unaccompanied by protest, there are usually no significant effects. Furthermore, this paper provides new evidence that regime crises (with and without mass civil protest) have heterogeneous (country-specific) effects on output per capita.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Regime Change, Political stability, Economic Growth, Protests, Economic Policy, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Global Focus

263. Thinking Outside the Container: A Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Trade Flows

Author:
Vincent Stamer
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Global container ship movements may reliably predict global trade flows. Aggregating both movements at sea and port call events produces a wealth of explanatory variables. The machine learning algorithm partial least squares can map these explanatory time series to unilateral imports and exports, as well as bilateral trade flows. Applying out-of-sample and time series methods on monthly trade data of 75 countries, this paper shows that the new shipping indicator outperforms benchmark models for the vast majority of countries. This holds true for predictions for the current and subsequent month even if one limits the analysis to data during the first half of the month. This makes the indicator available at least as early as other leading indicators.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Trade, Shipping, and Machine Learning
Political Geography:
Global Focus

264. Restructuring Sovereign Bonds: Holdouts, Haircuts and the Effectiveness of CACs

Author:
Chuck Fang, Julian Schumacher, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Sovereign debt crises are difficult to solve. This paper studies the “holdout problem”, meaning the risk that creditors refuse to participate in a debt restructuring. We document a large variation in holdout rates, based on a comprehensive new dataset of 23 bond restructurings with external creditors since 1994. We then study the determinants of holdouts and find that the size of creditor losses (haircuts) is among the best predictors at the bond level. In a restructuring, bonds with higher haircuts see higher holdout rates, and the same is true for small bonds and those issued under foreign law. Collective action clauses (CACs) are effective in reducing holdout risks. However, classic CACs, with bond-by-bond voting, are not sufficient to assure high participation rates. Only the strongest form of CACs, with single-limb aggregate voting, minimizes the holdout problem according to our simulations. The results help to inform theory as well as current policy initiatives on reforming sovereign bond markets.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, Law, and Credit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

265. "Systemic Risks": A Conversation on Nuclear Technology and Deterrence with Dr. Vipin Narang

Author:
Dylan Land
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Fletcher Security Review (FSR): What do you perceive as the greatest threat to global nuclear security? Where do you see the greatest potential for the outbreak of nuclear war? ​ Vipin Narang (VN): Rather than focusing on regions, I see three trends which I think we should be concerned about. One is the return of a great power arms race, and a lot of this was exacerbated in the Trump administration. Even as we head into the Biden administration—which extended the New START Treaty with Russia for five years—Russia and China are modernizing their nuclear forces at breakneck speed. They are worried primarily about U.S. missile defenses, which at this point are unconstrained. The United States has a variety of missile defense systems at the regional level which work pretty well, as well as the national missile defense system, which doesn’t…yet. You will often hear that the national missile defense system does not work very well and that is true—the success rate is around 60 percent in simulated tests. It may be difficult to ever get it to work perfectly or even well, but it is the prospect that the United States might get it to work that really drives modernization efforts in Russia and China..... ​
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Risk, Deterrence, and Interview
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Global Focus, and United States of America

266. Media and Securitisation: The Influence on Perception

Author:
Alberto Tagliapietra
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The relationship between media and perception is essential to securitisation processes. Through the adoption of specific wordings and narratives the media can and do influence the public perception of a given phenomenon as a challenge or even an existential threat to public security, economic prosperity, social stability or cultural homogeneity. Media narratives are exploited by political actors, which promote and/or instrumentalise securitised issues in order to present themselves as the only actors able to provide a solution. During the years of the “migration crisis”, many media outlets in Europe created a perception of the magnitude of migration phenomenon that had little basis in empirical data while also portraying it as inherently threatening. The securitisation to which migration was subjected led to a much worsened perception of migrants by the public and consequently to a greater political appeal of parties that made anti-immigration the core of their public discourse.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Mass Media, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

267. Global Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Capital Allocation Strategies Between Impact Ambitions and Measurement Challenges

Author:
Sara Lovisolo
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Responsible investment as a capital allocation strategy has evolved from its ethical and political origins to embrace science-based considerations and outcome-based approaches in the context of the urgent action required in response to climate change and the Sustainable Development Goals. This shift can pose both threats and opportunities to companies seeking to get access to a diversified investor base. The investment environment companies are faced with varies depending on the geographical context and the investment style of investors. In particular, the rise of passive investment – that is the replication of financial indices in the construction of fund portfolios – is an important tool for the integration of sophisticated environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in investment strategies. The US, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Africa present different levels of maturity and strengths in the space of responsible investment, calling for ad-hoc responses from investee companies. Across all jurisdictions the challenge of effectively measuring the impact of responsible investment is one investors and policymakers alike are still grappling with. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, July 2021.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Political Economy, Foreign Direct Investment, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

268. How Do World Bank Staff Perceive the Institutional Environment for Building Citizen Engagement into Projects?

Author:
Rachel Nadelman
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
How do World Bank staff perceive institutional opportunities and bottlenecks for undertaking citizen engagement (CE) as part of projects? The Accountability Research Center (ARC) at American University sought to answer this question by going beyond formal institutional directives and asking the staff themselves. ARC interviewed 30 World Bank staff involved with stakeholder and civic engagement in different capacities. Respondents represented the World Bank’s six administrative regions and a range of Global Practices, as well as operational, analytic, advisory, and managerial roles. The Open Society Foundations funded this independent research, which took place in consultation with senior World Bank management, without their direct involvement in the research or writing. During the February–August 2019 research period, the World Bank initiated an internal restructuring process which included changes to the leadership of the citizen engagement agenda. This report offers important insights that continue to be relevant for the Bank’s crucial CE work, particularly for its Citizen Engagement and Social Accountability Global Solutions Group in the new Social Sustainability and Inclusion Global Practice. The findings can also contribute to the efforts of public interest groups interested in strengthening the World Bank’s work in this area. The main findings resulting from this qualitative survey of World Bank staff perceptions include: Staff overwhelmingly credited the World Bank’s mainstreaming commitments for having increased the prominence of CE across the institution and expanding its visibility in projects. However, most viewed incentives as geared toward meeting minimum standards rather than achieving maximal impact; The primary internal promoters of the CE agenda, Regional and Global Practice Focal Points, are hampered by significant time and financial constraints. The institutional emphasis on compliance with minimum project design standards has meant that most do not know if or how the design commitments are carried out in practice; Staff consistently cited a lack of reliable, dedicated funding for CE monitoring and follow-up support for why advancements in design would not translate into improved CE in practice; Staff perceived that those World Bank regions and sectors that pursued CE most ambitiously and consistently were those whose management actively sought visibility for the agenda and proactively advocated for and secured dedicated funding; There is limited strategic coordination between the Bank’s CE agenda and its new Environmental and Social Framework (ESF), which establishes standards for stakeholder engagement and information disclosure. Unlike the CE agenda, the ESF introduces policy reforms supported by strict guidelines, dedicated staff, and uniquely robust monitoring and enforcement apparatus. More consistent attention to finding synergy would allow the CE program to leverage the ESF’s strengths while bolstering the unique aspects of CE that the ESF does not cover.
Topic:
World Bank, Institutions, Workforce, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Global Focus

269. The Nature of Money and the Theory of International Trade: Thornton and Ricardo

Author:
Isabella Weber
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
A rich recent literature reinvestigates the nature of money, but little attention has been paid to the ramifications of the ways in which we theorize money for the theory of international trade. This paper examines the logical relationship between the neutrality of money and self-balancing trade based on Henry Thornton and David Ricardo as two foundational contributions to credit and commodity money theories respectively. I show that both authors theorize trade as self-balancing whenever money is conceptualized as neutral. I distinguish two notions of the neutrality of money: ex ante and ex post neutrality. In Thornton’s Paper Credit money is not neutral ex ante: there can be temporary trade imbalances. But in the long-run money is neutral ex post and international trade boils down to self-balancing barter. In Ricardo money is neutral both ex ante and ex post and international trade is always balanced unless central bank policy undermines monetary neutrality.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Economy, Money, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

270. The Impact of Environmental Regulations on Manufacturing Outsourcing: Re-examining the Pollution Haven Effect in Global Value Chain

Author:
An Li
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
As countries worldwide attempt to address a series of global and domestic environmental challenges, the pollution haven effect remains an ongoing concern among trade and environment researchers and policymakers. This paper examines the pollution haven effect in the context of global value chains using inter-country input-output data at the manufacturing industry level from 1995-2009. This paper pays special attention to the issue of “doublecounting” caused by intermediate trade. The analysis utilizes two outsourcing measures and two revealed comparative advantage measures appropriate for analyzing global value chains. I propose women’s political power as a novel instrumental variable to address the endogeneity of environmental regulation. Regression results show that more stringent environmental policies are not a significant determinant of manufacturing outsourcing and competitiveness in global value chains. At the same time, women’s political power is associated with more stringent environmental policies.
Topic:
Environment, Women, Economy, Trade, Pollution, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

271. Notes on Covid-19, Potential GDP, and Hysteresis

Author:
Thomas Michi
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This note provides a model framework for thinking about stabilization policies in the presence of hysteresis after a negative shock like the Covid-19 pandemic. Headline measures of so-called potential GDP published by the Congressional Budget Office represent only one of many possible inflation-neutral trajectories for output. The term potential GDP is misleading since potential implies a unique limit on output. It is much more accurate to consider a range of possible trajectories or multiple equilibria. Repairing the damages from a shock will require overshooting the inflation target and running the economy above its inflation-neutral equilibrium in order to restore the status quo ante level of output and employment. The model assumes constant trend growth so that path dependence takes the form of pure output-level effects.
Topic:
Political Economy, GDP, COVID-19, and Financial Stability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

