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  • Author: Vangelis ARVANITIS
  • Publication Date: 03-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
  • Abstract: The monetary authority, which in the case of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is the European Central Bank (ECB), has among other things, the obligation to determine the monetary policy, aiming to influence basic parameters of the economy like the level of prices. In this paper the author tries to identify the impact of the monetary policy of the ECB on credit provision of European economies through the mortgage credit channel, including during the period of the crisis. More specifically, we employ data for the loans of commercial banks to households for housing purposes after a contractionary monetary policy by the monetary authority (increase of the main interest rate). Given that the mortgage channel has not been adequately studied during the crisis period for EU member states, this paper will contribute towards covering this gap in the literature.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Antonia-Maria SARANTAKI
  • Publication Date: 02-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
  • Abstract: A new working paper by ELIAMEP explores the operational cooperation between Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard agency, and NATO. Since 2016, these two disparate actors have started to cooperate in the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea after NATO’s involvement in countering irregular migration. The working paper, based on data collected through semi-structured interviews with Frontex and NATO staff as well as document review and analysis, seeks to analyse the cooperation of these two institutions by assessing their mandate, the reasons for their establishment, their operations and their organisational enhancements. It focuses on their role in addressing a non-traditional security challenge, namely irregular migration, which provided the basis for joining efforts and initiating their operational cooperation. The latter raises serious concerns about the future of both institutions and the adopted EU strategy to cope with the issue of migration. All these define a new EU-NATO security partnership that has the potential to reshape the content of the transatlantic cooperation.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Nikolaos PAOUNIS
  • Publication Date: 01-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
  • Abstract: Following the thematic publications on the evolution of the war, after the so-called “Revolution in Military Affairs”, a new policy paper published by ELIAMEP analyses the Information Centric War and Cyber-security. Cyberattack is a new form of warfare, while its development is parallel to that of technological progress and its subsequent sociopolitical effects on humankind. Furthermore, cyberattacks raise once again issues of Ethics and whether provisions of international law should be applied. Estonia is the first victim of a massive cyberattacks, while, even though Turkey considers the issue at hand important, it makes use of the abovementioned form of warfare.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Thanos Dokos
  • Publication Date: 01-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
  • Abstract: ELIAMEP published a new policy paper by defence analyst Manos Iliadis and Director General of ELIAMEP Dr. Thanos Dokos on “Military Service and Defence”.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Charles Harry, Nancy Gallagher
  • Publication Date: 03-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
  • Abstract: Faced with rapidly growing cyber threats, organizational leaders, and government officials cannot reliably secure all data and digital devices for which they are responsible. The best they can do is conduct strategic risk management. That requires a systematic way to categorize potential attacks and estimate consequences in order to set priorities, allocate resources, and mitigate losses. The 2018 U.S. National Cyber Strategy holds government officials accountable for doing cyber risk management based on the National Institute of Standards and Technology’s (NIST) Cybersecurity Framework and recommendations from not-for-profit organizations such as the Center for Internet Security (CIS) and ISACA. Yet, none of these policy documents and best practice guides actually provide the necessary analytical tools. As a result, public agencies, private companies, and non-profit groups that try to do risk assessment often feel overwhelmed rather than empowered to make strategic cybersecurity decisions. The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) has developed an analytical framework that provides four essential building blocks needed to satisfy the principles in the NIST Standard Framework and other best practice guides: 1. A standardized system for classifying cyber threats and events by their effects. 2. Tools to associate organizational functions with IT topologies. 3. Algorithms to assess the severity of disruptive and exploitative cyber events. 4. A method to understand the integrated nature of risk across different parts of a simple organization, major divisions of a complex organization, or interconnected organizations in a complex system. These building blocks can be combined in different ways to answer critical questions, such as: • What is the range of cyber risks to different types of organizations? • Which threats pose the greatest risk to a specific department or organization? • How could an attack on one part of an IT network affect other organizational functions? • What is the accumulated risk across a critical infrastructure sector or geography? Using a comprehensive, consistent, and repeatable method to categorize and measure risk can enhance communication and decision-making among executives who make strategic decisions for organizations and their IT staff with day-to-day responsibility for cybersecurity. It can facilitate cooperation between public officials and private industry who share responsibility for different components of national critical infrastructure. It can inform media coverage and public debate about important policy questions, such as which decisions about cybersecurity should be purely private decisions, whether government should incentivize or mandate certain cybersecurity choices, and when a cyber attack warrants some type of military response.
