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51. Mapping Pathways for Peace through the Composition of Official Development Assistance

Author:
Jannie Lilja and Gary Milante
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Mapping the changing composition of official development assistance (ODA) against peace and conflict patterns in recipient countries over time can enhance the understanding of how pathways to peace look like in practice. This working paper presents empirical findings from more comprehensive research into the composition of ODA across aid recipient countries in the period 1990–2020. ODA is broken down into humanitarian, development and peacebuilding aid components. While development assistance is found to dominate across all types of country contexts, and the humanitarian share tends to be larger during conflict, peacebuilding assistance varies by conditions in countries. Post-conflict countries that avoid conflict relapse receive significantly higher shares of peacebuilding aid compared to post-conflict countries that relapse. A ternary graph is introduced to strategically track the composition of the total ODA envelope at the country level during different time periods. The findings suggest that a more effective future deployment of ODA for the advancement of peace and stability is possible.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

52. Planetary health: A holistic vision for people and the planet

Author:
Danielle Brady
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The nexus between health and the environment has been underscored by crises such as COVID-19 and the climate crisis. As awareness of policy interlinkages grows, so does the need for more coordinated EU and national policymaking. Calls for a more holistic approach have long been recognised, but the pandemic has further emphasised the importance of dismantling existing barriers in policymaking to improve the health status of people, animals, and the planet. This Discussion Paper, funded by Sitra, the Finnish Innovation Fund, advocates for implementing a planetary health approach across all levels of governance to encourage transdisciplinary action and puts forward ten recommendations: Pursue coordinated policymaking by breaking down silos. Appoint an Executive Vice President for the Well-being Economy. Plan and implement national roadmaps and establish common indicators. Create best practices platforms. Adopt planetary health for health systems. Promote education on planetary health. Adopt a European-wide communication campaign. Invest in research and innovation. Foster the integration of the European Health Data Space with future data spaces. Work with international partners to adopt a global planetary health approach. Planetary health offers many benefits for health and the environment. However, without concentrated efforts to move beyond the traditional siloed approach to policymaking, the benefits may never be realised.
Topic:
Climate Change, Health, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

53. Divergence in Non-Tariff Measures and the Quality of Traded Products

Author:
Doan Thi Thanh Ha, Kunhyui Kim, and Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Non-tariff measures (NTMs) constitute a grey area where trade policy meets public policy goals. NTMs comprise a diverse set of regulatory policy measures, including testing and certification, rather than traditional international trade policy measures such as tariffs or tariff-rate quotas. Regulatory NTMs protect plants, animals, humans, and consumers from imported harmful products containing diseases; regulate the use of hazardous substances in production; ensure conformity with common standards; and protect the environment. Trade literature has focused on the impact of NTMs on trade flows, whereas few studies address the potential welfare-improving effects of these measures. This paper fills this gap by examining the relationship between NTM applications and the quality of traded products. Two questions are addressed. First, do more or additional burdens of NTMs in the foreign market incur a higher quality of exported products? Second, is the quality impact of NTMs in different sectors different between food and other manufacturing goods? We adopt a recently developed indicator to capture the additional requirements for exporters stemming from importers’ imposition of NTMs, and a quality estimator that controls for price. Our empirical results indicate that, overall, divergence in sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures between the two trading partners reduces the quality of traded goods. Furthermore, while the divergence in SPS measures reduces the quality of traded goods in the manufacturing sector, the divergence in technical barriers to trade shows no statistically significant impact on the quality of traded goods between the two trading partners. The results imply that additional costs from technical barriers to trade are negligible compared with those from SPS measures in the manufacturing sector.
Topic:
Regulation, Tariffs, Public Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

54. Global Value Chain Disruptions and Firm Survival During COVID-19: An Empirical Investigation

Author:
Sasidaran Gopalan and Ketan Reddy
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Despite the rapid acceleration of countries participating in global value chains (GVCs) over the last three decades, global GVC participation rates have plateaued since the global financial crisis (GFC) and worsened with the onset of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The massive supply chain disruptions induced by the pandemic not only appeared to expose the vulnerabilities of GVCs, largely because of concentration risks, but also contributed to a dramatic decline in trade flows globally. As countries around the world emerge from the shadows of the pandemic, there is growing academic and policy interest in deciphering how countries should build effective strategies that facilitate firm survival, especially viewed from the lens of resilience and robustness. Considering this background, in this paper, we propose to make a twofold contribution to this literature. First, we undertake a comprehensive firm-level investigation (in a cross-country setting) to ascertain whether firms engaged in GVCs relative to non-GVC firms exhibited better survival instincts during the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, we uncover the heterogeneity of the shock across sectors and industries, considering the varied sectoral/industrial exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic. We document that GVC firms showcased greater robustness and resilience during the pandemic phase compared with other firms. Our results also show that the degree of resilience and robustness varies significantly by industry.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Trade, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

55. Is Feminist Foreign Policy driving progress for women’s representation in diplomacy?

Author:
Caroline Green, Marta Kozielska, and Karen E. Smith
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
Building on an October 2022 Women in Diplomacy online event, this Strategic Update assesses the implications of feminist foreign policy (FFP) adoption for driving progress on improving women’s representation in diplomacy. Tracking the spread of FFPs globally and the ministers responsible for implementation, this paper focuses on their potential for improving or strengthening the role of women in diplomacy – including in ambassadorial and cabinet foreign-policy roles.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Women, Feminism, and Representation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

56. Pandemic-era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers

Author:
Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammad A. Yildirim
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time. The key mechanism, the international transmission of demand, supply and energy shocks through global linkages helps us to match the behavior of the USD/Euro exchange rate. The quantification exercise yields four key findings. First, negative supply shocks to factors of production, labor and intermediate inputs, initially sparked inflation in 2020–2021. Global supply chains and complementarities in production played an amplification role in this initial phase. Second, positive aggregate demand shocks, due to stimulative policies, widened demand-supply imbalances, amplifying inflation further during 2021–2022. Third, the reallocation of consumption between goods and service sectors, a relative sector-level demand shock, played a role in transmitting these imbalances across countries through the global trade and production network. Fourth, global energy shocks have differential impacts on the US relative to other countries’ inflation rates. Further, complementarities between energy and other inputs to production play a particularly important role in the quantitative impact of these shocks on inflation.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

57. How Pratham Learns While Scaling: A Case Study of Adaptive Design and Evaluation

Author:
Jossie Fahsbender, Siddhant Gokhale, and Michael Walton
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Developing scalable innovations is a central challenge in development. Organizations that succeed in scaling often prioritize measurement, learning, and evaluation, but how this is done is poorly understood. This paper explores the case of Pratham, one of the largest NGOs in primary education and an exceptional learning organization. While Pratham is renowned for its randomized control trial sequence with J-PAL, we underscore this is just one aspect of a wider array of learning activities. These include an iterative process to continuously refine and protocolize solutions as they scale, the use of on-field qualitative insights and quantitative tracking, open feedback channels between the field, state, and central offices, information exchange among content and evaluation teams, and a nationwide assessment of learning levels (ASER). The RCTs were effective because they were embedded within this broader learning process and culture. Pratham learns at three levels: learning to improve children's basic skills, learning as an organization about what does and doesn’t work, and fostering learning by others in the system. Its learning capacity is rooted in deep-seated values and a culture of openness, trust, problem-solving, and the freedom to experiment and learn from failure, inculcated and nurtured by its leadership. Throughout, we use the prism of an Adaptive Evaluation to provide a systematic framework for mirroring and understanding Pratham's organic learning processes (as affirmed by its own leadership). Pratham actively engages with the three main pillars of an Adaptive Evaluation, involving understanding systems, theorizing how to effect change, and iterating its designs. While Pratham’s culture will often not be transferable, the systematic analysis of how Pratham learns can provide a framework for other organizations aspiring to replicate Pratham's success as a learning institution.
Topic:
Development, Economy, Innovation, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