272. The Flimsy Foundations of Neoliberal Macroeconomics: David Gordon on Saving, Investment, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

Author:
Robert Pollin
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
David Gordon was, at once, a highly creative economist with an enormous range of interests, while also uncompromising in maintaining rigorous research standards. He was focused equally on hard-core academic research and pressing policy issues. He was also openly committed to the political left, with this commitment animating all his work. One distinctive feature of Gordon’s work was his keenness to dive into the most important topics engaging mainstream economists and to inject explicitly left political economy perspectives into these mainstream debates. This paper focuses on two important examples of Gordon’s contributions that examine front-and-center mainstream macroeconomics questions. The first is the relationship between aggregate saving and investment. The second is the development of the concept of the ‘natural rate of unemployment.’ The evolution of mainstream research on these two questions played a critical role in overturning what had been, over the first two post-World War II decades, a prevailing Keynesian/social democratic consensus, at both the levels of analytic economics as well as economic policy. As the paper reviews, Gordon challenges the analytic findings and policy implications of these perspectives at their core. Gordon’s own basic premises and results are straightforward. He argues that, in fact, investment decisions, not saving rates, are the main driver of economic activity in capitalist economies and that operating capitalist economies at something akin to genuine full employment—i.e. in the range of 2 – 3 percent official unemployment—is a realistic goal. As such, these papers by Gordon contribute significantly toward envisioning a post-neoliberal social structure of accumulation that is committed to the egalitarian principles that were central to Gordon’s life work.
Topic:
Political Economy, Neoliberalism, Investment, Macroeconomics, Unemployment, Saving, and David Gordon
Political Geography:
Global Focus

273. Stranded Fossil-Fuel Assets Translate into Major Losses for Investors in Advanced Economies

Author:
Gregor Semieniuk, Philip B. Holden, Jean-Francois Mercure, Pablo Salas, Hector Pollitt, Katharine Jobson, Pim Vercoulen, Unnada Chewpreecha, Neil Edwards, and Jorge E Viñuales
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The distribution of ownership of transition risk associated with stranded fossil-fuel assets remains poorly understood. We compute global stranded assets of US$1.4 trillion in the upstream oil and gas sector as expectations change to be consistent with stated climate policies. We trace the equity risk ownership from these 43,439 assets through a global equity network of 1.8 million companies to their ultimate owners. Most of the market risk falls on private investors, overwhelmingly in OECD countries, including substantial exposure through pension funds. Financial markets are exposed to a US$690 billion correction, comparable to the mispricing that triggered the 2007-08 crisis. The ownership distribution also shows the large stake OECD investors have in the continued operation of fossil-fuel facilities incompatible with climate change mitigation goals.
Topic:
Climate Change, Political Economy, Economy, Investment, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Global Focus

274. National Policy Space: Reframing the Political Economy of Globalization and Its Implications for National Sovereignty and Democracy

Author:
Thomas I. Palley
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper critiques the trilemma framing of the political economy of globalization, and offers an alternative framing rooted in the construct of national policy space. Globalization causes changes in policy space that have drop-down implications for national sovereignty and democratic politics. Globalization involves choices regarding the “degree,” “type,” and “dimensions” of international economic integration. Contrary to the trilemma, the multi-faceted nature of the choices means there are no inevitable implications for sovereignty or democracy. Globalization is an intrinsically political project. To the extent it is now driving a nationalistic anti-democratic turn in politics, responsibility lies with political elites.
Topic:
Globalization, Political Economy, Sovereignty, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

275. Post-American Moments in Global Financial Governance in the New Millennium

Author:
Ilene Grabel
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
It is difficult to find much to celebrate about the current conjuncture, marked as it is by deeply destructive incoherence. The best that can be said is that we are in an interregnum. But I suggest that today’s incoherence also includes productive and even transformative moments. I argue that incoherence in global financial governance should be understood as productive in several respects. It is creating and widening alternative spaces in which some of the values, practices, tools, objectives, and goals associated with embedded liberalism can be rearticulated in a world in which there is no “order,” American-led or otherwise. The silver lining of incoherence is that it creates space for experimentation and innovation unconstrained by an overarching “ism.” Incoherence is creating exits or leakages from noxious national and global policy environments, rendering it less poisonous than it would be in the absence of ideational aperture and contestation, competing policies, institutions, networks, and poles of power. The abdication by the US of its traditional role of global coordination and discipline, as exerted under the post-war embedded liberal or the neoliberal American-led orders, is creating opportunities for more permissive and varied “reembededness” and diverse forms of economic integration. The emerging regime reflects neither your grandmother’s American-led order 1.0 or 2.0. In this morbid post-American interregnum there is no singular “ism” or “alternative order,” a fact that I do not mourn.
Topic:
Governance, Finance, Global Political Economy, and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