  • Topic: Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Cybersecurity, Media
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Poorti Sapatnekar
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
  • Abstract: While nation-states remain primary protagonists in global governance processes, it is increasingly recognized that non-state actors (NSAs) are key players in areas ranging from human rights and civil conflict to infectious disease and nuclear non-proliferation. The area of climate change is an illustrative example. NSAs have been active participants in the margins of the Conference of Parties (COP), the annual meeting of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), since its inception in 1995 by holding side-events and protests, raising awareness, lobbying, etc. NSAs have also contributed to the development of a “regime complex” in climate governance at the same time. Yet, the determinants and effects of that participation are not well understood. The COP offers a unique opportunity to examine one piece of this puzzle; namely, the factors that enable and motivate NSAs to participate in the design and implementation of international agreements. We use an original dataset of NSA participants at the COP from 1995 to 2016, to examine whether NSAs are well positioned to help states overcome key barriers to cooperation. As NSAs ramp up their participation in climate governance and elsewhere, this study offers insight into their motivations and potential impact on governance outcomes.
  • Topic: Climate Change, United Nations, Non State Actors, Governance
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Kristijan Kotarski
  • Publication Date: 01-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
  • Abstract: On December 10th 2018 the body of international soft law was enriched with the Global compact for safe, orderly and regular migration (from here on - UN migration pact) that was adopted by 164 out of 193 UN member states during their meeting in Marrakesh, Morocco. On December 19th the UN General Assembly officially endorsed the document with 152 member states voting in favor, five voting against, and twelve abstaining. It’s unknown what changed the mind of twelve countries which have adopted the pact in Marrakech, but failed to endorse it in New York. Even though the UN migration pact stipulates that it is merely a “cooperative framework” it has nonetheless deepened the political divide on the migration controversy among states as well as within them. The polemic that has evolved around the document in recent months centered on two contentious issues: 1. its quasilegality and 2. the potential outcomes of its 23 objectives. This paper will only briefly touch upon the issue of the quasilegality of international soft law and concentrate on the content analysis of the pact itself.
  • Topic: International Law, Migration, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Sangkyom Kim, Soon Chan Park
  • Publication Date: 10-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
  • Abstract: Earlier works derive empirical implications that institutional quality is very influential as a source of comparative advantage in industries requiring relationship-specific investment from the supplier. However, as earlier studies focus on investigating the impact of institution on the efficiency of the producer, only the exporter’s institution is considered. In contrast, we attempt to identify the impacts of the quality of institution, of both exporters and importers, on trade costs, that are different across country-pairs. To check the problem of measuring trade costs, we use two alternative measures of trade costs, i.e. CIF/FOB ratio and the relative measure of trade costs proposed by Novy (2013). Using the Eora global supply chain database covering 187 countries for 11 primary and manufacturing industries and four years, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, we calculate a CIF/FOB ratio and the relative trade costs suggested by Novy (2013) which are used as a proxy variable for trade costs. At the country level, we find that the institutional quality of exporter and importer is negatively associated with trade costs and trade costs increase as disparity between two countries’ institutional quality increases. At the country-industry level, we find that a country-pair with better legal institution has lower trade costs in industries for which a hold-up problem is important. This result is robust to the alternative measure of trade costs suggested by Novy (2013). However, an analysis on the impact of institutional differences on trade costs yields mixed results. Therefore we do not conclude that the similarity of institutional quality between two countries is associated with lower bilateral trade costs.
