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Begin New Search Topic Disarmament Political Geography Global Focus Content Type Working Paper

1. Revisiting ‘Minimal Nuclear Deterrence’: Laying the Ground for Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament

Author:
Tytti Erästö
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The prospects for nuclear arms control appear dim following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Instead of continued reliance on nuclear deterrence, the resulting new awareness of nuclear risks should inform bold nuclear disarmament measures in the long term. Drawing on previous debates on ‘minimal nuclear deterrence’, this paper argues that nuclear deterrence is possible at low numbers, and hence reliance on nuclear deterrence is not an obstacle to significant progress in nuclear disarmament. In particular, there is scope for reducing the vast Russian and United States nuclear arsenals, which risk planetary-scale destruction and stand in the way of multilateral nuclear disarmament. At the same time, recent military-technological evolution has raised the bar for minimal nuclear deterrence by questioning the survivability of nuclear forces. In addition to making recommendations on how to address such strategic challenges, the paper addresses some conceptual dilemmas traditionally associated with minimal nuclear deterrence.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Disarmament, Multilateralism, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2020

Author:
Nan Tian, Alexandra Marksteiner, and Diego Lopes da Silva
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
World military expenditure in 2020 is estimated to have been $1981 billion, the highest level since 1988—the earliest year for which SIPRI has a consistent estimate for total global military spending. World military expenditure in 2020 was 2.6 per cent higher in real terms than in 2019 and 9.3 per cent higher than in 2011. The global military burden—world military expenditure as a share of global gross domestic product—rose by 0.2 percentage points in 2020, to 2.4 per cent. This increase was largely due to the fact that most countries in the world experienced severe economic downturns in 2020 related to the Covid-19 pandemic, while military expenditure continued to rise overall. This Fact Sheet highlights the regional and national military expenditure data for 2020 and trends over the decade 2011–20. The data is from the updated open-access SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, which provides military spending data by country for the years 1949–2020.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Military Spending, and Disarmament
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2020

Author:
Pieter D. Wezeman, Alexandra Kuimova, and Siemon T. Wezeman
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The volume of international transfers of major arms in 2016–20 was 0.5 per cent lower than in 2011–15 and 12 per cent higher than in 2006–10. The five largest arms exporters in 2016–20 were the United States, Russia, France, Germany and China. The five largest arms importers were Saudi Arabia, India, Egypt, Australia and China. Between 2011–15 and 2016–20 there were increases in arms transfers to the Middle East and to Europe, while there were decreases in the transfers to Africa, the Americas, and Asia and Oceania. From 15 March 2021 SIPRI’s open-access Arms Transfers Database includes updated data on transfers of major arms for 1950–2020, which replaces all previous data on arms transfers published by SIPRI. Based on the new data, this Fact Sheet presents global trends in arms exports and arms imports, and highlights selected issues related to transfers of major arms.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Military Spending, Disarmament, and Exports
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Emerging Suppliers in the Global Arms Trade

Author:
Diego Lopes da Silva, Alexandra Kuimova, Pieter D. Wezeman, and Lucie béraud-Sudreau
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Even though the volumes of arms exported by emerging suppliers are lower than those of the established exporters, they can nonetheless have a direct impact on international and regional security. The diversification in global arms transfers caused by the emergence of new suppliers therefore deserves scrutiny. Brazil, South Korea, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are examples of emerging suppliers. Despite a continuous reliance on foreign technologies, they have managed to establish themselves in several niche categories of armaments or, in the case of South Korea, to widen the types of arms that they export. Exports of these emerging suppliers tend to go primarily to Africa, Asia and the Middle East, where most active armed conflicts are located, and also to Latin America. However, the drivers of the four countries’ arms exports differ: some have supplied with the intent to gain political influence, while others have primarily focused on the economic benefits.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Politics, Arms Trade, Disarmament, and Supply
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. The NPT turns 50: Will it get to 60?

Author:
Henry Sokolski
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
In the next decade, it is all too likely that the past success of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in preventing the further spread of nuclear weapons among the world’s nations will be reversed. Three trends make more proliferation likely. First is the decay of nuclear taboos. Second, and arguably worse, is renewed vertical proliferation—the increase in size and sophistication of nuclear arsenals by states that already have them. Third, the technical information to fuel nuclear breakouts and ramp-ups is more available now than in the past. These trends toward increased proliferation are not yet facts. The author describes three steps the international community could take to save the NPT: making further withdrawals from the NPT unattractive; clamping down on the uneconomical stockpiling and civilian use of nuclear weapons materials (plutonium and highly enriched uranium); and giving real meaning to efforts to limit the threats that existing nuclear weapons pose.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Nuclear Power, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Russia, North Korea, Global Focus, and United States of America

6. World table: Monitoring arms control and disarmament agreements 2018

Author:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
GCSP's Senior Programme Advisor and Arms Proliferation Cluster Leader, Marc Finaud, together with the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU), Parliamentarians for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament and the University of London (SOAS), are working on a joint project that aims to provide parliamentarians from around the world with documents and material about arms control and disarmament agreements to help them monitor the actions of their governments.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, Disarmament, and Data
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. The Challenge of Emerging Technologies to Non-proliferation Efforts: Controlling Additive Manufacturing and Intangible Transfers of Technology

Author:
Kolja Brockmann and Robert E. Kelley
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Additive manufacturing (AM) machines are multipurpose manufacturing instruments that rely on the transfer of build-information in a digital form. AM is a rapidly developing technology with a growing range of applications, especially in the aerospace and defence industry. It is also generating concerns about its potential to create ways of weakening or circumventing dual-use and arms export controls. This SIPRI Paper examines (a) the state of the art in AM; (b) its ability to produce military equipment and dual-use items; (c) the application of export controls to AM and their implementation at the national level; and (d) the challenges that implementation and compliance present for governments, companies and research institutes. The conclusions summarize potential options and considerations when expanding controls on AM. This is one of two research papers that address the closely related issues of controlling transfers of software and technology and applying exports controls to AM. Taken together, the papers examine some of the most challenging issues that governments, companies and research institutes in the European Union (EU) and the wider world are facing when they seek to effectively implement dual-use and arms export controls. The papers also address a range of topics that are under active discussion within the multilateral export control regimes and in connection with the recast of the EU Dual-use Regulation. For the second paper, 'The Challenge of Software and Technology Transfers to Non-proliferation Efforts: Implementing and Complying with Export Controls', see here. Funding for the concept paper was provided by the US Department of State’s Export Control and Related Border Security (EXBS) Program.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Disarmament, and Exports
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus