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101. Employer power and employment in developing countries

Author:
Nancy H. Chau, Ravi Kanbur, and Vidhya Soundararajan
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The issue of employer power is underemphasized in the development literature. The default model is usually one of competitive labour markets. This assumption matters for analysis and policy prescription. There is growing evidence that the competitive labour markets assumption is not valid for employment in developing countries. Our objective in this paper is to review this evidence, to present theoretical and policy perspectives that follow from it, and to highlight areas for further research.
Topic:
Development, Employment, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Global Focus

102. Gender preference at birth: A new measure for son preference based on stated preferences and observed measures of parents’ fertility decisions

Author:
Mehwish Ali, Ashton de Silva, Sarah Sinclair, and Ankita Mishra
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Investigating preference for sons is a continuing focal area of development economics and demographic research. Son preference presents a challenge in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals of ‘no poverty’, ‘good health and wellbeing’, and ‘gender equality’ by 2030. It is thus important to investigate son preference to inform policy-makers of the potential challenges in achieving these goals. Inaccurate interpretation of the mechanisms of son preference could misinform policy analysis and result in unintended consequences. Existing measures including sex ratios and gender composition of children do not reflect the true extent of son preference in high fertility countries such as Pakistan, where the success of policy action is limited and significant barriers to sex-selective technologies exist. Given the likely impact of son preference on fertility behaviour in Pakistan, accurate measurement of the forms this gender bias can take is necessary to appropriately gauge the influence of son preference on the fertility outcomes. The limited capacity of existing measures to accurately depict son preference in countries with high fertility combined with limited demarcation between pre- and post-birth son preference warrants development of a new measure for son preference to evaluate its effects. In this paper, a new measure of son preference called ‘gender preferences at birth’ (GPB) is presented. GPB combines stated fertility preferences and observed fertility outcomes to acknowledge that households in countries with high fertility and low contraception usage have less control over their fertility decisions.
Topic:
Economics, Sustainable Development Goals, Welfare, Family Planning, Fertility, and Gender
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Global Focus

103. Determinants of corporate cash holdings in South Africa

Author:
Ewa Karwowski, Hanna Szymborska, Keagile Lesame, and Tlhologelo Thoka
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Globally, corporate cash holdings have risen since the 1980s. In South Africa, some commentators have accused corporations of engaging in an ‘investment strike’, while others see corporate liquidity as a precaution against systemic uncertainty. We use the unique South African Revenue Service/National Treasury firm-level dataset to scrutinize corporate liquidity, using panel analysis. Relative to GDP, corporate cash and liquidity holdings have not increased between 2010 and 2017. However, corporate cash is high in international comparison and has grown at the firm level. We do not find evidence for the hypothesis that companies are engaging in an investment strike. Cash and liquidity are shaped by idiosyncratic and sectoral risk factors. In the short run, heightened uncertainty might reduce corporate cash and liquidity as firms struggle to adjust to an unexpected economic situation. In the medium run, we find a strong association between political uncertainty and corporate cash and liquidity holdings.
Topic:
Economics, Corporations, Liquidity, and Cash
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Global Focus

104. Reigniting labour productivity growth in developing countries: Do structural reforms matter?

Author:
Kwamivi Gomado
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
While the negative effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on labour productivity are still fresh in people’s minds, the COVID-19 pandemic raises concerns that productivity will continue to decline. To boost labour productivity and regain economic performance, there is an empirical consensus on the role of structural reforms that allows an efficient reallocation of resources such as labour by reducing rigidities in markets. This study analyses the role of certain structural reforms in improving labour productivity in 35 developing countries over the period of 1990–2014. From the local projection method, our results show that structural reforms have a positive impact on productivity growth in the short and medium terms. The results also illustrate that reforms induce an efficient reallocation of resources within but not between sectors. Taking the business cycle into account in estimates shows that structural reforms stimulate labour productivity growth better in periods of low economic growth.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Financial Crisis, Reform, Business, Economic Growth, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

105. Illicit financial flows and country-by-country reporting in extractive industries

Author:
Saila Stausholm, Petr Janský, and Marek Šedivý
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Economic data are important in governing the international political economy. Some of the most widely used macro statistics risk being undermined by systematic misalignment in reporting of economic activity due to illicit financial flows, as well as tax-minimizing financial transactions by multinational corporations. Measuring these misalignments may prove a way to correct old statistical standards, if adequate data can be obtained. We evaluate whether new transparency and reporting regimes that require country-by-country reporting by multinational corporations could prove a feasible way to appropriate the amount of tax avoidance and use these figures to correct macro statistics. We evaluate the existing data for two of the standards through previous literature and provide original analysis of a third standard that is applied to the extractive industries. We find that the standards lack coherence and workability, and that particularly the extractive industry standard falls short of enabling thorough research on profit reporting and taxmotivated misalignments by multinational corporations.
Topic:
Economics, Tax Evasion, Extractive Industries, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Global Focus

106. News and Noise in Crime Politics: The Role of Announcements and Risk Attitudes

Author:
Wolfgang Maennig and Stefan Wilhelm
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
We examine the short- and medium-term effects of announcements of changes in anti-crime policies in the distant future (news shocks) and provide a first extension of the analysis to cases where the announced policy changes may not be realized in the end (noise shocks). We further innovate by analyzing the effects of policy changes that increase the variance while holding the expected values of policy instruments constant. We confirm that news shocks can bring about immediate changes in delinquency. However, announcements of tighter anti-crime policies may even increase delinquent activities, at least temporarily. In the case of noise shocks, we observe persistent reactions of potential offenders, indicating that a credible communication strategy may generate an impact on crime politics. Finally, increasing the variance of policy instruments without changing the mean expected detection rate may have similar effects.
Topic:
Crime, Law Enforcement, Economic Policy, Risk, and Attitudes
Political Geography:
Global Focus

107. States Seek Treaty on Plastic Pollution

Author:
Szymon Zaręba
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
With negotiations likely to start later this year, a treaty supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is expected to make it possible to tackle the problem of plastic waste pollution, a transnational problem requiring international cooperation. The challenge will not be its adoption as much as its implementation, as it requires legislative action and investment by countries and business. However, it will benefit especially the environment, biodiversity, and human health. It is in Poland’s interest to negotiate flexible solutions and identify directions for national action.
Topic:
Environment, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Pollution, and Plastic
Political Geography:
Poland and Global Focus

108. Deglobalisation and Protectionism

Author:
Uri Dadush
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Trade in goods has slowed markedly since the global financial crisis (GFC), but there is no deglobalisation: most countries have seen increased international integration across nearly all goods, services and factor markets. China has become more self-reliant and is a notable exception in goods trade. Despite some dramatic instances, protectionism has largely been kept at bay and trade in goods remains quite free, perhaps freer than it was before the GFC. The proliferation and deepening of free trade agreements have contributed to this outcome. There has been deglobalisation of capital markets, but not because of protectionism. Despite efforts to erect barriers in some sensitive sectors, technology flows quite freely across borders because of the internet. However, trade policy uncertainty increased after the election of President Trump, a trend that persists under President Biden, and the biggest challenge is to avoid backsliding. There are many missed opportunities in the globalisation of services and of capital flows – especially those to developing countries. Increased migration remains potentially the largest source of gain from globalisation, but it is also the most fraught politically.
Topic:
Economy, Trade, Trade Policy, and Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