58. What Combination of Features Are Associated With Scalable and Sustainable Last-Mile Service Delivery Models? A Qualitative Comparative Analysis

Author:
Siddhant Gokale and Ojas
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This study explores the features of successful last-mile service delivery models for the poor. We define success in terms of two main outcomes — the scale of impact and the sustainability of the business model. Through a Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) of 35 organizations across a variety of sectors, such as agriculture, health, education, finance, energy, and water and sanitation, we arrive at a two-fold conclusion about the most prevalent combination of business model features associated with scale and sustainability. For achieving scale, a combination of four features was sufficient (but not necessary) — a pull product, an asset-light capital investment strategy, a narrow customer base, and a vertically integrated business model. For achieving sustainability, a wide customer base was sufficient (but not necessary). Together, these reveal a tradeoff between sustainability and scaling, especially around customer segments. The QCA is supplemented by an in-depth qualitative case study analysis of three selected organizations to uncover additional factors behind the success of alternate models that deviate from the QCA results. We find that clarity in vision, blending technology with people, evidence-driven decision-making and adaptive learning, and strong value propositions for multiple stakeholders were key characteristics of successful last-mile delivery models with features different from the QCA conclusions.
Topic:
Economy, Business, Investment, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

59. Process and Implementation Evaluations: A Primer

Author:
Patricia J. Rogers and Michael Woolcock
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Beyond assessing whether or not interventions have achieved their stated goals, evaluations can also provide greater understanding—in real-time and at completion—about how, where, for whom, over what time frame, and which aspects of an intervention may (or may not) have succeeded, and thus where improvements might be sought. Moreover, to the extent any intervention is only as good as its implementation, evaluations can also help identify where breakdowns in the delivery system may have occurred and spaces wherein frontline implementers were able to find innovative solutions to local (“binding constraint”) problems. Process and implementation evaluations thus serve the vital purpose of jointly promoting accountability and learning, thereby expanding the common perception of evaluations as external instruments of compliance and discipline to internal procedures for promoting partnerships, innovation, and improvement (organizationally or technically). In this chapter, we describe six different types of process and implementation evaluations and describe their respective strengths and weaknesses in various contexts, for various purposes. As part of collective efforts to enhance the effectiveness of all classes of interventions, impact and process evaluations should be regarded as necessary complements.
Topic:
Development, Accountability, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Global Focus

60. Estimation of Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Evolving Regimes

Author:
Jeffrey Frankel, Yao Hou, and Danxia Xie
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper develops a new econometric framework to estimate and classify exchange rate regimes. They are classified into four distinct categories: fixed exchange rates, BBC (band, basket and crawl), managed floating, and freely floating. The procedure captures the patterns of exchange rate dynamics and the interventions by authorities under each of the regimes. We pay particular attention to the BBC and offer a new approach to parameter estimation by utilizing a three-regime Threshold Auto Regressive (TAR) model to reveal the nonlinear nature of exchange rate dynamics. We further extend our benchmark framework to allow the evolution of exchange rate regimes over time by adopting the minimum description length (MDL) principle, to overcome the challenge of simultaneous two-dimensional inference of nonlinearity in the state dimension and structural breaks in the time dimension. We apply our framework to 26 countries. The results suggest that exchange rate dynamics under different regimes are well captured by our new framework.
Topic:
Economy, Econometrics, and Exchange Rates
Political Geography:
Global Focus

61. Adaptive Evaluation: A Complexity-Based Approach to Systematic Learning for Innovation and Scaling in Development

Author:
Siddhant Gokhale and Michael Walton
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Nearly all challenges in international development tend to be complex because they depend on constantly evolving human behaviour, systems, and contexts, involving multiple actors, entities, and processes. As a result, both the discovery and scaling of innovations to address challenges in development often involve changes in system behaviour or even system-level transformation. This is rarely a linear process over time and can result in unexpected outcomes. Existing evaluation techniques commonly used in international development, including Randomized Control Trials (RCT) and quasi-experimental methods, are good at assessing specific effects of interventions but are not designed for the change processes inherent to innovation and scaling within a system. There is a need to reconstruct how we use existing measurement tools, techniques, and methodologies so that they capture the complexity of the environment in which an intervention or change occurs. We introduce Adaptive Evaluation, designed to learn at various levels of complexity while supporting the transformation needed to foster sustainable change. An Adaptive Evaluation uses three main approaches to work with complex questions—systems diagnosis, theory-based assessment of change processes, and iterative designs. An Adaptive Evaluation typically builds hypotheses from field-based interactions, emphasizes learning over testing, advocates open-mindedness with techniques, and appreciates the value of dialogue and participation in navigating complex processes. It can use RCT or similar techniques to analyse specific processes within a system or a development cycle, but these are embedded in a broader approach to assessment and interpretation. It is designed to be flexible and adjust to shifting contexts. Finally, an Adaptive Evaluation can be applied at any stage in a complex intervention's lifecycle, from the interpretation of the system and change processes to rapid experimentation, prototyping, and testing of select interventions, and then adaptation to different settings for impact at scale. This paper provides the theoretical basis for an Adaptive Evaluation—the main approaches, core ideology, process, and applications.
Topic:
Scaling, Economic Complexity, Innovation, and Adaptive Evaluation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

62. Paradigm Shifts in Macrosociology

Author:
Renate Mayntz
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
This paper looks at changes in macrosociological paradigms for social development that traditionally stretch from the primitive society through the stratified medieval society to the image of a functionally differentiated modern society. Changing the perspective from a systems theoretical view of societies to an actor perspective, I focus on populations of individual actors and organizations as collective actors. Over recent decades, important structural changes in the nature of populations and of organizations have taken place in the Western world. The most important relate to economic globalization and financial internationalization. An increasingly flexible population and narrowly goal-specific organizations produce a situation of societal instability that appears to characterize the present, though its causes reach back half a century.
Topic:
Development, Conflict, Integration, and Financial Globalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

63. Top Wealth and Its Historical Origins: An Analysis of Germany’s Largest Privately Held Fortunes in 2019

Author:
Daria Tisch and Emma Ischinsky
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
Rising wealth inequality is both a topic in recent policy discussion and in the social sciences. Despite the general interest in wealth concentration, we know only little about the largest privately held fortunes. To help fill this gap we analyze the historical origins of Germany’s 1,032 largest fortunes in 2019. In particular, we identify the share of entrenched fortunes – fortunes which date back to the beginning of the twentieth century – and ask to what extent they differ from more recently established ones. Furthermore, we examine in an exploratory way if entrenched fortunes are connected to fortunes with more recent origins through family lines. We use a journalistic rich list published by the manager magazin in 2019, which we link with both rich lists from 1912/1914 and Wikidata. We find that about eight percent of today’s fortunes can be traced back to fortunes held by the same families in 1913. Regression analyses show that entrenched fortunes rank on average higher on the rich list than the remaining ones. Descriptive network analyses indicate that some of today’s largest fortunes are intertwined through marital lines, hinting at social closure at the top. Our findings indicate that the accumulation and perpetuation of fortunes over many generations is an important feature of top wealth in Germany.
Topic:
Inequality, Family, Elites, Wealth, Inheritance, and Network Analysis
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