276. Drug Policy and City Government

Author:
Global Commission On Drug Policy
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Commission On Drug Policy
Abstract:
As cities and urban settlements grow and are home to increasing numbers of people, the problems related to drug policies are becoming more visible and dire in cities around the world. Mayors and municipal councilors, the closest policymakers to their constituencies, increasingly have to respond to the presence of the illegal drug market and to the negative outcomes of national repressive drug policies. While they are not mandated with drug control policies, cities have been able to provide the most innovative and protective drug policies, policies that have inspired the adoption by the national institutions of policies such as harm reduction, effective prevention and peaceful law-enforcement. The members of the Global Commission on Drug Policy, many having been mayors and municipal councilors, provide their analysis and recommendations on drug policy at the municipal level, and how pragmatic reforms on the ground can effectively address a top-down policy such as drug control.
Topic:
Law Enforcement, Reform, Public Policy, Drugs, Cities, and Harm Reduction
Political Geography:
Global Focus

277. Fiscal Policy as Credit Policy: Reassessing the Fiscal Spending vs. Private Debt Trade-Off

Author:
Etienne Lepers
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
This paper revisits the dominant narrative that explains the substantial household credit boom as a substitute to fiscal redistribution, i.e. the “substitution” hypothesis, according to which fiscally-constrained governments substituted public safety nets by private credit. I argue instead that the credit and welfare state constituencies may not necessarily be the same and that far from fiscally constrained, governments have been actively using “fiscal policy as credit policy”. I provide two sets of empirical evidence for such account: First, I find a positive within-country relationship between household debt and fiscal spending. Second, compiling a unique dataset of 550 fiscal subsidies adjustments in 50 countries since 1980, I show that fiscal and tax subsidies have been instrumental in driving household credit. These dynamics have distributional and financial stability implications as such tax subsidies typically favour higher income households and household debt booms have proven more dangerous than corporate ones.
Topic:
Debt, Financial Crisis, Welfare, Financialisation, Subsidies, Household, and Public Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

278. Individual Accountability in International Economic Policymaking after the Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Stefano Pagliari and Iosif Kovras
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the design of accountability mechanisms has taken on renewed importance in academic and policy debates. Calls for holding individuals whose actions and omissions contributed to the meltdown accountable have gained traction in a number of countries after the crisis. Yet, individual accountability norms are seemingly absent from the international economic agenda in response to crisis. In this paper we address this puzzle by exploring the evolution of two major international organisations, the IMF and the FSB, in bringing accountability following financial crises. Our analysis reveals how these institutions have increasingly incorporated in their toolkit policy recommendations related to the unethical or illegal conduct by government officials of individuals in the financial industry, but these tools were geared almost exclusively towards forward-looking policies designed to deter the reoccurrence of illegal or unethical behavior rather than punishing or scrutinizing past wrongdoing. We argue that the extent to which individual accountability norms permeate the international economic agenda is mediated by the institutional characteristics of the organizations that comprise the international financial regime.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Governance, Culture, Accountability, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

279. Financialisation Reinforced: The Enduring Legacy of the Covid Pandemic

Author:
Photis Lysandrou and Taimaz Ranjbaran
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of the covid pandemic on the financialisation process, here viewed as the growing domination of the world’s financial securities markets over the world’s material output base. Two major arguments are advanced. The first is that the pandemic has reinforced the functionality of financial market scale, which is that its continuing growth signifies nothing other than that governments and corporations on the one hand and pension funds and other asset managers on the other are colonising the future to cope with the rising financial pressures of the present. The second argument is that the pandemic has also accentuated one of the more notable dysfunctional aspects of the continuing growth of financial market scale, which is the reinforcement of a core-periphery divide between the advanced and emerging market economies that occupy the global financial system. The paper concludes with some policy implications of the analysis that includes the call for a global wealth tax.
Topic:
Economics, COVID-19, Securities, and Financialisation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

280. Development Banking in the Global Economy: State of Play and Future Direction

Author:
Ryan Lasnick
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
This report analyses the size, scale and persistence of national development banks and offers ten clear observations and conclusions of the role of NDBs for the achievement of sustainable development globally. The Executive Summary can be found here. This report analyzes NDBs top down and bottom up. Top down, it includes the most recent data on the number of NDBs along with their total assets and annual disbursements. Bottom up, we conduct systematic case studies of various development bank ecosystems, including those of India, Brazil, China, South Africa, Germany and the US, to begin analyzing their role in the national development bank economy.
Topic:
Development, Sustainability, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

281. Transparency for Whom? Grounding Land Investment Transparency in the Needs of Local Actors

Author:
Sam Szoke-Burke
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Transparency is often seen as a means of improving governance and accountability of investment, but its potential to do so is hindered by vague definitions and failures to focus on the needs of key local actors. In a new report focusing on agribusiness, forestry, and renewable energy projects (“land investments”), CCSI grounds transparency in the needs of project-affected communities and other local actors. Transparency efforts that seek to inform and empower communities can also help governments, companies, and other actors to more effectively manage operational risk linked to social conflict.
Topic:
Agriculture, Governance, Transparency, Sustainability, and Community
Political Geography:
Global Focus