109. Greeniums in sovereign bond markets

Author:
Monika Grzegorczyk
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The total market value of green bonds exceeded half a trillion dollars in 2021 and will increase to $1 trillion by the end of 2022. The growing European green sovereign bond market has a value of close to €147 billion at issuance. We study whether investors price green sovereign bonds differently to normal sovereign bonds. We do not expect to find a so-called ‘greenium’: the promise attached to green sovereign bonds is rather loosely defined and green and normal sovereign bonds are both backed by the full faith and credit of their respective governments. However, when systematically matching green and normal sovereign bonds using a number of criteria, including date of issuance and maturity, a small greenium can be measured. More research is needed to understand why rational investors do not arbitrage away this greenium.
Topic:
Finance, Economy, Public Debt, Bonds, Green Economy, and Sovereign Bonds
Political Geography:
Global Focus

110. A gender perspective on artificial intelligence and jobs: The vicious cycle of digital inequality

Author:
Estrella Gomez-Herrera and Sabine Köszegi
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The worldwide artificial intelligence market is expected to increase enormously in the next few years. Because of AI’s immense potential, virtually all industries will be affected by the implementation of AI systems, resulting in the digitalisation and automation of work processes. This will cause disruptive shifts in labour markets, in terms of the number and profiles of jobs in industries as well as worker skill requirements. We take a gender perspective and analyse how gender stereotypes and gendered work segregation on the one hand, and digitalisation and automation (as a consequence of AI implementation) on the other hand, are entangled and result in a vicious cycle of digital gender inequality. We provide insights into the gender-specific impact of AI technologies, which is relevant for the mitigation of the potential risk of the creation of social inequality and exclusion. We show that existing empirical evidence already indicates that AI will not increase gender equality but will somewhat further exacerbate the gender inequality in labour markets, ranging from further horizontal and vertical occupational gender segregation to an increase in the gender pay gap. We summarise policy guidance and measures to decrease gender inequality in the future.
Topic:
Inequality, Digital Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Gender, and Work
Political Geography:
Global Focus

111. The impact of artificial intelligence on the nature and quality of jobs

Author:
Laura Nurski and Mia Hoffmann
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence (AI), like any workplace technology, changes the division of labour in an organisation and the resulting design of jobs. When used as an automation technology, AI changes the bundle of tasks that make up an occupation. In this case, implications for job quality depend on the (re)composition of those tasks. When AI automates management tasks, known as algorithmic management, the consequences extend into workers’ control over their work, with impacts on their autonomy, skill use and workload. We identify four use cases of algorithmic management that impact the design and quality of jobs: algorithmic work-method instructions; algorithmic scheduling of shifts and tasks; algorithmic surveillance, evaluation and discipline; and algorithmic coordination across tasks. Reviewing the existing empirical evidence on automation and algorithmic management shows significant impact on job quality across a wide range of jobs and employment settings. While each AI use case has its own particular effects on job demands and resources, the effects tend to be more negative for the more prescriptive (as opposed to supportive) use cases. These changes in job design demonstrably affect the social and physical environment of work and put pressure on contractual employment conditions as well. As technology development is a product of power in organisations, it replicates existing power dynamics in society. Consequently, disadvantaged groups suffer more of the negative consequences of AI, risking further job-quality polarisation across socioeconomic groups. Meaningful worker participation in the adoption of workplace AI is critical to mitigate the potentially negative effects of AI adoption on workers, and can help achieve fair and transparent AI systems with human oversight. Policymakers should strengthen the role of social partners in the adoption of AI technology to protect workers’ bargaining power.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Inclusion, and Work
Political Geography:
Global Focus

112. The Artemis Theory of Warfare

Author:
Mark J. Sundahl
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Outer space, long the province of peaceful competition and international cooperation, is being rapidly militarized. We stand today at a rare in8ection point in history that deserves careful thought as humanity moves forward. In short, we face the following choice: we can either protect and build on the special nature of space norms and customs to preserve space as a “laboratory of peace,” or we can militarize space as the new “highest ground” under largely the same rules that govern terrestrial warfare.1 4e sad reality is that our history, being inextricably linked to warfare, predicts that the dream of a peaceful future in space will almost certainly remain just that—a dream. 4at said, if you point out a problem, you should always propose a solution. I will propose a solution to the threat of warfare in space at the end of this article. But, before we get there, I will take a step back and explain some of the assertions above. Why do I call space a “laboratory of peace?” And why is this special status of outer space in jeopardy?
Topic:
International Cooperation, Space, Military, and New Generation Warfare
Political Geography:
Global Focus

113. A lockdown a day keeps the doctor away: The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the Covid-19 pandemic

Author:
Anthonin Levelu and Alexander Sandkamp
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Countries have employed a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in order to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the success of individual measures in reducing the number of infections remains controversial. This paper exploits a panel data set of 107 countries to estimate the effects of 14 NPIs on the spread of the disease. While almost all measures had a dampening effect on the reproduction rate of the virus, public information campaigns and school closings were most effective, followed by testing policies, contact tracing and international travel restrictions. Public event cancellation and school closings were less effective during the second wave of the pandemic, while public information campaigns and the obligation to wear masks worked better. Several NPIs had a stronger impact on infections in autocratic countries, while others were less effective.
Topic:
Health, Economy, Public Policy, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

114. Bilateral trade and conflict heterogeneity

Author:
Katrin Kamin
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Although the number of interstate disputes has fallen in the past 30 years, rising geopolitical competition is challenging the foundation of the absence of great power war. Additionally, the number of internal conflicts is surging. At the same time, globalisation has spun a net of global trade connections and has thus created dependencies, making everyone more vulnerable to the repercussions of conflict. In this context, this paper analyses the relationship between trade and conflict from a trade perspective: Using data from UCDP and COMTRADE this paper studies the effects of five different conflict types on international trade flows in the period 1992 - 2011, including interstate and internal conflicts as well as other types of violence.Applying the gravity equation of international trade and the ppml high-dimensional fixed effects estimator, this paper finds that the heterogeneity of conflict types and their distinct characteristics matter for the magnitude and direction of their influence on trade.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Conflict, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

115. Does ethnic heterogeneity decrease workers’ effort in the presence of income redistribution? An experimental analysis

Author:
Christoph Schütt, David Pipke, Lena Detlefsen, and Gianluca Grimalda
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Ethnic discrimination is ubiquitous, and it has been shown to exert adverse effects on income redistribution. The reason is that a country’s ethnic majority, if richer than the average, may be unwilling to transfer resources to the country’s ethnic minorities if poorer than the average. A yet untested mechanism is that a country’s ethnic majority may reduce their work effort knowing that their income will finance redistribution to ethnic minorities. We test for this mechanism experimentally in triadic interactions. A German citizen acting as a worker is randomly matched with a recipient who can be another German, an economic migrant, or an asylum seeker in Germany. Workers know that another German citizen may transfer part of their earnings to the recipient. The recipient does not exert any work effort. Even if the recipient’s identity does not affect effort in the aggregate, social identity strongly moderates this relationship. Participants with a strong German identity, i.e., who report feeling close to other Germans, exert significantly less effort than other participants if the recipient is an asylum seeker. They also exert more effort when matched with a German recipient than an asylum seeker, while participants with a less strong German identity do the opposite. Moreover, participants with a strong German identity exert slightly more effort when matched with economic migrants than with asylum seekers, while others tend to do the opposite, albeit statistically insignificantly. Workers’ beliefs over the third party’s redistribution rate do not mediate such results and are generally inaccurate.
Topic:
Economics, Discrimination, Tax Systems, Labor Market, Redistribution, and Welfare State
Political Geography:
Global Focus