64. Mapping the Cloud: Big Tech Taking the Sky by Storm

Author:
Cecilia Rikap
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
Here I map Big Tech clouds focusing on the making of asymmetric relations with the different type of involved organizations. Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Alibaba are cloud hegemons that control every inch of their clouds. The cloud is the main means of adoption of digital technologies. As such, developers and other firms offering their services on Big Tech clouds accept the rules of a game predefined by those few giants. They even need to get enabling credentials offered by another type of subordinate actor: the companies offering trainings to get mandatory certificates for joining the cloud as providers. At the other end, customers transition to the cloud often guided and hiring the services of outsourced sales forces. After presenting all these actors and their interplay, I focus on AI as a service to explain the negative effects of such a migration at the level of organizational learning and innovation. Customers’ technological subordination and reduced learning by doing, using and interacting in the cloud has triggered mitigation strategies but only large players can afford them.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Big Tech, Corporations, Cloud Computing, and Digital Learning
Political Geography:
Global Focus

65. Rentiership and Intellectual Monopoly in Contemporary Capitalism: Conceptual Challenges and Empirical Possibilities

Author:
Joseph Baines and Sandy Brian Hager
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
The concepts of rentiership and intellectual monopoly have gained increased prominence in discussions about the transformation of global capitalism in recent years. However, there have been few if any attempts to construct measures for rentiership and intellectual monopoly using firm-level financial data. The absence of such work, we argue, is symptomatic of conceptual challenges in delineating what precisely qualifies as rent, intellectual or otherwise. In place of static conceptions of rent and intellectual monopoly, we develop a dynamic framework for analyzing the processes of rentierization and intellectual monopolization and apply this framework to the analysis of the transformation of non-financial firms in the United States since the 1950s. We find that the timing and intensity of rentierization and intellectual monopolization differs significantly across sector and firm size and is heavily mediated by the uneven ramifications of government policy across companies and industries. Overall, our framework illuminates the variegated landscape of corporate power in the US, and offers a useful guide for critically interrogating rentierization and intellectual monopolization in other contexts.
Topic:
Political Economy, Capitalism, Monopoly, and Rentiership
Political Geography:
Global Focus

66. Same End By Different Means: Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta’s Strategies to Organize Their Frontier AI Innovation Systems

Author:
Cecilia Rikap
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
I combine quantitative methodologies and in-depth interviews to analyse United States Big Tech different strategies to organize and profit from their AI corporate innovation systems (CIS). I propose 1) “frenemies” for Microsoft, because even Chinese organizations and direct competitors integrate its CIS. 2) “University” for Google, whose AI strategy included leaving DeepMind autonomous to explore more fundamental AI but appropriation mechanisms are not translating into a clear business advantage. 3) “Secrecy” for Amazon, given its large concern with secrecty and profiting from AI. 4) And “application-centred” for Facebook; its AI CIS is the narrowest, mostly attached to its platforms.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Big Tech, and Corporations
Political Geography:
Global Focus

67. The International Monetary Fund and Neonatal Mortality Rates, 1985-2018

Author:
Shih-Yen Pan, Michael Ash, Bridget Diana, Lawrence King, Joseph Lavallee, Ta Minh Quan, and Elias Nosrati
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
In 2015, 193 nations committed to UN Sustainable Development Goal 3·2, which aims to reduce child mortality rates by 2030. Despite progress, challenges remain, especially in low- and middle-income countries. International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending programs may influence these outcomes through structural adjustments which prioritise macroeconomic stability over public spending. In this study, we examine the impact of IMF interventions on neonatal mortality, addressing concerns about existing analyzes with a novel statistical approach.
Topic:
Political Economy, History, Sustainable Development Goals, Macroeconomics, IMF, and Infant Mortality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

68. Exchange Rate Arrangements: Fix, Float, or Manage?

Author:
Nathaniel Cline, Carlos Schönerwald da Silva, and Matias Vernengo
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The paper tries to provide a concise summary of the main debates on exchange rate arrangements. It a simple taxonomy of exchange rate arrangements, fixed, flexible and managed, and a brief analysis of the main debates about their advantages and disadvantages. It emphasizes the different policy objectives of mainstream and heterodox schools of thought, suggesting that they tend to be more relevant than the specific defense of one particular exchange rate arrangement. In that sense, there are divergences on their preferences within schools of thought. The paper also discusses the causes of currency crises and the role of the dollar in the international monetary system.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Crisis Management, Exchange Rate Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:
Global Focus

69. Structural Changes and Dominance of Finance in Contemporary Capitalism

Author:
Sunanda Sen
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Structural changes in economies as have taken place in in majority of economies in terms of the sector-wise contribution to their aggregate output as well as employment include a rising share of the services sector, often exceeding one-half of the GDP. Services include, in addition to other activities, the high value financial activities, having weights disproportionately large. Thus the rising share of services to the GDP implies simultaneous rise in share of financial activities to the GDP as well. Analyses in literature explain structural changes by relative profitability as prime mover of changes, similar to financialisation of economies. In this a circuitous link between socio- political and economic-forces and the changing weight (power relations) can be observed. With capitalism taking a multi-layered structure, the path of finance to dominance may be along a variety of trajectories including vertical shifts from real to financial activities. The quantitative strength of finance is reinforced by socio political forces as alliances. The path may face a crisis led by fundamental uncertainty where agents are ignorant of the future, and the path keeps changing by actions of agents themselves. With knowledge unattainable, ‘conventions’ help agents, as Keynes held, the calming of nerves, forming collectively a “conventional process of expectation formation”. This forms a major theoretical innovation of Keynes which brings in expectation formation and decision making by agents based on custom, habit, tradition, instinct as relevant in a model of human agency faced with fundamental uncertainty.
Topic:
Political Economy, GDP, Employment, Capitalism, Finance, and Keynes
Political Geography:
Global Focus

70. Optimal Inflation Targeting With Anchoring

Author:
Thomas Michl
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper presents an alternative foundation to the standard quadratic loss function characterizing central bank inflation policy. The alternative treats high employment as a social benefit. In recognition of the inherent asymmetry of the output gap, two self-imposed constraints provide guardrails that rule out excess unemployment and opportunistic reflation. The loss function includes a novel reverse discounting mechanism that penalizes the bank for more sustained inflation gaps that could undermine confidence in the central bank’s target. In the absence of anchoring, the central bank is obliged to use economic slack to accomplish a disinflation but the presence of anchoring creates greater policy flexibility freeing it from the tyranny of the sacrifice ratio. The central bank’s optimal policy differs dramatically from the standard Taylor Rule recommendation in choosing policy plans with higher employment, in its willingness to overshoot inflation targets, and in avoiding excess unemployment, all while observing the discipline needed for successful inflation targeting.
Topic:
Economics, Employment, Banks, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

71. The Crisis of Capitalism, the Noun

Author:
Nancy Folbre
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper explores the challenges that feminist theory, stratification economics, and intersectionality pose to the characterization of capitalism as a unitary system. Attention to the structural basis for inequalities based on gender and race weakens traditional Marxian concepts of exploitation based on the appropriation of surplus value. On the other hand, the continuing relevance of many forms of collective conflict heightens appreciation of the ways in which capitalist institutions discourage the forms of cooperation necessary to address both ecological threats and shortfalls in care provision.
Topic:
Economics, Race, Capitalism, Intersectionality, Gender, and Feminist Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

72. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequality

Author:
Aaron Medlin and Gerald Epstein
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This study analyzes the impact of conventional expansionary monetary policy on wealth inequality in the United States from 1976 to 2012. We use the local projections instrumental variable (LP-IV) approach for our estimation method and employ two monetary shock series to identify the causal effect. High-frequency data is obtained on the distribution of real net wealth and the Gini index from two new sources: Realtime Inequality and the Federal Reserve’s Distributional Financial Accounts (DFA). We find that expansionary monetary policy has positive and persistent effects on wealth inequality over the medium term, in contrast to previous research. Specifically, an expansionary policy of 100 basis points cut in the policy rate increases the share of wealth for the top 10 and 1 percent and reduces the share for the bottom 50 and middle 40 percent of the distribution. Overall, wealth inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, increases around 0.005 on the Gini scale (between 0 and 1) with Realtime data and around 0.015 using DFA data. We also find that the effect size of expansionary policy on inequality varies over prior decades; the effects between 1976 and 1980 are smaller and transient relative to the periods since. We also find that expansionary policy increases wealth inequality regardless of the business cycle. However, its effects are more substantial during economic expansions. Lastly, we estimate the historical contribution of monetary policy to the variation in wealth distribution and find that it does account for significant variations in wealth distribution during certain periods of recent U.S. history.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve, Economic Inequality, and Wealth Distribution
Political Geography:
Global Focus

73. International Democracy Promotion in Times of Autocratization: From Supporting to Protecting Democracy

Author:
Julia Leininger
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The worldwide wave of autocratization is doing away with many of the democratic achievements made since 1989. Scholarship on international democracy promotion is yet to theorise how democracy can be protected from autocratization. Such a theory must account for different democratic and autocratic trajectories as well as integrate theoretical approaches from international relations and comparative politics in the study of democracy promotion. However, such a combined perspective is still missing. One reason for this is that the field lacks a clear concept of “protection” and does not yet systematically integrate evidence from democratization research. This paper addresses this research gap. It is the first attempt to develop a concept theory of democracy promotion, which includes support and protection of democracy. Coupling this with a depiction of six phases of regime change, this paper makes a second contribution: based on the proposed conceptual and theoretical integration, it generates a series of testable anchor points for further empirical analysis on what strategies are most likely to be effective during the various phases of regime change.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, Regime Change, Democracy, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

74. Determinants of Social Cohesion: Cross-Country Evidence

Author:
Yabibal M. Walle
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Noting that few studies to date have investigated the determinants of social cohesion in a comprehensive and systematic manner, this paper examines the macro-level determinants of social cohesion using a panel of up to 92 developing and developed countries for the period 1990–2020. Employing the system GMM dynamic panel data estimator, which addresses endogeneity concerns by means of internal instruments, I find that the levels of education, government size, globalisation, and economic development have significantly positive effects on most dimensions of a country’s social cohesion. In contrast, inflation, corruption and income inequality are detrimental to social cohesion.
Topic:
Corruption, Development, Income Inequality, Inflation, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

75. The Technology of Terror: from Dynamite to the Metaverse

Author:
Christina Schori Liang
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Non-state actors have always been interested in obtaining and mastering innovative weapons. According to “lethal empowerment theory”, new technologies will be rapidly adopted and adapted by violent non-state actors when they are accessible, cheap, simple to use, transportable, concealable, and effective. Terrorists are interested in weapons that are useful in a wide range of contexts – “that magnify effects, are symbolically resonant and can be given to unexpected uses.” It is thus important to be vigilant in analysing how actors will leverage and innovate new technologies for malicious purposes, in order to confront the “unknown unknowns” and not repeat the mistakes based on a “failure of imagination”, as highlighted in the 9/11 Commission Report.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Terrorism, Governance, Social Media, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

76. Our Digital Future: The Security Implications of Metaverses

Author:
Jean-Marc Rickli and Frederico Mantellassi
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Although the concept of a metaverse or metaverses is not new, current developments in the creation of possible metaverses offer credible prospects of generating increasingly immersive digital experiences that will also provide people with more information, connections and knowledge than ever before. However, metaverses are also likely to exacerbate existing risks surrounding the increased digitalisation of our lives and the role of social media companies in our societies, such as the spread of disinformation or increased societal polarisation. Similarly, technology companies’capacity to collect private data and profile users will also increase. Growing levels of immersivity will reinforce risks such as increased digital crime or extremist radicalisation, but will also create new ones that pertain to cognitive manipulations. This could lead to the transformation of social organisations and a questioning of the legitimacy of traditional institutions. Metaverses also offer new dimensions for power politics and geopolitical confrontations, and a platform for conducting cognitive warfare. Responsible innovations and security-by-design must be the guiding principles of efforts to develop metaverses.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Social Media, Innovation, and Digital Culture
Political Geography:
Global Focus

77. Securing AI-based Security Systems

Author:
Sandra Scott-Hayward
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Fundamental weaknesses of AI include brittleness, embedded bias, catastrophic forgetting and lack of explainability. Although research is under way to address some of these issues, the adoption of AI techniques and models in security systems exposes potentially critical security systems to weaknesses/vulnerabilities such as these. Adversarial training is one strongly recommended approach to increase the robustness (i.e. reduce the brittleness) of the AI model. In this approach, the training dataset is extended to include adversarial examples representative of potential attacks on the system. However, the implementation of adversarial training is currently ad hoc. Given the evidence of AI weaknesses, the omission of adversarial training and similar hardening techniques for AI-based security systems is unacceptable. Standardised testing and evaluation of AI-based security systems is recommended. From a governance perspective, evidence of adversarial robustness evaluation should be a minimum requirement for the acceptance of an AI-based security system. The production of strong adversarial samples does not account for “black swan” events, i.e. random and unexpected events that have an extreme impact. Given that security systems tend to be designed to detect “old” or “known” types of attack, ways need to be found to manage the occurrence of “new” attacks.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

78. The White Paper on the Future of Environmental Peacebuilding

Author:
Oli Brown and Nicolucci-Altman-Giuliana
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The term ‘White Paper’ is typically used in government circles to denote a publicly available, balanced document designed to help readers make decisions. This white paper seeks to encourage debate and discussion over the challenges, opportunities, and possibilities for environmental peacebuilding in conflict-affected states and societies. The paper and compendium are the product of a global conversation about the future of environmental peacebuilding and they draw from extensive academic work and practical experience. This white paper is inspired by many voices. Though concise, the white paper hopes to emphasize the growing assortment of approaches, ideas and visions for the future of environmental peacebuilding. The white paper is divided into four parts. The first gathers perspectives on the global context of environmental peacebuilding. The second points to some of the key challenges to environmental peacebuilding practice, while part three highlights important opportunities to harness the environment for peace. The fourth presents an agenda for the future of environmental peacebuilding.
Topic:
Security, Environment, International Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