  • Topic: Economic Policy, Trade, Industry
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Nakgyoon Choi
  • Publication Date: 07-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
  • Abstract: Recently, international trade has become regional rather than global. This paper aims to test if deeper regional integration contributes to the organization of global value chains along the regional clusters including Asia, Europe, and America. We estimate the impacts of deep regional integrations on global value chains by region, investigating the implications of mega FTAs for global value chains by scenario. We use not only data on trade in value added but also global value chains participation indexes which reflect the global value chains better than domestic value added in goods and services exports. The estimation results reveal that a deep regional trade agreement has heterogeneous effects on global value chains depending on the regional clusters. In particular, Asia turns out to import more intermediate goods than Europe and America while RTA member countries tend to import more intermediate goods from Europe than Asia and America.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance, Regional Integration, Economic Policy, Exports
  • Political Geography: Europe, Asia, Global Focus, North America
  • Author: Tae Soo Kang, Kyunghun Kim
  • Publication Date: 02-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
  • Abstract: Capital market integration contributes to economic growth and it can be more beneficial for emerging market economies (EMEs, hereafter) at their early stages of development where the capital is relatively insufficient. An open capital market also enables investor to share the country-specific risks by holding foreign assets. However, there are also some negative side effects of capital market integration. Financial shocks originating in the center coun-try can be quickly propagated through the integrated financial market. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC, hereafter) is a good example of the contagion of the financial crisis. Volatile cross-border capital inflows and outflows nega-tively affect financial stability, which eventually lowers economic growth by causing financial crises. Despite of these negative side effects, capital market integration has been an inevitable long-term trend for many EMEs over the past few decades (Aizenman et al. 2010). There have been continuous capital flows to EMEs, which started even before GFC and this trend has been more pronounced during the U.S. zero-interest rate period (Ahmed and Zlate 2014). Though some monetary authorities in EMEs tried to moderate the procyclicality of credit flows by implementing policy instruments such as capital controls or macro-prudential policy measures after GFC (Kim and Mehrotra 2018), the common factors in the global financial market still play a crucial role in de-termining capital inflows to EMEs. The relationship between the global financial condition and its impact on capital inflows to EMEs, has been a long-debated issue. This issue concerns whether push or pull factors are the major determinant of capital flows. The push factor represents the common factor that exists in the global financial market or center countries, which influences capital inflows to peripheral countries. These factors are interest rates and GDP growth rates of advanced economies (AEs, hereafter), global risk factors such as VIX (S&P 500 Volatili-ty Index), and the commodity price index. The pull factor denotes domestic factors that attract funds from the global financial market to domestic finan-cial markets. These factors are domestic interest rates, domestic GDP growth rates, and other country-specific characteristics such as exchange rate regime, degree of the capital account openness, institutional quality, and stages of economic development. In previous literature, many scholars have found strong evidence for push factors being the major determinant of capital movement. The interest rates of mature economies and VIX are significant determinants of capital inflows to EMEs. However, there is only some evidence that higher domestic interest rates and higher domestic GDP growth rates pull capital from the center countries to individual EMEs (Koepke 2015). Related to this long-debated issue in academia, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome H. Powell recently stated, "... I will argue that, while global factors play an important role in influencing domestic financial conditions, the role of U.S. monetary policy is often exaggerated." With this statement, he also pointed out that the slowdown in capital inflows to EMEs which has been happening ever since 2011 has been mainly due to the narrowing of GDP gaps between AEs and EMEs, i.e., the recent decrease in capital in-flows to EMEs can be attributed to the decline in EMEs' GDP growth rates given the fact that the U.S. GDP growth rate has picked up. In this paper, we revisit this issue of push and pull factors of capital inflows. To this end, we consider the heterogeneity that exists in EMEs by dividing them into four subgroups. We investigate which is the main driver of capital inflows between push and pull factors across country groups. Categorizing subgroups is important for two reasons. First, EMEs are so heterogeneous that we make subgroups which share similar economic fundamentals by re-gions. Second, making subgroups across EMEs is an effective way to indi-rectly consider the regional contagion effect. With this cross-country analysis, we can figure out the differing effects of push and pull factors across country groups, and this can eventually lead to the development and implementation of appropriate policy instruments. Our empirical finding shows that the push and pull factors play a different role in determining capital inflows to AEs and EMEs. The major drivers of capital inflows to AEs are both push and pull factors, but push factors turn out to be the main determinant of capital inflows to EMEs. When EMEs are divided into four subgroups, we find sizable heterogeneity across subgroups. In Asian countries, both push and pull factors are significant, which is similar to AEs, but only U.S. interest rate plays a major role in Eastern Europe. Some pull factors are important in Latin American countries and other EMEs, but these are not robust to alternative empirical models and measures.
  • Topic: Capital Flows, Economic Policy, Push Factor, Pull Factor
  • Political Geography: Global Focus