116. Carbon dioxide removal in a global analytical climate economy

Author:
Martin Quaas, Felix Meier, Wilfried Rickels, and Christian Traeger
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Net-zero climate policies foresee deployment of atmospheric carbon dioxide removal wit geo-logical, terrestrial, or marine carbon storage. While terrestrial and geological storage would be governed under the framework of national property rights, marine storage implies that carbon is transferred from one global common, the atmosphere, to another global common, the ocean, in particular if storage exceeds beyond coastal applications. This paper investigates the option of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and storage in different (marine) reservoir types in an analytic climate-economy model, and derives implications for optimal mitigation efforts and CDR deployment. We show that the introduction of CDR lowers net energy input and net emis-sions over the entire time path. Furthermore, CDR affects the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) via changes in total economic output but leaves the analytic structure of the SCC unchanged. In the first years after CDR becomes available the SCC is lower and in later years it is higher com-pared to a standard climate-economy model. Carbon dioxide emissions are first higher and then lower relative to a world without CDR. The paper provides the basis for the analysis of decentralized and potentially non-cooperative CDR policies.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economy, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

117. The impact of trade and trade policy on the environment and the climate: A review

Author:
Gabriel Felbermayr and Sonja Peterson
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
While international trade can offer gains from specialization and access to a wider range of products, it is also closely interlinked with global environmental problems, above all, anthropogenic climate change. This survey provides a structured overview of the economic literature on the interaction between environmental outcomes, trade, environmental policy and trade policy. In this endeavor, it covers approaches reaching from descriptive data analysis based on Input‐Output tables, over quantitative trade models and econometric studies to game‐theoretic analyses. Addressed issues are in particular the emission content of trade and emissions along value chains, the relocation of dirty firms and environmental impacts abroad, impacts of specific trade polices (such as trade agreements or tariffs) or environmental policy (such as Border Carbon Adjustment), transportation emissions, as well as the role of firms. Across the different topics covered, the paper also tries to identify avenues for future research, with a particular focus on extending quantitative trade and environment models.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Trade, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

118. Understanding differences in attitudes to immigration: a meta-analysis of individual-level factors

Author:
Lenka Dražanová, Jérôme Gonnot, Tobias Heidland, and Ralf Krüger
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Public attitudes toward immigration have attracted much scholarly interest and extensive empirical research in recent years. Despite a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature, no firm conclusions have been drawn regarding the factors affecting immigration opinion. We address this gap through a formal meta-analysis derived from the literature regarding immigration attitudes from the top journals of several social science disciplines in the years 2009-2019 and based on a population of 1185 estimates derived from 144 unique analyses on individual-level factors affecting attitudes to immigration. The meta-analytical findings show that two individual-level characteristics are most significantly associated with attitudes to immigration - education (positively) and age (negatively). Our results further reveal that the same individual characteristics do not necessarily explain immigration policy attitudes and attitudes towards immigrants' contribution. The findings challenge several conventional micro-level theories of attitudes to immigration. The meta-analysis can inform future research when planning the set of explanatory variables to avoid omitting key determinants.
Topic:
Globalization, Migration, Immigration, Public Opinion, and Attitudes
Political Geography:
Global Focus

119. The Consequences of Unilateral Withdrawals from the Paris Agreement

Author:
Mario Larch and Joschka Wanner
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
International cooperation is at the core of multilateral climate policy. How is its effectiveness harmed by individual countries dropping out of the global mitigation effort? We develop a multisector structural trade model with emissions from production and a constant elasticity of fossil fuel supply function to simulate the consequences of unilateral withdrawals from the Paris Agreement. Taking into account both direct and leakage effects, we őnd that a US withdrawal would eliminate more than a third of the world emissions reduction (31.8% direct effect and 6.4% leakage effect), while a potential Chinese withdrawal lowers the world emission reduction by 24.1% (11.9% direct effect and 12.2% leakage effect). The substantial leakage is primarily driven by technique effects induced by falling international fossil fuel prices.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

120. Picture This: Social Distance and the Mistreatment of Migrant Workers

Author:
Toman Barsbai, Vojtech Bartos, Victoria Licuanan, Andreas Steinmayr, Erwin Tiongson, and Dean Yang
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
We experimentally study an intervention to reduce mistreatment of Filipino over?seas domestic workers (DWs) by their employers. Encouraging DWs to show their employers a family photo while providing a small gift when starting employment reduced DW mistreatment, increased their job satisfaction, and increased the likeli?hood of contract extension. While generally unaware of the intervention, DWs’ fam?ilies staying behind become more positive about international labor migration. An online experiment with potential employers suggests that the effect operates through a reduction in employers’ perceived social distance from their employees.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, Labor Market, Migrant Workers, and Contracts
Political Geography:
Philippines and Global Focus

121. International Democracy Promotion in Times of Autocratization: From Supporting to Protecting Democracy

Author:
Julia Leininger
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The worldwide wave of autocratization is doing away with many of the democratic achievements made since 1989. Scholarship on international democracy promotion is yet to theorise how democracy can be protected from autocratization. Such a theory must account for different democratic and autocratic trajectories as well as integrate theoretical approaches from international relations and comparative politics in the study of democracy promotion. However, such a combined perspective is still missing. One reason for this is that the field lacks a clear concept of “protection” and does not yet systematically integrate evidence from democratization research. This paper addresses this research gap. It is the first attempt to develop a concept theory of democracy promotion, which includes support and protection of democracy. Coupling this with a depiction of six phases of regime change, this paper makes a second contribution: based on the proposed conceptual and theoretical integration, it generates a series of testable anchor points for further empirical analysis on what strategies are most likely to be effective during the various phases of regime change.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, Regime Change, Democracy, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

122. Determinants of Social Cohesion: Cross-Country Evidence

Author:
Yabibal M. Walle
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Noting that few studies to date have investigated the determinants of social cohesion in a comprehensive and systematic manner, this paper examines the macro-level determinants of social cohesion using a panel of up to 92 developing and developed countries for the period 1990–2020. Employing the system GMM dynamic panel data estimator, which addresses endogeneity concerns by means of internal instruments, I find that the levels of education, government size, globalisation, and economic development have significantly positive effects on most dimensions of a country’s social cohesion. In contrast, inflation, corruption and income inequality are detrimental to social cohesion.
Topic:
Corruption, Development, Income Inequality, Inflation, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

123. The Technology of Terror: from Dynamite to the Metaverse

Author:
Christina Schori Liang
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Non-state actors have always been interested in obtaining and mastering innovative weapons. According to “lethal empowerment theory”, new technologies will be rapidly adopted and adapted by violent non-state actors when they are accessible, cheap, simple to use, transportable, concealable, and effective. Terrorists are interested in weapons that are useful in a wide range of contexts – “that magnify effects, are symbolically resonant and can be given to unexpected uses.” It is thus important to be vigilant in analysing how actors will leverage and innovate new technologies for malicious purposes, in order to confront the “unknown unknowns” and not repeat the mistakes based on a “failure of imagination”, as highlighted in the 9/11 Commission Report.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Terrorism, Governance, Social Media, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

124. Our Digital Future: The Security Implications of Metaverses

Author:
Jean-Marc Rickli and Frederico Mantellassi
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Although the concept of a metaverse or metaverses is not new, current developments in the creation of possible metaverses offer credible prospects of generating increasingly immersive digital experiences that will also provide people with more information, connections and knowledge than ever before. However, metaverses are also likely to exacerbate existing risks surrounding the increased digitalisation of our lives and the role of social media companies in our societies, such as the spread of disinformation or increased societal polarisation. Similarly, technology companies’capacity to collect private data and profile users will also increase. Growing levels of immersivity will reinforce risks such as increased digital crime or extremist radicalisation, but will also create new ones that pertain to cognitive manipulations. This could lead to the transformation of social organisations and a questioning of the legitimacy of traditional institutions. Metaverses also offer new dimensions for power politics and geopolitical confrontations, and a platform for conducting cognitive warfare. Responsible innovations and security-by-design must be the guiding principles of efforts to develop metaverses.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Social Media, Innovation, and Digital Culture
Political Geography:
Global Focus

125. Securing AI-based Security Systems

Author:
Sandra Scott-Hayward
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Fundamental weaknesses of AI include brittleness, embedded bias, catastrophic forgetting and lack of explainability. Although research is under way to address some of these issues, the adoption of AI techniques and models in security systems exposes potentially critical security systems to weaknesses/vulnerabilities such as these. Adversarial training is one strongly recommended approach to increase the robustness (i.e. reduce the brittleness) of the AI model. In this approach, the training dataset is extended to include adversarial examples representative of potential attacks on the system. However, the implementation of adversarial training is currently ad hoc. Given the evidence of AI weaknesses, the omission of adversarial training and similar hardening techniques for AI-based security systems is unacceptable. Standardised testing and evaluation of AI-based security systems is recommended. From a governance perspective, evidence of adversarial robustness evaluation should be a minimum requirement for the acceptance of an AI-based security system. The production of strong adversarial samples does not account for “black swan” events, i.e. random and unexpected events that have an extreme impact. Given that security systems tend to be designed to detect “old” or “known” types of attack, ways need to be found to manage the occurrence of “new” attacks.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

126. The White Paper on the Future of Environmental Peacebuilding

Author:
Oli Brown and Nicolucci-Altman-Giuliana
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The term ‘White Paper’ is typically used in government circles to denote a publicly available, balanced document designed to help readers make decisions. This white paper seeks to encourage debate and discussion over the challenges, opportunities, and possibilities for environmental peacebuilding in conflict-affected states and societies. The paper and compendium are the product of a global conversation about the future of environmental peacebuilding and they draw from extensive academic work and practical experience. This white paper is inspired by many voices. Though concise, the white paper hopes to emphasize the growing assortment of approaches, ideas and visions for the future of environmental peacebuilding. The white paper is divided into four parts. The first gathers perspectives on the global context of environmental peacebuilding. The second points to some of the key challenges to environmental peacebuilding practice, while part three highlights important opportunities to harness the environment for peace. The fourth presents an agenda for the future of environmental peacebuilding.
Topic:
Security, Environment, International Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

127. Peace and Security 2025

Author:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The exact nature of the peace and security environment of 2025 is, of course, unknown, but we have information available to us today and yesterday’s experience to guide us in our attempts to imagine what the key features of that environment might be. This teaches us that surprises will continue to happen. Our attempt to identify what 2025 will look like could simply stop here, and we could approach the next few years day by day and month by month, establish our strategic plans, and constantly adjust them in response to new circumstances as they arise. However, we can go a step further and use strategic foresight to help us creatively and systematically explore how that future may unfold and consider collectively the alternatives available to us for dealing with what happens and its implications. This publication takes the latter approach by asking the authors to determine a vision for particular global regions and realistically and concretely assess how we can achieve this vision (Part I), and present suggestions for how we as professionals in the peace and security domain can collaborate to respond as effectively as possible to the challenges of the next few years (Part II). In that sense, the analysis and suggestions presented here balance realism about the challenges ahead with a proactive and constructive perspective on how best to confront them. It is with this in mind that the subheading of this publication is “disrupted visions and resilient approaches”.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Peace, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Global Focus

128. Delay, Detect, Defend: Preparing for a Future in which Thousands Can Release New Pandemics

Author:
Kevin M. Esvelt
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The world is demonstrably vulnerable to the introduction of a single pandemic virus with a comparatively low case fatality rate. The deliberate and simultaneous release of many pandemic viruses across travel hubs could threaten the stability of civilisation. Current trends suggest that within a decade, tens of thousands of skilled individuals will be able to access the information required for them to single-handedly cause new pandemics. Safeguarding civilisation from the catastrophic misuse of biotechnology requires delaying the development and misuse of pandemic-class agents while building systems capable of reliably detecting threats and preventing nearly all infections.
Topic:
Security, Public Health, Pandemic, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

129. The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Global Sanctions Landscape

Author:
Ali Ahmadi
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The Russia-Ukraine conflict will accelerate the global trend towards increasing great power competition that pits the existing West-anchored world order against others, especially Russia and China. This new era will have significant implications for the global sanctions landscape as sanctions that have been effective in harming countries with smaller economies are increasingly focused on larger economic powers that are integrated into the global economy. This will carry a far greater risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the sanctions weapon, because larger economies like that of China have a greater capacity to overcome technology export restrictions and the US dollar’s centrality in global finance. While sanctions campaigns often seek to coerce the target state into policy modification, sanctions may be increasingly used for the purpose of economic containment by attempting to retard the long-term economic development of states. This may result in open-ended sanctions campaigns that will generate a new era of geoeconomics where sanctions risk factors become key to the design of business relationships and supply chains. The use of financial sanctions against larger economies will exacerbate already existing trends of de-banking and a decline in corresponding banking relationships. Technology sanctions and export controls will be increasingly central as sanction-imposing countries in the West seek to leverage their superiority in key emerging technologies against those they perceive to be their adversaries.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Sanctions, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

130. Food Insecurity Beyond Borders: Untangling the Complex Impacts of Ukraine War on Global Food Security

Author:
Jose Montesclaros and Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Conflict has historically influenced food insecurity within countries. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is of a different nature, as it is worsening food insecurity in other countries too, thereby undermining global food security. This NTS insight untangles the dynamics of conflict-induced food insecurity beyond borders amid the ongoing war. Today’s conflict poses an unprecedented challenge to global food security given its timing, with countries inheriting fiscal challenges from previous bouts with the COVID-19 pandemic; concurrent disruptions to food and energy supply chains; and worsening climate threats to agriculture. Should the war be protracted, the world risks further instability through cost-of-living crises and food price crises. World leaders should therefore carefully weigh these risks, as they deliberate their stances in putting an end to the war.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Food, Food Security, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