79. Peace and Security 2025

Author:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The exact nature of the peace and security environment of 2025 is, of course, unknown, but we have information available to us today and yesterday’s experience to guide us in our attempts to imagine what the key features of that environment might be. This teaches us that surprises will continue to happen. Our attempt to identify what 2025 will look like could simply stop here, and we could approach the next few years day by day and month by month, establish our strategic plans, and constantly adjust them in response to new circumstances as they arise. However, we can go a step further and use strategic foresight to help us creatively and systematically explore how that future may unfold and consider collectively the alternatives available to us for dealing with what happens and its implications. This publication takes the latter approach by asking the authors to determine a vision for particular global regions and realistically and concretely assess how we can achieve this vision (Part I), and present suggestions for how we as professionals in the peace and security domain can collaborate to respond as effectively as possible to the challenges of the next few years (Part II). In that sense, the analysis and suggestions presented here balance realism about the challenges ahead with a proactive and constructive perspective on how best to confront them. It is with this in mind that the subheading of this publication is “disrupted visions and resilient approaches”.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Peace, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Global Focus

80. Delay, Detect, Defend: Preparing for a Future in which Thousands Can Release New Pandemics

Author:
Kevin M. Esvelt
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The world is demonstrably vulnerable to the introduction of a single pandemic virus with a comparatively low case fatality rate. The deliberate and simultaneous release of many pandemic viruses across travel hubs could threaten the stability of civilisation. Current trends suggest that within a decade, tens of thousands of skilled individuals will be able to access the information required for them to single-handedly cause new pandemics. Safeguarding civilisation from the catastrophic misuse of biotechnology requires delaying the development and misuse of pandemic-class agents while building systems capable of reliably detecting threats and preventing nearly all infections.
Topic:
Security, Public Health, Pandemic, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

81. The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Global Sanctions Landscape

Author:
Ali Ahmadi
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The Russia-Ukraine conflict will accelerate the global trend towards increasing great power competition that pits the existing West-anchored world order against others, especially Russia and China. This new era will have significant implications for the global sanctions landscape as sanctions that have been effective in harming countries with smaller economies are increasingly focused on larger economic powers that are integrated into the global economy. This will carry a far greater risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the sanctions weapon, because larger economies like that of China have a greater capacity to overcome technology export restrictions and the US dollar’s centrality in global finance. While sanctions campaigns often seek to coerce the target state into policy modification, sanctions may be increasingly used for the purpose of economic containment by attempting to retard the long-term economic development of states. This may result in open-ended sanctions campaigns that will generate a new era of geoeconomics where sanctions risk factors become key to the design of business relationships and supply chains. The use of financial sanctions against larger economies will exacerbate already existing trends of de-banking and a decline in corresponding banking relationships. Technology sanctions and export controls will be increasingly central as sanction-imposing countries in the West seek to leverage their superiority in key emerging technologies against those they perceive to be their adversaries.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Sanctions, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

82. Food Insecurity Beyond Borders: Untangling the Complex Impacts of Ukraine War on Global Food Security

Author:
Jose Montesclaros and Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Conflict has historically influenced food insecurity within countries. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is of a different nature, as it is worsening food insecurity in other countries too, thereby undermining global food security. This NTS insight untangles the dynamics of conflict-induced food insecurity beyond borders amid the ongoing war. Today’s conflict poses an unprecedented challenge to global food security given its timing, with countries inheriting fiscal challenges from previous bouts with the COVID-19 pandemic; concurrent disruptions to food and energy supply chains; and worsening climate threats to agriculture. Should the war be protracted, the world risks further instability through cost-of-living crises and food price crises. World leaders should therefore carefully weigh these risks, as they deliberate their stances in putting an end to the war.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Food, Food Security, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

83. Is Doughnut Economics a Means Towards Achieving Planetary Health?

Author:
Jonathan Ramakrishna
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
With the advent of climate change, the global focus is no longer lingering alone on climate change mitigation and has shifted towards climate adaptation as well. The 2015 Paris Agreement’s target of restricting the average temperature rise in the 21st century to well below two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels is increasing unlikely, given the inaction of states and the global lack of progress in meeting Paris Agreement goals. As nations scramble to meet Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and effectively design climate policies, the global crisis has given rise to a new domain, Planetary Health. Planetary Health, an interdisciplinary field, is described as a solutions-focused discipline which aims to analyse, mitigate, and resolve human disruption to Earth’s natural systems in the new Anthropocene epoch. The Anthropocene epoch, on the other hand, is established as a geological climate where human activity is drastically altering earth’s systems to an extent that will be reflected in fossil records. Planetary Health inextricably links human health to the health of the planet and illustrates the interdependency of the two, and this relationship has been substantiated by findings which concur that countries with higher ecological threats concurrently experience greater social vulnerability. When climate-induced disasters occur due to human action, there are subsequent consequences on food, water, energy, and human security. The consequences are disproportionately felt by vulnerable communities in states that lack resources and capabilities to address the consequent impacts on human security, and climate instability is a driving force behind political instability. Thus, there is cause for concern not only for the planet’s health but also for human health as the environment’s health continues to dwindle in the Anthropocene Epoch. As such, the concept of Planetary Health is a response to threatened climate security and human security.
Topic:
Economics, Health, International Cooperation, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

84. A Study on the Effects of Multinational Production on Global and Domestic Value Chains Following Trade Restructuring and Corresponding International Economic Policies

Author:
Myoung Shik Choi and Hun Dae Lee
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Emphasizing foreign affiliates amid stagnant global value-chained trade, this study provides important evidence for measurable policies which should be taken dependent on the level of GVCs integration in shaping international trade flows and multinational production activity. The recent decreased share of value-added exports within gross exports represents characteristics of a wider value chained network. It is common not only for firms to increase their economic activities globally but also for oversea affiliates to operate as the linchpin between the international and domestic parts of value chains. Our findings suggest that foreign affiliate activity strengthens domestic value chains, thereby leading to the outcome of further growth in the host country, while domestic affiliate activity abroad strengthens global value chains which spur growth in the broader world economy. Based on empirical discussions centered on participating in GVCs, OECD high-income countries significantly integrated into GVCs will benefit from upgrading their GVCs policies such as capturing value-added in exports and building new technology or innovation. There is also a need to continue enforcing the domestic linkages of MNE affiliates, which contributes to growth and employment as they contract and cooperate with domestic firms. In addition, low-income countries not fully integrated into GVCs in the Asia-Pacific region may need to secure entry into existing GVCs with trade liberalization, while middle-income countries which have secured entry into GVCs may focus on enhancing competitiveness by increasing productivity and developing regional economic integration through forums like APEC.
Topic:
Multinational Corporations, Economic Policy, Free Trade, Industry, and Value Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

85. Regulating the International Digital Economy, with Trade and Innovation in Mind

Author:
Douglas Lippoldt
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The international digital economy is growing rapidly, and the fragmented governance framework is struggling to keep pace. Global entities such as the World Trade Organization and regional trade agreements offer a patchwork approach to governance. This paper illustrates the importance of governance in relation to private-sector innovation and recommends next steps to enhance governance, close gaps and promote further innovation. Better definition and international alignment of the framework for governance of digital trade and data could lead to greater privacy, trust and security.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regulation, Digital Economy, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

