Search

Begin New Search Political Geography Global Focus Content Type Working Paper Publication Year within 3 Years Publication Year within 25 Years

201. World economy in summer 2022: Inflation is curbing global growth

Author:
Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Nils Sonnenberg, Stefan Kooths, and Jan Reents
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
In a situation with already elevated inflation, the war in Ukraine and the zero-covid policy in China have led to additional upward pressures on prices and reinforced the global supply chain problems. Real wages are declining in many countries, dampening personal consumption expenditures even though households are often able to draw from a substantial amount of extra savings accumulated during the pandemic. Given the widespread inflationary pressures, central banks have shifted towards a more restrictive monetary policy stance. Against this backdrop, the outlook for global growth has weakened. We forecast global growth of 3.0 percent in 2022 and 3.2 percent in 2023 (measured in terms of purchasing-power parities), representing a reduction by 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points for 2022 and 2023, respectively. The forecast is based on the assumption that commodity prices have peaked, which would reduce inflationary pressures considerably going forward. However, there is the risk that inflation proves to be more persistent than central banks expect. In such a case, central banks would need to step on the brakes more than assumed, with the risk of a recession in advanced economies and a pronounced deterioration in financial conditions in emerging markets
Topic:
Security, Economics, Inflation, COVID-19, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

202. Do various innovation linkages enhance innovation? International evidence

Author:
Rajeev K. Goel
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Whereas various drivers of the international innovative activity have been studied in the literature, our understanding of the contributions of different innovation linkages to innovation deserves more attention. Are the different innovation linkages equally complementary to research inputs in fostering innovation? This paper addresses the contributions of different innovation linkages to innovation, across two different measures of innovation. We find that a broader index of innovation linkages shows positive and significant spillovers on innovation, while joint ventures and university-industry collaborations fail to exert a significant influence. These spillovers are reinforced by the positive and expected impacts of R&D spending. In other results, greater venture capital investments boost innovation in most cases, while more FDI boosts one type of innovation output. These findings are uniquely shown to be sensitive across least- and most innovative nations when a quantile regression is employed. Implications for technology policy are discussed.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

203. Closing Pandora’s Box: How to Improve the Common Reporting Standard

Author:
Menusch Khadjavi and Marjolein Vertelman
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The 2021 pandora papers show that many wealthy individuals and even politicians use shell companies to hide their fortunes. In order to fight international personal tax evasion, the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) was implemented and it helped governments to collect USD 85 billion already. USD 182 billion are still missing from the government budget because of personal tax evasion. The individual implementation strategies of CRS compliant countries can endanger the effectiveness of the Automatic Exchange of Information (AEOI). Several loopholes are used to circumvent the CRS. There are amendments possible which increase the effectiveness by improving the implementation strategies and closing the loopholes. The enforcement of the CRS should become stricter by removing financial institutions’ licenses to operate in cases of non-compliance. Beneficial ownership registers should increase transparency regarding investments and securities. Within the current momentum of international tax legislation, the CRS compliant countries may leverage the USA into signing the CRS as well. The USA could in turn demand a more effective CRS before signing it.
Topic:
Reform, Finance, Business, and Wealth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

205. Lessons from the COVID-19 Crisis: 6 Opportunities to Strengthen Conflict Sensitivity across the HumanitarianDevelopment-Peacebuilding Nexus

Author:
Céline Monnier and Leah Zamore
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic, and efforts to control its spread—including lockdowns, social distancing measures, and border closures—have led to unprecedented health, humanitarian, and socioeconomic shocks worldwide. These shocks, in turn, are raising the likelihood that risks for many forms of violent conflict—crime, armed conflict, violent extremism—may increase. It is crucial for the United Nations (UN) to adopt a conflict-sensitive lens in all relevant operations across the humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding (HDP) nexus to prevent an increasingly volatile situation from deteriorating further.
Topic:
Development, United Nations, Conflict, COVID-19, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

206. Good Peacebuilding Financing: Recommendations for Revitalizing Commitments

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Paige Arthur, and Betty N. Wainaina
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
At a moment of intense global pressure due to the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, support for prevention and peacebuilding remains as vital as ever. This brief offers action-oriented recommendations to advance new and more inclusive approaches to peacebuilding financing on the eve of the UN High-level Meeting on Peacebuilding Financing.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Finance, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

207. Raising awareness about the increased threat of the criminal and terrorist use of cryptocurrencies

Author:
Nicolo Miotto
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
Criminal and terrorist organisations are increasingly using cryptocurrencies, thus leading to emerging threats in the cyberspace. Money-laundering, tax evasion, ransomware extortion, trading in illicit goods and services, purchasing of child sexual abuse material and terrorist financing are concerning criminal and terrorist activities involving the use of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and Monero are the most used cryptocurrencies among both criminals and terrorists, however other cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin, Dash and Ethereum are being growingly used in criminal and terrorist financial activities. The anonymity/pseudo-anonymity and security characterising cryptocurrencies can challenge law enforcement investigative efforts aimed at countering criminal and terrorist activities. There has not been a widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies by terrorist and criminals yet, however this is likely to change in the next future.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Cryptocurrencies, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Global Focus

209. Does Deplatforming Work? Unintended consequences of banning far-right content creators

Author:
Danny Klinenberg
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Social media has become an outlet for extremists to fundraise and organize on, potentially leading to deadly consequences. While governments deliberate on how to regulate this challenge, some social media companies have removed creators of offensive content—deplatforming. I estimate the effects of deplatforming on revenue and viewership, using variation in the timing of removals across two video-streaming companies- YouTube, and its far-right competitor, Bitchute. I construct a novel dataset including Bitcoin wallets linking YouTube and Bitchute accounts for 79 far-right content creators, including propagandists for violent domestic extremist movements. Being deplatformed on YouTube results in a 30% increase in weekly Bitcoin revenue and a 50% increase in viewership on Bitchute. This increase in Bitchute activity accounts for about 65% of the estimated foregone revenue and 5.9% of viewership lost from YouTube, implying a negative net effect of deplatforming.
Topic:
Media, Social Media, Far Right, Censorship, and Digital Space
Political Geography:
Global Focus

210. Economic Costs of Friend-shoring

Author:
Beata Javorcik, Lucas Kitzmueller, Helena Schweiger, and Muhammad A. Yıldırım
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Geo-political tensions and disruptions to global value chains have led policymakers to reevaluate their approach to globalisation. Many countries are considering regionalisation and friend-shoring – trading primarily with countries sharing similar values – as a way of minimising exposure to weaponisation of trade and securing access to critical inputs. If followed through, this process has the potential to reverse global economic integration of recent decades. This paper estimates the economic costs of friend-shoring using a quantitative model incorporating inter-country inter-industry linkages. The results suggest that friend-shoring may lead to real GDP losses of up to 4.6% of global GDP. Thus, although friend-shoring may provide insurance against extreme disruptions and increase the security of supply of vital inputs, it would come at a significant cost.
Topic:
Trade, Production, Regionalization, and Friend-shoring
Political Geography:
Global Focus