131. Is Doughnut Economics a Means Towards Achieving Planetary Health?

Author:
Jonathan Ramakrishna
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
With the advent of climate change, the global focus is no longer lingering alone on climate change mitigation and has shifted towards climate adaptation as well. The 2015 Paris Agreement’s target of restricting the average temperature rise in the 21st century to well below two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels is increasing unlikely, given the inaction of states and the global lack of progress in meeting Paris Agreement goals. As nations scramble to meet Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and effectively design climate policies, the global crisis has given rise to a new domain, Planetary Health. Planetary Health, an interdisciplinary field, is described as a solutions-focused discipline which aims to analyse, mitigate, and resolve human disruption to Earth’s natural systems in the new Anthropocene epoch. The Anthropocene epoch, on the other hand, is established as a geological climate where human activity is drastically altering earth’s systems to an extent that will be reflected in fossil records. Planetary Health inextricably links human health to the health of the planet and illustrates the interdependency of the two, and this relationship has been substantiated by findings which concur that countries with higher ecological threats concurrently experience greater social vulnerability. When climate-induced disasters occur due to human action, there are subsequent consequences on food, water, energy, and human security. The consequences are disproportionately felt by vulnerable communities in states that lack resources and capabilities to address the consequent impacts on human security, and climate instability is a driving force behind political instability. Thus, there is cause for concern not only for the planet’s health but also for human health as the environment’s health continues to dwindle in the Anthropocene Epoch. As such, the concept of Planetary Health is a response to threatened climate security and human security.
Topic:
Economics, Health, International Cooperation, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

132. A Study on the Effects of Multinational Production on Global and Domestic Value Chains Following Trade Restructuring and Corresponding International Economic Policies

Author:
Myoung Shik Choi and Hun Dae Lee
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Emphasizing foreign affiliates amid stagnant global value-chained trade, this study provides important evidence for measurable policies which should be taken dependent on the level of GVCs integration in shaping international trade flows and multinational production activity. The recent decreased share of value-added exports within gross exports represents characteristics of a wider value chained network. It is common not only for firms to increase their economic activities globally but also for oversea affiliates to operate as the linchpin between the international and domestic parts of value chains. Our findings suggest that foreign affiliate activity strengthens domestic value chains, thereby leading to the outcome of further growth in the host country, while domestic affiliate activity abroad strengthens global value chains which spur growth in the broader world economy. Based on empirical discussions centered on participating in GVCs, OECD high-income countries significantly integrated into GVCs will benefit from upgrading their GVCs policies such as capturing value-added in exports and building new technology or innovation. There is also a need to continue enforcing the domestic linkages of MNE affiliates, which contributes to growth and employment as they contract and cooperate with domestic firms. In addition, low-income countries not fully integrated into GVCs in the Asia-Pacific region may need to secure entry into existing GVCs with trade liberalization, while middle-income countries which have secured entry into GVCs may focus on enhancing competitiveness by increasing productivity and developing regional economic integration through forums like APEC.
Topic:
Multinational Corporations, Economic Policy, Free Trade, Industry, and Value Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

133. Regulating the International Digital Economy, with Trade and Innovation in Mind

Author:
Douglas Lippoldt
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The international digital economy is growing rapidly, and the fragmented governance framework is struggling to keep pace. Global entities such as the World Trade Organization and regional trade agreements offer a patchwork approach to governance. This paper illustrates the importance of governance in relation to private-sector innovation and recommends next steps to enhance governance, close gaps and promote further innovation. Better definition and international alignment of the framework for governance of digital trade and data could lead to greater privacy, trust and security.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regulation, Digital Economy, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

134. A Future Built on Data: Data Strategies, Competitive Advantage and Trust

Author:
Susal Ariel Aarsonson
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
In the twenty-first century, data became the subject of national strategy. This paper examines these visions and strategies to better understand what policy makers hope to achieve. Data is different from other inputs: it is plentiful, easy to use and can be utilized and shared by many different people without being used up. Moreover, data can be simultaneously a commercial asset and a public good. Various types of data can be analyzed to create new products and services or to mitigate complex “wicked” problems that transcend generations and nations (a public good function). However, an economy built on data analysis also brings problems — firms and governments can manipulate or misuse personal data, and in so doing undermine human autonomy and human rights. Given the complicated nature of data and its various types (for example, personal, proprietary, public, and so on), a growing number of governments have decided to outline how they see data’s role in the economy and polity. While it is too early to evaluate the effectiveness of these strategies, policy makers increasingly recognize that if they want to build their country’s future on data, they must also focus on trust.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Data, and Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

135. Rudiments of a Space Security Policy Framework

Author:
Richard J. Chasdi
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The commercial space industry is taking off, with a growing number of private companies sending people into orbit. Along with this growth in demand from businesses and consumers is the need for more space security and policy approaches to address the potential risks of space exploration. The Moon is currently the main target of future space missions because of its resources and its strategic location to support missions to Mars. International law can help mitigate threats, such as resource depletion on the Moon, which could lead to conflicts among stakeholders on Earth.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Space, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

136. A Digital Loonie among Many Digital Currencies: Prospects and Outlook

Author:
Pierre L. Siklos
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Global interest in digitalization is growing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and driving central banks to introduce retail central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The successful rollout of retail CBDCs will depend on each country’s institutional capacity and the scope of international cooperation and regulation. Retail CBDCs are unlikely to replace domestic currencies but instead complement notes and coins in circulation, offering greater convenience and lower transactions costs.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Currency, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

137. To Prevent the Collapse of Biodiversity, the World Needs a New Planetary Politics

Author:
Stewart Patrick
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The planet is in the midst of an environmental emergency, and the world is only tinkering at the margins. Humanity’s addiction to fossil fuels and voracious appetite for natural resources are accelerating climate change and degrading ecosystems on land and sea, threatening the integrity of the biosphere and thus the survival of our own species. Given these risks, it is shocking that the multilateral system has failed to respond more forcefully. Belatedly, the United States, the EU, the UK, and some other advanced market democracies have adopted more aggressive greenhouse gas reduction targets, but their ability to deliver is suspect, while critical emerging economies like China and India have resisted accelerating their own decarbonization.1 Even more concerning, existing multilateral commitments, including on climate change, fail to address the other half of the planet’s ecological crisis: collapsing biodiversity, which the leaders of the Group of 7 nations rightly call an “equally important existential threat.”
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Politics, Multilateralism, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

138. Reducing Pernicious Polarization: A Comparative Historical Analysis of Depolarization

Author:
Jennifer McCoy, Benjamin Press, Murat Somer, and Ozlem Tuncel
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The global rise of political polarization has fueled concerns about its detrimental impact on politics and society. From an increase in political violence to a decrease in the quality of democracy and governance, the threats posed by pernicious polarization—the division of society into two mutually antagonistic political camps—are diverse and acute. Determining how to reduce these tensions is therefore an urgent challenge. Using data on political polarization from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data set, this working paper assesses various instances of depolarization around the globe since 1900 and analyzes their long-term sustainability. Polarization is increasing worldwide. When broken down by region, V-Dem data suggest that every region except Oceania has seen polarization levels rise since 2005. Africa has had the smallest increase during this period, although it has long had high levels of polarization. Rising polarization in Europe is being driven by deepening political divisions in Eastern and Central Europe, Southern Europe, and the Balkans. In the Western Hemisphere, the largest democracies—Brazil, Mexico, and the United States—are all experiencing extreme levels of polarization. East Asia’s polarization levels have traditionally been low, though increasing political tensions in places like South Korea and Taiwan are driving up the region’s score. And in South Asia, India’s polarization has skyrocketed since 2014. Jennifer McCoy Jennifer McCoy is a nonresident scholar in the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, where she focuses on political polarization and democratic resilience in the U.S. and around the world. To better understand the various paths by which polarized societies might overcome or reduce their political divisions, this working paper examines perniciously polarized countries that have successfully depolarized, at least for a time. Through a quantitative analysis of the V-Dem data set, this study identifies 105 episodes from 1900 to 2020 where countries were able to reduce polarization from pernicious levels for at least five years. These 105 episodes represent roughly half of the total episodes of pernicious polarization during the time period, thus indicating a fairly robust capacity of countries to depolarize. If considered in terms of country experiences rather than episodes (because many countries have experienced multiple episodes in a cycle of polarization and depolarization), then the data indicate that two-thirds of the 178 countries for which V-Dem provides polarization data have experienced one or more episodes of pernicious polarization, but only thirty-five countries (20 percent) have failed to experience any depolarization to below-pernicious levels. Given this apparent capacity among the majority of the world’s countries to depolarize from pernicious levels at least some of the time, this analysis seeks to identify the contexts and sustainability of those experiences and to encourage further research into their causal mechanisms and outcomes for democracies. The analysis offers a preliminary discussion of the potential meaning and normative implications of depolarization as a concept and policy goal. It then uses qualitative analysis to identify patterns in the contexts of various depolarization cases and gauge the sustainability of these trends. Most of these depolarization episodes were associated with dramatic changes in a country’s political life. An analysis of contextual factors showed that almost three-quarters of the cases came after major systemic shocks: a foreign intervention, independence struggle, violent conflict, or regime change (primarily in a democratizing direction). In the remainder of cases, countries depolarized within a given regime structure, whether democratic or autocratic. Tellingly, the authors identified no cases of depolarization from pernicious levels among liberal democracies. This is because very few countries classified as full liberal democracies have ever reached pernicious levels; the United States stands out today as the only wealthy Western democracy with persistent levels of pernicious polarization. Just under half of all depolarizing cases were able to sustain depolarization for a decade or longer. In a second sizeable group of cases, countries managed polarization to some degree, either living with chronic near-pernicious levels after depolarizing, or else repolarizing to near-pernicious levels within ten years. Finally, 15 percent of the cases returned to pernicious levels within the first decade. Troublingly, when the authors analyzed the entire time period from 1900 to 2020, nearly half of the countries that had sustained depolarization or managed polarization for at least a decade later returned to pernicious levels of polarization. These outcomes illustrate the difficulty of sustaining low levels of polarization, and they indicate that a cyclical pattern of polarization, depolarization, and repolarization may be a characteristic feature of political life in many places. Only a fraction (14 percent) of cases resulted in sustained depolarization over the long term.The mechanisms and strategies that enable such sustained depolarization in democracies will be the subject of future research. But given the small number of democracies (eleven) able to accomplish this feat amid the larger pattern of cyclical polarization and depolarization, it will be crucial to also understand strategies of managing polarization at moderately high levels while avoiding democratic erosion, government dysfunction, or returns to pernicious polarization and potential violence.
Topic:
Politics, History, Polarization, and Society
Political Geography:
Global Focus

139. Governance for Resilience: How Can States Prepare for the Next Crisis?

Author:
Frances Brown
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The pandemic has presented policymakers with daunting, interlinked, and often unprecedented challenges. From health emergencies that also upend economies to trade disruptions that also pose new multilateral diplomatic dilemmas, the pandemic has generated challenges that seem exceptional in both scale and degree of interconnection. Although the coronavirus pandemic has generated a dizzying series of harsh social, political, and economic firsts, such dilemmas will not be the last. Trend lines around a series of domestic and multinational governance issues, including climate change, migration, rising geopolitical tensions, and citizen alienation from governing institutions, suggest that complex, interlinked crises will be features of the future. While national and multilateral policymakers should work to alleviate the drivers of such crises, they must also strive to prepare their countries to adapt and recover from complex shocks. In short, they must try to build resilience. The need for resilience will be especially acute in developing and fragile states. These countries will need to respond to compounding shocks across multiple domains, without the head start that their developed-world counterparts enjoy. Equally, donors and policymakers from the Global North must also elevate resilience and adaptation as key components of their approaches to supporting fragile states. This call to bolster countries’ resilience is hardly new. Even before the pandemic, the policy arena featured increasing calls for resilience; now, the chorus has become almost deafening. Recent seminal policy and analytic documents—including the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s flagship report,1 the UK’s Integrated Review,2 and the U.S. Interim National Security Strategy3—have underscored that states’ resilience and capacity for adaptation will be key to their future success in the geopolitical arena. In donors’ peacebuilding and development policies, high-level emphasis on resilience has also swelled over the past few years, including in official communications from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,4 the United States government,5 and the European Union.6 In some development practitioner and civil society circles, the need for resilience is so frequently invoked that it sometimes borders on cliché.7 The increasingly ubiquitous recommendation to “bolster resilience” is valuable for at least two related reasons. First, it offers a more specific strategic objective than conversations around “state fragility” writ large, which have often been too broad to generate concrete policy responses. Second, recent, failed international statebuilding projects have underscored that state fragility is not to be “fixed”—instead, it is to be managed and mitigated.8 The emphasis on resilience thus marks a helpful shift away from maximalist policy framing and toward a more attainable one. But concrete insights on how developing or fragile countries actually achieve resilience are less clear and less common. Given the broad consensus that state fragility is deeply linked to governance, for many policymakers, good governance is central. To be sure, many other factors beyond governance—including demographic, geographic, military, and economic ones—affect a state’s resilience. But a country’s governance and political institutions generally undergird all other dynamics in determining how effectively that state can bounce back from setbacks. What exactly does the concept of “good governance for resilience” entail in practice? This paper surveys the evidence. Below, it reviews the governance-related characteristics and capabilities that affect a country’s resilience. For the purposes of this paper, resilience at the national level can be understood as a country’s capacity to respond to, adapt to, and grow from stresses and shocks.9 Resilience focuses on bolstering the overall performance of a system in the face of unpredictable and often interconnected hazards, making it different from risk management, which relates to specific hazards.10 A country’s resilience depends on the internal characteristics that allow for states and their institutions to navigate a variety of disruptions.11 An overarching insight from the evidence is that governance for resilience is complex and often multidirectional. Several characteristics, such as decentralization, have an ambiguous effect on resilience: they enable a country to withstand some setbacks but leave it more vulnerable in other ways. Still other characteristics—including whether a country is a democracy or an authoritarian political system—do not appear have a clear-cut effect on resilience. In contrast, a few governance “super-factors”—such as control of corruption, societal trust, and high quality political leadership—are exceptionally powerful in enabling a country to augment its resilience through multiple pathways. Finally, this paper considers the broader implications of governance for resilience as a policy agenda. The framing of bolstering countries’ resilience is a valuable one, but it also raises several vexing trade-offs and dilemmas. In particular, it prompts the question of whose resilience, in specific, it refers to, since resilience of state institutions does not always mean resilience of all parts of the population. Looking ahead, the policy refrain of “building resilience” in fragile and developing states, appealing though it is, should be refined to encompass these thorny realities.
Topic:
Governance, Crisis Management, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

140. Understanding and Responding to Global Democratic Backsliding

Author:
Thomas Carothers and Benjamin Press
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, democratic backsliding has become a defining trend in global politics. However, despite the extensive attention paid to the phenomenon, there is surprisingly little consensus about what is driving it. The most common explanations offered by analysts—ranging from the role of Russia and China and disruptive technologies to the rise of populism, the spread of political polarization, and democracies’ failure to deliver—fall short when tested across a wide range of cases. A more persuasive account of backsliding focuses on the central role of leader-driven antidemocratic political projects and the variety of mechanisms and motivations they entail. This paper identifies and analyzes three distinct types of backsliding efforts: grievance-fueled illiberalism, opportunistic authoritarianism, and entrenched-interest revanchism. In cases of grievance-fueled illiberalism, a political figure mobilizes a grievance, claims that the grievance is being perpetuated by the existing political system, and argues that it is necessary to dismantle democratic norms and institutions to redress the underlying wrongs. Opportunistic authoritarians, by contrast, come to power via conventional political appeals but later turn against democracy for the sake of personal political survival. In still other backsliding cases, entrenched interest groups—generally the military—that were displaced by a democratic transition use undemocratic means to reassert their claims to power. Although motivations and methods differ across backsliding efforts, a key commonality among them is their relentless focus on undermining countervailing governmental and nongovernmental institutions that are designed to keep them in check. As international democracy supporters continue to refine their strategies of responding to democratic backsliding, they must better differentiate between facilitating factors and core drivers. Such an approach will point to the need for a stronger focus on the nature of leader-driven antidemocratic projects, identifying ways to create significant disincentives for backsliding leaders, and bolstering crucial countervailing institutions. Moreover, they should deepen their differentiation of strategies to take account of the diverse motivations and methods among the three main patterns of backsliding. Only in this way will they build the needed analytic and practical capacity to meet the formidable challenge that democratic backsliding presents.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Populism, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

141. A CERN Model for Studying the Information Environment

Author:
Alicia Wanless and Jacob N. Shapiro
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After the Second World War, European science was suffering. Scientists were leaving Europe in pursuit of safety and work opportunities, among other reasons. To stem the exodus and unite the community around a vision of science for peace, in 1949, a transatlantic group of scholars proposed the creation of a world-class physics research facility in Europe.1 The grand vision was for this center to unlock the mysteries of the universe. Their white paper laid the foundation for the European Center for Nuclear Research (CERN), which today supports fundamental research in physics across an international community of more than 10,000 scientists from twenty-three member states and more than seventy other nations.2 Together, researchers at CERN built cutting-edge instruments to observe dozens of subatomic particles for the first time. And along the way they invented the World Wide Web, which was originally conceived as a tool to empower CERN’s distributed teams. Such large-scale collaboration is once again needed to connect scholars, policymakers, and practitioners internationally and to accelerate research, this time to unlock the mysteries of the information environment. Democracies around the world are grappling with how to safeguard democratic values against online abuse, the proliferation of illiberal and xenophobic narratives, malign interference, and a host of other challenges related to a rapidly evolving information environment. What are the conditions within the information environment that can foster democratic societies and encourage active citizen participation? Sadly, the evidence needed to guide policymaking and social action in this domain is sorely lacking. Researchers, governments, and civil society must come together to help. This paper explores how CERN can serve as a model for developing the Institute for Research on the Information Environment (IRIE).3 By connecting disciplines and providing shared engineering resources and capacity-building across the world’s democracies, IRIE will scale up applied research to enable evidence-based policymaking and implementation. Where CERN “exists to understand the mystery of nature for the benefit of humankind,” IRIE will exist to understand the mystery of the information environment for the benefit of democracies and their citizens.4 While the laws of physics change slowly, the conditions within the information environment are little understood and changing rapidly through the addition of new technology. Additionally, studying the information environment will require analysis of personal and at times sensitive data of internet users, increasing the need for international collaboration. As CERN did by inventing new collaboration tools, IRIE will leverage those same technologies to unlock the collective genius of researchers and practitioners from a variety of fields to strengthen democracy, alongside interested citizens who contribute their own data and expertise. While there are obvious differences between the field of physics and those emerging to study the information environment, aspects of CERN’s development can guide the creation of IRIE, an institution that can uniquely address the growing needs of researchers.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Research, Collaboration, Information, and CERN
Political Geography:
Global Focus

142. Revisiting ‘Minimal Nuclear Deterrence’: Laying the Ground for Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament

Author:
Tytti Erästö
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The prospects for nuclear arms control appear dim following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Instead of continued reliance on nuclear deterrence, the resulting new awareness of nuclear risks should inform bold nuclear disarmament measures in the long term. Drawing on previous debates on ‘minimal nuclear deterrence’, this paper argues that nuclear deterrence is possible at low numbers, and hence reliance on nuclear deterrence is not an obstacle to significant progress in nuclear disarmament. In particular, there is scope for reducing the vast Russian and United States nuclear arsenals, which risk planetary-scale destruction and stand in the way of multilateral nuclear disarmament. At the same time, recent military-technological evolution has raised the bar for minimal nuclear deterrence by questioning the survivability of nuclear forces. In addition to making recommendations on how to address such strategic challenges, the paper addresses some conceptual dilemmas traditionally associated with minimal nuclear deterrence.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Disarmament, Multilateralism, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

143. Chronic Crisis Financing? Fifty Years of Humanitarian Aid and Future Prospects

Author:
Gary Milante and Jannie Lilja
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This study maps trends of humanitarian funding in the context of total aid at the country level between 1969 and 2019 and estimates how these trends will change in the future. Historical trends show that the composition of aid has changed significantly in the last two decades: the humanitarian share of total aid to countries has increased from approximately 5 per cent in the 1990s to 23 per cent in 2019. Humanitarian aid was originally intended to respond to short-term emergencies, however, most of today’s humanitarian financing goes to protracted situations. Today many countries receive high levels of humanitarian assistance for a decade or longer, referred to in this paper as ‘chronic’ crises. More than half of total global humanitarian assistance (59 per cent) in the decade 2010–19 went to chronic crises, typically synonymous with conflict-affected, fragile and refugee-hosting settings. These chronic crises have become more prevalent since 1995. Conservative forecasts suggest that 71 per cent of humanitarian assistance over the next decade will continue to go to countries receiving high levels of assistance today. The study concludes with open questions to policymakers regarding the use of the humanitarian financing instrument. In chronic crisis settings, the strategic balance between humanitarian, development and peacebuilding financing and the interplay between these financing streams deserves attention.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Finance, Resilience, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

144. Gender Dimensions of Climate Insecurity

Author:
Elizabeth Smith
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Gender is a traditionally under researched dimension in scholarship on climate and security. However, as recent research has noted, it is a variable that cannot only shape how different groups of individuals are affected by climate-related security risks. Gendered norms and power structures can also increase or mitigate the likelihood of climate-related security risks. This SIPRI Insights contributes to the growing body of research on gender, climate and security by analysing the gender dimensions of the four pathways of climate insecurity featured in past SIPRI studies: (a) livelihood deterioration, (b) migration and changing mobility, (c) tactical considerations of armed groups and (d) elite exploitation and resource mismanagement. It reviews literature to highlight how gender can influence resilience and risk for different groups of men and women within the pathways. Where relevant, it also discusses how gender may serve as an instigating factor for the respective pathways. The paper stresses the need to critically understand the different and interlinked experiences of diverse groups of men and women in the pathway contexts and to ensure equal leadership and participation of all affected groups in addressing climate-related security risks.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Risk, Peace, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

145. Pathways for Reducing Military Spending in Post-civil Conflict Settings

Author:
Alexandra Marksteiner and Diego Lopes da Silva
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
High military spending is a common and consequential legacy of civil conflict. Reducing military spending can yield valuable economic gains and further contribute to the recovery of post-civil conflict societies. However, little is known about the conditions that enable military spending reductions in a conflict’s aftermath. This SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security tackles this issue and provides a comparison of post-civil conflict conditions and military burden—military spending as a share of gross domestic product—outcomes. It builds on a comparative analysis of 19 post-civil conflict episodes between 1970 and 2020, as well as three detailed case studies, to identify common pathways to post-civil conflict military burden reductions. This research finds that reductions in military burden usually follow peace agreements that encompass trustworthy and legitimate verification mechanisms, the strengthening of institutional means to resolve grievances, and improvements in relations with neighbouring countries.
Topic:
Finance, Military Spending, Resilience, Post-Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

146. Why Diagnostic Expectations Cannot Replace REH

Author:
Roman Frydman and Halina Frydman
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Gennaioli and Shleifer (GS) have proposed diagnostic expectations (DE) as an empirically-based approach to specifying participants’ expectations, which, like REH, can be applied in every model. Beyond its supposedly general applicability, GS’s formalization of DE implies that participants systematically and predictably overreact to news. Here, we present a formal argument that Kahneman and Tversky’s compelling empirical findings, and those of other behavioral economists, do not provide a basis for a general approach to specifying participants’ “predictable errors.” We also show that the overreaction of participants’ expectations is not a regularity, but rather an artifact of GS’s particular specification of DE.
Topic:
Economics, Models, and Predictability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

147. Why Diagnostic Expectations Cannot Replace REH

Author:
Roman Frydman and Halina Frydman
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Gennaioli and Shleifer (GS) have proposed diagnostic expectations (DE) as an empirically-based approach to specifying participants’ expectations, which, like REH, can be applied in every model. Beyond its supposedly general applicability, GS’s formalization of DE implies that participants systematically and predictably overreact to news. Here, we present a formal argument that Kahneman and Tversky’s compelling empirical findings, and those of other behavioral economists, do not provide a basis for a general approach to specifying participants’ “predictable errors.” We also show that the overreaction of participants’ expectations is not a regularity, but rather an artifact of GS’s particular specification of DE.
Topic:
Economics, Academia, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

148. After the Allocation: What Role for the Special Drawing Rights System?

Author:
Tobias Pforr, Fabian Pape, and Steffen Murau
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
In August 2021, the IMF made a new SDR allocation to help ease pandemic-induced financial strains in the Global South. This paper assesses the potential of the SDR system to address debt- related problems in global finance. We analyze the SDR system as a web of interlocking balance sheets whose members can use SDR holdings—the system’s tradable assets—for conversion into usable currency as a perpetual low-interest loan or to make payments to each other. Using original IMF data, we study how the system has been practically used since 1990. Though widely perceived as a solution in search of a problem in the post-Bretton Woods era, we find that the SDR system provides three mechanisms through which IMF members borrow and lend usable currency to each other, with different strings attached: first, transactions by agreement; second, the IMF’s core lending facilities for which the SDR system offers additional resources; and third, IMF-sponsored Trusts which seek to harness the SDR system for development purposes and are the basis for the current idea of ‘voluntary channeling’. Overall, given the SDR system’s idiosyncratic accounting rules, the new allocation can improve the liquidity position of a country and offer some limited avenues for sovereign debt restructuring but comes with new interest and exchange rate risks. Voluntary channeling cannot happen without a wealth transfer, neither the SDR allocation nor the use of Trusts can overcome this problem. Still, Trusts can be a useful instrument to help with debt forgiveness and to ensure that borrowed funds are used for their intended purpose.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

149. An Economic Defense of Multiple Antitrust Goals: Reversing Income Inequality and Promoting Political Democracy

Author:
Mark Glick
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Two recent papers by prominent antitrust scholars argue that a revived antitrust movement can help reverse the dramatic rise in economic inequality and the erosion of political democracy in the United States. Both papers rely on the legislative history of the key antitrust statutes to support their case. Not surprisingly, their recommendations have been met with alarm in some quarters and with skepticism in others. Such proposals by antitrust reformers are often contrasted with the Consumer Welfare Standard that pervades antitrust policy today. The Consumer Welfare Standard suffers from several defects: (1) It employs a narrow, unworkable measure of welfare; (2) It excludes important sources of welfare based on the assumption that antitrust seeks only to maximize wealth; (3) It assumes a constant and equal individual marginal utility of money; and (4) It is often combined with extraneous ideological goals. Even with these defects, however, if applied consistent with its theoretical underpinnings, the consideration of the transfer of labor rents resulting from a merger or dominant firm conduct is supported by the Consumer Welfare Standard. Moreover, even when only consumers (and not producers) are deemed relevant, the welfare of labor still should consistently be considered part of consumer welfare. In contrast, fostering political democracy—a prominent traditional antitrust goal that was jettisoned by the Chicago School—falls outside the Consumer Welfare Standard in any of its constructs. To undergird such important broader goals requires that the Consumer Welfare Standard be replaced with the General Welfare Standard. The General Welfare Standard consists of modern welfare economics modified to accommodate objective analyses of human welfare and purged of inconsistencies.
Topic:
Economics, Democracy, Income Inequality, and Antitrust Law
Political Geography:
Global Focus

150. Government Deficits and Interest Rates: A Keynesian View

Author:
Brett Palatiello and Philip Pilkington
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We test the neoclassical loanable funds model which postulates that, ceteris paribus, government borrowing increases the long-term rate of interest. The empirical literature exploring such a connection remains largely mixed. We clarify the conflicting results by deploying an ARDL model to decompose the relationship in the United States into long and short-run effects across multiple measures of the government deficit and long-term interest rate. We find a tendency for changes in the deficit to increase long-term interest rates in the short run but the effect is reversed in the long run. We argue that these results are consistent with John Maynard Keynes’ view of the long-term rate as being heavily influenced by monetary policy, central bank credibility and market convention.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Economic Theory, Keynes, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Global Focus