86. A Future Built on Data: Data Strategies, Competitive Advantage and Trust

Author:
Susal Ariel Aarsonson
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
In the twenty-first century, data became the subject of national strategy. This paper examines these visions and strategies to better understand what policy makers hope to achieve. Data is different from other inputs: it is plentiful, easy to use and can be utilized and shared by many different people without being used up. Moreover, data can be simultaneously a commercial asset and a public good. Various types of data can be analyzed to create new products and services or to mitigate complex “wicked” problems that transcend generations and nations (a public good function). However, an economy built on data analysis also brings problems — firms and governments can manipulate or misuse personal data, and in so doing undermine human autonomy and human rights. Given the complicated nature of data and its various types (for example, personal, proprietary, public, and so on), a growing number of governments have decided to outline how they see data’s role in the economy and polity. While it is too early to evaluate the effectiveness of these strategies, policy makers increasingly recognize that if they want to build their country’s future on data, they must also focus on trust.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Data, and Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

87. Rudiments of a Space Security Policy Framework

Author:
Richard J. Chasdi
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The commercial space industry is taking off, with a growing number of private companies sending people into orbit. Along with this growth in demand from businesses and consumers is the need for more space security and policy approaches to address the potential risks of space exploration. The Moon is currently the main target of future space missions because of its resources and its strategic location to support missions to Mars. International law can help mitigate threats, such as resource depletion on the Moon, which could lead to conflicts among stakeholders on Earth.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Space, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

88. A Digital Loonie among Many Digital Currencies: Prospects and Outlook

Author:
Pierre L. Siklos
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Global interest in digitalization is growing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and driving central banks to introduce retail central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The successful rollout of retail CBDCs will depend on each country’s institutional capacity and the scope of international cooperation and regulation. Retail CBDCs are unlikely to replace domestic currencies but instead complement notes and coins in circulation, offering greater convenience and lower transactions costs.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Currency, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

89. To Prevent the Collapse of Biodiversity, the World Needs a New Planetary Politics

Author:
Stewart Patrick
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The planet is in the midst of an environmental emergency, and the world is only tinkering at the margins. Humanity’s addiction to fossil fuels and voracious appetite for natural resources are accelerating climate change and degrading ecosystems on land and sea, threatening the integrity of the biosphere and thus the survival of our own species. Given these risks, it is shocking that the multilateral system has failed to respond more forcefully. Belatedly, the United States, the EU, the UK, and some other advanced market democracies have adopted more aggressive greenhouse gas reduction targets, but their ability to deliver is suspect, while critical emerging economies like China and India have resisted accelerating their own decarbonization.1 Even more concerning, existing multilateral commitments, including on climate change, fail to address the other half of the planet’s ecological crisis: collapsing biodiversity, which the leaders of the Group of 7 nations rightly call an “equally important existential threat.”
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Politics, Multilateralism, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

90. Reducing Pernicious Polarization: A Comparative Historical Analysis of Depolarization

Author:
Jennifer McCoy, Benjamin Press, Murat Somer, and Ozlem Tuncel
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The global rise of political polarization has fueled concerns about its detrimental impact on politics and society. From an increase in political violence to a decrease in the quality of democracy and governance, the threats posed by pernicious polarization—the division of society into two mutually antagonistic political camps—are diverse and acute. Determining how to reduce these tensions is therefore an urgent challenge. Using data on political polarization from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data set, this working paper assesses various instances of depolarization around the globe since 1900 and analyzes their long-term sustainability. Polarization is increasing worldwide. When broken down by region, V-Dem data suggest that every region except Oceania has seen polarization levels rise since 2005. Africa has had the smallest increase during this period, although it has long had high levels of polarization. Rising polarization in Europe is being driven by deepening political divisions in Eastern and Central Europe, Southern Europe, and the Balkans. In the Western Hemisphere, the largest democracies—Brazil, Mexico, and the United States—are all experiencing extreme levels of polarization. East Asia’s polarization levels have traditionally been low, though increasing political tensions in places like South Korea and Taiwan are driving up the region’s score. And in South Asia, India’s polarization has skyrocketed since 2014. Jennifer McCoy Jennifer McCoy is a nonresident scholar in the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, where she focuses on political polarization and democratic resilience in the U.S. and around the world. To better understand the various paths by which polarized societies might overcome or reduce their political divisions, this working paper examines perniciously polarized countries that have successfully depolarized, at least for a time. Through a quantitative analysis of the V-Dem data set, this study identifies 105 episodes from 1900 to 2020 where countries were able to reduce polarization from pernicious levels for at least five years. These 105 episodes represent roughly half of the total episodes of pernicious polarization during the time period, thus indicating a fairly robust capacity of countries to depolarize. If considered in terms of country experiences rather than episodes (because many countries have experienced multiple episodes in a cycle of polarization and depolarization), then the data indicate that two-thirds of the 178 countries for which V-Dem provides polarization data have experienced one or more episodes of pernicious polarization, but only thirty-five countries (20 percent) have failed to experience any depolarization to below-pernicious levels. Given this apparent capacity among the majority of the world’s countries to depolarize from pernicious levels at least some of the time, this analysis seeks to identify the contexts and sustainability of those experiences and to encourage further research into their causal mechanisms and outcomes for democracies. The analysis offers a preliminary discussion of the potential meaning and normative implications of depolarization as a concept and policy goal. It then uses qualitative analysis to identify patterns in the contexts of various depolarization cases and gauge the sustainability of these trends. Most of these depolarization episodes were associated with dramatic changes in a country’s political life. An analysis of contextual factors showed that almost three-quarters of the cases came after major systemic shocks: a foreign intervention, independence struggle, violent conflict, or regime change (primarily in a democratizing direction). In the remainder of cases, countries depolarized within a given regime structure, whether democratic or autocratic. Tellingly, the authors identified no cases of depolarization from pernicious levels among liberal democracies. This is because very few countries classified as full liberal democracies have ever reached pernicious levels; the United States stands out today as the only wealthy Western democracy with persistent levels of pernicious polarization. Just under half of all depolarizing cases were able to sustain depolarization for a decade or longer. In a second sizeable group of cases, countries managed polarization to some degree, either living with chronic near-pernicious levels after depolarizing, or else repolarizing to near-pernicious levels within ten years. Finally, 15 percent of the cases returned to pernicious levels within the first decade. Troublingly, when the authors analyzed the entire time period from 1900 to 2020, nearly half of the countries that had sustained depolarization or managed polarization for at least a decade later returned to pernicious levels of polarization. These outcomes illustrate the difficulty of sustaining low levels of polarization, and they indicate that a cyclical pattern of polarization, depolarization, and repolarization may be a characteristic feature of political life in many places. Only a fraction (14 percent) of cases resulted in sustained depolarization over the long term.The mechanisms and strategies that enable such sustained depolarization in democracies will be the subject of future research. But given the small number of democracies (eleven) able to accomplish this feat amid the larger pattern of cyclical polarization and depolarization, it will be crucial to also understand strategies of managing polarization at moderately high levels while avoiding democratic erosion, government dysfunction, or returns to pernicious polarization and potential violence.
Topic:
Politics, History, Polarization, and Society
Political Geography:
Global Focus