282. United States Counterterrorism Operations 2018–2020

Author:
Stephanie Savell, Rachel McMahon, Emily Rockwell, and Yueshan Li
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
The map illustrates countries in which the U.S. government conducted operations it explicitly described as counterterrorism, in an outgrowth of President George W. Bush's “Global War on Terror.” These operations include air and drone strikes, on-the-ground combat, so-called “Section 127e” programs in which U.S. special operations forces plan and control partner force missions, military exercises in preparation for or as part of counterterrorism missions, and operations to train and assist foreign forces. (The map does not comprehensively cover the full scope of U.S. post-9/11 warfare, as it does not document, for instance, U.S. military bases used for counterterror operations, arms sales to foreign governments, or all deployments of U.S. special operations forces.) Despite the Pentagon’s assertion that the U.S. is shifting its strategic emphasis away from counterterrorism and towards great power competition with Russia and China, examining U.S. military activity on a country-by-country basis shows that there is yet to be a corresponding drawdown of the counterterror apparatus. If anything, the map demonstrates that counterterrorism operations have become more widespread in recent years.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

283. Risk Shocks and Divergence between the Euro Area and the US in the aftermath of the Great Recession

Author:
Thomas Brand and Fabien Tripier
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
Highly synchronized during the Great Recession of 2008-2009, the Euro area and the US have diverged in the period that followed. To explain this divergence, we provide a structural interpretation of these episodes through the estimation for both economies of a business cycle model with financial frictions and risk shocks, measured as the volatility of idiosyncratic uncertainty in the financial sector. Our results show that risk shocks have stimulated US growth in the aftermath of the Great Recession and have been the main driver of the double-dip recession in the Euro area. They play a positive role in the Euro area only after 2015. Risk shocks therefore seem well suited to account for the consequences of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the subsequent positive effects of unconventional monetary policies, notably the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme (APP).
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, Global Recession, Finance, Europe Union, Economic Growth, and Risk
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Global Focus

284. Information in the First Globalization: News Agencies and Trade

Author:
Pierre Cotterlaz and Etienne Fize
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper documents the effect of information frictions on trade using a historical large-scale improvement in the transmission of news: the emergence of global news agencies. The information available to potential traders became more abundant, was delivered faster and at a cheaper price between countries covered by a news agency. Exploiting differences in the timing of telegraph openings and news agency coverage across pairs of countries, we are able to disentangle the pure effect of information from the effect of a reduction in communication costs. Panel gravity estimates reveal that bilateral trade increased by 30\% more for pairs of countries covered by a news agency and connected by a telegraph than for pairs of countries simply connected by a telegraph.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Partnerships, Media, News Analysis, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

285. World Interest Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustments in Developing Commodity Producing Countries

Author:
Vincent Bodart, François Courtoy, and Erica Perego
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
With commodities becoming international financial securities, commodity prices are affected by the international financial cycle. With this evidence in mind, this paper reconsiders the macroeconomic adjustment of developing commodity-exporting countries to changes in world interest rates. We proceed by building a model of a small open economy that produces a non-tradable good and a storable tradable commodity. The difference with standard models of small open economies lies in the endogenous response of commodity prices which -due to commodity storage- adjust to variations in international interest rates. We find that the endogenous response of commodity prices amplifies the reaction of commodity exporting countries to international monetary shocks. This suggests that commodity exporting countries are more vulnerable to unfavourable international monetary disturbances than other small open economies. In particular, because of the existence of the commodity price channel, even those small open commodity-exporting economies that are disconnected from international financial markets can be affected by the international financial cycle.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Monetary Policy, Finance, Commodities, Interest Rates, Exports, and Price
Political Geography:
Global Focus

286. Central Bank Digital Currency and Governance: Fit for Purpose?

Author:
Pierre Siklos
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
As digital forms of payment become increasingly popular, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, cash is no longer king. Central banks are turning their attention toward central bank digital currency (CBDC) to replace coins and bills and to provide other types of services through digital technology. CBDC can also facilitate cross-border transactions through the use of internationally accepted currencies such as the euro and the US dollar. This paper explores the many tailwinds and headwinds that will affect the implementation of a CBDC.
Topic:
Governance, Digital Economy, Banks, and Digital Currency
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

287. Quantifying Trade Secret Theft: Policy Implications

Author:
Dan Ciuriak and Maria Ptashkina
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Trade secret theft is estimated to cost hundreds of billions of dollars annually. As a result, governments worldwide are developing legislation to mitigate these losses. This paper looks at the growing importance of trade secrets globally, corporations’ responsibilities to protect their trade secrets and how trade secret theft occurs (for example, through cybertheft or personnel movement between companies). The authors argue that protecting intellectual property rights must not come at the expense of the innovation-intensive economy.
Topic:
Security, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Trade, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

288. What Is So Foreign About Foreign Influence Operations?

Author:
Hedvig Ördén and James Pamment
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Influence operations are increasingly seen as a threat to democratic societies because they can corrupt the integrity of political deliberation. As individuals engage in debate on social media, political deliberation becomes vulnerable to potentially destructive forms of interference. Many debates on what to do about influence operations emphasize that these operations constitute what is deemed to be a foreign threat. But does the notion of foreignness, viewed in isolation, constitute a helpful lens for distinguishing between legitimate and illegitimate influence operations? Ultimately, the lens of foreignness is only helpful when applied to a narrow set of cases. One sensible way of reviewing when the concept of foreignness can be useful in distinguishing between legitimate and illegitimate influence operations is to consider three separate conceptions of how to determine what counts as foreign: foreign states, foreign citizens, and foreign interests. In the first case, influence operations are seen as threatening acts directed at a targeted state by foreign states, using behaviors seen as analogous to acts of war. In the second instance, influence operations are considered threatening acts conducted by foreign citizens that undermine domestic democratic systems in a targeted state. In cases of the third sort, influence operations are viewed as acts aimed at advancing foreign interests through the illegitimate employment of soft power. Given these various models, the notion of foreignness constitutes a useful lens for discussions of influence operations in cases when there is overwhelming evidence of state-based, hybrid, and irregular warfare. An argument can also be made for employing the distinction in relation to the protection of democratic institutions, such as elections. However, when influence operations are regarded as a more generalized threat to political deliberation, foreignness is not a helpful category for determining the legitimacy or illegitimacy of such campaigns. In such cases, rather than focusing on the (domestic or foreign) identity of the malicious actors themselves, it is more fruitful to conceive of illegitimacy in terms of specific manipulative communication techniques. Suitable countermeasures could include, for instance, creating greater transparency surrounding, or even restricting, the use of artificial techniques to inflate the level of perceived engagement a piece of online content generates.
Topic:
Democracy, Soft Power, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Global Focus

289. How Middle-Power Democracies Can Help Renovate Global Democracy Support

Author:
Rachel Kleinfeld, Thomas Carothers, Steven Feldstein, and Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Middle-power democracies—countries which regardless of their geopolitical weight have made democracy support a sustained component of their foreign policy—will be crucial to reimagining democracy support strategies and policies to better meet the moment. Some of these states have crafted new initiatives and wielded diplomatic tools to deepen their impact in recent years. However, these states have on the whole punched below their collective weight. This paper suggests that middle-power democracies can maximize their impact on global democracy in the following ways: Enhancing solidarity: when a country acts courageously in defense of democracy, it needs to know that others will stand alongside it. Sharpening their focus: middle-power democracies should target policy areas aligned with democratic values on issues both at the top of the geopolitical agenda and at the top-of-mind for citizens around the world—for example, economic recovery, injustice and discrimination, corruption, digital repression, and climate change. Improving diplomatic cooperation: pursuing flexible and focused multilateral partnerships allows for collaboration on key policy interests and amplifies middle-power actions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Democracy, Solidarity, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

290. Civil War Violence and Refugee Outflows

Author:
Andrew Shaver
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Conflict forces millions of individuals from their homes each year. Using a simple structural model and new refugee data, we produce the first set of estimates relating outflows to annual conflict magnitudes. The theory underlying the structural model implies that standard panel data approaches will underestimate the impact of conflict violence, by differencing out the effect of prior and expected levels of violence on the decisions to flee. We estimate that whereas a shock that doubles conflict deaths in one year increases outflows in that year by 40% on average, doubling conflict deaths in all years increases annual outflows by 100%. We further estimate an average of 30 refugees per conflict death (median 18), with higher rates for conflicts closer to an OECD country and possibly for ethnic wars and in lower income countries. The analysis illustrates a broader methodological point: It can be hazardous to try to identify a causal effect using shocks to a presumed causal factor if the outcome variable is the result of decisions based not only on shocks but also on levels.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil War, Refugee Issues, Refugees, Refugee Crisis, Data, Armed Conflict, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

291. Handbook on the Prevention and Resolution of Self-Determination Conflicts

Author:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
The Handbook on the Prevention and Resolution of Self-Determination Conflicts is the latest product of a long and fruitful collaboration between the Mission of Liechtenstein to the United Nations, New York, and the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University to assess the relationship of self-determination to conflict. The Handbook includes four case studies: Aceh, Bougainville, Mindanao, and Northern Ireland, in addition to setting out guidelines specifically aimed at those working to prevent and resolve self-determination conflicts. The handbook was conceived chiefly as the result of two meetings on self-determination held jointly by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination and the Liechtenstein Mission to the UN: “Models of Self-Governance as Tools to Promote Peace and Stability in Europe,” held in March 2016, in Triesenberg, Liechtenstein, and “Self-Determination in Conflict Prevention and Resolution,” held in December 2018, in Princeton, New Jersey, U.S.A. In these meetings, participants discussed the relationship between self-determination and conflict, as well as ways that self-determination conflicts may be prevented and resolved. These discussions drew on the tensions and links between self-determination, minority rights, autonomy and self-governance, and mediation, all of which are key elements of the handbook.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Governance, Self Determination, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

292. Fiscal and exchange rate policies drive trade imbalances: New estimates

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon and Madi Sarsenbayev
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
A 2017 PIIE analysis found that fiscal balances and foreign exchange intervention—more broadly, government purchases of foreign assets to influence exchange rates—are the most important factors behind differences in current account balances across countries and over time. The current account is the broadest measure of a country's balance of trade. It records all income received from foreigners and payments made to foreigners. It is dominated by trade in goods and services but also includes income receipts on domestically owned factors of production (capital and labor) that are employed abroad and payments to foreign-owned factors of production at home. A country’s fiscal surplus and official purchases of foreign assets tend to increase its current account balance. Net official purchases by other countries tend to reduce current account balances in the home country, especially when it issues a reserve currency. This paper updates the earlier analysis with three more years (2016–18) and roughly 40 percent more observations. New analysis of net international investment positions (which largely reflect cumulated current account balances) finds even stronger evidence for the dominant role of official reserve positions in explaining differences in current account balances across countries. An increase in a country’s official reserve position causes essentially a dollar-for-dollar increase in its net international investment position.
Topic:
Fiscal Policy, Currency, Trade Policy, and Trade Deficit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

293. SDG Zero? A People-Centered Approach to Universal Connectivity

Author:
Jimena Leiva Roesch
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
As the COVID-19 pandemic has increased reliance on digital technologies, it has highlighted the growing digital divide between and within societies. Universal access to the digital world has become more urgent than ever, and failure to achieve it could undermine progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals. While closing the digital divide and increasing connectivity are among the UN secretary-general’s priorities for 2021, this goal remains elusive and faces many obstacles. One challenge is the lack of a shared understanding of what universal connectivity means. It is not just a technical challenge; it also requires addressing questions related to adoption, usage, accessibility, and the relevance and veracity of content. Another challenge is that funding for digital connectivity is uncoordinated and not easily accessible by those who need it most. There is also a lack of concerted leadership and coherent governance structures at all levels. Moreover, getting the framing right is key. National, global, and local leaders need to establish clear and compelling links between universal connectivity and the 2030 Agenda with its message to “leave no one behind.” Addressing these challenges requires a human-centered, human rights–based approach. Connectivity comes with risks, including privacy issues, misinformation and hate speech, and online violence and sexual harassment. While discussions on universal connectivity have gained momentum, these human rights considerations often remain an afterthought. Governments, businesses, and civil society need to understand connectivity as a right whose protection is their shared responsibility. Ultimately, bridging the digital divide requires a stronger and more inclusive multilateral system. Geopolitics, a lack of shared understanding, knowledge gaps, and suspicion between actors continue to hold back digital cooperation at the UN. Governments need to meaningfully include private sector and civil society actors in formal decision-making processes. In parallel, the UN should create informal platforms to build trust among stakeholders. To achieve meaningful and sustainable progress toward digital inclusion, all actors need to commit to working through a multi-stakeholder platform.
Topic:
Human Rights, Science and Technology, Sustainable Development Goals, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

294. GARCH Analyses of Risk and Uncertainty in the Theories of the Interest Rate of Keynes and Kalecki

Author:
Hubert Gabrisch
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This study attempts to identify uncertainty in the long-term rate of interest based on the controversial interest rate theories of Keynes and Kalecki. While Keynes stated that the future of the rate of interest is uncertain because it is numerically incalculable, Kalecki was convinced that it could be predicted. The theories are empirically tested using a reduced-form GARCH-in-mean model assigned to six globally leading financial markets. The obtained results support Keynes’s theory – the long-term rate of interest is a nonergodic financial phenomenon. Analyses of the relation between the interest rate and macroeconomic variables without interest uncertainty are thus seriously incomplete.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Economic Theory, Interest Rates, Macroeconomics, Keynes, Models, and Michał Kalecki
Political Geography:
Global Focus

295. Firm Profits and Government Activity: An Empirical Investigation

Author:
Petar Jolakoski, Branimir Jovanovic, Joana Madjoska, Viktor Stojkoski, and Dragan Tevdovski
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
If firm profits rise to a level far above than what would have been earned in a competitive economy, this might give the firms market power, which might in turn influence the activity of the government. In this paper, we perform a detailed empirical study on the potential effects of firm profits and markups on government size and effectiveness. Using data on 30 European countries for a period of 17 years and an instrumental variables approach, we find that there exists a robust relationship between firm gains and the activity of the state, in the sense that higher firm profits reduce government size and effectiveness. Even in a group of developed countries, such as the European countries, firm power may affect state activity.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and Profit
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

296. Breaking Through the Digital Ceiling: ICT Skills and Labour Market Opportunities

Author:
David Pichler and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the impact of ICT-skills on individuals’ labour market mobility patterns, in particular job-to-job, employment- to-unemployment and unemployment-to-employment transitions. Based on the OECD’s Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) and longitudinal EU-SILC data, individuals’ labour market outcomes are examined over the period 2011-2017 in nine EU countries and the UK. Our results indicate that individuals with strong ICT skills have better opportunities and are therefore not only more likely to change jobs more frequently but are also less likely to face unemployment. Furthermore, ICT skills support unemployment exit towards medium and high digital occupations. A certain minimum level of ICT skills also supports unemployment exit towards low digital occupations but seems to make employment in such occupations less likely once this threshold is crossed. Overall, ICT skills have less predictive power for transition towards medium digital occupations. Thus, while ICT skills appear to improve labour market opportunities significantly, it seems that there are still jobs that require relatively few ICT skills.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Labor Market, Information Technology, and Skilled Labor
Political Geography:
Global Focus

297. Exploring ‘Non-Tariff Measures Black Box’: Whose Regulative NTMs on Which Products Improve the Imported Quality?

Author:
Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Regulative non-tariff measures (NTMs), such as technical barriers to trade (TBTs) and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures, have frequently been imposed to regulate the quality of imported goods when the market fails to address some issues of concern regarding harmful products with low standards. The impact of NTMs on trade values and trade volumes has been extensively modelled and analysed in the literature, while their quality impact has usually been studied using the unit values of imports. In this paper a monopolistic competition framework is presented, in which firms choose both the quality and the price of their exports subject to the compliance costs of NTMs behind the border and a fixed cost of technological change. Using the solutions of this model including NTMs, the quality of products at the six-digit level of the harmonised system (HS) traded globally and bilaterally during the period 1996–2017 is estimated. Using these estimates, the impacts of TBTs and SPS measures on trade values, volume, unit value and quality are estimated. On average and across all global bilateral trade, TBTs restrict imports while improving quality significantly. SPS measures stimulate trade and improve the average imported quality. Then, by estimating the importer-specific impact of NTMs on traded value, quantity, unit value, quality, and quality-adjusted price for each product, the ‘NTM Black Box’ is opened and analysed. This provides evidence of whether the quality of traded goods to an importing country has been upgraded despite the trade restrictiveness of NTMs.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Non-Tariff Measures
Political Geography:
Global Focus

298. Gender Gaps in Employment, Wages, and Work Hours: Assessment of COVID-19 Implications

Author:
Maryna Tverdostup
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has highly asymmetric effects on labour market outcomes of men and women. In this paper, we empirically investigate the dynamics and drivers of gender gaps in employment rates, wages and workhours during the pandemic. Relying on Estonian Labour Force Survey data, we document that the pandemic has, if anything, reduced gender inequality in all three domains. Our results suggest that, while the evolution of inequalities mirrored the infection rate development – rising as infections mounted and declining as the first wave flattened – overall, the pandemic did not exacerbate gender gaps in 2020. The cyclical increases in gender disparities were largely driven by parenthood, as child-rearing women experienced a major decline in their employment rate and workhours, as well as gender segregation in the most affected industries. The higher propensity to work from home and better educational attainments of women deterred gender wage gap expansion, as wage returns to telework and education rose during the pandemic. Our results suggest no systematic expansion of gender gaps, but rather short-term fluctuations. However, labour market penalties for women with young children and women employed in those industries most affected by COVID-19 may last longer than the pandemic, threatening to widen gender inequality in the long run.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Employment, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

299. Stability of collusion and quality differentiation: a Nash bargaining approach

Author:
Thanos Athanasopoulos, Burak Dindaroglu, and Georgios Petropoulos
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
How do incentives to collude depend on how asymmetric firms are? For low levels of differentiation, an increase in quality difference makes collusion less stable. The opposite holds for high levels of differentiation.
Topic:
Political stability, Business, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

300. Platform mergers and antitrust

Author:
Geoffrey Parker, Georgios Petropoulos, and Marshall Van Alstyne
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Platform ecosystems rely on economies of scale, data-driven economies of scope, high quality algorithmic systems, and strong network effects that frequently promote winner-takes-most markets. Some platform firms have grown rapidly and their merger and acquisition strategies have been very important factors in their growth. Big platforms’ market dominance has generated competition concerns that are difficult to assess with current merger policy tools. We examine the acquisition strategies of the five major US firms—Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple and Microsoft—since their inception. We discuss the main merger and acquisition theories of harm that can restrict market competition and reduce consumer welfare. To address competition concerns about acquisitions in big platform ecosystems we develop a four step proposal that incorporates: (1) a new ex-ante regulatory framework, (2) an update of the conditions under which the notification of mergers should be compulsory and the burden of proof should be reversed, (3) differential regulatory priorities in investigating horizontal versus vertical acquisitions, and (4) an update of competition enforcement tools to increase visibility into market data and trends.
Topic:
Markets, Digital Economy, Internet, Economy, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America