91. Governance for Resilience: How Can States Prepare for the Next Crisis?

Author:
Frances Brown
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The pandemic has presented policymakers with daunting, interlinked, and often unprecedented challenges. From health emergencies that also upend economies to trade disruptions that also pose new multilateral diplomatic dilemmas, the pandemic has generated challenges that seem exceptional in both scale and degree of interconnection. Although the coronavirus pandemic has generated a dizzying series of harsh social, political, and economic firsts, such dilemmas will not be the last. Trend lines around a series of domestic and multinational governance issues, including climate change, migration, rising geopolitical tensions, and citizen alienation from governing institutions, suggest that complex, interlinked crises will be features of the future. While national and multilateral policymakers should work to alleviate the drivers of such crises, they must also strive to prepare their countries to adapt and recover from complex shocks. In short, they must try to build resilience. The need for resilience will be especially acute in developing and fragile states. These countries will need to respond to compounding shocks across multiple domains, without the head start that their developed-world counterparts enjoy. Equally, donors and policymakers from the Global North must also elevate resilience and adaptation as key components of their approaches to supporting fragile states. This call to bolster countries’ resilience is hardly new. Even before the pandemic, the policy arena featured increasing calls for resilience; now, the chorus has become almost deafening. Recent seminal policy and analytic documents—including the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s flagship report,1 the UK’s Integrated Review,2 and the U.S. Interim National Security Strategy3—have underscored that states’ resilience and capacity for adaptation will be key to their future success in the geopolitical arena. In donors’ peacebuilding and development policies, high-level emphasis on resilience has also swelled over the past few years, including in official communications from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,4 the United States government,5 and the European Union.6 In some development practitioner and civil society circles, the need for resilience is so frequently invoked that it sometimes borders on cliché.7 The increasingly ubiquitous recommendation to “bolster resilience” is valuable for at least two related reasons. First, it offers a more specific strategic objective than conversations around “state fragility” writ large, which have often been too broad to generate concrete policy responses. Second, recent, failed international statebuilding projects have underscored that state fragility is not to be “fixed”—instead, it is to be managed and mitigated.8 The emphasis on resilience thus marks a helpful shift away from maximalist policy framing and toward a more attainable one. But concrete insights on how developing or fragile countries actually achieve resilience are less clear and less common. Given the broad consensus that state fragility is deeply linked to governance, for many policymakers, good governance is central. To be sure, many other factors beyond governance—including demographic, geographic, military, and economic ones—affect a state’s resilience. But a country’s governance and political institutions generally undergird all other dynamics in determining how effectively that state can bounce back from setbacks. What exactly does the concept of “good governance for resilience” entail in practice? This paper surveys the evidence. Below, it reviews the governance-related characteristics and capabilities that affect a country’s resilience. For the purposes of this paper, resilience at the national level can be understood as a country’s capacity to respond to, adapt to, and grow from stresses and shocks.9 Resilience focuses on bolstering the overall performance of a system in the face of unpredictable and often interconnected hazards, making it different from risk management, which relates to specific hazards.10 A country’s resilience depends on the internal characteristics that allow for states and their institutions to navigate a variety of disruptions.11 An overarching insight from the evidence is that governance for resilience is complex and often multidirectional. Several characteristics, such as decentralization, have an ambiguous effect on resilience: they enable a country to withstand some setbacks but leave it more vulnerable in other ways. Still other characteristics—including whether a country is a democracy or an authoritarian political system—do not appear have a clear-cut effect on resilience. In contrast, a few governance “super-factors”—such as control of corruption, societal trust, and high quality political leadership—are exceptionally powerful in enabling a country to augment its resilience through multiple pathways. Finally, this paper considers the broader implications of governance for resilience as a policy agenda. The framing of bolstering countries’ resilience is a valuable one, but it also raises several vexing trade-offs and dilemmas. In particular, it prompts the question of whose resilience, in specific, it refers to, since resilience of state institutions does not always mean resilience of all parts of the population. Looking ahead, the policy refrain of “building resilience” in fragile and developing states, appealing though it is, should be refined to encompass these thorny realities.
Topic:
Governance, Crisis Management, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

92. Understanding and Responding to Global Democratic Backsliding

Author:
Thomas Carothers and Benjamin Press
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, democratic backsliding has become a defining trend in global politics. However, despite the extensive attention paid to the phenomenon, there is surprisingly little consensus about what is driving it. The most common explanations offered by analysts—ranging from the role of Russia and China and disruptive technologies to the rise of populism, the spread of political polarization, and democracies’ failure to deliver—fall short when tested across a wide range of cases. A more persuasive account of backsliding focuses on the central role of leader-driven antidemocratic political projects and the variety of mechanisms and motivations they entail. This paper identifies and analyzes three distinct types of backsliding efforts: grievance-fueled illiberalism, opportunistic authoritarianism, and entrenched-interest revanchism. In cases of grievance-fueled illiberalism, a political figure mobilizes a grievance, claims that the grievance is being perpetuated by the existing political system, and argues that it is necessary to dismantle democratic norms and institutions to redress the underlying wrongs. Opportunistic authoritarians, by contrast, come to power via conventional political appeals but later turn against democracy for the sake of personal political survival. In still other backsliding cases, entrenched interest groups—generally the military—that were displaced by a democratic transition use undemocratic means to reassert their claims to power. Although motivations and methods differ across backsliding efforts, a key commonality among them is their relentless focus on undermining countervailing governmental and nongovernmental institutions that are designed to keep them in check. As international democracy supporters continue to refine their strategies of responding to democratic backsliding, they must better differentiate between facilitating factors and core drivers. Such an approach will point to the need for a stronger focus on the nature of leader-driven antidemocratic projects, identifying ways to create significant disincentives for backsliding leaders, and bolstering crucial countervailing institutions. Moreover, they should deepen their differentiation of strategies to take account of the diverse motivations and methods among the three main patterns of backsliding. Only in this way will they build the needed analytic and practical capacity to meet the formidable challenge that democratic backsliding presents.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Populism, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

93. A CERN Model for Studying the Information Environment

Author:
Alicia Wanless and Jacob N. Shapiro
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After the Second World War, European science was suffering. Scientists were leaving Europe in pursuit of safety and work opportunities, among other reasons. To stem the exodus and unite the community around a vision of science for peace, in 1949, a transatlantic group of scholars proposed the creation of a world-class physics research facility in Europe.1 The grand vision was for this center to unlock the mysteries of the universe. Their white paper laid the foundation for the European Center for Nuclear Research (CERN), which today supports fundamental research in physics across an international community of more than 10,000 scientists from twenty-three member states and more than seventy other nations.2 Together, researchers at CERN built cutting-edge instruments to observe dozens of subatomic particles for the first time. And along the way they invented the World Wide Web, which was originally conceived as a tool to empower CERN’s distributed teams. Such large-scale collaboration is once again needed to connect scholars, policymakers, and practitioners internationally and to accelerate research, this time to unlock the mysteries of the information environment. Democracies around the world are grappling with how to safeguard democratic values against online abuse, the proliferation of illiberal and xenophobic narratives, malign interference, and a host of other challenges related to a rapidly evolving information environment. What are the conditions within the information environment that can foster democratic societies and encourage active citizen participation? Sadly, the evidence needed to guide policymaking and social action in this domain is sorely lacking. Researchers, governments, and civil society must come together to help. This paper explores how CERN can serve as a model for developing the Institute for Research on the Information Environment (IRIE).3 By connecting disciplines and providing shared engineering resources and capacity-building across the world’s democracies, IRIE will scale up applied research to enable evidence-based policymaking and implementation. Where CERN “exists to understand the mystery of nature for the benefit of humankind,” IRIE will exist to understand the mystery of the information environment for the benefit of democracies and their citizens.4 While the laws of physics change slowly, the conditions within the information environment are little understood and changing rapidly through the addition of new technology. Additionally, studying the information environment will require analysis of personal and at times sensitive data of internet users, increasing the need for international collaboration. As CERN did by inventing new collaboration tools, IRIE will leverage those same technologies to unlock the collective genius of researchers and practitioners from a variety of fields to strengthen democracy, alongside interested citizens who contribute their own data and expertise. While there are obvious differences between the field of physics and those emerging to study the information environment, aspects of CERN’s development can guide the creation of IRIE, an institution that can uniquely address the growing needs of researchers.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Research, Collaboration, Information, and CERN
Political Geography:
Global Focus

94. Revisiting ‘Minimal Nuclear Deterrence’: Laying the Ground for Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament

Author:
Tytti Erästö
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The prospects for nuclear arms control appear dim following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Instead of continued reliance on nuclear deterrence, the resulting new awareness of nuclear risks should inform bold nuclear disarmament measures in the long term. Drawing on previous debates on ‘minimal nuclear deterrence’, this paper argues that nuclear deterrence is possible at low numbers, and hence reliance on nuclear deterrence is not an obstacle to significant progress in nuclear disarmament. In particular, there is scope for reducing the vast Russian and United States nuclear arsenals, which risk planetary-scale destruction and stand in the way of multilateral nuclear disarmament. At the same time, recent military-technological evolution has raised the bar for minimal nuclear deterrence by questioning the survivability of nuclear forces. In addition to making recommendations on how to address such strategic challenges, the paper addresses some conceptual dilemmas traditionally associated with minimal nuclear deterrence.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Disarmament, Multilateralism, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

95. Chronic Crisis Financing? Fifty Years of Humanitarian Aid and Future Prospects

Author:
Gary Milante and Jannie Lilja
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This study maps trends of humanitarian funding in the context of total aid at the country level between 1969 and 2019 and estimates how these trends will change in the future. Historical trends show that the composition of aid has changed significantly in the last two decades: the humanitarian share of total aid to countries has increased from approximately 5 per cent in the 1990s to 23 per cent in 2019. Humanitarian aid was originally intended to respond to short-term emergencies, however, most of today’s humanitarian financing goes to protracted situations. Today many countries receive high levels of humanitarian assistance for a decade or longer, referred to in this paper as ‘chronic’ crises. More than half of total global humanitarian assistance (59 per cent) in the decade 2010–19 went to chronic crises, typically synonymous with conflict-affected, fragile and refugee-hosting settings. These chronic crises have become more prevalent since 1995. Conservative forecasts suggest that 71 per cent of humanitarian assistance over the next decade will continue to go to countries receiving high levels of assistance today. The study concludes with open questions to policymakers regarding the use of the humanitarian financing instrument. In chronic crisis settings, the strategic balance between humanitarian, development and peacebuilding financing and the interplay between these financing streams deserves attention.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Finance, Resilience, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

96. Gender Dimensions of Climate Insecurity

Author:
Elizabeth Smith
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Gender is a traditionally under researched dimension in scholarship on climate and security. However, as recent research has noted, it is a variable that cannot only shape how different groups of individuals are affected by climate-related security risks. Gendered norms and power structures can also increase or mitigate the likelihood of climate-related security risks. This SIPRI Insights contributes to the growing body of research on gender, climate and security by analysing the gender dimensions of the four pathways of climate insecurity featured in past SIPRI studies: (a) livelihood deterioration, (b) migration and changing mobility, (c) tactical considerations of armed groups and (d) elite exploitation and resource mismanagement. It reviews literature to highlight how gender can influence resilience and risk for different groups of men and women within the pathways. Where relevant, it also discusses how gender may serve as an instigating factor for the respective pathways. The paper stresses the need to critically understand the different and interlinked experiences of diverse groups of men and women in the pathway contexts and to ensure equal leadership and participation of all affected groups in addressing climate-related security risks.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Risk, Peace, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

97. Pathways for Reducing Military Spending in Post-civil Conflict Settings

Author:
Alexandra Marksteiner and Diego Lopes da Silva
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
High military spending is a common and consequential legacy of civil conflict. Reducing military spending can yield valuable economic gains and further contribute to the recovery of post-civil conflict societies. However, little is known about the conditions that enable military spending reductions in a conflict’s aftermath. This SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security tackles this issue and provides a comparison of post-civil conflict conditions and military burden—military spending as a share of gross domestic product—outcomes. It builds on a comparative analysis of 19 post-civil conflict episodes between 1970 and 2020, as well as three detailed case studies, to identify common pathways to post-civil conflict military burden reductions. This research finds that reductions in military burden usually follow peace agreements that encompass trustworthy and legitimate verification mechanisms, the strengthening of institutional means to resolve grievances, and improvements in relations with neighbouring countries.
Topic:
Finance, Military Spending, Resilience, Post-Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

98. Why Diagnostic Expectations Cannot Replace REH

Author:
Roman Frydman and Halina Frydman
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Gennaioli and Shleifer (GS) have proposed diagnostic expectations (DE) as an empirically-based approach to specifying participants’ expectations, which, like REH, can be applied in every model. Beyond its supposedly general applicability, GS’s formalization of DE implies that participants systematically and predictably overreact to news. Here, we present a formal argument that Kahneman and Tversky’s compelling empirical findings, and those of other behavioral economists, do not provide a basis for a general approach to specifying participants’ “predictable errors.” We also show that the overreaction of participants’ expectations is not a regularity, but rather an artifact of GS’s particular specification of DE.
Topic:
Economics, Models, and Predictability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

99. Why Diagnostic Expectations Cannot Replace REH

Author:
Roman Frydman and Halina Frydman
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Gennaioli and Shleifer (GS) have proposed diagnostic expectations (DE) as an empirically-based approach to specifying participants’ expectations, which, like REH, can be applied in every model. Beyond its supposedly general applicability, GS’s formalization of DE implies that participants systematically and predictably overreact to news. Here, we present a formal argument that Kahneman and Tversky’s compelling empirical findings, and those of other behavioral economists, do not provide a basis for a general approach to specifying participants’ “predictable errors.” We also show that the overreaction of participants’ expectations is not a regularity, but rather an artifact of GS’s particular specification of DE.
Topic:
Economics, Academia, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

100. After the Allocation: What Role for the Special Drawing Rights System?

Author:
Tobias Pforr, Fabian Pape, and Steffen Murau
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
In August 2021, the IMF made a new SDR allocation to help ease pandemic-induced financial strains in the Global South. This paper assesses the potential of the SDR system to address debt- related problems in global finance. We analyze the SDR system as a web of interlocking balance sheets whose members can use SDR holdings—the system’s tradable assets—for conversion into usable currency as a perpetual low-interest loan or to make payments to each other. Using original IMF data, we study how the system has been practically used since 1990. Though widely perceived as a solution in search of a problem in the post-Bretton Woods era, we find that the SDR system provides three mechanisms through which IMF members borrow and lend usable currency to each other, with different strings attached: first, transactions by agreement; second, the IMF’s core lending facilities for which the SDR system offers additional resources; and third, IMF-sponsored Trusts which seek to harness the SDR system for development purposes and are the basis for the current idea of ‘voluntary channeling’. Overall, given the SDR system’s idiosyncratic accounting rules, the new allocation can improve the liquidity position of a country and offer some limited avenues for sovereign debt restructuring but comes with new interest and exchange rate risks. Voluntary channeling cannot happen without a wealth transfer, neither the SDR allocation nor the use of Trusts can overcome this problem. Still, Trusts can be a useful instrument to help with debt forgiveness and to ensure that borrowed funds are used for their intended purpose.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus